SITREP for Friday, March 10, 2023

Only two quick updates today while I rebuild behind the scenes. Also, my apologies for a lot of back-and-forth recently in the formatting, etc, (including te weird tabulation of this post) while I’m working on the ‘plumbing’.

Banking Sector Wobbles
Two US banks were in significant distress at the of this week, spreading concerns across the global banking sector. The two banks, Silverlake Capital and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), have significant exposure to the tech and crypto industries. Silverlake shut down earlier in the week and SVB appears to be at significant risk of collapse at the time of writing. (See Bloomberg for more).

The concern being expressed now is that these two banks’ distress will reverse other institutions that are overexposed, triggering a wave of contagion beyond the tech industry. There are other macro-economic concerns underpinning what is a very rough Friday morning in the markets is.

The collapse of Silverlake and whatever happens to SVB this weekend may well come to nothing and settle down by next week but remember that the problems at New Century Mortgage and Bear Stearns in 2007 appeared to be isolated at the time. 

This would be a prudent time to huddle with your CFO and review your potential exposure to a banking run.

Kallas Wins in Estonia
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’ Reform Party won 32% of the vote in last weekend’s, election twice that of the far right EKRE party. This puts Kallas in a strong position to form a coalition and maintains her position of a strong supporter of Ukraine within the EU and NATO. (More in the NYT.)

On to the numbers.

90-Day Relative Values
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21-Day Trends
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Oil (Brent Crude)
Brent Crude is mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.

Iron and Steel
Iron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.

Market Volatility
Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.

Wheat
Wheat is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.

Shipping (FBX)
Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.

Election Watch

* 2 April: Finland, Parliament
* 30 April: Paraguay, President, Senate and Chamber of Deputies

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