Good morning.
I had to take a personal day on Tuesday, so it’s just Chad with the metrics today. Apologies, and I’ll be back with a proper SITREP tomorrow.
On to the numbers
(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)
Relative Values (90-Days)
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Trends (21-days)
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Brent Crude
Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.
Brent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation but may be moving up.
Iron and Steel
Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.
Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.
Market Volatility (VIX-US)
Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.
Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.
Wheat
Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous & noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.
(No change) Wheat remains very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.
Ocean Freight (FBX)
Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.
(No change) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.
Up-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos
Election Watch
February 12: Cyprus, Presidential run-offFebruary 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and Senate
Palate Cleanser
Like I said, just the facts today…