• Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥[
• Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥

Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥

Sometimes, things get worse… before they get worse.

Andrew Sheves Good morning. 

Welcome to a very late DCDR Research report for February 22, 2024

Why so late?

The DCDR analysis engine is working very well (honestly, it’s way better out of the box than I had anticipated). So, I’ll normally let the model do most of the work and I don’t need to add any commentary.

However, there are times when otherwise tenuous things feel like they’re converging. And even though the analysis model is very good in the near term, these are some longer-term threads, so some commentary is necessary. 

This week was one of those times. 

I apologize that I’ve been dithering over these assessments all week because I was worried that I was being overly pessimistic. (Plus, it took me 36 hours to write the piece on Israel.)

But that worry disappeared earlier today when I started seeing some of the events I thought might happen, happening. 

So, here are three things that I’m tracking as potential flashpoints.

A Confident Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin during his interview with Tucker Carlson on February 6, 2024. Image from Tucker Carlson Network/Handout

Putin continually stressing to Tucker Carlson that Russia had no territorial interest in Poland while painting Warsaw as a potential aggressor. 

Reported troop movements on Russia’s northwest border with the Baltic States.

Sabotage in Estonia and placing Prime Minister Kallas on a ‘most wanted list.

None of these events are enough by themselves to raise the alarm, but together, these sound like Putin is making a case for potential action in Poland or the Baltic states. These statements and actions mirror activity seen prior to the Russian invasions of Crimea and Ukraine.  

Previously, there was a sense that Putin would not want to open up additional fronts while the fighting in Ukraine drags on. But three recent events have likely emboldened Putin and may suggest a faster timeline.

The Russian advance into Avdiivka after months of stalemate is a significant victory for Russia in Ukraine.

The blockage of aid to Ukraine by Republicans in the US Congress is significantly weakening Ukraine. (And even if aid is approved, it may prove to be too late as Russia may carry the momentum from Avdiivka into the spring.)

Former President Trump’s comments questioning the value of NATO and seemingly inviting Putin to take action against Europe. 

Again, none of these alone would be enough to change the situation, but together, these will have increased Putin’s confidence. The very public murder of Alexei Navalny feels like a show of strength.

This confidence might lead him to test NATO’s resolve over Eastern Europe and the Baltics sooner rather than later. And what better time to pressure NATO than during a contentious and noisy election in the US? 

That’s not to suggest a full-on invasion is imminent or even likely in the short term. However, [increased sabotage](https://apnews.com/article/estonia-russia-sabotage-tension-hybrid-operation-629e777ac

Carpe tomorrow!