- Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela–Guyana and Israel – Gaza[
- Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela–Guyana and Israel – Gaza
Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela–Guyana and Israel – Gaza
DCDR Analysis for March 5 2024
Andrew Sheves Good morning.
**Welcome to the SITREP for March 5th, 2024. **
As promised, I’m going to try to add some more analysis in addition to the country stability reports. So here are three hot takes on Yemen, Venezuela —Guyana, and Israel — Gaza.
Houthis Sink First Ship Following Months of Attacks
🇾🇪 Yemen / Red Sea
DCDR Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual
US CENTCOM
MV Rubymar, a Belize-flagged, UK-owned bulk carrier, sank over the weekend, three weeks after being attacked off the coast of Yemen. The vessel was carrying 21,000 metric tons of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer, which is now leaking into the sea along with her supply of fuel oil, which is causing a reported 30 km-long oil slick in the narrow waterway.
On Saturday, US Central Command (CENTCOM) noted that not only is the MV Rubymar an environmental hazard, but she now presents a serious maritime hazard for vessels in the shallow waters of the Red Sea. (CENTCOM via X)
Meanwhile, The Houthis show no sign of letting up. Hussein al-Ezzi, deputy foreign minister in the Houthi-led government, said in a post on X. “Yemen will continue to sink more British ships, and any repercussions or other damages will be added to Britain’s bill…It is a rogue state that attacks Yemen and partners with America in sponsoring ongoing crimes against civilians in Gaza.” via Marine Link
DCDR Analysis
Supply chain delays will continue for the mid-term, and businesses should plan to maintain whatever contingencies they have in place through late Q2 or early Q3 of 2024.
Vessels should continue to avoid this area, no matter what assurances they may have or whatever protection is on board. The attack of a Marshall Island-flagged vessel, reportedly headed to Iran — The Houthis main backer — indicates that no vessels can be considered truly safe.
Venezuelan, Guyanan Leaders Meet, But Tensions over Essequibo Remain
🇬🇾 Guyana
DCDR Baseline stability rating: Guyana is Stable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Guyana is more turbulent than usual
🇻🇪 Venezuela
DCDR Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable
Based on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, St Vincent and the Grenadines’ Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, and Guyana’s President Mohamed Irfaan via Forbes
**In the space of three years, Guyana has gone from pumping 0 barrels of oil per day to exporting a peak of 637,000 barrels on January 31st **([Bloomberg](https://www.bl
Carpe tomorrow!