• Israel / Hezbollah Heats Up, Maduro Declares Victory and Bangladesh Protest Effects[

Decis Monday Briefing & Weekly Country Stability Matrix - July 29, 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

A Hezbollah attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday significantly ratcheted up tension on Israel’s northern border. Israel has yet to respond (as of Mondat am ET), but careful calibration is needed to avoid this boiling over into all-out conflict, which would be disastrous for Israel.

Meanwhile, despite the very strong exit polls for the González / Machado opposition, President Nicolas Maduro claimed an overwhelming majority in Venezuela’s election early Monday morning.

Finally, the effects of the crackdown on protests in Bangladesh are being felt in global supply chains and in the country’s foreign income.

But first, the stability matrix.

Reminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer

Is somewhere important to you missing? Hit ‘reply’ and we’ll get them added to the matrix. (Bulgaria is coming, Bill, promise…)

🗓️ Mark your calendar…

**Curious about how to use AI to extract greater insight from your data? **

](https://video.humanrisks.com/intelligence-vs-knowledge-driving/join) I’ll be joining my friend Mads from Human Risks next Monday to discuss how we are using AI to extract value from data and turn information into actionable intelligence. (You don’t think I do all the country stability ratings by hand, do you?)

The session is targeted at security risk managers but anyone who is curious how to use AI in this way will benefit from this session.

Learn more and sign up here

Events of interest that we’re monitoring.

🇻🇪 Venezuela

Venezuela is currently rated as critically unstable and more turbulent

Venezuala’s elections on Sunday took place peacefully but with widespread opposition complaints of interference and intimidation. Opposition polling early Sunday night suggested a split of 65% / 31% in favor of González, but President Maduro claimed victory early Monday morning with a 51% / 44% split in his favor.

Via @visegrad24 on [X.com](htt

Carpe tomorrow!