- 🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK[
- 🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK
🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK
Internal and External Pressures Are Pulling Israel Towards Instability
Andrew Sheves Good morning
The increasing pressure on Israel has made me question the ongoing rating of STABLE for several months now, but events over the last week — both internal and external — have led me to the conclusion that the country’s stability rating should be downgraded to WEAK.
(The Decis Intelligence summary is here)
Specific events of concern were.
Internal
The attack on the Sde Teiman detainee facility by a right-wing mob enraged at the detention of soldiers accused of prisoner abuse and torture.
This speaks volumes to the enormous internal divisions within Israel that preceded October 7th but are now significantly exacerbated. The fact that the mob attacking the IDF was led by a Knesset member and supported by other far-right politicians, including cabinet members, shows just how broad this division is.
External
The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran on Wednesday.
First, this ends any idea that there will be a negotiated settlement in Gaza as Haniyeh was seen as the only one who could potentially bring Yahya Sinwar and the military arm of Hamas into a deal.
Second. conducting the attack in Tehran provokes Iran and will force their new President, Masoud Pezeshkian, whose swearing-in Haniyeh was attending, to respond forcibly.
Moreover, rather than these events bringing things to a head, there is much more potential for destabilization.
(Note, we are not glossing over the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr early on Wednesday in Beirut. As a retaliation for Saturday’s strike on the Golan Heights by Hezbollah, this was as targeted and proportional a response as could be expected from Israel. So, by itself, this is not seen as a potential source of escalation although Hezbollah may become involved in whatever response Iran plans to the Haniyeh attack.)
More Instability Likely
There are too many unknowns to provide a detailed assessment of what will happen next, but the broad conclusion is that the Israeli War Cabinet is now not interested in any kind of negotiated settlement. Moreover, there is a willingness to take action that could significantly escalate the situation and little concern about provoking Iran into direct confrontation.
This causes several additional problems for Israel.
First, this stance makes ‘winning’ against Hamas much more difficult as 1) they are backed into a corner and 2) it requires Israel to wipe out the organization completely: an almost impossible task with an ideological movement.
Second, the hostages have been, to all intents and purposes, abandoned. This will create a long-t
Carpe tomorrow!