SITREP for Nov 13 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Something that’s not appearing in the news very much — and therefore slipping by the models — are a series of violent attacks in China including a mass stabbing and a motorist killing 35 people in a deliberate attack. Chinese authorities are quick to clamp down on any event that suggests a lack of control, and news of these events is suppressed, as reported by the BBC.

These events are being described by perpetrators as “taking revenge on society” and are taking place relatively frequently. This might not indicate some greater unrest in China, but at an individual traveler level, it means that a higher degree of caution is needed than the official statistics around crime and violence suggests.

(On a technical note - I’m working on ways to get more non-traditional news sources into the model to help provide a richer picture of events.)

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$68.78

💵 **USD:EUR **

$1.061 (Price of 1EUR in USD)

₿ Bitcoin

$87,915.06

As at Nov 13, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

Regional News Summary

In Singapore, the stock market is showing resilience amid global economic uncertainties, buoyed by strong fundamentals and a robust manufacturing sector. Analysts predict further gains, although external factors like fluctuating oil prices could pose risks. The recent U.S. presidential election results may also influence Singapore’s trade relations, with potential benefits from a more aggressive U.S. trade policy under a second Trump administration, as noted by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s readiness to engage with the new administration [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].

Meanwhile, Singapore is emerging as a key player in the global semiconductor industry, with Tata Group expressing interest in collaboration, further solidifying its position as a hub for foreign investment [SOURCE - The Hindu].

In China, the economic landscape is adjusting to the implications of the U.S. election, with the yuan losing value and stock prices fluctuating. The Chinese government is responding by lowering fuel prices amid global oil

Carpe tomorrow!