The Syrian opposition reaches Homs and weekend long reads

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. One big story to watch this weekend is what happens Syria.

Syrian government forces quickly retreated from the city of Hama on Thursday, allowing the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led opposition to quickly take the city. Alawites were seen fleeing the city in advance of the rebels but many others seemed to welcome the rebels. As of Friday morning ET, the opposition forces are now close to the nearby city of Homs, which is the last city between their north base and the capital, Damascus. [BBC Live Tracker]

Comment - Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight as there is nowhere for the Assad regime forces to fall back to. Assad and some high-level supporters will have the opportunity to flee to a sympathetic country and this may happen sooner rather than later.

However, many of the regime’s top commanders will be stranded along with many Alawites and there are a lot of scores to settle with the leaders of the Assad regime after so many years of brutal civil war. What happens in the long term is unclear, but in the short term, it is worth getting to know Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of HTS. [AL Jazeera Profile]

Clarification - Despite initial reports of sabotage, Finnish authorities said that damage to fiber optic cables earlier this week was accidental, not sabotage. [SOURCE - AP]

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Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger

Carpe tomorrow!