A Positive Note on Syria and Weekend Long Reads

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

This time last week, I wrote, “Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight”.

How wrong I was: Damascus fell with very little opposition, if any, and the transition to a caretaker government in Syria has been measured, calm, and nothing short of remarkable. The country has a long, complicated path ahead but the first few days of post-Assad Syria give hope for cautious optimism.

I wanted to flag not only my own mistake but also this positive news: there is a bias towards negativity in the news — ‘if it bleeds, it leads’ — and nihilism in geopolitics (often under the guise of realism), both of which are self-reinforcing and can become self fulfilling. So while a lot of the risk we cover is negative, it’s important to highlight opportunities where they arise and I think there is a lot to be hopeful for in Syria.

Some quick headlines.

The Arkan Army, an insurgent group in Western Myanmar, has seized the entire border between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Notably, this group is separate from the Rohingya separatists, who also oppose the country’s military rulers. [SOURCE - BBC]

As I write this: “French President Emmanuel Macron named centrist politician François Bayrou as the country’s new prime minister” [SOURCE - France24]

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Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this perio

Carpe tomorrow!