Tariff uncertainty, West Bank raids and Troop surge in Columbia.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🧾 Tariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high.

🇨🇳 Trump alluded to an additional 10% on Chinese imports without specifying a date and it’s likely that he’ll want the threat of tariffs on the table for any upcoming discussions with China where everything from TikTok ownership to Taiwan are up for discussion. [More - Bloomberg]

🇵🇸 Raids by Israeli security forces and settlers have increased in the West Bank since Sunday’s ceasefire in Gaza. Reports this morning are that 2,000 families have been expelled from the Jenin refugee camp while raids and attacks continue. [More - AlJazeera]

Note - For clarity, there are three drivers of violence in the West Bank currently: attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinian homes and farms which are in less-built up areas; raids by Israeli security forces in the larger towns and camps; and operations by the Palestinian Authority security forces against Palestinian militant groups.

🇨🇴 The Colombian government has deployed thousands of troops into the northwest region bordering Venezuela to deal with an upsurge in fighting between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which has killed over 100 and displaced tens of thousands more. [More - AlJazeera]

There was a glitch with the metrics this morning so it’s straight on to the stability ratings and news.

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Regional News Summary

Switzerland’s economy continues to show resilience, with a recent report indicating growth driven by investments in technology and innovation. The adoption of a new Bankruptcies bill aims to provide debtors with rehabilitation opportunities, reflecting a commitment to economic recovery amids

Carpe tomorrow!