Tariffs Kick In, Oil Production Increase and Gaza Ceasefire in Danger

Andrew Sheves

Good morning.

Three quick headlines worth tracking.

**President Trump Confirms Canada, Mexico and Chinese Tariffs. **

🛑 Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect Tuesday, with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, sending U.S. stock indexes sharply lower. Canada called the tariffs “an existential threat” with thousands of jobs at stake, while all three countries have promised retaliatory measures. The president dismissed economic concerns, suggesting foreign manufacturers should “build their car plants in the United States”. More - BBC

OPEC+ Announces Oil Production Increase

🛢️ OPEC+ will proceed with a 138,000 barrels-per-day production increase in April, the first step in restoring 2.2 million barrels daily by 2026 despite prevailing low prices. The surprise decision sent Brent crude tumbling 2.8% to a three-month low, potentially reflecting Saudi Arabia’s response to President Trump’s recent call to lower oil prices. The move comes despite projections of a 450,000 barrel-per-day global supply surplus later this year from non-OPEC sources. More - Bloomberg

**Gaza Ceasefire Unravelling **

🇵🇸 Israel has blocked all humanitarian aid to Gaza after the first phase of the ceasefire expired, demanding Hamas accept a new U.S. proposal that would extend the truce for 50 days in exchange for releasing half the remaining hostages. Hamas rejected this as “a blatant attempt to evade the agreement,” while Egypt and Qatar accused Israel of violating international law by “using food as a weapon.” With both sides preparing to resume fighting, pressure mounts from Israeli hostage families and the international community to prevent renewed hostilities. More - BBC

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Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas,

Carpe tomorrow!