US Recession Signals, Fighting Words from China and USAID Cuts Cause Starvation in Sudan

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇸 US Recession Signals Mount

JPMorgan’s market-implied probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 17% in November, with some indicators suggesting a 50% chance of economic contraction. The risk assessment comes amid weakening factory activity, declining consumer confidence, and market volatility triggered by Trump’s newly implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. While unemployment remains low at around 4%, economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate a 25% probability of contraction within a year as stagflation concerns grow. More - Bloomberg

🇨🇳 China Declares ‘Readiness to Fight’ US

China declared readiness to fight “any type of war” with the United States after both nations exchanged new tariffs, with Beijing imposing 10-15% levies on American farm products in response to Trump’s measures. The stark warning coincided with China’s announcement of a 7.2% increase in defense spending during the National People’s Congress, where Premier Li Qiang emphasized continued economic opening despite growing tensions. Relations have deteriorated rapidly despite initial optimism following Trump’s invitation of President Xi to his inauguration and their reportedly “great phone call.” More - BBC

🇸🇩 Aid Cuts Worsen Sudan Crisis

The Trump administration’s suspension of USAID funding has forced closure of 80% of Sudan’s community kitchens, exacerbating a catastrophic hunger crisis where 600,000 people already face famine levels. Local Emergency Response Rooms are scrambling to secure alternative funding from the diaspora and charities as both warring parties—the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces—continue to obstruct humanitarian access through bureaucratic impediments and violence. Without replacement funding, relief workers warn hundreds of thousands more Sudanese will die from malnutrition-related diseases as fighting escalates and displacement increases. More - Al Jazeera

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan

Asia News Summary

In a notable joint operation, Singapore and Thailand successfully apprehended a hacker known as “ALtdOS,” who was implicated in international data breaches. This arrest underscores the importance of international collaboration in combating cybercrime, a growing concern in

Carpe tomorrow!