Assad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans
Andrew Sheves Good morning.
Two stories to help you stay up on top of things.
🇸🇾 Assad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces
Assad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad’s fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced “coastal shield regiment” led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. More - Al Jazeera
🇪🇺 European Leaders Increase Defense Spending, Seek Independence from the US
European leaders greenlit an €800 billion defense spending plan and expressed continued support for Ukraine amid shifting US policy under President Trump. The proposal includes relaxing budget deficit rules for military investments and providing €150 billion in loans for defense projects. French President Emmanuel Macron sparked discussion by offering to extend France’s nuclear deterrence to European allies, drawing positive responses from Poland and Baltic states but criticism from Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Zelensky confirmed he will meet Saudi and US officials next week for potential peace framework talks. More - France24
Comment - this increase in European defense spending is what President Trump and other U.S. leaders have long advocated for, so it will be seen as a welcome step by many in Washington. However, the overall anti-European, America-first messaging from the White House and the abrupt suspension of military funding and intelligence sharing with Ukraine have led many to conclude that America is no longer a reliable ally.
It’s too early for definitive polling on this, but the sentiment that America is no longer a strong ally was already gaining traction in parts of Europe well before the recent turmoil over Ukraine.
Poll of Danish trust in the US as an ally vs a necessary partner 2023-2024
The collapse of trust in the US may be one of the most significant outcomes of Trump’s first 100 days and seems to foreshadow the end of NATO, where, ironically, the US is the only country to have ever invoked the Article 5 mutual defense pact after 9/11.
On to the ratings
Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary
More Unstable
🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿
Carpe tomorrow!