Tourist Attack in Kashmir, Trump Softens Tariff Stance on China and Ukraine Peace Talks Setbacks. Plus, how we’re putting the bots to the test.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇳** 26 Tourists Killed in Kashmir Attack**

Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir in the deadliest attack in 25 years. The Resistance Front who claimed the attack are believed to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. The attack, targeting mostly Indian civilians at the “valley of shepherds” tourist destination, threatens to escalate India-Pakistan tensions, with some experts describing it as “an act of war.” More - Al Jazeera

🚢** Trump Signals Tariff Pullback on China**

President Trump indicated he plans to reduce China tariffs substantially if a trade deal is reached, softening his previous hardline stance. Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged that the current standoff with China is unsustainable, though a comprehensive deal could take years. Chinese markets responded positively as Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated “the door for talks is wide open.” More - Bloomberg

From Bloomberg

🇺🇦** Ukraine Peace Talks Stuck**

London’s high-level Ukraine peace talks were downgraded after US Secretary of State Rubio and envoy Witkoff canceled their participation. The withdrawal followed Ukrainian President Zelensky’s rejection of potential US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea in exchange for ending hostilities. While lower-level discussions continue with retired Lt. Gen. Kellogg representing the US, the Ukrainian delegation arrived ready to pursue “a full and unconditional ceasefire.” More - Washington Post 

(Further complicating matters, there are also reports that the US is pulling back from efforts to investigate Russian war crimes in Ukraine. More - Washington Post)

We’re putting the bots to the test!

We’re taking part in the Metaculus AI Benchmarking series, tournaments that test the capabilities of AI agents in real-world conditions and compares their effectiveness to human forecasters and other AI agents.

It’s a great, real-world test of the agents’ effectiveness and will significantly enhance the scenario planning

Carpe tomorrow!