US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer, US Vetoes Gaza Ceasefire, Putin Threatens Ukraine Retaliation

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

⛏️ US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer

The US-China trade deal celebrated in Geneva is fraying over rare earth exports, with Washington accusing Beijing of violating promises to restore mineral flows while China maintains licensing requirements imposed in April. China agreed to suspend sanctions on 45 US companies for 90 days but never explicitly promised to reverse export licensing for seven critical rare earths used in electric motors and hard drives. US officials expected immediate resumption of exports after Geneva talks, but Chinese licensing approvals are coming through slowly as Beijing works through bureaucratic processes, with some companies now obtaining permits but exports remaining below pre-restriction levels. Full Explainer on Bloomberg

🇵🇸** US Vetoes Gaza Ceasefire**

The United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, standing alone against 14 other members who voted in favor as Israeli strikes killed nearly 100 Palestinians in one day. Washington rejected the measure because it didn’t directly link the ceasefire to hostage releases, while China accused Israel of crossing “every red line” of international law with US protection. The veto came as Israel warned starving Palestinians away from US-backed aid sites, declaring them “combat zones” after opening fire on crowds seeking food, killing over 100 aid seekers since operations began May 27. More - Al Jazeera

🇺🇦** Putin Threatens Ukraine Retaliation**

President Trump said Vladimir Putin warned of retaliation for Ukraine’s massive drone strikes on Russian airbases during a 75-minute call that Trump described as “good” but unlikely to lead to “immediate peace.” Ukrainian President Zelensky rejected Russian peace terms as an “ultimatum,” calling demands for territorial surrender and military restrictions unacceptable “theater” designed to delay Western sanctions. The exchange followed Ukraine’s biggest long-range attack of the war, which damaged strategic bombers deep inside Russia, while peace talks in Istanbul produced only agreement on a prisoner exchange involving 500 Ukrainian troops. More - Washington Post

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇸🇬 S

Carpe tomorrow!