- Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran[
- Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran
Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran
Decis Initial Assessment Dated 07:00ET Friday, June 13 2025
Andrew Sheves
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Iran will likely execute a calibrated multi-phase response combining direct military action, proxy activation, and accelerated nuclear development. The elimination of senior leadership creates dangerous unpredictability in Iranian decision-making. Regional escalation to broader conflict assessed as HIGH PROBABILITY (65-75%) within 30 days.
The most probable Iranian response trajectory shows 72% confidence for a three-phase escalation beginning with limited direct military response and proxy activation, followed by accelerated nuclear program restart and economic warfare, culminating in development of new command structures and regional diplomatic initiatives over 90 days.
Caveat: This is an initial assessment conducted while events were still unfolding. This analysis and research was conducted with artificial intelligence
Assessment note (added 0900ET June 13) Reports this morning indicate that not only was the US not involved in this attack, but that this attack took place despite US urging to Israel to not attack Iran at this point. This indicates a severe erosion of US soft power with respect to Israel and therefore these assessments were conducted by the models using a possibly outdated assessment of US influence. We will adjust settings for future analysis to account for a potential reduction in US influence and involvement.
**Tasking **
Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran
KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS:
What are the most likely Iranian response scenarios to Israel’s June 13, 2025 strikes, and what factors will drive Iranian decision-making in the next 30-90 days?
How will the elimination of senior Iranian military leadership and damage to nuclear facilities affect Iran’s strategic capabilities and regional proxy network operations?
What are the potential escalation pathways that could lead to broader regional conflict, and what are the key decision points for major regional actors?
At what point could the regime seem sufficiently weakened for domestic upheaval?
Table of Contents
Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Strike on Iran
Updated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025
Casualties and Leadership Losses
Israeli Response and Preparations
Regional and International Disruptions
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