- Analysis: +72 hours Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s Strikes Against Iran[
Decis Updated Assessment - Operation Rising Lion - 0600ET Monday, June 16 2025
Andrew Sheves
Updated Assessment on Iranian Response Scenarios as at 0600 ET June 16
Reminder
This is a rapidly developing situation and events may have changed since the time of this report. This report and the simulations were conducted using artificial intelligence. These include reasonable assumptions and best attempts to map out how events may unfold but there is significant uncertainty in these assessments. Full disclainers are contained at the end of the report.
Executive Summary
The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated dramatically since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 12–13, 2025. The operation began with a surprise Israeli airstrike aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, targeting both military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction on both sides.
1. Likely Iranian Response Scenarios
Direct Military Retaliation: Iran may continue ballistic missile strikes against Israeli cities and critical infrastructure, leveraging its remaining missile arsenal.
Proxy Activation: Iran could activate Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi Shia militias to open secondary fronts, forcing Israel to fight on multiple theaters.
Asymmetric Warfare: Increased focus on cyberattacks, sabotage, and terrorism targeting Israeli and Western interests globally.
Nuclear Acceleration: Iran may announce withdrawal from the NPT and accelerate uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels.
2. Impact on Iran’s Strategic Capabilities
Military: Loss of senior leadership and missile bases degrades Iran’s command-and-control and precision strike capabilities.
Nuclear Program: Damage to Natanz and Fordow slows but does not halt uranium enrichment; underground facilities remain intact.
Proxy Network: While degraded, proxies like Hezbollah and Iraqi militias can still inflict harm, though their effectiveness may wane without direct Iranian support.
3. Escalation Pathways
Hezbollah Activation: Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel could draw in Lebanon.
Houthi Escalation: Increased attacks on Red Sea shipping and Saudi/UAE targets.
US Involvement: Direct US military support for Israel could expand the conflict.
Nuclear Brinkmanship: Iran’s acceleration of nuclear enrichment could prompt further Israeli strikes.
Key Decision Points:
Iranian Supreme Leader’s willingness to escalate despite regime instability.
US policy on military support to Israel.
Saudi/UAE calculus on intervention vs. neutrality.
4. Domestic Upheaval Threshold
Economic Collapse: Iran’s economy, already strained, may face further instability if energy infrastructure is targeted.
Regime Legitimacy: Significant civilian casualties and military defeats cou
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