Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike, Brazil Orders Bolsonaro House Arrest, DRC-Rwanda Economic Framework Agreed

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🇮🇳 Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike

President Trump vowed to “substantially raise” tariffs on Indian exports beyond the current 25% rate over India’s purchases of Russian oil, saying New Delhi profits from reselling discounted Russian crude on global markets. India’s foreign ministry slammed the targeting as “unjustified and unreasonable,” noting it began buying Russian oil after traditional supplies were diverted to Europe and the US “encouraged such imports.” The escalation comes ahead of Trump’s August 8 deadline for Russia to reach a Ukraine truce, with secondary sanctions threatened against countries buying Russian energy as India has become a major buyer at 1.7 million barrels daily. More - Bloomberg

🇧🇷 Brazil Orders Bolsonaro House Arrest

Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest for allegedly violating restrictions by using allies’ social media accounts to spread messages encouraging attacks on the court and foreign intervention in Brazil’s judiciary. Judge Alexandre de Moraes also banned Bolsonaro from receiving visits except from lawyers, using mobile phones, and contacting his son Eduardo who has lobbied US officials on his behalf. The restrictions followed allegations Bolsonaro was encouraging Trump to interfere in his coup trial case, which Trump has called a “witch-hunt” and used to justify imposing 50% tariffs on some Brazilian goods despite the US having a trade surplus with Brazil. More - BBC

🇨🇩 🇷🇼 DRC-Rwanda Economic Framework Agreed

The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda agreed on an economic cooperation framework covering energy, infrastructure, mineral supply chains, national parks and public health as part of their June peace deal implementation. The US-brokered agreement affirms each country has “full, sovereign control” over natural resource exploitation and commits to ensuring minerals trade no longer funds armed groups while creating a world-class industrial mining sector. Human Rights Watch called it “a mineral deal first, an opportunity for peace second,” linking economic integration with billions in promised Western investment, though key security commitments remain unfulfilled 30 days after the original deal signing. More - Al Jazeera

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay

Regional News Summary

The imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by the Trump administration has ignited widespread protests across Brazil, with citizens expressing their discontent over the trade war [SOURCE - Economic Times]. In response, Brazil has engaged legal representation to contest what it deems an “injustice” and has requested exemptions for food products and the Embraer aircraft from the tariff hikes [SOURCE - Rio Times].

In the energy sector, Brazil is pivoting towards natural gas, with the largest plant in Latin America poised to transform the country’s energy la

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