I was thinking a while back about the idea of informed intuition: cases when you seem to be trusting your intuition but, in fact, you’re recalling deeper experiences and patterns that help with your risk-based decision-making. As I was building upon this idea, it became clear that I wasn’t onto any thing new but, instead, this has been explained in the work of, among others, Gary Klein and the RPD model. ...
In Amman, we’re in our 7th week of curfews, homeschooling, and weekend lockdowns, and things are starting to ease up so you can drive, the bigger stores are opening again, and in some people’s eyes, we can get back to normal. Unfortunately, as I’ve said previously, I don’t think we’re going back to how things were (‘normal’), and our ‘new normal’ requires some adjustments. Sadly, in some places, we’re treating the lifting of restrictions as an ‘all-clear’ which is only going to make things much worse. ...
I meant to write this piece a few months back, focusing on the first part. However, with the developments around COVID-19, I thought the second point was also relevant and timely. Plus, I thought it might do some good, but I’d love to know what you think. Please send me an email with your thoughts. Risk and security managers are often faced with the difficult task of defending the success of a risk management program with little or no supporting evidence. Ironically, the more successful a risk management program is, the less evidence there can be to demonstrate its effectiveness. So this success actually increases the perception that the program is unnecessary: after all, why have an expensive security program when you have few, if any, significant incidents? ...
Change is hard, and the transition from ‘peacetime’ to crisis is one of the hardest. Facing the spread of COVID-19, that’s where many of us find ourselves today: struggling to adjust to the reality of what we are facing. That might be personally, within your family, or at an organizational level. However, I can’t think of anywhere that’s going to escape this contagion so, no matter the level, we all have to transition and the faster, the better. ...
By now, you will probably have picked up that I enjoy a good old risk assessment. However, there are times when you don’t need a risk assessment to figure out what to prioritize. When something’s staring you in the face, it’s time to take action. So when a real crisis hits, the time for the risk assessment is over. So is the time to ‘wait and see.’ So is the time for asking, ‘why me?’ ...
In David McKee’s book for children ‘Not Now Bernard’, a young boy tries to warn his parents about a monster in the yard, but they’re too busy to pay attention. All they say is ‘not now Bernard’ and ignore him. In the end, the monster eats Bernard and moves into the house, but his parents are still too busy to notice. Look Out, Bernard! Illustration by David McKee I don’t think the author meant this to be a homily about risk management, but this will be a familiar refrain if you’re a risk manager. The slot for the update on the risk register gets pushed to one side. Or your data is dismissed out of hand because someone doesn’t like what they’re hearing. Or you simply get shouted down. ...
You need to fix a fatal assumption Most organizations and groups have contingency plans in place for when things go wrong. So do many families and individuals. They’ve spent the time thinking about what to do if someone gets sick, a product launch fails, a vehicle crashes, or there’s a fire. The problem is that most of these plans will fail because they’re based on a completely false and unrealistic assumption. ...
Effective execution is a matter of dealing with scarcity: a scarcity of time, a scarcity of resources, and scarcity of information (although too much information can also cause problems). Tools like a risk assessment help manage this scarcity by prioritizing things to allow you to better allocate resources on what’s most important. But there’s a hidden flaw in this process which often means that resources are misallocated, and the most important things are overlooked. ...
“Hi, I’m Andrew, and I have a weakness for data.” There, I said it. I love spreadsheets. I love national statistics. I love primary sources. I could probably have completed my Master’s dissertation without an extension if I had just accepted that cited quotes were valid instead of looking for all the original sources*. And I don’t need to read the last three years of a company’s annual reports before I have a 20-minute call with them. ...
A while back, I felt that pretty much everything was out of sync and I was highly disorganized. There was a growing list of undone things whether that was around the house, at work, with my family, or at the places where I volunteer. It was definitely time for a reorganization. A few weeks later, things were back in order (I even had time to write again), and a big part of my reorganization was refocussing on the systems I use for productivity. ...