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Good morning. Surprisingly, markets quickly shrugged off Moscow’s Friday announcement that Russia would cut oil production by half a million barrels per day (bpd), suggesting that Russia’s influence on oil markets is much diminished. Meanwhile, two stories on regulation are good reminders that rules should be followed but also that the communication of these rules can be complicated and subtleties can be lost. Unfortunately, ‘we were confused by your messaging’ isn’t an excuse for non-compliance, so it falls to leaders to ensure that staff understand, and meet, obligations. ...

Good morning. The readout after Wednesday’s meeting between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy was positive, giving some hope for smoother-than-anticipated negotiations around the debt ceiling. The Fed continued to raise rates but less quickly, which markets took as a sign that the worst was over. However, Mardi Gras is still three weeks away – and landing the US economy even farther off – so shouts of ‘laissez les bons temps rouler’ from Wall Street are premature. Finally, Kosovo is one of many seemingly small disputes that can cause oversized headaches and is therefore worth keeping an eye on. ...

Good morning. 🌐 A rapid-fire roundup of some of the big geopolitical issues today: Tunisia, the Turkey / Syria earthquake, Russian sanctions, the Nigerian Election, and Israel-Palestine. The Cyprus election run-off is this weekend and America will be watching a football game while eating a record number of nachos and wings. See you on Monday! 🇹🇳 Tunisia There have been no steps to address the lack of a decisive outcome in the election runoff that took place two weeks ago despite protests and complaints that the government of President Saied is illegitimate. Instead, the President has sanctioned a crackdown on the opposition, increasing the number arrested or charged with frivolous offenses and is describing the opposition on the terms of a “cancer” on the country. ...

GM and welcome to So What: a fresh perspective on an emerging risk that will add to your grey hairs. Let’s dive in. 839 words – 3 mins, 31 seconds read time TL;DR Container prices remain at record highsThis affects global shipping of all goods with an impact on supply chains and pricesThis looks set to continue through 2022 and maybe into 2023 so companies should plan accordingly.This also reinforces the dangers of globalization and just-in-time inventory which need to be reduced. ...

Good morning. First, a clarification **In yesterday’s piece on sovereign debt, I said that Secretary Janet Yellen had announced that the US would hit the debt ceiling in early June and she was implementing special measures to help manage that process. In fact, Secretary Yellen said that the US will probably hit the ceiling around January 19 (A.K.A tomorrow!) but that the “extraordinary measures [will] prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations”. These measures can be sustained until early June, after which it is unclear exactly when the US will run out of cash, although many economists believe that this will happen by August. ...

Good morning. It’s a bite-sized issue as there’s a lot to share today. Tanks are heading to Ukraine, the ECB has issued new climate metrics and the NYSE had some wild swings on Tuesday. (Oh, and Chad’s fully refreshed after his spa day so the metrics are back. ) Feedback so far is that quite a few folks seem to prefer having the commentary first but please use the poll to let me know what you think. ...

GM and welcome to So What: your daily snippet of risky goodness that adds one extra headache to your to-do list. (But you’ll read it right away tomorrow anyway.) Let’s dive in. 1685 words – 6 mins, 30 seconds read time TL;DR The UFLPA addresses US concerns about the use of the Uyghur as forced labor in China.Similar EU legislation is likely in the near future.UFLPA places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.Both importers and those who have Chinese goods in their supply chains should audit their supply chains and prepare for and adapt to any disruption.Over the mid-to-long term, companies should reduce their dependence upon goods and materials of Chinese origin and look for other parts of their supply chain that may be linked to forced labor.It places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items. ...

GM and welcome to So What: your snippet of risky goodness that (in this case) will bum you out before breakfast (you are reading this before breakfast, right?) Let’s dive in. 1,200 words, 4:48 reading time 1/5 of the world’s grains originate from Ukraine and Russia, meaning the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing a significant interruption to global food supplies. In addition to the detrimental effects on food security, this may also cause instability in some countries. Here’s why. ...

Good morning. Two quick updates today plus the customized risk / opportunity ratings. Click here to try out customized reports. Russia on the Offense Prior to February 24 Russia appears to be building up for a concentrated offensive in Ukraine to coincide with next week’s one-year anniversary of its invasion. Additional missile strikes took place on Thursday morning and Russian forces appear to be making progress in taking the city of Bakhmut which would put them within striking distance of other major cities in the northwest Donetsk region. See Reuters for more. ...

Good morning. Tunisia’s second-round voting had a similarly low turnout as the first round making it unclear what will happen next. Recent attacks in Israel, Palestine, and Iran signal a period of heightened tension that feels poised to boil over. Meanwhile, Czech voters clearly returned formed NATO General Pavel with 58% of the vote, signaling their preference to remain aligned with the West. On a (hopefully) positive note, China’s CDC declared that the current wave of COVID infections was coming to an end. ...