Welcome to the Friday, April 14, 2023 I’m on the road today, so it’s a Dragnet edition: just the key metrics today. If this is your first time receiving this email, greetings! These SITREPS (situation reports) contain updates on critical events and essential metrics for you to use in your decision-making. There’s a guide here and a detailed white paper about the small data approach to risk assessment here. On to the numbers. ...
Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, April 7, 2023. It’s Passover, Easter, and Ramadan this week so a good number of you will be celebrating this weekend. (And if none of those is your thing, today is also National Beer Day. ) Chag Pesach Sameach, Happy Easter, رمَضَان كريم , and cheers (delete as necessary) But before you slack off for the weekend, let’s catch you up on some important goings on. ...
Welcome to the SITREP for March 31, 2023 We’re on a mini-vacation in Europe this week, so it’s a Dragnet edition today: just the facts! By the way, if you haven’t signed up for the CrisisDojo waitlist, you’re already missing out. The waitlist folks already got a sneak peek at the crisis standard builder and got a chance to build a 20-page, formal crisis management standard, just by answering a few simple questions. ...
(Read more about the origins of the risk metrics project here and here) The Risk Metrics White Paper The risk metrics project has come into sharper focus over the last couple of weeks and I’m now comfortable with the foundation of the system and how to manage the data. I’m still a little unsure as to which metrics will be most useful but I have an initial set of 12 to start with and user feedback will be the best judge of what’s relevant. ...
This post is an update on the risk metrics project I described a few weeks ago. You can read about the origin of the project and the intent here. If you recall, the underlying metrics for the project had to meet the following criteria: Broad, not narrow (meaning the metric has widespread effects) Publicly available Easily understandable Updated frequently Commonly used Unfortunately, for a lot of the data I looked at, I could get four out of five criteria but often one remained out of reach. Usually, this was frequency as some macro-indicators are published in annual reports, not weekly or monthly. However, for a macro trend such as literacy rates, a year-on-year measurement is sufficient, which means that the final criteria could read regular or frequent. ...
Full disclosure: this is me working through an idea in public but, if you’ve been reading my stuff for a while, you’ll know that the blog and email are often me thinking out loud, trying out ideas to see what sticks. In this case, it’s not a new idea but, instead, a rather old one. A 20-year-old one… Data-Driven Risk Management How this came about isn’t important, but since my first risk assessment, I’ve felt that there’s a need for some kind of simple math to underpin things and help with consistency. Eventually, that became the kind of thing you’ll have seen in the metrics and gradings work here. ...
“Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.” [W. Edwards Deming](http:// https://deming.org/deming/deming-the-man), US academic and father of the continuous quality improvement movement in the US.* A big part of the risk assessment process is the risk assessment, and a large part of that is usually the risk analysis. The problems is that this involves metrics and math which people often find challenging for two reasons. Firstly, the math can be fuzzy and complicated to follow. ...
When we are conducting a risk assessment, we need a way to assess, grade and order risks to allow us to use this information for decision-making and to prioritize our actions. This article outlines some basic techniques that can be used for risk assessment grading and matrics. These basic examples lay the foundation for more complex sets of metrics that can be adapted for your organization and the specifics of the assessment. An example of the metrics used in the r = tvi construct and the risk calculation tool are included along with links to online tools that you can copy and use in your own assessments. ...