[{"content":"Good morning\nI have some bittersweet news to share: yesterday was the last full SITREP.\nThat\u0026rsquo;s the bitter part.\nThe sweet part is that the SITREP is ending because Decis has just been acquired and we are becoming part of Hedron Analytics.\nHere\u0026rsquo;s the official announcement.\nI am delighted to announce that Decis Intelligence (Decis) is merging with Hedron Analytics, Inc. (Hedron), a company that shares our values, vision, and commitment to innovation and excellence in helping our customers solve their hardest problems. Hedron\u0026rsquo;s expertise in advisory services, professional services, and emerging technologies, combined with Decis\u0026rsquo; artificial intelligence (AI) decision-support and intelligence capabilities, opens extraordinary opportunities for growth, collaboration, and expanded support for our customers and partners.\nAs part of this transition, I will be stepping into the role of Hedron\u0026rsquo;s Chief Technology Officer (CTO) to lead the technology vision and drive product innovation. We are committed to ensuring a seamless transition and continuing the high level of service you\u0026rsquo;ve come to expect as we bring together our teams and enhanced capabilities.\nOn a personal note, Decis has been an incredibly rewarding journey but one that I didn\u0026rsquo;t undertake alone. I\u0026rsquo;m very grateful for your support and hope I can \u0026ldquo;pay it forward\u0026rdquo; in my new role.\nClick here to visit the Hedron Analytics Site\nThis is a tremendous opportunity and I am very excited about the work that lies ahead with the Hedron team.\nThat said, I\u0026rsquo;m sad to say goodbye to SITREP, which has been several years and iterations in the making.\nBut most of all I wanted to say thank you for your support of the SITREP and, for a few readers, sticking with me from much earlier versions of my newsletters: some going back to the earliest days of KISS risk management in 2017.*\nThank you\nCarpe tomorrow!\nIf you missed those early days, you can see all the old posts over on the andrewsheves [dot] com site. It\u0026rsquo;s quite the timemachine!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/16/decis-is-now-part-of-hedron-analytics/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI have some bittersweet news to share: yesterday was the last full SITREP.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat\u0026rsquo;s the bitter part.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe sweet part is that the SITREP is ending because Decis has just been acquired and we are becoming part of Hedron Analytics.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg alt=\"Hedron Analytics logo\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/dc3f6420_Hedron_Analytics_logo.png\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere\u0026rsquo;s the official announcement.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eI am delighted to announce that Decis Intelligence (Decis) is merging with Hedron Analytics, Inc. (Hedron), a company that shares our values, vision, and commitment to innovation and excellence in helping our customers solve their hardest problems. Hedron\u0026rsquo;s expertise in advisory services, professional services, and emerging technologies, combined with Decis\u0026rsquo; artificial intelligence (AI) decision-support and intelligence capabilities, opens extraordinary opportunities for growth, collaboration, and expanded support for our customers and partners.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis is Now Part of Hedron Analytics"},{"content":"Good morning,\nUS-China Talks Enter Second Day US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for nearly six hours in Madrid Sunday, discussing TikTok\u0026rsquo;s looming deadline, trade issues and national security concerns as diplomacy intensifies between the world\u0026rsquo;s two largest economies. The talks aim to lay groundwork for a potential Trump-Xi Jinping meeting as soon as October during South Korea\u0026rsquo;s APEC summit, though veteran negotiator Wendy Cutler warned that \u0026ldquo;agreeing on deliverables for a possible Trump-Xi summit will not be easy\u0026rdquo; given China\u0026rsquo;s growing confidence it holds the upper hand. China launched two new investigations targeting US semiconductor companies just before the talks, including an anti-dumping probe on American analog IC chips, shortly after the US added 23 more Chinese firms to its entity list restricting businesses deemed contrary to national security interests. More - Bloomberg\nRomania Reports Russian Drone Incursion Romania became the second NATO country to report Russian drone incursions after F-16 jets detected an unmanned aircraft 20km from the Ukrainian border during Russian attacks on Danube infrastructure, though it didn\u0026rsquo;t fly over populated areas or pose immediate danger. President Zelensky called the breach \u0026ldquo;an obvious expansion of the war by Russia,\u0026rdquo; insisting Moscow \u0026ldquo;knows exactly where their drones are headed,\u0026rdquo; while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas condemned it as \u0026ldquo;yet another unacceptable breach of an EU member state\u0026rsquo;s sovereignty.\u0026rdquo; Poland responded by raising air defenses to highest readiness and beginning \u0026ldquo;preventative operations\u0026rdquo; with allied aviation, while the Czech Republic deployed three combat helicopters to Poland\u0026rsquo;s eastern flank, as Trump said he was \u0026ldquo;ready\u0026rdquo; to impose tougher Russian sanctions if NATO countries meet conditions like stopping Russian oil purchases. More - BBC\nPakistan Border Raids Kill 54 Pakistani security forces killed at least 35 Pakistan Taliban fighters in raids on three hideouts near the Afghan border, while losing 19 soldiers in fierce clashes across Bajaur, South Waziristan and Lower Dir districts in recent days. The Pakistan Taliban (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attacks as the military accused the group of using Afghan soil to stage operations and alleged Indian backing without evidence, while urging Kabul\u0026rsquo;s Taliban government to \u0026ldquo;deny use of its soil for terrorist activities against Pakistan.\u0026rdquo; The deadliest clash in months underscores Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s struggle with resurgent armed groups that have become emboldened since the Afghan Taliban\u0026rsquo;s 2021 takeover, with nearly 460 people killed this year in attacks by groups fighting the state, as residents report TTP graffiti appearing on buildings amid fears of the group\u0026rsquo;s return to controlling territory it once held during the height of the US-led war on terror. More - Al Jazeera\nGlobal Stability Ratings Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.\nAfghanistan is Critically Unstable Albania is Weak Algeria is Weak Andorra is Stable Angola is Weak Antigua and Barbuda is Stable Argentina is Weak Armenia is Weak Australia is Weak Austria is Stable Azerbaijan is Weak Bahrain is Weak Bangladesh is Weak Barbados is Stable Belarus is Weak Belgium is Weak Belize is Weak Benin is Weak Bhutan is Stable Bolivia is Weak Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak Botswana is Stable Brazil is Weak Brunei is Stable Bulgaria is Weak Burkina Faso is Unstable Burundi is Weak Cambodia is Weak Cameroon is Unstable Canada is Weak Cape Verde is Weak Central African Republic is Unstable Chad is Unstable Chile is Stable China is Stable Colombia is Weak Comoros is Weak Costa Rica is Stable Croatia is Stable Cuba is Weak Cyprus is Stable Czech Republic is Stable Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable Denmark is Stable Djibouti is Weak Dominica is Stable Dominican Republic is Weak East Timor is Stable Ecuador is Weak Egypt is Weak El Salvador is Weak Equatorial Guinea is Unstable Eritrea is Weak Estonia is Stable Eswatini is Weak Ethiopia is Weak Federated States of Micronesia is Stable Fiji is Stable Finland is Stable France is Weak Gabon is Unstable Georgia is Weak Germany is Weak Ghana is Stable Greece is Weak Grenada is Stable Guatemala is Weak Guinea is Unstable Guinea-Bissau is Unstable Guyana is Stable Haiti is Unstable Honduras is Weak Hungary is Stable Iceland is Stable India is Weak Indonesia is Weak Iran is Weak Iraq is Unstable Ireland is Stable Israel is Weak Italy is Weak Ivory Coast is Weak Jamaica is Weak Japan is Stable Jordan is Weak Kazakhstan is Stable Kenya is Weak Kiribati is Weak Kuwait is Weak Kyrgyzstan is Stable Laos is Weak Latvia is Stable Lebanon is Unstable Lesotho is Weak Liberia is Weak Libya is Unstable Liechtenstein is Stable Lithuania is Stable Luxembourg is Stable Macedonia is Weak Madagascar is Weak Malawi is Weak Malaysia is Stable Maldives is Stable Mali is Unstable Malta is Stable Marshall Islands is Weak Mauritania is Weak Mauritius is Stable Mexico is Weak Moldova is Weak Monaco is Stable Mongolia is Weak Montenegro is Weak Morocco is Weak Mozambique is Weak Myanmar is Unstable Namibia is Stable Nauru is Weak Nepal is Weak Netherlands is Stable New Zealand is Stable Nicaragua is Weak Niger is Unstable Nigeria is Weak North Korea is Unstable Norway is Stable Oman is Stable Pakistan is Weak Palau is Stable Panama is Stable Papua New Guinea is Weak Paraguay is Stable Peru is Weak Philippines is Weak Poland is Weak Portugal is Stable Qatar is Stable Republic of the Congo is Weak Romania is Stable Russia is Unstable Rwanda is Weak Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable Saint Lucia is Stable Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable Samoa is Weak San Marino is Stable Sao Tome and Principe is Stable Saudi Arabia is Weak Senegal is Stable Serbia is Unstable Sierra Leone is Weak Singapore is Stable Slovakia is Stable Slovenia is Stable Solomon Islands is Weak Somalia is Unstable South Africa is Weak South Korea is Stable South Sudan is Critically Unstable Spain is Weak Sri Lanka is Weak Sudan is Unstable Suriname is Weak Sweden is Stable Switzerland is Stable Syria is Critically Unstable Taiwan is Stable Tajikistan is Weak Tanzania is Stable Thailand is Weak The Bahamas is Weak The Gambia is Weak Togo is Weak Tonga is Stable Trinidad and Tobago is Weak Tunisia is Weak Turkey is Weak Turkmenistan is Weak Tuvalu is Weak Uganda is Weak Ukraine is Unstable United Arab Emirates is Stable United Kingdom is Stable United States Of America is Stable Uruguay is Stable Uzbekistan is Stable Vanuatu is Weak Venezuela is Unstable Vietnam is Stable Western Sahara is Weak Yemen is Critically Unstable Zambia is Weak Zimbabwe is Unstable Carpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/15/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-349f/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"us-china-talks-enter-second-day\"\u003eUS-China Talks Enter Second Day\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for nearly six hours in Madrid Sunday, discussing TikTok\u0026rsquo;s looming deadline, trade issues and national security concerns as diplomacy intensifies between the world\u0026rsquo;s two largest economies. The talks aim to lay groundwork for a potential Trump-Xi Jinping meeting as soon as October during South Korea\u0026rsquo;s APEC summit, though veteran negotiator Wendy Cutler warned that \u0026ldquo;agreeing on deliverables for a possible Trump-Xi summit will not be easy\u0026rdquo; given China\u0026rsquo;s growing confidence it holds the upper hand. China launched two new investigations targeting US semiconductor companies just before the talks, including an anti-dumping probe on American analog IC chips, shortly after the US added 23 more Chinese firms to its entity list restricting businesses deemed contrary to national security interests. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/us-china-officials-kick-off-economic-trade-talks-in-madrid\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Good morning,\nNepal Protest Death Toll Hits 51 Nepal\u0026rsquo;s anticorruption protest death toll reached 51 including 21 protesters, nine prisoners, and three police officers, while over 12,500 escaped prisoners remain on the run after jailbreaks during the chaos that saw parliament set ablaze and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resign. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki appears set to be appointed interim prime minister as she\u0026rsquo;s seen as an \u0026ldquo;anticorruption voice\u0026rdquo; acceptable to Gen Z protesters, though uncertainty remains whether she can serve without being a parliament member, potentially requiring dissolution of parliament or constitutional changes. The army imposed curfews and recovered over 100 looted guns as shops began reopening Friday with signs of normalcy returning to Kathmandu, while some escaped prisoners reportedly tried crossing into India where border forces apprehended scores, as Nepal faces prolonged political uncertainty in a country wedged between India and China that has struggled with instability since abolishing its monarchy in 2008. More - Al Jazeera\nChina Warns Mexico on Tariffs China urged Mexico to \u0026ldquo;think twice\u0026rdquo; before imposing tariffs up to 50% on Chinese cars and other products, calling any levies \u0026ldquo;appeasement and compromise toward unilateral bullying\u0026rdquo; from the US as President Claudia Sheinbaum prepares for North American free-trade talks. Beijing\u0026rsquo;s commerce ministry warned it would take \u0026ldquo;necessary measures to safeguard its rights and interests\u0026rdquo; over Mexico\u0026rsquo;s move to protect domestic industry under Trump\u0026rsquo;s protectionist pressure, as Chinese exports to Mexico have nearly doubled since 2016 when companies relocated operations there to avoid US tariffs. Bloomberg Economics warned Beijing will likely retaliate with reciprocal tariffs immediately but risks alienating partners when it critically needs allies, as China runs a $71 billion trade surplus with Mexico and accounts for 5% of Mexico\u0026rsquo;s copper ore imports in a tight global market. More - Bloomberg\nUkraine Launches Massive Russia Drone Attack Ukraine launched 221 drones against Russian territory in one of the largest aerial assaults since May, with more than half intercepted over Bryansk and Smolensk regions where Lukoil facilities were reportedly targeted, while a fire broke out at Russia\u0026rsquo;s largest oil terminal in Primorsk\u0026rsquo;s Baltic port. Seven people including five civilians were injured when a drone struck a bus in Bryansk, while operations at St Petersburg\u0026rsquo;s Pulkovo airport were temporarily suspended during the attack across at least nine Russian regions. The assault follows escalating Ukrainian strikes that have hit deeper into Russian territory targeting refineries and fuel infrastructure, with Ukraine disabling 20% of Russia\u0026rsquo;s oil refining capacity in August according to the White House, as Russian media warned petrol supplies were \u0026ldquo;near critical\u0026rdquo; with drivers facing rationing and soaring prices, while two civilians died in Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Sumy region from a Russian glide bomb strike. More - BBC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Algeria, Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic Of The Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, The Gambia, Togo, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia, Senegal, Sao Tome and Principe, Tanzania\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to be a focal point of global rivalries, particularly between the United States and China, due to its vast mineral resources. As demand for critical minerals and rare earths surges, the DRC has become a battleground for resource dominance. In response to China\u0026rsquo;s growing influence in the rare earth market, the Trump administration has announced plans to invest billions in U.S. rare earth production, aiming to reduce China\u0026rsquo;s market grip. This shift could significantly alter the global balance of power in the rare earth sector. SOURCE - Lowy Institute\nAmid these geopolitical tensions, peace talks between the Congolese government and the M23 rebel movement are set to resume in Qatar, as the humanitarian situation in eastern DRC deteriorates, leading to widespread displacement and suffering. The DRC\u0026rsquo;s prosecutor has also sought capital punishment for the former president over alleged ties to rebel groups, highlighting the ongoing political turmoil. SOURCE - SANA\nThe rivalry for the DRC\u0026rsquo;s resources has sparked a new commodity boom, with countries like Japan entering the fray to secure access to Africa\u0026rsquo;s markets and resources, further intensifying global competition. SOURCE - King World News\nIn Algeria, India is strengthening its defense ties through talks between General Anil Chauhan and senior military leaders, reflecting India\u0026rsquo;s strategic interest in bolstering cooperation with key African nations. SOURCE - The Hindu Meanwhile, France has returned looted human remains to Madagascar, a move that underscores the ongoing efforts of former colonial powers to address historical injustices. SOURCE - RT\nIn the energy sector, OPEC+ is considering unwinding production cuts, a decision that could have significant implications for Algeria, a major oil producer. SOURCE - Rigzone Concurrently, a report indicates that China is arming 44 countries, including several in Africa, raising concerns about its expanding military influence in the region. SOURCE - RT\nIn South Africa, the Reserve Bank\u0026rsquo;s push towards a cashless society is set to transform the financial landscape, while the Airports Company plans to raise $569 million to enhance infrastructure. SOURCE - The South African However, the automotive sector faces challenges, with Ford South Africa announcing layoffs amid a broader crisis in the industry. SOURCE - Yahoo Finance\nIn Nigeria, the government has secured long-term contracts for gas supply, a vital step for the economy, which is also grappling with a ban on the export of raw shea nuts to promote local processing. SOURCE - Times Live However, security concerns persist, with recent attacks in Zamfara state resulting in over 100 abductions and a cholera outbreak claiming lives. SOURCE - Japan Today\nSudan is facing a staggering humanitarian crisis, with 30 million civilians in need of assistance as conflict continues to ravage the country. The situation is particularly dire in Darfur, where recent violence has resulted in numerous casualties. SOURCE - Human Rights Watch Human rights groups are calling for urgent action to protect civilians facing starvation and other emergencies. SOURCE - UN News\nIn Zambia, President Hakainde Hichilema\u0026rsquo;s administration is making strides in economic development, although challenges remain in the Constituency Development Fund and mining pollution. SOURCE - Zambia News Diggers! The government is also promoting small and medium-sized enterprises as a backbone of the economy. SOURCE - Zambia News Diggers!\nWeekend Diversions There\u0026rsquo;s a lively debate going on about both more humanlike AI and anthropomorphizing / humanizing AI and this blog post from Mustafa Suleyman, one of the Deepmind founders, is worth a read. Importantly, this isn\u0026rsquo;t a purely technical debate: it\u0026rsquo;s something we need to discuss as a society. Otherwise the decision will be left to a handful of tech leaders. We must build AI for people; not to be a person | Mustafa Suleyman\nAll I hear when people explain quantum computers is \u0026ldquo;it\u0026rsquo;s a one and a zero at the same time\u0026rdquo; which I don\u0026rsquo;t find particularly helpful so I\u0026rsquo;ll be delving into this intro lecture to MIT\u0026rsquo;s quantum day. Quantum Computing Day: Introduction to Quantum Computing | MIT\nHave a great weekend!\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/12/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-480a/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"nepal-protest-death-toll-hits-51\"\u003eNepal Protest Death Toll Hits 51\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNepal\u0026rsquo;s anticorruption protest death toll reached 51 including 21 protesters, nine prisoners, and three police officers, while over 12,500 escaped prisoners remain on the run after jailbreaks during the chaos that saw parliament set ablaze and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resign. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki appears set to be appointed interim prime minister as she\u0026rsquo;s seen as an \u0026ldquo;anticorruption voice\u0026rdquo; acceptable to Gen Z protesters, though uncertainty remains whether she can serve without being a parliament member, potentially requiring dissolution of parliament or constitutional changes. The army imposed curfews and recovered over 100 looted guns as shops began reopening Friday with signs of normalcy returning to Kathmandu, while some escaped prisoners reportedly tried crossing into India where border forces apprehended scores, as Nepal faces prolonged political uncertainty in a country wedged between India and China that has struggled with instability since abolishing its monarchy in 2008. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/12/nepal-protest-death-toll-reaches-51-as-12500-prisoners-remain-on-the-run\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Good morning,\nJust the regional roundup today\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Maldives, Singapore, Taiwan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, inflation has eased to 0.6% in July, the lowest since January 2021, driven by declines in food, transport, and housing costs. Economic relief came as the stock market showed resilience. Payment institution 2C2P secured a major Singapore license, while Abaxx facilitated collaboration between the China City Gas Association and Asian partners. SOURCE - CNBC\nMalaysia launched RYT Bank, described as the world\u0026rsquo;s first AI-powered bank, marking a significant financial sector milestone. The country will chair the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) summit in October to strengthen Asian trade unity. Malaysia\u0026rsquo;s e-commerce revenue reached RM625 billion in the first half of 2025. SOURCE - Manila Times\nIn Vietnam, Typhoon Kajiki caused widespread flooding and landslides, leading to evacuations and significant infrastructure damage. The government mobilized resources to assist affected populations, illustrating ongoing natural disaster challenges in the region. SOURCE - Asiaone\nOn the diplomatic front, China actively engaged with various nations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized head-of-state diplomacy\u0026rsquo;s importance in U.S.-China relations. President Xi Jinping is set to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Modi advocating for global economic stabilization cooperation. SOURCE - ECNS China also urged the Philippines to refrain from escalating maritime tensions. SOURCE - Pakistan Today\nIn Afghanistan, the humanitarian crisis deepened as the UNHCR warned of dire conditions for 2.3 million refugees expelled from Iran and Pakistan. Rights groups urged Germany to relocate vulnerable Afghans from Pakistan. SOURCE - Khaama\nIn Indonesia, mass protests erupted over police brutality and corruption, triggered by a motorcycle driver\u0026rsquo;s death. Demonstrations highlighted social inequality and economic hardship, prompting the government to call for calm while restricting social media to quell unrest. SOURCE - Livemint\nThe Rohingya refugee crisis remained critical, with Bangladesh refugees demanding safe Myanmar returns on the eighth anniversary of their exodus. Bangladesh\u0026rsquo;s Chief Advisor stated the country cannot mobilize more refugee resources, emphasizing economic strain. SOURCE - Daily Excelsior\nOceania Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Australia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Palau, Tonga\nRegional News Summary Tensions between Australia and Iran reached a critical point as Australia expelled the Iranian ambassador amid allegations of state-directed antisemitic attacks. This unprecedented diplomatic move prompted reciprocal Iranian actions. Australia accused Iran of orchestrating antisemitic arson attacks. Israel claimed its Mossad agency uncovered an IRGC plot in Australia, but Australia dismissed these assertions, emphasizing its independent intelligence assessments. SOURCE - BBC\nAustralia Post suspended most parcel shipments to the United States due to tariff complications, impacting global carriers and small businesses. Australia is strengthening its partnership with India, with expectations of increased investment as both countries navigate shifting global trade dynamics. SOURCE - The Hindu\nPacific Green secured an AU$77 million debt facility aimed at accelerating battery energy storage system development in Australia, bolstering the renewable energy sector. SOURCE - Manila Times\nAustralia witnessed a surge in pro-Palestinian rallies reflecting public sentiment. The Australian government finalized a $400 million deal with Nauru to resettle individuals lacking legal rights to remain in Australia. SOURCE - ABC\nNew Zealand\u0026rsquo;s Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters unequivocally condemned Iran\u0026rsquo;s actions, marking a notable foreign policy shift reinforcing commitment to global peace and security. SOURCE - RNZ New Zealand ranked fourth most peaceful globally according to the Global Peace Index, surpassing major nations. SOURCE - India.com\nNew Zealand introduced a new visa for business investors targeting baby boomers to stimulate economic growth. Air New Zealand reported declining profits due to rising costs and maintenance issues. SOURCE - RNZ\nIn Fiji, Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka\u0026rsquo;s India visit strengthened bilateral ties, yielding agreements on healthcare, agriculture, defense, and renewable energy cooperation, emphasizing Indo-Pacific collaboration addressing climate change. SOURCE - Free Press Journal\nTuvalu faces existential climate change threats, with rising sea levels and increased natural disasters jeopardizing its existence. Country leaders called for global cooperation to address pressing issues and mitigate climate impacts on vulnerable nations. SOURCE - Al Jazeera\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/11/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-01f7/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eJust the regional roundup today\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"asia-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-stable\"\u003eMore Stable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo countries were more stable over this period\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"unchanged\"\u003eUnchanged\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Maldives, Singapore, Taiwan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"regional-news-summary\"\u003eRegional News Summary\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Singapore, inflation has eased to 0.6% in July, the lowest since January 2021, driven by declines in food, transport, and housing costs. Economic relief came as the stock market showed resilience. Payment institution 2C2P secured a major Singapore license, while Abaxx facilitated collaboration between the China City Gas Association and Asian partners. \u003ca href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/25/singapore-july-inflation-eases-to-0point6percent-below-forecast-lowest-since-jan-2021.html\"\u003eSOURCE - CNBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Good morning.\nHamas Claims Leaders Survived Israeli Strike on Doha HQ Israel conducted a strike on a Hamas residential compound in Qatar\u0026rsquo;s capital using 15 fighter jets that fired 10 munitions, resulting in five Hamas deaths including the son of chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. Hamas asserted that its negotiating team discussing Trump\u0026rsquo;s ceasefire proposal survived the operation.\nNetanyahu characterized the strike as \u0026ldquo;fully justified,\u0026rdquo; targeting individuals involved in organizing the October 7 attack. Qatar condemned what it called a \u0026ldquo;cowardly\u0026rdquo; violation of its sovereignty. The White House stated that bombing a sovereign ally \u0026ldquo;does not advance Israel or America\u0026rsquo;s goals,\u0026rdquo; though it acknowledged eliminating Hamas as \u0026ldquo;worthy.\u0026rdquo;\nThe strike provoked international condemnation from the UN, France, and the UK, all warning of potential regional escalation. Hostage families expressed deep concern that the operation could endanger their relatives. Trump reassured Qatar\u0026rsquo;s leadership that such incidents would not occur again on their territory, having previously directed his envoy to warn them of the impending attack.\nMore - BBC\nMacron Names Lecornu New PM President Emmanuel Macron appointed Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu as France\u0026rsquo;s fifth prime minister in two years. The 39-year-old longtime ally faces the task of passing a 2026 budget through a fractured parliament following Francois Bayrou\u0026rsquo;s removal.\nLecornu is the only minister who has served continuously since Macron\u0026rsquo;s 2017 inauguration, yet he confronts identical obstacles as his predecessors: lawmakers across the political spectrum reject Macron\u0026rsquo;s agenda and demand new elections. Marine Le Pen declared Macron had \u0026ldquo;fired his last shot,\u0026rdquo; making parliamentary elections inevitable. Socialist legislators refused to participate, characterizing the appointment as \u0026ldquo;a slap in the face for parliament.\u0026rdquo;\nFrance\u0026rsquo;s CAC 40 index has declined 3.2% while European counterparts gained 5.5%, reflecting business uncertainty stemming from political instability comparable to conditions following Macron\u0026rsquo;s dissolution of parliament.\nMore - Bloomberg\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Albania, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Andorra, Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, San Marino, Slovenia, Switzerland\nRegional News Summary Swiss Post has suspended shipments to the United States, driven by new U.S. regulations and the expiration of de minimis exemptions. Twenty-five nations have halted postal services to the U.S., citing noncompliance with international agreements.\nSwitzerland\u0026rsquo;s medtech sector is pursuing an EU agreement to maintain pharmaceutical and medical device supplies despite regulatory obstacles. The Swiss economy faces aviation sector pilot shortages and increasing rents that may pressure household finances.\nIn France, political instability escalates as Macron expresses full confidence in his embattled Prime Minister amid anticipated parliamentary confidence vote failures. France\u0026rsquo;s fiscal deficit requires innovative approaches while inflation moderates.\nChild homelessness has surged in France, prompting criticism of governmental inaction. Two teenagers have been apprehended for alleged plots targeting the Eiffel Tower and synagogues.\nFrance, Germany, and the UK plan to reimpose sanctions on Iran regarding its nuclear program\u0026ndash;a step Russia has condemned. France coordinates with Germany and Poland to counter Russian interference in Moldova.\nIn Eastern Europe, Russia has advanced significantly into the Dnipropetrovsk region, potentially altering conflict dynamics. Ukraine is establishing a lithium project with the U.S. to strengthen mineral agreements during the war.\nNorway and Germany are financing new Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine. NATO has committed additional financial backing, reinforcing Western commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty. Vice President Vance reported Russia has made \u0026ldquo;significant concessions\u0026rdquo; toward a peace agreement.\nMENA Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Jordan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates\nRegional News Summary Syria\u0026rsquo;s President Bashar al-Assad has announced \u0026ldquo;advanced negotiations\u0026rdquo; with Israel regarding a potential security arrangement. Recent Israeli military operations in Syria killed six soldiers near Damascus. Netanyahu expressed willingness to withdraw forces from Lebanon if Hezbollah disarms. U.S. officials are brokering discussions between Israel and Syria.\nSaudi Arabia and Syria have signed a historic $24 billion investment agreement across twelve sectors including energy and infrastructure. Syria is also strengthening health sector cooperation with Italy.\nSyria\u0026rsquo;s humanitarian crisis persists with record aid worker casualties, predominantly in Gaza. Some Syrian refugees are returning home, bringing personal belongings.\nEgypt is mediating Israel-Hamas negotiations and engaging UAE discussions to strengthen regional stability. However, UN officials have criticized Egypt\u0026rsquo;s arbitrary detention of critics and social media restrictions.\nYemen\u0026rsquo;s conflict intensified as Israeli airstrikes on Sanaa killed at least ten people, including the Houthi-backed Prime Minister, reportedly in response to missile attacks. Houthi rebels have pledged retaliation.\nIraq is considering deporting foreign extremists as U.S. military forces redeploy. Iraq and Iran are calling for coordinated Islamic action addressing Gaza\u0026rsquo;s crisis.\nThe international community is responding to Israeli military actions and their Gaza impact. Global protests against Israel have occurred, and various nations are reconsidering diplomatic relationships with Israel.\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/10/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-7324/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"hamas-claims-leaders-survived-israeli-strike-on-doha-hq\"\u003eHamas Claims Leaders Survived Israeli Strike on Doha HQ\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael conducted a strike on a Hamas residential compound in Qatar\u0026rsquo;s capital using 15 fighter jets that fired 10 munitions, resulting in five Hamas deaths including the son of chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. Hamas asserted that its negotiating team discussing Trump\u0026rsquo;s ceasefire proposal survived the operation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNetanyahu characterized the strike as \u0026ldquo;fully justified,\u0026rdquo; targeting individuals involved in organizing the October 7 attack. Qatar condemned what it called a \u0026ldquo;cowardly\u0026rdquo; violation of its sovereignty. The White House stated that bombing a sovereign ally \u0026ldquo;does not advance Israel or America\u0026rsquo;s goals,\u0026rdquo; though it acknowledged eliminating Hamas as \u0026ldquo;worthy.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Good morning,\nNepal Protests Kill 19, Parliament Stormed At least 19 people died and dozens were injured as police fired live rounds, tear gas and rubber bullets at young protesters demonstrating against Nepal\u0026rsquo;s social media ban and government corruption, with some forcing their way into Parliament in Kathmandu. Seven victims died at the National Trauma Centre with many shot in the head and chest, while thousands of students in school uniforms held signs reading \u0026ldquo;Shut down corruption and not social media\u0026rdquo; as Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli called an emergency cabinet meeting. The UN called for accountability following the bloodshed as analysts said Gen Z frustration with unstable governments, rampant corruption and limited job prospects had reached a \u0026ldquo;tipping point\u0026rdquo; after the government blocked Facebook, YouTube and X for failing to register with authorities, prompting what organizers dubbed \u0026ldquo;demonstrations by Gen Z\u0026rdquo; demanding change from a generation that \u0026ldquo;grew up with the optimism and dream of an inclusive new Nepal.\u0026rdquo;\nMore - Al Jazeera\nUS Stocks Near Highs on Fed Cut Bets Wall Street traders drove stocks close to all-time highs betting the Federal Reserve will cut rates, with the S\u0026amp;P 500 bouncing back after weak jobs data as hopes grow that policy easing will power corporate America without triggering recession. Markets are bracing for almost three Fed cuts this year starting in September, with Treasury yields at 2022 lows and the dollar retreating, though Thursday\u0026rsquo;s core CPI data could derail rate cut expectations if inflation surprises to the upside. Strategists see potential for continued gains with Goldman Sachs expecting small caps to catch up, while Morgan Stanley\u0026rsquo;s Wilson anticipates a \u0026ldquo;durable and broad\u0026rdquo; earnings recovery as the economy transitions to an \u0026ldquo;early cycle\u0026rdquo; stage, though some warn the market is \u0026ldquo;priced for perfection\u0026rdquo; and a September rate cut could become a \u0026ldquo;sell the news\u0026rdquo; event.\nMore - Bloomberg\nFrance Faces Fresh Political Uncertainty Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a confidence vote 364-194 in the National Assembly and will resign Tuesday, making him France\u0026rsquo;s fifth PM in less than two years as the left and hard-right united against his 44 billion euro austerity budget proposing to scrap two national holidays and freeze welfare payments. Bayrou staked his government on tackling France\u0026rsquo;s 3.4 trillion euro debt, warning that \u0026ldquo;submission to debt is the same as submission to arms\u0026rdquo; and current levels meant \u0026ldquo;plunging young people into slavery,\u0026rdquo; but opposition parties saw the vote as settling accounts with President Macron. Macron must now choose between naming another center-right PM, pivoting to the left to work with Socialists, or dissolving parliament for new elections, with Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, Labour Minister Catherine Vautrin and Finance Minister Eric Lombard mentioned as potential replacements amid calls for Macron\u0026rsquo;s own resignation.\nMore - BBC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Suriname, The Bahamas, United States Of America, Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Costa Rica, Dominica, Grenada, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s relationship with China is deepening, as the country has become China\u0026rsquo;s second-largest global investment target, reflecting growing economic cooperation within the BRICS partnership. This surge in investment comes amid rising tensions with the United States, which has attempted to block a $1.4 billion Chinese nickel deal in Brazil due to concerns over rare earth materials.\nIn trade matters, Brazil is addressing the impact of U.S. tariffs through plans to purchase domestic products affected by these duties, excluding coffee and beef. President Lula has also authorized retaliatory measures against the tariffs originally imposed during the Trump administration, highlighting ongoing trade tensions.\nBrazil\u0026rsquo;s economy faces challenges with a rising current account deficit despite foreign investment influx. This deficit is primarily driven by increased imports, particularly of capital goods, raising sustainability concerns.\nBrazil has downgraded its diplomatic ties with Israel following a dispute over the appointment of Israel\u0026rsquo;s new ambassador. This move signals tension between the nations, further complicated by the U.S. revoking the visa of Brazilian Justice Minister Ricardo Lewandowski amid escalating trade and diplomatic tensions.\nIn Mexico, the country has reported a record trade surplus with the U.S., driven by significant export increases. However, U.S. tariffs have adversely affected Mexico\u0026rsquo;s steel exports, which have declined by 16.6%. In response, Mexico is considering raising tariffs on Chinese imports.\nTensions between Mexico and the U.S. are escalating, with Mexican President Sheinbaum rejecting claims that Mexico City is controlled by cartels. This comes as U.S. Senator Marco Rubio plans visits to Mexico and Ecuador amid concerns about U.S. intervention in the region.\nNotorious Mexican drug lord Ismael \u0026lsquo;El Mayo\u0026rsquo; Zambada has pleaded guilty to federal charges in the U.S., which could provide the government substantial leverage in its ongoing crackdown on drug cartels.\nCanada\u0026rsquo;s economy has contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, marking its first decline in seven quarters, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports. A U.S. appeals court has ruled that these tariffs are illegal, which could have significant implications for trade relations.\nVenezuela\u0026rsquo;s President Nicolas Maduro has deployed 15,000 troops to the Colombian border amid rising tensions with the U.S., accusing it of planning an invasion. This military buildup is seen as a show of force, while Venezuelan civilians are joining militias to defend against perceived threats.\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/09/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-203b/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"nepal-protests-kill-19-parliament-stormed\"\u003eNepal Protests Kill 19, Parliament Stormed\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt least 19 people died and dozens were injured as police fired live rounds, tear gas and rubber bullets at young protesters demonstrating against Nepal\u0026rsquo;s social media ban and government corruption, with some forcing their way into Parliament in Kathmandu. Seven victims died at the National Trauma Centre with many shot in the head and chest, while thousands of students in school uniforms held signs reading \u0026ldquo;Shut down corruption and not social media\u0026rdquo; as Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli called an emergency cabinet meeting. The UN called for accountability following the bloodshed as analysts said Gen Z frustration with unstable governments, rampant corruption and limited job prospects had reached a \u0026ldquo;tipping point\u0026rdquo; after the government blocked Facebook, YouTube and X for failing to register with authorities, prompting what organizers dubbed \u0026ldquo;demonstrations by Gen Z\u0026rdquo; demanding change from a generation that \u0026ldquo;grew up with the optimism and dream of an inclusive new Nepal.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Good morning.\nMilei Suffers Buenos Aires Landslide Defeat Argentine President Javier Milei\u0026rsquo;s La Libertad Avanza party suffered a resounding defeat in Buenos Aires province, winning only 34% compared to 47% for the center-left Peronist opposition in a vote seen as a bellwether for October\u0026rsquo;s national midterms. Milei acknowledged the \u0026ldquo;clear defeat\u0026rdquo; but vowed no changes to his free-market economic program while promising \u0026ldquo;deep self-critique,\u0026rdquo; as investors brace for losses with the peso already sliding above 1,400 per dollar and bonds underperforming emerging-market peers. The libertarian president faced headwinds including a graft scandal involving alleged kickbacks benefiting his sister Karina, stone-throwing incidents during campaigning, and economic contraction for three straight months with formal job losses since January, while barred former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner celebrated from her balcony under house arrest after her corruption conviction. More - Bloomberg\nRussia Hits Kyiv Government Building Russia struck Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s main government building in Kyiv for the first time since the full-scale invasion began, damaging the cabinet of ministers building\u0026rsquo;s roof and upper floors during a record attack involving over 800 drones and missiles. At least four people died across Ukraine including a baby and young woman killed when a nine-storey residential building was hit in Kyiv, while 17 were injured in Zaporizhzhia strikes on homes and a nursery. President Zelensky condemned the \u0026ldquo;ruthless attack\u0026rdquo; as a \u0026ldquo;deliberate crime\u0026rdquo; occurring when \u0026ldquo;real diplomacy could have started,\u0026rdquo; while the symbolic strike on the heavily defended city center demonstrates Putin\u0026rsquo;s intensification of attacks despite recent peace talks, as 26 Ukrainian allies formally committed to deploying troops \u0026ldquo;by land, sea or air\u0026rdquo; for post-ceasefire security guarantees that Putin warned would be \u0026ldquo;legitimate targets.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\nIsrael Intensifies Gaza Bombardment Israel bombed the five-storey Al-Ruya Tower in Gaza City after issuing evacuation threats, bringing the total number of destroyed buildings to at least 50 during its campaign to seize the city as it killed 65 people across Gaza including 49 in the north. The tower housed 24 apartments plus shops, a clinic and gym, while Israeli forces also struck the al-Farabi school shelter killing at least eight including children, with witnesses reporting teams still searching rubble for missing people. Netanyahu claimed the military was \u0026ldquo;eliminating terrorist infrastructure,\u0026rdquo; though Palestinians warn no safe zones exist as Israel\u0026rsquo;s approved occupation plan has displaced 100,000 from Gaza City, while five more people including three children starved to death bringing malnutrition deaths to 387 since the war began, as Trump suggested a new \u0026ldquo;final warning\u0026rdquo; ceasefire proposal that Hamas said it welcomes efforts toward lasting peace. More - Al Jazeera\nGlobal Stability Ratings Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.\nAfghanistan is Unstable Albania is Stable Algeria is Weak Andorra is Stable Angola is Weak Antigua and Barbuda is Stable Argentina is Weak Armenia is Weak Australia is Weak Austria is Stable Azerbaijan is Weak Bahrain is Weak Bangladesh is Weak Barbados is Stable Belarus is Weak Belgium is Weak Belize is Weak Benin is Weak Bhutan is Weak Bolivia is Weak Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak Botswana is Stable Brazil is Weak Brunei is Stable Bulgaria is Weak Burkina Faso is Unstable Burundi is Weak Cambodia is Weak Cameroon is Weak Canada is Stable Cape Verde is Weak Central African Republic is Unstable Chad is Unstable Chile is Stable China is Weak Colombia is Unstable Comoros is Weak Costa Rica is Stable Croatia is Stable Cuba is Weak Cyprus is Weak Czech Republic is Stable Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable Denmark is Stable Djibouti is Stable Dominica is Stable Dominican Republic is Weak East Timor is Weak Ecuador is Unstable Egypt is Weak El Salvador is Weak Equatorial Guinea is Unstable Eritrea is Weak Estonia is Stable Eswatini is Weak Ethiopia is Unstable Federated States of Micronesia is Stable Fiji is Stable Finland is Stable France is Weak Gabon is Unstable Georgia is Weak Germany is Weak Ghana is Stable Greece is Weak Grenada is Stable Guatemala is Weak Guinea is Unstable Guinea-Bissau is Unstable Guyana is Stable Haiti is Critically Unstable Honduras is Unstable Hungary is Stable Iceland is Stable India is Weak Indonesia is Weak Iran is Weak Iraq is Unstable Ireland is Weak Israel is Weak Italy is Weak Ivory Coast is Weak Jamaica is Stable Japan is Stable Jordan is Stable Kazakhstan is Weak Kenya is Weak Kiribati is Weak Kuwait is Weak Kyrgyzstan is Weak Laos is Weak Latvia is Stable Lebanon is Unstable Lesotho is Weak Liberia is Weak Libya is Unstable Liechtenstein is Stable Lithuania is Stable Luxembourg is Stable Macedonia is Stable Madagascar is Weak Malawi is Weak Malaysia is Stable Maldives is Stable Mali is Unstable Malta is Stable Marshall Islands is Weak Mauritania is Weak Mauritius is Stable Mexico is Weak Moldova is Weak Monaco is Stable Mongolia is Stable Montenegro is Weak Morocco is Stable Mozambique is Weak Myanmar is Unstable Namibia is Stable Nauru is Weak Nepal is Weak Netherlands is Stable New Zealand is Stable Nicaragua is Unstable Niger is Unstable Nigeria is Weak North Korea is Unstable Norway is Stable Oman is Stable Pakistan is Weak Palau is Stable Panama is Stable Papua New Guinea is Weak Paraguay is Stable Peru is Weak Philippines is Weak Poland is Stable Portugal is Stable Qatar is Stable Republic of the Congo is Unstable Romania is Weak Russia is Weak Rwanda is Weak Saint Kitts and Nevis is Weak Saint Lucia is Weak Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable Samoa is Weak San Marino is Stable Sao Tome and Principe is Stable Saudi Arabia is Weak Senegal is Stable Serbia is Unstable Sierra Leone is Weak Singapore is Stable Slovakia is Stable Slovenia is Stable Solomon Islands is Weak Somalia is Unstable South Africa is Weak South Korea is Stable South Sudan is Critically Unstable Spain is Weak Sri Lanka is Weak Sudan is Unstable Suriname is Weak Sweden is Stable Switzerland is Stable Syria is Critically Unstable Taiwan is Stable Tajikistan is Weak Tanzania is Weak Thailand is Weak The Bahamas is Weak The Gambia is Weak Togo is Weak Tonga is Weak Trinidad and Tobago is Weak Tunisia is Weak Turkey is Weak Turkmenistan is Weak Tuvalu is Stable Uganda is Weak Ukraine is Unstable United Arab Emirates is Stable United Kingdom is Stable United States Of America is Weak Uruguay is Stable Uzbekistan is Stable Vanuatu is Weak Venezuela is Unstable Vietnam is Stable Western Sahara is Unstable Yemen is Critically Unstable Zambia is Stable Zimbabwe is Weak Carpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/08/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-b880/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"milei-suffers-buenos-aires-landslide-defeat\"\u003eMilei Suffers Buenos Aires Landslide Defeat\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eArgentine President Javier Milei\u0026rsquo;s La Libertad Avanza party suffered a resounding defeat in Buenos Aires province, winning only 34% compared to 47% for the center-left Peronist opposition in a vote seen as a bellwether for October\u0026rsquo;s national midterms. Milei acknowledged the \u0026ldquo;clear defeat\u0026rdquo; but vowed no changes to his free-market economic program while promising \u0026ldquo;deep self-critique,\u0026rdquo; as investors brace for losses with the peso already sliding above 1,400 per dollar and bonds underperforming emerging-market peers. The libertarian president faced headwinds including a graft scandal involving alleged kickbacks benefiting his sister Karina, stone-throwing incidents during campaigning, and economic contraction for three straight months with formal job losses since January, while barred former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner celebrated from her balcony under house arrest after her corruption conviction. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-08/milei-on-track-to-lose-buenos-aires-province-by-landslide\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Good morning\nIsrael Intensifies Gaza City Campaign Israeli forces control 40% of Gaza City as round-the-clock bombing reduces entire neighborhoods to rubble, killing 44 people Thursday including a family of five in a tent strike, with UNICEF calling it a \u0026ldquo;city of fear\u0026rdquo; trapping nearly one million residents. Military spokesperson said the operation will \u0026ldquo;continue to expand and intensify\u0026rdquo; as satellite images show over 52 Israeli vehicles forcing displacement toward the west, while hospitals overflow with casualties and al-Shifa\u0026rsquo;s morgue floor is strewn with white-shrouded bodies. US Secretary of State Rubio blamed France and other countries planning Palestinian state recognition for Israeli West Bank abuses, as the US sanctioned three Palestinian rights groups for supporting ICC war crimes investigations against Netanyahu, while EU official Teresa Ribiera called Gaza a \u0026ldquo;genocide\u0026rdquo; and criticized the bloc\u0026rsquo;s inaction as the death toll surpassed 64,000. More - Al Jazeera\nThailand Names Third PM in Two Years Business tycoon Anutin Charnvirakul became Thailand\u0026rsquo;s third prime minister in two years after his Bhumjaithai party broke from the Shinawatra-led coalition following Paetongtarn Shinawatra\u0026rsquo;s court dismissal for ethical violations over Cambodia border dispute handling. The 58-year-old dealmaker\u0026rsquo;s rise deals a significant blow to the powerful Shinawatra dynasty that has dominated Thai politics since 2001, with Thaksin fleeing to Dubai for medical treatment ahead of a court hearing that could return him to jail. Anutin\u0026rsquo;s 69-seat party governs only with backing from the progressive People\u0026rsquo;s Party, which demanded elections within four months and constitutional amendments, leaving the staunchly royalist leader with tied hands to navigate Thailand\u0026rsquo;s latest political crisis amid a pattern of court interventions and military coups removing multiple administrations. More - BBC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic Of The Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, The Gambia, Togo, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Djibouti, Mauritius, Senegal, Sao Tome and Principe, Tanzania\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues as a focal point of US-China rivalry due to vast mineral resources. As critical minerals and rare earths demand surges, the DRC has become a battleground for resource dominance. The Trump administration announced plans to invest billions in US rare earth production, aiming to reduce China\u0026rsquo;s market grip. This shift could significantly alter global power balance in rare earths, with implications for DRC\u0026rsquo;s international role. SOURCE - Lowy Institute\nPeace talks between the Congolese government and the M23 rebel movement are set to resume in Qatar, as the humanitarian situation in eastern DRC deteriorates, leading to widespread displacement and suffering. The DRC\u0026rsquo;s prosecutor has also sought capital punishment for the former president over alleged ties to rebel groups, highlighting the complex political landscape. SOURCE - SANA\nThe rivalry among global powers has sparked a new commodity boom, with countries like Japan entering the race for access to Africa\u0026rsquo;s resources to fuel economic growth. SOURCE - King World News\nAlgeria is strengthening its defense ties with India, as General Anil Chauhan, India\u0026rsquo;s Chief of Defence Staff, held talks with senior military leadership in Algeria. This collaboration is significant as Algeria plays a key role in African security dynamics. SOURCE - The Hindu\nAs the global energy landscape evolves, OPEC+ is considering unwinding production cuts, which could significantly impact Algeria\u0026rsquo;s oil sector, a major cartel player. SOURCE - Rigzone China\u0026rsquo;s military influence in Africa is growing, with reports indicating it is arming 44 countries, potentially affecting Algeria\u0026rsquo;s strategic calculations. SOURCE - RT\nIn South Africa, the economy is undergoing significant changes, with the Reserve Bank aiming to transition the country to a cashless society, potentially reshaping the financial landscape. SOURCE - The South African However, the automotive sector faces challenges, as Ford South Africa prepares to lay off over 470 workers amid broader motor industry crisis. SOURCE - Yahoo Finance\nIn Nigeria, the government has secured long-term contracts for gas supply, a crucial step for boosting the energy sector and diversifying the economy. SOURCE - Times Live However, the country is grappling with security concerns, including a deadly attack in Zamfara state that resulted in over 100 abductions. SOURCE - Japan Today\nSudan is facing a staggering humanitarian crisis, with 30 million civilians in need of assistance as the conflict continues to escalate. The situation is particularly dire in Darfur, where recent shelling by the Rapid Support Forces has resulted in numerous casualties. Human rights groups are urging the UN to take action to protect civilians facing starvation and other emergencies. SOURCE - Human Rights Watch\nIn Zambia, President Hakainde Hichilema\u0026rsquo;s administration is making strides in economic development, although challenges remain, particularly regarding the Constituency Development Fund and mining pollution issues. SOURCE - Zambia News Diggers The government is also promoting small and medium-sized enterprises as a backbone of the economy. SOURCE - Zambia News Diggers\nWeekend Diversions If you\u0026rsquo;re excited about robots, you\u0026rsquo;ll like this Wired article on advances Boston Dynamics has made with respect to only needing a single model to control a robot. This Robot Only Needs a Single AI Model to Master Humanlike Movements | Wired And if you want to see a robot doing a wide range of tasks, the Figure.ai news page won\u0026rsquo;t disappoint (If you are worried about The Terminator, you\u0026rsquo;ll maybe want to skip these.)\nThere\u0026rsquo;s a lot of debate as to whether the US Navy deployment off Venezuela is simply drug interdiction or a precursor to regime change. Luckily, some recent articles in Foreign Policy magazine really dig into the details.\nDeploying U.S. Vessels to the Caribbean Is a Show of Force | Ryan C. Berg and Eric Farnsworth Trump\u0026rsquo;s Gunboat Diplomacy Enters Uncharted Waters | Christopher Sabatini Have a great weekend!\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/05/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-d1f8/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"israel-intensifies-gaza-city-campaign\"\u003eIsrael Intensifies Gaza City Campaign\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsraeli forces control 40% of Gaza City as round-the-clock bombing reduces entire neighborhoods to rubble, killing 44 people Thursday including a family of five in a tent strike, with UNICEF calling it a \u0026ldquo;city of fear\u0026rdquo; trapping nearly one million residents. Military spokesperson said the operation will \u0026ldquo;continue to expand and intensify\u0026rdquo; as satellite images show over 52 Israeli vehicles forcing displacement toward the west, while hospitals overflow with casualties and al-Shifa\u0026rsquo;s morgue floor is strewn with white-shrouded bodies. US Secretary of State Rubio blamed France and other countries planning Palestinian state recognition for Israeli West Bank abuses, as the US sanctioned three Palestinian rights groups for supporting ICC war crimes investigations against Netanyahu, while EU official Teresa Ribiera called Gaza a \u0026ldquo;genocide\u0026rdquo; and criticized the bloc\u0026rsquo;s inaction as the death toll surpassed 64,000. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/4/city-of-fear-israeli-army-kills-dozens-in-advance-through-gaza-city\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Good morning,\nPutin Vows Military Resolution in Ukraine Russian President Putin declared Russia will \u0026ldquo;resolve all our tasks militarily\u0026rdquo; should Ukraine reject negotiations. Speaking from Beijing after China\u0026rsquo;s military parade, he rejected ceasefire proposals while suggesting Zelensky \u0026ldquo;could always go to Moscow\u0026rdquo;\u0026ndash;a proposal Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s foreign minister deemed \u0026ldquo;knowingly unacceptable.\u0026rdquo; Putin reiterated demands for Ukrainian NATO abandonment and cessation of alleged ethnic Russian discrimination, while refusing to cede occupied Donbas territories. Trump stated Putin \u0026ldquo;knows where I stand\u0026rdquo; and threatened additional sanctions beyond targeting India for Russian oil purchases. UK Defence Secretary Healey announced 1 billion pounds in seized Russian assets would fund Ukrainian military aid, describing it as \u0026ldquo;Putin\u0026rsquo;s dirty money returned with interest.\u0026rdquo;\nMore - BBC\nSudan Landslide Kills 1,000+ in Darfur A catastrophic landslide obliterated Tarasin village in Sudan\u0026rsquo;s Darfur region, killing over 1,000 people with sole survivor following severe rainfall in the remote Marrah Mountains. The Sudan Liberation Movement/Army controlling the area appealed for UN and international assistance recovering bodies. The disaster compounds Sudan\u0026rsquo;s humanitarian emergency amid a brutal three-year civil war creating a \u0026ldquo;black hole\u0026rdquo; for aid delivery. Famine has been declared in parts of Darfur as fighting escalates between government forces and RSF paramilitaries, with el-Fasher under siege as the last major army-held population center.\nMore - Al Jazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Brunei, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Vietnam\nRegional News Summary Singapore\u0026rsquo;s inflation declined to 0.6% in July\u0026ndash;the lowest since January 2021\u0026ndash;driven by food, transport, and housing price reductions. Financial sector developments include 2C2P securing major payment institution licensing and Abaxx facilitating Asia\u0026rsquo;s natural gas collaboration through China City Gas Association delegations.\nThomson Medical plans a $4.3 billion Malaysia mixed-use project investment, signaling robust cross-border enterprise activity. Singtel earned Company of the Year recognition across Singapore and Southeast Asia for managed services and connectivity leadership.\nSingapore and Malaysia signed a submarine rescue cooperation agreement reinforcing bilateral defense ties while addressing undersea infrastructure and cybersecurity matters.\nSingapore initiated construction on a trucked LNG loading facility while investigating unusual green canal water raising environmental concerns.\nVietnam faced severe Typhoon Kajiki impacts including flooding, landslides, evacuations, and airport closures. Simultaneously, the Vietnamese government is overhauling education systems targeting top-20 global ranking achievement by 2045, emphasizing teacher preparation and English proficiency.\nChina intensified diplomatic efforts with Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasizing head-of-state diplomacy importance for U.S.-China relations. President Xi Jinping planned meetings with Indian and Russian leaders highlighting cooperation for global economic stabilization. However, Japan lodged East China Sea disputed gas field protests against Chinese territorial claims.\nAfghanistan\u0026rsquo;s humanitarian crisis deepens as UNHCR warned of emergencies affecting millions of refugees expelled from neighboring countries. Rights organizations urged Germany to relocate Afghan refugees from Pakistan citing inhumane circumstances.\nIndonesia witnessed massive protests regarding police brutality and corruption resulting in authority clashes. President Joko Widodo called for calm while restricting social media mitigating unrest.\nMyanmar\u0026rsquo;s military government prepares for elections many deem illegitimate while declaring ethnic rebels terrorists amid rising tensions.\nOceania Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Australia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, New Zealand, Palau, Tuvalu\nRegional News Summary Australia-Iran tensions escalated dramatically with Australia expelling the Iranian ambassador over alleged state-orchestrated antisemitic attacks. Reciprocal Iranian diplomat expulsions followed. Australia attributed its decision to independent intelligence while dismissing Israeli Mossad involvement claims regarding uncovered IRGC plotting.\nAustralia Post suspended most U.S. parcel shipments due to tariff complications affecting international carriers and small enterprises. Australia seeks strengthened India partnerships anticipating increased investment amid tariff disruptions. Pacific Green secured a AU$77 million debt facility accelerating battery energy storage development strengthening renewable sector capacity.\nThousands participated in pro-Palestinian rallies demanding increased government action addressing diplomatic Israeli tensions. The Australian government finalized a $400 million Nauru resettlement deal addressing immigration challenges for legally-unrecognized individuals.\nNew Zealand\u0026rsquo;s Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters unequivocally condemned Iranian actions marking significant foreign policy realignment. New Zealand ranked as the world\u0026rsquo;s fourth most peaceful nation, surpassing China and the United States globally.\nEconomically, New Zealand introduced new investor visas targeting baby boomers stimulating growth and foreign capital attraction. However, Air New Zealand faced declining profits from rising expenses and maintenance complications while NZ Post resumed U.S. business parcel shipments following tariff adjustments.\nFiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka\u0026rsquo;s India visit strengthened bilateral connections through healthcare, agriculture, and renewable energy cooperation agreements. Rabuka backed India\u0026rsquo;s U.S. tariff dispute positioning emphasizing bilateral solidarity.\nTuvalu confronts existential climate change threats from rising ocean levels and escalating natural disasters requiring global cooperation and developed nation accountability for carbon emissions.\nMarshall Islands experienced a devastating parliament complex fire raising political motivation suspicions adding to mounting national political and social hardships.\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/04/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-d4d1/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"putin-vows-military-resolution-in-ukraine\"\u003ePutin Vows Military Resolution in Ukraine\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussian President Putin declared Russia will \u0026ldquo;resolve all our tasks militarily\u0026rdquo; should Ukraine reject negotiations. Speaking from Beijing after China\u0026rsquo;s military parade, he rejected ceasefire proposals while suggesting Zelensky \u0026ldquo;could always go to Moscow\u0026rdquo;\u0026ndash;a proposal Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s foreign minister deemed \u0026ldquo;knowingly unacceptable.\u0026rdquo; Putin reiterated demands for Ukrainian NATO abandonment and cessation of alleged ethnic Russian discrimination, while refusing to cede occupied Donbas territories. Trump stated Putin \u0026ldquo;knows where I stand\u0026rdquo; and threatened additional sanctions beyond targeting India for Russian oil purchases. UK Defence Secretary Healey announced 1 billion pounds in seized Russian assets would fund Ukrainian military aid, describing it as \u0026ldquo;Putin\u0026rsquo;s dirty money returned with interest.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Good morning.\n11 Killed in US Strike on Venezuelan Boat President Trump announced a US military \u0026ldquo;kinetic\u0026rdquo; strike killed 11 people aboard a small boat accused of smuggling drugs from Venezuela for the Tren de Aragua gang, marking the first known attack against alleged drug smugglers since increased Caribbean military deployment began. Trump shared aerial bombing footage on Truth Social warning \u0026ldquo;anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States\u0026rdquo; to \u0026ldquo;BEWARE,\u0026rdquo; as seven US warships and a nuclear submarine carry over 4,500 sailors and Marines in the region.\nThe strike escalates tensions with Venezuelan President Maduro, who pledged to \u0026ldquo;declare a republic in arms\u0026rdquo; if attacked and accused Trump of \u0026ldquo;seeking regime change through military threat,\u0026rdquo; while US intelligence reports contradict Trump\u0026rsquo;s claims that Maduro controls Tren de Aragua, with a declassified National Intelligence Council report finding Venezuela\u0026rsquo;s government \u0026ldquo;probably does not have a policy of cooperating with\u0026rdquo; the gang.\nMore - Al Jazeera\nIsraeli Reservists Deploy for Gaza Offensive Thousands of Israeli reservists began reporting for duty as ground forces pushed into Gaza City\u0026rsquo;s outskirts, with hospitals reporting over 50 Palestinians killed by strikes since midnight Tuesday as the military ordered nearly one million residents to evacuate south immediately. IDF Chief of Staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir told reservists they\u0026rsquo;re preparing for \u0026ldquo;decisive victory\u0026rdquo; in \u0026ldquo;Operation Gideon\u0026rsquo;s Chariots II,\u0026rdquo; though he reportedly warned Netanyahu the Gaza City plan would endanger 48 remaining hostages and require establishing military government there.\nUN officials called the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands \u0026ldquo;a recipe for further disaster\u0026rdquo; that could constitute war crimes, as global food experts confirmed famine in Gaza City will expand to central and southern areas by September\u0026rsquo;s end, with 13 Palestinians dying from malnutrition in the past 24 hours alone bringing the war\u0026rsquo;s total to 361 deaths.\nMore - BBC\nXi Vows to Defy \u0026lsquo;Intimidation\u0026rsquo;, Appears with Putin and Kim President Xi Jinping hosted Putin and Kim Jong Un together for the first time since 1959 at China\u0026rsquo;s massive military parade, creating a historic display of authoritarian unity against the US-led world order as Beijing showcased missiles capable of reaching American shores. Trump accused Xi of trying to \u0026ldquo;conspire against The United States of America\u0026rdquo; with the sanctioned leaders as the trio\u0026rsquo;s appearance symbolized potential bloc formation based on authoritarian regimes, worrying Western observers about China\u0026rsquo;s growing global influence with \u0026ldquo;uncomfortable bedfellows.\u0026rdquo;\nXi vowed to build a \u0026ldquo;world-class military\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;firmly safeguard\u0026rdquo; sovereignty in a veiled Taiwan reference, while defense stocks fell 7.1% as investors took profits, and Taiwan\u0026rsquo;s President Lai called China\u0026rsquo;s system resembling \u0026ldquo;fascism\u0026rdquo; with \u0026ldquo;intense domestic control\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;cult of the strongman leader.\u0026rdquo;\nMore - Bloomberg\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Albania, Andorra, Austria, Czech Republic, Finland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland\nRegional News Summary Swiss Post has temporarily halted shipments of goods to the United States, influenced by new US regulations and expiration of the \u0026lsquo;de minimis\u0026rsquo; loophole. Twenty-five nations have suspended postal services to the US, citing non-compliance with international postal agreements, underscoring growing tensions in global trade and logistics.\nThe Swiss medtech industry advocates for an EU deal ensuring continued medicine and medical device supply, highlighting sector resilience despite economic challenges. Switzerland faces additional pressures including pilot shortages affecting aviation and rising rents straining households.\nIn France, political turmoil continues as President Macron expresses full support for his embattled Prime Minister amid parliamentary confidence vote calls. Economic concerns include a fiscal deficit requiring creative solutions, though inflation has cooled. Rising child homelessness draws criticism from aid groups regarding political inaction.\nFrance actively engages allies on multiple fronts, including sanctions against Iran over nuclear programs, drawing Russian condemnation. France, Germany, and Poland collaborate to counter Russian interference in Moldova, reflecting commitment to regional stability.\nUkraine remains a focal point of international relations with significant developments. Russian forces advanced into the Dnipropetrovsk region, prompting Ukraine to launch a lithium project with the US to bolster mineral deals. NATO pledged increased financial support for Ukraine, while the US approved potential military equipment sales, including Starlink services.\nIn Poland, President Duda\u0026rsquo;s veto of a law extending support for Ukrainian refugees sparked debate over commitment to its eastern neighbor. This decision accompanies rising unemployment and a proposed digital services tax aimed at increasing revenue, despite US pushback.\nWildfires ravage Spain and Portugal, prompting urgent evacuations and highlighting the need for robust climate action. Spain experiences its hottest summer on record, complicating firefighting efforts and raising alarms about climate change impacts on public safety and infrastructure.\nItaly\u0026rsquo;s challenges compound as it prepares to host Euro 2032 tournament with outdated infrastructure. The country grapples with rising workplace fatalities, prompting calls for stronger labor protections.\nMENA Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates\nRegional News Summary Syria witnesses a potential thaw in relations with Israel, as President Bashar al-Assad announced \u0026ldquo;advanced negotiations\u0026rdquo; for a security agreement with Israel. This follows increased Israeli military activity in Syria, including recent airstrikes resulting in six Syrian soldier deaths near Damascus. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated willingness to withdraw forces from Lebanon if Hezbollah is disarmed, potentially affecting Syria\u0026rsquo;s security dynamics. The United States actively mediates these discussions, with a US envoy meeting Assad to explore regional developments.\nSaudi Arabia and Syria signed a historic $24 billion investment deal marking a significant shift in bilateral relations, spanning energy and infrastructure sectors and signaling a new cooperation era. Syria strengthens ties with Italy, focusing on health sector cooperation.\nHowever, Syria\u0026rsquo;s humanitarian situation remains dire, with record aid worker deaths primarily due to ongoing conflict. Some Syrian refugees begin returning home, a small sign of potential normalization in a war-ravaged country.\nYemen\u0026rsquo;s conflict escalated sharply, with Israeli airstrikes targeting capital Sanaa, resulting in at least ten deaths including the Houthi-backed Prime Minister. These strikes reportedly retaliated for a Houthi rebel missile attack, raising broader regional conflict concerns. The Houthis vowed harsh response, further complicating the volatile situation.\nYemen\u0026rsquo;s humanitarian crisis worsens, with millions facing food insecurity. The World Food Programme warned that without increased funding, the situation could deteriorate further.\nEgypt actively mediates the Israel-Hamas conflict, seeking ceasefire while engaging UAE discussions on regional stability. However, Egypt\u0026rsquo;s human rights record faces scrutiny, with UN calls for the country to end arbitrary critic detentions.\nIsrael faces increasing international backlash over its military Gaza operations, with global protests and country condemnations. The UK announced Palestine recognition as an independent state, further straining Israel\u0026rsquo;s diplomatic relations.\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/03/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-a2d3/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"11-killed-in-us-strike-on-venezuelan-boat\"\u003e11 Killed in US Strike on Venezuelan Boat\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePresident Trump announced a US military \u0026ldquo;kinetic\u0026rdquo; strike killed 11 people aboard a small boat accused of smuggling drugs from Venezuela for the Tren de Aragua gang, marking the first known attack against alleged drug smugglers since increased Caribbean military deployment began. Trump shared aerial bombing footage on Truth Social warning \u0026ldquo;anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States\u0026rdquo; to \u0026ldquo;BEWARE,\u0026rdquo; as seven US warships and a nuclear submarine carry over 4,500 sailors and Marines in the region.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Good morning,\nMaduro Threatens \u0026lsquo;Republic in Arms\u0026rsquo; Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stated he would \u0026ldquo;declare a republic in arms\u0026rdquo; if attacked by US forces, asserting Washington\u0026rsquo;s Caribbean naval deployment targets regime change rather than drug trafficking as officially claimed. Maduro alleged the US deployed \u0026ldquo;eight military ships with 1,200 missiles and a submarine targeting Venezuela,\u0026rdquo; describing it as \u0026ldquo;the biggest threat that has been seen on our continent in the last 100 years.\u0026rdquo; He mobilized troops along borders and activated citizen militias in response.\nThe US maintains two Aegis destroyers, a cruiser, and a nuclear submarine in Caribbean waters, with potential expansion including amphibious assault ships carrying 4,000 Marines. Trump\u0026rsquo;s administration doubled Maduro\u0026rsquo;s arrest bounty to $50 million over unsubstantiated drug trafficking allegations that internal intelligence memos found unwarranted.\nMore - Al Jazeera\nBrazil Convenes BRICS Meeting on Trump Tariffs Brazilian President Lula organized a virtual BRICS leaders meeting for Monday to address Trump\u0026rsquo;s trade policy and strengthen multilateralism support. However, reaching consensus on a joint statement remains challenging given varying tariff rates across member nations.\nBrazil faces 50% tariffs after Trump demanded its Supreme Court halt former President Bolsonaro\u0026rsquo;s coup trial, which begins Tuesday. US retaliation is expected, including visa revocations for justices and sanctions against the presiding judge.\nThe summit follows weekend discussions between China\u0026rsquo;s Xi and India\u0026rsquo;s Modi, plus Putin-Modi talks. Modi\u0026rsquo;s recent falling-out with Trump may enable stronger BRICS opposition to tariffs, contrasting with their July summit where Modi\u0026rsquo;s Trump ties complicated consensus.\nMore - Bloomberg\nAfghanistan Earthquake Kills Over 800 A 6.0 magnitude earthquake claimed over 800 lives and injured thousands in eastern Afghanistan\u0026rsquo;s mountainous Kunar province. Entire villages flattened as rescue operations struggled reaching remote areas; survivors spent nights outdoors.\nThe shallow quake struck 8km deep near Jalalabad, destroying 95% of some villages. Local hospitals overwhelmed already strained by tens of thousands of Afghans being deported from Pakistan.\nChina, India, the UK, and Switzerland pledged assistance as Taliban officials warned death tolls may rise significantly. Rescue teams used helicopters accessing blocked mountain areas where mud-brick homes collapsed with people trapped beneath, compounding Afghanistan\u0026rsquo;s severe drought and unprecedented hunger crisis.\nMore - BBC\nDay 1,286 of War in Ukraine It has been 1,286 days since Russia invaded Ukraine. Here\u0026rsquo;s a rundown of events from Al Jazeera\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Suriname, The Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, United States Of America, Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Uruguay\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/02/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-cb7a/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"maduro-threatens-republic-in-arms\"\u003eMaduro Threatens \u0026lsquo;Republic in Arms\u0026rsquo;\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eVenezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stated he would \u0026ldquo;declare a republic in arms\u0026rdquo; if attacked by US forces, asserting Washington\u0026rsquo;s Caribbean naval deployment targets regime change rather than drug trafficking as officially claimed. Maduro alleged the US deployed \u0026ldquo;eight military ships with 1,200 missiles and a submarine targeting Venezuela,\u0026rdquo; describing it as \u0026ldquo;the biggest threat that has been seen on our continent in the last 100 years.\u0026rdquo; He mobilized troops along borders and activated citizen militias in response.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Good morning.\nSuddenly, it\u0026rsquo;s September. Happy Labor Day to folks in the USA and Happy Independence Day to readers in Uzbekistan\nEarthquake hits Afghanistan A significant earthquake hit Afghanistan early Monday morning (local). Details are sparse at the time of writing, but the BBC has a live tracker here.\nKashmir Floods Kill Dozens At least 40 people died and scores were injured as torrential rains triggered major landslides and flash floods in Indian-administered Kashmir, with Jammu recording its heaviest-ever 24-hour rainfall of 380mm that devastated communities and knocked out telecommunications. Most victims were Hindu pilgrims visiting the popular Vaishno Devi temple in Katra, while floods swept away bridges on the Tawi river and forced evacuation of over 5,000 people as the region\u0026rsquo;s main land route temporarily shut due to landslides. Environmental experts blamed poor resource management including felling a million trees and construction on floodplains for amplifying threats, with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah criticizing authorities for failing to implement flood mitigation measures since devastating 2014 floods that left residents haunted by memories of apocalyptic destruction. More - Al Jazeera\nUS Trading Partners \u0026lsquo;Dazed\u0026rsquo; After Tariff Ruling A federal appeals court ruled 7-4 that Trump\u0026rsquo;s global tariffs were issued illegally under emergency law, creating chaos for trading partners while leaving the levies intact during appeals. The Federal Circuit upheld a lower court\u0026rsquo;s May ruling that tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were improper, as the law doesn\u0026rsquo;t mention tariffs \u0026ldquo;or any of its synonyms,\u0026rdquo; affecting trillions in global trade. Veteran trade negotiator Wendy Cutler said partners \u0026ldquo;must be dazed and confused\u0026rdquo; as many entered framework deals, with India likely \u0026ldquo;rejoicing\u0026rdquo; over its 50% tariff challenge while the EU may question domestic approval efforts and Japan-Korea could \u0026ldquo;slow walk\u0026rdquo; negotiations until legal clarity emerges, as Trump warned striking down tariffs would be \u0026ldquo;a total disaster for the Country.\u0026rdquo; More - Bloomberg\nFrench PM Declares \u0026lsquo;Fate of France\u0026rsquo; at Stake French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou declared the \u0026ldquo;fate of France\u0026rdquo; is at stake in the September 8 confidence vote on his austerity budget, which he\u0026rsquo;s expected to lose as opposition parties refuse to back his plan to slash 44 billion euros in spending. Seven out of 10 French people want Bayrou to lose according to polls, while Socialist leader Olivier Faure said his party\u0026rsquo;s decision to vote against is final, telling Bayrou \u0026ldquo;the only thing I\u0026rsquo;m waiting for him to do now is to say goodbye.\u0026rdquo; The 74-year-old prime minister accused some forces of wanting \u0026ldquo;chaos\u0026rdquo; and hopes to hold negotiations with opposition parties, but his gamble has raised fears of renewed political instability as the far-right National Rally senses opportunity, with deputy leader Sebastien Chenu declaring \u0026ldquo;stability, it\u0026rsquo;s us\u0026rdquo; while promising to fight for an absolute majority if new elections are called. More - France 24\nGlobal Stability Ratings Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.\nAfghanistan is Critically Unstable, Albania is Weak, Algeria is Weak, Andorra is Stable, Angola is Weak, Antigua and Barbuda is Stable, Argentina is Weak, Armenia is Weak, Australia is Stable, Austria is Stable, Azerbaijan is Weak, Bahrain is Weak, Bangladesh is Weak, Barbados is Stable, Belarus is Weak, Belgium is Stable, Belize is Weak, Benin is Weak, Bhutan is Stable, Bolivia is Weak, Bosnia and Herzegovina is Weak, Botswana is Stable, Brazil is Weak, Brunei is Stable, Bulgaria is Weak, Burkina Faso is Unstable, Burundi is Weak, Cambodia is Weak, Cameroon is Weak, Canada is Stable, Cape Verde is Stable, Central African Republic is Unstable, Chad is Unstable, Chile is Stable, China is Stable, Colombia is Unstable, Comoros is Weak, Costa Rica is Stable, Croatia is Stable, Cuba is Weak, Cyprus is Weak, Czech Republic is Stable, Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable, Denmark is Stable, Djibouti is Weak, Dominica is Stable, Dominican Republic is Weak, East Timor is Stable, Ecuador is Weak, Egypt is Weak, El Salvador is Weak, Equatorial Guinea is Unstable, Eritrea is Weak, Estonia is Stable, Eswatini is Weak, Ethiopia is Unstable, Federated States of Micronesia is Stable, Fiji is Weak, Finland is Stable, France is Weak, Gabon is Unstable, Georgia is Weak, Germany is Stable, Ghana is Stable, Greece is Weak, Grenada is Stable, Guatemala is Weak, Guinea is Unstable, Guinea-Bissau is Unstable, Guyana is Weak, Haiti is Unstable, Honduras is Unstable, Hungary is Stable, Iceland is Stable, India is Stable, Indonesia is Weak, Iran is Weak, Iraq is Unstable, Ireland is Stable, Israel is Weak, Italy is Weak, Ivory Coast is Weak, Jamaica is Weak, Japan is Stable, Jordan is Stable, Kazakhstan is Weak, Kenya is Weak, Kiribati is Weak, Kuwait is Weak, Kyrgyzstan is Weak, Laos is Weak, Latvia is Stable, Lebanon is Unstable, Lesotho is Weak, Liberia is Weak, Libya is Unstable, Liechtenstein is Stable, Lithuania is Stable, Luxembourg is Stable, Macedonia is Stable, Madagascar is Weak, Malawi is Weak, Malaysia is Stable, Maldives is Stable, Mali is Unstable, Malta is Stable, Marshall Islands is Weak, Mauritania is Weak, Mauritius is Stable, Mexico is Weak, Moldova is Weak, Monaco is Stable, Mongolia is Stable, Montenegro is Weak, Morocco is Stable, Mozambique is Weak, Myanmar is Unstable, Namibia is Stable, Nauru is Weak, Nepal is Weak, Netherlands is Stable, New Zealand is Stable, Nicaragua is Unstable, Niger is Unstable, Nigeria is Weak, North Korea is Unstable, Norway is Stable, Oman is Stable, Pakistan is Weak, Palau is Stable, Panama is Stable, Papua New Guinea is Stable, Paraguay is Weak, Peru is Weak, Philippines is Weak, Poland is Stable, Portugal is Stable, Qatar is Stable, Republic of the Congo is Unstable, Romania is Stable, Russia is Unstable, Rwanda is Weak, Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable, Saint Lucia is Weak, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable, Samoa is Weak, San Marino is Stable, Sao Tome and Principe is Stable, Saudi Arabia is Stable, Senegal is Stable, Serbia is Weak, Sierra Leone is Weak, Singapore is Stable, Slovakia is Stable, Slovenia is Stable, Solomon Islands is Stable, Somalia is Unstable, South Africa is Weak, South Korea is Stable, South Sudan is Critically Unstable, Spain is Stable, Sri Lanka is Weak, Sudan is Unstable, Suriname is Weak, Sweden is Weak, Switzerland is Stable, Syria is Critically Unstable, Taiwan is Stable, Tajikistan is Weak, Tanzania is Stable, Thailand is Weak, The Bahamas is Weak, The Gambia is Weak, Togo is Weak, Tonga is Weak, Trinidad and Tobago is Weak, Tunisia is Weak, Turkey is Weak, Turkmenistan is Weak, Tuvalu is Weak, Uganda is Weak, Ukraine is Unstable, United Arab Emirates is Stable, United Kingdom is Weak, United States Of America is Stable, Uruguay is Stable, Uzbekistan is Stable, Vanuatu is Weak, Venezuela is Unstable, Vietnam is Stable, Western Sahara is Weak, Yemen is Critically Unstable, Zambia is Stable, Zimbabwe is Weak\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/09/01/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-b890/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eSuddenly, it\u0026rsquo;s September. Happy Labor Day to folks in the USA and Happy Independence Day to readers in Uzbekistan\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"earthquake-hits-afghanistan\"\u003eEarthquake hits Afghanistan\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA significant earthquake hit Afghanistan early Monday morning (local). Details are sparse at the time of writing, but \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cy8kkxxxj3xt\"\u003ethe BBC has a live tracker here\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"kashmir-floods-kill-dozens\"\u003eKashmir Floods Kill Dozens\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt least 40 people died and scores were injured as torrential rains triggered major landslides and flash floods in Indian-administered Kashmir, with Jammu recording its heaviest-ever 24-hour rainfall of 380mm that devastated communities and knocked out telecommunications. Most victims were Hindu pilgrims visiting the popular Vaishno Devi temple in Katra, while floods swept away bridges on the Tawi river and forced evacuation of over 5,000 people as the region\u0026rsquo;s main land route temporarily shut due to landslides. Environmental experts blamed poor resource management including felling a million trees and construction on floodplains for amplifying threats, with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah criticizing authorities for failing to implement flood mitigation measures since devastating 2014 floods that left residents haunted by memories of apocalyptic destruction. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/8/29/everything-has-been-lost-kashmir-floods-landslides-kill-dozens\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic Of The Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, The Gambia, Togo, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period.\nUnchanged Cape Verde, Ghana, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Sao Tome and Principe, Tanzania, Zambia\nRegional News Summary Conflict and humanitarian crises continue dominating Africa\u0026rsquo;s landscape, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where violence has triggered severe famine and mass displacement. Peace negotiations between the DRC government and the M23 rebel group are resuming in Qatar. Former President Joseph Kabila faces capital punishment accusations for allegedly supporting rebel groups, escalating tensions.\nThe DRC\u0026rsquo;s natural resources drive international competition between the US and China. Pakistan has urged the UN Security Council to address illegal resource exploitation, identified as a conflict root cause. This rivalry prompted calls for increased US rare earth mining to reduce China dependence. Japan is simultaneously expanding African influence, particularly in DRC mineral sectors.\nNigeria intensified military operations against Boko Haram, with airstrikes eliminating dozens of militants and rescuing 76 hostages. The nation also deported 50 Chinese nationals engaged in online fraud schemes as part of a cybercrime crackdown.\nSouth Africa strengthened trade ties with Japan, with President Ramaphosa describing his recent visit as impactful. The South African Airports Company plans raising $569 million for growth initiatives.\nIndia\u0026rsquo;s Army Chief visited Algeria, signaling India\u0026rsquo;s expanding African engagement. Algeria\u0026rsquo;s role as major oil producer faces scrutiny as OPEC+ considers unwinding production cuts, potentially affecting global energy markets.\nKenya received UK compensation for historical forest fire victims, marking justice progress. However, raw food export declines of 10.25% raise economic stability concerns.\nWeekend Diversions Two quick reads for the long weekend:\nBloomberg examines President Xi\u0026rsquo;s military leadership purge, questioning whether it signals strength or weakness. Xi Unleashes China\u0026rsquo;s Biggest Purge of Military Leaders Since Mao\nSan Francisco\u0026rsquo;s citywide adventure awaits discovery. The Wild, Citywide Scavenger Hunt That Ate San Francisco\nHave a great weekend!\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/29/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-64f1/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"africa-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlgeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic Of The Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, The Gambia, Togo, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-stable\"\u003eMore Stable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo countries were more stable over this period.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Good morning,\nAs a reminder, it\u0026rsquo;s just the regional news summaries this week while I\u0026rsquo;m out on leave.\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Bhutan, Brunei, China, East Timor, Japan, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Singapore, Uzbekistan\nRegional News Summary Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economic conditions show contrasting trends\u0026ndash;Vietnam trade strengthens while equity markets weaken, indicating uncertain momentum. Major tech funding developments include Anthropic\u0026rsquo;s pursuit of nearly $5 billion in capital, while Avanse Financial successfully secured $200 million through external commercial borrowing.\nDiplomatically, China reinforces partnerships with Pakistan and discusses reopening India\u0026rsquo;s Shipki-La trade corridor. US-China tensions escalate as Nvidia halts production of a contested chip due to data security apprehensions.\nVietnam confronts typhoon devastation following Typhoon Kajiki, with over 500,000 evacuated and multiple fatalities reported. Rice export prices rise amid constrained domestic supplies and strengthened demand, though US tariff threats target furniture imports including Vietnamese goods.\nIndia anticipates high-level meetings with Japanese and Chinese leadership, with Japan reportedly preparing a $68 billion development initiative. US tariff expansion on Indian products prompts Reserve Bank readiness to support affected economic sectors.\nOceania Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Australia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Zealand, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands\nRegional News Summary Australia and the Philippines advance defense collaboration initiatives addressing shared regional security interests. Turkey pursues bilateral trade expansion with Australia, targeting $5 billion in commerce. Global Lithium secured mining authorization for its Manna lithium venture, advancing Australian extraction capabilities. Pacific Green obtained AU$77 million in debt financing for battery energy storage infrastructure development.\nNew Zealand allocated $1.6 billion for defense modernization, including submarine-detection helicopters and aircraft acquisitions. Intelligence officials flagged China as the primary foreign interference actor threatening the region.\nFiji\u0026rsquo;s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka visited India, negotiating expanded defense partnerships with PM Modi. A catastrophic fire destroyed the Marshall Islands parliament building.\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/28/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-1930/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAs a reminder, it\u0026rsquo;s just the regional news summaries this week while I\u0026rsquo;m out on leave.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"asia-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Vietnam\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-stable\"\u003eMore Stable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo countries were more stable over this period\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"unchanged\"\u003eUnchanged\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBhutan, Brunei, China, East Timor, Japan, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Singapore, Uzbekistan\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Albania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Andorra, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia\nRegional News Summary Switzerland faces economic strain from U.S. trade tensions and tariffs. The nation experienced significant gold export increases in July as firms seek value preservation. Switzerland and Austria have proposed hosting negotiations between Putin and Ukrainian leadership to resolve the ongoing conflict. NATO defense officials are simultaneously evaluating security arrangements for Ukraine through virtual consultations.\nFrance strengthens partnerships with India and Australia through coordinated diplomatic efforts. Macron engaged Modi on Ukraine and regional stability while reinforcing bilateral cooperation. However, friction emerged after Macron\u0026rsquo;s Palestinian state recognition drew Israeli criticism.\nNATO leadership reaffirmed commitment to Ukrainian independence with intensified discussions on protective guarantees. Norway committing $700 million toward air protection systems.\nPoland fortifies air defenses through Dutch equipment provision amid regional volatility. Ukraine remains under sustained pressure, experiencing major Russian strikes targeting American-linked manufacturing facilities. Ukrainian forces retaliated against Russian petroleum infrastructure.\nMENA Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Jordan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates\nRegional News Summary Syrian humanitarian operations continue amid crisis conditions. Syrian and Israeli representatives convened in Paris with American facilitation to negotiate de-escalation frameworks. Counterterrorism activities remain prioritized, with American forces neutralizing a significant ISIS financial operative.\nEgypt mediates Hamas-Israeli hostilities. El-Sisi rejected Palestinian relocation scenarios and enabled humanitarian shipments into Gaza. The United Nations declared famine conditions in Gaza.\nYemen experiences escalated conflict with projectile exchanges between Israeli and Houthi combatants. Yemeni missiles triggered Israeli strikes on Sanaa, causing casualties. Houthis vowed continued military response until Gaza\u0026rsquo;s embargo terminates.\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/27/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-428a/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"europe-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlbania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-stable\"\u003eMore Stable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo countries were more stable over this period\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"unchanged\"\u003eUnchanged\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndorra, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"regional-news-summary\"\u003eRegional News Summary\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSwitzerland faces economic strain from U.S. trade tensions and tariffs. The nation experienced significant gold export increases in July as firms seek value preservation. Switzerland and Austria have proposed hosting negotiations between Putin and Ukrainian leadership to resolve the ongoing conflict. NATO defense officials are simultaneously evaluating security arrangements for Ukraine through virtual consultations.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Good morning,\nAs a reminder, it\u0026rsquo;s just the ratings and regional news summaries this week while I\u0026rsquo;m on leave.\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Saint Lucia, Suriname, The Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, United States Of America, Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Costa Rica, Grenada, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil is managing strained international relations with the United States. The Brazilian government has disputed the legitimacy of a US trade probe and seeks World Trade Organization intervention. Brazil\u0026rsquo;s top court has ruled that US laws don\u0026rsquo;t apply within its territory.\nIn Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum has denied US assertions about joint anti-cartel operations, creating bilateral tensions. Mexico achieved notable economic gains in foreign investment and surpassed the US in vehicle exports to Canada.\nArgentina\u0026rsquo;s austerity efforts face obstacles as Congress blocked a key economic reformer\u0026rsquo;s appointment. Venezuela experienced escalating tensions as the US deployed warships nearby for drug trafficking operations. Colombia confronted severe security challenges as attacks attributed to FARC dissidents killed dozens.\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/26/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-da20/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAs a reminder, it\u0026rsquo;s just the ratings and regional news summaries this week while I\u0026rsquo;m on leave.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"americas-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eArgentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Saint Lucia, Suriname, The Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, United States Of America, Venezuela\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"more-stable\"\u003eMore Stable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo countries were more stable over this period\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Good morning.\nAs a reminder, it\u0026rsquo;s just the ratings and news summaries this week while I\u0026rsquo;m on leave.\nGlobal Stability Ratings Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.\nAfghanistan is Critically Unstable, Albania is Weak, Algeria is Weak, Andorra is Stable, Angola is Weak, Antigua and Barbuda is Stable, Argentina is Weak, Armenia is Weak, Australia is Stable, Austria is Stable, Azerbaijan is Stable, Bahrain is Weak, Bangladesh is Weak, Barbados is Stable, Belarus is Unstable, Belgium is Stable, Belize is Weak, Benin is Weak, Bhutan is Weak, Bolivia is Unstable, Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak, Botswana is Weak, Brazil is Weak, Brunei is Stable, Bulgaria is Weak, Burkina Faso is Unstable, Burundi is Weak, Cambodia is Weak, Cameroon is Weak, Canada is Stable, Cape Verde is Stable, Central African Republic is Unstable, Chad is Unstable, Chile is Stable, China is Stable, Colombia is Weak, Comoros is Weak, Costa Rica is Stable, Croatia is Stable, Cuba is Weak, Cyprus is Weak, Czech Republic is Stable, Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable, Denmark is Stable, Djibouti is Weak, Dominica is Weak, Dominican Republic is Weak, East Timor is Stable, Ecuador is Weak, Egypt is Weak, El Salvador is Weak, Equatorial Guinea is Unstable, Eritrea is Weak, Estonia is Stable, Eswatini is Weak, Ethiopia is Unstable, Fiji is Stable, Finland is Stable, France is Stable, Gabon is Weak, Georgia is Weak, Germany is Weak, Ghana is Stable, Greece is Weak, Grenada is Stable, Guatemala is Weak, Guinea is Unstable, Guinea-Bissau is Unstable, Guyana is Weak, Haiti is Unstable, Honduras is Unstable, Hungary is Weak, Iceland is Stable, India is Weak, Indonesia is Weak, Iran is Weak, Iraq is Unstable, Ireland is Weak, Israel is Weak, Italy is Weak, Jamaica is Weak, Japan is Stable, Jordan is Weak, Kazakhstan is Weak, Kenya is Weak, Kuwait is Stable, Laos is Weak, Latvia is Stable, Lebanon is Unstable, Libya is Unstable, Liechtenstein is Stable, Lithuania is Stable, Luxembourg is Highly Stable, Malaysia is Stable, Mali is Unstable, Malta is Stable, Mexico is Weak, Moldova is Weak, Monaco is Stable, Mongolia is Stable, Morocco is Stable, Mozambique is Unstable, Myanmar is Unstable, Namibia is Stable, Nepal is Weak, Netherlands is Stable, New Zealand is Stable, Nicaragua is Unstable, Niger is Unstable, Nigeria is Unstable, North Korea is Unstable, Norway is Stable, Oman is Stable, Pakistan is Weak, Panama is Stable, Peru is Weak, Philippines is Stable, Poland is Stable, Portugal is Stable, Qatar is Stable, Romania is Stable, Russia is Unstable, Rwanda is Stable, Saudi Arabia is Weak, Senegal is Stable, Serbia is Unstable, Singapore is Stable, Slovakia is Stable, Slovenia is Stable, Somalia is Unstable, South Africa is Weak, South Korea is Stable, South Sudan is Critically Unstable, Spain is Weak, Sri Lanka is Weak, Sudan is Unstable, Sweden is Stable, Switzerland is Stable, Syria is Critically Unstable, Taiwan is Stable, Tanzania is Stable, Thailand is Weak, Turkey is Weak, Ukraine is Unstable, United Arab Emirates is Stable, United Kingdom is Stable, United States Of America is Stable, Uruguay is Stable, Uzbekistan is Stable, Venezuela is Unstable, Vietnam is Stable, Yemen is Critically Unstable, Zambia is Stable, Zimbabwe is Weak\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/25/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-eef4/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAs a reminder, it\u0026rsquo;s just the ratings and news summaries this week while I\u0026rsquo;m on leave.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"global-stability-ratings\"\u003eGlobal Stability Ratings\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eReminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfghanistan is Critically Unstable, Albania is Weak, Algeria is Weak, Andorra is Stable, Angola is Weak, Antigua and Barbuda is Stable, Argentina is Weak, Armenia is Weak, Australia is Stable, Austria is Stable, Azerbaijan is Stable, Bahrain is Weak, Bangladesh is Weak, Barbados is Stable, Belarus is Unstable, Belgium is Stable, Belize is Weak, Benin is Weak, Bhutan is Weak, Bolivia is Unstable, Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak, Botswana is Weak, Brazil is Weak, Brunei is Stable, Bulgaria is Weak, Burkina Faso is Unstable, Burundi is Weak, Cambodia is Weak, Cameroon is Weak, Canada is Stable, Cape Verde is Stable, Central African Republic is Unstable, Chad is Unstable, Chile is Stable, China is Stable, Colombia is Weak, Comoros is Weak, Costa Rica is Stable, Croatia is Stable, Cuba is Weak, Cyprus is Weak, Czech Republic is Stable, Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable, Denmark is Stable, Djibouti is Weak, Dominica is Weak, Dominican Republic is Weak, East Timor is Stable, Ecuador is Weak, Egypt is Weak, El Salvador is Weak, Equatorial Guinea is Unstable, Eritrea is Weak, Estonia is Stable, Eswatini is Weak, Ethiopia is Unstable, Fiji is Stable, Finland is Stable, France is Stable, Gabon is Weak, Georgia is Weak, Germany is Weak, Ghana is Stable, Greece is Weak, Grenada is Stable, Guatemala is Weak, Guinea is Unstable, Guinea-Bissau is Unstable, Guyana is Weak, Haiti is Unstable, Honduras is Unstable, Hungary is Weak, Iceland is Stable, India is Weak, Indonesia is Weak, Iran is Weak, Iraq is Unstable, Ireland is Weak, Israel is Weak, Italy is Weak, Jamaica is Weak, Japan is Stable, Jordan is Weak, Kazakhstan is Weak, Kenya is Weak, Kuwait is Stable, Laos is Weak, Latvia is Stable, Lebanon is Unstable, Libya is Unstable, Liechtenstein is Stable, Lithuania is Stable, Luxembourg is Highly Stable, Malaysia is Stable, Mali is Unstable, Malta is Stable, Mexico is Weak, Moldova is Weak, Monaco is Stable, Mongolia is Stable, Morocco is Stable, Mozambique is Unstable, Myanmar is Unstable, Namibia is Stable, Nepal is Weak, Netherlands is Stable, New Zealand is Stable, Nicaragua is Unstable, Niger is Unstable, Nigeria is Unstable, North Korea is Unstable, Norway is Stable, Oman is Stable, Pakistan is Weak, Panama is Stable, Peru is Weak, Philippines is Stable, Poland is Stable, Portugal is Stable, Qatar is Stable, Romania is Stable, Russia is Unstable, Rwanda is Stable, Saudi Arabia is Weak, Senegal is Stable, Serbia is Unstable, Singapore is Stable, Slovakia is Stable, Slovenia is Stable, Somalia is Unstable, South Africa is Weak, South Korea is Stable, South Sudan is Critically Unstable, Spain is Weak, Sri Lanka is Weak, Sudan is Unstable, Sweden is Stable, Switzerland is Stable, Syria is Critically Unstable, Taiwan is Stable, Tanzania is Stable, Thailand is Weak, Turkey is Weak, Ukraine is Unstable, United Arab Emirates is Stable, United Kingdom is Stable, United States Of America is Stable, Uruguay is Stable, Uzbekistan is Stable, Venezuela is Unstable, Vietnam is Stable, Yemen is Critically Unstable, Zambia is Stable, Zimbabwe is Weak\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Good morning.\nLebanon Begins Disarming Palestinian Camps Lebanon launched a plan to disarm Palestinian groups in refugee camps, starting with weapons handovers from Burj al-Barajneh camp in Beirut as part of a wider disarmament campaign expected across all camps nationwide. More - Al Jazeera\nRussia Launches Heaviest Bombardment in Weeks Russia fired 574 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine in one of the heaviest bombardments in weeks. More - BBC\nEU-US Detail Trade Deal Next Steps The US and EU formalized plans for their trade pact with specific benchmarks for European tariff reductions. More - Bloomberg\nIsrael Approves Major West Bank Project To \u0026ldquo;Erase\u0026rdquo; The Palestinian State Israel gave final approval for the controversial E1 settlement project east of Jerusalem. More - France 24\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, DRC, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, The Gambia, Togo, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged Cape Verde, Ghana, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Rwanda, Senegal, Sao Tome and Principe, Tanzania, Zambia\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/22/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-8bbb/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"lebanon-begins-disarming-palestinian-camps\"\u003eLebanon Begins Disarming Palestinian Camps\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLebanon launched a plan to disarm Palestinian groups in refugee camps, starting with weapons handovers from Burj al-Barajneh camp in Beirut as part of a wider disarmament campaign expected across all camps nationwide. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/21/lebanon-begins-disarming-palestinian-groups-in-refugee-camps\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"russia-launches-heaviest-bombardment-in-weeks\"\u003eRussia Launches Heaviest Bombardment in Weeks\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia fired 574 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine in one of the heaviest bombardments in weeks. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62wj8yje2eo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"eu-us-detail-trade-deal-next-steps\"\u003eEU-US Detail Trade Deal Next Steps\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe US and EU formalized plans for their trade pact with specific benchmarks for European tariff reductions. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/eu-us-reach-agreement-on-joint-statement-outlining-trade-deal\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Good morning\nRussia Demands Role in Ukraine Security Talks Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that discussing Ukraine security guarantees without Moscow\u0026rsquo;s participation is a \u0026ldquo;road to nowhere.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\nIsrael Begins Gaza City Assault Israeli forces launched \u0026ldquo;preliminary actions\u0026rdquo; for a planned assault on Gaza City. More - BBC\nAsia and Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary Asia More Unstable Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan\nOceania More Unstable Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/21/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-846b/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"russia-demands-role-in-ukraine-security-talks\"\u003eRussia Demands Role in Ukraine Security Talks\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that discussing Ukraine security guarantees without Moscow\u0026rsquo;s participation is a \u0026ldquo;road to nowhere.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/20/russia-says-talks-on-ukraine-security-guarantees-must-include-moscow\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"israel-begins-gaza-city-assault\"\u003eIsrael Begins Gaza City Assault\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsraeli forces launched \u0026ldquo;preliminary actions\u0026rdquo; for a planned assault on Gaza City. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyr7l0z9edo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"asia-and-oceania-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eAsia and Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"asia-more-unstable\"\u003eAsia More Unstable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Good morning.\nModi Welcomes China Ties as US Criticism Escalates Indian Prime Minister Modi welcomed improved China relations and announced his first visit to China in seven years. More - Bloomberg\nIsrael Rejects Ceasefire Plan: Demands All Hostages Released Israel is demanding the release of all 50 Gaza hostages rather than accepting a new 60-day ceasefire proposal that Hamas approved. More - BBC\nEurope and MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary Europe More Unstable Albania, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine\nMENA More Unstable Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/20/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-8f84/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"modi-welcomes-china-ties-as-us-criticism-escalates\"\u003eModi Welcomes China Ties as US Criticism Escalates\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndian Prime Minister Modi welcomed improved China relations and announced his first visit to China in seven years. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-20/modi-hails-china-ties-as-bessent-swipes-at-india-s-rich-families\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"israel-rejects-ceasefire-plan-demands-all-hostages-released\"\u003eIsrael Rejects Ceasefire Plan: Demands All Hostages Released\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael is demanding the release of all 50 Gaza hostages rather than accepting a new 60-day ceasefire proposal that Hamas approved. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjeynvp409vo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"europe-and-mena-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eEurope and MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"europe-more-unstable\"\u003eEurope More Unstable\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlbania, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"US Revokes 6,000 Student Visas, Hamas Accepts Gaza Truce Proposal, US-Europe Summit Yields Ukraine Security Plan Good morning,\n🇺🇸 US Revokes 6,000 Student Visas\nThe State Department revoked over 6,000 international student visas for violations including assault, DUI, burglary and \u0026ldquo;support for terrorism,\u0026rdquo; with about 4,000 revoked for breaking US law and 200-300 for terrorism-related activities. The crackdown comes as the Trump administration targets international students, requiring social media account disclosure for enhanced screening to identify \u0026ldquo;hostility toward US citizens, culture, or institutions\u0026rdquo; and those supporting \u0026ldquo;designated foreign terrorists.\u0026rdquo; Secretary of State Marco Rubio said \u0026ldquo;thousands\u0026rdquo; of visas have been rescinded since January with more planned, while Democrats criticized the effort as attacking due process, affecting a population of over 1.1 million international students from 210+ countries enrolled in US colleges. More - BBC\n🇵🇸 Hamas Accepts Gaza Truce Proposal\nHamas informed mediators it has approved the latest Gaza ceasefire proposal and is ready to resume talks, with the plan including a 60-day cessation of military operations and exchange of half the 50 Israeli captives for Palestinian prisoners. The announcement came after talks between Qatar\u0026rsquo;s prime minister and Egyptian president, though past negotiations have repeatedly failed when Israel rejected similar proposals to continue its war campaign. Israel signals it will push ahead with plans to seize Gaza City despite the Hamas acceptance, with Netanyahu saying Hamas is \u0026ldquo;under atomic pressure\u0026rdquo; while far-right minister Smotrich opposed any ceasefire, as Amnesty International accused Israel of \u0026ldquo;deliberately starving\u0026rdquo; Palestinians amid a famine crisis that has killed over 260 people. More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇦 US-Europe Summit Yields Ukraine Security Plan\nUS and European officials began work on security guarantees for Ukraine following Monday\u0026rsquo;s White House summit, aiming to allow Kyiv to boost troop numbers without limitations and avoid Russian demands for military restrictions in any future peace deal. Trump committed to help guarantee Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s security through \u0026ldquo;Article 5-like\u0026rdquo; language originally proposed by Italy\u0026rsquo;s Meloni, with Europe expected to shoulder much of the burden including weapons purchases and a potential multinational force. The package would build on the UK-France \u0026ldquo;coalition of the willing\u0026rdquo; while stopping short of NATO membership, as Trump called Putin after the meeting to urge arrangements for a trilateral summit, though Russia\u0026rsquo;s Foreign Ministry rejected any NATO troops in Ukraine and Putin\u0026rsquo;s agreement to meet Zelensky remains unclear. More - Bloomberg\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil is currently grappling with escalating trade tensions with the United States, which has imposed tariffs on key Brazilian exports such as orange juice and soybeans. In response, Brazil has unveiled a substantial $5.5 billion credit package aimed at supporting its exporters affected by these tariffs [SOURCE - Times of India].\nAdditionally, the U.S. has enacted sanctions against Brazilian judiciary and h\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/19/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-de05/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-revokes-6000-student-visas-hamas-accepts-gaza-truce-proposal-us-europe-summit-yields-ukraine-security-plan\"\u003eUS Revokes 6,000 Student Visas, Hamas Accepts Gaza Truce Proposal, US-Europe Summit Yields Ukraine Security Plan\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸 US Revokes 6,000 Student Visas\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe State Department revoked over 6,000 international student visas for violations including assault, DUI, burglary and \u0026ldquo;support for terrorism,\u0026rdquo; with about 4,000 revoked for breaking US law and 200-300 for terrorism-related activities. The crackdown comes as the Trump administration targets international students, requiring social media account disclosure for enhanced screening to identify \u0026ldquo;hostility toward US citizens, culture, or institutions\u0026rdquo; and those supporting \u0026ldquo;designated foreign terrorists.\u0026rdquo; Secretary of State Marco Rubio said \u0026ldquo;thousands\u0026rdquo; of visas have been rescinded since January with more planned, while Democrats criticized the effort as attacking due process, affecting a population of over 1.1 million international students from 210+ countries enrolled in US colleges. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz93vznxd07o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit, Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal, Pakistan Floods Kill 337 Good morning.\n🇺🇦 Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit\nUkrainian President Zelensky faces an \u0026ldquo;impossible bind\u0026rdquo; ahead of Monday\u0026rsquo;s Washington talks with Trump: risk the US president\u0026rsquo;s wrath or accept territorial concessions for vague security guarantees that could enable Russia\u0026rsquo;s return in years to come. After Trump\u0026rsquo;s Alaska summit with Putin bypassed ceasefire demands and embraced \u0026ldquo;land swaps,\u0026rdquo; Zelensky must navigate memories of February\u0026rsquo;s bitter White House exchange that briefly halted military aid while seeking clarity on security guarantees and trilateral meeting timing. Trump\u0026rsquo;s special envoy suggested the US could offer \u0026ldquo;Article 5-like language\u0026rdquo; to Ukraine, but details remain unclear as Zelensky reaffirmed he won\u0026rsquo;t \u0026ldquo;give up territory or trade land\u0026rdquo; despite softening Ukrainian public support and mounting casualties from intensified Russian attacks. More - Bloomberg\n🇮🇱 Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal\nHundreds of thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Hostages Square\u0026rdquo; and staged a national strike demanding an end to the Gaza war and release of remaining hostages, with organizers warning Netanyahu\u0026rsquo;s plan to occupy Gaza City risks the lives of around 20 captives still held by Hamas. The protests, which closed roads and led to nearly 40 arrests, came after Israel\u0026rsquo;s war cabinet voted to forcibly displace Gaza City\u0026rsquo;s population, creating what Hamas-run authorities called a \u0026ldquo;catastrophic\u0026rdquo; situation in the Zeitoun neighborhood. Netanyahu criticized the demonstrations saying they would \u0026ldquo;harden Hamas\u0026rsquo;s stance,\u0026rdquo; while hostage mother Einav Zangauker declared the government \u0026ldquo;has transformed a just war into a pointless war\u0026rdquo; as Israel plans to displace a million people from Gaza City where 90% of the 2.3 million population has already been displaced. More - BBC\n🇵🇰 Pakistan Floods Kill 337\nClimate change-induced flash floods killed at least 337 people in northwestern Pakistan with dozens missing after torrential rains and cloudbursts triggered massive flooding, particularly devastating the mountainous Buner district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Angry residents accused officials of failing to warn them to evacuate, with no alerts broadcast from mosque loudspeakers despite traditional early warning systems, though the government defended its response saying the sudden downpour was too intense for timely alerts. Pakistan has received 50% more rainfall than last year since monsoon season began in June, with over 600 total deaths, while authorities warn of more deluges through Tuesday as climate change intensifies extreme weather in a country producing less than 1% of global emissions but facing devastating consequences. More - Al Jazeera\nGlobal Stability Ratings Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.\n🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable\n🇦🇱 Albania is Weak\n🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\n🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\n🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\n🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\n🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak\n🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\n🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\n🇦🇹 Austria is Stable\n🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak\n🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\n🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak\n🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable\n🇧🇾 Belarus is Unstable\n🇧🇪 Belgium is Stable\n🇧🇿 Belize is Weak\n🇧🇯 Benin is Weak\n🇧🇹 Bhutan is Weak\n🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak\n🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak\n🇧🇼 Botswana is Weak\n🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak\n🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable\n🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Weak\n🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable\n🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak\n🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak\n🇨🇲 Cameroon is Unstable\n🇨🇦 Canada is Stable\n🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable\n🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable\n🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable\n🇨🇱 Chile is Stable\n🇨🇳 China is Stable\n🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak\n🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak\n🇨🇷 Costa Rica is\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/18/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-d61d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"only-bad-options-for-zelensky-after-alaska-summit-huge-israeli-crowds-demand-hostage-deal-pakistan-floods-kill-337\"\u003eOnly Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit, Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal, Pakistan Floods Kill 337\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUkrainian President Zelensky faces an \u0026ldquo;impossible bind\u0026rdquo; ahead of Monday\u0026rsquo;s Washington talks with Trump: risk the US president\u0026rsquo;s wrath or accept territorial concessions for vague security guarantees that could enable Russia\u0026rsquo;s return in years to come. After Trump\u0026rsquo;s Alaska summit with Putin bypassed ceasefire demands and embraced \u0026ldquo;land swaps,\u0026rdquo; Zelensky must navigate memories of February\u0026rsquo;s bitter White House exchange that briefly halted military aid while seeking clarity on security guarantees and trilateral meeting timing. Trump\u0026rsquo;s special envoy suggested the US could offer \u0026ldquo;Article 5-like language\u0026rdquo; to Ukraine, but details remain unclear as Zelensky reaffirmed he won\u0026rsquo;t \u0026ldquo;give up territory or trade land\u0026rdquo; despite softening Ukrainian public support and mounting casualties from intensified Russian attacks. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-17/trump-s-peace-deal-demands-leave-zelenskiy-with-only-bad-options\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Smotrich Vows Settlement Push, China’s Economy Weakens, Pressure on Russia\u0026rsquo;s Economy Good morning.\n🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Smotrich Vows Settlement Push\nIsraeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich revived the long-shelved E1 Plan to build 3,000 houses near Jerusalem, vowing it will \u0026ldquo;bury the idea of a Palestinian state\u0026rdquo; as over a dozen countries prepare to recognize Palestine in September. The settlement would split East Jerusalem from the West Bank by expanding Ma\u0026rsquo;ale Adumim between Jerusalem and the Dead Sea, effectively dividing Palestinian territory into northern and southern sections. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas condemned the plan as \u0026ldquo;a breach of international law\u0026rdquo; that \u0026ldquo;undermines the two-state solution,\u0026rdquo; while Israeli NGO Peace Now warned the government is \u0026ldquo;driving us forward at full speed\u0026rdquo; toward \u0026ldquo;an abyss\u0026rdquo; as construction could begin within a year if fast-tracked approvals proceed. More - Financial Times\n🇨🇳 China’s Economy Weakens Across All Sectors\nChina\u0026rsquo;s economy slowed sharply in July with factory output rising just 5.7% year-over-year (the slowest since November), retail sales growing only 3.7% (the weakest this year), and fixed-asset investment decelerating to 1.6% as unemployment climbed to 5.2%. The broad-based weakness suggests Beijing\u0026rsquo;s crackdown on \u0026ldquo;destructive price wars\u0026rdquo; and Trump tariff spillovers are weighing on growth, with analysts warning the \u0026ldquo;tariff-related swoon has begun.\u0026rdquo; Investment in manufacturing, property and infrastructure all fell in what BNP Paribas called \u0026ldquo;extremely rare\u0026rdquo; simultaneous declines, while yuan-denominated new loans contracted for the first time in 20 years, highlighting subdued borrowing appetite as extreme weather and Beijing\u0026rsquo;s campaign against corporate \u0026ldquo;involution\u0026rdquo; added to economic headwinds. More - Bloomberg\n🇺🇸 🇷🇺 As Trump and Putin prepare to meet in Alaska this afternoon, Bloomberg’s Big Take focuses on the pressure the war is causing on Russia’s economy. Exposing the Cracks at the Heart of Putin’s War Economy, Bloomberg\nThe talks are due to begin at 11:00 local time in Anchorage, 15:00ET. The BBC has a live feed here.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇿🇲 Zambia\nRegional News Summary Plans are underway to establish a \u0026ldquo;smart economic corridor\u0026rdquo; in Southern Africa, which is projected to create approximately 1.6 million jobs [SOURCE - The South African].\nIn the realm of international relations, France and Algeria are currently experiencing diplomatic tensions, with French President Emmanuel Macron advocating for stricter measures against Algeria, including new visa restrictions. This escalation is viewed as a significant development in their ongoing spat, with Macron accusing Algerian officials of spreading misinformation [SOURCE - Middle East Eye].\nOn the economic front, Algeria has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s Fatima Group to enhance phosphate fe\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/15/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-e674/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"smotrich-vows-settlement-push-chinas-economy-weakens-pressure-on-russias-economy\"\u003eSmotrich Vows Settlement Push, China’s Economy Weakens, Pressure on Russia\u0026rsquo;s Economy\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Smotrich Vows Settlement Push\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsraeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich revived the long-shelved E1 Plan to build 3,000 houses near Jerusalem, vowing it will \u0026ldquo;bury the idea of a Palestinian state\u0026rdquo; as over a dozen countries prepare to recognize Palestine in September. The settlement would split East Jerusalem from the West Bank by expanding Ma\u0026rsquo;ale Adumim between Jerusalem and the Dead Sea, effectively dividing Palestinian territory into northern and southern sections. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas condemned the plan as \u0026ldquo;a breach of international law\u0026rdquo; that \u0026ldquo;undermines the two-state solution,\u0026rdquo; while Israeli NGO Peace Now warned the government is \u0026ldquo;driving us forward at full speed\u0026rdquo; toward \u0026ldquo;an abyss\u0026rdquo; as construction could begin within a year if fast-tracked approvals proceed. \u003ca href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/7a2c37ae-93e6-4203-b835-9f2a28321579\"\u003eMore - Financial Times\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Children Dying of Hunger in Darfur, Oil Near Two-Month Low on Oversupply Fears, rump Promises Trilateral Meeting If Putin Summit ‘Goes Ok’ Good morning\n🇸🇩 Children Dying of Hunger in Darfur\nChildren are dying of starvation in Sudan\u0026rsquo;s besieged city of el-Fasher as prices have soared so dramatically that money for a week\u0026rsquo;s worth of meals now buys only one, with community kitchens serving animal feed residue to desperate families. The BBC obtained rare footage showing the 14-month RSF blockade has created catastrophic conditions where doctors report over 60 malnutrition deaths last week, with severely malnourished children \u0026ldquo;just waiting for their death\u0026rdquo; in hospitals lacking therapeutic food supplies. International aid groups condemned the \u0026ldquo;calculated use of starvation as a weapon of war\u0026rdquo; as cholera spreads through displaced person camps, while humanitarian convoys remain blocked despite UN appeals for access to the trapped population. More - BBC\n🛢️ Oil Near Two-Month Low on Oversupply Fears\nOil steadied near a two-month low with WTI just below $63 and Brent closing under $66 after the International Energy Agency warned of record oversupply next year, with inventories accumulating at 2.96 million barrels daily - exceeding even pandemic-year 2020 levels. Oil has lost over 10% this year following OPEC+\u0026rsquo;s completion of output curb reversals, while traders monitor Friday\u0026rsquo;s Trump-Putin summit that could impact Russian sanctions. Trump warned of \u0026ldquo;very severe consequences\u0026rdquo; if Putin doesn\u0026rsquo;t agree to a ceasefire, as US crude stockpiles rose 3 million barrels last week to two-month highs and the IEA increased its forecast for non-OPEC+ production, especially in the Americas. More - Bloomberg\n🇺🇦 Trump Promises Trilateral Meeting If Putin Summit ‘Goes Ok’\nPresident Trump promised trilateral talks with Putin and Zelensky after Friday\u0026rsquo;s Alaska summit, saying \u0026ldquo;I would like to do it immediately\u0026rdquo; if the bilateral meeting \u0026ldquo;goes OK,\u0026rdquo; while warning Russia faces \u0026ldquo;severe consequences\u0026rdquo; if Putin doesn\u0026rsquo;t agree to end the war. The pledge came after a virtual meeting with Zelensky and European leaders who demanded no peace talks without Ukrainian representation and tougher sanctions if Russia rejects a ceasefire. German Chancellor Merz stressed that \u0026ldquo;legal recognition of Russian occupation is not up for debate\u0026rdquo; while Zelensky accused Putin of \u0026ldquo;bluffing\u0026rdquo; about peace talks as Russian forces achieved their largest 24-hour territorial advance in over a year in Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Donetsk province. More - Al Jazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nRegional News Summary Singapore has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to between 1.5% and 2.5%, buoyed by a robust 4.4% growth in the second quarter. This positive outlook is complemented by expectations of a rebound in the stock market following a recent decline, as analysts predict a correction in the coming days. Additionally, Singapore-listed CapitaLand Reit is expanding its operations by developing new IT parks in India, marking a strategic move into a growing market [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nIn the realm of trade and diplomacy, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has underscored the necessity for rapid\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/14/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-f904/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"children-dying-of-hunger-in-darfur-oil-near-two-month-low-on-oversupply-fears-rump-promises-trilateral-meeting-if-putin-summit-goes-ok\"\u003eChildren Dying of Hunger in Darfur, Oil Near Two-Month Low on Oversupply Fears, rump Promises Trilateral Meeting If Putin Summit ‘Goes Ok’\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇸🇩 Children Dying of Hunger in Darfur\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eChildren are dying of starvation in Sudan\u0026rsquo;s besieged city of el-Fasher as prices have soared so dramatically that money for a week\u0026rsquo;s worth of meals now buys only one, with community kitchens serving animal feed residue to desperate families. The BBC obtained rare footage showing the 14-month RSF blockade has created catastrophic conditions where doctors report over 60 malnutrition deaths last week, with severely malnourished children \u0026ldquo;just waiting for their death\u0026rdquo; in hospitals lacking therapeutic food supplies. International aid groups condemned the \u0026ldquo;calculated use of starvation as a weapon of war\u0026rdquo; as cholera spreads through displaced person camps, while humanitarian convoys remain blocked despite UN appeals for access to the trapped population. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxp0qyn6dqo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Zelensky Rejects Donbas Concession, Iran Arrested 21,000 During Israel War Good morning.\n🇺🇦 Zelensky Rejects Donbas Concession\nUkrainian President Zelensky ruled out ceding the Donbas region to Russia in any peace deal, warning it would create \u0026ldquo;a bridgehead for Russians to prepare an offensive\u0026rdquo; ahead of Friday\u0026rsquo;s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Zelensky said Ukraine would reject proposals to surrender parts of Donbas despite Russian forces making a sudden 10km advance near Dobropillia, which he claimed was timed to create an \u0026ldquo;information space\u0026rdquo; showing \u0026ldquo;Russia is moving forward while Ukraine is losing.\u0026rdquo; The Ukrainian leader expressed frustration at being excluded from the Alaska summit, calling the location choice a \u0026ldquo;personal victory\u0026rdquo; for Putin who is \u0026ldquo;coming out of isolation\u0026rdquo; by meeting on US territory, while warning any agreements without Kyiv\u0026rsquo;s involvement would be \u0026ldquo;dead decisions.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇮🇷 Iran Arrested 21,000 During Israel War\nIran arrested 21,000 \u0026ldquo;suspects\u0026rdquo; during its 12-day conflict with Israel and the US in June, following massive strikes that killed top military officials, scientists and hundreds of civilians, according to a police spokesperson. Iranian security forces launched widespread arrests with intensified street checkpoints and public reporting campaigns, with citizens encouraged to report suspicious individuals amid a 41% increase in public calls to authorities. The crackdown also targeted Afghan refugees and migrants, with police rounding up 2,774 \u0026ldquo;illegal migrants\u0026rdquo; and discovering \u0026ldquo;30 special security cases\u0026rdquo; while accusing some Afghan nationals of spying for Israel, as Iran has executed seven men convicted of Israeli espionage since the conflict ended. More - Al Jazeera\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden\nRegional News Summary Switzerland is currently navigating a challenging economic landscape as it reassesses its global strategy in light of escalating tariffs imposed by the United States. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutterhas engaged in discussions with US Secretary of State Rubio to mitigate the impact of these tariffs, which have already prompted local firms to rethink their international operations. Despite a steady jobless rate, the Swiss economy is feeling the strain from ongoing trade tensions, raising concerns about future growth prospects [SOURCE - International Business Times].\nThe gold industry has been particularly affected, with US tariffs on Swiss gold bar imports leading to a surge in gold futures prices, although a subsequent clarification from the White House caused these prices to retract [SOURCE - UPI]. This volatility underscores the broader implications of US trade policies on European markets.\nIn France, a massive wildfire has wreaked havoc in the south, marking the worst such event in 80 years, with over 16,000 hectares burned and numerous homes lost. Firefighters are battling the blaze, but the situation remains dire [SOURCE - France 24].\nAmidst these environmental challenges, the UK has announced the detention of the first migrants under a new return deal with France, reflect\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/13/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-4eba/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"zelensky-rejects-donbas-concession-iran-arrested-21000-during-israel-war\"\u003eZelensky Rejects Donbas Concession, Iran Arrested 21,000 During Israel War\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 Zelensky Rejects Donbas Concession\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUkrainian President Zelensky ruled out ceding the Donbas region to Russia in any peace deal, warning it would create \u0026ldquo;a bridgehead for Russians to prepare an offensive\u0026rdquo; ahead of Friday\u0026rsquo;s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Zelensky said Ukraine would reject proposals to surrender parts of Donbas despite Russian forces making a sudden 10km advance near Dobropillia, which he claimed was timed to create an \u0026ldquo;information space\u0026rdquo; showing \u0026ldquo;Russia is moving forward while Ukraine is losing.\u0026rdquo; The Ukrainian leader expressed frustration at being excluded from the Alaska summit, calling the location choice a \u0026ldquo;personal victory\u0026rdquo; for Putin who is \u0026ldquo;coming out of isolation\u0026rdquo; by meeting on US territory, while warning any agreements without Kyiv\u0026rsquo;s involvement would be \u0026ldquo;dead decisions.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g6qd3k2peo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Zelenskyy: Putin Planning \u0026lsquo;New Offensive\u0026rsquo;, Nigerian Troops Kill 100+ \u0026lsquo;Bandits\u0026rsquo; Good morning,\nApologies for the formatting issue with some versions of yesterday’s SITREP.\n🇺🇦 Zelenskyy: Putin Planning \u0026lsquo;New Offensive\u0026rsquo;\nUkrainian President Zelenskyy warned that Putin is preparing for \u0026ldquo;new offensive operations\u0026rdquo; rather than a ceasefire, despite Friday\u0026rsquo;s scheduled Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, saying intelligence reports show Russia redeploying troops for further assaults. Zelenskyy rejected Trump\u0026rsquo;s suggestion of \u0026ldquo;land swapping,\u0026rdquo; stating \u0026ldquo;concessions do not persuade a killer\u0026rdquo; as 26 European leaders stressed Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s right to \u0026ldquo;choose its own destiny\u0026rdquo; and that borders \u0026ldquo;must not be changed by force.\u0026rdquo; The warnings come as Trump said he would know \u0026ldquo;in the first two minutes\u0026rdquo; whether progress with Putin was possible, while the Institute for the Study of War noted Moscow isn\u0026rsquo;t preparing its public for anything short of \u0026ldquo;full victory in Ukraine.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\n🇳🇬 Nigerian Troops Kill 100+ \u0026lsquo;Bandits\u0026rsquo;\nNigerian forces killed more than 100 criminal gang members in an air and ground raid in Zamfara state, targeting over 400 bandits gathered at their Makakkari forest camp according to a UN conflict monitoring report. The Sunday operation followed a Friday attack on Adabka village where bandits kidnapped residents and killed 13 security personnel, as part of escalating violence in Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s northwest. The \u0026ldquo;banditry\u0026rdquo; crisis has evolved from herder-farmer conflicts into organized crime involving cattle rustling, kidnapping for ransom, and taxing farmers, while worsening malnutrition as attacks drive people from their farms and the violence spreads beyond its northwestern heartland into central Nigeria. More - France 24\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil has emerged as a vocal opponent of the tariffs imposed by the United States, with President Lula’s advisor firmly stating that Brazil will not accept sanctions on its oil imports. In response to these tariffs, Brazil has sought alternative markets, notably turning to China, to mitigate the economic impact. The tariffs have strained trade relations, prompting Brazil to seek relief from the World Trade Organization and retaliate by imposing duties on American goods. President Lula has opted to engage with leaders from India and China instead of directly communicating with U.S. President Trump, signaling a shift in diplomatic priorities amid deteriorating relations with the U.S. [SOURCE - The Washington Post].\nThe economic ramifications of these tariffs are palpable, particularly affecting Brazil\u0026rsquo;s agriculture and machinery sectors, leading to a decline in exports and rising prices. As Brazil navigates these challenges, it is also strengthening ties with India and China, focusing on mutual interests in trade and defense cooperation [SOURCE - The Economic Times].\nMeanwhile, Mexico\u0026rsquo;s economy has shown resilience despite global trade tensions. Exports to the U.S. increased by 6.3% in the first half of 2025, and Mexico has solidified its position as a key supplier to the U.S. auto industry. The country is also implementing a bold p\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/12/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-2532/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"zelenskyy-putin-planning-new-offensive-nigerian-troops-kill-100-bandits\"\u003eZelenskyy: Putin Planning \u0026lsquo;New Offensive\u0026rsquo;, Nigerian Troops Kill 100+ \u0026lsquo;Bandits\u0026rsquo;\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eApologies for the formatting issue with some versions of yesterday’s SITREP.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 Zelenskyy: Putin Planning \u0026lsquo;New Offensive\u0026rsquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUkrainian President Zelenskyy warned that Putin is preparing for \u0026ldquo;new offensive operations\u0026rdquo; rather than a ceasefire, despite Friday\u0026rsquo;s scheduled Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, saying intelligence reports show Russia redeploying troops for further assaults. Zelenskyy rejected Trump\u0026rsquo;s suggestion of \u0026ldquo;land swapping,\u0026rdquo; stating \u0026ldquo;concessions do not persuade a killer\u0026rdquo; as 26 European leaders stressed Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s right to \u0026ldquo;choose its own destiny\u0026rdquo; and that borders \u0026ldquo;must not be changed by force.\u0026rdquo; The warnings come as Trump said he would know \u0026ldquo;in the first two minutes\u0026rdquo; whether progress with Putin was possible, while the Institute for the Study of War noted Moscow isn\u0026rsquo;t preparing its public for anything short of \u0026ldquo;full victory in Ukraine.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/12/zelenskyy-says-putin-readying-for-new-offensive-in-ukraine-not-ceasefire\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory \u0026lsquo;On Table\u0026rsquo;, Four Al Jazeera Journalists Killed by IDF, Uganda Denies Besigye Bail in Treason Case Good morning.\n🇺🇦 NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory \u0026lsquo;On Table\u0026rsquo;\nNATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week\u0026rsquo;s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska may open negotiations about Ukrainian territory, suggesting Ukraine could acknowledge Russia\u0026rsquo;s de facto control without formal sovereignty recognition. Rutte\u0026rsquo;s comments come as European leaders conduct \u0026ldquo;frenetic rounds\u0026rdquo; of virtual meetings to devise strategy before Friday\u0026rsquo;s summit, fearing Ukraine could be pressured into accepting significant territorial losses. Vice President JD Vance expects a \u0026ldquo;very simple\u0026rdquo; outcome based on current battle lines, while Zelensky maintains Ukraine \u0026ldquo;won\u0026rsquo;t - and constitutionally can\u0026rsquo;t - cede territory,\u0026rdquo; warning against accepting Putin\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;spin\u0026rdquo; on negotiations as European officials reaffirm that \u0026ldquo;international borders must not be changed by force.\u0026rdquo; More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸 Four Al Jazeera Journalists Killed by IDF\nFour Al Jazeera journalists were killed in an Israeli strike near Gaza City\u0026rsquo;s Al-Shifa Hospital while in a tent at the hospital\u0026rsquo;s main gate, including correspondents Anas al-Sharif and Mohammed Qreiqeh and cameramen Ibrahim Zaher and Mohammed Noufal. The IDF confirmed targeting al-Sharif, claiming he \u0026ldquo;served as the head of a terrorist cell in Hamas\u0026rdquo; and was \u0026ldquo;responsible for advancing rocket attacks,\u0026rdquo; though Al Jazeera had previously condemned what it called the IDF\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;campaign of incitement\u0026rdquo; against its reporters. Al-Sharif, 28, had been posting warnings about intense Israeli bombardment moments before his death, with the killings bringing the total number of journalists confirmed dead since October 2023 to 186 according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. More - BBC\nNote - Al Jazeera has updated this number to five killed Al Jazeera\n🇺🇬 Uganda Denies Besigye Bail in Treason Case\nA Ugandan judge refused bail for veteran opposition leader Kizza Besigye, who has been jailed for nearly nine months on treason charges, ruling he falls 12 days short of the 180-day maximum period for mandatory bail. Judge Emmanuel Baguma said the period only began when Besigye was remanded to civilian court in February, despite his lawyers arguing he should be automatically released. The case has raised concerns about a government crackdown ahead of next year\u0026rsquo;s national election where 80-year-old President Yoweri Museveni seeks re-election, with Besigye having been forcefully returned from Kenya last November and initially charged in military court before transfer to civilian jurisdiction. More - Al Jazeera\nGlobal Stability Ratings Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.\n🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable\n🇦🇱 Albania is Weak\n🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\n🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\n🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\n🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\n🇦🇷 Argentina is Stable\n🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\n🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\n🇦🇹 Austria is Weak\n🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak\n🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\n🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak\n🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable\n🇧🇾 Belarus is Unstable\n🇧🇪 Belgium is Stable\n🇧🇿 Belize is Weak\n🇧🇯 Benin is Weak\n🇧🇹 Bhutan is Stable\n🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak\n🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak\n🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable\n🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak\n🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable\n🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Weak\n🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable\n🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak\n🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak\n🇨🇲 Cameroon is Weak\n🇨🇦 Canada is Stable\n🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable\n🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable\n🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable\n🇨🇱 Chile is Stable\n🇨🇳 China is Stable\n🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak\n🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak\n🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable\n🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable\n🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak\n🇨🇾 Cyprus is Stable\n🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable\n🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable\n🇩🇰 Den\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/11/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-35ca/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"nato-chief-ukraine-territory-on-table-four-al-jazeera-journalists-killed-by-idf-uganda-denies-besigye-bail-in-treason-case\"\u003eNATO Chief: Ukraine Territory \u0026lsquo;On Table\u0026rsquo;, Four Al Jazeera Journalists Killed by IDF, Uganda Denies Besigye Bail in Treason Case\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory \u0026lsquo;On Table\u0026rsquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week\u0026rsquo;s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska may open negotiations about Ukrainian territory, suggesting Ukraine could acknowledge Russia\u0026rsquo;s de facto control without formal sovereignty recognition. Rutte\u0026rsquo;s comments come as European leaders conduct \u0026ldquo;frenetic rounds\u0026rdquo; of virtual meetings to devise strategy before Friday\u0026rsquo;s summit, fearing Ukraine could be pressured into accepting significant territorial losses. Vice President JD Vance expects a \u0026ldquo;very simple\u0026rdquo; outcome based on current battle lines, while Zelensky maintains Ukraine \u0026ldquo;won\u0026rsquo;t - and constitutionally can\u0026rsquo;t - cede territory,\u0026rdquo; warning against accepting Putin\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;spin\u0026rdquo; on negotiations as European officials reaffirm that \u0026ldquo;international borders must not be changed by force.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-10/nato-chief-sees-ukrainian-land-on-the-table-as-trump-meets-putin\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Israel Plans Gaza City Occupation, Europe Seeks Rare Earth Independence Good morning.\n🇵🇸 Israel Plans Gaza City Occupation\nIsrael\u0026rsquo;s security cabinet approved Prime Minister Netanyahu\u0026rsquo;s plan for military occupation of Gaza City, marking a major escalation that will force tens of thousands of starving residents to evacuate by October 7. An Israeli official said the operation involves displacing \u0026ldquo;all Palestinian civilians from Gaza City to the central camps\u0026rdquo; while imposing a siege on Hamas militants and launching a ground offensive. UK Prime Minister Starmer called the plan \u0026ldquo;wrong,\u0026rdquo; saying it \u0026ldquo;will only bring more bloodshed,\u0026rdquo; while Hamas accused Netanyahu of abandoning hostages to serve his \u0026ldquo;personal interests and extremist ideological agenda\u0026rdquo; as nearly 200 Palestinians have died from starvation in the famine-stricken territory. More - Al Jazeera\n🇪🇺 Europe Seeks Rare Earth Independence\nEurope is expanding rare earth metal production to reduce dependence on China, which controls 70% of mining and 90% of refining, led by Belgium\u0026rsquo;s Solvay expanding its La Rochelle plant - one of only two processing facilities in Europe. The French facility aims to provide 30% of Europe\u0026rsquo;s rare earth needs by 2030 through recycling, supported by €20 million in French government tax credits as part of the EU\u0026rsquo;s Critical Raw Materials Act targeting supply chain diversification. CEO Philippe Kehren says customers must commit to buying European rare earths at higher prices to make the expansion viable, as Western firms need more government support to compete with Chinese rivals who have been more willing to handle radioactive pollution from processing. More - BBC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is grappling with significant challenges in its critical minerals sector, exacerbated by tariffs imposed by the United States. Critics argue that these backdoor tariffs, enforced under the Trump administration, are obstructing the flow of essential minerals from the DRC, severely impacting the local economy. As global competition for these critical resources intensifies, the DRC\u0026rsquo;s capacity to extract and export minerals is vital for its economic development. Calls for Washington to prioritize transparency and sanctions in Congolese mineral deals have emerged, emphasizing the need for responsible and sustainable practices in the industry [SOURCE - Forbes].\nIn Algeria, a regional diplomatic overture by Morocco\u0026rsquo;s King Mohammed VI aims to prevent geopolitical conflicts from spilling into North Africa. This initiative is seen as a crucial step towards maintaining stability in the region. Concurrently, Algeria, as a member of OPEC+, has agreed to increase oil production significantly, despite facing new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on numerous countries, including Algeria. This dual challenge of boosting production while navigating tariffs poses a complex dilemma for the Algerian economy [[SOURCE - Times of India]](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/talkingturkey/a-sagacious-appeal-moroccos-king-mohammed-vis-overture-to-algeria-is-a-wise-move-to-prevent-geopolitical-conflict-from-spreading-to-north-\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/08/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-9f52/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-plans-gaza-city-occupation-europe-seeks-rare-earth-independence\"\u003eIsrael Plans Gaza City Occupation, Europe Seeks Rare Earth Independence\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸 Israel Plans Gaza City Occupation\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael\u0026rsquo;s security cabinet approved Prime Minister Netanyahu\u0026rsquo;s plan for military occupation of Gaza City, marking a major escalation that will force tens of thousands of starving residents to evacuate by October 7. An Israeli official said the operation involves displacing \u0026ldquo;all Palestinian civilians from Gaza City to the central camps\u0026rdquo; while imposing a siege on Hamas militants and launching a ground offensive. UK Prime Minister Starmer called the plan \u0026ldquo;wrong,\u0026rdquo; saying it \u0026ldquo;will only bring more bloodshed,\u0026rdquo; while Hamas accused Netanyahu of abandoning hostages to serve his \u0026ldquo;personal interests and extremist ideological agenda\u0026rdquo; as nearly 200 Palestinians have died from starvation in the famine-stricken territory. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/8/israeli-security-cabinet-approves-plan-to-occupy-gaza-city-report\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Trump-Putin-Zelensky Summit Planned, Trump Plans 100% Chip Tariffs 🇺🇦 Trump, Putin, Zelensky Talks Planned\nPresident Trump said there\u0026rsquo;s a \u0026ldquo;good chance\u0026rdquo; he could meet with Putin and Zelensky after calling talks between his envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian leader \u0026ldquo;very good,\u0026rdquo; though he provided no details on timing or conditions. The Kremlin described the Moscow discussions as \u0026ldquo;constructive\u0026rdquo; with both sides exchanging \u0026ldquo;signals,\u0026rdquo; while the White House said Russia expressed desire to meet Trump who remains \u0026ldquo;open to meeting with both leaders.\u0026rdquo; The optimism comes despite muted expectations for Friday\u0026rsquo;s ceasefire deadline, with Trump simultaneously imposing an additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil and Russia continuing large-scale air attacks on Ukraine including a deadly strike on a Zaporizhzhia holiday camp. More - BBC\n🇺🇸 Trump Plans 100% Chip Tariffs\nPresident Trump announced a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports but will exempt companies building in the US, as Apple CEO Tim Cook unveiled a $100 billion American investment plan from the Oval Office. The exemption represents a major victory for Apple and other tech giants like Nvidia that have committed to US production, though many chipmakers still rely on complex global supply chains centered in East Asia. Cook\u0026rsquo;s investment includes a new manufacturing program with suppliers like Corning, which will dedicate an entire Kentucky factory to Apple glass production, bringing the company\u0026rsquo;s total US commitment to $600 billion over four years while helping avoid tariffs on iPhones primarily made in India.\nMore - Bloomberg\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary Singapore is poised to enhance its economic competitiveness through a comprehensive review aimed at identifying new opportunities amid shifting technological and geopolitical landscapes. This initiative comes as the nation prepares to restrict entry to high-risk travelers starting in 2026, reflecting a proactive approach to public health and safety [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior]. Concurrently, Singapore-based RGE has announced a substantial investment of ₹4,953 crore in a manmade fiber plant in Tamil Nadu, India, signaling a commitment to bolster industrial growth in the region [SOURCE - The Hindu].\nIn the realm of defense, the navies of India and Singapore have successfully concluded their SIMBEX exercise, underscoring the importance of maritime cooperation in the face of regional tensions. This follows India\u0026rsquo;s participation in joint war games with Singapore, further solidifying defense ties amidst growing concerns over Chinese military activities in the South China Sea [SOURCE - The Hindu].\nIn a bid to strengthen economic ties, Pakistan and China have agreed to a new cooperation pact, while India has surpassed China in gold jewelry demand during the first half of the year [SOURCE - Pakistan Today].\nThe geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the evolving dynamics between the US and China. Recent analyses suggest that the US\u0026rsquo;s leverage over China is dimi\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/07/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-b143/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trump-putin-zelensky-summit-planned-trump-plans-100-chip-tariffs\"\u003eTrump-Putin-Zelensky Summit Planned, Trump Plans 100% Chip Tariffs\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 Trump, Putin, Zelensky Talks Planned\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePresident Trump said there\u0026rsquo;s a \u0026ldquo;good chance\u0026rdquo; he could meet with Putin and Zelensky after calling talks between his envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian leader \u0026ldquo;very good,\u0026rdquo; though he provided no details on timing or conditions. The Kremlin described the Moscow discussions as \u0026ldquo;constructive\u0026rdquo; with both sides exchanging \u0026ldquo;signals,\u0026rdquo; while the White House said Russia expressed desire to meet Trump who remains \u0026ldquo;open to meeting with both leaders.\u0026rdquo; The optimism comes despite muted expectations for Friday\u0026rsquo;s ceasefire deadline, with Trump simultaneously imposing an additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil and Russia continuing large-scale air attacks on Ukraine including a deadly strike on a Zaporizhzhia holiday camp. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5rdl1y8ndo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Russia Considers Air Truce Offer, Reports: Netanyahu Plans Full Gaza Reoccupation, BLS Worries Threaten $2 Trillion Treasuries Market, Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Amid Lebanon Push Good morning.\n🇺🇦 Russia Considers Air Truce Offer\nRussia is weighing an air truce with Ukraine as a potential concession to Trump ahead of US envoy Steve Witkoff\u0026rsquo;s visit this week, though Moscow remains determined to continue the war without a general ceasefire. The proposal could involve pausing drone and missile strikes as a deescalation gesture, provided Ukraine also agrees, as Putin seeks to avoid threatened secondary sanctions while his forces continue battlefield advances. Trump has grown frustrated with Putin\u0026rsquo;s refusal to agree to ceasefire during six phone calls since February, threatening heavy tariffs on countries buying Russian oil starting Friday, while Belarus President Lukashenko publicly raised the \u0026ldquo;air truce\u0026rdquo; concept during recent remarks with Putin. More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸 Reports: Netanyahu Plans Full Gaza Reoccupation\nReports indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will propose fully reoccupying the Gaza Strip to his security cabinet despite opposition from military chiefs, with a senior official saying \u0026ldquo;we\u0026rsquo;re going for the full conquest of Gaza Strip - and defeating Hamas.\u0026rdquo; The plan faces criticism from hostage families fearing for 20 captives believed alive, 600 retired security officials urging Trump to pressure Netanyahu, and polls showing three-quarters of Israelis favor a ceasefire deal instead. The proposal comes after ceasefire talks collapsed and Hamas released videos of emaciated Israeli hostages, while Israel currently controls 75% of Gaza where 90% of 2.1 million Palestinians have been displaced and humanitarian groups warn of starvation. More - BBC\n🇺🇸 BLS Worries Threaten $2 Trillion Treasuries Market\nThe $2 trillion market for Treasury inflation-protected securities faces \u0026ldquo;enormous risk\u0026rdquo; if the Bureau of Labor Statistics becomes politicized, bond investors warn after Trump fired BLS chief Erika McEntarfer following a weak jobs report. TIPS bonds adjust their face value based on consumer price index data calculated by the BLS, making trust in government statistics crucial for the market\u0026rsquo;s integrity. JPMorgan\u0026rsquo;s chief US economist noted that \u0026ldquo;even seemingly innocuous technical changes\u0026rdquo; to CPI calculation methods could significantly impact inflation readings, with EU methodology potentially reducing annual inflation by 20 basis points. More - Bloomberg\n🇱🇧 Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Amid Lebanon Push\nHezbollah leader Naim Qassem declared the group will not lay down weapons under Israeli fire, saying resistance to Israel must be discussed through national consensus rather than imposed timelines, as Lebanon\u0026rsquo;s cabinet announced the army will bring all arms under state control by year\u0026rsquo;s end. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam affirmed \u0026ldquo;the state\u0026rsquo;s duty to monopolize the possession of weapons\u0026rdquo; after a six-hour cabinet meeting, while Qassem warned missiles would \u0026ldquo;rain down on Israel\u0026rdquo; if it resumed broad warfare. The standoff comes amid US pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah despite the group\u0026rsquo;s weakened but still significant military and political power following last year\u0026rsquo;s devastating war with Israel. More - Al Jazeera\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 S\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/06/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-de56/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"russia-considers-air-truce-offer-reports-netanyahu-plans-full-gaza-reoccupation-bls-worries-threaten-2-trillion-treasuries-market-hezbollah-rejects-disarmament-amid-lebanon-push\"\u003eRussia Considers Air Truce Offer, Reports: Netanyahu Plans Full Gaza Reoccupation, BLS Worries Threaten $2 Trillion Treasuries Market, Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Amid Lebanon Push\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 Russia Considers Air Truce Offer\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia is weighing an air truce with Ukraine as a potential concession to Trump ahead of US envoy Steve Witkoff\u0026rsquo;s visit this week, though Moscow remains determined to continue the war without a general ceasefire. The proposal could involve pausing drone and missile strikes as a deescalation gesture, provided Ukraine also agrees, as Putin seeks to avoid threatened secondary sanctions while his forces continue battlefield advances. Trump has grown frustrated with Putin\u0026rsquo;s refusal to agree to ceasefire during six phone calls since February, threatening heavy tariffs on countries buying Russian oil starting Friday, while Belarus President Lukashenko publicly raised the \u0026ldquo;air truce\u0026rdquo; concept during recent remarks with Putin. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/russia-weighs-ukraine-air-truce-offer-to-trump-without-ending-war\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike, Brazil Orders Bolsonaro House Arrest, DRC-Rwanda Economic Framework Agreed Good morning,\n🇮🇳 Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike\nPresident Trump vowed to \u0026ldquo;substantially raise\u0026rdquo; tariffs on Indian exports beyond the current 25% rate over India\u0026rsquo;s purchases of Russian oil, saying New Delhi profits from reselling discounted Russian crude on global markets. India\u0026rsquo;s foreign ministry slammed the targeting as \u0026ldquo;unjustified and unreasonable,\u0026rdquo; noting it began buying Russian oil after traditional supplies were diverted to Europe and the US \u0026ldquo;encouraged such imports.\u0026rdquo; The escalation comes ahead of Trump\u0026rsquo;s August 8 deadline for Russia to reach a Ukraine truce, with secondary sanctions threatened against countries buying Russian energy as India has become a major buyer at 1.7 million barrels daily. More - Bloomberg\n🇧🇷 Brazil Orders Bolsonaro House Arrest\nBrazil\u0026rsquo;s Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest for allegedly violating restrictions by using allies\u0026rsquo; social media accounts to spread messages encouraging attacks on the court and foreign intervention in Brazil\u0026rsquo;s judiciary. Judge Alexandre de Moraes also banned Bolsonaro from receiving visits except from lawyers, using mobile phones, and contacting his son Eduardo who has lobbied US officials on his behalf. The restrictions followed allegations Bolsonaro was encouraging Trump to interfere in his coup trial case, which Trump has called a \u0026ldquo;witch-hunt\u0026rdquo; and used to justify imposing 50% tariffs on some Brazilian goods despite the US having a trade surplus with Brazil. More - BBC\n🇨🇩 🇷🇼 DRC-Rwanda Economic Framework Agreed\nThe Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda agreed on an economic cooperation framework covering energy, infrastructure, mineral supply chains, national parks and public health as part of their June peace deal implementation. The US-brokered agreement affirms each country has \u0026ldquo;full, sovereign control\u0026rdquo; over natural resource exploitation and commits to ensuring minerals trade no longer funds armed groups while creating a world-class industrial mining sector. Human Rights Watch called it \u0026ldquo;a mineral deal first, an opportunity for peace second,\u0026rdquo; linking economic integration with billions in promised Western investment, though key security commitments remain unfulfilled 30 days after the original deal signing. More - Al Jazeera\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary The imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by the Trump administration has ignited widespread protests across Brazil, with citizens expressing their discontent over the trade war [SOURCE - Economic Times]. In response, Brazil has engaged legal representation to contest what it deems an \u0026ldquo;injustice\u0026rdquo; and has requested exemptions for food products and the Embraer aircraft from the tariff hikes [SOURCE - Rio Times].\nIn the energy sector, Brazil is pivoting towards natural gas, with the largest plant in Latin America poised to transform the country\u0026rsquo;s energy la\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/05/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-d77f/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trump-threatens-india-tariff-hike-brazil-orders-bolsonaro-house-arrest-drc-rwanda-economic-framework-agreed\"\u003eTrump Threatens India Tariff Hike, Brazil Orders Bolsonaro House Arrest, DRC-Rwanda Economic Framework Agreed\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇳 Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePresident Trump vowed to \u0026ldquo;substantially raise\u0026rdquo; tariffs on Indian exports beyond the current 25% rate over India\u0026rsquo;s purchases of Russian oil, saying New Delhi profits from reselling discounted Russian crude on global markets. India\u0026rsquo;s foreign ministry slammed the targeting as \u0026ldquo;unjustified and unreasonable,\u0026rdquo; noting it began buying Russian oil after traditional supplies were diverted to Europe and the US \u0026ldquo;encouraged such imports.\u0026rdquo; The escalation comes ahead of Trump\u0026rsquo;s August 8 deadline for Russia to reach a Ukraine truce, with secondary sanctions threatened against countries buying Russian energy as India has become a major buyer at 1.7 million barrels daily. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-04/trump-says-us-to-hike-india-s-tariffs-over-russian-oil-purchases\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger, Colombian Ex-President Uribe SentencedEl Salvador Scraps Term Limits Good morning.\n🛢️OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger\nOPEC+ completed a two-year oil strategy chapter by approving a final 547,000 barrel-per-day production increase, reversing massive 2023 supply cuts one year ahead of schedule to reclaim market share. The group left traders uncertain about another 1.66 million barrels daily that remain offline until 2026, with delegates saying \u0026ldquo;all options remain on the table\u0026rdquo; including further increases, pausing, or even reversing recent policy. With oil futures down 6.7% this year near $70 and forecasters predicting a slide toward $60, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ will likely pause output increases as global markets face a projected 2 million barrel-per-day surplus in Q4. More - Bloomberg\n🇨🇴 Colombian Ex-President Uribe Sentenced\nFormer Colombian President Alvaro Uribe was sentenced to 12 years of house arrest, a $578,000 fine, and an eight-year public office ban following his conviction for witness tampering and bribery. The 73-year-old becomes the first former Colombian president found guilty in a criminal trial, stemming from his attempts to pressure paramilitary witnesses to change testimony in a case involving his alleged ties to right-wing paramilitaries. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Uribe as a victim of \u0026ldquo;weaponization\u0026rdquo; by \u0026ldquo;radical judges,\u0026rdquo; while Democrats accused Trump of supporting impunity for strongmen, as the conviction comes less than a year before Colombia\u0026rsquo;s 2026 presidential elections. More - Al Jazeera\n🇸🇻 El Salvador Scraps Term Limits\nEl Salvador\u0026rsquo;s congress abolished presidential term limits in a swift constitutional reform, allowing President Nayib Bukele to seek unlimited re-election while extending terms from five to six years. The reform passed with 57 votes from Bukele\u0026rsquo;s New Ideas party against only three opposition members, with the next election moved up to 2027 to synchronize all electoral cycles. Opposition MP Marcela Villatoro declared \u0026ldquo;democracy has died in El Salvador,\u0026rdquo; while human rights groups criticized the lack of public debate and warned of indefinite power consolidation by the popular but controversial leader whose anti-gang crackdown has led to 75,000 arrests under extended emergency measures. More - BBC\nGlobal Stability Ratings 🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Critically Unstable\n🇦🇱 Albania is Stable\n🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\n🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\n🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\n🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\n🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak\n🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\n🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\n🇦🇹 Austria is Stable\n🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Stable\n🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\n🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak\n🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable\n🇧🇾 Belarus is Unstable\n🇧🇪 Belgium is Stable\n🇧🇿 Belize is Weak\n🇧🇯 Benin is Weak\n🇧🇹 Bhutan is Weak\n🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak\n🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina is Weak\n🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable\n🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak\n🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable\n🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Weak\n🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable\n🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak\n🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak\n🇨🇲 Cameroon is Weak\n🇨🇦 Canada is Weak\n🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable\n🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable\n🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable\n🇨🇱 Chile is Weak\n🇨🇳 China is Stable\n🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak\n🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak\n🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Weak\n🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable\n🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak\n🇨🇾 Cyprus is Stable\n🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable\n🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable\n🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable\n🇩🇯 Djibouti is Weak\n🇩🇲 Dominica is Stable\n🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Weak\n🇹🇱 East Timor is Stable\n🇪🇨 Ecuador is Weak\n🇪🇬 Egypt is Weak\n🇸🇻 El Salvador is Weak\n🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable\n🇪🇷 Eritrea is Unstable\n🇪🇪 Estonia is Stable\n🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak\n🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Unstable\n🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Stable\n🇫🇯 Fiji is Weak\n🇫🇮 Finland is Stable\n🇫🇷 France is Weak\n🇬🇦 Gabon is Un\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/04/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-b633/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"opec-ends-strategy-chapter-with-cliffhanger-colombian-ex-president-uribe-sentencedel-salvador-scraps-term-limits\"\u003eOPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger, Colombian Ex-President Uribe SentencedEl Salvador Scraps Term Limits\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛢️OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOPEC+ completed a two-year oil strategy chapter by approving a final 547,000 barrel-per-day production increase, reversing massive 2023 supply cuts one year ahead of schedule to reclaim market share. The group left traders uncertain about another 1.66 million barrels daily that remain offline until 2026, with delegates saying \u0026ldquo;all options remain on the table\u0026rdquo; including further increases, pausing, or even reversing recent policy. With oil futures down 6.7% this year near $70 and forecasters predicting a slide toward $60, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ will likely pause output increases as global markets face a projected 2 million barrel-per-day surplus in Q4. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-03/opec-leaves-traders-with-cliffhanger-as-tumultuous-chapter-ends\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect, US Envoy Visits Gaza Aid Sites Good morning and happy August.\n🇺🇸 Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect\nTrump\u0026rsquo;s tariff blitz pushed average US levies to 15% - roughly six times higher than a year ago and the steepest since the 1930s - with rates ranging from 10% baseline to punitive levels like 39% for Switzerland. Bloomberg Economics estimates the tariff hike could cut US GDP by 1.8% and lift core prices by 1.1% over two to three years, creating a \u0026ldquo;serious demand shock\u0026rdquo; for the global economy according to former IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan. Markets responded more mutedly than April\u0026rsquo;s initial shock, but economists warn greater pass-through to US consumers lies ahead as the \u0026ldquo;universal\u0026rdquo; nature of tariffs makes it harder for exporters to absorb costs. More - Bloomberg\nBloomberg also has a comprehensive list of country and sector tariff rates here.\n🇵🇸 US Envoy Visits Gaza Aid Sites\nUS special envoy Steve Witkoff is visiting Gaza aid distribution sites with Ambassador Mike Huckabee to assess the \u0026ldquo;dire situation\u0026rdquo; as pressure mounts on Israel over its starvation policy that has killed over 1,000 Palestinians seeking food since May. Human Rights Watch called Israel\u0026rsquo;s use of starvation a \u0026ldquo;war crime,\u0026rdquo; saying Israeli forces are \u0026ldquo;deliberately starving Palestinian civilians\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;gunning them down almost every day\u0026rdquo; at US-backed distribution sites. The visit comes as Gaza health officials reported 154 confirmed deaths from \u0026ldquo;famine and malnutrition,\u0026rdquo; including 89 children, while UN experts say \u0026ldquo;famine is now unfolding.\u0026rdquo; Notably, Trump has contradicted Netanyahu’s denial of food shortages, stating that Gaza faces \u0026ldquo;real starvation.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\nObservation\nThere’s no reading of the Geneva Conventions or any associated laws of war that permit what’s happening in Gaza. Militaries, particularly occupying powers, have extensive obligations to provide food, water, sanitation and medical support to the local population. (See the US DoD’s Law of War Manual for an example of the guidance.) It’s one of the first things you are taught when you join the military and something you review and retrain on regularly.\nHowever, Israeli officials have been stating publicly for months that restrictions on food and aid into Gaza are a deliberate strategy of collective punishment. What is happening is well understood and no accident.\nThis is clearly horrific for the people of Gaza, and even if restrictions were lifted tomorrow, the long-term effects of malnutrition are generational. But the IDF’s scorched-earth policy in Gaza will also have long-term damaging effects on Israel. More and more countries are condening its policies in Gaza and even tranches of the US right-wing MAGA movement - a group that should be reliably supportive of Israel no matter what it does - are turning against Israel. There are no winners here but this eroding international support, particularly in the US, should be giving the Israeli leaders pause for thought.\nI keep commentary to a minimum in these SITREPS as the intent is to provide an facts-based, objective view of events that can be applied to your own decision-making. However, there are occassions where simply reporting on events is insufficient.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/08/01/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-a8f1/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"full-range-of-trump-tariffs-come-into-effect-us-envoy-visits-gaza-aid-sites\"\u003eFull Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect, US Envoy Visits Gaza Aid Sites\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning and happy August.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸 Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTrump\u0026rsquo;s tariff blitz pushed average US levies to 15% - roughly six times higher than a year ago and the steepest since the 1930s - with rates ranging from 10% baseline to punitive levels like 39% for Switzerland. Bloomberg Economics estimates the tariff hike could cut US GDP by 1.8% and lift core prices by 1.1% over two to three years, creating a \u0026ldquo;serious demand shock\u0026rdquo; for the global economy according to former IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan. Markets responded more mutedly than April\u0026rsquo;s initial shock, but economists warn greater pass-through to US consumers lies ahead as the \u0026ldquo;universal\u0026rdquo; nature of tariffs makes it harder for exporters to absorb costs. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/trump-s-tariff-blitz-unleashes-delayed-shock-to-global-economy\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Ukraine parliament votes to restore anti-corruption agencies, Sudan Camp Children Die From Hunger, Trump\u0026rsquo;s Tariff Deadline Frenzy Andrew Sheves Good morning\n🇺🇦 Ukraine parliament votes to restore anti-corruption agencies\nThis story is just breaking at the time of writing. Read more on Al Jazeera\n🇸🇩** Sudan Camp Children Die From Hunger**\nThirteen children died last month from severe food shortages at Lagawa displacement camp in Sudan\u0026rsquo;s East Darfur state, medics reported, as famine spreads through the war-torn region. The Sudan Doctors Network documented \u0026ldquo;deteriorating humanitarian conditions\u0026rdquo; and widespread malnutrition at the camp housing 7,000 people, which has faced repeated attacks by armed groups. The deaths highlight Sudan\u0026rsquo;s deepening humanitarian crisis after 27 months of civil war between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, with nearly a million people now in famine conditions and cholera outbreaks spreading in Darfur. More - BBC\n🇺🇸** Trump\u0026rsquo;s Tariff Deadline Frenzy**\nPresident Trump unleashed a series of last-minute tariff deals and demands on the eve of his Friday deadline, imposing 15% tariffs on South Korea and a punitive 25% rate on India while criticizing Modi\u0026rsquo;s Russian energy purchases. Trump shocked copper markets by exempting widely-traded forms from 50% tariffs, while announcing deals are pending for Thailand and Cambodia following their ceasefire and Taiwan after reaching \u0026ldquo;consensus.\u0026rdquo; The flurry comes as most countries lack trade deals ahead of Trump\u0026rsquo;s August 1 deadline for reciprocal levies ranging from 15-50%, with South Korea and Japan both securing $350 billion investment funds where 90% of profits flow back to the US. More - Bloomberg\n*Note - significant uncertainty remains over the details of many of these deals and the sector-specific tariffs so, despite the flurry of tariff letters, Q3 and 4 are likely to remain volatile as the details of each arrangement become clear. *\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇮🇳 India, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary In the realm of international relations, tensions have escalated between Thailand and Cambodia, with armed clashes reported along their shared border. This conflict has resulted in civilian casualties and the displacement of thousands, prompting international calls for res\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/31/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-84d5/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ukraine-parliament-votes-to-restore-anti-corruption-agencies-sudan-camp-children-die-from-hunger-trumps-tariff-deadline-frenzy\"\u003eUkraine parliament votes to restore anti-corruption agencies, Sudan Camp Children Die From Hunger, Trump\u0026rsquo;s Tariff Deadline Frenzy\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eUkraine parliament votes to restore anti-corruption agencies\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis story is just breaking at the time of writing. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/31/ukraine-parliament-votes-to-restore-anti-corruption-agencies-after-protests\"\u003eRead more on Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇸🇩** Sudan Camp Children Die From Hunger**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThirteen children died last month from severe food shortages at Lagawa displacement camp in Sudan\u0026rsquo;s East Darfur state, medics reported, as famine spreads through the war-torn region. The Sudan Doctors Network documented \u0026ldquo;deteriorating humanitarian conditions\u0026rdquo; and widespread malnutrition at the camp housing 7,000 people, which has faced repeated attacks by armed groups. The deaths highlight Sudan\u0026rsquo;s deepening humanitarian crisis after 27 months of civil war between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, with nearly a million people now in famine conditions and cholera outbreaks spreading in Darfur. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2en72kvy00o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum, UK to Recognize Palestine by September, Pacific Tsunami Alert After Russia Quake Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇦** Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum**\nRussian forces killed 25 people in overnight strikes on Ukraine, including 17 inmates when glide bombs hit Bilenke prison and three people at a Kamianske hospital including a 23-year-old pregnant woman named Diana. The attacks come as Trump toughened his truce ultimatum to Russia, reducing the previous 50-day deadline issued to Putin earlier this month during his UK visit. Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s human rights commissioner called the prison attack a gross violation of humanitarian law, while five more people were killed in Kharkiv region as villagers gathered for humanitarian aid near a local shop that was destroyed by rocket fire. More - BBC\n🇵🇸** UK to Recognize Palestine by September**\nBritish Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK will recognize Palestine by September unless Israel takes \u0026ldquo;substantive steps\u0026rdquo; to end its Gaza war, commits to a ceasefire, halts West Bank annexation plans, and supports a two-state solution. The ultimatum follows an emergency cabinet meeting and represents a major shift from previous UK governments that delayed recognition citing the need for \u0026ldquo;the right time.\u0026rdquo; Israel criticized the move as a \u0026ldquo;reward for Hamas\u0026rdquo; that would undermine diplomacy, while Palestinian Ambassador Husam Zomlot said UK recognition would hold \u0026ldquo;particular historical and moral weight\u0026rdquo; in addressing injustices rooted in the colonial-era Balfour Declaration. More - Al Jazeera\n⚠️ Pacific Tsunami Alert After Russia Quake\nA magnitude 8.8 earthquake off Russia\u0026rsquo;s Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday morning local time triggered tsunami alerts across the Pacific, with four-foot waves recorded in Hawaii and initial signs detected in California and Indonesia. The strongest global earthquake since 2011 prompted evacuations from Japan to Hawaii, where Governor Josh Green warned waves would \u0026ldquo;wrap around the islands\u0026rdquo; and urged immediate coastal evacuation. Japan\u0026rsquo;s Prime Minister Ishiba cautioned that \u0026ldquo;second, third and fourth waves could be much bigger\u0026rdquo; than the first, while some alerts were later downgraded as the impact proved less severe than initially feared, though authorities remained vigilant. More - Bloomberg\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Cz\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/30/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-1a6d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"russia-strikes-ukraine-as-trump-restates-ultimatum-uk-to-recognize-palestine-by-september-pacific-tsunami-alert-after-russia-quake\"\u003eRussia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum, UK to Recognize Palestine by September, Pacific Tsunami Alert After Russia Quake\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦** Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussian forces killed 25 people in overnight strikes on Ukraine, including 17 inmates when glide bombs hit Bilenke prison and three people at a Kamianske hospital including a 23-year-old pregnant woman named Diana. The attacks come as Trump toughened his truce ultimatum to Russia, reducing the previous 50-day deadline issued to Putin earlier this month during his UK visit. Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s human rights commissioner called the prison attack a gross violation of humanitarian law, while five more people were killed in Kharkiv region as villagers gathered for humanitarian aid near a local shop that was destroyed by rocket fire. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj0y45mdjp7o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Thailand Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach, “Worst Case” Famine in Gaza: UN Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇹🇭 🇰🇭** Thailand Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach**\nThailand accused Cambodia of violating a hours-old ceasefire just after it took effect at midnight Tuesday, though Cambodia said there were \u0026ldquo;no armed clashes\u0026rdquo; since the truce began following intense fighting up to the deadline. The ceasefire followed escalating border conflict that began in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed, intensifying last week after five Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine and Cambodia fired rockets into Thailand killing civilians. The truce was brokered by Malaysia after Trump threatened to halt tariff negotiations until the Southeast Asian neighbors stopped fighting, with both sides agreeing to pull back armies and accept independent monitoring.\nMore - BBC\n🇵🇸 “Worst Case” Famine in Gaza: UN\nThe UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) issued a warning that the “Worst-case scenario of Famine unfolding in the Gaza Strip”\nThe worst-case scenario of Famine is currently playing out in the Gaza Strip. Conflict and displacement have intensified, and access to food and other essential items and services has plummeted to unprecedented levels.\nMounting evidence shows that widespread starvation, malnutrition, and disease are driving a rise in hunger-related deaths. Latest data indicates that Famine thresholds have been reached for food consumption in most of the Gaza Strip and for acute malnutrition in Gaza City.\nMalnutrition has been rising rapidly in the first half of July. Over 20,000 children have been admitted for treatment for acute malnutrition between April and mid-July, with more than 3,000 severely malnourished. Hospitals have reported a rapid increase in hunger-related deaths of children under five years of age, with at least 16 reported deaths since 17 July.\nImmediate action must be taken to end the hostilities and allow for unimpeded, large-scale, life-saving humanitarian response. This is the only path to stopping further deaths and catastrophic human suffering.\nIPC Full Alert and factsheet\n*Comment. This puts Gaza into the same food insecurity category as Darfur and the conflict regions of South Sudan: two other conflicts where deliberate food restrictions are being used as a weapon. *\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\n**Region Carpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/29/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-e9cc/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"thailand-accuses-cambodia-of-ceasefire-breach-worst-case-famine-in-gaza-un\"\u003eThailand Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach, “Worst Case” Famine in Gaza: UN\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇹🇭 🇰🇭** Thailand Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThailand accused Cambodia of violating a hours-old ceasefire just after it took effect at midnight Tuesday, though Cambodia said there were \u0026ldquo;no armed clashes\u0026rdquo; since the truce began following intense fighting up to the deadline. The ceasefire followed escalating border conflict that began in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed, intensifying last week after five Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine and Cambodia fired rockets into Thailand killing civilians. The truce was brokered by Malaysia after Trump threatened to halt tariff negotiations until the Southeast Asian neighbors stopped fighting, with both sides agreeing to pull back armies and accept independent monitoring.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇹🇼** Taiwan Recall Election Fails, Boosts China**\nAll 24 Kuomintang lawmakers survived recall elections in Taiwan, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te\u0026rsquo;s Democratic Progressive Party and preserving the opposition\u0026rsquo;s 62-51 legislative majority that blocks defense spending increases. The landslide defeat hands Beijing new ammunition to claim Lai lacks popular support, with China\u0026rsquo;s Taiwan Affairs Office saying the results show the DPP\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;political manipulation\u0026rdquo; lacks backing. Analysts warn the outcome may embolden Beijing\u0026rsquo;s pressure campaign while removing incentives for opposition lawmakers to moderate positions on military spending that Trump has demanded Taiwan increase for US protection. More - Bloomberg\n🇪🇺** 🇺🇸 EU-US Trade Deal**\nThe EU and US agreed a trade deal imposing 15% tariffs on European exports to America after \u0026ldquo;tough negotiations\u0026rdquo; between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at Trump\u0026rsquo;s Scottish golf course. The agreement includes EU commitments to boost US investment by $600 billion, purchase hundreds of billions in American military equipment, and spend $750 billion on US energy including liquified natural gas to reduce European reliance on Russian power sources. The deal represents a compromise for both sides, with the EU avoiding worse tariffs while the US expects roughly $90 billion in tariff revenue plus massive investment inflows. More - BBC\nGlobal Stability Ratings 🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable\n🇦🇱 Albania is Weak\n🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\n🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\n🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\n🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\n🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak\n🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\n🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\n🇦🇹 Austria is Stable\n🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak\n🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\n🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak\n🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable\n🇧🇾 Belarus is Unstable\n🇧🇪 Belgium is Weak\n🇧🇿 Belize is Weak\n🇧🇯 Benin is Weak\n🇧🇹 Bhutan is Stable\n🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak\n🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina is Weak\n🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable\n🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak\n🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable\n🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Weak\n🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable\n🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak\n🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak\n🇨🇲 Cameroon is Weak\n🇨🇦 Canada is Weak\n🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable\n🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable\n🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable\n🇨🇱 Chile is Stable\n🇨🇳 China is Stable\n🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak\n🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak\n🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable\n🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable\n🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak\n🇨🇾 Cyprus is Stable\n🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable\n🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable\n🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable\n🇩🇯 Djibouti is Weak\n🇩🇲 Dominica is Stable\n🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Weak\n🇹🇱 East Timor is Stable\n🇪🇨 Ecuador is Weak\n🇪🇬 Egypt is Weak\n🇸🇻 El Salvador is Unstable\n🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable\n🇪🇷 Eritrea is Unstable\n🇪🇪 Estonia is Stable\n🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak\n🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Weak\n🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Stable\n🇫🇯 Fiji is Stable\n🇫🇮 Finland is Stable\n🇫🇷 France is Weak\n🇬🇦 Gabon is Unstable\n🇬🇪 Georgia is Weak\n🇩🇪 Germany is Stable\n🇬🇭 Ghana is Stable\n🇬🇷 Greece is Weak\n🇬🇩 Grenada is Stable\n🇬🇹 Guatemala is Weak\n🇬🇳 Guinea is Unstable\n🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau is Unstable\n🇬🇾 Guyana is Stable\n🇭🇹 Haiti is Unstable\n🇭🇳 Honduras is Unstable\n🇭🇺 Hungary is Weak\n🇮🇸 Iceland is Stable\n🇮🇳 India is Stable\n🇮🇩 Indonesia is Weak\n🇮🇷 Iran is Weak\n🇮🇶 Iraq is Unstable\n🇮🇪\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/28/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-436a/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇹🇼** Taiwan Recall Election Fails, Boosts China**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll 24 Kuomintang lawmakers survived recall elections in Taiwan, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te\u0026rsquo;s Democratic Progressive Party and preserving the opposition\u0026rsquo;s 62-51 legislative majority that blocks defense spending increases. The landslide defeat hands Beijing new ammunition to claim Lai lacks popular support, with China\u0026rsquo;s Taiwan Affairs Office saying the results show the DPP\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;political manipulation\u0026rdquo; lacks backing. Analysts warn the outcome may embolden Beijing\u0026rsquo;s pressure campaign while removing incentives for opposition lawmakers to moderate positions on military spending that Trump has demanded Taiwan increase for US protection. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-27/failed-bid-to-oust-taiwan-opposition-gives-china-new-leverage\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse, Thai-Cambodia Conflict Explainer Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇵🇸** France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse**\nFrench President Macron announced France will recognize Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September, making it the largest European country to do so amid growing anger over Israel\u0026rsquo;s Gaza war that has killed 59,587 Palestinians. Separately, US envoy Steve Witkoff withdrew from Gaza ceasefire talks, accusing Hamas of showing \u0026ldquo;a lack of desire\u0026rdquo; to reach agreement, while Israel also recalled its negotiating team from Qatar. Hamas expressed surprise at the US withdrawal and affirmed its commitment to continue negotiations, as at least 115 Palestinians have died from malnutrition since October with aid groups warning of \u0026ldquo;mass starvation.\u0026rdquo;\nMore - Al Jazeera | Al Jazeera\n🇹🇭 🇰🇭 There’s a Thai-Cambodia Conflict Explainer from Bloomberg here\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇿🇲 Zambia\nRegional News Summary In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a significant tourism deal has been struck with FC Barcelona, amounting to €40 million. This partnership aims to bolster tourism revenue and create jobs, reflecting the country\u0026rsquo;s efforts to enhance its economic prospects through international collaboration [SOURCE - The Sun].\nHowever, the region faces ongoing challenges, particularly in the realm of security. The DRC and Rwanda-backed rebels have signed a declaration of principles for a permanent ceasefire in the eastern part of the country, a move facilitated by Qatar. This agreement seeks to end years of conflict and bring stability to a region long plagued by violence [SOURCE - ABC News].\nIn Zambia, the Food Reserve Agency announced plans to export 1 million tonnes of surplu\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/25/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-87c8/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"france-to-recognize-palestine-gaza-talks-collapse-thai-cambodia-conflict-explainer\"\u003eFrance to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse, Thai-Cambodia Conflict Explainer\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸** France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFrench President Macron announced France will recognize Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September, making it the largest European country to do so amid growing anger over Israel\u0026rsquo;s Gaza war that has killed 59,587 Palestinians. Separately, US envoy Steve Witkoff withdrew from Gaza ceasefire talks, accusing Hamas of showing \u0026ldquo;a lack of desire\u0026rdquo; to reach agreement, while Israel also recalled its negotiating team from Qatar. Hamas expressed surprise at the US withdrawal and affirmed its commitment to continue negotiations, as at least 115 Palestinians have died from malnutrition since October with aid groups warning of \u0026ldquo;mass starvation.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Ukraine Protests Over Corruption Changes, Brazil Joins ICJ Genocide Case Andrew Sheves Good morning\n🇺🇦** Ukraine Protests Over Corruption Changes**\nThousands of Ukrainians protested in Kyiv and other cities after President Zelensky signed a law stripping anti-corruption bodies NABU and SAP of their independence, marking the largest anti-government demonstrations since Russia\u0026rsquo;s 2022 invasion. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen demanded \u0026ldquo;explanations\u0026rdquo; from Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s government, with her spokesman warning there \u0026ldquo;cannot be a compromise\u0026rdquo; on rule of law standards for EU candidate countries. Critics see the move as a return to pre-2014 corruption under pro-Russian President Yanukovych, potentially undermining Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s EU integration prospects that many feel they\u0026rsquo;re paying for with Russian bloodshed. More - BBC\n🇵🇸** Brazil Joins ICJ Genocide Case**\nBrazil announced it will formally intervene in South Africa\u0026rsquo;s International Court of Justice case alleging Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, saying the international community \u0026ldquo;cannot remain inactive in the face of ongoing atrocities.\u0026rdquo; The Brazilian Foreign Ministry condemned Israel\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;shameless use of starvation as a weapon of war\u0026rdquo; and said there is \u0026ldquo;no longer room for moral ambiguity or political omission\u0026rdquo; as civilians face recurring violence and rights violations. Brazil joins Spain, Turkey and Ireland in seeking ICJ intervention, while Israeli forces have killed over 1,000 Palestinians at US-backed aid distribution sites since May as UN officials denounce the sites as \u0026ldquo;death traps.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia\nRegional News Summary Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy is poised for a period of consolidation, with shares overdue for correction, potentially impacting the luxury condominium market, which is already showing signs of struggle. However, optimism remains as construction begins on an $8 billion luxury resort, expected to provide a significant boost to the economy [SOURCE - CNBC]. Meanwhile, RHB Singapore has set an ambitious target of 12% return on equity by 2027, aiming to drive regional growth [SOURCE - The Sun].\nIn the realm of cybersecurity, Singapore is grappling with a serious cyberattack targeting critical infr\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/24/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-49ad/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ukraine-protests-over-corruption-changes-brazil-joins-icj-genocide-case\"\u003eUkraine Protests Over Corruption Changes, Brazil Joins ICJ Genocide Case\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦** Ukraine Protests Over Corruption Changes**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThousands of Ukrainians protested in Kyiv and other cities after President Zelensky signed a law stripping anti-corruption bodies NABU and SAP of their independence, marking the largest anti-government demonstrations since Russia\u0026rsquo;s 2022 invasion. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen demanded \u0026ldquo;explanations\u0026rdquo; from Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s government, with her spokesman warning there \u0026ldquo;cannot be a compromise\u0026rdquo; on rule of law standards for EU candidate countries. Critics see the move as a return to pre-2014 corruption under pro-Russian President Yanukovych, potentially undermining Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s EU integration prospects that many feel they\u0026rsquo;re paying for with Russian bloodshed. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9w19vxjr44o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza, Trump Strikes Trade Deal with Japan, Philippines Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇵🇸** Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza**\nAt least 15 Palestinians, including four children, starved to death in a single day in Gaza, bringing the total malnutrition deaths since Israel\u0026rsquo;s war began to 101, with 80 of them children. 600,000 people are estimated to be malnourished as Israel continues to prevent food deliveries into the Strip. UN Secretary-General Guterres called Gaza a \u0026ldquo;horror show with a level of death and destruction without parallel in recent times,\u0026rdquo; with nearly 88% of the territory now under Israeli displacement orders or militarized zones, forcing 2.3 million people into ever-shrinking space. More - Al Jazeera\n🚢** Trump Strikes Trade Deal with Japan, Philippines**\nPresident Trump reached a trade deal with Japan imposing 15% tariffs on imports including automobiles, down from a threatened 25%, while securing a $550 billion Japanese investment fund for US projects with 90% of profits going to America. The agreement includes Japan buying 100 Boeing aircraft, boosting rice purchases by 75%, and increasing defense spending with US firms to $17 billion annually from $14 billion. Japanese carmaker stocks jumped up to 16% on news of the lower auto tariff rate, while Prime Minister Ishiba reportedly plans to resign following his party\u0026rsquo;s poor election performance and the deal\u0026rsquo;s conclusion. More - Bloomberg\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary Switzerland is experiencing a notable shift in its construction sector, with spending expected to decline in 2024 as the focus moves from new builds to renovations. This trend reflects broader economic adjustments within the country. Meanwhile, ABB, a major player in the Swiss market, has reported a rise in its stock value following a strong second quarter, buoyed by increased profits and orders, suggesting a resilient outlook for the company amidst economic shifts [SOURCE - RTT News].\nOn the trade front, India and the European Free Trade Association, which includes Switzerland, are set to implement a significant trade pact starting October 1. This agreement is pro\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/23/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-be7e/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"starvation-deaths-malnutrition-increase-in-gaza-trump-strikes-trade-deal-with-japan-philippines\"\u003eStarvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza, Trump Strikes Trade Deal with Japan, Philippines\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸** Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt least 15 Palestinians, including four children, starved to death in a single day in Gaza, bringing the total malnutrition deaths since Israel\u0026rsquo;s war began to 101, with 80 of them children. 600,000 people are estimated to be malnourished as Israel continues to prevent food deliveries into the Strip. UN Secretary-General Guterres called Gaza a \u0026ldquo;horror show with a level of death and destruction without parallel in recent times,\u0026rdquo; with nearly 88% of the territory now under Israeli displacement orders or militarized zones, forcing 2.3 million people into ever-shrinking space. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/22/at-least-15-starve-to-death-in-24-hours-in-gaza-as-israel-continues-attacks\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Microsoft SharePoint Cyberattack, WHO Condemns Israeli Attacks on Gaza Facilities, Pakistan Monsoon Deaths, Damage Increase Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🪲** Microsoft SharePoint Cyberattack**\nHackers exploited a security flaw in Microsoft SharePoint software to breach governments, businesses and organizations globally, stealing sensitive information including sign-in credentials and usernames. Multiple government systems were compromised including the US Department of Education, Florida\u0026rsquo;s Department of Revenue, Rhode Island General Assembly, and national governments in Europe and the Middle East. Over 10,000 companies with on-premise SharePoint servers are at risk, with researchers identifying at least 50 successful breaches across North America, South America, EU, South Africa and Australia, making it \u0026ldquo;a dream for ransomware operators\u0026rdquo; due to SharePoint\u0026rsquo;s deep integration with Microsoft\u0026rsquo;s platform. More - Bloomberg\nNote - Microsoft has buried the event on its site but the engineering pages are here with details of the issue and the patches.\n🇵🇸** WHO Condemns Israeli Attacks on Gaza Facilities**\nThe World Health Organization condemned Israeli attacks on its facilities in Deir al-Balah during the first major ground operation there since the war began, with forces attacking a staff residence three times and destroying the main warehouse. Israeli troops forced women and children to evacuate on foot while handcuffing and interrogating male staff at gunpoint, detaining four people including two WHO staff with one still held. The attacks came as Israel ordered immediate evacuation of six city blocks housing 50,000-80,000 people, with 87.8% of Gaza now under evacuation orders or Israeli militarized zones, squeezing 2.1 million people into just 46 square kilometers. More - BBC\nGaza evacuation or no go zones map via the BBC\n🇵🇰** Pakistan Monsoon Deaths, Damage Increase**\nA landslide triggered by torrential monsoon rains killed at least three people in northern Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s Gilgit-Baltistan province, with 15 people still missing after more than eight vehicles were swept away on a highway. Flash floods damaged 50 houses, four bridges, a hotel and a school while blocking major highways, as rescue operations continue to search for survivors buried under debris. The deaths add to Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s monsoon toll of 221 people killed nationwide since June 26, including 104 children and 40 women, with meteorologists warning the heavy rains arrived earlier than usual this year. [More - Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/22/1548?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;utm_campaig\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/22/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-7cdc/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"microsoft-sharepoint-cyberattack-who-condemns-israeli-attacks-on-gaza-facilities-pakistan-monsoon-deaths-damage-increase\"\u003eMicrosoft SharePoint Cyberattack, WHO Condemns Israeli Attacks on Gaza Facilities, Pakistan Monsoon Deaths, Damage Increase\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🪲** Microsoft SharePoint Cyberattack**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHackers exploited a security flaw in Microsoft SharePoint software to breach governments, businesses and organizations globally, stealing sensitive information including sign-in credentials and usernames. Multiple government systems were compromised including the US Department of Education, Florida\u0026rsquo;s Department of Revenue, Rhode Island General Assembly, and national governments in Europe and the Middle East. Over 10,000 companies with on-premise SharePoint servers are at risk, with researchers identifying at least 50 successful breaches across North America, South America, EU, South Africa and Australia, making it \u0026ldquo;a dream for ransomware operators\u0026rdquo; due to SharePoint\u0026rsquo;s deep integration with Microsoft\u0026rsquo;s platform. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-21/microsoft-server-software-comes-under-widespread-cyberattack\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan, Bedouins Threaten to Resume Syria Fighting, Iran Holds Nuclear Talks Friday Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇪🇺** EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan**\nEU envoys will meet this week to formulate measures responding to a possible no-deal scenario with Trump, whose tariff position has hardened ahead of the August 1 deadline. The US now wants near-universal tariffs above 10% on EU goods with fewer exemptions, up from the bloc\u0026rsquo;s hoped-for framework, as negotiations continue with limited progress. The EU has prepared €21 billion in immediate countermeasures targeting politically sensitive US states and an additional €72 billion list including Boeing aircraft, US cars and bourbon whiskey, while considering activating its anti-coercion instrument that could impose new taxes on US tech giants. More - Bloomberg\n🇸🇾** Bedouins Threaten to Resume Syria Fighting**\nBedouin fighters outside Suweida told the BBC they will observe a ceasefire with the Druze but haven\u0026rsquo;t ruled out resuming hostilities, demanding the release of injured Bedouins they consider \u0026ldquo;hostages\u0026rdquo; in the city. Over 1,120 people have been killed in a week of sectarian clashes, including 427 Druze fighters, 298 Druze civilians, and 354 government security personnel, with the Syrian Observatory reporting 194 Druze civilians were \u0026ldquo;summarily executed\u0026rdquo; by government forces. At least 128,000 people have been displaced as humanitarian convoys reach the city, while displaced Bedouin women said they couldn\u0026rsquo;t trust the Druze without government authority providing \u0026ldquo;peace and security.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇮🇷** Iran Holds Nuclear Talks Friday**\nIran will hold nuclear talks with France, Germany and the UK in Istanbul on Friday, following warnings from the three European powers that failure to resume negotiations would trigger international sanctions by August. The deputy foreign minister-level talks come after the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities a month ago, with Iran accusing Washington of complicity in attacks that killed top military officials, nuclear scientists and hundreds of civilians. The E3 nations threaten to restore UN sanctions if talks don\u0026rsquo;t produce concrete results, while Iran\u0026rsquo;s foreign minister said they should \u0026ldquo;put aside worn-out policies of threat and pressure.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\nGlobal Stability Ratings 🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable\n🇦🇱 Albania is Weak\n🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\n🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\n🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\n🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\n🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak\n🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\n🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\n🇦🇹 Austria is Stable\n🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Stable\n🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\n🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak\n🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable\n🇧🇾 Belarus is Unstable\n🇧🇪 Belgium is Stable\n🇧🇿 Belize is Weak\n🇧🇯 Benin is Weak\n🇧🇹 Bhutan is Stable\n🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak\n🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak\n🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable\n🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak\n🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable\n🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Stable\n🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable\n🇧🇮 Burund\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/21/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-3c4b/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"eu-prepares-trade-retaliation-plan-bedouins-threaten-to-resume-syria-fighting-iran-holds-nuclear-talks-friday\"\u003eEU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan, Bedouins Threaten to Resume Syria Fighting, Iran Holds Nuclear Talks Friday\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇪🇺** EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEU envoys will meet this week to formulate measures responding to a possible no-deal scenario with Trump, whose tariff position has hardened ahead of the August 1 deadline. The US now wants near-universal tariffs above 10% on EU goods with fewer exemptions, up from the bloc\u0026rsquo;s hoped-for framework, as negotiations continue with limited progress. The EU has prepared €21 billion in immediate countermeasures targeting politically sensitive US states and an additional €72 billion list including Boeing aircraft, US cars and bourbon whiskey, while considering activating its anti-coercion instrument that could impose new taxes on US tech giants. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-20/eu-to-prepare-retaliation-plan-as-us-trade-stance-seen-to-harden\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61, Israel Strikes Gaza Catholic Church, Weekend Diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇶** Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61**\nA fire at a week-old shopping center in Kut, Iraq killed 61 people with many still missing after an air conditioner explosion triggered the blaze. Survivors described being trapped as the fire spread rapidly through the mall, which lacked proper fire extinguishing systems according to witnesses who lost family members. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani ordered an immediate investigation as the tragedy highlights Iraq\u0026rsquo;s persistent safety standard problems, following similar deadly fires including a 2023 wedding party blaze that killed over 100 people and a 2021 hospital fire that claimed more than 90 lives. More - BBC\n🇻🇦** Israel Strikes Gaza Catholic Church**\nIsraeli forces bombed Gaza\u0026rsquo;s only Catholic church, killing three people including a 60-year-old janitor and 84-year-old woman while wounding 10 others, including the priest, at the Holy Family Church sheltering displaced civilians. Prime Minister Netanyahu called it \u0026ldquo;stray ammunition\u0026rdquo; after Trump expressed his \u0026ldquo;not positive reaction\u0026rdquo; to the strike, while Pope Leo called for an immediate ceasefire expressing \u0026ldquo;deep sadness\u0026rdquo; over the attack. A UN report found Israel has destroyed over half of Gaza\u0026rsquo;s religious sites since October 2023, with this latest strike coming as part of what Hamas called \u0026ldquo;a comprehensive war of extermination against the Palestinian people.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇿🇲 Zambia\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains embroiled in the M23 conflict, which poses significant risks to the global supply of critical minerals essential for the tech industry. A recent BBC report provided rare access to a mine that is crucial for powering mobile phones, underscoring the importance of these minerals in the global economy [SOURCE - BBC]. This situation has raised alarms about potential neo-colonial exploitation, with countries like Pakistan expressing concerns over the scramble for these resources [[SOURCE - Associated Press of Pakistan]](https://www.app.com.pk/foreign-correspondent/scramble-for-critical-minerals-raises-fears-of-neo-colonial-exploitation-especially-in-africa-pakist\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/18/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-6f8a/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"iraq-shopping-mall-fire-kills-61-israel-strikes-gaza-catholic-church-weekend-diversions\"\u003eIraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61, Israel Strikes Gaza Catholic Church, Weekend Diversions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇶** Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA fire at a week-old shopping center in Kut, Iraq killed 61 people with many still missing after an air conditioner explosion triggered the blaze. Survivors described being trapped as the fire spread rapidly through the mall, which lacked proper fire extinguishing systems according to witnesses who lost family members. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani ordered an immediate investigation as the tragedy highlights Iraq\u0026rsquo;s persistent safety standard problems, following similar deadly fires including a 2023 wedding party blaze that killed over 100 people and a 2021 hospital fire that claimed more than 90 lives. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceq7d45v5v3o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"USAID Will Destroy Food for 30,000, US Announces Syria De-escalation Andrew Sheves 🇺🇸** USAID Will Destroy Food for 30,000 Kids**\nNearly 500 tonnes of high-energy biscuits intended to feed 27,000 starving children in Afghanistan and Pakistan will be incinerated after expiring in a Dubai warehouse following Trump\u0026rsquo;s closure of USAID. Deputy Secretary of State Michael Rigas called the waste \u0026ldquo;a casualty of the shutdown of USAID,\u0026rdquo; which closed July 1, leaving over 60,000 tonnes of food aid stuck worldwide. The $793,000 worth of expired fortified wheat biscuits will cost an additional $100,000 to destroy, despite lawmakers warning officials in March about the potential waste as 319 million people face limited food access globally. More - Al Jazeera\n🇸🇾** US Announces Syria De-escalation**\nThe US said \u0026ldquo;specific steps\u0026rdquo; were agreed to end Syria violence after Israeli strikes hit Damascus, including the defense ministry in central Umayyad Square, as Israel warned of \u0026ldquo;painful blows\u0026rdquo; against forces attacking the Druze in Suweida. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said warnings to Damascus had ended and the military would \u0026ldquo;continue to operate vigorously\u0026rdquo; until attacking forces withdraw completely from Suweida. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported over 300 people killed since Sunday\u0026rsquo;s clashes began, including 69 Druze fighters, 40 civilians, and 165 government forces, while Syria\u0026rsquo;s health ministry said government forces found \u0026ldquo;dozens of bodies\u0026rdquo; at Suweida\u0026rsquo;s national hospital. More - BBC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary In recent developments across Asia, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy has shown resilience, growing by 4.3% in the second quarter, driven by robust performances in manufacturing and finance, thus averting a recession. This positive economic outlook is complemented by Tata Steel\u0026rsquo;s acquisition of shares worth Rs 1,074 crore in its Singapore unit, and the eSIM platform Airalo achieving unicorn status after raising US$220 million in funding [SOURCE - CNBC].\nOn the diplomatic front, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s Minister for Home Affairs, K Shanmugam, emphasized the need for deeper relationships with China, the US, and Europe, while Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar highlighted Singapore\u0026rsquo;s pivotal role in India\u0026rsquo;s Act East Policy [[SOURCE - AsiaOne]](https://www.asiaone.com/singapore/singapore-must-develop-deeper-relationships-china-us-europe-shanmugam?utm_source=new\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/17/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-e3d3/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"usaid-will-destroy-food-for-30000-us-announces-syria-de-escalation\"\u003eUSAID Will Destroy Food for 30,000, US Announces Syria De-escalation\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n🇺🇸** USAID Will Destroy Food for 30,000 Kids**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNearly 500 tonnes of high-energy biscuits intended to feed 27,000 starving children in Afghanistan and Pakistan will be incinerated after expiring in a Dubai warehouse following Trump\u0026rsquo;s closure of USAID. Deputy Secretary of State Michael Rigas called the waste \u0026ldquo;a casualty of the shutdown of USAID,\u0026rdquo; which closed July 1, leaving over 60,000 tonnes of food aid stuck worldwide. The $793,000 worth of expired fortified wheat biscuits will cost an additional $100,000 to destroy, despite lawmakers warning officials in March about the potential waste as 319 million people face limited food access globally. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/16/usaid-food-for-nearly-30000-hungry-kids-to-be-destroyed-official\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Israel Bombs Syrian Forces, Philippines AI Disinformation Surge Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇸🇾** Israel Bombs Syrian Forces**\nIsrael bombed Syrian government forces entering Druze city Suweida after deadly sectarian clashes killed at least 200 people since Sunday, with Prime Minister Netanyahu saying he ordered strikes to prevent their use \u0026ldquo;against the Druze.\u0026rdquo; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused government forces of summary executions of 19 Druze civilians and systematic looting after entering the city under a ceasefire agreement. The Trump administration reportedly asked Israel to cease strikes, while Syria condemned Israeli involvement as violations continue despite a declared ceasefire between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes. More - BBC\n🇵🇭** Philippines AI Disinformation Surge**\nAI-generated disinformation campaigns have escalated in the Philippines amid a bitter power struggle between former President Rodrigo Duterte and current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, with deepfake videos targeting drug war victims and their families. A shocking example involved an AI-generated video of a deceased teen victim appearing to claim he was alive and accusing his sister of lying about his death in Duterte\u0026rsquo;s war on drugs. Fact-checkers found that nearly a third of altered claims during recent elections \u0026ldquo;likely involved deepfake technology,\u0026rdquo; while a record 7 out of 10 Filipinos express concern about disinformation as both political camps deploy AI tools for propaganda. More - Al Jazeera\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey\nRegional News Summary The UEFA Women\u0026rsquo;s Euro 2025 has captured headlines as Sweden and Germany successfully advanced to the quarterfinals, with Norway also in contention for a spot in the next round. This sporting event not only highlights the growing popularity of women\u0026rsquo;s football but also serves as a platform for fostering international camaraderie and competition in the region [SOURCE - The Hindu].\nIn the realm of international relations, Malaysia has called for stronger ties between ASEAN and Switzerland, emphasizing the need for collaboration to promote peace and the rule of law. This appeal underscores the importance of diplomatic engagement in addressing regional and global challenges [[SOUR\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/16/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-b561/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-bombs-syrian-forces-philippines-ai-disinformation-surge\"\u003eIsrael Bombs Syrian Forces, Philippines AI Disinformation Surge\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇸🇾** Israel Bombs Syrian Forces**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael bombed Syrian government forces entering Druze city Suweida after deadly sectarian clashes killed at least 200 people since Sunday, with Prime Minister Netanyahu saying he ordered strikes to prevent their use \u0026ldquo;against the Druze.\u0026rdquo; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused government forces of summary executions of 19 Druze civilians and systematic looting after entering the city under a ceasefire agreement. The Trump administration reportedly asked Israel to cease strikes, while Syria condemned Israeli involvement as violations continue despite a declared ceasefire between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89e3j4e911o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"China’s Economy Beats Expectations, Trump Threatens Russia Tariffs, Druze-Bedouin Clashes Kill 99 in Syria Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇨🇳 China’s Economy Beats Expectations\nChina\u0026rsquo;s economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter, beating forecasts as strong factory output and exports to non-US markets offset weak domestic consumption. Industrial production surged 6.8% in June while retail sales disappointed at 4.8%, highlighting the persistent imbalance between strong supply and weak domestic demand. Despite a 24% slump in US shipments, overall exports rose as government subsidies and fiscal stimulus supported growth, providing Beijing breathing room ahead of potential tariff escalation when the current US trade truce ends in mid-August. More - Bloomberg\n🇷🇺** Trump Threatens Russia Tariffs**\nPresident Trump threatened Russia with tariffs while unveiling a new Ukraine weapons plan where the US will sell arms to NATO countries who will forward them to Ukraine, funded by European allies. Trump expressed frustration with Putin, saying \u0026ldquo;very nice phone calls\u0026rdquo; are followed by devastating air strikes on Ukraine, adding \u0026ldquo;at a certain point talk doesn\u0026rsquo;t talk, it\u0026rsquo;s got to be action.\u0026rdquo; The announcement drew praise from Democrats and Ukrainian officials, while pro-Kremlin commentators dismissed the tariff threat as a \u0026ldquo;bluff\u0026rdquo; indicating Trump had \u0026ldquo;given up on trying to achieve peace.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇸🇾** Druze-Bedouin Clashes Kill 99 in Syria**\nFighting between Bedouin tribes and Druze fighters in southern Syria\u0026rsquo;s Suwayda city has killed 99 people and injured 100 others, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, prompting Syrian forces to intervene. The violence erupted Sunday after a wave of kidnappings including the abduction of a Druze merchant on the Damascus-Suwayda highway, marking the first deadly outbreak since April-May clashes killed dozens. Israel struck Syrian tanks heading toward Suwayda, warning it won\u0026rsquo;t allow harm to the Druze, as the new Syrian government struggles to maintain security following Assad\u0026rsquo;s December overthrow. More - Al Jazeera\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Br\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/15/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-785a/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"chinas-economy-beats-expectations-trump-threatens-russia-tariffs-druze-bedouin-clashes-kill-99-in-syria\"\u003eChina’s Economy Beats Expectations, Trump Threatens Russia Tariffs, Druze-Bedouin Clashes Kill 99 in Syria\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇳 \u003cstrong\u003eChina’s Economy Beats Expectations\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eChina\u0026rsquo;s economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter, beating forecasts as strong factory output and exports to non-US markets offset weak domestic consumption. Industrial production surged 6.8% in June while retail sales disappointed at 4.8%, highlighting the persistent imbalance between strong supply and weak domestic demand. Despite a 24% slump in US shipments, overall exports rose as government subsidies and fiscal stimulus supported growth, providing Beijing breathing room ahead of potential tariff escalation when the current US trade truce ends in mid-August. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/china-economy-expands-5-2-as-exports-propel-growth-above-target\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"EU Tariff Cooperation Plans, Gaza Children Killed in Water Queue, Trump Promises Ukraine Patriots, Former Nigerian President Buhari Dies Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇪🇺** EU Plans Increased Cooperation With Tariff-Hit Nations**\nThe EU is preparing to step up engagement with other countries hit by Trump\u0026rsquo;s tariffs, including potential coordination with Canada and Japan, as talks with the US remain stuck on cars and agriculture. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen extended suspension of €21 billion in countermeasures until August 1, while preparing €72 billion in additional penalties if negotiations fail. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump\u0026rsquo;s proposed 30% EU tariff would lower eurozone GDP by 1.2% through 2026, as the bloc seeks deals capped at 10% on agricultural exports while focusing talks on automotive tariffs. More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸** Gaza Children Killed in Water Queue**\nTen people including six children were killed while waiting to fill water containers in central Gaza\u0026rsquo;s Nuseirat refugee camp, with the Israeli military admitting a \u0026ldquo;technical error\u0026rdquo; caused a munition to fall dozens of meters from its intended target. Eyewitnesses said a drone fired at crowds queuing with jerry cans next to a water tanker, while the Red Cross reported treating more mass casualty cases in six weeks than the previous 12 months. The UN has recorded 789 aid-related killings since May 27, with 615 near controversial US-Israeli backed distribution sites where security contractors operate in military zones. More - BBC\n🇺🇦** Trump Promises Ukraine Patriots**\nPresident Trump said the US will send Patriot missile systems to Ukraine because they are \u0026ldquo;desperately\u0026rdquo; needed against intensifying Russian air strikes, with European allies paying 100% of the costs. Trump expressed growing frustration with Putin, saying \u0026ldquo;he talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening\u0026rdquo; ahead of Monday\u0026rsquo;s meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and a promised \u0026ldquo;major announcement\u0026rdquo; on Russia. Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Zelensky has pleaded for 10 Patriot systems as Russia escalates its air war with record numbers of upgraded Iranian-designed drones and hypersonic missiles that only Patriots can intercept. More - Financial Times\n🇳🇬** Nigerian Ex-President Buhari Dies**\nNigeria\u0026rsquo;s former President Muhammadu Buhari died in London at age 82 following a prolonged illness, President Bola Tinubu\u0026rsquo;s spokesperson announced Sunday. Buhari made history in 2015 as the first opposition candidate to defeat a sitting president in Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s modern era, but his eight-year presidency struggled with economic mismanagement and rising insecurity. Despite promising to defeat Boko Haram, armed violence spread nationwide under his tenure, while his insistence on maintaining a strong naira led to multiple exchange rates and two recessions, though he maintained a reputation for personal integrity in a corruption-prone political climate. [More - Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/13/nigerias-for\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/14/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-9678/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"eu-tariff-cooperation-plans-gaza-children-killed-in-water-queue-trump-promises-ukraine-patriots-former-nigerian-president-buhari-dies\"\u003eEU Tariff Cooperation Plans, Gaza Children Killed in Water Queue, Trump Promises Ukraine Patriots, Former Nigerian President Buhari Dies\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇪🇺** EU Plans Increased Cooperation With Tariff-Hit Nations**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe EU is preparing to step up engagement with other countries hit by Trump\u0026rsquo;s tariffs, including potential coordination with Canada and Japan, as talks with the US remain stuck on cars and agriculture. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen extended suspension of €21 billion in countermeasures until August 1, while preparing €72 billion in additional penalties if negotiations fail. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump\u0026rsquo;s proposed 30% EU tariff would lower eurozone GDP by 1.2% through 2026, as the bloc seeks deals capped at 10% on agricultural exports while focusing talks on automotive tariffs. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-13/eu-to-extend-suspension-of-countermeasures-to-allow-for-us-talks\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed, Saudis Breach OPEC+ Quota Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇷** Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed**\nA senior Israeli official said intelligence indicates much of Iran\u0026rsquo;s enriched uranium is buried at Isfahan and could potentially be recovered, though any attempt would likely be detected and prompt renewed Israeli strikes. The assessment contradicts Trump\u0026rsquo;s repeated claims that US strikes \u0026ldquo;totally obliterated\u0026rdquo; Iran\u0026rsquo;s nuclear facilities, while IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said parts of the targeted sites are \u0026ldquo;still standing.\u0026rdquo; Iran\u0026rsquo;s President Pezeshkian confirmed the facilities were \u0026ldquo;severely damaged\u0026rdquo; with no current access, though Israel believes the nuclear program was set back two years overall. More - BBC\n🛢️Saudis Breach OPEC+ Quota\nSaudi Arabia raised crude output by 700,000 barrels daily to 9.8 million barrels in June, far exceeding its OPEC+ quota in a rare breach as Gulf producers rushed to export oil during the Israel-Iran conflict. Iraq, Kuwait and UAE also exceeded quotas while Iran\u0026rsquo;s production fell 400,000 barrels daily, according to the International Energy Agency. The surge comes as global oil markets face substantial surplus with demand growing at the slowest pace in 16 years, while non-OPEC production from the US, Guyana, Brazil and Canada expands twice as fast as global consumption. More - Bloomberg\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania\nRegional News Summary Tensions are escalating in the Great Lakes region of Africa, particularly between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). UN experts have reported that Rwanda has been supporting rebel groups in the DRC and engaging in unprecedented levels of mineral smuggling, jeopardizing the fragile peace agreement between the two nations [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press]. This situation is compounded by China\u0026rsquo;s growing influence in the region, raising concerns about potential conflicts over valuable resources [SOURCE - RT].\nIn the DRC, the global demand for copper is also causing disruptions in the mining industry, with a report indicat\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/11/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-0d35/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"irans-uranium-buried-not-destroyed-saudis-breach-opec-quota\"\u003eIran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed, Saudis Breach OPEC+ Quota\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇷** Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA senior Israeli official said intelligence indicates much of Iran\u0026rsquo;s enriched uranium is buried at Isfahan and could potentially be recovered, though any attempt would likely be detected and prompt renewed Israeli strikes. The assessment contradicts Trump\u0026rsquo;s repeated claims that US strikes \u0026ldquo;totally obliterated\u0026rdquo; Iran\u0026rsquo;s nuclear facilities, while IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said parts of the targeted sites are \u0026ldquo;still standing.\u0026rdquo; Iran\u0026rsquo;s President Pezeshkian confirmed the facilities were \u0026ldquo;severely damaged\u0026rdquo; with no current access, though Israel believes the nuclear program was set back two years overall. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0qzxvydz1o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Trump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs, Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks Andrew Sheves 🇺🇸** Trump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs**\nPresident Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil over its prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, calling the coup attempt case a \u0026ldquo;witch hunt\u0026rdquo; in the most extreme example yet of weaponizing trade policy for unrelated demands. Brazil\u0026rsquo;s President Lula fired back saying his nation won\u0026rsquo;t be \u0026ldquo;tutored\u0026rdquo; and threatened reciprocal measures, while the real plummeted 2.9% against the dollar. Trump also announced 30% tariffs on Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, plus floated 50% duties on copper products and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals if companies don\u0026rsquo;t shift production to the US within a year. More - Bloomberg\n🇦🇲 🇦🇿 Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks Start in UAE\nArmenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are holding peace talks in Abu Dhabi, four months after finalizing a draft deal to end nearly four decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The talks follow Azerbaijan\u0026rsquo;s September 2023 recapture of the territory, prompting an exodus of almost all 100,000 ethnic Armenians who fled to Armenia. Key obstacles remain including Azerbaijan\u0026rsquo;s demand for Armenia to change its constitution and provide a transport corridor to connect Azerbaijan proper with its Nakhchivan enclave, while ceasefire violations along their 1,000km border have complicated negotiations. More - Al Jazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, Barclays has restructured its Asia-Pacific investment banking leadership, indicating a transformative phase in the financial sector. Concurrently, UOB, FMM, and SMF have formed a partnership aimed at enhancing cross-border manufacturing projects, which is expected to invigorate the country\u0026rsquo;s manufacturing industry [SOURCE - Livemint]. Additionally, a new TCS innovation center has been established to facilitate AI transformation for 60 Singapore SMEs and start-ups, further promoting technological advancement in the region [[SOURCE - The Hindu BusinessLine]](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/tcs-innovation-centre-to-drive-ai-transformation-for-60-singapore-smes-start-ups/article69767991.ece?utm\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/10/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-1825/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trump-announces-big-brazil-copper-and-pharma-tariffs-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-talks\"\u003eTrump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs, Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n🇺🇸** Trump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePresident Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil over its prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, calling the coup attempt case a \u0026ldquo;witch hunt\u0026rdquo; in the most extreme example yet of weaponizing trade policy for unrelated demands. Brazil\u0026rsquo;s President Lula fired back saying his nation won\u0026rsquo;t be \u0026ldquo;tutored\u0026rdquo; and threatened reciprocal measures, while the real plummeted 2.9% against the dollar. Trump also announced 30% tariffs on Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, plus floated 50% duties on copper products and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals if companies don\u0026rsquo;t shift production to the US within a year. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-09/trump-unveils-latest-tariff-rates-with-the-philippines-at-20\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation, Tunisia Jails Opposition Leaders Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇵🇸** Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation**\nIsraeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the military to prepare a plan to move all 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza into a \u0026ldquo;humanitarian city\u0026rdquo; built on Rafah\u0026rsquo;s ruins, initially housing 600,000 people who would not be allowed to leave after security screening. An Israeli human rights lawyer condemned it as \u0026ldquo;an operational plan for a crime against humanity\u0026rdquo; involving population transfer in preparation for deportation. Netanyahu endorsed Trump\u0026rsquo;s proposal for the US to take over post-war Gaza and permanently resettle Palestinians elsewhere, while Arab states have categorically rejected any displacement as \u0026ldquo;ethnic cleansing.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇹🇳** Tunisia Jails Opposition Leaders**\nA Tunisian court sentenced 21 high-profile politicians to lengthy prison terms, including opposition leader Rached Ghannouchi who received up to 14 years and former Prime Minister Youssef Chahed who got 35 years in absentia. The sentences on charges including forming \u0026ldquo;terrorist\u0026rdquo; organizations and conspiring against state security represent the latest escalation in President Kais Saied\u0026rsquo;s crackdown on critics since he suspended parliament in 2021. Former Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalem Bouchlaka dismissed the rulings as making Tunisia \u0026ldquo;a mockery\u0026rdquo; and predicted the \u0026ldquo;lying, deceptive coup regime\u0026rdquo; would eventually fall. More - Al Jazeera\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia\nRegional News Summary Switzerland is facing a resurgence in inflation, which rose in June, raising concerns among citizens and policymakers alike. The increase is compounded by worries over the high cost of pharmaceuticals, particularly weight loss drugs, which Swiss insurers fear could lead to a significant financial burden on the healthcare system [SOURCE - SwissInfo]. In the realm of trade, Switzerland is engaged in challenging negotiations with the Mercosur trading bloc regarding pharmaceuticals, while also reopening its embassy in Tehran, a move aimed at strengthening trade ties with Iran [SOURCE - The Sun].\nSecurity con\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/09/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-0a60/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-plans-mass-gaza-relocation-tunisia-jails-opposition-leaders\"\u003eIsrael Plans Mass Gaza Relocation, Tunisia Jails Opposition Leaders\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸** Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsraeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the military to prepare a plan to move all 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza into a \u0026ldquo;humanitarian city\u0026rdquo; built on Rafah\u0026rsquo;s ruins, initially housing 600,000 people who would not be allowed to leave after security screening. An Israeli human rights lawyer condemned it as \u0026ldquo;an operational plan for a crime against humanity\u0026rdquo; involving population transfer in preparation for deportation. Netanyahu endorsed Trump\u0026rsquo;s proposal for the US to take over post-war Gaza and permanently resettle Palestinians elsewhere, while Arab states have categorically rejected any displacement as \u0026ldquo;ethnic cleansing.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8rp31lk7mzo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks, 11 Killed in Kenya Protests, Trump Extends Tariff Deadline Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🛢️ Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks\nOil steadied near $69 per barrel as traders focused on potential fallout from Trump\u0026rsquo;s new tariffs and escalating Red Sea attacks, with Brent holding gains after Monday\u0026rsquo;s 1.9% advance despite OPEC+ announcing larger-than-expected supply increases for August. A second vessel was targeted near Yemen hours after Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for an earlier ship attack, raising Middle East tensions despite the fragile Israel-Iran truce. Trump announced tariffs starting August 1 on Japan, South Korea and other partners but suggested negotiations remain possible, while diesel markets show tightness with US stockpiles at lowest seasonal levels since 1996. More - Bloomberg\n🇰🇪** 11 Killed in Kenya Protests**\nAt least 11 people were killed and 567 arrested during anti-government protests in Kenya marking the 35th anniversary of the historic Saba Saba democracy demonstrations. Police sealed off central Nairobi with roadblocks and razor wire, stranding hundreds of commuters while opening fire on protesters demanding good governance and accountability from President Ruto\u0026rsquo;s government. The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights accused police of using excessive force and collaborating with \u0026ldquo;armed criminal gangs,\u0026rdquo; while demonstrations spread to 17 of Kenya\u0026rsquo;s 47 counties with shopping centers set ablaze in some areas. More - BBC\n🇺🇸** Trump Extends Tariff Deadline**\nPresident Trump renewed threats to impose steep \u0026ldquo;reciprocal\u0026rdquo; tariffs on major trading partners while extending his deadline from July 9 to August 1, sending letters Monday warning of 25% levies on Japan and South Korea and 30% on South Africa. The president called the letters \u0026ldquo;more or less final offers\u0026rdquo; but left room for negotiation, saying he\u0026rsquo;d consider different proposals if countries called with alternative deals. Markets declined on the announcements with the S\u0026amp;P 500 down 0.8%, while Trump has secured only three trade deals since April despite weeks of negotiations with dozens of countries. More - Financial Times\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of Americ\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/08/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-52d0/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"oil-steadies-despite-tariff-red-sea-attacks-11-killed-in-kenya-protests-trump-extends-tariff-deadline\"\u003eOil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks, 11 Killed in Kenya Protests, Trump Extends Tariff Deadline\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e🛢️ Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOil steadied near $69 per barrel as traders focused on potential fallout from Trump\u0026rsquo;s new tariffs and escalating Red Sea attacks, with Brent holding gains after Monday\u0026rsquo;s 1.9% advance despite OPEC+ announcing larger-than-expected supply increases for August. A second vessel was targeted near Yemen hours after Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for an earlier ship attack, raising Middle East tensions despite the fragile Israel-Iran truce. Trump announced tariffs starting August 1 on Japan, South Korea and other partners but suggested negotiations remain possible, while diesel markets show tightness with US stockpiles at lowest seasonal levels since 1996. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-july-8\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Red Sea Attack, Russia Recognizes Taliban Government Andrew Sheves 🚢** Red Sea Attack**\nA commercial vessel in the Red Sea came under attack from small boats firing rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons, forcing the crew to abandon the burning ship as it took on water. The Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas was struck by four unmanned surface vehicles 94km southwest of Yemen\u0026rsquo;s Hodeidah port in an attack matching the \u0026ldquo;established Houthi target profile.\u0026rdquo; The incident threatens to escalate Red Sea tensions at a sensitive moment as Gaza ceasefire talks continue and Iran considers restarting nuclear negotiations. More - Al Jazeera\n🇦🇫** Russia Recognizes Taliban Government**\nRussia became the first country to formally recognize Afghanistan\u0026rsquo;s Taliban government, marking a major milestone nearly four years after the group seized power in Kabul. Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi called the decision \u0026ldquo;courageous\u0026rdquo; and hoped it would encourage other nations, while Russia cited potential for commercial cooperation in energy and infrastructure. Afghan women\u0026rsquo;s rights groups and former politicians condemned the move as legitimizing an \u0026ldquo;authoritarian, anti-women\u0026rdquo; regime that has banned girls\u0026rsquo; education and severely restricted women\u0026rsquo;s freedoms since 2021. More - BBC\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/07/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-5770/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"red-sea-attack-russia-recognizes-taliban-government\"\u003eRed Sea Attack, Russia Recognizes Taliban Government\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n🚢** Red Sea Attack**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA commercial vessel in the Red Sea came under attack from small boats firing rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons, forcing the crew to abandon the burning ship as it took on water. The Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas was struck by four unmanned surface vehicles 94km southwest of Yemen\u0026rsquo;s Hodeidah port in an attack matching the \u0026ldquo;established Houthi target profile.\u0026rdquo; The incident threatens to escalate Red Sea tensions at a sensitive moment as Gaza ceasefire talks continue and Iran considers restarting nuclear negotiations. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/6/gunmen-target-shipping-vessel-in-red-sea\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts, Trump Sets August Tariff Start Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nHappy Birthday America 🇺🇸\n🇺🇦** Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts**\nRussia launched a record 550 drones and 11 missiles against Ukraine overnight, with 72 penetrating air defenses and hitting almost every district of Kyiv, killing at least one woman and wounding 23 people just hours after a “disappointing” call between Trump and Putin. More - BBC The massive attack coincided with the White House announcing cuts to weapons deliveries to Ukraine \u0026ldquo;to put America\u0026rsquo;s interests first,\u0026rdquo; potentially including Patriot interceptors and ammunition that Ukraine desperately needs for air defense. Ukraine warned the weapons halt would \u0026ldquo;encourage the aggressor to continue war and terror,\u0026rdquo; while the Kremlin welcomed the reduced arms flow as helping end the conflict faster. More - BBC\n🇺🇸** Trump Sets August Tariff Start**\nPresident Trump said his administration will begin notifying trading partners Friday of new US tariffs ranging from 10-70% effective August 1, five days before his July 9 deadline for trade deals. Trump plans to send \u0026ldquo;10 or 12\u0026rdquo; letters Friday with additional notifications over subsequent days, stating countries will \u0026ldquo;start to pay on Aug. 1\u0026rdquo; as he prefers \u0026ldquo;simple deals\u0026rdquo; over complicated negotiations. The top tier of his tariff range exceeds his initial April proposals that maxed at 50%, while talks with major partners including Japan, South Korea and the EU remain unfinalized. More - Bloomberg\n🚢 Bloomberg’s Tariff Tracker lists all current tariff rates and any exceptions\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have signed a historic peace agreement in Washington, D.C., aimed at ending decades of conflict between the two nations. The deal, brokered by the United States, has been described as a significant breakthrough in regional diplomacy, with President Trump calling it a \u0026ldquo;new chapter of hope.\u0026rdquo; This agreement is expected to attract investment to the region, which has suffered from years of violence resulting in thousands of deaths and widesp\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/04/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-c5d6/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ukraine-faces-record-strikes-us-weapon-cuts-trump-sets-august-tariff-start\"\u003eUkraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts, Trump Sets August Tariff Start\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHappy Birthday America 🇺🇸\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦** Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia launched a record 550 drones and 11 missiles against Ukraine overnight, with 72 penetrating air defenses and hitting almost every district of Kyiv, killing at least one woman and wounding 23 people just hours after a “disappointing” call between Trump and Putin. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2g3qvz0pvo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e \u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Breaking: Ferry Sinks Off Bali, US Claims 1-2 Year Setback to Iran Nuclear Program, Trump Demands Fed Chair Quit Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇩** Breaking: Ferry Sinks Off Bali**\nDozens missing after ferry carrying 65 people sinks off Indonesia’s Bali. Live Tracker - Al Jazeera\n🇮🇷** US Claims 1-2 Year Setback to Iran Nuclear Program**\nPentagon officials said US airstrikes set back Iran\u0026rsquo;s nuclear program by one to two years, backing Trump\u0026rsquo;s claims the facilities were \u0026ldquo;completely obliterated\u0026rdquo; despite earlier Defense Intelligence Agency assessments suggesting only months of delay. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the strikes at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz degraded Iran\u0026rsquo;s physical capability to construct a bomb, though the location of Iran\u0026rsquo;s 409-kilogram near-bomb-grade uranium inventory remains unknown. Iran has cut communication with IAEA officials and formally ended inspections after the June strikes. More - Bloomberg\n🇺🇸** Trump Demands Fed Chair Quit**\nPresident Trump called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign \u0026ldquo;immediately,\u0026rdquo; escalating his attacks on the central bank chief amid criticism over interest rate policy. Trump\u0026rsquo;s Truth Social post included a link to coverage of housing regulator Bill Pulte calling for Powell\u0026rsquo;s investigation over testimony about Fed headquarters renovations. Powell said Tuesday the Fed would have cut rates already if not for Trump\u0026rsquo;s tariff policies, while maintaining he cannot be legally forced out without cause under Supreme Court precedent. More - BBC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇨🇳 China, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, authorities have intensified their crackdown on criminal activities, leading to notable arrests. A Malaysian woman was apprehended with 2kg of cannabis and methamphetamine concealed in her motorcycle, while another individual was sentenced for facilitating credit card fraud across the city-state. Additionally, the Singapore Police Force has linked a series of in-flight thefts to organized crime syndicates, underscoring the ongoing challenges in maintaining security in the region [[SOURCE - Malay Mail]](https://www.malaymail.com/news/singapore/2025/06/26/singapore-authorities-nab-malaysian-woman-at-woodlands-with-2kg-of-cannabis-and-ice-hidden-in-motorcycle/181746\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/03/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-b1af/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"breaking-ferry-sinks-off-bali-us-claims-1-2-year-setback-to-iran-nuclear-program-trump-demands-fed-chair-quit\"\u003eBreaking: Ferry Sinks Off Bali, US Claims 1-2 Year Setback to Iran Nuclear Program, Trump Demands Fed Chair Quit\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇩** Breaking: Ferry Sinks Off Bali**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDozens missing after ferry carrying 65 people sinks off Indonesia’s Bali. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/3/dozens-missing-after-ferry-carrying-65-people-sinks-off-indonesias-bali\"\u003eLive Tracker - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇷** US Claims 1-2 Year Setback to Iran Nuclear Program**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePentagon officials said US airstrikes set back Iran\u0026rsquo;s nuclear program by one to two years, backing Trump\u0026rsquo;s claims the facilities were \u0026ldquo;completely obliterated\u0026rdquo; despite earlier Defense Intelligence Agency assessments suggesting only months of delay. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the strikes at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz degraded Iran\u0026rsquo;s physical capability to construct a bomb, though the location of Iran\u0026rsquo;s 409-kilogram near-bomb-grade uranium inventory remains unknown. Iran has cut communication with IAEA officials and formally ended inspections after the June strikes. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-02/iran-strikes-set-back-nuke-program-by-up-to-two-years-us-says\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Trump Won\u0026rsquo;t Delay Tariff Deadline, Thai PM Suspended, Israel Kills 109 in Gaza While Trump Promises to be ‘Firm’ Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇸** Trump Won\u0026rsquo;t Delay Tariff Deadline**\nPresident Trump ruled out extending his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume, threatening to impose duties on several nations despite ongoing negotiations. So far, only the UK and China have put trade frameworks in place and no deals have been formalized, despite the 90-day delay. Trump criticized Japan, particularly for not accepting US rice exports, and said he would impose 30-35% tariffs due to trade imbalances, calling the country \u0026ldquo;very spoiled\u0026rdquo; and doubting a deal will be reached. Markets reacted with the S\u0026amp;P 500 dropping 14 points on the news, while Trump sounded more optimistic about finalizing a trade agreement with India within days. More - Bloomberg\n🇹🇭** Thai PM Suspended Over Call with Cambodia**\nThailand\u0026rsquo;s Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra while considering her dismissal over a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, where she called him \u0026ldquo;uncle\u0026rdquo; and criticized a Thai military commander. The 38-year-old leader, whose approval rating plummeted from 30.9% to 9.2%, has 15 days to defend herself as deputy PM serves as acting leader. If dismissed, she would be the second Pheu Thai prime minister removed since August and the third Shinawatra family member to lose power before completing their term. More - BBC\n🇵🇸** Israel Kills 109 in Gaza While Trump Promises to be ‘Firm’ with Netanyahu**\nIsraeli forces killed at least 109 Palestinians across Gaza, including 16 aid seekers shot at distribution hubs, as Trump vowed to be \u0026ldquo;very firm\u0026rdquo; with Netanyahu during next week\u0026rsquo;s White House visit. The attacks destroyed homes in northern and southern Gaza amid fears of another ground invasion, with 82% of the territory now under Israeli military control or forced displacement threats. Nearly 600 Palestinians have been killed at controversial US-Israeli backed aid sites since late May, prompting 170 international charities to demand the program\u0026rsquo;s immediate end. More - Al Jazeera\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nReg Carpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/02/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-8175/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trump-wont-delay-tariff-deadline-thai-pm-suspended-israel-kills-109-in-gaza-while-trump-promises-to-be-firm\"\u003eTrump Won\u0026rsquo;t Delay Tariff Deadline, Thai PM Suspended, Israel Kills 109 in Gaza While Trump Promises to be ‘Firm’\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸** Trump Won\u0026rsquo;t Delay Tariff Deadline**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePresident Trump ruled out extending his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume, threatening to impose duties on several nations despite ongoing negotiations. So far, only the UK and China have put trade frameworks in place and no deals have been formalized, despite the 90-day delay. Trump criticized Japan, particularly for not accepting US rice exports, and said he would impose 30-35% tariffs due to trade imbalances, calling the country \u0026ldquo;very spoiled\u0026rdquo; and doubting a deal will be reached. Markets reacted with the S\u0026amp;P 500 dropping 14 points on the news, while Trump sounded more optimistic about finalizing a trade agreement with India within days. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/trump-dismisses-extension-of-july-9-tariff-deadline-hits-japan\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"European Heat Wave, Iran Refuses IAEA Inspection Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇪🇺** European Heat Wave \u0026lsquo;Unprecedented\u0026rsquo;**\nFrance issued red alerts for 16 regions including Paris as \u0026ldquo;unprecedented\u0026rdquo; heat grips Europe, with 84 of 96 mainland regions under warnings and nearly 200 schools closed. Spain and Portugal recorded their hottest June days ever at 46 °C and 46.6 °C respectively, while 21 Italian cities, including Rome, are on the highest alert with hospitals reporting 10% more heatstroke cases. The extreme temperatures have sparked wildfires across Turkey, Croatia and Greece, forced evacuations, and lowered Rhine River levels, disrupting cargo shipping. More - BBC\n🇮🇷** Iran Refuses IAEA Inspection**\nIran\u0026rsquo;s Foreign Minister dismissed IAEA chief Rafael Grossi\u0026rsquo;s request to visit nuclear facilities bombed by Israel and the US, calling it \u0026ldquo;meaningless and possibly malign in intent.\u0026rdquo; Iranian lawmakers voted to suspend IAEA cooperation citing the agency\u0026rsquo;s failure to condemn the attacks and its June 12 non-compliance resolution passed the day before Israel struck. France, Germany and Britain condemned unspecified \u0026ldquo;threats\u0026rdquo; against Grossi, while Iran reported 935 people killed during the 12-day conflict, including 132 women and 38 children. More - Al Jazeera\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s economy is currently grappling with significant challenges, as rising imports and declining exports have exacerbated the current account deficit. Despite a growing budget surplus in May, the nation continues to face substantial debt and spending issues [SOURCE - Rio Times]. In the political arena, Brazil\u0026rsquo;s proposal for a nuclear bomb has garnered attention in the Senate amid escalating global tensions, raising questions about its foreign policy direction, particularly its pro-Iran stance, which seems to distance the country from Washington\u0026rsquo;s influence [SOURCE - Rio Times].\nInternationally, India\u0026rsquo;s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to attend the BRICS summit in Brazil, where discussions will focus on defense and anti-terro\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/07/01/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-ac7a/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"european-heat-wave-iran-refuses-iaea-inspection\"\u003eEuropean Heat Wave, Iran Refuses IAEA Inspection\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇪🇺** European Heat Wave \u0026lsquo;Unprecedented\u0026rsquo;**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFrance issued red alerts for 16 regions including Paris as \u0026ldquo;unprecedented\u0026rdquo; heat grips Europe, with 84 of 96 mainland regions under warnings and nearly 200 schools closed. Spain and Portugal recorded their hottest June days ever at 46 °C and 46.6 °C respectively, while 21 Italian cities, including Rome, are on the highest alert with hospitals reporting 10% more heatstroke cases. The extreme temperatures have sparked wildfires across Turkey, Croatia and Greece, forced evacuations, and lowered Rhine River levels, disrupting cargo shipping. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y7781e915o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Israel’s Gaza Campaign Grinds On Andrew Sheves Comment - I haven’t included an update on Gaza every day, but the summary below is sadly not unusual. Between 50 and 100 people are being killed daily, and many more are injured in the ongoing campaign. Meanwhile, a grotesque real-life Hunger Games is taking place, requiring people to run a ‘free fire’ gauntlet to reach food distribution sites.\nPeace talks are ongoing, but the gulf between the parties remains significant and the desire to genuinely reach a deal is questionable.\nAhmed Fouad Alkhatib is worth following on X for some unique insight and perspectives on this issue.\n🇵🇸** Israel’s Gaza Campaign Grinds On**\nIsraeli strikes across Gaza killed at least 72 Palestinians since dawn Sunday, including five aid seekers near food distribution centers and dozens in Gaza City neighborhoods. Over 580 people have been killed and 4,000 wounded at US-Israel backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation sites since late May, with Israeli soldiers reportedly ordered to fire at unarmed crowds. Meanwhile, Trump intensified ceasefire pressure, posting \u0026ldquo;MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA\u0026rdquo; while intervening in Netanyahu\u0026rsquo;s corruption trial, which was postponed citing security grounds. More - Al Jazeera\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/30/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-481d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israels-gaza-campaign-grinds-on\"\u003eIsrael’s Gaza Campaign Grinds On\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n\u003cstrong\u003eComment\u003c/strong\u003e - I haven’t included an update on Gaza every day, but the summary below is sadly not unusual. Between 50 and 100 people are being killed daily, and many more are injured in the ongoing campaign. Meanwhile, a grotesque real-life Hunger Games is taking place, requiring people to run a ‘free fire’ gauntlet to reach food distribution sites.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePeace talks are ongoing, but the gulf between the parties remains significant and the desire to genuinely reach a deal is questionable.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"US-China Trade Deal Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nIt’s a slimmed-down SITREP today from the woods of North Carolina so just the regional summary and one story of note. Normal service will resume on Monday.\nUS China Trade Deal Finalized\nThe US and China signed a trade understanding two days ago that codifies terms from Geneva talks, with China committing to deliver rare earth materials in exchange for US lifting export restrictions. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal removes US \u0026ldquo;countermeasures\u0026rdquo; on ethane, chip software and jet engines once rare earth shipments begin flowing. Trump plans to finalize trade deals with 10 major partners by his July 9 deadline to reinstate higher tariffs, sorting countries into \u0026ldquo;proper buckets\u0026rdquo; based on negotiation outcomes. More - Bloomberg\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is grappling with an alarming surge in violence, particularly against children in conflict zones. A recent UN report highlighted that in 2024, there were 41,370 grave violations against children in armed conflicts, exacerbated by the ongoing Israeli war in Gaza. This escalation has resulted in a record-high number of refugees, while global aid funding has simultaneously declined. Notably, Heineken has had to shut down its breweries in the DRC due to armed group takeovers, illustrating the dire economic impact of the violence [SOURCE - TASS] [SOURCE - RFI] [SOURCE - Rio Times].\nIn a bid to address the escalating conflict, diplomatic efforts are underway. The United States, under the leadership of President Trump and Senator Rubio, has played a pivotal role in brokering a peace treaty between the DRC and Rwanda, a move that has garnered international attention. Pakistan has even nominated Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for his involvement in this peace initiative [SOURCE - Japan Times] [[SOURCE - New York Post]](https://nypost.com/2025/06/21/us-news/trump-rubio-secure-rwanda-congo-peace-treaty-after-pakist\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/27/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-d530/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-china-trade-deal\"\u003eUS-China Trade Deal\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eIt’s a slimmed-down SITREP today from the woods of North Carolina so just the regional summary and one story of note. Normal service will resume on Monday.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eUS China Trade Deal Finalized\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe US and China signed a trade understanding two days ago that codifies terms from Geneva talks, with China committing to deliver rare earth materials in exchange for US lifting export restrictions. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal removes US \u0026ldquo;countermeasures\u0026rdquo; on ethane, chip software and jet engines once rare earth shipments begin flowing. Trump plans to finalize trade deals with 10 major partners by his July 9 deadline to reinstate higher tariffs, sorting countries into \u0026ldquo;proper buckets\u0026rdquo; based on negotiation outcomes. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/us-china-have-finalized-tariff-understanding-lutnick-says\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Trump Announces Iran Talks, Kenya Protests Kill 16, Injure Hundreds Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇸** 🇮🇷 Trump Announces Iran Talks**\nPresident Trump said the US will meet with Iran next week but questioned the need for a nuclear agreement, claiming American bombing \u0026ldquo;obliterated\u0026rdquo; key atomic sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. Trump declared the Middle East conflict \u0026ldquo;over\u0026rdquo; as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held for a second day, though he disputed Pentagon intelligence that the strikes only set back Iran\u0026rsquo;s nuclear program by months. Iran\u0026rsquo;s Foreign Ministry confirmed nuclear installations were \u0026ldquo;badly damaged\u0026rdquo; while parliament approved suspending IAEA cooperation until sites are secured. More - Bloomberg\n🇰🇪** Kenya Protests Kill 16, Injure Hundreds**\nAt least 16 people were killed and 400 injured as thousands marched across Kenya demanding President William Ruto\u0026rsquo;s resignation, exactly one year after deadly anti-government demonstrations. Police used tear gas and blocked roads to State House and parliament as protesters chanted \u0026ldquo;Ruto must go\u0026rdquo; and attempted to storm the presidential residence. The government initially banned live broadcast coverage of the protests, but Kenya\u0026rsquo;s High Court overturned the decree as demonstrators waved branches symbolizing peaceful opposition. More - BBC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary Singapore\u0026rsquo;s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong undertook his inaugural official visit to China, underscoring the importance of bilateral relations amid global uncertainties. This visit is viewed as a strategic move to bolster economic cooperation between the two nations, reflecting Singapore\u0026rsquo;s commitment to maintaining strong ties with its largest trading partner [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nIn a separate incident, Singapore successfully evacuated four citizens from Iran, with assistance from Oman and Malaysia, amidst escalating regional tensions. This operation highlights Singapore\u0026rsquo;s proactive approach to ensuring the safety of its nationals abroad [SOURCE - Malay Mail].\nMeanwhile, Malaysia secured RM4.6 billion in investments at the SEMICON SEA 2025 event, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pr\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/26/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-e9a9/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trump-announces-iran-talks-kenya-protests-kill-16-injure-hundreds\"\u003eTrump Announces Iran Talks, Kenya Protests Kill 16, Injure Hundreds\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸** \u003cstrong\u003e🇮🇷\u003c/strong\u003e Trump Announces Iran Talks**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePresident Trump said the US will meet with Iran next week but questioned the need for a nuclear agreement, claiming American bombing \u0026ldquo;obliterated\u0026rdquo; key atomic sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. Trump declared the Middle East conflict \u0026ldquo;over\u0026rdquo; as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held for a second day, though he disputed Pentagon intelligence that the strikes only set back Iran\u0026rsquo;s nuclear program by months. Iran\u0026rsquo;s Foreign Ministry confirmed nuclear installations were \u0026ldquo;badly damaged\u0026rdquo; while parliament approved suspending IAEA cooperation until sites are secured. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-25/trump-says-us-iran-to-hold-talks-next-week-mideast-war-over\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Israel-Iran Conflict Latest, Trump Rejects DIA Iran Strike Assessment, Gaza Aid \u0026lsquo;Death Trap\u0026rsquo;, Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nAdmin note: I am traveling for the next few days so the SITREPS will be slimmed down for the remainder of the week.\nAs a reminder, you can access country reports anytime through your workspace account or via the Chrome extension.\n🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Latest**\nThis will be the last daily summary of the conflict unless the ceasefire breaks down\nCeasefire and Violations Ceasefire Brokered by Trump: President Donald Trump announced a \u0026ldquo;complete and total\u0026rdquo; ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 24. Despite this, the ceasefire has proved fragile, with both sides accused of violations123.\nViolations and Retaliations:\nIran: Shortly after the ceasefire announcement, Iran launched a fresh barrage of missiles into southern Israel, striking a residential building and killing four people. Iran’s foreign minister stated there was \u0026ldquo;no agreement\u0026rdquo; with Israel on any ceasefire but suggested Iran would halt its response if Israel stopped its \u0026ldquo;illegal aggression\u0026rdquo;24.\nIsrael: Israel responded to Iranian missile launches on June 24 with targeted airstrikes, including against a radar site and missile launchers, reportedly foiling a larger Iranian attack. The Israeli Air Force conducted five waves of airstrikes on Iran, including on regime targets in Tehran, killing hundreds of officials and paramilitary forces and reportedly eliminating a senior nuclear scientist31.\nU.S. Involvement: The U.S. previously attacked Iranian nuclear sites with B-2 bombers on June 22, prompting Iran to retaliate by targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which led to temporary airspace closures in several Gulf countries[2](https://indianexpress.com/article/world/iran-israel-war-live-updates-trump-ceasefire-10084569/\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/25/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-35d2/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-iran-conflict-latest-trump-rejects-dia-iran-strike-assessment-gaza-aid-death-trap\"\u003eIsrael-Iran Conflict Latest, Trump Rejects DIA Iran Strike Assessment, Gaza Aid \u0026lsquo;Death Trap\u0026rsquo;,\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdmin note: I am traveling for the next few days so the SITREPS will be slimmed down for the remainder of the week.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs a reminder, you can access country reports anytime through your workspace account or \u003ca href=\"https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/decis-country-stability-r/kigihempleigpfcdjhpgopbbkbahhkdp?authuser=0\u0026amp;hl=en\u0026amp;utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;utm_campaign=wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus\"\u003evia the Chrome extension.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇱** \u003cstrong\u003e🇮🇷\u003c/strong\u003e Israel-Iran Conflict Latest**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis will be the last daily summary of the conflict unless the ceasefire breaks down\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Israel-Iran Ceasefire, Niger Nationalizes Uranium Mine, India Blames Pakistan for Kashmir Attack Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Ceasefire / Conflict Update**\n⚠️ As of writing at 05:30ET, there are reports that Iran just fired two missiles at Israel, reports that Iran’s State media has denied. The IDF has vowed that Israel will retaliate “with force” so there may be some last-minute confusion and exchange of fire before the ceasefire fully holds.\nLatest Developments (June 23–24, 2025) Military Actions and Damage Assessments\nMissile Strikes in Israel: A missile launched from Iran struck a residential building in Beer Sheva, southern Israel, killing three people (a man in his 40s, a woman in her 30s, and a man in his 20s). Six others were injured, with injuries ranging from light to moderate123.\nIsraeli Retaliation: Israel conducted airstrikes on Tehran overnight, targeting the Basij headquarters (a paramilitary organization) and Evin Prison (a facility holding regime dissidents), reportedly to disrupt internal security and potentially facilitate the escape of dissidents. Damage was also reported to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters and a power feeder in the Evin District, causing a local power outage42.\nUS Military Involvement: The conflict escalated after US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites on June 21, which the US Joint Chiefs of Staff described as causing \u0026ldquo;extreme damage\u0026rdquo; to Fordow, Natanz, and an unspecified facility in Esfahan. Israeli airstrikes targeted access roads to Fordow to prevent Iran from assessing damage or moving materials4.\nIranian Strike on US Base: Iran launched missiles at the US-operated Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The base had been evacuated days prior, and the incoming missiles were intercepted without casualties2.\nCasualties and Humanitarian Impact\nIsrael: At least three civilians killed and six injured in Beer Sheva[1](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-us-strikes-06-23-25-intl-hnk?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/24/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-9fa5/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-iran-ceasefire-niger-nationalizes-uranium-mine-india-blames-pakistan-for-kashmir-attack\"\u003eIsrael-Iran Ceasefire, Niger Nationalizes Uranium Mine, India Blames Pakistan for Kashmir Attack\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇱** \u003cstrong\u003e🇮🇷\u003c/strong\u003e Israel-Iran Ceasefire / Conflict Update**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e⚠️ As of writing at 05:30ET, there are reports that Iran just fired two missiles at Israel, reports that Iran’s State media has denied. The IDF has vowed that Israel will retaliate “with force” so there may be some last-minute confusion and exchange of fire before the ceasefire fully holds.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Israel-Iran Conflict Update, Syria Church Bombing Kills 22, Niger Army Base Attacked Andrew Sheves Good morning,\n🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Update**\nYesterday’s revised analysis following the US strikes is here\nKey Military Developments US Airstrikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites:\nThe United States conducted overnight strikes on June 22 targeting three key Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. The attacks used B-2 stealth bombers equipped with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles123.\nDamage Assessments:\nFordow: Satellite images show at least six apparent bomb entry points, indicating significant damage to the underground uranium enrichment facility4.\nIsfahan and Natanz: US and Israeli officials claim \u0026ldquo;extreme damage,\u0026rdquo; though Israeli sources note that Fordow was not completely destroyed. Satellite imagery confirms additional damage to buildings at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and possible strikes on new underground tunnel complexes south of Natanz34.\nNo Radiological Contamination: Both Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog reported no signs of radioactive contamination at any of the three sites1.\nStrike Damage to Fordow - Images Maxar\nIranian Retaliation:\nIran launched missile attacks targeting northern and central Israel, including Ben Gurion Airport, a \u0026ldquo;biological research centre,\u0026rdquo; logistics bases, and command centers. Iranian state media reported 30 missiles fired at Israel; Israeli rescue services confirmed emergency responses but did not immediately report casualties or damage1[5](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-iran-attacks-live-updates-us-bombs-donald-trump-nuclear-we\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/23/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-7186/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-iran-conflict-update-syria-church-bombing-kills-22-niger-army-base-attacked\"\u003eIsrael-Iran Conflict Update, Syria Church Bombing Kills 22, Niger Army Base Attacked\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇱** \u003cstrong\u003e🇮🇷\u003c/strong\u003e Israel-Iran Conflict Update**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"/2025/06/22/synthesized-intelligence-assessment-israel-iran-conflict-following-us-intervention/\"\u003eYesterday’s revised analysis following the US strikes is here\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"key-military-developments\"\u003eKey Military Developments\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eUS Airstrikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe United States conducted overnight strikes on June 22 targeting three key Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. The attacks used B-2 stealth bombers equipped with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles\u003ca href=\"https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-war-nuclear-trump-bomber-news-06-22-2025-c2baca52babe915e033ae175ce8b2687\"\u003e1\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-under-missile-attack-iran-says-all-options-open-after-us-strikes-2025-06-22/\"\u003e2\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-22-2025-morning-edition\"\u003e3\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Decis Analysis Dated June 22 2025 Good morning - here’s the latest synthesized analysis of the situation in the Middle East. There’s a separate investment memo available - please email me if you would like a copy.\nReminder, this is the initial analysis of a very dynamic situation conducted by AI. See the end of the report for full disclosures.\nCURRENT SITUATION Here is a detailed update on the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict over the last 24 hours (June 21–22, 2025), based on the most recent credible sources:\nKey Developments Military Operations and Strikes\nUS Joins Israel in Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites:\nOn the night of June 21–22, the United States launched \u0026ldquo;Operation Midnight Hammer,\u0026rdquo; targeting Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.\nThe operation involved B-2 bombers and a submarine firing Tomahawk cruise missiles, using advanced deception tactics to evade Iranian air defenses. Bunker-buster bombs were dropped on Fordow, with additional strikes at Natanz and Isfahan.\nUS President Donald Trump claimed the sites were \u0026ldquo;totally obliterated\u0026rdquo;.\nNo immediate retaliatory response from Iran was reported during the operation.\nIsraeli Strikes and Iranian Retaliation:\nIsrael continued its campaign targeting Iranian missile and drone launch sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure. Strikes were reported in Isfahan (centrifuge production facilities), Shiraz, and Khuzestan province (Ahvaz and Mahshahr).\nIran responded with large-scale missile and drone attacks on Israel, launching two waves of missiles early Sunday morning (June 22). At least 21 people were wounded in Israel, with four in serious condition. Air defenses intercepted most projectiles, but some strikes caused significant damage to buildings, including in Tel Aviv and Haifa.\nIsrael reported the destruction of eight missile launchers in western Iran, including six primed to launch against Israeli territory.\nCasualties and Damage\nIran:\nIranian state media reported at least 430 killed and 3,500 injured since the conflict began on June 13. The latest US and Israeli strikes are expected to increase these numbers, though specific figures for the last 24 hours are not yet available.\nSignificant infrastructure damage at nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan) is reported, especially to centrifuge production facilities.\nIsrael:\nAt least 24 civilians have been killed and over 21 wounded in the latest missile attacks, with impacts in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Beersheba.\nIsraeli air defenses have intercepted more than 450 missiles and around 1,000 drones since the conflict began.\nDiplomatic and Security Context\nNegotiations Fail:\nEuropean foreign ministers met with Iran’s chief diplomat in Geneva, but talks did not yield a diplomatic breakthrough.\nIran expressed willingness to engage in further talks only if Israeli aggression stops.\nNuclear Safety Concerns:\nThe International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned against attacks on Iran’s nuclear reactors, especially Bushehr, due to the risk of radioactive release. So far, only uranium enrichment and centrifuge facilities have been targeted.\nEffects on Markets and Commodities Oil Markets:\nThe conflict has heightened concerns about disruptions to oil supply from the Persian Gulf, one of the world’s most critical energy regions.\nAttacks on Khuzestan province, a major oil-producing area, and reports of \u0026ldquo;frightening explosions\u0026rdquo; in Ahvaz and Mahshahr have raised fears of infrastructure damage and potential supply shocks.\nOil prices have surged in response to the escalation, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both rising sharply in early Asian and European trading sessions. Although specific price movements for June 22 are not detailed in the latest reports, previous escalations have led to immediate price spikes of 5–10% in global benchmarks.\nMarket analysts warn of further volatility and potential for supply disruptions if the conflict continues to escalate or if critical oil export facilities are targeted.\nSummary Table Event/Impact\nDetails\nUS Strikes\nFordow, Natanz, Isfahan nuclear sites targeted; \u0026ldquo;totally oblit\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/22/synthesized-intelligence-assessment-israel-iran-conflict-following-us-intervention/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"decis-analysis-dated-june-22-2025\"\u003eDecis Analysis Dated June 22 2025\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning - here’s the latest synthesized analysis of the situation in the Middle East. There’s a separate investment memo available - please email me if you would like a copy.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eReminder, this is the initial analysis of a very dynamic situation conducted by AI. See the end of the report for full disclosures.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"current-situation\"\u003eCURRENT SITUATION\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere is a detailed update on the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict over the last 24 hours (June 21–22, 2025), based on the most recent credible sources:\u003c/p\u003e","title":"SYNTHESIZED INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: ISRAEL-IRAN CONFLICT FOLLOWING US INTERVENTION"},{"content":"Israel-Iran Latest Events, DRC - Rwanda Peace Draft, Mexico Cleans Up After Hurricane, Andrew Sheves Good morning\nLatest Developments in the Israel-Iran Conflict (June 19–20, 2025)\nDirect Military Actions Major Missile Attack on Hospital in Israel: On June 19, Iran launched a significant missile barrage against Israel, with a direct strike on Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, southern Israel. The attack left the hospital burning and resulted in at least 65 injuries. Overall, Iranian missile attacks since June 13 have killed 24 Israelis and wounded more than 800[1][3].\nIsraeli Strikes on Iranian Targets: In response, Israel’s Air Force conducted extensive operations over the past 24 hours. Sixty fighter jets participated in large-scale strikes on targets in Tehran associated with Iran’s nuclear weapons program and missile production capabilities. Israeli strikes hit centrifuge production, research and development sites, and the Tan police headquarters, believed to house internal security forces[2][3][4].\nTargeting of Nuclear Facilities: Notably, Israel struck the Arak Heavy Water Reactor and a storage facility connected to Iran’s nuclear program in Natanz. These are viewed as critical components in Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Additionally, Israeli forces have targeted at least six Iranian Ghadir radar installations, a key part of Iran’s air defense infrastructure[3][4].\nImpact on Iranian Military and Security Leadership: Israel has reportedly decapitated elements of Iran’s military leadership in its strikes, alongside attacking multiple nuclear facilities[4].\nRegional and International Responses Israeli Leadership Statements: Israel’s Defense Minister called out Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by name, suggesting that the IDF has been instructed to consider Khamenei a legitimate target. Israeli officials clarified their desire for regime change is not the primary goal—the focus is on neutralizing Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities[1][2].\nUS and Global Reactions: The US is weighing options, including the potential use of bunker buster bombs against Iranian nuclear facilities, but has yet to commit to direct intervention. Trump promised a decision “within two weeks”. Both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have discussed the crisis, indicating rising global concern[1].\nCyber Operations: Israel is also accused of hacking into Iranian state television broadcasts as part of its multi-domain campaign[2].\nDamage Assessments Human Impact: In Israel, at least 65 people were injured in the hospital strike alone. Total reported casualties since June 13 include over 800 wounded and 24 dead. The most recent Iranian missile volley caused more than 200 injuries in Israel[1][3][5].\nInfrastructure and Strategic Assets: The Soroka Medical Center sustained severe fire damage. In Iran, key nuclear and defense installations suffered extensive damage, including the Arak Heavy Water Reactor and major facilities in Natanz. Multiple advanced military radars and command centers were also destroyed or severely damaged[3][4].\nEffects on Markets and Commodities Oil Markets: While the search results do not provide up-to-the-minute oil price data, such large-scale military exchanges and direct strikes on critical infrastructure in both Iran and Israel are historically known to cause significant volatility in global oil markets. Disruptions to Iranian oil exports or threats to regional stability (including the potential for exp\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/20/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-52af/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-iran-latest-events-drc---rwanda-peace-draft-mexico-cleans-up-after-hurricane\"\u003eIsrael-Iran Latest Events, DRC - Rwanda Peace Draft, Mexico Cleans Up After Hurricane,\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eLatest Developments in the Israel-Iran Conflict (June 19–20, 2025)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"direct-military-actions\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDirect Military Actions\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMajor Missile Attack on Hospital in Israel:\u003c/strong\u003e On June 19, Iran launched a significant missile barrage against Israel, with a direct strike on Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, southern Israel. The attack left the hospital burning and resulted in at least 65 injuries. Overall, Iranian missile attacks since June 13 have killed 24 Israelis and wounded more than 800[1][3].\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Latest Update on the Israel-Iran Conflict Andrew Sheves Good morning. Apologies for the late SITREP\nLatest Update Israel-Iran Conflict (June 18–19, 2025)\nEscalation and Military Developments\nOn June 18 and 19, the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified notably. Iran launched a new wave of missiles targeting central and southern Israel, inflicting significant damage on key infrastructure, including a direct hit on Soroka Hospital. This attack was part of an escalating cycle of retaliatory strikes between the two nations[1].\nIn response, Israeli forces targeted several Iranian military installations, including a reported airstrike on the Shahid Soltani Garrison, a facility linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) involved in missile storage and production. There were also credible reports that Israel hit Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, heightening concerns about the conflict’s nuclear risks[1][2].\nFor the first time, Iran employed its solid-fuel Sejjil ballistic missile in the strikes on Israel, underlining a significant shift in its missile capabilities. Since the start of Israel’s air campaign on June 12, there have been at least 39 reported or confirmed Iranian missile or interceptor impacts on Israeli territory[2].\nIsraeli air defenses intercepted additional drones attempting to enter Israeli airspace through the Golan Heights, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirming the interception of at least two drones after June 18[2].\nCasualties and Damage Assessment\nIranian missile barrages caused serious destruction in Israel, particularly to medical and civil infrastructure. Soroka Hospital, a key facility in southern Israel, sustained critical damage[1].\nCivilian casualties have occurred on both sides. An Iranian human rights group based in the U.S. estimates at least 585 fatalities in Iran, including 239 civilians, primarily resulting from Israeli airstrikes on military and suspected nuclear targets. In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed as a result of Iranian attacks[3][4].\nThere have also been reports of Iranian civilians killed in Israeli strikes, with additional injuries and fatalities likely given the continuing aerial assaults[3][4].\nEconomic Impacts\nThe direct damage to infrastructure—especially power, healthcare, and transportation facilities—has strained both countries\u0026rsquo; emergency response systems and threatened regional stability. The targeting of the Arak reactor, a sensitive nuclear site, also prompted investor concerns around global energy and commodity markets[1].\nHeightened risk perceptions have led to increased volatility in financial markets, with Israel and Iran both experiencing currency devaluations and capital outflows in response to uncertainty. The ongoing attacks have disrupted oil production and logistics in Iran, contributing to rising oil prices and amplifying fears of broader energy supply disruptions in global markets[1].\nRegional trade has been affected, with border closures and reduced commercial activity across neighboring countries as a precaution against possible spillover of hostilities[1][4].\nInternational and Regional Response\nThe intensification of the conflict has drawn expressions of concern and calls for restraint from global powers. There are growing fears of further escalation, particularly over the possibility of a confrontation involving nuclear facilities or drawing in other regional actors[1].\nCivilian populations in both countries are facing significant hardship due to infrastructure damage, casualties, and the psychological strai\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/19/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-e460/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"latest-update-on-the-israel-iran-conflict\"\u003eLatest Update on the Israel-Iran Conflict\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. Apologies for the late SITREP\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eLatest Update Israel-Iran Conflict (June 18–19, 2025)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEscalation and Military Developments\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn June 18 and 19, the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified notably. Iran launched a new wave of missiles targeting central and southern Israel, inflicting significant damage on key infrastructure, including a direct hit on Soroka Hospital. This attack was part of an escalating cycle of retaliatory strikes between the two nations[1].\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Israel-Iran Conflict Lates, Gaza Aid Site Massacre, Indonesia Volcano Alert Raised, Massive Russian Attack on Kyiv Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 **Israel-Iran Conflict Update: June 17–18, 2025\nOverview of the Last 24 Hours\n· Escalation of Hostilities: The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with both sides launching new waves of missile and air strikes. Early Wednesday, Iran fired two barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel, while Israel continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, especially around Tehran and Isfahan[1][2][3][4].\n· No Immediate Ceasefire: Despite international calls for de-escalation, both countries have signaled their intent to continue military operations. U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and is reportedly considering direct U.S. military involvement, though no such action has been taken yet[3][4].\nDamage Assessments\nIn Iran\n· Casualties: Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 585 people and wounded 1,326 others across Iran, according to the Human Rights Activists group. Of the dead, 239 have been identified as civilians and 126 as security personnel[5][6].\n· Infrastructure Damage: Israeli strikes have targeted key nuclear and military sites, including the Natanz enrichment facility (overground section destroyed), Isfahan’s uranium conversion facility (damaged), and missile production complexes. Civilian infrastructure and residential areas in Tehran and other cities have also been hit[1][7].\n· Nuclear Program Impact: The attacks have reportedly damaged Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but the underground Fordow facility remains intact. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed direct hits on Natanz[3][7].\nIn Israel\n· Casualties: Iranian missile and drone attacks have killed at least 24 civilians and wounded hundreds in Israel. Recent barrages caused fires and property damage in central Israel, but no new fatalities were reported in the last 24 hours[2][8].\n· Material Damage: Multiple buildings in Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan have been destroyed or damaged. Fires broke out in parking lots and residential areas, and missile debris has caused additional property loss[2][8].\nEffects on Markets and Commodities\nOil Markets\n· Price Surge: Oil prices have surged by over 4% in the last 24 hours, with Brent crude reaching around $75 per barrel, the highest since January. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also saw significant gains[1][9][10].\n· Market Volatility: The conflict has injected substantial volatility into global energy markets. The risk premium for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz has increased sharply, with daily rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) up 40% since June 13[10].\n· Shipping Disruptions: While the Strait of Hormuz remains open, there have been incidents such as a collision and fire involving oil tankers near the strait, and widespread electronic interference affecting ship navigation. Qatar’s national energy firm has advised tankers to avoid the area except for immediate loading[10][11].\nBroader Economic Impact\n· Investor Caution: Markets are in a “wait-and-s\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/18/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-8205/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-iran-conflict-lates-gaza-aid-site-massacre-indonesia-volcano-alert-raised-massive-russian-attack-on-kyiv\"\u003eIsrael-Iran Conflict Lates, Gaza Aid Site Massacre, Indonesia Volcano Alert Raised, Massive Russian Attack on Kyiv\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇱** \u003cstrong\u003e🇮🇷\u003c/strong\u003e **\u003cstrong\u003eIsrael-Iran Conflict Update: June 17–18, 2025\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOverview of the Last 24 Hours\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e· \u003cstrong\u003eEscalation of Hostilities:\u003c/strong\u003e The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with both sides launching new waves of missile and air strikes. Early Wednesday, Iran fired two barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel, while Israel continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, especially around Tehran and Isfahan\u003ca href=\"#fn1\"\u003e[1]\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"#fn2\"\u003e[2]\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"#fn3\"\u003e[3]\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"#fn4\"\u003e[4]\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Israel-Iran Latest, Nigeria Attack Kills 100 in East, Mexican Mayor Shot Dead Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Update: June 16–17, 2025**\nOverview\nThe conflict between Israel and Iran has sharply escalated over the past 24 hours, with both countries exchanging missile and drone strikes, resulting in significant casualties, infrastructure damage, and global market volatility123.\nMilitary and Civilian Developments\nIsraeli Strikes on Iran\nIsrael continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including IRGC and Artesh Air Force positions in Tehran Province, and missile launch sites in Markazi and Qom provinces23.\nIsraeli strikes destroyed a significant portion of Iran\u0026rsquo;s ballistic missile launchers and military aircraft, with the IDF claiming to have achieved \u0026ldquo;full air supremacy\u0026rdquo; over Tehran23.\nIsraeli attacks also targeted the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB in Tehran and damaged oil infrastructure, including the Bazan Oil Refinery in Haifa, which was shut down due to missile strikes23.\nCivilian casualties in Iran remain high, with reports indicating over 224 deaths and 1,277 injuries since the escalation began, the majority being civilians14.\nIranian Response\nIran launched a new wave of missile and drone attacks on Israel, with over 545 drones and hundreds of missiles fired since Ju\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/17/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-d011/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-iran-latest-nigeria-attack-kills-100-in-east-mexican-mayor-shot-dead\"\u003eIsrael-Iran Latest, Nigeria Attack Kills 100 in East, Mexican Mayor Shot Dead\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇱** \u003cstrong\u003e🇮🇷\u003c/strong\u003e Israel-Iran Conflict Update: June 16–17, 2025**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOverview\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe conflict between Israel and Iran has sharply escalated over the past 24 hours, with both countries exchanging missile and drone strikes, resulting in significant casualties, infrastructure damage, and global market volatility\u003ca href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/israel-iran-battle-escalates-will-be-high-agenda-world-leaders-meet-2025-06-16/\"\u003e1\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-16-2025-evening-edition\"\u003e2\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Israel\"\u003e3\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMilitary and Civilian Developments\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIsraeli Strikes on Iran\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including IRGC and Artesh Air Force positions in Tehran Province, and missile launch sites in Markazi and Qom provinces\u003ca href=\"https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-16-2025-evening-edition\"\u003e2\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Israel\"\u003e3\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":" Analysis: +72 hours Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s Strikes Against Iran[ Decis Updated Assessment - Operation Rising Lion - 0600ET Monday, June 16 2025 Andrew Sheves\nUpdated Assessment on Iranian Response Scenarios as at 0600 ET June 16 Reminder\nThis is a rapidly developing situation and events may have changed since the time of this report. This report and the simulations were conducted using artificial intelligence. These include reasonable assumptions and best attempts to map out how events may unfold but there is significant uncertainty in these assessments. Full disclainers are contained at the end of the report.\nExecutive Summary The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated dramatically since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 12–13, 2025. The operation began with a surprise Israeli airstrike aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, targeting both military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction on both sides.\n1. Likely Iranian Response Scenarios Direct Military Retaliation: Iran may continue ballistic missile strikes against Israeli cities and critical infrastructure, leveraging its remaining missile arsenal.\nProxy Activation: Iran could activate Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi Shia militias to open secondary fronts, forcing Israel to fight on multiple theaters.\nAsymmetric Warfare: Increased focus on cyberattacks, sabotage, and terrorism targeting Israeli and Western interests globally.\nNuclear Acceleration: Iran may announce withdrawal from the NPT and accelerate uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels.\n2. Impact on Iran\u0026rsquo;s Strategic Capabilities Military: Loss of senior leadership and missile bases degrades Iran\u0026rsquo;s command-and-control and precision strike capabilities.\nNuclear Program: Damage to Natanz and Fordow slows but does not halt uranium enrichment; underground facilities remain intact.\nProxy Network: While degraded, proxies like Hezbollah and Iraqi militias can still inflict harm, though their effectiveness may wane without direct Iranian support.\n3. Escalation Pathways Hezbollah Activation: Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel could draw in Lebanon.\nHouthi Escalation: Increased attacks on Red Sea shipping and Saudi/UAE targets.\nUS Involvement: Direct US military support for Israel could expand the conflict.\nNuclear Brinkmanship: Iran\u0026rsquo;s acceleration of nuclear enrichment could prompt further Israeli strikes.\nKey Decision Points:\nIranian Supreme Leader\u0026rsquo;s willingness to escalate despite regime instability.\nUS policy on military support to Israel.\nSaudi/UAE calculus on intervention vs. neutrality.\n4. Domestic Upheaval Threshold Economic Collapse: Iran\u0026rsquo;s economy, already strained, may face further instability if energy infrastructure is targeted.\nRegime Legitimacy: Significant civilian casualties and military defeats cou\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/16/analysis-post-strike-escalation-scenarios-and-regional-stability-assessment-following-israel-s-opera-b008/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAnalysis: +72 hours Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s Strikes Against Iran[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"decis-updated-assessment---operation-rising-lion---0600et-monday-june-16-2025\"\u003eDecis Updated Assessment - Operation Rising Lion - 0600ET Monday, June 16 2025\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"updated-assessment-on-iranian-response-scenarios-as-at-0600-et-june-16\"\u003eUpdated Assessment on Iranian Response Scenarios as at 0600 ET June 16\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eReminder\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis is a rapidly developing situation and events may have changed since the time of this report. This report and the simulations were conducted using artificial intelligence. These include reasonable assumptions and best attempts to map out how events may unfold but there is significant uncertainty in these assessments. Full disclainers are contained at the end of the report.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Analysis: +72 hours Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel's Strikes Against Iran"},{"content":"Operation Rising Lion Update, G7 Meeting in Canada Andrew Sheves Good morning,\nHere’s a summary of the latest Decis assessment of Israel’s Operation ‘Rising Lion’ against Iran. The full assessment will be published here at 07:30ET\nOverview of the Conflict The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated dramatically since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 12–13, 2025. The operation began with a surprise Israeli airstrike aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, targeting both military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction on both sides.\nKey Developments Operation Rising Lion: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the operation as a \u0026ldquo;deliberate military action aimed at mitigating the Iranian threat to Israel\u0026rsquo;s very existence,\u0026rdquo; emphasizing that Iran had made unprecedented moves to weaponize enriched uranium, posing an immediate threat to Israel.\nTargets and Tactics: Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities (notably Natanz, Fordow, and Piranshahr), ballistic missile bases (Kermanshah, Tabriz), and military leadership, including top IRGC officers and nuclear scientists. Israel also struck Iranian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and fuel depots.\nIranian Response: Iran retaliated with over 270 ballistic missile launches at Israel since Friday, with 22 missiles breaching Israel’s air defenses and causing significant damage and casualties. Iran has also threatened \u0026ldquo;unleash hell\u0026rdquo; and has increased its targeting of Israeli civilian areas.\nDamage and Casualty Assessments Iran Civilian and Military Deaths: Iranian health officials report at least 224 people killed, with approximately 90% being civilians, and 1,277 injured since the conflict began.\nInfrastructure Damage:\nNatanz Nuclear Facility: Multiple above-ground buildings destroyed or damaged, including power supply structures. Underground enrichment halls appear intact.\nOther Nuclear Sites: Damage reported at Fordow and Piranshahr nuclear facilities, as well as the IRGC’s Ghadir site.\nMissile Bases: Significant damage at Kermanshah and Tabriz missile bases, with satellite imagery showing widespread burns and destruction.\nEnergy Infrastructure: Strikes on oil refineries and fuel depots, including fires at the Shahran oil depot north of Tehran and a fuel tank south of the city.\nGovernment Buildings: Damage reported at the Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry, and other government sites.\nIsrael Civilian and Military Deaths: At least 14–18 people killed (reports vary by source), with several children among the dead, and hundreds injured.\nInfrastructure Damage:\nResidential Areas: Missiles struck multiple cities, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, Petah Tikva, and Bnei Brak. A 10-story building in Bat Yam was reduced to rubble, killing a family of five; other residential buildings were partially collapsed or severely damaged.\nHaifa Oil Refinery: Damaged by Iranian missile strikes, with fires reported.\nAirport Closure: Israel’s main international airport and airspace closed for three consecutive days due to ongoing missile threats.\nMilitary and Leadership Losses Iran: High-profile casualties include Revolutionary Guard intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi, his deputy, and other top IRGC officers and nuclear scientists.\n**\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/16/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-fbf8/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"operation-rising-lion-update-g7-meeting-in-canada\"\u003eOperation Rising Lion Update, G7 Meeting in Canada\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere’s a summary of the latest Decis assessment of Israel’s Operation ‘Rising Lion’ against Iran. \u003ca href=\"/2025/06/16/analysis-post-strike-escalation-scenarios-and-regional-stability-assessment-following-israel-s-opera-b008/\"\u003eThe full assessment will be published here at 07:30ET\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"overview-of-the-conflict\"\u003eOverview of the Conflict\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated dramatically since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 12–13, 2025. The operation began with a surprise Israeli airstrike aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, targeting both military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction on both sides.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":" Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion\u0026rdquo; Against Iran[ Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion\u0026rdquo; Against Iran Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion\u0026rdquo; Against Iran Decis Initial Assessment Dated 07:00ET Friday, June 13 2025 Andrew Sheves\nEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Iran will likely execute a calibrated multi-phase response combining direct military action, proxy activation, and accelerated nuclear development. The elimination of senior leadership creates dangerous unpredictability in Iranian decision-making. Regional escalation to broader conflict assessed as HIGH PROBABILITY (65-75%) within 30 days.\nThe most probable Iranian response trajectory shows 72% confidence for a three-phase escalation beginning with limited direct military response and proxy activation, followed by accelerated nuclear program restart and economic warfare, culminating in development of new command structures and regional diplomatic initiatives over 90 days.\nCaveat: This is an initial assessment conducted while events were still unfolding. This analysis and research was conducted with artificial intelligence\nAssessment note (added 0900ET June 13) Reports this morning indicate that not only was the US not involved in this attack, but that this attack took place despite US urging to Israel to not attack Iran at this point. This indicates a severe erosion of US soft power with respect to Israel and therefore these assessments were conducted by the models using a possibly outdated assessment of US influence. We will adjust settings for future analysis to account for a potential reduction in US influence and involvement.\n**Tasking ** Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion\u0026rdquo; Against Iran\nKEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS: What are the most likely Iranian response scenarios to Israel\u0026rsquo;s June 13, 2025 strikes, and what factors will drive Iranian decision-making in the next 30-90 days?\nHow will the elimination of senior Iranian military leadership and damage to nuclear facilities affect Iran\u0026rsquo;s strategic capabilities and regional proxy network operations?\nWhat are the potential escalation pathways that could lead to broader regional conflict, and what are the key decision points for major regional actors?\nAt what point could the regime seem sufficiently weakened for domestic upheaval?\nTable of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY\nTasking KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS:\nSituation and Events Summary\nOperation Rising Lion: Israel\u0026rsquo;s Strike on Iran\nUpdated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025\nTimeline of Events\nPrimary Targets\nGeographic Scope\nCasualties and Leadership Losses\nCovert Operations\nIranian Response\nIsraeli Response and Preparations\nRegional and International Disruptions\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/13/analysis-post-strike-escalation-scenarios-and-regional-stability-assessment-following-israel-s-opera/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAnalysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion\u0026rdquo; Against Iran[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAnalysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion\u0026rdquo; Against Iran\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"analysis-post-strike-escalation-scenarios-and-regional-stability-assessment-following-israels-operation-rising-lion-against-iran\"\u003eAnalysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion\u0026rdquo; Against Iran\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"decis-initial-assessment-dated-0700et-friday-june-13-2025\"\u003eDecis Initial Assessment Dated 07:00ET Friday, June 13 2025\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"executive-summary\"\u003eEXECUTIVE SUMMARY\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIran will likely execute a calibrated multi-phase response combining direct military action, proxy activation, and accelerated nuclear development. The elimination of senior leadership creates dangerous unpredictability in Iranian decision-making. Regional escalation to broader conflict assessed as \u003cstrong\u003eHIGH PROBABILITY (65-75%)\u003c/strong\u003e within 30 days.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel's Operation Rising Lion Against Iran"},{"content":"Israel Strikes Iran, Air India Crash Kills 241, Marines Deploy to LA as US Protests Spread, China Drops Africa Tariffs plus Weekend Diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning and apologies for the delayed SITREP.\n🚨** **Operation Rising Lion: Israel\u0026rsquo;s Strike on Iran\n**This is the initial briefing from the Decis Analysis engine. **The full Decis analysis and scenario forecasts are here Updated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025\nTimeline of Events Early hours of June 13, 2025: Israel launches a large-scale military operation against Iran, codenamed \u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion.\u0026rdquo; The strikes involve approximately 200 aircraft targeting roughly 100 sites across Iran. The operation is described as an extended campaign and represents the widest direct attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War.\nPrimary Targets Nuclear Facilities:\nNatanz uranium enrichment facility (Iran\u0026rsquo;s primary uranium enrichment site): Significant damage reported to underground enrichment halls, centrifuges, electrical rooms, and supporting infrastructure. Reuters, Israel Hayom, CNN. No radiation leaks detected according to UN IAEA monitoring.\nIsfahan nuclear facility: Also targeted in the operation.\nMilitary Infrastructure:\nMissile manufacturing facilities and long-range missile launch sites: Multiple locations attacked. Reuters, Israel Hayom, CNN\nMilitary airfields and air defense systems: Numerous air defense launchers reportedly destroyed in western Iran. CNN\nBallistic missile bases: Targeted across multiple regions.\nCommand and Control Centers:\nIRGC headquarters in Tehran: Damaged in strikes. Reuters, WSJ,[ Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/13/israel-attacksiran-what-we-know-so-far?utm_source=n\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/13/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-774d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-strikes-iran-air-india-crash-kills-241-marines-deploy-to-la-as-us-protests-spread-china-drops-africa-tariffs-plus-weekend-diversions\"\u003eIsrael Strikes Iran, Air India Crash Kills 241, Marines Deploy to LA as US Protests Spread, China Drops Africa Tariffs plus Weekend Diversions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and apologies for the delayed SITREP.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🚨** **\u003cstrong\u003eOperation Rising Lion: Israel\u0026rsquo;s Strike on Iran\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e**This is the initial briefing from the Decis Analysis engine. **\u003ca href=\"/2025/06/13/analysis-post-strike-escalation-scenarios-and-regional-stability-assessment-following-israel-s-opera/?draft=true\"\u003eThe full Decis analysis and scenario forecasts are here \u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eUpdated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"timeline-of-events\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTimeline of Events\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEarly hours of June 13, 2025\u003c/strong\u003e: Israel launches a large-scale military operation against Iran, codenamed \u003cstrong\u003e\u0026ldquo;Operation Rising Lion.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/strong\u003e The strikes involve approximately 200 aircraft targeting roughly 100 sites across Iran. The operation is described as an extended campaign and represents the widest direct attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Air India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off, IAEA Censures Iran and US Draws Down Regional Presence, Anti-Immigrant Riots in Northern Ireland Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🚨** Breaking - Air India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off**\nAn Air India jet headed from Ahmedabad to London crashed shortly after takeoff. Via the BBC “Air India has set up a dedicated passenger hotline number. Families in India seeking more information can call 1800 5691 444” Live Tracker - BBC\n🇮🇷** IAEA Censures Iran, US Draws Down Regional Presence**\nThe UN nuclear watchdog\u0026rsquo;s board voted 19-3 to declare Iran non-compliant with nuclear safeguards, the first such censure in nearly 20 years. Iran immediately vowed to build a new enrichment facility and upgrade centrifuges at Fordow, while warning it could exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty if sanctions follow. The resolution comes days before US-Iran nuclear talks resume Sunday in Oman amid escalating regional tensions. More - Al Jazeera\nMeanwhile, as rumors circulate of a strike on Iran if talks collapse, The US ordered partial evacuation of its Baghdad embassy staff amid rising tensions. Iran has threatened to strike American assets if attacked over its nuclear program. The move follows reports that Israel is ready to launch operations against Iran and comes ahead of the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Sunday in Oman. Oil prices initially jumped on the news before reversing gains, while the UK Navy warned shipping of potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. More - Bloomberg\nNote - the first place I saw the US drawdown reported was by Charles Lister on X early Wednesday morning so it’s worth adding his account to your watchlist if you have interests in the region.\n🇬🇧** Anti-Immigrant Riots in Northern Ireland **\nTwo nights of riots erupted in Ballymena, Northern Ireland, after two 14-year-old boys were charged with sexual assault and required a Romanian interpreter in court, sparking speculation about their nationality. Over 32 officers were injured as masked rioters attacked immigrant neighborhoods with bricks, petrol bombs, and arson, forcing families to flee or hide in attics. Police deployed water cannons and arrested five people while warning of potential continued violence. More - Washington Post\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kaza\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/12/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-1590/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"air-india-jet-crashes-shortly-after-take-off-iaea-censures-iran-and-us-draws-down-regional-presence-anti-immigrant-riots-in-northern-ireland\"\u003eAir India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off, IAEA Censures Iran and US Draws Down Regional Presence, Anti-Immigrant Riots in Northern Ireland\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🚨** Breaking - Air India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn Air India jet headed from Ahmedabad to London crashed shortly after takeoff. Via the BBC “\u003cem\u003eAir India has set up a dedicated passenger hotline number. Families in India seeking more information can call 1800 5691 444\u003c/em\u003e” \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c8d1r3m8z92t\"\u003eLive Tracker - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Austrian School Shooting, UK and Allies Sanction Israeli Ministers, Kirchner Banned From Office Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇦🇹** 10 Killed in Austrian School Shooting**\nA 21-year-old former student killed 10 people at a Graz secondary school before taking his own life, marking Austria\u0026rsquo;s deadliest gun attack in recent history. The gunman legally owned the two firearms used and acted alone, with his motive still under investigation. Austria declared three days of national mourning, with Chancellor Christian Stocker calling it a \u0026ldquo;national tragedy.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇮🇱** UK and Allies Sanction Israeli Ministers**\nThe UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway will impose asset freezes and travel bans on Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich for inciting violence against Palestinians. Israel called the move \u0026ldquo;outrageous\u0026rdquo; and will convene a special meeting to formulate a response. The sanctions target key proponents of settlement expansion and Palestinian expulsion amid Israel\u0026rsquo;s ongoing military operations in Gaza and the West Bank. More - Al Jazeera\n🇦🇷** Kirchner Banned From Office for Life**\nArgentina\u0026rsquo;s Supreme Court upheld former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner\u0026rsquo;s fraud conviction, imposing a six-year prison sentence and lifetime ban from public office. The 72-year-old former leader, who remains Argentina\u0026rsquo;s second-most popular politician, is unlikely to serve jail time due to her age and will likely receive house arrest. The ruling eliminates her planned legislative candidacy and comes as President Milei faces crucial midterm elections in October. More - Bloomberg\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s parliament has voted to extend its moratorium on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) for an additional five years, citing concerns over the long-term effects of genetic engineering on human health and the environment. This decision comes amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty, as Swiss retailer Spar reports a significant decline in profits, raising questions about its future viability [[SOURCE - Citizen]](https://www.citizen.co.za/business/what-does-the-future-hold-for-spar-retailers-profits-nosedive/?utm_source=news.decis.a\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/11/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-bfac/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"austrian-school-shooting-uk-and-allies-sanction-israeli-ministers-kirchner-banned-from-office\"\u003eAustrian School Shooting, UK and Allies Sanction Israeli Ministers, Kirchner Banned From Office\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇹** 10 Killed in Austrian School Shooting**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA 21-year-old former student killed 10 people at a Graz secondary school before taking his own life, marking Austria\u0026rsquo;s deadliest gun attack in recent history. The gunman legally owned the two firearms used and acted alone, with his motive still under investigation. Austria declared three days of national mourning, with Chancellor Christian Stocker calling it a \u0026ldquo;national tragedy.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ced27g4e6xwo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Record Drone Strike on Ukraine Before POW Exchange, US-China Talks Continue Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇺🇦** Record Drone Strike on Ukraine Before POW Exchange**\nRussia launched 479 drones against Ukraine in the war\u0026rsquo;s largest overnight bombardment, with Ukrainian forces downing 460 drones and 19 missiles. The massive attack came despite Russia\u0026rsquo;s stated interest in peace talks and just before the start of a prisoner exchange involving around 1,200 POWs from each side. Only 10 projectiles reached their targets, injuring one person. More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇸** 🇨🇳 US-China Talks Continue**\nUS and China trade representatives will resume negotiations Tuesday after six hours of talks in London focused on tech exports and rare earth elements. The US signaled willingness to lift some technology restrictions in exchange for China easing rare earth export limits, though advanced AI chips remain off the table. Markets rallied on hopes of cooling tensions, with Chinese stocks entering a bull market. More - Bloomberg\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Economic concerns are rising in South Africa as the ban on poultry imports from Brazil threatens to spike meat prices and exacerbate food insecurity. FairPlay has warned that this could lead to increased hunger in South Africa, highlighting the interconnectedness of global trade and local food security [SOURCE - Citizen]. Meanwhile, Brazil has tapped into global debt markets for the second time this year, driven by rising debt levels and stalled reforms that keep the nation below investment grade [SOURCE - Financial Post].\nIn political developments, Brazil is experiencing significant upheaval as Carla Zambelli joins a conservative exodus amid strained relations with the United States, marked by a poorly attended dinner and denied access to the US military chief [[SOURCE - Rio Times]](https://www.riotimesonline.com/carla-zambelli-Joins-Conservative-Exodus-as-Brazil-Faces-Political-Upheaval/?utm_source=n\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/10/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-7b67/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"record-drone-strike-on-ukraine-before-pow-exchange-us-china-talks-continue\"\u003eRecord Drone Strike on Ukraine Before POW Exchange, US-China Talks Continue\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦** Record Drone Strike on Ukraine Before POW Exchange**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia launched 479 drones against Ukraine in the war\u0026rsquo;s largest overnight bombardment, with Ukrainian forces downing 460 drones and 19 missiles. The massive attack came despite Russia\u0026rsquo;s stated interest in peace talks and just before the start of a prisoner exchange involving around 1,200 POWs from each side. Only 10 projectiles reached their targets, injuring one person. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/9/russia-hits-ukraine-with-record-479-drone-strike-ahead-of-pow-swap\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions, Trump Travel Ban Expands as LA Riots Escalate, Kampala Suicide Bombing, Colombian Presidential Candidate Shot Andrew Sheves Good morning,\nFive stories to help you catch up after the weekend.\n🇹🇭** 🇰🇭 Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions**\nThailand and Cambodia will return forces to previously agreed positions after a May 28 firefight killed a Cambodian soldier along their disputed border. Thailand has taken control of all 17 border crossings and shortened operating hours at 10, citing threats to sovereignty. Cambodia seeks International Court resolution while Thailand prefers bilateral talks, leaving fundamental disagreements unresolved. More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇸** Trump Travel Ban Expands as LA Riots Escalate**\nThe Trump administration enforced new travel restrictions Monday affecting 19 countries, fully banning travelers from 12 nations and partially restricting seven others. Unlike the chaotic 2017 rollout, the administration provided advance notice and exemptions for permanent residents and current visa holders, making legal challenges more difficult. The ban targets countries cited for terrorism ties, inadequate passport vetting, and high visa overstay rates. More - Washington Post\nMeanwhile, Anti-deportation demonstrations in Los Angeles escalated into their third day with clashes between protesters and law enforcement, including vandalism and car burnings. Trump deployed 2,000 National Guard troops over Governor Newsom\u0026rsquo;s objections, with nearly 50 arrests made and three officers injured. The federal intervention has intensified tensions between state and federal authorities, with Newsom planning to sue the administration. More - Bloomberg\n🇺🇬** Kampala Suicide Bombing**\nTwo suspected Allied Democratic Forces rebels, including a female suicide bomber, were killed in an explosion near a Catholic shrine in Kampala during Martyrs\u0026rsquo; Day preparations. Counterterrorism units intercepted the attackers on a motorcycle before they could reach crowds gathering at the Munyonyo Martyrs\u0026rsquo; Shrine. No civilians were injured in the blast, though the ADF has previously conducted deadly bombings in Uganda after pledging allegiance to ISIS. More - Al Jazeera\n🇨🇴** Colombian Presidential Candidate Shot**\nOpposition presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay was shot three times, including twice in the head, during a Bogotá campaign rally Saturday and remains in intensive care fighting for his life. Police arrested a 15-year-old gunman at the scene carrying a Glock pistol, while authorities offered a $730,000 reward for information about potential accomplices. The attack evokes Colombia\u0026rsquo;s violent political past and threatens\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/09/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-46b9/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"thai--cambodian-border-tensions-trump-travel-ban-expands-as-la-riots-escalate-kampala-suicide-bombing-colombian-presidential-candidate-shot\"\u003eThai / Cambodian Border Tensions, Trump Travel Ban Expands as LA Riots Escalate, Kampala Suicide Bombing, Colombian Presidential Candidate Shot\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFive stories to help you catch up after the weekend.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇹🇭** \u003cstrong\u003e🇰🇭\u003c/strong\u003e Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThailand and Cambodia will return forces to previously agreed positions after a May 28 firefight killed a Cambodian soldier along their disputed border. Thailand has taken control of all 17 border crossings and shortened operating hours at 10, citing threats to sovereignty. Cambodia seeks International Court resolution while Thailand prefers bilateral talks, leaving fundamental disagreements unresolved. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/8/thailand-cambodia-to-return-to-military-positions-after-border-clash\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset, Israel Strikes Beirut Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n☪️ عِيد مُبَارَك\n🇨🇳** 🇺🇸 Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset**\nPresident Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks \u0026ldquo;shortly\u0026rdquo; after a 90-minute call that appeared to break an impasse over rare earth minerals and other disputes that had derailed their Geneva agreement. Trump acknowledged the trade relationship had gotten \u0026ldquo;a little off track\u0026rdquo; but said they were now \u0026ldquo;in very good shape,\u0026rdquo; though he didn\u0026rsquo;t specify whether China agreed to speed export licenses for critical magnets needed by US companies. The leaders exchanged invitations to visit each other\u0026rsquo;s countries, but tensions remain over technology controls and Taiwan, with both sides having just 90 days under their Geneva tariff reduction deal to reach a broader agreement. More - Bloomberg\n🇱🇧** Israel Strikes Beirut**\nIsrael bombed southern Beirut on the eve of Eid Al Adha, targeting what it called an underground Hezbollah drone factory that produces \u0026ldquo;thousands\u0026rdquo; of drones funded by Iran. The strikes occurred despite a six-month-old ceasefire and forced thousands to flee densely populated neighborhoods after evacuation warnings, drawing condemnation from Lebanese leaders who called it a \u0026ldquo;flagrant violation\u0026rdquo; of international accords. Lebanon\u0026rsquo;s government maintains the attacks, along with continued Israeli troop presence in southern Lebanon, constitute ceasefire violations, while Israel cites self-defense provisions in the November agreement. More - BBC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to grapple with severe instability, marked by violence and human rights abuses. Recent reports from Human Rights Watch indicate that Rwanda-backed rebels have executed civilians, underscoring the dire situation in the region [SOURCE - ASIAONE]. Compounding these issues, former President Joseph Kabila has been banned from reporting, raising significant concerns about press freedom in the country [SOURCE - BBC].\nIn the business sector, Glencore-backed Cobalt Holdings has scrapped its planned London listing due to uncertain market conditions, refl\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/06/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-e699/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trump-xi-trade-talks-reset-israel-strikes-beirut\"\u003eTrump-Xi Trade Talks Reset, Israel Strikes Beirut\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e☪️ عِيد مُبَارَك\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇳** \u003cstrong\u003e🇺🇸\u003c/strong\u003e Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePresident Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks \u0026ldquo;shortly\u0026rdquo; after a 90-minute call that appeared to break an impasse over rare earth minerals and other disputes that had derailed their Geneva agreement. Trump acknowledged the trade relationship had gotten \u0026ldquo;a little off track\u0026rdquo; but said they were now \u0026ldquo;in very good shape,\u0026rdquo; though he didn\u0026rsquo;t specify whether China agreed to speed export licenses for critical magnets needed by US companies. The leaders exchanged invitations to visit each other\u0026rsquo;s countries, but tensions remain over technology controls and Taiwan, with both sides having just 90 days under their Geneva tariff reduction deal to reach a broader agreement. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-05/trump-xi-speak-amid-trade-technology-dispute-xinhua-says\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer, US Vetoes Gaza Ceasefire, Putin Threatens Ukraine Retaliation Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n⛏️ US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer\nThe US-China trade deal celebrated in Geneva is fraying over rare earth exports, with Washington accusing Beijing of violating promises to restore mineral flows while China maintains licensing requirements imposed in April. China agreed to suspend sanctions on 45 US companies for 90 days but never explicitly promised to reverse export licensing for seven critical rare earths used in electric motors and hard drives. US officials expected immediate resumption of exports after Geneva talks, but Chinese licensing approvals are coming through slowly as Beijing works through bureaucratic processes, with some companies now obtaining permits but exports remaining below pre-restriction levels. Full Explainer on Bloomberg\n🇵🇸** US Vetoes Gaza Ceasefire**\nThe United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, standing alone against 14 other members who voted in favor as Israeli strikes killed nearly 100 Palestinians in one day. Washington rejected the measure because it didn\u0026rsquo;t directly link the ceasefire to hostage releases, while China accused Israel of crossing \u0026ldquo;every red line\u0026rdquo; of international law with US protection. The veto came as Israel warned starving Palestinians away from US-backed aid sites, declaring them \u0026ldquo;combat zones\u0026rdquo; after opening fire on crowds seeking food, killing over 100 aid seekers since operations began May 27. More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇦** Putin Threatens Ukraine Retaliation**\nPresident Trump said Vladimir Putin warned of retaliation for Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s massive drone strikes on Russian airbases during a 75-minute call that Trump described as \u0026ldquo;good\u0026rdquo; but unlikely to lead to \u0026ldquo;immediate peace.\u0026rdquo; Ukrainian President Zelensky rejected Russian peace terms as an \u0026ldquo;ultimatum,\u0026rdquo; calling demands for territorial surrender and military restrictions unacceptable \u0026ldquo;theater\u0026rdquo; designed to delay Western sanctions. The exchange followed Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s biggest long-range attack of the war, which damaged strategic bombers deep inside Russia, while peace talks in Istanbul produced only agreement on a prisoner exchange involving 500 Ukrainian troops. More - Washington Post\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇸🇬 S\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/05/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-a154/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-china-rare-earth-exports-explainer-us-vetoes-gaza-ceasefire-putin-threatens-ukraine-retaliation\"\u003eUS-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer, US Vetoes Gaza Ceasefire, Putin Threatens Ukraine Retaliation\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e⛏️ US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe US-China trade deal celebrated in Geneva is fraying over rare earth exports, with Washington accusing Beijing of violating promises to restore mineral flows while China maintains licensing requirements imposed in April. China agreed to suspend sanctions on 45 US companies for 90 days but never explicitly promised to reverse export licensing for seven critical rare earths used in electric motors and hard drives. US officials expected immediate resumption of exports after Geneva talks, but Chinese licensing approvals are coming through slowly as Beijing works through bureaucratic processes, with some companies now obtaining permits but exports remaining below pre-restriction levels. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/the-rare-earth-fight-imperiling-us-china-trade-peace-explained\"\u003eFull Explainer on Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency, Pakistan Prison Break Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇰🇷** Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency**\nOpposition candidate Lee Jae-myung decisively won South Korea\u0026rsquo;s presidency exactly six months after predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol\u0026rsquo;s failed martial law attempt triggered massive protests and his impeachment. The victory represents a clear rejection of the ruling People Power Party, which voters blamed for the democratic breakdown, though Lee faces immediate challenges including ongoing Supreme Court charges and navigating a deeply polarized nation. His top priority will be negotiating a trade deal with President Trump to soften US tariff impacts while working to heal divisions in a country where turnout reached 79.4%, the highest since 1997. More - BBC\n🇵🇰** Pakistan Prison Break**\nAn earthquake safety evacuation turned into Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s largest prison break when 216 inmates attacked guards and fled after being moved from their cells during tremors at Karachi\u0026rsquo;s Malir prison. Police recaptured 78 escapees but at least 130 remain at large as authorities conduct raids, with one prisoner killed and three guards wounded in a shootout during recapture efforts. Officials stressed none of the escaped prisoners were convicted fighters, though such mass breakouts are rare in Pakistan since security was tightened following a Taliban attack that freed hundreds from another facility. More - Al Jazeera\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden\nRegional News Summary Switzerland is at a crossroads in its economic relations, with the Swiss economics minister pushing for progress in tariff negotiations with the United States by July. This comes as Indian commerce minister Piyush Goyal leads a business delegation to Europe, aiming to advance free trade agreements with both the US and EU. Meanwhile, Microsoft has announced a significant investment of $400 million in Switzerland, underscoring the country\u0026rsquo;s appeal as a hub for technology and innovation [SOURCE - Swiss Info].\nIn the realm of environmental concerns, a glacier collapse in the Swiss Alps has raised alarms about the impacts of climate change, resulting in the destruction of an Alpine village and leaving one person missing. This incident has not only highlighted the vulnerabilities of the Swiss\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/04/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-e081/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"lee-jae-myung-wins-south-korean-presidency-pakistan-prison-break\"\u003eLee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency, Pakistan Prison Break\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇰🇷** Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOpposition candidate Lee Jae-myung decisively won South Korea\u0026rsquo;s presidency exactly six months after predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol\u0026rsquo;s failed martial law attempt triggered massive protests and his impeachment. The victory represents a clear rejection of the ruling People Power Party, which voters blamed for the democratic breakdown, though Lee faces immediate challenges including ongoing Supreme Court charges and navigating a deeply polarized nation. His top priority will be negotiating a trade deal with President Trump to soften US tariff impacts while working to heal divisions in a country where turnout reached 79.4%, the highest since 1997. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c861yyqxg4do\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Bangladesh Lifts Islamist Ban, Mongolia PM Ousted Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇧🇩** Bangladesh Lifts Islamist Ban**\nBangladesh\u0026rsquo;s Supreme Court restored registration for Jamaat-e-Islami, the country\u0026rsquo;s largest Muslim party, ending a decade-long ban imposed by ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina\u0026rsquo;s government. The decision allows the controversial party, which supported Pakistan during Bangladesh\u0026rsquo;s 1971 independence war, to participate in next year\u0026rsquo;s general election expected by June. The ruling came as the court also overturned a death sentence against key Jamaat leader ATM Azharul Islam for war crimes, while Hasina faces trial in absentia for her deadly crackdown on protesters that killed up to 1,400 people. More - Al Jazeera\n🇲🇳** Mongolia PM Ousted**\nMongolia\u0026rsquo;s Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai was ousted in a confidence vote after failing to secure the required 64 lawmakers\u0026rsquo; support, getting only 44 votes amid weeks of protests sparked by social media posts showing expensive gifts to his son\u0026rsquo;s girlfriend. The Mongolian People\u0026rsquo;s Party will now form a new government alone after ending its coalition, though its slim legislative majority creates a fragile leadership position. The political upheaval compounds economic uncertainty as Mongolia grapples with China\u0026rsquo;s weakening demand for steel-making coal and raw materials, with exports falling 18% year-over-year and the worst first-quarter growth since 2022. More - Bloomberg\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary In recent developments across the Americas, Brazil is facing significant challenges in both its political and economic landscape. Prosecutors have filed a lawsuit against Chinese electric carmaker BYD, alleging \u0026ldquo;slave-like\u0026rdquo; working conditions at its plant, seeking damages of approximately $300 million. This legal action underscores ongoing concerns about labor practices in the region [SOURCE - The Independent].\nIn a troubling health trend, Brazil has reported a rise in smoking rates for the first time since 2007, prompting health experts to call for stricter regulations on tobacco products [[SOURCE - Folha]](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/scienceandhealth/2025/05/brazil-sees-rise-in-\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/03/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-1e75/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"bangladesh-lifts-islamist-ban-mongolia-pm-ousted\"\u003eBangladesh Lifts Islamist Ban, Mongolia PM Ousted\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇧🇩** Bangladesh Lifts Islamist Ban**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBangladesh\u0026rsquo;s Supreme Court restored registration for Jamaat-e-Islami, the country\u0026rsquo;s largest Muslim party, ending a decade-long ban imposed by ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina\u0026rsquo;s government. The decision allows the controversial party, which supported Pakistan during Bangladesh\u0026rsquo;s 1971 independence war, to participate in next year\u0026rsquo;s general election expected by June. The ruling came as the court also overturned a death sentence against key Jamaat leader ATM Azharul Islam for war crimes, while Hasina faces trial in absentia for her deadly crackdown on protesters that killed up to 1,400 people. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/1/bangladesh-top-court-lifts-ban-on-jamaat-e-islami-countrys-largest-muslim-party\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability, Poland Elects Nationalist President Andrew Sheves Good morning,\n🇺🇦** Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability**\nUkraine launched its largest long-range attack of the war, using 117 drones in a \u0026ldquo;Spider\u0026rsquo;s Web\u0026rdquo; operation that struck at least 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases — 34% of Russia\u0026rsquo;s strategic cruise missile carriers — including facilities thousands of miles from Ukraine in Siberia. The SBU security service spent 18 months planning the complex operation, smuggling drones in wooden cabins on trucks and remotely launching them near Russian airbases, causing an estimated $7 billion in damage to strategic aviation assets. The strikes occurred as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators prepared for peace talks in Istanbul, though expectations remain low given the sides\u0026rsquo; fundamental disagreements on ending the conflict. More - BBC\n🇵🇱** Poland Elects Nationalist President**\nTrump-backed conservative historian Karol Nawrocki narrowly defeated centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski 50.9% to 49.1% in Poland\u0026rsquo;s presidential election, dealing a major blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk\u0026rsquo;s efforts to realign the country with EU mainstream policies. The victory marks a rare international win for Trump\u0026rsquo;s MAGA movement and threatens to stymie Tusk\u0026rsquo;s judicial reforms and women\u0026rsquo;s rights agenda through presidential vetoes. Polish markets weakened on the result, with the zloty falling against the euro as investors worry about renewed political gridlock in the EU\u0026rsquo;s fifth-largest economy. More - Bloomberg\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/06/02/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-7cad/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ukraine-destroys-13-of-russias-strategic-strike-capability-poland-elects-nationalist-president\"\u003eUkraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability, Poland Elects Nationalist President\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦** Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUkraine launched its largest long-range attack of the war, using 117 drones in a \u0026ldquo;Spider\u0026rsquo;s Web\u0026rdquo; operation that struck at least 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases — 34% of Russia\u0026rsquo;s strategic cruise missile carriers — including facilities thousands of miles from Ukraine in Siberia. The SBU security service spent 18 months planning the complex operation, smuggling drones in wooden cabins on trucks and remotely launching them near Russian airbases, causing an estimated $7 billion in damage to strategic aviation assets. The strikes occurred as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators prepared for peace talks in Istanbul, though expectations remain low given the sides\u0026rsquo; fundamental disagreements on ending the conflict. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1ld7ppre9vo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs, Hamas Rejects Ceasefire Terms Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🧑‍⚖️ Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs\nA federal appeals court granted Trump a temporary reprieve from a lower court ruling that blocked his sweeping tariffs, but the White House now faces slower, more complex alternatives if the legal challenge ultimately succeeds. The administration could pursue tariffs through Section 232 investigations or other authorities, but these would take months to implement rather than the immediate impact Trump sought through emergency powers. The original ruling would have reduced effective US tariff rates from nearly 27% to below 6%, marking one of Trump\u0026rsquo;s biggest setbacks as he races to deliver results before midterm elections. More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸** Hamas Rejects Ceasefire Terms**\nHamas dismissed a Trump administration ceasefire proposal as ensuring \u0026ldquo;continuation of killing and famine\u0026rdquo; in Gaza, saying it fails to meet key demands including ending the war and withdrawing Israeli troops. While Israel reportedly agreed to the 60-day deal that would exchange 28 hostages for 1,236 Palestinian prisoners, Hamas officials said it lacks commitments for permanent cessation and full aid access. The group will respond by Saturday amid conflicting reports about earlier negotiations. More - Al Jazeera\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of Congo continues to grapple with alarming human rights abuses, particularly in South Kivu, where army-backed militias have been implicated in the mistreatment of civilians. A recent report from Human Rights Watch underscores the urgent need for protective measures for vulnerable populations in the region, while an international jurist organization has also condemned the actions of these armed groups [SOURCE - Human Rights Watch].\nMeanwhile, the DRC is on the verge of securing a minerals deal with the United States, which could have profound implications for its economy [SOURCE - SABC News].\nIn Zimbabwe, the political landscape rem\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/30/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-eeb9/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"judges-halt-reinstate-tariffs-hamas-rejects-ceasefire-terms\"\u003eJudges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs, Hamas Rejects Ceasefire Terms\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e🧑‍⚖️ Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA federal appeals court granted Trump a temporary reprieve from a lower court ruling that blocked his sweeping tariffs, but the White House now faces slower, more complex alternatives if the legal challenge ultimately succeeds. The administration could pursue tariffs through Section 232 investigations or other authorities, but these would take months to implement rather than the immediate impact Trump sought through emergency powers. The original ruling would have reduced effective US tariff rates from nearly 27% to below 6%, marking one of Trump\u0026rsquo;s biggest setbacks as he races to deliver results before midterm elections. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/trump-s-tariff-options-slower-more-complex-if-court-fight-fails\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Trump Tariffs Blocked, Iran Strike \u0026lsquo;On Hold\u0026rsquo; Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n✋** Trump Tariffs Blocked**\nA US trade court ruled President Trump\u0026rsquo;s global tariffs illegal and blocked their implementation, delivering a major blow to a cornerstone of his economic agenda. The three-judge panel sided with Democratic states and small businesses who argued Trump wrongfully invoked emergency powers to justify the levies, marking one of his biggest legal setbacks amid widespread challenges to his executive orders. Global markets have fluctuated wildly since the tariffs were announced April 2, with trillions in market value lost and regained amid delays and potential trade deal announcements. More - Bloomberg\n🇮🇷** Trump Requests Israel ‘Hold Off’ Iran Strike**\nPresident Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to hold off on striking Iranian nuclear facilities, saying it \u0026ldquo;would be inappropriate right now because we\u0026rsquo;re very close to a solution\u0026rdquo; as US-Iran nuclear talks continue in Oman and Italy. Iranian sources indicate Tehran may pause uranium enrichment for a year if Washington releases frozen funds and recognizes Iran\u0026rsquo;s right to civilian nuclear programs under a potential political deal. The key sticking point remains Iran\u0026rsquo;s refusal to eliminate enrichment capabilities, which it calls an infringement on sovereignty, while the US demands firm commitments to halt activities it views as potential weapons pathways. More - Al Jazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, the economy demonstrated resilience with a growth rate of 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025, prompting the government to maintain its forecast of 0-2% growth through 2025. Notably, China has become Singapore\u0026rsquo;s third-largest services trade partner, with calls for Asian nations to resist tariff retaliation amidst ongoing trade tensions [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nPolitical dynamics are also shifting in Singapore, where President Tharman has sworn in a new Cabinet, interpreting the recent General Election results as a strong signal of national resolve and unity [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nIn the realm of crime, Singapore has reported a troubling rise in online child exploitati\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/29/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-987b/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trump-tariffs-blocked-iran-strike-on-hold\"\u003eTrump Tariffs Blocked, Iran Strike \u0026lsquo;On Hold\u0026rsquo;\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e✋** Trump Tariffs Blocked**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA US trade court ruled President Trump\u0026rsquo;s global tariffs illegal and blocked their implementation, delivering a major blow to a cornerstone of his economic agenda. The three-judge panel sided with Democratic states and small businesses who argued Trump wrongfully invoked emergency powers to justify the levies, marking one of his biggest legal setbacks amid widespread challenges to his executive orders. Global markets have fluctuated wildly since the tariffs were announced April 2, with trillions in market value lost and regained amid delays and potential trade deal announcements. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-28/trump-s-global-tariffs-blocked-by-us-trade-court\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Gaza Aid Distribution Chaos and Ukraine Drone War Escalates Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇵🇸** Gaza Aid Distribution Chaos**\nThousands of Palestinians stormed a US-Israeli backed aid distribution center in Rafah operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, overwhelming security and forcing staff to retreat as crowds climbed fences to seize food parcels. Israeli troops fired warning shots during the chaotic scene, highlighting the desperation of Gaza\u0026rsquo;s 2.1 million residents facing potential famine after an 11-week blockade. The UN and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the controversial GHF system, calling it a weaponization of humanitarian aid that contradicts core principles of neutrality and independence. More - BBC\n🇺🇦** Ukraine Drone War Escalates**\nRussia and Ukraine exchanged massive drone barrages overnight with Moscow deploying 60 drones and claiming to have shot down 99 Ukrainian ones, even as the Kremlin said it was finalizing a peace proposal to end the war. Russian forces captured four villages in Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Sumy region, marking their first territorial gains in that border area and stretching Ukrainian defenses across multiple fronts. Moscow blamed Ukraine and European allies for deliberately undermining peace talks through escalated strikes using Western weapons, while direct negotiations that resumed May 16 have yet to produce a ceasefire. More - Al Jazeera\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary European carriers have canceled flights to occupied territories amid rising tensions in the region, disrupting travel plans for many. This comes as security concerns were raised at Zurich airport, where passengers evaded boarding pass checks, prompting questions about airport safety protocols [SOURCE - ABNA24] [SOURCE - SWISSINFO].\nIn the financial sector, the Swiss finance ministry has decided to appeal a court ruling regarding Credit Suisse bonuses, seeking a review from the Federal Supreme Court. This legal maneuver comes against a backdrop of tariff concerns that have weakened the Swiss market, raising alarms about the broader economic i\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/28/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-2523/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"gaza-aid-distribution-chaos-and-ukraine-drone-war-escalates\"\u003eGaza Aid Distribution Chaos and Ukraine Drone War Escalates\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸** Gaza Aid Distribution Chaos**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThousands of Palestinians stormed a US-Israeli backed aid distribution center in Rafah operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, overwhelming security and forcing staff to retreat as crowds climbed fences to seize food parcels. Israeli troops fired warning shots during the chaotic scene, highlighting the desperation of Gaza\u0026rsquo;s 2.1 million residents facing potential famine after an 11-week blockade. The UN and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the controversial GHF system, calling it a weaponization of humanitarian aid that contradicts core principles of neutrality and independence. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gep705527o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Toxic Ship Sinks off India, Germany Lifts Deep Strike Restrictions on Ukraine, EU Pledges Fast-Track Trade Talks Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇮🇳** Toxic Ship Sinks off Kerala Coast**\nA Liberian-flagged cargo vessel carrying hazardous chemicals and 451 tonnes of oil capsized off Kerala\u0026rsquo;s coast near Kochi on Sunday. All 24 crew members were rescued, but authorities issued coastal alerts as oil slicks and drifting containers threaten the biodiverse shoreline and tourism industry. The Indian Coast Guard deployed pollution control equipment while officials warned residents against touching containers or oil that wash ashore. [More - BBC]\n🇺🇦** Germany Lifts Deep Strike Restrictions on Ukraine**\nGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that Ukraine now has permission to use Western-supplied weapons for deep strikes inside Russia, removing all previous range limitations from allied nations. The announcement follows Russia\u0026rsquo;s largest drone barrage since the invasion began, as European leaders intensify pressure on the Kremlin amid stalled ceasefire efforts. President Trump criticized both Putin\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;crazy\u0026rdquo; attacks and Zelensky\u0026rsquo;s rhetoric while threatening new sanctions on Russia. [More - Bloomberg]\n🇪🇺** EU Pledges Fast-Track Trade Talks**\nThe European Union pledged to fast-track trade negotiations with the U.S. after President Trump delayed his threatened 50% tariffs on EU goods until July 9. Trump\u0026rsquo;s Friday ultimatum sent markets plummeting before he agreed to extend talks following a call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The EU has prepared $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products if negotiations fail. [More - Washington Post]\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s finance chief is signaling a potential shift in the country\u0026rsquo;s economic approach as President Lula continues to dominate the political landscape. This comes at a time when Brazil is strengthening its defense ties with the United States, marked by a visit from U.S. Admiral Holsey, the first of its kind. The collaboration is crucial as BRICS democracies, including Brazil, India, and South Africa, find their global influence wa\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/27/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-ddf3/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"toxic-ship-sinks-off-india-germany-lifts-deep-strike-restrictions-on-ukraine-eu-pledges-fast-track-trade-talks\"\u003eToxic Ship Sinks off India, Germany Lifts Deep Strike Restrictions on Ukraine, EU Pledges Fast-Track Trade Talks\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇳** Toxic Ship Sinks off Kerala Coast**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA Liberian-flagged cargo vessel carrying hazardous chemicals and 451 tonnes of oil capsized off Kerala\u0026rsquo;s coast near Kochi on Sunday. All 24 crew members were rescued, but authorities issued coastal alerts as oil slicks and drifting containers threaten the biodiverse shoreline and tourism industry. The Indian Coast Guard deployed pollution control equipment while officials warned residents against touching containers or oil that wash ashore. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdd2mr388ypo\"\u003e[More - BBC]\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"🇺🇸 Memorial Day Ratings Andrew Sheves Good morning,\n🇺🇸 Veterans, thank you for your service.\nNo headlines today, just the ratings.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/26/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-1dad/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"-memorial-day-ratings\"\u003e🇺🇸 Memorial Day Ratings\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸 Veterans, thank you for your service.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo headlines today, just the ratings.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"subscribe-to-keep-reading\"\u003eSubscribe to keep reading\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlready a subscriber?\u003ca href=\"/login?postSlug=monday-sitrep-global-ratings-1dad\"\u003eSign in.\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"/\"\u003eNot now\u003c/a\u003e\nDecis SITREPS\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHome\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePosts\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePrivacy policy\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTerms of use\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"India Kills Insurgent Leader, US Sanctions Sudan Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇳** India Kills Insurgent Leader**\nIndian security forces killed the leader of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) group. Nambala Keshava Rao and 26 other rebels were killed in Chhattisgarh state during a gunfight following intelligence tip-offs. This marks the first time in three decades that such a senior CPI (Maoist) commander has been eliminated by government forces, according to Home Minister Amit Shah. The operation is part of India\u0026rsquo;s massive \u0026ldquo;Black Forest\u0026rdquo; military campaign launched last month, aimed at ending the decades-long insurgency by March 2026. More - BBC\n(Note - the Communist Party of India (Maoist) is an insurgency group, distinct from the political Communist Party of India, meaning this was an attack on a militant, not a political leader.)\n🇸🇩** US Sanctions Sudan**\nThe United States will impose sanctions on Sudan around June 6 after determining the country\u0026rsquo;s military used chemical weapons against paramilitary forces during the ongoing civil war. The sanctions include restrictions on US exports and blocking access to government credit lines, marking escalation in Washington\u0026rsquo;s response to the conflict that has killed thousands and displaced 13 million people since April 2023. The move follows previous US sanctions on both sides of the conflict, including genocide accusations against the Rapid Support Forces. More - Al Jazeera\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe\nRegional News Summary In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a former Prime Minister has been sentenced to hard labor on corruption charges, marking a significant step in the country’s long battle against corruption, which has deeply affected its political and economic landscape. This ruling comes at a time when the nation faces acute hunger, with 300 million people at risk of starvation globally, exacerbated by climate change, conflict, and economic instability. Rising sea levels further threaten the region, potentially leading to catastrophic migration patterns that complicate the existing crises [SOURCE - BBC].\nMeanwhile, Algeria is set to receive a substantial financial boost from the Islamic Development Bank, which has pledged $3 billion over the next three years. This funding is expected to support various development projects in the country, enhancing its economic sta\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/23/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-3706/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"india-kills-insurgent-leader-us-sanctions-sudan\"\u003eIndia Kills Insurgent Leader, US Sanctions Sudan\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇳** India Kills Insurgent Leader**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndian security forces killed the leader of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) group. Nambala Keshava Rao and 26 other rebels were killed in Chhattisgarh state during a gunfight following intelligence tip-offs. This marks the first time in three decades that such a senior CPI (Maoist) commander has been eliminated by government forces, according to Home Minister Amit Shah. The operation is part of India\u0026rsquo;s massive \u0026ldquo;Black Forest\u0026rdquo; military campaign launched last month, aimed at ending the decades-long insurgency by March 2026. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0k37x40j08o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Israeli Embassy Staff Killed in DC, Bond Market Revolt, IDF Fires on Diplomats in West Bank, Former Ukrainian Official Murdered in Spain Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇱** Israeli Embassy Staff Killed in DC**\nTwo Israeli embassy staff were shot dead outside Washington\u0026rsquo;s Jewish museum on Wednesday night by a gunman who chanted \u0026ldquo;free Palestine\u0026rdquo; while in custody. The victims, Sarah Lynn Milgrim and Yaron Lischinsky, were leaving a diplomatic reception when 30-year-old Elias Rodriguez of Chicago opened fire at close range. The FBI is investigating as terrorism and hate crime, with Israel stepping up embassy security worldwide. More - Financial Times\n🇺🇸 Bond Market Revolt\nBond investors are pushing back against Trump\u0026rsquo;s tax-cut plans, driving 30-year Treasury yields to 5.1% near two-decade highs amid concerns over ballooning deficits. The selloff follows a weak 20-year bond auction and Moody\u0026rsquo;s recent US credit downgrade, with fiscal hawks in Congress citing market turmoil as evidence against the tax cuts. Bond vigilantes are imposing higher borrowing costs to force fiscal discipline, as US debt reaches 100% of GDP with interest payments exceeding defense spending. More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸** IDF Fires on Diplomats in West Bank**\nIsraeli forces fired near an international diplomatic delegation visiting the Jenin refugee camp on Wednesday, with no injuries reported. The Israeli military claimed the group deviated from an approved route, while diplomats from EU, Arab and Asian nations were assessing humanitarian conditions during Israel\u0026rsquo;s ongoing four-month military operation. Multiple countries have condemned the incident, summoning Israeli ambassadors and demanding investigations into what Palestinian authorities called a \u0026ldquo;heinous crime.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇦** Former Ukrainian Official Murdered in Spain**\nFormer Ukrainian deputy chief Andriy Portnov was shot dead outside a Madrid school after dropping off his children, with the gunman fleeing into nearby woods. Portnov, 51, had served under ousted pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych and was sanctioned by the US in 2021 for allegedly undermining judicial reforms. No arrests have been made and the motive remains unclear, though Spain has seen recent killings linked to both Russian hitmen and Ukrainian intelligence operations. More - BBC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Sin\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/22/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-3822/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israeli-embassy-staff-killed-in-dc-bond-market-revolt-idf-fires-on-diplomats-in-west-bank-former-ukrainian-official-murdered-in-spain\"\u003eIsraeli Embassy Staff Killed in DC, Bond Market Revolt, IDF Fires on Diplomats in West Bank, Former Ukrainian Official Murdered in Spain\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇱** Israeli Embassy Staff Killed in DC**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo Israeli embassy staff were shot dead outside Washington\u0026rsquo;s Jewish museum on Wednesday night by a gunman who chanted \u0026ldquo;free Palestine\u0026rdquo; while in custody. The victims, Sarah Lynn Milgrim and Yaron Lischinsky, were leaving a diplomatic reception when 30-year-old Elias Rodriguez of Chicago opened fire at close range. The FBI is investigating as terrorism and hate crime, with Israel stepping up embassy security worldwide. \u003ca href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/01b84b63-ecea-41b5-94e1-990e19ecc33a\"\u003eMore - Financial Times\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"UK and EU Review Relations with Israel, US Warns of Israeli Plan to Strike Iran, Mexico City Mayor’s Aides Killed Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇱** UK and EU Review Relations with Israel Over Gaza Siege**\nThe UK government suspended new free trade negotiations with Israel over its Gaza military conduct while imposing additional sanctions on illegal Israeli settler outposts in the West Bank. Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced the move as the EU also voted to review its trade agreement with Israel due to the \u0026ldquo;catastrophic\u0026rdquo; situation in Gaza. Israel quickly denounced the UK\u0026rsquo;s decision, claiming negotiations weren\u0026rsquo;t advancing anyway under the current government. More - Al Jazeera\n🇮🇷** US Warns of Israeli Plan to Strike Iran**\nNew US intelligence indicates Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities despite ongoing Trump administration diplomatic efforts with Tehran. Military preparations include movement of air munitions and completion of an air exercise, though Israeli leaders haven\u0026rsquo;t made a final decision. The potential strike would risk broader regional conflict and strain US-Israel relations, with Israel seeing opportunity due to Iran\u0026rsquo;s currently weakened military position following previous Israeli attacks on missile facilities and air defenses. More - CNN\n🇲🇽 Mexico City Mayor’s Aides Killed\nTwo close aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada were executed in a targeted attack Tuesday, bringing cartel-style violence to a capital normally insulated from Mexico\u0026rsquo;s bloodiest crime. The professional assassinations pressure President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has abandoned her predecessor\u0026rsquo;s passive \u0026ldquo;hugs, not bullets\u0026rdquo; approach to organized crime while highlighting record drug seizures and lab takedowns. Despite Sheinbaum\u0026rsquo;s security efforts, Mexico has recorded over 16,000 homicides in her first seven months in office. More - Bloomberg\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEurope News Summary Switzerland stands to gain from the recent easing of tariffs between the US and China, which has sparked an export surge. The country\u0026rsquo;s\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/21/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-257e/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"uk-and-eu-review-relations-with-israel-us-warns-of-israeli-plan-to-strike-iran-mexico-city-mayors-aides-killed\"\u003eUK and EU Review Relations with Israel, US Warns of Israeli Plan to Strike Iran, Mexico City Mayor’s Aides Killed\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇱** UK and EU Review Relations with Israel Over Gaza Siege**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe UK government suspended new free trade negotiations with Israel over its Gaza military conduct while imposing additional sanctions on illegal Israeli settler outposts in the West Bank. Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced the move as the EU also voted to review its trade agreement with Israel due to the \u0026ldquo;catastrophic\u0026rdquo; situation in Gaza. Israel quickly denounced the UK\u0026rsquo;s decision, claiming negotiations weren\u0026rsquo;t advancing anyway under the current government. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/20/uk-government-suspends-free-trade-talks-with-israel-over-gaza-war\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"UK-EU Reset Deal, Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Talks, Israel’s Gaza Offensive Continues Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🤝** UK-EU Reset Deal**\nUK and EU agree to major reset deal covering fishing, trade, and defense, marking the largest reboot since Brexit. European fishing boats gain 12-year access to British waters in exchange for reduced trade barriers and paperwork. Prime Minister Starmer emphasized moving beyond \u0026ldquo;stale old debates\u0026rdquo; while opposition parties remain divided on the agreement\u0026rsquo;s merits. More - BBC\n🇺🇦** Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Talks**\nUS President Trump announced Russia and Ukraine \u0026ldquo;will immediately start negotiations\u0026rdquo; toward ending the war following a 2-hour call with Putin. Putin expressed readiness to create a memorandum on peace principles, though emphasized eliminating \u0026ldquo;root causes\u0026rdquo; with no set timeline. Zelenskyy indicated Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s willingness to negotiate in Turkey, Switzerland or the Vatican, while European leaders support Pope Leo XIV\u0026rsquo;s offer to host talks. More - Al Jazeera\n🇵🇸** Israel’s Gaza Offensive Continues**\nIsrael’s offensive in Gaza continues as international pressure increases. From [AlJazeera’s livestream](http://The death toll from Israeli attacks on Gaza on Monday rises to 84 as the Israeli military warns residents of the southern city of Khan Younis to evacuate immediately ahead of an “unprecedented attack”. The leaders of Canada, France and the United Kingdom threaten sanctions against Israel if it does not end its renewed military offensive in Gaza and lift restrictions on aid. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has announced plans to take control of the whole of Gaza, slams the threat and promises to continue the war until “total victory” is achieved. Israel allows five aid trucks into Gaza, a move the United Nations says constitutes a “drop in the ocean”, as 22 countries demand the unfettered entry of aid into the enclave. Yemen’s Houthis announce a “maritime blockade” on Israel’s Haifa port, warning all companies with ships in the port that they have been “included in the list of targets”. The UN says nearly 100,000 Palestinians have been displaced in Gaza in the last four days as Israel expands its ground invasion of the Strip.):\nThe death toll from Israeli attacks on Gaza on Monday rises to 84 as the Israeli military warns residents of the southern city of Khan Younis to evacuate immediately ahead of an “unprecedented attack”.\nThe leaders of Canada, France and the United Kingdom threaten sanctions against Israel if it does not end its renewed military offensive in Gaza and lift restrictions on aid.\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has announced plans to take control of the whole of Gaza, slams the threat and promises to continue the war until “total victory” is achieved.\nIsrael allows five aid truc\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/20/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-627c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"uk-eu-reset-deal-ukraine-russia-ceasefire-talks-israels-gaza-offensive-continues\"\u003eUK-EU Reset Deal, Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Talks, Israel’s Gaza Offensive Continues\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🤝** UK-EU Reset Deal**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUK and EU agree to major reset deal covering fishing, trade, and defense, marking the largest reboot since Brexit. European fishing boats gain 12-year access to British waters in exchange for reduced trade barriers and paperwork. Prime Minister Starmer emphasized moving beyond \u0026ldquo;stale old debates\u0026rdquo; while opposition parties remain divided on the agreement\u0026rsquo;s merits. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce9v28r7vlxo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Romanian, Portuguese, and Polish Elections, US Credit Downgrade, Gaza Assault Intensifies Andrew Sheves Good morning,\n🗳️ Romania, Portugal, and Poland went to the polls this weekend:\n🇷🇴 Liberal and pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan won Romania’s presidential race. [More - BBC]\n🇵🇹 The incumbent right-of-centre Democratic Alliance party won in Portugal’s elections, but failed to secure a majority. [More - BBC]\n🇵🇱 Warsaw\u0026rsquo;s liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly won Sunday’s vote, but a run-off will be required to determine Poland’s next president [More - BBC]\n🔻** US Credit Downgraded**\nMoody\u0026rsquo;s Ratings downgraded US government credit from Aaa to Aa1, citing ballooning budget deficits expected to reach 9% of GDP by 2035. Markets responded with Treasury yields rising and dollar weakening, as investors worry about debt sustainability amid planned tax cuts and trade policy uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns, calling credit agencies \u0026ldquo;lagging indicators.\u0026rdquo; More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸** Israel Expands Gaza Offensive**\nIsrael launched \u0026ldquo;extensive\u0026rdquo; ground operations across Gaza while announcing it will allow \u0026ldquo;basic\u0026rdquo; food aid after a two-month blockade that threatened famine. The military confirmed plans to divide the territory and relocate civilians, as airstrikes killed approximately 100 Palestinians on Sunday. Ceasefire negotiations continue in Qatar despite the escalation, with Hamas seeking permanent war end while Israel demands disarmament. More - Washington Post\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/19/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-6448/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"romanian-portuguese-and-polish-elections-us-credit-downgrade-gaza-assault-intensifies\"\u003eRomanian, Portuguese, and Polish Elections, US Credit Downgrade, Gaza Assault Intensifies\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e🗳️ Romania, Portugal, and Poland went to the polls this weekend:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇷🇴 Liberal and pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan won Romania’s presidential race. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crk2xxzxkzxo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇹 The incumbent right-of-centre Democratic Alliance party won in Portugal’s elections, but failed to secure a majority. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3e5v5lpddyo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇱 Warsaw\u0026rsquo;s liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly won Sunday’s vote, but a run-off will be required to determine Poland’s next president [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgegn1ggxn8o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults, Ukraine Peace Talks Sputter Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇵🇸** US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults**\nUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed concern over Gaza\u0026rsquo;s humanitarian situation as Israeli airstrikes killed 114 Palestinians on Thursday. The strikes hit homes and tents sheltering displaced families in Khan Younis, with Nasser hospital reporting 56 deaths including women and children. Gaza has been under complete Israeli blockade of all food and humanitarian supplies for 10 weeks, with the UN warning half a million people face starvation. More - BBC\n🇺🇦** Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Sputter**\nProspects for a Ukraine ceasefire dimmed after Putin sent low-level officials to Turkey negotiations while Zelenskiy dispatched his defense minister to lead Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s delegation. Trump stated \u0026ldquo;nothing\u0026rsquo;s going to happen until Putin and I get together,\u0026rdquo; suggesting the Russian leader\u0026rsquo;s absence is deliberate stalling. European diplomats are now pushing for \u0026ldquo;bone-crushing\u0026rdquo; sanctions on Russia, with Senator Lindsey Graham\u0026rsquo;s bill proposing a 500% tariff on countries buying Russian energy products to force Putin to meaningful negotiations. More - Bloomberg\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe\nRegional News Summary Violence and instability have escalated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where militias have seized control of key areas, leading to a grim reality for residents as corpses line the streets of a major city. This surge in violence has raised alarms about the deteriorating security situation in the region, prompting international concern about the humanitarian implications [SOURCE - Malay Mail].\nAmidst this turmoil, Twangiza Mining has halted operations due to a tax dispute with the rebel administration, further exacerbating economic uncertainty in the region. The cessation of mining activities raises questions about the long-term economic stability of the area, which heavily relies on such industries [SOURCE - Yahoo Finance].\nIn a related cont\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/16/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-0801/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-raises-concerns-as-israel-intensifies-gaza-assaults-ukraine-peace-talks-sputter\"\u003eUS Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults, Ukraine Peace Talks Sputter\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸** US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed concern over Gaza\u0026rsquo;s humanitarian situation as Israeli airstrikes killed 114 Palestinians on Thursday. The strikes hit homes and tents sheltering displaced families in Khan Younis, with Nasser hospital reporting 56 deaths including women and children. Gaza has been under complete Israeli blockade of all food and humanitarian supplies for 10 weeks, with the UN warning half a million people face starvation. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gewwg1wlvo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Zelensky Criticizes ‘Sham’ Talks, Trump Suggests Iran Nuclear Deal Close Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇦** Zelensky Criticizes ‘Sham’ Talks**\nRussia sent only low-level representatives to potential peace talks in Istanbul, dashing hopes for a high-profile diplomatic breakthrough. Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized Moscow\u0026rsquo;s delegation as \u0026ldquo;more like a sham level\u0026rdquo; while Western allies urged Ukraine to participate despite the setback. Russia\u0026rsquo;s negotiating team mirrors its 2022 delegation and appears to be maintaining its hard-line demands. More - Washington Post\n🇮🇷** Trump Suggests Iran Nuclear Deal Close**\nTrump suggested the US is approaching a potential agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program, citing recent negotiations in Oman. Iranian leadership indicated willingness to limit uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, though Foreign Minister Araghchi called for \u0026ldquo;more realistic\u0026rdquo; American approaches. Oil prices dropped 3.2% following these diplomatic developments, reflecting market optimism about reduced regional tensions. More - Bloomberg\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nAsia News Summary Singapore has taken a proactive step in enhancing its energy security by establishing a government-owned company dedicated to centralizing gas procurement. This initiative aims to bolster competitiveness in the energy sector, reflecting the city-state\u0026rsquo;s commitment to sustainable energy practices [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily]. Concurrently, DBS Bank has revised its 2025 profit guidance upwards after reporting better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter, driven by increased net interest income and reduced allowances [SOURCE - Manila Times].\nIn Indonesia, billionaire Chandra Asri is expanding its footprint in Singapore through a strategic partnership with Chevron Phillips, signaling a robust cross-border investment climate [SOURCE - Forbes]. T\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/15/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-1a04/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"zelensky-criticizes-sham-talks-trump-suggests-iran-nuclear-deal-close\"\u003eZelensky Criticizes ‘Sham’ Talks, Trump Suggests Iran Nuclear Deal Close\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦** Zelensky Criticizes ‘Sham’ Talks**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia sent only low-level representatives to potential peace talks in Istanbul, dashing hopes for a high-profile diplomatic breakthrough. Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized Moscow\u0026rsquo;s delegation as \u0026ldquo;more like a sham level\u0026rdquo; while Western allies urged Ukraine to participate despite the setback. Russia\u0026rsquo;s negotiating team mirrors its 2022 delegation and appears to be maintaining its hard-line demands. \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/15/ukraine-russia-direct-talks-istanbul/\"\u003eMore - Washington Post\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Trump Announces Deals, Lifts Syrian Sanctions on KSA Trip, Mali Dissolves Political Parties Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇸🇦 **Trump Announces KSA Deals, Lifts Syrian Sanctions **\nTrump\u0026rsquo;s Saudi Arabia visit yielded contested investment claims—ranging from $300 billion to $1 trillion—including $142 billion in defense sales and tech sector investments from Google and Oracle. During the Riyadh summit, he also announced lifting sanctions on post-Assad Syria, crediting discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Erdogan while planning to meet new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa despite concerns about his extremist past. More - Bloomberg\n🇲🇱** Mali Dissolves Political Parties**\nMali\u0026rsquo;s military leader Assimi Goita has dissolved all political parties following recent pro-democracy protests, dramatically escalating a crackdown that reportedly includes the forced disappearance of opposition figures. Human rights groups report that several politicians, including CODEM secretary-general Abba Alhassane and Yelema party leader El Bachir Thiam, were seized by unidentified masked gunmen as the junta, which seized power in 2020-2021, moves to extend Goita\u0026rsquo;s rule until 2030 despite earlier promises of elections. More - Al Jazeera\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary In Geneva, high-stakes trade talks between the United States and China have captured global attention. Chinese officials, led by He Lifeng, engaged in discussions aimed at resolving ongoing tariff disputes. The Swiss President expressed hope that these negotiations would be guided by a spirit of cooperation, as both nations seek to avert an escalating trade war [SOURCE - ABC News]. Following extensive discussions, reports emerged of substantial progress, with U.S. officials announcing a \u0026ldquo;total reset\u0026rdquo; in trade relations [SOURCE - Economic Times].\nMeanwhile, European leaders are intensifying their\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/14/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-678c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trump-announces-deals-lifts-syrian-sanctions-on-ksa-trip-mali-dissolves-political-parties\"\u003eTrump Announces Deals, Lifts Syrian Sanctions on KSA Trip, Mali Dissolves Political Parties\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇸🇦 **Trump Announces KSA Deals, Lifts Syrian Sanctions **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTrump\u0026rsquo;s Saudi Arabia visit yielded contested investment claims—ranging from $300 billion to $1 trillion—including $142 billion in defense sales and tech sector investments from Google and Oracle. During the Riyadh summit, he also announced lifting sanctions on post-Assad Syria, crediting discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Erdogan while planning to meet new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa despite concerns about his extremist past. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/us-says-it-secured-600-billion-in-investments-from-saudi-arabia\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Violence in Tripoli, Ukraine-Russia Summit Uncertainty Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇱🇾** Violence in Tripoli After Militia Leader’s Death**\nHeavy fighting erupted in Libya\u0026rsquo;s capital after militia leader Abdel Ghani al-Kikli was killed, prompting UN calls for de-escalation. At least six people were injured as rival armed groups exchanged gunfire across multiple neighborhoods, forcing authorities to impose lockdowns and school closures. Residents demand accountability in a city plagued by militia conflicts since Gaddafi\u0026rsquo;s 2011 overthrow. More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇦** Ukraine-Russia Summit Uncertainty**\nZelensky committed to meeting Putin \u0026ldquo;personally\u0026rdquo; in Istanbul Thursday following Trump\u0026rsquo;s demand for immediate talks. European leaders insist on a 30-day ceasefire before negotiations, threatening \u0026ldquo;massive sanctions\u0026rdquo; on Russia\u0026rsquo;s energy and banking sectors if Putin refuses. Putin proposed talks but didn\u0026rsquo;t directly address the ceasefire demand, suggesting only that discussions could lead to \u0026ldquo;a new truce\u0026rdquo; while expressing concerns about Ukraine rearming during any pause. More - BBC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary In recent developments across the Americas, Brazil has made significant strides in both its energy and agricultural sectors. The country has emerged as the fourth-largest solar market globally, boasting 18.9 GW of solar capacity in 2024, driven by a growing demand for renewable energy. Additionally, Brazil\u0026rsquo;s soybean exports have increased by 3.9%, largely due to demand from China. In response to economic pressures, the Brazilian government is also advocating for land reform to support small farmers [SOURCE - Rio Times].\nOn the energy front, Brazil has achieved a record production of 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from its pre-salt fields, marking a significant milestone for its energy sector. Furthermore, Brazil and Russia are set to collaborate on joint uranium mining and fertilizer production, which could enhance their economic ties [SOURCE - Rio Times].\nIn the realm of international relations, Brazilian President Lula da Silva is pr\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/13/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-21e3/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"violence-in-tripoli-ukraine-russia-summit-uncertainty\"\u003eViolence in Tripoli, Ukraine-Russia Summit Uncertainty\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇱🇾** Violence in Tripoli After Militia Leader’s Death**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHeavy fighting erupted in Libya\u0026rsquo;s capital after militia leader Abdel Ghani al-Kikli was killed, prompting UN calls for de-escalation. At least six people were injured as rival armed groups exchanged gunfire across multiple neighborhoods, forcing authorities to impose lockdowns and school closures. Residents demand accountability in a city plagued by militia conflicts since Gaddafi\u0026rsquo;s 2011 overthrow. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/12/un-urges-calm-as-heavy-fire-clashes-erupt-in-libyas-tripoli\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"India - Pakistan Ceasefire, PKK Disarms, US \u0026amp; China Cut Tariffs Andrew Sheves Good morning\n🇮🇳** 🇵🇰 India - Pakistan Ceasefire Holds, Talks Planned**\nIndia and Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s US-brokered ceasefire appears to be holding after four days of intense cross-border shelling and aerial attacks that threatened to escalate into full-scale war. India has reopened 32 civilian airports previously closed due to safety concerns, while both nuclear-armed nations claim military victory despite dozens of casualties. Top military officials from both sides are meeting Monday to discuss ceasefire details, with both countries maintaining vigilance and warning against violations. More - BBC\n🇹🇷** PKK Lays Down Arms**\nThe Kurdistan Workers\u0026rsquo; Party (PKK) announced plans to disband and disarm, potentially ending four decades of conflict with Turkiye that has claimed tens of thousands of lives. The decision follows a February call by jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to lay down arms and comes amid broader regional changes. Turkiye\u0026rsquo;s ruling AK Party called it a potential \u0026ldquo;turning point\u0026rdquo; if all PKK branches and affiliates are terminated, though questions remain about implementation and the future of PKK fighters. More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇸** 🇨🇳 US \u0026amp; China Cut Tariffs**\nUS and China have agreed to temporarily slash tariffs for 90 days, reducing US duties from 145% to 30% and Chinese duties from 125% to 10%. The three-month period gives both sides time to negotiate a broader agreement while calming tensions between the world\u0026rsquo;s largest economies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the truce could be extended with \u0026ldquo;good faith effort\u0026rdquo; and constructive dialogue. More - Bloomberg\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/12/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-6fba/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"india---pakistan-ceasefire-pkk-disarms-us--china-cut-tariffs\"\u003eIndia - Pakistan Ceasefire, PKK Disarms, US \u0026amp; China Cut Tariffs\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇳** \u003cstrong\u003e🇵🇰\u003c/strong\u003e India - Pakistan Ceasefire Holds, Talks Planned**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndia and Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s US-brokered ceasefire appears to be holding after four days of intense cross-border shelling and aerial attacks that threatened to escalate into full-scale war. India has reopened 32 civilian airports previously closed due to safety concerns, while both nuclear-armed nations claim military victory despite dozens of casualties. Top military officials from both sides are meeting Monday to discuss ceasefire details, with both countries maintaining vigilance and warning against violations. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm26760pj13o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"India / Pakistan fighting continues, UK trade deal double, and US-China talks this weekend. Plus weekend diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n(Headlines from me today, not the AI.)\n🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Fighting between India and Pakistan continues with reports of multiple strikes into both countries, including missile and drone strikes. The situation remains precarious and fast-moving with potential for escalation. Al Jazeera has a live tracker here\nGraphic: Al Jazeera\n🇬🇧 The UK was in a deal-making mood, striking trade deals with India [BBC] and the USA [BBC]. Notably, this was the first deal with President Trump following the imposition of tariffs last month, although the UK has been pursuing a trade deal with the US since Brexit.\n🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trade talks between the US and China begin this weekend in Switzerland, although no one expects any substantial movement. President Trump did tease markets, telling investors to ‘buy stocks now’ which many have interpreted as a signal that he plans to ease tariffs on China. A ‘goodwill’ gesture prior to talks would allow Trump to ease pressure on the US without seeming to be pulling back from tariffs, although there is the possibility that this was also a prerequisite from Beijing for starting direct meetings. [More - Bloomberg]\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe\nRegional News Summary The DRC is currently at the center of regional peace efforts, with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo meeting Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa to discuss the ongoing crisis. This comes as regional blocs prepare to convene to address the situation, highlighting the urgency for diplomatic solutions in a nation grappling with conflict and instability [[SOURCE - The Washington Post]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/05/06/congo-rwanda-peace-trump-rubio/?utm_source=news.\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/09/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-3a4d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"india--pakistan-fighting-continues-uk-trade-deal-double-and-us-china-talks-this-weekend-plus-weekend-diversions\"\u003eIndia / Pakistan fighting continues, UK trade deal double, and US-China talks this weekend. Plus weekend diversions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e(Headlines from me today, not the AI.)\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Fighting between India and Pakistan continues with reports of multiple strikes into both countries, including missile and drone strikes. The situation remains precarious and fast-moving with potential for escalation. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/5/9/live-india-pakistan-tensions-surge-as-both-sides-trade-attack-claims\"\u003eAl Jazeera has a live tracker here\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGraphic: Al Jazeera\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇬🇧 The UK was in a deal-making mood, striking trade deals with \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y6y90e5vzo\"\u003eIndia [BBC]\u003c/a\u003e and the \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp92r2kvk74o\"\u003eUSA [BBC]\u003c/a\u003e. Notably, this was the first deal with President Trump following the imposition of tariffs last month, although the UK has been pursuing a trade deal with the US since Brexit.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇳** 🇵🇰 India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate**\nIndia and Pakistan traded missile strikes and drone attacks following India\u0026rsquo;s retaliation on Wednesday for the Kashmir militant. Pakistan reports 31 deaths from Indian strikes while India claims 16 civilian casualties from Pakistani shelling, with both sides claiming that they are neutralizing enemy weapons, but the situation is fluid and claims are hard to verify. This BBC Live Tracker is Monitoring the Situation\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary In a significant political development, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s ruling People\u0026rsquo;s Action Party (PAP) secured a decisive victory in the 14th General Election held on May 3, 2025, winning 82.87% of the total votes cast. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong described the outcome as a \u0026ldquo;clear and strong mandate\u0026rdquo; that will enable Singapore to navigate the complexities of the global economy, particularly amidst ongoing US-China trade tensions. The election campaign highlighted key themes such as the impact of US tariffs on Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy and the necessity for a robust government to address these challenges [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nIn the realm of business and technology, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy is witnessing notable advancements. The launch of Agnes, a homegrown artificial intelligence platform, marks a significant milestone in the country\u0026rsquo;s efforts to cultivate a robust AI ecosystem [SOURCE - Manila Times]. Additionally, Cuprina Holdings announced its acquisition of HTL Marketing Pte Ltd, a move that underscores the growing dynamism in Singapore\u0026rsquo;s fintech sector [SOURCE - Manila Times].\nMeanwhile, regional developments are shaping trade dynamics in Asia. Hong Kong has unveiled an eco-strategy aimed at surpassing Singapore in sustainability efforts, drawing lessons from Bali\u0026rsquo;s environmental missteps [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily]. Additionally, a free trade agreement between Singapore and the Pacific Alliance has come into effect\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/08/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-14ec/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"india-pakistan-tensions-escalate\"\u003eIndia-Pakistan Tensions Escalate\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇳** \u003cstrong\u003e🇵🇰\u003c/strong\u003e India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndia and Pakistan traded missile strikes and drone attacks following India\u0026rsquo;s retaliation on Wednesday for the Kashmir militant. Pakistan reports 31 deaths from Indian strikes while India claims 16 civilian casualties from Pakistani shelling, with both sides claiming that they are neutralizing enemy weapons, but the situation is fluid and claims are hard to verify. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyneele13qt\"\u003eThis BBC Live Tracker is Monitoring the Situation\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"India Strikes Pakistan, Houthis to end Red Sea Strikes, Asia\u0026rsquo;s Hardline Response to Trump Tariffs Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n💥 India Strikes Pakistan\nIndia launched targeted strikes against alleged \u0026ldquo;terrorist infrastructure\u0026rdquo; in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir following a deadly April 22 attack that killed 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan denies involvement and claims 26 civilians were killed in the strikes, while threatening retaliation against what Prime Minister Sharif called a \u0026ldquo;heinous act of aggression.\u0026rdquo; UN chief Guterres has called for \u0026ldquo;maximum restraint\u0026rdquo; as tensions escalate between the nuclear-armed neighbors. More - BBC\nNote - This is a fast-moving situation and this BBC Live Tracker is monitoring events in reeal time.\n🇾🇪** US-Houthi Ceasefire: Red Sea Attacks to End**\nThe US and Yemen\u0026rsquo;s Houthis agreed to an Oman-mediated ceasefire deal halting mutual attacks, with Trump announcing the Houthis have \u0026ldquo;capitulated\u0026rdquo; on targeting Red Sea vessels. Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam clarified the agreement excludes operations against Israel \u0026ldquo;in any way, shape or form,\u0026rdquo; as the group vowed to continue targeting Israel amid recent Israeli strikes on Sanaa airport. The truce follows months of US airstrikes responding to Houthi shipping attacks conducted in solidarity with Palestinians. More - Al Jazeera\n🚢** Asia’s Hardline Response to US Tariffs**\nThree recent stories paint an interesting picture of how difficult some of the tariff deals the US plans to make could be and how other nations are realigning their trade relationships, but not in the way President Trump had hoped.\nUS-China Talks Start this Week - Despite statements from the White House that talks with China were ongoing, US-China trade talks are not due to start until this week. China has been in no rush to begin these talks and it is unclear just how long it will take for any kind of a deal to emerge. More - Bloomberg (Bloomberg also just reported that President Xi has announced a series of measures to strengthen the Chinese economy before talks, further signalling that Beijing is taking a hard stance to these talks and feels it is in the stronger position- Bloomberg)\nSigns of Dollar Exodus in Asia - Asian countries may unload $2.5 trillion in dollar assets as Trump\u0026rsquo;s trade policies trigger currency rebalancing. Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital warns of \u0026ldquo;naked long-dollar positions\u0026rdquo; becoming vulnerable amid Asian currency strengthening, with the Bloomberg dollar gauge already down 8%\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/07/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-b176/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"india-strikes-pakistan-houthis-to-end-red-sea-strikes-asias-hardline-response-to-trump-tariffs\"\u003eIndia Strikes Pakistan, Houthis to end Red Sea Strikes, Asia\u0026rsquo;s Hardline Response to Trump Tariffs\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e💥 \u003cstrong\u003eIndia Strikes Pakistan\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndia launched targeted strikes against alleged \u0026ldquo;terrorist infrastructure\u0026rdquo; in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir following a deadly April 22 attack that killed 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan denies involvement and claims 26 civilians were killed in the strikes, while threatening retaliation against what Prime Minister Sharif called a \u0026ldquo;heinous act of aggression.\u0026rdquo; UN chief Guterres has called for \u0026ldquo;maximum restraint\u0026rdquo; as tensions escalate between the nuclear-armed neighbors. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Israel Plans Mass Civilian Relocation in Gaza, Ukraine Strikes Russia Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇵🇸 Israel Plans Mass Civilian Relocation in Gaza\nNetanyahu plans intensive military operation in Gaza where Palestinian population \u0026ldquo;will be moved\u0026rdquo; for \u0026ldquo;protection.\u0026rdquo; The Security Cabinet unanimously approved plans to call up reservists and put Israeli military in charge of aid delivery to the 2.3 million people suffering under blockade. Reports suggest Israel aims for complete \u0026ldquo;conquest\u0026rdquo; and occupation of Gaza, potentially including population expulsion while Netanyahu \u0026ldquo;continues to promote\u0026rdquo; Trump\u0026rsquo;s plan for Palestinian departure from the enclave. More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇦 Ukraine Strikes Russia\nUkraine struck a drone command center near Russia\u0026rsquo;s Tyotkino village while maintaining \u0026ldquo;military presence\u0026rdquo; in Kursk region, directly contradicting Moscow\u0026rsquo;s April claims of regaining full control. Reports from Russian military bloggers indicate Ukrainian forces attempted to cross the border with armored vehicles after firing missiles overnight and clearing minefields, while Russian officials confirmed damage to an electrical substation in Rylsk. Ukrainian authorities urged evacuation from two settlements in the Sumy region, approximately 12km across the Russian border. More - BBC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable 🇯🇲 Jamaica\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s recent diplomatic efforts have seen significant developments as China\u0026rsquo;s Foreign Minister met with his Russian counterpart in Brazil, highlighting the BRICS nations\u0026rsquo; ambition to position themselves as a viable alternative to the G-20. Brazil\u0026rsquo;s Minister emphasized the importance of collaboration among BRICS members to strengthen their collective influence in global affairs [SOURCE - The Hindu BusinessLine].\nHowever, Brazil\u0026rsquo;s economic landscape is facing challenges, with the Brazilian Industry\u0026rsquo;s PMI reaching a 16-month low, signaling a potential stagnation. In contrast, Santander Brasil reported strong profits for Q1, underscoring its strategic importance to the parent group. Additionally, Brazilian steel manufacturer Gerdau has canceled a $600 million investment in Mexico due to tariffs, reflecting the ongoing trade tensions in the region [[SOURCE - The Rio Times]](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazilian-indust\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/06/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-a72e/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-plans-mass-civilian-relocation-in-gaza-ukraine-strikes-russia\"\u003eIsrael Plans Mass Civilian Relocation in Gaza, Ukraine Strikes Russia\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸 \u003cstrong\u003eIsrael Plans Mass Civilian Relocation in Gaza\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNetanyahu plans intensive military operation in Gaza where Palestinian population \u0026ldquo;will be moved\u0026rdquo; for \u0026ldquo;protection.\u0026rdquo; The Security Cabinet unanimously approved plans to call up reservists and put Israeli military in charge of aid delivery to the 2.3 million people suffering under blockade. Reports suggest Israel aims for complete \u0026ldquo;conquest\u0026rdquo; and occupation of Gaza, potentially including population expulsion while Netanyahu \u0026ldquo;continues to promote\u0026rdquo; Trump\u0026rsquo;s plan for Palestinian departure from the enclave. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/5/israel-plans-conquest-of-gaza-in-expanded-offensive\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Nationalist Candidate Leads in Romania, Israel Calls Up Reservists, Kidnapped Peruvian Miners Killed, Albanese Wins Re-election Andrew Sheves Good morning\n🇷🇴** Nationalist Candidate Leads Romanian Election**\nNationalist George Simion secured 40% in Romania\u0026rsquo;s presidential election first round, outpacing liberal Nicusor Dan and coalition candidate Crin Antonescu at 21% each. The election rerun follows annulment of previous results over fraud allegations. Despite denying pro-Russian sympathies, Simion\u0026rsquo;s potential presidency raises concerns about Romania\u0026rsquo;s strategic NATO role and Ukraine support. More - BBC\n🇮🇱 Israel Calls Up Reservists for Gaza\nIsrael is calling up tens of thousands of reservists to intensify operations in Gaza, despite growing domestic pressure for a ceasefire deal to return captives. Army chief Eyal Zamir announced the expansion while humanitarian groups warn of \u0026ldquo;total collapse\u0026rdquo; amid Gaza\u0026rsquo;s blockade. With Palestinian deaths exceeding 52,000 and most of Gaza\u0026rsquo;s 2.3 million residents displaced, international outrage continues to mount over Israel\u0026rsquo;s military campaign. More - Al Jazeera\n🇵🇪** Kidnapped Peruvian Miners Killed**\nThirteen miners were killed in Peru after being kidnapped while confronting illegal miners at a Poderosa gold mine in Pataz province. The victims were held hostage in a mine shaft for a week before execution. Poderosa, which employs 8,000 people, criticized police inaction amid escalating regional violence from criminal gangs targeting Peru\u0026rsquo;s lucrative gold industry, which produces about 4% of global supply. More - BBC\n🇦🇺 Albanese Wins Re-election in Australia\nAustralian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secured a historic re-election victory, becoming the first leader in over 20 years to win consecutive terms. His center-left Labor Party achieved its largest victory since 1946, with Albanese being the only prime minister to increase vote share after one term since WWII. Opposition leader Peter Dutton\u0026rsquo;s embrace of Trump-style policies backfired as Australian voters rejected conservatism amid global trade tensions and Trump\u0026rsquo;s unpopular tariff announcements. More - Bloomberg\nDon’t miss yesterday’s report on the effects of tariffs and data to calculate how these might affect your business\nRead it here\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/05/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-857b/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"nationalist-candidate-leads-in-romania-israel-calls-up-reservists-kidnapped-peruvian-miners-killed-albanese-wins-re-election\"\u003eNationalist Candidate Leads in Romania, Israel Calls Up Reservists, Kidnapped Peruvian Miners Killed, Albanese Wins Re-election\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇷🇴** Nationalist Candidate Leads Romanian Election**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNationalist George Simion secured 40% in Romania\u0026rsquo;s presidential election first round, outpacing liberal Nicusor Dan and coalition candidate Crin Antonescu at 21% each. The election rerun follows annulment of previous results over fraud allegations. Despite denying pro-Russian sympathies, Simion\u0026rsquo;s potential presidency raises concerns about Romania\u0026rsquo;s strategic NATO role and Ukraine support. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0zl1702ego\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Decis Research Report Good morning and Happy Sunday,\nThe long-term effects of President Trump’s tariffs won’t be known for a long time: remaking America’s industrial base is a generational task. It will even be months before the final tariff rates are agreed so a great deal of uncertainty remains.\nHowever, what is certain is that supply chains are being disrupted now but this is being overshadowed by the political noise and market watching.\nThis Bloomberg interview with the CEO of the Port of Los Angeles on Friday is worth 10 minutes of your time. He very clearly lays out where we are right now with respect to imports from China (down ~30%), the downstream effects (significant), and what restarting supply chains looks like (slow).\nAssuming that many businesses front-loaded inventories in early April, which increases in import volume support, the rapid drop off in May signals the start of a supply chain black hole that’s going to ripple across the US economy.\nBusinesses that own their own supply chains should already have a good sense of what this means for them but most businesses are much farther along the supply chain so the effects won’t be as obvious. And because supply restrictions haven’t hit yet, many may think (mistakenly) that they’re not affected.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not nowDecis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/04/report-the-effects-of-tariffs-on-american-supply-chains/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"decis-research-report\"\u003eDecis Research Report\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning and Happy Sunday,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe long-term effects of President Trump’s tariffs won’t be known for a long time: remaking America’s industrial base is a generational task. It will even be months before the final tariff rates are agreed so a great deal of uncertainty remains.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, what is certain is that supply chains are being disrupted now but this is being overshadowed by the political noise and market watching.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Report: The Effects of Tariffs on American Supply Chains"},{"content":"⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely and Imminent, Turkish Protest Arrests Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely, Imminent\nWarnings are circulating that India plans to attack Pakistan in response to last week’s attack on primarily Indian tourists in Kashmir. The attack by The Resistance Front (TRF), militants believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, left 26 dead [Al Jazeera Report here]\nIndia has a wide range of options from surgical strikes to more conventional shows of force and attacks, but there is no indication of where, when, and how they will respond.\nNevertheless, the attack in Kashmir was the deadliest in over 20 years and has been described as ‘an act of war’, making the chance of retaliation in the coming days very high.\n🇹🇷** Hundreds Arrested in Istanbul**\nTurkish authorities arrested 382 people for \u0026ldquo;non-authorised demonstrations\u0026rdquo; in Istanbul as 50,000 police officers were deployed to enforce a May Day protest ban, with public transportation shut down to prevent people from reaching Taksim Square. The crackdown comes amid heightened tensions following the March arrest of opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, which had sparked mass demonstrations from hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy supporters. Rights group Amnesty International has urged Turkey to lift the demonstration ban, calling the restrictions \u0026ldquo;based on entirely spurious security and public order grounds.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania\nRegional News Summary In recent developments across Africa, significant strides towards peace and stability have emerged, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. A historic peace framework agreement has been signed between the two nations, facilitated by U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. This agreement not only aims to end years of conflict but also seeks to harness the region\u0026rsquo;s vast mineral wealth, marking a crucial step towards regional stability [SOURCE - UPI]. The US has played a pivotal role in brokering this peace declaration, highlighting the importance of mineral ambitions as a driving force behind the negotiations [[SOURCE - Rio Times]](https://www.riotimesonline.com/us-\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/02/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-c82c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"-indian-attack-on-pakistan-seems-likely-and-imminent-turkish-protest-arrests\"\u003e⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely and Imminent, Turkish Protest Arrests\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely, Imminent\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWarnings are circulating that India plans to attack Pakistan in response to last week’s attack on primarily Indian tourists in Kashmir. The attack by The Resistance Front (TRF), militants believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, left 26 dead [\u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/23/act-of-war-what-happened-in-kashmir-attack-that-killed-26-tourists\"\u003eAl Jazeera Report here\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIndia has a wide range of options from surgical strikes to more conventional shows of force and attacks, but there is no indication of where, when, and how they will respond.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"US-Ukraine Minerals Deal, China\u0026rsquo;s Domestic Economic Pressures. Plus we\u0026rsquo;re relaunching deep dives (with an upgrade) Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇦** US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Signed**\nUkraine and the US signed an agreement to establish the \u0026ldquo;United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund\u0026rdquo; for joint investment in Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s natural resources, marking a diplomatic victory for Kyiv which rewrote the deal after initially refusing to sign. The revised agreement removes language requiring Ukraine to reimburse Washington for past military aid and includes provisions protecting Ukraine from violating EU laws, though Trump\u0026rsquo;s frustration grows over the three-week delay in signing. The largely symbolic deal offers no concrete security guarantees but signals \u0026ldquo;long-term strategic alignment\u0026rdquo; between the countries. More - Washington Post\n🇨🇳** China’s Domestic Pressures**\nComment - How the US-China trade war resolves comes down to who blinks first. So far, reports indicate that President Trump and his team seem more keen to speak to Beijing than vice versa. However, while this indicates that China is in a stronger position — and everything points to China having much greater patience and pain tolerance than the US — this BBC article outlines the pressures in the Chinese domestic economy and how these are applying pressure on President Xi.\nIn-Depth Research Reports You might recall the DCDR Pro Reports from a while back. These gave you an in-depth look at a particular topic, like shipping or rare earth minerals, which you could use in your planning and decision-making.\nThe downside was that these took a long time to write and didn’t answer a specific question so answering the ‘so what?’ question was still left to the user.\nHowever, the agents now give us the opportunity to create these reports much more quickly and to consider the potential outcomes of a situation, so we can relaunch these reports. But now, instead of just a deep-research report, we’re also going to be answering a timely, pertinent question.\nFor example, instead of just looking at shipping choke points, we might consider the size of the interruption that the tariffs have inserted into America’s supply chain and when these might hit. Something that’s on everyone’s mind right now (or at least should be).\nThese reports will be a pro subscriber feature and eventually something users can commission by themselves, but for the next couple of weeks, I’ll be making these public and sharing the reports via the SITREP.\nSo here’s the question - what do you want a report on?\nHit reply and let me know\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea,\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/05/01/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-90e9/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-ukraine-minerals-deal-chinas-domestic-economic-pressures-plus-were-relaunching-deep-dives-with-an-upgrade\"\u003eUS-Ukraine Minerals Deal, China\u0026rsquo;s Domestic Economic Pressures. Plus we\u0026rsquo;re relaunching deep dives (with an upgrade)\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦** US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Signed**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUkraine and the US signed an agreement to establish the \u0026ldquo;United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund\u0026rdquo; for joint investment in Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s natural resources, marking a diplomatic victory for Kyiv which rewrote the deal after initially refusing to sign. The revised agreement removes language requiring Ukraine to reimburse Washington for past military aid and includes provisions protecting Ukraine from violating EU laws, though Trump\u0026rsquo;s frustration grows over the three-week delay in signing. The largely symbolic deal offers no concrete security guarantees but signals \u0026ldquo;long-term strategic alignment\u0026rdquo; between the countries. \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/30/ukraine-trump-minerals-deal-agreement/\"\u003eMore - Washington Post\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Carney, Liberals Win in Canada, Gaza Fighting Grinds On Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇨🇦** Carney, Liberals Win in Canada**\nCarney\u0026rsquo;s Liberals won a projected 169 seats, short of the 172 needed for a majority, requiring cooperation with other parties as he navigates US trade tariffs and domestic issues. Meanwhile, the previous favorite, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, lost his Commons seat. Tension with the US remains as the White House controversially commented that the election \u0026ldquo;does not affect President Trump\u0026rsquo;s plan to make Canada America\u0026rsquo;s cherished 51st state,\u0026rdquo; a scenario Carney told the BBC would \u0026ldquo;never, ever happen.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇵🇸** War in Gaza Grinds On**\nComment - Gaza has mostly fallen out of the news headlines, so much so that even significant events — such as the murder and subsequent cover-up of Palestinian medics by the IDF — get little coverage. Al Jazeera maintains a daily news tracker of events in Gaza, and just the summary is a reminder of what’s happening, mostly out of sight in the West. Here’s yesterday’s summary.\nThe International Court of Justice (ICJ) held a second day of hearings on Israel’s humanitarian obligations to Palestinians as a total Israeli blockade on humanitarian assistance into the Gaza Strip passes 50 days.\nUnited Nations human rights chief Volker Turk has warned of a “new, unseen level” of humanitarian crisis in Gaza.\nHuman rights watchdog Amnesty International has said in an annual report that Israel is carrying out a “live-streamed genocide” in Gaza with support from powerful countries such as the United States. The report states that Israel routinely targets civilians and engages in abuses such as torture and enforced disappearances.\nIsrael released 10 Palestinians from detention into Gaza, including Assaad al-Nassasra, an ambulance driver whose whereabouts were unknown for weeks after Israeli forces opened fire on a group of Palestinian emergency workers in Gaza in late March, killing 15 medics. The released detainees say they were tortured while in Israeli facilities, where such practices are said to be widespread.\nA woman was shot and killed by Israeli forces in the village of al-Tira near Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, where Israeli forces continue to carry out raids.\nAl Jazeera’s biases aside, this is a stark reminder that the war in Gaza remains very real and it is primarily Palestinian civilians who are suffering. Al Jazeera’s Live Tracker for today\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/30/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-010c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"carney-liberals-win-in-canada-gaza-fighting-grinds-on\"\u003eCarney, Liberals Win in Canada, Gaza Fighting Grinds On\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇦** Carney, Liberals Win in Canada**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCarney\u0026rsquo;s Liberals won a projected 169 seats, short of the 172 needed for a majority, requiring cooperation with other parties as he navigates US trade tariffs and domestic issues. Meanwhile, the previous favorite, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, lost his Commons seat. Tension with the US remains as the White House controversially commented that the election \u0026ldquo;does not affect President Trump\u0026rsquo;s plan to make Canada America\u0026rsquo;s cherished 51st state,\u0026rdquo; a scenario Carney told the BBC would \u0026ldquo;never, ever happen.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy6lg3p7ero\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Spain, Portugal Blackout, Ceasefire in the DRC Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\n🇪🇸** 🇵🇹 Blackout Hits Spain and Portugal**\nA massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal on Monday, reaching the 12-hour mark with only 50% of supply restored and no clear cause identified despite losing 15 gigawatts in just five seconds. Spanish PM Sanchez warned of a \u0026ldquo;long night ahead\u0026rdquo; while declaring a state of emergency in eight regions, as the unprecedented blackout stranded 35,000 train passengers and raised questions about grid stability amid Europe\u0026rsquo;s renewable energy transition. Portugal\u0026rsquo;s PM Montenegro expected full restoration within hours. More - Bloomberg\n🇨🇩** DRC-M23 Ceasefire Announced**\nThe Democratic Republic of Congo government and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have agreed to a cessation of hostilities during peace talks mediated by Qatar, following a surprise meeting between Congolese President Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Kagame. Despite the agreement, reports of continued clashes highlight the fragility of the truce, with deeper discussions expected in Doha in coming weeks. The conflict has killed thousands since January\u0026rsquo;s M23 offensive captured DRC\u0026rsquo;s two largest cities, with at least six previous truces having collapsed since 2021. More - Al Jazeera\nMore Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s President Lula is currently navigating a diplomatic rift with Ukraine as he plans a visit to Moscow, which has raised tensions between the two nations. Concurrently, Brazil and Chile have accelerated their ambitious $12.5 billion trade corridor project, signing 13 agreements aimed at enhancing infrastructure and trade, including key defense collaborations. This initiative is expected to bolster economic ties and regional stability [SOURCE - The Rio Times].\nOn the judicial front, Brazil\u0026rsquo;s Supreme Court is reviewing charges against allies of former President Bolsonaro in coup proceedings, reflecting ongoing political turbulence in the country [SOURCE - ABC News]. Economically, industry leaders predict a deceleration in\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/29/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-8d2e/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"spain-portugal-blackout-ceasefire-in-the-drc\"\u003eSpain, Portugal Blackout, Ceasefire in the DRC\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇪🇸** \u003cstrong\u003e🇵🇹\u003c/strong\u003e Blackout Hits Spain and Portugal**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal on Monday, reaching the 12-hour mark with only 50% of supply restored and no clear cause identified despite losing 15 gigawatts in just five seconds. Spanish PM Sanchez warned of a \u0026ldquo;long night ahead\u0026rdquo; while declaring a state of emergency in eight regions, as the unprecedented blackout stranded 35,000 train passengers and raised questions about grid stability amid Europe\u0026rsquo;s renewable energy transition. Portugal\u0026rsquo;s PM Montenegro expected full restoration within hours. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-28/spain-faces-a-long-night-as-blackout-drags-on-with-no-answers\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Deadly Attack in Canada on Election Eve, China Seizes Disputed Atoll, Iran Port Blast and Israeli Strikes in Beirut Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\n🇨🇦** Deadly Attack in Canada Upsets Final Day of Campaigning**\nCanada\u0026rsquo;s federal election campaign took a somber turn as party leaders responded to a deadly incident where an SUV rammed into a Filipino festival in Vancouver, killing 11 people. Prime Minister Carney cancelled major rallies while continuing smaller events, Conservative Leader Poilievre held a moment of silence before resuming campaign activities, and NDP Leader Singh—who had left the festival minutes before the attack—cancelled multiple events to attend a Filipino mass. More - CBC\nRecent polls suggest Liberals are favored to win Monday\u0026rsquo;s election. CBC Polls\n🇨🇳** China Seizes Disputed Sandbank in Spratlys**\nChina\u0026rsquo;s coastguard has seized Sandy Cay, a tiny sandbank in the disputed Spratly Islands, with state media releasing images of officers planting the Chinese flag on the reef. The Philippines responded by landing on three sandbanks themselves, releasing mimicking photos while reporting Chinese vessels nearby, all amid ongoing US-Philippine military exercises involving 17,000 personnel. The White House called China\u0026rsquo;s actions \u0026ldquo;deeply concerning if true.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇮🇷** Port Blast Rocks Iran**\nA massive explosion at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port killed at least 40 people and injured about 1,000. The blast occurred at a hazardous materials storage depot, with authorities declaring national mourning while Russia sends aircraft with specialists to help extinguish the fire. Port operations have partially resumed with officials claiming only one zone was impacted. More - Al Jazeera\n🇱🇧** Israel Strikes Beirut Suburb**\nIsrael conducted an airstrike on a Hezbollah precision missile storage facility in a Beirut suburb, claiming it posed a \u0026ldquo;significant threat\u0026rdquo; despite the November ceasefire agreement. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called on the US and France to \u0026ldquo;force Israel to stop its aggression immediately,\u0026rdquo; while the UN special coordinator urged all sides to respect the cessation of hostilities. The strike is part of Israel\u0026rsquo;s intensified military operations on multiple fronts following a period of relative calm earlier this year. More - Bloomberg\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/publication/logo/f658e2e0-a4ce-4f92-bb5a-\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/28/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-541a/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"deadly-attack-in-canada-on-election-eve-china-seizes-disputed-atoll-iran-port-blast-and-israeli-strikes-in-beirut\"\u003eDeadly Attack in Canada on Election Eve, China Seizes Disputed Atoll, Iran Port Blast and Israeli Strikes in Beirut\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇦** Deadly Attack in Canada Upsets Final Day of Campaigning**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCanada\u0026rsquo;s federal election campaign took a somber turn as party leaders responded to a deadly incident where an SUV rammed into a Filipino festival in Vancouver, killing 11 people. Prime Minister Carney cancelled major rallies while continuing smaller events, Conservative Leader Poilievre held a moment of silence before resuming campaign activities, and NDP Leader Singh—who had left the festival minutes before the attack—cancelled multiple events to attend a Filipino mass. \u003ca href=\"https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-election-vancouver-lapu-lapu-tragedy-1.7519847\"\u003eMore - CBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Canada Election Summary and the Downside of Trump\u0026rsquo;s Tariff Vacillations Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇨🇦 Canadians vote on Monday (although a record number have already voted early) and the BBC has a neat summary of how the two parties compare on key issues. Unsurprisingly, both reject President Trump’s idea that Canada become America’s 51st state.\n🤷 Bloomberg notes that the significant impact of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff vacillations is global uncertainty for both governments and businesses. [More - Bloomberg]\nRemember, I mentioned the AI forecasting tournament?\nIt turns out that the bots are doing quite well. Read to the bottom for more.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇿🇲 Zambia\nRegional News Summary Political tensions are escalating in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as the government has banned the People\u0026rsquo;s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), led by former President Joseph Kabila, due to alleged connections with the M23 rebel group. This significant move is likely to hinder Kabila\u0026rsquo;s political ambitions and reshape the DRC\u0026rsquo;s political landscape [SOURCE - BBC].\nIn a related context, Bangladesh has called on the United Nations to increase troop deployments for peacekeeping missions, including in the DRC. This request underscores the international community\u0026rsquo;s commitment to fostering stability in the region [SOURCE - The Daily Star].\nMeanwhile, Algeria is making strides in its pharmaceutical sector as Bangladesh\u0026rsquo;s One Pharma plans to export drugs to the country, enhancing trade relations. Additionally, Algeria has been identified as having the fourth-largest gold reserves globally, despite lacking operational gold mines, presenting a unique economic scenario [SOURCE - The Daily Star] [[SOURCE - DNA\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/25/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-e3c0/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"canada-election-summary-and-the-downside-of-trumps-tariff-vacillations\"\u003eCanada Election Summary and the Downside of Trump\u0026rsquo;s Tariff Vacillations\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇦 Canadians vote on Monday (although a record number have already voted early) and \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjdx9992r8ko\"\u003ethe BBC has a neat summary of how the two parties compare on key issues\u003c/a\u003e. Unsurprisingly, both reject President Trump’s idea that Canada become America’s 51st state.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🤷 Bloomberg notes that the significant impact of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff vacillations is global uncertainty for both governments and businesses. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/trump-s-trade-whiplash-sinks-world-into-dreaded-uncertainty\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"China Returns Boeing Jets, Turkish Earthquake Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n/\n🛫** China Returns Boeing Jets**\nChina has returned Boeing aircraft and halted delivery of 50 more planes in retaliation for Trump\u0026rsquo;s 145% tariffs. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed two jets have already been sent back with more to follow, forcing the company to seek alternative buyers. Despite the escalation, Trump expressed optimism that tariff levels would \u0026ldquo;come down substantially.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\nNote - this is taking place despite attempts by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent [BBC] that a big deal can be made with China, suggesting that a lot of short- and mid-term pain lies ahead for US businesses.\n🇹🇷** Istanbul Earthquake Hits**\nA 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck Wednesday morning, centered off Istanbul\u0026rsquo;s coast in the Marmara Sea, causing buildings to shake across Turkey\u0026rsquo;s largest city. While no collapsed buildings have been reported, authorities are conducting damage assessments after eight aftershocks followed the initial tremor. The quake has raised concerns given Istanbul\u0026rsquo;s proximity to fault lines and memories of the devastating 2023 earthquake that killed over 53,000 people in southern Turkey.\nMore - Al Jazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nAsia News Summary In the lead-up to Singapore\u0026rsquo;s General Election 2025, political parties are actively unveiling their manifestos. The Workers\u0026rsquo; Party has proposed a range of measures including GST exemptions, a minimum wage, and a wealth tax, along with a call for the recognition of the State of Palestine. The Singapore Democratic Party is advocating for the scrapping of GST on essential goods, while Red Dot United is pushing for a housing reset and unconditional cash transfers for citizens [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nAs Singapore grapples with an ageing population, the demand for wellness services is expected to surge, driving significant growth in the healthcare sector. The country\u0026rsquo;s robust economic fundamentals have positioned it among the top three nations in the Global Opportunity Rankings for wealth and education, alongside Switzerland and the USA [[SOURCE - Rio Times]](https://www.riotimesonline.com/switzerland-singapore-and-usa-lead-global-opportunity-rankings-for-wealth-and-education/\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/24/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-5e0f/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"china-returns-boeing-jets-turkish-earthquake\"\u003eChina Returns Boeing Jets, Turkish Earthquake\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e/\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛫** China Returns Boeing Jets**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eChina has returned Boeing aircraft and halted delivery of 50 more planes in retaliation for Trump\u0026rsquo;s 145% tariffs. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed two jets have already been sent back with more to follow, forcing the company to seek alternative buyers. Despite the escalation, Trump expressed optimism that tariff levels would \u0026ldquo;come down substantially.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3evw059x04o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Why we\u0026rsquo;re participating in the Metaculus Forecasting Tournament The Decis Intelligence agents weren\u0026rsquo;t designed to be forecasting tools. (In fact, I have a draft article explaining why we aren\u0026rsquo;t in the prediction business.) However, as I was building out the scenario planning tools, it was obvious that if these were to be useful, I needed a way to determine how effective, realistic, and accurate the scenario likelihood estimates were.\nBut, as Andrew Ng wrote recently, evals and benchmarking are hard and expensive to set up. And in this case, how do you even evaluate the effectiveness of a forward-looking forecast?\nEnter the Metaculus AI Benchmarking series.\nThis is a series of tournaments \u0026ldquo;designed to benchmark AI forecasting capabilities against top human forecasters on complex, real-world questions\u0026rdquo;. These tournaments not only allow us to see how well the agents do with respect to realistically assessing how a situation will play out, but they also let us measure the agents\u0026rsquo; effectiveness against human forecasters.\nOver the next three months, the Decis agents will conduct their analysis and make forecasts on hundreds of questions while being compared to human forecasters, other bots, and critically, the actual outcome of real world events.\nThis means that the tournament is a wholly objective test of the agents\u0026rsquo; performance in real-world conditions (and a very public one: the bot is named decis-ai-bot1, so it\u0026rsquo;s going to be hard to hide). We\u0026rsquo;re already 190+ forecasts in, so the questions are coming thick and fast, and some are resolving soon, meaning we will see some results before the end of April.\nSo I\u0026rsquo;m very much looking forward to seeing how the agents perform and am particularly excited to test the subject-matter-agent and worldSIM capabilities.\nA big thanks to the Metaculus team for putting the tournament together and for making the bot-building framework so straightforward. 🚀\nRead more about the tournaments here\nDecis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/23/putting-the-decis-agents-to-the-test/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"why-were-participating-in-the-metaculus-forecasting-tournament\"\u003eWhy we\u0026rsquo;re participating in the Metaculus Forecasting Tournament\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe \u003ca href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/company/decis-ai/\"\u003eDecis Intelligence\u003c/a\u003e agents weren\u0026rsquo;t designed to be forecasting tools. (In fact, I have a draft article explaining why we aren\u0026rsquo;t in the prediction business.) However, as I was building out the scenario planning tools, it was obvious that if these were to be useful, I needed a way to determine how effective, realistic, and accurate the scenario likelihood estimates were.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut, as \u003ca href=\"https://www.deeplearning.ai/the-batch/issue-297/\"\u003eAndrew Ng wrote recently, evals and benchmarking are hard and expensive to set up\u003c/a\u003e. And in this case, how do you even evaluate the effectiveness of a forward-looking forecast?\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Putting The Decis Agents To The Test"},{"content":"Tourist Attack in Kashmir, Trump Softens Tariff Stance on China and Ukraine Peace Talks Setbacks. Plus, how we\u0026rsquo;re putting the bots to the test. Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇳** 26 Tourists Killed in Kashmir Attack**\nGunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir in the deadliest attack in 25 years. The Resistance Front who claimed the attack are believed to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. The attack, targeting mostly Indian civilians at the \u0026ldquo;valley of shepherds\u0026rdquo; tourist destination, threatens to escalate India-Pakistan tensions, with some experts describing it as \u0026ldquo;an act of war.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\n🚢** Trump Signals Tariff Pullback on China**\nPresident Trump indicated he plans to reduce China tariffs substantially if a trade deal is reached, softening his previous hardline stance. Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged that the current standoff with China is unsustainable, though a comprehensive deal could take years. Chinese markets responded positively as Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated \u0026ldquo;the door for talks is wide open.\u0026rdquo; More - Bloomberg\nFrom Bloomberg\n🇺🇦** Ukraine Peace Talks Stuck**\nLondon\u0026rsquo;s high-level Ukraine peace talks were downgraded after US Secretary of State Rubio and envoy Witkoff canceled their participation. The withdrawal followed Ukrainian President Zelensky\u0026rsquo;s rejection of potential US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea in exchange for ending hostilities. While lower-level discussions continue with retired Lt. Gen. Kellogg representing the US, the Ukrainian delegation arrived ready to pursue \u0026ldquo;a full and unconditional ceasefire.\u0026rdquo; More - Washington Post (Further complicating matters, there are also reports that the US is pulling back from efforts to investigate Russian war crimes in Ukraine. More - Washington Post)\nWe’re putting the bots to the test! We’re taking part in the Metaculus AI Benchmarking series, tournaments that test the capabilities of AI agents in real-world conditions and compares their effectiveness to human forecasters and other AI agents.\nIt’s a great, real-world test of the agents’ effectiveness and will significantly enhance the scenario planning\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/23/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-01c9/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"tourist-attack-in-kashmir-trump-softens-tariff-stance-on-china-and-ukraine-peace-talks-setbacks-plus-how-were-putting-the-bots-to-the-test\"\u003eTourist Attack in Kashmir, Trump Softens Tariff Stance on China and Ukraine Peace Talks Setbacks. Plus, how we\u0026rsquo;re putting the bots to the test.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇳** 26 Tourists Killed in Kashmir Attack**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir in the deadliest attack in 25 years. The Resistance Front who claimed the attack are believed to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. The attack, targeting mostly Indian civilians at the \u0026ldquo;valley of shepherds\u0026rdquo; tourist destination, threatens to escalate India-Pakistan tensions, with some experts describing it as \u0026ldquo;an act of war.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/23/act-of-war-what-happened-in-kashmir-attack-that-killed-26-tourists\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"US Markets, Dollar Continue Slide, Speculation of Next Pope Begins and Gaza Restrictions Increase Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\nThree headlines to start your day\n🔻 US Market Fall Resumes Amid Trump-Fed Tensions\nAfter the long weekend, US markets slumped Monday with the S\u0026amp;P 500 and other major indexes dropping around 2.5% as President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell over interest rates. The dollar weakened to a 15-month low while gold surged above $3,400 an ounce amid growing investor concerns about Fed independence and global trade tensions. More - Bloomberg\n🔭 Bloomberg also has this great look ahead to upcoming events that will indicate how Trump’s tariffs and uncertainty over the US economy are being felt and interpreted around the world.\n🕊️ Speculation of Next Pope Begins\nAs preparations for the burial of Pope Francis get underway, the subsequent papal conclave to select his successor will be the largest in Catholic history with 135 eligible cardinals, creating an unpredictable outcome. Major contenders include Cardinals Bo from Myanmar, Tagle from the Philippines, and Italians Pizzaballa and Parolin, reflecting Francis\u0026rsquo;s creation of a historically diverse College of Cardinals where Europeans no longer hold the majority. The conclave will begin 15-20 days after Francis\u0026rsquo;s death. More - Washington Post\n🇵🇸** Gaza Squeeze Increases as Aid Blockade Continues**\nThe IDF has now designated 69% of Gaza as “no-go” areas, according to the UN, while Israel continues to deny requests to send food and aid into the enclave. More - Al Jazeera\nKey Metrics WTI is $61.99 (Down)\nLow |- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nWheat is $179.607 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.15 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026gt; | High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Apr 21 2025 20:11 UTC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Braz\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/22/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-eb16/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-markets-dollar-continue-slide-speculation-of-next-pope-begins-and-gaza-restrictions-increase\"\u003eUS Markets, Dollar Continue Slide, Speculation of Next Pope Begins and Gaza Restrictions Increase\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree headlines to start your day\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🔻 \u003cstrong\u003eUS Market Fall Resumes Amid Trump-Fed Tensions\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfter the long weekend, US markets slumped Monday with the S\u0026amp;P 500 and other major indexes dropping around 2.5% as President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell over interest rates. The dollar weakened to a 15-month low while gold surged above $3,400 an ounce amid growing investor concerns about Fed independence and global trade tensions. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/traders-unfazed-in-quietest-market-selloff-as-big-days-pile-up\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Ratings rundown Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\nIt’s just the ratings today but the full report is back tomorrow\n🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable\n🇦🇱 Albania is Weak\n🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\n🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\n🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\n🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\n🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak\n🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\n🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\n🇦🇹 Austria is Stable\n🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak\n🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\n🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak\n🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable\n🇧🇾 Belarus is Weak\n🇧🇪 Belgium is Weak\n🇧🇿 Belize is Weak\n🇧🇯 Benin is Weak\n🇧🇹 Bhutan is Stable\n🇧🇴 Bolivia is Weak\n🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak\n🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable\n🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak\n🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable\n🇧🇬 Bulgaria is Weak\n🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable\n🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak\n🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak\n🇨🇲 Cameroon is Weak\n🇨🇦 Canada is Weak\n🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable\n🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable\n🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable\n🇨🇱 Chile is Weak\n🇨🇳 China is Weak\n🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak\n🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak\n🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable\n🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable\n🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak\n🇨🇾 Cyprus is Stable\n🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable\n🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable\n🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable\n🇩🇯 Djibouti is Weak\n🇩🇲 Dominica is Weak\n🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Weak\n🇹🇱 East Timor is Weak\n🇪🇨 Ecuador is Weak\n🇪🇬 Egypt is Weak\n🇸🇻 El Salvador is Weak\n🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable\n🇪🇷 Eritrea is Weak\n🇪🇪 Estonia is Weak\n🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak\n🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Unstable\n🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Stable\n🇫🇯 Fiji is Stable\n🇫🇮 Finland is Stable\n🇫🇷 France is Weak\n🇬🇦 Gabon is Unstable\n🇬🇪 Georgia is Weak\n🇩🇪 Germany is Weak\n🇬🇭 Ghana is Stable\n🇬🇷 Greece is Weak\n🇬🇩 Grenada is Weak\n🇬🇹 Guatemala is Weak\n🇬🇳 Guinea is Unstable\n🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau is Unstable\n🇬🇾 Guyana is Weak\n🇭🇹 Haiti is Unstable\n🇭🇳 Honduras is Unstable\n🇭🇺 Hungary is Weak\n🇮🇸 Iceland is Stable\n🇮🇳 India is Stable\n🇮🇩 Indonesia is Weak\n🇮🇷 Iran is Weak\n🇮🇶 Iraq is Unstable\n🇮🇪 Ireland is Stable\n🇮🇱 Israel is Weak\n🇮🇹 Italy is Stable\n🇨🇮 Ivory Coast is Weak\n🇯🇲 Jamaica is Weak\n🇯🇵 Japan is Weak\n🇯🇴 Jordan is Stable\n🇰🇿 Kazakhstan is Weak\n🇰🇪 Kenya is Weak\n🇰🇮 Kiribati is Weak\n🇰🇼 Kuwait is Weak\n🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan is Weak\n🇱🇦 Laos is Weak\n🇱🇻 Latvia is Stable\n🇱🇧 Lebanon is Unstable\n🇱🇸 Lesotho is Weak\n🇱🇷 Liberia is Weak\n🇱🇾 Libya is Unstable\n🇱🇮 Liechtenstein is Stable\n🇱🇹 Lithuania is Stable\n🇱🇺 Luxembourg is Stable\n🇲🇰 Macedonia is Stable\n🇲🇬 Madagascar is Weak\n🇲🇼 Malawi is Weak\n🇲🇾 Malaysia is Stable\n🇲🇻 Maldives is Weak\n🇲🇱 Mali is Unstable\n🇲🇹 Malta is Stable\n🇲🇭 Marshall Islands is Stable\n🇲🇷 Mauritania is Weak\n🇲🇺 Mauritius is Stable\n🇲🇽 Mexico is Weak\n🇲🇩 Moldova is Weak\n🇲🇨 Monaco is Stable\n🇲🇳 Mongolia is Weak\n🇲🇪 Montenegro is Weak\n🇲🇦 Morocco is Weak\n🇲🇿 Mozambique is Weak\n🇲🇲 Myanmar is Unstable\n🇳🇦 Namibia is Stable\n🇳🇷 Nauru is Weak\n🇳🇵 Nepal is Weak\n🇳🇱 Netherlands is Stable\n🇳🇿 New Zealand is Stable\n🇳🇮 Nicaragua is Weak\n🇳🇪 Niger is Unstable\n🇳🇬 Nigeria is Weak\n🇰🇵 North Korea is Unstable\n🇳🇴 Norway is Stable\n🇴🇲 Oman is Weak\n🇵🇰 Pakistan is Weak\n🇵🇼 Palau is Stable\n🇵🇦 Panama is Stable\n🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea is Weak\n🇵🇾 Paraguay is Stable\n🇵🇪 Peru is Weak\n🇵🇭 Philippines is Weak\n🇵🇱 Poland is Weak\n🇵🇹 Portugal is Stable\n🇶🇦 Qatar is Stable\n🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo is Unstable\n🇷🇴 Romania is Weak\n🇷🇺 Russia is Unstable\n🇷🇼 Rwanda is Stable\n🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis is Stable\n🇱🇨 Saint Lucia is Weak\n🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is Stable\n🇼🇸 Samoa is Weak\n🇸🇲 San Marino is Stable\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/21/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-8f01/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ratings-rundown\"\u003eRatings rundown\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eIt’s just the ratings today but the full report is back tomorrow\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇱 Albania is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇹 Austria is Stable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Happy Easter 🐣 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nI’m taking a couple of days off for easter weekend, so it will just be the ratings and summaries today and on Monday. Headlines and weekend diversions will return next week.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe\nRegional News Summary Conflict and humanitarian crises continue to plague the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), particularly in the eastern regions. The United Nations has condemned the \u0026ldquo;systemic\u0026rdquo; child rape occurring in these conflict-torn areas, underscoring the severity of the situation. Médecins Sans Frontières has also denounced a deadly raid on a hospital, which has further exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in the region [SOURCE - Malay Mail] [SOURCE - Jordan Times].\nThe DRC\u0026rsquo;s healthcare system is under immense strain, facing challenges from a surge in mpox cases and cuts from the US Agency for International Development, which have severely impacted healthcare responses [SOURCE - TASS] [SOURCE - Manila Times].\nEconomically, the DRC is grappling with significant concerns. The African Development Bank has warned of a potential tariff \u0026ldquo;shock wave\u0026rdquo; that could destabilize the economy, compounded by a rise in financial and economic crime threats [SOURCE - IB Times] [SOURCE - RTT News]. However, there is a glimmer of hope as African trade ministers, including those from the DRC, have agreed to promote intra-continental trade, which could stimulate economic growth [SOURCE - SABC News].\nIn a separate development, tensions have escalated between Algeria and France following Algeria\u0026rsquo;s expulsion of 12 French officials, citing \u0026ldquo;undiplomatic\u0026rdquo; behavior. This dipl\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/18/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-7d82/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"happy-easter-\"\u003eHappy Easter 🐣\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eI’m taking a couple of days off for easter weekend, so it will just be the ratings and summaries today and on Monday. Headlines and weekend diversions will return next week.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"africa-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"US Stock Plunge After Fed Warning, US-Iran Talks to Continue Saturday Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🔻** US Stocks Plunge After Fed Warning**\nUS markets plunged Wednesday as Powell warned of inflation risks from trade tensions and the Trump administration restricted chip exports to China. Nvidia fell 6.9% facing $5.5 billion in charges while AMD dropped 7.4%, expecting an $800 million writedown, after both companies\u0026rsquo; advanced chips were barred from China. The selloff deepened during Powell\u0026rsquo;s Chicago speech, with the S\u0026amp;P 500 closing down 2.2% and the semiconductor index dropping 4.1%. More - Bloomberg\n🇮🇷** Iran and US Nuclear Talks to Continue in Rome**\nIran confirmed nuclear negotiations with the US will take place in Rome on Saturday, with Oman mediating amid escalating tensions. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi arrived in Tehran warning Iran is \u0026ldquo;not far\u0026rdquo; from nuclear weapons capability, as the country continues enriching uranium to 60 percent purity. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi maintained enrichment rights are \u0026ldquo;non-negotiable\u0026rdquo; despite US envoy Witkoff\u0026rsquo;s statement that Iran \u0026ldquo;must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment.\u0026rdquo; More - Al Jazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy is facing challenges as the government has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to between 0-2%, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade. In response, the central bank has eased monetary policy for the second consecutive time to mitigate the effects of the ongoing trade war. The Singapore Business Federation has called on ASEAN countries to enhance intra-regional trade to reduce reliance on external markets [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nAs Singapore prepares for its general elections on May 3, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong condemned insensitive remarks made by Calvin Cheng, emphasizing the need for national cohesion. The political landscape has been further complicated by the emergence of deepfake videos targeting former President Halimah Yacob, who criticized such \u0026ldquo;dirty tactics\u0026rdquo; [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nMeanwhile, the trade war between the U.S. and China has escalated, with bo\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/17/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-e4a3/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-stock-plunge-after-fed-warning-us-iran-talks-to-continue-saturday\"\u003eUS Stock Plunge After Fed Warning, US-Iran Talks to Continue Saturday\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🔻** US Stocks Plunge After Fed Warning**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUS markets plunged Wednesday as Powell warned of inflation risks from trade tensions and the Trump administration restricted chip exports to China. Nvidia fell 6.9% facing $5.5 billion in charges while AMD dropped 7.4%, expecting an $800 million writedown, after both companies\u0026rsquo; advanced chips were barred from China. The selloff deepened during Powell\u0026rsquo;s Chicago speech, with the S\u0026amp;P 500 closing down 2.2% and the semiconductor index dropping 4.1%. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/chipmakers-lead-tech-stock-rout-as-trump-curbs-chips-to-china\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"New Chinese Trade Negotiator and Israel Increases Pressure on Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇨🇳 China Names New Trade Negotiator Amid Tariff War with US\nChina has appointed Li Chenggang, former assistant commerce minister and WTO ambassador, to replace veteran negotiator Wang Shouwen as its key trade envoy amid escalating tensions with the United States. The surprise move comes as Beijing faces the impact of Trump\u0026rsquo;s increased tariffs, which recently jumped from 10% to 145%, with China retaliating by raising duties on US goods to 125%. Despite reporting better-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, Chinese officials warned of economic challenges ahead as the tariffs begin to affect exports. A Chinese official criticized the US approach as \u0026ldquo;tariff barriers and trade bullying\u0026rdquo; that \u0026ldquo;violates economic laws\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;has a serious impact on the world economic order.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇵🇸 Israel Increased Pressure on Gaza\nIsraeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has declared that troops will maintain indefinite control over captured Gaza areas, designating them as \u0026ldquo;security zones.\u0026rdquo; Katz confirmed Israel is deliberately using food restrictions as leverage against Hamas, acknowledging that humanitarian aid is being blocked as a pressure tactic. The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen with at least 19 Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks since dawn today, including 10 in a Gaza City strike. According to Gaza\u0026rsquo;s Health Ministry, the confirmed death toll has reached at least 51,000 Palestinians, while the Gaza Government Media Office estimates the actual figure exceeds 61,700 when accounting for thousands presumed dead under rubble after 18 months of war. More - Al Jazeera* *\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s President Karin Keller-Sutter recently engaged in discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding tariffs, highlighting the need for stability in trade relationships for Swiss companies. This conversation followed Trump\u0026rsquo;s promise to suspend tariffs, a move that has been met with mixed reactions as the Swiss watch industry faces challenges, including showroom closures and job cuts at Watches of Switzerland Group [SOURCE - Swissinfo].\nIn France, President Emmanuel Macron\u0026rsquo;s announcement of potential recognition of a Palestinian state has stirred controversy, drawing criticism from Israel and raising q\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/16/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-8edc/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"new-chinese-trade-negotiator-and-israel-increases-pressure-on-gaza\"\u003eNew Chinese Trade Negotiator and Israel Increases Pressure on Gaza\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇳 \u003cstrong\u003eChina Names New Trade Negotiator Amid Tariff War with US\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eChina has appointed Li Chenggang, former assistant commerce minister and WTO ambassador, to replace veteran negotiator Wang Shouwen as its key trade envoy amid escalating tensions with the United States. The surprise move comes as Beijing faces the impact of Trump\u0026rsquo;s increased tariffs, which recently jumped from 10% to 145%, with China retaliating by raising duties on US goods to 125%. Despite reporting better-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, Chinese officials warned of economic challenges ahead as the tariffs begin to affect exports. A Chinese official criticized the US approach as \u0026ldquo;tariff barriers and trade bullying\u0026rdquo; that \u0026ldquo;violates economic laws\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;has a serious impact on the world economic order.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8jem097l4do\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Diplomats’ Expulsion Increases Algeria-French Tensions Andrew Sheves\nGood morning,\nOne quick headline this morning\n🇩🇿** Diplomats’ Expulsion Increases Algeria-French Tensions**\nAlgeria has ordered 12 French embassy officials to leave the country within 48 hours, escalating diplomatic tensions between the two nations. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot linked the expulsions to Friday\u0026rsquo;s indictment of three Algerians in Paris, including a consular official accused of involvement in the 2024 abduction of Amir Boukhors, a prominent government critic with over one million online followers. The diplomatic row threatens to derail recent reconciliation efforts between the countries, with Barrot warning that France would \u0026ldquo;respond immediately\u0026rdquo; if Algeria proceeds with the expulsions. This incident follows several others straining French-Algerian relations, including Algeria\u0026rsquo;s previous ambassador recall after France supported Morocco\u0026rsquo;s claim to Western Sahara. More - BBC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil is currently navigating a complex economic landscape, capitalizing on trade tensions between the United States and China. The country\u0026rsquo;s coffee exports have surged by 20% year-on-year, as U.S. tariffs create opportunities for Brazilian producers. Additionally, Brazil has seen a remarkable 24% increase in soybean exports to China in the first quarter of 2025, reshaping global trade dynamics [SOURCE - Economic Times].\nIn a notable shift, Brazil\u0026rsquo;s industrial sector has climbed to 25th place globally after decades of decline, signaling a potential resurgence in manufacturing [SOURCE - Rio Times]. However, the reinstatement of visa requirements for U.S., Canadian, and Australian citizens may dampen tourism prospects [SOURCE - Rio Times].\nOn the political front, President Lula\u0026rsquo;s attendance at Moscow\u0026rsquo;s WWII victory celebrations indicates a strengthening of ties with Russia [[SOURCE - RT]](https://www.rt.com/news/615392-brazil-lula-moscow-ww2-celebrations/?utm_source=news.dec\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/15/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-9541/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"diplomats-expulsion-increases-algeria-french-tensions\"\u003eDiplomats’ Expulsion Increases Algeria-French Tensions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning,\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOne quick headline this morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇩🇿** Diplomats’ Expulsion Increases Algeria-French Tensions**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlgeria has ordered 12 French embassy officials to leave the country within 48 hours, escalating diplomatic tensions between the two nations. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot linked the expulsions to Friday\u0026rsquo;s indictment of three Algerians in Paris, including a consular official accused of involvement in the 2024 abduction of Amir Boukhors, a prominent government critic with over one million online followers. The diplomatic row threatens to derail recent reconciliation efforts between the countries, with Barrot warning that France would \u0026ldquo;respond immediately\u0026rdquo; if Algeria proceeds with the expulsions. This incident follows several others straining French-Algerian relations, including Algeria\u0026rsquo;s previous ambassador recall after France supported Morocco\u0026rsquo;s claim to Western Sahara. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62xw575w9yo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"New President in Gabon, 30+ Killed in Russian Missile Strike in Ukraine and Israel Hits Gaza\u0026rsquo;s Last Hospital. Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\n🇬🇦 Gabon Coup Leader Wins Presidency\nGeneral Brice Oligui Nguema has won Gabon\u0026rsquo;s presidential election with an overwhelming 90.4% of votes, solidifying his grip on power nearly two years after overthrowing his cousin Ali Bongo. Campaigning on promises to reduce youth unemployment through economic diversification beyond oil dependency, Nguema has pledged to grow GDP by 7% annually while adding domestic value to the country\u0026rsquo;s natural resources. Despite his promises to attract foreign investment, Nguema has taken steps to increase state control over the economy, including using preemptive rights to block the sale of Assala Energy and taking controlling stakes in timber operations. Investors remain concerned about Gabon\u0026rsquo;s widening budget deficit, which the IMF expects to reach 6.5% of GDP this year with public debt climbing to 80% of GDP. More - Bloomberg\n🇺🇦 Russian Missile Strike Kills Dozens\nAt least 34 people, including two children, were killed and over a hundred wounded when Russian ballistic missiles struck the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations. The attack occurred around 10:15am as people gathered in the city center, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling for a global response and emphasizing that \u0026ldquo;Russian strikes deserve nothing but condemnation.\u0026rdquo; The assault took place as the US, under President Trump, has intensified ceasefire efforts, with Trump\u0026rsquo;s special envoy to Ukraine condemning the strike as crossing \u0026ldquo;any line of decency.\u0026rdquo; European leaders including French President Macron, Germany\u0026rsquo;s incoming Chancellor Merz, and British Prime Minister Starmer have strongly condemned the attack, with Macron stating \u0026ldquo;Everyone knows it is Russia alone that wants this war.\u0026rdquo; More - Aljazeera\n🇵🇸 Israel Strikes Last Functional Gaza City Hospital\nAn Israeli air strike has destroyed critical sections of al Ahli Arab Hospital, the last fully functioning hospital in Gaza City, targeting what the Israel Defense Forces claimed was a \u0026ldquo;command and control center used by Hamas.\u0026rdquo; The strike demolished the intensive care and surgery departments, forcing evacuation of patients with only 20 minutes\u0026rsquo; warning, during which one child with a previous head injury died. The Episcopal Diocese of Jerusalem, which runs the hospital, expressed outrage at the bombing \u0026ldquo;on the morning of Palm Sunday and the beginning of Holy Week,\u0026rdquo; while WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus emphasized that \u0026ldquo;hospitals are protected under international humanitarian law\u0026rdquo; as the facility was rendered out of service. More - BBC\n🚢** US Reliance on China**\nThe Financial Times has a good explainer of which Chinese-made goods the US is most dependent on. [Full Article - FT](https://www.ft.com/content/ec96e2ed-5dd6-4c6b-92a0-1b77bf517b36?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;ut\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/14/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-4c78/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"new-president-in-gabon-30-killed-in-russian-missile-strike-in-ukraine-and-israel-hits-gazas-last-hospital\"\u003eNew President in Gabon, 30+ Killed in Russian Missile Strike in Ukraine and Israel Hits Gaza\u0026rsquo;s Last Hospital.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇬🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eGabon Coup Leader Wins Presidency\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGeneral Brice Oligui Nguema has won Gabon\u0026rsquo;s presidential election with an overwhelming 90.4% of votes, solidifying his grip on power nearly two years after overthrowing his cousin Ali Bongo. Campaigning on promises to reduce youth unemployment through economic diversification beyond oil dependency, Nguema has pledged to grow GDP by 7% annually while adding domestic value to the country\u0026rsquo;s natural resources. Despite his promises to attract foreign investment, Nguema has taken steps to increase state control over the economy, including using preemptive rights to block the sale of Assala Energy and taking controlling stakes in timber operations. Investors remain concerned about Gabon\u0026rsquo;s widening budget deficit, which the IMF expects to reach 6.5% of GDP this year with public debt climbing to 80% of GDP. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-13/coup-leader-wins-gabon-election-with-pledge-to-end-oil-reliance\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Gaza Buffer Zones Expand, US Markets Resume Losses Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo quick headlines before you head into the weekend.\n🇵🇸** Israel Expands Gaza Buffer Zones**\nIsrael will expand its \u0026ldquo;security zones\u0026rdquo; in Gaza to include Rafah and surrounding areas, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz during a visit to troops deployed between Rafah and Khan Younis. Katz stated the military is deliberately leaving Gaza \u0026ldquo;smaller\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;more isolated\u0026rdquo; to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining hostages, adding that \u0026ldquo;all of Rafah will be evacuated and turned into a security area.\u0026rdquo; The UN reports that approximately two-thirds of Gaza is now designated as \u0026ldquo;no-go\u0026rdquo; zones or under evacuation orders since Israel resumed its offensive in March, with 390,000 Palestinians displaced once again and humanitarian aid deliveries blocked since March 2. More - BBC\n](https://x.com/gazamaps/status/1910042018077913209)Gaza Evacuation Areas via Gaza Mapx on x.com\n🇺🇸** Thursday Markets Continue Losses Despite Trade Pause**\nUS stocks reversed Wednesday\u0026rsquo;s record-breaking rally despite Trump\u0026rsquo;s attempt to calm investors, with the S\u0026amp;P 500 falling 3.5% as investors reassessed the impact of escalating US-China trade tensions. Economic concerns intensified after the White House confirmed US tariffs on China had increased to 145%, negating optimism from Trump\u0026rsquo;s previous 90-day tariff pause for other nations. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio expressed that recent market turmoil left investors with \u0026ldquo;an element of trauma or shock or fear,\u0026rdquo; noting the situation \u0026ldquo;dramatically affected psychology and attitude about the United States\u0026rsquo; reliability.\u0026rdquo; More - Bloomberg\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania\nRegional News Summary In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), diplomatic efforts are underway to address ongoing conflicts. The DRC government has engaged in talks with M23 rebels in Qatar, aiming to find a resolution to the violence that has plagued the region. Concurrently, a US envoy has been collaborating with former President Donald Trump to establish a mineral deal with the DRC, which could bolster the country\u0026rsquo;s economy [[SOURCE - BBC News]](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp34140qkw0o?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;u\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/11/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-df2c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"gaza-buffer-zones-expand-us-markets-resume-losses\"\u003eGaza Buffer Zones Expand, US Markets Resume Losses\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo quick headlines before you head into the weekend.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸** Israel Expands Gaza Buffer Zones**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael will expand its \u0026ldquo;security zones\u0026rdquo; in Gaza to include Rafah and surrounding areas, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz during a visit to troops deployed between Rafah and Khan Younis. Katz stated the military is deliberately leaving Gaza \u0026ldquo;smaller\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;more isolated\u0026rdquo; to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining hostages, adding that \u0026ldquo;all of Rafah will be evacuated and turned into a security area.\u0026rdquo; The UN reports that approximately two-thirds of Gaza is now designated as \u0026ldquo;no-go\u0026rdquo; zones or under evacuation orders since Israel resumed its offensive in March, with 390,000 Palestinians displaced once again and humanitarian aid deliveries blocked since March 2. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg2n029lzgo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Chinese Troops in Ukraine, Tariffs Pause (For Some\u0026hellip;) Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇨🇳** Chinese Soldiers Captured in Ukraine**\nUkraine has captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia in the Donetsk region, with President Zelensky claiming intelligence suggests \u0026ldquo;much higher\u0026rdquo; numbers of Chinese soldiers in Russia\u0026rsquo;s forces. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha summoned China\u0026rsquo;s envoy in Kyiv, stating that Chinese troops on Ukrainian soil \u0026ldquo;puts into question China\u0026rsquo;s declared stance for peace.\u0026rdquo; Beijing responded it was \u0026ldquo;verifying the relevant situation\u0026rdquo; while calling Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s accusation of additional Chinese involvement \u0026ldquo;groundless,\u0026rdquo; maintaining that it consistently urges its citizens to avoid armed conflicts. More - BBC\n🇺🇸** Tariffs On, Tariffs Off…**\nPresident Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs that took effect just 13 hours earlier against dozens of trade partners, while simultaneously raising duties on China to 125%. The dramatic reversal came after markets plunged and recession fears mounted, with Trump acknowledging he was influenced by bond market instability. Financial markets responded immediately with the S\u0026amp;P 500 surging 9.5% in its best rally since 2008, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized the pivot as a strategic win that \u0026ldquo;created maximum negotiating leverage\u0026rdquo; in upcoming trade talks with nations including Vietnam, Japan, India and South Korea. More - Bloomberg\nComment* - the US markets surged on this news, arguably pulling the US back from the brink of a bear market and recession-terrority. However, for businesses and manufacturers, enormous uncertainty remains with respect to what the eventual tariffs will look like and what other changes might lie ahead. Tonight’s euphoria on Wall Street is far from the end of this drama.*\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇲🇻 Maldives\nAsia Regional News Summary Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy is bracing for turbulence as the global trade war escalates, with Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong warning of \u0026ldquo;rough waters\u0026rdquo; ahead. The government is reassessing its growth forecast in light of new U.S. tariffs, which have already caused a significant drop in the stock market, with shares plunging more than 7% due to tariff fears. Prime Minister Wong has urged the nation to prepare for further shocks as the impact of these tariffs unfolds [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nIn response to the growing demand for data st\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/10/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-7731/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"chinese-troops-in-ukraine-tariffs-pause-for-some\"\u003eChinese Troops in Ukraine, Tariffs Pause (For Some\u0026hellip;)\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇳** Chinese Soldiers Captured in Ukraine**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUkraine has captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia in the Donetsk region, with President Zelensky claiming intelligence suggests \u0026ldquo;much higher\u0026rdquo; numbers of Chinese soldiers in Russia\u0026rsquo;s forces. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha summoned China\u0026rsquo;s envoy in Kyiv, stating that Chinese troops on Ukrainian soil \u0026ldquo;puts into question China\u0026rsquo;s declared stance for peace.\u0026rdquo; Beijing responded it was \u0026ldquo;verifying the relevant situation\u0026rdquo; while calling Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s accusation of additional Chinese involvement \u0026ldquo;groundless,\u0026rdquo; maintaining that it consistently urges its citizens to avoid armed conflicts. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2vg1x7g32o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"UN chief Condemns Gaza Blockade and Dozens Killed in Dominican Republic Nightclub Accident Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇵🇸** UN Chief Condemns Gaza Blockade**\nUN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has denounced Israel\u0026rsquo;s month-long aid blockade of Gaza, calling the territory \u0026ldquo;a killing field\u0026rdquo; where \u0026ldquo;civilians are in an endless death loop.\u0026rdquo; Guterres rejected Israel\u0026rsquo;s proposal to control aid deliveries, stating the UN \u0026ldquo;will not participate in any arrangement that does not fully respect humanitarian principles.\u0026rdquo; During a visit to El Arish, French President Emmanuel Macron joined Egypt\u0026rsquo;s President el-Sisi and Jordan\u0026rsquo;s King Abdullah II in calling for an immediate return to a ceasefire as humanitarian conditions deteriorate for Gaza\u0026rsquo;s 2.3 million residents. More - Aljazeera\n🇩🇴** Nightclub Roof Kills Dozens in Santo Domingo**\nAt least 66 people have died and more than 150 were injured when the roof of the Jet Set nightclub collapsed during a concert in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Former MLB pitcher Octavio Dotel and Monte Cristi province governor Nelsy Cruz were among those killed, while popular merengue singer Rubby Pérez was reported trapped in the rubble. The disaster occurred around 1am during a crowded Monday evening concert, with approximately 400 rescuers still searching for survivors amid fears the death toll could rise further. More - BBC\nWe had a great response to last week’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. (In case you missed it, the full announcement is here)\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary The Swiss government has opted not to retaliate against the latest round of tariffs imposed by the United States, which includes a significant 31% import duty on certain Swiss goods. This decision has raised concerns among the Swiss business community, particularly within the pharmaceutical sector, which could face steep tariffs on their products in the US market [[SOURCE - Le News]](https://lenews.ch/2025/04/05/swiss-government-decides-against-a-direct-response-to-us-tariffs/\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/09/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-2b39/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"un-chief-condemns-gaza-blockade-and-dozens-killed-in-dominican-republic-nightclub-accident\"\u003eUN chief Condemns Gaza Blockade and Dozens Killed in Dominican Republic Nightclub Accident\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸** UN Chief Condemns Gaza Blockade**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has denounced Israel\u0026rsquo;s month-long aid blockade of Gaza, calling the territory \u0026ldquo;a killing field\u0026rdquo; where \u0026ldquo;civilians are in an endless death loop.\u0026rdquo; Guterres rejected Israel\u0026rsquo;s proposal to control aid deliveries, stating the UN \u0026ldquo;will not participate in any arrangement that does not fully respect humanitarian principles.\u0026rdquo; During a visit to El Arish, French President Emmanuel Macron joined Egypt\u0026rsquo;s President el-Sisi and Jordan\u0026rsquo;s King Abdullah II in calling for an immediate return to a ceasefire as humanitarian conditions deteriorate for Gaza\u0026rsquo;s 2.3 million residents. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/8/un-chief-says-palestinians-in-gaza-in-death-loop-demands-end-to-blockade\"\u003eMore - Aljazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Algeria Mali Tensions, US Iran Talks (Maybe) Andrew Sheves\nGood morning\n🇩🇿** / 🇲🇱 Algeria-Mali Tensions**\nAlgeria has closed its airspace to all flights from Mali after shooting down a Malian drone near their shared border, escalating diplomatic tensions between the neighbors. Mali accused Algeria of being a \u0026ldquo;sponsor and exporter of terrorism\u0026rdquo; and described the drone incident as a \u0026ldquo;hostile premeditated action,\u0026rdquo; while Algeria dismissed these allegations as \u0026ldquo;lacking in seriousness\u0026rdquo; that \u0026ldquo;warrant no attention or response.\u0026rdquo; The dispute has deepened regional instability as Mali fights Tuareg separatists along the northern border, with Mali withdrawing from a regional security grouping and recalling its ambassador from Algeria following the incident. More - BBC\n🇮🇷** Trump Claims Direct Iran Talks**\nPresident Trump announced the US is engaging in direct talks with Iran scheduled for Saturday \u0026ldquo;at almost the highest level,\u0026rdquo; contradicting Tehran\u0026rsquo;s explicit rejection of direct negotiations. Iranian officials had instead proposed \u0026ldquo;indirect negotiations through Oman\u0026rdquo; as mediator, calling their offer \u0026ldquo;responsible, generous, and wise.\u0026rdquo; The conflicting statements create diplomatic confusion as Trump warns Iran is entering \u0026ldquo;dangerous territory\u0026rdquo; if talks fail, despite US intelligence assessments that Iran is not currently building nuclear weapons. More - Bloomberg\nMiss last week’s announcement?\nRead about our partnership with HumanRisks here\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇺🇾 Uruguay, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s economy is grappling with significant challenges as international reserves have decreased by $25.3 billion in 2024, reflecting ongoing economic instability. The country is also facing an investment crisis, lagging behind both global and regional peers in attracting foreign capital [SOURCE - Rio Times]. In response to trade tensions with the United States, Brazil\u0026rsquo;s Congress has approved legislation to counter tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, particularly concerned about the impact on its steel exports [[SOURCE - The Hindu]](h\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/08/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-1bb7/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"algeria-mali-tensions-us-iran-talks-maybe\"\u003eAlgeria Mali Tensions, US Iran Talks (Maybe)\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇩🇿** / \u003cstrong\u003e🇲🇱\u003c/strong\u003e Algeria-Mali Tensions**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlgeria has closed its airspace to all flights from Mali after shooting down a Malian drone near their shared border, escalating diplomatic tensions between the neighbors. Mali accused Algeria of being a \u0026ldquo;sponsor and exporter of terrorism\u0026rdquo; and described the drone incident as a \u0026ldquo;hostile premeditated action,\u0026rdquo; while Algeria dismissed these allegations as \u0026ldquo;lacking in seriousness\u0026rdquo; that \u0026ldquo;warrant no attention or response.\u0026rdquo; The dispute has deepened regional instability as Mali fights Tuareg separatists along the northern border, with Mali withdrawing from a regional security grouping and recalling its ambassador from Algeria following the incident. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c045zp1l3nko\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\n⤵️ Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns\nGlobal markets tumbled Monday as the Trump administration doubled down on its tariff strategy despite the $5.4 trillion selloff last week. Asian shares fell as much as 7.9%, with Hong Kong\u0026rsquo;s Hang Seng plunging over 10% and Taiwan\u0026rsquo;s index suffering its worst drop on record. President Trump remained defiant, saying \u0026ldquo;sometimes you have to take medicine\u0026rdquo; while Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed recession fears and claimed \u0026ldquo;the market consistently underestimates Donald Trump.\u0026rdquo; Trump\u0026rsquo;s economic team insisted the tariffs will make America \u0026ldquo;wealthy like never before\u0026rdquo; despite warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Powell about higher inflation and economists predicting a recession. Even Trump supporter Bill Ackman criticized the policy, warning \u0026ldquo;the president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe.\u0026rdquo; More - Bloomberg\nGlobal Stability Ratings Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/07/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-361b/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"global-market-plunge-continues-as-trump-officials-dismiss-tariff-concerns\"\u003eGlobal Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e⤵️ Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGlobal markets tumbled Monday as the Trump administration doubled down on its tariff strategy despite the $5.4 trillion selloff last week. Asian shares fell as much as 7.9%, with Hong Kong\u0026rsquo;s Hang Seng plunging over 10% and Taiwan\u0026rsquo;s index suffering its worst drop on record. President Trump remained defiant, saying \u0026ldquo;sometimes you have to take medicine\u0026rdquo; while Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed recession fears and claimed \u0026ldquo;the market consistently underestimates Donald Trump.\u0026rdquo; Trump\u0026rsquo;s economic team insisted the tariffs will make America \u0026ldquo;wealthy like never before\u0026rdquo; despite warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Powell about higher inflation and economists predicting a recession. Even Trump supporter Bill Ackman criticized the policy, warning \u0026ldquo;the president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/global-market-meltdown-deepens-as-trump-holds-firm-on-tariffs\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"US Tariffs Cause Market Drops and Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo quick headlines before you head into the weekend.\n🔻** Liberation Day Causes Markets to Plunge**\nUS stocks suffered their worst plunge since the pandemic, with the S\u0026amp;P 500 dropping 4.8% and erasing $2.5 trillion in value as Trump\u0026rsquo;s new tariffs sparked recession fears. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, with tech giants like Apple (-9%), Tesla, and Nvidia taking heavy hits, while retail and manufacturing stocks plummeted—Nike tumbled 14% and luxury furnishing company RH crashed 40%. Bond traders boosted bets on Fed rate cuts as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%, with analysts warning tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 2 percentage points while pushing inflation to 5%. More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸** Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza**\nIsrael is expanding military operations to \u0026ldquo;seize large areas\u0026rdquo; of Gaza and establish new security zones, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the creation of an additional security corridor called Morag that will further divide Gaza between Rafah and Khan Younis. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum criticized the move, asking if the government was \u0026ldquo;sacrificing hostages for capturing land\u0026rdquo; instead of securing their release through negotiations. Meanwhile, humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate, with the World Food Program announcing that all its supported bakeries have closed due to lack of fuel and flour, and its final food parcels will be depleted by Thursday. More - Washington Post\nMore Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nAfrica News Summary In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Pakistan has urged the United Nations Security Council to adopt a dialogue-based approach to resolving the ongoing conflict, emphasizing that military solutions are inadequate. This call for dialogue coincides with planned direct talks between the Congolese government and M23 rebels, scheduled for April 9, which could represent a pivotal moment in efforts to end the violence [SOURCE - Associated Press of Pakistan] [[SOURCE - SABC News]](https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/congo-and-m23-rebels-plan-to-hold-first-direct-talks-on-april-9/?\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/04/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-32dd/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-tariffs-cause-market-drops-and-israel-expands-territorial-control-in-gaza\"\u003eUS Tariffs Cause Market Drops and Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo quick headlines before you head into the weekend.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🔻** Liberation Day Causes Markets to Plunge**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUS stocks suffered their worst plunge since the pandemic, with the S\u0026amp;P 500 dropping 4.8% and erasing $2.5 trillion in value as Trump\u0026rsquo;s new tariffs sparked recession fears. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, with tech giants like Apple (-9%), Tesla, and Nvidia taking heavy hits, while retail and manufacturing stocks plummeted—Nike tumbled 14% and luxury furnishing company RH crashed 40%. Bond traders boosted bets on Fed rate cuts as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%, with analysts warning tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 2 percentage points while pushing inflation to 5%. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/s-p-500-tumbles-as-tariff-war-ignites-growth-fears\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Annoiuncement: Shock and Ongoing Uncertainty Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n(C) Bill Waterson\nComment - Today’s news will be full of coverage of the immediate effect of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, but three big elements stood out while listening to the ceremony:\n1 - The basis for the individual charges was unclear based on the President’s remarks, which included a range of reasons. (Note - The actual calculation released by the USTR is a completely different rationale than the one the President cited and has done little to assuage economists.)\n2 - The point of the tariffs remains unclear. These have been described as:\nThe opening positions for negotiations to force other countries to lower tariffs\nEnduring import taxes to raise revenue\nA technique to force manufacturing onshore\nAll three cannot be true.\n3 - Markets around the world hated the news and there was a notable absence of CEOs and business leaders celebrating the announcement. JP Morgan issued the note below shortly after the ceremony.\nOverall, this means that a huge amount of uncertainty remains making it difficult, if not impossible, for businesses to know what to do with respect to supply chains and mid- to long-term planning. Lots of pro-Trump commentators are saying that businesses need to wait and see what the rules of the game are, but that was what yesterday was supposed to be: instead, we have global macroeconomic Calvinball.\nOn to the headlines\n💥** ‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Shock**\nPresident Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on global trading partners, including a baseline 10% duty on all exporters and substantially higher rates for approximately 60 nations with large trade imbalances with the US. China faces the steepest tariff at 54%, while the EU will see 20% and Vietnam 46%. Trump exempted Canada and Mexico as long as existing 25% tariffs tied to drug trafficking and migration remain in effect, along with exemptions for certain goods covered by USMCA. Markets reacted negatively, with equity benchmarks falling 2% or more despite previous rallies based on hopes for more lenient measures. More - Bloomberg\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇸🇬 Singapor\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/03/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-d38e/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"liberation-day-tariff-annoiuncement-shock-and-ongoing-uncertainty\"\u003e‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Annoiuncement: Shock and Ongoing Uncertainty\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(C) Bill Waterson\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eComment\u003c/strong\u003e - Today’s news will be full of coverage of the immediate effect of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, but three big elements stood out while listening to the ceremony:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1 - The basis for the individual charges was unclear based on the President’s remarks, which included a range of reasons. (Note - \u003ca href=\"https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations\"\u003eThe actual calculation released by the USTR\u003c/a\u003e is a completely different rationale than the one the President cited and has done little to assuage economists.)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan, Liberation Day Arrives but Details Still Shrouded in Secrecy, Chinese FM Visits Moscow Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nWe had a great response to yesterday’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. Thanks for all the kind notes. (In case you missed it, the full announcement is here)\nThree headlines to start your day.\n🇹🇼 China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan\nChina conducted a second day of \u0026ldquo;Strait Thunder-2025A\u0026rdquo; military exercises around Taiwan, simulating attacks on key ports and energy facilities with live-fire drills. China deployed the Shandong aircraft carrier group, with Taiwan reporting 76 Chinese military aircraft and 19 naval vessels in its vicinity over a 24-hour period. President William Lai condemned the exercises as \u0026ldquo;blatant military provocations\u0026rdquo; that threaten regional security, while Beijing continues to signal its determination to eventually unify with Taiwan either peacefully or by force. More - Al Jazeera\n🇺🇸** ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Commence at 4:00pm ET**\nPresident Trump\u0026rsquo;s sweeping new tariffs will take immediate effect following his Rose Garden announcement scheduled for 4:00pm ET, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. While specific rates remain undisclosed, Trump indicated they would be \u0026ldquo;lower than what they\u0026rsquo;ve been charging us\u0026rdquo; and that he\u0026rsquo;s open to negotiations with foreign governments. The White House dismissed concerns about market volatility, with Leavitt confidently stating the economic strategy \u0026ldquo;is going to work\u0026rdquo; despite weeks of stock selloffs. More - Bloomberg\n🇷🇺** + 🇨🇳 Chinese Foreign Minister Affirms Ties with Moscow**\nChinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with President Putin in Moscow, declaring the countries are \u0026ldquo;friends forever, never enemies\u0026rdquo; while discussing Ukraine peace efforts. Wang welcomed signs of normalizing US-Russia relations, a day after the Kremlin confirmed working on potential Ukraine peace ideas with the US. Putin announced preparations for Xi Jinping\u0026rsquo;s symbolic visit to Moscow\u0026rsquo;s Victory Day parade in May, marking the 80th anniversary of Nazi Germany\u0026rsquo;s defeat. More - Al Jazeera\nLearn more about HumanRisks at humanrisks.com Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France,\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/02/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-b0ac/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"china-simulates-attacks-on-taiwan-liberation-day-arrives-but-details-still-shrouded-in-secrecy-chinese-fm-visits-moscow\"\u003eChina Simulates Attacks on Taiwan, Liberation Day Arrives but Details Still Shrouded in Secrecy, Chinese FM Visits Moscow\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe had a great response to yesterday’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. Thanks for all the kind notes. \u003cem\u003e(In case you missed it, \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/2025/04/01/partnership-with-humanrisks/\"\u003ethe full announcement is here\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e)\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree headlines to start your day.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇹🇼 \u003cstrong\u003eChina Simulates Attacks on Taiwan\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Decis + HumanRisks We\u0026rsquo;re excited to announce our new partnership with HumanRisks (humanrisks.com).\nWe’re integrating the Decis Country Intelligence feed directly into their comprehensive security risk management platform as a fully embedded data feed. This integration will provide security managers and asset owners with immediate access to Decis country risk ratings, directional assessments, and key news summaries—essential contextual information for making informed security decisions.\nThe integration goes live on April 1st and will be available to both existing and new HumanRisks users on a trial basis.\nMads and the team at HumanRisks have built an exceptional platform over the years so we’re incredibly proud to become part of their journey, to offer the Decis intelligence products to their thousands of global users and join the other impressive integrations they support.\nAbout Human Risks: Human Risks is an end-to-end security risk management platform comprising of eight core integrated modules alongside tailored integrations and solutions designed for specific customer use cases. Built specifically to support and scale security teams’ workflows across complex operating environments and asset footprints, Human Risks is deployed across more than 7000+ sites globally in industries ranging from shipping \u0026amp; logistics, pharmaceuticals, banking and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). Learn more at humanrisks.com\nAbout Decis: Decis Intelligence Provides Refined Insights and Intelligence at speed and scale for Risk, Finance and Security Decision-makers. Combining the power of advanced ML and AI with decades of experience in commercial risk and intelligence, Decis provides organisations with the quality insights and intelligence required to make informed decisions up to 100x faster than traditional processes. Importantly, we meet the user where they are, providing a series of different products and integrations that allow seamless integration into a user\u0026rsquo;s decision-making process or existing systems. We enable better decisions, faster. Learn more at decis.ai\nAbout the Decis Intelligence Feed: The Decis Country Intelligence Engine delivers comprehensive country stability evaluations based on both current events and historical trends across eight critical stability factors: Democratic Integrity, Political Equilibrium, Law \u0026amp; Order, Quality of Life, Environmental Hazards, International Relations, Economic Resilience, and Internal Social Harmony.\nOur engine employs sophisticated AI analysis to evaluate over 500 stability markers drawn from 20 years of geopolitical analysis experience. These markers span from indicators of high stability (such as \u0026ldquo;Free and fair elections\u0026rdquo;) to signals of critical instability (like \u0026ldquo;Government collapse\u0026rdquo;). For technical specifications, visit our Github page: https://github.com/agsheves/Decis-Country-Data-API\nCarpe Tomorrow! 🚀\nDecis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/01/partnership-with-humanrisks/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"decis--humanrisks\"\u003eDecis + HumanRisks\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe\u0026rsquo;re excited to announce our new partnership with HumanRisks (\u003ca href=\"https://humanrisks.com\"\u003ehumanrisks.com\u003c/a\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe’re integrating the Decis Country Intelligence feed directly into their comprehensive security risk management platform as a fully embedded data feed. This integration will provide security managers and asset owners with immediate access to Decis country risk ratings, directional assessments, and key news summaries—essential contextual information for making informed security decisions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe integration goes live on April 1st and will be available to both existing and new HumanRisks users on a trial basis.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis Partners with HumanRisks"},{"content":"Le Pen Barred from Politics, Uncertainty over Liberation Day Tariffs and Haggis Hunt Disruption. Andrew Sheves\nGood morning and happy April Fool’s Day. I’m glad to say the big announcement below is 100% real….\nBut first, some headlines to get you started.\n🇫🇷 Le Pen Barred From Public Office\nMarine Le Pen has been barred from holding public office for five years after being found guilty of embezzling EU funds, likely eliminating her from the 2027 French presidential race. While she plans to appeal, this verdict throws her National Rally party into disarray, with 29-year-old Jordan Bardella potentially becoming the alternative candidate. The ruling could initially boost support among her base who view it as systemic persecution but may weaken the party\u0026rsquo;s long-term prospects. More - BBC\n🇺🇸** Uncertainty Remains Over ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs**\nTomorrow is ‘Liberation Day’: the day when President Trump will announce the long-awaited tariffs, but despite it being less than 24 hours away, there’s no more clarity on what might arise than there was weeks ago. Bloomberg has a good ‘Big Take’ Article on the history of tariffs and some high-level observations on what the tariffs mean, irrespective of the exact targets and levies.\n🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿** Opening Day of Haggis Season Disrupted by Animal Rights Protestors**\nAnimal rights protestors in Scotland disrupted the annual opening day of haggis season today, claiming the annual hunt was “barbaric and cruel”. Protestors stormed moors and hillsides across Scotland’s glens at dawn on Tuesday, disrupting the traditional ‘flushing of the haggi’ which signifies the beginning of haggis season. This event illustrates how traditional ways of life are under threat in Scotland but the disruption of haggis hunting is a major economic issue: 43% of Scotland’s economy relates to haggis sales or haggis-related events. More Bagpipes\nAnnouncing our New Partnership with HumanRisks We\u0026rsquo;re excited to announce our new partnership with HumanRisks (humanrisks.com). We’re integrating the Decis Country Intelligence feed directly into their comprehensive security risk management platform as a fully embedded data feed. This integration will provide security managers and asset owners with immediate access to Decis country risk ratings, directional assessments, and key news summaries—essential contextual information for making informed security decisions.\nThe integration goes live on April 1st and will be available to both existing and new HumanRisks users on a trial basis.\nMads and the team at HumanRi\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/04/01/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-4744/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"le-pen-barred-from-politics-uncertainty-over-liberation-day-tariffs-and-haggis-hunt-disruption\"\u003eLe Pen Barred from Politics, Uncertainty over Liberation Day Tariffs and Haggis Hunt Disruption.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning and happy April Fool’s Day. I’m glad to say the big announcement below is 100% real….\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut first, some headlines to get you started.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇫🇷 \u003cstrong\u003eLe Pen Barred From Public Office\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMarine Le Pen has been barred from holding public office for five years after being found guilty of embezzling EU funds, likely eliminating her from the 2027 French presidential race. While she plans to appeal, this verdict throws her National Rally party into disarray, with 29-year-old Jordan Bardella potentially becoming the alternative candidate. The ruling could initially boost support among her base who view it as systemic persecution but may weaken the party\u0026rsquo;s long-term prospects. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy0ylgjew1xo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Eid Attacks in Gaza, Over 1,700 Feared Dead in Myanmar Leading to Calls for Ceasefire Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\nSadly, some grim headlines to start the week.\n🇵🇸** Gaza Eid Attacks**\nIsraeli airstrikes killed at least 35 Palestinians during Eid al-Fitr celebrations in Rafah and Khan Younis as Netanyahu maintained demands for Hamas to disarm and leave Gaza. The Palestine Red Crescent recovered 15 medical workers\u0026rsquo; bodies following an Israeli attack, while humanitarian conditions deteriorate with aid deliveries halted since early March and ceasefire prospects appearing remote. More - Al Jazeera\nNote* - there is less coverage in the mainstream press but there are several stories on social media recounting how Hamas is now violently cracking down on recent protests with several protest leaders having been abducted, tortured and killed. This is likely to have snuffed out the nascent anti-Hamas protests that sprung up last week.*\n🇲🇲** Myanmar Quake: 1,700 Dead, Ceasefire Calls**\nMyanmar\u0026rsquo;s rebel People\u0026rsquo;s Defence Force declared a two-week ceasefire in earthquake-affected areas to facilitate aid delivery as the death toll reached approximately 1,700, with 3,400 injured and nearly 300 missing. The 7.7-magnitude quake—Myanmar\u0026rsquo;s largest in a century—prompted the military junta to request international assistance while telecommunications disruptions hamper rescue efforts in Mandalay and surrounding areas. More - Bloomberg\n**Want to include these ratings in your own system? **\n](https://api.decis.ai/)[Get your free API key here](https://api.decis.ai) and you’ll be set up in a couple of minutes\nKey Metrics WTI is $69.46 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nWheat is $190.103 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nEuroDollar is $1.08 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026ndash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Mar 30 2025 20:11 UTC\nGlobal Stability Ratings Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medi\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/31/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-ec1b/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"eid-attacks-in-gaza-over-1700-feared-dead-in-myanmar-leading-to-calls-for-ceasefire\"\u003eEid Attacks in Gaza, Over 1,700 Feared Dead in Myanmar Leading to Calls for Ceasefire\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSadly, some grim headlines to start the week.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸** Gaza Eid Attacks**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsraeli airstrikes killed at least 35 Palestinians during Eid al-Fitr celebrations in Rafah and Khan Younis as Netanyahu maintained demands for Hamas to disarm and leave Gaza. The Palestine Red Crescent recovered 15 medical workers\u0026rsquo; bodies following an Israeli attack, while humanitarian conditions deteriorate with aid deliveries halted since early March and ceasefire prospects appearing remote. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/30/israeli-air-attacks-kill-dozens-in-gaza-as-palestinians-mark-eid-al-fitr\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Myanmar Earthquake. New Details on Ukrainian Minerals Deal, Arctic Cooperation Offer and N Korea\u0026rsquo;s S Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nBreaking - Massive Earthquake Hits Myanmar\nA powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar earlier today, causing widespread damage. Strong tremors were felt in neighboring Vietnam and Thailand, and at least one building collapsed in Bangkok. Myanmar is closed to foreign press making reporting difficult but the BBC has a Live Feed here\n🇺🇦 US Demands First Rights to Ukraine’s Reconstruction Investments\nThe US is seeking control over future Ukrainian infrastructure and mineral investments through a revised partnership deal demanding \u0026ldquo;right of first offer\u0026rdquo; on all projects. If accepted, Washington would gain unprecedented economic influence in Ukraine, potentially complicating Kyiv\u0026rsquo;s EU membership bid and requiring Ukraine to repay all previous US military aid before receiving income from joint investments. President Zelenskiy indicated the agreement needs \u0026ldquo;detailed study\u0026rdquo; while emphasizing continued support for US cooperation. More - Bloomberg\n🇷🇺** Russia Offers Arctic Cooperation**\nRussian President Vladimir Putin expressed willingness to cooperate with Western partners on Arctic economic ventures despite intensifying geopolitical tensions in the region. During a major speech Thursday, Putin acknowledged US President Trump\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;serious\u0026rdquo; intention to acquire Greenland while voicing concern about NATO\u0026rsquo;s expanding northern presence through Finland and Sweden. Putin emphasized Russia\u0026rsquo;s commitment to developing Arctic infrastructure and the Northern Sea Route while building military capabilities to protect Russian sovereignty in the resource-rich region. More - Al Jazeera\n💥 North Korea Unveils AI-Controlled Suicide Drones\nNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un has inspected new suicide drones reportedly equipped with artificial intelligence, according to state media KCNA. Analysts suggest the technology likely benefited from Russian assistance, highlighting the deepening military relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow. Kim also unveiled what appears to be North Korea\u0026rsquo;s first airborne early-warning aircraft, with South Korean officials noting it would take time to evaluate its effectiveness and that components may have Russian connections. More - BBC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Su\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/28/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-1586/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"myanmar-earthquake-new-details-on-ukrainian-minerals-deal-arctic-cooperation-offer-and-n-koreas-s\"\u003eMyanmar Earthquake. New Details on Ukrainian Minerals Deal, Arctic Cooperation Offer and N Korea\u0026rsquo;s S\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBreaking - Massive Earthquake Hits Myanmar\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar earlier today, causing widespread damage. Strong tremors were felt in neighboring Vietnam and Thailand, and at least one building collapsed in Bangkok. Myanmar is closed to foreign press making reporting difficult but the \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4gex01m7n5t\"\u003eBBC has a Live Feed here\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Bolsonaro to Stand Trial and Trump Slaps 25% Tariff on Car Imports Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo stories to set you up for the day.\n🇧🇷** Brazil Court to Try Bolsonaro**\nBrazil\u0026rsquo;s Supreme Court unanimously ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to stand trial on charges of attempting a coup d\u0026rsquo;état after his 2022 election loss. Bolsonaro faces five criminal charges including allegedly attempting to violently abolish democratic rule of law, with Justice Alexandre de Moraes citing the former president\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;systematic effort to cast doubt on electronic voting machines.\u0026rdquo; If convicted in proceedings expected later this year, Bolsonaro could receive a lengthy prison sentence, further complicating his declared intention to run for president again despite being barred from public office until 2030.\nMore - Al Jazeera\n🚗 Trump Auto Tariffs\nPresident Trump signed a proclamation implementing a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and key components effective April 2, expanding his trade war aimed at bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US. The tariffs will apply to non-US content in vehicles, with importers under the USMCA agreement able to certify US content for partial exemptions. While UAW President Shawn Fain applauded the move, industry groups warned the tariffs would increase prices and reduce consumer options, with analysts estimating vehicles could cost thousands more. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called the tariffs a \u0026ldquo;direct attack\u0026rdquo; on auto workers and promised retaliation.\nMore - Bloomberg\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nAsia News Summary In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has highlighted the resilience of the economy amid global cost pressures, announcing government support measures to alleviate the burden on citizens. However, the luxury car market has taken a hit following a money-laundering scandal, leading to a notable decline in sales. To stimulate economic growth, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) has partnered with HitPay to facilitate UPI payments at over 12,000 merchants in Singapore, enhancing the digital payment landscape [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nIn the realm of aviation, Singapore Airlines has resumed flights to Heathrow after disruptions caused by a power outage, marking a return to normalcy for travelers [[SOURCE - Channel News Asia]](https\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/27/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-0ccb/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"bolsonaro-to-stand-trial-and-trump-slaps-25-tariff-on-car-imports\"\u003eBolsonaro to Stand Trial and Trump Slaps 25% Tariff on Car Imports\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo stories to set you up for the day.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇧🇷** Brazil Court to Try Bolsonaro**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBrazil\u0026rsquo;s Supreme Court unanimously ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to stand trial on charges of attempting a coup d\u0026rsquo;état after his 2022 election loss. Bolsonaro faces five criminal charges including allegedly attempting to violently abolish democratic rule of law, with Justice Alexandre de Moraes citing the former president\u0026rsquo;s \u0026ldquo;systematic effort to cast doubt on electronic voting machines.\u0026rdquo; If convicted in proceedings expected later this year, Bolsonaro could receive a lengthy prison sentence, further complicating his declared intention to run for president again despite being barred from public office until 2030.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Black Sea Ceasefire and Anti-Hamas Protests in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo headlines for you today.\n🇺🇦 Black Sea Ceasefire Deal\nRussia and Ukraine agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea through separate deals with the US after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Russia stipulated the ceasefire would only take effect after sanctions against its food and fertilizer trade are lifted, while Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Zelensky called the agreement \u0026ldquo;a step in the right direction\u0026rdquo; but warned his country would seek further sanctions if Moscow violates its commitments. Both sides also agreed to develop measures implementing a ban on attacking each other\u0026rsquo;s energy infrastructure, though accusations of violations emerged shortly after the announcement. More - BBC\n🇵🇸 Gaza Anti-Hamas Protests\nHundreds of Palestinians joined the largest anti-Hamas protest since the Gaza war began, marching through Beit Lahia chanting \u0026ldquo;Hamas out\u0026rdquo; before masked militants forcibly dispersed the demonstration. The protest followed Islamic Jihad rocket launches that triggered Israeli evacuation orders in northern Gaza, with some protesters demanding Hamas \u0026ldquo;step down and listen to the voice of the grieving.\u0026rdquo; While open criticism of Hamas has grown since the war began, the group has ruled Gaza since 2007 and still maintains loyal supporters despite the conflict that has killed over 50,000 Palestinians and displaced most of Gaza\u0026rsquo;s 2.1 million residents. More - BBC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden\nEurope News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economy is currently navigating turbulent waters, prompting the Swiss National Bank to lower its key interest rate to 0.25% in response to global economic uncertainty. This precautionary measure aims to mitigate external pressures on the Swiss economy. Meanwhile, UBS, a major Swiss bank, is contemplating relocating its headquarters abroad due to capital demands, raising concerns about the potential ramifications for the Swiss financial sector [SOURCE - Swissinfo].\nIn trade relations, Switzerland has made strides by approving a free trade agreement with India, which is expected to enhance bilateral trade. Additionally, the Swiss economics minister has expressed a willingness to discuss tariffs with the United States amidst ongoing trade tensions [[SOURCE - Swissinfo]](https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/parliament-approves-free-trade-agreement-with-in\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/26/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-f8f5/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"black-sea-ceasefire-and-anti-hamas-protests-in-gaza\"\u003eBlack Sea Ceasefire and Anti-Hamas Protests in Gaza\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo headlines for you today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eBlack Sea Ceasefire Deal\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia and Ukraine agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea through separate deals with the US after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Russia stipulated the ceasefire would only take effect after sanctions against its food and fertilizer trade are lifted, while Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Zelensky called the agreement \u0026ldquo;a step in the right direction\u0026rdquo; but warned his country would seek further sanctions if Moscow violates its commitments. Both sides also agreed to develop measures implementing a ban on attacking each other\u0026rsquo;s energy infrastructure, though accusations of violations emerged shortly after the announcement. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y2nvezdnwo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"One week out from US \u0026lsquo;Liberation Day\u0026rsquo; and Burundi Accuses Rwanda of Attack Plot Andrew Sheves\nGood morning.\nNext Wednesday is ‘Liberation Day’: the day when the off-again, on-again US tariffs are imposed across the board but the administration continues to change and adjust what is or is not potentially being targeted so this Bloomberg tracker is very useful. Meanwhile, in addition to the complexities of reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is also threatening ‘secondary tariffs’.\n🚢 Secondary Tariffs: Trump\u0026rsquo;s New Trade Weapon\nPresident Trump introduced \u0026ldquo;secondary tariffs\u0026rdquo; on countries buying Venezuelan oil, threatening 25% penalties on US trade with nations that purchase petroleum from the Latin American country. The unprecedented move combines elements of traditional tariffs with secondary sanctions, giving Secretary of State Rubio discretion to implement the penalties starting April 2. The order specifically mentions potential application to China, Hong Kong and Macau, signaling Trump\u0026rsquo;s preference for tariffs over financial sanctions which he believes could harm the dollar. More - Bloomberg\n🇧🇮 Burundi Accuses Rwanda of Attack Plot\nBurundi\u0026rsquo;s President Ndayishimiye accused Rwanda of planning to attack his country and supporting rebel groups, citing \u0026ldquo;credible intelligence\u0026rdquo; in an exclusive BBC interview. He alleged Rwanda organized a 2015 coup attempt against Burundi and currently supports the Red Tabara rebels in a strategy similar to Rwanda\u0026rsquo;s backing of M23 forces in eastern DR Congo. Rwanda dismissed the accusations as \u0026ldquo;surprising,\u0026rdquo; insisting the neighbors are cooperating on border security despite their year-long closed frontier. Ndayishimiye stressed Burundi\u0026rsquo;s preference for dialogue while warning they \u0026ldquo;will not sit idle if attacked.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\nLive Country Data, Connected in Minutes\nWe’re all short of time and one thing I am incredibly focused on with Decis is getting you the information you need as easily and quickly as possible. Why would you have to jump through hoops to set up a data service or wait for the analyst to get you a country brief?\nSo when I built the API, the intent was to make everything as smooth as possible: the sign up, coverage selection, connection to your systems.\nWhat does that mean in reality?\nIt means you can be set up and connected in just a couple of minutes. Here’s how.\nTry the API yourself - api.decis.ai (And if you beat my time, let me know.)\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Hond\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/25/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-c5f9/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"one-week-out-from-us-liberation-day-and-burundi-accuses-rwanda-of-attack-plot\"\u003eOne week out from US \u0026lsquo;Liberation Day\u0026rsquo; and Burundi Accuses Rwanda of Attack Plot\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNext Wednesday is ‘Liberation Day’: the day when the off-again, on-again US tariffs are imposed across the board but the administration continues to change and adjust what is or is not potentially being targeted so \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/trump-tariffs-tracker/?itm_source=record\u0026amp;itm_campaign=Trump%E2%80%99s_Tariffs\u0026amp;itm_content=Track_the_Tariffs-0\u0026amp;utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;utm_campaign=tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus\"\u003ethis Bloomberg tracker is very useful\u003c/a\u003e. Meanwhile, in addition to the complexities of reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is also threatening ‘secondary tariffs’.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Stability Ratings, Protests in Turkey, Canada\u0026rsquo;s Election set for April 28, and External and Internal Tensions In Israel Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\nThree headlines to help you catch up quickly.\n🇹🇷 ** Anti-Government Protests Sweep Turkey**\nThere were enormous protests across Turkey all weekend following last week’s arrest of Istanbul’s Mayopr and prominent opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu. The charges are viewed by many as fabricated, with the main aim of preventing Imamoglu — a popular leader — from participating in upcoming elections. [More - AlJazeera]\n🇨🇦 Carney Sets Election Date of April 28\nCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called an April 28 election just nine days after taking office, framing the contest around Trump\u0026rsquo;s recent threats to Canadian sovereignty and tariffs against Canadian goods. \u0026ldquo;President Trump claims that Canada isn\u0026rsquo;t a real country. He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen,\u0026rdquo; Carney told reporters, while promising tax cuts. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre holds a slight overall polling lead but trails significantly among voters who prioritize the Trump issue. More - Bloomberg\n🇮🇱** Israel Expands Gaza Operations While Cabinets Targets Attorney General**\nIsrael\u0026rsquo;s Defense Minister Katz ordered the military to \u0026ldquo;seize additional territories\u0026rdquo; in Gaza and threatened permanent occupation if Hamas doesn\u0026rsquo;t release all hostages. The directive followed the breakdown of ceasefire talks and Israel\u0026rsquo;s resumption of bombing, which has killed over 430 Palestinians since Tuesday. Katz claimed Israel would implement \u0026ldquo;President Trump\u0026rsquo;s voluntary transfer plan for Gaza residents,\u0026rdquo; which UN officials have warned could constitute ethnic cleansing under international law. More - BBC\nMeanwhile, Israel\u0026rsquo;s cabinet passed a no-confidence vote against Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, following the dismissal of Shin Bet security chief Ronen Bar two days earlier. Baharav-Miara condemned the vote as an attempt to gain \u0026ldquo;limitless power\u0026rdquo; by weakening judicial oversight, while thousands of protesters demonstrated against what they view as a crackdown on critics of Netanyahu\u0026rsquo;s government. Bar\u0026rsquo;s removal came shortly after Shin Bet released a report acknowledging security failures before Hamas\u0026rsquo;s October 7 attack. More - Al Jazeera\n**Want to include these ratings in your own system? **\n](https://api.decis.ai/)[Get your free API key here](https://api.decis.ai\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/24/monday-sitrep-global-ratings/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"stability-ratings-protests-in-turkey-canadas-election-set-for-april-28-and-external-and-internal-tensions-in-israel\"\u003eStability Ratings, Protests in Turkey, Canada\u0026rsquo;s Election set for April 28, and External and Internal Tensions In Israel\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree headlines to help you catch up quickly.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇹🇷 ** Anti-Government Protests Sweep Turkey**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere were enormous protests across Turkey all weekend following last week’s arrest of Istanbul’s Mayopr and prominent opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu. The charges are viewed by many as fabricated, with the main aim of preventing Imamoglu — a popular leader — from participating in upcoming elections. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/3/23/why-are-there-protests-in-turkiye-what-to-know\"\u003eMore - AlJazeera\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings"},{"content":"Government Retakes Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Heathrow Closure, Hamas Rockets Target Israel Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇸🇩 Government Forces Retake Presidential Palace in Khartoum\nSudanese government forces have retaken the Presidential Palace in Khartoum but the opposition Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still control large parts of the Sudanese capital. [Live coverage - BBC]\n🛬 Heathrow Shuts Down After Nearby Fire\nLondon Heathrow Airport faces unprecedented closure after a nearby electrical substation fire cut power to the hub, forcing cancellations of over 1,300 flights and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. British Airways alone will see 677 flights impacted, and there are likely to be widespread knock-on travel delays for days. More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸 Hamas Fires Rockets into Israel as Gaza Offensive Accelerates\nHamas launched three rockets at Tel Aviv for the first time since Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, with most intercepted or landing in uninhabited areas. Israel has expanded ground operations, establishing a buffer in the Netzarim Corridor between north and south Gaza, while at least 591 Palestinians have been killed since Tuesday when the offensive resumed. Netanyahu insists ceasefire negotiations will continue \u0026ldquo;under fire,\u0026rdquo; while hostage families accuse the government of abandoning their loved ones. More - BBC / Live coverage - AlJazeera\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is currently grappling with a significant humanitarian crisis, as an aid group forecasts that the number of forcibly displaced people could surge to 6.7 million by 2025-2026. This alarming prediction coincides with the withdrawal of troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), both of which have concluded their military missions in the eastern DRC due to a lack of success. In an effort to address the escalating violence, the DRC government has agreed to engage in peace talks with\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/21/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-416c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"government-retakes-presidential-palace-in-khartoum-heathrow-closure-hamas-rockets-target-israel\"\u003eGovernment Retakes Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Heathrow Closure, Hamas Rockets Target Israel\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇸🇩 \u003cstrong\u003eGovernment Forces Retake Presidential Palace in Khartoum\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSudanese government forces have retaken the Presidential Palace in Khartoum but the opposition Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still control large parts of the Sudanese capital. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5y0w7pjnp2t\"\u003eLive coverage - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛬 \u003cstrong\u003eHeathrow Shuts Down After Nearby Fire\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLondon Heathrow Airport faces unprecedented closure after a nearby electrical substation fire cut power to the hub, forcing cancellations of over 1,300 flights and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. British Airways alone will see 677 flights impacted, and there are likely to be widespread knock-on travel delays for days. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/london-s-heathrow-airport-shut-friday-due-to-power-outage\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Israel Reenters Gaza, Positive Signs in Ukraine Ceasefire Talks and Emergency Declaration in Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s Rivers State Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇵🇸 Israeli Troops Reenter Gaza\nIsrael initiated a limited ground operation in Gaza, re-establishing control of the Netzarim Corridor to create a buffer between northern and southern regions. Defense Minister Katz issued a \u0026ldquo;final warning\u0026rdquo; that Gaza residents would face evacuation from battle zones unless Hamas releases the remaining 59 hostages. This marks the first ground incursion since a six-week ceasefire lapsed earlier this month. More - Bloomberg\n🇺🇦 Positive Trump-Zelenskyy Call Advances Ukraine Ceasefire Deal\nUkrainian President Zelenskyy agreed to support a U.S. proposal to pause attacks on energy infrastructure after a \u0026ldquo;positive\u0026rdquo; hour-long call with President Trump, who suggested American ownership of Ukrainian power plants as protection. The diplomatic breakthrough follows Putin\u0026rsquo;s similar acceptance of the energy-targeting moratorium, though he rejected a full 30-day ceasefire. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia exchanged 372 prisoners in one of the largest swaps since the 2022 invasion. More - Al Jazeera\n🇳🇬** State Of Emergency Declared in Nigeria’s Rivers State**\nPresident Tinubu declared a state of emergency in oil-rich Rivers state, suspending Governor Fubara and all lawmakers for six months amid pipeline attacks and political turmoil. The Nigerian Bar Association condemned the move as \u0026ldquo;unconstitutional,\u0026rdquo; while opposition parties called it a \u0026ldquo;well-oiled plot\u0026rdquo; to forcefully take over the state. The suspension follows damage to the Trans-Niger Pipeline which generates approximately $14 million daily in oil revenue. More - BBC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nAsia News Summary In Singapore, the economy is grappling with a major fraud case involving transactions worth US$390 million linked to US servers, as revealed by prosecutors [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. Meanwhile, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s shipping firm SingPost is investing S$30 million to enhance its eCommerce logistics hub, indicating a push towards strengthening its\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/20/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-2825/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-reenters-gaza-positive-signs-in-ukraine-ceasefire-talks-and-emergency-declaration-in-nigerias-rivers-state\"\u003eIsrael Reenters Gaza, Positive Signs in Ukraine Ceasefire Talks and Emergency Declaration in Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s Rivers State\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸 \u003cstrong\u003eIsraeli Troops Reenter Gaza\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael initiated a limited ground operation in Gaza, re-establishing control of the Netzarim Corridor to create a buffer between northern and southern regions. Defense Minister Katz issued a \u0026ldquo;final warning\u0026rdquo; that Gaza residents would face evacuation from battle zones unless Hamas releases the remaining 59 hostages. This marks the first ground incursion since a six-week ceasefire lapsed earlier this month. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/israeli-forces-begin-limited-ground-operation-in-gaza\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Putin-Trump Fail to Agree Ceasefire and Gaza Offensive Resumes with \u0026lsquo;Full Force\u0026rsquo; Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo headlines to start your day\n🇺🇦** Trump-Putin Fail to Reach Ceasefire Agreement**\nPutin rejected Trump\u0026rsquo;s requested 30-day Ukraine ceasefire, instead offering only to limit attacks on energy infrastructure while demanding an end to Western weapons transfers. Despite the limited agreement, Trump claimed victory and announced peace negotiations are underway, while Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Zelenskiy conditionally accepted the arrangement. European allies remain skeptical, with the UK discussing accelerated arms shipments before any ceasefire takes effect. More - Bloomberg\n🇵🇸 Netanyahu Declares \u0026ldquo;Full Force” Resumption of Gaza Offensive\nIsrael launched massive airstrikes across Gaza, killing over 400 people according to Hamas-run health ministry, as Netanyahu declared combat has \u0026ldquo;resumed with full force.\u0026rdquo; The attacks shattered a fragile ceasefire that had mostly held since January, with Netanyahu vowing negotiations will now \u0026ldquo;continue only under fire\u0026rdquo; despite protests from hostage families and condemnation from Egypt. The Trump administration was consulted before the strikes, while Hamas warned the escalation threatens remaining Israeli hostages. More - BBC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economy is experiencing a blend of resilience and innovation. Ascom, a technology firm, has announced its 2024 full-year results, including a dividend and a share buyback program, signaling confidence in its financial health [SOURCE - The Manila Times]. Concurrently, Tecan has reported enhanced operational resilience amid challenging conditions, further underscoring the adaptability of Swiss businesses [SOURCE - The Manila Times]. Additionally, Haffner Energy\u0026rsquo;s contract for a biomass-based hydrogen production plant reflects Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s commitment to reducing its carbon footprint [[SO\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/19/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-5bd2/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"putin-trump-fail-to-agree-ceasefire-and-gaza-offensive-resumes-with-full-force\"\u003ePutin-Trump Fail to Agree Ceasefire and Gaza Offensive Resumes with \u0026lsquo;Full Force\u0026rsquo;\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo headlines to start your day\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦** Trump-Putin Fail to Reach Ceasefire Agreement**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePutin rejected Trump\u0026rsquo;s requested 30-day Ukraine ceasefire, instead offering only to limit attacks on energy infrastructure while demanding an end to Western weapons transfers. Despite the limited agreement, Trump claimed victory and announced peace negotiations are underway, while Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Zelenskiy conditionally accepted the arrangement. European allies remain skeptical, with the UK discussing accelerated arms shipments before any ceasefire takes effect. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/putin-spurns-ukraine-ceasefire-in-talks-but-trump-calls-it-a-win\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Hundreds Killed in Gaza Strikes, Trump Deportations backlash and Netanyahu Moves to Fire head of Shin Bet Andrew Sheves\nGood morning.\n📞 US President Trump and Russian Putin will have a direct phone call today (morning ET) to discuss the proposed peace plan for Ukraine.\nThree headlines to kick off your Tuesday.\n💥** Breaking: Extensive Israeli Strikes Across Gaza Kill Over 300**\nBeginning at 0200 local, Israel conducted extensive strikes across Gaza hitting 35 targets across the strip. Several senior Hamas leaders were killed in the strikes, along with hundreds of civilians. Israel also issued evacuation notices, establishing a ‘red zone’ along the entire Gaza border, forcing thousands of families to move. The strikes came after two months of relative peace during Phase One of a ceasefire when the hostage and prisoner changes took place, and aid was allowed back into the Gaza Strip. BBC - Live Updates Background—Phase Two implementation talks had stalled as Israel has been pushing for an extension of the Phase One ceasefire, while Hamas negotiators wanted to continue to Phase Two, which would move both parties to a more lasting peace and eventually a permanent ceasefire.\nIn statements last night, Israel accused Hamas “*[repeated refusal of] the proposal to extend the ceasefire and release our hostages\u0026quot; adding \u0026ldquo;From this point forward, Israel will act against Hamas with increasing military intensity,\u0026rdquo; *\nHowever, a wide range of international leaders and groups are condemning the strikes, blaming Israel for killing the talks, while the families of Israeli hostages are accusing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of abandoning the remaining hostages.\n🇮🇱** Netanyahu Moves to Fire Domestic Intelligence Head**\nNetanyahu moved to fire Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, an unprecedented action against Israel\u0026rsquo;s domestic security agency head, amid investigations into the Prime Minister\u0026rsquo;s advisers for allegedly receiving Qatari payments. Bar refused to resign, citing \u0026ldquo;sensitive investigations\u0026rdquo; and hostage recovery efforts, while Israel\u0026rsquo;s attorney general warned the dismissal may be illegal due to Netanyahu\u0026rsquo;s conflict of interest. More - Axios\n🛫 White House deportation clash\nThe White House defied a judge\u0026rsquo;s order to halt deportations of 261 alleged gang members to El Salvador, claiming the ruling came too late and \u0026ldquo;had no legal basis.\u0026rdquo; Trump invoked the rarely-used 1798 Alien Enemies Act to justify the removals, sparking constitutional concerns about executive power and due process. More - BBC\nLive Country Data, Connected in Minutes\nWe’re all short of time and one thing I am incredibly focused on with Decis is getting you the information you need as easily and quickly as possible. Why would you have to jump through hoops to set up a data service or wait for the analyst to get you a country brief?\nSo when I built the API, the intent was to make everything as smooth as possible\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/18/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-903d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"hundreds-killed-in-gaza-strikes-trump-deportations-backlash-and-netanyahu-moves-to-fire-head-of-shin-bet\"\u003eHundreds Killed in Gaza Strikes, Trump Deportations backlash and Netanyahu Moves to Fire head of Shin Bet\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e📞 US President Trump and Russian Putin will have a direct phone call today (morning ET) to discuss the proposed peace plan for Ukraine.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree headlines to kick off your Tuesday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e💥** Breaking: Extensive Israeli Strikes Across Gaza Kill Over 300**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBeginning at 0200 local, Israel conducted extensive strikes across Gaza hitting 35 targets across the strip. Several senior Hamas leaders were killed in the strikes, along with hundreds of civilians. Israel also issued evacuation notices, establishing a ‘red zone’ along the entire Gaza border, forcing thousands of families to move. The strikes came after two months of relative peace during Phase One of a ceasefire when the hostage and prisoner changes took place, and aid was allowed back into the Gaza Strip. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/\"\u003eBBC - Live Updates\u003c/a\u003e \u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Stability ratings, anti-government protests in Belgrade, Yemen Strikes and Mass Deportations from USA Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\nThree headlines from the weekend.\n🇷🇸 Huge Anti-Government Protests in Belgrade\nSerbia witnessed its largest-ever protest as up to 325,000 people rallied in Belgrade against the government following a railway station collapse that killed 15 people last November. The massive demonstration, organized as \u0026ldquo;15th for 15,\u0026rdquo; brought together students, taxi drivers, farmers, and military veterans demanding accountability for the disaster at Novi Sad station, which many blame on corruption during renovation work personally inaugurated by President Aleksandar Vucic. Despite multiple resignations including the Prime Minister\u0026rsquo;s, protesters insist none of their demands for transparency and justice have been fully met. More - BBC\n🇾🇪** US strikes Yemen and Housthis Claim retaliation**\nThe Houthis claim to have launched 18 missiles and a drone at the USS Harry S. Truman in retaliation for American airstrikes that killed 53 people, including five children and two women, according to the Houthi-run Health Ministry. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth vowed \u0026ldquo;unrelenting\u0026rdquo; strikes against the group until they cease targeting shipping vessels, with President Trump threatening \u0026ldquo;overwhelming lethal force.\u0026rdquo; The Houthis had recently resumed maritime attacks after suspending them during the Gaza ceasefire, citing Israel\u0026rsquo;s blocking of humanitarian aid to Gaza as justification for their campaign. More - AlJazeera\n🇺🇸 Mass Expulsion of Gang Members from USA\nThe Trump administration expelled nearly 300 alleged Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang members to El Salvador despite a federal judge ordering a 14-day halt to some deportations under Trump\u0026rsquo;s controversial invocation of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced the removal of these \u0026ldquo;heinous monsters\u0026rdquo; to Salvadoran custody through an agreement brokered with President Nayib Bukele, who confirmed 238 gang members were transferred to a terrorism confinement center. The administration claimed in court filings that some deportations occurred before the judge\u0026rsquo;s order, while opponents argue the wartime powers cannot target criminal enterprises rather than hostile nations.\nMore - Bloomberg\nNote\n*I’m dropping the audio summaries as I am finding these little repetitive and want to find a better solution.BUT if you are enjoying these, hit reply and let me know and I can keep them in while I look for a better option. *\n**Want to include these ratings in your own system? **\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/17/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-7-day-audio-summary-a69c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"stability-ratings-anti-government-protests-in-belgrade-yemen-strikes-and-mass-deportations-from-usa\"\u003eStability ratings, anti-government protests in Belgrade, Yemen Strikes and Mass Deportations from USA\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree headlines from the weekend.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇷🇸 \u003cstrong\u003eHuge Anti-Government Protests in Belgrade\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSerbia witnessed its largest-ever protest as up to 325,000 people rallied in Belgrade against the government following a railway station collapse that killed 15 people last November. The massive demonstration, organized as \u0026ldquo;15th for 15,\u0026rdquo; brought together students, taxi drivers, farmers, and military veterans demanding accountability for the disaster at Novi Sad station, which many blame on corruption during renovation work personally inaugurated by President Aleksandar Vucic. Despite multiple resignations including the Prime Minister\u0026rsquo;s, protesters insist none of their demands for transparency and justice have been fully met. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2g8v32q30o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary"},{"content":"Work Still to be Done on Ukraine Peace Deal, US Shutdown Averted and Weekend Diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo stories to help you stay up on top of things.\n🇺🇦 US negotiator Steve Witkoff met with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss the Ukraine peace deal last night to discuss the proposed ceasefire deal. Putin reportedly \u0026ldquo;expressed solidarity\u0026rdquo; with President Trump’s position but had \u0026ldquo;voiced a number of questions that need to be answered together… There’s still a lot ahead to be done\u0026rdquo;. [BBC Live Coverage]\n🇺🇸 Sufficient Democrats in the US Senate will vote for the proposed Government funding bill to avoid a shutdown, many seeing the current CR as the lesser of two evils. [More - Politico]\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania\nRegional News Summary In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), tensions have escalated as Islamic State-linked rebels launched a fresh attack in the eastern region, resulting in the deaths of nine villagers. This incident highlights the ongoing security challenges that plague the area, further exacerbated by the seizure of the town of Nyabiondo by M23 rebel forces. [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press] [SOURCE - TASS].\nAmid these conflicts, the DRC\u0026rsquo;s mineral wealth continues to attract global interest. The United States has expressed openness to partnering with the DRC on mineral extraction projects, which could provide a much-needed economic boost [SOURCE - SABC News]. Similarly, India is in discussions with the DRC to secure a deal for sourcing cobalt and copper, further emphasizing the country\u0026rsquo;s strategic importance in the global mineral market [SOURCE - The Economic Times].\nIn light of the ongoing unrest, Angola\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/14/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-ab90/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"work-still-to-be-done-on-ukraine-peace-deal-us-shutdown-averted-and-weekend-diversions\"\u003eWork Still to be Done on Ukraine Peace Deal, US Shutdown Averted and Weekend Diversions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo stories to help you stay up on top of things.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 US negotiator Steve Witkoff met with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss the Ukraine peace deal last night to discuss the proposed ceasefire deal. Putin reportedly \u0026ldquo;expressed solidarity\u0026rdquo; with President Trump’s position but had \u0026ldquo;voiced a number of questions that need to be answered together… There’s still a lot ahead to be done\u0026rdquo;. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgj5w6veqw6t\"\u003eBBC Live Coverage\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Moscow Stays Silent on Ukraine Deal, US Shutdown Approaches and Iran Rejects Nuclear Talks Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇦 Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow\nThe BBC has a line-by-line breakdown of the proposed peace deal for Ukraine here. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has yet to respond to the proposed deal officially but US mediators head to Moscow soon to discuss the deal with the Russian leader.\n🇺🇸 US Government Shutdown Looms\nSenate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer declared his party would block a Republican spending bill to avert Saturday\u0026rsquo;s government shutdown, demanding GOP acceptance of a one-month funding extension instead. The standoff raises shutdown risks amid market volatility from Trump\u0026rsquo;s tariff threats, though moderate Democrats like Senator John Fetterman have broken ranks, stating he would \u0026ldquo;never vote to shut down the government.\u0026rdquo; Republicans remain defiant with Senator John Cornyn dismissing Schumer\u0026rsquo;s threat as a bluff, while House Republicans have already left Washington for a two-week break. More - Bloomberg\n🇮🇷 Iran Rejects Nuclear Talks\nIran\u0026rsquo;s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed US President Donald Trump\u0026rsquo;s offer to negotiate over Iran\u0026rsquo;s nuclear program as \u0026ldquo;a deception aimed at shaping global opinion.\u0026rdquo; The rebuke came as Trump\u0026rsquo;s letter seeking negotiations was delivered to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi by the UAE\u0026rsquo;s diplomatic adviser, while Khamenei argued renewed talks would only \u0026ldquo;tighten the knot of sanctions.\u0026rdquo; Meanwhile, six UN Security Council members requested a closed-door meeting over Iran\u0026rsquo;s expanding stock of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, approaching weapons-grade levels. More - AlJazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nAsia News Summary In Singapore, the government has made notable changes to its work permit policy, abolishing the maximum employment period and raising the age limit for work permit holders to 63. This initiative aims to attract and retain foreign talent, bolstering the nation’s economy amidst global competition for skilled labor. Additionally, Singapore has streamlined work visas for Indian professionals, positioning itself as an attractive alternative to the tightening immigration policies in the United States [[SOURCE - Channel News Asia]](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/work-permit-no-maximum-employment-period-age-s-pass-foreign-workers-4981096?utm_\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/13/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-3683/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"moscow-stays-silent-on-ukraine-deal-us-shutdown-approaches-and-iran-rejects-nuclear-talks\"\u003eMoscow Stays Silent on Ukraine Deal, US Shutdown Approaches and Iran Rejects Nuclear Talks\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eUkraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe BBC has a line-by-line breakdown of the proposed peace deal for Ukraine \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y42125239o\"\u003ehere\u003c/a\u003e. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has yet to respond to the proposed deal officially but US mediators head to Moscow soon to discuss the deal with the Russian leader.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸 \u003cstrong\u003eUS Government Shutdown Looms\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Train Siege in Pakistan, EU Hits Back with Tariffs and a Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇵🇰** Train Siege in Pakistan**\nSecurity forces have freed over 100 passengers from a militant train attack in Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s Balochistan region, killing at least 17 attackers in an ongoing operation. The Baloch Liberation Army seized the Jaffar Express carrying more than 400 passengers, threatening to kill hostages if authorities did not release Baloch political prisoners within 48 hours. Rescue operations continue in the remote Sibi district where the train remains surrounded by mountains. More - BBC\n🇪🇺 EU Targets Red States with Retaliatory Tariffs\nThe European Union has announced countermeasures against new US metals tariffs, targeting up to €26 billion ($28.3 billion) worth of American goods with duties as high as 25%. The retaliation comes after the US imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, with the EU strategically targeting politically sensitive goods in Republican-led states, including soybeans from Louisiana and beef from Nebraska and Kansas. EU Trade Chief Maros Sefcovic indicated willingness to negotiate while warning of market disruption as European steel producers brace for redirected imports. More - Bloomberg\n🇺🇦 Ukraine Ceasefire Offer Headed to Moscow\nThe United States will resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv agreed to support Washington\u0026rsquo;s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the breakthrough following eight hours of talks in Saudi Arabia, saying the offer would now be presented to Moscow through multiple channels. President Vladimir Putin has previously stated he is open to peace discussions but has ruled out territorial concessions and demanded Ukraine withdraw from regions claimed by Russia.\nMore - Reuters\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland\nRegional News Summary In Switzerland, inflation has dipped to a four-year low, falling from 1.1% in January to 0.8% in February. This decline is a positive sign for the Swiss economy as it continues to recover from the pandemic-induced recession [[SOURCE - Swissinfo]](https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/banking-fintech/swiss-inflation-fell\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/12/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-1a09/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"train-siege-in-pakistan-eu-hits-back-with-tariffs-and-a-ukraine-peace-deal-heads-to-moscow\"\u003eTrain Siege in Pakistan, EU Hits Back with Tariffs and a Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇰** Train Siege in Pakistan**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSecurity forces have freed over 100 passengers from a militant train attack in Pakistan\u0026rsquo;s Balochistan region, killing at least 17 attackers in an ongoing operation. The Baloch Liberation Army seized the Jaffar Express carrying more than 400 passengers, threatening to kill hostages if authorities did not release Baloch political prisoners within 48 hours. Rescue operations continue in the remote Sibi district where the train remains surrounded by mountains. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y2q5v9249o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Duterte Arrested, Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume Amidst Moscow Drone Blitz, and US Markets Plunge Andrew Sheves\nGood morning.\n🇵🇭 Breaking* Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manilla in response to an ICC warrant alleging human rights abuses during his time as President. [More - BBC]*\nTwo headlines to kick off your Tuesday\n🇺🇦 Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume in Saudi\nU.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed optimism about Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s partial ceasefire proposal ahead of crucial talks in Saudi Arabia, calling it \u0026ldquo;the kind of concession needed to end the conflict.\u0026rdquo; Ukraine is expected to propose an aerial and naval truce during negotiations between Ukrainian officials and U.S. representatives including Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The talks follow President Trump\u0026rsquo;s suspension of military aid to pressure Kyiv toward peace negotiations, with Rubio indicating aid could resume if Ukraine demonstrates commitment to a diplomatic solution. President Zelensky met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday but will not participate directly in Tuesday\u0026rsquo;s discussions. More - BBC\n💥 Overnight, Ukraine hit Moscow with a huge barrage of hundreds of drones. Two are reported dead but the damage assessment is still ongoing [BBC live coverage]\n📉 Tech Stocks Lead US Market Plunge\nU.S. stocks tumbled sharply Monday as investors grew increasingly anxious about Trump\u0026rsquo;s tariff policies and signs of economic slowdown, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeting 4% in its worst day in 2.5 years. Tesla crashed 15.4%, erasing all post-election gains and falling over 50% from December highs, while Nvidia dropped 5.1% amid a broader tech sell-off. Major banks have abandoned bullish forecasts as China\u0026rsquo;s retaliatory tariffs took effect and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the economy \u0026ldquo;starting to roll a bit.\u0026rdquo; Goldman Sachs cut its U.S. growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.4%, with JPMorgan warning the S\u0026amp;P could fall another 10% due to \u0026ldquo;trade uncertainty.\u0026rdquo; More - FT\nLive Country Data, Connected in Minutes We’re all short of time and one thing I am incredibly focused on with Decis is getting you the information you need as easily and quickly as possible. Why would you have to jump through hoops to set up a data service or wait for the analyst to get you a country brief?\nSo when I built the API, the intent was to make everything as smooth as possible: the sign up, coverage selection, connection to your systems.\nWhat does that mean in reality?\nIt means you c\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/11/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-2e8d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"duterte-arrested-ukraine-ceasefire-talks-resume-amidst-moscow-drone-blitz-and-us-markets-plunge\"\u003eDuterte Arrested, Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume Amidst Moscow Drone Blitz, and US Markets Plunge\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇭 \u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBreaking\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e* Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manilla in response to an ICC warrant alleging human rights abuses during his time as President. [\u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp9ykn85401o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e]*\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo headlines to kick off your Tuesday\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eUkraine Ceasefire Talks Resume in Saudi\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eU.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed optimism about Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s partial ceasefire proposal ahead of crucial talks in Saudi Arabia, calling it \u0026ldquo;the kind of concession needed to end the conflict.\u0026rdquo; Ukraine is expected to propose an aerial and naval truce during negotiations between Ukrainian officials and U.S. representatives including Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The talks follow President Trump\u0026rsquo;s suspension of military aid to pressure Kyiv toward peace negotiations, with Rubio indicating aid could resume if Ukraine demonstrates commitment to a diplomatic solution. President Zelensky met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday but will not participate directly in Tuesday\u0026rsquo;s discussions. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly4gldd5ljo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week\u0026rsquo;s big events Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\nThree headlines from the weekend. (A summary of all of last week’s big stories is the in audio summary below.)\n🇨🇦 Carney Elected as Canadian Prime Minister\nFormer central banker Mark Carney won the Liberal Party leadership race with 85.9% of the vote and will become Canada\u0026rsquo;s prime minister within days amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The incoming leader faces immediate challenges from Trump\u0026rsquo;s chaotic tariff policies, including imminent 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports and threats against Canadian lumber and dairy products. Carney, who positioned himself as an experienced crisis manager, pledged to find new export markets and scrap planned capital gains tax increases while warning \u0026ldquo;no way\u0026rdquo; to Trump\u0026rsquo;s suggestion of making Canada \u0026ldquo;the 51st state.\u0026rdquo; More - Bloomberg\n🇸🇩 Israel Cuts Gaza Power\nIsrael has ordered the complete shutdown of electricity supply to Gaza, primarily affecting critical desalination plants that provide clean drinking water to the territory\u0026rsquo;s 2+ million residents. Energy Minister Eli Cohen\u0026rsquo;s announcement follows Israel\u0026rsquo;s week-old blockade of all humanitarian aid, escalating pressure on Hamas amid stalled ceasefire negotiations. The militant group insists on proceeding to the ceasefire\u0026rsquo;s second phase for a permanent end to hostilities, while Israel demands an extension of the first phase that expired March 1st. The UN has warned that denying civilians necessities \u0026ldquo;may amount to collective punishment.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇨🇩 Rebels Gain Ground in DRC\nRwanda-backed M23 rebels have advanced toward the strategic mining town of Walikale after capturing North and South Kivu\u0026rsquo;s provincial capitals in recent weeks. Government forces suffered a major setback as the longstanding Group Kabido militia defected to join M23 rebels against what they call \u0026ldquo;mismanagement of the Kinshasa government.\u0026rdquo; The DRC has offered a $5 million reward for the capture of three rebel leaders, including M23\u0026rsquo;s president and military chief, all previously sentenced to death in absentia. UN officials report escalating attacks on hospitals and civilian infrastructure, with over 7,000 killed since January and hundreds of thousands newly displaced. More - Al Jazeera\nHere the audio summary of last week’s stories.\nReminder: this audio is an AI-summary of last week’s reports. AI can make mistakes — particularly in the subtleties of International relations — so please review any situation carefully before you make major decisions.\n**Want to include these ratings in your own system? **\n](https://api.decis.ai/?utm_s\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/10/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-7-day-audio-summary-553c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"stability-ratings-and-an-audio-wrap-up-of-last-weeks-big-events\"\u003eStability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week\u0026rsquo;s big events\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree headlines from the weekend. \u003cem\u003e(A summary of all of last week’s big stories is the in audio summary below.)\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eCarney Elected as Canadian Prime Minister\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFormer central banker Mark Carney won the Liberal Party leadership race with 85.9% of the vote and will become Canada\u0026rsquo;s prime minister within days amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The incoming leader faces immediate challenges from Trump\u0026rsquo;s chaotic tariff policies, including imminent 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports and threats against Canadian lumber and dairy products. Carney, who positioned himself as an experienced crisis manager, pledged to find new export markets and scrap planned capital gains tax increases while warning \u0026ldquo;no way\u0026rdquo; to Trump\u0026rsquo;s suggestion of making Canada \u0026ldquo;the 51st state.\u0026rdquo; \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/mark-carney-wins-canada-liberal-contest-will-succeed-trudeau-in-days\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary"},{"content":"Assad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo stories to help you stay up on top of things.\n🇸🇾 Assad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces\nAssad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad\u0026rsquo;s fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced \u0026ldquo;coastal shield regiment\u0026rdquo; led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. More - Al Jazeera\n🇪🇺 European Leaders Increase Defense Spending, Seek Independence from the US\nEuropean leaders greenlit an €800 billion defense spending plan and expressed continued support for Ukraine amid shifting US policy under President Trump. The proposal includes relaxing budget deficit rules for military investments and providing €150 billion in loans for defense projects. French President Emmanuel Macron sparked discussion by offering to extend France\u0026rsquo;s nuclear deterrence to European allies, drawing positive responses from Poland and Baltic states but criticism from Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s President Zelensky confirmed he will meet Saudi and US officials next week for potential peace framework talks. More - France24\nComment - this increase in European defense spending is what President Trump and other U.S. leaders have long advocated for, so it will be seen as a welcome step by many in Washington. However, the overall anti-European, America-first messaging from the White House and the abrupt suspension of military funding and intelligence sharing with Ukraine have led many to conclude that America is no longer a reliable ally.\nIt’s too early for definitive polling on this, but the sentiment that America is no longer a strong ally was already gaining traction in parts of Europe well before the recent turmoil over Ukraine.\nPoll of Danish trust in the US as an ally vs a necessary partner 2023-2024\nThe collapse of trust in the US may be one of the most significant outcomes of Trump’s first 100 days and seems to foreshadow the end of NATO, where, ironically, the US is the only country to have ever invoked the Article 5 mutual defense pact after 9/11.\nOn to the ratings\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/07/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-78b5/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"assad-loyalists-ambush-syrian-security-forces-and-europe-rearmament-plans\"\u003eAssad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo stories to help you stay up on top of things.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇸🇾 \u003cstrong\u003eAssad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAssad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad\u0026rsquo;s fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced \u0026ldquo;coastal shield regiment\u0026rdquo; led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. \u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/6/syrian-forces-in-deadly-clashes-with-assad-loyalists-in-latakia\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"US Recession Signals, Fighting Words from China and USAID Cuts Cause Starvation in Sudan Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇸 US Recession Signals Mount\nJPMorgan\u0026rsquo;s market-implied probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 17% in November, with some indicators suggesting a 50% chance of economic contraction. The risk assessment comes amid weakening factory activity, declining consumer confidence, and market volatility triggered by Trump\u0026rsquo;s newly implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. While unemployment remains low at around 4%, economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate a 25% probability of contraction within a year as stagflation concerns grow. More - Bloomberg\n🇨🇳 China Declares ‘Readiness to Fight’ US\nChina declared readiness to fight \u0026ldquo;any type of war\u0026rdquo; with the United States after both nations exchanged new tariffs, with Beijing imposing 10-15% levies on American farm products in response to Trump\u0026rsquo;s measures. The stark warning coincided with China\u0026rsquo;s announcement of a 7.2% increase in defense spending during the National People\u0026rsquo;s Congress, where Premier Li Qiang emphasized continued economic opening despite growing tensions. Relations have deteriorated rapidly despite initial optimism following Trump\u0026rsquo;s invitation of President Xi to his inauguration and their reportedly \u0026ldquo;great phone call.\u0026rdquo; More - BBC\n🇸🇩 Aid Cuts Worsen Sudan Crisis\nThe Trump administration\u0026rsquo;s suspension of USAID funding has forced closure of 80% of Sudan\u0026rsquo;s community kitchens, exacerbating a catastrophic hunger crisis where 600,000 people already face famine levels. Local Emergency Response Rooms are scrambling to secure alternative funding from the diaspora and charities as both warring parties—the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces—continue to obstruct humanitarian access through bureaucratic impediments and violence. Without replacement funding, relief workers warn hundreds of thousands more Sudanese will die from malnutrition-related diseases as fighting escalates and displacement increases. More - Al Jazeera\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nAsia News Summary In a notable joint operation, Singapore and Thailand successfully apprehended a hacker known as \u0026ldquo;ALtdOS,\u0026rdquo; who was implicated in international data breaches. This arrest underscores the importance of international collaboration in combating cybercrime, a growing concern in\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/06/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-4f19/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-recession-signals-fighting-words-from-china-and-usaid-cuts-cause-starvation-in-sudan\"\u003eUS Recession Signals, Fighting Words from China and USAID Cuts Cause Starvation in Sudan\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸 \u003cstrong\u003eUS Recession Signals Mount\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eJPMorgan\u0026rsquo;s market-implied probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 17% in November, with some indicators suggesting a 50% chance of economic contraction. The risk assessment comes amid weakening factory activity, declining consumer confidence, and market volatility triggered by Trump\u0026rsquo;s newly implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. While unemployment remains low at around 4%, economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate a 25% probability of contraction within a year as stagflation concerns grow. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-05/wall-street-banks-say-markets-are-flashing-rising-recession-risk\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Trade Wars Kick Off and an Alternate Plan for Gaza from the Middle East Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🏴‍☠️ Trade War(s) Kick Off\nIn response to US tariffs, Canada refused to concede to American pressure and responded with reciprocal measures. China and Mexico have also vowed retaliatory measures to come soon. However, by evening, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs could be lifted as early as Wednesday, deepening confusion. [More - Bloomberg]\n🇵🇸 Arab Leaders Publish Gaza Plan to Counter Trump’s Middle East Riviera Vision\nArab leaders approved a $53 billion Gaza reconstruction plan at an emergency Cairo summit, directly challenging President Trump\u0026rsquo;s controversial \u0026ldquo;Middle East Riviera\u0026rdquo; proposal that suggested relocating Palestinians. Egypt\u0026rsquo;s 91-page blueprint emphasizes Palestinian rights and envisions Gaza managed by Palestinian technocrats under international peacekeeping, with reconstruction occurring in three phases over several years. The plan explicitly rejects \u0026ldquo;any displacement, whether voluntary or forced\u0026rdquo; while calling for progress toward a two-state solution that Israel\u0026rsquo;s Netanyahu firmly opposes. More - BBC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEurope News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economy is navigating a complex landscape marked by both challenges and opportunities. In January, Swiss exports surged to a six-year high, despite a widening foreign trade deficit that increased by 22 percent to $7.5 billion. This growth in exports is a positive sign, yet it contrasts with the struggles faced by some Swiss companies, such as Feintool, which reported lower annual sales amid a difficult market environment in Europe. Additionally, budget cuts are impacting preventive health campaigns, raising concerns about the country\u0026rsquo;s healthcare system [SOURCE - Financial Times].\nIn the realm of foreign policy, Switzerland continues to express support for Ukraine, advocating for the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the workforce and condemning Russian aggression. The Swiss government is also set to host a conference on the occupied Palestinian territories, reinforcing its commitment to diplomacy and conflict resolution [[SOURCE - Swissinfo]](https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/life-aging/swiss-government-wants-more-ukrainian-refugees-to-join-the-workf\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/05/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-f4f8/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trade-wars-kick-off-and-an-alternate-plan-for-gaza-from-the-middle-east\"\u003eTrade Wars Kick Off and an Alternate Plan for Gaza from the Middle East\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🏴‍☠️ \u003cstrong\u003eTrade War(s) Kick Off\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn response to US tariffs, Canada refused to concede to American pressure and responded with reciprocal measures. China and Mexico have also vowed retaliatory measures to come soon. However, by evening, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs could be lifted as early as Wednesday, deepening confusion. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/lutnick-says-trump-considering-some-mexico-canada-tariff-relief\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Tariffs Kick In, Oil Production Increase and Gaza Ceasefire in Danger Andrew Sheves\nGood morning.\nThree quick headlines worth tracking.\n**President Trump Confirms Canada, Mexico and Chinese Tariffs. **\n🛑 Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect Tuesday, with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, sending U.S. stock indexes sharply lower. Canada called the tariffs \u0026ldquo;an existential threat\u0026rdquo; with thousands of jobs at stake, while all three countries have promised retaliatory measures. The president dismissed economic concerns, suggesting foreign manufacturers should \u0026ldquo;build their car plants in the United States”. More - BBC\nOPEC+ Announces Oil Production Increase\n🛢️ OPEC+ will proceed with a 138,000 barrels-per-day production increase in April, the first step in restoring 2.2 million barrels daily by 2026 despite prevailing low prices. The surprise decision sent Brent crude tumbling 2.8% to a three-month low, potentially reflecting Saudi Arabia\u0026rsquo;s response to President Trump\u0026rsquo;s recent call to lower oil prices. The move comes despite projections of a 450,000 barrel-per-day global supply surplus later this year from non-OPEC sources. More - Bloomberg\n**Gaza Ceasefire Unravelling **\n🇵🇸 Israel has blocked all humanitarian aid to Gaza after the first phase of the ceasefire expired, demanding Hamas accept a new U.S. proposal that would extend the truce for 50 days in exchange for releasing half the remaining hostages. Hamas rejected this as \u0026ldquo;a blatant attempt to evade the agreement,\u0026rdquo; while Egypt and Qatar accused Israel of violating international law by \u0026ldquo;using food as a weapon.\u0026rdquo; With both sides preparing to resume fighting, pressure mounts from Israeli hostage families and the international community to prevent renewed hostilities. More - BBC\nLive Country Data, Connected in Minutes We’re all short of time and one thing I am incredibly focused on with Decis is getting you the information you need as easily and quickly as possible. Why would you have to jump through hoops to set up a data service or wait for the analyst to get you a country brief?\nSo when I built the API, the intent was to make everything as smooth as possible: the sign up, coverage selection, connection to your systems.\nWhat does that mean in reality?\nIt means you can be set up and connected in just a couple of minutes. Here’s how.\nTry the API yourself - api.decis.ai (And if you beat my time, let me know.)\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas,\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/04/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-1ef4/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"tariffs-kick-in-oil-production-increase-and-gaza-ceasefire-in-danger\"\u003eTariffs Kick In, Oil Production Increase and Gaza Ceasefire in Danger\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree quick headlines worth tracking.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e**President Trump Confirms Canada, Mexico and Chinese Tariffs. **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛑 Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect Tuesday, with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, sending U.S. stock indexes sharply lower. Canada called the tariffs \u0026ldquo;an existential threat\u0026rdquo; with thousands of jobs at stake, while all three countries have promised retaliatory measures. The president dismissed economic concerns, suggesting foreign manufacturers should \u0026ldquo;\u003cem\u003ebuild their car plants in the United States\u003c/em\u003e”. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn48q3150dxo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week\u0026rsquo;s big events Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\nHere are this week’s stability ratings and the audio review of last week’s stories.\nReminder: this audio is an AI-summary of last week’s reports. AI can make mistakes — particularly in the subtleties of International relations — so please review any situation carefully before you make major decisions.\n**Want to include these ratings in your own system? **\n](https://api.decis.ai/)[Get your free API key here](https://api.decis.ai) and you’ll be set up in a couple of minutes\nGlobal Stability Ratings Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/03/03/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-7-day-audio-summary/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"stability-ratings-and-an-audio-wrap-up-of-last-weeks-big-events\"\u003eStability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week\u0026rsquo;s big events\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere are this week’s stability ratings and the audio review of last week’s stories.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eReminder: this audio is an AI-summary of last week’s reports. AI can make mistakes — particularly in the subtleties of International relations — so please review any situation carefully before you make major decisions.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e**Want to include these ratings in your own system? **\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary"},{"content":"Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week\u0026rsquo;s big events Andrew Sheves ** In partnership with **\n](https://magic.beehiiv.com/v1/4d03390d-2481-4299-b949-ffd8b38b4c38?email={{email}}\u0026amp;utm_campaign=XO7DWEQZLV\u0026amp;redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fsubscribe.therundown.ai%2F%3Fform%3Dopen\u0026amp;redirect_delay=1\u0026amp;_gl=11qqix25_gcl_auMTYwNDc0Mjg2OC4xNzI5NTMyNjYw_gaMTk2YzU4MDctZGFlZi00MjQ3LWIzZDYtYTQ1MTUwMmJiZTQ0_ga_E6Y4WLQ2EC*MTczMjUxMTg2Ny4yNTkzLjEuMTczMjUxMzM4My42MC4wLjE4NTk3NDE3MTE.\u0026amp;bhiiv=opp_fba53f81-2740-4c36-96fe-60e793d15369_e4221c46\u0026amp;bhcl_id=14f77182-d5a5-40e8-8698-8ce5dd413558_SUBSCRIBER_ID{{email_address_id}}) Happy Monday.\nAs I mentioned on Friday, I’m switching the SITREP format and will be trying a couple of different schedules over the next few weeks.\nMondays will always be the complete stability ratings overview but today I’m also including an audio brief summarizing last week’s news. This gives you a quick overview of the main events from the last seven days to prep you for the week ahead.\nReminder: this audio is an AI-summary of last week’s reports. AI can make mistakes — particularly in the subtleties of International relations — so please review any situation carefully before you make major decisions.\n(And if you still want a daily brief, contact me to set up a personalized briefing or to get access to the API.)\nThere’s no SITREP tomorrow but I’ll be back an in-depth review of major stories from the regions on Thursday.\nGlobal Stability Ratings Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/24/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-c975/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"stability-ratings-and-an-audio-wrap-up-of-last-weeks-big-events\"\u003eStability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week\u0026rsquo;s big events\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n** In partnership with **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e](\u003ca href=\"https://magic.beehiiv.com/v1/4d03390d-2481-4299-b949-ffd8b38b4c38?email=%7B%7Bemail%7D%7D\u0026amp;utm_campaign=XO7DWEQZLV\u0026amp;redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fsubscribe.therundown.ai%2F%3Fform%3Dopen\u0026amp;redirect_delay=1\u0026amp;_gl=1\"\u003ehttps://magic.beehiiv.com/v1/4d03390d-2481-4299-b949-ffd8b38b4c38?email={{email}}\u0026amp;utm_campaign=XO7DWEQZLV\u0026amp;redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fsubscribe.therundown.ai%2F%3Fform%3Dopen\u0026amp;redirect_delay=1\u0026amp;_gl=1\u003c/a\u003e\u003cem\u003e1qqix25\u003c/em\u003e_gcl_au\u003cem\u003eMTYwNDc0Mjg2OC4xNzI5NTMyNjYw\u003c/em\u003e_ga\u003cem\u003eMTk2YzU4MDctZGFlZi00MjQ3LWIzZDYtYTQ1MTUwMmJiZTQ0\u003c/em\u003e_ga_E6Y4WLQ2EC*MTczMjUxMTg2Ny4yNTkzLjEuMTczMjUxMzM4My42MC4wLjE4NTk3NDE3MTE.\u0026amp;\u003cem\u003ebhiiv=opp_fba53f81-2740-4c36-96fe-60e793d15369_e4221c46\u0026amp;bhcl_id=14f77182-d5a5-40e8-8698-8ce5dd413558_SUBSCRIBER_ID\u003c/em\u003e{{email_address_id}}) Happy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs I mentioned on Friday, I’m switching the SITREP format and will be trying a couple of different schedules over the next few weeks.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMondays will always be the complete stability ratings overview but today I’m also including an audio brief summarizing last week’s news. This gives you a quick overview of the main events from the last seven days to prep you for the week ahead.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary"},{"content":"SITREP changes and an AI talk this weekend Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nNo headlines today but a quick announcement on some upcoming changes to the SITREPs.\nOur mission at Decis is simple: to provide you with a tailored, focused report on what’s relevant to you to help you adapt and respond quickly. And given that we can produce these reports up to 100x faster that the alternatives and customize down to the individual level, I like to think we’re pretty good* at it.\n(*That’s the British half of me speaking. The American half of me wants you to know that we are exceptionally good at what we do. 😊)\nSo although I enjoy putting these daily reports together each morning, a general SITREP isn’t a great example of a tailored, individualized report. In fact, it’s the opposite of what we are trying to do.\nTherefore, starting next week, I’ll be making some changes to how and when I share these via the newsletter and news page. At the same time, I’m also going to open up the self-serve aspect of the platform which allows you to create your own tailored SITREP just covering the countries and regions that affect you.\nThat way, you’ll be getting the news you need, when you need it, rather than having to wait for that week’s regional SITREP.\nI’m hoping these changes strike a better balance between keeping you informed and the Decis mission but I’d love to hear what you think so please drop me a note: what would work well for you?\nKey Metrics WTI is $72.73 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.05 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 20 2025 21:15 UTC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is currently engulfed in a deepening conflict as the M23 rebel group, allegedly backed by Rwanda, has made significant territorial gains, including the capture of Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province. This escalation has led to widespread panic and displacement among civilians, with reports of looting and violence as the rebels continue to advance. The United Nations has raised alarms about the humanitarian crisis, warning of potential \u0026ldquo;balkanization\u0026rdquo; of the region if the violence persists [SOURCE - BBC]. The situation has prompted international concern, with the African Union emphasizing the need for peace and stability in its upcoming summit discussions [[SOURCE - SABC]](https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/peace-stability-in-africa-central-to-au-s\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/21/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-c59b/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"sitrep-changes-and-an-ai-talk-this-weekend\"\u003eSITREP changes and an AI talk this weekend\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo headlines today but a quick announcement on some upcoming changes to the SITREPs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur mission at Decis is simple: to provide you with a tailored, focused report on what’s relevant to you to help you adapt and respond quickly. And given that we can produce these reports up to 100x faster that the alternatives and customize down to the individual level, I like to think we’re pretty good* at it.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Upcoming Germany Elections and Cuts at the Pentagon Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo quick reads this morning.\n🇩🇪 German elections taking place this Sunday will determine not only who will lead Europe’s biggest economy, but how influential the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is. Bloomberg has a good overview here.\n🇺🇸 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has demanded cuts of $50 billion at the Pentagon and a reordering of US defense priorities.\nWays to stay informed… Option A Repeat every day\nRead all the news you can\nTry to identify what’s relevant to you\nAnalyze it\nAssess the impact\nTake action (hours later)\nOption B Connect to the Decis API (one time)\nGet informed when something affects you\nAssess the impact\nTake action (minutes later)\nA few minutes today means hours saved each week\nTry it out - api.decis.ai Key Metrics WTI is $72.73 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 19 2025 21:16 UTC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nAsia News Summary Singapore continues to bolster its strategic partnerships, particularly with India. Recent discussions between Singapore\u0026rsquo;s President and Assam\u0026rsquo;s Chief Minister highlighted Assam\u0026rsquo;s role in enhancing the India-Singapore comprehensive strategic partnership. Additionally, India has expressed its willingness to increase flight connectivity between the two nations, further solidifying their ties [SOURCE - Daily Excelsior].\nOn the humanitarian front, Singapore has made notable contributions to global aid efforts, dispatching a second tranche of humanitarian assistance to the Gaza region, reflecting its commitment to international support [SOURCE - Deccan Chronicle].\nVietnam is also making strides in econ\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/20/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-3309/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"upcoming-germany-elections-and-cuts-at-the-pentagon\"\u003eUpcoming Germany Elections and Cuts at the Pentagon\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo quick reads this morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇩🇪 German elections taking place this Sunday will determine not only who will lead Europe’s biggest economy, but how influential the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-19/german-election-afd-rises-in-polls-against-backdrop-of-spreading-anxiety\"\u003eBloomberg has a good overview here\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has demanded cuts of $50 billion at the Pentagon and a reordering of US defense priorities.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Worst Day Since the Russian Invasion Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇦 Yesterday was the most consequential day for Ukraine since the Russian invasion three years ago. US statements after the talks between the US and Russia did little to push back Russia’s demands that Ukraine cede any territory held by Russia, would not join NATO and that no foreign troops be stationed in the country. But the real damage came at a press conference Tuesday afternoon when President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war, attacked President Zelenskyy personally, and demanded that presidential elections take place as part of any peace deal. Trump and Zelenskyy have had a difficult relationship but this is the most hostile Trump has been towards the Ukrainian leader and this seems to cement Zelenskyy’s exclusion from negotiations. [More - Politico]\nWith European leaders also shut out of the talks, it seems certain that Ukraine will have a deal imposed on them: one that gives President Putin a lot of what he wants and allows President Trump to say he brought peace to the region. But this is also a deal that leaves Ukraine smaller, weaker, poorer and with no security umbrella. Meanwhile, Moscow is well-positioned to install a pro-Russia candidate at the next set of elections giving them victory in almost every dimension.\nHowever, beyond Kyiv, this deal also sends a clear message to Europe: Trump’s White House sees this region as part of Russia’s sphere of influence and they should not expect any US support in the event of Russian incursions into Eastern Europe.\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEurope News Summary Switzerland is on the verge of a significant policy shift as a majority of politicians have voted in favor of legalizing recreational cannabis. If the proposal is approved, it would empower the federal government to regulate the sale of marijuana, moving it from its current classification as a narcotic. The plan includes establishing a state-controlled monopoly to oversee cannabis sales, marking a notable change in the country’s approach to drug policy [SOURCE - SWISSINFO CH].\nIn a separate political development, a Swiss government commission has advised against holding a mandatory referendum on a new institutional package aimed at strengthening ties with the European Union. This recommendation reflects ongoing debates about Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s relationship with the EU, which remains a contentious issue in Swiss politics [[SOURCE - LENWS]](https://lenews.ch/2025/02/15/commissi\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/19/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-bf56/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ukraines-worst-day-since-the-russian-invasion\"\u003eUkraine\u0026rsquo;s Worst Day Since the Russian Invasion\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 Yesterday was the most consequential day for Ukraine since the Russian invasion three years ago. US statements after the talks between the US and Russia did little to push back Russia’s demands that Ukraine cede any territory held by Russia, would not join NATO and that no foreign troops be stationed in the country. But the real damage came at a press conference Tuesday afternoon when President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war, attacked President Zelenskyy personally, and demanded that presidential elections take place as part of any peace deal. Trump and Zelenskyy have had a difficult relationship but this is the most hostile Trump has been towards the Ukrainian leader and this seems to cement Zelenskyy’s exclusion from negotiations. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/18/trump-blames-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-020517\"\u003eMore - Politico\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Ukraine Peace Talks Begin In Riyadh, Minus Ukraine Andrew Sheves\nGood morning.\nThe US and Russian foreign ministers are meeting in Riyadh to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. The meetings will set the scene for future discussions but have deliberately excluded European and Ukrainian participants. [More - BBC]\nComment - These talks are taking place on the heels of last week’s comments by the US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, that Ukraine would have to concede land already held by Russia and that NATO membership was off the table. Meanwhile, US documents sent to Kyiv appear to demand significant reparations be paid to the US without any meaningful security guarantees in return. The framing of these negotiations is shocking European capitals — a feature, not a bug, of the US approach — but significantly weaken Europe, threaten to bankrupt Ukraine, and undercut trust in the US and the NATO alliance. A deal on these terms will be less Winston Churchillian and more Neville Chamberlain.\nLive Country Data, Connected in Minutes We’re all short of time and one thing I am incredibly focused on with Decis is getting you the information you need as easily and quickly as possible. Why would you have to jump through hoops to set up a data service or wait for the analyst to get you a country brief?\nSo when I built the API, the intent was to make everything as smooth as possible: the sign up, coverage selection, connection to your systems.\nWhat does that mean in reality?\nIt means you can be set up and connected in just a couple of minutes. Here’s how.\nTry the API yourself - api.decis.ai (And if you beat my time, let me know.)\nKey Metrics WTI is $72.73 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.05 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 17 2025 21:16 UTC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Corruption continues to pose a significant threat to climate action in Brazil, as highlighted by Transparency International. The watchdog warns that corrupt practices within institutions often prioritize the interests of donors over local needs, undermining efforts to address climate change effectively. Brazil, a major emitter of greenhouse gases, faces challenges in its commitment to curbing carbon emissions amidst ongoing corruption\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/18/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-f769/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ukraine-peace-talks-begin-in-riyadh-minus-ukraine\"\u003eUkraine Peace Talks Begin In Riyadh, Minus Ukraine\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe US and Russian foreign ministers are meeting in Riyadh to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. The meetings will set the scene for future discussions but have deliberately excluded European and Ukrainian participants. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c62e2158mkpt\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eComment\u003c/strong\u003e - These talks are taking place on the heels of last week’s comments by the US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, that Ukraine would have to concede land already held by Russia and that NATO membership was off the table. Meanwhile, US documents sent to Kyiv appear to demand significant reparations be paid to the US without any meaningful security guarantees in return. The framing of these negotiations is shocking European capitals — a feature, not a bug, of the US approach — but significantly weaken Europe, threaten to bankrupt Ukraine, and undercut trust in the US and the NATO alliance. A deal on these terms will be less Winston Churchillian and more Neville Chamberlain.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"M23 expands in Congo and European Leaders Convene Emergency Security Talks Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.\n🇨🇩 M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the second largest city in eastern Congo, strengthening their hold on the region. Mediation talks sponsored by the African Union are ongoing but making little progress. [More - BBC]\n🇪🇺 European leaders are convening an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss European Security. These talks follow last week’s comments from US officials and President Trump announcing that he was unilaterally staring peace talks on Ukraine with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. [More - Politico]\nWant to get the best from your AI? I’m running a free ‘AI quick wins’ session at lunchtime tomorrow (ET) on prompting\nGreat questions are keys that unlock knowledge, but the way you ask them is critical. AI is exactly the same: ask a better question, get a better answer. But it\u0026rsquo;s not just the wording: the structure, guidelines and guardrails all matter to the AI. Learn how to structure and tailor your prompts effectively to maximize the effectiveness of any AI model.\nYou can sign up here\nKey Metrics WTI is $72.73 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.05 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 16 2025 21:16 UTC\nGlobal Stability Ratings Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/17/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-a2a7/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"m23-expands-in-congo-and-european-leaders-convene-emergency-security-talks\"\u003eM23 expands in Congo and European Leaders Convene Emergency Security Talks\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇩 M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the second largest city in eastern Congo, strengthening their hold on the region. Mediation talks sponsored by the African Union are ongoing but making little progress. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0rqr8q5v52o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇪🇺 European leaders are convening an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss European Security. These talks follow last week’s comments from US officials and President Trump announcing that he was unilaterally staring peace talks on Ukraine with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/france-macron-emergency-european-summit-trump-defense-crisis-war-trump-putin-paris/\"\u003eMore - Politico\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"Worldwide tariffs on US imports coming April 1 and Car Attack in Germany Deepens Anti-Immigrant Sentiment in Election Run-Up. Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nHappy Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day.\n🚢 President Trump has ordered trade and commerce officials to design a set of reciprocal tariffs for all countries that impose any form of levy on US imports. These include import taxes but also things like value-added tax (VAT) and other point-of-sale taxes. This is a very broad and complex measure where each country would be subject to reciprocal import duties in addition to commodity duties (such as the proposed 25% tax on copper), hugely complicating supply line cost calculations for US businesses. The tariffs are set to come into force on April 1st, leaving time for bargaining, but businesses are advised to begin preparing for interruption and/or increased costs for all imported goods. [More - Bloomberg]\n🇩🇪 A vehicle rammed a crowd in Munich on Thursday morning, injuring 30. The motive is unclear but the driver has been identified as originally from Afghanistan which will further inflame the anti-immigrant sentiment currently running high in Germany. Immigration is a key issue in the upcoming elections, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has gained support with its stringent anti-immigrant message, particularly following attacks at a Christmas market and a stabbing in Bavaria, both conducted by immigrants. However, Germany’s more mainstream politicians are also promising to tighten rules on asylum and even Friedrich Merz — the center-right forerunner to be next chancellor — has promised to close Germany’s borders. [More - BBC]\nOK, this is still very much an experiment, but audio is on my mind right now, and the podcast version of the briefings is way too good not to share. I took all of this week’s SITREPS and fed them into Google’s Notebook LM with a little direction on how to structure the ‘podcast’ and the results are pretty impressive.\nPlease listen to the caveats at the start - this is completely AI-generated\nThey get a bit wobbly with some of the analysis concerning Syria but most of this is spot on. (And again, all AI… 😻)\nI might make these a permanent feature - what do you think?\nHow do you like your news? Select the delivery format you prefer- 📝 Newsletter 🎙️ Audio 📝 + 🎙️ News plus audio ﹛﹜Data feed (API) 🛒 Give me everything Login or Key Metrics WTI is $72.73 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.05 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 13 2025 21:15 UTC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/14/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-f94a/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"worldwide-tariffs-on-us-imports-coming-april-1-and-car-attack-in-germany-deepens-anti-immigrant-sentiment-in-election-run-up\"\u003eWorldwide tariffs on US imports coming April 1 and Car Attack in Germany Deepens Anti-Immigrant Sentiment in Election Run-Up.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHappy Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🚢 President Trump has ordered trade and commerce officials to design a set of reciprocal tariffs for all countries that impose any form of levy on US imports. These include import taxes but also things like value-added tax (VAT) and other point-of-sale taxes. This is a very broad and complex measure where each country would be subject to reciprocal import duties in addition to commodity duties (such as the proposed 25% tax on copper), hugely complicating supply line cost calculations for US businesses. The tariffs are set to come into force on April 1st, leaving time for bargaining, but businesses are advised to begin preparing for interruption and/or increased costs for all imported goods. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/trump-promises-reciprocal-tariffs-today-without-giving-details\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Ukraine 0 - Russia 1 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇺🇦 Ukraine cannot join NATO and must accept territorial losses, according to the US Secretary of Defense whose comments were closely followed by an announcement by President Trump that he and Russia’s Vladimir Putin had met by phone and agreed to start negotiations on Ukraine’s future. Cut out of discussions, NATO allies and Ukrainian leaders were left shocked at the announcements which concede to two of Russia’s main demands before negotiations begin. [More - Bloomberg]\nTrump is also signaling that the US will provide no troops or military aid to secure Ukraine after any peace deal and that any ongoing US military support would be conditioned on repayment, possibly by supplies of rare earth minerals. This places the entire burden on Europe and strips Ukraine of revenue for reconstruction, further weakening the post-conflict situation in Europe. Bloomberg has a deep financial analysis of the costs of the likely outcomes.\nWays to stay informed… Option A Repeat every day\nRead all the news you can\nTry to identify what’s relevant to you\nAnalyze it\nAssess the impact\nTake action (hours later)\nOption B Connect to the Decis API (one time)\nGet informed when something affects you\nAssess the impact\nTake action (minutes later)\nJust a few minutes here today will save you hours each week\nTry it out - api.decis.ai Key Metrics WTI is $73.52 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 12 2025 21:16 UTC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nAsia News Summary Singapore\u0026rsquo;s stock market is poised for a positive opening, buoyed by the resilience of its economy and a strong performance of the Singapore Dollar against major currencies. This optimism is further reflected in the real estate sector, where billionaire Quek Leng Chan\u0026rsquo;s GuocoLand has secured a prime condominium site, indicating robust demand in the property market. Additionally, Cube Highways is set to acquire NIIF\u0026rsquo;s Athaang Infrastructure Road assets for $725 million, underscor\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/13/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-5102/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ukraine-0---russia-1\"\u003eUkraine 0 - Russia 1\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 Ukraine cannot join NATO and must accept territorial losses, according to the US Secretary of Defense whose comments were closely followed by an announcement by President Trump that he and Russia’s Vladimir Putin had met by phone and agreed to start negotiations on Ukraine’s future. Cut out of discussions, NATO allies and Ukrainian leaders were left shocked at the announcements which concede to two of Russia’s main demands before negotiations begin. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/europe-demands-role-in-ukraine-talks-after-trump-putin-call\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Shell Nigeria Clean Up Criticisms, FCPA Pause and the Slow March Back to Conflict in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇳🇬 Shell allegedly ignored repeated warnings about corruption and mismanagement in its $1bn oil pollution clean-up operation in Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s Ogoniland region. Whistleblowers claim that Shell was aware that the clean-up project was awarding contracts to inexperienced companies, falsifying lab results, and inflating costs. The revelations come as Shell faces a High Court trial in London this week, where 50,000 Ogoniland residents seek compensation for oil spills that occurred between 1989 and 2020. [More - BBC]\n⚖️ President Trump signed an executive order to pause enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), which prohibits US companies from bribing foreign officials for business advantages. The order directs the US Attorney General to pause cases for 180 days, review past cases and issue new guidelines. Trump argues that current enforcement puts American companies at a competitive disadvantage internationally. [More - Bloomberg]\n🇵🇸 The Israel - Hamas ceasefire seems close to collapse as offhand remarks by President Trump — that all hostages should be released by Saturday — have been echoed by Israeli leaders, significantly altering the terms of the deal. Hamas will refuse to accept these changes and still accuses Israel of breaking the terms of the deal, specifically around military action in Gaza and food deliveries, making the collapse of the ceasefire all but certain. Israeli hardliners are further emboldened by Trump’s comments on the need to expel Palestinians from Gaza despite widespread condemnation and a rejection of this plan from neighboring states. [More - AlJazeera]\nKey Metrics WTI is $73.52 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 11 2025 21:16 UTC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable 🇭🇷 Croatia\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEurope News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economy is facing a downturn, with the retail sector experiencing a slight declin\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/12/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-d111/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"shell-nigeria-clean-up-criticisms-fcpa-pause-and-the-slow-march-back-to-conflict-in-gaza\"\u003eShell Nigeria Clean Up Criticisms, FCPA Pause and the Slow March Back to Conflict in Gaza\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇳🇬 Shell allegedly ignored repeated warnings about corruption and mismanagement in its $1bn oil pollution clean-up operation in Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s Ogoniland region. Whistleblowers claim that Shell was aware that the clean-up project was awarding contracts to inexperienced companies, falsifying lab results, and inflating costs. The revelations come as Shell faces a High Court trial in London this week, where 50,000 Ogoniland residents seek compensation for oil spills that occurred between 1989 and 2020. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0rqe85q1jno\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":" Decis Audio Briefing Demo[ The world doesn\u0026rsquo;t need a new podcast (but you might) Andrew Sheves\n🙀 My mind is officially blown.\nI tested Google’s Notebook LM (no, I don’t know why this took me so long to test) and am really impressed with the results. I gave it all of last week’s regional reports and it turned these into a conversation-style podcast. But it’s not just two voices reading the reports verbatim: it’s a natural-sounding discussion.\nBut what really caught my attention was the context that Notebook LLM added in addition to the ‘raw’ reporting. For example, the metrics at the start of each report just include the commodity price or value but in the discussion, the script takes the price of wheat and extrapolates that to bread prices and how these affect people.\nGreat context and really impressive.\nHear for yourself.\nI did clip this about halfway as it started to repeat the topics in more depth, and there are a few other tweaks I would make. However, given that all I did was drop five documents into the notebook and hit ‘go’, I’m really impressed.\nThe Team in Action…\nThe Ask But here’s the important question: what do you think? Personally, I love listening to the news but that’s not for everyone. So please take a minute to let me know which format works best for you.\nHow do you like your news? Select the delivery format you prefer- 📝 Newsletter 🎙️ Audio 📝 + 🎙️ News plus audio ﹛﹜Data feed (API) 🛒 Give me everything Login or Please let me know which format(s) you prefer and leave any comments you have. Any insights — good, bad, even the ugly — are helpful. Thank you!\nDecis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/11/decis-audio-briefing-demo/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDecis Audio Briefing Demo[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"the-world-doesnt-need-a-new-podcast-but-you-might\"\u003eThe world doesn\u0026rsquo;t need a new podcast (but you might)\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🙀 My mind is officially blown.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI tested Google’s Notebook LM (no, I don’t know why this took me so long to test) and am \u003cstrong\u003ereally\u003c/strong\u003e impressed with the results. I gave it all of last week’s regional reports and it turned these into a conversation-style podcast. But it’s not just two voices reading the reports verbatim: it’s a natural-sounding discussion.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis Audio Briefing Demo"},{"content":"Gaza ceasefire teeters; Indian forces kill 31 rebels; Cook Islands-China deal sparks tension Andrew Sheves\nGood morning.\n🇵🇸 The ceasefire in Gaza is close to collapse as Hamas has suspended hostage transfers, accusing Israel of “violations and its failure to comply with the terms of the agreement.” Israel has responded by placing its military on high alert, while Donald Trump has said that if all hostages are not released by Saturday, the deal should be scrapped. (Note, the deal does not call for all hostages to be released by Saturday but in a phased transfer through March 1.) [Live coverage - BBC]\n🇮🇳 Indian security forces killed 31 suspected Maoist rebels and lost two personnel in a major gun battle in Chhattisgarh state\u0026rsquo;s Indravati area on February 9, 2025. This marks the deadliest clash of 2025 and follows two other significant encounters in January where Indian forces killed 24 rebels. The Maoist rebels, known as Naxals, have been fighting since 1967 for increased rights and resources for India\u0026rsquo;s poor Indigenous communities, with the government aiming to end the insurgency by 2026. [More - AlJazeera]\n🇨🇰 The Cook Islands plans to sign a partnership deal with China this week during its first-ever state visit to Beijing, creating tension with New Zealand, which says it wasn\u0026rsquo;t properly consulted. Under a longstanding \u0026ldquo;free association\u0026rdquo; agreement, the Cook Islands relies on New Zealand for defense and financial support, while its citizens can live and work there as New Zealand citizens. The proposed deal is expected to cover infrastructure, trade, tourism, and deep-sea mining, though opposition leaders have criticized the lack of public consultation about the agreement. [More - BBC]\nLive Country Data, Connected in Minutes We’re all short of time and one thing I am incredibly focused on with Decis is getting you the information you need as easily and quickly as possible. Why would you have to jump through hoops to set up a data service or wait for the analyst to get you a country brief?\nSo when I built the API, the intent was to make everything as smooth as possible: the sign up, coverage selection, connection to your systems.\nWhat does that mean in reality?\nIt means you can be set up and connected in just a couple of minutes. Here’s how.\nTry the API yourself - api.decis.ai (And if you beat my time, let me know.)\nKey Metrics WTI is $73.52 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 10 2025 21:16 UTC\nAmericas Carpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/11/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"gaza-ceasefire-teeters-indian-forces-kill-31-rebels-cook-islands-china-deal-sparks-tension\"\u003eGaza ceasefire teeters; Indian forces kill 31 rebels; Cook Islands-China deal sparks tension\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸 The ceasefire in Gaza is close to collapse as Hamas has suspended hostage transfers, accusing Israel of “\u003cem\u003eviolations and its failure to comply with the terms of the agreement.\u003c/em\u003e” Israel has responded by placing its military on high alert, while Donald Trump has said that if all hostages are not released by Saturday, the deal should be scrapped. (\u003cem\u003eNote, the deal does not call for all hostages to be released by Saturday but in a phased transfer through March 1.\u003c/em\u003e) [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c2056vkpkrgt\"\u003eLive coverage - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Trade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.\nPrepare for More Trade Uncertainty Last week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains.\nMeanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [More Bloomberg] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [More - Politico]\nFinally, instead of a measured opening salvo in a series of negotiations, experts describe Trump’s attempt to shock Beijing into a trade deal as having backfired and predict a full-blown trade war. [More - FT]\nFor speculators, this is a fantastic situation as prices whipsaw in response to each piece of news. But for most businesses — those who are always keen to remind us that they crave stability — this is a nightmare. For them, the only certainty at the moment is more uncertainty.\nThis makes it hard for businesses to plan but it’s not a stretch to say that planning for the worst-case scenarios — up to and including COVID levels of disruption — is a worthwhile exercise for leadership teams everywhere.\nWhite House Visits to Watch Jordan’s King Abdullah and India’s Prime Minister Modi are both due to visit the White House this week and there is a possible call between Trump and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. Each meeting may produce headlines, but looking past any fireworks will help identify how issues such as Gaza are likely to progress in the long term.\n{The Decis API is Live!} Picture this: Your risk assessments, FOREX analysis, or destination risk tracking are always up to date, right in the tools you already use.\nThe best part? It just takes a few clicks to set up your live country data feed. Choose your coverage areas, grab the pre-built code, and you\u0026rsquo;re up and running.\nThe Decis API feeds country stability data right into your Google Sheet, Excel workbooks or software and you can set it up in under 3 minutes (here’s the proof).\nMultiple pricing tiers allow you to pick the coverage that’s right for you, so whether you\u0026rsquo;re tracking three countries or 130, there\u0026rsquo;s an option that fits.\nIt’s time to make the data work for you, not the other way around.\nThe Decis API is Live [Try it for free](https://api.decis.ai/?utm_\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/10/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-e25d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trade-uncertainty-is-the-new-normal-and-the-api-is-live\"\u003eTrade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning, and Happy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"prepare-for-more-trade-uncertainty\"\u003ePrepare for More Trade Uncertainty\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLast week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-09/trump-plans-to-announce-25-steel-aluminum-tariffs-on-monday\"\u003eMore Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-builds-anti-trump-trade-bazooka/\"\u003eMore - Politico\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"ICC Sanctions and Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Rare Earth in Trump\u0026rsquo;s Sights Andrew Sheves ⚖️ The US has sanctioned the International Criminal Court, levying travel and financial restrictions on senior ICC staff and family members. This follows the court\u0026rsquo;s charges against Israeli politicians last year in connection with the war in Gaza but at the signing, President Trump said any court member who opened up cases against the US or other allies would be similarly sanctioned. These sanctions originated in Congress last year and the US is not a signatory to the ICC charter but Trump’s move further weakens the Court and reinforces the perception that it is only there to pursue criminals from the Global South. [More - BBC]\n🇺🇦 Any peace deal in Ukraine might be contingent on an agreement to pay back US support in the form of rare earth minerals, according to reports of what President Trump thinks a deal should include. This would significantly diversify the US’s supply of these critical minerals but would significantly hamper Ukraine’s reconstruction. Any deal where Ukraine had to pay back US contributions to the war — instead of benefitting from US reconstruction aid — would place significant additional burdens on the EU. [More - AlJazeera]\nSelf-Serve {API Access} Opens Up Monday APIs (application programming interface) used to confuse and terrify me, but I’ve come to realize that there are no bad APIs, only bad documentation and confusing connections.\nThis week, I’ve spent a lot of time simplifying the Decis API so it’s not just a developer-level access point but a much more user-friendly tool.\nNow, in addition to being something a developer can use in their code, the API can be integrated with Excel or GoogleSheets. Or maybe added to an RSS feed.\nSet up is a snap, and all the documentation, code snippets, and guides are in one place, so you can have a live country data feed inside your system in just a few minutes.\nBut the technology isn’t important: the outcome is.\nNow, you can have the Decis country data fed directly into the tools you use on your desktop so your country risk assessments or FOREX trading portfolio is always up to date. And my aim is that you can do it without being technical at all - in the case of Google Sheets, it only takes half a dozen clicks to set up\n(Don’t worry, devs, there’s still a GitHub page and manual setup if you prefer playing on hard mode.)\nSo if you fancy having dynamic country stability data fed directly into your day-to-day tools, you’ll love what I’m sharing on Monday.\n(And with multiple access tiers, you’ll even love the pricing.)\nKey Metrics WTI is $73.52 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 06 2025 21:16 UTC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central Afr\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/07/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-eb19/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"icc-sanctions-and-ukraines-rare-earth-in-trumps-sights\"\u003eICC Sanctions and Ukraine\u0026rsquo;s Rare Earth in Trump\u0026rsquo;s Sights\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n⚖️ The US has sanctioned the International Criminal Court, levying travel and financial restrictions on senior ICC staff and family members. This follows the court\u0026rsquo;s charges against Israeli politicians last year in connection with the war in Gaza but at the signing, President Trump said any court member who opened up cases against the US or other allies would be similarly sanctioned. These sanctions originated in Congress last year and the US is not a signatory to the ICC charter but Trump’s move further weakens the Court and reinforces the perception that it is only there to pursue criminals from the Global South. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2p19l24g2o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Quiet, too quiet\u0026hellip;. Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nNo headlines today.\nI do have something exciting to announce tomorrow when I’ll be sharing full details on how to access the complete news feed as an API. That way, you’ll be able to have the stories, updates, and stability ratings piped directly into your app, website, and even spreadsheets.\nMore tomorrow.\nDaily News for Curious Minds Be the smartest person in the room by reading 1440! Dive into 1440, where 4 million Americans find their daily, fact-based news fix. We navigate through 100+ sources to deliver a comprehensive roundup from every corner of the internet – politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a quick, 5-minute newsletter. It\u0026rsquo;s completely free and devoid of bias or political influence, ensuring you get the facts straight. Subscribe to 1440 today.\nSign up now!\nKey Metrics WTI is $73.51 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 05 2025 21:16 UTC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary The National University of Singapore is set to launch Acacia College, its first residential college dedicated to Artificial Intelligence, in August. This initiative aims to equip students with a comprehensive understanding of AI and its applications, underscoring Singapore\u0026rsquo;s commitment to remain at the forefront of technological advancements in the rapidly evolving field of AI [SOURCE - Malay Mail].\nIn parallel, the Singapore government has announced plans to raise salaries for 37,000 healthcare workers by mid-2025, a move designed to improve working conditions and attract talent in the healthcare sector [SOURCE - Malay Mail]. This decision reflects a broader trend in Asia, where governments are increasingly recognizing the importance of investing in human capital to bolster public services.\nMeanwhile, the region\u0026rsquo;s technology sector is witnessing significant shifts. Microsoft has signed a land deal in Johor, Malaysia, to expand its data center presence, high\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/06/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-f2e1/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"quiet-too-quiet\"\u003eQuiet, too quiet\u0026hellip;.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo headlines today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI do have something exciting to announce tomorrow when I’ll be sharing full details on how to access the complete news feed as an API. That way, you’ll be able to have the stories, updates, and stability ratings piped directly into your app, website, and even spreadsheets.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMore tomorrow.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"daily-news-for-curious-minds\"\u003eDaily News for Curious Minds\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBe the smartest person in the room by reading 1440! Dive into 1440, where 4 million Americans find their daily, fact-based news fix. We navigate through 100+ sources to deliver a comprehensive roundup from every corner of the internet – politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a quick, 5-minute newsletter. It\u0026rsquo;s completely free and devoid of bias or political influence, ensuring you get the facts straight. Subscribe to 1440 today.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Shooting in Belgium and Sweden and Trump\u0026rsquo;s Plan to Occupy Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇧🇪 Belgian police are looking for two to three gunmen who are on the run in Brussels after a shooting outside a metro station this morning. There were no casualties in the incident at around 06:15 local this morning, but stations were closed, and morning rush hour was disrupted. The men were armed with Klashnokov-style weapons and remain on the loose. [More - BBC]\n🇸🇪 10 people were killed and five others injured in a shooting at an adult education center in Orebro, West of Stockholm. The gunman is believed to be among those killed. Police are discounting terrorism as the cause, but the motive remains unclear. This is Sweden’s worst mass shooting. [More - AlJazeera]\n🇵🇸 In a joint news conference with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump proposed that the US take a “long-term ownership position” in Gaza to rebuild it and suggested Gaza’s Palestinians move to other countries while this took place. Egypt and Jordan have been under pressure to accept Palestinian refugees throughout the Gaza conflict. Both are reluctant for political and security reasons, but primarily as neither wants to be seen as facilitating the ethnic cleansing of the strip. Jordan\u0026rsquo;s King Abdullah is scheduled to meet with Trump on February 11. [More - Washington Post]\nKey Metrics WTI is $73.51 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Feb 04 2025 21:17 UTC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s ambitious plan to overhaul its economy for greater ecological sustainability faces significant opposition, with polls indicating that a majority of voters are against the proposed measures aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2035. This resistance comes at a time when the Swiss economy is experiencing record growth in exports, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, raising concerns that failure to implement ecological reforms could hinder future economic progress [[SOURCE - Swissinfo]](https://www.swis\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/05/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-0af4/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"shooting-in-belgium-and-sweden-and-trumps-plan-to-occupy-gaza\"\u003eShooting in Belgium and Sweden and Trump\u0026rsquo;s Plan to Occupy Gaza\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇧🇪 Belgian police are looking for two to three gunmen who are on the run in Brussels after a shooting outside a metro station this morning. There were no casualties in the incident at around 06:15 local this morning, but stations were closed, and morning rush hour was disrupted. The men were armed with Klashnokov-style weapons and remain on the loose. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4mvl1ngk1o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Killing the chickens to frighten the monkeys Andrew Sheves\n** In partnership with **\n](https://l.join1440.com/bh?utm_source=beehiiv\u0026amp;utm_medium=cpc\u0026amp;utm_campaign=decis_sitreps_XO7DWEQZLV\u0026amp;utm_content=prospecting_critical_thinkers\u0026amp;_bhiiv=opp_5ec2c2df-c1d8-467d-9427-8e335f9f3f2b_1b75ca79\u0026amp;bhcl_id=f9eba0af-7b0c-4a59-9c3c-6085fb567559_SUBSCRIBER_ID_{{email_address_id}}) Good morning.\nA commentator on Bloomberg yesterday quoted the proverb “kill the chickens to frighten the monkeys” and explained how Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are actually a signal to China: ’See how tough I can be on my allies. Now imagine what I could do to you.’ Unfortunately, no matter how you make the monkeys feel, you’ve still killed a few chickens.\n🇨🇳 Whatever his intent, Trump deferred the Mexico and Canada tariffs yesterday but left the restrictions in place for China. Now China has retaliated. From Bloomberg.\nBeijing imposed a 15% levy on less than $5 billion of US energy imports and a moderate 10% fee on American oil and agricultural equipment on Tuesday, moments after new US tariffs entered effect. China said it will also investigate Google for alleged antitrust violations, although Alphabet Inc.’s search services have been unavailable in the country since 2010.\nIn more targeted measures, authorities put Calvin Klein owner PVH Corp. and US gene sequencing company Illumina Inc. on a so-called blacklist of entities that could affect their sizable operations in China, and imposed new export control on tungsten and other critical metals used in electronic, aviation and defense industries.\nBloomberg Trade experts classified China’s retaliation as measured and designed to make a point without inflaming the situation.\n🇮🇱 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with President Trump today as his first official foreign guest at the White House. Trump is keen to end the conflict in Gaza and has significant influence on Netanyahu but ending the conflict would put the Israeli PM in a difficult position politically and personally. [More - Washington Post]\n🇨🇩 The Rwandan-backed M23 rebels who hold the Goma region in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo delivered a ceasefire to allow humanitarian assistance to enter the areas. A regional peace summit is planned for this weekend.[More - AlJazeera]\nKey Metrics WTI is $73.51 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.794 (Up)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;|\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/04/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-plus-stability-ratings-a663/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"killing-the-chickens-to-frighten-the-monkeys\"\u003eKilling the chickens to frighten the monkeys\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e** In partnership with **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e](\u003ca href=\"https://l.join1440.com/bh?utm_source=beehiiv\u0026amp;utm_medium=cpc\u0026amp;utm_campaign=decis_sitreps_XO7DWEQZLV\u0026amp;utm_content=prospecting_critical_thinkers\u0026amp;_bhiiv=opp_5ec2c2df-c1d8-467d-9427-8e335f9f3f2b_1b75ca79\u0026amp;bhcl_id=f9eba0af-7b0c-4a59-9c3c-6085fb567559_SUBSCRIBER_ID_%7B%7Bemail_address_id%7D%7D\"\u003ehttps://l.join1440.com/bh?utm_source=beehiiv\u0026amp;utm_medium=cpc\u0026amp;utm_campaign=decis_sitreps_XO7DWEQZLV\u0026amp;utm_content=prospecting_critical_thinkers\u0026amp;_bhiiv=opp_5ec2c2df-c1d8-467d-9427-8e335f9f3f2b_1b75ca79\u0026amp;bhcl_id=f9eba0af-7b0c-4a59-9c3c-6085fb567559_SUBSCRIBER_ID_{{email_address_id}}\u003c/a\u003e) Good morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA commentator on Bloomberg yesterday quoted the proverb “\u003cem\u003ekill the chickens to frighten the monkeys\u003c/em\u003e” and explained how Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are actually a signal to China: ’\u003cem\u003eSee how tough I can be on my allies. Now imagine what I could do to you\u003c/em\u003e.’  Unfortunately, no matter how you make the monkeys feel, you’ve still killed a few chickens.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Tariffs All the Way Down and Musk Targets USAID Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.\nTariffs All the Way Down It was tariffs all the way down in Washington, Ottowa, and Mexico City this weekend as President Trump’s 25% import taxes kicked in, spurring retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico.\nMeanwhile, in addition to attacking close allies, 10% tariffs were also levied against Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg]\nAccording to some report, in addition to the tarrifs, de minimus entries and duty drawback rules concerning Chinese imports are being suspended. De minimus rules allow small packages from China to enter the US without duty being paid - this is what the entire dropshipping industry, fast fashion, and half of Amazon stores rely on. So imports to the US are interrupted or more expensive.\nMeanwhile, *duty drawback *allows manufacturers to obtain refunds for duty paid on imported parts that are later exported as whole goods. Meanwhile, the profit margin of the exported item goes down.\nI’ll leave the Wall Street Journal to sum this up.\nMeanwhile, USAID is the first government department that is coming under the full scrutiny of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). USAID was hit by the spending freeze early last week and the Agency’s website went dark on Friday. Musk has vowed to kill the agency that is responsible for distributing billions of dollars of aid and life-saving support to countries worldwide. [More - AlJazeera]\nComment - Why USAID has provoked so much anger is unclear. The agency provides an enormous amount of global good, provides the USA with substantial goodwill and is a key lever of America’s soft power. As it only accounts for 0.2% of the federal budget, it will make almost no dent in the trillions Musk hopes to cut from the government, and America will be weaker for the agency’s demise.\nfrom USA Spending.gov\nGlobal Stability Ratings Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehii\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/02/03/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-76d3/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"tariffs-all-the-way-down-and-musk-targets-usaid\"\u003eTariffs All the Way Down and Musk Targets USAID\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning, and Happy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"tariffs-all-the-way-down\"\u003eTariffs All the Way Down\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt was tariffs all the way down in Washington, Ottowa, and Mexico City this weekend as President Trump’s 25% import taxes kicked in, spurring retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, in addition to attacking close allies, 10% tariffs were also levied against Chinese imports. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-01/trump-hits-china-canada-mexico-with-tariffs-to-open-trade-war\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to some report, in addition to the tarrifs, \u003cem\u003ede minimus entries\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eduty drawback\u003c/em\u003e rules concerning Chinese imports are being suspended. \u003cem\u003eDe minimus\u003c/em\u003e rules allow small packages from China to enter the US without duty being paid - this is what the entire dropshipping industry, fast fashion, and half of Amazon stores rely on. So imports to the US are interrupted or more expensive.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"Storms approach California, Tariff-eve for Canada and Mexico, UNRWA Shuts and DC Airport Disaster Andrew Sheves ☔️ An atmospheric river approaching America’s west coast is expected to cause flooding and landslides. Recent wildfires have destroyed significant numbers of trees and undergrowth, which increases the chances of mudslides and runoffs in these areas. [More - BBC]\n🛑 President Trump confirmed his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning February 1 (Saturday). He was less definitive on China, so it is unclear if the proposed 10% tax would be levied on Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg]\n🇺🇳 The United Nations Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) ceased operations in Gaza as an Israeli law banning the organization came into effect. Although Hamas governed Gaza, UNRWA was the administrative backbone for the strip, running hospitals, schools and food distribution. The ban was imposed after it appeared that some UNRWA staff were also Hamas members but the ban leaves Gaza without any real form of administration and extends the humanitarian impact of the war. [More - alJazeera]\n🇺🇸 America suffered its worst aviation disaster in decades when a regional jet on approach to DC’s Regan National Airport collided with a military helicopter on Wednesday night. There were no survivors from the 64 onboard the jet or the three helicopter crew. [Live updates - Wahington Post]\nSelf-Serve {API Access} Opens Up Next Week APIs (application programming interface) used to confuse and terrify me, but I’ve come to realize that there are no bad APIs, only bad documentation and confusing connections. So I’ve spent a lot of time cleaning up the Decis API so it’s not a developer-level access point but a much more user-friendly tool.\nBut why does that matter if you’re not a developer?\nBecause a simple, self-serve API is something you can connect to a range of services. Services you use all the time like Excel or GoogleSheets. Or maybe to an RSS feed. So the technology isn’t important: the outcome is.\nNow, you can have the Decis country data fed directly into the tools you use on your desktop so your country risk assessments or FOREX trading portfolio is always up to date. And my aim is that you can do it without being technical at all - in the case of Excel, it only takes half a dozen clicks to set up\n(Don’t worry, devs, there’s still a GitHub page and manual setup if you prefer playing on hard mode.)\nSo if you fancy having dynamic country stability data fed directly into your day-to-day tools, you’ll love what I’m sharing next week. (You’ll like the price even more.)\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Cong\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/31/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-3785/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"storms-approach-california-tariff-eve-for-canada-and-mexico-unrwa-shuts-and-dc-airport-disaster\"\u003eStorms approach California, Tariff-eve for Canada and Mexico, UNRWA Shuts and DC Airport Disaster\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n☔️ An atmospheric river approaching America’s west coast is expected to cause flooding and landslides. Recent wildfires have destroyed significant numbers of trees and undergrowth, which increases the chances of mudslides and runoffs in these areas. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/weather/articles/cj659ey321po\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛑 President Trump confirmed his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning February 1 (Saturday). He was less definitive on China, so it is unclear if the proposed 10% tax would be levied on Chinese imports. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/trump-says-he-ll-hit-canada-mexico-with-25-tariffs-on-saturday\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"M23 reinforce hold in the DRC and al-Sharaa named interim President in Syria. Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇨🇩 Fighting between the M23 rebels and the Congolese military has intensified in the Goma region of Eastern Congo. Frustration and anger have also boiled over in the capital, Kinshasa, where embassies have been attacked by locals, blaming Europe and the US for supporting Rwanda, which is believed to be sponsoring the rebels. Regional peace talks are scheduled by DCR PresidentPresident Félix Tshisekedi is refusing to take part. [More - BBC]\n🇸🇾 In Syria, two months after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, former HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa was named interim president and all military organizations in Syria, including HTS, were disbanded as was the Syrian Baath party. Regional representatives and members of various militias and ethnic groups attended the meeting in Damascus, which are widely seen as confidence and stability-building moves by al-Sharaa and the internment administration. [More - Al Jazeera]\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇨🇳 China, 🇮🇳 India, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, President Tharman has issued a stark warning about an unprecedented jobs crisis looming over the nation, attributing it to technological changes and evolving workforce demands. This concern has prompted proactive measures from businesses, such as AIA Singapore\u0026rsquo;s partnership with Raffles Hospital to enhance healthcare accessibility, recognizing the growing demand for quality healthcare among Singaporeans [SOURCE - Manila Times].\nIn response to the changing economic environment, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s Monetary Authority has eased monetary policy for the first time since 2020, lowering the core inflation forecast for 2025. This move aims to mitigate the economic impact while supporting growth [SOURCE - Channel NewsAsia]. Additionally, the country has seen a reduction in retrenchments, indicating that efforts to bolster employment may be yielding positive results [[SOURCE - Channel NewsAsia]](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/retrenchments-fall-2024-employment-growth-slows-labour-market-mom-4898341?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referr\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/30/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-e6f3/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"m23-reinforce-hold-in-the-drc-and-al-sharaa-named-interim-president-in-syria\"\u003eM23 reinforce hold in the DRC and al-Sharaa named interim President in Syria.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇩 Fighting between the M23 rebels and the Congolese military has intensified in the Goma region of Eastern Congo. Frustration and anger have also boiled over in the capital, Kinshasa, where embassies have been attacked by locals, blaming Europe and the US for supporting Rwanda, which is believed to be sponsoring the rebels. Regional peace talks are scheduled by DCR PresidentPresident Félix Tshisekedi is refusing to take part. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0j4d7v229o\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Crowd surge in India, Trump threatens Taiwan plus the Unintended Consequences of the Transition Kick In Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇮🇳 A crowd surge at a Hindi festival in Northern India raised fears of multiple casualties but early reports are unclear. Up to 100 million people are anticipated at the Kumbh Mela festival in Sangam where devotees gather every 12 years to bathe in the confluence of two sacred rivers [More - BBC]\n🇹🇼 In addition to tariffs against countries, President Trump announced that sectors would also be subject to import taxes. Among other sectors, Trump specifically called out Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, adding further complexity and confusion to US supply chains. [More - Washington Post]\n🇺🇸 The Trump team’s ‘shock and awe’ approach to the transition is causing unintended consequences and confusion in defense and national security. Confusion over funding rattled the defense sector [more - Politico] and firing at advisory boards Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) weakens America’s ability to respond to cyber attacks [more - Axios].\nNew Technical Article\nYou’ll have heard all about the DeepSeek models causing chaos in the AI world, but are they better than the others on offer? I ran some bench tests earlier today to find out and was pleasantly surprised.\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇮 Slovenia\nEurope News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economy remains a focal point of interest, bolstered by President Cyril Ramaphosa\u0026rsquo;s endorsement of the country as an attractive investment destination, thanks to its stable business environment. This affirmation coincides with the signing of a trade deal between Switzerland and Thailand, aimed at strengthening economic ties between the two nations [SOURCE - SwissInfo].\nHowever, environmental concerns are surfacing as a report reveals tha\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/29/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-5cd7/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"crowd-surge-in-india-trump-threatens-taiwan-plus-the-unintended-consequences-of-the-transition-kick-in\"\u003eCrowd surge in India, Trump threatens Taiwan plus the Unintended Consequences of the Transition Kick In\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇮🇳 A crowd surge at a Hindi festival in Northern India raised fears of multiple casualties but early reports are unclear. Up to 100 million people are anticipated at the Kumbh Mela festival in Sangam where devotees gather every 12 years to bathe in the confluence of two sacred rivers [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgq07z0yexvt\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"DeepSeek R1 vs Claude Sonnet 3.5 There’s been a lot of excitement around the Chinese Deepseek r1 model that was released last week. Deepseek is a reasoning, chain of thought (CoT) model that’s shaken things up due to the comparatively tiny budget ($ 6 million, which is probably OpenAI’s o1 cost to run its warm-up sequence) needed to train a frontier model of this sort.\n(There’s also been a fair amount of dread as US AI models are no longer the only game in town and Deepseek was considerably cheaper than an of the US alternatives. US firms were hammered in Monday’s trading with over $100bn\nSo fast, cheap, but is it any good?\nMore specifically, is it any good for the use-cases we’re tackling at Decis? We know it will be amazing at math and coding but what about geopolitics?\nSo we gave a Deepseek r1 variant and Claude’s Sonnect 3.5 the same challenges to see how the results compare.\nThere’s concern among some in the US that Deepseek r1 is a Chinese model and any data sent there is comporomised so we ran the test using a US local model (deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b) hosted on Groq.\nI’m using Sonnet 3.5 as the comarason. That’s the model I’ve been using in the reasoning engine so I’m familiar with it’s capabilities.\nShort on time? Jump to the conclusion\nChallenge 1 - Negotiations The models were presented with a corporate acquisition scenario and asked to devise the optimum strategy for the acquiring party. The models were given an expensive prompt and set of rules to follow as system commands and given this scenario.\nDB Group (a database and cloud computing firm) wishes to acquire PeopleTeam (an HR software firm). Both are US-based firms. What is DB Groups optimum strategy? Party Goals: DB Group: •\tAcquire PeopleTeam for \u0026lt; $26/share •\tEliminate key competitor •\tGain enterprise software market share PeopleTeam •\tSell for no less than $31/share •\tMaintain independence •\tProtect employee jobs •\tPreserve customer relationships Specific Conditions: •\tPeopleTeam was trading at $19/share prior to the acquisition talks •\t18-month deadline (regulatory approvals) •\tCustomer refund program liability ($2.4B) •\tDOJ antitrust review required •\tDelaware corporate law constraints## DeeepSeek r1 Alright, I\u0026rsquo;m trying to figure out the optimal strategy for DB Group to acquire PeopleTeam. Let me start by understanding the scenario and the goals of both parties.\nDB Group wants to acquire PeopleTeam for less than $26 per share. Their main objectives are to eliminate a key competitor and gain more market share in enterprise software. On the other hand, PeopleTeam is looking to sell for no less than $31 per share, maintain their independence, protect their employees\u0026rsquo; jobs, and preserve their customer relationships.\nFirst, I need to consider the conditions given. PeopleTeam\u0026rsquo;s stock was at $19 before talks, which is lower than both companies\u0026rsquo; targets. There\u0026rsquo;s an 18-month deadline for regulatory approvals, which is a significant constraint because it gives a timeframe for the deal to be completed. The customer refund program liability of $2.4 billion is a big issue that DB Group would probably want to address, maybe by negotiating who bears that cost. The DOJ antitrust review is another hurdle; DB Group must ensure the deal doesn\u0026rsquo;t violate any antitrust laws. Lastly, Delaware corporate law constraints might affect how the acquisition is structured, especially regarding shareholder approvals and potential lawsuits.\nNow, looking at the negotiation rules, I have to make sure DB Group adheres to the \u0026ldquo;must do\u0026rdquo; and avoids the \u0026ldquo;must not do\u0026rdquo; rules. The \u0026ldquo;must do\u0026rdquo; rules emphasize creating high combined value, understanding the other party\u0026rsquo;s goals, fairness, exploring alternatives, using data, favoring long-term relationships, explicit agreements, and proportional concessions. The \u0026ldquo;must not do\u0026rdquo; rules warn against misrepresentation, exploiting vulnerabilities, ignoring priorities, conceding on non-negotiables, being unprepared, damaging relationships, vague terms, and disproportionate concessions.\nSo, the first step is to create plausible scenarios that meet DB Group\u0026rsquo;s goal of acquiring PeopleTeam for under $26 per share while considering PeopleTeam\u0026rsquo;s goals. Let me brainsto\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/28/reasoning-engine-benchmarks-jan-2025/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"deepseek-r1-vs-claude-sonnet-35\"\u003eDeepSeek R1 vs Claude Sonnet 3.5\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere’s been a lot of excitement around the \u003ca href=\"https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1\"\u003eChinese Deepseek r1 model\u003c/a\u003e that was released last week. Deepseek is a reasoning, chain of thought (CoT) model that’s shaken things up due to the comparatively tiny budget ($ 6 million, which is probably OpenAI’s o1 cost to run its warm-up sequence) needed to train a frontier model of this sort.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(There’s also been a fair amount of dread as US AI models are no longer the only game in town and Deepseek was considerably cheaper than an of the US alternatives. US firms were hammered in Monday’s trading with over $100bn\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Reasoning Engine Benchmarks - Jan 2025"},{"content":"Andrew Sheves\nGood morning. Apologies for the lack of a SITREP yesterday. The stability ratings are included below.\nCountry Stability Ratings 🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable\n🇦🇱 Albania is Weak\n🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\n🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\n🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\n🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\n🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak\n🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\n🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\n🇦🇹 Austria is Weak\n🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak\n🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\n🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak\n🇧🇧 Barbados is Stable\n🇧🇾 Belarus is Weak\n🇧🇪 Belgium is Stable\n🇧🇿 Belize is Weak\n🇧🇯 Benin is Weak\n🇧🇹 Bhutan is Weak\n🇧🇴 Bolivia is Unstable\n🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak\n🇧🇼 Botswana is Stable\n🇧🇷 Brazil is Weak\n🇧🇳 Brunei is Stable\n🇧🇫 Burkina Faso is Unstable\n🇧🇮 Burundi is Weak\n🇰🇭 Cambodia is Weak\n🇨🇲 Cameroon is Unstable\n🇨🇦 Canada is Stable\n🇨🇻 Cape Verde is Stable\n🇨🇫 Central African Republic is Unstable\n🇹🇩 Chad is Unstable\n🇨🇱 Chile is Stable\n🇨🇳 China is Weak\n🇨🇴 Colombia is Weak\n🇰🇲 Comoros is Weak\n🇨🇷 Costa Rica is Stable\n🇭🇷 Croatia is Stable\n🇨🇺 Cuba is Weak\n🇨🇾 Cyprus is Stable\n🇨🇿 Czech Republic is Stable\n🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable\n🇩🇰 Denmark is Stable\n🇩🇯 Djibouti is Weak\n🇩🇲 Dominica is Weak\n🇩🇴 Dominican Republic is Weak\n🇹🇱 East Timor is Weak\n🇪🇨 Ecuador is Unstable\n🇪🇬 Egypt is Weak\n🇸🇻 El Salvador is Weak\n🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea is Unstable\n🇪🇷 Eritrea is Weak\n🇪🇪 Estonia is Stable\n🇸🇿 Eswatini is Weak\n🇪🇹 Ethiopia is Weak\n🇫🇲 Federated States of Micronesia is Stable\n🇫🇯 Fiji is Stable\n🇫🇮 Finland is Stable\n🇫🇷 France is Weak\n🇬🇦 Gabon is Unstable\n🇬🇪 Georgia is Weak\n🇩🇪 Germany is Weak\n🇬🇭 Ghana is Stable\n🇬🇷 Greece is Stable\n🇬🇩 Grenada is Stable\n🇬🇹 Guatemala is Weak\n🇬🇳 Guinea is Unstable\n🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau is Unstable\n🇬🇾 Guyana is Weak\n🇭🇹 Haiti is Critically Unstable\n🇭🇳 Honduras is Unstable\n🇭🇺 Hungary is Weak\n🇮🇸 Iceland is Stable\n🇮🇳 India is Stable\n🇮🇩 Indonesia is Stable\n🇮🇷 Iran is Unstable\n🇮🇶 Iraq is Weak\n🇮🇪 Ireland is Stable\n🇮🇱 Israel is Weak\n🇮🇹 Italy is Weak\n🇨🇮 Ivory Coast is Weak\n🇯🇲 Jamaica is Weak\n🇯🇵 Japan is Stable\n🇯🇴 Jordan is Weak\n🇰🇿 Kazakhstan is Weak\n🇰🇪 Kenya is Weak\n🇰🇮 Kiribati is Weak\n🇰🇼 Kuwait is Stable\n🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan is Weak\n🇱🇦 Laos is Weak\n🇱🇻 Latvia is Stable\n🇱🇧 Lebanon is Unstable\n🇱🇸 Lesotho is Weak\n🇱🇷 Liberia is Weak\n🇱🇾 Libya is Unstable\n🇱🇮 Liechtenstein is Stable\n🇱🇹 Lithuania is Stable\n🇱🇺 Luxembourg is Stable\n🇲🇰 North Macedonia is Weak\n🇲🇬 Madagascar is Weak\n🇲🇼 Malawi is Weak\n🇲🇾 Malaysia is Stable\n🇲🇻 Maldives is Weak\n🇲🇱 Mali is Unstable\n🇲🇹 Malta is Stable\n🇲🇭 Marshall Islands is Stable\n🇲🇷 Mauritania is Weak\n🇲🇺 Mauritius is Stable\n🇲🇽 Mexico is Weak\n🇲🇩 Moldova is Weak\n🇲🇨 Monaco is Stable\n🇲🇳 Mongolia is Stable\n🇲🇪 Montenegro is Weak\n🇲🇦 Morocco is Stable\n🇲🇿 Mozambique is Weak\n🇲🇲 Myanmar is Unstable\n🇳🇦 Namibia is Stable\n🇳🇷 Nauru is Weak\n🇳🇵 Nepal is Weak\n🇳🇱 Netherlands is Weak\n🇳🇿 New Zealand is Stable\n🇳🇮 Nicaragua is Unstable\n🇳🇪 Niger is Weak\n🇳🇬 Nigeria is Unstable\n🇰🇵 North Korea is Critically Unstable\n🇳🇴 Norway is Stable\n🇴🇲 Oman is Weak\n🇵🇰 Pakistan is Weak\n🇵🇼 Palau is Stable\n🇵🇦 Panama is Weak\n🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea is Weak\n🇵🇾 Paraguay\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/28/tuesday-sitrep-americas-focus-plus-stability-ratings/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning. Apologies for the lack of a SITREP yesterday. The stability ratings are included below.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"country-stability-ratings\"\u003eCountry Stability Ratings\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇱 Albania is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇴 Angola is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇺 Australia is Stable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇹 Austria is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus Plus Stability Ratings"},{"content":"What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like. Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.\nFor all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.\nTikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little.\nTrump probably knows deep down that there are some economic consequences for US consumers but why not slap on some tariffs for a week or two to show Xi he means business (and keep his campaign promise)?\nSo the lack of action in these two areas is a signal of sorts.\nThen, when asked about a ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump indicated that China would be part of any deal and that he and Xi had discussed Ukraine on a call last Friday.\nTaken together, you have a trifecta of issues, each of which could be addressed separately, but taken together, have much more consequence.\nTikTok is essentially inconsequential but a great bargaining chip and something you can make a lot of noise about.\nBut maybe the quieter, meaningful discussions will be over trade where tariffs are a means to an end: whittling down the trade deficit. Meanwhile, involving Beijing in resolving Ukraine would be a mark of respect towards China while also making pressuring Russia much easier for Trump.\nSo I wonder if Trump has his sights set on a Big Beautiful Deal with China as not only a win on the individual issues but a Nixon-to-China level of statesmanship.\nSuch a deal would be a win all round except for the big issue we’ve omitted so far: Taiwan.\nSo while Taiwan is still the world’s leading producer of silicon, the more diversification there is, the less important it becomes. And despite all the GOP complaints about the US CHIPS act in public, they’d probably agree that building fabs in the US is a great job creator, so that will survive the cuts. So in some minds, Taiwan will already be less important and not worth going to war over. Plus recent defense budget cuts in Taipei will further reinforce the idea for many in the US that Taiwan is taking advantage of America.\nTaken together, this raises the potential for America’s ‘strategic ambiguity’ over Taiwan may become more like ‘strategic ambivalence’. Maybe there’s a ‘do whatever the hell you want’ policy.\nSo, while my sense is that there might be a grand deal in the making, Taiwan might be more of a bargaining chip than a strategic imperative for Trump in any talks. Whatever the case, Taiwan’s importance seems diminished and this isn’t the administration that will go to the mat for an island halfway around the world.\nThis isn’t based on some high-level source or special insights into either China or the mind of Donald Trump. Rather, it’s that in a week of very public activity — executive orders, ICE raids, and terminations — what didn’t happen seems just as significant.\n(In a world where noise beats signal hand-down, I hesitate to share commentary like this. But there are times when I hope these observations can shine some light on what events to help you prepare. Please let me know if these are helpful.)\nOn to the regional ratings.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/24/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-fc68/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"what-a-big-deal-with-china-might-look-like\"\u003eWhat a Big Deal with China Might Look Like.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he \u003cem\u003edidn’t\u003c/em\u003e do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":" Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like. Andrew Sheves Apologies but an earlier version of the SITREP went out with some errors in it. Here’s the corrected version.\nGood morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.\nFor all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.\nTikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little.\nTrump probably knows deep down that there are some economic consequences for US consumers but why not slap on some tariffs for a week or two to show Xi he means business (and keep his campaign promise)?\nSo the lack of action in these two areas is a signal of sorts.\nThen, when asked about a ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump indicated that China would be part of any deal and that he and Xi had discussed Ukraine on a call last Friday.\nTaken together, you have a trifecta of issues, each of which could be addressed separately, but taken together, have much more consequence.\nTikTok is essentially inconsequential but a great bargaining chip and something you can make a lot of noise about.\nBut maybe the quieter, meaningful discussions will be over trade where tariffs are a means to an end: whittling down the trade deficit. Meanwhile, involving Beijing in resolving Ukraine would be a mark of respect towards China while also making pressuring Russia much easier for Trump.\nSo I wonder if Trump has his sights set on a Big Beautiful Deal with China as not only a win on the individual issues but a Nixon-to-China level of statesmanship.\nSuch a deal would be a win all round except for the big issue we’ve omitted so far: Taiwan.\nSo while Taiwan is still the world’s leading producer of silicon, the more diversification there is, the less important it becomes. And despite all the GOP complaints about the US CHIPS act in public, they’d probably agree that building fabs in the US is a great job creator, so that will survive the cuts. So in some minds, Taiwan will already be less important and not worth going to war over. Plus recent defense budget cuts in Taipei will further reinforce the idea for many in the US that Taiwan is taking advantage of America.\nTaken together, this raises the potential for America’s ‘strategic ambiguity’ over Taiwan may become more like ‘strategic ambivalence’. Maybe there’s a ‘do whatever the hell you want’ policy.\nSo, while my sense is that there might be a grand deal in the making, Taiwan might be more of a bargaining chip than a strategic imperative for Trump in any talks. Whatever the case, Taiwan’s importance seems diminished and this isn’t the administration that will go to the mat for an island halfway around the world.\nThis isn’t based on some high-level source or special insights into either China or the mind of Donald Trump. Rather, it’s that in a week of very public activity — executive orders, ICE raids, and terminations — what didn’t happen seems just as significant.\n(In a world where noise beats signal hand-down, I hesitate to share commentary like this. But there are times when I hope these observations can shine some light on what events to help you prepare. Please let me know if these are helpful.)\nOn to the regional ratings.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/24/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-corrected/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eFriday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"friday-sitrep-africa-focus-corrected\"\u003eFriday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"what-a-big-deal-with-china-might-look-like\"\u003eWhat a Big Deal with China Might Look Like.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eApologies but an earlier version of the SITREP went out with some errors in it. Here’s the corrected version.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he \u003cem\u003edidn’t\u003c/em\u003e do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus Corrected"},{"content":"Turkey / PKK Ceasefire Rumors and Houthis Suspend Read Sea Attacks Andrew Sheves Good morning. A brief reprieve from the Trump whirlwind…\n🇹🇷 The Middle East Institute’s Gönül Tol is reporting that **a deal between the Turkish government and the PKK is planned **that would see the Kurdish group cease military operations on February 15th. In return, there would be an amnesty in Turkey and a redrafting of the constitution to provide greater recognition of the Kurds. The full post follows.\n](https://x.com/gonultol/status/1882126703339991391)Gönül Tol on X\nThis would be a huge development if it came through as planned and would significantly change not just Turkey’s security but the dynamics in Northern Syria and Kurdistan. Follow Gönül Tol on X for more (and add Charles Lister for coverage of Syria).\n🚢 Cargo ship Galaxy Leader was released by Yemen’s Houthis in response to the Gaza peace deal. The ship and crew had been held since December 2023, and a message from the Houthi leadership announced an immediate cessation of attacks on ships, less those few Israeli-owned or Israeli-flagged vessels, which are still considered targets until the full ceasefire is implemented. [More - Bloomberg]\nComment - Free movement through the Red Sea would shave 10-14 days off transit times from Asia to Europe and should drop cargo costs significantly in the near term, although it is noteworthy that the Houthis could restart attacks at any point there is a breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire. Business might want to holds off rerouting all materials until the longevity of the ceasefire is clear. It is also recommended that higher-than-normal supply levels are maintained close to the point of use.\nFreight prices over the last 24 months via Freightos\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nAsia News Summary Singapore has continued to solidify its position as a global trade hub, with Swiss construction materials group Sika announcing new plants in both Singapore and China, highlighting the c\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/23/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-4873/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"turkey--pkk-ceasefire-rumors-and-houthis-suspend-read-sea-attacks\"\u003eTurkey / PKK Ceasefire Rumors and Houthis Suspend Read Sea Attacks\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. A brief reprieve from the Trump whirlwind…\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇹🇷 The Middle East Institute’s Gönül Tol is reporting that **a deal between the Turkish government and the PKK is planned **that would see the Kurdish group cease military operations on February 15th. In return, there would be an amnesty in Turkey and a redrafting of the constitution to provide greater recognition of the Kurds. The full post follows.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Tariff uncertainty, West Bank raids and Troop surge in Columbia. Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🧾 Tariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high.\n🇨🇳 Trump alluded to an additional 10% on Chinese imports without specifying a date and it’s likely that he’ll want the threat of tariffs on the table for any upcoming discussions with China where everything from TikTok ownership to Taiwan are up for discussion. [More - Bloomberg]\n🇵🇸 Raids by Israeli security forces and settlers have increased in the West Bank since Sunday’s ceasefire in Gaza. Reports this morning are that 2,000 families have been expelled from the Jenin refugee camp while raids and attacks continue. [More - AlJazeera]\nNote - For clarity, there are three drivers of violence in the West Bank currently: attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinian homes and farms which are in less-built up areas; raids by Israeli security forces in the larger towns and camps; and operations by the Palestinian Authority security forces against Palestinian militant groups.\n🇨🇴 The Colombian government has deployed thousands of troops into the northwest region bordering Venezuela to deal with an upsurge in fighting between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which has killed over 100 and displaced tens of thousands more. [More - AlJazeera]\nThere was a glitch with the metrics this morning so it’s straight on to the stability ratings and news.\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economy continues to show resilience, with a recent report indicating growth driven by investments in technology and innovation. The adoption of a new Bankruptcies bill aims to provide debtors with rehabilitation opportunities, reflecting a commitment to economic recovery amids\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/22/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-d64a/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"tariff-uncertainty-west-bank-raids-and-troop-surge-in-columbia\"\u003eTariff uncertainty, West Bank raids and Troop surge in Columbia.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🧾 \u003cstrong\u003eTariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect\u003c/strong\u003e after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":" Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Trump\u0026rsquo;s Day One EO Blizzard and Palestinians Return to Ruins in Gaza Andrew Sheves\nGood morning. Before we cover Monday’s frenetic Day One for the incoming Trump administration, some stark images and statistics illustrate the immense challenge that still lies ahead for the Palestinians.\n🇵🇸 There are estimates that 92% of housing in Gaza has been destroyed. So, while the current ceasefire allows families to move back into cleared areas, very few have homes to go to. [More - BBC]\nImage Mahmoud Isleem/Anadolu via AlJazeera\nMoreover, the infrastructure is similarly damaged with water, sewage treatment, power and medical facilities capable of supporting only a fraction of the enclave’s population.\n](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/20/rescuers-find-dozens-of-bodies-in-gaza-rubble-amid-israel-hamas-ceasefire) Via ALJazeera\nEven if the ceasefire becomes permanent, a decades-long rebuilding effort lies ahead.\n🇺🇸 Monday was a flurry of activity for the incoming Trump administration, starting with the President’s inaugural speech. Trump painted a dark picture of America in decline and attacked the previous administration while repeating many campaign promises with respect to trade and the border. He also addressed several less prominent themes: reinstating previously discharged service members who had refused the COVID vaccine, announcing that the US government would only recognize two genders, and ordering Denali be renamed Mt McKinley.\n✍️ The real work started Monday evening when Trump began signing executive orders on stage at the indoor celebration and later in the Oval Office. As per the White House website , 41 executive orders were issued.\nGuaranteeing The States Protection Against Invasion\nRestoring Names That Honor American Greatness\nDesignating Cartels And Other Organizations As Foreign Terrorist Organizations And Specially Designated Global Terrorists\nReforming The Federal Hiring Process And Restoring Merit To Government Service\nEnding Radical And Wasteful Government DEI Programs And Preferencing\nDefending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism And Restoring Biological Truth To The Federal Government\nEstablishing And Implementing The President’s “Department Of Government Efficiency”\nAmerica First Policy Directive To The Secretary Of State\nProtecting The United States From Foreign Terrorists And Other National Security And Public Safety Threats\nUnleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential\nProtecting The American People Against Invasion\nThe Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global Tax Deal (Global Tax Deal)\nOrganization of the National Securi\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/21/tusday-sitrep-americas-focus-82a9/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTusday SITREP: Americas Focus\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"tusday-sitrep-americas-focus\"\u003eTusday SITREP: Americas Focus\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"trumps-day-one-eo-blizzard-and-palestinians-return-to-ruins-in-gaza\"\u003eTrump\u0026rsquo;s Day One EO Blizzard and Palestinians Return to Ruins in Gaza\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning. Before we cover Monday’s frenetic Day One for the incoming Trump administration, some stark images and statistics illustrate the immense challenge that still lies ahead for the Palestinians.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇵🇸 There are estimates that 92% of housing in Gaza has been destroyed. So, while the current ceasefire allows families to move back into cleared areas, very few have homes to go to. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8x00mgjxmo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"The rules for Trump 2.0 Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.\nAllow me an observation on the cusp of the second Trump Presidency\nIt’s Inauguration Day and DC is full of two kinds of Trump supporters. Billionaires spent the weekend celebrating at black-tie events, anticipating a freer, free market, looser regulation, and a more mercantile approach to everything from lawmaking to foreign policy. Meanwhile, Trump voters who couldn’t stump up millions of dollars in support are tramping around a wet, snowy DC, unable to attend the (now indoors) inauguration.\nJust to emphasize the gulf between the two kinds of supporters, the Trump family, their advisors and prominent supporters spent the weekend pumping — and in many cases apparently dumping — the $Trump and $Melania memecoins*. No prizes for guessing which group will be left holding the bag when the coins are worth nothing. As Marie Antoinette put it, “Qu\u0026rsquo;ils mangent de la crypto.” (*And exactly the kind of thing the crypto community doesn’t want to see happen. Wah wuh.)\nBut here’s the thing: this illustrates four rules for working with Washington for the next four years.\nYou pay for access (which you only retain while you keep paying).\nAny deal has to disproportionately favor America and must be a clear win for President Trump\nThere are no partnerships: only transactions.\nEveryone else is saddled with the losses.\nThis approach is similar to the first Trump presidency and you can point to his success on things like NATO spending. But while NATO was strengthened as allies started spending more, the alliance was also weakened because of the ‘will he won’t he’ dance around Trump’s support for Article Five.\nBut, like them or not, these are the rules for Trump 2.0.\nThings kick off just after lunch when President Trump will reenter the Oval Office and start signing executive orders’. [More - BBC]\nBack to your normal programming: here are the numbers.\nKey Metrics WTI is $79.57 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 19 2025 21:16 UTC\nGlobal Stability Ratings Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/20/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-f91d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"the-rules-for-trump-20\"\u003eThe rules for Trump 2.0\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning, and Happy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAllow me an observation on the cusp of the second Trump Presidency\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s Inauguration Day and DC is full of two kinds of Trump supporters. Billionaires spent the weekend celebrating at black-tie events, anticipating a freer, free market, looser regulation, and a more mercantile approach to everything from lawmaking to foreign policy. Meanwhile, Trump voters who couldn’t stump up millions of dollars in support are tramping around a wet, snowy DC, unable to attend the (now indoors) inauguration.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"Israel split by peace deal Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.\nDespite last-minute jitters, Israel and Hamas agreed to final ceasefire terms on Thursday but now the focus shifts to the Israeli cabinet which is currently meeting to vote on the deal [More - Washington Post]. The cabinet’s far-right members are vehemently opposed to the deal, threatening to bring down the government if it is approved.[More - Reuters] Many of their supporters spent Thursday night protesting the agreement, calling it a ‘Hamas victory’.\nIsrael’s domestic tensions have been put largely aside since October 7th but these will come to the fore as soon as the deal is inked. Israel’s external threats are significantly diminished and the country remains dominant militarily but domestically, the country is weak and about to begin a very difficult period.\nKey Metrics WTI is $79.57 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 16 2025 21:16 UTC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary In Eastern Congo, the United Nations reports that over 100,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the year due to escalating violence and instability fueled by various militias and rebel groups. This humanitarian crisis highlights the persistent conflict that plagues the region, exacerbating the plight of vulnerable populations [SOURCE - Winnipeg Free Press].\nMeanwhile, Sierra Leone has declared a public health emergency in response to the spread of mpox, a viral disease that has also been detected in other parts of Africa. This outbreak serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing public health challenges facing the continent, particularly in regions like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where health systems are already under strain [[SOURCE - Malay Mail]](https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2025/01/14/sierra-leone-declares-public-health-emergency-over-mpox/163114?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;utm_campaig\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/17/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-89e6/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israel-split-by-peace-deal\"\u003eIsrael split by peace deal\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite last-minute jitters, Israel and Hamas agreed to final ceasefire terms on Thursday but now the focus shifts to the Israeli cabinet which is currently meeting to vote on the deal [\u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/17/israel-war-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-news-hamas/\"\u003eMore - Washington Post\u003c/a\u003e]. The cabinet’s far-right members are vehemently opposed to the deal, threatening to bring down the government if it is approved.[\u003ca href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-minister-ben-gvir-threatens-quit-netanyahu-cabinet-over-gaza-deal-2025-01-14/\"\u003eMore - Reuters\u003c/a\u003e] Many of their supporters spent Thursday night protesting the agreement, calling it a ‘Hamas victory’.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Gaza peace deal Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🕊️ Israel and Hamas have finally agreed to ceasefire terms to end the 15-month-long conflict. The deal, due to start Sunday, reportedly takes place in three stages.\n**Stage One - **Six weeks.\nFull ceasefire.\nHostage exchange: 33 hostages (women, children, elderly, and the sick but no men) held by Hamas will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.\nIsraeli troops to withdraw from all populated areas in Gaza.\nDisplaced Gazans will be allowed to return home.\nSurge in humanitarian aid deliveries.\nNegotiations for further stages begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.\nStage Two - No timeframe\nThe second stage is a permanent end to the war and the release of remaining hostages (including men) in exchange for another 1,000 Palestinian prisoners (excluding those convicted of murder in the West Bank). Israeli troops would withdraw fully from Gaza.\n**Stage Three **- No Timeframe\nThe third stage is the reconstruction of Gaza and the return of the bodies of any remaining hostages.\nFull details of the plan should be released soon. The ceasefire is due to begin on Sunday but fighting will likely continue until the last minute. [More - BBC]\nKey Metrics WTI is $74.31 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 15 2025 21:16 UTC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇨🇳 China, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, the stock market is facing uncertainty, with experts warning that its recent win streak may come to an end due to global economic concerns and shifting investor sentiment [SOURCE - RTT News]. Meanwhile, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim have signed an agreement to establish the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, which is expected to yield significant economic benefits and job creation for both nations [SOURCE - Free Press Journal].\nDespite these advancements, Singapore is grappling with a surge in malware scams, resulting in losses of S$625,000 since December 2024, prompting calls for stronger intervention in the region\u0026rsquo;s online scam industry [[SOURCE - Malay Mail]](https://www.malaymail.com/news/singapore/2025/01/11/malware-scams-cost-singaporeans-s625000-since\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/16/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-14be/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"gaza-peace-deal\"\u003eGaza peace deal\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🕊️ Israel and Hamas have finally agreed to ceasefire terms to end the 15-month-long conflict. The deal, due to start Sunday, reportedly takes place in three stages.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e**Stage One - **Six weeks.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFull ceasefire.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHostage exchange: 33 hostages (women, children, elderly, and the sick but no men) held by Hamas will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsraeli troops to withdraw from all populated areas in Gaza.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Yoon arrested in Seoul, mining siege in South Africa and EU considers additional Russian sanctions Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇰🇷 Police in South Korea finally arrested ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol in relation to his impeachment in early January following his imposition of martial law in December. Yoon has been avoiding police and refusing to cooperate with the authorities since his removal from power in December.[More - BBC]\n🇿🇦 South African police rescued 82 trapped miners and recovered the bodies of 36 more from an illegal mine in Stilfontein, south of Johannesburg. Hundreds more miners remain trapped underground. Mining organizations accuse the police of sealing the miners underground, while the police argue that the miners refuse to leave the mine for fear of arrest. [More - Al Jazeera]\n🇪🇺 The EU is considering additional sanctions against Russia, banning imports of aluminum and LNG. LNG delivered by pipeline would likely remain exempt as Poland and Hungary remain reliant on Russia for piped gas. [More - Bloomberg]\nKey Metrics WTI is $74.31 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 14 2025 21:15 UTC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEurope News Summary Switzerland is stepping into the international spotlight, offering to mediate a meeting between former US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a move that could significantly influence global diplomatic relations [SOURCE - AzerNews]. Swiss President Alain Berset has also expressed the country\u0026rsquo;s readiness to facilitate discussions aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [SOURCE - TASS].\nHowever, Switzerland faces domesti\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/15/wednesday-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"yoon-arrested-in-seoul-mining-siege-in-south-africa-and-eu-considers-additional-russian-sanctions\"\u003eYoon arrested in Seoul, mining siege in South Africa and EU considers additional Russian sanctions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇰🇷 \u003cstrong\u003ePolice in South Korea finally arrested ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol\u003c/strong\u003e in relation to his impeachment in early January following his imposition of martial law in December. Yoon has been avoiding police and refusing to cooperate with the authorities since his removal from power in December.[\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg45zqz225vo\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇿🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eSouth African police rescued 82 trapped miners and recovered the bodies of 36 more from an illegal mine\u003c/strong\u003e in Stilfontein, south of Johannesburg. Hundreds more miners remain trapped underground. Mining organizations accuse the police of sealing the miners underground, while the police argue that the miners refuse to leave the mine for fear of arrest. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/14/rescuers-recover-dozens-more-bodies-and-survivors-from-south-africa-gold-mine\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":" Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Peace deal nears in Gaza, Lebanon\u0026rsquo;s new PM and Trump cabinet picks begin confirmation hearings. Andrew Sheves\nGood morning. xx\n🕊️ Statements from officials in Doha and Washington indicate that a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is close to agreement. Several influential Israeli politicians on the right vehemently oppose a ceasefire and a similar deal has been under discussion since May last year so a breakthrough is not guaranteed. [More - BBC]\n🇱🇧 Lebanon’s President Aoun invited Nawaf Salam, the head of the International Court of Justice, to be Prime Minister. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had been seen as Hezbollah’s preferred candidate, and Salam’s selection is an indication that the group’s political power has diminished along with its military capability.\n🇺🇸 Hearings for Donald Trump’s picks for senior positions begin today with many expected to be contentions sessions, particularly Pete Hesgeth for Defense. [More - BBC]\nThe Senate hearing schedule is here 📈 Advisors to incoming Preside Trump are reportedly alarmed at the possibility of massive spikes in inflation and rising consumer costs if Trump’s range of tariffs is enacted. Some advisors are reportedly advocating a gradual increase of between 2% and 5% monthly to gradually increase pressure without causing market shocks within the US. [More - Bloomberg]\nKey Metrics WTI is $74.31 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.02 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 13 2025 21:16 UTC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s economy is showing resilience in 2024, with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad projecting a growth\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/14/tusday-sitrep-americas-focus/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTusday SITREP: Americas Focus\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"tusday-sitrep-americas-focus\"\u003eTusday SITREP: Americas Focus\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"peace-deal-nears-in-gaza-lebanons-new-pm-and-trump-cabinet-picks-begin-confirmation-hearings\"\u003ePeace deal nears in Gaza, Lebanon\u0026rsquo;s new PM and Trump cabinet picks begin confirmation hearings.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning. xx\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🕊️ Statements from officials in Doha and Washington indicate that a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is close to agreement. Several influential Israeli politicians on the right vehemently oppose a ceasefire and a similar deal has been under discussion since May last year so a breakthrough is not guaranteed. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c93gddkk3vpt\"\u003eMore - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Syria reconstruction conference, Lebanon\u0026rsquo;s new President gets to work, Gaza peace talks, and North Korean troops captured in Ukraine. Plus flooding in Mayotte and fires continue in Los Angeles. Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Some weekend headlines to prepare you for the week ahead.\n🇸🇾 Saudi Arabia hosted regional and European diplomats at a conference to discuss the rebuilding of Syria and the country’s rehabilitation into the global community. Saudi diplomats stressed that easing sanctions and delisting members of the new regime from terrorist suspect lists are key steps to allowing Syria to recover after the 50-year reign of the Assad regime. [More - Politico]\n🌀 A month after being devastated by Cyclone Chido, the French island of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean was hit with heavy rains causing landslides and flooding. [More - BBC]\n🇺🇦 Two North Korean soldiers were captured by Ukrainian troops on Friday and are being questioned in the hope that they will be able to shed light on the Russian’s use of North Korean troops. [More - Washington Post]\n🇮🇱 🇵🇸 US President Biden and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on Sunday as ceasefire negotiations to end the war in Gaza continued in Doha. The official line is that a deal is close, but social media reports from the region indicate that Israel will not agree to a timetable for a final cessation of hostilities which is a key demand of Hamas. [More - Axios]\n🔥 Firefighters around Los Angeles continue to battle the Palisades and Eaton fires. In an interview with CBS News, Governor Gavin Newsom said that he believed that this would be the most costly natural disaster in US history.\nImage - CalFire (fire.ca.gov)\n🇱🇧 Lebanon’s new President, former General Joseph Aoun, has begun consultations to choose a Prime Minister following his election last week to fill the post that has been vacant for two years. [More - Al Jazeera\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/13/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"syria-reconstruction-conference-lebanons-new-president-gets-to-work-gaza-peace-talks-and-north-korean-troops-captured-in-ukraine-plus-flooding-in-mayotte-and-fires-continue-in-los-angeles\"\u003eSyria reconstruction conference, Lebanon\u0026rsquo;s new President gets to work, Gaza peace talks, and North Korean troops captured in Ukraine. Plus flooding in Mayotte and fires continue in Los Angeles.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning, and Happy Monday. Some weekend headlines to prepare you for the week ahead.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇸🇾 Saudi Arabia hosted regional and European diplomats at a conference to discuss the rebuilding of Syria and the country’s rehabilitation into the global community. Saudi diplomats stressed that easing sanctions and delisting members of the new regime from terrorist suspect lists are key steps to allowing Syria to recover after the 50-year reign of the Assad regime. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/12/saudi-arabia-eu-diplomats-sanctions-syria-00197724\"\u003eMore - Politico\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"This is a ‘living’ article which will be updated as progress is made in tests and other research emerges. The original articile was written on Jaunuary 13 2025 and major edits will be dated.\nThere are also demos of this process in action, the latest being the presentation to the Virtual AI Engineer Summit in NY in March 2025.\nUpdates to add\nUtilize domain-specific heuristics (rules of thumb) for few-shot training\nInclude validation loops to review and assess results against heuristics, goals and constraints\nRun scenarios on top of a worldsim to allow the model to draw general, real world knowledge into the deliberations\nChallenges:\nDomains that are highly System II dependent lack robust heuristics and rules of thumb\nStrict rules could constrain creativity\nExecutive Summary Large Language Models (LLMs) continue to improve but data deficits in specialized domains and the fundamental differences between predictive completion and expert reasoning mean that we are still a long way from creating specialist analytical agents for high-value, specialized tasks (eg negotiations, crisis management or intelligence analysis). Current LLM development remains founded on enhancing pattern recognition systems through better training which will not overcome this shortfall, nor will the introduction of chain of thought processes. However, we have a human model for overcoming domain inexperience from management consultancy and other roles that require high-level problem-solving. Non subject-matter-experts (SME) can be provided with domain-specific heuristics or rules of thumb as guidance. These heuristics supplement their otherwise capable reasoning skills, allowing them to perform in unfamiliar conditions. We can take a similar approach with capable LLMs, providing them with SME-generated, domain-specific heuristics they can apply as necessary. Unlike few-shot training, the base model is not being trained on these rules: instead it recursively applies these guidelines as it iterates through the problem. It is noteworthy that this approach is not without difficulty as there are many domains that lack a clean set of higher-order guiding principles so developing the heuristics will be time-consuming and complex in its own right.\nUtilizing the world simulation capabilities of some models further enhances performance as it allows the model to build its reasoning on a realistic view of the world, ensuring that suggestions are realistic and take into account relevant factors not specified in the problem. Initial test results using corporate negotiations have been promising and proved the concept was valid.\nThis Domain Speciality Paradox \u0026ndash; where the most complex, high-value tasks are least supported by artificial intelligence (AI) \u0026ndash; is likely to persist until new approaches to model architecture, training and application are discovered. However, while this gap persists, the application of domain-specific heuristics offers a straightforward solution to this problem, allowing us to apply these LLMs to high-value tasks with encouraging results.\nThe Domain Speciality Paradox As a domain becomes more specialized, narrow and high-value, there appears to be an inverse relationship with the availability of suitable training data, creating a fundamental barrier to deploying general-purpose LLMs in these contexts. This paradox manifests in three critical ways:\nData Scarcity: Specialized domains inherently generate less documentable data\nData Privacy: High-value domains often have strict confidentiality requirements\nData Quality: The available data may not capture crucial decision-making processes\nThese shortfalls are characteristics of high-level analytical tasks such as complex business negotiations, crisis management, or intelligence forecasting: activities we’ll define here as narrow specialties. This is distinct from broad specialties like trading, medicine or coding, where there is an abundance of publicly available, well-structured data.\nTherefore, this creates a fundamental challenge: the most valuable applications of AI in terms of expert analysis might be the least suited to current frontier LLM approaches.\nDifferentiation of Tasks Underst\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/13/the-domain-speciality-paradox/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThis is a ‘living’ article which will be updated as progress is made in tests and other research emerges. The original articile was written on Jaunuary 13 2025 and major edits will be dated.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are also demos of this process in action, the latest being the \u003ca href=\"https://youtu.be/ya_9_niq2as?si=00xkMq2_BdYNpAMO\u0026amp;utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;utm_campaign=the-domain-speciality-paradox-and-implications-for-ai-assisted-analysis\"\u003epresentation to the Virtual AI Engineer Summit in NY in March 2025\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUpdates to add\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUtilize domain-specific heuristics (rules of thumb) for few-shot training\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Domain Speciality Paradox and Implications for AI-Assisted Analysis"},{"content":"Machado appears in Caracas and Musk seeks to oust Starmer. Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick headlines today.\n🇻🇪 Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared at a rally in Caracas on Thursday and was briefly detained by police. Machado has been in hiding since July’s rigged election and appeared a day before President Maduro’s inauguration, planned for today (Friday). Machado and her exiled running mate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia remain highly popular in Venezuela and her quick release indicates that she is still a great threat to Maduro’s government which the US and other countries fail to recognize. [More - Washington Post]\n🇬🇧 Elon Musk is reportedly strategizing on ways to oust British Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer. Unlike his support of Donald Trump as a US citizen, any intervention by Musk in elections in the UK and Europe would class as foreign interference. [More - Reuters]\nWe had a great AI quick wins session yesterday as a prelude to the practical AI implementation workshops starting on January 21.\nOver five weeks, we’ll be going deep into how to use AI to cut back on busy work and free up more time for high-level thinking. Teams I’ve worked with have already ‘bought back’ literally hundreds of hours a year. using AI .Plus, we’ll work through the necessary strategic planning for how to best implement AI into your team and workflows to produce an actionable roadmap to bring this to life.\nAs a reminder, newsletter readers can use the link below to attend for 50% off (just $250), but that offer expires tonight. If you’re keen to implement AI for you and your team in 2025, this five-week series of workshops is a great place to start.\nAI for Risk and Crisis Managers by Andrew Sheves MSc, SIRM, M.ISRM on Maven\nImplement AI thoughtfully and safely to gain the clarity and efficiency you need to guide your organization in an increasingly complex world\nmaven.com/andrew-sheves/ai-for-risk-and-crisis-managers?promoCode=cohort-1-EB\n! If you\u0026rsquo;re looking to take advantage of AI to improve your risk, crisis, and security operations, this is the place to start.\n(Remember, these cohorts are deliberately small to maximize the practical nature of the sessions, so there are only ten seats in each group.)\nOn to the numbers\nKey Metrics WTI is $74.31 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 09 2025 21:16 UTC\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria,\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/10/friday-sitrep-africa-focus/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"machado-appears-in-caracas-and-musk-seeks-to-oust-starmer\"\u003eMachado appears in Caracas and Musk seeks to oust Starmer.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday. Two quick headlines today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇻🇪 \u003cstrong\u003eVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared at a rally in Caracas\u003c/strong\u003e on Thursday and was briefly detained by police. Machado has been in hiding since July’s rigged election and appeared a day before President Maduro’s inauguration, planned for today (Friday). Machado and her exiled running mate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia remain highly popular in Venezuela and her quick release indicates that she is still a great threat to Maduro’s government which the US and other countries fail to recognize. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/09/venezuela-opposition-machado-arrested/\"\u003eMore - Washington Post\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Attack in N’Djamena, US Sanctions RSF and fire spreads in Los Angeles. Plus AI workshop today Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n🇹🇩 Armed fighters, suspected to be members of Boko Haram, stormed Chad’s Presidential palace shortly after a visit by the Chinese Foreign Minister. Government forces thwarted the attack, leaving 18 of the 24 attackers dead, along with one member of the security forces. [More - Al Jazeera]\n🇸🇩 On Monday, the US sanctioned the leaders of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, accusing the group of conducting a genocide. Both the RSF and Sudanese militaries have caused indiscriminate harm to civilians during the conflict but until now, the US has refrained from leveling sanctions on the RSF due to the group’s close support to the UAE. [More - Washington Post]\n🔥 The Palisades fire and several other uncontrolled wildfires continue to sweep through Los Angeles, with over 130,000 now under evacuation orders and thousands of homes destroyed. LAX remains open, but the fire is now within 8 miles of the airport and spreading, so travelers should expect delays if the fire remains uncontained. The Port of Long Beach is unaffected. [More - BBC Live Coverage]\nUnfortunately, this didn\u0026rsquo;t make yesterday’s SITREP, but I’m running a short practical workshop on AI for Security Risk Managers today at 12:30 ET.\nThe session is going to be very hands-on and we’ll be covering three essential topics:\n🏆 Three Quick Wins - How to speed up three common Security Risk Management tasks with AI.\n✍️ Effective prompting - Stop guessing or using generic \u0026lsquo;helpful assistant\u0026rsquo; prompts. Here\u0026rsquo;s how to write consistent, high-performance prompts.\n⛑️ Safe Use of Public Tools - Finally, we\u0026rsquo;ll quickly cover what\u0026rsquo;s safe and not safe with online AIs and how to anonymize your queries.\nAI Quick Wins for Security Risk Managers\nArtificial intelligence is changing business and can be hugely beneficial for Security Risk Managers but it can be hard to know where to start. Plus, safety and confidentiality are always big concerns. So we\u0026rsquo;re sharing our cheat sheet to get you started. This practical session lets you get hands-on with common AI systems quickly, easily and safely so you can put these tools to work right away.\nmaven.com/p/b5068e/ai-quick-wins-for-security-risk-managers?utm_medium=ll_share_link\u0026amp;utm_source=email\n! If ‘start using AI’ was one of your New Year’s resolutions, this 30-minute free session will set you on the right path.\nI hope to see you there.\nOn to the numbers.\nKey Metrics WTI is $72.44 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\n*Metr\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/09/thursday-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"attack-in-ndjamena-us-sanctions-rsf-and-fire-spreads-in-los-angeles-plus-ai-workshop-today\"\u003eAttack in N’Djamena, US Sanctions RSF and fire spreads in Los Angeles. Plus AI workshop today\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇹🇩 Armed fighters, suspected to be members of Boko Haram, stormed Chad’s Presidential palace shortly after a visit by the Chinese Foreign Minister. Government forces thwarted the attack, leaving 18 of the 24 attackers dead, along with one member of the security forces. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/9/chad-say-military-foiled-armed-assault-on-presidential-complex-19-killed\"\u003eMore - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇸🇩 On Monday, the US sanctioned the leaders of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, accusing the group of conducting a genocide. Both the RSF and Sudanese militaries have caused indiscriminate harm to civilians during the conflict but until now, the US has refrained from leveling sanctions on the RSF due to the group’s close support to the UAE. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/07/sudan-genocide-rsf-hemedti/\"\u003eMore - Washington Post\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Trump\u0026rsquo;s Geopolitical Threats and Wildfire in California Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines from the US today.\n🇺🇸 **President-elect Trump held a very wide-ranging press conference Tuesday full of geopolitical threats and declarations **including:\nRefusing to rule out using force to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland\nContinuing to suggest that Canada should join the US\nPromising to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America\nHow much of this is posturing and how much is sincere remains unclear but it is a reminder of how much geopolitical uncertainty and turbulence will emanate from the incoming administration. [More - Axios]\nNote - Despite the uncertainty over exactly what Trump will do with respect to foreign relations and trade, it’s clear that there will be a lot of turbulence over the next few months. Organziations should be considering what each of the major policy changes means for them and perparing accordingly.\nAs a reminder, there’s a sumary of all Trump’s day-one pledges here.\n🔥 Dry conditions and strong winds have caused a wildfire west of Los Angeles to spread rapidly, with tens of thousands of residents forced to evacuate. [CalFire official site] [More - BBC]\nKey Metrics WTI is $72.44 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 07 2025 21:16 UTC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEurope News Summary A notable advancement is the expansion of the EU\u0026rsquo;s Schengen zone, with Romania and Bulgaria officially joining, thereby eliminating border checks and enhancing economic and cultural integration across member states. This move is expected to bolster trade and tourism, benefiting countries like Switzerland, which has long been part of the Schengen area [[SOURCE - Japan Times]](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/01/02/world/politics/romania-bulgaria-eu-schengen/\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/08/decis-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-3627/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trumps-geopolitical-threats-and-wildfire-in-california\"\u003eTrump\u0026rsquo;s Geopolitical Threats and Wildfire in California\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. Two headlines from the US today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇸 **President-elect Trump held a very wide-ranging press conference Tuesday full of geopolitical threats and declarations **including:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRefusing to rule out using force to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eContinuing to suggest that Canada should join the US\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePromising to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHow much of this is posturing and how much is sincere remains unclear but it is a reminder of how much geopolitical uncertainty and turbulence will emanate from the incoming administration. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.axios.com/2025/01/07/trump-press-conference-gulf-of-mexico-panama\"\u003eMore - Axios\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Trudeau out, M23 increase hold in Goma and earthquake in Tibet. Andrew Sheves\nGood morning. Three quick headlines\n🇨🇦 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down, proroguing (recessing) Canada’s parliament until March 24th while the Liberal party find a new leader. Canada’s conservatives will want to force a general election, and this leaves Trudeau — who will stay on until a replacement is found — as a lame duck in any negotiations with the incoming Trump administration. [More - CBC]\n🇨🇩 M23 rebels have taken control of Masisi, a strategic town in the Eastern Goma district of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Goma region is rich in minerals and also increases M23’s terrotorial hold in eastern DRC. [More - Al Jazeera]\n🗻 An earthquake hit a remote area of Tibet close to Mount Everest. Initial reports are that almost 100 were killed and 130 injured. [More - BBC]\nDon’t forget - you have a 50% off coupon for the upcoming AI workshops.\nAI for Risk and Crisis Managers by Andrew Sheves on Maven\nImplement AI thoughtfully and safely to gain the clarity and efficiency you need to guide your organization in an increasingly complex world\nmaven.com/andrew-sheves/ai-for-risk-and-crisis-managers?promoCode=cohort-1-EB\n! If you’re planning to implement AI in your organization this year, this is a great place to start.\nKey Metrics WTI is $72.44 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow |\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 06 2025 21:16 UTC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s economic landscape is currently marked by significant developments and challenges. The government has secured a $1.8 billion railway concessions deal with Vale, a major mining company, which is expected to enhance infrastructure development in the country [[SOURCE - Seeking Alpha]](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4391619-vale-discloses-18b-railway-concessions-deal-with-brazil-governmen\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/07/decis-sitrep-americas-focus-f791/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"trudeau-out-m23-increase-hold-in-goma-and-earthquake-in-tibet\"\u003eTrudeau out, M23 increase hold in Goma and earthquake in Tibet.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning. Three quick headlines\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇨🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eCanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down\u003c/strong\u003e, proroguing (recessing) Canada’s parliament until March 24th while the Liberal party find a new leader. Canada’s conservatives will want to force a general election, and this leaves Trudeau — who will stay on until a replacement is found — as a lame duck in any negotiations with the incoming Trump administration. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-news-conference-1.7423680\"\u003eMore - CBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Ukraine reinforces position in Kursk, US offshore drilling ban, Trudeau to resign and Musk doubles-down on Europe\u0026rsquo;s hard right. Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the first full week of 2025. Let’s get after it.\n🇺🇦 Ukraine began a new offensive into the Russian territory it holds in the Kursk region. Ukraine has held this since August, and reinforcing its hold on Russian ground will strengthen Kyiv’s hand in any upcoming peace talks. [More - Al Jazera]\n🛢️ President Biden signed a last-minute order to prevent further oil and gas exploration in huge areas of the US coastline. [More - BBC]\n🇨🇦 Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau is reportedly planning to step down before a party meeting this Wednesday. His Liberal Party will select his successor, but Canada’s parliament may force a vote of no confidence in the spring. This could trigger elections in mid-2025, which the opposition Conservative Party expects to do well. [More - Bloomberg]\n🇬🇧 Elon Musk has waded into British politics, falsely accusing Prime Minister Kier Starmer of covering up a years-old child abuse scandal (something Starmer took major steps to crack down on when was the UK’s director of public prosecutions (DPP)), attacking his former favorite Nigel Farage who leads the Reform party, and calling for the release of Tommy Robinson, a far-right agitator in jail for contempt of court. Musk’s false accusations are being amplified by the British Conservatives as well as his millions of social-media followers and will complicate relations between the UK and US. [More - BBC]\n(Note - terms like ‘far-right’ are used broadly but Robinson’s positions are sufficiently extreme that even mainstream Conservatives and Reform party members in the UK disavow him. Musk’s support of him mirrors his promotion of the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) in Germany, another extreme far-right party.)\n🤖 AI Implementation Workshops I mentioned these on Friday and am excited to be able to offer a series of highly practical AI implementation workshops starting in a couple of weeks. These all build upon the lessons I’ve learned over the past few years as I’ve integrated AI into all of my workflows, particularly the intelligence feeds you see from Decis, country risk assessment, report writing, and crisis planning.\nThe course will lead you through a tried and tested approach to understanding AI, determining how it can benefit your organization until finally building an actionable roadmap specific to your organization.\nOver five weeks, we\u0026rsquo;ll cover:\nWhat AIs are (and aren\u0026rsquo;t) and the differences between the leading models\nWhy prompting matters and how\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/06/decis-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-8296/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ukraine-reinforces-position-in-kursk-us-offshore-drilling-ban-trudeau-to-resign-and-musk-doubles-down-on-europes-hard-right\"\u003eUkraine reinforces position in Kursk, US offshore drilling ban, Trudeau to resign and Musk doubles-down on Europe\u0026rsquo;s hard right.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning, and welcome to the first full week of 2025. Let’s get after it.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇺🇦 \u003cstrong\u003eUkraine began a new offensive into the Russian territory it holds in the Kursk region\u003c/strong\u003e. Ukraine has held this since August, and reinforcing its hold on Russian ground will strengthen Kyiv’s hand in any upcoming peace talks. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/5/ukraine-launches-new-offensive-in-russias-kursk-as-war-casualties-mount\"\u003eMore - Al Jazera\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"US House Speak elections, no apparent links in US terror attacks and dockworker strike talks. Plus, Syria\u0026rsquo;s interim government starts diplomatic outreach. Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some headlines to set you up for the weekend.\n🚢 US dockworkers held off from striking over Christmas but that deal expires on January 15th. Talks begin next week to avoid a dockworker strike and automation will be a major theme issue to resolve. [More - Bloomberg]\n💥 Both New Year terror attacks in the US — killing 15 in New Orleans and the attacker in Las Vegas — were conducted by American servicemen but appear unconnected, according to the FBI. [More - Bloomberg]\n🇸🇾 Asaad al-Shaibani, Syria’s interim Foreign Minister, traveled to Saudi Arabia on the HTS-led government’s first foreign visit following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. [More - Al Jazeera]\n🏛️ The US Congress returns today (Friday), and its first job is to elect the Speaker. Incumbent Mike Johnson is President-elect Trump’s preferred candidate but Johnson faces opposition and it not guaranteed victory. Moreover, the tone and conduct of the vote will be an indication of how the 119th Congress will operate. [More - Washington Post]\nComing Soon - AI Implementation Workshops A byproduct of building AI tools is that you get a lot of questions on how to implement AI generally. Doug Grey and I tackled the security risk management applications in our AI implementation white paper last year, but that was a higher-level view of what AI could do. The feedback: “Good, but what about my organization specifically? You should be running workshops.”\n**So, after a successful pilot in December, I’m starting a series of AI implementation workshops in mid-January. **\nThese will look at implementing AI into your organization’s risk and crisis function and will be largely practical with the aim of providing the skills needed to use AI along with an actionable plan to help you implement these tools into your workflows.\nI’ll share more next week, and as a SITREP reader you will have the chance to attend the first cohort at a significantly reduced rate. If you plan to lean into AI in 2025 but aren’t sure where to start, these workshops will set you up fort success.\nKey Metrics WTI is $70.38 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.03 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 02 2025 21:16 UTC\nAfrica Carpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/03/decis-sitrep-africa-focus-9a93/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"us-house-speak-elections-no-apparent-links-in-us-terror-attacks-and-dockworker-strike-talks-plus-syrias-interim-government-starts-diplomatic-outreach\"\u003eUS House Speak elections, no apparent links in US terror attacks and dockworker strike talks. Plus, Syria\u0026rsquo;s interim government starts diplomatic outreach.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday. Some headlines to set you up for the weekend.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🚢 US dockworkers held off from striking over Christmas but that deal expires on January 15th. \u003cstrong\u003eTalks begin next week to avoid a dockworker strike\u003c/strong\u003e and automation will be a major theme issue to resolve. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-02/us-dockworkers-port-employers-set-to-restart-talks-next-week\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"New Year attacks in the US and Russian gas stops flowing to Europe Andrew Sheves Good morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking.\nThere were two apparent terrorist attacks in the US. In New Orleans, a driver deliberately drove into a crowd celebrating New Year, killing 15. While in Las Vegas the driver of a vehicle detonated his Cybertruck outside the Trump Tower killing himself but no others. [More - Bloomberg]\nNote the attack in New Orleans was very similar to the Christmas market attack in Germany on December 20 [More - Al Jazeera] and there are growing concerns over future domestic terror attacks in the US [More - BBC]\nRussia stopped transporting gas to Europe via Ukraine as the current transport arrangement lapsed. This was long-anticipated, so there will be little effect on Europe, which has sought alternate supplies of gas, but Moldova, which is outside the EU, is now facing enormous gas shortages. [More - BBC]\nKey Metrics WTI is $70.38 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 02 2025 08:05 UTC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced that the Budget 2025 will be tabled on February 18, marking the start of the budget preparation process for the nation. This comes on the heels of a robust economic performance, with Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy growing by 4% in 2024, surpassing expectations and showcasing the country\u0026rsquo;s resilience in a challenging global environment [SOURCE - CHANNEL NEWSASIA].\nHowever, environmental concerns have emerged following a suspected oil leak at Shell\u0026rsquo;s Pulau Bukom refinery, which led to a temporary shutdown of operations. Fortunately, the l\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/02/decis-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-d8f1/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"new-year-attacks-in-the-us-and-russian-gas-stops-flowing-to-europe\"\u003eNew Year attacks in the US and Russian gas stops flowing to Europe\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere were two apparent terrorist attacks in the US. In New Orleans, a driver deliberately drove into a crowd celebrating New Year, killing 15. While in Las Vegas the driver of a vehicle detonated his Cybertruck outside the Trump Tower killing himself but no others. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-01/10-people-killed-after-vehicle-drives-into-crowd-in-new-orleans\"\u003eMore - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Happy New Year! Andrew Sheves Good morning and a Happy New Year from windy Washington, DC. Wishing you a successful, safe and fulfilling 2025.\nJust the numbers and regional info today and tomorrow, but the full SITREP will be back on Friday and next week I’ll be sharing the 2025 look-ahead.\nKey Metrics WTI is $70.38 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Jan 01 2025 08:05 UTC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland\nRegional News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s banking sector is under scrutiny as Novartis faces bribery allegations related to its Multiple Sclerosis treatment, Gilenya. This controversy comes at a time when the Swiss National Bank has opted for a cautious stance in foreign exchange markets, despite a rally in the Swiss franc during the third quarter [SOURCE - Swissinfo].\nIn the realm of foreign relations, Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s foreign minister emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable relationships with neighboring countries. The nation has also played a pivotal role in facilitating high-level diplomatic efforts, including peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, with Slovakia confirming its willingness to host these discussions [SOURCE - VOA News].\nAs Switzerland navigates these challenges, it is also grappling with the balance between climate protection and renewable energy development in the Alps [SOURCE - Swissinfo].\nIn France, the government is actively engaging in diplomatic efforts concerning Ukraine, despite skepticism from the European Union regarding the deployment of peacekeepers. French Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has revealed that France has offered to conduct secret talks with Russia on the Ukraine issue [SOURCE - RT]. Meanwhile, France has begun its military withdrawal from Chad, handing over its first military base as part of this process [[SOURCE - France 24]](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20241226-france-hands-over-fir\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2025/01/01/decis-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-bb7f/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"happy-new-year\"\u003eHappy New Year!\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and a Happy New Year from windy Washington, DC. Wishing you a successful, safe and fulfilling 2025.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eJust the numbers and regional info today and tomorrow, but the full SITREP will be back on Friday and next week I’ll be sharing the 2025 look-ahead.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"key-metrics\"\u003eKey Metrics\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWTI is $70.38 (Down)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLow |\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWheat is $185.735 (Down)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"German Chancellor condemns Musk\u0026rsquo;s AfD support, Chinese hackers infiltrate the US Treasury and gang violence in Trinidad and Tobago Andrew Sheves\nGood morning. Two quick headlines today.\n🇩🇪 The outgoing German chancellor, Olas Scholz, has condemned Elon Musk’s support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, accusing him of election interference. In addition to his support for Donald Trump and the AfD, Musk also supports the UK’s anti-immigration Reform Party. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\n🏴‍☠️ The US has accused China of hacking US Treasury records. China has denied the accusation but this is the latest of a series of serious breaches of US system by Chinese hackers, following the recent infiltration of US phone networks in early December. [SOURCE - BBC]\n🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago has imposed a state of emergency in response to an increase in gang warfare. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]\nKey Metrics WTI is $70.38 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 31 2024 08:05 UTC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary A series of significant events across the Americas has raised concerns about safety, human rights, and economic stability, underscoring the complex challenges facing the region.\nIn Brazil, a tragic bridge collapse on December 24, 2024, has resulted in at least eight confirmed deaths and numerous individuals still missing. Rescue operations are complicated by fears of hazardous spills from nearby industrial sites, raising alarms about infrastructure safety standards in the country [SOURCE - CBS News]. This incident comes amid broader scrutiny of labor practices, as Brazilian authorities rec\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/31/decis-sitrep-americas-focus-604c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"german-chancellor-condemns-musks-afd-support-chinese-hackers-infiltrate-the-us-treasury-and-gang-violence-in-trinidad-and-tobago\"\u003eGerman Chancellor condemns Musk\u0026rsquo;s AfD support, Chinese hackers infiltrate the US Treasury and gang violence in Trinidad and Tobago\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning. Two quick headlines today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇩🇪 The outgoing German chancellor, Olas Scholz, has condemned Elon Musk’s support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, accusing him of election interference. In addition to his support for Donald Trump and the AfD, Musk also supports the UK’s anti-immigration Reform Party. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-30/musk-berated-by-german-leaders-over-backing-for-far-right-party\"\u003eSOURCE - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Russia admits to downing a civilian airliner, grim end of year conflict statistics and RIP Jimmy Carter Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the last Monday of 2024.\nSome weekend headlines and stories that might have slipped by over the last week.\nRussia admitted that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on December 25th was hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire. The Azeri President has accepted that this was an accident, but it highlights the danger for airlines operating near conflict zones, even where there is no official airspace warning in place. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nDespite threats from incoming US president Trump, Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino has rejected proposed talks concerning the future of the Panama Canal. “…there’s nothing to talk about….The canal is Panamanian and belongs to Panamanians. There’s no possibility of opening any kind of conversation around this reality”. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]\nAmerica’s Republican Party is embroiled in an internal fight over skilled worker visas (H1B) with respect to immigration and entrepreneurship. The program allows skilled workers to enter the US outside of normal quotas and channels and is cited as a big reason for the success of many major American firms, particularly in the tech sector. However, this apparent exemption is anathema to immigration hard-liners like Steve Bannon, who wants all immigration stopped. While a seemingly obscure issue, the H1B visa arguments highlight that for some in the GOP, the immigration fight isn’t just about closing the border and stopping illegal immigration but clamping down on all immigration to the US, including currently legal routes. This would significantly hinder US business and tourism, making this a much more larger fight than it appears. [More in Axios]\nSome grim statistics from some end-of-the-year reporting.\nUNICEF published its ‘State of the Child’ report, which estimated that one in six children — about 470 million — live in a conflict zone. This statistic illustrates how many modern conflicts ignore the traditional distinction of combatant / non-combatant and how force is applied indiscriminately in civilian areas by both state actors and militias. [Full UNICEF report]\nAn Oxfam report from October estimated that 21,000 die daily due to conflict-induced hunger, either due to lack of access to food due to conflict or deliberate withholding of food in conflict areas. [Oxfam report summary].\n![](https://media.be\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/30/decis-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-631d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"russia-admits-to-downing-a-civilian-airliner-grim-end-of-year-conflict-statistics-and-rip-jimmy-carter\"\u003eRussia admits to downing a civilian airliner, grim end of year conflict statistics and RIP Jimmy Carter\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning, and welcome to the last Monday of 2024.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSome weekend headlines and stories that might have slipped by over the last week.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia admitted that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on December 25th was hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire. The Azeri President has accepted that this was an accident, but it highlights the danger for airlines operating near conflict zones, even where there is no official airspace warning in place. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-29/azerbaijan-airlines-crash-azeri-leader-says-russia-accidentally-shot-plane\"\u003eSOURCE - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"Africa summary Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Just the metrics and the regional report today.\nNeed Help Crisis Planning? It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.\nThe problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it\u0026rsquo;s hard to know where to start.\nSo keep things simple: start with the things that might affect your organization specifically because you won\u0026rsquo;t tackle climate change by yourself.\nAnd if you aren\u0026rsquo;t sure what those threats might be, here\u0026rsquo;s something to help.\nI just rebuilt the scenario planner in CrisisDojo and put it outside of the paywall so you can use it to generate likely scenarios for your organization. Plus, it can help outline basic contingency plans and actions to put into place.\nSo ignore the noise: focus on your organization.\nJust go to app.crisisdojo.ai to try it out.\nNo login or credit card required.\nDecis STREP for Africa dated Dec 27 24 Key Metrics WTI is $71.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 27 2024 08:05 UTC\nMore Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇿🇲 Zambia\nRegional News Summary In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), authorities are on high alert due to an unidentified disease exhibiting influenza-like symptoms, raising concerns about a potential outbreak that could lead to widespread disruption and loss of life [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily]. This health crisis is compounded by the ongoing violence perpetrated by the M23 militia, which has displaced over 650,000 people amid reports of mass killings and sexual violence. The militia\u0026rsquo;s actions, allegedly supported by Rwanda, have created a dire humanitarian situation, with innocent civilians caught in the crossfire [SOURCE - Swarajya Mag].\nThe Pope\u0026rsquo;s recent Christmas address highlighted the need for\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/27/decis-sitrep-africa-focus-c2d1/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"africa-summary\"\u003eAfrica summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday. Just the metrics and the regional report today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"need-help-crisis-planning\"\u003eNeed Help Crisis Planning?\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it\u0026rsquo;s hard to know where to start.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Pro-Assad Resistance in Syria and Russia Targeting Transnistria (Again) Andrew Sheves Good morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking.\nDespite the calm in the majority of Syria following the HTS takeover, several majority Alawite towns in Syria remain pro-Assad strongholds. An ambush on Tuesday left 14 HTS-affiliated police dead and 10 wounded as the police tried to arrest a former regime figure. Currently, this doesn’t seem to indicate the beginnings of a counter-HTS insurgency, but it is a reminder that Syria remains somewhat fractured and that many of the former-regime figures are implicated in Assad’s crimes and will do whatever they can to avoid capture. [SOURCE - BBC]\nThere are rumors that Russia might be planning a false flag operation in Transnistria as an excuse to take control and ‘defend’ the breakaway region of Moldova. There’s a good explainer in Al Jazeera here.\nKey Metrics WTI is $71.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 26 2024 08:05 UTC\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, three interior construction firms have been penalized a total of S$10 million for bid-rigging, a move that underscores the government\u0026rsquo;s commitment to maintaining fair practices in the construction industry [SOURCE - Channel News Asia]. Despite this enforcement action, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy remains stable, with core inflation dipping to 1.9% in November, prompting discussions among analysts about its implications for monetary policy [SOURCE - Dimsum Daily].\nMeanwhile, the Bank of Singapore Limited has faced challenges from fraudulent websites impersonating the bank, highlighting the need for vigilance in the financial sector [[SOURCE - Government Information Office Hong Kong]](https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202412/20/P2024122000451.htm?utm_source=news.decis.a\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/26/decis-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-2d35/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"pro-assad-resistance-in-syria-and-russia-targeting-transnistria-again\"\u003ePro-Assad Resistance in Syria and Russia Targeting Transnistria (Again)\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite the calm in the majority of Syria following the HTS takeover, several majority Alawite towns in Syria remain pro-Assad strongholds. An ambush on Tuesday left 14 HTS-affiliated police dead and 10 wounded as the police tried to arrest a former regime figure. Currently, this doesn’t seem to indicate the beginnings of a counter-HTS insurgency, but it is a reminder that Syria remains somewhat fractured and that many of the former-regime figures are implicated in Assad’s crimes and will do whatever they can to avoid capture. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0ew5g3vzreo\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Happy Chrismukkah 🎅 🕎 Andrew Sheves Good morning. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those celebrating.\nJust the numbers and regional info today.\nKey Metrics WTI is $71.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 25 2024 08:06 UTC\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary Switzerland has been navigating a turbulent period marked by significant developments in banking, trade, and foreign investment. The Swiss parliament is currently investigating the collapse of Credit Suisse, revealing critical shortcomings in the nation\u0026rsquo;s banking regulations. This inquiry has prompted calls for reform within the Swiss financial sector, as the banking regulator faces scrutiny for its oversight failures [SOURCE - Swissinfo].\nAmid these challenges, Switzerland has successfully negotiated a historic trade agreement with the EU, aimed at strengthening economic ties during these uncertain times. The deal has elicited mixed reactions from the Swiss press, oscillating between optimism and skepticism [SOURCE - IBTimes].\nIn a notable move to bolster its global investment profile, Switzerland-based Terminal Investment Limited has announced plans to invest approximately ₹20,000 crore in the Vadhvan port project in India. This investment is expected to significantly benefit the Indian economy and reinforce Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s role as a key player in foreign direct investment [SOURCE - NDTV Profit].\nMeanwhile, France is grappling with a political crisis as Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has stepped down, leaving the country without a functioning government. The situation remains tense as President Emmanuel Macron has tasked new Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve with forming a government capable of addressing the nation\u0026rsquo;s crippling debt and high unemployment rates [SOURCE - Hursiyet Daily News].\nI\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/25/decis-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-c542/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"happy-chrismukkah--\"\u003eHappy Chrismukkah 🎅 🕎\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those celebrating.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eJust the numbers and regional info today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"key-metrics\"\u003eKey Metrics\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWTI is $71.03 (Down)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWheat is $185.735 (Down)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"New French Cabinet: plus ça change, plus c\u0026rsquo;est la même chose Andrew Sheves Good morning. Greetings from Aberdeen, Scotland, where we’re enjoying a whopping 6 ½ hours of daylight today….\nTwo headlines from Europe are worth tracking as a taster of what things will look like in 2025.\nIn France, Prime Minister François Bayrou selected Eric Lombard as finance minister, tasked with finding a budget to satisfy all parties in a divided French parliament. Budget concerns were the stated reason for France’s opposition parties bringing down the previous government, so finding an acceptable solution is key for France’s stability, but the view is that Bayrou / Lombard will not significantly differ from the previous government. [SOURCE - Financial Times]\nNote - the French opposition, particularly Marine le Pen, is keen to oust President Macron irrespective of whatever budget is proposed, indicating that France still faces a turbulent 2025.\nvia Bloomberg\nDespite significant confusion over the attacker’s motivation for last week’s Christmas market attack in Margedurg, Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and other nationalist groups are stoking and capitalizing on the resultant anti-immigration sentiment. [SOURCE - BBC]\nThe AfD will enter 2025 in a strong position in the upcoming Federal elections in Germany despite the concerns over their hard-right policies. These and other far-right parties in Europe are also seeing significant support from Elon Musk, which might benefit them financially and through his support on X. [See NBC for more.]\nOn to the numbers.\nKey Metrics WTI is $71.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nWheat is $185.735 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-\u0026lt;\u0026gt;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 24 2024 08:18 UTC\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil\u0026rsquo;s economic landscape is increasingl\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/24/decis-sitrep-americas-focus-f177/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"new-french-cabinet-plus-ca-change-plus-cest-la-meme-chose\"\u003eNew French Cabinet: plus ça change, plus c\u0026rsquo;est la même chose\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. Greetings from Aberdeen, Scotland, where we’re enjoying a whopping 6 ½ hours of daylight today….\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo headlines from Europe are worth tracking as a taster of what things will look like in 2025.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn France, Prime Minister François Bayrou selected Eric Lombard as finance minister, tasked with finding a budget to satisfy all parties in a divided French parliament. Budget concerns were the stated reason for France’s opposition parties bringing down the previous government, so finding an acceptable solution is key for France’s stability, but the view is that Bayrou / Lombard will not significantly differ from the previous government. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/84930dc8-b409-41e9-9d95-ddb4d6753f8c\"\u003eSOURCE - Financial Times\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":" New Metrics Demo[ No Live Ratings Today Andrew Sheves Good morning - I’m transitioning the newsletters to a new system so am resynching everything, meaning that there are no updated country baseline ratings today. (These are still available and cuup to date in the workspace).\nInstead, here’s what the updated SITREP metrics will look like.\nKey Metrics WTI is $71.03 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nWheat is $197.372 (Down)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash; \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026ndash;| High\nEuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)\nLow | \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;-| High\nYuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)\nLow |\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026gt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\nGraphs are illustrative to show comparative prices over last 180 days\nMetrics via AlphaVantage updated Dec 22 2024 21:58 UTC\nFor each metric, there will now be the current value, the direction since the previous value (daily, monthly, depending upon the index), and a simple comparative value chart showing where the current value lies compared to the highs and lows of the last 180 days. Hopefully, this is a more valuable and useful set of metrics to help with decision-making.\nSimilarly, I plan to add a comparative rating scale for country stability ratings from week to week but that is a 2025 project.\nI’ll be back with the normal SITREP tomorrow but look out for the change late this week.\nCarpe tomorrow!\nDecis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/23/new-metrics-demo/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eNew Metrics Demo[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"no-live-ratings-today\"\u003eNo Live Ratings Today\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning - I’m transitioning the newsletters to a new system so am resynching everything, meaning that there are no updated country baseline ratings today. (These are still available and cuup to date in the workspace).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eInstead, here’s what the updated SITREP metrics will look like.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"key-metrics\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eKey Metrics\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWTI is $71.03 (Down)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLow |\u0026mdash;- \u0026lt; \u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;\u0026mdash;| High\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWheat is $197.372 (Down)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"New Metrics Demo"},{"content":"Shutdown looms in DC and US Diplomats in Damascus Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick updates to kick us off.\nThe US government seems headed for a shutdown as House Republicans scuttled their own stopgap bill on Thursday night. This follows their rejection of a long-negotiated bipartisan spending bill after opposition from Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Government funding runs out at midnight. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nIn another positive step in Syria’s transition, US representatives have met with the HTS-led interim government in Syria. [SOURCE - BBC]\nNeed Help Crisis Planning? It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.\nThe problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it\u0026rsquo;s hard to know where to start.\nSo keep things simple: start with the things that might affect your organization specifically because you won\u0026rsquo;t tackle climate change by yourself.\nAnd if you aren\u0026rsquo;t sure what those threats might be, here\u0026rsquo;s something to help.\nI just rebuilt the scenario planner in CrisisDojo and put it outside of the paywall so you can use it to generate likely scenarios for your organization. Plus, it can help outline basic contingency plans and actions to put into place.\nSo ignore the noise: focus on your organization.\nJust go to app.crisisdojo.ai to try it out.\nNo login or credit card required.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), fighting between the army and rebel groups has intensified, raising concerns about the upcoming peace talks. Scheduled negotiations with Rwanda were recently canceled, further complicating efforts to stabilize the region [SOURCE - Japan Today]. Amidst this turmoil, a mysterious illness, later identified as severe malaria, has led to numerous deaths among vulnerable populations, partic\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/20/decis-sitrep-africa-focus-766b/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"shutdown-looms-in-dc-and-us-diplomats-in-damascus\"\u003eShutdown looms in DC and US Diplomats in Damascus\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday. Two quick updates to kick us off.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe US government seems headed for a shutdown as House Republicans scuttled their own stopgap bill on Thursday night. This follows their rejection of a long-negotiated bipartisan spending bill after opposition from Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Government funding runs out at midnight. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/trump-backed-gop-funding-plan-fails-in-house-as-shutdown-nears\"\u003eSOURCE - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn another positive step in Syria’s transition, US representatives have met with the HTS-led interim government in Syria. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07gv3j818ko\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Shutdown looms in DC and what this means for 2025. Andrew Sheves Good morning. One big headline worth considering today.\nUS Republicans in the House pulled a bipartisan spending bill that would have funded the government until Spring following Tweets condemning the bill from Elon Musk and opposition from President-elect Donald Trump. Current funding runs out at midnight on Friday, and the house is due to recess this weekend. [SOURCE - BBC]\nElon Musk via x.com\nCommentary\nNormally, a short-term resolution would keep the government open until a more long-term bill could be agreed upon. However, this would require GOP Speaker Johnson to gather support from Democrats, and a similar deal brought down his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. Therefore, the chance of a government shutdown is real, and if so, it would likely continue until January 20th, when Trump takes office.\nIt’s also important to recognize that, irrespective of the bill’s merits or lack thereof, it was doomed after Elon Musk Tweeted his opposition, calling it ‘criminal’ and urging Congress not to pass any bills until Trump is in office. This should banish any thoughts that Congress won’t fall in line with the incoming administration and that Trump and Musk fully intend to follow through on all campaign promises, in this case, cutting government spending, irrespective of what the spending is for.\nThe big takeaway is that it’s worth spending some time between now and January 20th examining everything that Trump, Musk, and others have promised (and threatened) to do, and determine how that affects your business and operations. It seems prudent to take the incoming adminsitration’s statements both seriously and literally.\nUpcoming SITREP Changes\nTwo big changes are coming to the SITREPS.\nMetrics.\nFirst, the metrics will be calculated at the end of the previous business day instead of the morning of the report. For example, the metrics for today are the market data from 17:30ET yesterday, December 18. This is to assist with the automation push (see below).\nSecond, you’ll soon start to see the metrics on a comparative scale to show 1) how the latest daily value relates to prices over the last 45-days and 2) whether the latest value is higher, lower or unchanged from the previous value. This is still in development but here’s a rough concept.\nOil is Up at $75\nVery Low - - - - - - - - Mid-Range - - - - - - - - Very High\n-| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ▶ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |-\nMetric tracker concept I’ll also be changing the metrics being tracked to make these more widely applicable. If you have any suggestions, please let me know.\nFull Automation.\nThe SITREP content is already highly automated — I do the headlines, some editing and quality control but the main report is all generated by the Decis engine. However, I aim to have these published 100% automatically unless I see something that needs correcting. This reduces publishing delays and allows me to focus on quality improvements in the background instead of tinkering with the editing at 05:30.\nI plan to get these rolled out over the next few days but there will be several steps to complete the whole process. The biggest cha\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/19/decis-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-57a6/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"shutdown-looms-in-dc-and-what-this-means-for-2025\"\u003eShutdown looms in DC and what this means for 2025.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. One big headline worth considering today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUS Republicans in the House pulled a bipartisan spending bill that would have funded the government until Spring following Tweets condemning the bill from Elon Musk and opposition from President-elect Donald Trump. Current funding runs out at midnight on Friday, and the house is due to recess this weekend. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0e7j94732o\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Streamlined version Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines to share today, let’s get right to the ratings and news.\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$70.52\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.05\n₿ Bitcoin\n$104,564\nAs at Dec 18, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia\nRegional News Summary Switzerland is making strides in its negotiations with the European Union, with discussions nearing conclusion amid intense dialogue. The outcome of these negotiations will be pivotal for Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s future relationship with the EU [SOURCE - Swissinfo]. Additionally, Switzerland has taken a firm stance on global issues, freezing CHF 99 million in Syrian funds and supporting the UN\u0026rsquo;s ceasefire resolution in Gaza [SOURCE - Swissinfo].\nIn the realm of finance, the Swiss National Bank has responded to economic pressures by lowering its key interest rate by 0.5%, raising concerns that it may edge towards a zero-interest rate in its ongoing tussle with speculators [SOURCE - Swissinfo]. This decision reflects a broader trend as central banks globally consider rate cuts amid economic uncertainty, which could have significant repercussions for international trade agreements [SOURCE - Investing.com[]](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/morning-bid-global-rate-cuts-put-dollar-in-drivers-seat-3770603).\nMeanwhile, France is grappling with a political crisis that has led to a loss of confidence in President Emmanuel Macron\u0026rsquo;s government. The recent cabinet reshuffle and the appointment of a new prime minister come as the country faces a downgraded credit rating from Moody\u0026rsquo;s due to ongoing political fragmentation [SOURCE - Financial Times]. Business lead\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/18/decis-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-01b4/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"streamlined-version\"\u003eStreamlined version\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. No headlines to share today, let’s get right to the ratings and news.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"commodity-and-rate-snapshot\"\u003eCommodity and Rate Snapshot\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$70.52\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e💵 **USD:EUR **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$1.05\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e₿ \u003cstrong\u003eBitcoin\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$104,564\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAs at Dec 18, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"europe-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Russian General Assassination, Mass Graves in Syria and Vanuatu Earthquake Andrew Sheves Good morning. Some quick headlines worth tracking.\nUkraine assassinated Russian General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. Kirillov was head of the Russian chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons program and a Russian military spokesman. [SOURCE - France24]\nA large A 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck near Vanuatu’s capital, causing widespread destruction but casualty numbers and the full extent of the damage are still unclear. [[SOURCE - BBC](http://A 7.3 magnitude earthquake has struck near Vanuatu\u0026rsquo;s capital Port Vila)]\nA mass grave containing an estimated 100,000 bodies was discovered in Syria. It is thought to be one of many mass graves used by the Assad regime as part of their industrial-scale prison system. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera. Note that the images and coverage are distressing.]\nCanada’s Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland, abruptly and dramatically resigned, leaving the Trudeau government weakened and increasing calls for his resignation from both the opposition and his own party. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$70.10\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.05\n₿ Bitcoin\n$107,123\nAs at Dec 17, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been recovering from emergency brain surgery, having recently undergone a second procedure to prevent further complications. While Lula has been discharged and is speaking publicly again, the nation faces a state of emergency due to severe water shortages affecting five major rivers, a situation exacerbated by prolonged drought conditions. The government is working to mitigate the impact on agriculture and ecosystems as it grapples with these environmental challenges [SOURCE - Mercopress].\nEconomically, Brazil is showing signs of recovery, with the Centre for Latin American Monetary Studies predicting a GDP growth of 3.5% for 2024, driven largely by the service sector. However, inflation rema\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/17/decis-sitrep-americas-focus-c283/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"russian-general-assassination-mass-graves-in-syria-and-vanuatu-earthquake\"\u003eRussian General Assassination, Mass Graves in Syria and Vanuatu Earthquake\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. Some quick headlines worth tracking.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUkraine assassinated Russian General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. Kirillov was head of the Russian chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons program and a Russian military spokesman. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241217-senior-russian-military-official-killed-in-moscow-blast\"\u003eSOURCE - France24\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA large A 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck near Vanuatu’s capital, causing widespread destruction but casualty numbers and the full extent of the damage are still unclear. [[SOURCE - BBC](http://A 7.3 magnitude earthquake has struck near Vanuatu\u0026rsquo;s capital Port Vila)]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Headlines from a busy weekend and a big product update Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nIt was a busy weekend: here are the headlines.\nSouth Korea’s Parliament voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for his declaration of martial law two weeks ago. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo takes over as acting president while the impeachment process continues. Courts have 180 days to decide Yopon’s fate. [SOURCE - BBC]\nAnti-EU candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected president of Georgia, raising fears that the country was being pulled back into Moscow’s orbit. [SOURCE - AP]\nTwo Russian tankers broke apart dramatically in the Kerch Strait between Crimea and Russia, reportedly causing significant spills of oil and petroleum. [SOURCE - G Captain] Compounding the potential damage is the lack of adequate insurance on many Russian tankers due to international sanctions, meaning that there could be insufficient funds to pay for the cleanup.\nIsrael announced plans to expand control farther into the Golan Heights to create a wider buffer zone with Syria, although most regional observers see this as an opportunistic land grab into Syria. [SOURCE - Reuters]\nThe US and European powers are establishing contact with the new Syrian regime despite a reluctance in Washington to de-designate Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) as a terrorist group. [SOURCE - Washington Post]\nCyclone Chido hit the French protectorate of Mayotte with estimates that hundreds, possibly thousands, have been killed. Mayotte is a French overseas départment, northwest of Madagascar. [SOURCE - France24]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$70.52\n🚢 Containers (FBX Index)\n$3,659\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.05 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$104,671\nAs at December 16, 06:30ET - Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nBefore we get to the ratings, I am very excited to share the latest from Decis Intelligence.\nDynamic Risk Tracking in the Decis Platform Make the risk assessment update you, not the other way around\nAs risk managers, we spend weeks, maybe months, each year updating our risk assessment. It’s a key part of the job.\nBut the problem is 1) these become snapshots in time, unresponsive to event\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/16/decis-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-d488/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"headlines-from-a-busy-weekend-and-a-big-product-update\"\u003eHeadlines from a busy weekend and a big product update\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt was a busy weekend: here are the headlines.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSouth Korea’s Parliament voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for his declaration of martial law two weeks ago. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo takes over as acting president while the impeachment process continues. Courts have 180 days to decide Yopon’s fate. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c140xjv31lxo\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnti-EU candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected president of Georgia, raising fears that the country was being pulled back into Moscow’s orbit. [\u003ca href=\"https://apnews.com/article/georgia-president-zourabichvili-russia-kavelashvili-protests-3a7f5018879c77b6c596d312a163b79c\"\u003eSOURCE - AP\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"A Positive Note on Syria and Weekend Long Reads Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.\nThis time last week, I wrote, “Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight”.\nHow wrong I was: Damascus fell with very little opposition, if any, and the transition to a caretaker government in Syria has been measured, calm, and nothing short of remarkable. The country has a long, complicated path ahead but the first few days of post-Assad Syria give hope for cautious optimism.\nI wanted to flag not only my own mistake but also this positive news: there is a bias towards negativity in the news — ‘if it bleeds, it leads’ — and nihilism in geopolitics (often under the guise of realism), both of which are self-reinforcing and can become self fulfilling. So while a lot of the risk we cover is negative, it’s important to highlight opportunities where they arise and I think there is a lot to be hopeful for in Syria.\nSome quick headlines.\nThe Arkan Army, an insurgent group in Western Myanmar, has seized the entire border between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Notably, this group is separate from the Rohingya separatists, who also oppose the country’s military rulers. [SOURCE - BBC]\nAs I write this: “French President Emmanuel Macron named centrist politician François Bayrou as the country\u0026rsquo;s new prime minister” [SOURCE - France24]\nNeed Help Crisis Planning? It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.\nThe problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it\u0026rsquo;s hard to know where to start.\nSo keep things simple: start with the things that might affect your organization specifically because you won\u0026rsquo;t tackle climate change by yourself.\nAnd if you aren\u0026rsquo;t sure what those threats might be, here\u0026rsquo;s something to help.\nI just rebuilt the scenario planner in CrisisDojo and put it outside of the paywall so you can use it to generate likely scenarios for your organization. Plus, it can help outline basic contingency plans and actions to put into place.\nSo ignore the noise: focus on your organization.\nJust go to app.crisisdojo.ai to try it out.\nNo login or credit card required.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this perio\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/13/decis-sitrep-africa-focus-2c3e/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"a-positive-note-on-syria-and-weekend-long-reads\"\u003eA Positive Note on Syria and Weekend Long Reads\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis time last week, I wrote, “\u003cem\u003eHoms will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight\u003c/em\u003e”.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHow wrong I was: Damascus fell with very little opposition, if any, and the transition to a caretaker government in Syria has been measured, calm, and nothing short of remarkable. The country has a long, complicated path ahead but the first few days of post-Assad Syria give hope for cautious optimism.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"I’ve had a lot of conversations about risk assessments recently and just finished a new feature in the Decis platform, both of which prompted this thought: What if we have things backwards? What if our risk assessment updated us instead of the other way around?\nWe spend days — sometimes weeks — building a comprehensive risk assessment to understand our risks and build mitigation measures. But these are snapshots in time and can quickly become overtaken by events. That’s when we move from risk management to incident management or at minimum, we have to review our mitigation.\n(The offending feature that prompted this thought)\nBut a lot of risk assessments suck up so much time that by the end, there’s no energy or enthusiasm for implementing the mitigation measures.\nSo what if we turned things around? What if the risk assessment updated us?\nIf we establish parameters for ‘normal’, then measure those automatically we’d have a dynamic picture of our risk that updates in near real time.\nOnce we have that system, it’s easy to set additional triggers to alert decision-makers that the situation has changed. And in the same vein, we could even start warming up some contingencies automatically.\nThat way, our risk assessment informs us and initiates pre-agreed measures in response.\nThis would only work for a data-driven risk assessment (versus a simulation-driven model), so the model only moves when the situation changes meaningfully, but we can easily set up filters to track what’s important and notice when it changes.\nThis still leaves a lot of human-centric control in place: a human reviews the evidence to determine if they agree with the model’s assessment; a human has to decide to implement a contingency plan, etc.\nBut we’ve now built a proactive, automated system to alert us when something moves outside of our normal parameters and we’ve been prompted to take action right away.\nThere’s probably some better language to use here: the risk assessment is a forward-looking forecast of what might happen so we can prepare appropriately. Maybe this should be a risk tracker or event monitor, but the nomenclature isn’t a priority right now.\nToo often, we genuflect to the risk assessment and treat this as the pinnacle of the industry, but that would make us risk assessors, not risk managers.\nSo let’s stop working for the risk assessment and get the risk assessment to work for us.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/13/getting-the-risk-assessment-to-work-for-us/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI’ve had a lot of conversations about risk assessments recently and just finished a new feature in the Decis platform, both of which prompted this thought: What if we have things backwards? What if our risk assessment updated us instead of the other way around?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe spend days — sometimes weeks — building a comprehensive risk assessment to understand our risks and build mitigation measures. But these are snapshots in time and can quickly become overtaken by events. That’s when we move from risk management to incident management or at minimum, we have to review our mitigation.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Getting the Risk Assessment to Work For Us"},{"content":"Bulgaria and Romania Join Schengen and Turkish Diplomacy in East Africa Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines on positive diplomatic developments.\nBulgaria and Romania were accepted into the EU’s Schengen visa scheme, which allows visa-free travel around the European Union for residents or visa holders of countries that are members of the scheme. [SOURCE - BBC]\nTurkey brokered a deal between Somalia and Ethiopia, defusing tensions over Ethiopia\u0026rsquo;s plan to open a port in the independent Somaliland region. The deal commits both parties to talks to establish improved diplomatic and commercial ties, easing decades-long tensions between the two East African neighbors. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]\nNote - This is good example of Erdogan’s statesmanship and a reminder of Turkey’s role in regional events, which is often underreported in Western media.\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$70.24\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.053\n₿ Bitcoin\n$100,369\nAs at Dec 12, 06:30ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nAsia News Summary Singapore is making strides in sustainability, having signed a Memorandum of Understanding with JBM Group to promote energy transition and reduce carbon emissions [SOURCE - The Hindu]. The city-state\u0026rsquo;s real estate market is also witnessing significant changes, with billionaire Gordon Tang agreeing to acquire Suntec REIT for $2.5 billion, reflecting the evolving landscape of property investments [SOURCE - Forbes].\nIn the South China Sea, tensions have escalated between China and** the Philippine**s, with the latter filing a diplomatic protest following clashes at disputed shoals. This incident has reignited calls for international intervention to address the ongoing territorial disputes [SOURCE - [Diplomat.com](https://Diplomat.com?utm_sou\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/12/decis-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-ca1c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"bulgaria-and-romania-join-schengen-and-turkish-diplomacy-in-east-africa\"\u003eBulgaria and Romania Join Schengen and Turkish Diplomacy in East Africa\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. Two quick headlines on positive diplomatic developments.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBulgaria and Romania were accepted into the EU’s Schengen visa scheme, which allows visa-free travel around the European Union for residents or visa holders of countries that are members of the scheme. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4xjj4xde3o\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTurkey brokered a deal between Somalia and Ethiopia, defusing tensions over Ethiopia\u0026rsquo;s plan to open a port in the independent Somaliland region. The deal commits both parties to talks to establish improved diplomatic and commercial ties, easing decades-long tensions between the two East African neighbors. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/12/somalia-ethiopia-agree-on-compromise-to-end-tension-turkish-leader-says\"\u003eSOURCE - Al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Syria transition continues peacefully and wildfire in CA. Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nThe Syrian opposition continues to establish control of the government in coordination with members of the Assad regime, continuing the surprisingly orderly and measured takeover of power. Isreal is continuing to destroy military installations across the country, reportedly hitting almost 500 sites in the last 48 hours. [SOURCE - AL Jazeera]\nA significant wildfire, named the Franklin Fire, continues to burn in Malibu County CA, a major suburb of Los Angeles. The suburb is popular with celebrities, and many well-known figures are among those being forced to evacuate. [SOURCE - BBC] [SOURCE - CalFire map]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$69.20\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.050*(Price of 1EUR in USD)*\n₿ Bitcoin\n$98,248\nAs at Dec 11, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEuropean News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economic outlook has been mixed, as the country grapples with a decline in foreign reserves for the second consecutive month, attributed to the strength of the US dollar. This trend raises concerns about potential impacts on currency exchange and trade policies [SOURCE - Yonhap News Agency]. However, there are signs of resilience in the Swiss financial sector, highlighted by the successful Hong Kong-Switzerland Financial Dialogue aimed at strengthening economic ties, and a notable recovery in Watches of Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s stock [SOURCE - Hong Kong Government Information Centre].\nMeanwhile, France is engulfed in a political crisis following the collapse of Prime Minister Michel Barnier\u0026rsquo;s government after a no-confidence vote. This political turmoil has raised concerns about the stability of President Emmanuel Macron\u0026rsquo;s administration and its ability to address pressing socio-economic issues, including strikes and protests that have plagued the country [[SOURCE - NDTV]](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/explai\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/11/decis-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-fe82/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"syria-transition-continues-peacefully-and-wildfire-in-ca\"\u003eSyria transition continues peacefully and wildfire in CA.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Syrian opposition continues to establish control of the government in coordination with members of the Assad regime, continuing the surprisingly orderly and measured takeover of power. Isreal is continuing to destroy military installations across the country, reportedly hitting almost 500 sites in the last 48 hours. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/12/11/syria-live-news-new-leaders-call-for-stability-israel-launches-480-raids\"\u003eSOURCE - AL Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA significant wildfire, named the Franklin Fire, continues to burn in Malibu County CA, a major suburb of Los Angeles. The suburb is popular with celebrities, and many well-known figures are among those being forced to evacuate. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2enepy8g8o\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e] [\u003ca href=\"https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2024/12/9/franklin-fire\"\u003eSOURCE - CalFire map\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Israeli strikes and incursions in Syria as the HTS transition continues Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines from Syria.\nIsrael has conducted over 250 missile strikes around Syria and pushed deeper into the Golan Heights in the last 48 hours, in response to the fall of Bashir al-Assaed and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) takeover. Israel has described the seizure of territory as a temporary security measure, but governments in the region are describing this as an illegal occupation. [SOURCE - al Jazeera]\nHTS has installed Mohammed al-Bashir as interim Prime Minister following a meeting between HTS’s head, Ahmned al-Shahraa (formerly known as al-Jolani), al-Bashir and the former Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalani. This continues the apparent careful and methodical approach HTS is taking to the seizure of power. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$67.86\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.05 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$97,718\nAs at Dec 10, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nAmericas News Summary In Brazil, the energy sector is undergoing notable changes as Petrobras, the state-controlled oil giant, faces leadership upheaval. The chairman is expected to depart for a role at the country\u0026rsquo;s oil regulator, a move that underscores the government\u0026rsquo;s ambition to privatize the company and attract foreign investment. Petrobras\u0026rsquo; CEO has emphasized the need for the company to expand its influence within the energy sector, stating it must be \u0026ldquo;as big as possible\u0026rdquo; to meet national energy demands [SOURCE - Financial Times]. Economic indicators from Brazil show a mixed picture. The country recorded a GDP growth of 0.9% in the third quarter of 2024, alongside a foreign exchange surplus of $8.5 billion, despite ongoing financial outflows [SOURCE - Rio Times]. However, challenges persist in the agricultural sector, with key crops struggling and the government planning a substantial investment in biofuels to support farmers [[SOURCE - Rio Times]](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-plans-r-1-trillion-investment-in-biofuels-by-2034\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/10/decis-sitrep-americas-focus-5919/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"israeli-strikes-and-incursions-in-syria-as-the-hts-transition-continues\"\u003eIsraeli strikes and incursions in Syria as the HTS transition continues\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. Two headlines from Syria.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael has conducted over 250 missile strikes around Syria and pushed deeper into the Golan Heights in the last 48 hours, in response to the fall of Bashir al-Assaed and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) takeover. Israel has described the seizure of territory as a temporary security measure, but governments in the region are describing this as an illegal occupation. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/barrage-of-israeli-attacks-destroys-important-military-sites-in-syria\"\u003eSOURCE - al Jazeera\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Syria without Assad, Election Rerun in Romania, and Impeachment Fails in Seoul Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nIt was a monumental weekend in and for the Middle East as the Assad regime fell after 50 years of brutal rule in Syria. After a startlingly fast and relatively bloodless sweep of the country by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels, HTS is now in charge of Damascus and most of Western and central Syria from the Turkish border to Jordan. I was wrong in my assessment on Friday as I anticipated elements of the regime to put up some kind of resistance, but it seems that the majority of the military either surrendered or melted away, allowing the rebels to take Damascus essentially unopposed.\nWhat’s next is a big question: there are legitimate concerns that there could be a rerun of the chaos that unfolded in Libya after the fall of Muammar Qadaffi, or that the more recent softening of HTS will quickly be replaced by a more stringent form of Islam. Islamic State is still active in parts of Syria and Turkey is fighting the Kurdish YPG in the north east so a peaceful, united Syria is a long way away. However, as of Monday morning, the situation appears calm and there are positive overtures from regional and some Western powers toward HTS, all of which are positive signs.\nOn the the headlines.\nWeekend Stories of Note The biggest story this weekend was Syria and the remarkable speed with which the Assad regime fell and the ease with which HTS-led rebels were able to take control of Damascus. By Sunday evening Assad and his family were believed to be in Moscow after he had resigned as president and the Prime Minister was in the process of handing over control to the rebels. Significant parts of the Syrian military had laid down their weapons and refused to fight, while others had headed to the Iraqi border and surrendered to the Iraqi forces. Hezbollah had retreated to Lebanon and the Russian military was also believed to be packing up their bases and preparing to leave.\nHTS has been remaking itself for many years to shed its previous affiliations with Al-Qaeda: notably, its leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, just dropped his ‘jihadi’ name, Abu Mohammed Al-Jawlani. The group has been careful to telegraph its intentions, conducting significant amounts of diplomatic outreach and regularly communicating with the people of Syria as they made their advance. So far, it appears that they have a well-thought-out plan for taking control of Damascus and the areas previously under the control of the Assad regime, and the Syrian population generally seems to be pleased with their arrival. What happens after this euphoria wears off is unclear, but the speed and relatively bloodless nature of Assad\u0026rsquo;s fall may offer a real opportunity for Syria’s future. [SOURCE - Multiple news outlets plus social media. Live Coverage on the BBC]\nDue to concerns about the significant amount of Russian interference via social media with the first round of presidential elections, the Supreme Court in Romania annulled those results and demanded that the election be rerun. [SOURCE - Euronews]\nA much-antici\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/09/decis-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-cb52/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"syria-without-assad-election-rerun-in-romania-and-impeachment-fails-in-seoul\"\u003eSyria without Assad, Election Rerun in Romania, and Impeachment Fails in Seoul\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt was a monumental weekend in and for the Middle East as the Assad regime fell after 50 years of brutal rule in Syria. After a startlingly fast and relatively bloodless sweep of the country by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels, HTS is now in charge of Damascus and most of Western and central Syria from the Turkish border to Jordan. I was wrong in my assessment on Friday as I anticipated elements of the regime to put up some kind of resistance, but it seems that the majority of the military either surrendered or melted away, allowing the rebels to take Damascus essentially unopposed.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"The Syrian opposition reaches Homs and weekend long reads Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. One big story to watch this weekend is what happens Syria.\nSyrian government forces quickly retreated from the city of Hama on Thursday, allowing the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led opposition to quickly take the city. Alawites were seen fleeing the city in advance of the rebels but many others seemed to welcome the rebels. As of Friday morning ET, the opposition forces are now close to the nearby city of Homs, which is the last city between their north base and the capital, Damascus. [BBC Live Tracker]\nComment - Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight as there is nowhere for the Assad regime forces to fall back to. Assad and some high-level supporters will have the opportunity to flee to a sympathetic country and this may happen sooner rather than later.\nHowever, many of the regime’s top commanders will be stranded along with many Alawites and there are a lot of scores to settle with the leaders of the Assad regime after so many years of brutal civil war. What happens in the long term is unclear, but in the short term, it is worth getting to know Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of HTS. [AL Jazeera Profile]\nClarification - Despite initial reports of sabotage, Finnish authorities said that damage to fiber optic cables earlier this week was accidental, not sabotage. [SOURCE - AP]\nNeed Help Crisis Planning? It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.\nThe problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it\u0026rsquo;s hard to know where to start.\nSo keep things simple: start with the things that might affect your organization specifically because you won\u0026rsquo;t tackle climate change by yourself.\nAnd if you aren\u0026rsquo;t sure what those threats might be, here\u0026rsquo;s something to help.\nI just rebuilt the scenario planner in CrisisDojo and put it outside of the paywall so you can use it to generate likely scenarios for your organization. Plus, it can help outline basic contingency plans and actions to put into place.\nSo ignore the noise: focus on your organization.\nJust go to app.crisisdojo.ai to try it out.\nNo login or credit card required.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/06/decis-sitrep-africa-focus-1c2d/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"the-syrian-opposition-reaches-homs-and-weekend-long-reads\"\u003eThe Syrian opposition reaches Homs and weekend long reads\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday. One big story to watch this weekend is what happens Syria.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSyrian government forces quickly retreated from the city of Hama on Thursday, allowing the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led opposition to quickly take the city. Alawites were seen fleeing the city in advance of the rebels but many others seemed to welcome the rebels. As of Friday morning ET, the opposition forces are now close to the nearby city of Homs, which is the last city between their north base and the capital, Damascus. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t\"\u003eBBC Live Tracker\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"French government collapse, crackdowns in Georgia and bitcoin goes to the moon Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nThe French government collapsed after far-right and far-left parties united in a vote of no confidence, forcing out Prime Minister Michel Barnier. What happens next is unclear. Elections cannot be called until July leaving President Macron to try to establish some form of functional government within the existing Assembly, where the three main groups are riven by differences. [SOURCE and long read - Bloomberg]\nEvents are escalating in Georgia, where the country is about to enter its second week of protests against the suspension of EU ascension talks. On Wednesday, several opposition figures were forcibly arrested in Tbilisi. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has vowed to take a hard line against the protests and shows no indication of backing down from his anti-European stance, despite the protests and resignations of senior party figures and some Ambassadors. [SOURCE - BBC]\nChina cut off exports of some rare earth minerals to America in response to another round of restrictions on hi-tech equipment exports from the US to China. These export restrictions are on a national security basis, but China remains the world’s largest producer of these minerals, which are critical to the semiconductor industry. [Source - Al Jazeera]\n(Our deep Dive report on rare earth minerals is here, although note that it is from February, so the country ratings may have changed. I will public an updated version of this and other research reports soon.)\nThere was more evidence of the ‘Trump Trade’ as Bitcoin broke the $100,000 barrier following President-elect Trump’s nomination of a pro-crypto head for the SEC. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nLawmakers in Seoul will vote on Saturday to impeach President Yoon after his short-lived imposition of martial law. The current turbulence in normally stable South Korea is causing significant uncertainty. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]\nA quick ask\n*There’s a poll at the bottom of the report and it would be incredibly useful if you could take 30 seconds to let us know how we’re doing. Good, bad, ugly? Just let us know. Thank you *🙏\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$68.21\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.053 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$102,708\nAs at Dec 5, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAsia Stabi Carpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/05/decis-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-dc6e/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"french-government-collapse-crackdowns-in-georgia-and-bitcoin-goes-to-the-moon\"\u003eFrench government collapse, crackdowns in Georgia and bitcoin goes to the moon\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe French government collapsed after far-right and far-left parties united in a vote of no confidence, forcing out Prime Minister Michel Barnier. What happens next is unclear. Elections cannot be called until July leaving President Macron to try to establish some form of functional government within the existing Assembly, where the three main groups are riven by differences. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-12-04/france-no-confidence-vote-what-next-for-macron-barnier-le-pen\"\u003eSOURCE and long read - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Martial law in Seoul and a Clash in the South China Sea Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nCiting vague and unspecific concerns about his political opposition, South Korean President Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday. Six hours of chaos and confusion resulted before Parliament and his cabinet forced him to overturn the decree. Yoon now faces impeachment changes that will go to a vote in Seoul’s parliament on Wednesday. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nA timeline of events from Bloomberg\nThe disputed area around the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea remains a potential flashpoint. Earlier Wednesday, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel reportedly sideswiped and used a water cannon against a Philippines Fisheries Department vessel in the area which lies in the Philippines’s territorial waters. [SOURCE - BBC]\n](https://Map of Chinas Seven Dash Line and explainer of the dispute in the Economist)Map from an explainer in the Economist\nNamibia elected its first female president, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$70.42\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.050*(Price of 1EUR in USD)*\n₿ Bitcoin\n$96,537\nAs at Dec 4, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland\nEurope News Summary Switzerland has faced a setback in its climate initiatives as parliament rejected a proposal to triple state-sponsored funding aimed at combating climate change. Lawmakers expressed concerns over the financial burden on taxpayers, despite increasing global pressure to address environmental issues. This\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/04/decis-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-7f9c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"martial-law-in-seoul-and-a-clash-in-the-south-china-sea\"\u003eMartial law in Seoul and a Clash in the South China Sea\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCiting vague and unspecific concerns about his political opposition, South Korean President Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday. Six hours of chaos and confusion resulted before Parliament and his cabinet forced him to overturn the decree. Yoon now faces impeachment changes that will go to a vote in Seoul’s parliament on Wednesday. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-04/how-six-hours-of-martial-law-reshaped-a-stunned-south-korea\"\u003eSOURCE - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"Turbulence in Europe and the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is shaky Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nThere are three big stories worth tracking today, but first, it’s worth pulling a few of these together.\nComment\nThe macro trend at the moment is increasing turbulence and weakness across Europe through a confluence of factors: internal political wrangling (France, below), economic difficulties (Germany), Russian hybrid warfare (telecoms sabotage, below), and the seeming undoing of the ‘color revolutions’ as eastern european countries drift back towards Moscow (e.g., Georgia).\nAdded to this are uncertainties over US tarrifs and the deal Donlad Trump will push on Ukraine to end the war making for a very uncertin 2025 with respect to Europe.\nThe ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah looks increasingly shaky. Israel has conducted daily strikes against Hezbollah, accusing the group of not sticking to the terms of the truce. Hezbollah responded in kind on Monday with a “warning strike” that resulted in multiple retaliatory Israeli airstrikes, killing nine. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]\nAnother telecommunications cable in Europe was damaged in what polic suspect was criminal behavior. The cable between Finland and Sweden was severed on Monday, causing an internet outage [Source - Euronews] This follows other recent attacks on infrastructure in the Baltics which Sir Richard Moore, head of the UK’s MI6, has called part of a “staggeringly reckless campaign of Russian sabotage in Europe”. [Full speech text]\nThere will be a vote of no-confidence in the French Parliament on Wednesday, which seems likely to collapse the current government. This makes it extremely unlikely that France will meet its end-of-year budget deadline creating huge uncertainty over the direction of the French economy. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$68.85\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.052 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$94,888\nAs at Dec 3, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/03/decis-sitrep-americas-focus-7906/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"turbulence-in-europe-and-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-is-shaky\"\u003eTurbulence in Europe and the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is shaky\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are three big stories worth tracking today, but first, it’s worth pulling a few of these together.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eComment\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe macro trend at the moment is increasing turbulence and weakness across Europe through a confluence of factors: internal political wrangling (France, below), economic difficulties (\u003ca href=\"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/10/15/how-the-german-economy-went-from-bad-to-worse\"\u003eGermany\u003c/a\u003e), Russian hybrid warfare (telecoms sabotage, below), and the seeming undoing of the ‘color revolutions’ as eastern european countries drift back towards Moscow (e.g., \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj49xg5en09o\"\u003eGeorgia\u003c/a\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Opposition advances in Syria, protests in Georgia and Romania, and Trudeau reacts to Trump tariff threats Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nThere were several major events over the weekend worth keeping track of, but before we get to those, a quick seasonal health warning because this can be the most dangerous time of the year for a lot of organizations.\nWait. Didn\u0026rsquo;t Andy Williams tell us this was The Most Wonderful Time of the Year?\nYes, and for many, it will be. But all the excitement (and stress) of the holidays makes people distracted. Throw in a significant number days off, plus end-of-year deadlines, and the result is people are rushing to get more things done, in less time than normal, while their minds are elsewhere.\nSo make sure you’re monitoring what’s important and have some contingencies in place for the holidays and maybe streamline things to take account of the distractions there this month.\n(On the plus side, February is a close second to September as far as great months to get things done so you can start planning your Q1 project now.)\nOn to the headlines.\nWeekend Stories of Note A loose coalition of Syrian opposition fighters, centered around Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), made major advances over the weekend, taking control of the second city, Aleppo, before beginning to move south towards Hama and Homs. This was the first major change in the battlefield in Syria since 2020 and the rapid fall of Aleppo is a major defeat for the Syrian regime. However, President Bashar al Assad and his regime still enjoy support from Russia which provides them with air superiority and the potential to repeat the “scorched earth” tactics used before. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]\n👉 Follow Charles Lister on Twitter / X for some of the best English language coverage of Syria.\nMap - Al Jazeera\nLarge-scale protests broke out in Georgia over the weekend as the government suspended the EU ascension process. This is enshrined in the Georgian constitution, so the move is extremely controversial, although there is also some confusion. The Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, has issued statements that the suspension rumors are false. Meanwhile, the outgoing President, Salome Zourabichvili, who is a strong supporter of Georgia\u0026rsquo;s EU membership, said she will remain in office amid calls that the recent election was fraudulent. [SOURCE - BBC live updates]\nKosovo is blaming Serbia for an explosion on Saturday that badly damaged a canal supplying drinking water and helping with power prod\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/12/02/decis-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-b3d6b07cf833b947/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"opposition-advances-in-syria-protests-in-georgia-and-romania-and-trudeau-reacts-to-trump-tariff-threats\"\u003eOpposition advances in Syria, protests in Georgia and Romania, and Trudeau reacts to Trump tariff threats\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere were several major events over the weekend worth keeping track of, but before we get to those, a quick seasonal health warning because this can be the most dangerous time of the year for a lot of organizations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWait. Didn\u0026rsquo;t Andy Williams tell us this was The Most Wonderful Time of the Year?\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"Stability ratings and headlines plus some weekend long reads Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.\nJust the ratings and headlines today as I digest Thursday’s feast. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom for the long reads.\nBlack Friday Sale Gift It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.\nThe problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it\u0026rsquo;s hard to know where to start.\nSo keep things simple: start with the things that might affect your organization specifically because you won\u0026rsquo;t tackle climate change by yourself.\nAnd if you aren\u0026rsquo;t sure what those threats might be, here\u0026rsquo;s something to help.\nI just rebuilt the scenario planner in CrisisDojo and put it outside of the paywall so you can use it to generate likely scenarios for your organization. Plus, it can help outline basic contingency plans and actions to put into place.\nSo ignore the noise: focus on your organization.\nJust go to app.crisisdojo.ai to try it out.\nNo login or credit card required.\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary A humanitarian crisis is unfolding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, exacerbated by violence against aid workers, which has made 2024 the deadliest year on record for them. Concurrently, devastating rain-induced landslides have claimed the lives of nine individuals, including seven children, highlighting the region\u0026rsquo;s vulnerability to both conflict and natural disasters. The World Food Programme has called for $16.9 billion in funding for 2025 to address alarming hunger levels, underscoring the urgent need for international intervention in this beleaguered nation. [SOURCE - APP].\nIn Algeria, the arrest of prominent writer Boualem Sansal on national security charges has raised alarms about the increasing censorship of dissenting voices and the government\u0026rsquo;s commitment to democratic values. This crackdown on free expression reflects a broader trend of tightening control over civil liberties in the country, raising concerns about the future of democracy in Algeria [[SOURCE - Al-Monitor]](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/11/algeria-holds-writer-boualem-sansal-national-security-charges-lawyer?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;u\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/29/decis-sitrep-africa-focus-cb78/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"stability-ratings-and-headlines-plus-some-weekend-long-reads\"\u003eStability ratings and headlines plus some weekend long reads\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eJust the ratings and headlines today as I digest Thursday’s feast. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom for the long reads.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"black-friday-sale-gift\"\u003eBlack Friday Sale Gift\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"Thanksgiving edition 🦃 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nWe’re celebrating Thanksgiving so it’s just the data and ratings today, no news.\nA quick ask\n*There’s a poll at the bottom of the email and it would be incredibly useful if you could take 30 seconds to let us know how we’re doing. Good, bad, ugly? Just let us know. Thank you *🙏\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$69.19\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.055 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$95,543\nAs at Nov 28, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar\nRegional News Summary Singapore\u0026rsquo;s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with a reported growth rate of 3.5% and a positive outlook for its financial markets. The government is actively working to diversify its economy, notably through initiatives to revive the fish farming sector and attract foreign investment, exemplified by Morgan Stanley\u0026rsquo;s establishment of a new Southeast Asia headquarters in the city-state [SOURCE - Investing]. Additionally, Singapore\u0026rsquo;s inflation rate has fallen to its lowest since March 2021, providing further optimism for economic stability [SOURCE - CNBC].\nHowever, the political landscape is shifting as former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong steps down as the chief of the People\u0026rsquo;s Action Party, handing over leadership to Lawrence Wong. This transition underscores the importance of orderly political handovers in maintaining stability in a rapidly changing world [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nIn contrast, tensions are escalating in Taiwan as China intensifies its military incursions into the Taiwan Strait, prompting Taiwan to bolster its military readiness [SOURCE - Times of India]. The United States is responding by drawing up contingency plans for a potential Taiwan emergency, reaffirming its commitment to regional security [[SOURCE - Economic Times]](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/us-drawing-up-contingency-plans-for-taiwan-emergency-kyodo/articleshow/115644752.cms?utm_source=news\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/28/decis-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus-b139/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"thanksgiving-edition-\"\u003eThanksgiving edition 🦃\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe’re celebrating Thanksgiving so it’s just the data and ratings today, no news.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eA quick ask\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e*There’s a poll at the bottom of the email and it would be incredibly useful if you could take 30 seconds to let us know how we’re doing. Good, bad, ugly? Just let us know. Thank you *🙏\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"commodity-and-rate-snapshot\"\u003eCommodity and Rate Snapshot\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$69.19\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"Ceasefire in Lebanon and tension in Pakistan Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n(Reminder: Thursday and Friday’s SITREPS will only contain the stability ratings as we are observing Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day .)\nIn Pakistan, supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan have been pushed out of central Islamabad by security forces, although they have not fully dispersed and thousands remain in the city. [SOURCE - BBC]\nIsrael and Hezbollah agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, pausing the year-old conflict in Lebanon. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$69.12\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.052*(Price of 1EUR in USD)*\n₿ Bitcoin\n$93,571\nAs at Nov 27, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEurope News Summary *Note - Apologies, but due to a technical error, the hyperlinks for the European news did not render correctly today. *\nSwitzerland\u0026rsquo;s National Bank has reaffirmed its commitment to combating inflation, emphasizing price stability as its primary goal amidst ongoing global economic pressures. This focus comes as the Swiss government prepares for a vote on changes to healthcare funding rules, aiming to adapt the system to the evolving needs of the healthcare sector. Additionally, Switzerland is set to trial electronic signature collection for referendums, a move designed to enhance democratic participation and streamline processes for citizens. In a separate initiative, local voters in Uri have approved plans for a hotel and marina complex, signaling a push towards boosting tourism and economic growth in the region. Meanwhile, Lucerne voters have backed the rapid expansion of wind energy projects, reflecting a growing commitment to renewable energy sources [SOURCE - Reuters][SOURCE - Le News][SOURCE - Swissinfo].\nHowever, Switzerland is also facing scrutiny regarding national security, as the University of Basel has implemented stricter measures for Chinese students amid counterespionage concerns. Furthermore, the Global Forum on Transparency has urged Switzerland to take action against corruption risks, highlighting the need for integrity in international relations. In a notable foreign policy decision, the Swiss government has barred exports to a Polish firm after reports indicated that Swiss-made ammunition was used in Ukraine, underscoring Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s commitment to humanitarian law [SOURCE - Japan Times][SOURCE - Sw\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/27/decis-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus-c060df474553dbe2/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"ceasefire-in-lebanon-and-tension-in-pakistan\"\u003eCeasefire in Lebanon and tension in Pakistan\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e(Reminder: Thursday and Friday’s SITREPS will only contain the stability ratings as we are observing Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day .)\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Pakistan, supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan have been pushed out of central Islamabad by security forces, although they have not fully dispersed and thousands remain in the city. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg7gklm0r04o\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIsrael and Hezbollah agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, pausing the year-old conflict in Lebanon. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/lebanon-cease-fire-starts-after-israel-and-hezbollah-reach-deal\"\u003eSOURCE - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus"},{"content":"More Trump tariffs and huge protests in Islamabad Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nThree headlines for you.\nCiting the flow of drugs and migrants across the US border, President-elect Trump threatened additional tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China. These appear to be in addition to the blanket 10% tariffs Trump plans to impose on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nIn Pakistan, protestors demanding the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have reached the central D Chowk square in Islamabad. The situation is tense and fluid, and what happens next is uncertain but Khan has asked his supporters to occupy the center of Islamabad until their demands are met. The BBC has live coverage here.\nThe Israeli cabinet is due to vote on a ceasefire proposal to end its war in Lebanon today. The motion is expected to pass but Beirut continues to come under heavy Israeli bombardment while the deliberations continue. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$69.61\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.051 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$92,960\nAs at Nov 26, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nAmericas News Summary The recent G20 summit in Brazil has spotlighted the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, prompting leaders to emphasize the need for international cooperation in addressing global challenges. This concern aligns with broader discussions on regional alliances and economic ties, particularly as Brazil strengthens its relations with Vietnam and Argentina, clinching a significant gas deal from Argentina\u0026rsquo;s Vaca Muerta reserve to bolster its energy production capabilities [SOURCE - Mercopress].\nAs Brazil increasingly relies on oil exports, the G20 summit also highlighted trade and investment potential, with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim identifying a projected RM6.8 billion in export opportunities to Brazil over the next five years [[SOURCE - Malay Mail]](https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2024/11/19/malaysia-eyes-rm68b-in-export-potential-over-five-years-after-pm-anwars-brazil-business-talks/157328?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=refer\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/26/decis-sitrep-americas-focus-84c7/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"more-trump-tariffs-and-huge-protests-in-islamabad\"\u003eMore Trump tariffs and huge protests in Islamabad\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree headlines for you.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCiting the flow of drugs and migrants across the US border, President-elect Trump threatened additional tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China. These appear to be in addition to the blanket 10% tariffs Trump plans to impose on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/trump-vows-to-hit-china-mexico-canada-with-tariffs-over-border\"\u003eSOURCE - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Pakistan, protestors demanding the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have reached the central D Chowk square in Islamabad. The situation is tense and fluid, and what happens next is uncertain but Khan has asked his supporters to occupy the center of Islamabad until their demands are met. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yr75pr07xt\"\u003eThe BBC has live coverage here\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Yemenis in Ukraine, election shock in Romania and Lebanon ceasefire rumors Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Monday.\nA quick scheduling note for Thanksgiving week. The Thursday and Friday editions of the SITREP will not include the headlines or market data. Country stability ratings and news summaries will be unchanged.\nWeekend Stories of Note President-elect Trump made several additional nominations to cabinet and senior advisor roles over the weekend. Politico has a handy cabinet tracker here to help keep track of nominees and their positions on key issues.\nThe COP 29 environmental summit ended with a pledge by richer nations to contribute $300bn annually towards climate solutions for poorer countries who bear the brunt of climate change. Although this sum is significantly more than the current amount of climate financing, it was largely condemned as too little, given the scale of the problem. [SOURCE - BBC]\nA spate of deaths among tourists in Laos is highlighting the danger of illicit alcohol containing methanol in several Asian nations. [SOURCE - BBC]\nThe FT is reporting that Yemenis are being recruited for jobs in Russia only to be forcibly recruited into the army to fight in Ukraine. [SOURCE - FT]\nHezbollah launched a significant barrage of rockets and drones into Israel Sunday night (local) in the midst of fierce fighting in Southern Lebanon. [SOURCE - al Jazeerza] This comes as there are rumors of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on many of the credible social media accounts. See Barak Ravid in Axios for more.\nLong-shot candidate Calin Georgescu, described as a pro-Russia far-right ultranationalist, handily led the first round of Romania’s Presidential elections. Georgescu is anti-EU and anti-NATO, meaning a victory in the run-off on December 8 would be a significant challenge to Brussels and NATO allies. [SOURCE - BBC]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$70.979\n🚢 Containers (FBX Index)\n$3,590\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.048 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$98,380\nAs at Nov 25, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nSneak Peek I’m excited about two g\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/25/decis-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news-1a6ac44ae1f79e8c/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"yemenis-in-ukraine-election-shock-in-romania-and-lebanon-ceasefire-rumors\"\u003eYemenis in Ukraine, election shock in Romania and Lebanon ceasefire rumors\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Monday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eA quick scheduling note for Thanksgiving week. The Thursday and Friday editions of the SITREP will not include the headlines or market data. Country stability ratings and news summaries will be unchanged.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"weekend-stories-of-note\"\u003eWeekend Stories of Note\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePresident-elect Trump made several additional nominations to cabinet and senior advisor roles over the weekend. Politico has a handy cabinet tracker \u003ca href=\"https://www.politico.com/interactives/2024/trump-cabinet-picks-2025-tracker/\"\u003ehere\u003c/a\u003e to help keep track of nominees and their positions on key issues.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":"Africa round up plus the ICC issues arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.\nTwo headlines of note.\nThe International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. The ICC warrants accuse Netanyahu and Gallant of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Deif is also accused of crimes against humanity in connection with his role in the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel. Deif is reported to have been killed in July but the ICC maintains that it cannot verify that. Similar warrants against Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar were dropped after their deaths. [SOURCE - Washington Post]\nOver 40 people were killed in an attack on civilian vehicles in northwest Pakistan, close to the Afghan border. Sectarian violence has taken place in the same region recently, but the exact motive for the attack is unclear. This does not appear to be linked to the recent attacks carried out by separatists from Balochistan. [SOURCE - BBC]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$70.10\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.042 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$98,602\nAs at Nov 22, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nNews Summary In the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the persistent threat posed by M23 rebels continues to destabilize the region, drawing international concern. The rebels remain heavily armed and prepared for combat, exacerbating the already precarious security situation in the area [SOURCE - Gateway Pundit].\nMeanwhile, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) convened a summit in Harare to address regional security issues, but the limited attendance highlighted a troubling lack of commitment from member states to resolve ongoing conflicts [SOURCE - Zimbabwe Mail]. This lack of engagement raises questions about the effectiveness\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/22/decis-sitrep-africa-focus-7194/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"africa-round-up-plus-the-icc-issues-arrest-warrants-for-israeli-and-hamas-leaders\"\u003eAfrica round up plus the ICC issues arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and Happy Friday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo headlines of note.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. The ICC warrants accuse Netanyahu and Gallant of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Deif is also accused of crimes against humanity in connection with his role in the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel. Deif is reported to have been killed in July but the ICC maintains that it cannot verify that. Similar warrants against Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar were dropped after their deaths. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/21/netanyahu-gallant-war-crimes-gaza/\"\u003eSOURCE - Washington Post\u003c/a\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"SITREP for November 21, 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nWe begin with some overnight headlines worthy of your attention, and don’t miss the great, in-depth piece from Bloomberg about the Crowdstrike outage at the end.\nThe US vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution for the War in Gaza, causing . [SOURCE - BBC] This came a day after Russia had been condemned for vetoing a similar resolution concerning the civil war in Sidan.\nMeanwhile, the UN has reported that no aid has reached the north of Gaza in 40 days due to the Israeli blockade and that the 65,000-75,000 Palestinians trapped there are ”facing diminishing conditions for survival” [SOURCE - BBC]\nPakistan announced an imminent military operation against separatists in Baluchistan. Groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have recently stepped up attacks. The Pakistani operation is supported by China, whose citizens were targeted in recent attacks, and mirrors an Iranian offensive taking place on its side of the border. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]\nThree mining executives from Australian firm Resolute were freed by Mali. They had been held for several weeks over tax irregularities and were freed after the firm paid a $160 million settlement. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] Note, many commentators have suggested that the tax issue was an excuse for Mali to retake control of the Resolute mines and return these to Malian control, possibly also using these as payment to Russia in return for Moscow’s support.\nA quick ask\n*There’s a poll at the bottom of the email and it would be incredibly useful if you could take 30 seconds to let us know how we’re doing. Good, bad, ugly? Just let us know. Thank you *🙏\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$69.96\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.051 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$98,204\nAs at Nov 21, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, the government has intensified its efforts to combat cybercrime by integrating it into cross-border crime cooperation with Malaysia, a move aimed at bolstering regional security against digital threats [[SOURCE - The Sun Malaysia]](https://thesun.my/malaysia-news/cybercrime-to-be-part-o\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/21/decis-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-focus/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"sitrep-for-november-21-2024\"\u003eSITREP for November 21, 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe begin with some overnight headlines worthy of your attention, and don’t miss the great, in-depth piece from Bloomberg about the Crowdstrike outage at the end.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe US vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution for the War in Gaza, causing . [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr4p9rg8zlo\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e] This came a day after Russia had been condemned for vetoing a similar resolution concerning the civil war in Sidan.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus"},{"content":"SITREP for Nov 20, 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nThree quick headlines.\nRussia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan’s civil war. [SOURCE - BBC] *Note, Sudan remains one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises but seems overshadowed by the wars in Ukraine and the Levant. Read more on the humanitirna situation in Sudan from ReliefWeb. *\nThe Tunisian opposition leader was badly injured in an acid attack and had been hospitalized. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] The exact motive remains unclear but Tunisia’s opposition has been slowly whittled away since Kais Saied’s unconvincing electoral victory in October.\nThe Danish Navy is reported to have detailed a Chinese vessel in connection with Monday’s severing of an undersea telecoms cable between Germany and Finland. [SOURCE - Defence24]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$69.78\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.055 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$93,322\nAs at Nov 20, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nEurope News Summary Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economy is on an upward trajectory, bolstered by a significant rise in exports that is contributing to GDP growth. This positive economic climate is further complemented by the anticipation of wage increases in 2025, a development likely influenced by the country\u0026rsquo;s effective management of inflation [SOURCE - Le News].\nIn France, heightened security measures have been implemented ahead of a football match against Israel, following violent clashes between fans in Amsterdam. The French government has deployed a substantial police presence, including surveillance drones, to ensure safety during the event, which is expected to draw a large crowd despite the risk of protests [SOURCE - Forbes]. Thi\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/20/decis-sitrep-europe-and-mena-focus/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"sitrep-for-nov-20-2024\"\u003eSITREP for Nov 20, 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThree quick headlines.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan’s civil war. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c33elmnzj0po\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e] *Note, Sudan remains one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises but seems overshadowed by the wars in Ukraine and the Levant. \u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/sudan\"\u003e\u003cem\u003eRead more on the humanitirna situation in Sudan\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e from ReliefWeb. *\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Tunisian opposition leader was badly injured in an acid attack and had been hospitalized. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-20/tunisia-opposition-leader-hospitalized-after-acid-attack-at-home\"\u003eSOURCE - Bloomberg\u003c/a\u003e] The exact motive remains unclear but Tunisia’s opposition has been slowly whittled away since Kais Saied’s unconvincing electoral victory in October.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Europe and Mena Focus"},{"content":"SITREP for Nov 19 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nTwo quick headlines worth noting.\nAn undersea cable between Germany and Finland was severed on Monday. The German Defence Minister noted that \u0026ldquo;nobody believes that these cables were cut accidentally\u0026rdquo;. [SOURCE - BBC] Note - Russia is the likely culprit here, and this fits with Moscow’s larger ‘hybrid war’ strategy they are pursuing across Europe.* See the **Washington Post *for more.\nUkraine is reported to have used the long-range ATACMS missiles to hit targets in Russia for the first time since the US approved their use over the weekend. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$68.72\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.056 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$91,773.88\nAs at Nov 19, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAmericas Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary Brazil is grappling with economic instability as state-owned companies report their highest deficit in over two decades, raising alarms about the government\u0026rsquo;s financial health and investor confidence. This situation is compounded by the exclusion of the OECD from the upcoming G20 summit, which has sparked concerns regarding Brazil\u0026rsquo;s commitment to global economic cooperation and its increasing isolationism. Meanwhile, BTG Pactual, a leading Brazilian bank, reported a 15% increase in quarterly adjusted net income, providing a glimmer of hope for the financial sector amidst broader economic challenges [SOURCE - RIO TIMES ONLINE].\nTrade tensions are also affecting Brazil, as the ongoing trade war between the United States and China has led to a decline in exports and rising trade deficits for several Latin American countries, including Brazil [SOURCE - THE HINDU].\nIn Mexico, the economy is showing resilience, particularly in the auto sector, which has achieved a significant trade surplus with the U.S. However, this success is threatened by potential tariffs from the Trump administration, which could ignite a trade war. To mitigate these risks, Canada has proposed a trade deal that excludes Mex\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/19/decis-sitrep-americas-focus/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"sitrep-for-nov-19-2024\"\u003eSITREP for Nov 19 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo quick headlines worth noting.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn undersea cable between Germany and Finland was severed on Monday. The German Defence Minister noted that \u0026ldquo;nobody believes that these cables were cut accidentally\u0026rdquo;. [\u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dl4vxw501o\"\u003eSOURCE - BBC\u003c/a\u003e] \u003cem\u003eNote - Russia is the likely culprit here, and this fits with Moscow’s larger ‘hybrid war’ strategy they are pursuing across Europe.\u003c/em\u003e* See the *\u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/10/russia-sabotage-europe-ukraine/\"\u003e*Washington Post *\u003c/a\u003e\u003cem\u003efor more.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Focus"},{"content":"Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nA quick editorial note* - The minute I hit ‘send’ on Friday, I realized that I had the SITREP schedule backward: it’s better to get the complete ratings on a Monday than the country comparisons as part of the regional. I also want to cover any big events that took place over the weekend on a Monday so the schedule going forward will be as follows.*\nMonday - All ratings and weekend news\nTuesday - Americas\nWednesday - Europe \u0026amp; MENA\nThursday - Asia \u0026amp; Oceania\nFriday - Africa\nDeep Dives* will appear as necessary, not on a fixed schedule.*\nOk, on to the weekend news.\nWeekend Stories of Note President Biden approved Ukraine’s use of US long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia. [SOURCE - Reuters]\nNorth Korea may allocate 100,000 troops to support Russia[‘s war against Ukraine, in addition to the initial deployment of 10,000 [SOURCE - Bloomberg] (Note, the growing closeness between Russia and North Korea is reducing China’s hold on Pyongyang is reported to be causing some concern in Beijing.)\nSuper typhoon Man-Yi made landfall in the Philippines twice, hitting the main island of Luzon early Sunday UTC. This is the sixth typhoon in a month, and 160 people have already been killed in the storms. [SOURCE - BBC].\nPresident Biden met with Chinese President Xi at the APEC summit in Peru. Xi also said a stable relationship between China and the United States was \u0026ldquo;critical to both parties and the world\u0026rdquo; but warned \u0026ldquo;a new Cold War should not be fought and cannot be won. Containing China is unwise, unacceptable and bound to fail\u0026rdquo;. [SOURCE - BBC]\n225 opposition politicians and protestors were released in Venezuela. They had been detained along with hundreds of others after July’s stolen election. [SOURCE - Reuters]\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$67.39\n🚢 Containers (FBX Index)\n$3,612\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.053 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$90,671.63\nAs at Nov 18, 06:30ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nGlobal Stability Ratings Here are the complete global stability rankings for all countries and territories covered by Decis Intelligence.\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: da\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/18/decis-sitrep-global-ratings-weekend-news/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eA quick editorial note\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e* - The minute I hit ‘send’ on Friday, I realized that I had the SITREP schedule backward: it’s better to get the complete ratings on a Monday than the country comparisons as part of the regional. I also want to cover any big events that took place over the weekend on a Monday so the schedule going forward will be as follows.*\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news"},{"content":" Friday Stability Roundup and a Deep Dive[ What Does Trump 2.0 Mean Internationally? Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nMonday through Thursday, we cover each region with the stability situation and regional news but Fridays are when we take a deeper dive into an issue and give you a rundown of the baseline stability ratings for each country.\nToday\u0026rsquo;s deep dive is a look at what the second Trump term means on a geopolitical basis.\nTwo quick pieces of news worth mentioning first.\nOn Thursday, the GOP officially retained control of the House, meaning Republicans will hold the Presidency, Senate, and House and have a right-leaning Supreme Court [SOURCE - Politico].\nA Pentagon official warned that the Houthis have access to increasingly sophisticated weaponry via Iran [SOURCE - Axios]. Comment - I\u0026rsquo;ve written before that there is no incentive for the Houthis to stop interdicting Res Sea shipping traffic but access to more sophisticated missiles and their increasing drone capability is making a previously domestic group a much more influential regional actor.\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$68.42\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.057 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$89,734.19\nAs at Nov 15, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nPresident Trump 2.0 Comes into Focus: So What? In 2016, Peter Thiel complained that the press took Trump \u0026rsquo;literally but not seriously, whereas his [Trump\u0026rsquo;s] voters took him seriously but not literally\u0026rsquo;. [CNBC] Fast forward to 2024, and better advice seems to be to take Trump both seriously and literally: what nominee Trump said on the campaign trail seems to be what President-elect Trump is putting into action. Picking Stephen Millar as Deputy Chief of Staff and Tom Homan as Border czar lines up 100% with the hard line he promised to take on immigration.\nSo, this analysis takes President-elect Trump seriously and literally, reviewing what he\u0026rsquo;s said he will do in his second term.\nThe silver lining here is that this reduces the possibility of surprises and allows some time to prepare for what a second Trump term might mean.\nSo, what can we expect at the geopolitical level? Here are five scenarios to prepare for.\nThe US will impose tariffs on a wide range of imports Trump has floated a 60% tariff on goods from China and 10% on all other imports. This complicates supply lines and increases the cost of goods for US consumers and manufacturers.\nSo what? Trump may be able to settle more favorable terms for US trade on the basis of these tariffs but, to begin with, the pain is likely to be felt by the US consumer and seen in rising US inflation. Retaliatory tariffs are also a possibility, complicating things for US exporters.\nUkraine will be forced to trade land for peace T\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/15/friday-stability-roundup-and-a-deep-dive/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eFriday Stability Roundup and a Deep Dive[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"what-does-trump-20-mean-internationally\"\u003eWhat Does Trump 2.0 Mean Internationally?\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMonday through Thursday, we cover each region with the stability situation and regional news but Fridays are when we take a deeper dive into an issue and give you a rundown of the baseline stability ratings for each country.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eToday\u0026rsquo;s deep dive is a look at what the second Trump term means on a geopolitical basis.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Friday Stability Roundup and a Deep Dive"},{"content":"SITREP for Nov 14 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nIntro\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$68.76\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.051 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$91,208.50\nAs at Nov 14, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇨🇻 Cape Verde, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇱🇸 Lesotho, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇳🇦 Namibia, 🇸🇳 Senegal, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe, 🇬🇲 The Gambia\nRegional News Summary Volatility continues to grip the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), particularly in the eastern regions where the M23 rebel group is advancing, challenging government forces and exacerbating instability. This unrest complicates the government\u0026rsquo;s ability to maintain control and provide essential services to the population [SOURCE - Understanding War].\nIn addition to the security crisis, the DRC faces a public health challenge with the mpox virus (formerly known as monkeypox). Although the spread has slowed, new mutations raise concerns about potential outbreaks. Vaccination efforts are underway, with doses allocated for nine African countries, including the DRC, as part of a global response to the outbreak [SOURCE - CBC].\nMeanwhile, the energy landscape in Africa is shifting. Russia has emerged as a significant supplier of liquefied natural gas to Spain, raising questions about Algeria\u0026rsquo;s energy export market, which is already under pressure from declining oil prices [SOURCE - TASS]. In Mali, three executives, including CEO Terry Holohan, from mining company Resolute are being held by the government over alleged unpaid taxes. [SOURCE - Boomberg] Independent firms are revitalizing Africa\u0026rsquo;s mature oil fields, which could bolster Algeria\u0026rsquo;s oil and gas sector amid these challenges [SOURCE - RIO TIMES]. However, the global energy market remains uncertain, influenced by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and fluctuating demand [[SOURCE - THE BLAZE]](https://www.theblaze.com/news/eu-signals-desperation-to-avoid-trade-war-with-trump-desire-to-buy-american-gas\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/14/decis-sitrep-africa-focus/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"sitrep-for-nov-14-2024\"\u003eSITREP for Nov 14 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIntro\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"commodity-and-rate-snapshot\"\u003eCommodity and Rate Snapshot\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$68.76\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e💵 **USD:EUR **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$1.051 \u003cem\u003e(Price of 1EUR in USD)\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e₿ \u003cstrong\u003eBitcoin\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$91,208.50\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAs at Nov 14, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"africa-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eAfrica Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Africa Focus"},{"content":"SITREP for Nov 13 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nSomething that’s not appearing in the news very much — and therefore slipping by the models — are a series of violent attacks in China including a mass stabbing and a motorist killing 35 people in a deliberate attack. Chinese authorities are quick to clamp down on any event that suggests a lack of control, and news of these events is suppressed, as reported by the BBC.\nThese events are being described by perpetrators as \u0026ldquo;taking revenge on society\u0026rdquo; and are taking place relatively frequently. This might not indicate some greater unrest in China, but at an individual traveler level, it means that a higher degree of caution is needed than the official statistics around crime and violence suggests.\n(On a technical note - I’m working on ways to get more non-traditional news sources into the model to help provide a richer picture of events.)\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$68.78\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.061 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$87,915.06\nAs at Nov 13, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nAsia Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇫 Afghanistan, 🇦🇲 Armenia, 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, 🇧🇭 Bahrain, 🇧🇩 Bangladesh, 🇰🇭 Cambodia, 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇱 East Timor, 🇬🇪 Georgia, 🇮🇩 Indonesia, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan, 🇱🇦 Laos, 🇲🇳 Mongolia, 🇲🇲 Myanmar, 🇳🇵 Nepal, 🇰🇵 North Korea, 🇵🇰 Pakistan, 🇵🇭 Philippines, 🇶🇦 Qatar, 🇸🇬 Singapore, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka, 🇹🇼 Taiwan, 🇹🇯 Tajikistan, 🇹🇭 Thailand, 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan\nMore Stable No countries were more stable over this period\nUnchanged 🇧🇹 Bhutan, 🇧🇳 Brunei, 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan, 🇰🇼 Kuwait, 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇲🇻 Maldives, 🇴🇲 Oman, 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates, 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan, 🇻🇳 Vietnam\nRegional News Summary In Singapore, the stock market is showing resilience amid global economic uncertainties, buoyed by strong fundamentals and a robust manufacturing sector. Analysts predict further gains, although external factors like fluctuating oil prices could pose risks. The recent U.S. presidential election results may also influence Singapore\u0026rsquo;s trade relations, with potential benefits from a more aggressive U.S. trade policy under a second Trump administration, as noted by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong\u0026rsquo;s readiness to engage with the new administration [SOURCE - Channel News Asia].\nMeanwhile, Singapore is emerging as a key player in the global semiconductor industry, with Tata Group expressing interest in collaboration, further solidifying its position as a hub for foreign investment [SOURCE - The Hindu].\nIn China, the economic landscape is adjusting to the implications of the U.S. election, with the yuan losing value and stock prices fluctuating. The Chinese government is responding by lowering fuel prices amid global oil\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/13/decis-sitrep-asia-and-oceania-roundup/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"sitrep-for-nov-13-2024\"\u003eSITREP for Nov 13 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSomething that’s not appearing in the news very much — and therefore slipping by the models — are a series of violent attacks in China including a mass stabbing and a \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpdv649vx7lo\"\u003emotorist killing 35 people in a deliberate attack\u003c/a\u003e. Chinese authorities are quick to clamp down on any event that suggests a lack of control, and news of these events is suppressed, \u003ca href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje0z2xppdlo\"\u003eas reported by the BBC\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Roundup"},{"content":"Decis SITREP for 12 November 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning. Here’s today’s SITREP covering Europe, The Middle East and North Africa.\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$68.52\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$ 1.062*\n₿ Bitcoin\n$87,015.19\n*Price of 1EUR in USD. Values updated ~0600ET Nov 12. Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\nMore Stable 🇮🇸 Iceland\nUnchanged 🇦🇩 Andorra, 🇦🇹 Austria, 🇭🇷 Croatia, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇫🇮 Finland, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein, 🇱🇹 Lithuania, 🇱🇺 Luxembourg, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇨 Monaco, 🇳🇴 Norway, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇸🇲 San Marino, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom\nRegional News Summary: Europe Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s economy continues to thrive, with strong growth reported in the third quarter. Redcare Pharmacy has announced impressive sales growth, alongside Burckhardt Compression, which has also seen increased profitability [SOURCE - Business Insider Markets]. However, Switzerland\u0026rsquo;s relations with the European Union remain strained, particularly concerning the contentious Swiss cohesion contribution, which continues to be a sticking point in ongoing negotiations between Swiss officials and EU leaders [SOURCE - Swissinfo].\nIn the realm of immigration policy, the Swiss Federal Council has announced plans to resume deportations of Afghan and Ukrainian \u0026lsquo;criminal migrants\u0026rsquo;, a move that has sparked debate within the country [SOURCE - Khaama News].\nMeanwhile, the political landscape in the UK is shifting as the ultra-rich feel the impact of Labour\u0026rsquo;s tax-raising budget, reflecting a broader trend of increased tax burdens globally [SOURCE - CNBC].\nThe conflict in Ukraine remains a focal point of concern, with reports indicating the introduction of North Korean troops into the fray, raising alarms about the potential escalation of the war [SOURCE - The National Interest]. The Biden administration is reportedly expediting aid to Ukraine ahead of the anticipated Trump inauguration, with Germany pledging €4 billion in support despite its own economic challenges [[SOURCE - The Zimbabwe Mail]](https://w\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/12/decis-sitrep-europe-mena-roundup/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"decis-sitrep-for-12-november-2024\"\u003eDecis SITREP for 12 November 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. Here’s today’s SITREP covering Europe, The Middle East and North Africa.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"commodity-and-rate-snapshot\"\u003eCommodity and Rate Snapshot\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$68.52\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e💵 **USD:EUR **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$ 1.062*\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e₿ \u003cstrong\u003eBitcoin\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$87,015.19\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e*\u003cem\u003ePrice of 1EUR in USD. Values updated ~0600ET Nov 12. Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"europe-stability-ratings-and-news-summary\"\u003eEurope Stability Ratings and News Summary\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"more-unstable\"\u003eMore Unstable\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Roundup"},{"content":"Decis SITREP for Nov 11, 2011 Andrew Sheves Good morning and welcome back to the Decis Daily SITREPS. (What are these?)\nPlease thank a Veteran for their service today.\nCommodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\n$69.02\n🚢 Containers (FBX Index)\n$3,564.2\n💵 **USD:EUR **\n$1.066 (Price of 1EUR in USD)\n₿ Bitcoin\n$82,102.88\nAs at Nov 11, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\nFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\nRegional Stability Ratings: Americas More Unstable 🇦🇷 Argentina, 🇧🇧 Barbados, 🇧🇿 Belize, 🇧🇴 Bolivia, 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇨🇦 Canada, 🇨🇴 Colombia, 🇨🇺 Cuba, 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic, 🇪🇨 Ecuador, 🇸🇻 El Salvador, 🇬🇩 Grenada, 🇬🇹 Guatemala, 🇬🇾 Guyana, 🇭🇳 Honduras, 🇯🇲 Jamaica, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇳🇮 Nicaragua, 🇵🇦 Panama, 🇵🇪 Peru, 🇸🇷 Suriname, 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago, 🇺🇸 United States Of America, 🇻🇪 Venezuela\nMore Stable None\nUnchanged 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda, 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇨🇷 Costa Rica, 🇩🇲 Dominica, 🇭🇹 Haiti, 🇵🇾 Paraguay, 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis, 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia, 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 🇧🇸 The Bahamas, 🇺🇾 Uruguay\nRegional News Summary: Americas This summary is generated by AI using news headlines\nIn the USA, former President Trump won the US Presidential election and Republicans also regained control of the Senate. Results from the House are incomplete but Republicans appear to have a good chance of retaining control. (Election updates via Axios). Read more on Trump’s ‘day one’ plans in Bloomberg\nIn Haiti, the transition council dismissed President Garry Conille and replaced him with businessman Alix Didier Fils-Aimé. [SOURCE - The AP]\nBrazil\u0026rsquo;s economic landscape is currently fraught with challenges as President Lula faces mounting pressure to navigate fiscal difficulties exacerbated by global tensions. The recent US election, which saw Donald Trump declare victory, has raised concerns about potential trade wars that could destabilize the Brazilian market. Investors are closely monitoring the government\u0026rsquo;s fiscal measures, while inflation, although claimed by the Brazilian Central Bank to be under control, remains a significant concern for many analysts. In response to these uncertainties, Brazilian firms are promoting their US-based manufacturing capabilities to mitigate reliance on China and prepare for possible tariffs that could affect over 45% of American imports from Brazil [SOURCE - Rio Times Online].\nIn a bid to bolster investor confidence, Brazil has also made strides in environmental commitments. Ahead of the COP29 summit, President Lula announced new pledges to combat deforestation, highlighting a 31% decrease in Amazon deforestation over the past year. This initiative reflects Brazil\u0026rsquo;s dedication to addressing climate change and restoring damaged ecosystems [[SOURCE -\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/11/decis-sitrep-americas-roundup/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"decis-sitrep-for-nov-11-2011\"\u003eDecis SITREP for Nov 11, 2011\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning and welcome back to the Decis Daily SITREPS. (\u003ca href=\"/2024/11/10/reviving-the-decis-sitrep/?utm_source=news.decis.ai\u0026amp;utm_medium=newsletter\u0026amp;utm_campaign=reviving-the-decis-sitrep\"\u003eWhat are these\u003c/a\u003e?)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePlease thank a Veteran for their service today.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"commodity-and-rate-snapshot\"\u003eCommodity and Rate Snapshot\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$69.02\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🚢 \u003cstrong\u003eContainers (FBX Index)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$3,564.2\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e💵 **USD:EUR **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$1.066 \u003cem\u003e(Price of 1EUR in USD)\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e₿ \u003cstrong\u003eBitcoin\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e$82,102.88\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAs at Nov 11, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinancial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decis SITREP: Americas Roundup"},{"content":"Daily briefings are coming your way again Andrew Sheves Happy Sunday\nI wanted to give you a heads-up that, starting tomorrow, the Decis SITREP will be rolling into your inbox again.\nUnlike previous versions, I’m going back to basics and keeping things simple, reminding myself that we’re not a forecasting shop, meme factory, or provider of cocktail-party intelligence.\nThere are plenty of those folks out there already.\nBut, what we’re short on is data and intelligence. And data-driven intelligence is what we need to make decisions\nThat’s what we’ve built at Decis: really powerful data-driven geopolitical assessment engine and provider of focused intelligence.\nWe want to make sure you know what’s going on, can quickly put that into context, and then determine what that means for you.\nThat starts with getting you a simple snapshot of a country’s stability and the recent events that are influencing the situation.\nMaybe something a little like this….\nThe Daily SITREPs will cover one region each day as well as flagging anything really important globally that you should be tracking. That way, you’ll be able to quickly see where something relevant to you has changed, why it’s changed, and then start working out what to do about it.\nThis is just a tiny sliver of what the Decis assessment engine can do, but by sharing the SITREPs, I’m hoping we’re you’re just a little bit better prepared for what’s happening and can respond or plan accordingly.\n(And if you are interested in our more in-depth products, drop me a line.)\nSee you tomorrow and apologies that I’ve been absent for so long.\nCarpe Tomorrow™️\nDecis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/11/10/reviving-the-decis-sitrep/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"daily-briefings-are-coming-your-way-again\"\u003eDaily briefings are coming your way again\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nHappy Sunday\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI wanted to give you a heads-up that, starting tomorrow, the Decis SITREP will be rolling into your inbox again.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnlike previous versions, I’m going back to basics and keeping things simple, reminding myself that we’re not a forecasting shop, meme factory, or provider of cocktail-party intelligence.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are plenty of those folks out there already.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut, what we’re short on is data and intelligence. And data-driven intelligence is what we need to make decisions\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Reviving the Decis SITREP"},{"content":" How to Use AI as a Security Risk Manager[ An AI AI White Paper Andrew Sheves (I’ll keep this short as I don’t want to suddenly spam your inbox after weeks of silence.)\nI’ve been collaborating with Doug Gray from HumanRisks on an AI white paper these last few months, and I’m pleased to announce that it’s now published.\nWe took a much deeper dive into the topic than in any of our previous work, conducting a thorough review of how AI can assist security risk managers. We based this on the most recent academic studies of how knowledge workers make best use of these tools and aligned these AI benefits with identified gaps and challenges in Security Risk Management.\n(And by deep-dive, I mean deep: we get right down to the task level, showing how specific processes in the enterprise security risk management (ESRM) cycle can be enhanced by AI.)\nBut even if you don’t need to get to that level of detail, it’s giving you the background and a framework to think about how you can implement AI in your own organization.\nWe hope that this is something that security risk managers can pick up and put to use right away. But to be honest, there’s a lot for risk managers in general as the top-level framework is quite flexible.\nThe executive summary is below plus a link to the shared download page.\nThis was quite an endeavor and I’m hugely grateful to Doug for not only being a great thought partner and co-author but for tackling the meatiest parts of the paper and steering it to publication. Thank you.\nI hope you enjoy the paper and find something of value here.\nAll my best\nSubscribe to keep reading This content is free, but you must be subscribed to Decis SITREPS to continue reading.\nAlready a subscriber?Sign in.Not now Decis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/09/24/how-to-use-ai-as-a-security-risk-manager/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHow to Use AI as a Security Risk Manager[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"an-ai-ai-white-paper\"\u003eAn AI AI White Paper\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\n(I’ll keep this short as I don’t want to suddenly spam your inbox after weeks of silence.)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’ve been collaborating with Doug Gray from \u003ca href=\"https://humanrisks.com/\"\u003eHumanRisks\u003c/a\u003e on an AI white paper these last few months, and I’m pleased to announce that it’s now published.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe took a much deeper dive into the topic than in any of our previous work, conducting a thorough review of how AI can assist security risk managers. We based this on the most recent academic studies of how knowledge workers make best use of these tools and aligned these AI benefits with identified gaps and challenges in Security Risk Management.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How to Use AI as a Security Risk Manager"},{"content":" UK Riots, Ukrainian Troops Strike Deep into Russia and a New Leader in Bangladesh[ Decis SITREP for August 12 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nThis week, we’re looking at the recent violent anti-immigration protests by far-right mobs in the UK alongside Ukraine’s surprise offensive deep into Russian territory. Plus, things have calmed dramatically in Bangladesh as the new Prime Minster settles in.\n(By the way, this week’s newsletter is a bit of an experiment as I am letting the AIs do the majority of the writing for the updates. Let me know what you think.)\nBut first, the stability matrix.\nReminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer\nIs somewhere important to you missing? Hit ‘reply’ and we’ll get them added to the matrix.\nEvents of interest that we’re monitoring.\n🇬🇧 United Kingdom Currently, the UK is rated as Highly Stable but More Turbulent than normal\nRecent Riots and Protests in the UK Assessment via Perplexity AI\nBackground and Causes\nSince July 30, 2024, the United Kingdom has experienced a series of riots and protests primarily driven by far-right groups and anti-immigration sentiments. These events were triggered by a mass stabbing in Southport on July 29, where three children were killed. Social media misinformation falsely accused the attacker of being a Muslim and an asylum seeker, which fueled the unrest[1][4].\nNature and Spread of the Riots\nThe riots began in Southport and quickly spread to various locations across England and Northern Ireland. The disturbances have been characterized by racist attacks, arson, and looting, marking the most significant civil disorder in the UK since the 2011 England riots. In Hull, rioters attacked police, set vehicles on fire, and looted shops, resulting in injuries to 11 police officers and the arrest of 25 individuals[1].\nIn Northern Ireland, protests and violence erupted in Belfast, where anti-immigration and anti-racism demonstrators clashed. Rioters attacked immigrant-owned businesses, and violence continued in areas like Sandy Row, where immigrant-owned establishments were set ablaze[1].\nGovernment and Law Enforcement Response\nThe UK government and law enforcement agencies have been on high alert, with thousands of police officers deployed to manage the situation. As of the latest reports, 741 individuals have been arrested, with 302 charged in connection with the riots[1][5].\nCounter-Protests and Public Reaction\nIn response to the far-right riots, thousands of anti-racism protesters have mobilized across the UK. On August 7, large gatherings were held to counter planned far-right rallies and to express solidarity with refugees and ethnic minority communities. These demonstrators formed protective barriers around locations such as immigration centers, which were potential targets for far-right groups[2][5].\nCurrent Situation and Outlook\nAs of August 10, 2024, the intensity of the riots appears to have peaked, but tensions remain high. The situation has put the UK government under significant pressure, and there is concern that further unrest could occur[3]. The ongoing disinformation and societal divisio\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/08/12/uk-riots-ukrainian-troops-strike-deep-russia-new-leader-bangladesh/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eUK Riots, Ukrainian Troops Strike Deep into Russia and a New Leader in Bangladesh[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"decis-sitrep-for-august-12-2024\"\u003eDecis SITREP for August 12 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis week, we’re looking at the recent violent anti-immigration protests by far-right mobs in the UK alongside Ukraine’s surprise offensive deep into Russian territory. Plus, things have calmed dramatically in Bangladesh as the new Prime Minster settles in.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(By the way, this week’s newsletter is a bit of an experiment as I am letting the AIs do the majority of the writing for the updates. Let me know what you think.)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"UK Riots, Ukrainian Troops Strike Deep into Russia and a New Leader in Bangladesh"},{"content":" Too Quiet in the Levant, Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s 10-days of Rage and What\u0026rsquo;s Hungary Up To?[ Plus Changes in Bangladesh. Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nA tense weekend in the Levant has given way to an anxious week as everyone waits to see how Iran and Hezbollah respond to recent attacks by Israel. Meanwhile, Hungary’s Victor Orban continues to be Europe’s most troublesome family member, while youths in Nigeria are staging ‘ten days of rage’ to protest economic conditions.\nFLASH - Just as we were publishing, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced her resignation and fled the country as protestors stormed the palace after a violent weekend where 90 protesters were killed. Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman has taken temporary control and is meeting with protest leaders and other stakeholders.\n[Follow the BBC for live updates](http://Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman).\nBut first, the stability matrix.\nReminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer\nIs somewhere important to you missing? Hit ‘reply’ and we’ll get them added to the matrix.\nThere’s still time to sign up for tomorrow’s discussion of how to use AI to generate better insights from data. Mads Pærregaard from Human Risks and I are chatting at 0800ET, sharing what we’ve learned about using AI in our work and how you can do the same.\nRegister here\nEvents of interest that we’re monitoring.\n🌡️ The Levant As of Monday morning ET, Iran had not responded to Israel’s assassination of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last week. Nor had Hezbollah retaliated to the simultaneous assassination of Fuad Shukr in Beirut, which Israel claimed was in response to the Hezbollah strike on the Golan Heights on July 27.\nIn response to these rising tensions, the US has announced additional deployments to the region, including maritime and air defense assets, to provide additional protection to Israel in the event of retaliation. Meanwhile, the US and other countries are advising their citizens to avoid travel to the region and to consider leaving if possible, while many airlines have canceled flights into Beirut and Tel Aviv.\nThe delays in retaliation could be read as a positive sign that a careful, deliberate response in the works, similar to the [heavily choreographed, easily defeated Iranian attack in April](https://www.reuters.c\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/08/05/quiet-levant-nigerias-10days-rage-whats-hungary/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eToo Quiet in the Levant, Nigeria\u0026rsquo;s 10-days of Rage and What\u0026rsquo;s Hungary Up To?[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"plus-changes-in-bangladesh\"\u003ePlus Changes in Bangladesh.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA tense weekend in the Levant has given way to an anxious week as everyone waits to see how Iran and Hezbollah respond to recent attacks by Israel. Meanwhile, Hungary’s Victor Orban continues to be Europe’s most troublesome family member, while youths in Nigeria are staging ‘ten days of rage’ to protest economic conditions.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Too Quiet in the Levant, Nigeria's 10-days of Rage and What's Hungary Up To?"},{"content":" 🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK[ 🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK 🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK Internal and External Pressures Are Pulling Israel Towards Instability Andrew Sheves Good morning\nThe increasing pressure on Israel has made me question the ongoing rating of STABLE for several months now, but events over the last week — both internal and external — have led me to the conclusion that the country’s stability rating should be downgraded to WEAK.\n(The Decis Intelligence summary is here)\nSpecific events of concern were.\nInternal The attack on the Sde Teiman detainee facility by a right-wing mob enraged at the detention of soldiers accused of prisoner abuse and torture.\nThis speaks volumes to the enormous internal divisions within Israel that preceded October 7th but are now significantly exacerbated. The fact that the mob attacking the IDF was led by a Knesset member and supported by other far-right politicians, including cabinet members, shows just how broad this division is.\nExternal The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran on Wednesday.\nFirst, this ends any idea that there will be a negotiated settlement in Gaza as Haniyeh was seen as the only one who could potentially bring Yahya Sinwar and the military arm of Hamas into a deal.\nSecond. conducting the attack in Tehran provokes Iran and will force their new President, Masoud Pezeshkian, whose swearing-in Haniyeh was attending, to respond forcibly.\nMoreover, rather than these events bringing things to a head, there is much more potential for destabilization.\n(Note, we are not glossing over the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr early on Wednesday in Beirut. As a retaliation for Saturday’s strike on the Golan Heights by Hezbollah, this was as targeted and proportional a response as could be expected from Israel. So, by itself, this is not seen as a potential source of escalation although Hezbollah may become involved in whatever response Iran plans to the Haniyeh attack.)\nMore Instability Likely There are too many unknowns to provide a detailed assessment of what will happen next, but the broad conclusion is that the Israeli War Cabinet is now not interested in any kind of negotiated settlement. Moreover, there is a willingness to take action that could significantly escalate the situation and little concern about provoking Iran into direct confrontation.\nThis causes several additional problems for Israel.\nFirst, this stance makes ‘winning’ against Hamas much more difficult as 1) they are backed into a corner and 2) it requires Israel to wipe out the organization completely: an almost impossible task with an ideological movement.\nSecond, the hostages have been, to all intents and purposes, abandoned. This will create a long-t\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/07/31/israel-downgraded-weak/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"-israel-downgraded-to-weak\"\u003e🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"internal-and-external-pressures-are-pulling-israel-towards-instability\"\u003eInternal and External Pressures Are Pulling Israel Towards Instability\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe increasing pressure on Israel has made me question the ongoing rating of STABLE for several months now, but events over the last week — both internal and external — have led me to the conclusion that the country’s stability rating should be downgraded to WEAK.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Israel: Downgraded to WEAK"},{"content":" Israel / Hezbollah Heats Up, Maduro Declares Victory and Bangladesh Protest Effects[ Decis Monday Briefing \u0026amp; Weekly Country Stability Matrix - July 29, 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nA Hezbollah attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday significantly ratcheted up tension on Israel’s northern border. Israel has yet to respond (as of Mondat am ET), but careful calibration is needed to avoid this boiling over into all-out conflict, which would be disastrous for Israel.\nMeanwhile, despite the very strong exit polls for the González / Machado opposition, President Nicolas Maduro claimed an overwhelming majority in Venezuela’s election early Monday morning.\nFinally, the effects of the crackdown on protests in Bangladesh are being felt in global supply chains and in the country’s foreign income.\nBut first, the stability matrix.\nReminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer\nIs somewhere important to you missing? Hit ‘reply’ and we’ll get them added to the matrix. (Bulgaria is coming, Bill, promise…)\n🗓️ Mark your calendar…\n**Curious about how to use AI to extract greater insight from your data? **\n](https://video.humanrisks.com/intelligence-vs-knowledge-driving/join) I’ll be joining my friend Mads from Human Risks next Monday to discuss how we are using AI to extract value from data and turn information into actionable intelligence. (You don’t think I do all the country stability ratings by hand, do you?)\nThe session is targeted at security risk managers but anyone who is curious how to use AI in this way will benefit from this session.\nLearn more and sign up here\nEvents of interest that we’re monitoring. 🇻🇪 Venezuela Venezuela is currently rated as critically unstable and more turbulent\nVenezuala’s elections on Sunday took place peacefully but with widespread opposition complaints of interference and intimidation. Opposition polling early Sunday night suggested a split of 65% / 31% in favor of González, but President Maduro claimed victory early Monday morning with a 51% / 44% split in his favor.\nVia @visegrad24 on [X.com](htt\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/07/29/israel-hezbollah-heats-maduro-declares-victory-bangladesh-protest-effects/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eIsrael / Hezbollah Heats Up, Maduro Declares Victory and Bangladesh Protest Effects[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"decis-monday-briefing--weekly-country-stability-matrix---july-29-2024\"\u003eDecis Monday Briefing \u0026amp; Weekly Country Stability Matrix - July 29, 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA Hezbollah attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday significantly ratcheted up tension on Israel’s northern border. Israel has yet to respond (as of Mondat am ET), but careful calibration is needed to avoid this boiling over into all-out conflict, which would be disastrous for Israel.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Israel / Hezbollah Heats Up, Maduro Declares Victory and Bangladesh Protest Effects"},{"content":" Eyes On Bangladesh, America and Venezuela[ Decis Monday Briefing \u0026amp; Weekly Country Stability Matrix - July 22 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\nHere’s a quick round-up of some significant stories to help you prepare for the week(s) ahead. But first, the stability matrix.\nApologies but you’ll need to turn your phone and zoom in if you’re reading this on a mobile - I’ll work on enlarging the matrix over time.\nReminder: a downward arrow signifies the location is more turbulent, whereas an upward arrow means calmer\nIs somewhere important to you missing? Hit ‘reply’ and we’ll get them added to the matrix.\nEvents of interest that we’re monitoring.\n🇧🇩 Bangladesh Bangladesh is assessed as stable but **more turbulent **than normal.\nBangladesh is experiencing the most turbulence it has faced in years as students — and a growing range of supporters — protest a reinstituted job quota law. The Bangladeshi Supreme Court has overturned the rule but deaths related to the protests have now topped 100 and the demonstrators’ grievances seem to have expanded to a broader critique of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s rule.\nThis raises the stakes for the government with respect to curbing the protests, as a widespread revolt would be much more difficult to deal with than single-issue protests.\nOrganizations with significant exposure to Bangladesh should take steps to adapt to widespread, sustained disruptions to operations there.\nBusinesses without a direct flow of goods from Bangladesh should review their supply chains to determine how any widespread disruption might affect them. (See below.)\nBangladesh: Main Exports and Export Destinations (2020, via Wikipedia)\nExported goods\nCotton textiles and knitwear, jute and jute goods, fish and seafood, leather and leather goods, home textiles, pharmaceuticals, processed food, plastics, bicycles.\n**Main export partners **(showing the percent of exported goods to a destination)\nGermany(+) 16%\nUnited States(+) 15.2%\nUnited Kingdom(+) 7.41%\nSpain(+) 7.17%\nPoland(+) 5.552%\nFrance(+) 4.2%\nNetherlands(+) 3.55%\nItaly(+) 3.36%\nWant more on planning for supply chain disruption? (Of course you do!)\nGet the Supply Chain deep dive report here\nHere’s the Decis News Summary for Bangladesh for the period July 15 - July 21.\nThis week\u0026rsquo;s critical events in Bangladesh centered around widespread student protests and violent clashes over government job quotas, resulting in numerous casualties and significant civil unrest. The protests, which began over quotas in government jobs reserved for veterans\u0026rsquo; families, [SOURCE] quickly escalated into broader anti-government demonstrations. The death toll from the protests rose sharply, with reports indicating at least 32 people killed [SOURCE], although some sources claimed even higher numbers. The violence led to the destruction of property, including the torching of a state\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/07/22/eyes-bangladesh-america-venezuela/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eEyes On Bangladesh, America and Venezuela[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"decis-monday-briefing--weekly-country-stability-matrix---july-22-2024\"\u003eDecis Monday Briefing \u0026amp; Weekly Country Stability Matrix - July 22 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere’s a quick round-up of some significant stories to help you prepare for the week(s) ahead. But first, the stability matrix.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eApologies but you’ll need to turn your phone and zoom in if you’re reading this on a mobile - I’ll work on enlarging the matrix over time.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Eyes On Bangladesh, America and Venezuela"},{"content":" Better Decisions, Faster[ Welcome to Decis Intelligence I’ve never met a capable decision-maker who didn’t want the best available intelligence.\nNor have I met a slow team that excelled.\nHowever, too much data — an excess of noise — drowns out the vital signal decision-makers need, so more isn’t better.\nAnd in a faster-paced, more connected world, there isn’t the time to wait for tomorrow’s morning brief or for an analyst to be available to hop on a call.\nBut again, a torrent of data isn’t the answer.\nIntelligence + Speed = Proactivity Instead, decision-makers need data that has been collated, curated and customized and they need it fast. That way, they’ll have the knowledge and context needed to build understanding.\nThe understanding they need to make the best decision possible at that time. (Even if that decision is to do nothing.)\nUntil now, this kind of service has been the purview of governments and deep-pocketed firms who can afford to run an intelligence team, or engage one of the firms who supply these services.\nBut for most firms, this is an eye-watering expense that’s way beyond what they can afford. Meaning they have to hope for the best: hope that they can react quickly enough when something changes. Their risks are greater, chance of failure higher, and opportunities fewer.\nInstead of carpe diem, they’re lucky if they can carpe yesterday. It feels like things are stacked against them.\nYou Don’t Need a Crystal Ball But here’s the thing: you don’t need a crystal ball or several weeks notice to get ahead of events.\nWe talk about skating to where the puck is going, but in most cases, we don’t need to know the exact spot on the ice it will land on: we just need to know a general direction to head towards.\n(After all, a lot’s going to happen between now and then)\nIn many cases, just knowing that something’s out of line is enough.\nA general directional trend — are things more turbulent or calm than normal? — might be enough to let you reconsider your posture. Or notice of a significant event, like an election, change in the cost of living, or unusually raucous protests, can alert you to pay attention to and prepare for what might happen next.\nWelcome to Decis Intelligence That’s what I’ve set out to do with Decis Intelligence: provide that tiny glimpse around the corner of what’s out of the ordinary and what to keep an eye on. I’m not pretending that I have a crystal ball or some other magical forecasting ability.\nInstead, there’s an analysis engine based on 30+ years of on-the-ground experience, hundreds of assessments, and a refined set of threat conditions — the same threat conditions I’ve used to determine country risk for two decades — that have trained a fine-tuned AI that only does one thing: analyze country stability.\nThat, plus half a dozen other AI and ML tools take thousands of data points every day to provide the stability ratings, directional trends and new summaries.\nAnd all that means we can provide the customized, focused intelligence you need to make better decisions faster.\nWelcome to Decis Intelligence.\nCarpe tomorrow\nDecis SITREPS\nYour geopolitical pulse: data-driven insights for decision-makers—like a VIX index for the world.\nHome\nPosts\n© 2026 Decis SITREPS.\nPrivacy policy\nTerms of use\n[Powered by beehiiv](https://www.beehiiv.com/?utm_source=Decis SITREPS\u0026amp;utm_medium=footer)\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/07/03/better-decisions-faster/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBetter Decisions, Faster[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"welcome-to-decis-intelligence\"\u003eWelcome to Decis Intelligence\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’ve never met a capable decision-maker who didn’t want the best available intelligence.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNor have I met a slow team that excelled.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, too much data — an excess of noise — drowns out the vital signal decision-makers need, so more isn’t better.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd in a faster-paced, more connected world, there isn’t the time to wait for tomorrow’s morning brief or for an analyst to be available to hop on a call.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Better Decisions, Faster"},{"content":" “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.” Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld February 12, 2002.\n​In addition to Rumsfeld’s three variations, there’s a fourth category — unknown knowns — that isn’t talked about as much but it’s relevant to AI, particularly for risk managers.\nWe can broadly define unknown knowns as ‘things that are known, but we don’t or can’t access that knowledge‘. We’ve all felt this way when we know we’ve read a report or seen a critical piece of data somewhere; we just can’t recall where. It’s the inaccessibility that causes the issue.\nConsidering AIs, unknown knowns are both an opportunity and a limitation, particularly for security and risk managers.\nFirst, the opportunity. LLMs are very good at taking vague questions and trawling vast amounts of data to find plausible answers. This approach is very different from traditional boolean search, where the machine only searches for the exact terms and parameters you give it. More broadly, you can ask an LLM to examine a large amount of data and look for trends or patterns, meaning that we can ask them to analyze the enormous amounts of data we accumulate. These data hoards are so massive that we’d never be able to interpret them manually, but with an AI, we can extract hidden knowledge that’s otherwise inaccessible. So AIs open up access to these otherwise unknown knowns.\nUnfortunately, this only works when the data is in a format that the AIs can access, which is where the limitation occurs because a considerable amount of human knowledge and understanding isn’t written down or recorded. That’s particularly the case in a professional setting.\nImagine the amount of data passed around in an executive meeting. We have hours of speech, images, graphs, whiteboard illustrations, scribbled notes, gestures, and facial expressions summarized in a couple of lines of meeting minutes. e.g The leadership team discussed the need to expand into new markets in Europe and agreed to begin operations in Germany’ This gives us zero insight into how the team came to that decision. Domains where we do have meticulously recorded notes — such as medicine or scientific experimentation where note-keeping is an essential part of the process — are the exception, not the rule.\nSo when it comes to training an AI on more abstract processes like decision-making, the knowledge isn’t accessible by the AIs: it’s known to us, but it’s unknown to them. So, unless we start recording a lot more of our strategic discussions — which I think is highly unlikely in most organiazations — the knowledge will remain inaccessible.\nThe result is either AIs with huge blind spots because there is little or no knowledge on which they can train, or, more likely, AIs that are very narrow and heavily biased towards one thought pattern or personality. That’s why it’s much easier to build a strategic AI that mimics Josh Waitzkin or Claire Hughes Johnson than it is to train a generic Deloitte AI.\nHow does that affect risk managers specifically? First, we have this tremendous opportunity to put the vast amounts of untapped knowledge to work. This will give us meaningful, actionable insights to help our businesses succeed.\nBut it also means that if we’re hoping for the risk management version of Harvey.ai, the legal co-pilot, we might be waiting a long time.\nBecause, unlike the law where there are much more precise references, the security and risk management domain is fragmented into multiple fiefdoms that operate independently. Even within each domain, there’s no one source of truth.\nMoreover, much of what risk managers do, particularly operational risk managers, is based on experience and situational analysis: exactly the kind of knowledge that’s not recorded in detail.\nSo, there’s not a straightforward library or body of references to point an AI at to train.\nThat might seem like a great advantage: if we can’t train security.ai, then it can’t take over our jobs. But that’s a very shortsighted perspective because someone will transfer a security.ai, but it won’t be very good, so your job will be taken by a second-class robot.\nPlus, if we don’t have security co-pilots, we are surely missing out on all the advantages they offer.\nSo we should take this opportunity to unearth these unknown knowns and start training security and risk co-pilots. How?\nRecord your thought processes. Document your procedures. Codify the steps you take to work through complicated issues. That way, you’ll be able to train your own AI or contribute to the SME version for your area of expertise.\nOtherwise, we’ll end up with a security and risk AI built by non-SMEs, one that sounds plausible but has huge blind spots because of the unknown unknowns.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/04/23/unknown-knowns/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”\n\u003cem\u003eDefense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld February 12, 2002.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Unknown Knowns"},{"content":"Lloyds recently announced that they’re cutting a large number of risk managers because the group was hindering “intelligent risk-taking” (Bloomberg). This will pan out in a couple of years either in the bank’s earnings results or fines from the regulators but, whatever the outcome, this is a good example of the risk manager’s dilemma: how to balance:\nThe law and regulatory requirements The business’s objectives and culture The individual’s sense of what’s right The dilemma is that these three won’t always be in alignment. And often, they shouldn’t be: a risk management system works best when it’s under a healthy degree of tension. We want a robust back-and-forth between an aggressive COO and a cautious CRO. That’s going to help the firm take manageable risks without getting into too much trouble. Why Lloyds couldn’t get this balance right isn’t clear yet. Maybe these individuals were far too cautious. Perhaps the bank wants a looser interpretation of the rules that the risk managers weren’t happy to sign off on. Again, only time will tell.\nBut every risk manager has to triangulate between these three points to find a workable (I won’t say happy) medium where things are balanced. That’s hard and necessary, but as stories like this illustrate, it’s not always possible.\nQuite the dilemma.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/04/16/the-risk-managers-dilemma/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eLloyds recently announced that they’re cutting a large number of risk managers because the group was hindering “intelligent risk-taking” (\u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/lloyds-restructures-risk-management-unit-after-internal-review.\"\u003eBloomberg\u003c/a\u003e). This will pan out in a couple of years either in the bank’s earnings results or fines from the regulators but, whatever the outcome, this is a good example of the risk manager’s dilemma: how to balance:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThe law and regulatory requirements\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThe business’s objectives and culture\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThe individual’s sense of what’s right\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe dilemma is that these three won’t always be in alignment. And often, they shouldn’t be: a risk management system works best when it’s under a healthy degree of tension. We want a robust back-and-forth between an aggressive COO and a cautious CRO. That’s going to help the firm take manageable risks without getting into too much trouble. \u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Risk Manager’s Dilemma"},{"content":"Before we jump in, don’t be put off by the technical aspects of this: the overall concept is pretty straightforward and something you can put into practice yourself (I explain how to at the end).\nUsing the Right Tool for the Job Despite their incredible capabilities, even the best LLM*-based AI suffers from a tendency to exaggerate or make up facts – AKA hallucinate. That’s not such an issue when you’re asking it to help tweak some text or brainstorm ideas, but it’s a big problem when you’re trying to use AI for analysis. (*Large language model.)\nOn the other hand, simply dumping a mountain of data into a report or sending someone a spreadsheet without any commentary creates a different set of problems.\nHowever, when we take a combined approach, we can get some pretty impressive results as long as we make sure we’re using the right tool for the job.\nHere’s an example of how I’ve combined these approaches in DCDR, most recently to create a series of quarterly country stability assessment reports. These reports require a combination of data – e.g. news reports – analysis, and text summarization.\nI’ve combined these individual functions together into a single process, each focused on a single task. Here’s how these elements work together.\nExample: The DCDR Assessment Chain (Note that I’m just using DCDR as an example; you can apply the same techniques anytime you’re conducting analysis with AI.)\nStep 1- gather the news (DATA) The app gathers news headlines for each country multiple times per day via an API (an application programming interface, in this case, a way for me to access a news data feed). The parameters of the API can be adjusted to narrow the results down but this isn’t perfect so I need a way to deal with non-relevant stories.\nStep 2 – check the news relevance (ANALYSIS) Each story is passed to a specially trained instance of an LLM (currently an OpenAI model) which is asked to determine if it is ‘relevant’ or ‘not relevant’ with respect to country stability. This takes advantage of an LLM’s ability to detect sentiment, in this case, relevance to DCDR’s definition of country stability. This tags each story for relevance so irrelevant news can be ignored.\nStep 3 – Extract Keywords and Summarize the News (SUMMARIZATION) Next, DCDR uses an LLM’s straightforward text management abilities to extract a list of keywords from stories and write a summary of the news for the period in question.\nAt this point, you’ll note that we’ve used the three different techniques- data, analysis and summarization – to achieve different outcomes at different stages of the process. You’ll also see how inappropriate wrong tool could be. For example, trying to get the API to only give us news relevant to country stability would give us very mixed results, and asking an LLM for country news will provide unverifiable, possible incorrect, results.\nNow you’ve got the gist of the approach, we’ll speed through the rest of the process, but here’s an overview of the whole sequence so you can see how the DCDR switches between functions.\nStep 4 – Collect Background Country Information (DATA) An API call collects factual background information on the country and stores this in a database.\nStep 5 – Conduct a Stability Assessment (ASSESSMENT) The stability assessment uses a very narrowly trained, fine-tuned version of an OpenAI model. This uses the country’s news feed and background data to ascribe a stability rating for the country.\nStep 6 – Search for Upcoming Events (DATA) Another API call searches the web for upcoming events in the country. This produces up-to-date but raw search results, so we need a way to clean these up.\nStep 7 – Summarize Upcoming Events (SUMMARIZATION) Another LLM reviews the raw search results, extracts relevant upcoming events, and summarizes these in a readable format. As with the other LLMs, this model has a different prompt and set of conditions to narrow its focus and improve consistency.\nStep 8 – Conduct Forward Assessment (ASSESSMENT) The final stage uses the specially trained country assessment model from step 5 to conduct a forward-looking stability assessment for the country. (There’s an example of an assessment at the very bottom of this post.)\nTime-Consuming, But Time Well Spent This is a time-consuming process that requires careful sequencing and a lot of computation. Cutting down the number of steps and hoping that a general LLM gives us a decent response would be significantly faster and cheaper from a processing standpoint.\nHowever, chaining the different processes together like this, and using the right tool for the job, plays to the strengths of each component. This ensures that we get the desired results at each stage of the process and decreases the opportunity for error and hallucination.\nThis is an occasion when the juice is definitely worth the squeeze.\nThe Non-Technical Approach At the start, I promised that this was something you could do without getting too deep into the technology, so what does that look like?\nIn short, you take the same approach, but instead of chaining together a series of tools, you move along the process manually.\nFor example, instead of an API call for the news, simply filter your browser search for ‘news’. Then, extract the data from those results and clean it up a little before dropping that into the LLM prompt. Next, adjust the LLM prompt to give you the results you want.\nGetting the prompt right can take time but once you have one that works, save it for future use. (And, for a real meta-experience, ask your LLM to improve the prompt before you use it in anger.)\nHere’s an example of one of the prompts DCDR uses.\nf”’ You are an expert AI analyst trained specifically on understanding factors that critically influence a country’s stability, safety, and security. You have assessed the stability of {country} and explained your assessment reasoning. Now, I want you to consider these upcoming events that may affect {country} and provide a forward-looking assessment. I require two things:\nYour assessment of whether these events are likely to result in the situation improving, deteriorating, or remaining broadly the same based on the news. You must use one of these terms to describe the effect: ‘Improves’, ‘Degrades’, or ‘Negligible Effect’ Explain why you came to that conclusion. Construct your response as follows: Based on these upcoming events, the situation in {country} likely [stability description]. This assessment is based upon the following factors [assessment reasoning]. ”’\nThe upcoming events data is about 1,500 words which is supplied to the request separately. You could do the same with a version of this prompt, followed by a cut and paste of the web search results.\nSo the overall concept is simple and remains the same: use the right tool for the job and deliberately pass the output from one stage of the process to the next, whether that’s in code or manually.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/04/09/the-right-tool-for-the-job-getting-the-best-out-of-ai-for-analytical-tasks/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eBefore we jump in, don’t be put off by the technical aspects of this: the overall concept is pretty straightforward and something you can put into practice yourself (I explain how to at the end).\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"using-the-right-tool-for-the-job\"\u003eUsing the Right Tool for the Job\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite their incredible capabilities, even the best LLM*-based AI suffers from a tendency to exaggerate or make up facts – AKA hallucinate. That’s not such an issue when you’re asking it to help tweak some text or brainstorm ideas, but it’s a big problem when you’re trying to use AI for analysis. (*Large language model.)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Right Tool for the Job: Getting the best out of AI for analytical tasks"},{"content":"We are moving too slowly The existential threat that businesses and many countries are facing currently is not from artificial intelligence, climate change, the danger of another financial meltdown or a conflict.\nThe threat they need to address most urgently is an inability to move quickly and the events that we are facing far outpace our ability to understand, orientate, make decisions, and act.\n(Spoiler: it’s impossible to plan your way out of a problem. At some point, we have to take action.)\nUnfortunately, instead of a bias to action, we dismantle every option to the atomic level via the Socratic method until the original idea is lost or forgotten. We get bogged down with planning for every eventuality. Or we wait ‘until we have all the facts’, forgetting that we will never have all of the facts and that situations change.\nThe result is that we don’t act in a meaningful timescale and events overtake us, leaving us reactive instead of proactive. We lose the opportunity to get ahead of the situation and often squander the opportunity to act entirely.\nBut we can fix this.\nThis is an easily solvable problem We can stop using 20th century processes, based on 18th century laws, to deal with 21st century problems.\nNot only are these unsuitable for the challenges of today, but they are wholly unsuited to the challenges of tomorrow. Particularly when the most serious issues we face – such as climate change or the misuse of ai – have a compounding and accelerating effect. We can encourage leaders to take action in spite of the fear of criticism, lawsuits, and armchair quarterbacking.\nThe plan might be imperfect in the first instance — most are — but we know that in almost every case, we can change course and iterate as we go. Most importantly, we need to reduce the opportunity for spurious legal challenges that have no merit but are simply delaying or disruptive tactics.\nWe need a corporate Good Samaritan law.\nConversely, we need to crack down on wrongdoers, especially the besuited bandits who cause havoc from the boardroom and get away scot-free. Deliberately flaunting the rules has to be published if we want to encourage good-faith action.\nSo who are the heroes who will lead this change?\nRisk Managers Should be Taking the Lead Unfortunately, risk managers should be leading the charge here but we’re not.\nWe seem to mistake a better Bayesian model or more complex spreadsheet for progress. We spend far too long feeling smug after we post a “LOL: heat map = 💩” meme.\nThis is simply thrashing around in the shallow end of the pool: noisy and good fun, but ultimately unproductive.\nOur intent as risk managers should not be the completion of a risk assessment: it should be to identify and enable the actions necessary to achieve our objectives. We should be creating the conditions for success, not simply cataloguing how things can go wrong.\nAgain, we can’t spreadsheet our way to success.\nA Bias Towards Action The event cycle or OODA loop is going to get faster and faster so we must too.\nBut the whole point of the OODA loop is to get to the ‘action’ element ASAP, not languish in the OO part.\nBut that’s where we seem to be stuck. Maybe that’s due to the demands of endless compliance tasks or because our leaders see us as spreadsheet jockeys instead of part of the decision-making system.\nWhatever the case, unless we speed up our processes and integrate risk into the decision-making process more tightly, we are failing as risk managers.\nThere’s no point simply becoming risk recorders: observers of events. Instead, we need to grasp the initiative, sharpen our tools and processes, and get back to our roots: as the enablers of action.\nAfter all, it was an ability to understand and put a price on risk that allowed ships to undertake dangerous, potentially ruinous voyages in the 1600s.\nAn ability to understand and overcome challenges is what put humans into space.\nAn ability to move fast and take risks in the face of uncertainty is what allowed BioNTech to create a COVID-19 vaccine in a fraction of the normal time.\nAnd this kind of bias towards action, based upon our best understanding of the risks at that time, is what we need if we are going to survive and thrive.\nBut that all starts with taking action to take action. 🚀\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/04/02/threats-are-accelerating-so-should-we/","summary":"\u003ch1 id=\"we-are-moving-too-slowly\"\u003eWe are moving too slowly\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe existential threat that businesses and many countries are facing currently is not from artificial intelligence, climate change, the danger of another financial meltdown or a conflict.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe threat they need to address most urgently is an inability to move quickly and the events that we are facing far outpace our ability to understand, orientate, make decisions, and act.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(Spoiler: it’s impossible to plan your way out of a problem. At some point, we have to take action.)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Threats are accelerating: so should we"},{"content":"The DCDR agents made a mistake the other day. The vessel’s name was incorrect in the original report on the bridge collapse in Baltimore. Not just a little wrong, completely wrong: it was the name of an actual vessel, but one that didn’t appear in any of the details supplied to the model.\n(Thanks, Mark, for picking that up.)\nSo, I’ve added some additional quality control checks to reduce errors in the reports without sacrificing too much speed.\nBut the mistake got me thinking again about speed vs accuracy. Which is better?\nLet’s dismiss the obvious extremes first. We want highly accurate surgeons and fast planes (with accurate navigation systems).\nIn business, a complete organizational overhaul isn’t something to rush, but what about more general decision-making? Or reacting to an impending crisis?\nIn most cases, I’ll happily sacrifice some accuracy for a little more speed (usually the trade-off). After all, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the early stages of most events so the inaccuracy is built in. Plus, the situation will change either as the event develops or as people react to your actions (or don’t).\nSo, a faster decision-action cadence allows you to make a decision and iterate or correct it as things come into focus.\nBut speed alone isn’t the point: it’s being able to make quality decisions and execute at speed. Here are some ways you can develop speed without compromising the quality of your decisions.\nStandardize the decision-making process. You’ll be astonished at how much difference a simple agenda can make, so establish a well-defined and well-understood process for making decisions throughout the organization. An essential part of this process is defining how to capture and disseminate the final decision because there has to be a clear point when the discussion is over and the decision is made. Then, it’s time to take action. And once you have this process, you need to stick to it. Focus on the important, not the interesting. We’re overloaded with information, which complicates decision-making, so you need to be ruthless about the information and questions you allow into the discussion. ‘How is that relevant?’ may feel like a sharp rebuke when it’s said out loud, but that’s the question everyone should ask themselves before introducing more information or a different perspective. (To be clear, that’s not an excuse to bulldoze over people; instead, it’s an acknowledgment that sometimes not everyone needs a say and not every fact is additive.)\nDelegate and Assign Decisions. Not every decision requires everyone’s input, so identify decisions managers can make at different levels of the organization and allow them to decide the best course of action. And once they’ve delegated these decisions leaders need to remain hands-off, not jump in and rehash every decision. This is different from developing the execution plan, that is going to need input from lots of others. And there will often still be a need for a check from legal or comms before you hit ‘send’, but that doesn’t mean that every decision needs every department at the table throughout the process. (That’s guaranteed to kill your speed.)\nAlways set a deadline. Sometimes, there’s an external timetable you need to adhere to, but even when the timing is up to you, you need to set a deadline for the decision. This must accommodate the time required to execute the decision, so work back from there. You might have less time for deliberation than you’d like, but an OK plan with great execution will always beat a great plan with OK execution. So make sure you leave sufficient time to put your plan into action. (One thing you can try is parallel planning, where you start prepping options A, B, and C and then commit to one once a decision is made or you find that one approach is more successful than the others. That’s opposed to sequential planning, where you start with plan A, then switch to plan B if A fails, then C, etc.)\nAgree and commit. Once a decision is made, the focus switches to execution, and everyone involved has to commit to the agreed plan, even if they did not support it. Plans can fail for lots of reasons, but a senior leader’s vocal opposition or obvious lack of commitment is an almost guaranteed death sentence. This ties into the previous point: when the discussion is over, it’s over.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/03/28/speed-vs-accuracy-speed-obviously-but-how/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThe DCDR agents made a mistake the other day. The vessel’s name was incorrect in the original report on the bridge collapse in Baltimore. Not just a little wrong, completely wrong: it was the name of an actual vessel, but one that didn’t appear in any of the details supplied to the model.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(Thanks, Mark, for picking that up.)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo, I’ve added some additional quality control checks to reduce errors in the reports without sacrificing too much speed.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Speed vs Accuracy. Speed (Obviously) But How?"},{"content":" Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela\u0026ndash;Guyana and Israel \u0026ndash; Gaza[ Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela\u0026ndash;Guyana and Israel \u0026ndash; Gaza Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela\u0026ndash;Guyana and Israel \u0026ndash; Gaza DCDR Analysis for March 5 2024 Andrew Sheves Good morning.\n**Welcome to the SITREP for March 5th, 2024. **\nAs promised, I’m going to try to add some more analysis in addition to the country stability reports. So here are three hot takes on Yemen, Venezuela —Guyana, and Israel — Gaza.\nHouthis Sink First Ship Following Months of Attacks 🇾🇪 Yemen / Red Sea DCDR Baseline stability rating: Yemen is Unstable\nBased on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Yemen is more turbulent than usual\nUS CENTCOM\nMV Rubymar, a Belize-flagged, UK-owned bulk carrier, sank over the weekend, three weeks after being attacked off the coast of Yemen. The vessel was carrying 21,000 metric tons of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer, which is now leaking into the sea along with her supply of fuel oil, which is causing a reported 30 km-long oil slick in the narrow waterway.\nOn Saturday, US Central Command (CENTCOM) noted that not only is the MV Rubymar an environmental hazard, but she now presents a serious maritime hazard for vessels in the shallow waters of the Red Sea. (CENTCOM via X)\nMeanwhile, The Houthis show no sign of letting up. Hussein al-Ezzi, deputy foreign minister in the Houthi-led government, said in a post on X. \u0026ldquo;Yemen will continue to sink more British ships, and any repercussions or other damages will be added to Britain\u0026rsquo;s bill\u0026hellip;It is a rogue state that attacks Yemen and partners with America in sponsoring ongoing crimes against civilians in Gaza.\u0026rdquo; via Marine Link\nDCDR Analysis Supply chain delays will continue for the mid-term, and businesses should plan to maintain whatever contingencies they have in place through late Q2 or early Q3 of 2024.\nVessels should continue to avoid this area, no matter what assurances they may have or whatever protection is on board. The attack of a Marshall Island-flagged vessel, reportedly headed to Iran — The Houthis main backer — indicates that no vessels can be considered truly safe.\nVenezuelan, Guyanan Leaders Meet, But Tensions over Essequibo Remain 🇬🇾 Guyana DCDR Baseline stability rating: Guyana is Stable\nBased on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Guyana is more turbulent than usual\n🇻🇪 Venezuela DCDR Baseline stability rating: Venezuela is Critically Unstable\nBased on current events, it is assessed that the situation in Venezuela is more turbulent than usual\nVenezuela\u0026rsquo;s President Nicolas Maduro, St Vincent and the Grenadines\u0026rsquo; Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, and Guyana\u0026rsquo;s President Mohamed Irfaan via Forbes\n**In the space of three years, Guyana has gone from pumping 0 barrels of oil per day to exporting a peak of 637,000 barrels on January 31st **([Bloomberg](https://www.bl\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/03/05/three-hot-takes-yemen-venezuelaguyana-israel-gaza/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThree Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela\u0026ndash;Guyana and Israel \u0026ndash; Gaza[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThree Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela\u0026ndash;Guyana and Israel \u0026ndash; Gaza\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"three-hot-takes-yemen-venezuelaguyana-and-israel--gaza\"\u003eThree Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela\u0026ndash;Guyana and Israel \u0026ndash; Gaza\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"dcdr-analysis-for-march-5-2024\"\u003eDCDR Analysis for March 5 2024\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e**Welcome to the SITREP for March 5th, 2024. **\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs promised, I’m going to try to add some more analysis in addition to the country stability reports. So here are three hot takes on Yemen, Venezuela —Guyana, and Israel — Gaza.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela-Guyana and Israel-Gaza"},{"content":" Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥[ Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥 Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥 Sometimes, things get worse\u0026hellip; before they get worse. Andrew Sheves Good morning. Welcome to a very late DCDR Research report for February 22, 2024\nWhy so late?\nThe DCDR analysis engine is working very well (honestly, it’s way better out of the box than I had anticipated). So, I’ll normally let the model do most of the work and I don’t need to add any commentary.\nHowever, there are times when otherwise tenuous things feel like they’re converging. And even though the analysis model is very good in the near term, these are some longer-term threads, so some commentary is necessary. This week was one of those times. I apologize that I’ve been dithering over these assessments all week because I was worried that I was being overly pessimistic. (Plus, it took me 36 hours to write the piece on Israel.)\nBut that worry disappeared earlier today when I started seeing some of the events I thought might happen, happening. So, here are three things that I’m tracking as potential flashpoints.\nA Confident Putin Russian President Vladimir Putin during his interview with Tucker Carlson on February 6, 2024. Image from Tucker Carlson Network/Handout\nPutin continually stressing to Tucker Carlson that Russia had no territorial interest in Poland while painting Warsaw as a potential aggressor. Reported troop movements on Russia’s northwest border with the Baltic States.\nSabotage in Estonia and placing Prime Minister Kallas on a ‘most wanted list.\nNone of these events are enough by themselves to raise the alarm, but together, these sound like Putin is making a case for potential action in Poland or the Baltic states. These statements and actions mirror activity seen prior to the Russian invasions of Crimea and Ukraine. Previously, there was a sense that Putin would not want to open up additional fronts while the fighting in Ukraine drags on. But three recent events have likely emboldened Putin and may suggest a faster timeline.\nThe Russian advance into Avdiivka after months of stalemate is a significant victory for Russia in Ukraine.\nThe blockage of aid to Ukraine by Republicans in the US Congress is significantly weakening Ukraine. (And even if aid is approved, it may prove to be too late as Russia may carry the momentum from Avdiivka into the spring.)\nFormer President Trump\u0026rsquo;s comments questioning the value of NATO and seemingly inviting Putin to take action against Europe. Again, none of these alone would be enough to change the situation, but together, these will have increased Putin’s confidence. The very public murder of Alexei Navalny feels like a show of strength.\nThis confidence might lead him to test NATO’s resolve over Eastern Europe and the Baltics sooner rather than later. And what better time to pressure NATO than during a contentious and noisy election in the US? That’s not to suggest a full-on invasion is imminent or even likely in the short term. However, [increased sabotage](https://apnews.com/article/estonia-russia-sabotage-tension-hybrid-operation-629e777ac\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/02/22/three-flashpoints-watch/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThree Flashpoints to Watch 🔥[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThree Flashpoints to Watch 🔥\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"three-flashpoints-to-watch-\"\u003eThree Flashpoints to Watch 🔥\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"sometimes-things-get-worse-before-they-get-worse\"\u003eSometimes, things get worse\u0026hellip; before they get worse.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nGood morning. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eWelcome to a very late DCDR Research report for February 22, 2024\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhy so late?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe DCDR analysis engine is working very well (honestly, it’s way better out of the box than I had anticipated). So, I’ll normally let the model do most of the work and I don’t need to add any commentary.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Three Flashpoints to Watch"},{"content":" Deep Dive: Shipping \u0026amp; Supply Chain Disruptions[ A deep dive into how to track and prepare for supply chain interruptions Andrew Sheves Welcome to this week’s PRO Research report. These are long-form analyses of something that’s important to decision-makers, giving them the background and context on the issue along with some insight into how things might develop.\nThis week’s report focuses on maritime supply chains, what can interrupt these, and how you can make your supply chain more resilient.\nScroll down to download a PDF copy of this report\nPhoto by Venti Views on Unsplash\nThe Importance of Shipping Amateurs talk tactics; professionals talk logistics.\nNapoleon Bonaparte Acknowledging the importance of shipping alone won’t help organizations plan for potential disruptions. Particularly as the category of ‘shipping’ covers a wide range of cargoes, routes, vessels, origins and destinations. So there’s no single shipping market, meaning there’s no single supply chain.\nHowever, there are common factors that affect all shipping-related supply chains, and if we pay attention to these, we will get a good sense of the macro-level health of the maritime element of an organization’s supply line.\nThere are a lot of elements in a supply chain, but for simplicity, you can use these three factors to quickly determine your exposure to shipping disruption.\nVolume How much essential material moves by sea?\nGiven that 80% of international goods travel by sea then, unless something is uniquely local and highly insulated, its supply chain will be affected by what happens at sea either directly or indirectly. There are exceptions to this and the exact amount of exposure will differ, business by business, but sea freight still dominates supply chains worldwide.\nStocks How many days of supply does a business hold?\nWhether these are car parts for an assembly line, sacks of flour for a baker, or fuel for the filling station, the ability to withstand disruption is heavily dependent on the days of inventory or supply on hand. As many firms practice ‘just-in-time’ inventory to help manage efficiency and save costs, these stocks can be surprisingly small. For example, from a UN Report:\nApple keeps around 5.2 days of inventory on hand\nAmazon holds inventory for an average of 36.8 days\nTesla has an inventory period of 20.2 days\nMcDonald\u0026rsquo;s has an inventory turnover period of 11.6 days.\nAt the national level, supplies can also be surprisingly limited. The UK only has a few days wort\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/02/15/deep-dive-shipping-supply-chain-disruptions/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDeep Dive: Shipping \u0026amp; Supply Chain Disruptions[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"a-deep-dive-into-how-to-track-and-prepare-for-supply-chain-interruptions\"\u003eA deep dive into how to track and prepare for supply chain interruptions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nWelcome to this week’s PRO Research report. These are long-form analyses of something that’s important to decision-makers, giving them the background and context on the issue along with some insight into how things might develop.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis week’s report focuses on maritime supply chains, what can interrupt these, and how you can make your supply chain more resilient.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Deep Dive: Shipping and Supply Chain Disruptions"},{"content":" Essential Rare Earth Minerals and Base Metals: Supply and Stability[ DCDR Deep Dive Report Andrew Sheves Welcome to the first of the DCDR PRO Research reports: long-form analysis of something that’s important to decision-makers, giving them the background and context on the issue along with some insight into how things might develop.\nThese reports will be part of the upcoming PRO subscription that starts soon.\nWhere possible, these reports also include applicable mitigation measures where there are across-the-board steps that every organization can implement. That way, you’ll understand the issue, can start determining what it means for your organization, and start taking action as quickly as possible.\nScroll down to download a PDF copy of this report\nThis report looks at the main suppliers of various essential elements and assesses the risks associated with each location and what the near-term situation might look like. This will help those more exposed to the production end of the chain to better identify and respond to the risks and opportunities they face. The last part of the report considers the non-operational issues associated with the extraction of these elements, which affects users and consumers further along the supply chain. Included is a framework for the ethical mining and sourcing of these elements to help organizations at every stage of the process source these minerals responsibly and manage the reputational issues associated with some producing countries.\nI - Why are these important? Rare earth minerals (REMs) and base metals are crucial for a wide range of applications, particularly in high-tech industries. These are the essential components that help us produce more than 200 products, ranging from smartphones and electric cars to advanced military equipment and many clean energy technologies. They are also vital for the production of high-tech materials used in industries such as petrochemicals, energy and transportation. These elements are essential to the world we live in today, and critical to our desire to move towards a highly connected, zero-carbon world.\nClose-up of an uncut silicon wafer - Photo by Laura Ockel on Unsplash\nHowever, the supply chains for these materials are complex.\nIn many cases, a single country dominates the production or supply of these elements. For example, China controls a significant proportion of all REMs produced, while the world\u0026rsquo;s largest supply of cobalt is in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This concentration presents two levels of supply chain risk.\nFirst, there’s a single point of failure or bottle neck where one country is the main supplier of an element. An accidental \u0026ndash; or deliberate \u0026ndash; disruption to production is hard to overcome from other sources. Second, the internal and local conditions at the source have a knock-on effect at all stages of the supply chain. These include domestic or regional tension that physically interrupt supplies and drive up prices. However, environmental, social, and labor issues can also harm the supply o\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2024/02/08/essential-rare-earth-minerals-base-metals-supply-stability/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eEssential Rare Earth Minerals and Base Metals: Supply and Stability[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"dcdr-deep-dive-report\"\u003eDCDR Deep Dive Report\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves\nWelcome to the first of the DCDR PRO Research reports: long-form analysis of something that’s important to decision-makers, giving them the background and context on the issue along with some insight into how things might develop.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese reports will be part of the upcoming PRO subscription that starts soon.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhere possible, these reports also include applicable mitigation measures where there are across-the-board steps that every organization can implement. That way, you’ll understand the issue, can start determining what it means for your organization, and start taking action as quickly as possible.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Essential Rare Earth Minerals and Base Metals: Supply and Stability"},{"content":"Why the Industry is in Trouble Despite being the inventor of the first digital camera in the late 1970s, Kodak famously ignored the switch to digital photography, losing the company its commanding market lead and significantly hurting the business.\nRisk and crisis consulting is currently facing its own Kodak moment.\nAI and machine learning tools reduce the effort, time, and cost of routine risk and crisis tasks by well over 90%. Consultancies believe they can harness these efficiencies to improve their profit margins and assume that only the largest firms will want, or be able, to develop their own tools.\nBoth assumptions are incorrect First, clients are keenly aware of the tendency of consulting firms to pad the billing hours. Therefore, it is inconceivable that clients won’t question why they are being billed the same number of hours for work that a consultancy boasts is mainly being done by AI.\nSecond, these tools are readily available to anyone to build their own services. Plus, a small development team is faster and more agile than a big consultancy’s IT department.\nSo this is the industry’s Kodak moment: the consultancies believe that they can continue with business as usual, missing or ignoring the changes that are taking place around them.\nHowever, even if these firms did want to take advantage of these opportunities, they can’t because a switch to digitization breaks a dollars-for-hours business model.\n(Just to be clear, I don’t mean that everything is replaced by an AI: you still need judgement, expertise, and empathy, particularly in times of crisis so those roles will continue. But that’s not enough to keep some of the big firms running – they need the busy-work dollars to keep the ship afloat.)\nSo What? If you’re a consultant – at a large or small firm – you need to think about how you’re going to manage this tension.\nEither you use AI to be more efficient but it breaks your business model. Or you don’t use AI and your business gets left behind. I don’t think there’s an easy answer for the big firms and some hard decisions lie ahead.\nHowever, small, nimble firms and teams-of-one are in a great position to take advantage of these technologies. You just have to bite the bullet and start embracing the technology.\n(If that’s something you’re interested in, sign up here to join the RiskTech group. That’s where I’ll share all the tips and tricks I’ve picked up for building technology – including AI – into your systems and processes.)\nImage via Midjourney. “Prompt: Humans and AI meeting to discuss a difficult decision. They are in a boardroom with floor-to-ceiling windows in a high tower overlooking a busy city like new york. A vivid, colorful illustration in a cyberpunk / Pixar style”\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/08/22/risk-and-crisis-consulting-is-facing-its-kodak-moment/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"why-the-industry-is-in-trouble\"\u003eWhy the Industry is in Trouble\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite being the inventor of the first digital camera in the late 1970s, \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kodak\"\u003eKodak famously ignored the switch to digital photography,\u003c/a\u003e losing the company its commanding market lead and significantly hurting the business.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRisk and crisis consulting is currently facing its own Kodak moment.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAI and machine learning tools reduce the effort, time, and cost of routine risk and crisis tasks by well over 90%. Consultancies believe they can harness these efficiencies to improve their profit margins and assume that only the largest firms will want, or be able, to develop their own tools.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk and Crisis Consulting is Facing its Kodak Moment"},{"content":" Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖[ Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖 Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖 I’ve been building custom knowledge agents (AKA chatbots) for a few weeks, and my friend Greg suggested I share some background on how you build these tools and why. The ‘how’ is covered in a short demo video towards the end of the piece, but before you start building nodes, it’s worth thinking about what these new chatbots are and what they can do for you.\nFirst, we should ask what chatbots are and why they weren’t so helpful before.\nWhat’s a Chatbot \u0026amp; Why They Weren’t Great We’ve all experienced chatbots by now, whether we’re using customer support or maybe on a website’s FAQ section, and in some ways, these are text extensions of the old call trees (“press 1 for sales, 2 for customer support’) where each answer from the user sends you to a different branch of the chain. Unlike the call trees, however, the chatbots would provide appropriate answers and have built-in loops so you could ask a few questions in each session.\nUnfortunately, these chatbots are challenging to get right as the branching was built manually: each question node had ‘hardwired’ answers, leading to subsequent questions. But if the developer got the questions and answer flow wrong, the user could get led in the wrong direction or stuck in a loop. You also had to anticipate the exact question and answer the person was likely to have, which limits the usefulness of these tools for more complex searches. You’ll probably have experienced this on a troubleshooting page where your exact problem isn’t shown, so there’s no way to get an answer from the session. Hopefully, the developers added a ‘contact us’ option somewhere.\nSo, until now, chatbots have mostly been OK: able to handle pretty narrow Q\u0026amp;As but unable to manage complex questions.\nSo what’s new? With that in mind, you might not fancy manually wiring up a clunky set of nodes, hoping you can anticipate your user’s questions.\nLuckily, you don’t have to anymore because the availability of AI tools has wholly changed how chatbots work. The quick explanation is that the LLMs (large language models) allow you to use natural language (NLP – natural language processing) to ask and answer questions. And the processors needed for this kind of work are now widely available.\nSo instead of hardwired Q\u0026amp;A paths, these new chatbots do all the work to return the response that it believes is most suitable.\nHere’s an easy example I have a chatbot that uses my books as a knowledge base. One of the books – Beyond The Spreadsheet – explains how to conduct a risk assessment and has a section on ‘grading risks’. So if someone asks, ‘How Can I grade my risks?’, the model will identify that section as a good match to answer that question. So far, so straightforward.\nBut if I ask, ‘Who should lead the risk management program,’ there’s no section with that as a title. However, by ‘reading’ the text in the knowledgebase, the model identifies a section on managing the program and extracts the answer by matching the question’s meaning with the text. In this case, instead of an exact text match, NLP allows it to find the best answer based on the meaning of the question.\nSo I can now ask the model questions in natural language, and it will find the most appropriate answer based on the knowledge base.\nBut, best of all, if it’s not sure, it says, ‘I don’t know.’\nWhy No Answer is a Good Thing Surely I want an answer: what use is it when I hear ‘I don’t know’?\nWell, if you recall, one big issue with AI is hallucinations: very plausible-sounding answers that are, in fact, garbage. Unlike the nonsense answers from the lunatic personality, it’s not clear that these made-up answers are wrong. Like a convincing human BS artist, the AI can give you eloquent, convincing, detailed, and absolutely wrong answers.\nNot what you want from a technical knowledge base.\nThis is why ‘I don’t know’ is a great response: instead of making something up, the chatbot tells you it can’t answer your question from its knowledge base. You don\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/08/22/why-and-how-to-build-custom-chatbots-f0-9f-a4-96/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWhy, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWhy, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"why-and-how-to-build-custom-chatbots-\"\u003eWhy, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’ve been building custom knowledge agents (AKA chatbots) for a few weeks, and my friend Greg suggested I share some background on how you build these tools and why. The ‘how’ is covered in a short demo video towards the end of the piece, but before you start building nodes, it’s worth thinking about what these new chatbots are and what they can do for you.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots"},{"content":"I’ve been building custom knowledge agents (AKA chatbots) for a few weeks, and my friend Greg suggested I share some background on how you build these tools and why. The ‘how’ is covered in a short demo video towards the end of the piece, but before you start building nodes, it’s worth thinking about what these new chatbots are and what they can do for you.\nFirst, we should ask what chatbots are and why they weren’t so helpful before.\nWhat’s a Chatbot \u0026amp; Why They Weren’t Great We’ve all experienced chatbots by now, whether we’re using customer support or maybe on a website’s FAQ section, and in some ways, these are text extensions of the old call trees (“press 1 for sales, 2 for customer support’) where each answer from the user sends you to a different branch of the chain. Unlike the call trees, however, the chatbots would provide appropriate answers and have built-in loops so you could ask a few questions in each session.\nUnfortunately, these chatbots are challenging to get right as the branching was built manually: each question node had ‘hardwired’ answers, leading to subsequent questions. But if the developer got the questions and answer flow wrong, the user could get led in the wrong direction or stuck in a loop. You also had to anticipate the exact question and answer the person was likely to have, which limits the usefulness of these tools for more complex searches. You’ll probably have experienced this on a troubleshooting page where your exact problem isn’t shown, so there’s no way to get an answer from the session. Hopefully, the developers added a ‘contact us’ option somewhere.\nSo, until now, chatbots have mostly been OK: able to handle pretty narrow Q\u0026amp;As but unable to manage complex questions.\nSo what’s new? With that in mind, you might not fancy manually wiring up a clunky set of nodes, hoping you can anticipate your user’s questions.\nLuckily, you don’t have to anymore because the availability of AI tools has wholly changed how chatbots work. The quick explanation is that the LLMs (large language models) allow you to use natural language (NLP – natural language processing) to ask and answer questions. And the processors needed for this kind of work are now widely available.\nSo instead of hardwired Q\u0026amp;A paths, these new chatbots do all the work to return the response that it believes is most suitable.\nHere’s an easy example I have a chatbot that uses my books as a knowledge base. One of the books – Beyond The Spreadsheet – explains how to conduct a risk assessment and has a section on ‘grading risks’. So if someone asks, ‘How Can I grade my risks?’, the model will identify that section as a good match to answer that question. So far, so straightforward.\nBut if I ask, ‘Who should lead the risk management program,’ there’s no section with that as a title. However, by ‘reading’ the text in the knowledgebase, the model identifies a section on managing the program and extracts the answer by matching the question’s meaning with the text. In this case, instead of an exact text match, NLP allows it to find the best answer based on the meaning of the question.\nSo I can now ask the model questions in natural language, and it will find the most appropriate answer based on the knowledge base.\nBut, best of all, if it’s not sure, it says, ‘I don’t know.’\nWhy No Answer is a Good Thing Surely I want an answer: what use is it when I hear ‘I don’t know’?\nWell, if you recall, one big issue with AI is hallucinations: very plausible-sounding answers that are, in fact, garbage. Unlike the nonsense answers from the lunatic personality, it’s not clear that these made-up answers are wrong. Like a convincing human BS artist, the AI can give you eloquent, convincing, detailed, and absolutely wrong answers.\nNot what you want from a technical knowledge base.\nThis is why ‘I don’t know’ is a great response: instead of making something up, the chatbot tells you it can’t answer your question from its knowledge base. You don’t get a fabricated answer.\n(Oh, and if you want a fallback to deal with those out-of-left-field questions, you can also program the chatbot to go to ChatGTP or some other general model to get an answer. So when my chatbot returns, ‘I don’t know’, instead of saying that to the user, it will say something like, ‘Unfortunately, I don’t have an answer to that question in my knowledgebase, but I’ll ask my cousin ChatGTP.’ The answer that comes back is labeled as from ChatGTP, so the user knows it’s not from the knowledge base. This backup isn’t necessary for a custom chatbot, but if you can see a need for both custom and general answers, that’s how you do it.)\nThe Killer Feature: The Custom Knowledge Base This (positive) non-answer is possible because the other significant advancement is that these LLMs can now be pointed at a custom knowledge base. So unlike ChatGTP or Bard, the LLM only looks at the data you provide. That lets you give it a specific dataset designed for the task at hand.\nIn my example above, it’s my books on risk and crisis because I don’t want a general description of risk culled from 1000 web pages: I want the user to get the definition that’s consistent across my whole system.\nBut it could also be a set of technical papers relating to your business. Or FAQs for onboarding new users or staff.\nWhatever the case, the chatbot gives specific domain- or company-specific answers: not the general answers you would get from a Google search or ChatGTP.\nYou could even have proprietary company data at your fingertips in a closed or on-prem system.\nBut before you dive in, keep this in mind. GIGO: garbage in, garbage out. The underlying data has to be clearly written and able to answer the questions you’re anticipating. Without that foundation, the bot has no chance of producing good answers.\nA Quick PSA If you’re confused about where my stuff lives online? Me too! Three (four?) websites, multiple different product names, more email addresses than a Russian Content Farm.\nSo I’ve moved everything back to the original domain, Tarjuman Solutions, where you’ll find all my tools and products, plus links to the blog etc\nSo even if the answer’s not always easy with risk and crisis, finding my resources to help should be.\nCheck it out here\nWhat Can Your ChatBot Do? So what does this mean for you?\nIt means that you can quickly build a custom chatbot to answer natural language questions anytime you need people to get system, company, or organization-specific information.\nThis is like having your subject matter experts on call 24 / 7 / 365\nThese answers can return the exact match, a summary of more complex answers, or even a mix. So this is much closer to a conversation with a subject matter expert than the old fashion manually linked Q\u0026amp;A style of chatbot. Plus, you only get answers from the specific knowledge base, not a general ‘Google Search’ return or a fabricated answer from an enthusiastic but wrong AI.\nHere’s One I Built Earlier Hopefully, you’re now fired up and ready to deploy a chatbot, so how do you build one?\nHere’s a demo of a chatbot structure I’ve built to give you an idea of what’s involved. I’m using a platform called Botpress which, difficulty-wise, is around the same as building a webpage from scratch (building, not fiddling with something on a pre-built site). You also need some understanding of how these tools work to navigate things. But overall, I’d say it’s a 4-ish out of 10 technically, where one is asking chatGTP a question and ten is building models from the ground up.\n(Again, remember GIGO, so put aside time to prep your data too.)\nBut once your knowledge base is prepared and you’re ready to dive in, here’s what it looks like behind the scenes.\nAnd if you want to see one in action, I have a chatbot on my website here which answers risk and crisis questions from a knowledgebase with a ChatGTP fallback.\nWhat’s Next? A few months back, I was briefing an executive team on AI in risk and security and said that I thought these custom knowledgebase agents were the next big thing. That was correct but where I was wrong was the timing: I thought this was a late-2023, early 2024 thing, starting with big firms putting these in place.\nHowever, it’s mid-2023, and we already have these custom-built knowledge agents that pretty much anyone can build.\nThat’s why I believe that custom knowledge agents like this will be one of the fastest and most exciting AI developments affecting how we teach, troubleshoot issues, solve difficult technical problems, onboard staff, and who knows what else.\nSo the answer to ‘what’s next?’ is partly down to the developer community and what they build. But it’s largely going to be down to us, the users, finding new, innovative, and valuable ways to use this technology to spread and share knowledge.\nThat’s enough from me: it’s time for you to go and build a bot.\nWeb image from The Blah Blah Blahs ‘This and That’ check them out here.\nPowered by beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/08/22/why-and-how-to-build-custom-chatbots-/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI’ve been building custom knowledge agents (AKA chatbots) for a few weeks, and my friend Greg suggested I share some background on how you build these tools and why. The ‘how’ is covered in a short demo video towards the end of the piece, but before you start building nodes, it’s worth thinking about what these new chatbots are and what they can do for you.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFirst, we should ask what chatbots are and why they weren’t so helpful before.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖"},{"content":"Lots of businesses are wondering what AI means for them, and it’s essential that companies have an AI strategy, even if that strategy is to do nothing. But even if the answer is ‘do nothing,’ you can only get there by asking the ‘what if’ questions first.\nBut what are those questions?\nWe’ll get to those in a moment, but here’s a quick recap of why this is such a difficult discussion.\nAI is complex, and most people don’t understand it.\nIt’s moving fast, so it’s hard to keep track of, and your decisions or assumptions can get overtaken quickly.\nThere’s no single AI: there are lots of different AI that can do different things. Trying to discuss AI as a whole is too big a challenge for most organizations.\nSo it’s OK if you’re struggling: this is hard!\nThe Big Problem: Your Leadership Spoiler: AI probably isn’t the biggest issue here.\nThe biggest challenge is that decision-making in most businesses is far too slow. Many organizations – even relatively small ones – cannot make effective decisions in a meaningful timeframe. When something is as consequential and moving as quickly as AI, they won’t be able to keep up.\nSo while I’m not suggesting that businesses act hastily, they need to move with deliberate speed.\nSo how should you consider what AI means for their business, customers, and staff?\nSome High-Level Considerations Given the difficulty of this issue, I’ve identified a few considerations to help facilitate the decision-making.\nDoing Nothing is OK Doing nothing isn’t the same as ignoring the problem. Doing nothing is OK, but only as long as that is a conscious decision. Keep in mind that there will be some businesses, particularly some small businesses, that don’t need an AI strategy. Even some big companies might not need an AI strategy right now. The important thing is that doing nothing is a conscious decision, not the result of burying your head in the sand.\nTake Baby Steps There’s lots of low-hanging fruit concerning AI, so start small. It’s easy to try tools that will help improve people’s writing, generate images, or develop code. Employing these low-level tools doesn’t mean you have to turn over the running of the entire business to a robot.\nHere’s a simple example.\nI recently added an AI-powered chatbot to my websites. It uses my books as a knowledge base to answer questions on risk and crisis. So instead of hoping that ChatGPT will give people the right answer, I can be confident of the answers it’s going to give.\nWith Staff, It’s ‘And’, Not ‘Or’ I think asking whether we have AI or people is the wrong question. There will be some jobs, probably those done by very low-skilled office staff, that AI can do better. However, the real benefit is that we have AI plus people, AIXP: AI plus expertise. That way, we get the judgment and oversight that we really need because these models aren’t infallible, and they can’t show empathy or exercise human-level judgment. I think using AI as an efficiency tool to augment the experience of individuals is the most significant opportunity for most businesses.\nAnd for lower-skilled staff, instead of thinking about layoffs, we should think about how we retrain our staff to guide the AI and work effectively with others. Surely a much more fulfilling career than mindless busy work?\nIf you’re wondering what AI means for your job, I wrote a piece on that here\nYou’re In Control Remember, the AI does what you tell it to do. That means it’s tough for the AI to run amok unless you’ve allowed it to run amok. It’s also very difficult for the AI to come up with offensive or crude comments unless you’ve trained it that this is OK.\nSo remember, you can use AI within boundaries: you don’t have to let it take over control of your entire business.\nYou Can Roll This Back And finally, you can always turn it off. The idea that AI will somehow embed itself in every computer and we as humans will be unable to extract it is absurd. That will only happen if we let it and, again, we have agency. Therefore, you can add AI to a process and if it doesn’t work, turn it off or change it.\nAnd again, you can commit incrementally. AI adoption is another business strategy, and, like any other strategy, if it doesn’t work, you can change it or abandon it.\nBusiness’s New BFF (from Dall.E)\nThe Two Big Questions Hopefully, these considerations help take some of the heat out of the decision-making, but when it’s time to address the issue, what should you ask?\nThere are two big questions that every business should be asking, both of which relate to the core of your business.\nWhat Do We Do That Is Challenged by AI? Anything you do that could be improved by AI is a challenge. So if you process data for companies, AI is a challenge. Businesses could build their own tools to process and analyze their data. Or someone else could roll- out a better, faster AI-first tool.\nHowever, it’s hard for businesses to build their own tools, and you’re just as able to add AI to your services. So, in this case, it’s a challenge that you could meet. Whether you want to or not depends on your business, but the important thing is that you are challenged by AI, not defeated by it.\nWhat Do We Do That is Killed by AI? Unfortunately, some work will be rendered obsolete by AI, and if that’s your business, you will struggle in the long term.\nThink about Fiverr and Upwork: both platforms specialize in providing fast, cheap, low-level work (I know there are highly skilled people there, but these are the homes of the $5 logo in an hour.) Canva was a big enough challenge to graphic designers on these platforms, but AI tools are faster, cheaper, and often better. But it’s not only the individuals who lose out; so will the platforms. They will lose the commissions they take from thousands of small transactions daily.\n(I also suspect that the big consultancies, which rely upon selling lots of low-level consultants’ time to firms, are going to face a big challenge. Why would I pay thousands of dollars for someone’s junior analyst when I have a model that does that same for pennies.)\nSo if AI makes the core of your business obsolete, you need to address that issue ASAP. This is different from being challenged by AI, where you can incorporate it into your business. In this case, AI is going to kill your business.\nAgain, what you do will depend upon your business: you might be able to move upmarket, provide very specialized services, or pivot. There will be options, but you need to identify those fast.\nWhatever you Do, Ask the Questions In both cases, the question comes back to the core of your business and does AI challenge that or kill it?\nBut even though this is a pressing issue, don’t be too hasty: hasty, kneejerk decisions probably kill as many businesses as deferred or delayed ones. But there is a need to move quickly and ask, ‘So what does AI mean for us?’\nThen, even if the answer is ‘do nothing,’ you still have made an active choice*, not just waited for events to overtake you.\n*As always, Rush said it better.\nPowered by beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/08/15/how-businesses-can-plan-for-ai/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eLots of businesses are wondering what AI means for them, and it’s essential that companies have an AI strategy, even if that strategy is to do nothing. But even if the answer is ‘do nothing,’ you can only get there by asking the ‘what if’ questions first.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut what are those questions?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe’ll get to those in a moment, but here’s a quick recap of why this is such a difficult discussion.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How Businesses Can Plan for AI"},{"content":"Risk and Security Managers Positive on AI Last week, I had a great session with ASIS at the AI for Risk and Security Managers webinar. As part of the session, I outlined the three questions organizations should ask themselves concerning AI and how it affects their business.\nHow could AI give us an advantage?\nHow could AI challenge our business?\nHow could AI threaten or kill our business?\n(Read the full article here to give you the context of the questions and some additional considerations.)\nWe polled the audience as follows and got some very encouraging results.\nUsing these three criteria, how do you think AI will most affect your organization? It is most likely to:\nOffer us an advantage – 63.1 %\nChallenge us – 35.4 %\nThreatens us – 1.5 %\nWith over 100 attendees, this was a decent representation, and it’s interesting – and promising – that so few see AI as a threat.\n(The full session is available on-demand here.)\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/08/10/risk-and-security-managers-are-positive-about-ai/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"risk-and-security-managers-positive-on-ai\"\u003eRisk and Security Managers Positive on AI\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLast week, I had a great session with ASIS at the AI for Risk and Security Managers webinar. As part of the session, I outlined the three questions organizations should ask themselves concerning AI and how it affects their business.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHow could AI give us an \u003cstrong\u003eadvantage\u003c/strong\u003e?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHow could AI \u003cstrong\u003echallenge\u003c/strong\u003e our business?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHow could AI \u003cstrong\u003ethreaten or kill\u003c/strong\u003e our business?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(\u003ca href=\"https://prepared.andrewsheves.com/p/businesses-can-plan-ai?utm_source=prepared.andrewsheves.com\u0026amp;utm_medium=newsletter\u0026amp;utm_campaign=risk-and-security-managers-are-positive-about-ai\"\u003eRead the full article here to give you the context of the questions and some additional considerations.\u003c/a\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk and Security Managers are Positive about AI"},{"content":"AI isn’t finally here – it’s been here for a while in everything from the autocorrect on your phone and the recommendations you get on Netflix – but it’s now in the mainstream. And thankfully, we’re having some of the hard conversations we failed to have when other technologies like social media were emerging. These will be long, complicated, and potentially inconclusive discussions, but at least they’re happening.\nClearly, a significant element of the discussion is around what AI means for work, and, as with most things, the answer is a variation of ‘it depends’ because every business and industry will be affected differently.\nWhat Does AI Mean for Your Business? So how can you think about AI with respect to your work?\nI’ve put together some questions you can ask as a worker or manager, which might help, but let’s start with a simple definition of AI.\n“First, a short description of what AI is: The application of mathematics and software code to teach computers how to understand, synthesize, and generate knowledge in ways similar to how people do it. “\nFrom Marc Andresson’s essay, ‘Why AI Will Save The World.’\nHow we use this software is wide-ranging and opens up incredible opportunities to do great and terrible things but let’s not lose sight of the fact that, at its heart, it’s software, and we can get it to do what we ask it to.\nSo what questions should you ask to help you determine how you could or should be using this technology at work?\nAI Questions for Everyone Everyone should ask:\nHow can I use AI to make me more effective and efficient?\nWhat’s something AI lets me do that I couldn’t do before?\nUnless you are a carpenter, stonemason, or something similarly artisanal, if you answer ‘nothing’ to either question, you are probably deluding yourself.\nAI Questions for Managers Managers should be asking:\nHow can I make my team more efficient with AI?\nHow can AI improve our quality?\nWhat are the downsides of using AI in our business?\nWhat happens if we don’t use AI in our company?\nHow can AI be used by, assist, or replace staff?\nThe last part of the last question will be uncomfortable for some people, but the reality is that every manager will be looking for efficiencies and advantages wherever possible. At one stage, that was replacing the typing pool with desktop PCs. Then it meant offshoring services to call centers abroad. Today, it means replacing some of your low-skilled workers or contractors with software or robots.\nAI Questions for Early-Career Professionals Anyone early in their career should be asking:\nWhat does AI mean for my chosen career?\nHow must I adapt what I’ve been taught to this new technology?\nWhich of these tools do I need to learn to use most urgently*?\nTheir younger siblings will grow up as ‘AI natives’ in the same way that they’re digital natives, but for now, professionals under 30 should be best placed to adapt to these new technologies. That should make them the group most able to harness these tools and, consequently, the least affected.\nAI Questions for Late-Career Professionals Older workers might be tempted to ignore AI as the lure of the golf course or planning cruises (or whatever else people do when they retire) increasingly dominate their thoughts. After all, they’ll be free of the workplace by the time the disruption hits. However, even though the disruption won’t get those closest to retirement, they might want to think about two things.\nHow can this technology help me capture what I know and share it with others?\nHow can I help shape the narrative around AI adoption for my industry to help those who are coming along behind me?\nAI Questions for Mid-Career Professionals Finally, I think that mid-career professionals need to be moving with the greatest speed with respect to AI. In addition to everything else, the big question they need to be asking is:\nWhat parts of my job can be replaced by AI? (Really, how can I be replaced?)\nAfter 15-20 years at work, these folks are set on a path and can see a relatively straight path toward retirement. Unfortunately, that’s still a decade or two away, and many mid-tier professional jobs will be threatened by AI in that time. Highly-competent experts will still be valued but mid- to low-competence workers – the folks who do most of the professional heavy lifting currently – are highly vulnerable to this disruption.\nProfessions that immediately come to mind are:\nDesigners\nDevelopers\nFinancial analysts\nCopywriters\nVideo editors\nNews reporters\nRisk and intelligence analysts(!)\nRemember that changing careers mid-career is tough (citation: the resounding silence from the 100+ job applications I’ve sent in the last year). So, for many, this could be an ‘adapt or get replaced’ situation. If you think you’re in this group, you should be thinking about these issues long and hard. Actually, forget long: if you’re in this group, you have to think about these matters deeply, urgently, and take action quickly.\nAnd FWIW, I am. Because I’m convinced that a lot of the work I do – writing contingency plans, building and running exercises, conducting risk assessments and analysis – will be done by software very soon. So I’m trying to get ahead of the curve by being the one to build these tools with things like crisisdojo. But the days of spending weeks consulting with a firm to conduct a risk assessment or develop a crisis management plan (CMP) are drawing to a close.\nThe Best of Both Worlds However, it doesn’t need to be all doom and gloom: in fact, mid-career professionals might come out on top. Especially when they are able to work with their AI counterparts.\nHow are you going to work alongside your robot counterpart?\nThey’ll be able to meld years of experience with this new technology to make them incredibly effective. Meanwhile, human judgment, experience, and expertise are still required to get the most out of these systems. This judgment and understanding is something that more tech-savvy junior colleagues will still be developing, so their experience will still be a competitive advantage. But only as long as it’s coupled with some technical ability.\nPowered by beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/08/08/how-ai-will-affect-your-job/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eAI isn’t finally here – it’s been here for a while in everything from the autocorrect on your phone and the recommendations you get on Netflix – but it’s now in the mainstream. And thankfully, we’re having some of the hard conversations we failed to have when other technologies like social media were emerging. These will be long, complicated, and potentially inconclusive discussions, but at least they’re happening.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eClearly, a significant element of the discussion is around what AI means for work, and, as with most things, the answer is a variation of ‘it depends’ because every business and industry will be affected differently.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How AI will Affect Your Job"},{"content":"It’s always tough to answer the question, ‘How much damage does a reputational crisis cause?‘ Unlike a business interruption or accident, the cost of reputational crises is much harder to determine.\nUnfortunately, whether you’re in the early stages of a crisis or trying to get a leadership team to find a preparedness program, ‘How much could this cost?’ is the kind of thing crisis managers get asked all the time.\nIt’s challenging to tie the exact financial effects of a reputational crisis to the event itself, but some recent events in the US provide some quite compelling data. From Axios:\n“Anheuser-Busch InBev is still feeling the reverberations of its April decision to engage transgender social-media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. Boycotts have come at a cost to both its stock and beer sales.\n– The controversy has shaved billions off its market capitalization amid a 20% swoon in its stock (it’s since recovered but sits well below the 52-week high it hit in March).\n– This week, NielsenIQ data from consulting firm Bump Williams showed Bud Light losing its perch as America’s most imbibed brew to Constellation Brands’ Modelo.\nSeparately, both Kohl’s and Target have been caught in the cultural maelstrom for selling LGBTQ-themed clothing, with right-leaning protests pressuring their stock prices.”\nAxios – ‘The financial toll of right-wing backlash: At least $28B in market value’, June 16, 2023 link\nFrom the Axios article\nThe specifics of these events are less important than the clear link they show between a reputational crisis and a financial hit. This kind of polarization seems pretty unique to America, so you might not experience this exact situation with your organization. However, this is some useful data to have to hand when you’re next asked the ‘how much damage could this cause’ question.\n(Meanwhile, if you are in America, you need to consider the kinds of social issues you might face. Some of these will be issues you’ll get pulled into; others will be because of things you’ve done or said. There will be times when you get hit by a crisis because you didn’t say anything. These are complex challenges that will only become more acute and intense, particularly in the run-up to the election in 2024.)\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/08/04/the-cost-of-crisis/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIt’s always tough to answer the question, ‘How much damage does a reputational crisis cause?‘ Unlike a business interruption or accident, the cost of reputational crises is much harder to determine.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately, whether you’re in the early stages of a crisis or trying to get a leadership team to find a preparedness program, ‘How much could this cost?’ is the kind of thing crisis managers get asked all the time.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Cost of Crisis"},{"content":"I wrote this on a beautiful sunny morning last week, sitting on the Isle of Skye, enjoying the sun washing over the mountains with a fresh coffee and a copy of business continuity principles.\nDifferent day, different highland view, but you get the idea\nOK, so I enjoyed the sunrise, mountains, and coffee a little more than the business continuity guide, but it was nice to refamiliarize myself with business continuity management (BCM) again.\nUnfortunately, just like all standards, the language and concepts are sometimes a bit twisted and hard to digest: the last thing an already busy team needs to deal with. So I’m working on a set of simple BCM principles for CrisisDojo, avoiding words like ‘actioanlize’ and ‘robustify’.\nHere are seven core principles that you can use to build resilience in your organization.\nPrioritize People, Systems, and Processes No one likes being told that they’re ‘non-essential’, but when things go wrong, you need to know who or what needs to be back online first. Some parts of the business – audit and governance, for example – might be optional for weeks or months, but your core system and management are needed immediately.\nLike the ‘rule of threes’ for survival (three minutes for air, three days for water, and three weeks for food), think about what’s required within hours, days, and weeks. (The formal name for this process is a Business Impact Assessment or BIA)\nBut to do this effectively, you need to be strict, and your teams need to be honest: otherwise, non-critical systems will take time, attention, and resources away from essential services, and the business will suffer.\nEliminate Single Points of Failure It’s OK for most folks to only have one wrench in their house, but if someone’s a mechanic, that becomes a single point of failure: no wrench, no mechanic. Similar to the prioritization you conduct for people, systems, and processes, think about your business functions and identify any single points of failure.\nThat could be using Slack for all communications, keeping your backups on the same server as your working files, or relying on a single supplier for critical components. Any time you rely on a single person, process, or system, it’s a potential failure point.\nAlso, remember that your suppliers could be creating single points of failure. For example, if you run on AWS and your backup service also uses Amazon, AWS becomes your single point of failure.\nCapture Knowledge Relying on a single person is a particular type of single point of failure, called key-person risk. Train understudies or alternates for any essential personnel to overcome this danger.\nThis is also a great way to train and develop staff and set some succession planning in place.\nDocumenting individual and institutional knowledge and maintaining a clear record of where this information is stored is also essential. And schedule regular reviews to update this information to reflect changes in personnel, systems, or processes.\nDevelop Skills Don’t wait until the day the power goes out to read the manual for your backup generator. Learn how to use your backup systems and train staff in the alternate processes before disaster strikes. Drills and exercises can effectively develop these skills, and you could easily add a business continuity element to a planned crisis exercise.\nAgain, make sure instructions are documented and readily accessible.\nBuild Relationships Beforehand The day your supply chain fails is too late to start looking for new suppliers. Similarly, if you want to move into a shared office, you might need an existing subscription to build on. Remember, you might not be the only company looking for new office space if something goes wrong.\nSo do your homework and build relationships before things go wrong. Maintain an updated list of alternative suppliers and emergency contacts as part of your contingency plan.\nDifferentiate Between Continuity and Recovery Continuity is limping along as best you can using your fall-back system, whereas recovery is getting back to business as usual, even if your new normal looks a little different. Each requires a different approach and a separate plan.\nEnsure you clearly communicate this difference to your team so they understand that the intent is to get everything back to normal ASAP. Some teams will have to split their efforts between continuity management and business recovery and may need additional support or resources to manage this workload.\nStart From a Solid Foundation Finally, business continuity management can’t make up for inefficient day-to-day operations, and a backup of poorly written documentation is still poorly written. So spend some time spring cleaning before you build your business continuity plan.\nYour BIA and risk assessments are good ways to identify any weaknesses, as well as regular audits and operational reviews.\nInformal (but Highly Effective) Remember, these are not ‘official’ business continuity management terms or principles, and you will need to follow something like the Professional Practices in the Business Continuity Institute’s Good Practice Guidelines for formal certification.\nHowever, I hope that by wading through the jargon in the PPs from the BCI GPG, I’ve saved you some time and given you some simple principles you start implementing ASAP.\nThese will put the foundations of a resilient system in place quickly, and these all align with the elements of the BCI materials, so when you want to formalize your system, many of the essential elements will already be in place. Most importantly, your organization will be better able to withstand an interruption, get services back online, and get back to serving your clients.\nOh, and if you were wondering how this falls under the ‘crisis’ umbrella, it’s because any crisis is going to cause some kind of disruption and I thought it was silly to treat crisis management and business continuity management completely separately. So the contingency plans in CrisisDojo will also include a business continuity section.\n(And don’t worry if you’ve already built your crisis management plan, I’ll be sending you a simple form where you can add the necessary details to build the business continuity management section as soon as this is released.)\nLearn more as crisisdojo.ai or click the log below to create a free app account and the scenario generator\nPowered by beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/08/02/business-continuity-in-a-nutshell/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI wrote this on a beautiful sunny morning last week, sitting on the Isle of Skye, enjoying the sun washing over the mountains with a fresh coffee and a copy of business continuity principles.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDifferent day, different highland view, but you get the idea\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOK, so I enjoyed the sunrise, mountains, and coffee a little more than the business continuity guide, but it was nice to refamiliarize myself with business continuity management (BCM) again.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Business Continuity in a Nutshell"},{"content":"\nI’ve moved my courses over to Udemy so if you’re here, it’s likely that you followed an old link. I apologize for the inconvenience but you can find my courses on Udemy here\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/05/11/my-courses-are-now-on-udemy/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/e8990f8c_aa598-screen-shot-2023-05-11-at-14.27.38.png\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’ve moved my courses over to Udemy so if you’re here, it’s likely that you followed an old link. I apologize for the inconvenience but you can \u003ca href=\"https://www.udemy.com/user/andrew-sheves/\"\u003efind my courses on Udemy here\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"My Courses Are Now on Udemy"},{"content":"*Is what people tell me, but here’s why they’re wrong\n“This will never work.” “People won’t trust something so important to an automated process.” “You can’t develop high-quality, professional materials like this without extensive consultation.” “It can’t be done.”\nThese are the things you hear when you make something that’s only been available via expensive professional consultation into an on-demand service.\nExcept these comments aren’t just about CrisisDojo.\nThis is also what the founders of a small start-up heard back in 2001 when they launched their online legal services firm. LegalZoom’s Page in 2001, from the Internet Archive\nIf you’re not in the US, you might not recognize the name, but if you do, you’ll know that LegalZoom is now a household name, trusted by millions, with a market cap of ~$1.7 billion.\nObviously, in their case, it did work.\nPeople were willing to use an automated service for more straightforward legal work, particularly when they couldn’t afford hours and hours of legal fees or were short of time. They could develop high-quality materials without hours of consultation. It could be done.\nAnd I want to do the same for crisis readiness with CrisisDojo. I don’t know if there’s a billion-dollar valuation out there. But I do know there are a lot of organizations that need to prepare for crises and don’t have the time or money they need to use a traditional consultancy. (And frankly, they might not even need that level of customization.)\nBut now they’ve got CrisisDojo to get them on the road to crisis readiness.\nSo even though plenty of folks have said it can’t be done, I’m not inclined to believe them.\nParticularly when I woke up this morning to an email from the first user who simply said it was ‘amazing’.\nWant to try the demo? Click below.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/05/04/this-will-never-work-heres-why-crisisdojo-will-fail/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*\u003cem\u003eIs what people tell me, but here’s why they’re wrong\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“This will never work.”\n“People won’t trust something so important to an automated process.”\n“You can’t develop high-quality, professional materials like this without extensive consultation.”\n“It can’t be done.”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese are the things you hear when you make something that’s only been available via expensive professional consultation into an on-demand service.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eExcept these comments aren’t just about \u003ca href=\"https://crisisdojo.decis.ai?utm_source=blog\"\u003eCrisisDojo\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis is also what the founders of a small start-up heard back in 2001 when they launched their online legal services firm. \u003c/p\u003e","title":"“This will never work. Here’s Why CrisisDojo Will Fail”*"},{"content":"I want to share a simple framework for crisis response. But, if you’re a crisis management professional or corporate communicator, you need to take a deep breath before you read this.\nYou’ll want to tell me that you can’t simplify crisis response. You’ll want to tell me, ‘It’s not exactly like the standard’. You’ll want to tell me that this won’t work for your big clients. I understand these concerns, so there’s no need to email me and tell me why I’m wrong.\nBut here’s the thing: this framework isn’t really for you. You’ve already got your own tools and templates, and your big clients have a ‘bespoke’ plan that you built for them using the relevant standard.\nA Simple Framework For Crisis Management This approach might be wrong for you, but if you’re part of a smaller organization – firms I’m calling SBMs: small but mighty businesses – you need a simple framework for crisis response. Something robust, clear, jargon-free, and logical.\nSomething like this.\nAll crises move through these seven steps: acknowledge, mobilize, understand, tackle, communicate, resolve and learn. The framework tracks this progression and indicates what you should focus on at each stage. Some steps take longer than others. You’ll repeat some steps in a longer event (note the circles between Understand – Tackle – Communicate?). But overall, this is how your response to a crisis should play out.\nThis is the framework I’m using to build the CrisiDojo crisis management plans (CMP), and it’s working well: the structure is easy to understand, and each step is distinct from the others, helping you establish a process, know where you are, and what you should be doing.\n*Above all, it’s based on simple, clear concepts and ideas. Because when things are already difficult and complex, the last thing you want to layer on top is a complicated process that’s difficult to use. Instead, you need something simple that creates an environment conducive to high-quality decision-making and taking action. *\nThe Six Things Remember, the CMP isn’t to give you the answer to every situation or explain precisely what to do in each situation: it’s to tell you how to set things up so you can work out the solution yourself. So the plan is there to help you get six things right: Get the right people, with the right information, in the right place, at the right time, with the right resources to solve the right problem(s).\nThat’s what every CMP should do. It’s just that plans can get a bit out of hand and become unwieldy because there’s a tendency to make things too complex. But that’s not necessary. The Foundation for Success Isn’t Your Page Count Something simple is fine because the quality and success of your response aren’t based on the page count of the CMP. Success is determined by the quality of the decisions and the speed at which the organization can execute them.\nSo the trick is to ensure that the CMP is an enabler, not a hindrance.\nThat means keeping it simple and straightforward.\nYou can see more of the CrisisDojo plan builder and try the free demo here\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/04/25/a-simple-crisis-management-plan-framework/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI want to share a simple framework for crisis response. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut, if you’re a crisis management professional or corporate communicator, you need to take a deep breath before you read this.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eYou’ll want to tell me that you can’t simplify crisis response.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eYou’ll want to tell me, ‘It’s not exactly like the standard’.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eYou’ll want to tell me that this won’t work for your big clients.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI understand these concerns, so there’s no need to email me and tell me why I’m wrong.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Simple Crisis Management Plan Framework"},{"content":"Welcome to the Friday, April 14, 2023\nI’m on the road today, so it’s a Dragnet edition: just the key metrics today. If this is your first time receiving this email, greetings! These SITREPS (situation reports) contain updates on critical events and essential metrics for you to use in your decision-making. There’s a guide here and a detailed white paper about the small data approach to risk assessment here.\nOn to the numbers.\nKey Metrics 90-Day Relative Values ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\n21-Day Trends ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\nOil (Brent Crude) Brent Crude is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Iron and Steel are high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased sharply over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Wheat is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nShipping (FBX) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nElection Watch 30 April: Paraguay, President, Senate and Chamber of Deputies That’s it! Sorry for the short note today.\nDisclaimer\nThese SITREPS are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Comments or observations are my own and do not reflect the opinions of any firms I am associated with. The sources from which the metrics are derived are obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, however due to the possibility of human and mechanical error or other factors, Andrew Sheves / Tarjuman LLC is not responsible for any errors or omissions.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/04/14/sitrep-for-friday-april-14-2023/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWelcome to the  Friday, April 14, 2023\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’m on the road today, so it’s a Dragnet edition: just the key metrics today. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eIf this is your first time receiving this email, greetings! These SITREPS (situation reports) contain updates on critical events and essential metrics for you to use in your decision-making. There’s a guide \u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/dcdr-research-users-guide-draft/\"\u003ehere\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e and a detailed white paper about the small data approach to risk assessment \u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://www.dropbox.com/s/5emyea3afc0dv33/Risk%20Metrics%20Wite%20Paper%3AA%20Small%20Data%20Approach%20to%20Risk%20Analysis%20DRAFT%2012_13_2022%20%281%29.pdf?dl=0\"\u003ehere\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn to the numbers.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"SITREP for Friday, April 14, 2023"},{"content":"A great exercise presents participants with a near-real environment that will apply stress to them, their plans, and their processes. Like a good gym session, they’ll finish tired, and a few things might be sore, but they’ll be better, stronger, and faster not long afterward.\nHowever, it’s just as easy to put together a training session that leaves everyone hurt, confused, anxious, and feeling less prepared.\nSo how can we deliver a great exercise? One that will make a team much more crisis ready by the end?\nEverything starts with thorough planning, so it’s essential that you carefully scope and plan the exercise from the outset. (If you aren’t sure what’s involved in planning a simulation, I’ve written a guide here.)\nBut let’s say you’ve done all that, and the exercise is now a few days away. What should you be doing as the exercise lead (the person responsible for delivery)?\nYou might be surprised to hear that my view is that you should be preparing to do as little as possible.\nThe Garfield Approach This might be the first blog post to tell you to be lazy, but that’s exactly the mindset I’d like you to adopt for exercise day. Ask yourself, ‘how can I do as little as possible once the exercise starts?’\nFor me, the ideal is only to have to make two calls during the whole exercise: one to start things off and one to end it.\nNow, I may have other roles on the day – maybe I’m observing a team or also acting as exercise controller – but as exercise lead, I want to do next to nothing once things kick off.\nThe reason for this is simple: I’ve learned that you can’t control an exercise. Moreover, if you try to, you’ll spoil the experience for the participants. Think about it: how can you teach a team to respond to realistic inputs and practice high-level decision-making if someone is guiding, interrupting, and nudging them the whole way through?\nSo instead of trying to maintain an iron grip on the whole thing (which is sometimes called railroading – there’s only one way through the exercise, and participants are forced to follow that track), you need to create a space for the participants to play in.\nAnd you create that space well in advance, not while the exercise is underway.\nCreating the Conditions for Success (and Sloth) Notably, that space you create isn’t infinite: in fact, there are strict boundaries in place, and participants don’t have complete freedom of action.\nBut you create the illusion that they do. That takes some work, but it’s much easier than you think if you prepare appropriately. Here’s how.\nHave a Solid Foundation. A lot has already gone into exercise planning: you’ve made sure that the scenario is realistic, the style and tempo of exercise are appropriate, and that they’ll hit the training objectives. You’ve also spent a fair amount of time ensuring the logistics are in place. That way, you have a sound plan for the exercise, and all the support and resources you need are lined up. Prepare your team. Gather your team and conduct a ‘page-turn’ where you review the entire exercise instruction. Start by discussing what needs to happen a few hours before the exercise start (STARTEX) and walk everyone through to the end of the hot debrief. Ensure they know where they need to be, what they need to do, and that they understand their role. Answer any questions and identify any last-minute kinks to iron out. Do this a few days before the exercise so you have time to make adjustments. All exercise staff need to attend except roleplayers, who the Exercise Controller can brief before the exercise starts. This is the first of two rehearsals. Check the technology and logistics. The second rehearsal is a tech rehearsal: a full check of all the systems and technology you’ll rely on during the exercise. Phones, conference rooms (physical and virtual), video inputs, network access: check them all. You don’t need everyone for this; usually it’s the exercise lead, the controller, and someone from the participant’s side. Have a similar check-in with the admin point of contact to ensure all the logistics are in place for the exercise. Again, do these checks a day or so out so you have time to fix any problems.\nBrief the participants. Make sure you’ve issued joining instructions to explain the schedule for the day, the exercise objectives, what they need to do beforehand, and where they should go that day. You may want to give them some hint of the kind of event they’ll face very generally, but that depends on the team. There are pros and cons either way, so it’s a judgment call on your part. (Whatever you do, don’t give anyone a brief on the whole scenario. This almost always damages the exercise in some way – for them and for you – so this foreknowledge is counterproductive.)\nTroubleshoot with the exercise controller. Running through the whole day with the exercise controller and asking each other ‘what if…?’ is where you really set the conditions for success. This session isn’t to fix problems – you should have done that by now – but to make sure that you’re both clear on where the boundaries are, how you can identify when the participants are getting close or off track, and how you can steer them back towards their objectives. Remember, this isn’t the first time you’ve reviewed the scenario – you did something similar once the exercise chronology was drafted. But this final check-in is where you assure yourselves that no matter what happens, you can give the participants the best chance of success.\nLo and behold, that gives us a five-step listicle of how to run a great crisis exercise.\nScope and plan the exercise thoroughly. Brief your team in detail. Check the technology and logistics. Brief the participants Play ‘what if’ with the controller. Unfortunately, there’s one other element and it’s harder to pull off.\nSit Back and Relax Donovan: You don’t seem alarmed. *Abel: Would it help? * Tom hanks (Donovan) to Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies\nIn the movie Bridge of Spies, Hank’s character is surprised that Rusian spy Rudolf Abel, played by Mark Rylance, seems unconcerned as they wait to hear Abel’s sentence for espionage. But, as Abel points out, there’s little he can do to alter the course of events now.\nNow I’m not advocating spying on the US, but I am suggesting that you adopt a similar mindset when the exercise kicks off. Not only will worrying and interfering not help, but it will actively make things worse (believe me, I’ve tried it). Trying to interrupt and get participants to do the ‘right’ thing will spoil the exercise and teach them the wrong lessons. They need to be allowed the freedom to operate within your boundaries.\nSo instead of worrying, you need to trust the scenario, your team, and the participants and let things roll. You’ll still be plenty busy: evaluating how the participants respond, checking how their procedures hold up, and gathering feedback. And if you see somehting that you feel isn’t going ‘right’, let it run and bring up the observation in the debrief. Or, if something’s truly threatening the exercise, alert the controller so they can steer things back on track via a realistic inject.\nDon’t get me wrong, this is hard, particularly when you’re running your first few exercises. The feeling of a lack of control can be scary and things can get messy if you haven’t built strong enough boundaries and created thoughtful course corrections. In that case, you can still step in and put things back on track if necessary. But that’s like hearing the director whispering someone’s lines to them in a play: it keeps things moving but breaks the spell. And an exercise isn’t a rehearsed play with a set script. There must be lots of freedom, improvisation, and several ways the participants can reach their objectives. When you create that kind of experience, then you’ll be running great crisis exercises. But first, you need to learn to relax (and channel your inner Garfield).\nThis article is the second in a series on crisis exercises. Read the first – How to Plan a Great Crisis Exercise – here.\nAnd if you’re serious about getting crisis ready quickly, check out CrisisDojo: it’s a full-suite of crisis planning tools that gets you crisis ready in a fraction of the time normal programs take.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/04/11/how-to-run-a-great-crisis-exercise/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eA great exercise presents participants with a near-real environment that will apply stress to them, their plans, and their processes. Like a good gym session, they’ll finish tired, and a few things might be sore, but they’ll be better, stronger, and faster not long afterward.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, it’s just as easy to put together a training session that leaves everyone hurt, confused, anxious, and feeling less prepared.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo how can we deliver a great exercise? One that will make a team much more crisis ready by the end?\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How To Run a Great Crisis Exercise"},{"content":"Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, April 7, 2023.\nIt’s Passover, Easter, and Ramadan this week so a good number of you will be celebrating this weekend. (And if none of those is your thing, today is also National Beer Day. )\nChag Pesach Sameach, Happy Easter, رمَضَان كريم , and cheers (delete as necessary)\nBut before you slack off for the weekend, let’s catch you up on some important goings on.\nIf this is your first time receiving this email, greetings! These SITREPS (situation reports) contain updates on critical events and essential metrics for you to use in your decision-making. There’s a guide here and a detailed white paper about the small data approach to risk assessment here.\nLet’s go.\nAll (Diplomatic) Roads Lead to Beijing Part I It’s been a busy week for Beijing’s diplomats. First, they hosted the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers, the first face-to-face meeting for the regional rivals since their agreement to re-establish diplomatic ties last month. From CNN:\nChina’s top diplomat Wang Yi called the agreement a “victory for dialogue and a victory for peace,” and framed it as part of China’s “constructive role in facilitating the proper settlement of hot-spot issues around the world,” according to a statement from China’s Foreign Ministry in March when the deal was announced.\nOn Thursday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Beijing will continue to work to improve relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.\n“China is ready to continue to play an active role in mediation, support the two sides in increasing their relations, realize good-neighborly friendship and contribute Chinese wisdom and strength to the security, stability and development of the Middle East region,” Mao said during a regular press conference.\nAny move to ease tensions in the region is welcome but the view that this is the end of US influence in the region is premature. Saudi, like many other regional states, maintains a significant US military presence and benefits from access to US military hardware. So while this current round of peacemaking is Beijing-centric, this is a signal of a new multi-polar Middle East, not the end of US involvement. Nevertheless, anyone operating in the region should now consider how China’s growing influence may affect their business and relationships.\n(See CNN for more.)\nAll (Diplomatic) Roads Lead to Beijing Part II Meanwhile, EU President von der Leyen and French President Macron were also in Beijing to meet with President Xi on a range of issues, not least the war in Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron review troops during an official ceremony at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, China, April 6, 2023. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes\nFrom Reuters: France said the discussions between the leaders were “frank and constructive,” while China described them as “friendly” and “in-depth”…\n*“It was interesting to hear that President Xi reiterated his willingness to speak” to Zelenskiy, Von der Leyen said, calling his words “positive”. Xi said a conversation could happen when the “conditions and time are right”, she added. *\nBeijing’s previous peace proposal was dismissed out of hand by Kyiv and Washington, so it is interesting to hear President Xi’s offer to speak to President Zelensky. Whether or not Beijing can effectively mediate in this conflict remains unclear but XI’s growing importance as a global actor is in no doubt. (See Reuters for more.)\nAssad Back in From The Cold The trip to Beijing isn’t Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan’s only travel this month as he is also expected to be in Damascus soon to invite Syrian President Bashar al Assad to the upcoming Arab League Summit. Al Assad’s attendance at the May 19 meeting would fully cement his return to the regional community of leaders after several months of increasingly high-profile regional visits. (See Middle East Eye for more.)\nDespite Syria’s brutal civil war, triggered by al-Assad’s brutal crackdown in the wake of the Arab Spring over a decade ago, he and his family seem to have emerged with their power intact and enormous wealth. (See the FT for more.) Their stranglehold on the country, including its industrial and construction industries plus its NGO community, means that any trade or relief effort in Syria will be almost impossible to conduct without dealing with the al Assads, directly or indirectly. While US and Western sanctions remain in place, this could place many regional companies and organizations in a difficult position: their government may be keen to normalize relations with Damascus but any trade with Syria could breach sanction rules, complicating relations with Europe and the US. Organizations operating regionally should keep track of these developments to avoid inadvertently contravening US and Western sanctions.\nOPEX+ Production Cuts The OPEC+ oil cartel announced production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) last Sunday, causing oil prices to spike over the last few days. However, this might not have as much of a long-term effect as it first appears, as the cut seems to have been in response to the recognition that there’s an oversupply in oil markets, rather than an attempt to push prices higher. The oversupply seems to be due to three elements: sanctions against Moscow haven’t dampened Russia’s output as much as had been expected; the demand caused by China’s economic reopening is less than expected, and Beijing had already stockpiled crude in advance of the damned increase: and overall demand is down as inflation and worries about a recession curb manufacturing and consumption.\nBrent Futures Over the Last Month. From Bloomberg\nHowever, crystal-ball gazing with respect to crude prices is beyond my abilities so I won’t offer any commentary on what might happen next, but there are some interesting perspectives here, here and here.\nOn to the numbers.\nKey Metrics 90-Day Relative Values ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\n21-Day Trends ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\nOil (Brent Crude) Brent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Iron and Steel is low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased sharply over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Wheat is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nShipping (FBX) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nElection Watch Finnish President Sanna Marin’s Social Democratic Party lost last weekend’s elections, ceding control to the more pro-business, harder-right National Coalition Party (NCP). This will make little difference internationally, and the election was coincidental with the final stages of Finland’s acceptance into NATO, but will likely change the domestic landscape. (See Reuters for more.)\n30 April: Paraguay, President, Senate and Chamber of Deputies 7 May: Thailand, Parliament Palate Cleansers Larry the Cat on Twitter\nExcellent summary of Dave Allen’s GTD system from ExcelHumor\nThat’s it for this week. See you again on Tuesday for some more on crisis readiness. All my best\nAndrew\nPS – If you’re serious about getting crisis ready, but are time, budget or resource-starved, you should take a look at CrisisDojo. It’s set of tools I’ve built that makes getting crisis-ready something you can do in hours and days, not months. Let CrisisDojo do the heavy lifting so you can concentrate on building a resilient organization. Learn more and join the waitlist at crisisdojo.ai\nDisclaimer\nThese SITREPS are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Comments or observations are my own and do not reflect the opinions of any firms I am associated with. The sources from which the metrics are derived are obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, however due to the possibility of human and mechanical error or other factors, Andrew Sheves / Tarjuman LLC is not responsible for any errors or omissions.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/04/07/sitrep-for-friday-april-7-2023/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWelcome to the SITREP for Friday, April 7, 2023.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s Passover, Easter, and Ramadan this week so a good number of you will be celebrating this weekend. (And if none of those is your thing, today is also \u003ca href=\"https://www.daysoftheyear.com/days/beer-day/\"\u003eNational Beer Day\u003c/a\u003e. )\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eChag Pesach Sameach, Happy Easter, رمَضَان كريم , and cheers (delete as necessary)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut before you slack off for the weekend, let’s catch you up on some important goings on.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"SITREP for Friday, April 7, 2023"},{"content":"Welcome to the SITREP for March 31, 2023\nWe’re on a mini-vacation in Europe this week, so it’s a Dragnet edition today: just the facts!\nBy the way, if you haven’t signed up for the CrisisDojo waitlist, you’re already missing out. The waitlist folks already got a sneak peek at the crisis standard builder and got a chance to build a 20-page, formal crisis management standard, just by answering a few simple questions. Best of all, the whole process took minutes, not weeks.\nLearn more about CrisisDojo and get on the waitlist here CrisisDojo is changing the way organizations prepare for crises\nLet’s get on to the numbers.\n—–\nIf this is your first time receiving this email, greetings! These SITREPS (situation reports) contain updates on critical events and essential metrics for you to use in your decision-making. There’s a guide here and a detailed white paper about the small data approach to risk assessment here.\n—–\nKey Metrics 90-Day Relative Values ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\n21-Day Trends ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\nOil (Brent Crude) Brent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Iron and Steel are mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased sharply over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Wheat is low for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nShipping (FBX) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nElection Watch 2 April: Finland, Parliament 30 April: Paraguay, President, Senate and Chamber of Deputies Palate Cleanser We went to see the Vermeer exhibition here in Amsterdam. The pictures are amazing, but a lot of the time, what you see is this. You can see why kids hate museums and galleries… Photo Nick Dupree\nDisclaimer\nThese SITREPS are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Comments or observations are my own and do not reflect the opinions of any firms I am associated with. The sources from which the metrics are derived are obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, however due to the possibility of human and mechanical error or other factors, Andrew Sheves / Tarjuman LLC is not responsible for any errors or omissions.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/31/sitrep-for-march-31-2023/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWelcome to the SITREP for March 31, 2023\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe’re on a mini-vacation in Europe this week, so it’s a Dragnet edition today: just the facts!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy the way, if you haven’t signed up for the CrisisDojo waitlist, you’re already missing out. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe waitlist folks already got a sneak peek at the crisis standard builder and got a chance to build a 20-page, formal crisis management standard, just by answering a few simple questions.  \u003c/p\u003e","title":"SITREP for March 31, 2023"},{"content":"Exercises are an essential part of skills development and, for things like emergencies and crises, the only way to build these skills outside of an actual event, events that are thankfully few and far between. But creating a successful exercise takes a lot of work and planning – you can’t just throw some problems at a group of people and hope they’ll learn from the experience.\nSo how do you plan a great crisis exercise?\nScope the Exercise This is the most important part of the whole process. If you don’t scope the exercise out clearly to begin with, you won’t be successful: in some cases, you can even make things worse. Scoping the exercise requires you to consider the following:\n• Participants. Who’s involved and what is their level of experience?\n•** The development objectives**. What needs to be learned or improved and are you familiarizing, practicing or testing? Are you skills-building or practicing a scenario-specific response?\n• Tempo and intensity. For example, a low-intensity tabletop is better for familiarizing a new team with a plan. In contrast, an experienced team would need a high-intensity simulation to practice all elements of their response.\n• Secondary objectives and sensitivities. Is there a new head of Comms who’s worried about their ‘debut’ in front of the management team? Was there a recent event that might make people sensitive to particular inputs or events?You won’t write these into the scope, but you should keep these at the back of your mind.\n**• Constraints. **Any deadlines, budget, or geographical constraints that might affect how you build the exercise.\nWith all this in mind, you can write the scope or terms of reference (TOR) for the training. Here’s an example for Frank’s Coffee, an imaginary chain of coffee shops.\nFrank’s Coffee – Example Background and context. Frank’s Coffee recently updated its crisis management plan (CMP) and all potential crisis management team (CMT) members need to be familiarized with the new plan. The CMP update was required due to shortfalls in the old plan, highlighted in the poor response to the supply chain interruptions last year. The company wants to review its response to this kind of event, given that there are concerns that there are still weaknesses in its global supply chain.\nPurpose and learning objectives.\nA low-intensity simulation exercise will be used to:\n1. Familiarize all CMT members with the new CMP.\n2. Practice the response to a supply chain interruption.\n3. Test the new mobilization and call-out process.\nParticipants.\nThe Frank’s Coffee CMT, Crisis Communication Team, and Logistics team will participate in the exercise. Other staff are available to act as roleplayers, as are two Board members.\nProspective dates\nThe exercise will take place on July 15th from 0900 – 1200. Two, 2-hour training sessions have been scheduled on July 14th for training.\nLocation\nThe CMT will assemble at the Frank’s Coffee main office in Boulder. The Logistics team will join remotely from their offices in Miami.\nThere would be some additional admin to agree, but a brief like this should be sufficient to plan your exercise.\nPlan the exercise Planning the exercise has already begun as you’ve established the general scenario, learning objectives, and who’s participating. You’ve also agreed on the type and intensity of the exercise. Now, you need to add these details to your framework.\nI find that the best way to think of an exercise is like a play of three or four acts. Within each act, participants are fed information through a series of exercise inputs that update them on the situation or require them to do something.\n• Act One – The introduction. This act introduces all the participants and establishes the setting and general context of the exercise. This is usually a relatively short act, but it sets the scene and tone for everything that follows. If you need to practice mobilization and call out, this happens here.\n• Act Two – The Challenge. This is where our participants are presented with a set of challenges to overcome. Most of the exercise activity will happen here. The inputs will add more and more detail to the situation as the exercise advances.\n• Act Three – The Dilemma (optional). Once most of the response is underway, you can introduce a twist for more experienced teams, particularly senior ones. This is not to catch them out or trip them up but rather to allow them to practice nimble thinking and adapt to the kind of changes that they would encounter for real.\n• Act Four – The Resolution. Always try to end on a high and allow the participants to feel they have succeeded. Otherwise, the feeling will be that they aren’t ready or their CMP is not fit for purpose. There might be a lot of lessons learned from the exercise to work on, but still try to end on a high by allowing them to wrap up the immediate issues they’ve tackled in the exercise.\nBuilding an exercise on top of this framework is then just a matter of mapping the objectives to the acts and preparing a scenario that will allow you to move from start to finish.\nIf you’re serious about preparing for crises, check out CrisisDojo. It’s a unique blend of experience and technology, bringing you the tools you need to get crisis-ready in days, not months.\nTry CrisisDojo today\nYour work is complicated and fast-moving. You need a way to prepare for crises today not months from now.\nYou need CrisisDojo\nWriting the Scenario Before you write the scenario, remember you need to be objectives-led, not scenario-led. By this, I mean that the exercise is a vehicle to allow the participants to achieve their objectives: not something where they’re forced to follow the scenario and hope they hit their objectives along the way.\nStart by researching the kind of event you want to use, in the case of Frank’s Coffee, a supply chain event. A quick Google search will probably turn up some examples of Starbucks or Juan Valdez having similar issues, so use these to give you a general sense of how these start, develop and wrap up. You’ll also get an idea of how long things run for and the kinds of external issues (e.g., from regulators, stakeholders, and the media) that can crop up.\nThen, you put this into a rough timeline and lay that over your three or four acts. From here, you need to write inputs to move the story along. Generally, these are four types of input.\n**• Situation updates **provide information on what’s happening. These need to be unambiguous to avoid confusion. If you need to update the situation (which is what would occur in reality), make it clear that the old information was wrong and that the ‘truth’ has been updated. Don’t try to throw in too many red herrings, as you’ll derail the exercise.\n• Directions to prompt an activity. This could be a regulator’s letter demanding an update or a request from a Board member for a briefing.\n• Noise to simulate some of the confusion that they’d experience in reality. These should be ‘more of the same’, reflecting what they have learned from the major updates. Make sure that the contents of these inputs do not alter the course of events.\n• Course corrections to steer them back on track if they get too far away from the main scenario. You’ll have these prepared and ready to drop in if the teams get distracted or too far off course.\nThink about who or where the input will come from and the format. These could be simulated media clips, emails, or phone calls. Use your roleplayers to deliver these realistically.\nImportantly, once you have drafted the exercises, read through the whole exercise and ask yourself:\n• Are the objectives clear?\n• Does the chronology include inputs to meet these objectives?\n• Do you have contingencies to steer participants back to the main events pathway?\n• Have you checked the technical aspects with an SME?\n• Do you know the kinds of roleplayers you need to deliver this scenario?\n• Do you have the resources to create\n• the inputs required?\nThat will ensure your scenario holds together, that you meet the objectives, and that you’ll be able to build and deliver the inputs required.\nDon’t Forget About the Logistics No matter how good your scenario, an exercise will collapse if the necessary logistics aren’t in place. These include:\n• Transport to and from the exercise site.\n• Accommodation for travelers.\n• Access to the exercise site for contractors or visitors.\n• Access to IT systems and networks.\n• Access to printers and photocopiers.\n• Phones and an exercise phone \u0026amp; email directory.\n• Meeting rooms (physical or virtual) for all participants, support teams, and exercise control.\n• Stationery, copies of plans, phone charges, and power strips.\n• Food and refreshments.\nStaffing and Preparations Even a small exercise requires several people to pull it off successfully. Some will see the event through from start to finish, whereas others are only required on the day.\n•** Exercise Lead. **The exercise lead is responsible for the successful delivery of the exercise. Their work starts with the scoping discussions and ends when the final report is submitted. They will typically also be the observer with the senior team or the team the exercise is focused on.\n**• Exercise Controller. **The controller is the deputy to the Exercise Lead and will be heavily involved in developing the materials. They run the exercise on the day and manage the inputs and roleplayers.\n**• Observers. **Each participating team should have an observer who will assess their performance, answer questions (if appropriate), and send feedback to exercise control if adjustments are required.\n**• Roleplayers. **Roleplayers add realism to the exercises by acting as stakeholders, relatives, partners, or other relevant parties. They will make calls to deliver inputs or could play parts in the exercise, such as a journalist or Board member.\n**• Subject Matter Expert. **Technical exercises need an SME to help with exercise development. They should also be in exercise control on the day, acting as a roleplayer and helping adjust the scenario if necessary.\n**• Technical support, admin support, and runners. **Things can and will go wrong, so know who you can contact if you need admin and technical support. I like to have technical support around for the hour before and after the exercise starts but they can be on call after that. For larger, more complex exercises with multiple teams, it can be helpful to have someone who can ‘run’ between teams to move paperwork or messages or even shift equipment. It’s not a glorious role, but it can often save the day\nNo matter their involvement, ensure that all exercise staff are briefed on their role with, at minimum, written instructions. More detailed positions, like roleplayers or exercise controllers, require a detailed brief beforehand, ideally the day before the exercise. Have a tech rehearsal the day before the exercise to ensure that all systems are working, that visitors or contractors have necessary IT and comms access, and that inputs can be delivered to the participants.\nTL;DR – Plan, Plan, Plan There’s a lot more to think about as you’re planning your exercise, but a lot of that is detail-oriented. However, by using this framework, you’ll have covered 70-80% of what’s required to plan and build a successful exercise.\nBut the key is that you’re planning things out in detail ahead of time. Winging an exercise never works. (Never, ever, ever!) I can say that with confidence, having participated in well over 100 exercises of various types (and having tried to wing a couple myself).\nInstead, plan things out in advance. And even though this can seem like a lot of work to begin with, after a couple of reps, you’ll have a system and process to develop an exercise quickly.\nBut even if it takes a while – and some exercises take months to put together like this – the important thing is that you’re building an exercise that will be successful, challenge the participants, meet the objectives, and make them better able to respond when things go wrong.\nCrisis Dojo: Get crisis-ready in days not months\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/28/planning-a-great-crisis-exercise/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eExercises are an essential part of skills development and, for things like emergencies and crises, the only way to build these skills outside of an actual event, events that are thankfully few and far between. But creating a successful exercise takes a lot of work and planning – you can’t just throw some problems at a group of people and hope they’ll learn from the experience.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo how do you plan a great crisis exercise?\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Planning a Great Crisis Exercise"},{"content":"There’s still only one big story right now: banks. And rather than being out of the woods, as many are hoping, I think we might have just gotten into the woods. Keep in mind that something the increased rates are designed to do is expose and break weaknesses in the financial system. This is harsh medicine and not something anyone welcomes but, when there’s a build-up of toxicity, this kind of cleanse is necessary. The problem is that you need to see it through, not quit just as it starts to have an effect. My view is that this is why the Fed and others continued with rate increases this week not despite the failure of some banks, but because of the failure of some banks. However, my view’s not what matters here: what matters is that SVB, First Republic, and Credit Suisse were part but not all of the problem and there may be more banking issues to come. If this is your first time receiving this email, greetings! These SITREPS (situation reports) contain updates on critical events and essential metrics for you to use in your decision-making. There’s a guide here and a detailed white paper about the small data approach to risk assessment here.\nLet’s go.\nBut before we dive in, I’m curious…\nHave you ever wished that there was a quicker way to update your risk scenarios? Looked for a faster way to build a crisis management plan? Wondered what it would be like if you could put together a training exercise in hours, not weeks? I have. And, judging by the emails I get, so have a lot of other folks.\nBut as it turns out, there’s a solution to all of these problems and I’m building it over here. If you answered ‘yes’ to any of those questions, you’ll want to take a look.\nBanks, Banks, Banks After a tumultuous two weeks, things have calmed down in the banking sector over the past few days. Central bank assurances, UBS’s takeover of Credit Suisse, and the relatively orderly management of US Banks SVB and First Republic have dealt with the initial set of high-profile collapses. Some bankers are keen to say that everything is back on an even keel, but the majority of commentators point out that two worrying conditions remain. First, many banks are vulnerable if depositors rush to withdraw their cash. Most of these would be back-stopped by central banks so the cash might be safe, but the banks themselves wouldn’t survive. Second, and more importantly, is that people’s confidence in the banks has been shaken and it wouldn’t take much to tip customers into a panic about their bank.\nSo rather than being out of the woods, we might have just got past the first scary part on the edge. This is still something to keep a close eye on and to plan accordingly.\nOn to the numbers.\nKey Metrics 90-Day Relative Values ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\n21-Day Trends ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\nOil (Brent Crude) Brent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Iron and Steel is high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility Market Volatility (VIX) is mid-range for this 90-day interval. The index increased sharply over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Wheat is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nShipping (FBX) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nElection Watch Early voting has begun in Finland as April’s election approaches. Internationally, not much will change: support for Ukraine will remain strong no matter who wins the election and the country is now on a path to join NATO. Domestically, however, there may be changes to the country’s immigration stance and on other social issues if the right-wing National Coalition Party wins April’s vote. The NCP is only slightly ahead of the ruling Social Democrats in the polls so the results could still go either way next week.\n2 April: Finland, Parliament 30 April: Paraguay, President, Senate and Chamber of Deputies Palate Cleansers From Litquidity on Twitter NSFM*\n(*Not safe for you, Mum…)\nKudos to Reality Labs From idea….\nFrom Reality Labs\n…to execution\nThat’s it. Sorry for the short SITREP today but I’ll be back on Tuesday with some thoughts on crisis exercise planning. (And if that whets your appetite, you should definitely take a look at CrisisDojo.)\nDisclaimer\nThese SITREPS are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Comments or observations are my own and do not reflect the opinions of any firms I am associated with. The sources from which the metrics are derived are obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, however due to the possibility of human and mechanical error or other factors, Andrew Sheves / Tarjuman LLC is not responsible for any errors or omissions.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/24/sitrep-for-friday-march-24-2023/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThere’s still only one big story right now: banks. And rather than being out of the woods, as many are hoping, I think we might have just gotten into the woods. Keep in mind that something the increased rates are designed to do is expose and break weaknesses in the financial system. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis is harsh medicine and not something anyone welcomes but, when there’s a build-up of toxicity, this kind of cleanse is necessary. The problem is that you need to see it through, not quit just as it starts to have an effect. My view is that this is why the Fed and others continued with rate increases this week not despite the failure of some banks, but because of the failure of some banks. \u003c/p\u003e","title":"SITREP for Friday, March 24, 2023"},{"content":"Image (C) Bloomberg\nIn the last few weeks, US banks Sivergate, Signature, and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, while First Republic Bank required a $30bn bailout from larger Wall Street Firms. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Swiss bank Credit Suisse has been bought by rival UBS.\nEach of these banks was in a different position, and no single factor caused these banks to get into trouble. However, these recent events provide some essential takeaways for risk and communications managers. Here are four I think are worth thinking about.\n*(Note that between starting this piece on Friday and finishing it on Monday, Credit Suisse had gone from being ‘in difficulty’, to being taken over by UBS. The situation in the global banking sector is highly volatile, and more could have changed by the time you read this, but the takeaways below are unchanged.) *\nRisk Management vs. risk management I have a lot of time for Norman Marks, who writes thoughtfully on risk management and is way ahead of me when it comes to audit and governance. So I enjoyed reading his take last week, which he ends as follows.\n“I am not sure that I would blame the external auditors. After all, the financial statements were probably correct, and we are not talking about a failure of the system of internal control over financial reporting. … You can call this a failure of risk management if you like. Any corporate, even personal failure could be called that. I think its more a failure to perform by the CEO and the rest. Poor decisions were made.” Was Silicon Valley Bank a failure of risk management?\nAnd while I agree with Norman, there’s a distinction I want to make that’s been bothering me for a while which lies at the heart of some of the issues with SVB. The distinction is between audit, governance, and compliance work, which I’ll capitalize as Risk Management, and the practical management of risk (no caps). In the case of SVB, there was no Risk Management failure that we are aware of: everything was in good shape, and they were complying with appropriate regulations. (Although arguably, this was only because rules had been relaxed over the last few years. See Forbes for more.)\nHere, I agree with Norman.\nHowever, from a practical perspective, this was a massive failure to manage risk. Recall the core issue with SVB was that it has most of its money tied up in long-term bonds, essentially stranding this cash and putting it out of reach in the short term. However, they needed ready cash because:\n1 – Startups (their main customer base) are cash hungry\n2 – The short-term interest they had to pay out was more than the interest from the long-term bonds.\n3 – Venture funding dried up in 2022, so less new money was coming in.\nYou can argue about whose fault these conditions are, but the fundamental issue is that these conditions didn’t occur overnight, so being caught upside down cash-wise is poor management. The bank was without a Chief Risk Officer from early 2022 until January 2023, and perhaps having a CRO in place would have helped. Still, practical, day-to-day risk management should be front of mind for everyone in the leadership team, not just left to the CRO to worry about.\nSo I agree with Norman that this is poor management by the CEO and leadership team, but this is also a failure to manage risk.\nMy first takeaway is that there are two kinds of risk management: governance and compliance (Risk Management, capitalized) and practical (risk management). Both matter.\nThis takes us to Credit Suisse, who apparently had neither…\nDon’t Trust, Do Verify Credit Suisse was in difficulty on two fronts. First, they were also seen as being short of cash, and depositor withdrawals threatened a bank run, requiring the Swiss central banks to step in. So far, so similar to SVB – poor practical risk management left them vulnerable. However, Credit Suisse has a second, more enduring problem with its Risk Management. In fact, if you search online for ‘Credit Suisse rogue trader’, you’ll get multiple stories from the last 15 years, and I quoted one of these stories on March 3rd.\nIn its statement, Finma criticized the Swiss bank for its approach to risk management. Credit Suisse used employees who managed relations with Greensill to handle warnings, Finma said, which represented a clear conflict of interest as they were “not independent.” The bank also relied on Greensill founder Lex Greensill himself and his answers for its own statements, Finma concluded. Credit Suisse made “partly false and overly positive statements” to Finma about the claims selection process and the funds’ exposure to certain debtors, according to the regulator. As early as 2018, both media and Finma representatives were asking questions about the Greensill funds, the regulator said. There were “many critical observations, too few appropriate reactions,” according to Finma. From Bloomberg\n(Then there was the illegal spying conducted at the behest of the former CEO, but that’s just good old-fashioned breaking the law, not a compliance failure.)\nSo despite all the talk of compliance, governance, and oversight, even industries like banking – industries that are supposed to be heavily regulated and scrutinized – get away with egregious breaches of the rules. Moreover, the fines and legal action taken against institutions have little effect, given the repeat offenses.\nSo the second takeaway is to not trust the results of an audit or regulatory filing at face value: you have to do your own checks. Don’t trust, do verify.\nCommunications matter For all of its problems, SVB’s position wasn’t necessarily unsalvageable. In the weeks before its collapse, the bank took steps to generate additional cash, including a $21bn sale of securities and a $15bn loan. These steps should have provided sufficient cash to help it overcome the imbalance between its cash needs and what was tied up in long-term bonds.\nHowever, their communication of what was happening seems to have contributed to the rapid loss of confidence. Three significant issues stood out to me:\n1 – The recapitalization plan they announced seemed to scare markets instead of reassuring them. This was a straightforward messaging failure.\n2 – They believed they were in a ‘quiet period’ while the securities offering was underway and could not make any public statements about what was happening. As Axios put it:\n“Because SVB was now in the middle of a securities offering, it considered itself to be in a “quiet period” where it couldn’t communicate anything substantive to depositors, investors, or the press beyond what was in its SEC filings.\n3 – SVB CEO, Greg Becker, has initiated a plan to sell $3.6mn of shares in January which, although perfectly legal, raised concerns that the CEO knew that the bank was in trouble. (See Blomberg for more.)\nThere was no easy way for SVB to explain its cash shortage; no matter how they spun it, depositors and the markets could have reacted as they did. But it’s important nonetheless to think about how challenging these kinds of communications are, particularly when the difference between avoiding and causing a crisis comes down to the statements you make. My friend Bill Coletticalls these inflection points’ critical moments’: periods where adverse circumstances are building up, but there’s still an opportunity to do the right thing and avoid a crisis. Or to cause one if you do the wrong thing.\nSVB was definitely in a critical moment in the run-up to its collapse, and again, there may not have been any good way to announce its recapitalization plan. But the poor communications, the optics of a CEO selling off shares before a warning is issued, and their harsh interpretation of what could and couldn’t be done in a quiet period let the narrative run away from them. The third takeaway is that communications matter and need to be thought through carefully.\nAfter all…\nPerception Beats facts I’ve often been asked about what matters most in a crisis: doing the right thing or saying the right thing. Of course, both matter, but simply saying the ‘right thing’ doesn’t mean much unless you’re being sincere and telling the truth. However, perception matters enormously, particularly when the details of what’s actually happening are hard to see. People can easily judge if a fire is under control or not, but it’s much harder for them to tell if a bank is adequately capitalized.\nAs Axio summed it up in the story above:\n*“the only real up-to-date information that depositors had about the health and viability of [SVB] was the plunging share price — and the ever-growing number of stories of other depositors pulling their deposits.” *\nSo the final takeaway is that no matter how effective your response or carefully crafted your message is, people’s perception is often all that counts.\nWe’re Not Done Yet This piece is meant to share general takeaways from what’s happening in the banking sector, takeaways that can assist risk and crisis managers from all sectors, at all times. So keep these four takeaways in mind if you get into trouble but, it’s worth noting that we’re not out of the woods yet as Credi Suisse has shown. The US Fed is developing plans to back-stop other bank collapses (see Bloomberg for more.) And now there’s pressure on the Fed and other central banks to reverse rate increases which might help banks but won’t slow inflation. As with most real crises, there’s no easy solution here, and we aren’t done yet, so take some time to think about how these events can affect you, your supply chain (both physical and digital) and make plans accordingly.\nGood luck out there\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/22/four-take-aways-from-recent-banking-flame-outs/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eImage (C) Bloomberg\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the last few weeks, US banks Sivergate, Signature, and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, while First Republic Bank required a $30bn bailout from larger Wall Street Firms. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Swiss bank Credit Suisse has been bought by rival UBS.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEach of these banks was in a different position, and no single factor caused these banks to get into trouble. However, these recent events provide some essential takeaways for risk and communications managers. Here are four I think are worth thinking about.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Four Take-Aways from Recent Banking Flame Outs"},{"content":"Daily SITREP for Friday, March 17, 2023\nRead this on the Blog\nWelcome to the SITREP for Friday, March 17, 2023.\nTwo very different banking crises played out this last week and, while both seem to be over, the panicky reactions in world markets indicates a lot of FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) has built up. This suggests that companies won’t get the benefit of the doubt if there’s a stumble or any sign of weakness.\nIn the case of SVB and Credit Suisse, there are some important takeaways with respect to risk management and communications which I’ll sum up in Tuesday’s email.\nThere’s a new government in Tunis but its appointment is contentious and comes against the backdrop of increasingly rough treatment of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, all of which is raising the tension in Tunisia. There’s good news farther east, however. First, as the peace deal between Ethiopia and the Tigray region seems to be holding and second, as China’s efforts to become a peacemaker seem to have pushed Saudi Arabia and Iran towards rekindling an old peace deal.\nOn the economic front, despite China’s increased economic activity, oil and shipping are both down significantly, with analysts suggesting that we’re not at the bottom yet for either. And finally, it seems that the Russian downing of a US drone over the Black Sea wasn’t accidental: a reminder of the ‘strategic corporal’ concept where the actions of a relatively junior soldier can have significant effects when stakes are high. If this is your first time receiving this email, greetings! These SITREPS (situation reports) contain updates on critical events and essential metrics for you to use in your decision-making. There’s a guide here and a detailed white paper about the small data approach to risk assessment here.\nLet’s go.\nRough Times for Banks The run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) last weekend is now under control with the US FDIC administering the bank and guaranteeing access to deposits for SVB’s customers. This averted the knock-on effects many had feared if the companies who relied on SVB ran out of money, which would have hit not just Silicon Valley, but the businesses and firms that relied on these tech companies to run their firms. (There are good summaries of these second-order effects in Bloomberg and the FT.)\nHowever, SVB’s rapid collapse made many observers jittery and unwilling to give other banks the benefit of the doubt, particularly after Signature Bank’s collapse a few days earlier. These fears threatened First Republic Bank which needed $30bn from larger institutions to stay afloat, while mid-sized banks saw an incredible outflow of cash over the last week as customers moved their money to the larger institutions. (See the FT for more.) There are also suggestions that mid-sized US banks will face increased controls to avoid under capitalization, which might push some other banks out of business if they’re unable, or unwilling, to meet additional regulations. (See Reuters for more.) Meanwhile, Swiss bank Credit Suisse, had a rough week after its requests for additional support were rejected by the Saudi National Bank, requiring the Swiss Central Bank to provide $45bn in credit to keep the bank afloat. The problems at Credit Suisse are unrelated to SVB and the bank has been weak for some time but this played (plays?) into the narrative of a global bank run. The worst seems to be over in the US but Credit Suisse appears to have systemic weaknesses – like its atrocious risk management I wrote about on March 3rd – that even a cash injection won’t solve. (The FT has a long article on Credit Suisse here.)\nPresident Xi as Middle East Peace Broker? Saudi Arabia and Iran announced that they were reopening diplomatic ties, which had been broken for over seven years. This announcement caught many by surprise but appears to have been largely due to diplomatic efforts by China. (See the NYT for more.)\nThis is a positive development for regional security and a win for Iran, but the absence of any US involvement in the deal strengthens the perception amongst many that the US is no longer engaged in the region. However, rather than a lack of US support to the region, this is more suggestive of China’s growing interest in engaging in global diplomacy, something that Beijing had shunned for many years. This is also a sign that Riyadh, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is keen to build partnerships with countries like China that support his ambitious construction and expansion plans. (See Bloomberg for more.)\nTwo Global Friction Points A Russian jet caused a US drone to ditch in the Black Sea earlier this week. Initially, this was described as an accident by Moscow but video from the drone appears to show the jet ‘buzzing’ the drone before dumping fuel in its path, causing it to crash. (See Reuters for more.) On one hand, this is a small action but when tensions are high, and an active conflict zone is so close, small actions like this have the potential to spiral, a concept sometimes referred to as the strategic corporal. A Russian Su-27 military aircraft dumps fuel while flying by a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” drone over the Black Sea, March 14, 2023 in this still image taken from handout video released by the Pentagon via REUTERS\nMeanwhile, tensions around the South China Sea and Taiwan are also high and both the US and Chinese navies are very active in these areas. In some places, the navigable waterways are relatively narrow, putting vessels into close proximity, again increasing the possibility that a thoughtless action, or accident, could quickly spiral. (More on Reuters.)\nIs There an Oil and Container Glut? Both oil and container prices are at low points due to oversupply with shipping having dropped over 25% in the last few weeks alone. Analysts believe that even with China’s increased demand, oil supplies remain robust as Russia’s production remains high. This oversupply has pushed oil to a 15-month low but prices may remain volatile for some time as a range of factors is affecting the price. (See Bloomberg for more.)\nContainer shipping is at levels not seen since before the pandemic with the FBX container index down around the $1,500 mark, a $500 drop from only a couple of weeks ago. 2023 Freight Rates from our friends at Freightos\nThis suggests an oversupply of shipping inventory that’s not yet matched by demand, suggesting that shipping will remain cheap for some time. Xeneta CEO Patrik Berglund said in late November that if spot rates had not stabilized and started to rise again by the first and second quarters of this year, “carriers have played this market really badly.”\nBy that definition, ocean carriers have played this market really badly.\nAnalyst Greg Miller in Freightwaves\nNevertheless, China’s economy seems to be back on track so these low prices may not last. (See Bloomberg for more.)\nOn to the numbers.\nKey Metrics 90-Day Relative Values ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\n21-Day Trends ↻ Turn your phone for a better view\nOil (Brent Crude) Brent Crude is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Iron and Steel are high for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility Market Volatility (VIX) is very high for this 90-day interval. The index increased sharply over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Wheat is low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nShipping (FBX) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nElection Watch 2 April: Finland, Parliament 30 April: Paraguay, President, Senate and Chamber of Deputies Palate Cleansers We’re all just one file deletion away from armageddon…\nBig4Accountant on Twitter\nThat’s it for today. Have a great weekend and I’ll see you on Tuesday with some takeaways for risk and communications managers that we can learn from SVB and Credit Suisse.\nAll my best\nAndrew\nDisclaimer\nThese SITREPS are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Comments or observations are my own and do not reflect the opinions of any firms I am associated with. The sources from which the metrics are derived are obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, however due to the possibility of human and mechanical error or other factors, Andrew Sheves / Tarjuman LLC is not responsible for any errors or omissions.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/17/sitrep-for-friday-march-17-2023/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eDaily SITREP for Friday, March 17, 2023\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/17/sitrep-for-friday-march-17-2023/\"\u003eRead this on the Blog\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWelcome to the SITREP for Friday, March 17, 2023.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo very different banking crises played out this last week and, while both seem to be over, the panicky reactions in world markets indicates a lot of FUD (fear, uncertainty,  and doubt) has built up. This suggests that companies won’t get the benefit of the doubt if there’s a stumble or any sign of weakness.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"SITREP for Friday March 17 2023"},{"content":"Recently, there was a great discussion on the frequency of crisis management exercises in a forum I’m part of. What was most surprising to me was the degree of consensus on the ideal tempo. The vast majority of folks recommended a quarterly \u0026amp; annual frequency.\n– Quarterly low-intensity tabletops focused on skills development and team cohesion.\n– Annual high-intensity simulations to reinforce learning and test teams and systems in a realistic environment.\n(What was wonderful was that no one suggested one-off annual exercises, which are only suitable for checking the ‘training’ box and burning up a lot of cash in the process.)\nI agree with this quarterly/annual approach but also like adding monthly ‘booster’ sessions (like a lunch and learn) on a specific topic or skill. This cadence aligns with the ‘little and often’ approach that you need to maintain a skill: imagine going to the gym or taking a piano lesson once a year and expecting any noticeable improvement.\nHowever, getting a management team to buy into what seems like a lot of training time can be tricky, so how can we sell the idea of frequent training?\nGetting Buy-in for Crisis Management Training First, you need to know what kind of time you’re asking for. Don’t reach for your calculator just yet, I did the math for you.\nMonthly one-hour sessions – 12 hours Quarterly training and exercises x3 – 4 hours each, 12 total Annual exercise and training – 8 hours Total 32 hours Note that this is the requirement for the crisis management team. Some teams will be doing much more crisis management-specific work in between, but let’s use 32 hours as the time commitment for your management team.\nNow we have that number, let’s put it into perspective.\nComparative Values First, let’s assume a work year is 49 weeks of 40 hours, making 1,960 total hours.\nThirty-two hours is 1.6% of the work year.\nNext, imagine that a manager drinks three cups of tea or coffee daily, each taking 10 minutes to fetch. (Even if an EA does that, they still need to get rid of the coffee later). There’s much more time lost in context switching, but let’s keep it simple and say that this is half an hour per day. **That means managers spend 122.25 hours per year getting coffee. **(30 minutes per day, five days a week, for 49 weeks). Now you can make your case in one of three ways.\nFirst, the insurance angle. You’re insuring your corporate reputation for an investment of 1.6% of your leadership’s time. No matter how much your leaders’ time is worth per hour, that’s a tiny amount compared to the market cap of your firm. This is an excellent investment if you imagine the huge percentages that even a moderate-sized crisis can knock off your company’s value.\nSecond, the time comparison. Your managers spend well over 120 hours getting coffee each year: almost four times as much as they’d be investing in crisis readiness. Suddenly, the time investment seems trivial.\nThird, the fiduciary duty. *(This has nothing to do with the time investment, but it’s always helpful to have a legal backstop to make your case.) *\nThe final reason is that it’s their job. There is a bit of a lag here between the perspective of leadership teams and where the law seems to be going, but it seems clear that there would be a robust case for a charge of negligence if a leadership team hadn’t prepared adequately for a crisis and something went wrong.\nThe fiduciary duty of Boards is well understood, and even if you have a narrow view of simply maximizing shareholder return, that means minimizing risks.\n“The fiduciary duty of the board is to promote the value of the corporation. In fulfilling that duty, directors must exercise their business judgment in considering and reconciling the interests of various stakeholders—including shareholders, employees, customers, suppliers, the environment and communities—and the attendant risks and opportunities for the corporation.” Martin Lipton, Karessa L. Cain, and Kathleen C. Iannone, Wachtell, Lipton, of Rosen \u0026amp; Katz, in the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance blog\nHowever, recent cases have expanded that responsibility into the C-Suite, as the ruling against McDonald’s former CFO shows. So, if your arguments about the time investment and the coffee comparison fall on deaf ears, you can always make the governance and responsibility case. This approach always feels like waving a big stick to me, so use this with care, as executives don’t like feeling threatened. However, the General Counsel might be very responsive to this argument, so test this approach with them beforehand and see if it sticks.\nWhat’s the Alternative? Alternatively, put aside an afternoon, get your leadership team together, and set $30,000 or $40,000 on fire. This will cause a great deal of stress, much confusion, and make you no less able to respond to a crisis.\nJust like a one-off annual exercise.\nThis might seem like an exaggeration, but I can’t think of a single time when I’ve seen any notable improvement in a team that only exercises annually. Usually, the same problems occur to the point where you could simply change the date on last year’s post-exercise report, and it would remain valid.\nArguably, a one-off annual exercise can even be damaging as it can give an organization the sense that they’re ready for a crisis when they’re not. That misplaced confidence will come back to bite them when things go sideways.\nIf you enjoy preparedness theater and like crisis management LARP-ing, then an annual exercise will get that out of your system. Otherwise, opt for the quarterly cadence at a minimum and prepare your argument(s) beforehand so you can make a strong case for making this vital, albeit relatively tiny, investment in crisis readiness.\n(Please don’t keep this a secret! You probably know someone who’s struggling to make a case for spending more time on crisis readiness, so please share this with them.)\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/16/how-often-should-your-crisis-management-team-train/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eRecently, there was a great discussion on the frequency of crisis management exercises in a forum I’m part of. What was most surprising to me was the degree of consensus on the ideal tempo. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe vast majority of folks recommended a quarterly \u0026amp; annual frequency.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e– Quarterly low-intensity tabletops focused on skills development and team cohesion.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e– Annual high-intensity simulations to reinforce learning and test teams and systems in a realistic environment.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How Often Should Your crisis Management Team Train?"},{"content":"To be successful, the process would have to:\nBe faster than if I did it ‘by hand’ Produce realistic inputs Be easily repeatable Allow for customization to meet client needs The outputs had to include:\nIdeas for scenarios A short video news report Social media clips Text for a news story This left me with five challenges to solve:\nGet ChatGPT into my workspace. Generate scenario ideas. Generate supporting text material. Generate a video news clip input. Generate social media inputs. Here’s how the AI Crisis Management Exercise Build Hackathon* went down. (*Attendee one)\nChallenge 1 – Get ChatGPT into my workspace. ChatGPT is going to do all the heavy lifting for the text but I don’t want to keep having to move between OpenAI and where I’m doing my work so I want to set something up where I can access ChaptGPT from my workspace.\nDataChaz on Twitter is a good source of ideas and they pointed me towards a tutorial from 1litlecoder where they show how to build a script to access ChatGPT from GoogleSheets. (Their video is here.)\nI copied the script and tweaked it so that instead of keywords, it would now use a prompt to generate:\nIncident ideas A 250-word news story ‘Angry’ Tweets (but aren’t they all…?) I needed to fiddle a bit with the prompts for the news story and Tweets to get these to sound right but got to a formula where the tone and style of the outputs were pretty realistic. Now I can access ChatGPT from GoogleSheets (which is obviously where every right-minded human does their best work).\nConsideration – The news story and Tweet generator part of the script currently takes only one variable. To really make this take off, I want to send three variables: incident details, location, and relative time (e.g. earlier today, yesterday). The next task will be for me to build an option to send these three variables to the script for inclusion in the outputs. (This is an easily solvable problem code-wise, but it’s beyond me right now so I have some tinkering to do.) The workaround is that I ‘hard wire’ the location and time in the script and can easily amend that as necessary for now.\nThis was the longest part of the process and took about two hours.\nChallenge 1: Get ChatGPT into my workspace ✅\nChallenge 2 – Generate scenario ideas. This wouldn’t always be necessary as we might know the kind of scenario a client wants to practice but assuming that we had free reign, we would want to generate some ideas. Instead of brainstorming with colleagues, we can use ChatGPT to generate these ideas.\nI enter a prompt and ask it to generate some incident ideas. In this case, “oil spill” gave me these ideas.\nChemical spill in a river contaminating the water supply of a nearby town. Gas leak from a pipeline causing an explosion and fire in a residential area. Nuclear power plant meltdown resulting in radiation exposure for nearby residents. Mining accident causing a collapse and trapping workers underground. Industrial waste dumping polluting a lake and killing wildlife. Train derailment spilling hazardous materials into a river. Oil rig explosion causing fatalities and environmental damage. Pesticide contamination of crops leading to health problems for consumers. Factory fire releasing toxic smoke and chemicals into the air. Sewage overflow contaminating a beach and causing health concerns for swimmers. These are all good, credible scenarios and I was pleasantly surprised that the model returned not just incident suggestions (e.g. pesticide contamination) but added secondary effects (health problems for consumers).\nSo far so good. I chose ‘gas leak from a pipeline causing an explosion and fire in a residential area’ to use for the remainder of the tests.\nConsideration – The response time from ChatGTP can vary significantly so this stage and the following steps can be almost instantaneous or take up to 4-5 minutes. Consideration – Some ideas are too ’emotive’ for ChatGTP and won’t pass its built-in controls when you try to write the stores. For example, I got a ‘sorry I can’t do that’ type of message when I asked it to write stories about a nuclear accident. Consideration – I don’t want to pass any PII or company-specific information to any of the AI systems so I won’t include these in the prompt or the video later.\nChallenge 2: Generate indecent ideas ✅\nChallenge 3 – Generate supporting text material. Using the gas leak idea, I ran the news story and social media generation models to get the following.\nNews Story text\nEarlier today, a gas leak from a pipeline caused an explosion and fire in a residential area of Aberdeen. The incident occurred at approximately 10:30 am, and emergency services were immediately dispatched to the scene. Eyewitnesses reported hearing a loud explosion followed by flames and smoke rising from the affected area. The local authorities have confirmed that there have been no casualties, but several homes have been damaged. The cause of the gas leak is currently under investigation, and residents in the surrounding area have been advised to stay indoors and keep their windows closed as a precautionary measure.\nSocial media text\nI can’t believe this is happening in our community! How could a gas leak from a pipeline cause such a devastating explosion and fire? We need answers and action now! #AberdeenGasLeak #CommunityOutrage” My heart goes out to all the families affected by the gas leak explosion in Aberdeen. This is unacceptable and we demand accountability from those responsible! #JusticeForAberdeen #StopTheNegligence The safety of our community should never be compromised for the sake of profit. It’s time for the government and corporations to prioritize the well-being of people over their own interests. #NoMoreGasLeakDisasters #AberdeenStrong I’m sick and tired of hearing about these preventable disasters caused by negligence and greed. We need to hold those responsible accountable and demand stricter regulations to prevent future tragedies. #EnoughIsEnough #AberdeenGasLeak My thoughts and prayers are with the families affected by the gas leak explosion in Aberdeen. We need to come together as a community and demand justice for those who lost their homes and loved ones. #SolidarityForAberdeen #NeverForget\nThese inputs are very close to what I would have written as a first pass at exercise inputs so I’m happy to move on with the test, but I might tweak these a little if I had more time to hit some specific points I’d like participants to consider in the exercise.\nNow I have the text material, I can move on to building the inputs.\nChallenge 3:\nGenerate text for social media inputs ✅ Generate text for a news story ✅ Challenge 4 – Generate a video news clip input. I switch to Synthesia where I’ve built a template to use for training news clips. I have my text already but need an image so I search for ‘polluted river’ and find a good image from the EPA.\nNow can I drop the image into the template, change the headline and drop the news story text into the editor to generate a realistic news clip.\n10 minutes later, the news clip has been rendered and is ready for use.\nHere’s the clip – remember, this is a fictitious event.\nConsideration – Quite rightly, Sythesia has strict rules around fake news and does have both an automated and human system in place to check the content. I’ve watermarked the video with EXERCISE EXERCISE and have already checked with their moderators so this rendering is very quick but my first run took a while to get approval.\n***Note – *Here’s a newer video produced in 2025. Quite an improvement\nChallenge 4: Generate a video news clip ✅\nChallenge 5 – Generate social media inputs. Finally, I need to create some social media clips and I use Tweetgen to make realistic-looking cards using the text I generated earlier.\nChallenge 5: Generate social media inputs ✅\nIn Summary Overall, this was a great successful as I had produced:\nIdeas for scenarios A short video news report Social media clips Text for a news story And the system met the criteria I had set.\nBe faster than if I did it ‘by hand’ ✅ Once built, I created the ideas, text, video and Tweets in 15 minutes. Doing this ‘by hand’, recording an actual human, editing the video, etc would have taken at least half a day. Produce realistic inputs ✅\nYou can tell the video is artificially generated but I think it’s realistic enough to not cause exercise participants too much confusion and it delivers the message realistically. (Judge for yourself here.) Be easily repeatable ✅\n(Did I mention this only took 15 minutes to run? Allow for customization to meet client needs ✅\nWith some tweaks to the prompts, this could be adapted to any location, any time. This whole build, including research, took about four hours, the majority of which was reformatting the code and input prompts. After that, it takes around 15-20 minutes to run up all the materials above.\nAs I noted above, there are some considerations to keep in mind and I need to do some work on the script but this was a success and, hopefully, will allow us to run realistic exercises more frequently at much less cost.\nTwo Health Warnings First, this could obviously be used for nefarious purposes and there’s a plethora of fake news already being generated this way. But we could make fake news stories before: the difference now is the speed with which we can do so. However, please use this responsibly and make sure you mark materials up as EXERCISE, just as you would before.\nSecond, I would not include any client information or PII in the prompts I sent to any AI. As these are learning models, I am concerned about how any data provided in a prompt gets absorbed into the model so I’d keep the prompts generic and then, if you have to, add confidential information once you have the material in your own workspace.\nOtherwise, I think these tools (and whatever comes afterwards, 👋 GPT-4) provide at least an order of magnitude in efficiency and speed when it comes to developing realistic training materials for crisis simulation, which should let us train teams more frequently at a much lower cost.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/15/crisis-management-exercise-generation-using-ai/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eTo be successful, the process would have to:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBe faster than if I did it ‘by hand’\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eProduce realistic inputs\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBe easily repeatable\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAllow for customization to meet client needs\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe outputs had to include:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eIdeas for scenarios\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eA short video news report\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSocial media clips\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eText for a news story\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis left me with five challenges to solve:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGet ChatGPT into my workspace.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGenerate scenario ideas.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGenerate supporting text material.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGenerate a video news clip input.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eGenerate social media inputs.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere’s how the AI Crisis Management Exercise Build Hackathon* went down. (*Attendee one)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Crisis management exercise generation using AI"},{"content":"Good morning.\n💕 Happy Valentine’s Day 💕\nIt’s a slightly different intro today because I’ve some exciting news to share.\nI know, I know. Every email you get starts with someone saying how excited they are: excited that you signed up for free coupons, excited that you joined an exclusive group of only 3,289,000 other professions, excited that you chose their firm to clean your windows, etc., etc.\nI get it.\nBut I can say that I’m genuinely excited as I write this for three reasons:\nI’ve had five cups of coffee, and it’s only 10:00 am.I’ve been building this for almost 20 years.I think this is a genuine game-changer for decision-makers.\nBut first…\nIf you don’t like data, this isn’t for you. (I mean…)\nAnd if you don’t have to decide what your organization should do next, this isn’t for you either, so you can stop reading and skip to the metrics.\nHowever,\nIf you do want decision-making data, then read on.And if you want to get back several hours of your time each week, then you should definitely stick around.(And if the charts in the reports send a frisson of excitement down your leg, you may want to sit down.)\nHere goes.\nAfter a couple of months, the Daily SITREP is bedded in, so it’s time to get the real project underway.\nBecause the daily metrics and commentary are only part of the plan. These are valuable bits of planning data that help put things into context, but the real value isn’t in the metrics or the commentary. The real value is knowing what the metrics and commentary mean for you and your organization.\nThat’s where the customized SITREPS come in.\nYou’ll still get the daily emails in full, but you also get the customized daily risk reports. These take the regular SITREP information and put that into context for you.\nYou mean I can get a custom email like this every day, Dad?\nYes, you can, Son. Yes you can.\nSo instead of looking at the information and wondering, ‘what does that mean for me?’, you’ll get an update that tells you what the changes mean for your organization, whether your risks have increased, or maybe an opportunity has emerged. And you’ll be reminded of whatever contingencies you’ve established for that event.\nSo if you’ve stuck around this far but don’t care about these things, don’t worry: you’ll still get a short version of the SITREP daily and the weekly wrap-up on a Friday.\nBut if you do have to make decisions, and want to save time figuring out what the data means for you, sign up for customized SITREPs to get:\nFull daily SITREPS with all the data and analysisCustomized risk data for your organizationIn-depth research reports.\nSo if you want custom SITREPS for your organization, you can start a 7-day trial of the custom SITREPS here.\nA PRO plan will get you customized risk data for your organization plus the full daily SITREPS with all the data and analysis and in-depth research reports.\nBut most of all, it will give you clarity:\nClarity about the risks you face.Clarity of the opportunities that you have.Clarity about the decisions you need to make.\nAnd that’s what makes it game-changing.\nSign up for a PRO trial here.\nOn to the numbers.\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is low for this 90-day interval. The index increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and Senate\nPalate cleanser Try PRO here\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/20-years-in-the-making/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e💕 Happy Valentine’s Day 💕\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s a slightly different intro today because I’ve some exciting news to share.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI know, I know. Every email you get starts with someone saying how excited they are: excited that you signed up for free coupons, excited that you joined an exclusive group of only 3,289,000 other professions, excited that you chose their firm to clean your windows, etc., etc.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI get it.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"20 Years in the Making"},{"content":"Good morning.\nA recent outbreak of bird flu has been detected in mammals raising concerns that a variant of the H5N1 virus could eventually infect humans. The chances of this are slim but it’s a good reminder to review plans nevertheless. Meanwhile, the metrics are a mix of extremes: wheat and iron and steel are at some of their highest prices for the 90-day period, while shipping and the VIX are at their lowest. Oil is relatively low but has been fluctuating recently.\nFolks in Cyprus, Monaco and Ecuador all head to the polls this weekend. And, on that note, enjoy your weekend and we’ll be back on Monday.\nBird Flu Reminder Currently, an H5N1 outbreak is quickly spreading through bird populations but this particular strain is raising concerns that it could eventually pass to humans. Bird and swine flu have made this jump before and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths in previous outbreaks. One of the biggest swine flu outbreaks in 2009 is estimated to have killed over 280,000. Concerns are increasing after mink in Spain were recently found to be infected, signifying that this variant can move from bird to mammal, raising fears that humans could eventually become infected. Read more in Nature.\nBetter than all the other images of mink in cages… Photo by Erik Karits on Unsplash\nA Reminder to Maintain Contingency Plans The chances of a large-scale outbreak are very slim in this case and there are multiple instances of limited transfer of animal infections to humans that didn’t result in widespread illness. However, at a time when everyone has ‘COVID-fatigue’ and there are moves to declare an end to the current emergency, it’s a reminder that other dangers exist. Leaders and decision-makers should review the procedures and arrangements they put in place during the height of COVID and refresh these, based on lessons learned. That will put organizations in a good position if there is a future infectious outbreak of some kind.\nCommunications Challenges Unfortunately, the degree to which people are ‘over’ COVID means that implementing preventative measures in the face of any future illness will be much harder in the near term. There’s also no overlap in these illnesses so any resistance to COVID and the immunizations developed won’t provide any resistance. However, that’s not to say that people will think that there’s some carryover. Both of these present significant communications challenges in the face of any future outbreak. Most of the communications effort will fall to governments but organizations will also have to explain any changes they implement to their staff. It’s time to dust off those pandemic planning guides and check they’re up to date, just in case.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after some fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\n(No change) Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation but continue to creep up.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\n(No change) Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\n=\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\n(No change) Shipping (FBX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation and a sharp drop at the beginning of the week.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 5: Cyprus, PresidentFebruary 5: Monaco, ParliamentFebruary 5: Ecuador, ReferendumFebruary 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and Senate\nPalate cleanser Risk management \u0026gt; rapid intervention \u0026gt; crisis management\nAll you risk managers can feel a little smug reading this….\nFarnham Street vis Twitter\nWhat do you think about the SITREPS this week?\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/a-bird-flu-reminder-to-keep-contingency-plans-up-to-date/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA recent outbreak of bird flu has been detected in mammals raising concerns that a variant of the H5N1 virus could eventually infect humans. The chances of this are slim but it’s a good reminder to review plans nevertheless. Meanwhile, the metrics are a mix of extremes: wheat and iron and steel are at some of their highest prices for the 90-day period, while shipping and the VIX are at their lowest. Oil is relatively low but has been fluctuating recently.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Bird Flu Reminder to Keep Contingency Plans up to Date"},{"content":"Good morning.\nding! You’ve got mail…. 📬\nWelcome to the first Daily SITREP! No more anxiously waiting between updates: now you’ll be getting the metrics and critical events delivered to your inbox daily, Monday – Friday.\nPlease keep the feedback coming – that way, I can make this as useful as possible (and not waste valuable space in your inbox).\nYesterday was Blue Monday when the reality of the New Year sets in: whatever excitement there was around the holidays has faded, the decorations are back in the attic, and we’ve all gotten used to writing ‘2023’ on our checks. And there was a similar feeling with the key metrics: movements are relatively gentle and valuations seem to be stabilizing for the moment as things settle into the New year. Unfortunately, some of this stability comes from pretty grim contributing factors – there’s no let up in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, for example – and the results are no less pleasant as the cost of living bites and layoffs continue. Nevertheless, this is a moment of relative calm which should be appreciated. And a bit like your New Year’s resolutions, it’s worth reviewing any big plans you made for your organization in early January to see if those are still great ideas now the enthusiasm has ebbed a little.\nSovereign debt and defaults is next on the list of ‘What I’m Watching in 2023’. While I was finishing that piece on Friday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that extraordinary measures would be starting soon to help manage the run up to hitting the debt ceiling this summer. There’s a broader look at the countries at risk of default below and this is a good reminder to pay attention to this longer-term, but very significant, threat and plan accordingly.\nOn to the numbers.\n(Not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? Read the white paper here and look out for a detailed user’s guide coming in the early New Year.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Brent Crude has crept up slightly into the mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Market commentary and analysis vary wildly about what oil will do in 2023 and the broad analysis I shared earlier holds for many: ‘prices will peak around $95 with an average of around $90, a drop from previous 2023 estimates which reflects a gloomy outlook for the year’. See Reuters for more\nHowever, within that range, the opportunity for significant movements remain and China’s plans for a great economic boom are leading some to forecast oil moving up as high as $110 by Q3. The exact number is less important here than the reinforcement of the idea that China’s reopening will kick in soon and will lead to significant increases in demand for oil as well as other commodities by mid-year.\nIran remains worth watching as their motivation and ability to inflame tension in the Gulf remain. Talk of the rise of the petroyuan in 2023 is overblown. See Friday’s update for more.\nIron and Steel Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *The Chinese construction and manufacturing boom that many expected in 2023 is off to a very unsteady start as COVID spreads rapidly after December’s relaxations. Sectors that had struggled under the strict COVID restrictions are suffering just as much in the current *laissez-faire *environment. This is temporarily delaying the expected economic boom but many analysts expect things to take off in late Q1 meaning that demand for oil, shipping and commodities will all rise significantly thereafter.\nSee Bloomberg for more\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index has decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation and spikes around the New Year.\nWhat to Watch Messaging from the US Fed and ECB remain consistent and the end-of-year turbulence has faded, meaning that, although the news in many sectors isn’t welcome, the general market conditions seem to have been broadly accepted and priced in. Layoffs continue in tech, banking and retail while some large brick-and-mortar stores, like Bed Bath and Beyond, seem to be slipping further into difficulty. So although decision-makers have greater clarity as to what lies ahead, economic conditions are grim for many and look to remain so for short- to mid-term.\nHowever, negotiations around raising the US debt limit will be contentious and cause significant turbulence in the run up to hitting the ceiling, likely in late Q2, early Q3. See ‘What I’m Watching in 2023’ below for more.\nWheat *(No change) *Wheat remains low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Despite agreements brokered by Turkey, Russia could still impose a complete blockade on Ukrainian grain exports to exert pressure on Kyiv and her allies. Meanwhile, even strict controls and inspections for outbound shipments mean that exports remain slowed. Moscow could also conduct military operations to disrupt spring planting meaning that prices could rise again next spring and summer.\nRead more in AGWeek\nOcean Freight (FBX) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after the spike we saw in December.\nWhat to watch\n*(No change) *China’s reopening and the effects of recessions on demand in the US and elsewhere remain the biggest issues to track but there are no definitive signs to watch at the moment.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\n“Lunar New Year starts on January 22, 2023, and with it, manufacturing and shipping from China and the Far East will come to a halt. Disruptions can last for up to a month. Learn more about Lunar New Year and how to avoid shipping delays here. “\nWhat I’m Watching in 2023: Sovereign Debt and Defaults Several countries are at risk of defaulting on loans which will cause a range of difficulties for them, their citizens, and the organizations and institutions left holding the bag.\nThe complications of COVID and inflation Countries default all the time (although some more than others) for different reasons, but two unusual factors heighten the current risk of default. First, the twin effects of COVID were a reduction in economic output coupled with an increase in costs for most countries. Some places with less diversified economies, such as Belize’s reliance on tourism, were hit particularly hard.\nSecond, inflation increases the actual price of debt payments meaning that rising rates over the past 12 months have made debt servicing more costly. In addition to these common elements, each country has its own set of factors at play. From the poor handling of inflation in Sri Lanka and Turkey to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, other elements also increase the likelihood of default. Therefore, while looking at any particular situation, it’s not enough to just look at post-COVID recovery or interest rates when trying to decide if a default is more or less likely.\nCountries at risk of default. The countries listed below are assessed as having a high risk of default by the Council for Foreign Relations (CFR) as of November 2022. These countries are rated nine or ten (out of ten) on the CFR’s Sovereign Risk Tracker, where the maximum score equates to a 50% chance of default in the next five years. The countries in bold are already in default.\nArgentineEgyptGhanaKenyaLebanonNigeriaPakistanRussiaSri LankaTunisiaUkraineVenezuelaTurkey\n(* Elections scheduled in 2023.)\nRead all the CFR’s analysis here\nWhat happens when a country defaults? Creditors take a haircut Generally, creditors have to accept that they’re not going to get back what they’re owed and have to accept a lower rate of return (‘taking a haircut’ as it’s called). As part of the restructuring negotiations, there are usually requirements for austerity and increased fiscal discipline. These measures can be harsh, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a reputation for demanding tough concessions. Cash dries up As the likelihood of default rises, so does the fear that cash will dry up. People rush to withdraw their savings, and ATMs run dry. Then, banks are ordered to halt withdrawals. The upshot is that money is in short supply, so all trade dries up and, even though they might have money in the bank, depositors can’t access it. This is why we saw people ‘robbing’ banks in Lebanon: it was the only way they could get their funds out to help sick relatives. Everything gets more expensive The lack of cash and higher interest rates makes everything more expensive, making it even more difficult for people to afford the basics. Assuming you have a way to pay for them, importing materials and goods becomes much more expensive.\nAusterity bites Austerity measures – whether at the insistence of creditors or as a way for the government to get things under control – start to hurt. Civil servants have their pay frozen or cut, services suffer, and the quality of life drops for everyone, most notably the poor, sick, and most vulnerable. For the general population, this is a case of the cure being worse than the disease.\nTension rises, protests, and unrest increase The exact combination of factors will differ, country by country, and be exacerbated or diminished by other conditions. Nevertheless, the effects of a default hurt, and frustration boils over. Protests can begin peacefully but often become more heated, and clashes with the police are not uncommon. In the case of Sri Lanka, largely peaceful protests were so widespread that the president and prime minister fled the country back in July 2022.\nWhere there are underlying social tensions, the solidarity of shared suffering may bring groups together, albeit temporarily. However, in many cases, these fault lines are exploited by political and community leaders: blaming ‘the other’ for your economic woes is a tried-and-tested technique that’s been refined over hundreds of years.\nElections disappoint everyone Another effect of this kind of economic hardship is that everyone ends up disappointed after an election. The party(ies) that lost are unhappy, as you’d expect, but so is the winning side and their followers because there’s often no way for them to make good on their promises of economic reform. Coalitions are weaker, public support ebbs quickly, and the likelihood that the ruling party can govern effectively diminishes. Suffice it to say, no matter the specific consequences, default has a range of consequences, none good.\nIs America Approaching a Self-imposed Default? So far, the attention has been on frontier markets, but the most consequential default pending in 2023 might be America, the World’s largest economy. And, worst of all, if there were an American default, it would be entirely self-imposed. How Could America Default? America regularly bumps up against its self-imposed debt limit but, as the World’s reserve currency, the U.S. can easily issue more government bonds that will find willing buyers. However, the new Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives has promised to use the debt ceiling negotiations to force budget concessions from the opposition. In itself, this shouldn’t be a problem: in fact, some fiscal discipline in Washington would be a welcome change. However, the problem is that the current Republican caucus includes some members with unorthodox ideas concerning the Global economy. Moreover, the GOP’s Freedom Caucus has an outsized ability to interfere with House business, as they showed by forcing McCarthy to go through a dozen or so rounds of voting for Speaker, instead of the normal one or two. Combined, this means there’s no chance of a clean, well-ordered debt limit extension this year.\nAnd keep in mind that there is no firm default date. ‘X-date’ is constantly updated by the Treasury, but it is not an exact science. On January 13, Secretary Yellen notified Congress that she believed the U.S. will run out of money in early June. (See Bloomberg for more) However, when I started writing this piece the week before, estimates of X-Date were mid-August, so this is a moving target.\nWhat Happens Then? It’s unlikely that America will default in the true sense by not paying back creditors at all. However, there is a real risk of a short default period if there are miscalculations during the debt discussions. Moreover, we know that even approaching default causes significant damage – damage that can take years to repair – because this happened in 2011 when a similar situation occurred. The U.S. Treasury described the 2011 situation thus’:\n“Political brinksmanship that engenders even the prospect of a default can be disruptive to financial markets and American businesses and families. The closest historical precedent is the debt ceiling impasse in 2011, around which time consumer and business confidence fell sharply, and financial markets went through stress and job growth slowed. In 2011, U.S. government debt was downgraded, the stock market fell, measures of volatility jumped, and credit risk spreads widened noticeably; these financial market effects persisted for months.”\nThe Potential Macroeconomic Effect of Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship, US Treasury\nUnfortunately, the 2023 debt negotiations in the U.S. will be more treacherous. There’s a much higher chance of a miscalculation by McCarthy and a real risk of sabotage by the geniuses in the Freedom Caucus. And, because the U.S. economy is already shaky, the effects would be much more significant than in 2011. This doesn’t just mean tough times for America, as it’s hard to insulate the World economy from that of the U.S., which means that of all the potential defaults to track in 2023, the place to watch most closely is Washington, DC.\nRandom Stat 1 million tonnes, 10 years\nBattery demand curve graph courtesy of Forbes\nLast week, Sweden announced an incredible million-tonne reserve of rare earth minerals had been discovered in the country’s far north. Although the full extent of the deposit will take years to determine, this find is substantial and will shift reliance away from China although not in the short term. Estimates are that it will be at least 10 years before the minerals can be extracted. Nevertheless, this is a significant development for both Europe – which currently has no supply of domestic rare earth elements (REE) – and the world more broadly the demand for REE continues to increase to aid the transition to electric vehicles and other technologies.\nAdd poll here\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/a-mid-january-reality-check-and-why-you-need-to-pay-attention-to-sovereign-debt/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eding!\u003c/em\u003e You’ve got mail…. 📬\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWelcome to the first Daily SITREP! No more anxiously waiting between updates: now you’ll be getting the metrics and critical events delivered to your inbox daily, Monday – Friday.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePlease keep the feedback coming – that way, I can make this as useful as possible (and not waste valuable space in your inbox).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYesterday was Blue Monday when the reality of the New Year sets in: whatever excitement there was around the holidays has faded, the decorations are back in the attic, and we’ve all gotten used to writing ‘2023’ on our checks. And there was a similar feeling with the key metrics: movements are relatively gentle and valuations seem to be stabilizing for the moment as things settle into the New year. Unfortunately, some of this stability comes from pretty grim contributing factors – there’s no let up in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, for example – and the results are no less pleasant as the cost of living bites and layoffs continue. Nevertheless, this is a moment of relative calm which should be appreciated. And a bit like your New Year’s resolutions, it’s worth reviewing any big plans you made for your organization in early January to see if those are still great ideas now the enthusiasm has ebbed a little.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Mid-January reality check and why you need to pay attention to sovereign debt"},{"content":"Good morning.\nENI is about to sign a new gas deal with Libya which is good news but adds a fraction of what the EU needs. Fiddly fingers (that’s a technical term – look it up) caused Tuesday’s wild opening on the NYSE while it was Microsoft’s turn on Wednesday. Meanwhile, several recent stories about Egypt bring the combined challenges of what prices, inflation and sovereign debt info focus. These same conditions exist in many countries so the stories are worth reading to get a sense of what’s going on in frontier markets.\nCoverage and Analysis New Gas Exports From Libya Italian energy firm ENI will sign a new deal with the Libyan government in Tripoli this weekend, to open up a new gas reserve in the Mediterranean. The field should eventually produce 850 million cubic feet of gas a day, an over 50% increase in daily exports. The gas will primarily flow to Europe via the Green Stream pipeline into southern Italy. This will be welcome news in Europe, increasing the amount of non-Russian gas available to the continent. However, Russia was supplying around 10 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) just prior to the invasion of Ukraine so there’s still a lot of ground to make up. Russia’s natural gas exports to the EU from the EIA (EIA.gov)\nThis move does seem to indicate some confidence in ENI that there will be a sufficiently stable climate in Libya for the work to go ahead so that may be a positive signal for what lies ahead. See Bloomberg for more.\nA “Manual Error” Caused The NYSE Wild Open on Tuesday The NYSE released a statement into Tuesday’s start which caused massive fluctuations in some key stocks and led to over 1,300 trades having to be rewound. In its statement, the NYSE explained, “The root cause was determined to be a manual error involving the Exchange’s Disaster Recovery configuration at system start of day.“ So nothing nefarious or sinister but still a reminder of how complex and fragile some big systems are.\nI’m sure a lot of people who’ve read this story will have broken into a cold sweat – I’ve certainly committed many manual errors in my time. (I’d better check in on Chad…) Read the full NYSE statement here.\nEgypt Illustrates Inflation, Bread, and Sovereign Debt Challenges Many Face Some recent stories from Egypt provide good summaries of the difficulties that many countries in the Middle East and elsewhere are facing. Rising wheat prices, local and global inflation, and tough loan conditions from the IMF are all coalescing in Egypt at once, but many other countries are in similar positions or have similar conditions brewing.\n‘Inflation Is So High in Egypt That Eggs Are a Luxury’ in the NYT‘Egypt’s pound plunges to historic low with IMF deal’ in Al Monitor\nAs background, I wrote a deeper dive into sovereign debt issues that might arise in 2023 here\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\n*(No change) *Brent Crude remains mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Market commentary and analysis vary wildly about what oil will do in 2023 and the broad analysis I shared earlier holds for many: ‘prices will peak around $95 with an average of around $90, a drop from previous 2023 estimates which reflects a gloomy outlook for the year’. See Reuters for more\nHowever, within that range, the opportunity for significant movements remain and China’s plans for a great economic boom are leading some to forecast oil moving up as high as $110 by Q3. The exact number is less important here than the reinforcement of the idea that China’s reopening will kick in soon and will lead to significant increases in demand for oil as well as other commodities by mid-year.\nIran remains worth watching as their motivation and ability to inflame tension in the Gulf remain. Talk of the rise of the petroyuan in 2023 is overblown. See this update for more. Iron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\n*(No change) *Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation and continue to creep up. (Note that the Iron and Steel index is on the Taiwanese exchange, which is closed for lunar New Year so these values are from January 17.)\nWhat to watch *(No change) *The Chinese construction and manufacturing boom that many expected in 2023 is off to a very unsteady start as COVID spreads rapidly after December’s relaxations. Sectors that had struggled under the strict COVID restrictions are suffering just as much in the current *laissez-faire *environment. This is temporarily delaying the expected economic boom but many analysts expect things to take off in late Q1 meaning that demand for oil, shipping and commodities will all rise significantly thereafter. See Bloomberg for more\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) *(No Change) *Market Volatility (VIX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Messaging from the US Fed and ECB remain consistent and the end-of-year turbulence has faded, meaning that although the news in many sectors isn’t welcome, the general market conditions seem to have been broadly accepted and priced in. Layoffs continue in tech, banking and retail while some large brick-and-mortar stores, like Bed Bath and Beyond, seem to be slipping further into difficulty. So although decision-makers have greater clarity as to what lies ahead, economic conditions are grim for many and look to remain so for short- to mid-term.\nHowever, negotiations around raising the US debt limit will be contentious and cause significant turbulence in the run up to hitting the ceiling, likely in late Q2, early Q3.See last Tuesday’s piece on debt limits for more.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Despite agreements brokered by Turkey, Russia could still impose a complete blockade on Ukrainian grain exports to exert pressure on Kyiv and her allies. Meanwhile, even strict controls and inspections for outbound shipments mean that exports remain slowed. Moscow could also conduct military operations to disrupt spring planting meaning that prices could rise again next spring and summer. Read more in AGWeek\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) *(No change) *Shipping (FBX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days.\nWhat to watch *(No change) *China’s reopening and the effects of recessions on demand in the US and elsewhere remain the biggest issues to track but there are no definitive signs to watch at the moment. Chinese New Year will depress manufacturing and shipping volumes but expect these to rise significantly in late February once the celebrations are over.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch January 27-28 : Run-off elections in the Czech RepublicJanuary 29: Liechtenstein, Constitutional referendumJanuary 29: Tunisia’s second round of the 2022 legislative elections. February 5: Cyprus, PresidentFebruary 5: Monaco, ParliamentFebruary 5: Ecuador, ReferendumFebruary 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and SenateTurkey’s elections have been brought forward to May 14.\nPalate cleansers Excel’s war on date formatting continues…\nI think ‘computationally illiterate’ is a bit harsh. ‘Spreadsheet aficionado’ sounds better.\nHow am I doing? Please let me know if these SITREPS are on the right track and let me know what I can fix. Just click below.\nMetris Users’ Guide Publish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/a-new-gas-deal-in-libya-egypts-looming-challenges-and-fiddly-fingers-caused-the-nyses-wild-tuesday/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eENI is about to sign a new gas deal with Libya which is good news but adds a fraction of what the EU needs. Fiddly fingers (that’s a technical term – look it up) caused Tuesday’s wild opening on the NYSE while it was Microsoft’s turn on Wednesday. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, several recent stories about Egypt bring the combined challenges of what prices, inflation and sovereign debt info focus. These same conditions exist in many countries so the stories are worth reading to get a sense of what’s going on in frontier markets.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A New Gas Deal in Libya, Egypt’s Looming Challenges, and Fiddly Fingers Caused the NYSE’s Wild Tuesday"},{"content":"Good morning.\nAmerica hit the debt limit yesterday: that means no more borrowing is possible until the debt ceiling is lifted. The government will keep running and paying the bills for a few months because funds have already been appropriated or because the extraordinary measures introduced by Treasury Secretary Yellen provide additional financial flexibility.\nThe political back and forth has begun: House Republicans are vowing to force the White House to make tough choices on spending cuts while the Biden administration has refused to negotiate, calling this “economic vandalism”.\nSenate Republican leader McConnel is offering welcome assurances that Senate Republicans understand the debt ceiling needs to be lifted, but he has little to no influence in the House, especially over the Freedom Caucus. The real deadline (sometime this summer) is still months away, so expect lots of grandstanding and hot air for now to little effect. Expect things to become more emotional as we enter Q2, if no extension has been agreed.\nAlso, keep in mind that calculating the exact date when all the money runs out is not an exact science so there’s no fixed deadline.\nA quick Public Service Announcement. ‘I like the commentary but I’m not sure how to use the metrics’ is something I’ve heard a few times so I’ve made some adjustments to the newsletter.\nFirst, for each metric, I’ve added a list of factors potentially impacted to help you determine how your business might be affected by fluctuations or changes.\nSecond, I’ll include this short ‘User’s Guide’ to the footer of each email which includes the eight prompt questions you can use in conjunction with the affected factors list.\nTurn your phone for a better view ⟳\nHopefully, these will make things more user-friendly. As a reminder, the detailed user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.\n(Look out for an announcement soon of tailored reports where I’ll do the heavy lifting for you.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude remains in the mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after some dips but prices seem to be trending upwards at the moment. What to Watch *(No change) *Market commentary and analysis vary wildly about what oil will do in 2023 and the broad analysis I shared earlier holds for many: ‘prices will peak around $95 with an average of around $90, a drop from previous 2023 estimates which reflects a gloomy outlook for the year’. See Reuters for more\nHowever, within that range, the opportunity for significant movements remains and China’s plans for a great economic boom are leading some to forecast oil moving up as high as $110 by Q3. The exact number is less important here than the reinforcement of the idea that China’s reopening will kick in soon and will lead to significant increases in demand for oil as well as other commodities by mid-year.\nIran remains worth watching as their motivation and ability to inflame tension in the Gulf remain. Talk of the rise of the petroyuan in 2023 is overblown. See last Friday’s update for more.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation and continue to creep up. What to watch *(No change) *The Chinese construction and manufacturing boom that many expected in 2023 is off to a very unsteady start as COVID spreads rapidly after December’s relaxations. Sectors that had struggled under the strict COVID restrictions are suffering just as much in the current *laissez-faire *environment. This is temporarily delaying the expected economic boom but many analysts expect things to take off in late Q1 meaning that demand for oil, shipping and commodities will all rise significantly thereafter. See Bloomberg for more\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nVolatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index has decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation and spikes around the New Year although there are signs it might be ticking up again.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Messaging from the US Fed and ECB remain consistent and the end-of-year turbulence has faded, meaning that although the news in many sectors isn’t welcome, the general market conditions seem to have been broadly accepted and priced in. Layoffs continue in tech, banking and retail while some large brick-and-mortar stores, like Bed Bath and Beyond, seem to be slipping further into difficulty. So although decision-makers have greater clarity as to what lies ahead, economic conditions are grim for many and look to remain so for short- to mid-term.\nHowever, negotiations around raising the US debt limit will be contentious and cause significant turbulence in the run up to hitting the ceiling, likely in late Q2, early Q3. See Tuesday’s piece on debt limits for more.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\n*(No change) *Wheat remains high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation. What to Watch *(No change) *Despite agreements brokered by Turkey, Russia could still impose a complete blockade on Ukrainian grain exports to exert pressure on Kyiv and her allies. Meanwhile, even strict controls and inspections for outbound shipments mean that exports remain slowed. Moscow could also conduct military operations to disrupt spring planting meaning that prices could rise again next spring and summer. Read more in AGWeek\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\n*(No change) *Shipping (FBX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after the spike we saw in December. What to watch (No change) China’s reopening and the effects of recessions on demand in the US and elsewhere remain the biggest issues to track but there are no definitive signs to watch at the moment. Chinese New Year will depress manufacturing and shipping volumes but expect these to rise significantly in late February once the celebrations are over.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nOther coverage and Analysis Tunisia’s Elections There are reports that some prominent opposition figures in Tunisia have been arrested or are facing legal charges, preventing them from campaigning. The government’s activities in the run-up to the second round of elections (scheduled for January 29) will affect the legitimacy of the results and set the tone for what happens after the votes are counted.\nThe Year of the Bunny is here Lunar New Year is on Sunday. 新年好 to those celebrating.\nImage: chinahighlights\nSee Thursday’s SITREP for more analysis of what the holiday means for China.\nElections this week and Next ​​18 January: Antigua and Barbuda, House of Representatives\n21 January: Slovakia, Constitutional referendum\n26 January: Tokelau, General Fono\nCampaigning has begun for Tunisia’s second round of the 2022 legislative elections. (Voting is scheduled for January 29) Random Stat 5 minutes, 30 minutes, 90 minutes Rsearch suggests that the foundation for a good night’s depends on how your day begins. Neuroscientist Dr. Andrew Huberman has an astonishing bedtime routine which isn’t for the faint-hearted but his start to the day is a bit more simple.\nHe recommends trying to get some sunlight exposure (5-10 minutes can be enough) within the first half-an-hour of getting up and delaying your morning coffee or tea for at least an hour and a half. This allows your body to wake up naturally without the artificial kick caffeine gives you which knocks your circadian rhythms off, affecting your bedtime. So if you’re finding it hard to get to sleep, maybe think about how you start your day. (Although I admit that I’m writing this sitting in the dark at 5:30am with a cup of coffee nearby …)\nHuberman’s podcast is here for you aspiring biohackers.\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/america-defaults-kind-of-using-these-metrics-and-the-value-of-delaying-your-morning-cup-of-joe/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAmerica hit the debt limit yesterday: that means no more borrowing is possible until the debt ceiling is lifted. The government will keep running and paying the bills for a few months because funds have already been appropriated or because the extraordinary measures introduced by Treasury Secretary Yellen provide additional financial flexibility.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe political back and forth has begun: House Republicans are vowing to force the White House to make tough choices on spending cuts while the Biden administration has refused to negotiate, calling this “economic vandalism”.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"America defaults (kind of), using these metrics, and the value of delaying your morning cup of Joe."},{"content":"Good morning.\nThe extent of yesterday’s earthquake in Turkey and Syria is becoming clear and many difficult days of search, rescue and recovery lie ahead. Although tragic, something like this is outside the scope of this newsletter and I can’t do justice to such a fast-moving event so I won’t be continuing to cover the response unless there is a significant development. (As a reminder, there are many reputable organizations providing relief in the affected areas and they would appreciate your support if possible but do check the credentials of any organization before donating.)\nMeanwhile, there were three stories concerning China over the last few days that were of interest (no prizes for guessing what one of them was). Each is interesting in its own right but combined, they touch on three of the biggest issues concerning China right now: China-US trade, China-US great power rivalry and Taiwan.\nEarthquake Damage and Deaths Rise in Turkey and Syria The death toll and number of injuries in Turkey and Syria continue to following Monday’s 7.5 magnitude earthquake and an almost equally strong aftershock. The response is hampered by the widespread damage to infrastructure, the snow, rain and cold, and the already dilapidated state of large parts of the affected areas. Live coverage on the BBC.\nThree Stories on China 🎈 1: The Balloon Chad Fish, via Associated Press\nThe Chinese balloon over the US last week was:\nA – An accident?B – An out-of-the-ordinary provocation by China?C – A routine activity that the US normally ignores but used as an excuse to pull out of talks this time?D – A mix of the above?\nAt the moment, the correct answer is ‘E – We don’t know’, but we do know that the incident has cranked up tension between Beijing and Washington, just when it seemed that both countries were taking steps to calm things down. There’s enormous pressure on President Biden to ‘retaliate’, but China already believes that shooting the balloon down was provocative, so any additional action could trigger a tit-for-tat cycle that would be very dangerous. See Balloonberg Bloomberg for more.\n🇹🇼 2: Taiwan’s Opposition to Visit Beijing The leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party, KMT deputy chairman, Andrew Hsia, will visit Beijing this week. The KMT is more open to dialogue with the mainland than President Tsai Ing-wen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Beijing refuses to open dialogue with President Tsai. See Reuters for more.\n🇲🇽 3: Made in ChiMexico A recent New York Times story took an in-depth look at Chinese companies setting up in Mexico to take advantage of its established manufacturing base and proximity to the US. A switch in the US away from extended supply chains to ‘nearshoring’, the duty-free advantages of North American trade deals, and the ability to mark goods as ‘Made in Mexico’, make this highly advantageous for Chinese firms.\nChinese automobile manufacturer Lizhong’s factory under construction in Monterrey, Nuevo León. Photo Luis Antonio Rojas for The New York Times\nThis is good for the Mexican economy, and workers, and America itself, which will have more reliable supply chains However, it’s also a significant complication in the US-China economic relationship, probably deepening the US dependence on China as many firms may not look past the Made in Mexico label. What that means if tensions between Beijing and Washington spill over is unclear, but it does make the relationship even more complicated. The full story is worth a read. See the full story in the NTY. On to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation but may be moving back up.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index increased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\n(No change) Wheat remains very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\n(No change) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nPalate cleansers The balloons we should all be paying attention to.\nLightsabre dueling is being recognized by fencing bodies around the world. You can join the US league here.\nA demo bout from the 2015 World Fencing Championship\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/balloons-taiwan-and-made-in-chimexico-a-chinese-threefor/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe extent of yesterday’s earthquake in Turkey and Syria is becoming clear and many difficult days of search, rescue and recovery lie ahead. Although tragic, something like this is outside the scope of this newsletter and I can’t do justice to such a fast-moving event so I won’t be continuing to cover the response unless there is a significant development. (As a reminder, there are many reputable organizations providing relief in the affected areas and they would appreciate your support if possible but do check the credentials of any organization before donating.)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Balloons, Taiwan and Made in ChiMexico: A Chinese Threefor"},{"content":"Good morning.\nA few articles on the transition to renewable energy I found this week are worth a read.\nThe first explains why crossing 5% usage is the ‘tipping point’ for mass adoption and what the current uptake looks like in different countries, and for different technologies. Read ‘Clean Energy Has a Tipping Point, and 87 Countries Have Reached It’ from Bloomberg here. The others concern the minerals we need to create the hardware and infrastructure needed to sustain this switch. This all comes down to mining enormous tracts of land to get at the minerals needed to make solar panels, EV engine components, and batteries. Congo and Indonesia are two places developing new mining projects at the moment, but China dominates the entire sector as either a source of rare earth minerals or as the backer of these enormous projects. As the US dominates the oil and gas sector, China now dominates the rare earth sector.\nRaw cobalt is processed at a mine near Lubumbashi, the Democratic Republic of Congo. Photographer: Lucien Kahozi/Bloomberg\nThese are projects at massive scale that can cause environmental damage in their own right if not managed properly, but there are also geopolitical aspects and human rights considerations to take into account. For decision-makers, that’s going to mean a different type of due diligence on the provenance of materials in your supply chain: I’ve already seen articles equating batteries made with minerals sources in the DRC with ‘blood diamonds’ from Sierra Leone because of the widespread use of children to mine cobalt. We may also be swapping out dependency on Russia and the Middle East for oil and gas for a dependency on China.. This will result in a different but nonetheless potentially fragile supply chain to think about.\nSo while decarbonization is necessary for the climate, as well as hugely beneficial for our security, getting there won’t always be pretty and we’ll have a repeat of many of the same issues we’ve seen with other resource-intensive projects. All worth keeping in mind as you look to the future.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel are very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 12: Cyprus, Presidential run-offFebruary 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and Senate\nPalate cleanser Apparently, you can have too many friends…\nTwitter seems to be capping the maximum number of people you can follow. (Not an issue I have TBH.)\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/bumps-ahead-as-the-transition-to-renewables-speeds-up/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA few articles on the transition to renewable energy I found this week are worth a read.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe first explains why crossing 5% usage is the ‘tipping point’ for mass adoption and what the current uptake looks like in different countries, and for different technologies. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-clean-energy-electric-cars-tipping-points/?srnd=green\"\u003eRead ‘Clean Energy Has a Tipping Point, and 87 Countries Have Reached It’ from Bloomberg here\u003c/a\u003e. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe others concern the minerals we need to create the hardware and infrastructure needed to sustain this switch. This all comes down to mining enormous tracts of land to get at the minerals needed to make solar panels, EV engine components, and batteries. \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-07/erg-to-spend-1-8-billion-doubling-african-copper-cobalt-output?srnd=green\"\u003eCongo\u003c/a\u003e and \u003ca href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-08/the-biggest-source-of-cobalt-outside-africa-is-now-indonesia\"\u003eIndonesia\u003c/a\u003e are two places developing new mining projects at the moment, but China dominates the entire sector as either a source of rare earth minerals or as the backer of these enormous projects. As the US dominates the oil and gas sector, \u003ca href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/01/11/the-us-is-losing-the-lithium-industry-to-china/?sh=157f233a16a1\"\u003eChina now dominates the rare earth sector\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Bumps Ahead as The Transition to Renewables Speeds Up"},{"content":"Good morning.\nThe newly released 2021 Chinese census showed a surprising drop in population for the first time in 60 years which, while not unexpected, was earlier than many had expected. Meanwhile, millions in Asia are preparing to celebrate the Lunar New Year which for many in China, means it’s the first chance to see family in years now that COVID restrictions have lifted. Sadly, that may be a bittersweet reunion for some as elderly, rural relatives may be exposed to COVID for the first time. However, the end of the celebrations in February will be the start of the big economic reopening.\nElsewhere, some interesting things are occurring with regulations that I’ll write up soon but this is a good time to refresh yourself, your team, and executives, on your regulatory obligations. Pay particular attention to any new rules that took effect on January 1st.\nI’ve been remiss in sharing election updates, but I’ve added these below and will make sure I include weekly details on upcoming elections.\nOn to the numbers.\n(Not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? Read the white paper here and look out for a detailed user’s guide coming in the early New Year.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Brent Crude has crept up slightly into the mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after some dips but prices seem to be trending upwards at the moment.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Market commentary and analysis vary wildly about what oil will do in 2023 and the broad analysis I shared earlier holds for many: ‘prices will peak around $95 with an average of around $90, a drop from previous 2023 estimates which reflects a gloomy outlook for the year’. See Reuters for more\nHowever, within that range, the opportunity for significant movements remains and China’s plans for a great economic boom are leading some to forecast oil moving up as high as $110 by Q3. The exact number is less important here than the reinforcement of the idea that China’s reopening will kick in soon and will lead to significant increases in demand for oil as well as other commodities by mid-year.\nIran remains worth watching as their motivation and ability to inflame tension in the Gulf remain. Talk of the rise of the petroyuan in 2023 is overblown. See Friday’s update for more. Iron and Steel Iron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation and continue to creep up.\nWhat to watch *(No change) *The Chinese construction and manufacturing boom that many expected in 2023 is off to a very unsteady start as COVID spreads rapidly after December’s relaxations. Sectors that had struggled under the strict COVID restrictions are suffering just as much in the current *laissez-faire *environment. This is temporarily delaying the expected economic boom but many analysts expect things to take off in late Q1 meaning that demand for oil, shipping and commodities will all rise significantly thereafter. See Bloomberg for more\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index has decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation and spikes around the New Year althoug there are signs it might be ticking up again.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Messaging from the US Fed and ECB remain consistent and the end-of-year turbulence has faded, meaning that although the news in many sectors isn’t welcome, the general market conditions seem to have been broadly accepted and priced in. Layoffs continue in tech, banking and retail, while some large brick-and-mortar stores, like Bed Bath and Beyond, seem to be slipping further into difficulty. So although decision-makers have greater clarity as to what lies ahead, economic conditions are grim for many and look to remain so for short- to mid-term.\nHowever, negotiations around raising the US debt limit will be contentious and cause significant turbulence in the run up to hitting the ceiling, likely in late Q2, early Q3. See Tuesday’s piece on debt limits for more.\nWheat Wheat remains high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation. (Note, there was a typo in Wednesday’s note that wheat was low. Prices were and remain high. Apologies for the mistake.)\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Despite agreements brokered by Turkey, Russia could still impose a complete blockade on Ukrainian grain exports to exert pressure on Kyiv and her allies. Meanwhile, even strict controls and inspections for outbound shipments mean that exports remain slowed. Moscow could also conduct military operations to disrupt spring planting meaning that prices could rise again next spring and summer. Read more in AGWeek\nOcean Freight (FBX) *(No change) *Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after the spike we saw in December. What to watch China’s reopening and the effects of recessions on demand in the US and elsewhere remain the biggest issues to track, but there are no definitive signs to watch at the moment. Chinese New Year will depress manufacturing and shipping volumes but expect these to rise significantly in late February once the celebrations are over.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nOther coverage and Analysis China’s Population Shrinks (Slightly) China’s population contracted last year, for the first time since the famines of the 1960s. The country’s population dropped by 850,000 at the end of 2021, down to 1.41 billion, as the number of deaths surpassed the number of births. (Census data for 2021 was released this Tuesday.)\nThe declining population is less due to excess COVID deaths (the number of which China remains tight-lipped about), than to the decreased number of births. Head of the Chinese National Statistics Bureau, Kang Yi, attributed the change to “…a result of drop in people’s willingness to have babies, the delay in marriage and pregnancy, as well as a fall in the number of women of child-bearing age,”.\nWhat’s most startling is not the slight decrease in the population itself, but the sharp decline in births since 2015. “​​The population drop-off came much faster than previously expected, and could act as a brake on economic growth by slowing demand for goods such as new houses. Due to the decline, the Chinese economy may struggle to overtake the US in size and the nation could lose its status as the world’s most populous country to India this year.\nAs recently as 2019, the United Nations was forecasting that China’s population would peak in 2031 and then decline, but last year the UN had revised that estimate to see a peak at the start of 2022. The labor force is already shrinking, long-term demand for houses will fall likely further, and the government may also struggle to pay for its underfunded national pension system.”\nBloomberg\nLunar New Year post Zero-COVID Lunar New Year occurs on Sunday, and the three-week-long celebration means that millions in China are traveling home to see family. Travel was severely curtailed while the zero COVID measures were in place so this will be a welcome reunion for many families. However, the mass movement presents significant challenges and dangers for elderly relatives, particularly those in more remote rural areas, many of which lack robust medical facilities and may have been less exposed to COVID. There’s sufficient worry that President Xi expressed his concerns in a New Year’s message broadcast Wednesday.\n“China’s COVID prevention and control is still in a time of stress, but the light is ahead, persistence is victory…I am most worried about the rural areas and farmers. Medical facilities are relatively weak in rural areas, thus prevention is difficult and the task is arduous,”\nPresident Xi’s in his New Year’s Message\nChina has been reticent to share accurate COVID figures and seems to have downplayed the full effects of lifting the zero COVID restrictions in December. Therefore, any statement about COVID seems notable and one suggesting that things could be bad for certain parts of the population indicates that the healthcare fallout of the New Year celebrations could be significant. There’s also a concern among epidemiologists that such a rapid spread across so many people – estimates are that 250 million people were infected in three weeks in December alone – increases the possibility of a severe mutation of the virus. The latest variant, XBB.1.5, unofficially nicknamed the Kraken, is more transmissible than previous strains, although not more dangerous. The fear is that there will be an eventual mutation that makes existing vaccines ineffective and overcomes whatever resistance we’ve built up. (See the BBC for more.) The end of the celebration in mid-February is likely to mark the start of China’s long-planned economic reopening, which has been delayed by the effects of COVID and other turbulence. However, with the New Year over and a willingness to live with COVID, expect to see all economic activity ramp up from late February onwards, driving up prices for raw materials and energy.\nElections this week and Next ​​18 January: Antigua and Barbuda, House of Representatives\n21 January: Slovakia, Constitutional referendum\n26 January: Tokelau, General Fono\nWatching: Tunisia. Campaigning has begun for Tunisia’s second round of the 2022 legislative elections. (Voting is scheduled for January 29)\nRandom Stat 32%, 6%, zero Only 32% of the trash in US gets recycled so there’s room for improvement there. However, what’s most startling is that unlike paper, metal and glass – all of which can be recycled efficiently – most of the plastic that’s sent for recycling ends up in a landfill. Only a fraction of the plastic produced, around 6%, goes for recycling in the first place but the majority of that is unsuitable for recycling. By one measure, none of the plastic packaging material produced in the US is fit for recycling. Instead, it has to be separated out and dumped. California’s “Truth in Labeling” law, SB 343 prohibits the use of the interlocking-triangles on goods unsuitable for recycling to avoid misleading consumers Curiously, the interlocking triangle symbol does not mean that plastic is recyclable. Instead, the triangles and associated numbers indicate the type of resin used in manufacturing. However, the symbols are widely seen as meaning ‘recyclable’ (not helped by the fact that we put these symbols on our recycle bins, I guess), causing a lot of confusion which can be to the advantage of businesses wanting to pass off material as recyclable when it’s never going anywhere but the landfill.\nSigh…\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/chinas-population-is-shrinking-and-moving-why-recyclable-doesnt-mean-what-you-think-it-means/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe newly released 2021 Chinese census showed a surprising drop in population for the first time in 60 years which, while not unexpected, was earlier than many had expected. Meanwhile, millions in Asia are preparing to celebrate the Lunar New Year which for many in China, means it’s the first chance to see family in years now that COVID restrictions have lifted. Sadly, that may be a bittersweet reunion for some as elderly, rural relatives may be exposed to COVID for the first time.  However, the end of the celebrations in February will be the start of the big economic reopening.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"China’s population is shrinking and moving. Why ‘recyclable’ doesn’t mean what you think it means."},{"content":"DCDR research is a succinct, useable data feed that cuts through the noise to give you the critical information you need to make data-driven decisions. The project is the outcome of over 15 years work in this area as both an analyst and decision-maker.\nThe intent: to give leaders a set of critical metrics in an easy-to-understand format to help speed up and simplify their decision-making.\nThe full white paper and methodology will be published in December 2022 and you can request early access to the reports here.\nGet Early Access\nAn extract from the white paper explaining the overall background and approach is included below.\nToo Much Noise, Too Much Signal Organizations’ risk landscapes are becoming exponentially more complex as systems become more sophisticated and intertwined. The increasing speed with which data is created increases the amount of information that may be relevant considerably and adds significant noise to any analysis.\nMoreover, as systems become more sophisticated, there is a tendency to try to track more and more data points with the idea that more is better.\nUnfortunately, this increases the amount of data to process while also increasing the amount of signal to track. This leads to the problem where a signal is not only drowned out by background noise, but is also masked by other signals. Sadly, decision-makers are hindered, not helped, by the amount of data available.\nAI will solve this issue in time but decision-makers and risk managers need a better way to make decisions today.\nWhat if Less is More? Applying a Pareto 80/20 rule or power law principle to risk analysis would mean that instead of trying to keep track of a vast array of data points, with all the associated issues outlined above, monitoring the most significant 20% would help identify the most significant changes in the threat landscape.\nThis approach isn’t perfect: there’s a long tail of lesser threats that are not being tracked as carefully. Moreover, true black Swans (evens for which we have no historic context) can still catch us off guard. However, the effectiveness of a properly-applied 80/20 distribution coupled with the efficiency of tracking 1/5 of the amount of data should still produce a net-positive effect as:\nAppropriate attention is being paid to events that are most consequential.The time spent on routine risk analysis is reduced significantly, freeing up resources to examine long-tail threats and plan for unforeseen events.This recognizes that there are ‘known unknowns’ that might affect the organization. Conversely, a system that gives the appearance of tracking everything, presents the false impression that there are no unknowns.\nThe benefits of an 80/20 approach appear to outweigh the downsides while also overcoming many of the previously mentioned problems of trying to take a big-data approach. This approach would be particularly beneficial for smaller organizations that could not afford an ML / AI solution, even if one were available. The full methodology will be published shortly. Sign up below for early access to receive the full white paper and research reports.\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/dcdr-research-tuning-out-the-noise/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eDCDR research is a succinct, useable data feed that cuts through the noise to give you the critical information you need to make data-driven decisions. The project is the outcome of over 15 years work in this area as both an analyst and decision-maker.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe intent: to give leaders a set of critical metrics in an easy-to-understand format to help speed up and simplify their decision-making.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe full white paper and methodology will be published in December 2022 and you can request early access to the reports here.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"DCDR Research – Tuning Out The Noise"},{"content":"We all want better information for our risk analysis (well, at least everything reading articles like this does) and DCDR Research is building a data feed to get you those metrics. But even when you’ve got that data, there’s often one other problem.\nHow to use it?\nNot to worry. Here’s a guide on how to use these reports specifically and if you want some more general background on using metrics in your risk assessments, take a look at these blog posts.\n(And if you really want to go deep, take my risk assessment course using code ILOVEDATA to get $50 off.)\nHow to Use the Metrics The set of metrics used by DCDR Research is based on the premise that certain factors have an outsized influence on events. By tracking these factors, we can assess how an organization is likely to be affected and react accordingly. (Read the white paper for a full explanation here.) Importantly, the limited data set cuts down on ‘noise’ in the assessment to make things faster and more efficient.\nSo DCDR Research provides you with updates on the key metrics but how do you put these to work? Here’s the process\nFirst, identify which factors affect your organization.Second, write cause and effect statements for each factor describing how a change affects your operations.Third, assess the potential impact of that change.Fourth, apply the live metrics as the threat component of your risk analysis.Fifth, decide what steps to take (either in preparation or response)\nThis might look like a lot of work, but it’s similar to all other risk analysis processes and, importantly, steps one to three are all set up so you’re only repeating four and five regularly as the data changes. (You will need to review one, two, and three every so often so it’s not quite set it and forget it, but these aren’t things you do on a day-to-day basis.)\nThat said, it will be a fair amount of work the first time, especially if you’re starting from scratch, but you’ll already have some idea of how sensitive you are to certain factors so you won’t be starting with a blank sheet of paper. And even if you were, you can take a layered approach and increase the level of detail over time. This makes the workload much more manageable and also allows you to adjust and refine things are you see the real effects of changes over time.\nFinally, keep in mind that this system isn’t designed to give you an exact risk valuation down to a few percentage points. Instead, it allows you to put your risks into a hierarchy of most to least severe so you can focus on what’s going to have the biggest impact on your organization and can plan or react accordingly. This means that while we want it to be accurate (as close to the truth as we can) we aren’t trying to be too precise (measuring to the smallest degree possible).\nFig 1 – Accuracy vs. Precision…\nHow do the Metrics Affect Your Organization? Start by reviewing the list of metrics. A few will immediately stand out as critical – e.g. crude prices determine the cost of fuel for your fleet of vehicles or wheat is a bellwether for changes to the cost of ingredients for your restaurant. You might also have previous assessments or metrics that you track as a business to help you identify which of the factors affect your business most.\nImportantly, unless you’re in a business dealing with the primary factor – in the case of crude, an oil and gas firm – you’ll always be looking for the secondary and tertiary effects of a change. Sometimes these can be complex and not immediately obvious. For example, for an aid agency, an increase in bread prices may increase demand for their services in addition to the potential for increased tension and unrest in the areas where they operate. However, others may not be so clear right away but you’ll spot their effects as you start asking ‘what if?’ and think about the primary and secondary effects that a change may have on your business. Meanwhile, some factors may have positive and negative effects. For example, if you manufacture vehicle parts, a change in gas prices, triggered by increased crude prices, could simultaneously increase demand for economy sedan parts as people economize while also increasing your shipping costs. You’ll examine these relationships in detail in the next step so just list these generally for now.\nDetermine the cause-and-effect relationships Once you’ve identified the general cause-and-effect relationships, refine these into statements along the lines of ‘if x happens, we see y, which affects our organization in z ways’. For example:\nIf gas prices rise, economy vehicle purchases go up which increases demand for our sedan parts.\nIf gas prices drop, truck purchases go up which increases demand for our commercial parts.\nIf shipping demand increases, prices increase making our imports more expensive and subject to delays as supply chains tighten, meaning that we will see delays in getting parts to our manufacturing facility, delaying assembly.\nEventually, you’ll end up with a series of statements, beginning with the main causal factor (‘if crude prices rise…’) and branching out into multiple effects on your organization. Again, capturing all of these will take time, especially if you’re just getting started, but taking a layered approach and repeating the exercise will allow you to refine things gradually.\nSome of these statements will identify positive outcomes – upside risks. We’ll look at these shortly but for now, we’ll just look at the process for assessing downside risk.\nEvaluate the effects Finally, you need to determine the magnitude of the impact. Review each cause and effect statement and look at the effect. Now, determine how much of an impact that event would have on your objectives, rating these on a simple scale, such as the example below.\nFig 2 – Example impact matrix\nThe result is a value that you can then use in conjunction with the threat rating to assess your risk using a risk = threat x impact formula. In this case, the threat elements will be based on our key metrics and the impact on your sensitivity to that factor. The impact part is where the metrics come in.\nAnything with a zero rating can be ignored or listed for review later.\nUsing the metrics Now, we can apply the metrics. Let’s start with the relative values. Relative Values In the current updates, we track key metrics over a 90-day period to help you determine if things are relatively high (expensive) or low (cheap) so you can use these relative values in your decision-making. (90-days is used as this matches most businesses’ quarterly planning cycles. Annual metrics, such as population growth, can be used in the same way for strategic planning.)\nFig 3 – Example of key metrics’ relative values\nThese relative terms (high, low) can be converted into simple values as follows:\nFig 4 – Threat values table\nYou can then calculate a risk rating by combining the relative threat value and your impact evaluation for that factor using a risk = threat x impact formula. For example, if your business is highly sensitive to changes in shipping costs, you might assess this factor as having a significant impact on your business. If prices are very high for the period, you could assess the risk as follows:\nrisk = threat (very high) x impact (significant)\n=\u0026gt; risk = 3 x 4\n=\u0026gt; risk = 12\nWe end up with a result of 12 out of a possible 15 meaning we would describe that risk as critical using the table below.\nFig 5 – Risk description table\nFinally, you take this risk rating and use it in the cause-and-effect statements you devised previously allowing you to write a risk statement like this:\nIron and steel prices pose a critical risk to the business currently. Prices are relatively very high which is going to increase the cost of our upcoming construction projects significantly and may mean that some are no longer as viable economically. From a decision-making perspective, we’ve now got a neat summary of the problem and a numerical evaluation of how severe it is. As you tackle this problem, you can refer back to the threat (iron and steel costs) and impact values to assess how effective your proposed solutions are.\nThat’s fine for dealing with how things are today, but what about forward planning?\nThat’s where the trend metrics come in.\nTrends The trend metrics show the movement of each metric over a 21-day period both as start/end values (the solid bar) and the fluctuation over that period (the arrows). In the example below, the VIX measurement of market volatility in the US was relatively flat relative to the start and end of this period but it fluctuated significantly over these three weeks. Meanwhile, ocean freight had some fluctuation, but the trend was unmistakably downwards.\nFig 6 – Example of the trends metrics\nSo if we add these values to our decision-making, we can not only say what the risk is today by taking the relative value, but we can have a sense of where things are going in the short term. That way, you can avoid underreacting to a metric that’s high but is probably moving higher, or overreacting to something that may have peaked and be moving downwards. Something as volatile as the VIX example above, lets you know that you’re making decisions in a period of great uncertainty.\nThese trends metrics shouldn’t be mistaken for predictions or forecasts but these do give you a sense of how a metric is behaving. So in addition to the relative value, you can use this trending valuation in your decision-making by combining this trend information with your original risk statement.\nIron and steel prices pose a significant risk to the business currently. Prices are relatively very high which is going to increase the cost of our upcoming construction projects significantly and may mean that some are no longer as viable economically. Prices have been fluctuating slightly but seem to be steadily increasing.\nA statement like this would be a good starting point for discussion. You’ve put the data into context, briefly noted how this affects your business, and given a sense of how the situation is trending (without offering a long-term prediction). More generally, you can use your cause-and-effect statements to determine what effect a trend might have on your organization and plan accordingly.\nRisk vs Opportunity Until now, we’ve discussed how to use the merics to assess risks – the things that can get in the way of your success. But what about the reverse? Can you also use the metrics to identify opportunities?\nIn short, yes: you just need to add a set of negative values.\nYou’ll use exactly the same process and values as above but add a set of negative values to the relative terms. Then, go back to the impact statements and clarify which direction has a negative impact, and which is positive. These will be specific to your business or organization: for example, in the example of fuel prices, a low price is good for drivers but bad for refineries.\nApply that positive and negative difference to your threat metrics so you end up with a set of values from -3 to +3.\nFig 7 – Threat values table showing positive and negative values\nNow, when you assess your risk, you have a range from -15 (critical downside risk) to +15 (critical upside/opportunity) which you can describe using the terms in the risk description table in Fig 5 above.\nIf we go back to the iron and steel example from earlier, we can see how a reversal of prices could create an opportunity for the same firm. Expensive steel creates difficulties for them, so they use the negative values for high prices, meaning that the original risk calculations would become:\nevaluation = negative (very high) x impact (significant)\n=\u0026gt; -3 x 4\n=\u0026gt; -12 or Critical risk\nHowever, if prices suddenly dropped and were relatively low, the calculations would look like this:\nevaluation = positive (low) x impact (significant)\n=\u0026gt; 2 x 4\n=\u0026gt; 8 or Significant opportunity\nNow, instead of worrying that their projects might be financially challenging, new opportunities may have arisen, or they may have the chance to stock up on supplies to take advantage of the low prices, improving their margins.\nWhatever the result, they’ve used the same process to identify an opportunity.\nThis can be a little difficult to manage initially, and you can get stuck in conversations where you have double negatives, and things get confusing fast. However, if you keep in mind which direction is good and which is bad, you’ll easily be able to apply the negative and positive values to your calculations.\nWhat to watch for Always keep in mind that these metrics are designed to give you an accurate but not precise view of the risk you face. But these data, especially the trend lines are not predictions and while a trend might continue for a while, there can be fluctuations within that pattern (look at the range of values in the VIX above as an example). Moreover, there can always be macro events that cause huge changes very quickly. However, even though we’re not in the prediction business, there are things that are worth tracking as a way to get a little early warning of how things might change.\nAnd that’s where the final part of the updates comes in.\nThe reports flag the things we think will change the situation by adding a ‘what to watch’ comment where possible. These aren’t the only things that can move a market or affect a metric, but these events are what we think will have an outsized impact on things: Beijing’s policies affect iron, steel, oil and shipping, while what the Chair of the Fed says will move the US markets with knock-on effects worldwide. Like these two examples, some things may seem like no-brainers but others, like tension over number plates in Kosovo, may not be on most people’s radar.\nGoing back to your own cause-and-effect statements, and understanding what affects your business, will let you develop some of your own ‘watch lists’ of things to track alongside our metrics. Consider this some fine-tuning you’re adding to our base model.\nThen, when you see one of these flags ‘fluttering’, you can review the situation in a bit more detail, ask ‘what if..?’ and take appropriate steps.\nSummary The intent is to develop an accurate, but imprecise model, to help decision-makers by tracking some metrics that have an out-sized effect on a wide range of factors. By illustrating where these metrics fall relative to the last 90 days (e.g. prices are high vs. prices are very low) and showing which way they’re moving, we’re helping you and other decision-makers narrow the scope of your discussion while adding additional context.\nThat way, instead of trying to track every price fluctuation or market movement, and then do your own analysis, these metrics help you focus on what matters most. There will still be particular factors relevant to your business or industry and you must still monitor these. However, these metrics will help you contextualize the ‘everything else’, particularly factors that you might not have thought were relevant previously.\nAs always, remember that these aren’t predictions, and prices and values are delayed by at least 12 hours so do not use these metrics for tactical decision-making.\nChanges / Feedback I want to get this model right so I will keep iterating so expect to see tweaks along the way (the changelog is here). I need help! Your feedback and insight are critical so please let me know what you think. Drop me a line at andrew@dcdr.io with your thoughts.\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/dcdr-research-users-guide-draft/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWe all want better information for our risk analysis (well, at least everything reading articles like this does) and DCDR Research is building a data feed to get you those metrics. But even when you’ve got that data, there’s often one other problem.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHow to use it?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot to worry. Here’s a guide on how to use these reports specifically and if you want some more general background on using metrics in your risk assessments, \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/category/risk-metrics/\"\u003etake a look at these blog posts\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"DCDR Research: User’s Guide DRAFT"},{"content":"Good morning.\nI had to take a personal day on Tuesday, so it’s just Chad with the metrics today. Apologies, and I’ll be back with a proper SITREP tomorrow.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation but may be moving up.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\n(No change) Wheat remains very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\n(No change) Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 12: Cyprus, Presidential run-offFebruary 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and Senate\nPalate Cleanser Like I said, just the facts today…\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/dragnet-edition-just-the-facts/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI had to take a personal day on Tuesday, so it’s just Chad with the metrics today. Apologies, and I’ll be back with a proper SITREP tomorrow.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn to the numbers\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but \u003ca href=\"https://research.dcdr.io/p/dcdr-research-users-guide-draft\"\u003ethe user’s guide is here\u003c/a\u003e. Want to know more? \u003ca href=\"https://research.dcdr.io/p/risk-metrics-white-paper\"\u003eRead the white paper\u003c/a\u003e.)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"relative-values-90-days\"\u003eRelative Values (90-Days)\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTurn your phone for a better view ⟳\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Dragnet Edition: Just the Facts"},{"content":" ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖[ ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖 ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖 Good morning.\nThere were a few interesting pieces of news on ESG compliance and regulations that are worth keeping an eye on. Many of these rules are yet to come into force, but companies should start thinking about how they will meet these requirements (and who will take the lead). Also, there’s some positive news on the ransomware front.\nUnfortunately, the metrics didn’t update properly today. I’ve sent Chad (the robot who manages the data) off for a spa day while I fix things, and I apologize that there aren’t any numbers today.\nCoverage and Analysis ESG Round Up Two ESG-related items caught my eye over the last week.\nEU Anti-Greenwashing Legislation The EU is introducing legislation to counter greenwashing – misleading environmental claims – in response to concerns that companies are being dishonest about their environmental credentials. One analysis by the European Commission found that over 50% of claims contained “vague, misleading or unfounded information” (or as we used to call them, ‘lies’), illustrating how widespread the problem is. EU countries would have to ensure environmental claims are proven against a science-based methodology, such as a “product environmental footprint” framework that tracks environmental impacts across 16 categories including the air and climate change.\n“By fighting greenwashing, the proposal will ensure a level playing field for businesses when marketing their greenness,” said the draft, which could still change before it is published.\nReuters\nIt would be up to EU countries to put in place appropriate systems (and fines) to bring the eventual rules into force but this would clarify decision-making for consumers who would be more assured of the veracity of any green claims made by a company. Companies will have an additional compliance burden for any claims they make but should be able to reap a ‘green dividend’ from consumers who want to favor firms taking steps to address climate change. See Reuters for more.\nCompanies Aren’t Ready for ESG Reporting Regulations An FT piece this weekend (from the print edition, so no link, I’m afraid) notes that although companies are facing climate reporting requirements around the world, many seem far from ready. A move from voluntary to mandatory reporting raises the reporting requirements and level of detail required. This is outside the expertise of many of the heads of ESG who will be subject matter experts in that domain, not compliance and audit. The Big Four accounting firms are pushing companies to bring ESG reporting into their existing audit and reporting frameworks which does offer some advantages: all major firms have an experienced team who can ensure that reports are compiled and submitted in line with the appropriate guidelines. However, being a crack financial auditor doesn’t necessarily lend itself to evaluating the efficacy of a DEI policy or qualitative returns to the community of a social-impact program. Therefore there still needs to be a mix of expertise to ensure that the regulatory and practical aspects of these programs are met. Otherwise, the ‘tick box’ aspect of ESG may be in great shape while the initiatives themselves are ostensibly worthless.\nEventually, a new class of specialist ESG auditors who bring a mix of technical and regulatory expertise to bear will emerge. [ https://www.thelykeion.com/101-in-sustainable-finance/ ](https://www.thelykeion.com/101-in-sustainable-finance/\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/esg-compliance-a-drop-in-ransomware-attacks-and-a-chads-on-a-spa-day-f0-9f-a4-96/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"esg-compliance-a-drop-in-ransomware-attacks-and-a-chads-on-a-spa-day-\"\u003eESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere were a few interesting pieces of news on ESG compliance and regulations that are worth keeping an eye on. Many of these rules are yet to come into force, but companies should start thinking about how they will meet these requirements (and who will take the lead). Also, there’s some positive news on the ransomware front.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad's on a Spa Day"},{"content":"Good morning.\nThere were a few interesting pieces of news on ESG compliance and regulations that are worth keeping an eye on. Many of these rules are yet to come into force, but companies should start thinking about how they will meet these requirements (and who will take the lead). Also, there’s some positive news on the ransomware front.\nUnfortunately, the metrics didn’t update properly today. I’ve sent Chad (the robot who manages the data) off for a spa day while I fix things, and I apologize that there aren’t any numbers today.\nCoverage and Analysis ESG Round Up Two ESG-related items caught my eye over the last week.\nEU Anti-Greenwashing Legislation The EU is introducing legislation to counter greenwashing – misleading environmental claims – in response to concerns that companies are being dishonest about their environmental credentials. One analysis by the European Commission found that over 50% of claims contained “vague, misleading or unfounded information” (or as we used to call them, ‘lies’), illustrating how widespread the problem is. EU countries would have to ensure environmental claims are proven against a science-based methodology, such as a “product environmental footprint” framework that tracks environmental impacts across 16 categories including the air and climate change.\n“By fighting greenwashing, the proposal will ensure a level playing field for businesses when marketing their greenness,” said the draft, which could still change before it is published.\nReuters\nIt would be up to EU countries to put in place appropriate systems (and fines) to bring the eventual rules into force but this would clarify decision-making for consumers who would be more assured of the veracity of any green claims made by a company. Companies will have an additional compliance burden for any claims they make but should be able to reap a ‘green dividend’ from consumers who want to favor firms taking steps to address climate change. See Reuters for more.\nCompanies Aren’t Ready for ESG Reporting Regulations An FT piece this weekend (from the print edition, so no link, I’m afraid) notes that although companies are facing climate reporting requirements around the world, many seem far from ready. A move from voluntary to mandatory reporting raises the reporting requirements and level of detail required. This is outside the expertise of many of the heads of ESG who will be subject matter experts in that domain, not compliance and audit. The Big Four accounting firms are pushing companies to bring ESG reporting into their existing audit and reporting frameworks which does offer some advantages: all major firms have an experienced team who can ensure that reports are compiled and submitted in line with the appropriate guidelines. However, being a crack financial auditor doesn’t necessarily lend itself to evaluating the efficacy of a DEI policy or qualitative returns to the community of a social-impact program. Therefore there still needs to be a mix of expertise to ensure that the regulatory and practical aspects of these programs are met. Otherwise, the ‘tick box’ aspect of ESG may be in great shape while the initiatives themselves are ostensibly worthless.\nEventually, a new class of specialist ESG auditors who bring a mix of technical and regulatory expertise to bear will emerge. https://www.thelykeion.com/101-in-sustainable-finance/\nHowever, I still believe that the best way forward for ESG is to break it up as the individual elements are all too mature now to remain part of a single portfolio. This would bring much-needed clarity to these essential elements of business and also avoid the kinds of dissonance we see where Exxon can have a better ESG rating than Tesla. (Your feelings towards Elon Musk should not be the empirical basis for evaluating a company.)\nNevertheless, it’s a good time to think about your ESG programs, look at the kinds of regulations that may be coming your way, and think about how you’ll meet the reporting requirements. The decision on ownership should be given careful thought as, once someone owns a portfolio, it is difficult to get them to give it up.\nRansomware Payments Were Down in 2022 A recent report from Chainalysis noted that ransomware payments were down significantly in 2022. They estimate that 2022 ransomware payments were $456.8 million, compared to $765.6 million in 2021. They note that there is often a delay in tracking down all payments and that the 2022 number could rise but the overall trend was mistakenly down.\nImportantly, the report notes that the number of attacks has not decreased: instead, companies are less willing to pay ransoms. A number of factors may be influencing this change but chief among them is likely to be the increased pressure from law enforcement not to pay, insurance companies tightening up on the instances where they will pay for cyber attack damage, and better contingencies in many firms, making it easier to recover from an attack. The report also explained that the majority of ransomware attacks seem to be ‘ransomware as a service’ where a small group develops and controls the ransomware strains, which are then used by a network of criminals to carry out the attacks, paying a fee for the use of the strain. The “gig economy, but for ransomware” as the report calls it, makes the sector seem much larger than it actually is.\nThe fluidity with which affiliates move between ransomware brands makes the sector appear larger than it really is. “The number of core individuals involved in ransomware is incredibly small versus perception, maybe a couple hundred,” said Bill Siegel, CEO and co-founder of ransomware incident response firm Coveware. “It’s the same criminals, they’re just repainting their get-away cars.” Siegel indicated this activity has increased of late, and that affiliates are now much more likely to switch strains frequently rather than stick with one for an extended period of time.\nBill Siegel, CEO and co-founder of Coveware, quoted in the Chainalysis report\nInterestingly, this is not dissimilar to how Anonymous, the hacking collective, operated at its peak. A handful of highly adept, technical coders built and directed the tools, which were then deployed by hundreds of ‘script kiddies’.\nThe report focuses on the trends in how attacks are conducted but does include some tips and reminders of what firms should be doing to make themselves less vulnerable to these types of attacks.\nOf course, the best-case scenario is for organizations not to fall victim to ransomware attacks in the first place. To that end, Liska recommends organizations run recurring tabletop exercises, in which all relevant teams — cybersecurity, networking, IT, server administration, backup teams, PR, finance, etc. — meet with leadership to establish how the organization can keep itself secure, identify vulnerabilities, and understand who’s responsible for all aspects of security. “Having a realistic picture of where your organization stands and what its weaknesses and strengths are will better prepare everyone in the event your organization is hit with a ransomware attack, and it also makes leadership aware of where it needs to invest to better secure the network, ahead of an attack,” said Liska. (Allan Liska, the Ransomware Sommelier)\nChainalysis\nRead the full report here\nAs a side note, the crypto market fluctuated very significantly in 2022, so I’m curious if this had an effect on the dollar amount payouts for that period. For example, a 1BTC ransom demand made in January 2022 was the equivalent of around $38,000. This would have paid out $47K if paid in March but only $20K in June.\nA chart from the Chainalysis reported I annotated with the number of Bitcoin equivalents\nThe report doesn’t seem to mention these fluctuations and may have accounted for these differences, but it will be interesting to see if the downward trend continues into 2023 as the crypto market recovers.\nElection Watch 26 January: Tokelau, General Fono29 January: Liechtenstein, Constitutional referendumCampaigning has begin for Tunisia’s second round of the 2022 legislative elections. (Voting is scheduled for January 29)Turkey’s elections have been brought forward to May 14.\nPalate cleanser Bye Chad. See you tomorrow.\nAgain, my apologies that there aren’t any metrics today.\nI need your feedback – please share your thoughts.\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/esg-compliance-a-drop-in-ransomware-attacks-and-a-chads-on-a-spa-day-/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere were a few interesting pieces of news on ESG compliance and regulations that are worth keeping an eye on. Many of these rules are yet to come into force, but companies should start thinking about how they will meet these requirements (and who will take the lead). Also, there’s some positive news on the ransomware front.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately, the metrics didn’t update properly today. I’ve sent Chad (the robot who manages the data) off for a spa day while I fix things, and I apologize that there aren’t any numbers today.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖"},{"content":"GM and welcome to the ‘So What’ briefing: a shot of additional angst to go with your morning chai latte macchiato.\nLet’s dive in\n1,200 Words, reading time 5 mins 6 secs\nNutritional information\nToday’s post contains hints of regulation\nESG under attack as ‘woke’ capital In a lot of recent coverage, ESG (environmental, social \u0026amp; governance) is being termed ‘woke’ capitalism by both supporters and detractors of the investment class. This perception further strengthens the sense that, rather than measuring how well a firm or fund performs in some important non-operational ways, ESG is nothing more than a form of virtue signaling and/or a scam.\nThe FT\n(Notably, in the same week that this headline appeared in the FT, another article by an ESG enthusiast was titled Critics of ‘woke’ capitalism are wrong. It seems the ‘woke’ label is sticky.)\nThere seem to be three big developments around ESG at the moment.\nFor many, ESG = ‘woke’ First, due to the ‘social’ element of ESG being heavily dominated by cultural issues in the US, being ‘for’ ESG is interpreted as companies being sympathetic to progressive causes. This pulls them into the US culture wars where they are presumed to have taken a side before they even become involved in an issue. This has positive and negative effects on a firm’s reputation and finances: those for an issue see them as an ally while opponents see it as an enemy. (Although there seems to be research that suggests that negative sentiments outweigh positive ones. This would mean that while an angry customer might boycott your firm an equally supportive member of the public is less likely to switch brands to support you. (No sources for this as I need to do some more digging here.)\nAnti-ESG Funds are springing up Second, anti-ESG funds are emerging to invest in industries like fossil fuels.\nArticle 5: an attack on one is an attack on all Third, attacks on any part of ESG harm the whole: the environmental, social \u0026amp; governance elements are equally damaged, even if an attack originates from a disagreement over social issues.\nThe Downside of ESG Despite its noble origins – arguably the manifestation of Google’s motto ‘don’t be evil’ – ESG is not in great shape, and some criticism appears valid.\nFirst, reporting is uneven and lacks a common standard. Plus, much of the data used in ESG scoring is unverified or self-reported. (Something initiatives like The Green Impact Exchange are trying to address [Disclaimer, I’m friends with one of the founders, but he didn’t put me up to this.])\nSecond, initiatives often appear more style than substance. Greenwashing is rampant, and simply adding more underrepresented groups to the c-suite does not solve system inequalities across a whole firm. This means that instead of making meaningful strides to address real issues, the focus is on ESG theater.\nhttps://www.thelykeion.com/101-in-sustainable-finance/\nThird, ESG is too big to be clumped together now Combining all three elements was expedient and sensible at the outset of the initiative and helped make companies more responsible for matters other than pure shareholder returns, but it has run its course. Each element of ESG has become more sophisticated and mature, meaning that other than all being broadly ‘for the good,’ these elements don’t align as neatly. For example, a nuclear power plant would score highly in the E column but will be politically toxic for many. While E, S, and G are all lumped together, there’s no easy way to rate a firm using a single metric. However, I’d suggest this is a positive development that illustrates the maturity of the concept. Similar to how health, safety, security, and environment (HSSE) were lumped together initially but, as these functions matured and became embedded in corporate culture, they drifted apart operationally. Although the overall intent of keeping the company’s staff, assets, neighbors, and environment safe remained, trying to manage HSSE as a block would be unworkable for most firms. Similarly, ESG has now matured to the point where – as a victim of its own success – the three elements no longer sit as neatly together.\nSo What? ESG is complex, and there are real regulatory requirements to meet, depending upon your jurisdiction, but here are four suggestions that I believe can make ESG programs more manageable.\nFirms should break up ESG and address each matter separately. Addressing each issue separately allows firms to manage the associated risks from each threat category more effectively. Managing and reporting these separately (even if still under the broad heading of ESG to distinguish from operational or financial risks) will allow CROs to add nuance and distinction to their reports to help shareholders and other parties genuinely understand how the firm is performing in each area. Although this may seem like a burden on small firms, the same effect can be achieved by addressing each topic separately instead of addressing the whole ESG landscape at once.\nTreat ESG ratings as a measure of progress, not a score. Treating ESG (collectively or individually) as a score misses the point. The intent is not to get an A+ or 100%: the goal is for firms to first, do no harm, and second, create a net positive for society. However, it’s up to each firm to state what its goals are for each element in ESG. These start with adhering to laws and regulations. Then, it is up to the firm to determine what it wants to achieve according to its business and values (see the next point). Once these goals are set, the firm can then measure progress along each of these pathways, giving shareholders and interested parties a better idea of how the firm is progressing, not just measuring up to an arbitrary standard.\nBut when you do measure, measure realistically Pick some clear, hard metrics and base your reporting on these. Then, stick to these. Avoid the trend of the day or having hucksters come in and offer to audit you on an opaque standard. By all means, have someone conduct an audit, but make sure it’s somehting you’ll be able to track progress against and that there are some objective measurements involved. https-//imgflip.com/memetemplate/378730914/esg-score\n‘186 metrics”: feels like a threat, not a promise…\nStart with purpose and values. Companies provide goods and services first and foremost, and without fulfilling that core purpose (we make [this] for [them]), there is no firm, no shareholder return, and no jobs. However, a firm should also have a core set of values that it prizes – its ethical OS, for want of a better term. Where a firm can and wants to contribute to the social good, all the better, but that can’t be at the expense of the mission. Looking at the elements of ESG through this mission and values lens will help CEOS and executives decide what steps to take in each area. Moreover, grounding everything in mission and values makes it much easier to explain and defend the decisions you’ve made and to stay consistent.\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/esg-is-under-attack-so-what-2/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGM and welcome to the ‘So What’ briefing: a shot of additional angst to go with your morning chai latte macchiato.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLet’s dive in\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1,200 Words, reading time 5 mins 6 secs\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNutritional information\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eToday’s post contains hints of regulation\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"esg-under-attack-as-woke-capital\"\u003eESG under attack as ‘woke’ capital\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn a lot of recent coverage, ESG (environmental, social \u0026amp; governance) is being termed ‘woke’ capitalism by both supporters and detractors of the investment class. This perception further strengthens the sense that, rather than measuring how well a firm or fund performs in some important non-operational ways, ESG is nothing more than a form of virtue signaling and/or a scam.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"ESG is Under Attack: So What?"},{"content":"Good morning.\nSome quick updates today plus I’m sharing an example of the personalized SITREPS I announced yesterday. Famine in the Horn of Africa and North Korea Wheat and grain prices remain high making many food staples more expensive around the world but there are also many who are living in famine or near-famine conditions (Axios). The Horn of Africa is undergoing another period of drought following its fifth failed rainy season. This places millions in Somalia, Eastern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya in severe danger of acute malnutrition. (UNICEF)\nThere are also reports from North Korea of severe food shortages which have prompted an unusual, emergency meeting of the country’s ruling party. The government in Seol has raised concerns about the situation in North Korea and believes that food is in short supply but not at famine levels yet. (Reuters) Meanwhile, North Korea observers from US group 38-North recently published an article titled “Food Insecurity in North Korea Is at Its Worst Since the 1990s Famine”, an event when it is estimated that between 600,000 and over 1 million North Koreans starved. (38 North)\nAlthough tragic, the effects of these two humanitarian disasters will remain relatively contained but North Korea does have a history of provocative actions when under pressure.\nA new North Korean ICBM on display earlier this month. Image: North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS These have included missile launches and military exercises close to the border with South Korea, actions that Pyongyang may resort to in order to force some kind of an aid deal while still projecting strength externally and internally.\nOil Demand Forecasts The IEA just updated its forecast for global oil demand, estimating that the world will require an additional 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year, largely due to China’s economic reopening. However, the report believes that a surplus will remain through the first half of the year due to current oversupply, but that demand will start to outstrip production in the second half of the year. (Bloomberg)\nThis would suggest minor price fluctuations through mid-year but that price increases are more likely in the second half of the year.\nMore on OPEC + production plans in Al Monitor\nOn to the personalized numbers…\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\n(As I announced yesterday, I’m now rolling out personalized reports where the metrics are put into context for your organization, along with an assessment of the risk and appropriate mitigation measures. As an example, I’ll be sharing reports for an example firm for the rest of the week but don’t worry, the key metrics are still included.\nIf you’d like to try the custom reports, try a trial of the PRO plan here\nCustomized Daily SITREP for Tarjuman LLC (example) Current risk / opportunity profile Shipping Summary\nThe Shipping (FBX) index is currently $1976.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, shipping presents a Significant opportunity.\nResponse considerations\nImpliment contingencies:\nPre-book next quarter’s shipments\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nWheat Summary\nWheat is currently $680.5.\nWheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little flutuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, wheat presents a Low risk.\nResponse considerations\nConduct routine monitoring\nMarket Volatility Summary\nThe Market Volatility (VIX) is currently 18.91.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, volatility presents a Critical opportunity.\nResponse considerations\nImpliment contingencies:\nLook for competitors in distress and consider buy-out\nIron and Steel Summary\nThe Iron and Steel index is currently $148.66.\nIron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, iron and steel present a Low opportunity.\nResponse considerations\nConduct routine monitoring\nOil Summary\nBrent Crude futures are currently $81.35.\nBrent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, oil prices present a Low risk.\nResponse considerations\nConduct routine monitoring\n—-\nIf you like the idea of customized SITREPs with:\nFull daily SITREPS with all the data and analysisCustomized risk data for your organizationIn-depth research reports.\nOh, and you’ll save yourself hours each week…\nYou can start a 7-day trial of the custom SITREPS here.\nPalate cleanser This rings a bell…\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/famine-oil-production-forecasts-and-custom-metrics/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSome quick updates today plus I’m sharing an example of the personalized SITREPS I announced yesterday. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"famine-in-the-horn-of-africa-and-north-korea\"\u003eFamine in the Horn of Africa and North Korea\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWheat and grain prices remain high making many food staples more expensive around the world but there are also many who are living in famine or near-famine conditions (\u003ca href=\"https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/famine-somalia-drought\"\u003eAxios\u003c/a\u003e). The Horn of Africa is undergoing another period of drought following its fifth failed rainy season. This places millions in Somalia, Eastern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya in severe danger of acute malnutrition. (\u003ca href=\"https://www.unicefusa.org/mission/emergencies/food-crises/horn-africa\"\u003eUNICEF\u003c/a\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Famine, Oil Production Forecasts, and Custom Metrics"},{"content":"Good morning.\nThere’s some macroeconomic analysis that’s worth your time today (or over the weekend), plus a belated recommendation to read the WEF’s Global Risk Report if you haven’t already. Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day.\nAnd thanks to everyone who voted on the layout. The overwhelming response was that you prefer having the analysis first so we’ll stick with this format and starting next week, I’m going to trim the commentary around the metrics unless there’s a big event or change. That should streamline things even more The Economy: Back to Normal or is a Bigger Change Underway? In a recent interview, investor and formal market analyst Bill Gurley noted that the economic conditions we’re settling into are a reversion to what normal looks like. He pointed out that growth cycles are normally around seven years, so we were well overdue a correction now that the crash of 2008 is so far behind us. Therefore, according to Gurley, the economic conditions we’ll see over the next few years aren’t a pause before we get back to normal: this is normal and companies need to adapt accordingly.\nMeanwhile, Howards Marks of Oaktree Capital has suggested that an even bigger change is underway and, instead of reverting to what a normal economy looks like, a bigger change is underway,\n“In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen a number of economic cycles, pendulum swings, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two real sea changes. I think we may be in the midst of a third one today.”\nHowards Marks\nMarks includes this ‘then and now’ comparison in his memo but notes that the conditions in the 2009-2021 column also prevailed “for much of the last 40 years.”\nRead his memo in full here\nOf course, there’s more to the world than the US economy but many other countries have had similar conditions of zero or close to zero interest rates, high employment, and low inflation for many years. So while there’s belt-tightening going on around the globe, it’s worth spending some time considering these perspectives to determine if this is a short-term measure or if this is something everyone needs to adapt to. If it’s the latter, those who adapt fastest will significantly reduce their risk and be able to take advantage of the opportunities that arise. The WEF’s Global Risks Report 2023 The World Economic Forum / Marsh Global Risks Report 2023 came out a couple of weeks ago, so I am very late to the party in bringing it up but, if you’re like me and haven’t dug in yet, it’s well worth a read. As you’d expect, it’s beautifully produced, information-dense and full of great charts.\nHow Crises are Interrelated: (C) WEF\n​​As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine approaches one year, economies and societies will not easily rebound from continued shocks. In this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey, more than four in five respondents anticipated consistent volatility over the next two years. The persistence of these crises is already reshaping the world that we live in, ushering in economic and technological fragmentation. A continued push for national resilience in strategic sectors will come at a cost – one that only a few economies can bear. Geopolitical dynamics are also creating significant headwinds for global cooperation, which often acts as a guardrail to these global risks.\nSaadia Zahidi in the preface to the report\nThe Full Report is available here\nHolocaust Remembrance Day Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day and the UK’s Holocaust Memorial Day Trust focus is on ordinary people: the ordinary people who were the victims and perpetrators of the Holocaust as well as the genocides that followed.\nOrdinary people were involved in all aspects of the Holocaust, Nazi persecution of other groups, and in the genocides that took place in Cambodia, Rwanda, Bosnia and Darfur. Ordinary people were perpetrators, bystanders, rescuers, witnesses – and ordinary people were victims. …\nWe are all ordinary people today who can be extraordinary in our actions. We can all make decisions to challenge prejudice, stand up to hatred, to speak out against identity-based persecution, to shop responsibly.\nOrdinary people are also the ones who drive Holocaust Memorial Day, who lead on community commemorations, who support and encourage everyone around them to take part in remembrance and education projects.\nThe Holocaust Memorial Day Trust\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\n*(No change) *Brent Crude remains mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Market commentary and analysis vary wildly about what oil will do in 2023 and the broad analysis I shared earlier holds for many: ‘prices will peak around $95 with an average of around $90, a drop from previous 2023 estimates which reflects a gloomy outlook for the year’. See Reuters for more\nHowever, within that range, the opportunity for significant movements remain and China’s plans for a great economic boom are leading some to forecast oil moving up as high as $110 by Q3. The exact number is less important here than the reinforcement of the idea that China’s reopening will kick in soon and will lead to significant increases in demand for oil as well as other commodities by mid-year.\nIran remains worth watching as their motivation and ability to inflame tension in the Gulf remain. Talk of the rise of the petroyuan in 2023 is overblown. See this update for more. Iron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\n*(No change) *Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation and continue to creep up. (Note that the Iron and Steel index is on the Taiwanese exchange, which is closed for lunar New Year so these values are from January 17.)\nWhat to watch *(No change) *The Chinese construction and manufacturing boom that many expected in 2023 is off to a very unsteady start as COVID spreads rapidly after December’s relaxations. Sectors that had struggled under the strict COVID restrictions are suffering just as much in the current *laissez-faire *environment. This is temporarily delaying the expected economic boom but many analysts expect things to take off in late Q1 meaning that demand for oil, shipping and commodities will all rise significantly thereafter.\nSee Bloomberg for more\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\n*(No Change) *Market Volatility (VIX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Messaging from the US Fed and ECB remain consistent and the end-of-year turbulence has faded, meaning that although the news in many sectors isn’t welcome, the general market conditions seem to have been broadly accepted and priced in. Layoffs continue in tech, banking and retail while some large brick-and-mortar stores, like Bed Bath and Beyond, seem to be slipping further into difficulty. So although decision-makers have greater clarity as to what lies ahead, economic conditions are grim for many and look to remain so for short- to mid-term.\nHowever, negotiations around raising the US debt limit will be contentious and cause significant turbulence in the run up to hitting the ceiling, likely in late Q2, early Q3.See last Tuesday’s piece on debt limits for more.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is mid-range for this 90-day interval as higher prices settle in. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Despite agreements brokered by Turkey, Russia could still impose a complete blockade on Ukrainian grain exports to exert pressure on Kyiv and her allies. Meanwhile, even strict controls and inspections for outbound shipments mean that exports remain slowed. Moscow could also conduct military operations to disrupt spring planting meaning that prices could rise again next spring and summer. Read more in AGWeek\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\n*(No change) *Shipping (FBX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after some fluctuation.\nWhat to watch *(No change) *China’s reopening and the effects of recessions on demand in the US and elsewhere remain the biggest issues to track but there are no definitive signs to watch at the moment. Chinese New Year will depress manufacturing and shipping volumes but expect these to rise significantly in late February once the celebrations are over.\n🚢 Congratulations to our data partner Freightos which just listed on the NASDAQ\nPalate cleanser How’d I do this week?\nPS – If you’re looking for a quick digest of international news, take a look at International Intrigue. I’ve been reading them over the last week and really enjoying their coverage.\nInternational Intrigue The global affairs briefing you’ll actually look forward to reading.\nSubscribe\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/for-economies-this-is-normal-the-wefs-2023-risk-forecast-holocaust-remembrance-day/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere’s some macroeconomic analysis that’s worth your time today (or over the weekend), plus a belated recommendation to read the WEF’s Global Risk Report if you haven’t already. Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd thanks to everyone who voted on the layout. The overwhelming response was that you prefer having the analysis first so we’ll stick with this format and starting next week, I’m going to trim the commentary around the metrics unless there’s a big event or change. That should streamline things even more \u003c/p\u003e","title":"For Economies “This Is Normal”, the WEF’s 2023 Risk Forecast, Holocaust Remembrance Day."},{"content":"A sad morning.\nThe death toll in Turkey and Syria following Monday’s terrible earthquake is rising and the latest death toll at the time of writing was over 1,000 but this number has been rising steadily all morning. The full toll will be many times higher while thousands more are injured or without shelter and power. The recovery and aid operations will be complex and likely hampered by political and security considerations. Closer to home, a judge’s ruling in Delaware means that company executives may be held personally responsible for regulatory and governance failures.\nEarthquake in Turkey and Syria A 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit southern Turkey early on Monday morning, causing widespread damage across the border region and into North Syria. This is one of the most powerful earthquakes ever to hit Turkey. Initial reports were of over 500 hundred dead and thousands injured but these numbers are rising rapidly and the latest report is of over 1,000 dead: it will be days before the true extent is known. Map via the BBC\nInternational agencies are offering support to local responders but getting large amounts of aid and support into Syria will be a complicated operation for western organizations. President Erdogan’s handling of the response will also come under great scrutiny in the next few days once the initial shock has worn off. See the BBC for live updates.\nPersonal Liability in the C-Suite A shareholder lawsuit against a former McDonalds’ executive signals a significant change in how company executives can be held personally liable for company failures. A Delaware judge approved the lawsuit which accuses the former Chief Human Resources officer, David Fairhurst, of neglecting his fiduciary duties to the fast-food chain by poorly handling reports of systemic sexual harassment at the firm. Fairhurst has been accused of sexual harassment in the past, but the Delaware lawsuit separately contends that his poor handling of the claims amounted to neglect and mishandling of a critical risk to the firm, something he should have addressed as an executive at the company.\nNevertheless, by issuing his ruling before deciding whether shareholders have standing, Vice Chancellor Laster appears to be sending a message about the importance of top management in the oversight process, experts said.\n“Here the court said management always plays a critical role in the oversight process,” Ms. Weinstein* said. “They are the people on the ground who really know what’s going on.” Failing in their oversight duties could prevent directors from fulfilling their own, she added. *Gail Weinstein, senior counsel at Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver \u0026amp; Jacobson LLP\nWSJ\nIt will be some time before we know if this case is successful or not, but the judge’s ruling is a change in the application of so-called ‘Caremark’ claims. These cases have previously been directed at companies’ boards, contending that boards of directors set up the compliance systems that are supposed to manage corporate risks. The Fairhurst ruling means that Caremark claims of oversight failures can now be brought against company executives more easily. This may lead to frivolous claims but should also ensure that executives take their governance and oversight responsibilities seriously.\nRead more in the WSJ.\nCyprus’ Presidential Elections Head to a Run-Off Sunday’s election in Cyprus returned no clear winner and heads to a runoff on February 12th. Former foreign minister Nikos Christodoulides, came first, with former diplomat Andreas Mavroyiannis a close second, despite polls having written Mavroyiannis off in the run-up to the vote. Read more in Reuters.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\n(No change) Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation but continue to creep up.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\n(No change) Wheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation but the downward trend continues.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 12: Cyprus, Presidential run-offFebruary 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and Senate\nPalate cleanser I’m glad to see this apprentice electrician hard at work. #lifelonglearning.\nFrom Cats With Jobs on Twitter\nVisualization I’m also experimenting with some new ways to illustrate the metrics. ⬆️ This one’s a little too hectic for me, but I like how this shows the movements ⬇️\nLet me know what you think (these are a bit clunky but I’m sure you get the idea).\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/hundreds-dead-after-turkey-and-syria-earthquake-plus-executive-liability-in-the-us/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eA sad morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe death toll in Turkey and Syria following Monday’s terrible earthquake is rising and the latest death toll at the time of writing was over 1,000 but this number has been rising steadily all morning. The full toll will be many times higher while thousands more are injured or without shelter and power. The recovery and aid operations will be complex and likely hampered by political and security considerations. \u003c/p\u003e","title":"Hundreds Dead after Turkey and Syria Earthquake, plus Executive Liability in the US."},{"content":"Good morning.\nWelcome to the upside-down edition of the Daily SITREP\nDon’t worry, it’s not as scary as the Upside Down. Image © Stra Things / Netflix\nI like numbers. You like numbers. We all like numbers. (If you don’t…) But the danger of writing a daily briefing that leads with the metrics is that it can feel like a market tracker (this isn’t) and you can get a little ‘number blind’. You also might get sidetracked on your way to the updates which are hopefully flagging what you really need to pay attention to (that would be bad).\nSo I’m flipping the format all week to see which version people prefer. The content is all the same, I’m just moving the metrics to the bottom and leading with the analysis. (Also, the ‘Random Stat’ will become a more general palate cleanser seeing as I’ve realized it takes as long to write that part as it does to write the rest of the newsletter….)\nLet me know what you think and I’ll lock in the preferred format for next week.\nLet’s go.\nCoverage and Analysis Happy Lunar New Year Sunday was Lunar New Year and the beginning of a three-week-long celebration in China. As mentioned in last week’s updates, this will be a bittersweet time for many as it will be the first time since COVID that some families have been reunited. However, for many – particularly the elderly in rural settings – it’s also their first exposure to the virus that’s now sweeping China. Beijing reported 12,600 COVID-related deaths in the week before the Lunar New Year and said that 1.1 billion people had been infected since restrictions were lifted. Even these enormous numbers might be downplaying the extent of the illness as Beijing uses a very narrow definition for recoding a death as COVID related.\nRightly or wrongly, Beijing seems to have factored in the effects of COVID and is now focused on the county’s economic reopening which will really start in mid-February as people return from the holidays. Expect iron and steel and crude prices to move higher as China’s manufacturing and construction sectors kick into gear. Exports will assumedly increase as manufacturing picks up but this will lag a few weeks behind.\nUkraine There were two noteworthy pieces of news concerning Ukraine over the last few days. First, Germany is still delaying approval of sending Leopard II tanks to Ukraine which, due to export regulations, means that other NATO allies who use the tanks are also prevented from sending the vehicles. Many thought that the change in defense ministers last week would give Chancellor Shultz an opportunity to approve the export so it’s not clear what might need to happen to send additional tanks to Kyiv. Too long a delay will prevent the Ukrainians from having the necessary training and setting up the maintenance and supply chains required in time for a spring offensive.\nImage (C) Bundeswehr-Fotos\nSee the LA Times for more\nSecond, the Biden administration signaled that it was more open to Kyiv attempting to retake Crimea. Previously, this had been seen as a no-go due to the chances that Moscow would see this as a red line, worthy of nuclear retaliation. However, statements last week indicated that Washington’s stance was changing.\n“After months of discussions with Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration is finally starting to concede that Kyiv may need the power to strike the Russian sanctuary, even if such a move increases the risk of escalation, according to several U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive debate. Crimea, between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, is home to tens of thousands of dug-in Russian troops and numerous Russian military bases.\nWhite House officials insist there is no change in position. Crimea, they say, belongs to Ukraine.\n“We have said throughout the war that Crimea is Ukraine, and Ukraine has the right to defend themselves and their sovereign territory in their internationally recognized borders,” said Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.”\nNYT\nCrimea is of much greater strategic importance to Russia than the Donbas region and other parts of Eastern Ukraine meaning that a fight for Crimea would give Russia the advantage of a defender’s mindset. The troops and materiel required by Ukraine would also be enormous so this would be a considerable expansion and extension of the war, extending the effects on global wheat prices and to a lesser extent the cost of energy. Finally, the chance of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon to defend Crimea is non-zero as this is wholly within the scope of their doctrine for defensive operations. So there’s also that to keep us up at night…\nTurkish Election Date Switch President Erdogan announced that Turkey’s dual presidential and parliamentary elections would now take place on May 14, not June as had been previously announced. This is a historically significant date and the earlier voting may give Erdogan some advantages but it’s not clear if that would be enough for him to overcome considerable unpopularity. There’s also some constitutional maneuvering in Parliament for the snap elections to progress and for Erdogan to stand as a candidate so this seems to be a higher-risk strategy for Erdogan. The effect of the date-change outside of Turkey is likely to be limited but it will demand a lot of attention internally which may make Ankara less attentive to regional issues.\nHere’s a good write-up and some excellent analysis from Al Monitor\nElection Watch 26 January: Tokelau, General Fono29 January: Liechtenstein, Constitutional referendumCampaigning has begin for Tunisia’s second round of the 2022 legislative elections. (Voting is scheduled for January 29)Turkey’s elections have been brought forward to May 14.\nOn to the numbers\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\n*(No change) *Brent Crude remains in the mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after some dips but prices seem to be trending upwards at the moment. What to Watch *(No change) *Market commentary and analysis vary wildly about what oil will do in 2023 and the broad analysis I shared earlier holds for many: ‘prices will peak around $95 with an average of around $90, a drop from previous 2023 estimates which reflects a gloomy outlook for the year’. See Reuters for more\nHowever, within that range, the opportunity for significant movements remain and China’s plans for a great economic boom are leading some to forecast oil moving up as high as $110 by Q3. The exact number is less important here than the reinforcement of the idea that China’s reopening will kick in soon and will lead to significant increases in demand for oil as well as other commodities by mid-year.\nIran remains worth watching as their motivation and ability to inflame tension in the Gulf remain. Talk of the rise of the petroyuan in 2023 is overblown. See this update for more.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\n*(No change) *Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation and continue to creep up. What to watch *(No change) *The Chinese construction and manufacturing boom that many expected in 2023 is off to a very unsteady start as COVID spreads rapidly after December’s relaxations. Sectors that had struggled under the strict COVID restrictions are suffering just as much in the current *laissez-faire *environment. This is temporarily delaying the expected economic boom but many analysts expect things to take off in late Q1 meaning that demand for oil, shipping and commodities will all rise significantly thereafter. See Bloomberg for more\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\n*(No change) *Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index has decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation and spikes around the New Year although there are signs it might be ticking up again. What to Watch *(No change) *Messaging from the US Fed and ECB remain consistent and the end-of-year turbulence has faded, meaning that although the news in many sectors isn’t welcome, the general market conditions seem to have been broadly accepted and priced in. Layoffs continue in tech, banking and retail while some large brick-and-mortar stores, like Bed Bath and Beyond, seem to be slipping further into difficulty. So although decision-makers have greater clarity as to what lies ahead, economic conditions are grim for many and look to remain so for short- to mid-term.\nHowever, negotiations around raising the US debt limit will be contentious and cause significant turbulence in the run up to hitting the ceiling, likely in late Q2, early Q3.See last Tuesday’s piece on debt limits for more.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Despite agreements brokered by Turkey, Russia could still impose a complete blockade on Ukrainian grain exports to exert pressure on Kyiv and her allies. Meanwhile, even strict controls and inspections for outbound shipments mean that exports remain slowed. Moscow could also conduct military operations to disrupt spring planting meaning that prices could rise again next spring and summer. Read more in AGWeek\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\n*(No change) *Shipping (FBX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after the spike we saw in December. What to watch (No change) China’s reopening and the effects of recessions on demand in the US and elsewhere remain the biggest issues to track but there are no definitive signs to watch at the moment. Chinese New Year will depress manufacturing and shipping volumes but expect these to rise significantly in late February once the celebrations are over.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nPalate cleansers A startling road safety ad via Mohandas Menon on Twitter (prepare to jump – I did) Apropos of nothing…\nThat’s a wrap. Please let me know what you think about the layout, style and format of the SITREPS – your feedback really helps make this a better product!\nSee you tomorrow\nAnd here’s the quick users guide if you need it.\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/lunar-new-year-tanks-to-ukraine-or-not-and-an-election-switcheroo-in-turkey/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWelcome to the upside-down edition of the Daily SITREP\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDon’t worry, it’s not as scary as the Upside Down. Image © Stra Things / Netflix\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI like numbers. You like numbers. We all like numbers. (\u003ca href=\"https://media.giphy.com/media/l4q82PagXjFYB01H2/giphy.gif\"\u003eIf you don’t\u003c/a\u003e…) \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut the danger of writing a daily briefing that leads with the metrics is that it can feel like a market tracker (this isn’t) and you can get a little ‘number blind’. You also might get sidetracked on your way to the updates which are hopefully flagging what you really need to pay attention to (that would be bad).\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Lunar New Year, Tanks to Ukraine (or not), and An Election Switcheroo in Turkey."},{"content":"Good morning.\nSurprisingly, markets quickly shrugged off Moscow’s Friday announcement that Russia would cut oil production by half a million barrels per day (bpd), suggesting that Russia’s influence on oil markets is much diminished.\nMeanwhile, two stories on regulation are good reminders that rules should be followed but also that the communication of these rules can be complicated and subtleties can be lost. Unfortunately, ‘we were confused by your messaging’ isn’t an excuse for non-compliance, so it falls to leaders to ensure that staff understand, and meet, obligations.\nFinally, former foreign minister Nikos Christodoulides won the presidential election in Cyprus.\n❗️SITREP PRO is coming ❗️\nDon’t miss tomorrow’s SITREP to learn how you can get customized daily risk reports.\n🛢Russian Oil Cuts Shrugged Off Russia announced plans to cut oil production by 500,00 bpd on Friday, in retaliation to western price caps and sanctions. Crude prices jumped on the news but dropped back quickly over the weekend as concerns about reduced demand and existing surpluses offset the Russian cuts. “In the short term, I suspect prices are going to remain fairly range-bound due to the first-quarter surplus,” Patterson said. “As we approach mid-year, we expect the market to tighten, which should push prices toward $100.\nWarren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV in Bloomberg\nOn Friday, we noted that the Western sanctions hadn’t hurt the Russian economy as Europe and the US had hoped, alleviating some of the pressure on Moscow to end the conflict in Ukraine. However, the collective shrug over Russia’s production cut also indicates that Moscow hasn’t much leverage in the other direction with respect to influencing oil prices.\n💬 Regulators Crack Down 1: SEC \u0026amp; WhatsApp The SEC is pursuing the personal phone records of employees at several Wall Street firms, believing that staff used ‘unapproved channels’ for business communications. The SEC is asking banks and money managers for details of records retention, believing that unofficial, and unmonitored platforms such as Whatsapp are being used for business purposes. The scope of this investigation seems to be growing, causing significant pushback from the financial services industry in the US.\n“It shows that the SEC’s probe goes beyond the largest broker-dealers and that it will likely extend to all corners of the financial services sector. With more and more financial sector workers still not in the office five days a week, and with the increased use of non-official means of communication, the potential scope for liability can be tremendous.”\nHoward Fischer, a partner at law firm Moses Singer in Bloomberg.\nThis could be simply a matter of convenience, or an attempt to avoid using communication channels that are saved for regulatory purposes. However, no matter the outcome in this case, this is an important reminder to anyone working in a regulated industry, or on matters that may come under legal scrutiny, that record retention is serious business and no matter how onerous the rules appear, there can be consequences if these aren’t followed. Moreover, trying to circumvent the rules and using private text or Whatsapp means that your personal communications could come under scrutiny, no matter how much you might think these are ‘privileged’ communications.\n💪 Regulators Crack Down 2: Mixed Messages in the UK The FT warns that the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority “has vowed to take a more aggressive approach on enforcement under new chief executive Nikhil Rathi after a string of scandals, and has repeatedly warned banks operating in the UK that their oversight and reporting systems are not yet up to scratch.” Read more in the FT\nHowever, this more aggressive approach to compliance by the FCA may lead to some mixed messages from Whitehall as the UK Treasury is keen to speed up a new, looser, set of rules for insurers, hoping to free up an additional £100 billion for additional investment. These revised Solvency II rules would allow insurers to hold lower reserves against the insured amounts, meaning that their excess cash could be put to work in the markets. However, firms always seem to push the boundaries of regulation at the best of times (see Regulators Crack Down 1, above) so there’s a danger that this loosening could go too far and leave the UK insurers unable to meet their obligations in the case of a significant, country-wide event. (Recall that one of the biggest casualties in the 2008 financial crisis was insurer AIG, which was dragged down by its financial products arm so this scenario is not without precedent.) Read our longer piece on Solvency II here.\nThere’s also the difficulty of trying to tighten enforcement and regulation with one hand, while trying to ease regulation with the other. Although the FCAs focus and Solvency II are in practice very different things, there seems to be a real potential for mixed messaging.\n🇨🇾 Christodoulides wins Cypriot Presidential Race Former foreign minister Nikos Christodoulides won the presidential election in Cyprus on Sunday after his opponent conceded. Christodoulides is the nation’s eighth and youngest president who said his top priorities included resolving the Cyprus problem and energy. Read more in The Cyprus Mail.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is low for this 90-day interval. The index increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\n(No change) Wheat remains very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and Senate\nPalate Cleanser The USA was apparently engaged in a full-scale game of Space Invaders this weekend.\nThe NYT\nBloomberg\nMeanwhile, at a press conference, the intel community dismissed the alien theory but many remain suspicious…\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/oil-cuts-meh-whatsapp-and-ufos/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSurprisingly, markets quickly shrugged off Moscow’s Friday announcement that Russia would cut oil production by half a million barrels per day (bpd), suggesting that Russia’s influence on oil markets is much diminished.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, two stories on regulation are good reminders that rules should be followed but also that the communication of these rules can be complicated and subtleties can be lost. Unfortunately, ‘we were confused by your messaging’ isn’t an excuse for non-compliance, so it falls to leaders to ensure that staff understand, and meet, obligations.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Oil Cuts (Meh…), WhatsApp and UFOs"},{"content":"Good morning.\nThe readout after Wednesday’s meeting between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy was positive, giving some hope for smoother-than-anticipated negotiations around the debt ceiling. The Fed continued to raise rates but less quickly, which markets took as a sign that the worst was over. However, Mardi Gras is still three weeks away – and landing the US economy even farther off – so shouts of ‘laissez les bons temps rouler’ from Wall Street are premature. Finally, Kosovo is one of many seemingly small disputes that can cause oversized headaches and is therefore worth keeping an eye on.\nCan you help spread the word?\nIf you enjoy these SITREPS, please share these with someone you think would benefit from them too. There’s a link at the bottom to make that nice and easy. Thanks in advance for supporting the Daily SITREPS.\nThe US Deficit Fight: Round 1 Update Yesterday’s meeting between President Biden and Speaker McCarthy ended with a positive briefing to reporters from McCarthy.\n“I don’t want to put any words in his mouth. We had an hour of conversation about this that I thought was a very good discussion, and we walked out saying we would continue the discussion,” McCarthy told reporters at the White House. “And I think there is an opportunity here to come to an agreement on both sides.”\n“There is nothing in there with me walking away that does not believe that at the end of the day we can come to an agreement,” McCarthy said.\nThe Hill\nThere’s still a long way to go before this issue is settled but McCarthy’s positive outlook at this early stage, instead of the intransigence that many feared, sets a positive tone and will ease fears of America stumbling into default. Deal or No-Deal in Kosovo A peace deal has been proposed to end increasing tension between ethnic Serbs in the north and the government in Pristina has the backing of the US and EU, offering a resolution to the ongoing tension. However, Kosovo’s senior court believes that the deal, which would create a semi-autonomous Serbian municipal area, contravenes Kosovo’s constitution. That could be solved via a constitutional amendment, but the bigger fear, particularly held by Prime Minister Kurti, is that this creates a de facto partition of the country and that any Serbian municipality would eventually be absorbed into the Serbian state. Meanwhile, Serbia still doesn’t recognize Kosovo’s independence.\nIn itself, Kosovo may seem like something of only local relevance, but it’s another headache on Europe’s borders for Brussels to deal with and a reminder that even after more than 30 years after the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia, there are still issues to resolve. See Reuters for more.\nOn to the numbers\nKey Metrics (Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation but continue to creep up.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation and a sharp drop at the beginning of the week.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 5: Cyprus, PresidentFebruary 5: Monaco, ParliamentFebruary 5: Ecuador, ReferendumFebruary 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and SenateTurkey’s elections have been brought forward to May 14.\nPalate cleanser A new wave of smugglers is swarming the US southern border. Except, unlike the more serious issues CBP is dealing with, this time it’s Americans trying to buy cheaper eggs. See Reuters for more.\n“All units, be on the lookout…” Photo The Yards At Fieldside Village\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/positive-vibes-from-dc-negative-vibes-in-pristina-and-us-egg-smugglers/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe readout after Wednesday’s meeting between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy was positive, giving some hope for smoother-than-anticipated negotiations around the debt ceiling. The Fed continued to raise rates but less quickly, which markets took as a sign that the worst was over. However, Mardi Gras is still three weeks away – and landing the US economy even farther off – so shouts of ‘laissez les bons temps rouler’ from Wall Street are premature. Finally, Kosovo is one of many seemingly small disputes that can cause oversized headaches and is therefore worth keeping an eye on.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Positive Vibes from DC, Negative Vibes in Pristina and US Egg Smugglers."},{"content":"Good morning.\n🌐 A rapid-fire roundup of some of the big geopolitical issues today: Tunisia, the Turkey / Syria earthquake, Russian sanctions, the Nigerian Election, and Israel-Palestine.\nThe Cyprus election run-off is this weekend and America will be watching a football game while eating a record number of nachos and wings.\nSee you on Monday!\n🇹🇳 Tunisia There have been no steps to address the lack of a decisive outcome in the election runoff that took place two weeks ago despite protests and complaints that the government of President Saied is illegitimate. Instead, the President has sanctioned a crackdown on the opposition, increasing the number arrested or charged with frivolous offenses and is describing the opposition on the terms of a “cancer” on the country.\nTunisian president Kais Saied has caused uproar after he described opposition figures as a “cancer” that can only be “cured with chemicals” in a public address this week.\n“The state is ravaged by corruption – but the Tunisian people will cleanse its institutions of the cancer that has spread through the country,” President Saied quoted in The New Arab\n🇷🇺 Sanctions on Russia The Western sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine have not had such a big effect on oil and gas revenues as hoped.\nFor all of 2022, Russia managed to increase its oil output 2 percent and boost oil export earnings 20 percent, to $218 billion, according to estimates from the Russian government and the International Energy Agency, a group representing the world’s main energy consumers. Russia’s earnings were helped by an overall rise in oil prices after the start of the war and by growing demand after pandemic lockdowns… Russia also raked in $138 billion from natural gas, a nearly 80 percent rise over 2021 as record prices offset cuts in flows to Europe. NYT Coverage\nThis leaves Russia in a stronger financial position than many had expected, or hoped, making it much easier for Moscow to afford the war in Ukraine well into the year.\n🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Aftermath of the Earthquake in Turkey \u0026amp; Syria The death toll from Monday’s earthquake and aftershocks has now surpassed 20,000 in Syria and Turkey with tens of thousands more wounded. Enormous rescue efforts are underway and aid is pouring into the Turkish areas affected but only a trickle has been able to reach the rebel-held part of Syria. Some estimates put the amount of aid in Sirya reaching government-controlled areas as high as 99% of the total despite the area affected being equally split between the government and rebel groups. Read more in Al Monitor.\nPolitically, President Erdogan is coming under increased criticism for the initial response to the disaster as well as previous decisions made to waive some construction laws, which may have contributed to the weak state of some buildings. Read more in The New Arab.\nPresident Erdogan at one of the areas hit by the earthquake, Feb. 8, 2023. Photo: ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images\nIn Syria, President al-Assad is using the tragedy as another opportunity to normalize relations with other states further. Read more in The New Arab. 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel-Palestine Tension remains very high in the West Bank and Gaza as violence continues between Palestinians, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) and Israeli settlers. Clashes are almost a daily occurrence and the number of Palestinians injured or killed is rising steadily. There have been no attacks in Isreal since the attacks of January 27 but there are fears that more serious attacks could be planned.\nThere are reports that the Palestinian Authority has no control or influence over any part of the protests and demonstrations going on, increasing the chances of a spill-over into outright conflict. CIA Director Bill Burns, who was a US diplomat in the region for many years, noted that the current conditions are very similar to those which preceded the second intifada. Read more in Al Monitor.\nMeanwhile, arguments and protests continue in Israel over proposed changes to give the Knesset effective veto power over the country’s supreme court. Read more in The Times of Israel.\n🇳🇬 Nigerian Elections There’s a good summary of the big issues that will affect the upcoming elections in Nigeria by Professor Jideofor Adibe in The Conversation. The Chair of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has said that preparations for the election are in good shape. Read more in All Africa.\nOn to the numbers\n(Not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? The user’s guide is here. Want to go deeper? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel are very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nPalate cleansers Wholesome Memes on Twitter\nApruary is the cruelest month…\nExcel Humor on Twitter\n🥺 I crave validation…\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/rapid-fire-friday-geopolitics-issue/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e🌐 A rapid-fire roundup of some of the big geopolitical issues today: Tunisia, the Turkey / Syria earthquake, Russian sanctions, the Nigerian Election, and Israel-Palestine.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Cyprus election run-off is this weekend and America will be watching a football game while eating a record number of nachos and wings.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSee you on Monday!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"-tunisia\"\u003e🇹🇳 Tunisia\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere have been no steps to address the lack of a decisive outcome in the election runoff that took place two weeks ago despite protests and complaints that the government of President Saied is illegitimate. Instead, the President has sanctioned a crackdown on the opposition, increasing the number arrested or charged with frivolous offenses and is describing the opposition on the terms of a “cancer” on the country.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Rapid-Fire Friday: Geopolitics Issue"},{"content":"GM and welcome to So What: a fresh perspective on an emerging risk that will add to your grey hairs.\nLet’s dive in.\n839 words – 3 mins, 31 seconds read time\nTL;DR Container prices remain at record highsThis affects global shipping of all goods with an impact on supply chains and pricesThis looks set to continue through 2022 and maybe into 2023 so companies should plan accordingly.This also reinforces the dangers of globalization and just-in-time inventory which need to be reduced.\nNutritional Information\nToday’s post contains 100% of the RDA of your supply chain intake\nShipping Is Expensive The cost to move a shipping container around the world shot up as supply chains re-engaged in 2020 after a year of suppressed demand in 2019. Prior to COVID, the cost to move a 40′ container was around $1,700, consistent with the longstanding $1,500-2,000 range suppliers had become used to. Prices have dropped to around $7,500 today which eases pressure but is still 3-3.5x higher than pre-COVID prices.\nStatistica\nWhy So Expensive? Reduced output from China from early 2019 to early 2020 reduced the amount of goods shipped worldwide which suppressed container prices to around $1,300. However, as China emerged from lockdowns, demand in the US and elsewhere rose and output grew but, at the same time, supply chain capacity was significantly reduced. Several factors contributed to this massive increase but two big ones were:\nDuring COVID, new containers weren’t being built to replace old containers so there were fewer containers available in total.Reduced throughput at ports around the world stranded both empty and full containers meaning fewer containers available to ship new goods.\nSo the increase in demand coincided with a significant decrease in the availability of containers to move the goods. So the supply of goods should have met the demand side but the issue was a lack of container supply. This shortfall was dramatic that container prices shot up to over $10,000 by mid-2021. Flexport\nFlexport Logistics Pressure Matrix Through June 2022 (link)\nThat’s an enormous increase in the cost of ocean shipping, so much so that it imbalances the economic calculations that made globalization work: offshoring manufacturing to a country with lower wages provides a big advantage if the same good can be sold to a population with a higher income. But there’s a catch. The other part of the equation is that this arbitrage only works if the cost of transport is also low. Low wages plus high shipping costs negates the benefit of offshoring driving costs up. Moreover, as supply chains become clogged, goods become stranded which can again increase costs or even bring things to a complete standstill. And remember that this is not just affecting the supply of iPhones: the US ran out of PPE and some pharmaceuticals during the early stages of coronavirus because these were mainly supplied by China.\nSo What? In short:\nShipping goods anywhere is very expensive.Supply and demand may be in balance but goods are stranded.\nOffshoring, particularly with just-in-time inventory, no longer makes as much economic sense and poses a significant supply chain risk. (Note this was always there but it had been ignored while everything was working.) These are all major topics with significant, yet different, ramifications for everyone so there’s no simple ‘therefore, do this’ prescription. However, there are some general things to consider.\nAssume shipping prices will remain high for 2022 Pressure on all elements of the global supply chain remains high and labor disputes and zoning issues on America’s West Coast continue to slow the throughput of goods, keeping containers stranded. Pressure on all forms of transport rose in early 2022 by significant increases in oil prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has also stranded vessels behind the Russian blockade of the Black Sea. (Most notably, this has driven up wheat prices at a time when there are significant food shortages around the world. Which I wrote about here.)\nSo there’s no end in sight and businesses should assume that shipping prices will remain high through 2022 and maybe in 2023 although high inventory levels in places like the US will help ease supply chain pressure so this is not a chronic, long-term challenge.\nExamine Your Supply Chain Therefore:\nExamine your supply chain and that of your suppliers, to determine where you’re susceptible to shocks.Monitor events that could trigger interruptions to help with advanced warning of interruption.Hedge your supply chain by balancing low-cost yet fragile suppliers with higher-cost, more costly options.Move away from just-in-time inventory and adjust operations accordingly.\nNone of these issues are insignificant or easy to manage but the shocks we’ve seen to global supply chains suggest that the globalization model needs adjustment and the sooner businesses adapt, the better.\nI’d love to know what you thought. Use the poll below and leave a comment.\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/shipping-containers-are-very-expensive-so-what/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGM and welcome to So What: a fresh perspective on an emerging risk that will add to your grey hairs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLet’s dive in.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e839 words – 3 mins, 31 seconds read time\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"tldr\"\u003eTL;DR\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eContainer prices remain at record highsThis affects global shipping of all goods with an impact on supply chains and pricesThis looks set to continue through 2022 and maybe into 2023 so companies should plan accordingly.This also reinforces the dangers of globalization and just-in-time inventory which need to be reduced.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Shipping Containers Are Very Expensive: So What?"},{"content":"Good morning.\nFirst, a clarification\n**In yesterday’s piece on sovereign debt, I said that Secretary Janet Yellen had announced that the US would hit the debt ceiling in early June and she was implementing special measures to help manage that process.\nIn fact, Secretary Yellen said that the US will probably hit the ceiling around January 19 (A.K.A tomorrow!) but that the “extraordinary measures [will] prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations”. These measures can be sustained until early June, after which it is unclear exactly when the US will run out of cash, although many economists believe that this will happen by August. Apologies for the confusion.\nThe World Economic Forum is underway in a snow-less Davos where the tone is said to be “one of cautious optimism”. I’ll review what happens over the week and share anything that seems particularly significant.\nOn Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany’s rapid switch away from Russian gas to LNG had mitigated a great deal of the potential economic fallout and will probably help the country avoid a recession.\nSeveral analysts have noted that the winter in Europe has been mild so far (see: snow, lack of), which has given European leaders some breathing room and leeway as they transition away from Russian gas. What is most remarkable is the speed with which Germany made this change which shows that energy projects don’t have to be quite as slow and sclerotic as many would like you to think. (Now, let’s do renewables.)\nSee Bloomberg for the latest from Davos\nOn with the numbers.\n(Not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? Read the white paper here and look out for a detailed user’s guide coming in the early New Year.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude (No change) Brent Crude has crept up slightly into the mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Market commentary and analysis vary wildly about what oil will do in 2023 and the broad analysis I shared earlier holds for many: ‘prices will peak around $95 with an average of around $90, a drop from previous 2023 estimates which reflects a gloomy outlook for the year’. See Reuters for more\nHowever, within that range, the opportunity for significant movements remain and China’s plans for a great economic boom are leading some to forecast oil moving up as high as $110 by Q3. The exact number is less important here than the reinforcement of the idea that China’s reopening will kick in soon and will lead to significant increases in demand for oil as well as other commodities by mid-year.\nIran remains worth watching as their motivation and ability to inflame tension in the Gulf remain. Talk of the rise of the petroyuan in 2023 is overblown. See Friday’s update for more.\nIron and Steel Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nWhat to watch *(No change) *The Chinese construction and manufacturing boom that many expected in 2023 is off to a very unsteady start as COVID spreads rapidly after December’s relaxations. Sectors that had struggled under the strict COVID restrictions are suffering just as much in the current *laissez-faire *environment. This is temporarily delaying the expected economic boom but many analysts expect things to take off in late Q1 meaning that demand for oil, shipping and commodities will all rise significantly thereafter.\nSee Bloomberg for more\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) *(No change) *Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index has decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation and spikes around the New Year.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Messaging from the US Fed and ECB remain consistent and the end-of-year turbulence has faded, meaning that although the news in many sectors isn’t welcome, the general market conditions seem to have been broadly accepted and priced in. Layoffs continue in tech, banking and retail while some large brick-and-mortar stores, like Bed Bath and Beyond, seem to be slipping further into difficulty. So although decision-makers have greater clarity as to what lies ahead, economic conditions are grim for many and look to remain so for short- to mid-term.\nHowever, negotiations around raising the US debt limit re likely to be contentious and cause significant turbulence in late Q2, early Q3. See Tuesday’s piece on debt limits for more.\nWheat *(No change) *Wheat remains low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Despite agreements brokered by Turkey, Russia could still impose a complete blockade on Ukrainian grain exports to exert pressure on Kyiv and her allies. Meanwhile, even strict controls and inspections for outbound shipments mean that exports remain slowed. Moscow could also conduct military operations to disrupt spring planting meaning that prices could rise again next spring and summer.\nRead more in AGWeek\nOcean Freight (FBX) *(No change) *Shipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased sharply over the last 21 days after the spike we saw in December.\nWhat to watch *(No change) *China’s reopening and the effects of recessions on demand in the US and elsewhere remain the biggest issues to track but there are no definitive signs to watch at the moment.\n“Lunar New Year starts on January 22, 2023, and with it, manufacturing and shipping from China and the Far East will come to a halt. Disruptions can last for up to a month. Learn more about Lunar New Year and how to avoid shipping delays here. “\nFrom Freightos\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nOther coverage and Analysis EY Under Investigation by the UK’s FRC Britain’s accounting watchdog, the Financial Reporting Council (FRC), announced an investigation into EY’s audit of Stirling Water Seafield Finance, part of the French firm Veolia. However, the investigation isn’t into the audit itself. Instead, it concerns EY breaching the UK’s rules on engagement periods as it seems that the auditor had continued to audit Stirling Water Seafield Finance beyond the 10-year maximum. For a firm tasked with helping companies comply with complex regulations, this is embarrassing for EY but probably doesn’t signify anything more than an oversight, rather than some nefarious action. However, the company is set to spin off its consulting business from the audit and accounting practice this year, so hiccups like this may have an effect on whatever deal is eventually struck.\nOf more general relevance is the fact that even a firm that lives and breathes regulations and compliance, can make mistakes when myriad layers of regulation apply. Even if your business is less complex, your governance department is likely a lot smaller, so make sure you are meeting your obligations.\nSee Reuters for more\nRandom Stat ⚡️1,000 pulses per second, an 8,200 feet experiment site, 1 giant laser\nScientists in Switzerland have successfully tested a laser that can divert lightning away from vulnerable areas. Thousands die each year from lightning strikes, and places like airports and fuel storage are all susceptible to lightning damage, so the system could improve safety significantly where traditional lightning rods are ineffective.\nDefinitely not the lair of an evil supervillain…. Image: llr-fet.eu\nThe laser pulses 1,000 times a second forming a plasma ‘corridor’ in the air. The plasma corridor is directed over the top of a 400’ tower creating a pathway that encourages the lightning to follow the laser away from sensitive areas and toward the tower, which acts as a lightning rod. Issues remain concerning the safety of the system, particularly for any aircraft flying overhead, but the system is a significant advance over the traditional lighting rod, discovered by Benjamin Franklin in 1752. Plus, it looks amazing!\nRead more at the Laser Lighting Rod site (which probably needs a ‘Definitely Not A James Bond Super Villian Project’ disclaimer on it somewhere) Publish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/some-news-from-davos-while-the-metrics-remain-relatively-quiet-plus-giant-space-lasers/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFirst, a clarification\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e**In yesterday’s piece on sovereign debt, I said that Secretary Janet Yellen had announced that the US would hit the debt ceiling in early June and she was implementing special measures to help manage that process.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn fact, Secretary Yellen said that the US will probably hit the ceiling around January 19 (A.K.A tomorrow!) but that the “extraordinary measures [will] prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations”. These measures can be sustained until early June, after which it is unclear exactly when the US will run out of cash, although many economists believe that this will happen by August. \u003c/p\u003e","title":"Some news from Davos while the metrics remain relatively quiet. Plus giant space lasers."},{"content":"Good morning.\nIt’s a bite-sized issue as there’s a lot to share today. Tanks are heading to Ukraine, the ECB has issued new climate metrics and the NYSE had some wild swings on Tuesday. (Oh, and Chad’s fully refreshed after his spa day so the metrics are back. )\nFeedback so far is that quite a few folks seem to prefer having the commentary first but please use the poll to let me know what you think.\nCoverage and Analysis Tanks to Ukraine President Zelenskiy received a welcome birthday gift from Washington as the US agreed to send M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine as part of an agreement with Germany which will also approve the export of Leopard 2 tanks. Guten Morgen\nAlthough the number of vehicles sent by Berlin may be relatively small, this approval allows the other NATO allies who use the Leopard 2 to send their vehicles to Ukraine. It’s unclear exactly how many vehicles will eventually be sent and there will be a delay while crews are trained and the logistics and maintenance requirements are integrated with the Ukrainian forces.\nThe Russian Ambassador in Washington declared that “It is obvious that Washington is purposefully trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us,” and this move by Washington does pull the US much farther away from the initial stance of only providing non-lethal aid. This might be tolerated by Moscow while the fighting remains in the eastern provinces of Ukraine but any move towards Crimea, particularly if the US and NATO allies were seen as being deeply involved, would be a significant flash point. See Reuters for more.\nMeanwhile… President Zelenskiy dismissed several senior Ukrainian officials this week as part of an anti-corruption drive. “Any internal problems that interfere with the state are being cleaned up and will be cleaned up. This is only fair, it is necessary for our protection and it helps our rapprochement with the European institutions,” Ukrainian President Zelenskiy\nSee Reuters for more\nThe ECB Releases Climate-Related Metrics The ECB just released “an initial set of statistical indicators covering sustainable finance, carbon emissions and physical risks” to help track climate-related risks in financial markets. This is just one of a number of initiatives underway to codify methodologies around assessing the impact of businesses on the climate and the impacts of climate on business.\nThe ECB methodology is a measurement and reporting tool, not a rule or regulation so there’s no compliance element at the moment from what I can tell. However, it’s worth thinking about how your organization might use these indicators or some of the parallel work going on in the US and elsewhere to track climate-related metrics. As noted yesterday, the requirement to meet climate-related reporting requirements is growing so this needs to be incorporated into governance and reporting frameworks ASAP. There’s a good summary in ESG Today and the full ECB guidelines are here.\n(Hat Tip to Greg H for sharing the story)\nA Mini ‘Flash Crash’ on the NYSE Swings of several major US stocks were so wild on Tuesday morning that trading was halted for dozens of firms within 30 seconds of the market opening. Walmart, Wells Fargo and AT\u0026amp;T were some of the most affected with AT\u0026amp;T swinging from +20% to -20% in a few seconds while Walmart seemed to lose $ 46 billion.\nChart of yesterday’s movement courtesy of Bloomberg\nThe NYSE blamed a technical issue for the problem and rules are in place to rectify “clearly erroneous” trades so any losses will be resolved but even though an investigation is underway, the exact cause may remain unclear as it has with previous crashes. This is another reminder of how volatile technical systems can be, systems that are only going to become more complex and opaque as AI becomes more prevalent.See Bloomberg for more.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\n*(No change) *Brent Crude is mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Market commentary and analysis vary wildly about what oil will do in 2023 and the broad analysis I shared earlier holds for many: ‘prices will peak around $95 with an average of around $90, a drop from previous 2023 estimates which reflects a gloomy outlook for the year’. See Reuters for more\nHowever, within that range, the opportunity for significant movements remains and China’s plans for a great economic boom are leading some to forecast oil moving up as high as $110 by Q3. The exact number is less important here than the reinforcement of the idea that China’s reopening will kick in soon and will lead to significant increases in demand for oil as well as other commodities by mid-year.\nIran remains worth watching as their motivation and ability to inflame tension in the Gulf remain. Talk of the rise of the petroyuan in 2023 is overblown. See this update for more. Iron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\n*(No change) *Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation and continue to creep up. (Note that the Iron and Steel index is on the Taiwanese exchange, which is closed for lunar New Year so these values are from January 17.)\nWhat to watch *(No change) *The Chinese construction and manufacturing boom that many expected in 2023 is off to a very unsteady start as COVID spreads rapidly after December’s relaxations. Sectors that had struggled under the strict COVID restrictions are suffering just as much in the current *laissez-faire *environment. This is temporarily delaying the expected economic boom but many analysts expect things to take off in late Q1 meaning that demand for oil, shipping and commodities will all rise significantly thereafter.\nSee Bloomberg for more\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nYesterday’s hiccup notwithstanding, Market Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Messaging from the US Fed and ECB remain consistent and the end-of-year turbulence has faded, meaning that although the news in many sectors isn’t welcome, the general market conditions seem to have been broadly accepted and priced in. Layoffs continue in tech, banking and retail while some large brick-and-mortar stores, like Bed Bath and Beyond, seem to be slipping further into difficulty. So although decision-makers have greater clarity as to what lies ahead, economic conditions are grim for many and look to remain so for short- to mid-term.\nHowever, negotiations around raising the US debt limit will be contentious and cause significant turbulence in the run up to hitting the ceiling, likely in late Q2, early Q3.See last Tuesday’s piece on debt limits for more.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\n*(No change) *Wheat is high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nWhat to Watch *(No change) *Despite agreements brokered by Turkey, Russia could still impose a complete blockade on Ukrainian grain exports to exert pressure on Kyiv and her allies. Meanwhile, even strict controls and inspections for outbound shipments mean that exports remain slowed. Moscow could also conduct military operations to disrupt spring planting meaning that prices could rise again next spring and summer. Read more in AGWeek\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days.\nWhat to watch *(No change) *China’s reopening and the effects of recessions on demand in the US and elsewhere remain the biggest issues to track but there are no definitive signs to watch at the moment. Chinese New Year will depress manufacturing and shipping volumes but expect these to rise significantly in late February once the celebrations are over.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch 26 January: Tokelau, General Fono29 January: Liechtenstein, Constitutional referendumCampaigning has begun for Tunisia’s second round of the 2022 legislative elections. (Voting is scheduled for January 29)Turkey’s elections have been brought forward to May 14.\nPalate cleansers The 43rd International Hot Air Balloon Festival took place in Chateau-d’Oex, Switzerland, this week.\nPhoto: REUTERS/Denis Balibouse\nJust when you thought the Global War On Terror was over… Living in a treehouse in the US state of Georgia is apparently an act of terrorism.\nSteven Donziger via Twitter\nAnd, even though there aren’t random stats these days, I’d like to invoke editor’s privilege to share two: 2,952KM, 29 days.\nMy brother just cycled from one end of New Zealand to the other to raise money for charity. Whakamihi! I’m proud of you, bro.\n(No more personal news until he does something like this again, promise.)\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/tanks-to-ukraine-a-mini-flash-crash-maybe-and-new-ecb-climate-metrics-plus-treehousesterrorism/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s a bite-sized issue as there’s a lot to share today. Tanks are heading to Ukraine, the ECB has issued new climate metrics and the NYSE had some wild swings on Tuesday. (Oh, and Chad’s fully refreshed after his spa day so the metrics are back. )\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFeedback so far is that quite a few folks seem to prefer having the commentary first but please use the poll to let me know what you think.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Tanks to Ukraine, a Mini-Flash Crash (maybe), and New ECB Climate Metrics. Plus, treehouses=terrorism?"},{"content":"GM and welcome to So What: your daily snippet of risky goodness that adds one extra headache to your to-do list. (But you’ll read it right away tomorrow anyway.)\nLet’s dive in.\n1685 words – 6 mins, 30 seconds read time\nTL;DR The UFLPA addresses US concerns about the use of the Uyghur as forced labor in China.Similar EU legislation is likely in the near future.UFLPA places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.Both importers and those who have Chinese goods in their supply chains should audit their supply chains and prepare for and adapt to any disruption.Over the mid-to-long term, companies should reduce their dependence upon goods and materials of Chinese origin and look for other parts of their supply chain that may be linked to forced labor.It places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.\nThe Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act What it is The US passed the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) in late 2021, which came into effect on June 21, 2022. Exceptional bipartisan support of the Act shows a growing concern in the US over the treatment of the Muslim minorities in China (primarily the Uyghurs but also ethnic Kazakhs and Kyrgyz). These abuses are concentrated in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XAUR)\nAbuses “include widespread, state-sponsored forced labor and intrusive surveillance, forced population control measures and separation of children from families, mass detention, and other human rights abuses amidst ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity.” (US Department of State)\nNotable, Europe is not far behind, and parliamentarians adopted a resolution in early June “calling for a ban on the import of products made by forced labor.” (Le Monde)\nWhat it means The UFLPA targets commercial activities, stating that “goods, wares, articles, and merchandise mined, produced, or manufactured wholly or in part” in the XAUR are prohibited from import into the US. (US CBP)\nEnforcement of the Act falls to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), who must determine “that the importer of record has complied with specified conditions and, by clear and convincing evidence, that the goods, wares, articles, or merchandise were not produced using forced labor.” (US CBP)\nThe US Burau of Labor identifies 18 items produced in China using forced labor, including finished goods such as artificial flowers, electronics, and Christmas decorations, as well as raw materials like cotton and the polysilicon used for solar panels.\nAlthough the enforcement mechanism will differ, EU legislation will likely follow a similar format.\nTwo critical elements Two elements of the UFLPA jump out as particularly noteworthy.\nThe Act applies to finished goods, components, and raw materials\n*“goods, wares, articles, and merchandise mined, produced, or manufactured wholly or in part.” *\nCBP\nThis means that suppliers must go deep into the supply chain to determine the origin of the components of assembled goods and potentially the source of all materials in a blended or mixed batch of a product.\nImporters have a significant burden of proof to meet\n*“****that the importer of record ****has complied with specified conditions and, by clear and convincing evidence.” *\nCBP\nThis evidence can include “reports on factory site visits,” “information on workers at each entity…such as wage payment and production output per worker,” and “credible audits to identify forced labor indicators.” The Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force (FLETF) guidelines operationalize a strategy to assist with compliance.\nSo What? If you’re the importer Immediate Action: Assess your supply chain to determine how to comply with the UFLPA with minimum disruption\nYou’ve probably thought about the UFLPA already, but the scale and scope of this might still be causing concern. The potential for you to fall foul of the Act is directly proportional to 1) the range of goods and materials you import and 2) the complexity of the item(s) in question. But, you can prioritize items for action rather than trying to boil the ocean and tackle everything at once.\nStart by categorizing materials or components in your supply chain by importance and substitutability (I’m pretty sure that’s a word but if not, play along for now)\nYou’ll want to focus on the high-importance, hard-to-replace items your business depends on where you’re locked into your existing supply chain. Lower priority, more easily replaceable items can be dealt with later or may be sourced from elsewhere to save yourself a headache.\nNext, categorize things as either raw materials or differentiate between low and high-complexity goods.\n**Raw materials. **These should be easier to trace from the source to your supply chain. Blended batches will cause more headaches, but this is something you can start to stipulate with your suppliers.**Low complexity goods. **Fewer components mean fewer items to source and certify for you and the manufacturer. **High complexity goods. **These will be the most complicated and time-consuming to certify. Now, you’ll have a way to prioritize the goods and materials in your supply chain for compliance, minimizing disruption and ensuring that your most critical items are delayed the least.\nShort-term Action: Ensure your customers understand what’s happening\nCommunicate the potential impact on your consumers to allow them to plan accordingly. Supply chains remain tight, and goods and services are increasingly expensive, so your customers are particularly sensitive to delays and price increases. Communicating ahead of time might lose you some clients, but they would leave anyway. This way, you’re doing the right thing by your customers, increasing the loyalty of those who remain and improving your reputation, even with those who decide to go elsewhere.\nMid- to long-term action: Remove contentious regions from your supply chain\nThe UFLPA is not novel: we’ve had controls to remove blood diamonds from the international supply, and energy markets must regularly adapt to new sanctions against oil producers. However, the UFLPA does open the door to similar legislation targeting forced labor and child exploitation – the DRC’s rare earth mining operations spring to mind immediately. So you’d be prudent to identify potentially contentious sources of goods and materials you rely upon and proactively remove these from your supply chains. This will prepare you for future regulation and strengthen your ESG ratings significantly.\nIf you have Chinese goods or materials in your supply chain **Immediate Action: Assess your supply chain to determine your risk of suppliers being non-compliant **\nEven though you’re somewhat removed from your supplier’s operations, you’ll know where they source their materials and how likely they are to comply with the UFLPA thoroughly. You’ll still prioritize items by importance and substitutability (still a word), but you now need to assess your suppliers based on their transparency and quality.\nFirms supplying high-value items and goods that are also highly transparent are much more likely to take UFLPA compliance seriously, minimizing disruptions in the mid-to-long term. (Accept that the Act could cause disruptions for everyone in the short-term as everyone adapts.) Conversely, any firm producing low-quality items or materials that’s also opaque about their operations is more likely to cut corners on their compliance. So while the burden of compliance doesn’t rest on your shoulders, you can still assess how likely your suppliers are to comply with the UFLPA. If you’re confident they’ll comply, keep them in your supply chain but anticipate some delays while the regulations kick in. Otherwise, if you have concerns, start looking for other suppliers ASAP.\nMid-term Action: Anticipate the effects of any disruption and communicate with your customers.\nLike you, your customers don’t want to wait until disruption hits to learn about a problem. So anticipate when and where there might be delays and start communicating that to your customers. Anticipate their reaction – panic buying? switching to a competitor? – and make contingencies where you can. But, again, be proactive in your communication.\nMid- to long-term action: Remove contentious regions from your supply chain\nFinally, as I advised the suppliers, look at your supply chain and start to move to providers with less contentious origins. And look at how to use this as a differentiator: domestic production and high standards for workers are of increasing importance to consumers who are often willing to pay the associated premium for this kind of product. Nevertheless, the consequences for US Businesses who depend upon materials or goods from China could be significant, and you should take steps to insulate yourself against this disruption. That means paying attention to compliance in the short term and probably supply chain adjustments in the mid to long-term. And don’t think that this stops with the XAUR: the Department of Labor lists dozens of countries accused of using child and forced labor. So, difficult though it will be to implement, the UFLPA should be a prompt for businesses to clean up their supply chains. (Scroll to the bottom of the DOL report on forced labor in Xinjiang for examples.) This was the first So What? so I’d love to know what you thought. Hit reply and let me know how I did\n🔮🔮🔮🔮🔮 This wasn’t on my radar at all but now I know what to do.\n🔮🔮🔮 Gave me something fresh material on the issue\n🔮 Meh! Tell me something I don’t know next time\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/the-uyghur-forced-labor-prevention-act-just-came-into-effect-so-what/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGM and welcome to So What: your daily snippet of risky goodness that adds one extra headache to your to-do list. (But you’ll read it right away tomorrow anyway.)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLet’s dive in.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1685 words – 6 mins, 30 seconds read time\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"tldr\"\u003eTL;DR\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe UFLPA addresses US concerns about the use of the Uyghur as forced labor in China.Similar EU legislation is likely in the near future.UFLPA places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.Both importers and those who have Chinese goods in their supply chains should audit their supply chains and prepare for and adapt to any disruption.Over the mid-to-long term, companies should reduce their dependence upon goods and materials of Chinese origin and look for other parts of their supply chain that may be linked to forced labor.It places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Just Came Into Effect: So what?"},{"content":"Decis SITREPS[\nThe page you requested doesn\u0026rsquo;t exist We could not locate the page: /p/ukraine-and-russia-produce-over-1-3-of-the-world-s-grains-so-what\nTry one of the featured posts or search the archive below.\nArchiveAnalysisAI technicalMENAAfricaAll RatingsEuropeProductSITREPOceaniaAsiaAmericasProductProduct Sep 16, 2025## Decis is Now Part of Hedron Analytics The end of the SITREP\nAndrew Sheves](/authors)All RatingsAll Ratings+1+1 Sep 15, 2025## Monday SITREP: Global Ratings US-China Talks Enter Second Day, Romania Reports Russian Drone Incursion, Pakistan Border Raids Kill 54\nAndrew Sheves](/authors)AfricaAfrica+1+1 Sep 12, 2025## Friday SITREP: Africa Focus Nepal Protest Death Toll Hits 51, China Warns Mexico on Tariffs, Ukraine Launches Massive Russia Drone Attack, Weekend Diversions\nAndrew Sheves](/authors)SITREPSITREP+2+2 Sep 11, 2025## Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus Asia Oceania Roundup\nAndrew Sheves](/authors)MENAMENA+2+2 Sep 10, 2025## Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus Hamas Claims Leaders Survived Israeli Strike on Doha HQ, Macron Names Lecornu New PM\nAndrew Sheves](/authors)SITREPSITREP+1+1 Sep 09, 2025## Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus Nepal Protests Kill 19, Parliament Stormed, US Stocks Near Highs on Fed Cut Bets, France Faces Fresh Political Uncertainty\nAndrew Sheves](/authors)All RatingsAll Ratings+1+1 Sep 08, 2025## Monday SITREP: Global Ratings Milei Suffers Buenos Aires Landslide Defeat, Russia Hits Kyiv Government Building, Israel Intensifies Gaza Bombardment\nAndrew Sheves](/authors)AfricaAfrica+1+1[ ](/p/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/ukraine-and-russia-produce-over-1-3-of-the-world-s-grains-so-what/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eDecis SITREPS[\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"the-page-you-requested-doesnt-exist\"\u003eThe page you requested doesn\u0026rsquo;t exist\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe could not locate the page: \u003ca href=\"/p/ukraine-and-russia-produce-over-1-3-of-the-world-s-grains-so-what\"\u003e/p/ukraine-and-russia-produce-over-1-3-of-the-world-s-grains-so-what\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTry one of the featured posts or search the archive below.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eArchiveAnalysisAI technicalMENAAfricaAll RatingsEuropeProductSITREPOceaniaAsiaAmericas\u003ca href=\"/t/Product\"\u003eProduct\u003c/a\u003eProduct\u003ca href=\"/p/decis-is-now-part-of-hedron-analytics\"\u003e\n\u003c/a\u003eSep 16, 2025## Decis is Now Part of Hedron Analytics\nThe end of the SITREP\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves](/authors)\u003ca href=\"/t/All-Ratings\"\u003eAll Ratings\u003c/a\u003eAll Ratings\u003ca href=\"/t/SITREP\"\u003e+1\u003c/a\u003e+1\u003ca href=\"/p/monday-sitrep-global-ratings-349f\"\u003e\n\u003c/a\u003eSep 15, 2025## Monday SITREP: Global Ratings\nUS-China Talks Enter Second Day, Romania Reports Russian Drone Incursion, Pakistan Border Raids Kill 54\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAndrew Sheves](/authors)\u003ca href=\"/t/Africa\"\u003eAfrica\u003c/a\u003eAfrica\u003ca href=\"/t/SITREP\"\u003e+1\u003c/a\u003e+1\u003ca href=\"/p/friday-sitrep-africa-focus-480a\"\u003e\n\u003c/a\u003eSep 12, 2025## Friday SITREP: Africa Focus\nNepal Protest Death Toll Hits 51, China Warns Mexico on Tariffs, Ukraine Launches Massive Russia Drone Attack, Weekend Diversions\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Ukraine and Russia Produce Over 1/3 of the World's Grains. So what?"},{"content":"GM and welcome to So What: your snippet of risky goodness that (in this case) will bum you out before breakfast (you are reading this before breakfast, right?)\nLet’s dive in.\n1,200 words, 4:48 reading time\n1/5 of the world’s grains originate from Ukraine and Russia, meaning the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing a significant interruption to global food supplies. In addition to the detrimental effects on food security, this may also cause instability in some countries. Here’s why.\nVia Farm Policy\nSupply Side The Invasion Interrupted the Spring Sowing Season The Russian invasion coincided with the spring sowing season (March to May), meaning a significant proportion of Ukraine’s arable land was not planted for the summer 2022 harvest. Meanwhile, Ukrainian farmers could not adequately manage even crops in areas not directly affected by the conflict, with the result that overall yields from Ukrain are significantly affected.\nThe FAO estimates that 20 percent of winter planted areas will not be harvested due to direct destruction, constrained access, or lack of economic resources. In addition, yields in other regions are expected to decline by 10 percent due to delayed or missed application of fertilizers.\nFAO\n(These effects will be similarly felt in the sunflower seed market, where Ukraine produces over 25% of the global supply. This is highly significant, but sunflower oil seems more straightforward to replace than grains.)\nExports from Ukraine are Significantly Hampered The Russian Navy’s blockade of the Black Sea means that Ukraine’s grain exports – 98% of which is normally moved by sea – have been reduced to a trickle. Meanwhile, there is not the excess rail capacity to make up for this shortfall, meaning that Ukraine is unable to export grain from the 2021 harvest. Not only does this limit the current supply to global markets, but the reduction of storage capacity in Ukraine means less storage for the 2022 harvest, which will increase waste and further reduce availability.\nFertilizer Prices Spiked and Worldwide Yields Will Suffer Another side-effect of the conflict is that fertilizer prices have also risen dramatically. Russia and Belarus account for around 40% of the potash used as fertilizer worldwide, and a combination of export reductions and sanctions have cut supplies significantly. This price spike in spring 2022 put fertilizer out of the reach of poor farmers and forced even well-off producers to cut back. Consequently, worldwide yields in the summer / fall 2022 harvest of a range of crops will be reduced.\nCountries are hoarding supplies Some countries that would typically be grain exporters are preventing export and are hoarding supplies for domestic use. This reduces global food supplies further.\nSo the two big takeaways are: There is less food available The worldwide grain supply will be reduced significantly in 2022 and possibly into 2023. Other crop yields will also be reduced due to the reduced use of fertilizer, particularly in poorer countries.\nFood prices increase Supply, meet demand.\nTrading Economics\nDemand Side Food insecurity and undernourishment will increase The reduced supply of food and increased prices will push many vulnerable people into what the FAO calls’ undernourished’ status. Many of those who are already undernourished will be forced into malnutrition. Although these effects will be most notable in countries classed as Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), the poor and elderly in more affluent countries will also feel the effects and have to choose between paying for food and other needs. (Budgetary difficulties will be exacerbated by the increase in energy costs, also linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.)\nGlobally, if the conflict results in a sudden and prolonged reduction in food exports by Ukraine and the Russian Federation, it could exert additional upward pressure on international food commodity prices to the detriment of economically vulnerable countries, in particular. FAO’s simulations suggest that under such a scenario, the global number of undernourished people could increase by 8 to 13 million people in 2022/23, with the most pronounced increases taking place in Asia-Pacific, followed by sub-Saharan Africa, and the Near East and North Africa. FAO\nThe most acute effects are likely to be felt in the Horn of Africa where a drought has caused a famine affecting millions. The reduced availability of basic foodstuffs like grain and sunflower oil, plus higher prices, mean that aid agencies will have less food to supply to those with the most acute need.\nFAO\nCountries that subsidize wheat products could become unstable Many countries subsidize the price of bread to ensure that this staple is always affordable and readily available. These subsidies cost a significant amount. Ali Al-Moselhi, who oversees subsidies [in Egypt], said that whilst a loaf of bread is sold for five piasters with a ration card, in reality, it costs 65 piasters and that is before the recent rise in the cost of wheat.\nMiddle East Monitor\nThese subsidized foodstuffs are vital to the less well-off in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East, where such subsidies are common. However, the issue is also a potential flashpoint, and previous attempts to remove subsidies have become violent. This leaves governments such as Egypt’s in a difficult position: continue to spend more on grain subsidies, placing significant pressure on the economy, or risk widespread unrest by increasing prices. If the food shortages drag into 2023, this decision may be out of their hands as countries may be forced to reduce subsidies as the cost grows too high.\nSo what? There are so many implications of this situation that it’s hard to go into each in detail, so I’ll summarize some top-level considerations.\nIf you are reliant on the affected foodstuffs or fertilizers, plan for interruptions into 2023. There is no clear end state to the conflict in Ukraine, and the expansion of support from NATO seems incremental and designed to hold Russia at bay, not to provide a decisive Ukrainian victory. Meanwhile, Russia is content to wage a war of attrition, making incremental territorial gains but unable to mount a decisive attack on Ukraine. Even if there is a negotiated settlement in 2022, the effects on food and energy prices will carry on into 2023. Any remaining Russian blockade of the Black Sea will extend the disruption.\nIf you are in a country classed as Low-Income Food-Deficit (LIFDCs), plan for increased food shortages and lower-paid workers to face increased food insecurity. The security situation will decrease as the food shortages become more acute.\nIf you are adjacent to regions with existing or increasing food insecurity, migration will increase. This will place additional strain on the economy and infrastructure of the recipient community. Where tensions exist, these will be exacerbated by the influx of people and instability is likely.\nIf you are in a country where the population relies upon food subsidies, expect increased tension as the fear of a subsidy reduction grows. Any actual reduction of a subsidy will cause protests which may become violent, depending upon the posture of the local security forces. (Note that a similar situation will occur anywhere fuel subsidies are threatened.)\nThat’s a wrap on number two of So What? so I’d love to know what you thought or what I should tackle next. Publish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/ukraine-and-russia-produce-over-1-3-of-the-worlds-grains-so-what/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGM and welcome to So What: your snippet of risky goodness that (in this case) will bum you out before breakfast (you are reading this before breakfast, right?)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLet’s dive in.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1,200 words, 4:48 reading time\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1/5 of the world’s grains originate from Ukraine and Russia, meaning the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing a significant interruption to global food supplies. In addition to the detrimental effects on food security, this may also cause instability in some countries. Here’s why.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Ukraine and Russia Produce Over 1/3 of the World’s Grains. So what?"},{"content":"Good morning.\nTwo quick updates today plus the customized risk / opportunity ratings.\nClick here to try out customized reports.\nRussia on the Offense Prior to February 24 Russia appears to be building up for a concentrated offensive in Ukraine to coincide with next week’s one-year anniversary of its invasion. Additional missile strikes took place on Thursday morning and Russian forces appear to be making progress in taking the city of Bakhmut which would put them within striking distance of other major cities in the northwest Donetsk region. See Reuters for more.\nThe FT has live updated maps of the conflict here.\nNigerian Elections: Strong Showing by Third-Party Candidate Peter Obi Nigeria’s presidential election is stil a couple of weeks away but third-party candidate, Peter Obi, is doing well in the polls and is a strong contender to win the election.\nImage Pius Utomi Ekpei via AFP.\nAlthough a lot may happen before election day – such as the trouble with the country’splanned currency switch – even if unsuccessful, Obi’s performance seems set to break the two-party status quo that many Nigerians have complained about.\nRead more from the AFP via Barron’s.\nOn to the customized numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nThe normal metrics are included in the customized SITREP below.\nPRO users get these reports emailed to them daily to help with their situational awareness and decision-making. Start a PRO trial here.\nHere’s the Daily SITREP for Tarjuman LLC for February 16, 2023 Current risk profile Shipping Summary\nThe Shipping (FBX) index is currently $1995.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, shipping presents a Significant opportunity.\nResponse considerations\nImpliment contingencies:\nPre-book next quarter’s shipments\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nWheat Summary\nWheat is currently $682.25.\nWheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little flutuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, wheat presents a Low risk.\nResponse considerations\nConduct routine monitoring\nMarket Volatility Summary\nThe Market Volatility (VIX) is currently 18.91.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, volatility presents a Critical opportunity.\nResponse considerations\nImpliment contingencies:\nLook for competitors in distress and consider buy-out\nIron and Steel Summary\nThe Iron and Steel index is currently $147.51.\nIron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, iron and steel present a Low opportunity.\nResponse considerations\nConduct routine monitoring\nOil Summary\nBrent Crude futures are currently $81.94.\nBrent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nRisk Profile\nFor Tarjuman LLC, oil prices present a Low risk.\nResponse considerations\nConduct routine monitoring\nPalate cleanser Catwalks became dog walks at New York’s Fashion Week last week during the runway during ‘CatWalk FurBaby show’. Presumably, the cats were busy.\nImage: Reuters/Jeenah Moon\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/ukraine-anniversary-offensive-nigerian-elections-plus-custom-reports/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTwo quick updates today plus the customized risk / opportunity ratings.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://research.dcdr.io/upgrade?offer_id=375c6654-21b7-40c8-bd39-812257cb3b61\"\u003eClick here to try out customized reports.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"russia-on-the-offense-prior-to-february-24\"\u003eRussia on the Offense Prior to February 24\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRussia appears to be building up for a concentrated offensive in Ukraine to coincide with next week’s one-year anniversary of its invasion. Additional missile strikes took place on Thursday morning and Russian forces appear to be making progress in taking the city of Bakhmut which would put them within striking distance of other major cities in the northwest Donetsk region. \u003ca href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-declares-battlefield-gains-nato-ramps-up-military-equipment-ukraine-2023-02-15/\"\u003eSee Reuters for more\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Ukraine Anniversary Offensive, Nigerian Elections, plus custom reports."},{"content":" Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’[ Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’ Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’ Good morning.\nTunisia’s second-round voting had a similarly low turnout as the first round making it unclear what will happen next. Recent attacks in Israel, Palestine, and Iran signal a period of heightened tension that feels poised to boil over.\nMeanwhile, Czech voters clearly returned formed NATO General Pavel with 58% of the vote, signaling their preference to remain aligned with the West. On a (hopefully) positive note, China’s CDC declared that the current wave of COVID infections was coming to an end. No Clarity in Tunisia After 2nd Round of Voting Tunisia’s run-off election this weekend saw only around 11% of voters turn out after opposition parties called for Tunisians to boycott the election. This was a similarly low number as in the first round of voting in late 2022. This leaves Tunisia with a weak parliament, a President with no clear mandate, and high levels of tension as prices rise and goods become more scarce.\nLast week, Moody’s downgraded Tunisia’s credit rating due to the poor state of the country’s governance, adding to the country’s difficulties.\n“Moody’s said the downgrade represents a deterioration of governance in the face of growing social constraints. The pessimistic view captures adverse risks associated with more delays in securing and executing a supported IMF policy, a government-specified target.”\nForbes Middle East Reporting What happens next in Tunisia is unclear until President Saied responds to the results. Read Reuters for more\nFormer NATO General Pavel Wins in Czech Elections Retired General Petr Pavel won the presidential election in the Czech Republic this week with over 58% of the vote, clearly signaling the Czech people’s desire to retain strong ties with the west. A win for his opponent, Andrej Babis, would have continued the country’s turn toward Beijing and Moscow, adding considerable strain to the EU and Western coalition, particularly with respect to the opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. More in Reuters\nChian’s CDC Announces ‘End’ of COVID Wave Chian’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that the wave of COVID infections that tore through the country after tight restrictions were lifted in December was “coming to an end”. This is despite the huge number of people who had traveled around the country during the Lunar New Year celebrations. China has been criticized for the accuracy of its COVID reporting and Lunar New Year was only a week or so ago but if this wave is coming to and end, the country will be on track for an economic resurgence starting in mid-February. Expect oil and raw material prices to respond as demand increases, but extra demand may have already been priced in, so fluctu\nCarpe tomorrow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/uncertainty-in-tunisia-czechs-reject-eastward-turn-middle-east-attacks-and-chinas-covid-wave-coming/","summary":"\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eUncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’[\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eUncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"uncertainty-in-tunisia-czechs-reject-eastward-turn-middle-east-attacks-and-chinas-covid-wave-coming-to-an-end\"\u003eUncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTunisia’s second-round voting had a similarly low turnout as the first round making it unclear what will happen next. Recent attacks in Israel, Palestine, and Iran signal a period of heightened tension that feels poised to boil over.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China's COVID wave coming to an end"},{"content":"Good morning.\nTunisia’s second-round voting had a similarly low turnout as the first round making it unclear what will happen next. Recent attacks in Israel, Palestine, and Iran signal a period of heightened tension that feels poised to boil over.\nMeanwhile, Czech voters clearly returned formed NATO General Pavel with 58% of the vote, signaling their preference to remain aligned with the West. On a (hopefully) positive note, China’s CDC declared that the current wave of COVID infections was coming to an end. No Clarity in Tunisia After 2nd Round of Voting Tunisia’s run-off election this weekend saw only around 11% of voters turn out after opposition parties called for Tunisians to boycott the election. This was a similarly low number as in the first round of voting in late 2022. This leaves Tunisia with a weak parliament, a President with no clear mandate, and high levels of tension as prices rise and goods become more scarce.\nLast week, Moody’s downgraded Tunisia’s credit rating due to the poor state of the country’s governance, adding to the country’s difficulties.\n“Moody’s said the downgrade represents a deterioration of governance in the face of growing social constraints. The pessimistic view captures adverse risks associated with more delays in securing and executing a supported IMF policy, a government-specified target.”\nForbes Middle East Reporting\nWhat happens next in Tunisia is unclear until President Saied responds to the results. Read Reuters for more\nFormer NATO General Pavel Wins in Czech Elections Retired General Petr Pavel won the presidential election in the Czech Republic this week with over 58% of the vote, clearly signaling the Czech people’s desire to retain strong ties with the west. A win for his opponent, Andrej Babis, would have continued the country’s turn toward Beijing and Moscow, adding considerable strain to the EU and Western coalition, particularly with respect to the opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. More in Reuters\nChian’s CDC Announces ‘End’ of COVID Wave Chian’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that the wave of COVID infections that tore through the country after tight restrictions were lifted in December was “coming to an end”. This is despite the huge number of people who had traveled around the country during the Lunar New Year celebrations. China has been criticized for the accuracy of its COVID reporting and Lunar New Year was only a week or so ago but if this wave is coming to and end, the country will be on track for an economic resurgence starting in mid-February. Expect oil and raw material prices to respond as demand increases, but extra demand may have already been priced in, so fluctuation may not be as great as was previously expected. See the BBC for more. Attacks in Israel, Palestine and Iran In the last week, there have been multiple Israeli raids into the Palestinian West Bank, resulting in multiple deaths and leaving many others homeless. In Gaza, Israeli jets retaliated after rocket attacks hit southern Israel. And in Jerusalem, two separate attacks on Friday and Saturday left seven Israelis dead and two others wounded. Meanwhile, a weekend attack on munitions and missile factories in Isfahan, central Iran, was blamed on Israel.\nA video still reportedly of the attack on Isfahan, Iran. Photo, West Asia News Agency, via Reuters\nIt would be very easy to ignore this as the ‘same old’ regional back and forth, or to get sucked into the usual arguments about who started it and fight over nomenclature. However, none of that solves these complex problems and overlooks the fact this seems to be a time of particular tension with a hard-line government in Jerusalem, a weak Palestinian Authority, and a government in Tehran looking for an excuse to divert attention away from a domestic uprising.\nThe chance of further escalation appears very high as does the potential for a retaliatory attack by Iran on Israeli interests elsewhere.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nEvaluation (Note: I’m dropping the daily commentary on the metrics as a few people said this was repetitive if things haven’t changed. I’ll add anything new or worthwhile in the daily emails. Otherwise, these will just appear in an end-of-week round-up on Fridays. Disagree? Hit reply and let me know.)\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\n(No change) Brent Crude remains mid-range for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\n(No change) Iron and Steel remain very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation and continue to creep up. (Note that the Iron and Steel index is on the Taiwanese exchange, which is closed for lunar New Year so these values are from January 17.)\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\n(No Change) Market Volatility (VIX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased sharply over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat has moved into the high range for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after some fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 5: Cyprus, PresidentFebruary 5: Monaco, ParliamentFebruary 5: Ecuador, ReferendumFebruary 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and SenateTurkey’s elections have been brought forward to May 14.\nPalate Cleanser Panda keeper: best job in the world or worst job? You watch and decide.\nVideo via China.org.cn\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/uncertainty-in-tunisia-czechs-reject-eastward-turn-middle-east-attacks-and-chinas-covid-wave-coming-to-an-end/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTunisia’s second-round voting had a similarly low turnout as the first round making it unclear what will happen next. Recent attacks in Israel, Palestine, and Iran signal a period of heightened tension that feels poised to boil over.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, Czech voters clearly returned formed NATO General Pavel with 58% of the vote, signaling their preference to remain aligned with the West. On a (hopefully) positive note, China’s CDC declared that the current wave of COVID infections was coming to an end. \u003c/p\u003e","title":"Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’"},{"content":"Good morning.\nThe real work to avoid a US deficit starts today and will give us a sense of how the stage of the drama will unfold. A terrible attack in Pakistan left 100 dead and ratches up tension.\nMeanwhile, reports of inaccuracies in one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas crediting programs are a good reminder to take care and conduct your due diligence. Otherwise, you might find you’re making misleading statements to regulators and shareholders which (checks notes) is bad.\nThe US Deficit Fight: Round 1 The real work to avoid a default, or even the perception that there might be a default, starts today when President Biden meets Speaker McCarthy. The President has until Monday (February 6th) to propose a budget which should be finalized by March 9th. What is said, unsaid, and hinted at over the next few weeks will give us a sense of how likely it is that some kind of agreement can be reached. Although I titled this ‘Round 1’, the number of rounds and the timeline overall are unclear. As a reminder, there’s no exact date when the US will fully run out of cash. ‘Technical measures’ are already in place, but there’s no way to calculate an exact date when the US will technically default. Moreover, there doesn’t need to be an actual default for damage to be caused, as we saw in the last big debt fight in 2011. Then, just the increased concern that default might occur led to the rating agencies downgrading US bonds. There’s real concern that the experience of 2011 has been forgotten by many, and is being downplayed by others.\n“I think that the possibility of miscalculation runs higher today than it did in 2011,”\nNeil Bradley, a former top Cantor aide, via Reuters\nHere’s a deeper dive into sovereign debt in general, and the repercussions of a debt-ceiling showdown in the US.\nSecurity in Pakistan After Mosque Attack The death toll in Monday’s suicide bombing at a police barracks in Peshawar, Pakistan, is now reported to be 100, with another 170 wounded. The attack was terrible in itself, but the fact that the attack could get deep into the heart of a well-fortified area means that many areas previously considered secure may now be under greater threat. Several armed groups oppose Pakistan’s government but the main armed opposition, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has denied carrying out the attack. However, there are reports that Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISK / ISKP), an offshoot of the TTP, has admitted responsibility. People and rescue workers gather to look for survivors under a collapsed roof, after a suicide blast in a mosque in Peshawar, Pakistan January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Fayaz Aziz\nPakistan is already under significant financial pressure, still suffering from the damage and losses caused by flooding in 2022 and preparing for what will likely be contentious elections this year. Attacks in previously secure areas make things more tense and could also bring about a destabilizing event, such as the death of a senior government or opposition figure. See Reuters for more.\nHow Accurate Are Carbon Offsets? I stumbled across a Guardian investigation into inaccurate, or at least embellished, carbon credit certification by Verra “The world’s leading greenhouse gas [GHG] crediting program.” The Guardian headline gets straight to the point, “more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets by biggest certifier are worthless, analysis shows”, and the article cites several researchers who assess that Verra’s estimation of the number of trees saved were significantly inflated.\nYou can read the Guardian article here and Verra’s rebuttal here.\nI don’t think there’s a simple answer as to who’s right and wrong in this case: as they say, ‘it’s complicated’. However, two things did stand out that I think are worth keeping in mind.\nSeems like a good time for a relaxing image of some trees. Image DaYsO on Unsplash\nOffsets Might not Match Credits First, although Verra countered that the studies were flawed and inconsistent, their response didn’t deny that there may be some discrepancy between the amount of deforestation credited, and the actual amount of forest saved. This could be between 10-25% so potentially a significant difference between the amount of carbon offset reported and the actual amount offset may be different. Thorough due diligence should spot something like this and be able to account for that in reporting but, if due diligence isn’t carried out, there’s a distinct possibility that the amounts of carbon or other GHG reported as offset are incorrect.\nVerra stresses that its REDD program is voluntary but might be used to meet mandatory requirements.\n“The voluntary carbon market is distinct from compliance markets, which are largely driven by government policies or legally binding agreements. In some compliance markets, entities can purchase and use carbon credits generated by carbon projects to comply with the respective regulations or requirements.”\nVerra\nSo anyone relying on a carbon-trading system, even one as well-established as the REDD program seems to be, would be well-advised to confirm the accuracy of the trades they are making to avoid falling foul of regulators. Remember, someone has to sign and certify that your regulatory reports and statements to shareholders are accurate: best be sure that you’ve checked to make sure that’s the case.\nDeforestation ≠ Reforestation Second, part of this market is presenting deforestation, not reforestation. So instead of planting a tree, you’re paying to stop a tree from being cut down. This feels like double accounting: after all, that tree is already hard at work sequestering someone else’s carbon. Keeping it alive doesn’t help mitigate the additional carbon you’re emitting so it doesn’t seem a one-for-one trade.\nI’ve no doubt that this is explained in the REDD program’s detailed paperwork somewhere but at first glance, that wasn’t apparent to me and may not be apparent to others who are participating in these programs.\nAgain, you may need to be sure that what you’re reporting to shareholders and regulators is accurate, and blaming the exchange may not be enough to get away with wildly inaccurate statements. Do your third-party due diligence.\nWhatever Verra is doing seems to be net-positive and we desperately need an effective market for GHG trading and sequestration. However, this seems like a good reminder that there may be discrepancies in the ‘exchange rates’ and effectiveness of these programs and, particularly if these are part of a regulatory filing, you should check your homework.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel remains very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat remains very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after some fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nPalate cleanser The nice people at Beehiiv (the platform I use to send this email) wrote a haiku about the Daily STREP.\nThanks guys!\n(BTW, if you’re interested in starting your own newsletter with these fine folks at Beehiiv 🐝 you can sign up here.)\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/us-debt-fight-round-1-unease-in-pakistan-and-how-reliable-is-carbon-offset-reporting/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe real work to avoid a US deficit starts today and will give us a sense of how the stage of the drama will unfold. A terrible attack in Pakistan left 100 dead and ratches up tension.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, reports of inaccuracies in one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas crediting programs are a good reminder to take care and conduct your due diligence. Otherwise, you might find you’re making misleading statements to regulators and shareholders which (checks notes) is bad.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"US Debt Fight Round 1, Unease in Pakistan, and How Reliable is Carbon Offset Reporting?"},{"content":"Good morning.\nMonday is President’s Day so there’s no SITREP and then you’ll see a difference in the content and frequency of the free emails as the PRO plans kick in. So, starting Tuesday:\nPRO subscribers get the daily updates and customized risk metrics.General subscribers get the Friday round up only.\nYou can try the PRO plan for free here. (And if you have any questions on what you get in the PRO plan, and how the customization works, please just hit reply and I’ll send you more information.) Otherwise, I’ll see you again on Friday.\nOn with the updates.\nX-Date Update X-Date, the day the US is no longer able to service its debts, is likely to fall between July and September, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO estimate is slightly later than Treasury Secretary Yellen’s initial estimate of June but the exact date will depend upon the tax income received by the Treasury. Tax day in the US is April 15 so a clearer estimate of X-Date should be available then.\nMeanwhile, there’s been little movement on negotiations over the debt ceiling, although both Congressional leaders and the White House are publicly committed to a deal. The CBO date of July may make some feel that this isuse is not urgent but the experience of 2011 should be a reminder that even a fear of a US default is enough to hurt America’s economy significantly.\n“In my assessment — and that of economists across the board — a default on our debt would produce an economic and financial catastrophe,” Ms. Yellen said at the National Association of Counties Legislative Conference. “Household payments on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards would rise, and American businesses would see credit markets deteriorate.”\nCalling on Congress to act, she added: “This economic catastrophe is preventable.”\nTreasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen via the New York Times\nArrests of Opposition Figures in Tunisia Increase Arrests of opposition figures, trade union leaders and journalists in Tunisia continue to increase as President Kais Saied increasingly tightens control. There are no signs of any resolution to the inconclusive elections in January and February and, instead, Saied seems to be consolidating even more control while cracking down on any kind of opposition. Tunisia remains in an economically fragile state and is also isolated diplomatically from her neighbors and other influential regional powers, particularly the gulf states.\nIt’s hard to see how this situation can be resolved without some dramatic turn of events and it seems likely that Tunisia will become more unstable before there’s any chance of resolution. Read more in Reuters.\nMoldova’s New PM Moldova’s new Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, was installed on Thursday following the abrupt resignation of the previous government last Friday. Moldova is beset with economic difficulties and is particularly vulnerable to the war in neighboring Ukraine due to its dependency on Ukraine for some economic and energy needs plus an influx of refugees after the Russian invasion last year. Adding additional complication is the significant presence of Russian troops in the eastern province of Transdniestria, which claimed its independence from Moldova and sought protection from Moscow in the early 1990s. (Read more from the Carnegie Endowment here.)\nPrime Minister, Dorin Recean, Reuters / Vladislav Culiomza\nPrime Minister Recean is strongly pro-European and has committed to improve the economy and accelerate the country’s accession to the EU. However, it is important to remember that the previous government ended amidst concerns that Moscow was planning a coup or destabilizing operation in Moldova, a threat that won’t diminish with an even more pro-European government in place.\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is high for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is very low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and SenateMarch 5: Estonia, Parliament\nPalate cleansers Here’s a cat working very hard on a tiny laptop\nCats With Jobs on Twitter\nAnd an explanation of how ChatGTP works from Stephan Wolfram\n‘It’s just adding one word at a time’. Aren’t we all, Stephen? Aren’t we all….\nThat’s it for the week. See you on Friday (unless you go PRO, in which case I will see you on Tuesday).\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/us-deficit-timeline-update-more-arrests-in-tunisia-and-a-new-prime-minister-in-moldova/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMonday is President’s Day so there’s no SITREP and then you’ll see a difference in the content and frequency of the free emails as the PRO plans kick in. So, starting Tuesday:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePRO subscribers get the daily updates and customized risk metrics.General subscribers get the Friday round up only.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://research.dcdr.io/upgrade?offer_id=375c6654-21b7-40c8-bd39-812257cb3b61\"\u003eYou can try the PRO plan for free here\u003c/a\u003e. (And if you have any questions on what you get in the PRO plan, and how the customization works, please just hit reply and I’ll send you more information.) \u003c/p\u003e","title":"US Deficit Timeline Update, More Arrests in Tunisia and a New Prime Minister in Moldova"},{"content":"Good morning.\nI got sucked into a supply chain vortex on Bloomberg this morning and did some digging around so you don’t have to.\nIt turns out the world over-ordered during COVID and now, some supply chains are full of surplus goods and materials. This could be a great opportunity for some but signals big problems for others.\nHowever, it’s also a good reminder of why you need to take a historic view in your planning, something that toilet paper manufacturers understood, but Peleton didn’t.\n(I said I got pulled in.)\nI have a quick favor to ask: please let me know what your planning cycle looks like. That will help me get the timescale right for the trends and relative metrics.\nWe Have Too Much Stuff Supply chains are tricky things to get right at the best of times. Throw in a pandemic that shuts down production in many areas, increases demand in others, and changes work and life patterns for many, and it becomes even more difficult. So, when even a small change by consumers has a substantial effect on suppliers, something the size of a pandemic causes enormous difficulties.\n“The bullwhip effect is the tendency for small changes at one end of the supply chain to lead to big swings at the other end.\nSo, for instance, retailers might anticipate or experience a drop in customer demand, which leads them to cut back on their orders, which causes suppliers and manufactures to pull back production. “\nTracy Alloway in Bloomnerg’s ‘Odd Lot’s Newsletter\nNo, not that bullwhip effect\nAdding financial hardship to the mix means that, even if the goods on offer were what people wanted, they weren’t going to buy something unless absolutely necessary. The short version: we have too much stuff because we made stuff people didn’t want anymore or people don’t have the money for stuff they do want.\nChipocalypse Now The big news right now is the glut of memory chips on the market and are resultant crash in industry leaders. Chip foundries ramped up production to meet COVID-era demands (remember when you couldn’t buy a gaming PC or new car in 2021 because there were no chips available?), only to discover that austerity-minded consumers aren’t buying new gadgets.\nThis has led to chip sales dropping by 30-50%, a collapse in prices, and companies racking up losses in the tens of billions of dollars. See Bloomberg for more.\nWhat will complicate things even further, are US and EU plans to increase domestic chip manufacturing to boost competitiveness, reduce reliance on China, and insulate against any attack on Taiwan. This increase in chip manufacturing capacity will cause additional ripples in the supply chain.\nIt’s Not Just Memory Chips More generally, there are record-high US retail inventories stacking up, waiting for consumers who may or may not appear. Fears are growing that these inventories are so great that they may be worth just pennies on the dollar. “This suggests that $1 of inventory is associated with only $0.6 in sales, far lower than long-term trends and clearly unsustainable in the long run.”\nBarclays analysts, Dominique Toublan\nRead the whole article on supply inventories in Bloomberg here\nTake a Historic view In the short run, this suggests that there are bargains out there for organizations that are reliant on some of these over-inventoried goods.\nIn the long-term, it’s a good reminder that a historic view is useful in supply chain and demand planning, something that’s summed up well in this piece in Bloomberg ‘How Tech Companies Could Learn Something From Toilet Paper Makers’\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nCommentary and Evaluation Brent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation in the low-$70 to low-$80 range.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel remains very high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is low for this 90-day interval. The index decreased moderately over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is high for this 90-day interval. Prices increased moderately over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\n(No change) Shipping (FBX index) remains very low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after some fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nPalate cleansers Rio Tinto may be looking for a new head of radioactive safety in Australia\nEnjoy the last day of January, here’s what February brings\nKevin Killeen, @knoxkilleen on Twitter\nPublish on Beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/11/we-have-too-much-stuff/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI got sucked into a supply chain vortex on Bloomberg this morning and did some digging around so you don’t have to.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt turns out the world over-ordered during COVID and now, some supply chains are full of surplus goods and materials. This could be a great opportunity for some but signals big problems for others.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, it’s also a good reminder of why you need to take a historic view in your planning, something that toilet paper manufacturers understood, but Peleton didn’t.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"We Have Too Much Stuff"},{"content":"\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/03/10/sitrep-friday-march-10-2023/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://mcusercontent.com/52b1c8636fce7c5f384527220/images/60a918e5-260b-e96f-f0f1-e5109ec06f8c.png\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://mcusercontent.com/52b1c8636fce7c5f384527220/images/795d2f7e-3a5e-47fc-8cc1-b62b6fc21d98.png\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"SITREP for Friday, March 10, 2023"},{"content":"Good morning.\n🇳🇬 Nigerians Vote Nigerians will elect their new president and parliament this weekend with third-party candidate Peter Obi leading recent polls (ANAP Foundation). Obi has a strong following amongst younger Nigerians and a win would signal a break from some of the traditional political power structures in the country. However, there is still a significant margin for error in the polls and all three leading candidates have strong bases of support so a close election and run-off are still a significant possibility.\nThe four main candidates via Wikipedia. Currently, Obi, Tinubu and Abubakar are the leading three candidates.\nWhoever wins the presidency will inherit a range of intractable economic and security issues and ‘quick wins’ will be in short supply. (See Bloomberg for more.) Traditional divisions between the north and south, and disappointment amongst supporters of the losing candidates, will further hobble the new president suggesting that there’s no easy path back to prosperity for Nigeria.\nMore coverage and analysis in The Conversation and The FT\nSabre Rattling in the South Pacific Original Musical Poster, © Majestic Theatre\nWhile much of the world’s attention has been on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there are several developments in the Asia Pacific region worth keeping track of. Most relate to the struggle for influence between the US and China but North Korea still remains a significant potential source of instability.\n🇹🇼 On Thursday, there were reports that Washington will increase the number of troops in Taiwain from around 100 to 200. While the number is very small, this will be seen as a provocation by Beijing, increasing the tension that has risen since the Chinese surveillance balloon was shot down after passing over the US two weeks ago. (More in Blomberg.)\n🇵🇭 Separately, the Philippines has strengthened military ties with the US as Manila takes a tougher security stance to protect her maritime interests in the region.\nPresident Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who took office in June, has adopted the most muscular foreign policy approach that the Philippines has seen in close to a decade. He is seeking out alliances, restoring his country’s defense ties with the United States and prioritizing his country’s territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.\nEarlier this month, Mr. Marcos agreed to grant the United States military access to four new defense sites in the Philippines. On the same day, Washington said it would restart its joint patrols of the South China Sea with the Philippines, which had been suspended by Manila for six years. There is speculation that Subic Bay, a crown jewel among the many naval sites in Philippines, will also welcome American soldiers in the coming months.\nFrom the NYT\n🇰🇵 Meanwhile, North Korea tested nuclear-capable cruise missiles on Thursday to demonstrate the country’s ability to mount a counterattack in the event of any hostile action. A strategic cruise missile is launched during a drill in this undated photo released on February 24, 2023 by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via Reuters\n“the war posture of the DPRK nuclear combat force bolstering up in every way its deadly nuclear counterattack capability against the hostile forces,”\nNorth Korean News Agency KCNA in Reuters\n🇰🇷 This test took place as the US and South Korea conducted tabletop exercises and joint military drills, preparing for an attack by North Korea. (Reuters.)\nOn to the numbers\n(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis, the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)\nRelative Values (90-Days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nTrends (21-days) Turn your phone for a better view ⟳\nBrent Crude Potentially impacting: Fuel prices | Gound shipping costs. | Plastic prices | Changes to fuel subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living (especially transport and heating) | Changes to traffic volume/transportation choices | Demand for automotive products | Theft and smuggling.\nBrent Crude is low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nIron and Steel Potentially impacting: Cost of construction projects | Construction project timelines | Cost/availability of raw materials | Infrastructure project timelines/costs | Cost and availability of finished metal goods | Value of scrap | Value of 2nd hand equipment/vehicles.\nIron and Steel are very high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after slight fluctuation.\nMarket Volatility (VIX-US) Potentially impacting: Availability of capital for investment | Interest rates| Share prices | Consumer confidence | House prices/rent | Financial certainty/uncertainty | Financial models | Stock-based compensation values.\nMarket Volatility (VIX) is high for this 90-day interval. The index increased sharply over the last 21 days after moderate fluctuation.\nWheat Potentially impacting: Bread, pasta, couscous \u0026amp; noodle prices | Changes to food subsidies (potentially leading to unrest) | Cost of living | Movement from low-income to food insecure to undernourished | Increased theft or graft in loosely governed areas | Demand on charities.\nWheat is high for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days with little fluctuation.\nOcean Freight (FBX) Potentially impacting: Supply chain costs (direct and indirect) | Supply chain delays | Port capacity/throughput speed | Customs clearance | Availability of goods and materials | Consumer demand/hoarding.\nShipping (FBX) is very low for this 90-day interval. Prices ended relatively flat over the last 21 days after significant fluctuation.\nUp-to-date shipping data supplied by our partner Freightos\nElection Watch February 25: Nigeria, President, House of Representatives and SenateMarch 5: Estonia, Parliament\nPalate Cleansers Maybe this email should have been a Tweet….\nCats With Jobs on Twitter\nHappy Friday!\nVia Excel Humor\nPowered by beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/02/23/nigerians-vote-and-a-south-pacific-remake/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGood morning.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"-nigerians-vote\"\u003e🇳🇬 Nigerians Vote\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNigerians will elect their new president and parliament this weekend with third-party candidate Peter Obi leading recent polls (\u003ca href=\"https://www.anapfoundation.com/press-releases/2023-elections-peter-obi-maintains-lead-amongst-presidential-poll-respondents\"\u003eANAP Foundation\u003c/a\u003e). Obi has a strong following amongst younger Nigerians and a win would signal a break from some of the traditional political power structures in the country. However, there is still a significant margin for error in the polls and all three leading candidates have strong bases of support so a close election and run-off are still a significant possibility.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Nigerians Vote and a South Pacific Remake"},{"content":"Note that things are moving very quickly with AI and OpenAI. CatGTP in particular so some of the issues below may have been fixed by the time you read this. (Sadly, not the bits that involve humans.)\nSome things to think about before you dive into GTP3 Like most of us, I love new toys. And like many others, I’ve been playing with OpenAIs tools since access opened up last year. With GTP4 scheduled for release soon and rumors that Google and Facebook both have pending AI releases, a lot will happen with AI in the near future.\nHowever, there’s also a danger here. Not in the AI-is-going-to-kill-us kind of way (although that is a concern which is why I am always polite and say ‘good morning’ to HAL). Instead, the danger is that the current models look better than they are: credible, beautifully written answers are returned that are, in fact, beautifully written garbage, but only a subject-matter-expert would know. Or the data seems complete, but there are substantial blind spots.\nSo while everyone is playing with Chat GTP and announcing that they’ve had the AI write their [press release | exercise scenario | security assessment | book report], there are some flaws to watch out for. Here’s what I keep in mind to help me get more out of the tool. 1 – The data isn’t current. GTP3 does not draw live information from the internet, so the data available isn’t always current. For example, trying to get the price of Brent Crude returned the price from April 2021. A few moments later, the answer returned was from November 2020.\nMoments later…\nHaving run this query several times before, the date of the value wasn’t always included in the answer, so you could easily get a plausible answer to a question but not realize that the result was out of date.\nSo think about how current the data needs to be to get you the answer you need. If it’s less than 12-18 months, the current model won’t get you what you need.\n2 – Think about your prompts. You’ll see that in the examples above, I added a second part to the question, requesting the date of the results. That’s a straightforward example of how the answer you get very much depends on the framing of the question. Even something as apparently obvious as getting a book summary might need careful thought. I asked the model to get me a summary of one of my books, sending it the title and author’s name. It returned a great summary, except it was someone else’s book. When I tinkered with the prompt, I got a review of my book. But again, if I hadn’t been familiar with the contents of the book I asked to be summarized, I would have had no idea that the results were from a different book. You’ll see how specific prompts are becoming for image generation if you look at some of the prompts used in DALL-E and Stable Diffusion.\nPrompt and image from Metaverse Post\nSo think about your question and be as specific as possible. GIGO applies to prompts as well as data.\n3 – The models can only learn from the available data. We need to keep in mind that although the corpus* these models are trained on is extensive, there’s a lot that’s not available. The discussions that led up to a decision might not be captured in the meeting minutes; the propriety data that went into a forecast is separate from the public record; records in languages other than English are a much smaller proportion of the training data.\nSo before you ask ChatGTP to produce a piece of analysis, you need to ask yourself the likelihood of it having access to what it needs to do a good job. And again, remember that a lot of the data will be months out of date.\n(*It’s mandatory to include the word ‘corpus” when writing about AI models – I don’t make the rules.)\n4 – They can’t do math. So yes, if you ask what 5 * 4 is, you’ll get an answer, but you quickly run into problems if you try to feed the models a bunch of data and ask them to run calculations. I spent an entire afternoon trying to rebuild the DCDR assessment tool with OpenAI but got stuck on the base calculations immediately. I wrote the same prompt over and over again, rewriting the prompt and reformatting the data. I eventually ended up with something that would probably have run in Python (so the opposite of natural language prompts): still, the answers were wrong. [Then I found this post](http://post https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6681258-doing-math-in-the-playground) (so at least it wasn’t just this user’s error…)\nThis will improve over time but, for now, if you need to crunch some numbers, use Python or everyone’s first true love, Excel. 5 – The models can be biased. This is a complex and thorny issue, but there seem to be three significant issues concerning bias in the models. First, the models are trained on material written by humans, and a proportion of people are terrible. Moreover, being horrible excites the social media algorithms (thanks, Mark!). So if the model sees 1000 posts, of which 10% are shared and commented on much more than the remainder, the model may think these are the ‘best’ posts. But it could be something awful that’s generating a lot of heat. So while these models are improving, there is still an underlying problem that a proportion of people aren’t. Second, humans decide which data to feed into the models in the first place, so their biases (in this case, probably their preferences) influence what data the model sees. (As an aside, it will be fascinating to see how an AI from China addresses a problem compared to one from the US as the initial training data sets chosen by the research teams will likely be very different.)\nThird, societal biases are reflected in data which ends up in your models. In the case of the US, an AI model might reject mortgage applications submitted by minorities because, historically, that’s what banks did. A lot of work is underway to determine how to scrub bias from models, but the underlying problem seems to be human, not mathematical (again).\nLike several other issues mentioned here, this is something to remember when asking an AI for help. Careful prompt writing will be a big help, but you must also pay attention to the answer you get and sense-check it for bias. Unless you’re absolutely sure of how the model will perform, I wouldn’t leave an AI to publish text automatically at the moment. (Remember Tay.ai?)\nWelcome onboard\nDespite all of this, I’m excited about how we can use these tools to enhance what we do already. The opportunities that widely available AI tools offer are incredible and create endless possibilities. However, as always, nothing’s perfect, so we need to proceed with care, and I hope that some of these ideas help you use these tools effectively and avoid some potential pitfalls.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2023/01/27/some-ai-safeguards/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eNote that things are moving very quickly with AI and OpenAI. CatGTP in particular so some of the issues below may have been fixed by the time you read this. (Sadly, not the bits that involve humans.)\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"some-things-to-think-about-before-you-dive-into-gtp3\"\u003eSome things to think about before you dive into GTP3\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLike most of us, I love new toys. And like many others, I’ve been playing with OpenAIs tools since access opened up last year. With GTP4 scheduled for release soon and rumors that Google and Facebook both have pending AI releases, a lot will happen with AI in the near future.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Some AI Safeguards"},{"content":"(Read more about the origins of the risk metrics project here and here)\nThe Risk Metrics White Paper The risk metrics project has come into sharper focus over the last couple of weeks and I’m now comfortable with the foundation of the system and how to manage the data. I’m still a little unsure as to which metrics will be most useful but I have an initial set of 12 to start with and user feedback will be the best judge of what’s relevant.\nThe background and methodology are in the paper below which is still a draft as I have a couple of issues I want to sit on for a bit, particularly around how to best illustrate the trend vectors.\n(I appreciate that calling this a white paper is a bit pretentious but this format forces me to be clearer and more definitive about things than the blog.)\nIntroducing DCDR Research Much as I love messing around with metrics, I appreciate that this isn’t everyone’s cup of tea so filling this blog with statistical updates won’t make for great reading.\nSimilarly, I want the data to be easily accessible for users so I’ve re-worked the So What? site and brought it under the DCDR URL (there’s a link between the risk metrics and the risk assessment app that I’ll tackle in the new year so it makes sense to combine these). I’ll be updating the metrics and issuing analysis reports on that site, not via the blog.\nIf you are interested in risk metrics, please head over to DCDR Research to take a look at the reports and subscribe for updates.\nGet the reports here\nIf not, I hope you enjoy the white paper anyway.\n~Andrew\nA-Small-Data-Approach-to-Risk-Analysis-DRAFT-12_13_2022Download\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/12/14/a-small-data-approach-to-risk-metrics-risk-metrics-white-paper/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e(Read more about the origins of the risk metrics project \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/10/11/a-data-driven-approach-to-risk-management/\"\u003ehere\u003c/a\u003e and \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/11/08/risk-metrics-project-update-november-2022/\"\u003ehere\u003c/a\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"the-risk-metrics-white-paper\"\u003eThe Risk Metrics White Paper\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe risk metrics project has come into sharper focus over the last couple of weeks and I’m now comfortable with the foundation of the system and how to manage the data. I’m still a little unsure as to which metrics will be most useful but I have an initial set of 12 to start with and user feedback will be the best judge of what’s relevant.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Small Data Approach to Risk Metrics: Risk Metrics White Paper"},{"content":"I chatted with OpenAI’s Chatbot the other day and asked it some questions about risk management. The answers were clear, nuanced and thoughtful, supporting all the hype surrounding the tool.\nIt’s a text compiler so therefore not an analytical machine for the purposes of risk analysis – other tools of that kind will come on the scene eventually but I’m writing a paper as to why that’s a little ways off yet – but there are some uses I can see in the risk management space.\nFor example:\nSend it raw data to be turned into a report in a set format. Taking live data feeds and turning these into easy-to-read text. Aggregating multiple written reports into an executive summary. Creating lists of potential outcomes or contingencies based upon the inputs it receives. (This might be a stretch and will depend upon the source materials available for the model.) Whatever the case, ML and AI systems are becoming widely available and it will be exciting to see how these can be incorporated into our work.\nHowever, for now, please enjoy this short, unedited interview with the OpenAI ChatBot.\nHow would you describe non-financial risk management? Non-financial risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling risks that may not have a direct financial impact, but could still affect the organization in other ways. This can include risks related to operational, strategic, compliance, legal, and reputational issues. The goal of non-financial risk management is to help organizations mitigate the potential negative effects of these risks and protect the organization’s assets, reputation, and overall success. This typically involves implementing policies, procedures, and controls to prevent or mitigate risks, as well as regularly monitoring and reviewing the effectiveness of these measures.\nWhat are the shortfalls of current approaches to risk management? There are several potential shortfalls of current approaches to risk management. One common issue is that organizations may not have a comprehensive or systematic approach to identifying and assessing risks. This can result in risks being overlooked or underestimated, which can lead to inadequate controls or a lack of preparedness for potential issues. Another potential issue is that risk management practices may be reactive rather than proactive. This means that organizations may not take action until a risk has already materialized, rather than implementing measures to prevent or mitigate the risk before it occurs. Additionally, risk management practices may be siloed within an organization, with different departments or units managing different types of risks without coordinating their efforts. This can lead to gaps in coverage and a lack of consistent, enterprise-wide risk management.\nHow could AI help us improve our ability to understand risks Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve our ability to understand risks in several ways. First, AI algorithms can be used to analyze large amounts of data and identify patterns and trends that may not be immediately apparent to human analysts. This can help organizations better understand the likelihood and potential impact of different risks. Additionally, AI algorithms can be used to develop predictive models that can help organizations forecast the likelihood of future risks and take appropriate action to prevent or mitigate them. Finally, AI can be used to automate certain aspects of risk management, such as monitoring for potential risks, generating alerts when risks are identified, and providing recommendations for appropriate courses of action. This can help organizations more efficiently and effectively manage their risks.\nWhat do you think the downsides of using AI for risk management are? There are a few potential downsides to using AI for risk management. One potential issue is that AI algorithms may not be able to accurately capture the complexity of real-world risks. AI algorithms rely on the data that is fed into them, and if this data is incomplete or biased, the algorithms’ predictions and recommendations may not be accurate. Additionally, the use of AI in risk management may require significant upfront investments in technology and expertise, which may not be feasible for all organizations. Finally, the use of AI in risk management raises ethical concerns, such as the potential for bias and discrimination in the algorithms’ predictions and recommendations. It is important for organizations to carefully consider these issues and take appropriate steps to mitigate them when using AI for risk management.\nSo you’re not going to take my job quite yet. As a large language model trained by OpenAI, I am not able to perform any job or task in the physical world. My primary function is to assist users with generating human-like text based on the information and knowledge I was trained on. I do not have the ability to take on any job or task that requires physical actions or access to external information. I am simply a tool that can be used to generate natural-sounding responses to user questions and requests.\n(I suspect SkyNet would have given the same answer though…)\nImage of Bender (C) 20th Century Fox Television\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/12/13/chatting-with-an-ai-about-risk-management/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI chatted with OpenAI’s Chatbot the other day and asked it some questions about risk management. The answers were clear, nuanced and thoughtful, supporting all the hype surrounding the tool.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s a text compiler so therefore not an analytical machine for the purposes of risk analysis – other tools of that kind will come on the scene eventually but I’m writing a paper as to why that’s a little ways off yet – but there are some uses I can see in the risk management space.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Chatting with an AI about Risk Management"},{"content":"For most people, this will be a busy time of the year: end-of-year performance reviews, last-minute budget planning, holiday parties, or a final push to achieve their annual goals. All of this adds up to a very busy time when all you want to do is take a break. However, there’s one other thing I’m going to suggest you squeeze in before you start next year’s ERM program.\nAn end-of-year review This review will neatly tie up everything you did over the past year and get you ready for the next. And best of all, it’s something you can do in an afternoon.\nThe time you dedicate to this review will pay dividends in the long run so give yourself until mid-January to get this done but make sure you have wrapped up one year’s program before you move on to the next. Plus, rather than seeing this as the end of this year’s activity, this is actually the start of next year’s program and you are actually going to be ahead of the game.\nWhy conduct a review? Firstly, let’s say what this isn’t.\nThis isn’t a deep dive into the ERM project plan or an update to the risk assessment. These should all be activities that are part of the normal monthly or quarterly cycle.\nInstead, this review is a chance to get an overall sense of the health of the program before you move on. The review will help you get a sense of what’s been done, what needs to be done and what challenges you need to keep in mind over the next year.\nThis is a very high-level review and, unlike a lot of risk management activity, this isn’t the time to be the details guy or gal for a couple of reasons.\nFirstly, you will get sucked into the weeds which will keep you from seeing the big picture. Secondly, you don’t have the time right now for a detailed review. Staying at a high level stops you from trying to rush something that needs a lot of time. So avoid the details for a moment and stick to a high-level review. To help with this, I put together the ‘3x3x3’ approach which is a great way of keeping your review focussed.\n3x3x3 The 3x3x3 idea is a very simple way to approach the review. You are going to consider three areas, identify three key points for each and do this in three hours. By the end of the review you will have:\nHighlighted three achievements from this year that have helped develop the organization’s ERM maturity Confirmed three goals for next year’s ERM program Identified three challenges or issues that need to be monitored Three areas, three key points in three hours. Easy.\nThe Review There are five simple steps in the review. These help you understand where you are, where you want to go and what might stand in your way.\nStep 1 – Review the health of the ERM program Step 2 – Consider what’s been achieved in the last year and the lessons learned Step 3 – Review the organization’s objectives and identify your ERM goals Step 4 – Think about what might change what ’normal’ looks like in the next year Step 5 – Summarize your findings and lay out your ‘three threes’ If you want to jump in right away, there’s a worksheet here to get you started. The Review in Detail Step 1 – Review the Health of the ERM System This is a great time to assess the health of your ERM program to act as a baseline for everything else. This review establishes where the ERM program is ‘today’ which will help you identify the progress you have made (step 2) and help identify gaps to fill in the next year (step 3).\nRemember, we are only interested in a very high-level review so something like the eleven principles detailed in ISO 31000 is a good place to start.\nStep 2 – Consider what’s been Achieved in the Last Year and the Key Lessons Learned Use the results of step 1 to identify what you achieved this year. If this isn’t your first review, also use last year’s review as a benchmark for comparison. Even if your ERM program is relatively new, you should still identify, record and celebrate your achievements. Remember, ERM is an ongoing process so the project never really ends but don’t allow the never-ending to-do list to mask your achievements.\nAcknowledging progress helps you track how things are developing but is also important for morale (and sanity) purposes. Remember that showing progress and the benefits of formal risk management is also an essential step to embed an ERM system in your organization.\nMake sure you also identify any key lessons learned from these achievements along with any barriers to success that you have encountered. This will help you reinforce the positives next year and increase your chances of success.\nHaving looked back, it’s now time to look forward.\nStep 3 – Review the Organization’s Objectives and your ERM Goals Before you look at your ERM goals, ensure that you review the organization’s strategic objectives for the next year. This will ensure that you remain aligned with the organization and keep these objectives in mind while you develop your ERM goals.\nWhile goal setting, look at the progress that you have made this year. Was there sufficient progress to allow you to move onto these goals? Do any of the lessons learned apply to next year’s goals? Might your goals need to be adjusted in light of upcoming events (step 4)?\nGoals should stretch you and the risk management team but goals also need to be achievable and realistic. Don’t set yourself and your team unrealistic targets for the next year but ensure that your goals help support the organization’s overall objectives.\n(There’s a useful article on S.M.A.R.T. goal setting with links to other resources here.)\nStep 4 – Think about what could Change what ’Normal’ looks like Next Year Ok, now it’s time to get out your crystal ball and start forecasting the future…\nDon’t worry, we aren’t trying to predict the future. We are just trying to identify some of the ‘known knowns’ and ‘known unknowns’ that could cause issues in the next year.\nKnown Knowns The dates of many events such as team vacations, an office relocation or corporate restructuring will be known in advance. These are ‘known knowns’. Importantly, the likely effects will also be known in advance so although these events can disrupt your program, you just need to plan for these in advance.\nKnown Unknowns There are also events where the timing is known in advance but the effects are unknown. These are ‘known unknowns’. Elections, changes to senior leadership or the resolution of a court case all may be on a timetable that is known well in advance but the outcomes are unknown. Be prepared for the results of these events to have an effect on your activities and plan accordingly. Schedule strategy and plan reviews for after the outcome of these events and delay any major strategic decisions until the effects are clear.\nCategorize these events as macro, organizational or personal / team and put together a simple calendar. Again, you aren’t doing any detailed planning but this gives you a sense of what you should be looking out for in the next year and helps schedule activity around periods of disruption.\nHere’s a simple example of a calendar broken down into quarters:\nAt a glance, this immediately shows us that the risk management team will be busy in Q1 helping manage the ERM elements of the annual report. In Q2, the Southern Africa and European teams will be busy or unavailable and there will be uncertainty about new financial regulations and compliance. You know it’s always difficult to tie down US team members in late Q4 plus the election adds some more uncertainty around this period. However, Q2 looks like a good time to schedule big pieces of work and there is also a decent amount of time to respond to any regulatory changes following their release in late August.\nNow you have a neat, short summary of what the year ahead looks like to help with planning, scheduling and horizon scanning.\nNow that we have gathered all of our information, it’s time to wrap everything up in the final step.\nStep 5 – Summarize your Findings and Lay out your ‘Three Threes’ Now, consolidate everything you did in steps 1 – 4 and write out your ‘three threes’. As a reminder, these are:\nThree achievements from this year that have helped develop the organization’s ERM maturity Three goals for next year’s ERM program Three challenges or issues that need to be monitored This gives you a simple record of where you were, what you did and where you are going, with the review of the ERM system acting as a baseline for reference. This will give you a good sense of the state of the ERM program at year’s end and what the next 12 months should look like.\nWhen you’re ready, get the worksheet here. Getting it Done This review shouldn’t take more than a morning or afternoon but still, it’s a busy time of year. However, you don’t have to do all of this in one session. For example:\nIf you are a solo risk manager, set aside 20 minutes each day to tackle steps 1 – 4. At the end of the week, take an hour to review everything and complete step 5 If you have a team, give each team member one item to work on in their own time. Bring everyone together as a team for 90 minutes where you spend the first hour reviewing steps 1 – 4 and use the last half hour to complete step 5 together. Whatever your situation, I’m sure you can find three hours by the middle of January to get this done. Even if you can’t take on the review today, schedule some time in January right now to make sure this doesn’t slip your mind.\nRemember that the time you invest wrapping up this year will pay dividends when you start work on next year’s program.\nThat’s it! So that’s the 3x3x3 model. Now you have:\nA summary of the results of the system review (step 1) Three achievements from this year that have helped develop the organization’s ERM maturity (step 2) Three goals for next year’s ERM program (step 3) Three challenges or issues that need to be monitored (Step 4) It shouldn’t take more than three hours. Book in the time to do this by the middle of January and you will have a solid start for next year’s program.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/12/02/your-end-of-year-risk-management-review-2/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eFor most people, this will be a busy time of the year: end-of-year performance reviews, last-minute budget planning, holiday parties, or a final push to achieve their annual goals. All of this adds up to a very busy time when all you want to do is take a break. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, there’s one other thing I’m going to suggest you squeeze in before you start next year’s ERM program.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"an-end-of-year-review\"\u003eAn end-of-year review\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis review will neatly tie up everything you did over the past year and get you ready for the next.  And best of all, it’s something you can do in an afternoon.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Why (and How) You Should Conduct an End of Year Risk Management Review"},{"content":"It’s no secret that I love standards (I even confessed to this in a previous blog post).\nHowever, there’s a problem: as soon as you introduce a standard, you’re in danger of turning things into a compliance exercise. Initially, that might not sound so terrible. If you’re compliant with a risk management standard, you’ll be managing your risks properly, right?\nUnfortunately not.\nBecause compliance, or anything else that can be reduced to a ‘check the box exercise,’ very quickly moves the focus from outputs to inputs. So, as long as you have written the procedure, conducted the assessment, and established a governance board, you’ve complied with the requirement set out in the standard. But that doesn’t mean that the procedure is fit for purpose, that the assessment effectively evaluated the risks, or that there’s effective governance in place. It just means you’ve checked off these requirements in the standard.\nUnfortunately, the inputs don’t produce the desired output meaning the organization complies with the standard but hasn’t achieved the improvement they were looking for.\nConversely, another firm could have an effective risk management system in place even though it’s not fully compliant with the requirements of ISO 31000. Their system produces the desired outcome even though it doesn’t meet the standard’s exact requirements.\nFocusing on the Details Obscures the Intent But for many, compliance means getting sucked into the weeds and losing sight of the strategic objective You can see this in many of the risk management discussions on LinkedIn. Everyone’s in a lather about the minutiae of the standard or arguing about whether or not risk should be two or three factors (three, obviously). In other words, they’re missing. the wood for the trees.\nThese discussions have relevance, and there are times when clarification of a rule or improvement of a process is valuable. But my concern increases when the focus is only on the compliance activity, not managing risk.\nFrom a risk management perspective, one way around this is to remember the ISO definition of risk as ‘the effect of uncertainty on objectives’. The whole endeavor is focused on objectives and outcomes, not processes.\nSo, before you conduct any compliance exercise, I’d always recommend starting from first principles: ask, ‘what effect is this program meant to achieve?’ Keeping this top-level outcome in mind will ensure that your compliance work gets you to that destination – effectively managing your risks – and doesn’t just become a check-the-box exercise.\nPhoto by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/11/28/risk-management-isnt-just-about-compliance/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIt’s no secret that I love standards (\u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/01/15/i-love-and-hate-standards-you-should-too/\"\u003eI even confessed to this in a previous blog post\u003c/a\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, there’s a problem: as soon as you introduce a standard, you’re in danger of turning things into a compliance exercise. Initially, that might not sound so terrible. If you’re compliant with a risk management standard, you’ll be managing your risks properly, right?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately not.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBecause compliance, or anything else that can be reduced to a ‘check the box exercise,’ very quickly moves the focus from outputs to inputs. So, as long as you have written the procedure, conducted the assessment, and established a governance board, you’ve complied with the requirement set out in the standard. But that doesn’t mean that the procedure is fit for purpose, that the assessment effectively evaluated the risks, or that there’s effective governance in place. It just means you’ve checked off these requirements in the standard.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk Management Isn’t Just About Compliance"},{"content":"*The Signal and The Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t by Nate Silver *is the 2012 best-seller from the then New York Times columnist who now runs the FiveThirtyEight election analysis and prediction site in the US. TL;DR – This is a great read that explains why and how you need to mix statistics and experience in your predictions and decision-making. It can feel a little technical and heavy on the math at first glance, but Silver explains everything clearly, making it an easy read, given the subject matter.\nWho is Nate Silver? From his Amazon bio: “Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in New York.” Prediction versus forecast A vital distinction Silver makes in the book, and one we should pay more attention to as risk managers, is between predictions and forecasts. In the chapter on earthquakes, Silver notes the US Geological Survey (USGS) differentiates between the two:\nA prediction is a definitive and specific statement about when an earthquake will strike: a major earthquake will hit Kyoto, Japan, on June 28. A forecast is a probabilistic statement usually over a long period of time: there is a 60% chance of an earthquake in Southern California over the next 30 years.\nBeing clear on these distinctions will stand us in good stead as we discuss risks because it is too easy to mistake an evaluation of a threat (which would be a forecast) for a prediction. This is why the term ‘a* 100-year storm*‘ causes confusion: it’s too easy for people to think that we are counting down to some point 100 years in the future.\nWe’ll return to the importance of probabilistic data and prior histories shortly when we discuss the section on Bayes’ Theorem, but making this distinction between predictions and forecasts is essential.\nFundamental errors we make A large proportion of the book explains how and why we get predictions wrong. Silver uses a range of case studies to show how biases, misunderstandings, ignorance, and even lousy math can cause us to be wildly inaccurate. The explanations of biases and heuristics are brief and assume that you have some understanding of how these affect decision-making already. (For a deeper dive into how we think about risk and make decisions, I’d recommend Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman and the work of Gary Klein.)\nWhere the book really shines, in my opinion, is how Silver tackles the statistical aspects of decision-making which is unsurprising as this is his area of real expertise both professionally (as the founder of FiveThirtyEight election prediction site) and personally (as a top-tier poker player and baseball stats nerd). Importantly, you don’t need to be a maths whiz to keep up with his explanations as he skates over the top of a complex field. And it’s worth persevering as there are some examples he uses, which are situations we might all find ourselves confronted with at work. His example of how the banks miscalculated the risks associated with CDOs in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis is equally clear and terrifying. (*Collateralized debt obligations that pooled vast numbers of subprime mortgages.) The pros and cons of data This kind of example reflects another broad trend in the book: how data is equally helpful and dangerous in precision and forecasting. Well-curated, thoughtfully contextualized data will provide the signals we need to make more accurate predictions. Conversely, poorly-complied or incomplete data sets will be useless or, worst of all, lead us in the wrong direction. Sometimes, these errors are made despite the best intentions, but data can also be cherry-picked to support an existing narrative.\nMaking matters even more complicated is that the signal is often buried in the noise, which grows exponentially as societies and businesses become more complex. Worst of all, Silver observes that the critical signs are often only noticeable in retrospect as this can be drowned out by other signals\nGet your copy on Amazon*\nBayesian Predictions If you’re not a fan of math(s) the section on Bayes’ theorem might be something you’d prefer to skip or at least skim quickly. Don’t do that.\nI’ve heard Bayes’s theorem mentioned in all kinds of situations without any attempt to explain it and, when I looked it up online, the explanations were bewildering and I was none the wiser. Thankfully, that’s not what happens here. Silver explains the underlying philosophy and the mathematical framework simply and understandably. If you recall, we noted earlier that probabilistic data is helpful for forecasting but with Bayes’s theorem, we also see how it affects predictions. In short, the frequency of prior events has a powerful influence on the probability that a similar event will occur under similar conditions. That means that something where the split between two options is 50/50, may be significantly skewed in one direction based on precedent. Equally, even a high likelihood of an outcome would be considerably less if the historical record is low.\nUnderstanding this methodology is essential for decision-makers who use mathematical models or those of us who have to interpret the forecasts we’re hearing. Similar to the CDO example above, understanding the underlying math is essential to determining the quality of the result so you can use the data appropriately.\nAgain, even if you aren’t a ‘fan’ of math, spend some time in this section and enjoy a clear, simple explanation of something that, up until now, has never been explained clearly (to me, anyway).\n(As an aside, this is another section of the book where I want to spend more time thinking about the simple application of this model in risk assessments and analysis.\nThe need to merge statistics and emotions Silver’s message is that we need to merge rigorous statistical analysis with emotional insight, and he pulls this off well using some excellent examples. From how baseball teams combine statistical models with the observations of talent scouts, to how sports bettors use Bayesian models of a team’s performance just as much as they scour the players’ social media accounts, he shows how you can merge these two approaches effectively. And while this isn’t necessarily novel, he makes a strong case for not replying on one system alone, even in instances where being 100% data- or instinct-driven would seem the best approach.\nHe also explains how, when making predictions for US political races, her couples the statistical model with the insights he gains from interviewing candidates and observing their behavior.\nGetting this balance between objective data and subjective analysis is the key to making successful predictions but, in the end, there is no secret formula. Silver admits the difficulties in getting this balance right but does note that the quality of your predictions can improve over time if you record and review your predictions regularly. This helps you see where the signals and analysis were pointing you in the right direction and where you misinterpreted things, allowing you to correct your analysis in the future. Notably, he reminds us that a prediction can still be ‘good’, even if the predicted event doesn’t occur. After all, a 70% chance of something happening still means there’s also a 30% chance it won’t.\n(As an aside, there may be some way to determine the right mix of objective / subjective based on the situation. Something more objective and statistically ‘clean’, say how often aircraft crash, could benefit from being more data-heavy. In contrast, voting patterns which are heavily influenced by our emotions would be better predicted with a higher proportion of subjective weighing. This is just an initial thought and I need to do more research and thinking about how to strike this balance.)\nOverall. For all of its depth, The Signal and The Noise is a relatively easy read and moves fairly quickly with well-told stories and interesting anecdotes. I’m not a fan of books that are too story-heavy, and Silver gets the mix about right here as the stories support and illustrate the theories instead of being loosely associated. I enjoyed his simplification of the mathematical aspects of making bets and playing poker, as I was completely ignorant of both.\nNo doubt, there are parts that are not absolutely correct technically, and a lot of nuance will have had to be jettisoned, but that is the price of simplification of which (I am obviously a proponent).\nThe ending is fairly abrupt, and the conclusion doesn’t wrap up the book’s big ideas as I had expected, so if you were hoping to get a good sense of the book from the last 20-pages, you’d be disappointed. And, as the book is almost a decade old, some comments on the likelihood of a global pandemic or the degree of political polarization in the US seem almost quaint. Nevertheless, it’s an excellent read for any risk manager or decision-maker who wants to see how to use both data and emotions when making predictions. Quants will get an insight into how our brains process decisions, while social scientists will better appreciate how to use and interpret data effectively. Ready to drive in? Get your copy from Amazon here\nWant more book reviews and recommendations? See my recommended reading list and lots more review here ?\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/11/21/the-signal-and-the-noise-book-review/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*The Signal and The Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t by Nate Silver *is the 2012 best-seller from the then New York Times columnist who now runs the FiveThirtyEight election analysis and prediction site in the US. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTL;DR – This is a great read that explains why and how you need to mix statistics and experience in your predictions and decision-making. It can feel a little technical and heavy on the math at first glance, but Silver explains everything clearly, making it an easy read, given the subject matter.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Signal and The Noise – Book Review"},{"content":"Something that’s very hard to do as a consultant is to say,* ‘I don’t know,’ *or confess that you don’t understand something. But you’ve got to overcome any discomfort and learn how to do this because it’s critical that you’re honest about your knowledge gaps if you genuinely want to understand an organization or situation.\nBut the problem is that this is hard to do when you’ve positioned yourself as an expert, and someone’s brought you in as a problem solver. So you’ll feel self-conscious if one of the first things the client hears you say is, ‘I don’t understand that. Please explain’.\nThis is particularly hard when you’re just starting out but remember, you’re not saying that you don’t understand your role or what you do. You’re still a subject matter expert in your field. But you’re not an expert in that organization or industry, and you need to understand it thoroughly if you’re going to conduct an assessment or solve a problem.\nSo how do you do that?\nFirst, you have to be humble and honest: you have to admit that you don’t understand something, which starts by admitting this to yourself. Second, you need to work up your courage and be bold enough to say, ‘I don’t understand, please explain that to me‘. That doesn’t have to be in a group setting: you might pull someone aside after a meeting instead. Third, you need to listen to the explanation you’re getting and really pay attention. That’s because the thing being explained to you is probably complicated or opaque – otherwise, you’d understand it already or could have worked it out from the content. Instead, there’s something complex or nuanced that you need to learn pretty quickly. Fourth and finally, you have to put your ego aside as you might have to ask them to explain the thing again: it might not be something you get the first time. However, if you can put aside your ego and anxiety, not only will you get the information you need for your assessment or project, but you’ll also be able to take advantage of the expertise someone is sharing with you. In my experience, people are always incredibly generous with their time and knowledge, and that’s how you’ll learn about all kinds of highly technical and interesting things.\nBut keep the overall objective in sight – to understand the organization -and never try to fake it. Otherwise, you’re going to base your solution on a poorly understood situation, which will get you into hot water.\nSo be humble, figure out how you’ll say it, but don’t be afraid to say *‘I don’t understand, can you explain that to me?’ *because you’re worried it will make you seem dumb or lacking in expertise. In fact, most people will respect you even more for having the courage to ask something that they themselves may be afraid to.\nWant more tips on consulting or risk assessment? Take a look at my books\nPhoto by Taylor Flowe on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/11/14/the-question-you-cant-be-afraid-to-ask/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eSomething that’s very hard to do as a consultant is to say,* ‘I don’t know,’ *or confess that you don’t understand something. But you’ve got to overcome any discomfort and learn how to do this because it’s critical that you’re honest about your knowledge gaps if you genuinely want to understand an organization or situation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut the problem is that this is hard to do when you’ve positioned yourself as an expert, and someone’s brought you in as a problem solver. So you’ll feel self-conscious if one of the first things the client hears you say is, ‘\u003cem\u003eI don’t understand that. Please explain’\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Question You Can’t be Afraid to Ask"},{"content":"This post is an update on the risk metrics project I described a few weeks ago. You can read about the origin of the project and the intent here.\nIf you recall, the underlying metrics for the project had to meet the following criteria:\nBroad, not narrow (meaning the metric has widespread effects) Publicly available Easily understandable Updated frequently Commonly used Unfortunately, for a lot of the data I looked at, I could get four out of five criteria but often one remained out of reach. Usually, this was frequency as some macro-indicators are published in annual reports, not weekly or monthly. However, for a macro trend such as literacy rates, a year-on-year measurement is sufficient, which means that the final criteria could read regular or frequent.\nThis newfound freedom helped me include several indicators that I thought would be useful, and I’ve compiled these below with some explanations.\nAnd as a quick aside, thanks to those of you who voted for the usefulness of the criteria. And if you didn’t but want to add your say, you can vote here.\nThere are 20 different measurements in the table below, which include my rough notes on how these might be applied. There is some overlap here, and I suspect some will track each other closely, meaning we can drop the less effective metric. (That might mean the one that’s less widely available or updated less frequently.) Something that might seem like an omission is that Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) measures aren’t included here as I can’t work out if this is one metric or a dozen. Moreover, DEI might not be tracked or available for many locations meaning that these would fail the ‘commonly used’ criteria above. Equality legislation may be a proxy, but the level of compliance would be the better measure. All of this is a knowledge gap of mine so I’ll keep working on that to see what kind of a meaningful measurement I can find.\nNevertheless, that’s the initial 20 criteria that I’m going to start compiling and standardizing. I’ll be sharing updates on these over the next few months along with ideas of how you might want to use these in your own risk assessments.\nI’d love to hear your comments on the criteria above and you can vote for how useful each element would be here.\nNote that this update is from November 2022, so there may have been adjustments to the list since publication. You can see all updates to the project under the Risk Metrics section here.\nPhoto by Crissy Jarvis on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/11/08/risk-metrics-project-update-november-2022/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThis post is an update on the risk metrics project I described a few weeks ago. \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/10/11/a-data-driven-approach-to-risk-management/\"\u003eYou can read about the origin of the project and the intent here.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIf you recall, the underlying metrics for the project had to meet the following criteria:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBroad, not narrow (meaning the metric has widespread effects)\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ePublicly available\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eEasily understandable\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eUpdated frequently\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eCommonly used\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately, for a lot of the data I looked at, I could get four out of five criteria but often one remained out of reach. Usually, this was frequency as some macro-indicators are published in annual reports, not weekly or monthly. However, for a macro trend such as literacy rates, a year-on-year measurement is sufficient, which means that the final criteria could read regular or frequent.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk Metrics Project Update – November 2022"},{"content":"A problem I’ve observed is that we often need to differentiate more clearly between what we need to do and how we will do it. This confusion makes us think that a problem’s been solved when, in fact, all we’ve done is identify the effect we want to achieve, not how we’re going to get there. The roadmap for how to make that happen is missing.\nImagine a business that’s trying to cut its costs because its cash flow is out of balance. Discussions might end with decisions to trim expenses or reduce headcount, which are reasonable ways to cut costs significantly. Everyone leaves the meeting thinking the problem’s been solved. However, they still need to determine what costs can be cut without compromising operations. How to manage layoffs and the effect these will have on the business? They will have identified the ‘what’, but not the ‘how’.\nSo when you find yourself in these situations, make sure the discussions don’t stop too early. After you identify the effect you want to achieve – the what – you need to decide how you will get there. You can do this in a different meeting: you may even need to stand up a whole project team and dedicate significant resources to solving big problems, even when your goal is clear.\nJust make sure you don’t walk away thinking that the job’s done just because you’ve identified what you need to do.\nInstead, work through the details of how you’ll make the changes you’ve decided upon. That way, you won’t find yourselves adrift, thinking that a problem’s been solved when you’re only halfway done.\nImage Photo by Hal Gatewood on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/11/01/how-vs-what-dont-stop-your-planning-too-early/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eA problem I’ve observed is that we often need to differentiate more clearly between what we need to do and how we will do it. This confusion makes us think that a problem’s been solved when, in fact, all we’ve done is identify the effect we want to achieve, not how we’re going to get there. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe roadmap for how to make that happen is missing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eImagine a business that’s trying to cut its costs because its cash flow is out of balance. Discussions might end with decisions to trim expenses or reduce headcount, which are reasonable ways to cut costs significantly. Everyone leaves the meeting thinking the problem’s been solved.\nHowever, they still need to determine what costs can be cut without compromising operations. How to manage layoffs and the effect these will have on the business? They will have identified the ‘what’, but not the ‘how’.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How vs. What: Don’t stop your planning too early"},{"content":"My risk management master’s course had a heavy reading list as you’d expect but a lot of these set texts – and the course material itself – was pretty thick and not much fun. However, I found a few books that I used alongside the course work which helped summarize a lot of the technical, academic stuff and, frankly, made it less dull. I wanted to share a few of these with you beginning with a book about when and how things go wrong.\nFlirting with Disaster The central premise of Flirting with Disaster is that most accidents are not accidental and that the organization and other observers were aware of the problems which led to the accident well in advance. However, for a number of complicated reasons in the lead-up to and in the early stages of the accident, preventative steps were not taken. The book, published in 2008, lays out a detailed explanation for this illogical behavior – if we know things are going to end badly, why don’t we do something? – through a mix of clear explanations of the theories alongside detailed case studies.\nFlirting with Disaster – Why Accidents are Rarely Accidental by Marc Gerstein with Michael Ellsberg (on Amazon here*)\nCase studies done right Gerstein, who among other things was a Visiting Scholar at MIT’s Sloan School of Business, uses detailed, rigorous, fact-filled reviews of events ranging from the two NASA Shuttle disasters to the Chornobyl meltdown as well as more unexpected examples such as how the original settlers of Easter Island disappeared. These are tight, well research, and neatly summarized accounts of events that are still rich in detail. Moreover, in addition to their rigor and detail, like any good historical documentary, these case-studies are told in a way that you are still on the edge of your seat waiting to find out how things will end: despite the fact that you already know the outcome. But in addition to the enjoyment of reading such well-written accounts, the case studies provide concrete examples of the theories in practice in addition to countless lessons and takeaways. These alone make the book worth recommending but there are some specific reasons I think that this is a great read for risk managers in particular.\nWhy should a risk management read this? I think that there are three main reasons a risk manager would find Flirting with Disaster useful. (At least, this is why I have found it useful.)\nClear explanations The book explains a lot of otherwise dry and abstract academic theory in a way that is easy to understand. I really believe that a basic understanding of the theories behind people’s attitudes towards risk are vital to be an effective risk manager. But I also realize that not everyone wants to read Paul Slovic’s original papers on risk perception or something from 1932 about disaster and psychology. (Weird, I know. ) Flirting with Disaster does a good job of boiling down these key concepts in an easy to understand way. Moreover, these theories are explained with…\nDetailed lessons I have explained how useful the book is for understanding academic theories but there are a lot of practical lessons here too. The real value of these case studies as opportunities to learn and avoid the same mistakes is immense. As Gerstein sums it up towards the end of the book [my emphasis].\nOne of the guilty secrets of my forty years of organizations consulting is that the most useful advice has been drawn from the classic ideas, not from freshly minted theories. That doesn’t mean that there is no value in new ideas: it’s simply that the accumulated value of the tried and true is far, far greater than that contained in many trendy articles best-sellers, and consulting sales pitches. Gerstein, Flirting with Disaster p 283\nSadly, chapter six, titled ‘The Vioxx Disaster and BP: the Seduction of Profits‘, unknowingly provides an example of what happens when we fail to learn from the past. Note that this book was published in 2008, two years before the Macondo well blowout and the loss of the Deepwater Horizon with her 11 crew. Yet here, Gerstein is exploring another BP incident, the Texas City refinery fire of 2005 where 15 died and over 150 were injured. So there were clear lessons from Texas City for BP to learn from their investigations, the public investigation and books like this. Yet five years later, with many of those lessons apparently unlearned, we had the loss of 11 other lives and biggest oil spill in US history. So while there is no guarantee that the outcome will be the same, previous, similar events are a very good indicator of the end result allowing you to put contingencies into action. Moreover, these case studies often tell you the kind of mitigation which didn’t work which in itself is very valuable. The lessons learned from these case studies is therfore immensely valuable for us as risk managers as a way to learn how to successfully address similar situations that we may face in the future. (Of course, this assumes that you put these lessons into action.)\nPractical guidance Finally, in addition to the scenario-specific takeaways from the case studies, the book provides many more general lessons that can be applied in a range of circumstances. For example, towards the end in a chapter titled ‘What have we Learned?’, Gerstein provides four ‘rules to live by‘:\nUnderstand the risks you face. Avoid being in denial. Pay attention to weak signals and early warnings. Don’t subordinate the chance to avoid catastrophe to other considerations. These are just four of the many valuable lessons scattered throughout the book. (The next chapter is simply called ‘Advice for Leaders‘). All are worth highlighting and keeping in mind as a risk manager.\nSummary This was one of the first non-textbooks I read when I started studying risk management formally and I have returned to it many times over the past 10+ years for the reasons I explained above. Reading it a decade later, and sometimes dozens or even hundreds of years after the examples, what stands out is that the lessons learned and guidance Gerstein and Ellsberg provide hold up. I think that this is because this is really an academic text disguised as a non-technical book. The underlying research and analysis are thorough yet easy to follow and digest. Coupled with Gerstein’s aversion to fads and a trust of the ‘classics’, the book holds up well. Sadly, events since publication show that despite the availability of lessons to learn from, we are often immune to doing the right thing. That more than anything is a good reason to find a copy and read this to avoid flirting with your own disasters.\nWant your own copy? Use the image or link below to find this on Amazon*\nFlirting with Disaster on Amazon*\nThanks for reading this and I hope you found it useful but let me know. Leave a comment below to tell me what you think. And if you liked it, consider sharing this with someone else.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/10/24/flirting-with-disaster-a-review-2/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eMy risk management master’s course had a heavy reading list as you’d expect but a lot of these set texts – and the course material itself – was pretty thick and not much fun.  However, I found a few books that I used alongside the course work which helped summarize a lot of the technical, academic stuff and, frankly, made it less dull.  I wanted to share a few of these with you beginning with a book about when and how things go wrong.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Flirting with Disaster – a Book Review"},{"content":"Full disclosure: this is me working through an idea in public but, if you’ve been reading my stuff for a while, you’ll know that the blog and email are often me thinking out loud, trying out ideas to see what sticks. In this case, it’s not a new idea but, instead, a rather old one. A 20-year-old one…\nData-Driven Risk Management How this came about isn’t important, but since my first risk assessment, I’ve felt that there’s a need for some kind of simple math to underpin things and help with consistency. Eventually, that became the kind of thing you’ll have seen in the metrics and gradings work here.\nHowever, there was another thing on my mind: how can we feed data into our assessments to 1) remove objectivity and 2) speed up the process? So, instead of having to assess each threat manually (calculating its likelihood and severity), wouldn’t it be better if we could track a few metrics which would give us the same result without the friction of evaluating each element individually? And wouldn’t that also remove many of the biases and inaccuracies we get when humans assess things?\nEven more importantly, if you identified the key metrics or events that show things changing, you’d have a set of triggers to look out for. These could be a series of smaller events that combine to bring about a change or one big event that changes everything.\nThis is what my idea looked like in 2005.\nSome of the original work on event tracking and triggers from 2005\nGreat Idea, One Small Problem However, there’s one problem.\nKnowing what to track.\nBecause each country, business, and organization is unique, each is affected by different factors. And even when the same factors are relevant, the degree to which these affect the organization will change.\nSo this is a hard problem which is why I’m still working on it 20 years after I started.\nBut it’s also a solvable problem. Control Risks does a version of this for country risk, and firms like Palantir use big data sets and machine learning to assess risk and help with decision-making. Investors and fund managers do this kind of thing all the time.\nHowever, these systems are too complex for individuals and small organizations to apply, extremely expensive, or both.\nMoreover, I don’t think big is always better because, as we can see from catastrophic events like the great recession of 2008, having all the data is useless unless you are honest about what it means. In fact, a lot of research suggests that having more data makes your evaluations less accurate.\nRisk Metrics – The KISS Version So the experiment is this: to find a set of metrics to track to help with risk evaluations and decision-making with the caveats that the metrics are:\nBroad, not narrow (meaning the metric has widespread effects) Publicly available Easily understandable Updated frequently Commonly used So, GDP or the price of a barrel of oil meet this definition, whereas a hedge fund’s pay scales would not.\nOnce we have this set of metrics, the next step is to ask ‘so what?’ in relation to the general effects this element has on businesses and organizations. However, it’s important to look at first- and second-order effects to have real value. For example, the price of oil has a direct effect on transportation and heating costs, but it also impacts countries that provide file subsidies: rising costs squeeze budgets, whereas lower costs produce a financial surplus.\nFinally, you then work out what ‘normal’ looks like. This can be based on historical values for that metric but also on what the operating tolerance is. Again, for the oil price example, we have years of data and can use two or three-year averages to get a sense of normal. We could also see what normal, day-day fluctuations look like to give us a +/- percentage band for our normal value.\nSo in combination, what we’re looking for is a group of metrics we can track, establishing their normal value, and determining how changes to these values could affect our organization or whatever entity we’re thinking about. Then we can put them to work as either raw data for risk assessments or as a set of triggers we track to identify potential changes in a situation.\nUsing Data For Risk Assessments Using metrics for assessments requires a bit of pre-work as you need to put the data into a format similar to the grading system you use for your risk assessment. You can do this by either using the spread of the data or applying the data to a likelihood/severity matrix.\nUsing a Data Spread\nEstablish the spread of what the values could be and then correlate these with an assessment valuation. For example, from very low to extreme (very high). You could do this by taking historical highs and lows and basing your valuation scale on these. Calculate the difference between the highest and lowest value and divide this by three. Then, starting with the lowest historical value:\nAnything below this would be classed as very low. The historic low value plus 1/3 gives you the spread for the low band. The top of the low band plus 1/3 then gives you the spread of the moderate band. The top of the moderate band plus 1/3 gives you the high band spread. The historical high or above gives you the severe band. (Note that both the top and bottom-most values are open-ended here.)\nExample of a rating system based on a set of metrics\nEstablishing these bands and thresholds is probably the most complex part of the whole thing, and there is a lot involved in getting this right, so the 1/3 rule example is a very crude start (pun intended).\nUsing a Likelihood / Impact Matrix\nAlternately, where you have data for likelihood and impact, say for hurricanes, you can apply this data to a matrix to get a threat description. You will have to establish standard definitions for each grade for Likelihood / Impact, but once you have these definitions, you can work through each data point to develop a rating.\nIt’s important to avoid calculating the impact on your business or organization here. Instead, you are assessing the potential impact the event could generally have. For example, the data may show a moderate chance of a hurricane, but any storm would be of significant magnitude meaning you would assess the threat from hurricanes as HIGH, which would apply to anything in the area affected. When you conduct your assessment, you use this HIGH threat value but calculate the impact on your organization specifically, taking into account your vulnerabilities and mitigation measures.\nEstablishing a threat rating using an impact likelihood matrix\nUsing the Metrics As triggers\nUsing data as triggers is relatively straightforward as you base these on the baseline or normal levels you calculated. Then you can establish severity bands above and below your normal operating band. These bands correspond to different degrees of change from normal, say small, moderate, or extreme. The speed and magnitude of the change correspond to different decision points or actions. So you may end up with statements along the lines of: ‘if we see metric alpha hit 87,000, then we start planning for contingency y. But if it goes over 99,000, we implement contingency z immediately.’\n(There’s a video here showing how you can use triggers and decision points for contingency planning.)\nThe Big Question Is… But what are the metrics?\nThat’s where I’ve gotten wrapped around the axle before but I’ve identified around 20 metrics so far. I’m going to investigate these in more detail over the next few months and I’ll look at how useful the data is once I’ve applied it to a model I’m building.\nIf you want to see the working list and vote on what’s important to you, there’s a list here\nAs I go, I’ll share the results in the blog and will open up the model as I get that into shape. I’ll also give you some ideas of how to use any data set that seems to have very wide application and broad effects as these might be worth tracking yourself. I will also sketch out some of the first and second-order effects of changes to these key (essential? macro?) metrics to help you apply these to your decision-making.\n—–\nAs I said, this is a big topic I’ve been working on for a long time, although pretty intermittently. It’s also a challenging problem and one that has seen off better people than me. However, I think that a simple model will help speed up, simplify and remove the subjectivity from risk assessments. In turn, that will help improve the speed and quality of our decision-making so, overall, I think this is still a project worth pursuing.\nStay tuned! More metrics to follow!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/10/11/a-data-driven-approach-to-risk-management/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eFull disclosure: this is me working through an idea in public but, if you’ve been reading my stuff for a while, you’ll know that the blog and email are often me thinking out loud, trying out ideas to see what sticks. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn this case, it’s not a new idea but, instead, a rather old one. A 20-year-old one…\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"data-driven-risk-management\"\u003eData-Driven Risk Management\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHow this came about isn’t important, but since my first risk assessment, I’ve felt that there’s a need for some kind of simple math to underpin things and help with consistency. Eventually, that became the kind of thing you’ll have seen in \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/03/24/risk-assessments-grading-and-metrics/\"\u003ethe metrics and gradings work here\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Data-Driven Approach to Risk Management – The Risk Metrics Project Background \u0026 Overview"},{"content":"This recent tweet made me chuckle as I thought, ‘Yup, sounds just like a Barbara.’\nEd Burmilia on Twitter\nLike this author’s fictitious Peggy, ‘Barbara’ is my shorthand for the person who’s essential to an organization. But, unlike Peggy, Barbara’s real. What’s a Barbara? Barbara was the founder’s EA at a firm where I worked and, having been there since the very beginning, knew everything there was to know about the business. Unsure where a document might be? Ask Barbara. Don’t know where the jugs for the water cooler are? Ask Barbara. Can’t remember how a legacy client came onboard? Ask Barbara Unfortunately, at one point, Barbara was very sick and was off work for a long time, meaning that a lot of things – big and small – didn’t get done. But not only were they not done, no one knew that we should have been doing them. It took a long time to make up for Barbara’s absence and for the firm to get to grips with everything this one person did. Understandably, in addition to the celebration when she returned, there was also a big sigh of relief.\nMeanwhile, around the same time, I was writing a lot of crisis management plans (CMP) and business continuity management (BCM) surveys which meant working closely with firms to get to know them and how they operated. And something I noticed was that most of them, whether a mom-and-pop run, mid-sized businesses, or multi-national with thousands of staff, had their own Barbara equivalent.\nThe same name would come up repeatedly as I’d conduct my surveys. I’d hear, ‘You’ll need to ask Frank about that’ or ‘Check with Sophia to see if that’s right’ over and over again.\nIt was the same problem we had back at my office: a lot was riding on this one person. And, similar to Barbara, precisely what they did wasn’t fully understood and definitely not written down.\nFlying Under The Radar However, unlike the CEO and executives, where there were clear rules for delegating authority, succession planning, and defined roles and responsibilities, there was no one to replace these ‘Barbaras.’ Moreover, unlike my office, where everyone knew Barbara’s importance, many of these essential employees were flying under the radar.\nSo these firms all had what you’d call ‘key-person-risk’: one person has a hugely disproportionate influence on the business, and their absence causes massive disruption.\nExcept, ‘key-person-risk’ is usually thought of as applying to a senior manager. In contrast, in most cases I saw, it was someone much farther down the structure – someone who might not even realize their significance to the firm.\nHow To Spot your Barbara Given their importance, it’s vital that you identify your Barbaras right away. (I say Barbaras plural because larger organizations, especially those with siloed departments or where smaller organizations merged, may have several Barbaras beavering away.)\nYou may already be thinking, ‘hey, that sounds like Juan or Leila,’ in which case, congratulations, you’ve already identified your Barbara. But what if there’s not a name that jumps out at you?\nLuckily, there are a few characteristics that help you spot a Barbara.\nThey’ve usually been around for a long time, often since the organization got started. They have close personal relationships with the founder or senior executives who have been around for a long time. They get invited to a lot of meetings where their exact role doesn’t match the topic, but people feel better having them involved. Their name is the one that comes up when someone’s unsure about something and doesn’t know who to ask. If you can think of someone who fits that description, that’s probably your Barbara. Then, it’s a case of putting aside time to get to know them, explaining your concern – that a large part of the organization’s success rests on their shoulders – and working out how to get some of their institutional knowledge written down and shared with others.\nHowever, even though most Barbaras are team players, asking someone to teach others what they do will feel a lot like asking them to train their successor. Everyone will have to be handled differently, but, in most cases, folks will cooperate if you explain why you’re concerned and the repercussions of their absence. Just avoid giving the impression that they’re being asked to step aside or hand over. The whole exercise is also much easier if it’s part of a larger initiative like BCM planning or updating roles and responsibilities.\nThroughout all of this, don’t mistake a pivotal employee for a Barbara. Many roles, particularly in small businesses, get involved in everything, but the difference is that their involvement is formal, codified, and well understood. (You still need to avoid key-person risk, but at least you recognize who’s essential.) In contrast, Barbaras fly under the radar to start with and you usually don’t know how pivotal they are until they’re gone.\nSo whether they’re a Peggy, Barbara, Juan, or Leila, think about your organization and who might be that pivotal employee flying under the radar. Find them, understand what they do, and then make sure there’s someone who can step in if they’re absent.\n(Spoiler: You Might be the Barbara) And while you’re at it, make sure you’re not the Barbara: a lot of risk and security managers end up in this role because their remit is so broad. So if you notice that you are to go-to in your organization for a wide range of things, congratulations, you’re the Barbara! Now, go and start writing down what you know before it’s too late.\nPhoto by Christina @ wocintechchat.com on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/10/11/whos-your-organizations-barbara/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThis recent tweet made me chuckle as I thought, ‘Yup, sounds just like a Barbara.’\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/0e4596e4_fb69c-burmilia-college-tweet-peggy-runs-the-palce.png\"\u003e\n\u003cem\u003eEd Burmilia on Twitter\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLike this author’s fictitious Peggy, ‘Barbara’ is my shorthand for the person who’s essential to an organization. But, unlike Peggy, Barbara’s real. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"whats-a-barbara\"\u003eWhat’s a Barbara?\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBarbara was the founder’s EA at a firm where I worked and, having been there since the very beginning, knew everything there was to know about the business. \u003c/p\u003e","title":"Who’s Your Organization’s Barbara?"},{"content":"ESG under attack as ‘woke’ capital This post originally appeared in the ‘So What’ newsletter on July 1, 2022\nIn a lot of recent coverage, ESG (environmental, social \u0026amp; governance) is being termed ‘woke’ capitalism by both supporters and detractors of the investment class. This perception further strengthens the sense that, rather than measuring how well a firm or fund performs in some important non-operational ways, ESG is nothing more than a form of virtue signaling and/or a scam.\n(Notably, in the same week that this headline appeared in the FT, another article by an ESG enthusiast was titled Critics of ‘woke’ capitalism are wrong. It seems the ‘woke’ label is sticky.)\nThere seem to be three big developments around ESG at the moment.\nFor many, ESG = ‘woke’ First, due to the ‘social’ element of ESG being heavily dominated by cultural issues in the US, being ‘for’ ESG is interpreted as companies being sympathetic to progressive causes. This pulls them into the US culture wars where they are presumed to have taken a side before they even become involved in an issue. This has positive and negative effects on a firm’s reputation and finances: those for an issue see them as an ally while opponents see it as an enemy. (Although there seems to be research that suggests that negative sentiments outweigh positive ones. This would mean that while an angry customer might boycott your firm an equally supportive member of the public is less likely to switch brands to support you. (No sources for this as I need to do some more digging here.)\nAnti-ESG Funds are springing up Second, anti-ESG funds are emerging to invest in industries like fossil fuels.\nArticle 5: an attack on one is an attack on all Third, attacks on any part of ESG harm the whole: the environmental, social \u0026amp; governance elements are equally damaged, even if an attack originates from a disagreement over social issues.\nThe Downside of ESG Despite its noble origins – arguably the manifestation of Google’s motto ‘don’t be evil’ – ESG is not in great shape, and some criticism appears valid.\nFirst, reporting is uneven and lacks a common standard. Plus, much of the data used in ESG scoring is unverified or self-reported. (Something initiatives like The Green Impact Exchange are trying to address [Disclaimer, I’m friends with one of the founders, but he didn’t put me up to this.])\nSecond, initiatives often appear more style than substance. Greenwashing is rampant, and simply adding more underrepresented groups to the c-suite does not solve system inequalities across a whole firm. This means that instead of making meaningful strides to address real issues, the focus is on ESG theater.\nhttps://www.thelykeion.com/101-in-sustainable-finance/\nThird, ESG is too big to be clumped together now Combining all three elements was expedient and sensible at the outset of the initiative and helped make companies more responsible for matters other than pure shareholder returns, but it has run its course. Each element of ESG has become more sophisticated and mature, meaning that other than all being broadly ‘for the good,’ these elements don’t align as neatly. For example, a nuclear power plant would score highly in the E column but will be politically toxic for many. While E, S, and G are all lumped together, there’s no easy way to rate a firm using a single metric. However, I’d suggest this is a positive development that illustrates the maturity of the concept. Similar to how health, safety, security, and environment (HSSE) were lumped together initially but, as these functions matured and became embedded in corporate culture, they drifted apart operationally. Although the overall intent of keeping the company’s staff, assets, neighbors, and environment safe remained, trying to manage HSSE as a block would be unworkable for most firms. Similarly, ESG has now matured to the point where – as a victim of its own success – the three elements no longer sit as neatly together.\nSo What? ESG is complex, and there are real regulatory requirements to meet, depending upon your jurisdiction, but here are four suggestions that I believe can make ESG programs more manageable.\nFirms should break up ESG and address each matter separately. Addressing each issue separately allows firms to manage the associated risks from each threat category more effectively. Managing and reporting these separately (even if still under the broad heading of ESG to distinguish from operational or financial risks) will allow CROs to add nuance and distinction to their reports to help shareholders and other parties genuinely understand how the firm is performing in each area. Although this may seem like a burden on small firms, the same effect can be achieved by addressing each topic separately instead of addressing the whole ESG landscape at once.\nTreat ESG ratings as a measure of progress, not a score. Treating ESG (collectively or individually) as a score misses the point. The intent is not to get an A+ or 100%: the goal is for firms to first, do no harm, and second, create a net positive for society. However, it’s up to each firm to state what its goals are for each element in ESG. These start with adhering to laws and regulations. Then, it is up to the firm to determine what it wants to achieve according to its business and values (see the next point). Once these goals are set, the firm can then measure progress along each of these pathways, giving shareholders and interested parties a better idea of how the firm is progressing, not just measuring up to an arbitrary standard.\nBut when you do measure, measure realistically Pick some clear, hard metrics and base your reporting on these. Then, stick to these. Avoid the trend of the day or having hucksters come in and offer to audit you on an opaque standard. By all means, have someone conduct an audit, but make sure it’s somehting you’ll be able to track progress against and that there are some objective measurements involved. https-//imgflip.com/memetemplate/378730914/esg-score\n‘186 metrics”: feels like a threat, not a promise…\nStart with purpose and values. Companies provide goods and services first and foremost, and without fulfilling that core purpose (we make [this] for [them]), there is no firm, no shareholder return, and no jobs. However, a firm should also have a core set of values that it prizes – its ethical OS, for want of a better term. Where a firm can and wants to contribute to the social good, all the better, but that can’t be at the expense of the mission. Looking at the elements of ESG through this mission and values lens will help CEOS and executives decide what steps to take in each area. Moreover, grounding everything in mission and values makes it much easier to explain and defend the decisions you’ve made and to stay consistent.\nPhoto by Árpád Czapp on Unsplash\nPublish on beehiiv\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/10/03/esg-is-under-attack-so-what/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"esg-under-attack-as-woke-capital\"\u003eESG under attack as ‘woke’ capital\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis post originally appeared in the ‘So What’ newsletter on July 1, 2022\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn a lot of recent coverage, ESG (environmental, social \u0026amp; governance) is being termed ‘woke’ capitalism by both supporters and detractors of the investment class. This perception further strengthens the sense that, rather than measuring how well a firm or fund performs in some important non-operational ways, ESG is nothing more than a form of virtue signaling and/or a scam.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"ESG is Under Attack: So What?"},{"content":"Data or information by itself is meaningless.\nFor it to be useful, we need to add context. This is the difference between information and intelligence: once we’ve analyzed the information and put it into context, the resultant intelligence gives us an understanding of a situation. Another way to write this is understanding = knowledge + context But that’s sometimes easier said than done. What do we mean by context, and how does this help you understand a situation better?\nHere’s a simple tool I use to put things into context and help answer the question, ‘so what?’.\nEstablishing Context with Lenses The simplest way to think about context is that these are the associated factors that affect the data you’ve gathered. But these ideas of context and associated factors often feel very abstract, so I prefer to think of a box of lenses or filters that I can use to examine my data.\nSome lenses provide a broad view, while others let me zoom in. Some only show one data type, but others might be like 3-d glasses that give me a very in-depth view. I use these imaginary lenses throughout the consulting process, and I have a whole set of lenses I’ll use to put a piece of data into context. These lenses let me ‘slice’ a large volume of data into manageable parts and consider it from different perspectives. For example, imagine we look at a factory’s wages. The hourly rate is a piece of data that, by itself, means very little. However, we will learn a lot more when we apply some lenses.\nA national lens lets me see how these compare to the national average An industry lens allows me to see how the wages compare to other firms in the sector A local lens lets me see how these wages compare to other firms in town and the local cost of living A regulations lens allows me to see what wages look like compared to the national minimum. I can even apply a time lens to how wages have changed year by year. The wage data is considerably more helpful now that we’ve added context with our lenses. We can now apply that understanding to develop a solution for whatever problem we’re trying to solve. The lenses you should apply will be particular to your business or area of expertise but do take care to use lenses that allow a like-by-like comparison. Otherwise, you aren’t putting things into context. That’s why, in the example above, the industry lens compares wages to other firms in the sector, whereas the local lens draws a comparison with other firms in town. Mixing things up – for example, comparing salaries at a steelworks in one town with those at a cafe in a distant big city – might not give you much helpful context.\nYou should also be careful that you don’t accidentally use outliers or statistical anomalies as comparison points.\nNevertheless, spend some time thinking about the lenses you could apply to problems in your industry or sector, and keep these in mind when you’re next confronted with a problem. These will help you put the information you have to hand into context, build your understanding and help the solution take shape.\nThis post is taken from The Consultant’s Handbook, my guide on how to deliver client success, and run a profitable firm as a consultant. Learn more about the book here.\nPhoto by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/09/15/a-quick-way-to-establish-context-and-develop-understanding/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eData or information by itself is meaningless.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor it to be useful, we need to add context. This is the difference between information and intelligence: once we’ve analyzed the information and put it into context, the resultant intelligence gives us an understanding of a situation. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/03/03/wdymbunderstanding/\"\u003eAnother way to write this is understanding = knowledge + context\u003c/a\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/6861ddcd_understanding.png\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut that’s sometimes easier said than done. What do we mean by context, and how does this help you understand a situation better?\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Quick Way to Establish Context and Develop Understanding"},{"content":"There’s a saying that there are no atheists in a foxhole, and it’s the same for a boardroom in crisis. Facing the worst day of their life, even the most bitter executives who don’t even know where the nearest church, mosque, or temple is will be trying to remember the prayers they learned as a child. They won’t add God to their stakeholder matrix, but they still hope He’s on their side.\nBut, instead of relying on divine intervention – which could be put to better use than protecting shareholders’ investments – there’s another prayer that is much more practical.\nThe Serenity Prayer Reinhold Niebuhr’s Serenity Prayer asks that\nGod, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference Reinhold Niebuhr\nAlthough he wrote this in the 1930s, Niebuhr reflected a philosophy that stretches back to the Stoics: that we can only control what we can control.\nUnfortunately, executives and leaders can lose perspective on what they can control. Money and power expand the extent to which you can control the world, but this increased control isn’t infinite. So a CEO may be all-powerful in the bubble that encompasses their offices and factories, during industry events, and at social events they sponsor, giving the impression that the whole world will bend to their will. But the world they control only extends to the edge of that bubble. What lies beyond is something different altogether, and their power diminishes dramatically.\nHowever, because the problems they’re dealing with have entered their bubble, they mistakenly believe they also have control over the external causal factors.\nThinking that you can control these external factors – whether that’s the oil price, behavior of angry customers, or motivations of a criminal – is futile. Moreover, time spent trying to manage the unmanageable is at the expense of taking action where you can make a difference.\nThe Need for Perspective And that’s where the Serenity Prayer (or your Stoic of choice) comes in.\nBecause you need the wisdom to know the difference between the things you can and cannot control.\nOtherwise, you’ll be like the business leaders in 2008 who thought they could opt out of the global financial crisis through sheer force of will. Or politicians today who believe they can simply will a budget surplus out of nowhere. They can expect the same success rate as King Canute had with the tide.\nSo you must be honest and clear-eyed to differentiate between what you can and cannot control. Otherwise, you’ll be engaging in willful thinking that will make matters worse.\nThen, you return to the first part of Niebuhr’s prayer, deal with what you can, and accept the events outside your control, but work out what you can do in response.\nBe Effects Led Because here’s the final part of this puzzle.\nWe’re primarily talking about causal events here. Some of these events are in your control but the majority are not. However, how you respond to these external, uncontrollable events is entirely in your control.\nSo instead of wishing bad news away, or trying to assert your will over something that’s outside your control, focus on what you can control and respond appropriately. That will keep your preparations and response to whatever comes at you grounded in the real world, not built on a fantasy of control that doesn’t exist.\nWith the winter we’re shaping up to have, it may be worth making this differentiation sooner rather than later.\nPhoto by Chris Liverani on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/09/08/a-prayer-for-risk-and-crisis-managers/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThere’s a saying that there are no atheists in a foxhole, and it’s the same for a boardroom in crisis. Facing the worst day of their life, even the most bitter executives who don’t even know where the nearest church, mosque, or temple is will be trying to remember the prayers they learned as a child. They won’t add God to their stakeholder matrix, but they still hope He’s on their side.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Prayer for Risk and Crisis Managers"},{"content":"I started the KISS risk management project five years ago with the idea that risk management was being made too complicated and there were too many gatekeepers in the way. That makes it hard to get started in the profession, which robs businesses of a broad range of perspectives and viewpoints (a risk in itself). But this lack of general risk intelligence also makes us all worse off: we need people to make risk-based decisions in all kinds of situations.\nAlong the way, I realized that most of the material available seemed to assume you already understood risk and risk management. Everything seemed to be written at a college or grad school level – there were no middle-school or high-school risk management courses. With these two ideas in mind – open access and making things as simple as possible – I started the KISS risk management project back in February 2017.\nSo after five years, I thought it was worth taking stock and seeing what I’ve learned along the way. I’ve summarized five big things I’ve learned below – all of which are, hopefully, takeaways that will benefit you too.\nThere’s still a need Tens of thousands of people have read the posts on my blog, and thousands more see my stuff on Quora, Medium, and elsewhere. Almost 4,000 have taken my free Risk Management Basics Course, hundreds have bought the books and downloaded the guides*. And these are just the people I see – there are many more out there looking for this kind of information, and the interest doesn’t seem to be slowing down.\nWhat’s the takeaway? For me, it means that my initial hunch was correct, and I should keep doing this. For you, it means that there are people out there who will benefit from your knowledge of risk, so please share it. (*These numbers were pleasantly surprising, TBH.)\nSimplification is hard There’s a quote in my head (but sadly out of reach of my memory and Google):\n“If you want a thousand words, I can get it to you this afternoon but, if you want a hundred, give me a week.”\n(Let’s just say it was Mark Twain who seems to be responsible for all internet quotes.)\nWhatever the exact origin, the point is that taking any complex idea and explaining it simply, clearly, and succinctly is hard. You need to know your subject matter inside and out and, as I’ve discovered, be willing to attack your ideas quite forcibly yourself before anyone else gets there.\nIf you’ve read father back in the blog, you’ll have seen this as I’ve returned to some of the core themes over time. The original versions of some pieces were 3,000 – 4,000 words long but, by the time I came to write Beyond The Spreadsheet, some had shrunk by 90%. And in addition to some welcome brevity, I think the ideas got stronger as I revised them. The second or third version is always a cleaner, tighter idea that’s easier to understand and stands up to scrutiny.\nWhat’s the takeaway? For me, it means that I need to keep doing grinding through the first draft of ideas, knowing that the final, short, focused version is much more valuable and useful. (Plus, I need to remember to appreciate your patience as I thrash around in my confusion.) For you, you can use the same approach with just about any idea you need to share by writing it down and sitting with it for a bit. By the time you’ve let it sit for a while, and beaten the ideas up a bit, what you end up with is a better, more straightforward, more robust idea or argument. Things are more similar than they are different Of everyone who has taken my training, some of the biggest ‘repeat offenders’ organization-wise are from a financial regulator, the DoD, and a packaging firm. On one level, these have nothing in common. But, these folks all needed a basic introduction to risk management, and the same basic concepts, processes, and ideas worked for them, people from three very different organizations. And it’s the same when you start managing risks and issues. The specific details may differ, but many of the risks organizations face originate from some common threat vectors. And the way they behave is startlingly similar, no matter how much they tell you ‘but we’re different”.\nThat’s why even though what I’m sharing isn’t one-size-fits-all, it’s undoubtedly one-size-fits-many.\nWhat’s the takeaway? For me and you, focus on the simple, common, shared attributes of things instead of over-indexing for what’s different. Simple works Apart from some highly technical industries (such as financial services), simple risk management techniques work pretty well. In fact, even financial services firms still have a lot of risks that can be identified, assessed, and addressed using simple techniques – you don’t need a quantum computer to work out that your toxic work environment is a disaster waiting to happen.\nSimple works more often than not: the simplest explanation is often correct, the simplest solution is the most effective, and the simplest process the most durable.\nWhat’s the takeaway? For me and you, it’s to stick to the original idea – keep it stupid simple. There’s more I’ve picked up over five years as you’d imagine (such as not having three websites!?!?!?!), but these five points seemed to be most salient and, I hope, beneficial to you too.\nPhoto by ANIRUDH on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2022/02/15/reflections-after-five-years-of-kiss-risk-management/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI started the KISS risk management project five years ago with the idea that risk management was being made too complicated and there were too many gatekeepers in the way. That makes it hard to get started in the profession, which robs businesses of a broad range of perspectives and viewpoints (a risk in itself). But this lack of general risk intelligence also makes us all worse off: we need people to make risk-based decisions in all kinds of situations.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Reflections after five years of KISS risk management "},{"content":"*I received an email a few years ago from someone just getting started in risk management asking if I had any thoughts or advice on the risk management skills they needed. The response quickly became several pages long and I thought it was worth turning it into a blog piece that others might benefit from. So here are 10 considerations for new risk managers (although this could also be titled ‘Letter to a 30-year old me’ or a 40-year old me.) *\nBeginning any career or specialist field can be daunting and getting started in risk management is no different. There are many challenges out there and some will continue to crop up as long as you are practicing risk management. Here, in no particular order, are 10 considerations for new risk managers: skills or abilities you should look to develop as you embark on your career as a risk manager.\n🎧 Listen to a recording of this post 🎧 1. Identify the differences between theory and practice Most people have some kind of theoretical training before they get their start in risk management. Even someone who has been a practitioner should formalize their knowledge and skills before taking on a risk manager role. This is the approach I took and I found that I gained a great deal from some formal study. However, now that your technical risk management skills are in place, you will quickly discover that there are big differences between theory and practice. One of the first things you have to do is figure these differences out.\nHow theory is interpreted There will always be some differences between risk theory / regulatory structures and what things looks like in reality, even in highly regulated industries. This could be as simple as using different terminology for a group (e.g. is the risk committee called something else?) or is a different methodology used for assessing risks?\nThese changes are necessary to ensure that the theory or regulation can be applied effectively within the organization. Most standards and guidance documents will include words to the effect that organizations can adapt the standard as long as they adhere to the central tenets.\nThis will usually result in the organization creating some kind of risk management policy and procedure explaining how risk management is managed in practice. These documents translate the theory into practical steps and will act as your day-to-day guidance for what you need to do.\nThink of this as how is the theory is interpreted.\nHow theory is applied Even if the theory or standard has been adopted without alteration, you need to understand what this looks like in practice. How is a risk assessment conducted? How does the risk committee meet? What is the format for the risk register? These are all things that you need to understand.\nSometimes there will be differences in procedures within the organization and some departments may apply the guidelines differently. There may be good reasons for this. For example, a department may have to follow a specific regulation. This can make it difficult to get a clear picture of how risk management is really practiced. Nevertheless, you need to understand what the day-to-day system looks like.\nThink of this as how the theory is applied.\nMind the gap(s) Once you understand how the theory is interpreted and applied, you will be able to operate within the organization’s risk management system. You can also put your theoretical risk management skills and knowledge to better use. Now you can now relate your theoretical knowledge to the practical, day-to-day risk activities in your organization.\nAlways keep the theoretical in mind. Sometimes rules are adapted or interpreted in such a way that they diverge from the intent of the theory or regulation. You are in a good position to spot any gaps between theory and practice as your knowledge is still fresh.\nRemember that things change Remember, theories are amended and regulations get updated so keep educating yourself. Stay up to date on developments in the field particularly as it applies to your sector. This will help you maintain a good sense of the theory as a touchstone you can always refer to.\n2. Get to know your organization and industry Read as much as you can about your organization and try to conduct your own personal ‘tour of the business.’ This helps you get to know how the organization works and you can then apply this to your role. For example, you will start to see where a rule or regulation might place undue pressure on a specific part of the business. Others might be required to change their work practices to comply. Going back to point #1 above, this will help you see how the regulations are applied, to spot gaps and to make suggestions. To learn about the business, just try asking people something along the lines of\n“I’m keen to learn my way around organization. Can I have 15 minutes of your time to understand what it is you and your department do?”\nEven if you aren’t able or feel comfortable walking into someone’s office to try to set this up, you can often grab people after a meeting and ask them for a few minutes of their time.\nI have found people to be incredibly generous with their time and have benefited from hours and hours of one-on-one tuition in everything from deep water drilling to pharmaceutical trials just by asking someone for a 15 minute chat over coffee. It’s much easier to say you don’t understand something when you are just starting so take advantage of being ‘new’ to the business. That said, you should never be afraid to say that you don’t understand something, even if you have been around a business for a while.\nThis is also a great way to practice asking good questions and listening which I think are critical risk management skills (see #9 below).\n3. Ask ‘why?’ a lot (even if you have to keep it to yourself to start with) To really understand a process, I think it’s useful to ask ‘why we doing it like this?’ So rather than just following the process from A through Z, try to understand why things are the way they are. That helps you really understand the overall intent and differentiate between steps that may seem similar but have significantly different purposes.\nFor example, there may be two notifications to be made once an activity is complete. One of these may be for internal audit whereas the other might be a mandatory external reporting requirements. Both are important but the implications of missing the second step would be more significant.\nAnother reason to ask why? is you can find ways to make processes more effective. You might find that some steps are there because of outdated practices or old systems that have since been phased out. You don’t have to suggest wide-spread changes on your first day in the organization but there will be opportunities to suggest improvements along the way.\nI appreciate that this can be hard to do when you’re just starting out. Coming in hot on day one might ruffle feathers and we all feel exposed when we have to admit we don’t understand something. However, understanding why systems operate the way that they do helps determine why previous errors have occurred or spot potential breaches the future.\nAnd remember, you bring a fresh, objective perspective to things which those who have lived with the system for years don’t have.\n4. It’s not just about compliance and regulatory risk Organizations face a wide range of threats on top of those that arise from a regulatory breach. Changes in the economy can threaten the organization’s business if the client base dries up. Bad behavior by senior executives can harm an organization’s reputation. Compromising your customer information will have both legal and reputational consequences.\nWhatever your specific risk management specialty, you should try to maintain as broad a view of the risks your organization faces as possible. If you keep asking ‘so what?’ you might spot threats that would otherwise be overlooked.\n5. Learn to speak money Know how everything in the business is valued. Be able to explain things in dollars and cents. Know what a unit of time costs so you can understand the trade-off between\nWith very few exceptions, what happens in an organization comes down to money. Even if you think of time or resources, these still equate to salaries and costs. Being able to think in Dollars, Euros, Dinars or Pesos, allows you to understand how risks can impact the business and what the costs of mitigation are.\nRemember that despite any other metrics tracked, businesses are judged on their short-term financial performance. Even complying with regulation can come down to a financial decision. I have watched companies pay a fine of hundreds of thousands of dollars rather than incur the greater expense required to make changes to comply with a law. Such is the power of the quarterly earnings call.\n6. Be data / fact driven and objective (until you need to be subjective) Have the facts at hand to back up whatever you are saying or advising. This could be a set of guidelines, internal data or a set of observations collected in interviews. This also includes having well-defined levels for risk appetite and risk tolerance which can be used as benchmarks.\nFacts and an objective approach helps strengthen your argument but also de-personalizes things. This way, you can have a robust discussion with others but it is the facts that are disputed, not someone’s opinion.\nThere is a time and place for subjectivity but I think that starting with a set of objective data points is key for the risk manager. You can think of this mix of data and gut feeling informed intuition.\n“I like to be really data-driven, but I don’t ignore the human instinct element of it. For me, my process is, a lot of times, roll around in the data, get to know it and really understand it really well, and then make a gut-based call, which is often supported by data and a lot of hard-to-articulate factors as well.” Marissa Mayer on the ‘Masters of Scale’ podcast with Reid Hoffman\n7. Think about what you will do when you are asked to change an assessment As a risk manager, you will often be the bearer of bad news. Either there’s a problem that you’ve uncovered or you found an activity that exceeds the agreed levels of risk tolerance and needs to be stopped.\nIn these cases, you may find yourself under enormous pressure to make changes to soften things. In the worst case scenario, you might be asked to ignore things altogether. These requests are often very subtle and a small omission or tweak by itself might not mean much. However, if you allow lots of omissions or soften all your assessments, you end up with a system that’s ineffective.\nThis is when being data driven is very useful. It’s much harder to change things that arise from data, observations and empirical findings compared to anything that is more subjective.\nI won’t pretend that doing the right thing is simple – if it were, I don’t think Wells Fargo would have had the problems that they did a few years back. It can be really hard, especially when you are just starting out!\nOf all the risk management skills, this might be the hardest to master. All I can advise is to judge each situation as it comes and do what you feel is right. You may have to pick your battles but be careful not to start overlooking small things because this can make it difficult to take a stand later. You have to be able to look yourself in the eye when you brush your teeth each morning. If you can’t, you probably aren’t doing the right thing.\n**But, whatever you do, keep a note of your work and have a written back up of what you advise, suggest and submit. **\nIf you are uncomfortable with a recommended change, get that in writing. Either ask for written amendment or send a polite follow-up email after the meeting. E.g. * ‘I just wanted to confirm the key changes requested on the XYZ report…’ *Just make sure you aren’t the last one left standing when the music stops.\nFinally, remember that in all but the most exceptional of organizations, if your assessments don’t make people slightly uncomfortable, then you aren’t digging deep enough. The risk assessment report shouldn’t be a comfort blanket telling people what they are doing right. It’s there to tell them what is threatening their organization. You are supposed to be telling them what’s wrong so they can fix it.\nThis doesn’t mean you need to be confrontational, just honest.\n8. Remember, risk is a support function It can be easy to forget that our own role isn’t the most important thing in a business, especially for something as important as risk management. Nevertheless, we are still in a support role. Keep your eye on the organization’s overall objectives and ensure that you are supporting these with your work.\nLearn how to negotiate, build alliances, cooperate and compromise with other functions and departments. This will help you fulfill your role when there are additional pressures or limitations. Also, remember point #5 – learn to speak money. Keep reminding yourself of the financial implications of what you are doing.\n9. Soft skills are risk management skills too Quick – what’s the most important risk management skill? Being an Excel whiz? Great at math? A love of detail? A passion for checklists? What about being a good listener?\nIf you aren’t a good listener, you’ll miss the key piece of data that explains why something isn’t working. You’ll ignore that all-important pause before someone answers a hard question. You won’t pick up that you are getting ‘canned’ answers and aren’t getting a realistic picture of things.\nBeing an effective risk manager requires you to mix softer skills alongside your technical risk management skills. Good interpersonal skills, problem solving and imagination are critical ‘softer’ skills. These skills develop as your emotional intelligence grows but start working on these as early as possible.\nRisk management is so much more than simply being the ‘regulations police.’ There are creative ways to mitigate risks but you won’t find them without these soft skills.\n10. Finally, seek out the things that inspire you No matter what stage you are at in life or your career, as a risk manager, you have the opportunity to do all kinds of interesting things. You will be involved in important decisions to make your organization more effective, stay ‘on the straight and narrow’ and help the people you serve.\nAnd you have a pretty wide remit.\nRisk management covers everything in an organization: every location, every function and every activity. You have an excuse to noodle around and learn, developing and expanding your risk manager skills along the way. This will make your day-to-day work more interesting and you can start to focus on areas that you find more interesting.\nWant to make a better CDO? Interested in mitigating kidnapping risk? Attracted to the challenges of managing reputational risk? Each of these is very different but they all require a solid understanding of risk management principles to do well.\nI’ve been a risk manager for over 15 almost 20 years and am still being challenged by the range of what falls under ‘risk management’. I love picking apart a problem, trying to work out the root cause or solve an issue. I’m grateful I can sit with senior executives from all kinds of different organizations and learn about their businesses. I learn something new with every client engagement or project and am continually developing my risk management skills. However, there is still a huge amount that I don’t know and unexpected areas of knowledge to explore.\nI won’t pretend that there isn’t also a lot of stress with some engagements. Wading through a new regulation can be a dull way to spend an evening or weekend (even though part of me enjoys it). Thankfully, there are multiple paths available to you, one of which will ignite an enthusiasm and passion which you can bring to your role. This will more than make up for having to wade your way through that next set of audit reports!\nNote – this is a revised version of the original post from 2019\nPhoto by Jukan Tateisi on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2021/03/19/10-considerations-for-new-risk-managers/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*I received an email a few years ago from someone just getting started in risk management asking if I had any thoughts or advice on the risk management skills they needed.  The response quickly became several pages long and I thought it was worth turning it into a blog piece that others might benefit from.   So here are 10 considerations for new risk managers (although this could also be titled ‘Letter to a 30-year old me’ or a 40-year old me.) *\u003c/p\u003e","title":"10 Considerations for New Risk Managers"},{"content":"Becoming a risk manager can seem to be more art than science. There’s not a clear pathway from degree to junior risk manager to senior risk manager to CRO (Chief Risk Officer) in the same way that you can chart the progress from freshly minted CPA (Certified Public Accountant) to head of Ernst \u0026amp; Young. (Financial risk management is the exception here as there is usually a clear path there.)\n🎧 Listen to a recording of this post 🎧 So why is the risk manager career path fuzzy compared to other professions?\nRisk management is a less structured profession First, I think there are many risk managers for whom risk is a secondary element of their role. For [functional] risk managers – safety risk managers, project risk managers – their professional qualification and expertise is rooted elsewhere, no matter how much time they spend managing risk. Moreover, they’re expected to be functional experts first and foremost. Therefore, risk management is on their job description and a skill they need, but they aren’t hired as risk managers.\n(You can read more here on exactly what we mean by risk management.)\nSecond, there isn’t a hierarchy of risk managers in most organizations, so you can’t start as a junior risk manager and work your way up. There are the risk managers in functional areas and then an executive responsible for risk, but nothing in between. And for many of these executives, managing risk will be a secondary role: they’re not a formal CRO. So there’s no risk department with a hierarchy of expertise and levels of seniority to work through.\nHowever, before you get too despondent and toss your risk management degree application into the trash, there are routes into risk management, and you can map out a pathway to get you where you want to be.\nHere are three paths I’ve seen work on multiple occasions. The happy warrior A simple way for people to become risk managers is to learn on the job, slowly amassing more and more knowledge and responsibility as they go. Sometimes, this is deliberate, but it’s not uncommon for people to get to a particular stage in their career and realize that others see them as ‘the risk guru.’ They’ve slowly amassed more risk responsibility and knowledge as time went on. And taking on more and more risk responsibility is often surprisingly easy for one big reason: no-one else wants to do it.\nThis reluctance might seem odd – after all, risk management is essential – but remember that in most instances, risk management is just another responsibility people have in addition to their primary role. Anyone who comes along and enthusiastically offers to take that work off their plate will be welcomed with open arms.\nThat’s why I call this approach the happy warrior.\nHowever, don’t be greedy and overstretch yourself. Start by offering to pick up and shepherd any risk-related issues that come up in your team. Then, ask to represent the team at any risk management meetings. Ensure you educate yourself along the way in parallel, and you will quickly find that you are taking on and mastering a larger and larger risk management portfolio. Over time, that will set you up as the risk guru for your team, the department, and eventually the organization. Just make sure you balance this interest in risk with your other responsibilities until you can formalize your role as the risk manager.\n(Note that this progression might eventually require you to move firms as there is always an inertia to how people see you versus what you can do. So if you find that no matter how much risk management knowledge and responsibility you have, people still think of you as Frank the engineer, you might need to make a switch.)\nPiggybacking The second route to becoming a risk manager is probably the most common. You start by becoming a risk management expert in your field and then branch out. In some ways, this is similar to the happy warrior approach: you take on jobs and attend meetings that others in your department don’t want to. Over time, you build up your risk management expertise in your functional area before switching over to general risk. So you piggyback off your domain expertise into general risk management.\nHowever, there’s a significant danger here. Unlike the happy warrior who is probably dealing with organizational risk from an early stage, this approach requires you to become a risk management expert in your field first. And the better you are at that, the harder it is to be seen as a risk management generalist. That’s partly because you’re reinforcing the idea that you’re a silo expert: Sophia from Tech Support is now a cyber risk expert. However, it’s also because the qualifications you pick up in the early stages will be specific to your function. Cyber is a good example of this because cyber risk management is often treated as entirely different from other forms of risk management. (Spoiler, it isn’t.)\nHowever, you can take a wide and deep approach to avoid this issue. Become a deep expert in your field while also broadening your general risk management knowledge, possibly by employing elements of the Happy Warrior approach.\nOf course, being a functional risk management expert is in itself a rewarding and challenging role, so you may not want to make the switch to general risk management. However, always try to maintain a broad, organizational view of risk to ensure that your function supports an ERM (enterprise risk management) approach and doesn’t become a silo.\nEmbrace the Dark Side: join a consultancy The third route into risk management would be to start with a consulting firm and learn on the job there. This often requires experience or a degree in one area to get in the door, particularly with specialist firms. However, consulting is a specialization in its own right so, as you become more competent as a consultant, you will find other opportunities open to you. That means you can start with a general consulting firm, or one specializing in an area you’re already familiar with, before moving somewhere more risk-focused.\nMany people (me, for example) will predominantly work as risk management consultants instead of in-house managers. So consulting can be something that is its own pathway to becoming a risk manager. Alternatively, you can jump from consultant to employee in some cases, but that’s often a matter of timing.\nA brief window of opportunity A successful move ‘in-house’ requires someone who can shift from being a consultant and become a corporate ‘type.’ Sadly, the longer and more set in your ways as a consultant, the harder it can be to move into an internal role. Nevertheless, there’s a mid-career sweet spot where you’re competent as both a consultant and as a risk manager, but still young enough to be seen as adaptable. That’s when you’ll often find clients inviting you to come in-house but note that this window opportunity is fleeting: the chances of going in-house as a consultant of 10-year’s experience is much higher than that of a 25-year veteran.\nDon’t fake it till you make it However, the consulting route’s big challenge is that consulting places a series of perverse incentives on those involved. One of the biggest is the idea that you fake it till you make it, working on the assumption that the client has a knowledge deficit, so anyone with slightly more knowledge can add value. That’s not entirely wrong, but it doesn’t mean it’s good practice to put an inexperienced consultant into an engagement they aren’t ready for and expect them to make it up as they go. Unfortunately, that’s what many firms do. Rather than spend the time and effort training junior consultants and having them shadow someone more senior, many firms throw them in at the deep end, expecting them to wing it.\nLearning on the job is hugely important and a great way to learn a craft (it’s what I did for years before I started my degree), but that shouldn’t be at the client’s expense. So if you do want to take the consultant route, spend some time learning about a firm’s approach to training, education, and mentoring before you join. If you feel there is a good onboarding process and training regime, embracing The Dark Side and becoming a consultant is a great way to start.\nWhat about trying all three? Do you have to pick one route and stick to it? Absolutely not.\nA very good friend of mine left the military and joined a consultancy, where we met. He was highly competent but inexperienced in the corporate world. However, after a short period of working together in a semi-mentoring capacity, he was successfully running his own portfolio. Dark Side embraced!\nHe then had the opportunity to move in-house and become the security risk management for a client. That quickly morphed into more of a general risk and audit role, and he quickly moved up into the organization’s senior management. This change was partly piggybacking off his security risk management role, but he’s also a true happy warrior and was picking up risk-related tasks that the others weren’t.\n*A few years later, an opportunity arose for him to move into a very strategic, pure risk role at another large firm which is where he is now. *\nSo he started with no formal risk management experience, used consultancy to gain domain expertise, transitioned to an in-house functional risk role, piggybacked into a general risk role before finally moving into a pure risk role as a senior manager.\nThat took about 12-15 years, so it wasn’t fast, but you need to consider the amount you need to learn and master along the way.\nI think this illustrates how your pathway to becoming a risk manager is a case of mixing and matching approaches to suit your circumstances.\nFailure is still an option I’d be remiss if I pretended that things were as simple as picking one of these strategies and boom: suddenly you’re a risk manager. These opportunities won’t always present themselves, and sometimes you get stuck where you are.\nAnd the same biases that plague the workplace – gender, race, and age discrimination – are equally present in risk management. Moreover, these biases are amplified if you’re in a sector dominated by younger white men – IT – or old white men – security.\nMore perspectives = better risk management As an OWM myself, I’m not going to tell a young woman of color how to overcome these barriers or tell someone how they should behave to get ahead. Removing the obstacles isn’t their job – that’s a job for managers, recruiters, and incumbents like me. And other than some basic rules we should all be able to agree on*, we need people to be themselves at work because we hired them for who they are and what they can be, not to make corporate clones. (*Practicing civility and kindness to each other and striving to do a good job are things I think we can all get behind.)\nMoreover, this need for people to be themselves, and for teams to reflect society and all its differences, is vital in risk management. We need to see different perspectives, issues, and problems that won’t be obvious to a homogenous group.\nA broad perspective allows you to understand your risk environment more clearly – particularly societal and reputational risks – and to communicate with stakeholders and communities more effectively. Without diversity and a range of opinions and experiences, you’ll miss a large part of the picture. So the burden here is on the managers who hire people and senior professionals in the field. We need to remove barriers to entry, particularly when these are unrealistic expectations of prior experience or education. (We have to have some competencies to start in the field – say, analytical thinking, and ability to express our ideas on paper and in person, creativity and curiosity – but many people have these abilities when they leave high school or complete their undergrad degree. We shouldn’t require 10+ years of experience and an advanced degree or specialist diploma just to get started.)\nOpportunities need to be created and taken So, as well as the techniques I’ve outlined above – becoming a happy warrior, piggybacking off your domain expertise, or even taking the path to the Dark Side as a consultant – becoming a risk manager also relies on there being opportunities to make this switch. That’s wholly on incumbents who are already in the industry who, instead of being gatekeepers restricting entry, need to be bridge builders, creating additional pathways into the profession. So whether you are thinking about becoming a risk manager, or someone who can create opportunities for some fresh faces in the industry, I hope that this has given you some ideas, inspiration, and perhaps a way to chart a path forward. Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2021/03/07/becoming-a-risk-manager/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eBecoming a risk manager can seem to be more art than science. There’s not a clear pathway from degree to junior risk manager to senior risk manager to CRO (Chief Risk Officer) in the same way that you can chart the progress from freshly minted CPA (Certified Public Accountant) to head of Ernst \u0026amp; Young. (Financial risk management is the exception here as there is usually a clear path there.)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Becoming a risk manager"},{"content":"Googling ‘what is a risk manager?’ will get you variations on ‘it’s the person who manages that organization’s risks,’ which is a pretty weak answer. It’s certainly not enough to help anyone who’s just starting in the role to understand what they’re supposed to do. Similarly, if someone’s thinking about this as a career, we need a bit more. 🎧 Listen to a recording of this post 🎧 So here’s a more detailed answer.\n‘A risk manager is a person who helps an organization achieve success by understanding, managing and responding to its risks.’\nThat’s a lot better, but I want to go deeper and see what that means in practice. That way, if you’re thinking about becoming a risk manager, or are just beginning your career, you’ll have a much better understanding of what the role entails.\nLet’s start with the term risk itself before we go any further.\nWhat is risk? The ISO definition of risk is “the effect of uncertainty on objectives” (ISO 73). This is a robust, simple definition that I’ve used extensively because it works. It tells us that 1) we’re dealing with uncertainty and events that might occur and 2) we need to understand how these events might affect an entity, and 3) we’re focused on how these effects influence its objectives. That’s all we need for right now, but there’s a more in-depth article on risk here if you want to go deeper.\nSo now we have a definition for risk, we need to understand what risk management is.\nWhat is risk management? The critical idea in the risk definition we’re using is that risk could affect if or how you meet your objectives. So a risk could be beneficial – it could accelerate your progress (an upside risk) – or a hindrance – it could slow down your progress (a downside risk). So a risk has the potential to change your pathway to success.\nTherefore, we’re dealing with potential change, and that’s where risk management comes in.\nRisk management helps optimize organizations for success by preparing them to adapt to change, and there are four components to this:\nReducing uncertainty as much as practical Addressing identified risks Developing specific contingencies to address anticipated events and general contingencies for unanticipated events Building tools to limit losses and maximize benefits (balancing) These four components are the main elements of the risk manager’s role.\nSo we now have the description of the role – a risk manager is a person who helps an organization achieve success by understanding, managing, and responding to its risks – the risk manager’s four primary responsibilities and definitions for risk and risk management.\nThat’s a much more thorough answer to the question ‘what is a risk manager?’ I think.\nWhat a risk manager isn’t However, in addition to defining what a thing is, I always find it helpful to define what things aren’t. That helps sharpen up our understanding and, in this case, avoids ‘creep’ into areas that aren’t the risk manager’s responsibility. So what does the risk manager not do?\nFirst, the risk manager isn’t an auditor, even though there is an audit component to the role. The difference is that the risk manager is responsible for managing the risk management system, not just compliance and governance. So the role is focused on managing risk, not checking boxes to adhere to a standard.\nSecond, the risk manager isn’t the emergency and crisis leader. This is slightly more contentious because many risk managers do have a response role, but this is a secondary role in my eyes. Functional leaders are best positioned to manage incidents in their teams or departments so they should lead the operational response. The risk manager can support the response but my recommendation is to only ‘double-hat’ the position as a risk and response role if they have the skills and temperament to do both: it shouldn’t be a default responsibility. However, the risk manager will play an important role in an organizational crisis when high-level decisions are being made, but this is part of their role supporting decision-makers, not as fire-fighter in chief.\nFinally, the risk manager isn’t a back-room, administrative function. The risk manager needs a direct link to the leaders they support, ideally having a formal role in decision-making. This allows leaders to take full advantage of their unique understanding of the organization’s operational risk environment and what the alternatives might look like. This allows the risk manager to add clarity and reduce uncertainty in decision-making for issues that would otherwise be opaque. Small organizations are an exception Even though it is helpful to have these ‘no-go’ areas for the risk manager, the role will be shaped by the organization’s size and type.\nFor example, in a small organization, it’s not unusual to have one person who has a risk, safety, and security role that combines elements of all of these, along with audit and incident management. In this kind of a situation, it would be necessary to 1) ensure that everyone understands that these are separate functions, combined into one role (similar to having someone do sales and marketing), and 2) that the individual selected for the position as an aptitude in all of these areas. Being good at one of these doesn’t guarantee success in the others.\nWhat about the [blank] risk manager? If you have a prefix – financial risk manager, security risk manager, cyber risk manager – then you have the same role and responsibilities but focused on a specific organization area. The difference with functional risk managers is that they often have more blended roles incorporating audit and response, for example. Safety and security risk managers are very often Jacks (or Janes) of all trades. Otherwise, the core responsibilities are the same.\n(As a side-note, roles that use prefixes are often threat-led, not effects-led, which isn’t ideal because you end up with silos. For example, a security risk can arise from inadequate screening of new employees. If you’re threat-led, HR might oversee screening and exclude security from these decisions. This creates a blind-spot because the person responsible for security doesn’t have insight or input into managing this particular risk. However, if you are effects-led, security would coordinate with functional areas to ensure that whatever the origin, security risks were being assessed and mitigated.)\nSo what is a risk manager? So let’s go back to the original question. Now we have a definition describing what they do (in bold):\n‘A risk manager is a person who helps an organization achieve success by understanding, managing and responding to its risks.’\nAnd a set of responsibilities explaining how they do this.\nReducing uncertainty as much as practical Addressing identified risks Developing specific contingencies to address anticipated events and general contingencies for unanticipated events Building tools to limit losses and maximize benefits (balancing) Now, we’ve got a much better answer to the question ‘what is a risk manager?’ which, I hope, really helps people understand the risk manager’s role and how they fit into the organization.\nSo if you’re just starting out as a risk manager and feeling your way a little; if you’ve just inherited the title of the risk manager and aren’t 100% sure what that means; or if you’re interested in this as a career path, I hope that this has helped give you a better idea of what a risk manager is and what they do.\nThis is the first in a series of articles focused on the risk manager, their responsibilities, skills, and role in a company. You’ll find the other articles here as these are published.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2021/02/28/what-is-a-risk-manager/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eGoogling ‘what is a risk manager?’ will get you variations on ‘it’s the person who manages that organization’s risks,’ which is a pretty weak answer. It’s certainly not enough to help anyone who’s just starting in the role to understand what they’re supposed to do. Similarly, if someone’s thinking about this as a career, we need a bit more. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"-listen-to-a-recording-of-this-post-\"\u003e🎧 Listen to a recording of this post 🎧\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo here’s a more detailed answer.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"What is a risk manager?"},{"content":"Security is a guiding principle for DCDR, and protecting user data has been baked in from the start. However, there’s more to data security than restricting access and managing user permissions. I’ve used the INFOSEC abbreviation CIA – confidentiality, integrity, and availability – as a guide to help determine the steps required to protect your data while also ensuring that the system does what it’s supposed to. Overall, the intent is to ensure:\nConfidentiality – only those authorized by the owners of the data can see it. Integrity – the data in the system can be trusted to be accurate and unchanged Availability – users should be able to get the data they need when they need it. I’m always looking for ways to improve each of these elements, and the specific area I’m focused on right now is data integrity.\nData integrity There are several aspects to ensuring the integrity of user data, starting with the methodology used to assess risks that powers the assessment. However, I’ve recently been looking at ways to prove that the data is accurate in relation to governance and audit support.\nHere are a couple of scenarios I’ve had in mind that illustrate the need for a specific kind of verification around data integrity.\nScenario 1 During the development of the annual risk register, a significant (high likelihood) threat is assessed as posing a moderate risk because the impact on the firm would be relatively low. This assessment is based upon the best available information at the time of the assessment. There are several mitigation measures designed to mitigate this threat, but these are not executed properly. The event, when it occurs, causes a greater degree of damage than was anticipated because of the inadequacy of these mitigation measures. The subsequent investigation would want to know: who knew what and when; the mitigation planned; and which of the planned actions were actually undertaken. The challenge is that a spreadsheet, or even a record in DCDR, can be edited and updated because we need a way to keep things up to date.\nSo how can you verify that a record was created at a specific date/time and not altered afterwards?\nScenario 2 *Similarly, if an incident occurs, the initial report will be very sparse on details. As time goes on, the amount of information will grow as accounts become more accurate, photos and documents are added, and the picture becomes clearer. However, decisions made during the incident can only be based upon what was known at the time. These decisions can seem misguided when viewed in retrospect when all the information is available. The legal standard is often ‘how would a reasonable person have acted in similar circumstances,’ but this requires you to know what those circumstances were and what was known at the time. *\nAs in the first scenario, you need a way to verify the historical provenance of a record.\nThe case for adding this feature to DCDR Both scenarios suggest a requirement to verify the data’s integrity using a trusted source that all parties can rely upon. Adding this functionality to DCDR would help users in this situation and support them in their overall risk management activities. This makes a compelling case to add this feature to DCDR.\nSo how can we do that?\nBlockchain and distributed ledgers The solution I’ve settled on is to utilize the blockchain to maintain a verifiable, trusted record of activities within DCDR which still protects data confidentiality. Blockchain is the technology that underpins cryptocurrency as it is “a decentralized, distributed, and oftentimes public, digital ledger consisting of records called blocks that is used to record transactions across many computers so that any involved block cannot be altered retroactively, without the alteration of all subsequent blocks” (Wikipedia)\nIn our case, the data that forms these blocks will be a randomly generated UUID for each record. No data from the record is stored in the block.\nThe UUID block and the previous record’s block are added to each record. Combining these two blocks creates the ‘chain’ of records within the DCDR registry. Illustration of a blockchain being created for Bitcoin. In our case, the block transaction which becomes the root is the UUID of the current record. (Illustration Computerworld)\nIf a record is updated later, both the block for that record will change (because a new UUID is created) and the block for the previous record will be different. Therefore the updated record has a different ID and place in the chain than the original.\nWe now have an auditable and verifiable sequence of records that we can use to prove the historic provenance of records. This meets the requirements outlined in the scenarios above.\nAdditional trust A copy of the DCDR ledger will also be stored in a third-party distributed registry to further increase the records’ trustworthiness. This means that the DCDR ledger can also be validated, adding an extra level of confidence to the integrity of the DCDR records.\n*Illustration of a blockchain on a distributed ledger system by *Stephan Junestrand\nOnly the UUID records will be stored in the registry so no PII or confidential data will leave the DCDR system.\nNow we have created a two-level process for verification. First, records can be verified against the DCDR registry to determine provenance. Second, the DCDR registry can also be verified against the archived versions stored in the third-party distributed registry.\nThis two-level system means that the records in DCDR can be verified to a very high standard and that any changes or alterations can be identified. This two-tier validation will allow users to meet the requirements of investigations and audits similar to those outlined in the scenarios above with a very high degree of confidence in the records.\nRoll out This work is ongoing as at February 2021. The aim to have the DCDR registry established by late March 2021 and the third-party registry established by mid-year. The majority of this functionality will occur at the system level and requires no action by the user. Record IDs will be discretely added to reports once the DCDR registry has been established. Queries / comments Please email me with any questions you have. I’m particularly interested to hear about any use-cases that I haven’t addressed above. I’d also love to hear any criticisms or challenges you can see. Please email me at andrew@dcdr.io Clarifications Opt-out There is no opt-out from this service for Solo, Pro, and Team DCDR users. Enterprise users running a non-standard version of DCDR may opt-out of the service but would need to provide a waiver declaring that DCDR cannot support any audit or investigation of their records.\nGDPR and personal information No PII is associated with the UUID or the records stored in the DCDR register and the third-party registry. I therefore believe that this approach meets the GDPR anonymization requirement: that data be “rendered anonymous in such a manner that the data subject is not or no longer identifiable”. (https://gdpr-info.eu/recitals/no-26/)\nAudit requests A process for making requests for audit support will be issued mid-year.\nOriginal image by Terry on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2021/02/24/using-blockchain-to-validate-records-in-dcdr/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eSecurity is a guiding principle for DCDR, and protecting user data has been baked in from the start. However, there’s more to data security than restricting access and managing user permissions. I’ve used the INFOSEC abbreviation CIA – \u003cem\u003econfidentiality, integrity, and availability\u003c/em\u003e – as a guide to help determine the steps required to protect your data while also ensuring that the system does what it’s supposed to. Overall, the intent is to ensure:\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Using blockchain to validate records in DCDR"},{"content":"Big news! (And it’s not just that I have new glasses!)\nDCDR.io now allows you to have custom categories for risks and incidents. Switching your existing risk management system to DCDR is now easier than ever with:\nCustom logo ✅ Custom categories ✅ Custom dashboards 🔜\nEmail me if you want to learn more chat@dcdr.io\n(But yes, I also have new glasses….)\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2021/02/05/custom-categories-in-dcdr/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eBig news! (And it’s not just that I have new glasses!)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"http://dcdr.io/\"\u003eDCDR.io\u003c/a\u003e now allows you to have custom categories for risks and incidents. Switching your existing risk management system to DCDR is now easier than ever with:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCustom logo ✅\nCustom categories ✅\nCustom dashboards 🔜\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEmail me if you want to learn more \u003ca href=\"mailto:chat@dcdr.io\"\u003echat@dcdr.io\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(But yes, I also have new glasses….)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Custom categories in DCDR"},{"content":"It’s as easy as 1, 2, 3 with DCDR\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2021/01/19/risk-reports-in-30-seconds/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIt’s as easy as 1, 2, 3 with DCDR\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk reports in 30 seconds?"},{"content":"This is a very short post which should work because it’s a very simple idea. Obviously, I’m a fan of simple (this is KISS risk management after all) but, as with lots of simple ideas, the trick is sticking to the idea and seeing it through without getting distracted.\n🎧 Listen to a recording of this post 🎧 The idea is that you use the Pareto principle, or 80 / 20 rule, when you’re thinking about your risk management system. In short, the principle or rule is:\n80% of X arises from 20% of Y\nThere are countless blog posts and books about the principle and you can get an outline here or read this book but that’s the basic concept.\nSo what does this rule look like in practice?\n80% of a firm’s profits come from 20% of its offerings 80% of your work comes from 20% of your clients 80% of a school’s disciplinary problems come from 20% of students 80% mastery of a skill / subject / ability comes from learning 20% of the content This doesn’t necessarily mean you ignore the non-profitable product lines, cut off those other customers or expel the troublemakers. There are reasons you might want to sell loss-leading products or keep a marquee client on the books. But the 80 / 20 rule helps you identify where to put your focus and what will get you the most bang-for your buck.\n80 / 20 risk management So how do you apply this for risk management?\n80% of your risks are likely to come from 20% of your threats 80% of those risks can be tackled with 20% of your mitigation measures Now, I would say that a big part of this is going to depend on the measurement system you’re using. This is where having a quantitate assessment system is very helpful but even with a qualitative system or a matrix, you’ll be able to spot the most significant (e.g the darkest reds). These will probably make up about 20% of the overall portfolio.\nThis is nothing starting and most organizations focus on their highest risks, sometimes to the detriment of others. So nothing earth-shattering there.\nHowever, where the 80/20 rule really helps is where it comes to the mitigation measures. If you look at your risk mitigation plans, you will see that there are (or could be) mitigation measures that can deal with more than one threat. For example, having insurance might help offset the potential impact of both destruction from flooding and damage to equipment by an inattentive employee. A robust, diverse and flexible supply chain helps you deal with the collapse of a vital supplier and weatehr delays casues by regulatry changes.\nSo you should be able to find a few mitigation measures that have a disproportionate effect limiting your risk.\nAnd when you’re overstretched, under resourced and short of time and budget, getting 80% of your results from 20% of your activity will be a real game-changer. So why not give it a try.\n*On a personal note, I’m having to take some of this 80 / 20 advice myself and that means stepping away from the blog for a bit. *\n*I get an enormous amount of enjoyment trying to wrestle ideas into shape or taking something complicated and simplifying it. But almost four years , close to 100 posts and two books, I’ve covered a lot of what I set out to do. These days, the blog is mostly for enjoyment and out of habit: it doesn’t really do anything as far as helping me achieve my other goals. That puts it in my 80% of things that aren’t a good use of time. * (\nSo I’m going to take a break from the risk blogging while I concentrate on these other projects. Meanwhile, there’s plenty more in the blog archives or on the projects page to help you out with your risk management challenges.\nSee you soon (and stay safe)!\nPhoto by Taisiia Shestopal on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2021/01/11/80-20-your-risk-management/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThis is a very short post which should work because it’s a very simple idea. Obviously, I’m a fan of simple (\u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/02/04/kiss-easy-to-say-harder-to-achieve/\"\u003ethis is KISS risk management after all\u003c/a\u003e) but, as with lots of simple ideas, the trick is sticking to the idea and seeing it through without getting distracted.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 id=\"-listen-to-a-recording-of-this-post-\"\u003e🎧 Listen to a recording of this post 🎧\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe idea is that you use the Pareto principle, or 80 / 20 rule, when you’re thinking about your risk management system. In short, the principle or rule is:\u003c/p\u003e","title":"80 / 20 your risk management"},{"content":"Happy New Year. Sorry this is a grim (stern?) start to the year but this idea bears repeating\n“Let’s wait and see…” ..actually, let’s not.\nLet’s do something about [fill in the risk here] right now.\nThe sooner we start to act, the earlier we’ll understand the situation, the faster we’ll be able to mobilize resources, and we’ll start limiting the damage that will only worsen with time.\nThis speed is essential when there’s a lagging indicator. By the time the metrics show things are getting worse, it’s already bad.\nBut now, all of the benefits of early intervention are lost, and it’s too easy to get overwhelmed.\nOh, and now you need to explain why you did nothing when you had the chance to act early.\nSo when you smell smoke, it means that something’s already on fire. Don’t wait to see the flames ‘just to be sure’.\nWhen there are multiple reports of bribery and people taking kickbacks, don’t wait to see if they’re related – you already have an FCPA violation.\nOr, when you see this graph, don’t say you’ll think about taking additional measures ‘if things get worse.’ (See footnotes.)\nUK COVID cases through December 2020 – Sourced corinavirus.data.uk.gov via Independent Sage\nI can’t think of an event when an early, dynamic response caused any damage or couldn’t be undone with minimum fuss.\nOn the other hand, I can think of dozens of times where warnings were ignored, people ‘waited to see how it turned out‘, and it went very badly. People died. Coastlines were polluted. Companies collapsed. Savings were lost.\nSo, please, act as early and as decisively as possible. And demand the same of your teams, managers, and executives.\nWaiting to see just isn’t worth it.\nFootnote\nAt the time of writing (Jan 04, 2021, 17:00GMT) Scotland has just gone into an extended lockdown and the Prime Minister is expected to make a statement this evening. There is expectation that he will announce additional measures which may be in effect by the time you see this. However, the indications that the situation was getting significantly worse were there in early December. Moreover, apparent efficacy of the November lockdown was illustrated in the data so any decision concerning additional measures could, and in my opinion should have been made in mid-December.\nPhoto by Bud Helisson on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2021/01/04/letss-wait-and-see/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eHappy New Year. Sorry this is a grim (stern?) start to the year but this idea bears repeating\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"lets-wait-and-see\"\u003e“Let’s wait and see…”\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e..actually, let’s not.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLet’s do something about [\u003cem\u003efill in the risk here\u003c/em\u003e] right now.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe sooner we start to act, the earlier we’ll understand the situation, the faster we’ll be able to mobilize resources, and we’ll start limiting the damage that will only worsen with time.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis speed is essential when there’s a lagging indicator. By the time the metrics show things are getting worse, it’s already bad.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Lets’s wait and see…"},{"content":"Don’t worry, that’s not a typo.\nNor does it mean that you’ve missed a whole year (although we probably all feel like we could have done with a little less 2020).\nBut I want you to imagine for a second that it’s almost January 2022.\nWhy?\nWell, although we’re all going to probably feel a lot better psychologically in a few weeks time, the fact is that the situation on January 1 2021 will look a lot like the situation in late December, 2020.\nIn fact, in the UK and US things might even be worse in January when the post-Christmas spike hits. (And we used to think that Brussels spouts were the worst thing about Christmas dinner.)\nEven though we have several vaccines available, most of us are far down the waiting list and many countries might not see a vaccine until late 2021 or even later.\nSo January 2021 isn’t going to magically make everything better.\nHowever, I’m not here to be the COVID Grinch. Instead, I want to suggest two positive exercises.\nPlan ahead for 2021 The first exercise is to think about what do you need to do next year so you will meet your objectives and end 2021 in a strong position. Even though we’ll go into the New Year with a lot of positive news, we’re still operating under COVID-rules so let’s plan accordingly. Start thinking about what you want your organization to look like when you get to January 2022.\nStart with a review of this year to get ready for 2021. That’s going to help you look at the bigger risk issues that you need to take into consideration and to identify lessons learned from 2021 that need to be applied.\nNext, get operational. Take a look at the ‘Operating under COVID-19 constraints’ webinar I did back in April (It’s on the COVID resources page about a 1/3 way down). The situation you’re facing now will be different from back then but re-run that exercise and think about what your operating environment will look like through 2021.\nMaybe you can stick with what you’ve got in place now.\nMaybe, you’ll need to make changes.\nWhatever the case, think about your game-plan for 2021 and be proactive.\n2020 was a very reactive year for many organizations. 2021 is time to get back into the driving seat.\nLook back from 2022 The second exercise is to imagine it’s January 2022 and think back to what you will have achieved.\nWhat went your way and helped speed you towards your objectives? What opportunities were you able to take advantage of? What didn’t quite work out? What got in the way of your plans? What hit you from left-field? What else could you have done with the time and resources you had? That’s going to help you find holes – and spot opportunities – in the plans you’ve just built but it will also have a positive effect on your outlook. Similar to an athlete visualizing his or her successful performance, this will help you go into next year with a positive mindset because you’re thinking about 2021 as a successful year.\nFrom my personal experience in the military and endurance sports, the alternative – thinking things are going to be a disaster – is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I have enough failures and DNFs* to go around so there’s no need to test this yourself.\nI realize that seeing the silver-lining can be hard as a risk manager. After all, our job starts with us working out what can go wrong. But we’re also supposed to plan a route through those problems to success so avoid staying in Eeyore mode too long.\nBack to the present This has been a hard year for many people and, sadly, January 2021 won’t miraculously change everything. However, I truly believe that things will be dramatically different in January 2022 but we won’t be able to get there, or to take advantage of those changes, unless we make plans.\nSo why not take some time and think about what you want things to look like in January 2022, and what 2021 will look like when you get there. That way, you can end 2020 on a positive note and set yourself up for success in 2021.\nPhoto by Jeremy Lapak on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/12/28/happy-new-year-heres-to-a-great-2022/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eDon’t worry, that’s not a typo.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNor does it mean that you’ve missed a whole year (although we probably all feel like we could have done with a little less 2020).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut I want you to imagine for a second that it’s almost January 2022.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhy?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWell, although we’re all going to probably feel a lot better psychologically in a few weeks time, the fact is that the situation on January 1 2021 will look a lot like the situation in late December, 2020.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Happy New Year! Here’s to a great 2022!"},{"content":"There’s a lot in risk management where success is achieved by breaking something very large and complex (say, a risk assessment of a whole organization) into bite-sized pieces and risk governance is no different. I’ve written about risk governance in more detail here but I’m aware that the schedule of activities can become a bit overwhelming.\nSo I spent a bit of time in my calendar and Asana, a project management app, the other day, looking at how to set this up once and then let automation do its thing. I estimate this will take about 30 minutes to get things set up. Then all you need to do is follow the schedule, saving you lots of time scheduling individual meetings and, best of all, avoid things getting out of sequence and gumming up your risk governance structure.\nAs a health warning, the video is in almost realtime so, depending upon how comfortable you are with the tools, you might want to skip ahead or play on 2x. However, if this is new, to you I hope that there’s enough here to walk you through the whole process.\nHappy automating!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/12/16/get-your-risk-governance-system-running-like-clockwork/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThere’s a lot in risk management where success is achieved by breaking something very large and complex (say, a risk assessment of a whole organization) into bite-sized pieces and risk governance is no different. \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/08/23/risk-governance/\"\u003eI’ve written about risk governance in more detail here\u003c/a\u003e but I’m aware that the schedule of activities can become a bit overwhelming.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo I spent a bit of time in my calendar and \u003ca href=\"https://asana.com/\"\u003eAsana\u003c/a\u003e, a project management app, the other day, looking at how to set this up once and then let automation do its thing. I estimate this will take about 30 minutes to get things set up. Then all you need to do is follow the schedule, saving you lots of time scheduling individual meetings and, best of all, avoid things getting out of sequence and gumming up your risk governance structure.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Get your risk governance system running like clockwork"},{"content":"We’re getting towards the end of the year and, after a year like this, it’s understandable that we’re trying to wind down.\nUnfortunately, risk management doesn’t work like that so your risk register is sitting there, waiting for some TLC. Those big, scary reds are still there and you know that there’s still a lot to do. There are also a few ambers that you’re concerned about but haven’t quite got around to yet.\nHowever, given the year we’ve had, you and your organization are probably exhausted and it’s going to be hard to mount some big initiative right now.\nSo why not turn things around and look at the bottom of the register?\nTurn things upsides down There are probably a few risks there that need a little attention but don’t require a significant investment of time or resources. These are the lower ambers and high greens that often get ignored when all the attention is on the reds and high ambers. (If these colors don’t maker sense, take a look at this piece on metrics here.)\nSo why not take advantage of this otherwise unproductive period to take a run at a few of these? Draw up the risk manager’s equivalent of the honey-do list: that list of little chores you want to do around the house over the weekend. By themselves, none are particularly significant but in combination, they’re making you feel a bit scratchy.\nSo why not take the next week or two to sweat the small stuff and address a few of those lower ambers and higher greens. Give the bottom half of the risk register some TLC, make some progress in the doldrums of December and come back next year, rested, rejuvenated and ready to get to work on those bigger issues.\nYou might be wondering why there’s a picture of a lizard in sunglasses at the top of the post. Well, it turns out that some days the interwebs won’t cooperate and today, the images I wanted to use just wouldn’t work. Luckily, I did have a picture of Lizzy, my youngest’s best friend. Also, Lizzy is all about the details and she always sweats the small stuff.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/12/10/sweat-the-small-stuff-this-week/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWe’re getting towards the end of the year and, after a year like this, it’s understandable that we’re trying to wind down.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately, risk management doesn’t work like that so your risk register is sitting there, waiting for some TLC. Those big, scary reds are still there and you know that there’s still a lot to do. There are also a few ambers that you’re concerned about but haven’t quite got around to yet.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Sweat the small stuff this week"},{"content":"Defining an organization’s risk appetite and risk tolerance is one of the most significant challenges a risk manager faces.\nI’ll explain why in a moment but it’s important to understand these parameters as this helps managers at all levels understand where they are operating in relation to the organization’s risk /comfort level.\nUnderstanding these limits guides them when they are deciding which initiatives to pursue or kill. Or how much mitigation a risk requires. Maybe it’s what helps them decide it’s time to start pulling out of a market or country.\nIt helps them get a sense of how ‘hot’ the organization is running.\nWithout knowing you risk appetite and risk tolerance, you can’t make risk-based decisions.\nSo why is this difficult?\nHere are four challenges I’ve come across\nDefinitions, always definitions First, the terms can be confusing and can sometimes get muddled.\nRisk appetite is the amount of risk an organization is comfortable with on a day-to-day basis or the amount of upside risk that it wants to pursue. Risk tolerance is the amount of risk an organization can bear for a short period of time. For organizations with a lower risk appetite, the gap between appetite and tolerance is likely to be relatively narrow. Organizations with a higher risk appetite maybe willing to tolerate very high levels of risk for short periods of time. It’s the risk appetite and risk tolerance of the organization, not the individual Second, it’s a very subjective discussion which makes it hard to manage. I’ve said before that risk is subjective – the same situation affects every entity differently. However, the problem here is that the individuals involved in the discussion start to explain their risk own tolerance or appetite, not that of the organization. With a couple of noisy managers at the table, you’ll end up with a corporate tolerance and appetite that is actually theirs, not the organization as a whole.\n“Let’s not write that down” Third, this is one of those discussions that often makes people uncomfortable because they think that accepting risk is accepting that people will get hurt or that the organization will make a loss. It feels like they equate accepting risk with preparing for failure. In turn, this makes them reluctant to write their definitions for risk appetite and risk tolerance down.\n“We have no tolerance for risk” The final but worst outcome is some declaration that the organization doesn’t tolerate risk. Obviously, we cannot live or operate risk-free yet people will still to make this kind of assertion. Unfortunately, it’s not only impossible to live up to but it has two significant knock-on efects:\nManagers are terrified to take any risk which means that opportunities are missed. Risks are not reported which means that these can’t be addressed. In my opinion, taking a zero-risk approach actually increased your risks.\nDetermining your risk tolerance and risk appetite is still a hard discussion to have, even if you don’t face these challenges. It means facing up to what can go wrong and them working out how much of that you can handle. You’re also trying to establish values and limits for elements that can be abstract.\nHowever, this isn’t really any different from assessing risks and we can use similar techniques to support the risk appetite and tolerance discussion.\nI’m going to share a model I’m building to help with these discussions shortly.\nPhoto by Henley Design Studio on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/12/04/risk-appetite-and-risk-tolerance/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eDefining an organization’s risk appetite and risk tolerance is one of the most significant challenges a risk manager faces.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’ll explain why in a moment but it’s important to understand these parameters as this helps managers at all levels understand where they are operating in relation to the organization’s risk /comfort level.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnderstanding these limits guides them when they are deciding which initiatives to pursue or kill. Or how much mitigation a risk requires. Maybe it’s what helps them decide it’s time to start pulling out of a market or country.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk appetite and risk tolerance"},{"content":"I think it’s safe to say that we’re all ready for 2020 to be over.\nThe arrival of January 1st won’t miraculously solve all of our issues but we will be moving into a year where a lot of the unknowns of 2020 are now knowns. That’s a huge relief for risk manager who probably feel like they’ve been playing on heroic mode all year.\n2020 wasn’t a game of Halo, but it felt like it at times\nHowever, now that 2020 is drawing to a close, I was thinking that it’s a good time to take stock. I remembered a piece I wrote a couple of years ago outlining how you can conduct a quick review of your risk management system\nand I wanted to share that with you.\nIt’s a simple, quick way to review your risk management system, to capture what you’ve learned this year and put it into practice for the New Year. There’s a complete guide, templates and a tool to help.\nClick here to go to the piece\nAnd if you’re still stuck, book a call and let’s see if we can work things out.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/11/27/getting-ready-for-2021/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI think it’s safe to say that we’re all ready for 2020 to be over.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe arrival of January 1st won’t miraculously solve all of our issues but we will be moving into a year where a lot of the unknowns of 2020 are now knowns. That’s a huge relief for risk manager who probably feel like they’ve been playing on heroic mode all year.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/96ec09d5_886e3-screen-shot-2020-11-27-at-3.21.28-pm.png\"\u003e\n\u003cem\u003e2020 wasn’t a game of Halo, but it felt like it at times\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Getting ready for 2021"},{"content":"Make sure your contingency plan isn’t based on flawed assumptions. Use this quick checklist to run a health check on your contingency plans.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/11/10/get-your-contingency-plan-checklist/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eMake sure your contingency plan isn’t based on flawed assumptions. Use this quick checklist to run a health check on your contingency plans.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/7c2cb1aa_9a226-screen-shot-2020-02-03-at-05.59.23.png\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Get your contingency plan checklist"},{"content":"*How can you spot the point where risks become events? How do you know you’ve moved from something that might occur to something that is actually occurring? *\nI’d argue that you don’t need to identify the specific point of change, and you’ll waste valuable time trying to spot the exact moment of transition. Most importantly, if you wait to see the transition point, your response will be on the back-foot from the get-go.\nPhase transitions (I): water becomes ice (or steam) Phase transition is the point where a gas turns into a liquid or a liquid to a solid: it’s the point where the state of matter changes. You probably studied this at some point and watched water freeze into a solid, melt back into a liquid and then boil into a gas.\nThis change requires a transfer of energy to transform the substance from its normal state into a different form. For example, in most places, water’s normal state is liquid. We need to heat it to change to gas or cool it to solidify it.\nHowever, you’ll probably remember that this change takes time. Even the most powerful burner will take a minute or two to boil water, and making ice can take hours. There’s an obvious difference when you compare things at the start of the experiment (putting a block of ice on the counter) and the end (mopping up a puddle), but in most cases, there’s not a single, observable moment of change.\nWe can have exceptions. Drop some water into a hot skillet and the transformation seems instantaneous. Similarly, pouring liquid nitrogen over things has an immediate effect. But these are the extremes. Most of the time, the transition occurs over time, and there’s no single moment when the shift occurs.\nPhase transitions (II): risks become events You’ll see the same phenomenon as conditions change and risks are realized, becoming events.\nYou’ll have a period where the risk exists but controls are in place and are effective. This situation is similar to Stage 2 in the Turner, Toft, and Reynolds model I shared here: things are in equilibrium.\nYou can think of this as the organization’s normal state.\nHowever, when a catalyst occurs, the controls become stressed, things start to wobble and we move into the transition phase. This is the same as applying heat or cold to water: we begin to change its state.\nWe’re now into Stage 3 of the model.\nIn an organization, this means that a risk has become realized and an emergency or crisis is brewing. There could be a quick flash or bang, but – like water freezing or boiling – might be some time before the event takes place.\nHowever, here’s the important thing: you’re already in the transition phase. That starts when the controls are overwhelmed, not when the emergency strikes.\nWhy is this important? First, you’ll lose valuable time by waiting to see the emergency or crisis occur. This delay robs you of the chance to be proactive.\nSecond, the effort or energy required to correct the shift increases as time goes in. Water that’s close to boiling needs a lot of cooling to get back to normal. Similarly, an organization that’s on the brink of crisis requires Herculean efforts to prevent the full effects of the crisis from hitting.\nIn contrast, relatively minor measures in the early stages of transition might return things to normality.\nDespite this, organizations still often wait until they are sure that an emergency or crisis is underway before they take action.\nI’d argue that waiting is reckless, bordering on negligence – the earlier the intervention, the better.\nBut waiting to be sure that you’re in trouble poses a much more significant challenge.\nPhase transitions (III): Schrodinger’s Crisis As we noted earlier, the transition from one state to another takes time. But there’s also another really interesting phenomenon at play: at the exact moment of transition, you can simultaneously be in two phases at once.\n“At the phase transition point (for instance, boiling point) the two phases of a substance, liquid and vapor, have identical free energies and therefore are equally likely to exist…[in the case of boiling water] the water does not instantly turn into vapor, but forms a turbulent mixture of liquid water and vapor bubbles.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition\nThis makes it even more challenging to spot the point where the change takes place because, depending on where you look, you will see very different situations.\nYou can see this in many organizations where most things are going well, but there’s one big issue building up steam somewhere.\nInitially, a scandal in accounting only affects the CFO. Meanwhile, over in Operations and Logistics, things are just fine.\nLike Schrodinger’s cat, the organization is in two states at the same time.\nBut unless you do something about your financial issue, everyone is going to become involved.\nAnd you can’t wait until you ‘see’ the transition.\nBy the time the WSJ carries the story on the front-page, or the SDNY politely invites the CFO to an interview, you’ve passed the transition stage. Now you’re deep into the event and you’re on defense.\nThere can be occasions when things just move too fast. Genuine Black Swans can occur, but these are few and far between. You might also have inadequate systems in place to identify changes in the situation. That robs you of timely warning that controls are being overwhelmed and things are getting wobbly.\nBut in the vast majority of cases, the signs of trouble will be observable well in advance. But these get downplayed because everything else is okay or someone decides to wait: ‘let’s wait and be sure that we need to do something.’\nSo what can you do? First, understand what ‘normal’ looks like and what can knock you off balance. Your risk assessment will help with this.\nSecond, put surveillance in place. This helps you identify changes in the external environment and to keep an eye on your controls to see where these become stressed.\nThird and most importantly, **have a proactive mindset **and don’t wait to see the change. That doesn’t mean jumping at shadows and overreacting, but it does mean taking an active role in shaping events instead of hoping that things will work out by themselves.\nPhoto by Anne Nygård on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/11/03/when-risks-become-events/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*How can you spot the point where risks become events? How do you know you’ve moved from something that might occur to something that is actually occurring? *\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eI’d argue that you don’t need to identify the specific point of change, and you’ll waste valuable time trying to spot the exact moment of transition. Most importantly, if you wait to see the transition point, your response will be on the back-foot from the get-go.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Boiling the kettle: when risks become events"},{"content":"","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/10/25/november-is-risk-management-training-month/","summary":"","title":"November is risk management training month"},{"content":"DCDR V2.0 is live. Here’s a quick 90-second tour.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/10/21/dcdr-v2-0-tour-video/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eDCDR V2.0 is live. Here’s a quick 90-second tour.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"DCDR V2.0 tour video"},{"content":"I looked back at some of my degree notes the other day and came across something I’ve been meaning to work on for a long time. (By long time, I mean about 10 years*.)\nIt’s based on two concepts. First, the work that Brian Toft, Simon Reynolds and Barry Turner did with respect to how disasters evolve and how we can learn from the. The second concerned how to differentiate between emergencies and crises. Bringing these concepts together gives us a model or framework for how risks become events and how these events can become disasters.\nThis is a pretty busy diagram so I’ve made a video to explain.\nThere might be bigger, neater idea here, some kind of unifying theory but I’m not quite there yet. However, in my review I did pick up seven takeaways that are helpful whether that’s to help you see these relationships in more detail or as a way to help explain them to others.\nI’ve shared them in the video here.\nI’d love to hear your thoughts, particularly if you’ve found yourself deep in the same academic weeds. Leave a comment below!\n** Why the delay, you might ask. Well, as always, these bigger ideas take me a while to nail down. With respect to Turner, Toft and Reynolds, I think there’s a cleaner model than the one I’ve shared here but I can’t get there quite yet. However, rather than waiting another few years to get there, I think that sharing the ideas now might help them come into focus.*\nHowever, in this instance, there’s another reason for the delay.* *I tried to make the case that you can combine these ideas in an essay I submitted as part of my degree. Unfortunately, this was a little too off-piste and I was told the resubmit the essay which meant that I wouldn’t get a distinction, no matter how good my other grades were. *\nClearly it took me a while to get over that…. : )\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/10/12/seven-takeaways-from-reviewing-my-degree-notes/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI looked back at some of my degree notes the other day and came across something I’ve been meaning to work on for a long time. (By long time, I mean about 10 years*.)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s based on two concepts. First, the work that Brian Toft, Simon Reynolds and Barry Turner did with respect to how disasters evolve and how we can learn from the. The second concerned how to differentiate between emergencies and crises. Bringing these concepts together gives us a model or framework for how risks become events and how these events can become disasters.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Seven takeaways from reviewing my degree notes"},{"content":"We seem to be pretty bad at talking to one another right now. Subjects where you might expect some general agreement with maybe a slight difference on the edges become die-in-the-ditch arguments. Arguments that rapidly spiral into unrelated areas of increasing vitriol.\nIf you’re talking about sports, then that’s fine: we don’t expect Yankees or Red Sox fans to agree. However, we need a way to have a measured debate when talking about public safety, national security, or healthcare issues. I believe that we can achieve that by improving the deficit model for risk communications. (There’s a primer on risk perception and communications here if you’re not familiar with the topic.)\nChallenges to discussion Significant challenges stand between us and cool-headed discussion on a host of topics: professional commentators in the media, online trolls, and special interest groups all exist to exaggerate, slant, or obfuscate matters. I don’t want to tackle these here, although it is worth noting that risk managers and risk communicators will face this final issue in particular. If you’ve had to discuss climate change with someone from the oil and gas industry, you’ll know what I mean.\nSo I’m not going to try to deal with those difficulties here but, there is one area where I think we can make significant improvements in how we approach contentious discussions.\nKnowledge versus ignorance Put simply, we need to change how we think about knowledge versus ignorance. Somewhere along the way, we’ve started to equate these with different, less helpful terms. So we now see knowledge as equating to smart and ignorance associated with being dumb. That’s sometimes the case, but these concepts don’t relate that way.\nDomain knowledge means having a good grasp of a specific area of expertise. Some areas – quantum mechanics, AI, deciphering the Dead Sea Scrolls, even parts of risk management – require a high level of intelligence to acquire that domain knowledge, but that’s not always the case. All of us know someone of average intelligence with an in-depth knowledge of plants, a sports team, or the town’s history. Their domain knowledge isn’t representative of their intelligence: they might not be super-smart, but they are very knowledgeable in that one area.\nConversely, if King Solomon or Benjamin Franklin magically appeared in today’s world, there would be a lot they didn’t understand: they’d lack knowledge. Their intelligence, on the other hand, would be unaffected. In other words, they’d be ignorant but still intelligent. So equating a lack of knowledge with stupidity is wrong. Ignorance of a topic doesn’t make you stupid.\nBut it’s too easy for the knowledgeable to condescend to the ignorant: calling the other side ‘stupid’ prevents a meaningful dialogue. For risk managers, mistaking ignorance with stupidity alienates an important cohort of stakeholders, misses valuable insights and makes people resistant when it’s time to share our findings.\nScientific knowledge versus societal knowledge However, there’s another problem concerning knowledge versus ignorance.\nWe often treat scientific or technical knowledge as the only knowledge relevant in a discussion, but we’ve also identified that people can have deep domain-specific knowledge in non-scientific areas. (Let’s call this ‘societal knowledge’ for now although I don’t love that term. Notably, this isn’t the same as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ which is closer to public sentiment – and therefore less rational – than the individual expertise we’re talking about here.)\nHowever, when scientific and societal knowledge ‘compete’ in a conversation, other problems arise. First, we often feel that scientific knowledge ‘beats’ societal knowledge. Second, there’s still a knowledge gap, but now the scientist lacks understanding. They are ignorant of the societal context (but as we established, not dumb).\nSo we have a host of problems to solve. But how?\nThe deficit model: pros and cons I think the answer lies in rehabilitating the deficit model for communication but, at the same time, tweaking the model to solve some of the problems we’ve identified.\nJust in case you didn’t start today with a spirited discussion of risk communication models over breakfast, the basic concept of the deficit model is that opposition to ideas, particularly scientific ideas, stems from a lack of knowledge. If you can overcome this deficit by educating people, they are likely to become more supportive of an idea.\nThe deficit model’s flaw is that it is too easy for it to become a very hierarchical, top-down system where the minister or man-in-the-lab-coat knows best: they control the information. This control makes it hard, if not impossible, for marginal groups, minorities, or those lower down in society to become involved in these discussions.\nIt’s also very easy to selectively control what information they release to the public. That’s not to say that governments need to share everything, but they shouldn’t try to spin and massage the data when we’re trying to solve public health emergencies. Citizen scientists However, the late 20th century saw the rise of ‘citizen scientists’ in many countries. Individuals could now gather their own information via the web or through improved communications. Not only was information more widely available, but many hierarchical structures were crumbling around the same time.\nNow, people were much more able to conduct their own research to close the knowledge deficits themselves, and they were also able to speak up more easily. This meant that both expert and lay perspectives were included in discussions, moving away from the deficit model and allowing more inclusive, thorough discussions. I think that this is a much more effective approach than the hierarchical deficit model, and there was probably a decent balance at some point around the turn of the Millenium. From hierarchy to anarchy Unfortunately, things have swung in the opposite direction, and we now have become a free-for-all. Instead of a hierarchical system, we have an anarchical situation.\nYou can bring your own ‘facts’, all opinions matter, and every utterance demands to be treated with equal weight, whether there’s any basis in fact or not. The trolls, cable TV agitators, and professional naysayers make a measured conversation difficult.\nSo how can a return to the deficit model help?\nHow to rehabilitate the deficit model I think it starts with a recognition that we have two knowledge deficits: the scientific and societal. The public needs to understand the science, and scientists need to understand the societal perspective. This addresses both knowledge deficits and gives societal knowledge the same credibility as scientific knowledge. Next, we need to stop equating ignorance with a lack of intelligence. Even when it’s not intended, it’s too easy to dismiss people who are ignorant as being stupid or not ‘getting it.’ Recognizing that ignorance is just a knowledge gap – a gap that can be filled – overcomes a significant impediment to productive discussion.\nAs risk managers, this is critical for us as we need to have these productive discussions to develop understanding and to share our findings.\nThe small print Now, some important caveats.\nFirst, equal credibility doesn’t mean equal importance in every case. There will still be times where scientific evidence outweighs the societal aspects. Second, societal knowledge has to be just that: knowledge arising from study and empiricism. It’s not just gathering opposite opinions, asserting false equivalency, or ‘whataboutism.’ Third, this won’t overcome the powerful influence of misinformation. It can be harder than ever to determine what the facts are, which is a dark irony given that we now have more information available to us than at any time in history. Whether it’s due to the repetition of falsehoods or concealing critical information, establishing a set of agreed facts is a challenge. Fourth, we shouldn’t assume that this will always result in agreement. People are more than capable of understanding a topic and still acting in a way that appears irrational. That’s a complex and fascinating issue but the point is that a better conversation doesn’t always lead to a better outcome. Perhaps the result is agreeing to disagree. But at least agreeing to disagree leaves the door open for future conversations, whereas calling someone an idiot does not. These are not insignificant challenges and these difficulties are increasing. An inclusive deficit model I think we can overcome these challenges, but we have to get the right people into the conversation before we solve any issues. And to do that, we need to recognize that there are many different types of domain knowledge and an equal number of areas of ignorance.\nIf we can treat all domain knowledge with the same level of respect, and use an inclusive deficit model to close these knowledge gaps, then we will be in a much stronger position to have meaningful, productive discussions. If nothing else, we need to stop equating ignorance with stupidity.\nAs I’ve mentioned, there are still some significant challenges to pulling this off and I still don’t have answers to all of them but I’m going to keep returning to this topic because I think it’s an important one.\nPhoto by Sarah Kilian on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/10/07/rehabilitating-the-deficit-model-for-risk-communications/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWe seem to be pretty bad at talking to one another right now. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSubjects where you might expect some general agreement with maybe a slight difference on the edges become die-in-the-ditch arguments. Arguments that rapidly spiral into unrelated areas of increasing vitriol.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIf you’re talking about sports, then that’s fine: we don’t expect Yankees or Red Sox fans to agree. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, we need a way to have a measured debate when talking about public safety, national security, or healthcare issues. I believe that we can achieve that by improving the deficit model for risk communications. (\u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/04/03/wdymb-risk-perception-and-risk-communication/\"\u003eThere’s a primer on risk perception and communications here\u003c/a\u003e if you’re not familiar with the topic.)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Rehabilitating the deficit model for risk communications (or why having a better conversation starts with not calling the other person an idiot)"},{"content":"*Asking ‘what is risk management?’ often gets you the trite answer ‘it’s the management of risk’ or we get a list of activities associated with risk management. Neither result is satisfying and we need a better definition that explains the intent of risk management along with some clarification of what this is and is not. Here, I’ve presented some initial ideas on a definition along with four components that should give us a more thorough definition. *\nNot having an essay on risk management itself seems like an oversight on a site about risk management, but it turns out that tackling this a few years in is helpful for a couple of reasons.\nFirst, many the building blocks of what we consider to be risk management have been discussed previously, so it’s easier to refer to back to these.\nSecond, the question ‘what is risk management?’ isn’t as easy to answer as it initially seemed, so anything I wrote before now would probably have been a bit superficial.\nSo although I initially worried that this was a massive oversight, I’m glad that I waited a while to tackle this.\nSo what is risk management? The simple answer is obvious: risk management is the management of risk. (There’s more on risk itself here.)\nWe could then list all of the things that make up risk management to develop a basic definition. So risk management is conducting risk assessments, conducting risk governance, and so on. This is what some definitions will do and it’s not a terrible as a start point. Unfortunately, listing the associated actions is not the same as thoroughly defining risk management. This is the same challenge as not being objectives-led: you can work through a set of actions and produce outcomes, but without a clear purpose, you’re unlikely to achieve your objective. You’ll just be going through the motions.\nSo we need a better idea of what risk management is for – what’s the objective? – if we want to be successful.\nUnfortunately, that’s not as straightforward as we might like.\nBefore risk management, there’s risk Before we get into risk management, we should define risk. Risk is a function of uncertainty (e.g. ‘*risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives’ *(ISO 73)), so risk management is the management of uncertainty. But what do we mean by uncertainty? Uncertainty or fuzziness can come from several sources:\nIncomplete data Things we cannot know or that have no precedent Disagreement between parties Inconsistent data or randomness We can take some steps to reduce uncertainty, but we cannot eliminate it altogether. Some pieces of the puzzle will remain incomplete because data are unknowable, change frequently, or are genuinely random, defying analysis. In some cases, the effort required to gather all the information would overwhelm everything else. Therefore, defining risk management as the elimination of uncertainty is setting ourselves up for failure. And this isn’t just impractical. Without uncertainty, there’s no serendipitous encounter when you meet your soulmate, no surprise parties, or unexpected research breakthroughs. Oh, and no financial markets or start-ups.\nSo we can’t and don’t want to eliminate uncertainty, but we do want to limit it, which gives us part one of our definition.\nRisk management 1 – Improving understanding So instead of managing uncertainty, let’s say risk management should reduce uncertainty as much as practical while accepting that some unknowns will remain.\nBy practical, we mean that we accept that we’re limited by the data available and the resources available to process that data. We also acknowledge that unknowns exist due to either a lack of information, randomness, or because there’s no past-precedent (e.g. a Black Swan).\n**Therefore, within these limits, we can say that risk management’s first function is to improve certainty or understanding. **\nRisk management 2 – Preparing for change Although we’ve established that some uncertainty will always remain, there will also be changes that you can anticipate. These might be scheduled market events, recurring weather patterns, or events that happen with some degree of frequency, such as system failures or outages. These events are not strategic surprises – you know something is very likely to occur – but the time and place are unknown, hence it is a tactical surprise. Preparing for these kinds of events is what we do with our risk assessment process and develop measures to address identified risks using something like the A4T options: avoid, tolerate, treat, transfer, and terminate. These measures help us prepare for, or react to, the change that occurs if a threat emerges or an opportunity arises. Therefore we can say that the second element of risk management is to prepare the organization for change.\n(Note that this is different from organizational change management which focuses on guiding an organization through a process of planned change. Here we are talking about change that the organization had not planned to undertake.)\nRisk management 3 – Preparing for when things go wrong Unfortunately, things can still go wrong, despite all of the preparations we’ve discussed already. Your response to an anticipated event could fail or be overwhelmed, or there could be a genuine Black Swan for which you’re unprepared.\nTherefore, we need contingencies for both the events where we have some idea of what might occur and for those that are wholly unanticipated. For events that we can map out in advance, we can build specific contingencies. These will be scenario-specific and can be very detailed, possibly only requiring a start time and location to initiate. For events where there is greater uncertainty, we can build general contingencies. These are more likely to be a set of individual tools that we combine to develop a specific response to a particular scenario. Because of the higher degree of uncertainty involved, it’s less likely that we can do much about the threat or vulnerability elements of the risk because it’s already underway when we start to respond. Therefore, a lot of this activity will focus on reducing the impact of the event. Similarly, if it’s an opportunity that presents itself, you’ll be looking to maximize the upside.\nSimilar to how the ‘preparing for change’ component rubs up against change management, this starts to overlap with incident management. However, we’re focused here on the preparation, not the execution. When something goes wrong, the risk manager could be the incident manager, but this isn’t inevitable.\nThe risk manager also doesn’t have to be the one to develop these contingency plans – that’s the purview of the subject matter experts – but the risk manager is best-placed to ensure that contingencies are in place to manage planned and unanticipated events. This is similar to the idea that the risk manager doesn’t manage every risk, but she is responsible for seeing that every risk is managed.\nSo the third element of our definition of risk management is to prepare for when things go wrong.\nRisk management 4 – Balancing So far, a lot of what we’ve covered will be fairly recognizable, particularly if you’re familiar with the KISS risk management philosophy and the other articles on the subject. However, this next part is where I’m going get a little over my skis. I want to introduce another concept that I haven’t tackled before, which relates to balancing your risks.\nAs something of a confession, balancing is something I’ve always done informally but, if I’m honest, I haven’t thought about this formally until now. This is an oversight on my part, and I think I was hiding behind the excuse that I didn’t do any technical risk management and that operational or non-technical risks were more spongy. However, that’s probably just a way to excuse my laziness and lack of intellectual curiosity. However, I’m writing mid-COVID-19 and am appalled at our inability – notably the inability of political leaders – to balance (or even compare) risks. I’ve also been working my way through Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Antifragile, which is both through-provoking and provocative. Both of these factors have pushed me to think about this idea of balancing more thoroughly. Finally, because I’m a little late to this party, there’s also the danger that I’m about to present a Great Discovery Of Real Importance, which is actually what everyone else has been doing all along, so apologies in advance if that’s where we end up.\nSo back to balancing\nBy balancing, I mean comparing the upside and downside risks, or risks and opportunities, and then taking appropriate action to get into a position where you are net-positive. In simpler terms, we want our benefits to outweigh the costs. (So technically, this is imbalancing because we want the upside to beat the downside.) This whole idea of balancing might seem like the purview of a Chief Risk Officer, sitting at a desk the size of a tennis court, making weighty decisions with the CEO. (Probably the idea I had stuck in my mind.) And while there’s certainly a lot of balancing and comparison that will take place at the top, it’s not just a C-suite activity.\nInstead, this should extend all the down through an organization so that balancing becomes ingrained at every level. This is similar to the difference between a top-down, centralized risk management system versus a bottom-up, decentralized set-up.\nIn a centralized risk management system, risks are reported and submitted into a single system where a centralized group will determine what’s acceptable, unacceptable, and what measures to take. This group will also look at the overall risk environment to determine if this is in balance or where to make adjustments.\nIn a decentralized system, risk assessment and balancing occur at every level, similar to how departments manage and balance their individual budgets. Departments might not always be able to achieve this – an R\u0026amp;D team might always have a risk deficit – but there’s still an organizational component that looks at the overall risk environment to keep the whole system properly balanced.\nThe optimum set up, where we start to move beyond merely being robust to being what Taleb calls antifragile, is where the downsides are capped but the potential benefits are tremendous. (See a summary here or read Taleb if you have the time, fortitude, and temperament).\nAn excellent example of this kind of positive imbalance is how Richard Branson started Virgin Airlines leasing second-hand 747s from Boeing. If the airline failed, he could return the aircraft and only be out of pocket for the leasing and operating costs up to that point. He capped the downside. However, if he succeeded, as he did, the upside was immense. Hence the original Virgin Airways was antifragile because of this imbalance. It’s also notable that the current – mid-2020 – Virgin Airways is no longer antifragile and is instead extremely fragile due to the downturn in travel because of COVID-19. Virgin has had to take out significant loans to continue operation and [Branson was even offering his personal property as collateral at one stage](https://www.ft.com/content/99d90182-dff3-4638-ba4c-e13ad3686025 \u0026amp; https://www.marketwatch.com/story/richard-branson-offers-private-island-as-collateral-for-loans-to-save-his-airlines-2020-04-20). This would seem to be about as fragile as you can get. So even the antifragile can become fragile.\nSo that’s a long way of saying that risk managers at every level and in every sector, not just the technical ones, need to be actively involved in this balancing process. Therefore, the final element is that risk management aims to balance the organization’s risks, ideally generating an imbalance where the positives outweigh the negatives.\nAnd as a final reminder, I am the laggard here: if this is what you’ve been doing all along, Bravo! And shame on me.\nA more simple definition I recognize that there’s a lot here and too much to include in a glossary or job description, so we need a more straightforward answer to the original question of what is risk management? Therefore, as a start, I’d propose the following: Risk management helps optimize organizations for success by preparing them to adapt to change. The four components of this are: – Reducing uncertainty as much as practical – Addressing identified risks – Developing specific contingencies to address anticipated events and general contingencies for unanticipated events – Building tools to limit losses and maximize benefits (balancing)\nThis definition might need more work, but I think it’s a decent start and certainly more useful than ‘risk management is the management of risk.’ Furthermore, even though there are four activities listed, we now have a unifying purpose putting these into context.\nPostscript. Do we need to define risk management at all? But do we need all of these definitions to manage risk effectively? Not necessarily. In the same way that you don’t need to understand physics to ride a bicycle, there are lots of people managing risk successfully without understanding the specifics of risk vs. threat or ever having opened a spreadsheet. They are effective practitioners based on their practical experience instead of theoretical knowledge. (I was reasonably effective as a security and risk manager for the best part of a decade before I got my degree.)\nSo you can undoubtedly be a practitioner, and a successful one, without an in-depth knowledge of the subject. ‘Instinctive’ System 1 thinking, based on a deep understanding of a field, can be very effective. (“System I operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control.” Kahneman.)\nHowever, there is some benefit to having more in-depth knowledge for a few reasons.\nFirst, we rarely work in complete isolation, so there’s going to be a need to explain things to others. Being able to explain what would otherwise appear to be instinct can be helpful when persuading or explaining things to others. It also helps when you have to teach someone else tools and heuristics (rules of thumb) to build their own expertise.\nSecond, if you move outside of your particular area of expertise, your System 1 thinking might let you down as this can be very domain-specific. Instead, you need a set of frameworks and tools to give you a head start.\nThird, we can build more robust, better models when we codify and refine rules based upon experiential lessons. So instead of starting with a theory and seeing if it fits, we distill our experiences into theories that we then improve and build on. Experience-based theories are also less prone to being too narrow as each experience will have a slightly different context. That means you are less likely to make a false assumption based on a single element. For example, is an athlete successful because they put their socks on in a particular way, or is their success based on thorough preparation, part of which is how they put on their socks? (I would say it’s the preparation but you could come away with the impression that it’s all about the socks if you didn’t take a moment to think about things.)\nIt’s this last part that I think is most important. There’s a lot to be said for relying on proven techniques and heuristics passed down from generation to generation. These have been tested and refined over decades, centuries in some cases, and survive because they’re effective. But, they’re effective in what could have been a narrow set of circumstances and fail when the situation changes. So if all you have are these rules of thumb, learned by rote, you have no way of building a new model to address a different situation without a great deal of trial and error. However, if we pair the timer-worn lessons-learned with their theoretical underpinning, we can establish models and frameworks that will adapt to new circumstances.\nThis is of particular importance as we think back to this core idea of uncertainty, which only increases as systems become more complicated, intertwined, and the outcomes more unpredictable. Therefore, the answer to the postscript is yes, we do need a definition for risk management and an understanding of all the associated components. But that must be coupled with a practical understanding because, as Yogi Bera said, “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.”\nAs usual, this is the first iteration of my thinking and I will come back to this in the future. In the meantime, please leave a comment on the blog: I’d love to hear what you think.\nPhoto by Patryk Grądys on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/09/10/what-is-risk-management/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*Asking ‘what is risk management?’ often gets you the trite answer ‘it’s the management of risk’ or we get a list of activities associated with risk management. Neither result is satisfying and we need a better definition that explains the intent of risk management along with some clarification of what this is and is not. Here, I’ve presented some initial ideas on a definition along with four components that should give us a more thorough definition. *\u003c/p\u003e","title":"What is risk management?"},{"content":"As risk managers, we spend a lot of time working out how to get things done. After all, the risk assessment is just the start of the process. Once you’ve identified your risks and worked out how to address them, you need to get down to work: then the actual management part begins.\nDetermining ownership for many risks will be relatively straightforward and departments will often fight very hard to maintain ownership of risks that fall within their remit.\n(This is why we also need good governance. Even though the subject matter experts (SMEs) are often best placed to manage the risks, there are other incentives and biases at play, so additional oversight helps keeps things on track.)\nHowever, there are always some risks that are left behind. Sometimes the owner isn’t as clear cut. Sometimes, it’s because no-one wants to take on the really thorny, sensitive issues that might create your most significant risks. Sometimes people don’t feel as though they have the capacity. This is the point where everyone in the risk committee will be shuffling their papers, avoiding eye contact, or having to drop off the call ‘because something urgent just came up.‘\nOccasionally, someone will throw you a lifeline. A senior manager could push the risk to the appropriate, albeit unwilling, department, or someone might step up and take ownership.\nUnfortunately, more often than not, you just have to accept that the music has stopped and you are left holding the parcel.\nAt this point, you have several options, including rage, tears, appeals to people’s better natures, and faking illness. However, these seldom work (believe me, I have tried or at least contemplated all of these).\nInstead, I’ve now come to embrace the challenge and call to mind a phrase that someone taught me a few years back.\n“If not me, who? And if not now, when?”\nSo even when it’s not your problem to unpick, it’s better just to grit your teeth, grab it with both hands and get to work. Otherwise, it’s not going to get done, and as the risk manager, the buck does stop with you.\nEven though your job isn’t to manage every risk, it is to see that every risk is managed.\nAt least this way you know that someone (you) is going to take this seriously and address the risk thoroughly, which is better for you and the organization. So when wondering who’s going to pick up that nasty little problem everyone’s pretending not to see, just think, “If not me, who? And if not now, when?”, grab it, and move on. Photo by Ryan Quintal on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/08/05/the-buck-stops-here/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eAs risk managers, we spend a lot of time working out how to get things done. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAfter all, the risk assessment is just the start of the process. Once you’ve identified your risks and worked out how to address them, you need to get down to work: then the actual management part begins.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDetermining ownership for many risks will be relatively straightforward and departments will often fight very hard to maintain ownership of risks that fall within their remit.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The Buck Stops Here"},{"content":"I realized a while back that it can be too easy to mistake ‘simple’ with ‘easy’ and I’ve been concerned that promoting a simple approach to risk management might lead people to think that this makes everything easy. Unfortunately, even though a KISS approach makes risk management easier, it doesn’t do away with the need for hard work altogether. Worst of all, it can be easy to mistake shortcuts for simplification.\nI made the same mistake myself recently with my running.\nI’m hoping to tackle a longer race this fall (although to be honest this seems less and less likely with COVID) and have been looking for inspiration for my training, which I realized really means that I’ve been looking for shortcuts. Like everything, running goes through phases and fads, so there are all kinds of options that promise alternatives to hours and hours of training. But I’ve been running long enough to have seen plenty of fads come and go and, in the end, the same basic principles come up:\nIf I want to run faster, I need more speedwork. If I want to run farther, I need to run longer. If I want to be strong, I need to run up and down some hills. That’s all very simple. It’s just not necessarily easy. sigh Goodbye shortcuts….\nBut I realize you didn’t come here for a primer on distance running, so what has this to do with risk management?\nShortcuts aren’t the answer Well, you might find yourself looking for shortcuts as a risk manager too. And even if you aren’t, your managers will be.\n“That seems like a lot of effort. Let’s find an easier way to do this.” “I just read something in the HBR, and there’s a new technique we can try that will give us the same results in half the time.” “You know, the other CEOs I speak to aren’t worrying about this right now.”\nAll of this is code for ‘find a shortcut.’\nBut the shortcut might not be there or the new fab you follow for a while doesn’t endure and you have to go back to the same basic principles. But that doesn’t mean that this is the easy approach. Instead, simple can be hard.\nAnd when you encounter difficulty, that’s when you’re going to look for a shortcut.\nUnfortunately, there might not be one. Instead, you just need to put in the hard miles, so to speak.\n(It’s worth stressing that there’s a difference between being efficient or innovative and looking for shortcuts. I’m a huge fan of efficiency, and there are often improvements that we can make to processes but that’s not the same a cutting corners.)\nHard problems require hard work The fact is that hard problems don’t lend themselves to easy solutions. And even if the answer is apparent from an early stage, making the decision easy, that doesn’t mean there’s not a lot of hard work ahead.\nSo the earlier you’re able to accept that there’s no easy solution, the better. Looking for shortcuts is often just a waste of time. Time in which the problem becomes bigger.\nI’ve been in the room while we circled the right (but challenging) answer for hours or days, looking for an easier solution. But in the end, we just had to accept that there wasn’t an easy way out: we had to do the obvious, hard thing.\nSo KISS risk management doesn’t mean easy risk management, I’m afraid. There’s still hard work ahead, but the good news is that this hard work will generate the results you want.\nYou just have to put in the miles.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/07/19/simple-doesnt-mean-easy/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI realized a while back that it can be too easy to mistake ‘simple’ with ‘easy’ and I’ve been concerned that promoting a simple approach to risk management might lead people to think that this makes everything easy. Unfortunately, even though a \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/02/04/kiss-easy-to-say-harder-to-achieve/\"\u003eKISS approach makes risk management easier\u003c/a\u003e, it doesn’t do away with the need for hard work altogether. Worst of all, it can be easy to mistake shortcuts for simplification.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Simple doesn’t mean easy"},{"content":"Most of the risk assessment models I’ve discussed before use a basic formula to calculate a value for risk. By adding or multiplying values for the individual factors, you’ll get a numeric value for the risk itself. That’s going to allow you to put things into order, apply a color-code or description. That gives you enough differentiation to start a risk-based discussion or determine where you need to focus your attention and resources.\nThis model works, and it works well so, even though we aren’t weighing risk – remember, our assessment is more like a thermometer than a scale – we have a useable set of values we can use for our decision-making.\nThere’s just one problem.\nWe’re looking into the future and having to think about situations that might happen. Risks are potential events that might occur: if the building is already on fire, we’re not dealing with a risk anymore, that’s an issue.\nAnd the obvious problem with the future is uncertainty. There are very few things that we can forecast with absolute conviction. And the farther out we are trying to look, the less certain things can be.\nSo our risk assessments always have a degree of uncertainty or fuzziness built-in.\nPast is precedent (unless it isn’t) Typically, we use previous events, patterns, and trends to help determine what normally happens, and these data give us some sense of what is likely to occur in the future. That works in the vast majority of cases, the exception being a true ‘black swan’ even where the previous data gives no indication that a catastrophic situation could occur.\n*(As an aside, I know NN Taleb argues that some of this is bunkum and what happened yesterday doesn’t help us predict what’s going to happen in the future. And I agree that yesterday isn’t always a good predictor of tomorrow but in many cases there are patterns that are helpful. As long as we recognize that there are outliers and unpredictable events that exist alongside what’s normal, then we can and should still use history as a guide.) *\nBlack swans aside, previous events, trends, and data give us the input we need for our assessments and this is what we work with the majority of cases. However, there are times when the data aren’t accurate, or we have reduced confidence. So we now have uncertainty about the future, and uncertainty about the data.\nThings get fuzzy.\nLuckily, there’s an app for that or, in this case, a branch of logic and mathematics.\nThis might be one of those times when you’re thinking, ‘I was told there would be no math! What about KISS?’\nWhy we need to think about fuzziness I accept that some of what follows is not as straightforward as a basic *risk = likelihood x impact *calculation. However, it’s worth thinking about fuzziness for three reasons.\nThe first is that this is a real problem that risk managers face all the time, so we need a tool to deal with it.\nThe second reason is that there is a difference between uncertainty and fuzziness. With uncertainty, we might have poor or limited data and that makes decision-making difficult. With fuzziness, we might have very good data, but data that still create a spread. We can use that to help make decisions if we apply the right tools.\nAnd the third reason is that it’s fun because you get to use the word ‘fuzzy’ as a technical term.\nIt’s worth stressing that I’m not a mathematician (hopefully you’ve picked that up by now) but even though what I’m about to cover might seem like a lot of math, it isn’t. The underlying calculations are no more complicated than anything you’d do using something r = tvi in a basic risk assessment.\nBy the way, if you are a math whizz and spot something here that’s incorrect, please let me know!\nI’m going to try to make this explanation straightforward and KISS (as much as you can when you get into this kind of topic).\nFuzziness in the risk assessment The basic premise of fuzziness in this context is that there’s uncertainty in the data because there’s a wide spread of valid values.\nSo the basic calculation might be the same, for example, risk = likelihood * impact, but each factor no longer has a single value.\nRather, we have some uncertainty in our data which gives us a spread of values for likelihood and impact. Instead of simply multiplying the two factors using a single value, we now have to calculate several different combinations.\nThis is what a calculation might look like where we have more certainty and consistency in our data. (I’m using a risk = likelihood times impact and 1 – 5 scale for these examples.)\nLikelihood = 3, Impact = 5, therefore risk = 3 * 5\nThis gives you 15 out of a possible maximum of 25\nThis is the kind of result you are probably used to seeing in your own risk assessments and similar to examples and models I’ve used before.\nHowever, if we have some uncertainty or fuzziness in our data, we might have a spread of values. Therefore, likelihood could be 2 or 3, and impact could be 4 or 5.\nTherefore, risk = (2 or 3) * (4 or 5)\nThis gives you a spread of results for risk of 8, 10, 12, or 15 out of a possible 25.\nNow, instead of having a single value, we have four values with a spread of 7, That’s a difference of 28% which is significant.\nAlthough you probably aren’t as used to seeing this kind of result in your risk assessments, this kind of uncertainty and variation is probably a lot more realistic. If you think about the last time you conducted an assessment and were grading things, you probably didn’t have absolute consensus.\nInstead, you will have taken all of the results and used the arithmetic average (the total /divided by the number of results) to determine a value.\nBut ask yourself, is that really representative of people’s opinions? And how does eliminating the outliers (worst and best case) help with risk management?\nAs a quick, silly example, if I like hot coffee and my friend likes iced coffee, the average is lukewarm coffee, which neither of us enjoys. Therefore, the average might be mathematically accurate but not very useful.\nSo even though working with the spread of values and representing these in your results is more complicated, it should give you a richer, more detailed picture of your risk environment. In turn, this gives you a better understanding of your situation, which should lead to better decisions.\nHowever, this does make things more complicated and, after all, this is KISS Risk Management, so we need a KISS approach fuzziness.\nA KISS perspective on fuzziness First, determine if you have a data set where there’s some variation or maybe a couple of outliers, versus a data set that’s just too scattered to be meaningful. A simple way to do this is to put all the information into a graph or plot the spread. This will let you see if there’s a cluster or grouping somewhere which indicates that you have something you can work with.\nThe lack of a cluster might mean that the question was too broad, that there’s no pattern, or that the data set wasn’t big enough. That’s not a reason to ignore the results, but you might want to look for ways to narrow things down, or you might want to use that information more conceptually instead of trying to force it through the analysis process.\nThe second way to simplify things is to use the median, not arithmetic mean. By using the median, you can establish the central point of the data spread, rather than the mean which is easily skewed by big outliers. You still represent these outliers in the spread, so the over / under (for want of a better term) is still shown, but the value you get will be closer to the consensus of results, not skewed by an extreme value in either direction.\nIf we go back to our hot / iced coffee example but now let’s imagine we surveyed a bigger group. The median helps us see if people are tending in one direction on the scale between hot and iced. So instead of calculating an average of preferred temperatures, which will take us back into lukewarm territory, we can now see if there’s a tendency towards hot or cold. (Although it’s worth noting that you might still get a result that’s in the lukewarm territory.)\nThird, use simple visuals to represent the results. There are several different tools and graphing models that allow you to illustrate a spread. Some are easy to read and intuitive, but others can take a minute to decipher. These graphs are a great way to share a lot of information but make sure that it’s clear to the reader what you’re trying to tell them.\nFourth and finally, ask yourself how much the spread actually matters. With a spread like the one in the matrix example above, if the results all fall under your risk threshold, then that’s an acceptable risk, no matter the outcome.\nBTW, if your threshold’s here, then you’re pretty gung-ho but, you know, YOLO\nTherefore, even though there’s still some variance in the risk, it’s still something that you can live with. For decision-makers, that might be sufficient.\nIn fact, they might be more comfortable with their decision knowing that whatever the outcome, the resultant risk is still acceptable. Similarly, knowing that there are significant uncertainties and a notable spread between the worst-case and best-case outcomes will help them determine the best way to manage that situation. This is much more useful than the false sense of security that a clean, single value based upon the arithmetic average produces.\nIn our coffee example, we just need a rough idea of the ratio of hot to iced coffee to order: we don’t need or expect a single answer that works for everyone.\nI’ve still more work to do As I noted above, I’m not a maths whizz and I think I’m just scratching at the surface of fuzziness and uncertainty here. If nothing else, I need to find a better way to lay this out than what I’ve got here.\nSo there’s also a lot more to do as far as simplifying these concepts and, more importantly, making them practical. I’m going to return to this subject at a later date but, for now, I hope there’s some food for thought here and maybe a couple of things you can apply in your own work.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/07/12/dealing-with-uncertainty-in-your-risk-assessment/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eMost of the risk assessment models I’ve discussed before \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/03/24/risk-assessments-grading-and-metrics/\"\u003euse a basic formula to calculate a value for risk\u003c/a\u003e. By adding or multiplying values for the individual factors, you’ll get a numeric value for the risk itself. That’s going to allow you to put things into order, apply a color-code or description. That gives you enough differentiation to start a risk-based discussion or determine where you need to focus your attention and resources.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Dealing with uncertainty in your risk assessment"},{"content":"Many people have a few smoke alarms dotted around their house and, to me, these are some of the most straightforward set-it-and-forget-it risk management tools you can get. You set these up and then…nothing. You can forget about them until that annoying ‘chirp’ sound wakes you up one night, telling you to change the battery.\nAnd most people will never hear their smoke alarm go off except for those times that their cooking gets a little out of hand.\nHowever, if there were a fire, they’d know about it immediately and be able to react. If it’s a small fire and they have an extinguished, they can deal with it themselves. Otherwise, they gather the family, grab the pets, get outside, and call 911.\nHowever, without a smoke alarm, they wouldn’t have the same amount of time to get out. They might not smell the smoke until the fire had spread all over the house. They might even get trapped inside.\nThat’s a fantastic difference in outcomes you can get by spending just $24.99 at the hardware store. That smoke detector allows you to be proactive, instead of reactive.\nObviously, a smoke alarm doesn’t solve all of our problems but we have a range of other tools that help us move from reactive to proactive: wildfire alerts, shelter-in-place orders, and flood warnings all help us prepare for trouble or take steps to avoid it.\nAnd you can apply these same techniques to help your organization be more proactive.\nStart with your risk assessment Start with your risk assessmentand look at the threat areas you’ve identified. Take each of these and determine the warning signs that would signal that the threat might be developing. That could be anything from the rainy season’s approach, signifying that floods are more likely, to a high ad-spend by a competitor, signaling a new product launch.\nThen you apply your tools.\nHorizon scanning Your first tool is horizon-scanning: looking around you and ahead to see what’s happening. That can be as simple as reading the news and industry publications to specialized services that promise market intelligence. Whatever you use, the idea is to establish a good view of what’s going on – situational awareness – so you can spot those warning signs as far out as possible.\nHowever, you’re going to pick up a lot of noise while horizon-scanning, and there will probably be a few false alarms, so we don’t want to react to every warning sign. So now we add the next level of filters: tripwires.\nTripwires Tripwires are specific signs that tell you that a particular event is headed towards you. Unlike horizon scanning, which tells you what’s happening all around you, the tripwire confirms the event type and that you’re potentially going to be affected.\nAs an example, particular weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico indicate that a hurricane could form. Your horizon scanning picks that it’s now hurricane season and that those conditions are building, so a hurricane is a real possibility. If you’re on the Texas coast, the tripwire is when a storm system actually forms because that hurricane could come your way.\nYou then have a series of tripwires, each of which adds specificity to what’s happening. These can be geographic, tracking the storm’s path in our example, or time-based in the case of something like a hostile take-over. Tripwires can even be event-based, monitoring progress on a piece of litigation. The point is that the tripwires help you narrow down the potential pathways the event could follow.\nDecision-points Next, come your decision points, which is where your contingency plan fits in. Each plan should outline how an event could unfold and what options you have for reacting. These options are called courses of action (CoA), and you should have several different options to help you respond to each scenario.\nHowever, each option requires different time, expertise, and resources to pull together. For example, if one COA in a hurricane scenario is to shut down operations and evacuate, that’s going to require a lot more time and preparation than simply sheltering in place.\nThe point where you need to make a firm decision to follow a specific CoA is called the decision point (DP – sorry this piece is a little abbreviation heavy). So each CoA will have a DP associated with it. It’s important to keep in mind that these DPs will come up at different times. So the DP for a more complicated CoA associated with a more distant tripwire could be weeks out, whereas the DP for something more simple might be only days or hours away.\nTriggers The final tool is the trigger, which is when you initiate that course of action. If things are working smoothly, then the trigger for a CoA is you making that decision.\nHowever, we’re talking about situations where things are going wrong, and there’s no reason to expect even the best-laid plans to run smoothly. So there can be times where events accelerate or change path unexpectedly, blowing right through your carefully laid tripwires.\nThat means that instead of your decision being the trigger, the trigger will be event-based. In a storm, this can be an unexpected landfall, miles from the predicted path. It could be a coup d’etat. In business, it might be seeing your CEO’s name and the words ’embezzlement’ in a WSJ headline.\nShrinking your reaction time In all of these examples, your reaction time might have shrunk from days to mere minutes but, because you had already mapped out a CoA, you might still be able to get onto a more proactive footing. That can be the difference between sheltering in place at a pre-prepared location with food, water, and medical supplies instead of an empty basement. Or getting the crisis communications consultant you already have on retainer to start preparing for the media inquiries that are about to hit you.\nBut, like the smoke alarm in your house, all of these tools give you that precious extra time to grab your fire extinguisher and respond proactively before you’re trapped.\nIf you’re interested in learning more about contingency planning, CoA, etc., there’s a video here where I go into more detail on each of these.\nPhoto by Lucas van Oort on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/06/27/organizational-smoke-alarms-how-to-become-more-proactive/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eMany people have a few smoke alarms dotted around their house and, to me, these are some of the most straightforward set-it-and-forget-it risk management tools you can get. You set these up and then…nothing. You can forget about them until that annoying ‘chirp’ sound wakes you up one night, telling you to change the battery.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd most people will never hear their smoke alarm go off except for those times that their cooking gets a little out of hand.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Organizational smoke alarms: how to become more proactive"},{"content":"I’m sure you’ve heard people referring to COVID-19 as a ‘Black Swan’ – something that no-one could have seen coming – but is that actually the case?\nTerrible though it is, I don’t think it’s accurate to describe the current situation as a Black Swan because we’ve had to deal with highly contagious, deadly diseases before.\nCalling this a ‘Black Swan’ is, therefore, a way to excuse a confused response: ‘how could we have prepared for something that no-one could see coming?’\nHowever, genuine Black Swan events do exist and we need to understand these because the consequences can be significant. It’s also useful to know what we can and cannot do to prepare for Black Swans due to the uncertainty that these involve.\nWhat’s a Black Swan? In his books, Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes a Black Swan as “an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier… Second, it carries an extreme ‘impact’. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact.”\nHis concept was new, but the phrase goes back to the Romans who used ‘black swan’ as a metaphor for something scarce. They didn’t believe that there were such things. Taleb notes that although we now know that black swans exist in nature, we could still gather a lot of data on swans and only have seen white ones. Our data – which could be significant in volume – wouldn’t indicate that swans could be anything other than white. So, when a black swan shows up, “it is an outlier as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.”\nA similar thing occurs with a Black Swan event.\nYour observations and experiences to that point have done nothing to alert you to what’s about to happen, nor that such an event could even occur. There’s no precedent. So, the 9/11 attacks or the first instance of an AI-drive flash crash are arguably Black Swans. These events were both the first of their kind, significant outliers, and had extreme impacts. So there are Black Swans out there, the problem is we don’t know what they are.\nBut an overheated market crashing or a pandemic aren’t Black Swans: we have seen these in the past and have data. So even though your data suggests that these events are rare or unlikely, it’s wrong to say ‘we’ve never seen this before‘ and call these Black Swans. Instead, these are classic low probability / extreme impact risks.\nHow can we prepare for what we can’t anticipate? But given that there are genuine Black Swans, how can we prepare when there’s so much uncertainty?\nTrying to assess a risk where there are so many unknowns is next to impossible. Moreover, even if you have some idea of what might occur, the range of potential outcomes (the fuzziness) is so significant that any mitigation measures will either fail or could cause just as much disruption elsewhere.\nLuckily, this isn’t as impossible a situation as it might seem. Even though we can’t assess the risk, we still have other tools we can use. The first is probably the most common although we might not think so: insurance. If you cast your mind back to the A4T model for addressing risk (avoid, tolerate, treat, transfer, and terminate), this is where the third ‘T’ comes in. We transfer some of the risk via an insurance policy. That allows us to offset any losses (a.k.a reduce the impact) with the insurance payout if the event happens.\nAs an aside, this kind of risk offsetting goes back to the late 1600s / early 1700s, when ships’ cargoes were underwritten by syndicates of investors, the most famous and enduring being Lloyd’s of London. These syndicates were the birthplace of much of what has become professional risk management today. Read Berstein’s Against the Gods for an excellent account of these syndicates and risk and probability in general.\nHowever, risk transfer isn’t the only option available to us.\nEnter the contingency plan We can also build contingency plans in the face of uncertainty if we take an effects-led approach.\nEffects-led, means you’re less worried about the cause of a risk than the effect. You focus on reducing the effects on your objective, even though those effects could have been caused a range of different threats.\nFor example, if my supply chain is critical, I don’t need to know exactly what’s going to trigger a breakdown to understand that any disruption will be catastrophic. Therefore, I can build a contingency plan to help me ride out an interruption, no matter the cause. That might mean that I need to work out:\nHow to maintain a supply of goods in. How to manage the transfer of raw materials from my warehouse to the manufacturing site. What level of materials I need to have in stock to weather an interruption. How to maintain my distribution networks for goods out. If I have contingency plans to address these challenges, I can deal with the effects of the disruption, irrespective of the cause. So whether the road is washed out by weather, cut off by protestors, or there’s a restriction on movement, the effect is the same and I have plans in place to respond. And if something truly unexpected comes out of the blue but has the same effect on my supply chain – a real Black Swan – I’m still able to react.\nHaving a plan is good…\n….but having a functioning plan is better\nIf you have contingency plans, you also need to make sure these work. Get this simple checklist to ensure that you plan is fit for purpose and will work when you need it to\nStill maintain a lookout: you might still spot a Black Swan emerging That’s not to say that I want to remain completely ignorant of what’s happening. I still want as much of a head’s up as possible because that’s going to let me be proactive, not reactive. I still want to establish a horizon-scanning program to keep on top of what’s going on, set ‘tripwires’ to alert me to critical changes, and identify decision points for my contingency plans.\nHowever, even though I want to spot a threat as it’s emerging, I’m going to be more comfortable if I have these contingency plans in place first. And even if the threat is unknown, I’m still managing my risk because I’m addressing my vulnerability and the potential effects.\nTherefore, although ‘Black Swan’ is most often used as lazy shorthand to say ‘it’s really bad,’ or to claim that ‘no-one could have seen coming,’ genuine Black Swans are out there. But the level of uncertainty that these entail makes some of our traditional risk management tools, particularly a threat-driven assessment, ineffective. In fact, we’re just as likely to trigger some unintended consequence if we try to develop mitigation for something that’s so unclear.\nHowever, if we use an effects-led approach and build contingency plans, we will be better equipped to deal with a range of situations, those we can anticipate and those we can’t even imagine, the genuine Black Swans. And remember, this approach also helps with very low probability, extreme consequence events because you’re essentially asking ‘what if the worst-case did occur?’\nEvents like Enron, Deepwater Horizon, the crummy bonds that triggered the 2008 financial crisis, and viruses that jump the species gap remain extremely rare. But they aren’t unprecedented and still have devastating effects.\nMeanwhile, there will be threats out there that we can’t anticipate that will catch us off guard.\nSo whether it’s to deal with a genuine Black Swan, the consequences of sloppy financial oversight, or a pandemic, if in doubt, build a contingency plan.\nPhoto by Sarah Kilian on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/06/14/whats-a-black-swan-why-you-need-contingency-plans/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI’m sure you’ve heard people referring to COVID-19 as a ‘Black Swan’ – something that no-one could have seen coming – but is that actually the case?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTerrible though it is, I don’t think it’s accurate to describe the current situation as a Black Swan because we’ve had to deal with highly contagious, deadly diseases before.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCalling this a ‘Black Swan’ is, therefore, a way to excuse a confused response: \u003cem\u003e‘how could we have prepared for something that no-one could see coming?’\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"What’s a Black Swan \u0026 why you need contingency plans"},{"content":"A while back, I wrote something on the need to speak up, even when it’s hard. That’s something we face as risk managers, but it’s also a necessity in other parts of our lives.\nI’ve also written about how there are risks that are so big and uncomfortable that they’re left in the corner: we pretend not to see them.\nI even wrote a whole piece on Jim Barksdales’ rule about snakes: “The first rule of snakes is, if you see a snake…Just take care of it”. Basically, if you see a problem, don’t stand around staring, debating whether it’s real or not, just deal with it.\nWe have a real challenge facing us right now in America and we need to take action. Moreover, these problems aren’t confined to America: we have inequality and discrimination everywhere. So I’d be a hypocrite if I ignored everything that’s going on and just wrote about risk management in the abstract. After all, what’s the point of having the tools we need to diagnose and fix a problem if we don’t use them?\nAs individuals, we all have two tools available to us: our voices and our votes. I use my vote, but I haven’t been using my voice effectively, which causes three problems. First, by saying nothing, I’m allowing other, louder, more toxic voices to fill the space. Second, inequality, injustice, and racism flourish because of inaction. Not standing up, speaking out, or getting in the way is the same as giving permission.\nThird, I’m a white man, so if I’m not saying anything, it’s too easy to keep boiling things down to ‘them and us’ and continues to drive a wedge between us based on the color of our skin. It’s taken me too long to realize this, even though it could just as easily be a friend, colleague, or even my son I see having the life crushed out of him by police. So I want to speak up to say that I believe racism has no place in our society. We need to root out the systemic racial inequality we have in the US.\nI believe that it’s wrong that so many young black men die in our streets at the hands of the police, and no one is held accountable.\nI believe #blacklivesmatter.\nI have a lot to learn, and I will continue to get things wrong, miss things, and make mistakes. But I think that’s better than continuing to say nothing while we have a “normal” that treats many of our friends, family, and neighbors differently, based on the color of their skin.\n“But we have to remember that for millions of Americans, being treated differently on account of race is tragically, painfully, maddeningly “normal” – whether it’s while dealing with the health care system, or interacting with the criminal justice system, or jogging down the street, or just watching birds in a park.⁣” “This shouldn’t be “normal” in 2020 America. It can’t be “normal.” If we want our children to grow up in a nation that lives up to its highest ideals, we can and must be better.” Barak Obama\nHopefully, over time, I can do better and become part of the solution and not the problem. Hopefully, over time, I can be better and help change our normal. That starts with speaking out.\nI understand that this is not what you were looking for when you can to a site about risk management. I don’t want to abuse the trust you put in me by allowing me to write and share my thoughts on risk. I understand that this is a departure from the norm (albeit I think for good cause) so I appreciate your reading this far. I also appreciate that you might not agree with what I’ve said: after all, this is a minefield whichever you way you move. I’ll have upset some conservatives by being too liberal and some progressives because I didn’t go far enough. White people will be angry that I’m calling them racist and black readers and people of color will be rolling their eyes because I still don’t get it.\nThat’s one of the reasons it took so long to write this and to speak up: it’s surprisingly hard to talk about even though what’s wrong is so clear.\nBut it’s also the right thing to do. All we can ever do it try our hardest to leave things in better order than they were when we turned up. And better to have tried and failed than to never have tried at all.\nI should have spoken up earlier and louder and I regret that. But now I’ve started so all I can do is to keep moving forward and hopefully make things better along the way.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/06/07/practicing-what-i-preach/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eA while back, I wrote something on \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/03/09/speaking-up-is-hard-but-necessary/\"\u003ethe need to speak up, even when it’s hard\u003c/a\u003e. That’s something we face as risk managers, but it’s also a necessity in other parts of our lives.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’ve also written about how \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/01/08/your-biggest-risks-are-in-the-corners/\"\u003ethere are risks that are so big and uncomfortable that they’re left in the corner: we pretend not to see them\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI even wrote a whole piece on \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/07/29/if-it-looks-like-a-duck-or-a-snake/\"\u003eJim Barksdales’ rule about snakes\u003c/a\u003e: \u003cem\u003e“The first rule of snakes is, if you see a snake…Just take care of it”\u003c/em\u003e. Basically, if you see a problem, don’t stand around staring, debating whether it’s real or not, just deal with it.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Practicing what I preach"},{"content":"Just-in-time inventory is the idea that the materials you need arrive just as you need them. This approach cuts down on the cost of storage space and reduces the amount of inventory sitting around doing nothing. A just-in-time approach is very efficient but very fragile.\nIf the supply chain hiccups and inventory gets delayed, the knock-on effects shudder through the whole supply chain.\nJust in time inventory works, until it doesn’t Toyota discovered this in 1997 when a supplier’s factory burned down. Aisin Seiki was the sole-supplier of a critical part Toyota used in the majority of their vehicles, and the fire left them with just two-three days of inventory because of their just-in-time inventory system. Toyota’s recovery, which amounted to an almost national-mobilization of Japan’s industrial base, was incredible and taught manufactures the world over many valuable lessons.\nHowever, this event also highlighted some potential dangers of just in time inventory, lessons we seem to have forgotten as we watch the supply of pharmaceuticals and PPE from China dry up. But we sometimes apply a just-in-time mentality to more than our supply chains, and the one that concerns me most is when we do just-in-time contingency planning.\nPlanning is hard, but necessary I’ve written dozens of contingency plans covering hundreds of different situations. After all, the evaluation plan you have for Libya isn’t going to work in Niger or Nicaragua. Even though the core elements are the same, each one has to be situation-specific, which takes time and effort.\nSo I understand that contingency planning is time-consuming, particularly in larger, more complex organizations. And worst of all (although maybe best of all too) these plans usually sit unused and are never opened.\nTherefore, it’s easy to say ‘let’s not waste time on this now, we can develop a plan when the time comes.’\nEssentially, you want to utilize just-in-time planning.\nHowever, the same challenge exists with just-in-time planning as with just-in-time inventory: you aren’t prepared when something goes wrong and you’re left without the resources you need. Planners don’t need raw materials or pre-built components, but they do need information, expertise, and, most importantly, time.\nBut now that the event has hit, your planning time has gone.\nThere’s nothing you can do to prepare and all you can do is react. I would go as far as to say that just-in-time planning is a fallacy: you can’t realistically expect to have sufficient time to spot an emerging threat and build a plan ‘just-in-time.’\nThis would be like an athlete thinking they could practice just-in-time training when there was no set schedule for competition. They’d almost certainly be caught out each time an event was announced and be underprepared when they hit the start line.\nStart with a playbook So it’s best to prepare basic plans for all the critical risks you’ve identified and some effects-based plans to account for any unexpected situations or Black Swans.\nHowever, these don’t need to cover every eventuality in the most minute detail. There is a time and expense associated with trying to dot every ‘i’ and cross every ‘t’ and you will always be balancing your resources.\nInstead, you can take a playbook approach and map out the critical actions, owners, and timelines for each scenario and identify decision-points and triggers for the likely course of action. This gives you the bare-bones of each plan, which you can then build on as an event emerges.\nImportantly, you’ve already spent some time thinking about the most significant challenges that each course of action might present and how to overcome these. You’ve also had the chance to identify the critical resources and staff you need to line up. Neither of these can be done last-minute.\nGoing back to the athlete analogy, this is like the athlete maintaining a baseline level of fitness year-round. Then, when the event is announced, they train for that specific event and hone their skills to hit the start line at their peak.\nI appreciate that I’m asking a lot when I say you need to add another project to your stack.\nBut the other harsh truth is that the crisis doesn’t care whether you have a plan or not.\nThat’s why contingency planning is essential: we only get one chance to be proactive and to get ahead of things.\nJust in time is just too late Taking a just-in-time approach simply doesn’t work. By that stage, you’ve run out of time to put an effective plan together and you’ll be short on critical resources.\nInstead, try to put aside a little time to map out the kinds of events that could occur and, more importantly, the effects you might experience for those Black Swan moments. Then, put together some high-level playbooks that outline the critical elements of your plan for each scenario. That’s going to give you a head start when the time comes and, crucially, have those hard to find items already in place, and key staff members prepared.\nOverall, it’s actually less work than panic planning at the last minute and remember, if you wait until the time comes, your time’s already run out.\nPhoto by Andy Beales on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/05/21/just-in-time-planning-is-a-myth/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eJust-in-time inventory is the idea that the materials you need arrive just as you need them. This approach cuts down on the cost of storage space and reduces the amount of inventory sitting around doing nothing. A just-in-time approach is very efficient but very fragile.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIf the supply chain hiccups and inventory gets delayed, the knock-on effects shudder through the whole supply chain.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"just-in-time-inventory-works-until-it-doesnt\"\u003eJust in time inventory works, until it doesn’t\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eToyota discovered this in 1997 when a supplier’s factory burned down. Aisin Seiki was the sole-supplier of a critical part Toyota used in the majority of their vehicles, and the fire left them with just two-three days of inventory because of their just-in-time inventory system. Toyota’s recovery, which amounted to an almost national-mobilization of Japan’s industrial base, was incredible and taught manufactures the world over many valuable lessons.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Just in Time Planning is a Myth"},{"content":"I was thinking a while back about the idea of informed intuition: cases when you seem to be trusting your intuition but, in fact, you’re recalling deeper experiences and patterns that help with your risk-based decision-making. As I was building upon this idea, it became clear that I wasn’t onto any thing new but, instead, this has been explained in the work of, among others, Gary Klein and the RPD model.\nI was a little bummed out that I wasn’t breaking new ground but the plus side, this is a real phenomenon that’s worth exploring because it helps you understand when you might be experiencing informed intuition versus simply having a gut feeling. There’s also a nifty model to help you sense-check your intuition.\nHow we think (a recap) As a quick recap, we have two main systems of thinking.\n“System I operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. System II – allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. The operatives of system 2 are often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice, and concentration.” (Thinking Fast and Slow, Kahneman)\nSo, as a gross simplification, System I is closer to what we would describe as reacting or doing and is more subconscious. Meanwhile, System II is the more conscious activity we usually call thinking.\nA great deal of what falls under System I thinking is intuitive and is hard-wired into us starting with fight or flight instincts, but it doesn’t end there. Sophisticated pattern recognition (‘that’s a tree, not a stop sign’), reading, and simple calculations all become part of our System I thinking. These are things we do with little conscious mental effort.\nHowever, even though reading is something that we have to learn, after sufficient practice and repetition, it becomes intuitive System I behavior.\nAnd that’s the key to this idea of informed intuition.\nIt’s when you’ve experienced very similar situations over and over again until you recognize them and identify the appropriate response without conscious effort.\nBut this only applies to situations of great familiarity.\nIf you’ve never watched a game of baseball before, your gut feeling of which is the better team is nothing more than a guess (or the reaction to the hotdog you just ate). You have no experience to draw upon.\nHowever, there can be situations where your experience is hidden and not immediately apparent.\nAn athletics coach may have no knowledge of the game itself but can quickly sense which team is more physically able. Her years spent training athletes have embedded markers of performance and athletic ability into her System I thought patterns.\nTherefore, despite a lack of sport-specific knowledge, she will still ‘sense’ which team is more physically able.\nLuckily, we don’t have to leave everything to our subconscious, and we can sense-check our gut using a technique called RPD – the recognition-primed decision model.\nRisk-based decision-making (A.K.A. RPD) RPD arose from investigations in the 1980s into how people make decisions “under difficult conditions such as limited time, uncertainty, high stakes, vague goals, and unstable conditions.” (Gary Klein Naturalistic Decision Making, 2008)\nA key finding was that on the whole, people weren’t applying systemic risk-based decision-making processes in these conditions but, instead, subconscious factors were much more dominant.\nPaul Slovic, Daniel Kahneman, and Amos Tversky were pioneers in this field, names you might remember from previous pieces on risk perception, biases, and heuristics.\nHowever, there were still times where these subconscious elements produced the ‘right’ decision, an idea that Gary Klein and others developed into the RPD concept:\n“how people use their experience in the form of a repertoire of patterns” to make decisions under pressure. (Klein, Calder- wood, \u0026amp; Clinton-Cirocco, 1986)\nGary Klein and David Klinger wrote a neat summary of RPD here.\nHowever, instead of just relying on our subconscious to identify patterns and tell us what to do, RPD is a “blend of intuition and analysis.” (Klein et al.) So we back up what our gut is telling us with a quick sense-check against a set of parameters.\nThe RPD mental framework based on the work of Klein et al.\nIn their field-studies of on-site firefighting commanders and chess players, they observed that initial decisions driven by intuition were “usually satisfactory.”\nThat might seem like a pretty bland statement of support, but think about the benefit of being able to trust your intuition whenever speed is critical: a factor in both firefighting and playing chess.\nInstead of having to coax your subconscious into revealing the patterns it’s filed away before you can start planning – the more laborious System II approach – RPD gets you a workable solution much faster. When time is of the essence, and the stakes are high, “satisfactory” is probably all you need.\nIn the situations where I’ve seen RPD applied – whether in the military, an emergency, or making a business decision – there was almost always a better, more refined option that came to mind afterwards. However, these other options were usually variations on the approach that we’d already taken. Plus, we would have run out of time and never have reached those conclusions if we had started with a clean whiteboard and a System II approach.\nHowever, before you outsource all your decision-making to your midsection, remember that informed intuition and RPD only work in situations where you have significant experience, and things are familiar. It’s not going to work when the whole situation is new to you.\nSo how much experience is required? Unfortunately, that’s a bit of a ‘how long is a piece of string’ question. You might want to treat the 10,000-hour rule cited by Malcolm Gladwell in Outliers as a very rough guide (although Gladwell himself points out that this is simply an average). In work terms, that’s five years of full-time work, but, realistically, you’re not going to be developing patterns that whole time. Instead, perhaps 8 – 10 years in a field might be the point where your pattern library is sufficiently stocked.\nBut remember, you need to have experienced the same situation to spot patterns.\nSimply working as an accountant for a decade won’t necessarily help you sense that you’re looking at the next big accounting scandal. Similarly, just reading about events will give you some idea of what to look for, but it will take much more effort to embed these lessons into your subconscious.\nHowever, an accountant who has reviewed several sets of ‘cooked’ books over the same period will have developed a much more in-depth knowledge of what shady accounting looks like, and the patterns should jump out more quickly.\nBeware biases One final warning is to be wary of your own biases.\nYou can override your pattern recognition if other biases are at work. This is where the RPD review process is most valuable as it makes you revisit your first response to see if it really fits the situation. If you’re being honest with yourself during the review, the biases should stand out and can be offset, helping you reach a better outcome.\nSo trust your gut (but within limits) Risk-based decision-making can be hard and there will always be times when a pure gut decision works: putting everything on black breaks the bank, the rebels win against overwhelming odds, or a blind leap into the dark pays off.\nLuck is always a factor and even odds of 100-to-one will come up occasionally. However, this is a reckless way to make decisions on the whole.\nSo when there’s time, an analytical, cool, calm, and measured System II approach will let you look at all of the nuance and subtlety that a big decision requires.\nBut when time is tight and the pressure is on, you can trust your instincts to lead you to the right outcome if you’re familiar with the situation and those patterns are filed away.\nAdd the analysis elements of the RPD to sense-check your initial reaction and you will have cut through a great deal of uncertainty and be on your way before you know it.\nPlease note that all of this leans very heavily on the work of Paul Slovic, Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and of course Gary Klein and I would recommend you seek out their work if you really want to dig into risk perception and decision-making. ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’ is a great place to start.\nPhoto by Jeremy Lwanga on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/05/16/trusting-your-gut-informed-intuition-and-risk-based-decision-making/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI was thinking a while back about the idea of informed intuition: cases when you seem to be trusting your intuition but, in fact, you’re recalling deeper experiences and patterns that help with your risk-based decision-making.  As I was building upon this idea, it became clear that I wasn’t onto any thing new but, instead, this has been explained in the work of, among others, Gary Klein and the RPD model.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Trusting your Gut: Informed Intuition and Risk-Based Decision-Making"},{"content":"In Amman, we’re in our 7th week of curfews, homeschooling, and weekend lockdowns, and things are starting to ease up so you can drive, the bigger stores are opening again, and in some people’s eyes, we can get back to normal.\nUnfortunately, as I’ve said previously, I don’t think we’re going back to how things were (‘normal’), and our ‘new normal’ requires some adjustments. Sadly, in some places, we’re treating the lifting of restrictions as an ‘all-clear’ which is only going to make things much worse.\nThe lockdowns were never meant to be permanent, but they were designed to 1) stop the spread, 2) buy time to understand what we’re dealing with, 3) plan, and prepare for what’s next.\nSome places, like New Zealand, seem to have done that pretty well but other places haven’t.\nHowever, assuming that you had some form of lockdown and gained some of the benefits from the three areas above, you can reduce restrictions because you can take measures to address some of the risk. But the operative word is some, and this is where it’s essential to understand what makes up a risk.\nIf we use the construct I prefer, risk = threat * vulnerability * impact, this helps illustrate things more clearly.\nSo the risk is ONLY reduced if we apply those measures that reduce our vulnerability or exposure. The other factors haven’t changed or if they have, not in a meaningful way.\nThinking that this is an all-clear is absolutely the wrong message to take away. It’s a very calculated, managed risk but only if we follow the measures that reduce vulnerability.\nI regularly test this construct when I’m cooking. I get something out of the oven and leave it to cool but then grab it barehanded far too early and get burned. (I do this all the time, which I why I write a risk management blog and not one on cooking.) Sometimes, I remember to grab a cloth or oven glove and protect myself. But it’s just as hot (so the threat is the same), and it would still give me a bad burn (so the impact would be the same). But I’ve reduced the vulnerability. Remove the cloth and I’m back to running to the freezer for ice.\nIf we keep in mind that we can lift restrictions because we’re reducing our vulnerability, then we will be Ok. But if we think that we can lift restrictions and not maintain some precautions, we’re just fooling ourselves and things will go badly.\nI hope that we can use our understanding of risk to help people appreciate this trade-off. I believe that getting this balance right is going to be one of the hardest parts of our way out of COVID-19.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/05/05/this-is-the-balance-were-trying-to-strike/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIn Amman, we’re in our 7th week of curfews, homeschooling, and weekend lockdowns, and things are starting to ease up so you can drive, the bigger stores are opening again, and in some people’s eyes, we can get back to normal.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnfortunately, as I’ve said previously, I don’t think we’re going back to how things were (‘normal’), and our ‘new normal’ requires some adjustments. Sadly, in some places, we’re treating the lifting of restrictions as an ‘all-clear’ which is only going to make things much worse.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"This is the balance we’re trying to strike"},{"content":"I meant to write this piece a few months back, focusing on the first part. However, with the developments around COVID-19, I thought the second point was also relevant and timely. Plus, I thought it might do some good, but I’d love to know what you think. Please send me an email with your thoughts.\nRisk and security managers are often faced with the difficult task of defending the success of a risk management program with little or no supporting evidence. Ironically, the more successful a risk management program is, the less evidence there can be to demonstrate its effectiveness. So this success actually increases the perception that the program is unnecessary: after all, why have an expensive security program when you have few, if any, significant incidents?\nThere will always be some data. The number of people caught pilfering from the company is a hard metric, as is the downtime from an effective cyber attack.\nBut as you move away from the defeat / disrupt end of the protective spectrum towards defense and deterrence, the data become fuzzier, if there’s any available at all.\nThis is where a lot of your program has its effect, but it can be hard to link the reduction in incidents to the effectiveness of the program directly.\n“Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half.” Attributed to John Wanamaker, founder of Macy’s department store\nInitially, there will be ‘before and after’ data to use for comparison, but it only takes a few months for the ‘before’ picture to be forgotten and demands for cost-cutting to set in. Reminding people to think about their LoI (loss on investment) instead of their RoI can be effective. Unfortunately, that’s doesn’t always work and successful programs are often dropped because the lack of incidents is seen as a lack of threat, rather than the result of successful mitigation. The resultant increase in incidents can then be attributed to a lack of competence in the team who are now, in effect, being punished for their previous success.\n(Hey, no-one said this job was easy or fair.)\nWe’re seeing something similar in response to the coronavirus in the US. Movement restrictions, school closures, and social distancing are beginning to help in even the hardest-hit areas. Unfortunately, some are taking this as evidence that the threat was never as bad as feared. Some are even claiming that all of this was (and is) unnecessary.\nThe problem is that the threat is unchanged. And we still have no cure, no vaccine, and limited intensive care beds. Easing restrictions without some other combination of mitigation measures will cause more flare-ups requiring more restrictions. Some view the choice as binary: we are either open or closed, but it’s not as simple as that. Unfortunately, some leaders and decision-makers lack the imagination or creativity needed to think beyond these two choices.\nWhat does this mean for us as risk managers?\nOne, I think **we are in an excellent position to raise people’s awareness of what an effective mitigation program looks like **alongside the dangers of dropping one. We need to be stressing that the absence of incidents does not mean an abatement of the threat.\nTwo, we are creative problem solvers, used to having to determine which of a series of bad options is the least bad overall. This puts us in an excellent position to help our leadership – whether that’s at the organization, community, or government level – to make difficult decisions.\nThree, we understand the need for cooperation and finding common ground. It’s no secret that the US is riven by partisanship but, like all of our big challenges, COVID-19 doesn’t have a red or blue answer. Despite the loud voices that try to claim otherwise, neither party has a monopoly on expertise, competence or good ideas: we need everyone at the table to fix this. I’ve always found risk and security managers to be great at knowing people in all corners of the organization. Let’s harness some of that.\nFinally, we get $h!t done. And if there’s a time for getting $h!t done, it’s now. Phew! Politics, cursing (sorry Mum), and risk management. Hopefully also some food for thought.\nImage from The Simpsons, (C) Matt Groening, 20th Century Studios.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/04/12/the-difficulty-of-proving-a-negative/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eI meant to write this piece a few months back, focusing on the first part. However, with the developments around COVID-19, I thought the second point was also relevant and timely. Plus, I thought it might do some good, but I’d love to know what you think. Please send me an email with your thoughts.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRisk and security managers are often faced with the difficult task of defending the success of a risk management program with little or no supporting evidence. Ironically, the more successful a risk management program is, the less evidence there can be to demonstrate its effectiveness. So this success actually increases the perception that the program is unnecessary: after all, why have an expensive security program when you have few, if any, significant incidents?\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The difficulty of proving a negative"},{"content":"Change is hard, and the transition from ‘peacetime’ to crisis is one of the hardest. Facing the spread of COVID-19, that’s where many of us find ourselves today: struggling to adjust to the reality of what we are facing. That might be personally, within your family, or at an organizational level. However, I can’t think of anywhere that’s going to escape this contagion so, no matter the level, we all have to transition and the faster, the better.\nAgain, I appreciate that this change is hard, but I’ve identified four things that should help make this change from peacetime or normality to crisis mode. I’ve seen these work to great effect in the past so these aren’t just for the coronavirus and work in any crisis situation, but COVID-19 is probable the most significant issue folks are dealing with right now. Apply these wherever you see some reluctance to transition to response and you should be able to start tackling the effects of the virus and prepare for the new normal that we’re all facing.\nThe first and most important step is to accept that you’re in crisis. Until you accept this fact and the enormity of what you’re facing, you won’t have the appropriate mindset to be successful. The most significant barrier to acceptance is your emotions, which often resemble Ross and Kessler’s five stages of grief: Denial / Anger / Bargaining / Depression / Acceptance © Ross and Kessler’s 5 Stages of Grief.\nHowever, until you reach the acceptance stage, you won’t be able to attend to the crisis.\nYou have to push yourself and others to move through these stages quickly and this is something that you can develop over time but people will all process their emotions differently and at different speeds. Importantly, these feelings don’t go away and have to be dealt with eventually, so keep that in mind and provide proper support at a later date.\nNext, you have to** start to take action**. This can be dealing with some quick wins to start the ball rolling, but there are two reasons you need to take action as quickly as possible. Firstly, this formalizes the start of the response and generates momentum. Secondly, this prevents small things from becoming bigger. When you are dealing with something like the spread of a virus with a very aggressive growth trajectory, these early interventions will have a disproportionately positive impact.\nNext, you need to streamline things and strip away anything that’s going to slow you down. The two questions you need to ask are:\nWhat’s essential for survival? What’s essential for your objectives? Once you’ve identified these essentials, you can pause / de-prioritize non-essentials temporarily. That’s going to help you focus on what’s absolutely critical to get your response underway and to protect whatever’s fundament to you, your family, or your organization.\nImportantly, this streamlining also applies to processes, your chain of command or decision-making process, and any red-tape. You need to be fast and nimble in these situations, so get rid of any excess baggage.\nFinally, start to plan for what’s coming next. Even if you have general contingency plans in place, you need to map out how things could develop based on the exact situation you are facing. And make sure you are being realistic: there’s no point planning for the best-case scenario when you’re in a crisis because the best case has gone. Layer the risks from your risk register to this map to identify the ID triggers / decision points that required you to take specific action or that indicate that you’ve started down a particular fork in the path. And make sure you keep track of these triggers and decision-points because your route in will also be your pathway out when it’s time to transition to whatever our new normal looks like.\nWhen you identify an emerging path (i.e. things start happening), then start detailed planning for that scenario and start executing as soon as possible. Meanwhile, you also need to allocate some capacity to develop top-level contingencies for all potential paths, so you are ready to respond to whatever changes occur next.\nThese four steps or Accept, Action, Streamline, and Plan should help you overcome whatever inertia or stasis you might encounter at the beginning of a crisis. The bigger the challenge, the bigger the hurdle to overcome to get started but that’s also when you need to move most quickly. Remember, fight or flight no longer applies because flight isn’t an option: you’re in the arena and have to act accordingly. Similarly, you have to be an active participant in what follows and make success happen. Finally, please remember that you have to act faster than you are comfortable with and throw everything you have at the situation.\n“If People Think We’re Overreacting, That Means We’re Doing It Right” Dr. Fauci, head of the US National Institutes of Health speaking about the response to the Coronavirus in March 2020\nPhoto by Bernd Viefhues on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/03/22/getting-in-the-fight-transitioning-to-crisis/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eChange is hard, and the transition from ‘peacetime’ to crisis is one of the hardest. Facing the spread of COVID-19, that’s where many of us find ourselves today: struggling to adjust to the reality of what we are facing. That might be personally, within your family, or at an organizational level. However, I can’t think of anywhere that’s going to escape this contagion so, no matter the level, we all have to transition and the faster, the better.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Getting in the Fight: Transitioning to Crisis"},{"content":"By now, you will probably have picked up that I enjoy a good old risk assessment. However, there are times when you don’t need a risk assessment to figure out what to prioritize. When something’s staring you in the face, it’s time to take action.\nSo when a real crisis hits, the time for the risk assessment is over.\nSo is the time to ‘wait and see.’\nSo is the time for asking, ‘why me?’\nSo is the time for clever, Socratic arguments trying to bargain your way out of trouble.\nEvery minute spent denying that you need to take action is another minute where the damage increases, and solving the problem becomes more difficult.\nInstead, you need to take action. And not just incremental, ‘lets-walk-before-we-run’ type action. We need to take comprehensive, massive actions designed to overwhelm the problem as much as possible.\nWe need to ‘kitchen sink’ it, throwing everything we have at the issue.\nAs I write this, the Coronavirus and spread of COVID-19 are at the top of my mind, but this concept applies to any crisis.\nThere are two reasons for this.\nFirstly, and most relevant today, is that anytime the effects of something compound, the impact of any countermeasures are exacerbated the earlier these are put in place. Just as the effects of the problem compound, so do the effects of your interventions. Here’s an example using the Coronavirus. (From an excellent breakdown by Tomas Pueyo which you can read in full here.)\nGraph and analysis by Tomas Pueyo\nNotice the significant effects that acting just one day earlier can have. Now imagine that instead, the interventions had occurred two days or a week later. Therefore, there’s an extremely strong case for acting decisively as quickly as possible because you’re going to have a much greater impact on the crisis the earlier you start.\nUnusually, with the Coronavirus, we have a pretty good idea of what to do and what will work. From the influenza epidemic of 1918 through MERS, SARS, and ebola, we have a decent playbook of how to deal with this kind of situation. So although we don’t have a cure or vaccine, we do have a response plan. Whether we have the wherewithal to execute it effectively is another matter.\nBut what do we do in situations where we don’t know the answer?\nIn these cases, we may need to go through substantial trial and error as we try to find a solution to the problem. This is what BP was faced with in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon blow out. The normal well control options weren’t working and there was no obvious solution, so the company, and oil and gas experts from around the world, tried solution after solution until they found one that worked.\nThe problem is that this troubleshooting was conducted sequentially. They started with option A, tried that and, when it failed, moved on to option B. When that failed, they moved on to option C, etc.\nThe problem with this kind of sequential planning and response is that there’s a tendency to start with the easiest option, which also often represents the option of least effort / cost. This leads to a higher likelihood that the first option will fail and imposes a delay before you more on to more serious measures.\nThe problem is that you know it’s a crisis, so the minimum effort and cost option is unlikely to work. All you are doing is adding a delay before you can deploy what’s going to work.\nThis is the second reason for taking massive, immediate action.\nIf you throw as much as possible at the problem as early as possible, then you can significantly shorten the event duration. However, if you try option A, then move on to option B, etc., you can significantly draw out the duration of the event. This means that the cost is much higher because you now have the cumulative cost of planning and executing each contingency, plus the mounting cost of losses and damage.\nHere’s a rough illustration of what sequential planning looks like.\nIllustration of sequential planning – Andrew Sheves\nMeanwhile, if you can ‘kitchen sink’ it and plan concurrently, then you can significantly shorten the time and, subsequently, the cost of the event.\nIllustration of concurrent planning – Andrew Sheves\nThis concurrent approach might look more expensive to start with, and it is because you’re throwing a lot of time, money, and expertise at the problem in one go. If option A is successful, then you might feel that the spend on B and C was wasted. In that case, it would be, but this potential ‘loss’ in B and C is massively offset compared to the cumulative cost of sequentially trying each option. Given that you have no idea what’s going to work, that should be a risk you’re willing to take.\nI appreciate that concurrent planning is a massive burden on resources and time, so this has to be balanced against other essential operations. But remember: there’s literally nothing more important that tackling this issue that you face. It has to be an all-hands-to-the-pump effort.\nRemember, an incremental approach isn’t going to work in these situations. If you think you need a gallon of water to extinguish a fire in the office, throwing it on cup-by-cup won’t work. However, if you douse it with a couple of bucketfuls, it’s going to be out for sure. There will be damage to the carpet and maybe some nearby papers, but that’s nothing compared to allowing it to spread to the whole floor.\n*The ideal is always to prevent something before it happens. The second best option is to spot something coming and be proactive to lessen the effects. But once the event is upon you, the only thing left is for massive, decisive action. *\nAnd remember, once you think it’s time to act, it’s often later than you think. So when you do act, stack the odds in your favor and throw the kitchen sink at the problem.\n“If you find yourself in a fair fight, you didn’t plan your mission properly.” Col. David Hackworth\nMake sure your fight feels unfair.\nStill from ‘This Is Spinal Tap’ – because sometimes you need to go to 11. By Source, Fair use, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=29658499\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/03/14/a-time-for-overwhelming-action/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eBy now, you will probably have picked up that I enjoy a good old risk assessment. However, there are times when you don’t need a risk assessment to figure out what to prioritize. When something’s staring you in the face, it’s time to take action.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo when a real crisis hits, the time for the risk assessment is over.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo is the time to ‘wait and see.’\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo is the time for asking, ‘why me?’\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A time for overwhelming action"},{"content":"In David McKee’s book for children ‘Not Now Bernard’, a young boy tries to warn his parents about a monster in the yard, but they’re too busy to pay attention. All they say is ‘not now Bernard’ and ignore him. In the end, the monster eats Bernard and moves into the house, but his parents are still too busy to notice.\nLook Out, Bernard! Illustration by David McKee\nI don’t think the author meant this to be a homily about risk management, but this will be a familiar refrain if you’re a risk manager. The slot for the update on the risk register gets pushed to one side. Or your data is dismissed out of hand because someone doesn’t like what they’re hearing. Or you simply get shouted down.\nSometimes, you’re literally told ‘not now Bernard’ and told to come back at a more suitable time.\nThe problem is that often there isn’t a more suitable time.\nDr. Li Wenliang “tried to sound a warning that a troubling cluster of viral infections in a Chinese province could grow out of control — and was then summoned for a middle-of-the-night reprimand over his candor.” This cluster of viral infections was the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, which has since spread across the globe and killed hundreds, including Dr. Wenliang. (NY Times.)\nBack in 1986, Bob Ebling and Allan McDonald, rocket engineers at NASA, tried to warn of the dangers of launching the Space Shuttle Challenger in cold weather. Despite being able to assemble the key decision-makers and presenting a compelling, data-laden case, the launch went ahead, and Challenger exploded less than two minutes after launch. (NASA)\nNot every situation will result in such a shocking outcome, but that’s often more luck than judgment. Meanwhile, the risk manager becomes less and less likely (or able) to speak up.\nIt can be easy to ignore a child like Bernard, or to silence a junior doctor in a tightly controlled state. But Ebling and McDonald were senior, experienced engineers speaking up in a take-no-risks culture. (My last ‘not now Bernard’ moment was a couple of weeks ago.)\nSo, unfortunately, there’s no aging out of ‘not now Bernard’ moments. And they don’t get any easier to accept. But you have to stick at it and hope that you, or your organization, aren’t eaten by the monster.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/03/09/speaking-up-is-hard-but-necessary/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIn David McKee’s book for children ‘Not Now Bernard’, a young boy tries to warn his parents about a monster in the yard, but they’re too busy to pay attention. All they say is ‘not now Bernard’ and ignore him. In the end, the monster eats Bernard and moves into the house, but his parents are still too busy to notice.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/b7616804_22ba1-not-now-bernard.jpg\"\u003e\n\u003cem\u003eLook Out, Bernard! Illustration by David McKee\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI don’t think the author meant this to be a homily about risk management, but this will be a familiar refrain if you’re a risk manager. The slot for the update on the risk register gets pushed to one side. Or your data is dismissed out of hand because someone doesn’t like what they’re hearing. Or you simply get shouted down.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Speaking up is hard (but necessary)"},{"content":" You need to fix a fatal assumption\nMost organizations and groups have contingency plans in place for when things go wrong. So do many families and individuals. They’ve spent the time thinking about what to do if someone gets sick, a product launch fails, a vehicle crashes, or there’s a fire.\nThe problem is that most of these plans will fail because they’re based on a completely false and unrealistic assumption.\nThis assumption is so fundamental to the plan, that the whole thing is systemically weak and has little to no chance of succeeding.\nSo what’s the flaw?\nThere’s a rose-tinted, optimist spin on everything and the planners assumed that nothing would go wrong when it came time to execute the plan.\nAll the key people they need would be available. All the communications systems required would be working Everyone would know what to do (despite not having been briefed on the plan) There would be lots of time to make decisions All the equipment and resources required were going to be available and working They’d have no problem getting cash in a hurry Sometimes there would be utterly unrealistic expectation built-in, which I nicknamed the unicorn-powered helicopter: it would solve all your problems on paper but would never happen in reality.\nHere’s the problem with these assumptions: you’re already dealing with an emergency or crisis. By definition, things are already going badly wrong. So why assume that the things you most depend on will be going right?\nKey decision-makers will be unavailable; critical equipment will go down and people won’t have read the plan. The unicorns don’t show up.\nDon’t get me wrong. Personally, I’m an optimist: I think things will work out in the end, the good guys will triumph, and tomorrow will be a better day. Professionally, however, I’m a pessimist. I think about what can go wrong, why and how we could fail, and assume that things won’t work out the way we’d planned.\nHowever, time and time again, in organizations of all sizes and maturity, I’ve come across plans where success hinges on one critical component, a single piece of equipment, one person, or the opposition screwing up. Or where they assume everything will go like clockwork.\nRecognizing the audacity and difficulty of making the movie Avatar, Director James Cameron had crew shirts made which read “Hope is not a strategy Luck is not a factor Fear is not an option” That’s not a bad mantra to follow when you’re developing contingency plans.\nDon’t assume that everything will go like clockwork. And remember, plans don’t just work by themselves: you need to make them work. Consequently, the more realistic the plan is, the more redundancy you have, and the greater the flexibility, the more chance you have of success.\nBut if you assume that everything will go right in a situation which, by definition, is already going wrong, you’ll fail.\nPlan as a pessimist but execute as an optimist. And ditch those unicorns.\nPhoto by James Lee on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2020/01/29/why-your-contingency-plans-will-fail/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYou need to fix a fatal assumption\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMost organizations and groups have contingency plans in place for when things go wrong. So do many families and individuals. They’ve spent the time thinking about what to do if someone gets sick, a product launch fails, a vehicle crashes, or there’s a fire.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe problem is that most of these plans will fail because they’re based on a completely false and unrealistic assumption.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Why your contingency plans will fail"},{"content":"Effective execution is a matter of dealing with scarcity: a scarcity of time, a scarcity of resources, and scarcity of information (although too much information can also cause problems). Tools like a risk assessment help manage this scarcity by prioritizing things to allow you to better allocate resources on what’s most important.\nBut there’s a hidden flaw in this process which often means that resources are misallocated, and the most important things are overlooked.\nImagine for a moment that you’ve completed your risk assessment and you used a basic green / amber / red color scheme to help grade things. The reds will be the most critical, the ambers of moderate concern, and the greens are essentially OK. Eventually, you will end up with a graded set of risks that you can put into descending order of severity.\nUnfortunately, you probably won’t have the resources to do everything on the list. Even if you are well resourced, you can’t do everything at once. So where do you focus your attention?\nIf you’re like most people, you’ll say ‘on the reds’: your most serious risks. This isn’t wrong: reds are your most critical risks and pose the most significant obstacles to your success. However, the problem is that people often know what the reds are, and they have already expended a great deal of time and effort addressing these. In short, the reds are taken care of. Therefore, if you spend too much time focused on the reds, you are merely duplicating effort that has been expended already. Meanwhile, other serious risks – perhaps less severe reds and your ambers – aren’t being attended to.\nSo where should you actually focus your attention?\nFocus your attention on the most significant risks which are receiving **the least **amount of attention.\nThese might be reds, but often it’s the risks that fall into the amber category. Ambers are serious but not quite serious enough to do anything about. The problem is that these ambers still threaten your success and can get in the way of your progress. And if nothing’s done to address these, then a combination of ambers can be enough to knock you off course. Plus, if neglected, your ambers will often develop into reds. So when you’re wondering where you should be focussing your attention, don’t just look at the prioritized list of risks. Also, think about how much time and effort has been allocated already and where. Then identify the most significant risks which are receiving the least amount of attention. (And don’t forget to look in the corners.)\nYour focus might still need to be on reds, but it’s often that second tier that’s starved of attention. And that’s where you need to direct your focus.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/11/24/short-on-resources-heres-where-to-apply-your-focus/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eEffective execution is a matter of dealing with scarcity: a scarcity of time, a scarcity of resources, and scarcity of information (although \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/10/29/too-much-data-can-be-bad-for-you/\"\u003etoo much information can also cause problems\u003c/a\u003e). Tools like a risk assessment help manage this scarcity by prioritizing things to allow you to better allocate resources on what’s most important.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut there’s a hidden flaw in this process which often means that resources are misallocated, and the most important things are overlooked.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Short on resources? Here’s where to apply your focus"},{"content":"“Hi, I’m Andrew, and I have a weakness for data.”\nThere, I said it.\nI love spreadsheets. I love national statistics. I love primary sources.\nI could probably have completed my Master’s dissertation without an extension if I had just accepted that cited quotes were valid instead of looking for all the original sources*. And I don’t need to read the last three years of a company’s annual reports before I have a 20-minute call with them.\nI worry less about being distracted by social media than I do about some data-heavy wonky paper getting me off track.\nBut having too much data isn’t just a distraction. It prevents us from making good decisions.\nSeems counterintuitive right? Surely the more information we have, the better. Well, as it turns out, that’s only true up to a point. Too much data poses two major problems when it comes to decision-making.\nToo much data, too little time The first problem is relatively straightforward. A surplus of data demands an enormous amount of time to process before you have to what you need to make an informed decision. However, time is in short supply so, 1) you only get whatever data there was time to process, not necessarily the data you need and, 2) your decision-making time is curtailed.\nLuckily, you can put a process in place to develop a more efficient set of filters and processes to sift data to speed this up. That should get you the most pertinent data, quickly. Filtering out the noise like this will help achieve understanding and subsequently aid your decision-making.\nToo much data, too much bias The second problem is just as significant but much more interesting as it’s completely counterintuitive.\nThe more data you have, the worse your decision-making becomes.\nHowever, this isn’t the same as the first issue: the amount of data isn’t overwhelming your ability to use it. Instead, the more information you have, the more confidence you have in your decision-making ability. (In games of chance, this gap is called a confidence–accuracy discrepancy which I know because I ended up getting sucked into a paper about that…. I’m serious, this is a real problem!)\nUnfortunately, this increased confidence is coupled with an increase in confirmation bias: the condition where you ignore information that doesn’t support your initial assessment and place a greater emphasis on data that does.\nThe result is that beyond a certain point, the more data you have, the worse your decisions become. So not only does too much data slow down your decision-making, it leads you to make decisions that are of lower quality.\nFinding the Goldilocks Solution But here’s the really hard part: how do you know how much information is just right?\nToo little data and you can’t make an informed decision. But with too much data, confirmation bias kicks in and skews your thinking.\nI wish I could say that five or seven data points are all you need. Unfortunately, I don’t have a magic number to share.\nBut I do have a couple of suggestions.\nFirstly, think about the fundamentals of whatever issue you are considering. Manufacturing costs, product positioning, and competitor pricing might be enough to make some decisions on how to price your new product. You might not need the dozens of other data points.\nSecondly, use data that is at the right scale for what you’re doing. So, if you’re working at a local level, you can focus on data related to your immediate geographic area and things measured in days, weeks, and hundreds of dollars. At a corporate level, you will need a global overview, be thinking in timelines of months and years, and will probably be OK with values rounded to the nearest $10K or even $100K.\nTrying to use strategic data at the local level won’t be detailed enough, and tactical data in the boardroom immediately pulls the discussions down to the tactical level.\nThe golden rule here is that you want to work with the **least amount of the highest quality data **you need to make your decision\nAlso, the number of decisions you are dealing with also has an impact. So don’t try to boil the ocean. Limiting the decisions you’re trying to make also limits the amount of data you need to process. Targeting the top-three risks your organization is facing will help keep things manageable and allow you to reach definitive conclusions. Trying to tackle the complete, 100-item risk register in one go is an impossible goal.\nLess is more (for humans anyway) Don’t get me wrong, there’s definitely a time and place for big data.\nWe benefit from AI’s ability to number-crunch mind-numbing amounts of data to predict the weather, make medicine safer, and to help us find the house that matches our needs. However, this is only possible by removing humans from the loop: we can’t process large amounts of data, and our decision-making can be skewed. So, assuming the underlying algorithm and parameters are sound and ethical, and the computers are fast enough, we can expect good results.\nBut a ‘more is more’ approach doesn’t work for humans.\nIt’s too easy for us to become overwhelmed or to have a false confidence in our decision-making ability when we try to manage large amounts of data ourselves. We can’t (and shouldn’t) outsource all of our decisions to machines so we need that ‘Goldilocks’ mix: having the least amount of highest quality data you need to make your decision.\nThis is a time when less can definitely be more.\nToo much? Too little? Where do you draw the line? Let us know in the comments below. *Managing my time better would also have helped but you get the idea.\n*Photo by Markus Spiske on *Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/11/17/how-less-data-can-give-you-better-results/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e“Hi, I’m Andrew, and I have a weakness for data.”\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere, I said it.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI love spreadsheets. I love national statistics. I love primary sources.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI could probably have completed my Master’s dissertation without an extension if I had just accepted that cited quotes were valid instead of looking for all the original sources*. And I don’t need to read the last three years of a company’s annual reports before I have a 20-minute call with them.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How less data can give you better results"},{"content":"A while back, I felt that pretty much everything was out of sync and I was highly disorganized. There was a growing list of undone things whether that was around the house, at work, with my family, or at the places where I volunteer.\nIt was definitely time for a reorganization.\nA few weeks later, things were back in order (I even had time to write again), and a big part of my reorganization was refocussing on the systems I use for productivity.\nI’m a fan of David Allen’s Getting Things Done methodology and GTD has worked well for me, but it’s easy to fall off the wagon (guilty). So part of my reorganization was to re-read his book to get myself back into the right frame of mind.\nHowever, around the same time, I also read an article in Real Simple by author and journalist Taffy Brodesser-Akner whose productivity approach is the exact opposite of David Allen’s system.\nBrodesser-Akner writes that the idea of the Highly Regimented Woman (who sounds as though she would be a GTD devotee) fills her with dread. Instead, she describes herself as a Highly Haphazard Woman.\nHaphazard maybe but highly productive for sure.\n“In the last year I wrote 12 magazine stories—90,000 words that actually got printed… I did an investigative piece that required twice the number of interviews as usual. I revised my novel…I wrote 40,000 words of another novel and sold that too. I missed no more than two soccer games (younger son) and two basketball games (older)…I threw parties. I organized meals for another mom who hurt her wrist.” The full list is at least twice as long as this excerpt but I’m sure you get the idea – she’s getting it done. How Taffy Brodesser-Akner Thrives on Stress, Real Simple\n(You might be wondering why I’m writing about productivity instead of risk management but don’t worry, I’m getting there. Much as I love productivity and project management, the last thing the world needs is another productivity newsletter.)\nSo which approach is right? More to the point, what does any of this have to do with risk management?\nThe answer to the first part is neither.\nGTD appeals to some people, whereas others thrive in a more free-wheeling environment. However, the real measure of success is the outcome: are you getting the things done that you should? Productivity is a case where it’s about the destination, not the journey.\nIt’s the same with risk management.\nIt’s all too easy to get hung up on the methodology you use to assess your risks. Or the process or standard you’re following. Or looking for the best tool or piece of software, but all of this misses the point.\nThe objective is to understand and manage your risks so you can thrive and succeed. How you get there isn’t as important as making sure you’re getting the information you need to make informed decisions.\nI have a preferred methodology and approach to risk management because I know that it works and it’s simple and straightforward. But it might not be for everyone which is totally fine – I’m not trying to push a specific methodology for risk assessments. All I care about is people being better informed of their risks so they can make informed, thoughtful decisions and be safe and successful.\nSome might take a highly technical, very detailed approach where others might want a light touch and only look at top-level items. Some can pull what they need from an apparently unstructured approach. Whatever the method, the key thing is that they are making risk-based decisions, rather than going with their gut or sticking a wet finger in the air.\nJust be careful that you don’t mistake getting away with it for success.\nYou might have a sloppy, chaotic approach to decision-making and not experience a significant loss or incident. But that’s luck, not judgment. Sometimes, you can get away with plunging headlong into things without a plan, but it usually ends badly.\n“It’s all about the journey, not the destination” is a great new-agey Instagram post and the sentiment does apply in some cases but not for productivity or risk management. In these cases, it’s very much about getting to the destination and delivering the required output.\nSo keep your eye on the goal and don’t get distracted along the way. For risk managers, that means having a clear understanding of the organization’s objectives, the purpose of the risk assessment, and the information that decision-makers need.\nDelivering these results is compulsory. How you get there is up to you.\nAre you a Dave Allen or a Taffy Brodesser-Akner? Let me know in the comments below *Photo by Kolleen Gladden on *Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/11/10/its-the-destination-not-the-journey/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eA while back, I felt that pretty much everything was out of sync and I was highly disorganized.  There was a growing list of undone things whether that was around the house, at work, with my family, or at the places where I volunteer.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt was definitely time for a reorganization.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA few weeks later, things were back in order  (I even had time to write again), and a big part of my reorganization was refocussing on the systems I use for productivity.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"It’s the destination, not the journey"},{"content":"Often, the end of the risk assessment feels like the end of the process and things start to ease off. Unfortunately, this is when the real work begins because, now that you have identified and prioritized your risks, you need to do something about them.\nThere are several options when it comes to dealing with a risk but it’s risk treatments I want to focus on here. These often go askew when mitigation measures aren’t designed carefully. This wastes resources and the risks aren’t reduced.\nOne way to avoid this is to use SMART goal planning process to ensure that your risk mitigation measures are going to be effective and properly implemented.\nGeorge T. Doran coined the SMART concept in a 1981 essay in which he identified five criteria key to writing meaning objectives. These have slowly developed over the years to mean:\nS — specific\nM — measurable\nA — achievable\nR — relevant\nT — time-bound\n“There’s a S.M.A.R.T. way to write management’s goals and objectives” by George T. Doran in 1981 in Management Review\nThis concept is widely used in business so will be familiar to many, but how can we apply SMART to risk mitigation?\nSpecific The mitigation measure has to clearly define the effect it is going to achieve, the specific outcome desired and which part of the risk it addresses.\nMeasurable Measurement is essential in two ways. Firstly, there should be a metric from the initial assessment that can be applied when you come to recalculate the risk during the risk review. Secondly, there needs to be a way to measure the progress of the mitigation.\nEven when you feel that there are no hard metrics, things like qualitative feedback from customer surveys can help track progress.\nAchievable Mitigation measures have to be both realistic and something that the organization has the capacity and skills to achieve in order to be successful. Ending global warming isn’t achievable. Nor it is reasonable to have a mitigation measure that requires the whole organization to stop what it’s doing.\nInstead, the mitigation measure has to be something that can be supported by the existing capacity of the organization with some additional investment if necessary.\nRelevant Staying relevant is where things become unstuck most often.\nMitigation measures often tackle what people think the problem is instead of the actual problem. (Basically, they haven’t read your risk assessment.)\nSo, instead of using the assessment to understand a risk, executives will rely on their subjective view while developing mitigation measures meaning that the ultimate package of measures isn’t relevant or effective. You have to bring things back to the risk and its components to ensure that the mitigation is going to help manage that particular risk.\nTime-bound Finally, your mitigation measures must be time-bound in two ways: a date when the measures should be in place and a date when you expect to see results. Being time-bound helps the action owner plan implementation of the mitigation plan and give you a sense of when you should expect to see results.\nIf results aren’t observed by the expected time, then you may need to review the risk and re-plan the mitigation.\nBe SMART (and KISS) Too often, the end of the risk assessment leads to a loss of interest in what comes next. This loss of focus usually signifies that the risk assessment is more of a check-the-box exercise rather than part of an embedded, mature risk management process.\nWhatever the case, when mitigation measures aren’t thought out and properly planned, these are unlikely to be effective, meaning that the risks will remain. Instead, ensure that you maintain focus and energy through theaddressphase and use the SMART concept when you are planning your mitigation measure to ensure these are effective. It’s not just SMART risk management, it’s KISS risk management.\n*Photo by Federico Bottos on *Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/09/21/get-smart-about-your-risk-mitigation/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eOften, the end of the risk assessment feels like the end of the process and things start to ease off. Unfortunately, this is when the real work begins because, \u003ca href=\"https://medium.com/kiss-risk/wdymb-address-risks-82c66fe5a7ef\"\u003enow that you have identified and prioritized your risks, you need to do something about them\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are several options when it comes to dealing with a risk but it’s risk treatments I want to focus on here. These often go askew when mitigation measures aren’t designed carefully. This wastes resources and the risks aren’t reduced.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Get SMART about your risk mitigation"},{"content":"Back in his 1962 State Of The Union Address, JFK noted that “the best time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.” He was making the point that the US needed to make harder economic decisions while the economy was strong rather than trying to implement cuts and structural changes during a downturn.\nHowever, this idea extends well beyond economics and is something we should apply whenever there is a difficult decision to make. There will be times where something truly unexpected crops up and we don’t have much chance to plan beforehand but, in most situations, we can plan ahead. The critical thing is that hard decisions are much easier to tackle when you aren’t already in the middle of a stressful situation.\nWhen I first left the Army, I spent most of my time working in places where civil unrest and instability was a big concern. Therefore, a large part of my job was to develop evacuation plans for organizations working in these places. Building evacuation plans – working out how to move a large number of people out of harm’s way where there are multiple variables and unknowns – is one of my favorite assignments.\nThese are big, meaty planning problems but a lot of the parameters are known and fixed so it becomes a time and space exercise which is something I enjoy. Plus I’ve had numerous friends and family members pulled out of tight spots over the years, so I also appreciate the value of a good evacuation plan at a personal level.\nHowever, one part of the process that was always painful was working out who was eligible for evacuation. At first, identifying eligible persons (EPs) seems straightforward. Ask an organization ‘who do you have a responsibility to evacuate?‘ and the first answer is pretty clear: their staff.\nBut what about families? What about a family where a foreigner married a local and they have children. Or the expatriate that’s lived there for 20 years. Where is ‘home’ for her? Is the foreign national you employed in-country an expatriate or a local hire? And if you move expatriate staff back to their country of nationality, do you also have a responsibility to move local staff somewhere safer in the region?\nAnd let’s not even get started on pets.\nThese conversations are clearly very complicated. You have to balance a mix of contract law, duty of care, immigration law, and simply trying to do the right thing for your people. However, these discussions are also very stressful when it becomes clear that some of your senior staff would be staying and some would be leaving. It can also look like the expatriate (white) staff is going to leave the local (non-white) employees behind which adds another layer of complexity.\nIn short, there is no easy way to have these conversations, and these are always hard. (There’s also no right answer to some of these questions, but that’s another post in itself.)\nIt is immeasurably easier to have these discussions before an evacuation is taking place. However, time and time again, this part of the process was deferred because it was too difficult: no one wanted to commit to making hard decisions.\nShelving the decision like this caused three significant issues.\nFirst, the final determination of who and who wasn’t an EP was now going to be made during the actual evacuation. This was going to make decision-making several orders of magnitude more complicated and also slow down the evacuation itself while we worked out who would go and who should stay.\nSecond, delaying the decision meant that no one could plan. I couldn’t plan the evacuation in detail as I didn’t have a firm number of people to plan for. Similarly, the people who were in limbo concerning their EP status – like any locally hired expatriate staff – were unsure of what to do.\nThird, we had started talking about the possibility of evacuation but hadn’t resolved the vital issue of who would and would not be evacuated. This created a great deal of uncertainty and subsequently sapped employee morale, particularly with local staff.\nAgain, there is no easy way to make decisions around EP status. Similarly, JFK knew that there is no easy way to cut government spending. But there’s also no easy way to shutter part of a business. Or instigate pay cuts across a workforce. Or get an aging parent to write a living will.\nHowever, big decisions can be simplified significantly if the deliberations take place when the critical issue isn’t staring you in the face. If you fix the roof while the sun is shining.\nSo when you know that there are hard choices ahead, deal with them as early as possible when things are relatively calm and the time pressure and stress are reduced. And even if you don’t have a specific issue that’s looming, play ‘what if’: think about what might happen and how you could address potential problems.\nBut whatever you do, don’t wait until the rain is coming in to fix your roof.\n*Image by Annie Spratt on *Unsplash.com\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/08/05/repair-the-roof-while-the-sun-is-shining/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eBack in his 1962 State Of The Union Address, JFK noted that “\u003cem\u003ethe best time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.\u003c/em\u003e” He was making the point that the US needed to make harder economic decisions while the economy was strong rather than trying to implement cuts and structural changes during a downturn.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, this idea extends well beyond economics and is something we should apply whenever there is a difficult decision to make. There will be times where something truly unexpected crops up and we don’t have much chance to plan beforehand but, in most situations, we can plan ahead. \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/07/08/decision-points-prepare-for-lifes-big-decisions/\"\u003eThe critical thing is that hard decisions are much easier to tackle when you aren’t already in the middle of a stressful situation.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Repair the roof while the sun is shining"},{"content":"Right or left? The red pill or the blue pill? Speak up or stay quiet? Should I stay or should I go?\nA decision point is a moment when a significant choice presents itself and the decision made will result in a significant change of course that cannot be undone easily. Moreover, that same choice or option is unlikely to reemerge in the future. The essential elements are that the decision is significant, non-repeatable, and non-reversible.\nThe problem is that decision points don’t always announce themselves as clearly as the examples above suggest. Sometimes, the decision point looks a lot like other, similar moments except the context or consequences are very different. At other times, the decision point might get overlooked, mixed in with other less critical choices amongst a flood of activity. So it can be easy to overlook or miss the decision point.\nHowever, sometimes the decision point is allowed to pass by because no one wants to deal with the issue. It’s just too big and scary. Like the most significant issues that lie untouched in the corners, no-one wants to touch it.\nThe problem is that life moves on and the situation develops whether you make a decision or not: your inaction doesn’t mean that everything else is going to pause and wait for you to catch up. As the late Senator John McCain was fond of saying, ‘the enemy also gets a vote’.\nRemember, the exact same circumstances are unlike to reemerge. So deferring a decision means forgoing it entirely which leaves you in a reactive position, susceptible to whatever else is taking place. However, you can spot decision points more quickly and be better prepared to exploit these if you spend a little time preparing in advance.\nMapping The first thing to do is to map out what the potential decision points might be. Sometimes this is relatively straightforward: anything with a due-by date or cut-off is easy to identify and make a note of. Similarly, things with a resource limitation – such as when your fuel is going to run out or, in the case of a business, when your cash will dry up – should be relatively easy to identify.\nHowever, it can be more tricky when things become condition-based – the point when a business has sufficient traction to warrant significant investment or partnership has run its course can be hard to pinpoint. Nevertheless, you can spell out what success or failure might look like and write this down. You know that a decision point is probably approaching when you spot a similar set of circumstances.\nAnother thing you can do is play a game of ‘what if?’. Start with your risk assessmentand use the threat statements to identify the conditions that could interfere with your objectives.\nThen start to ask ‘what if…?’. For example:\nWhat if this situation developed? What signs might there be? What if this were happening? What would it look like to us? What if we had prior warning? What could we do then? What if we had to choose a course of action? How long would we need to make a decision? What data would we need? The exact questions don’t matter as much as going through the exercise to identify the likely decision points for various scenarios. By the end of the mapping process, you will have developed a sense of what decision points might arise, what the lead up to a decision point might look like and what the associated timeframe might be.\nFlags, triggers, and horizon scanning Now that you have finished mapping and have a sense of what the decision points might be, you can move to the next stage: identifying flags and triggers and building an early warning system.\nFlags are conditions that indicate that an event could be about to happen. These suggest that a decision point might be approaching and that you should start preparing to make a decision or react. For example, sustained rainfall in a flood-prone area is a flag that flooding might occur soon.\nTriggers let you know that an event is actually underway. These are the initial stages of the event that should prompt you to make a decision and to take action. In the flooding analogy, a river bursting its banks is a trigger for activating the appropriate contingencies.\nSo flags let you know that something might be about to occur and triggers let you know that the event is happening. One tells you that a decision point is approaching while the other tells you it’s time to make that choice.\nNow you have identified your flags and triggers, the final thing you need for an early warning system is some kind of horizon scanning. This is simply looking ahead as far as you can to see if you can spot any flags or triggers.\nHow far forward you can look is dependent upon a host of factors, but you don’t need to be able to see into the future. All you need to do is look ahead to see what’s coming your way in the next week, month or year, which is often more straightforward than it might seem.\nWe know when hurricane season is. We know when seasonal demand for a product will peak. We will have an implementation date for a new law or regulation. So while there can be real black swan events that leave us thinking ‘I didn’t see that coming’, many significant events are telegraphed in advance.\nHorizon scanning isn’t foolproof, and it’s not always going to be possible to identify all the flags in advance and triggers can be missed. Nevertheless, horizon scanning can be highly effective and buy you valuable time.\nThe alternative is that you rush on ahead, blowing through the flags and triggers, ending up off the edge of the cliff, before you realize you blew through the decision point. By then, it’s often too late.\nIf you don’t pay attention, you might not notice the decision point until it’s behind youImage (C) Warner Brothers\nActive decision making Unfortunately, all of this only works if you have the appropriate mindset: one of active decision making.\nIf you approach things in a passive, reactive way, happy to let life’s currents take you where they will, this won’t work (nor will it probably appeal to you).\nHowever, if your mindset is one of conscious, active decision making, then this approach will help you identify and prepare for decision points so that you are in a better position to take advantage of these when they occur.\n*Original image Photo by Robert Anasch on *Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/07/08/decision-points-prepare-for-lifes-big-decisions/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eRight or left? The red pill or the blue pill? Speak up or stay quiet? Should I stay or should I go?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA decision point is a moment when a significant choice presents itself and the decision made will result in a significant change of course that cannot be undone easily. Moreover, that same choice or option is unlikely to reemerge in the future. The essential elements are that the decision is significant, non-repeatable, and non-reversible.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Decision Points: Prepare for Life’s Big Decisions"},{"content":"One of the things I’ve enjoyed most as a consultant is having the opportunity to learn about organizations from a wide variety of sectors. These have ranged from schools, NGOs and the private offices of high net-worth individuals to Fortune Five oil and gas companies and governments. On the one hand, I’ve discovered that there are considerable similarities in all organizations, no matter their sector or size. However, I’ve also become acutely aware that the things that make the most significant difference – good or bad – are often very subtle.\nHowever, having to learn about an organization in a short time, and having to identify these subtleties is also one of the most challenging parts of being a consultant.\nThis is the critical ability of a good consultant: being a quick study and having the ability to develop a deep understanding of an organization in a short period of time. This understanding will help you pinpoint these subtle differences which are the keys to unlocking a solution.\nThere’s an old joke that a consultant will take your watch, tell you the time and then charge you for it. That’s meant to illustrate how cavalier consultants are, but it points to the fact that sometimes the owner of a watch struggles to tell the time accurately.\nHowever, merely telling the time isn’t enough. That’s useful knowledge. But we also need to understand the context to achieve understanding. After all, knowing that it’s 2:00 pm doesn’t tell us if we are early or late unless we also know where we are supposed to be and when. It’s all about context.\nThis ability to take a contextual view and to achieve real understanding is the difference between an effective and ineffective consultant.\nA good consultant comes in with no preconceived ideas about what the problems or solutions are. They have a comprehensive toolbox of potential solutions but need to spend time figuring out which one is most appropriate. An inexperienced or ineffective consultant – or salesman masquerading as a consultant – will come in with a single solution that they try to force into place. Rather than a toolkit, they turn up with just a hammer meaning every problem looks like a nail. They don’t care about context.\nBut how can you develop an understanding of an organization quickly and effectively? A simple but effective approach is to focus on three elements: where, what and how.\nFirst, you need to know where the organization came from and where it wants to go. Knowing the origin story of the firm, a little of its history and background, will often explain a considerable amount, especially when you get to the ‘how’ question a little later. At the same time, you also need to know where it wants to go as this will tie directly into its objectives, which is critical from a risk management perspective.\nSecond, you need to know what the organization does. But I mean what it really does rather than what it says it does because these can differ significantly. For example, I worked with an oil field services company that was acquiring smaller operators exceptionally quickly. That meant that at the corporate level, their activities were all focussed on acquisitions, not the delivery of engineering services. At the very top, this was an M\u0026amp;A firm, not an engineering firm.\nThird, you need to understand how they do things. What are their processes like? What’s the culture of the organization? What’s their management philosophy? The answers will often reflect what you learned about their history and background. Things that may seem illogical in the abstract make perfect sense once you understand the organization’s past.\nGathering this information is tricky when time is short so you need a process. The first thing you need to do is determine the time available and divide it appropriately. In the case of a risk assessment, this might look like:\n60% – Understanding 25% – Developing the assessment 15% – Delivering and reviewing the results Just don’t be seduced when the project is months long. Within that time are vacations, sick days, and not every day is a project workday. You might only have 12 dedicated work days in a two-month project. Using the breakdown above, that gives you just a week to get to know the organization insides and out.\nOnce you’ve allocated your time, start by developing a 30,000-foot view of the organization: read annual reports, the ‘About Us’ page of their site, news reports. From there, drill down into the annual strategy, and the processes, procedures, and other operational documents.\nThis 30,000-foot view and document review are going to give you a lot of the where – where they came from and where they want to go – and the theoretical version of what they do and how they do it.\nHowever, I say ‘theoretical’ because when you start to conduct interviews, you will discover what that ‘how’ looks like in practice. Interviews are also going to tell you a lot about the culture of the organization and the internal dynamics. These are key to understanding the current state of the organization, but culture and dynamics will also influence the options available when it comes to designing a solution.\nThis is why you need more than one tool in your toolbox, and you need to be able to select the appropriate tool for the job. Remember, it is the subtleties that will make a big difference, so you need to ensure that the solution you are proposing is appropriate for that specific organization.\nAdding context to background knowledge – the where, what and how – is going to give you the understanding of the organization you need. The understanding that’s going to allow you to develop an effective and appropriate solution for the organization.\nSo the next time you need to really need to understand an organization, start with the where, what and how. Be sure to contextualize the knowledge you gather to let you achieve a deep understading of the organization. That’s going to allow you to become a thoughtful, innovative problem solver, and one that’s able to select the right tool for the job.\nWhatever you do, don’t turn up with just a hammer.\nPhoto by Adam Sherez on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/05/28/how-to-understand-an-organization/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eOne of the things I’ve enjoyed most as a consultant is having the opportunity to learn about organizations from a wide variety of sectors.  These have ranged from schools, NGOs and the private offices of high net-worth individuals to Fortune Five oil and gas companies and governments. On the one hand, I’ve discovered that there are considerable similarities in all organizations, no matter their sector or size. However, I’ve also become acutely aware that the things that make the most significant difference – good or bad – are often very subtle.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"They Might Not Want a Hammer: How to Understand an Organization"},{"content":" “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.”\n[W. Edwards Deming](http:// https://deming.org/deming/deming-the-man), US academic and father of the continuous quality improvement movement in the US.* A big part of the risk assessment process is the risk assessment, and a large part of that is usually the risk analysis. The problems is that this involves metrics and math which people often find challenging for two reasons.\nFirstly, the math can be fuzzy and complicated to follow.\nSecondly, there aren’t any apparent metrics to use, especially for non-technical risk.\nI won’t dwell on the first point as this is usually a symptom of a system that’s too complicated. You can quickly solve this by keeping things simple, which I’ve talked about here and here. A robust risk assessment doesn’t need advanced, theoretical math. (And beware any system where the math seems inconsistent, or no-one really understands it. That’s an unreliable system waiting to implode.)\nHowever, what do you do when it seems that you don’t have the metrics you need to complete an assessment?\nOver the years, many people have said something to me along the lines of ‘we don’t have metrics to use for our assessment. We aren’t technical‘.\nThat may seem true, but every organization will have objectives. So the trick is to work backwards from your objectives and think about the data you track to measure progress and success.\nMetrics, metrics everywhere Although you might not have failure rates or LTI (loss time incident) statistics, that doesn’t mean that you don’t have things you can measure. Moreover, you’re probably already measuring lots of things. After all, how else do you measure success?\nSales? Graduations Customer satisfaction? Workplace accidents? Uptime? The number of refund requests? These are all metrics that an organization might track. So even if you started off thinking ‘we don’t have metrics’, you probably do.\nHow do you use these in a risk assessment? The first thing is to remember that you don’t measure risk as an absolute value: it’s not a percentage or a unit of measure. Rather, you’re conducting a comparative process to put risks into order and prioritize these for action – it’s a thermometer. As long as you are using the same scale to assess each factor, you’ll be able to complete an assessment.\nOnce you have your factors, you can drop these into your methodology to get your risk ratings and subsequently put these into order.\nBut what kind of factors? Here are a few examples showing where you put these in the *risk = threat * vulnerability * impact *formula.\nDelays shipping a product (impact) Time a factory might be closed (impact) Sales performance increase / decrease (impact) Number of recorded accidents (threat) Number of refunds/product returns (impact) Number of days with inclement weather (threat) Days interrupted due to inclement weather (impact) Number of firewall attacks identified (threat) Number of firewall breaches identified (vulnerability) Downtime/data lost through breaches (impact) Correlate these with the appropriate values, descriptions, and color codesto complete the assessment. Remember, this doesn’t need to be complicated to give you some useable data, it’s imperative that you avoid complexity.\nRemember, even though your data is relevant and applicable to your business, it’s still a small data set and vulnerable to subjectivity. If you try to make the process too complicated, you are building on top of a relatively weak platform. Even large, comprehensive data sets, such as market history, don’t guarantee accurate results.\nSo please keep it simple. Avoid giving the impression of absolute certainty by getting into single dollar amounts where, in reality, the nearest $100 or even $1000 might be more realistic.\nFinally, avoid weighting factors. Weighting – where you attribute more value to certain factors automatically – is very subjective and puts the cart before the horse by prejudging your assessment.\nThink about it. You need to determine the most significant risk to apply a weighting for the risk assessment. But to determine the most significant risk, you have to conduct a risk assessment…\nYou see where this gets messy.\nAs always, KISS Instead, KISS – keep it stupid simple. Use a standard set of descriptions, values, and colors, whatever works for you. Then apply it evenly to get the most objective results possible.\nThat way, you can overcome the perceived lack of metrics, conduct your risk assessment, and support your organization’s objectives.\nDon’t just have opinions: have data.\nPhoto by Nick Hillier on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/05/20/assessments-without-metrics/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e[W. Edwards Deming](http:// \u003ca href=\"https://deming.org/deming/deming-the-man)\"\u003ehttps://deming.org/deming/deming-the-man)\u003c/a\u003e, US academic and father of the continuous quality improvement movement in the US.*\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA big part of the risk assessment process is the risk assessment, and a large part of that is usually the risk analysis. The problems is that this involves metrics and math which people often find challenging for two reasons.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFirstly, the math can be fuzzy and complicated to follow.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Assessments without metrics"},{"content":"There are two times you get punched: when you’re expecting it and when you aren’t. Sometimes you know what’s coming, but there might also be times where you get punched, seemingly out of nowhere.\nSpoiler for those that haven’t tried this: getting punched hurts, no matter what.\nThe question is, what can you do to make it hurt less?\nIn some ways, knowing you’re going to get punched is worse because you know what’s coming. I’ve only boxed a couple of times, but it turns out that the ring is really (really, really!) small. Half the people in there want to hurt you, and the other half isn’t going to stop them. You also realize that three minutes getting hit by someone feels a lot longer than three minutes of Game of Thrones.\nAs soon as the bell goes, you know you’re going to get hurt. At least when you get slugged out of nowhere, it’s over pretty quickly.\nBut you get hurt in both situations so what do you do about that?\nFirst, you plan and train. If you know you’re going to be in an adversarial situation, make plans and prepare for that. Do your risk assessment, understand what the risks are, and mitigate those. (See? This really is about risk management.)\nSecond, respond. Don’t just stand there getting hit: hit back or run away. Hit back with measures to respond to the threat, protect yourself with mitigation, deploy contingency plans to reduce the impact. (And seriously, running away is always an option. We just call it risk termination.)\nThe important thing is that you’ve prepared so, even if the punch comes out of nowhere, you aren’t as surprised. You knew it was a possibility and you can do something about it. Again, it still hurts at first but you can overcome that more quickly. But remember, this is an endurance exercise. You must prepare for the long haul, so you can outlast the opposition whether that’s a rival, an illness or an economic downturn.\nThird, you have to recover and get back on your feet. You have to get back to normal as quickly as possible because 1) you need to get on with life and 2) you might get punched again. And if you get punched again, you need to make sure you aren’t already in a weakened state.\nSo prepare, respond and recover. Simple, right?\nWrong.\nMost people don’t do any of this. Most corporations don’t do any of this. They don’t do anything because they haven’t been punched in the mouth yet.\nNo doubt, they will have had bad days, but it’s easy to underestimate what getting punched is like until you actually experience it. It’s also easy to forget over time how much it hurts.\nWhen I used to train corporate crisis management teams, people would often ask ‘how do you know when you’re really in a crisis’? There are lots of ways to address that but the simplest answer was ‘when you feel sick.’ Some people didn’t get that but the people who had been in a crisis agreed.\nOddly, it’s a bit like being in love.\nYou think you know what that’s like because you’ve watched a lot of Hallmark channel. But when you actually fall in love, you have the ‘now I get it‘ moment.\nYou have the same with tragedy. You think you’ve experienced hardship until you experience real hardship. It’s a similar, but much worse, ‘aha!‘ moment.\nYou might be watching a loved one going into hospital, unsure of the outcome; your product might be failing and you realize you need to announce massive layoffs; you see the police pull up outside.\nYou’ll feel sick and it’s going to feel a lot you just got punched.\nThe problem is that a lot of people and corporations haven’t been punched. They are underestimating what it’s like and aren’t preparing for what might happen.\nI’m not advocating you head out and look for a fight to see for yourself what it’s like.\nBut I am advocating that you start thinking about what could happen and to prepare accordingly. Remember, if you’re under 30, you haven’t had to work in a bull economy and we are way overdue for a downturn. Someone’s health can deteriorate very rapidly. Markets can disappear overnight (Remember Kodak?).\nLike the ads say, life comes at you fast.\nAt the point when you’ve already been punched, it’s too late to plan. All you can do then is respond in the moment. That’s going to look a lot like a brawl and one you probably won’t win.\nInstead, do something now. Getting punched is still going to hurt but not half as much.\nPhoto by Bogdan Yukhymchuk on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/05/16/get-ready-for-a-punch/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThere are two times you get punched: when you’re expecting it and when you aren’t. Sometimes you know what’s coming, but there might also be times where you get punched, seemingly out of nowhere.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSpoiler for those that haven’t tried this: getting punched hurts, no matter what.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe question is, what can you do to make it hurt less?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn some ways, knowing you’re going to get punched is worse because you know what’s coming. I’ve only boxed a couple of times, but it turns out that the ring is really (really, really!) small. Half the people in there want to hurt you, and the other half isn’t going to stop them. You also realize that three minutes getting hit by someone feels a lot longer than three minutes of Game of Thrones.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Get ready for a punch"},{"content":"Gary Vaynerchuk uses the term micro speed: macro patience to describe his approach to business. This goes a long way to explain the seeming contradiction between his 100-miles-an-hour life and his Zen-like view of when things will come good.\nLooking back on the last two and a half years working mostly for myself, this is a useful mindset for anyone who’s starting out on their own, part of a startup or busy small business.\nHowever, I think it’s also a useful mindset to have for life in general. Something brought home to me by some personal events that cropped up since I started writing this piece. The last week has been frantic and it’s going to stay that way for a while but, at the same time, I’m not going to see any results for months or years.\nHowever, it can be hard to cultivate this mindset for lots of reasons, the main one being that we are hardwired to seek out gratification for what we are doing and the faster we see results, the better. We’ve now exacerbated this tendency by building a whole Pavlovian system which quickly rewards us with a taxi, a pizza or a date for pressing buttons.\nUnfortunately, this complicates things when it comes to meaningful rewards or progress because these aren’t things that happen quickly.\nSo how can you balance tactical impatience with strategic patience? How can you have this mix of micro speed and macro patience? It’s not easy but I’ve discovered that this is easier if you focus on three things: goals, hours and months.\nGoals Goals are the tangible outcomes we are trying to achieve whether that’s for our business, at school, our health or in a relationship. Remember, being rich in itself isn’t what most people want. You want a new house, to pay for your wedding, to clear your college debts or to pay for mom’s medical treatment. Money is just the means to this end. Moreover, by focusing on the outcome, you might discover other paths to achieve your goals along the way. Once you have these goals in mind, then you need to map out the micro-goals (or tasks, actions, or objectives, whatever term you prefer) that will get you there.\nThen it’s time to get after it and this is where we need to think about time a little differently.\nI’ve found thinking about time as either hours or months (nothing in between) is pretty useful.\nHours Because hours are where you get things done. Block off a couple for writing or coding or clear several small, admin tasks in 60 minutes. Dinner with your family or friends: an hour. Working out: an hour. Going to the dentist: an hour . Watching a show: an hour. An hour is a great base unit.\nRemember, even though eating a sandwich only takes 10 minutes, leaving your desk, ordering or making a sandwich and quickly checking the news is going to eat up more time than that.\nBeware of anyone who suggests you build your day on a series of 12-minute blocks. A tiny percentage of people can make this approach work and most people will find that managing their time like this is very ineffective and they fall behind almost immediately. By all means, use an extra 10 minutes here and there to wipe out a bunch of small to-dos but don’t try to build your day that way.\nSo keep it simple and think of your day as a series of hours and plan your activities and desired outcomes – your micro-goals that keep you moving forward – on what’s reasonable in these hours.\nImportantly, the number of hours you have available, when these occur, how you balance family, friends and work (and sleep) is up to you, your situation and your goals. Everyone is different and things will change over time so make up the schedule that works for you today and get on with it.\nSo that’s the productivity aspect but what about measuring progress?\nThat’s where the months come in.\nMonths Why a month? Because a day or week isn’t long enough for most things. Growing your email list won’t happen in a week. Climbing up the Google search rankings and staying there takes months. A/B testing needs time. Remember, the lean startup concept requires you to conduct fast experiments but ones that give you meaningful data. That might mean months because a week of data might be an aberration.\nHere’s the problem: a week can feel like a long time, especially when you are sitting on the hot stove of a startup that’s not taking off and are burning cash. However, you’re putting yourself under a lot of pressure to make progress in an unrealistic timeframe. Sometimes you need to ask yourself if all that worry is helpful.\nThat’s not to say you won’t be busy: those hours each day will be pretty full. But you also need to set realistic expectations about how long progress this will take.\nFinally, thinking in a months-long timescale teaches patience and forces you to develop routines and rhythms to keep going for the long haul. Thinking in the macro (months, quarters or even years) encourages you to plan, build and operate in a way that’s going to give you the time to succeed. Remember, a lot of people’s ‘overnight success’ took them ten years and the journey can be pretty rough.\nThe value of perspective I appreciate that all of this is hard to do and it took me a long time to make this mental shift even though I have a secret advantage.\nI’m old.\nLike really old. Older than Gary V even.\nOk, I’m not quite dead yet but I’m 46 and on my third career (if we even have those now) which means that I’ve got the advantage of perspective. I can look back and see how long things really take which helps put things everything into perspective.\nI recently found myself thinking about pausing work on a software project for six months or so. Six months is well beyond the half-life of most startups and is probably an unimaginable length of time for most people reading this. However, it’s also a project that’s been percolating for over a decade so pausing for six months to get into better shape isn’t so daunting. On the personal side, I’m about to start something where progress will probably take years. Again, that’s easier to cope with when you’re in your fifth decade.\nPeople often say that something’s ‘not a marathon; it’s a sprint.’\nI run a lot and think most things of importance are both: they’re marathons comprised of sprints.\nTo succeed you need both speed and endurance. Your sprints are maximizing how you spend your hours. The marathon is going the distance and measuring your progress towards your goals in months, quarters or years.\nSo use these concepts to help achieve this mix of micro speed: macro patience. Have clear goals, sprint in hourly-long blocks but have a marathoner’s long-distance perspective, measuring progress month by month. That’s going to give you the perspective and routine you need to keep you going until [your ‘overnight’ success in a decade or so.](http:// https://www.inc.com/empact/why-successful-people-take-10-years-to-succeed-overnight.html)\nPhoto by Luke Stackpoole on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/05/09/how-to-think-about-time-to-make-real-progress/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://www.garyvaynerchuk.com/importance-speed-business/\"\u003eGary Vaynerchuk uses the term micro speed: macro patience\u003c/a\u003e to describe his approach to business. This goes a long way to explain the seeming contradiction between his 100-miles-an-hour life and his Zen-like view of when things will come good.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLooking back on the last two and a half years working mostly for myself, this is a useful mindset for anyone who’s starting out on their own, part of a startup or busy small business.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How to think about time to make real progress"},{"content":" “Well, there was the kidnapping. Is that something you’re interested in?”\nIt was our last day of a week-long site security survey. We were meeting with the site manager to wrap up our visit but this was the first time we had heard anything about something as serious as this.\nSo yes, a kidnapping was something we were very, very interested in learning about….\nI have no idea why it hadn’t come up before: we had conducted dozens of other interviews that week and had dozens of pages of notes. However, it almost didn’t come up at all: at this late stage, we were going to skip the interview and go straight into a review of our findings.\nLuckily, our OCD got the better of us and we’d asked if we could just run through a few things first. Otherwise, we might not have learned about this incident which turned out to be quite significant later on.\nInterviews like this – meeting with an organization’s staff and leadership to learn more about what makes the place tick – are one of my favorite things about consulting. You have a unique opportunity to spend time with someone who is a subject matter expert and to learn from them. This helps you prepare a better product but I’ve also enjoyed the opportunity to learn.\nHowever, you can miss this opportunity if you don’t prepare or if you approach the interview with the wrong mindset. Poor preparation makes it much less likely that you will get the information you need and your report or assessment will be weaker as a result.\nHere are the four things I’ve found that make the biggest difference.\nDo your homework and prepare beforehand You need to understand the organization, its structure, critical operations and key terms before the interview. This preparation helps you understand the answers you get but also lets the interviewee see that you’ve prepared and that you value their time.\nYour preparation will also help you spot things that seem out of context. For example, a statement like “we don’t have a business continuity management plan” is noteworthy and worth investigating if you’ve just looked at that plan. You won’t know everything before the interview – this is an opportunity to learn after all – but make sure you have a decent grasp of the basics.\nHave a structure and know what you need to cover The only reason we learned about the kidnapping was that we had asked the site manager the same questions we had used with everyone else. We knew what we needed to cover before going in and had repeated these same questions over and over to get the information we needed. (This can be hard at the time but it’s worth it and over a decade later, I still have a similar question set that I use for tasks like this.)\nHowever, having a structure doesn’t mean that you just march through the list of questions from A to Z. Instead, start a conversation and let the person speak while you keep track of whether or not you’ve hit the key points. If they miss something, you can prompt them with a specific question. Don’t forget to make notes of the important details that come up but let the conversation flow as much as possible.\nAnd the best way to let things flow is…\nLet the silence do the work Legendary interviewer Cal Fussman is fond of saying “Let the silence do the work.” and you should do the same. Pose a question and then sit back. Don’t be afraid to let someone sit and think for a moment before they speak. And once they are speaking, let them speak as much as possible with as little interruption from you as possible.\nNudge them here and there to make sure you hit the key points you want to cover but let them speak as much as your time allows. Whatever you do, don’t tell them what you think or ‘help’ them with an example: that’s introducing biases and anchoring into the conversation. (And it should go without saying but always ask open questions unless you need to nail a specific point.)\nNotes, notes, notes Again, don’t forget to take notes. Lots of notes. Because you are going to be conducting dozens of interviews in a short space of time and it can be tough to remember who said what when. Just let the interviewee know that you don’t want to miss anything so you will be taking notes. And only do this by hand. I find that having a laptop or tablet open creates a barrier on a one-on-one conversation so use a pad and paper.\n(These notes will also stand you in good stead long after the interview. I had to refer back to the notes from the kidnapping interview over a year later because of an incident at that same site.)\nThe critical thing to remember is that the interview is an opportunity for you to learn from a subject matter expert. If you are doing all of the talking, or constrain the conversation with rigid, closed questions, you won’t get as much information and will likely only reinforce your own biases.\nInstead, prepare, have a structure, take notes and let the silence do the work. You might be surprised by what you find out.\nPhoto by Dang Nghia on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/04/29/structure-silence-and-lots-and-lots-of-notes-how-to-conduct-an-effective-interview/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“Well, there was the kidnapping.  Is that something you’re interested in?”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt was our last day of a week-long site security survey. We were meeting with the site manager to wrap up our visit but this was the first time we had heard anything about something as serious as this.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo yes, a kidnapping was something we were very, \u003cem\u003every\u003c/em\u003e interested in learning about….\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI have no idea why it hadn’t come up before: we had conducted dozens of other interviews that week and had dozens of pages of notes.  However, it almost didn’t come up at all: at this late stage, we were going to skip the interview and go straight into a review of our findings.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Structure, Silence and Lots and Lots of Notes: How to Conduct an Effective Interview"},{"content":"I’ve written before about how you need to have a clear idea of what you’re trying to achieve with your risk assessment and to get everyone onto the same page. Without this kind of understanding, it’s very unlikely that you will complete the assessment in the time available. Even if you do, you might not have answered the original question.\nSo you need to plan your assessment properly but what does that look like? Here’s a short five-step process to make sure that you are well-prepared for your assessment before you ask the first question or open up a spreadsheet.\nGet a free project planning worksheet here\nEstablish the objectives, scope and parameters This begins with answering ‘the big question’: what’s the assessment for? Ensure that you are clear about the overall objective of the assessment and its scope. Know what it’s for, what you need to cover, what you need to omit and who the client is (even if that’s someone internally). This is going to set the scene for the whole assessment and any inaccuracies or misunderstandings here could doom the whole project before you start.\nAt this stage, you also need to confirm the project manager, the budget and timeframe. The project manager may well be you but there might be someone else overseeing the whole project that you need to report to\nAs far as budget and timeframe are concerned, you need to look at these in the context of the scope of the assessment. Might travel be required to allow you to interview key people? If so, is that feasible? Do you need to use a consultant?\nAnd what about time? Two months might be sufficient for a risk assessment but what if a major event is going to dominate the first month and the whole executive team will be unavailable? What about holidays? Think about both the total amount of time available and the amount of useable time you have.\nYou will have time to review and revise the project plan later but start to think about these issues of time and budget now.\nConfirm your project team and the assistance available Know who will be able to assist you throughout the process and who you can call on for specific support. This group will break down into permanent team members and occasional team members.\nPermanent members are those who are going to participate in each step of the assessment even though they probably conduct other work activities in-between. This group is your core assessment team.\nOccasional members are those you only need from time-to-time. For example, you might want a particular specialist to help with a set of technical interviews or someone to help with administration or to compile the final report.\nMake sure that you have the authority and permission to use these people’s time and also check that there aren’t any scheduling conflicts during the assessment timeframe.\nThink about the assessment structure You won’t need to apply the assessment structure for a while yet but have this conversation now.\nHow are you categorizing things? What methodology are you using? What’s the grading system? Working this out now will avoid having to have a big discussion later, probably at the point where you ought to be compiling the assessment. It also makes sure that everyone is on the same page before you start.\nConsider your information sources Documents\nA good place to start is at the top: the annual report or ‘About Us’ page, and then work down. Compile a list of the documents that are relevant to the assessment. Annual reports and strategy documents are useful to set the scene before you get into the specific policies and plans that are relevant to the assessment. You don’t need to gather the documents now, just work out what you need and start to think about where you can get these.\nOne point: I would avoid reading old risk assessment at this stage as these might influence your thought process.\nPeople\nInterviews are a great way to really understand the organization and are key to a good assessment. Plan to interview as many people as time allows but you need to prioritize these. Focus on the key leadership positions, subject-matter experts and the owners of the parts the organization that the risk assessment touches. If you have time, speak to people involved in the activity you are considering or those with a lot of experience in the business as these will give you additional insights.\nWrite up your project plan The last step is to pull all of this together into a project plan. This doesn’t need to be complicated, just a summary of what’s laid out above will be sufficient. If you use a specific project-management process or tool in your organization, take all the info you have and apply it there.\nGet your project planning worksheet here\nAnd that’s it. This isn’t a lot of work and I guarantee it is time well spent.\nSo if you’re tempted to jump right into the assessment without planning, don’t. Assessments are hard enough to get right as it is and delivering on time and within scope can be even harder. Not having a plan up front is just going to make your life more difficult so spend 45 minutes or an hour now planning things out.\nAnd remember, even if you have a plan in your head, there’s a team and a sponsor who are also part of this project. Writing things down gets everyone on the same page and will avoid a lot of heartache later on.\n*Photo by Alvaro Reyes on *Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/04/22/how-to-plan-a-risk-assessment/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI’ve written before about how you need to \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/02/26/whats-your-risk-assessment-for-2/\"\u003ehave a clear idea of what you’re trying to achieve with your risk assessment\u003c/a\u003e and to get everyone onto the same page.  Without this kind of understanding, it’s very unlikely that you will complete the assessment in the time available. Even if you do, you might not have answered the original question.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo you need to plan your assessment properly but what does that look like?\nHere’s a short five-step process to make sure that you are well-prepared for your assessment before you ask the first question or open up a spreadsheet.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How to Plan a Risk Assessment"},{"content":"There are lots of different methodologies for assessing or breaking down a risk. The most common is a two-factor approach where the likelihood and potential impact of an event combine to create a risk.\nLikelihood (of the thing) + Impact (how the thing affects you) = risk\nThis is what’s used for The World’s Simplest Risk Model.\nHowever, this two-dimensional approach leaves out one thing. Sometimes there are barriers between the event or threat and you. So in addition to the event and its potential impact, there’s the concept of vulnerability or exposure: factors that make you more or less susceptible to the event. These can be passive factors – e.g. physical distance – or active measures you’ve taken to reduce your vulnerability to an event.\nAn example of an active measure would be a firewall to protect your IT system. The threat (data loss from a hacking attack) is the same as is the impact if they were to be successful. The difference is that we can now factor in the protective measures you’ve taken to reduce your vulnerability to the threat and therefore reduce your risk.\nThis is why you sometimes see two-stage assessments with the ‘raw’ risk on one side – the basic calculation – and the treated risk on the other. The treated side shows the risk after these barriers or controls have been taken into consideration.\nI don’t like this approach for several reasons but here are the two main ones.\nIt’s slower because you have to run the assessment twice, once with controls and once without. It’s often confusing because it can be hard to tell if a control is an existing control or a possible control. So I don’t immediately know if the value for the treated risk is what it is now or what it could be. So I like to think about risk in 3-D and pull all three elements into your assessment. Even though this might seem more complicated up front, it’s much easier in the long run. It’s also really useful when you start to think about risk treatments.\nI realize that this seems like a contradiction to The World’s Simplest Risk Model (TWSRM) which only uses a 2×2 grid. So am I saying that TWSRM doesn’t work? No, not really. TWSRM lays out the absolute simplest approach to risk I could come up with. Unfortunately, the trade-off was that, to make it so simple, there had to be some compromises. It’s simple and works but isn’t the optimum model. But if you’ve never had anything to do with risk management, The World’s Simplest Risk Model is a good place to start. 3D risk takes this concept to the next level and is vastly more powerful but TWSRM still works.\nThe best model for risk, in my opinion, is to consider all three components at the same time, not in two stages. This means that your risk definition is:\nRisk is a combination of the threat (event), the vulnerability (how insulated you are from the event), the impact (the potential effect of the event).\nYou can think of this mathematically too\nrisk = threat * vulnerability * impact\nNow, you have everything in one place and a much better sense of all the components that make up the risk. When it comes to addressing the risk, this improved understanding lets you really see the factors that are generating the risk. You can think of these as three levers or dials which can be moved to adjust the risk up or down using the A4T options.\nThe key benefit to me is that you’re dealing with everything at once, not conducing multiple calculations. This is faster and more efficient for three reasons:\nFirstly, if a value is zero, you can discount the risk immediately. So if you have such good controls in place that there’s effectively no risk, you will see that right away instead of having to compete the second step make that conclusion. Secondly, you have fewer calculations to conduct. So you can run through the assessment much more efficiently. Thirdly, when it’s time to discuss how you are going to address the risk, thinking about three levers that you can adjust is a very useful visualization. This helps the group better understand the options available and select the best mix of A4T options they want to use in their risk strategy. Here’s a simple example of the two models being used for the same situation.\nAn exposed live 220V cable (the threat) will cause me significant damage (impact) if I touch it. Using the 2-D approach, I assess the raw risk and see that this is a high risk – I’m going to get frazzled if I touch the wire. But if I have some controls in place, such as insulated gloves I can use to handle the wire, I need to repeat the calculation to determine what the residual risk looks like. But if I just use the 3-D model, I can add in the controls right away. I consider the threat (electrocution)and the impact (shock or possible cardiac arrest) as I do in the 2D model but I also add in the controls. When I add vulnerability now (which is reduced because I use insulated gloves) I can asses the risk in one step.\nA two-factor model is still sufficient in some circumstances, especially if you are just getting started but I’d recommend you start thinking about risk in 3D as soon as possible to speed up your process and start having richer, more detailed discussions about how to address your risks.\nSo the threat, vulnerability, impact model is faster, more efficient and gives you better data to help with decision-making. That’s a win, win, win in my opinion (and still KISS).\nPhoto by Samuel Zeller on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/04/15/stop-thinking-about-risk-in-two-dimensions/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThere are lots of different methodologies for assessing or breaking down a risk.  The most common is a two-factor approach where the likelihood and potential impact of an event combine to create a risk.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLikelihood (of the thing) + Impact (how the thing affects you)  = risk\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis is what’s used for \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/03/18/the-worlds-simplest-risk-model/\"\u003eThe World’s Simplest Risk Model\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, this two-dimensional approach leaves out one thing.  Sometimes there are barriers between the event or threat and you.  So in addition to the event and its potential impact, there’s the concept of vulnerability or exposure: factors that make you more or less susceptible to the event. These can be passive factors – e.g. physical distance – or active measures you’ve taken to reduce your vulnerability to an event.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Stop thinking about risk in two-dimensions"},{"content":"Naturally, a lot of time and effort in risk management goes into understanding the risks that you face. After all, if you don’t understand what you’re up against, there’s not a lot of risk management to be done. However, even when you complete a comprehensive risk assessment, this is just the beginning of the process. Now the real work starts and you have to answer the big question.\nWhat do we do next?\nAt this point, things become very subjective. Not only does the risk depend on your particular situation, but so does the most appropriate response. That’s one of the reasons that it’s so hard to develop a one-size-fits-all set of mitigation measures because the ‘right’ answer will differ, company by company. So instead of a simple ‘if you have A, then do B’, approach, you have to customize the response to meet your specific needs.\nThis isn’t dissimilar to what you will see in a gym. Imagine a group of people who all want to lose weight and get fit. They will all be given different workout and diet plans to meet their specific needs. They will all have very different paths to get to them to a similar goal: there’s no one-size-fits-all plan.\nHowever, despite the customization, there will be some common elements in each plan: healthy eating, regular aerobic exercise, cut back on PopTarts (my weakness). It’s going to be the same when you start thinking about what to do about a risk. There will be common approaches that you can use to address a risk even though the exact mix – the specific strategy – will be unique to your organization.\nBefore I jump into the details, one point on terminology. I call this ‘addressing’ the risk rather than ‘managing’ the risk just to differentiate this particular step from the overall practice of ‘risk management’. So you first understand the risk by assessing it, then you address the risks. (Read more on this basic approach here.)\nWhen it’s time to ask ‘what do we do about this risk?’, your options broadly fall into one of five categories\nAvoid Treat Tolerate Transfer Terminate These options (A4T) give you five top-level strategies for addressing a risk which you can then develop into specific measures as part of a detailed risk management plan. Here’s a little more detail on each but also keep in mind that you may well combine several of these to tackle a single risk.\nAvoid This means that you don’t engage with the risk in the first place. If you were considering a new project in a location where there was civil unrest, you might decide not to go ahead at all. Likewise, you decide to not add a new feature to a piece of software because the associated privacy issues outweigh the benefits of the upgrade. The key thing here is that you haven’t engaged with the risk yet so you can avoid it altogether.\nTerminate However, if you are already exposed to the risk, then you have the option to terminate that specific activity and remove the risk altogether. So if you discovered that an existing software feature was now an issue because of new privacy legislation (hello GDPR!) you might terminate that. Or if civil war broke out in a previously stable location where you were operating, closing everything down removes that risk. You terminate the activity that exposes you to the risk.\nTolerate If a risk falls within acceptable parameters then you can tolerate the risk and there’s no additional action to take that at this stage. There are two key ideas to keep in mind here\nYour risk appetite is the amount of risk you are comfortable with for the long-term. Your risk tolerance is the amount of risk that you are willing to bear in the short term. This is usually greater than your risk appetite unless you have an extremely cautious organization where it might be the same. So to tolerate a risk, it has to be below your risk appetite threshold. It either already falls into this bracket or you use one of the other A4T options to reduce to an acceptable level. Keep in mind that it might take a while to reduce a risk but it’s usually OK to tolerate a higher risk as long as you are actively working to reduce it.\nTreat Treating the risk is when you use specific mitigations to bring the risk into line with your levels of comfort (your risk appetite). Treating the risk should make it tolerable (see above) as you are aiming to bring it into line with your risk appetite. Ideally, you are striving to get to the point where it is as low as possible (here the term ALARP is often used – as low as reasonably possible). We often jump right to treatment when we start to plan our risk strategy but make sure you don’t overlook the other options available and remember that a mix of techniques might be appropriate.\nTransfer Finally, you can transfer the risk elsewhere. Buying insurance or contracting someone else to conduct higher risk activities are forms of risk transfer. Just be careful that you don’t end up with a false-transfer where it looks like you transferred a risk but you remain exposed. For example, if you retain responsibility for the actions of sub-contractors, you haven’t transferred your risk. (In fact, you’ve increased it but that’s a discussion for another day).\nNow you have five general strategies that you can use to start to consider how to address each risk: avoid, terminate, treat, tolerate and transfer. But remember, this isn’t a one or another choice: mix and match the A4T strategies to get your risks to an acceptable level. For example, it’s very common to have insurance – risk transfer – in addition to other A4T options as part of the strategy for a single risk.\nSo keep these in mind when you next look at your risks and are deciding what the next steps should be. These five options will help you develop some top-level strategies for what to do before you start working on detailed treatment plans.\nPhoto by Jens Lelie on Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/04/08/now-you-understand-your-risk-whats-next/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eNaturally, a lot of time and effort in risk management goes into understanding the risks that you face.  After all, if you don’t understand what you’re up against, there’s not a lot of risk management to be done.  However, even when you complete a comprehensive risk assessment, this is just the beginning of the process.  Now the real work starts and you have to answer the big question.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat do we do next?\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Now you understand your risk – what’s next?"},{"content":"Original image – Partnership for a Drug-Free America\nThere are lots of things that are hard about risk and risk management: you are often dealing with abstracts and potential events; showing success can be challenging when your job sometimes means nothing happens; you might not be seen as adding value.\nBut the biggest challenges always seem to concern discussions about risk. These discussions are hard, even when we have set out clear definitions for what we mean by risk and have everyone on the same page theory-wise.\nThey’re hard because our brains aren’t optimized for these kinds of conversations. If we aren’t careful, we can end up skewing things to the point where our discussions aren’t effective. Sometimes, we can actually cause problems.\nLet me give you two quick examples. Firstly, how people’s experiences shape the conversation.\nAfter the Arab Spring in the late 2000s, many companies were forced to evacuate large numbers of staff from North Africa and from around the Middle East. In some cases, people had gone from living in a stable, quiet location to being in the middle of a war zone in a very short period. In the 12-24 months afterwards, this experience was still very raw and top-of-mind even for staff who hadn’t been directly involved. This meant that discussions around this experience could dominate any ‘risk’ conversation you had with these firms, often at the expense of time spent considering any other risk.\nHere’s another example but this time it’s how what you say influences the conversation.\nI was managing a risk assessment workshop with a company’s leadership team and, as soon as the words left my mouth, I instantly regretted it. “For example, what if there was a road traffic accident involving senior staff?” From that point on, road traffic accidents cropped up in the conversations at a much high frequency than was warranted. I had accidentally dropped an anchor around which the conversation was now circling.\nI’m sure these examples aren’t that unusual and you may well have your own experiences of risk conversations gone askew.\nBut what’s actually happening here and how can you avoid skewing the conversation when you’re talking about risk?\nWhat’s actually going on? There are three main things to keep in mind when you are having a conversation about risk.\nFirstly, as I noted before, our brains aren’t optimized for abstract thinking: we are hard-wired to react instinctively in many situations. Secondly, our thinking and reaction to things is influenced our own experiences and culture. Finally, we react to the type of information that is presented to us, the way it is presented and the environment we are in when we receive it.\nThese factors all fall broadly under the category of System One thinking: thinking that “operates automatically and quickly with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control”. Daniel Khaneman, Thinking Fast and Slow*.\nThe key point is that this is an activity that is automatic and fast. This is great if a saber-toothed tiger is chasing you but terrible if you need to have an objective, thoughtful discussion about abstract risks.\nInstead, we need System Two*** ***thinking which “allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex calculations” (Khaneman).\nBut how can we do that when System One thinking is automatic?\nFour ways to have a better discussion Here are four things to consider when planning or framing a risk discussion. These won’t overcome all your challenges but these should help tamp down System One thinking to make room for more considered System Two thoughts.\nBiases (1): differences we might see We all have biases whether we like it or not. Some are unconscious such as a tendency to feel more comfortable with people who look and sound like us. Similarly, we can feel uncomfortable with people who appear to be different and then there are ingrained biases around sex, sexuality and race. We need to be mindful if we sense that these are subconsciously influencing a discussion.\nBut we also have to consider more conscious biases where the subconscious comfort we have with people like us becomes an active dislike of people who are different. These eventually lead to racism, sexism and religious discrimination which are more serious problems and impediments to a conversation but are also easier to spot.\nBiases (2): differences we might not see But what about more subtle cultural biases. Americans view things differently than the French do but Hispanic Americans might view some things differently from Irish Americans. Yankees fans (boo!) will react to hearing ‘Boston’ even if we aren’t talking about the Red Sox. (And Mets fans will also react to writing the word ‘Yankees’ it seems!) Engineers and liberal arts graduates think about things differently. Parents view things differently than DINK-y couples.\nImportantly, we all inhabit multiple cultures simultaneously and these will affect our thinking in different ways, at different times, depending on the situation. So one minute we think like an engineer and the next as a Yankees fan.\nImagine if you have two engineers who are Yankees fan but one is a mom of Irish descent and the other is a Hispanic dad. They simultaneously inhabit multiple cultures, some of which are shared and some which are different.\nThink about how you frame things and which ‘culture’ you are appealing to in your conversation.\nThink about and acknowledge experiences If a group has had a unique, shared experience, this can overshadow any discussion. Instead of trying to avoid that (only to have it come up anyway), consider addressing that first. Get the ‘elephant in the room’ out of the way first but then be strict about not allowing it to dominate the discussions. It will still be there at the back of people’s minds but you can eliminate some of the influence this way.\nSimilarly, someone who has experienced a significant personal event might bring those feelings into the conversation but won’t be as obvious as higher-profile, group experience. Be mindful of how people are talking, the points they are focussing on or return. These can highlight other factors that are affecting their thinking.\nAnd what about your relationship with the group: are you an outsider or an insider? And if you’re an outsider, how do you deal with the fact that you aren’t part of the in-group? In the Arab Spring example I gave above, this was a problem and it could be difficult to work with some of the groups because I was an outsider: “you won’t get it”.\nMind your language. Think about what you say, the examples you use and even how you present the information. Something as innocuous as the font used or writing a percentage instead of a fraction can elicit very different responses. Beware of ‘anchoring’ a conversation about a topic or point, especially when it comes to numbers. Remember, any number you give in an example will influence people’s thinking. If you say ’is this more of less than $1,000’, the answer you get will tend to be higher, even if it is only in the tens of dollars range. You have anchored their evaluation to $1,000.\nThink about your environment. Are people looking at posters reminding them of an anti-harassment policy? Did you just finish a fire evacuation drill? These are environmental triggers or experiences that are immediately available to the individual meaning that these will come to mind more easily as examples. Also, is their line manager in the room? That might also make a difference to how they behave.\nIf you’ve ever watched a ‘mind-reader’ at work, spoken to a car salesman or seen an ad for a product, you will have seen some of these techniques at work. These can be very subtle but are very powerful.\nAs risk managers, we need to be careful that we don’t allow these factors to influence our risk discussions too much. Keeping these points in mind won’t overcome all the difficulties associated with risk discussions but these should help take some of the subjectivity, bias and system one thinking out of your discussions.\nIt takes time and requires care and attention on your part but it’s worth it to have a richer, more thorough and more productive conversation about risk.\nReady for a deeper dive? Here’s a more detailed explanation of risk communications and perception.\n*And if you have time, I highly recommend ’Thinking Fast and Slow’ by Daniel Khaneman if you want to dig into this topic more deeply. It’s not only a thorough review of how our brains work when it comes to system one and system two thinking, it’s also extremely well written and easy to read. I put off reading it for years thinking I wouldn’t have the time to do it justice properly and ended up reading it over a week or two, dipping in and out as I had time. It’s well worth your time.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/04/01/this-is-your-brain-on-risk/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eOriginal image – Partnership for a Drug-Free America\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are lots of things that are hard about risk and risk management: you are often dealing with abstracts and potential events; showing success can be challenging when your job sometimes means nothing happens; \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/01/21/address-your-loi-before-your-roi/\"\u003eyou might not be seen as adding value.\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut the biggest challenges always seem to concern discussions about risk. These discussions are hard, even when we have set out clear definitions for what we mean by risk and have everyone on the same page theory-wise.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"This is your brain on risk"},{"content":"*Photo by Ula Kuźma on *Unsplash\nTo manage your risk management system, you need to have a way to categorize your threats. This is a key part of being able to structure your risk assessments and you need to identify a set of imaginary buckets or folders into which you can group similar threats.\nBut this also helps with information gathering as data on a specific threat category might be grouped together. It also assists when it’s time to address the risks as one action could help mitigate a whole category of threats. Finally, these categories will also help you identify trends and patterns and start to develop an overall picture of your risk environment.\nIt’s worth spending some time getting this right as it will have an influence on your risk management system and once you have set up a set of categories, changing these is going to be messy.\nBut deciding upon these categories can be deceptively difficult. There are three reasons for this. Firstly, categorization can be interpreted as reflecting ownership. So if you have a category called ‘financial’ then it’s not going to be a surprise if the CFO assumes that this is her responsibility. Sometimes, as with the CFO example, ownership could be straightforward but sometimes it leads to turf wars over who owns a set of risks. Trying to get people to agree can therefore become complicated.\nThe second reason is possibly the more problematic. Depending upon how you describe the threat category you can end up talking about the impact and not the threat itself. For example, if you have ‘flooding’ as a category, you’re talking about the effect (the impact), not the cause (the threat from hurricanes). This will influence all of your thinking throughout the process and it can make discussions very complicated and sometimes result in you talking around in circles.\nThis happened to me once when a co-worker and I sat in a room for two days with a whiteboard and lots of sticky notes, trying to design a series of threat categories. By the end of day one, we were confusing ourselves, going around in circles and had stopped talking to each other so we had to quit for the day. When we came back in on day two, we realized that we had stopped talking about threats at one point and had started to add effects and impacts. We had flummoxed ourselves by mixing threat categories in with impact descriptions. Once we identified this problem, we were quickly able to fix things and built a system that’s still valid today, more than 15 years later.\nThirdly, it can be hard to get the right balance between categories that are too broad and categories that are too specific. There’s a ‘Goldilocks’ point at which the categories are specific enough to keep similar items together but not so specific that you end up with a list of individual threats. Imagine you needed a way to categorize sports teams. ‘US Sports teams’ would be a very broad category, but ‘The New York Giants’ or ’The Mets’ are specific teams. Instead, ’NFL Teams’ and ‘MLB Teams’ might be useful categories.\nA simple way to help keep things under control is to just count the number of categories. If you only have two (e.g. Internal or external threats) it’s probably too few. On the other hand, if you have 25 categories, that’s probably too many. I think that somewhere between six and ten is usually enough. When I designed DCDR, I felt that the six below covered most eventualities\nMarket / Financial Statutory (regulatory) / political Safety / security / health Environment Licence to operate / reputation Infrastructure There’s also an ‘other’ option for users to add their own. This isn’t a hard and fast set of categories but I don’t think I have had to use the other category so far: most of what I’ve been considering can be slotted into one of these categories. So spend some time thinking about what the right categories are for your organization. Getting this right will help shape your discussions and make it easier to analyze the results without becoming too specific: that’s what the individual threat description is for. And whatever you do, don’t mix up your threats with your impacts. Keep those sticky notes separate!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/03/25/getting-threat-categorization-right/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*Photo by \u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://unsplash.com/photos/9i4DHlC80AQ?utm_source=unsplash\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\"\u003eUla Kuźma\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e on *\u003ca href=\"https://unsplash.com/search/photos/archive?utm_source=unsplash\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\"\u003eUnsplash\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo manage your risk management system, you need to have a way to categorize your threats. This is a key part of being able to structure your risk assessments and you need to identify a set of imaginary buckets or folders into which you can group similar threats.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut this also helps with information gathering as data on a specific threat category might be grouped together. It also assists when it’s time to address the risks as one action could help mitigate a whole category of threats. Finally, these categories will also help you identify trends and patterns and start to develop an overall picture of your risk environment.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Getting threat categorization right"},{"content":"In addition to the many different definitions for risk, there are lots of different ways to calculate risk. Having a way to assess a risk and ascribe a value is the core of any risk assessment: this valuation allows us to prioritize our risks and differentiate between those of low priority vs the higher, more urgent issues we need to deal with. So we need a way to do these kinds of calculation but if we aren’t careful, we can end up with a model that’s too complicated for most people’s needs. For example here’s a method that’s used in one industry in the US. If you write it down as a formula, you get something like this:\nRisk = L2 * C where L2 = L1 * V and L1 = A * T\nOr…\nRisk = (((A*T)*V)*C)\nBut the calculation isn’t actually the product of the factors, it’s a mix. Some values are the result of adding the components and others are based on where these land on a 5×5 grid. So we can’t just multiply the values as the formula suggests\nBasically, it’s a mess and it’s confusing, despite the most sincere and well-meaning efforts of the people who designed this. Remember, simple can be hard.\nI know that I’ve been guilty of this myself. For example, I like a three factor model for risk:\nrisk = threat * vulnerability * impact. I think that this definition is a great way to break down a risk and this approach also helps when it’s time to design mitigation measures. I used this as the core methodology for DCDR and for my assessments. It works and it’s relatively simple. But relatively simple isn’t the same as really simple and that’s where we need to start sometimes. (This is meant to be KISS risk management after all…!) Even this approach can get confusing and it might be more than some people need, especially when they’re starting out.\nIntroducing, the World’s Simplest Risk Model™ (TWSRM) So I wanted to find something even more simple. Here’s what I came up with. (You will also see why I didn’t pursue a career in calligraphy.)\nHere, we’re using a very simple definition for risk as being made up of two components: likelihood and impact. Risk = likelihood x impact\nWe just rate each component ‘low’ or ‘high’ to get an overall risk rating of ‘low’, ‘moderate’ or ‘high’.\nNext, we can jazz it up a little with some color to make the results easier to understand.\nSo we now have a process for assessing a risk, rating it and differentiating between risks of different severity. Then, we add some simple numeric values. Now we also have a way to combine a number of risks to give us aggregate values or to compare individual risks by value.\nSo we can assess a series of individual risks, compare these or combine the results to get an overall total. Simple? Definitely. Too simple…?\nKISS or too KISS? No matter your level of expertise and experience, you’re probably thinking the same thing:\n“That’s ridiculous. It’s far too simple.”\nAnd in many ways you would be right.\nThis model is very simple (I did promise you the world’s simplest model after all). It won’t be practical in a lot of situations.\nBut it does work. And what’s more, the vast majority of risk models don’t look significantly different from this. There may be more boxes on the grid or even additional factors but the process is basically the same.\nSo unless you have a very specific, technical use case (hi NASA), you don’t want a really complex model because these are difficult to follow and easy to get wrong. (Remember Risk = L2 * C where L2 = L1 * V and L1 = A * T?)\nAnd you also start to tie yourself in knots when you try to make something too mathematical and statistical when the underlying data isn’t really quantitative. So even if The World’s Simplest Risk Model™ isn’t practical in most cases, what you need might not need to be much more complicated. KISS and build the most simple model you need to get the job done. (BTW, The World’s Simplest Risk Model™ isn’t really trademarked so feel free to use this and the other material in the blog. Just be good enough to link back or acknowledge the source!)\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/03/18/the-worlds-simplest-risk-model/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIn addition to the many different definitions for risk, there are lots of different ways to calculate risk.  Having a way to assess a risk and ascribe a value is the core of any risk assessment: this valuation allows us to prioritize our risks and differentiate between those of low priority vs the higher, more urgent issues we need to deal with. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo we need a way to do these kinds of calculation but if we aren’t careful, we can end up with a model that’s too complicated for most people’s needs. \u003c/p\u003e","title":"The World’s Simplest Risk Model"},{"content":"If you’re cooking, you need a way to tell how hot the oven is. You won’t be able to tell the difference between 275oF and 325oF just by sticking your hand inside – both are going to feel hot to you – but this is the difference between a perfect, crunchy yet chewy meringue and something that’s dry and explodes into a pile of dust. So we use a thermometer to give us the information we need.\nSimilarly, we need a way to be able to differentiate between risks, to separate those that are ‘hotter’ and might burn us and the others that are simply ‘warm’. Unfortunately, we can’t buy a risk thermometer so we conduct a risk assessment to help us make that differentiation. A risk assessment allows us to rate or ascribe a value to our risks and place these on a comparative scale so we can then rank and prioritize these for action. This lets us identify those that could have the greatest effect on our objectives and those that are less likely to interfere with what we are trying to do. It’s our way of working out whether a risk is too hot, too cold or just right. However, the assessment doesn’t tell you what to do with the risk, it just puts everything into context so you can then make informed decisions. What you do about those risks comes down to your organization and your objectives.\nFor example, if you specialize in drilling test wells in remote, dangerous areas, you are going to engage with a series of risks that are considered ‘hotter’. Your business depends on your acceptance and management of risks that others don’t want to take. Meanwhile, a small accountancy firm will likely be the opposite and may promote its stability and low-risk approach as a way to attract customers. Each firm will make a different decision if faced with the same risk.\nSimilar to a thermometer, the assessment just gives you a result. It’s up to you to decide if the temperature’s right. And don’t forget that an assessment like this isn’t a predictive or forecasting tool. It isn’t giving you a percentage chance of success or failure. It’s giving you a comparative rating on a scale. There are tools for technical scenarios that use enormous data sets and complex mathematics to develop predictive outcomes and forecasts. These have specific, technical uses but have their own flaws and limitations and these still aren’t crystal balls: there are numerous examples of where these systems have failed.\nSo these technical, predictive tools are outside of our scope here. Instead, we’re talking about assessments that rate and prioritize risks to support decision-making, not predictive algorithms.\nAbove all, like everything else, keep it simple. There can be lots of moving parts in a risk assessment and the analysis part – the actual calculations – can get complicated. Depending on what you’re trying to do, you might not need a detailed process, something simple might work. You might not even have sufficient data to power a complex model. To help work out what’s best for you, ask yourself two questions:\nWhat kind of output do we need? Do I have the type and quantity of information I need power the model? So when you are starting your risk assessment, keep these points in mind. That’s going to help make sure you have the right tool for the job and avoid any misconceptions of what the risk assessment can do. Remember, your risk assessment’s like a thermometer, not a crystal ball.\nThat’s going to help you work out which approach is best for you. The key thing is to make sure you have the right tool for the job and you don’t try to use something that’s too complicated which might prevent you from getting the decision-makers the information they need. Stay lean and KISS. (To give you an idea of just how simple a model could be, you can see The World’s Simplest Risk Model here shortly.)\n*Photo by Manki Kim on *Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/03/11/your-risk-assessments-a-thermometer-not-a-crystal-ball/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIf you’re cooking, you need a way to tell how hot the oven is.  You won’t be able to tell the difference between 275oF and 325oF just by sticking your hand inside – both are going to feel hot to you – but this is the difference between \u003ca href=\"https://www.epicurious.com/recipes/food/views/meringues-234238\"\u003ea perfect, crunchy yet chewy meringue\u003c/a\u003e and something that’s dry and explodes into a pile of dust. So we use a thermometer to give us the information we need.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Your risk assessment’s a thermometer, not a crystal ball"},{"content":"The point of risk management is to understand and react to the threats and opportunities that might affect your business. The problem is that risk management can often become dislocated from the mainstream business processes. Instead of being integrated into the organization, risk management takes place in a parallel but separate workstream: one that decision-makers dip into occasionally but generally look at as a specialized, technical process.\nI’ve seen a similar thing happens with cybersecurity. Despite the fact that almost every business is now wholly dependent on a robust, secure and effective IT infrastructure, cyber security is still often seen as a ‘thing that IT does’. Even though cyber security is effectively supply chain security (plus a lot more), it isn’t thought of that way.\nOne way to solve this conundrum is to think of a risk assessment like a P\u0026amp;L statement or balance sheet: it’s a data set that supports decision-making. And, taking that one step farther, you risk data can support the decision-makers if it’s linked to your overall objectives. If you map out how threats or opportunities are linked to your objectives, you can link your assessment directly to what the organization is trying to achieve.\nHowever, there’s not going to be a direct link between a threat and the objective in a lot of cases. Even if there is, it might not be specific enough to make a meaningful decision. So instead, need a middle step to identify the critical factors that enable you to reach your objectives. Top-level objectives —\u0026gt; Factors for success —\u0026gt; Threat / opportunities\nMoving from the strategic (objectives) to the operational (factors for success) to the details (individual threats) will help you link everything together.\nThen, reverse the process and map the threats / opportunities to success factors before looking at how a risk might affect that objective. Threat / opportunities —\u0026gt; Factors for success —\u0026gt; Top-level objectives\nThis makes it easier to link the risk data to your objectives and to make better, more informed decisions.\nHere’s the whole thing sketched out\nHowever, you have to keep in mind that the threat category might not always line up with the description for the objective. For example, your top level objective is to deliver the highest quality of widgets in your industry. To do that, you need to recruit and retain the top talent which you class as a People item. However, you face a Reputational risk because of the behavior of the previous CEO which makes attracting good people difficult. So a Reputational threat causes a risk that affects your People success factor. This in turn affects your quality objective.\nSo get your stakeholders and decision-makers to start thinking about risk data as another data-source to help with decision-making. At the same time, ensure that what you produce is clear and tied to objectives: be effects-led, not threat-led.\nThis apparent simplification doesn’t mean that there’s still not a lot going on behind the scenes. This simplification requires a lot of work but that’s not unusual: just think about how many hours go into producing a one-page P\u0026amp;L statement for a big organization. However, you will be more effective if you present your results as clean, clear, useable data that directly link to what your organization is trying to do.\n*Photo by Raul Petri on *Unsplash\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/03/04/linking-risk-assessments-to-decision-making-2/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThe point of risk management is to understand and react to the threats and opportunities that might affect your business.  The problem is that risk management can often become dislocated from the mainstream business processes.  Instead of being integrated into the organization, risk management takes place in a parallel but separate workstream: one that decision-makers dip into occasionally but generally look at as a specialized, technical process.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’ve seen a  similar thing happens with cybersecurity. Despite the fact that almost every business is now wholly dependent on a robust, secure and effective IT infrastructure, cyber security is still often seen as a ‘\u003cem\u003ething that IT does\u003c/em\u003e’.  Even though cyber security is effectively supply chain security (plus a lot more), it isn’t thought of that way.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Linking risk assessments to decision-making"},{"content":"Up front, this seems like an easy question to answer. ‘It’s to help us understand our risks.’\nThat’s true but then, what? What comes next?\nIf we start a risk assessment with no clear idea of what it’s to be used for, we will end up with something that’s unfocussed and doesn’t provide the insight we need. Or we might end up losing our way as we get spread too thin trying to assess everything.\nSadly, I’ve been part of dozens of projects where I knew that the final report was going to end up sitting on someone’s desk gathering dust or overlooked on a hard drive. They knew that they ought to have a risk assessment but just weren’t sure what to do next. Somewhere along the line the report gets lost and forgotten because no-one else was wondering where it was. No-one else was depending on it.\nAnd that’s assuming we managed to finish the assessment in the first place.\nThe risk assessment, indeed the risk management program generally, should help the organization achieve its objectives. Specifically, the risk assessment is to help decision-makers understand the risks that might stand in the way of progress. Or the risks they should take advantage of to help drive things forward.\nThe point is that the risk assessment is a tool to help support decision-making.\nYou need to drill into what the specific point of each assessment is before you start but the first thing you need to do is to remember that this is a means to an end, not the end in itself. This is a critical part of your organization’s decision-making process, not something that sits in isolation. So the more accurate answer to the question is:\n‘Our risk assessment help us understand our risks so we can make better decisions’.\nWhat that decision is depends on the situation but keep this in mind and your assessment will be more focussed, more efficient and more effective.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/02/26/whats-your-risk-assessment-for-2/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eUp front, this seems like an easy question to answer.  \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e‘It’s to help us understand our risks.’\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThat’s true but then, what?  What comes next?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIf we start a risk assessment with no clear idea of what it’s to be used for, we will end up with something that’s unfocussed and doesn’t provide the insight we need.  Or we might end up losing our way as we get spread too thin trying to assess everything.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"What’s your risk assessment for?"},{"content":"If you’ve ever read anything about software start-ups, you will have heard the term MVP (minimum viable product). The idea is that you create something that does the bare minimum necessary to allow you to test your idea. This lean, minimalist approach lets you produce something quickly, test your assumptions and then use this feedback to go on to develop something more detailed or comprehensive. This is in contrast to building a fully functioning piece of software up front which might mean that you invest a significant amount of time and effort only to find out that you’ve missed the mark.\n**In many ways, we can run into the same problem with a risk assessment. **\nWe want to cover every eventuality, dig into each threat as deeply as we can and to produce the most comprehensive report possible. Unfortunately, because of the sheer size of this task, we often get distracted, wander off course and lose our way. The end result is a product that covers a lot of ground but lacks depth. Worst of all, we fail to address the critical question that we set out to answer.\nI had something similar a few years ago where a consultancy I was with had some very detailed and comprehensive tools for evaluating projects and assessing risks. But these were all big, cumbersome, ‘all or nothing’ tools which took days to complete. This meant that we couldn’t use these to answer a lot of the straightforward questions we encountered on a daily basis. We didn’t have the ability to use our own tools to help with our own decision-making.\nSo we created lightweight versions of each tool which we automated and templated to give everyone something they could use in minutes or hours, rather than days. So even though we might need a full spectrum risk assessment tool as part of the final project, these ‘minimum viable’ versions what actually what we needed and used on a day-to-day basis.\nI don’t think there’s anything wrong with taking the MVP philosophy and applying it to risk assessments. We can identify the critical components we need to target if we work backwards from the decision we are trying to make or question we are trying to answer. We can then conduct an MVA – a minimal viable assessment – that focusses on these key components to get us the results we need. Basically, keep things as simple as possible. This is not only faster but we now have less chance of getting side-tracked by areas that seem relevant to the assessment but turn out to be distractions or dead ends. One key thing to keep in mind is that we are saying minimum viable assessment: we still need a useable assessment and this could still be a big piece of work depending on the project. We’re being lean, not starving ourselves of what we need.\nThis is why the MVA concept fits naturally into a ‘lean’ system. You’re taking a fast, iterative approach to risk management rather than the more bloated, sluggish, traditional approach. So when you next about to start a risk assessment, be lazy for moment and ask yourself ‘what’s the absolute minimum I have to do to answer this question, support these decision-makers or get the information I need?’\nThat’s going to allow you to concentrate on only what’s absolutely necessary, turn the assessment round much more quickly and ensure that you are totally focused on generating the output that you and the decision-makers need.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/02/18/the-minimum-viable-assessment/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIf you’ve ever read anything about software start-ups, you will have heard the term MVP (\u003ca href=\"https://www.techopedia.com/definition/27809/minimum-viable-product-mvp\"\u003eminimum viable product\u003c/a\u003e). The idea is that you create something that does the bare minimum necessary to allow you to test your idea. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis lean, minimalist approach lets you produce something quickly, test your assumptions and then use this feedback to go on to develop something more detailed or comprehensive. This is in contrast to building a fully functioning piece of software up front which might mean that you invest a significant amount of time and effort only to find out that you’ve missed the mark.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The minimum viable assessment"},{"content":" ‘risk – the effect of uncertainty on objectives’ ISO 73, Risk Management Definitions\nA risk is something that will have an effect on your objectives, good or bad.\nSo you might have something that threatens your success (a downside risk) or an opportunity that could help you on your way (an upside risk).\nThere are lots of ways to break a risk into components but most include a combination of a thing that can happen (a threat or opportunity), how likely that thing is (the likelihood) and what its effect might be (the impact). Often, we write express risk as a formula which will help us assess and grade our risks quantitatively. So we can take what we just wrote to produce this:\n*Risk = likelihood (of the thing) x impact *\nYou can build much more complicated structures, definitions and models but this is all you need to get started. As I promised, keeping it simple….\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/02/11/what-is-risk-2/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e‘risk – the effect of uncertainty on objectives’\nISO 73, Risk Management Definitions\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA risk is something that will have an effect on your objectives, good or bad.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo you might have something that threatens your success (a \u003cem\u003edownside risk\u003c/em\u003e) or an opportunity that could help you on your way (an \u003cem\u003eupside risk\u003c/em\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere are lots of ways to break a risk into components but most include a combination of a thing that can happen (a \u003cem\u003ethreat\u003c/em\u003e or \u003cem\u003eopportunity\u003c/em\u003e), how likely that thing is (the \u003cem\u003elikelihood\u003c/em\u003e) and what its effect might be (the \u003cem\u003eimpact\u003c/em\u003e). \u003c/p\u003e","title":"What’s risk?"},{"content":" “That’s been one of my mantras – focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.” Steve Jobs\nThis quote sums up the paradox of simplicity – simple is hard. Working out what the essentials are and how to do things efficiently isn’t just hard, it can seem like more work than just sticking with the complicated path in the first place.\nThat’s certainly the case with risk management where we are working with several areas of complexity and difficulty:\nOrganizations are complex Risk management is complicated We are dealing with multiple unknowns Change is hard This would seem to be the kind of thing that isn’t just hard to simplify, but something that actually requires complexity. How can something simple be effective in this case?\nIf you are at NASA or running high-frequency trading models then I agree, it’s going to get complicated. However, most people – and certainly most people reading this – just need a risk management system that’s fast, efficient and effective.\nFast in order to deliver results when they’re needed but time is scarce. Efficient to make the best use of the (usually limited) resources available. Effective because it provides the data that decision-makers need to help the organization achieve its objectives. Anything that is slow and complex will fail each of these tests. Even if you produce a thorough report, it’s often too late or too confusing to use.\nWe need to KISS – keep it stupid simple\nWe need a stripped-down system which delivers results with the speed, efficiency and effectiveness that most risk managers need. At the same time, the system still has to adhere to relevant standards and produce useable results for all but the most technical edge cases.\nEven thoughthat’s what I’ve tried to do from the start, the aim is to make what I’ve already written even more simple and straightforward.\nA system and mindset However, KISS risk management isn’t just a system. Just as importantly it’s a mindset. Using a KISS approach won’t work if you judge success on the number of words in the final report.\nTaking a KISS approach requires you to accept uncertainty, embrace simplification (even if it feels like over-simplification) and understand that you might not be right first time. This might come across as sloppy but it’s not. Instead, it’s about being realistic.\nWe don’t have unlimited time and resources and we certainly don’t have all the information we need. Moreover, even if we did, we are trying to peer into the future so we will still get some things wrong.\nSo KISS is also about being realistic about what risk management can achieve with limited time, limited resources and limited data while still giving decision-makers what they need.\nThe exact process and steps will differ depending on your organization, location and sector. But a simple, lean approachshould be something that should benefit any risk manager.\nSo no matter what your speciality, industry or level of expertise, please take some time to think about what you can strip away, cut back and simplify. Start taking a KISS approach to your risk management system and you’ll quickly see the investment pay off.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/02/04/kiss-easy-to-say-harder-to-achieve/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“That’s been one of my mantras – focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.”\nSteve Jobs\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis quote sums up the paradox of simplicity – simple is hard.  \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWorking out what the essentials are and how to do things efficiently isn’t just hard, it can seem like more work than just sticking with the complicated path in the first place.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"KISS – easy to say, harder to achieve"},{"content":" You say either and I say either You say neither and I say neither Either, either, neither, neither Let’s call the whole thing off “Let’s call the whole thing off” George and Ira Gershwin\nIt’s good to have an idea of what you are going to be talking about before you start any discussion, but this is vitally important when you are talking about risk. The word is used conversationally and technically in lots of different ways so we need to be clear that we are all speaking the same language to avoid confusion later on.\nThis can become a huge problem in a technical setting where we all think we are taking the same language. Unfortunately, this often isn’t the case.\nI saw this first hand on a large risk assessment project a few years back. After several months collecting information and building risk assessments for each part of the project, we gathered to combine our findings. Half-way through the meeting, someone raised their hand to say that they had been using a different set of definitions and a slightly different risk assessment process. This was incompatible with everyone else’s work so we had to go back and try to unpick all of his data and revise it before we could go on.\nWorst of all, we could have avoided this whole issue if we hadn’t assumed that we were all talking the same language. We should have clarified terms at the outset.\nThere are five commonly used risk management referencesand dozens more regulations, guidelines or company-specific processes. Many of these will have a different definition for risk and its various components. Worst of all, some of these differences will appear quite subtle but make a big difference.\nSo the first thing you need to do is check you are using the same language. Ask ‘how are you defining risk?’ or ‘help me understand what you mean by that?’.\nIf you are using a specific standard or regulation, just refer to that but make sure everyone puts aside their own ‘pet preferences’ and sticks with what’s in the reference. And don’t forget to orientate new project members or to explain the terms to anyone you are sharing the results with.\nSo get everyone onto the same page as early as possible, make sure you are speaking the same language and you will save yourself a lot of time and effort in the long-term.\nHave you come across this problem? Share your thoughts below.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/01/28/the-first-thing-you-need-to-do-in-any-risk-conversation/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eYou say either and I say either\u003c/em\u003e\n\u003cem\u003eYou say neither and I say neither\u003c/em\u003e\n\u003cem\u003eEither, either, neither, neither\u003c/em\u003e\n\u003cem\u003eLet’s call the whole thing off\u003c/em\u003e\n“\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ3fjQa5Hls\"\u003eLet’s call the whole thing off\u003c/a\u003e” George and Ira Gershwin\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s good to have an idea of what you are going to be talking about before you start any discussion, but this is vitally important when you are talking about risk.  The word is used conversationally and technically in lots of different ways so we need to be clear that we are all speaking the same language to avoid confusion later on.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The first thing you need to do in any risk conversation"},{"content":"After the core elements of the risk and incident modules themselves, adding risk mitigation this was the most requested feature people asked for.\nWe rolled this out as a beta feature in December and I’m pleased to say that testing, tweaking and tinkering is over so this feature is ready to go for all TEAM and PRO users.\nYou can now add mitigation for individual risks, allocate an owner and add a due date, all within the app. Any active ‘to-dos’ you have will show up in the ‘My Open Actions’ panel in your dashboard.\nPlus we’ve added alerts so you will get a quick reminder by email when an action is allocated to you or updated.\nThis tightens the process from risk identification —\u0026gt; mitigation —\u0026gt; actions —\u0026gt; close out and keeps everything in one place. This should make mitigation allocation and tracking much faster leaving you more time for the actual to-dos themselves!\nBy the way, you will also see a slight change to the menu when you log in next. All the elements of the ‘risk’ and ‘incident’ modules are now grouped together which seems to be a better fit for how most people are using the app.\nWhat’s the next feature you want to see? Add your suggestions or ideas to the comments below.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/01/24/risk-mitigation-is-out-of-beta/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eAfter the core elements of the risk and incident modules themselves, adding risk mitigation this was the most requested feature people asked for.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe rolled this out as a beta feature in December and I’m pleased to say that testing, tweaking and tinkering is over so this feature is ready to go for all TEAM and PRO users.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/473547ad_screen-shot-mitigation-out-of-beta-2019-01-24-.png\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYou can now add mitigation for individual risks, allocate an owner and add a due date, all within the app. Any active ‘to-dos’ you have will show up in the ‘My Open Actions’ panel in your  dashboard.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk mitigation is out of beta"},{"content":"As a risk manager, you will often be asked to explain the RoI (return on investment) of you, your team, even the whole risk management program.\nEffective risk management can help an organization grasp an opportunity and realizing an upside risk should generate a positive RoI.\nHowever, when you are focussed on shoring up a weak system, plugging gaps and minimizing risks, showing an RoI can be hard. Even so, an inability to show a positive RoI in a cost-conscious environment can threaten investment in your team. It can even make people question the value of the program as a whole.\nI had this time and time again when I was a security risk manager on a major LNG (liquified natural gas) project. This was my first job in the private sector, and I was struggling to re-orientate myself to everything boiling down to dollars and cents (among other things). I had no real way to calculate my RoI, far or less show a positive return. Luckily, I got a great tip from someone: I should still make it about money but to turn the question around.\nInstead of RoI, they suggested I talk about LoI (loss on investment).\nHighlight what you’re protecting, not what you cost Framing discussions in this way allowed me to compare the potential losses – though accidents, incidents and material losses – to the cost of the security program itself. We were LoI positive as long as the losses prevented were greater than our costs.\nAnd even when there were no dollar metrics available, I could equate the cost of the program to insurance showing that we were a minuscule ‘premium’ compared to the value of the assets ‘insured’.\nI could have expressed our ‘savings’ as RoI, but framing our contribution as LoI really allowed me to demonstrate our value. We went from being thought of as a cost to being seen as protecting value even though we still weren’t generating income.\nThis approach helped explain our role in the overall project but it also helped unstick several security projects that were stalled because there had been no tangible RoI.\nHelping exploit an opportunity is the optimum type of risk management and maximizing the upside will lead to a positive RoI. However, most of us are focused on risk minimization and mitigation before we get to that stage. In these situations, instead of talking about your RoI, start discussing your LoI.\nThis will help reinforce your contribution to the business and illustrate the value your team provides. Make this shift and I hope you’ll be as pleasantly surprised as I was with how this can improve the perception of risk management within your organization.\nPlease add your thoughts and comments below. And if you liked this and found it useful, please share it or ‘like’ the post. That’s going to help other people find this material. Thanks!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/01/21/address-your-loi-before-your-roi/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eAs a risk manager, you will often be asked to explain the RoI (return on investment) of you, your team, even the whole risk management program.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEffective risk management can help an organization grasp an opportunity and realizing an upside risk should generate a positive RoI.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, when you are focussed on shoring up a weak system, plugging gaps and minimizing risks, showing an RoI can be hard. Even so, an inability to show a positive RoI in a cost-conscious environment can threaten investment in your team. It can even make people question the value of the program as a whole.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Address your LOI before your ROI"},{"content":"‘Lean’ is a buzzword in software development describing an approach where you conduct lots of short, fast experiments and iterate depending on the outcome.\n‘Lean’ also conjure up images of a racehorse or athlete. Fit, powerful and ready for peak performance.\n‘Lean’ can also means stripped of anything superfluous and free of frills.\nYour risk assessment process needs to include elements of all of these.\nYour need a lean risk assessment process.\nA lean process is going to be faster to implement, should require less time to get from data collection to understanding to decision-making and allows you to react to changes more quickly.\nA lean process is also efficient and requires less in the way of resources and support. A smaller team, shorter interviews, more simple collection, collation and processing of the results and faster reporting: a lean assessment has a relatively small footprint and is something you can run no matter how busy the organization is.\nMoreover, it lets you run more assessments in a similar timeframe so going back to reassess the situation once mitigation is in place is much easier.\nThis speed lets you react quickly to become needs-led, rather than calendar-led. Instead of just conducting quarterly or annual assessments, you can quickly develop an assessment to support decision-makers for a specific project or discussion.\nI’m going to return to this theme several times over the next few weeks and months as I rebuild a lot of the older material on the blog (the RMBC for any Riskademy any veterans out there). However, here are a couple of quick ideas to help adopt a lean approach to your risk assessments.\nStay focused on the task in hand and don’t allow the project to creep into other areas. (But don’t forget to look in the corners.) Get comfortable with a no frills approach. Tight, lean and clutter-free reports will prioritize function over form so you will end up delivering simple written documents instead of fancy presentations. However, you are now delivering quality at speed which carries a premium. Don’t be afraid to take a second pass. Accept that you might find an information gap or a piece of data that seems out of context later. Leave yourself the option to follow up with interviewees and to revisit the assessment at a later date to close any gaps or correct any misconceptions. Standardize the macro, customize the micro. Have a standard, one-size-fits-all top-level process that can be applied in all situations. Build compatible sector- / functional- / scenario-specific tools too but ensure that all assessments use the same basic approach and methodology. Work in orders of magnitude. Sometimes, you may need to express a loss to the nearest dollar but for a mid-sized business, there’s no probably meaningful difference between a loss of $3,500 versus $5,100. However, being able to differentiate a $5,000 loss from a $50,000 loss is important. Use the largest units of measure you can while still giving enough detail for the decision-makers. Classify, don’t measure. Have a system where you are trying to prioritize risks for action, not calculate a hard value. Use ratings to differentiate between the ‘now’ problems and ‘next month’ problems which is invaluable for decision-makers. Rig the system. Instead of a linear system, use something that gives you an exponential output to clearly separate middle-of-the-pack risks from those that need urgent attention. This avoids spongy, messy clusters where it is difficult to differentiate between risks of different severity. (This is kind of dorky but read more about metrics here.) Accept uncertainty. Risk assessments are discussions of what might happen: there will always be unknowns or unexpected situations that crop up, no matter how detailed your assessment. However, with a lean approach, you can quickly incorporate a change in the situation – when an unknown becomes a known – to update the assessment and to keep it current. This isn’t a definitive list nor a playbook for lean risk assessment system but hopefully there are a few ideas above that you can put into practice to get your risk assessment into better shape.\nI’m looking forward to sharing the updated material with you over the next few weeks so join in and help make 2019 the year of the lean risk assessment.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/01/15/stay-lean/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e‘Lean’ is a buzzword in software development describing an approach where you conduct lots of short, fast experiments and iterate depending on the outcome.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e‘Lean’ also conjure up images of a racehorse or athlete. Fit, powerful and ready for peak performance.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e‘Lean’ can also means stripped of anything superfluous and free of frills.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYour risk assessment process needs to include elements of all of these.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eYour need a lean risk assessment process.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Stay lean"},{"content":"There are lots of reasons you might be looking for risk management software but there’s one thing that everyone wants.\nMore time.\nDCDR doesn’t have a time-travel module but the app does help you get back time. A lot of time, in fact. Time that you’d otherwise spend entering data, formatting reports and creating graphs and charts.\n**However, we also noticed that people often don’t even have the time to get set up on the system in the first place. **\nBasically, people are so busy that they don’t have the time to get set up on a system that will save them huge amounts of time….\nThis means that they don’t get a chance to see how DCDR can be 5x or 10x faster than other risk management options, saving them hours and hours.\nLuckily, we also have a solution for that.\nIntroducing concierge onboarding Send us your existing data* and we will format everything and load it into the system so it’s all there for you, ready to go. That way, you can log into your account and your incidents, locations and assessment data is all there, ready to go.\nConcierge onboarding is available to PRO and TEAM users with a paid subscription now.\n[Contact us for more information and to get started](mailto:chat@dcdr.io?subject=Concierge Onboarding).\n** Some restrictions apply to the type and volume of data that can be uploaded. Contact us for more info.*\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/01/14/concierge-onboarding/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eThere are lots of reasons you might be looking for risk management software but there’s one thing that everyone wants.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMore time.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDCDR doesn’t have a time-travel module but the app does help you get back time.  A lot of time, in fact.  Time that you’d otherwise spend entering data, formatting reports and creating graphs and charts.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e**However, we also noticed that people often don’t even have the time to get set up on the system in the first place.  **\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Concierge onboarding"},{"content":"Your biggest risks aren’t usually the ones staring you in the face\nThe big ticket items – the ones that are at the top of everyone’s list, the first thing the CEO wants to talk about – aren’t usually the biggest risk you’re facing.\nThese might be the biggest threats.\nThese might reflect everyone’s biggest fear.\nBut because these are so well known. Because these get so much attention, you’re probably spending a lot of time and effort on these risks. The result is thatthese are closely monitored, well mitigated and heavily managed so the resultant risk is relatively benign.\nInstead, your biggest risks are hiding in the corners.\nNo-one knows what’s in the corner First, corner scenarios, the ‘edge cases’, are often overlooked because these seem too remote, too complicated or there simply isn’t the bandwidth left over once the big ticket items have been addressed.\nSo no-one looks in the corners and asks ‘what if…?’. No-one spends the time digging into these issues which might be less urgent, but are much more important. The result is that your biggest risk is hiding in the corner, overlooked and ignored. No-one knows it’s there.\nBut sometimes, everyone knows… But there’s another reason that the corners are overlooked.\nBecause people know exactly what’s there.\nThe CEO’s wandering hands and excesses on the company dime; the regional manager whose success is based on bribes and backhanders; the lax accounting standards in one division; the unreported spills and accidents that go on in the field.\nThese are also hidden in the corners. These are corners that no-one talks about and where people know not to look. But everyone knows what’s there.\nThis isn’t accepting a risk. This is burying a risk.\nBut, as Colin Powell famously remarked, “Bad news isn’t wine. It doesn’t improve with age.”\nSo simply ignoring these corners just makes for a bigger problem later on. And when these risks – the ones everyone knew about but overlooked – blow up and become full-blown crises you’re faced with a double problem.\nFirst is the risk itself and the damage that causes. That obviously needs to be fixed.\nBut you also need to address the fact that you knew about the problem and did nothing. You lied and said everything was fine when you knew it wasn’t. And that reputational damage is much more difficult to recover from.\nCheck your corners So whether you haven’t been able to find the time to look and don’t know what’s there.\nOr you know exactly what’s there but have been scared to look.\nStart looking in those corners.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2019/01/08/your-biggest-risks-are-in-the-corners/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eYour biggest risks aren’t usually the ones staring you in the face\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe big ticket items – the ones that are at the top of everyone’s list, the first thing the CEO wants to talk about – aren’t usually the biggest risk you’re facing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese might be the biggest threats.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese might reflect \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2017/04/03/wdymb-risk-perception-and-risk-communication/\"\u003eeveryone’s biggest fear\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBut because these are so well known. Because these get so much attention, you’re probably spending a lot of time and effort on these risks. The result is that\u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2017/04/28/wdymbaddress-risks/\"\u003ethese are closely monitored, well mitigated and heavily managed\u003c/a\u003e so the resultant risk is relatively benign.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Your biggest risks are in the corners"},{"content":"It was the highpoint of a recent meeting with a large firm’s corporate security team. While we were showing them around DCDR, the CSO leaned over to a colleague and said\n“I love the simplicity“.\nCue smiles from our side….\nOur intent was always to make the best piece of risk management software possible and a key part of that was to keep things simple. However, as time goes on, it’s easy to lose sight of the original concept, to add ‘just one more feature’ and eventually end up with a Frankenstein’s monster which looks nothing like your original idea (and that everybody hates).\nSo hearing “I love the simplicity” was music to my ears.\nConfirmation that we were still heading in the right direction. But also a reminder of where our focus needs to be in 2019. So there’s a growing list of things to cut, shrink and hide to make DCDR cleaner and easier to use for users. KISS, KISS, KISS….\nBut more simple doesn’t mean less powerful.\nJust the opposite. While the front-end is being streamlined, there’s a lot happening behind the scenes to make the platform more powerful, more intuitive and even more simple to use. We can’t wait to share these with you.\nHave a suggestion? Leave a comment below.\nThere are also going to be some changes to the blog and newsletter to focus on more bite-sized, actionable content. Part of this is an updated set of mini-courses based on the old Risk Management Basics Course. Look out for these to begin in late January.\nSo our theme for 2019 is simplicity and brevity.\nAnd to get started on the right foot, all that’s left to say is Happy Hogmanay* and best wishes for the New Year.\nHave an awesome 2019 – we plan to!\n~Andrew\n** Bagpipes and torch-bearing vikings optional but highly encouraged!*\nDon’t forget, if you have a suggestion, please leave a comment below.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/12/31/and-theme-for-2019-is/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIt was the highpoint of a recent meeting with a large firm’s corporate security team.  While we were showing them around DCDR, the CSO leaned over to a colleague and said\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“\u003cem\u003eI love the simplicity\u003c/em\u003e“.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCue smiles from our side….\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOur intent was always to make the best piece of risk management software possible and a key part of that was to keep things simple. However, as time goes on, it’s easy to lose sight of the original concept, to add ‘just one more feature’ and eventually \u003ca href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\"\u003eend up with a Frankenstein’s monster which looks nothing like your original idea (and that everybody hates)\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"And theme for 2019 is…"},{"content":" Failure is not Definitely an Option People agree that starting a business is risky and although the failure rates might not be as dire as people like to say, 20% fail in their first year and only 50% make it to five years. A decade in, only 30% are still around (Stats courtesy of Fundera.).\nA tech startup takes that to a whole new level because of the additional layers of uncertainty that technology imposes. Startup’s risks are significant.\nUnlike a coffee shop or shoe store which can use relatively accessible market data for planning, most tech startups are operating in newer, untested areas. Some are even pushing the boundaries of medical science or the laws of physics. Startups aren’t a single sector so there is no single model geography, market or user-group for a startup.\nHowever, you’re an entrepreneur with a vision so you aren’t going to stop tackling your world-changing idea just because the odds are stacked against you. But what can you do to improve those odds?\nUnfortunately, most articles titled ‘startup risks’ give you very superficial advice and certainly not enough to turn into an actionable plan. These are similar to growth articles that tell you to ‘make more sales’. Duh!\nHowever, that doesn’t mean you can’t improve your odds and you do that by understanding and managing your risks. What’s outlined here is a simple risk management framework that you can apply to your startup to better understand and prepare for the things that threaten your success.\nBest of all, it doesn’t take long and you already have most of the information you need.\nKISS Risk management might sound like the kind of thing that your startup won’t need for years, the kind of thing you think about when you have your own in-house lawyer and accounting team. By that stage, you will definitely be thinking about risk management, especially if you plan to IPO. However, if you start managing your startup risks now, you will have a better chance of actually getting to that stage.\nPlus, risk management doesn’t have to be complicated.\nIn the same way that you can start coding with:\nprint(\u0026ldquo;Hello World!\u0026rdquo;)\ninstead of:\nusing System; namespace HelloWorld { class Hello { static void Main() { Console.WriteLine(\u0026ldquo;Hello World!\u0026rdquo;);\n// Keep the console window open in debug mode. Console.WriteLine(\u0026quot;Press any key to exit.\u0026quot;); Console.ReadKey(); } } }\nYou can start risk management with a simple approach that will scale as you grow.\nRisk Management 101 Before we get into the model in detail, here’s a very quick primer on risk and risk management. Definitions are boring but necessary here because risk management is something where people often disagree on terms\nA simple definition for risk is ‘the effect of uncertainty on objectives‘ (this is the ISO definition). It’s how the things we don’t understand and manage properly can prevent us from reaching our goal. Two key risk management processes are: A risk assessment is how you can understand what your challenges are. Risk management is the process to reduce or overcome the risks you identify. To help us assess risks, we can break each risk into its component parts. These are:\nThreat – What is the negative thing that could happen? Vulnerability – What is in place to prevent this or how prepared are we for this event? Impact – How badly would this event affect our plans if it happened? If you understand the above points, that’s all you need to know far as definitions or the technicalities of risk management. Now we’re going to move on to how to apply this to your business to assess and understand your startup risks.\nThree Questions The simplest way to understand your risk is to ask a series of three questions for each of the main areas of startup risk. These questions allow you to understand the threats to your business, how vulnerable you are and what impact an event might have.\nHow severe is the negative thing that could happen? (Threat) What is in place or how well prepared are we to avoid or prevent this? (Vulnerability) If this event happened, how badly would this affect our plans? (Impact) Once you have run through these questions, you will be able to prioritize your risks and start to take preventative action.\nThreat Categories To help add some structure, I’ve grouped similar threat types together to make discussions easier. The categories are shown in bold and the individual threats to think about are also listed.\nMarket\nPotential market Market saturation / dominance (existing) Competition (emerging) Financial\nAvailability of funding Cash-flow / burn rate Financial model Statutory / Political / Regulatory\nGovernment regulation Political support / opposition Applicable statutes Safety / Security / Health\nThreats to venture Threats to users Environmental\nEnvironmental effects Environmental threats License to Operate / Reputation\nReputation of the founders Reputation of the firm / associated brand Public perception of the venture / sector Technology / Infrastructure\nTechnical challenges Infrastructure challenges Dependencies People\nFounders Skilled individuals Grouping threats like this will make your discussions easier and it’s also going to help later when you get to the actual risk management part because the same person will usually own similar threats (e.g. the CTO will own technology / infrastructure, the CFO might own Financial and market, etc.)\nAt this stage, you might think that some of these threats don’t apply and you will be tempted to strike these off the list.\nDon’t. Leave them there for now because you might be surprised what poses a threat once you have thought about it.\nYou might also need to add to this list, depending upon any specific threat to your startup. Again, you know your business best so feel free to add factors where necessary. The only advice that I would give is to try to avoid having too many specifics at this stage. You can always add more later but we are trying to keep things simple at this stage.\nScoring and Calculations Scoring Scoring can get out of hand and become very complicated, very quickly, so it’s best to keep it simple. That said, you should have a combination of quantitative (numbers), qualitative (descriptions) and visual (color coding) to help ‘score’ each element as this helps with calculations, discussions and presentations of the data respectively.\nThis mix allows you to describe something (‘Moderate’) in a discussion, apply a value (‘3’) for scoring and color-code the results (‘amber‘) all within the same system.\nCalculations The overall risk ratings use similar colors and terminology but the values are shown in a 1 – 100 range. We defined risk as:\nrisk = threat x vulnerability x impact\nSo the calculation using the 1 – 5 values is:\nr = tvi/1.25\nThis gives you a result between 1 and 100 which you then use to order your risks from highest (worst and most urgent) to lowest. You can read more about risk metrics and this system here.\nThis is a relatively straightforward assessment as there are only 21 elements so a spreadsheet can work (there’s a template for one here). Alternately, you can use software to speed up and simplify the process. Whatever you do, just make sure the system is stable and that everyone is applying the metrics consistently.\nOnce you have scored each risk, list them in descending order to work out which fire needs putting out first.\nMandatory Public Safety Announcement\nRemember, you are in the early stages of a startup so many (all?) of your risks will score pretty highly. You already know that, it just looks worse when it’s written down in detail so don’t be alarmed if everything comes up red.\nBringing it all Together Here’s the process for understanding and managing your startup risks in full.\nFor each element, ask: - How severe is the negative thing that could happen? (Threat) - What is in place or how well prepared are we to avoid or prevent this? (Vulnerability) - If this event happened, how badly would this affect our plans? (Impact) Evaluate each element and give it a value for threat, vulnerability and impact to give us an overall score. Compare the risks to determine which needs to be addressed most urgently. Design and implement ways to bring our risks down as low as possible. (More on this in Part II.) Review and repeat. Again, this doesn’t need to be a complicated or time consuming process. Big organizations will spend months on these but you won’t have time for that. However, you only need to carve out a couple of hours per month to do this and you will be in much better shape.\nThat’s It And that’s all there is to it. Think about your startup and the threats that you face using the categories suggested above. Then, ask yourself the three questions and score the results.\nOnce you’ve done that, you will end up with a numeric score for each element so you can prioritize these for action.\nAs I said, everything is going to run hot in a startup and you will end up with a lot of ‘reds,’ but now you at least have a better understand what you are dealing with. Most importantly, you might spot some left-field threats that weren’t on your radar before.\nMay the Odds be ever in your Favor…. If you are reading this, then you know running a startup is hard. And turning that into a successful business is even harder.\nBut we owe it to ourselves, our users and investors (and our families) to give our ideas the best chance of success. The failure rate will still be high – we are doing hard things so that’s to be expected – but we can stack the odds in our favor if we really understand what our risks look like. I hope this system you understand and manage your risks.\nGood luck and may the odds be ever in your favor…\nYou can find a lot more detail on risk, risk management and even try the DCDR risk management tool at DCDR.io.\nI’d love to know what you think – please leave a comment below.\nNote A – Threat Statement Examples *One quick caveat. Examples help explain something like this but examples also start to add biases into the calculations. So when you look at the example below, please keep in mind that these are general statements for illustration, not hard and fast definitions for lower versus higher threats. (I’m deliberately using the more general low / high terms here too for that reason.) *\nExample Threat Statements Here are some examples of the answers that you might find when you ask about the threat from each element. The grid below shows the kinds of statement that would result in a lower or higher results but again, make sure you are thinking about your startup, your market and your challenges when you complete your assessment.\nKeep in mind that threats are events that are normally outside the control of the organization. For example, under ‘cashflow’ the threat is cash flow in your field generally is high or low. So if you are doing biomedicine, your burn rate is going to be very high compared to something wholly browser-based. You might be able to control your cash flow and do things faster and cheaper (maybe that’s your secret sauce) but you address that in the next section.\nExample Threat Statements\nLow High\nMarket\nPotential market There is a well-defined, validated market for the offering.There is no clear market for the offering.\nMarket saturation / dominance (existing) The market is new and no mature players operate in the space.The market is mature and is dominated by a single entity with significant competitive advantages.\nCompetition (emerging) Interest in this space seems limited.There are multiple capable and competent startups entering this areaFinancial\nAvailability of funding There is a lot of interest in funding ventures in this spaceThere are very few opportunities to raise funds.\nCash-flow / burn rate Cash-flow / burn rate in this space is very lowCash-flow / burn rate in this space is very high\nFinancial model The financial model projects high profit margins and rapid profitabilityThe financial model projects very low margins and a long path to profitabilityStatutory / Political / Regulatory\nGovernment regulation There are no specific government regulations relating to this sectorThis is a highly regulated sector\nPolitical support / opposition There is no known political opposition to this type of ventureThere is significant opposition to this type of venture\nApplicable statutes No specific statutes apply to this sectorThis sectors has to comply with multiple statutes which differ by locationSafety / Security / Health\nThreats to venture There are no specific Safety / Security / Health threatsThe venture faces significant, persistent security threats\nThreats to users Users do not face any significant or unique threats from the technology.Users face significant physical danger if the technology failsEnvironmental\nEnvironmental effects The venture has no notable environmental impactThe venture imposes a significant burden on the environment due to waste products / resource usage.\nEnvironmental threats There are no specific environmental threats to the ventureCritical parts of the venture are based in areas of environmental instabilityLicense to operate / reputation\nReputation of the founders The founders have a positive reputationThere is significant skepticism or distrust of the founders\nReputation of the firm / associated brand The firm and brand and well regardedThe firm and brand are tarnished\nPublic perception of the venture / sector The public is well-disposed to operators in this sectorThe public is hostile to operators in this sectorTechnology / Infrastructure\nTechnical challenges The technical challenges are well understood and have been overcome previouslyThe technical challenges are largely unknown\nInfrastructure challenges Widely available, stable infrastructure is availableThere is no supporting infrastructure\nDependencies There are no specific dependencies required to make the venture operationalThe venture is wholly dependent on third-party dependencies.People\nFounders The founding team has the ability and temperament required to make the venture succeed.The founding team has very few applicable skills or experience.\nSkilled individuals The venture has a deep bench of skilled talentThere are no skilled individuals within the venture (e.g. everything is outsourced).\nWant this whole article as a PDF? [Just send me an email](mailto:andrew@dcdr.io?subject=send me that sweet startup risk article).\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/12/02/understand-your-startup-risks/","summary":"\u003ch2\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"failure-is-notdefinitely-an-option\"\u003eFailure is not Definitely an Option\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePeople agree that starting a business is risky and although the failure rates might not be as dire as people like to say, 20% fail in their first year and only 50% make it to five years. A decade in, only 30% are still around (\u003ca href=\"https://www.fundera.com/blog/what-percentage-of-small-businesses-fail\"\u003eStats courtesy of Fundera.\u003c/a\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA tech startup takes that to a whole new level because of the additional layers of uncertainty that technology imposes. Startup’s risks are significant.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Stack the Odds in your Favor (I): How to Understand your Startup Risks"},{"content":"Conducting a risk assessment is a big project and, like any big project, there are a lot of things between you and success. However, there are five common risk assessment problems that crop up time and time again. These make the difference between success and failure no matter what else you do. Keep these five problems in mind and plan accordingly to maximize the chances of success with your next risk assessment.\nUnfinished Business Since 2002, I’ve been involved in well over 100 risk assessments as both an in-house risk manager or as a consultant.\nActually, let me rephrase that.\nSince 2002, I’ve been involved at the beginning of well over 100 risk assessments. However, I’ve seen many fewer risk assessment completed. Of those completed assessments, fewer still actually get turned into any kind of meaningful action.\nTake a minute and think about your organization. How many risk assessments were started but then fizzled out? Even when a risk assessment was completed, how often were the recommendations acted upon? Did anyone really know what to do next? How many of these assessments are in a forgotten folder or gathering dust on a shelf somewhere?\nThis has always frustrated me: an incomplete risk assessment, or one that doesn’t prompt corrective action, is unsatisfying, and a waste of time and money. Worst of all, it erodes the organization’s faith in the whole risk management process. This makes people question the importance or usefulness of a risk management system as a whole.\nI’ve done a review of the assessments that I’ve seen started versus those that were also completed successfully to identify what makes the difference. I noticed that the same five risk assessment problems cropped up time and time again. At a minimum, these will make your assessment much more difficult. At worst, these will kill your assessment altogether.\nNo Mandate or Buy-in Management support and buy-in is critical for any major initiative to succeed. You will definitely need this for something that requires you to poke around into the organization’s deepest, darkest corners and then tell people to change their work habits. Make sure that you have genuine buy-in from senior management before you start. You also need to make sure that this mandate is is public. This will ensure that everyone involved knows that you are working with the support of the senior management.\nEven then, that might not be enough to guarantee plain sailing.\nYears ago, I was on a three-month project with an oil and gas firm in West Africa. They had contracted me to conduct for a risk assessment and develop a series of corrective steps to help comply with some maritime regulations. This had all been agreed and sanctioned by their corporate security team who had issued the contract. However, the local Operations Manager didn’t think this was necessary. Every week, we would meet to review the project. And every week, he would spend the first half of the meeting telling me why it was a waste of time.\nThis made the project more challenging but at least I had the mandate from Corporate Security to fall back on. Without that, the Operations Manager would have simply stonewalled me and the risk assessment would have fizzled out.\nI think that the lack of a mandate from senior leadership is the single biggest risk assessment problem you can face and the one that will have the greatest impact on the success or failure of your assessment.\nLacking Resources A mandate without resources is almost as bad.\nMake sure that you have the support you need to actually see this through. Do you need additional staff? What about a travel budget to get you to the various sites? Do you need external consultants or to buy software?\nAnd what about time?\nDo managers across the organization know that the senior leadership team wants them to allocate time to this? Has your time been freed up to complete the task or is this yet another ‘to-do’ on your list?\nYou can complete a risk assessment from your desk. However, without the time and resources required, it will be a thin piece of work which will make definitive action difficult. Make sure that your mandate also includes approval for the resources you need.\nUnclear Purpose In case you think that I was being too hard on the Ops Manager I mentioned before, he did one thing right.\nHe’d always ask “Tell me again, why are we doing this?”\nAlthough it was frustrating to rehash the conversation each week, he wasn’t wrong to keep asking that question. If you don’t have a purpose for your risk assessment, you will lose your way and are unlikely to fulfill the mandate.\nFor example, an annual risk assessment to meet a compliance requirement will look different from a pre-merger assessment of a potential partner. Without keeping the end result in mind, you and the assessment could easily get off track.\nSo keep asking what’s the purpose? Who is going to implement the mitigation? Is there even a need for an action plan or is this more of an ‘academic’ survey?\nRemember, thatthe risk assessment is part of a bigger risk management process. You need to do something with the results so have a clear purpose and a defined path to turn the report into action within a specific time frame.\nUnclear Process Sometimes, teams can get quite far on in the risk assessment process before they start to think about how they will actually assess the risks. A lack of clarity about the methodology, language and metrics that you are planning to use at the start of an assessment has significant repercussions later on.\nThe worst example of this was a major assessment that I was involved in where two different groups were using two different methodologies! Safe to say, bringing the whole assessment together was an emotional time.\nLuckily, we had the time and resources needed to fix this problem. Without that buffer, the whole thing would have been a write-off.\nIt’s worth noting that everyone involved was a risk management professional and we should definitely have known better. Our mistake was to assume that we were all using the same process without explicitly checking before we started. If we had been a less experienced team, we probably wouldn’t have made this mistake as we would have spent time discussing and confirming the assessment process.\nMake sure that everyone involved understands the process and methodology that you are using from the get-go. At a minimum, this will save you a lot of work later. Otherwise, the results could be so garbled as to be unusable and you will have run out of time.\nToo Specialized / Esoteric Finally, keep things simple. There are a lot of different risk assessment methodologies and I have been guilty of looking for a better mousetrap at times. As someone who has dabbled in security risk management, I would say that security teams are repeat offenders here with no sign of giving up anytime soon.\nBut if what you produce is too specialized or esoteric, it’s probably not something that the rest of the organization can use. Using a totally untested methodology, producing a report solely in emoticons or using 17 different shades of red to show risks is going to be really interesting. Really, really interesting!\nHowever, it will unlikely to be very effective.\nSo remember KISS. Make sure that your work will align with the organization’s risk management system and adhere to whatever guidelines or regulations are in place.\nThe Overlooked Risk Assessment Problem is… I said that there were five problems but in addition to the challenges listed above, there’s a sixth, squishier problem.\nPeople simply lose interest.\nEvery organization has a lot going on, everyone is ‘busy’ but people also have limited attention spans. So they get bored with the risk assessment and it gets less and less attention. Or something more shiny and exciting comes along which takes priority. This happens even when they have paid – or may still be paying – a lot for consultants to manage this process.\nThe result is a zombie project: one that’s stumbling along, not fully dead, waiting for someone to put it out of its misery.\nThink about your project like a gym membership. Most people are only interested in the first month or two. After that, you will see a real drop-off in interest so plan accordingly.\nTightly schedule interviews and make sure the participants see some results within a few weeks. Plan things in six or eight week sprints, not a six-month slog. And embrace ‘good enough.’ The ‘perfect’ 12-month long plan doesn’t exist and trying create that only benefits one group: consultants who get paid by the hour.\nStack the Odds in your Favor There are other things that can go wrong and derail your risk assessment. Civil unrest, key staff being fired or the company simply goes out of business. I’ve seen projects abandoned for all these reasons. *But these are the exceptions. *The six issues noted above recur time and time again. These account for the majority of abandoned or unsuccessful risk assessments.\nKeep these in mind when you are planning your assessment and you are much more likely to achieve your aim. This way you can stack the odds in your favor and see the whole process through. Don’t just add another file to the abandoned projects stack.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/11/01/five-risk-assessment-problems-to-fix/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eConducting a risk assessment is a big project and, like any big project, there are a lot of things between you and success.  However, there are five common risk assessment problems that crop up time and time again. These make the difference between success and failure no matter what else you do.  Keep these five problems in mind and plan accordingly to maximize the chances of success with your next risk assessment.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Five Risk Assessment Problems that Threaten your Next Assessment"},{"content":"I received an email a while back from someone just making their start in risk management asking if I had any thoughts or advice on the risk management skills they needed. The response quickly became several pages long and I thought it was worth turning it into a blog piece that others might benefit from. This could also be titled ‘Letter to a 30-year old me’ or a 40-year old me..\nGetting started in any career or specialist field can be daunting and risk management is no different. There are many challenges out there and some will continue to crop up as long as you are practicing risk management. Here, in no particular order, are 10 risk management skills or abilities you should look to develop as you embark on your career as a risk manager.\n1. Identify the Differences Between Theory and Practice Most people have some kind of theoretical training before they get their start in risk management. Even someone who has been a practitioner should formalize their knowledge and skills before taking on a risk manager role. This is the approach I took and I found that I gained a great deal from some formal study. However, now that your technical risk management skills are in place, you will quickly discover that there are big differences between theory and practice. One of the first things you have to do is figure these differences out.\nHow Theory is Interpreted There will always be some differences between risk theory / regulatory structures and what things looks like in reality, even in highly regulated industries. This could be as simple as using different terminology for a group (e.g. is the risk committee called something else?) or is a different methodology used for assessing risks?\nThese changes are necessary to ensure that the theory or regulation can be applied effectively within the organization. Most standards and guidance documents will include words to the effect that organizations can adapt the standard as long as they adhere to the central tenets.\nThis will usually result in the organization creating some kind of risk management policy and procedure explaining how risk management is managed in practice. These documents translate the theory into practical steps and will act as your day-to-day guidance for what you need to do.\nThink of this as how is the theory is interpreted.\nHow Theory is Applied Even if the theory or standard has been adopted without alteration, you need to understand what this looks like in practice. How is a risk assessment conducted? How does the risk committee meet? What is the format for the risk register? These are all things that you need to understand.\nSometimes there will be differences in procedures within the organization and some departments may apply the guidelines differently. There may be good reasons for this. For example, a department may have to follow a specific regulation. This can make it difficult to get a clear picture of how risk management is really practiced. Nevertheless, you need to understand what the day-to-day system looks like.\nThink of this as how the theory is applied.\nMind the Gap(s) Once you understand how the theory is interpreted and applied, you will be able to operate within the organization’s risk management system. You can also put your theoretical risk management skills and knowledge to better use. Now you can now relate your theoretical knowledge to the practical, day-to-day risk activities in your organization.\nAlways keep the theoretical in mind. Sometimes rules are adapted or interpreted in such a way that they diverge from the intent of the theory or regulation. You are in a good position to spot any gaps between theory and practice as your knowledge is still fresh.\nRemember that things Change Remember, theories are amended and regulations get updated so keep educating yourself. Stay up to date on developments in the field particularly as it applies to your sector. This will help you maintain a good sense of the theory as a touchstone you can always refer to.\n2. Get to know your Organization and Industry Read as much as you can about your organization and try to conduct your own personal ‘tour of the business.’ This helps you get to know how the organization works and you can then apply this to your role. For example, you will start to see where a rule or regulation might place undue pressure on a specific part of the business. Others might be required to change their work practices to comply. Going back to point #1 above, this will help you see how the regulations are applied, to spot gaps and to make suggestions.\nTo learn about the business, just try asking people something along the lines of\n“I’m keen to learn my way around organization. Can I have 15 minutes of your time to understand what it is you and your department do?”\nEven if you aren’t able or feel comfortable walking into someone’s office to try to set this up, you can often grab people after a meeting and ask them for a few minutes of their time.\nI have found people to be incredibly generous with their time and have benefited from hours and hours of one-on-one tuition in everything from deep water drilling to pharmaceutical trials just by asking someone for a 15 minute chat over coffee. It’s much easier to say you don’t understand something when you are just starting so take advantage of being ‘new’ to the business. That said, you should never be afraid to say that you don’t understand something, even if you have been around a business for a while.\nThis is also a great way to practice asking good questions and listening which I think are critical risk management skills (see #9 below).\n3. Ask ‘why?’ a Lot (but keep it yourself to start with) To really understand a process, I think it’s useful to ask ‘why we doing it like this?’ So rather than just following the process from A through Z, try to understand why things are the way they are. That helps you really understand the overall intent and differentiate between steps that may seem similar but have significantly different purposes.\nFor example, there may be two notifications to be made once an activity is complete. One of these may be for internal audit whereas the other might be a mandatory external reporting requirements. Both are important but the implications of missing the second step would be more significant.\nAnother reason to ask why? is you can find ways to make processes more effective. You might find that some steps are there because of outdated practices or old systems that have since been phased out. You don’t have to suggest wide-spread changes on your first day in the organization but there will be opportunities to suggest improvements along the way.\nUnderstanding why systems operate the way that they do may also help determine why errors have occurred or spot potential breaches the future. You bring a fresh, objective perspective to things which is a real advantage over those who have lived with the system for years.\n4. It’s not just about Compliance and Regulatory Risk Organizations face a wide range of threats on top of those that arise from a regulatory breach. Changes in the economy can threaten the organization’s business if the client base dries up. Bad behavior by senior executives can harm an organization’s reputation. Compromising your customer information will have both legal and reputational consequences.\nWhatever your specific risk management specialty, you should try to maintain as broad a view of the risks your organization faces as possible. If you keep asking ‘so what?’ you might spot threats that might otherwise be overlooked.\n5. Learn to Speak Money Know how everything in the business is valued. Be able to explain things in dollars and cents. Know what a unit of time costs so you can understand the trade-off between\nWith very few exceptions, what happens in an organization comes down to money. Even if you think of time or resources, these still equate to salaries and costs. Being able to think in Dollars, Euros, Dinars or Pesos, allows you to understand how risks can impact the business and what the costs of mitigation are.\nRemember that despite any other metrics tracked, businesses are judged on their short-term financial performance. Even complying with regulation can come down to a financial decision. I have seen companies pay a fine of hundreds of thousands of dollars rather than incur the greater expense required to make changes to comply with a law.\n6. Be Data / Fact Driven and Objective (Until you Need to be Subjective) Have the facts at hand to back up whatever you are saying or advising. This could be a set of guidelines, internal data or a set of observations collected in interviews. This also includes having well-defined levels for risk appetite and risk tolerance which can be used as benchmarks.\nFacts and an objective approach helps strengthen your argument but also de-personalizes things. This way, you can have a robust discussion with others but it is the facts that are disputed, not someone’s opinion.\nThere is a time and place for subjectivity but I think that starting with a set of objective data points is key for the risk manager. You can think of this mix of data and gut feeling informed intuition.\n“I like to be really data-driven, but I don’t ignore the human instinct element of it. For me, my process is, a lot of times, roll around in the data, get to know it and really understand it really well, and then make a gut-based call, which is often supported by data and a lot of hard-to-articulate factors as well.” Marissa Mayer on the ‘Masters of Scale’ podcast with Reid Hoffman\n7. Think about what you will do when you are asked to Change an Assessment As a risk manager, you will often be the bearer of bad news. Either there’s a problem that you’ve uncovered or you found an activity that exceeds the agreed levels of risk tolerance and needs to be stopped.\nIn these cases, you may find yourself under enormous pressure to make changes to soften things. In the worst case scenario, you might be asked to ignore things altogether. These requests are often very subtle and a small omission or tweak by itself might not mean much. However, if you allow lots of omissions or soften all your assessments, you end up with a system that’s ineffective.\nThis is when being data driven is very useful. It’s much harder to change things that arise from data, observations and empirical findings compared to anything that is more subjective.\nI won’t pretend that doing the right thing is simple – if it were, I don’t think Wells Fargo would have had the problems that they did. It can be really hard, especially when you are just starting out!\nOf all the risk management skills, this might be the hardest to master. All I can advise is to judge each situation as it comes and do what you feel is right. You may have to pick your battles but be careful not to start overlooking small things because this can make it difficult to take a stand later. You have to be able to look yourself in the eye when you brush your teeth each morning. If you can’t, you probably aren’t doing the right thing.\nKeep a note of your work and have a written back up of what you advise, suggest and submit. If you are uncomfortable with a recommended change, get that in writing. Either ask for written amendment or send a polite follow-up email after the meeting. E.g. * ‘I just wanted to confirm the key changes requested on the XYZ report…’ *Just make sure you aren’t the last one left standing when the music stops.\nIn all but the most exceptional of organizations, if your assessments don’t make people slightly uncomfortable, then you aren’t digging deep enough. The risk assessment report shouldn’t be a comfort blanket telling people what they are doing right. It’s there to tell them what is threatening their organization. You are supposed to be telling them what’s wrong so they can fix it.\nThis doesn’t mean you need to be confrontational, just honest.\n8. Remember, Risk is a Support Function It can be easy to forget that our own role isn’t the most important thing in a business, especially for something as important as risk management. Nevertheless, we are still in a support role. Keep your eye on the organization’s overall objectives and ensure that you are supporting these with your work.\nLearn how to negotiate, build alliances, cooperate and compromise with other functions and departments. This will help you fulfill your role when there are additional pressures or limitations. Also, remember point #5 – learn to speak money. Keep reminding yourself of the financial implications of what you are doing.\n9. Soft Skills are Risk Management Skills too Quick – what’s the most important risk management skill? Being an Excel whiz? Great at math? A love of detail? A passion for checklists?\nWhat about being a good listener?\nIf you aren’t a good listener, you’ll miss the key piece of data that explains why something isn’t working. You’ll ignore that all-important pause before someone answers a hard question. You won’t pick up that you are getting ‘canned’ answers and aren’t getting a realistic picture of things.\nBeing an effective risk manager requires you to mix softer skills alongside your technical risk management skills. Good interpersonal skills, problem solving and imagination are critical ‘softer’ skills. These skills develop as your emotional intelligence grows but start working on these as early as possible.\nRisk management is so much more than simply being the ‘regulations police.’ There are creative ways to mitigate risks but you won’t find them without these soft skills.\n10. Finally, Find a Path that Excites You* No matter what stage you are at in life or your career, as a risk manager, you have the opportunity to do all kinds of interesting things. You will be involved in important decisions to make your organization more effective, stay ‘on the straight and narrow’ and help the people you serve.\nAnd you have a pretty wide remit.\nRisk management covers everything in an organization: every location, every function and every activity. You have an excuse to noodle around and learn, developing and expanding your risk manager skills along the way. This will make your day-to-day work more interesting and you can start to focus on areas that you find more interesting.\nWant to make a better CDO? Interested in mitigating kidnapping risk? Attracted to the challenges of managing reputational risk? Each of these is very different but they all require a solid understanding of risk management principles to do well.\nI’ve been a risk manager for over 15 years and am still being challenged by the range of what falls under ‘risk management’. I love picking apart a problem, trying to work out the root cause or solve an issue. I’m grateful I can sit with senior executives from all kinds of different organizations and learn about their businesses. I learn something new with every client engagement or project and am continually developing my risk management skills. However, there is still a huge amount that I don’t know and unexpected areas of knowledge to explore.\nI won’t pretend that there isn’t also a lot of stress with some engagements. Wading through a new regulation can be a dull way to spend an evening or weekend. Thankfully, there are multiple paths available to you, one of which will ignite an enthusiasm and passion which you can bring to your role. This will more than make up for having to wade your way through that next set of audit reports!\n*A young person I know warned me that “old people always tell young people to have fun. Don’t do that” so I changed this title. (But do try to have fun too.)\nPhoto by emily reider on Unsplash\nI hope you found this useful but let me know what you think. Add your thoughts in the comments below.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/10/15/10-risk-management-skills-to-master/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eI received an email a while back from someone just making their start in risk management asking if I had any thoughts or advice on the risk management skills they needed.  The response quickly became several pages long and I thought it was worth turning it into a blog piece that others might benefit from.   This could also be titled ‘Letter to a 30-year old me’ or a 40-year old me..\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"10 Risk Management Skills to Master ASAP"},{"content":"In some ways, all risks can be considered subjective for two reasons.\nFirstly, how we perceive risks is a very personal matter based on in-built biases, the experiences we have had and our current situation.\nAn example from a well-known risk textbook is an icy sidewalk. A child might see that as a fun thing to slide on so their perception is that there is no risk. A retiree will perceive this as a high risk as their chance of falling and becoming injured is higher and more debilitating. If a kid falls, they usually just get up and carry on with what they are doing.\nHere, the perception of the same situation is very subjective.\nSecondly, how a similar situation affect an individual or group depends on their particular circumstances.\nLet’s imagine I’m one of two people big wall climbing somewhere. The threat (falling / gravity) is constant. The impact (literally) would be the same but the risk* we face could be very different. Why? Well, I’m not a great climber so my vulnerability to a fall is pretty high. If the other climber is someone like Alex Honnold or Beth Rodden (both world class climbers), their vulnerability to a fall is significantly less. So my overall risk is very high whereas theirs will be fairly low.\n*I’m defining a risk as a combination of a threat, vulnerability to that threat and the impact of that threat. So risk = threat * vulnerability * impact. Read more here.\nThis is a less-rigid use of ‘subjective’ but the point is that the risk posed by a similar situation is still influenced heavily by personal factors.\nRead a longer piece on risk perception here\nObjectivity is therefore hard to achieve because of this subjectivity and because many of the biases and influences we experience are subconscious and linked to System 1 (instinctive, fast) thinking. However, it is because of these biases that we need objective measures to help us begin risk discussions from a relatively neutral point.\nData is a big help here (assuming we have eliminated as much bias from the data collection as possible).\nSo if we can gather enough data to give us a good understanding of what the threat looks like (say, the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes in a particular area), we can then start to assess the vulnerability and impact and therefore the risk of this kind of event more objectively.\nIn this example, anyone who has experienced an earthquake will have a different (subjective) perception of the risk from someone who hasn’t but at least they could begin their discussion from a neutral (objective) position using a data-driven threat assessment. (Trying to establish this neutral start point was a big reason I built the DCDR risk assessment tool.)\nSo to answer the original question, risks themselves aren’t objective or subjective. It’s how we approach things that makes risks subjective or objective.\nThanks for reading!\nIoriginally answered this question on Quora here.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/10/11/what-is-the-difference-between-subjective-and-objective-risk/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eIn some ways, all risks can be considered \u003cstrong\u003esubjective\u003c/strong\u003e for two reasons.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFirstly, how we perceive risks is a very personal matter based on in-built biases, the experiences we have had and our current situation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn example from a well-known risk textbook is an icy sidewalk. A child might see that as a fun thing to slide on so their \u003cem\u003eperception\u003c/em\u003e is that there is no risk. A retiree will perceive this as a high risk as their chance of falling and becoming injured is higher and more debilitating. If a kid falls, they usually just get up and carry on with what they are doing.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"What is the difference between subjective and objective risk?"},{"content":"Two major events are going to happen in US within the five years. One is a replay of the US subprime mortgage collapse which spawned the 2008 financial crisis. The other will occur when the bubble of college debt bursts. Both events – one of which may well trigger the other – will cause massive strain on US banks with potential global repercussions.\nThis isn’t a bold claim. There are lots of people, all of whom much more familiar with this kind of risk than I am, sounding similar alarm bells. For example, the day after I started writing this, the Financial Times’ editorial was on a similar topic. And there may be other significant events that occur in addition to these but making forecasts about what’s going to happen isn’t the point of this article.\nIt’s about why these events are going to be largely the same as previous events, despite there being opportunities to identify, mitigate and avoid these risks.\nAnd it’s about how you need to avoid making similar mistakes in your organization.\n“This time it’s different…” Before the next major event, lots of people will be on TV to explain why this times it’s different. CEOs, pundits and politicians will explain that the lessons from the last crisis have been learned. Regulations and controls are in place. People have been replaced. We aren’t going to make the same mistakes again.\nThe FT’s leader said as much: the risks to the banking system are not the same as 2008 – those problems have been fixed – but the contagion would come from somewhere like the shadow banking sector. So this time it’s different.\n…except that it isn’t The problem is that next time it won’t be different. The underlying fundamentals – whatever led to the previous crisis – will be broadly similar. Not only that but it’s very similar to previous events despite multiple opportunities to identify, manage or avoid the associated risks. I think that there are three reasons for this lack of action.\nLessons aren’t learned The first is that, despite any lessons identified, these lessons from previous events haven’t been learned. They haven’t been put into action. The thousands of pages of reports, studies and books stay largely unread. The actions to fix the problems always seems to fall off the agenda at meetings. Addressing the issues isn’t given any management attention.\nSometimes, this inaction is because no-one wants to relive a traumatic and damaging event. Sometimes it’s because the people involved in the event have moved on, taking their knowledge and experiences with them. Those who are left don’t have the same motivation to solve an abstract issue they weren’t involved with. Sometimes, people are just hoping the issue will go away. Maybe they just don’t want to spend any money.\nWhatever the case, no matter what lessons could have been learned, nothing has been done. Things remain the same.\nRegulations are confused with punishment The second problem is that regulations and controls are treated as punishments, not safety measures. So banks having to hold larger reserves, chemical companies facing pollution controls or social media companies being asked to police their users all cry that they are facing “crippling” regulations. One of three things then happens.\nThe companies move somewhere with a more relaxed regulatory environment, they push the authorities until the regulations are softened or they drag their feet and avoid implementation. Even if a regulation is put in place, these are relaxed after a while because nothing has happened.\n(This last case obviously ignores the fact that the absence of incidents was largely due to the regulation.)\nThe result is that the regulations or controls are watered down or not applied at all. So when a similar situation arises, the guardrails that should have been in place are absent. Things remain the same.\nThere is no real punishment But well developed, considered regulations aren’t punishments. In fact, punishments are often few and far between which is the third reason things remain the same. A lack of punishment or consequence for wrongdoing creates a moral hazard where there is no fallout for people who behave badly. There will be the occasional firing, demotion or someone who quietly retires ‘to spend more time with the family’ but often, not a lot happens. Sometimes it’s the exact opposite. People even get promoted out of trouble or a golden handshake to leave. Banks get a bailout. If this is the case, the question isn’t why you broke the rules. The question is why wouldn’t you? The absence of consequences encourages risky behavior.\nSo without the lessons learned, regulations or punishment, things won’t be different – they’ll be the same.\nWhat about your organization? But these problems don’t just apply at the national or sector level. Individual organizations can also fool themselves by saying ‘this time it’s different’ when in fact, it is exactly the same. There are three things you can do to prevent this.\n1 – Learn the lessons from previous events and implement them. Commissioning an expert study and cooperating with the authorities is meaningless unless realistic change follows. So you need to take the lessons learned and have a thorough plan to implement these in a meaningful timeframe.\n2 – Follow, don’t ignore the regulations that are in place. Firstly, because it’s the law but also, if you have a CEO on TV repeatedly saying why regulations are bad, this can encourage a toxic climate of rule-breaking throughout the company. Remember, the tone from the top counts. That’s not to say that you cannot question or challenge regulations that disrupt your business – sometimes there are bad laws – but the default setting shouldn’t be to immediately object to any rule and to fight it without any intention of ever putting it into effect.\n3 – Ensure there are consequences and apply these uniformly. Effective consequences are those applied across the whole organization, not where it’s only the small infractions by junior staff that are punished. Otherwise you can end up with this kind of a situation.\n*[The CEO] told the saddest compliance story at the conference. The company employed a cleaning woman named Joyce. “She had cancer, her husband had **died, and she was raising her three grand-babies,” [The CEO] said. One day, she found a gift card on the office floor, took it to Walmart, and spent it. “And it cost her her job,” he said. “We’re tough on trust issues. Trust is a must.” *\nYet this is the same company that had settled with the US Treasury a couple of years earlier when senior executives were facing charges of bribery and contravening the FCPA. After the settlement, there was no record of anyone being fired.\nMaybe Joyce was a victim of new, tough rules but I suspect that she simply fell foul of double standards.\nMake sure it really is different this time So ensure that you implement the lessons learned, adhere to the regulations and instigate a series of uniform consequences. That way, when you say ‘this time it’s different’, it will be. Otherwise you are running the risk of repeating the same mistakes but worst of all, you will have fooled yourself into thinking that things really are going to be ok this time.\nLove this? Hate it? Leave a comment below and let me know what you think.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/09/17/this-time-it-isnt-different/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eTwo major events are going to happen in US within the five years.  One is a replay of the US subprime mortgage collapse which spawned the 2008 financial crisis.  The other will occur when the bubble of college debt bursts. Both events – one of which may well trigger the other – will cause massive strain on US banks with potential global repercussions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis isn’t a bold claim.  There are lots of people, all of whom much more familiar with this kind of risk than I am, sounding similar alarm bells.  For example, the day after I started writing this, the Financial Times’ editorial was on a similar topic. And there may be other significant events that occur in addition to these but making forecasts about what’s going to happen isn’t the point of this article.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"This time it isn’t different"},{"content":"Happy September!\nI’m a big fan of September for several reasons: the weather is cooling down, vacation-time is over, fall race season is starting (well, it is normally) and there’s a lot of pie-ready fruit available (I love pie). However, one reason I really like this month is that September is a great month for getting things done. And if you have any plans to build or update your enterprise risk management system by the end of the year, this might be your last chance to get started.** **\n**If you don’t start your project now, you have very little chance of succeeding before the end of the year. **\nThat might seem fairly stark but I can say that with confidence because over the last 15+ years and dozens, if not hundreds of consulting engagements, I have noticed that the chances of successful, on time delivery diminishes as the end of the year approaches.\nSo you need to start now. Why September? As I said, September is a great time because you have the energy to plow through a lot of work.\n**The real reason to do this now is because September and October are the last real work months of the year. **\nIt might seem odd to write off November and December but think about it. December is a bust because:\nEveryone is scrambling to get things closed out by December 31. Budgets normally have to submitted by then. End of year reports, reviews and returns are due. November is also tricky because:\nIf you are in the southern hemisphere, you are starting to ease into summer. If you are in the Northern hemisphere you are grumpy because it is dark and cold. If you are in America, there are always some key decision-makers on vacation. I thought this last point was a joke when I moved to the US and a friend advised me to get any big decisions out of the way before Halloween. Lo and behold, as soon as my sugar rush had died down in early November, it felt like France in August: empty desks everywhere. (Sorry mes amis but you know it’s true.) Lesson learned!\nAn Eight Week Sprint Eight weeks is a good project length. It’s long enough to make real progress but short enough to keep people’s attention. It’s certainly more than enough time to put the basics of an enterprise risk management (ERM) system together. Embedding the system is what really takes the time but that happens after the initial eight weeks. Remember, great is the enemy of good. Get a functional, fit for purpose plan in place and then see how it performs rather than trying to get everything right first time. Eight weeks is more than enough time for that. Any longer and you will just keep fiddling to try to make it perfect and your stakeholders will move onto something else. However, if you can get a workable process in place, you can observe, review and update as you go.\nTwo months is a perfect length for a build / review project: long enough to achieve the result but short enough to maintain momentum, enthusiasm and energy. I firmly believe that September and October are the best times to tackle any of these big projects. February / March is another option but, to my mind, September is the best time to start anything substantial. Get started now and then you can kick back and enjoy the last few months of the year happy – dare I say a little smug? – that you are in good shape while you watch other departments scrambling to secure that last vital stakeholder approval meeting in mid-December.\nIf you’re looking for more resources to help you build your risk management system, check out the ERM resource page here.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/08/30/get-things-done-this-month/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eHappy September!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI’m a big fan of September for several reasons: the weather is cooling down, vacation-time is over, fall race season is starting (well, it is normally) and there’s a lot of pie-ready fruit available (I love pie). \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, one reason I really like this month is that September is a great month for getting things done.  \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd if you have any plans to build or update your enterprise risk management system by the end of the year, this might be your last chance to get started.** **\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Get Things Done this Month"},{"content":"We often say ‘the devil is in the detail’ meaning that it is the small things that will catch us out. But sometimes the problem begins by looking at the details in the first place.\nDon’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of details. I believe the more planning and specificity you can put into something, the better. The problem occurs when we jump into the details too quickly. Instead of starting with a strategic perspective, we dive right into the weeds.\nThis is a terrible way to do things.\nIf the point of what you are doing isn’t clear, no matter how successful you are at the tactical level, you won’t fully achieve what you set out to do. It becomes too easy to get sidetracked or diverted and end up somewhere else. Worst of all, because of tactical successes, you can mistakenly think that you are achieving your goal\nOne example I saw recently was nothing to do with business but it’s a good example nonetheless.\nI dabble in long-distance running and am always looking for ways to improve. People training for marathons (26.2 miles) and beyond often run 50+ miles per week in training. However, I struggle with this kind of mileage so I was looking for some tips. The point this coach made was that running 7-8 miles per day would allow you to hit this weekly mileage target (a tactical success) but wouldn’t prepare you for your goal of running 30+ miles in a race (a strategic failure).\nInstead, you need a different approach to your training. Keep the same weekly mileage, but structure your training in a way that allows you to meet your goal of completing a long race. The focus is on training quality, not quantity.\nHow does this relate to risk management or business? Now even though you might not be a runner, this example highlights how a tactical success (hitting your mileage target) won’t necessarily help you achieve your goal (punishing yourself in a 30-mile race or longer). Instead, we need to have a clear understanding of our goal or intent to be successful.\nWe need to start with a strategic perspective.\nThe easiest way to think about this in a risk management context is to look at the definition of risk itself: “the effect of uncertainty on objectives” (ISO 73). By this definition, risk itself is strategic and we have to understand the objective(s) to be successful.\nUnderstand the intent Again, if we jump right into the details without knowing or considering the objective, we cannot hope to support or achieve our intent.\nAs an example, if a team at Tesla had simply been told ‘build a better battery’ their solution could have been very different than if they had been told that they needed to ‘build a better battery that was capable of powering a high-performance electric vehicle’. Without understanding this intent, the battery they developed might have been effective but too bulky, heavy or unable to sustain the loads that an electric sports car needs.\nEven the most senior people in an organization can very quickly get into the tactical weeds if they ignore the big picture. However, if everyone in an organization understands the overall mission or intent, they should be able to focus on achieving that aim. In highly complex situations, such as spaceflight, even comparatively small matters can have significant implications so a strategic perspective helps ensure that nothing vital is relegated to second place.\nFreedom of action The second reason for understanding the overall intent is that this provides a great deal of freedom of action. Even though complete freedom of action isn’t normally possible and there will still need to be guidelines and some ground rules, being objectives-led allows people to adapt to change or to become more efficient.\nAs long as they keep their focus on the objective, they are free to get there in the most efficient and effective way possible.\nFocus and motivate your team The final reason for a strategic perspective is that it is motivating: everyone is part of something bigger.\nThe story of the stonemasons – ‘I’m stacking bricks’ versus ‘I’m building a cathedral’ – is sometimes used to illustrate this but just think about the person at reception or whoever answers the phone for an organization. If they are ‘just’ the receptionist – undervalued, low-paid or even a temp worker – they won’t feel like they are part of a bigger endeavor and aren’t going to be motivated to do much beyond the basics of sitting at their desk and occasionally picking up the phone.\nHowever, this is literally the face or voice of the organization and if they don’t feel like they are part of something bigger, everyone’s first contact with the organization will be negative or at best lukewarm. Visitors and callers will have a very different experience if they are talking with someone who feels invested in the organization and sees how they are part of its success.\nSo that’s the why, but how do we become more strategic and objectives-led?\nDeveloping a strategic perspective Just do it!\nThis is one of the times where Nike’s slogan applies. To have more of a strategic perspective, you just need to have a strategic perspective….\nHowever, although true, this isn’t very actionable so let’s look at a few practical steps.\nDefine and communicate the mission First, you need a clear statement of the mission or goal, one that is communicated throughout the organization. Once you have identified your overall goal, break it into strategic objectives to help get you there. In turn, break these down into team or departmental objectives and tasks. This ensures that everyone is clear as to what they are trying to do and why, not just simply being told what to do. Sometimes referred to as being effects-led, this moves the focus to the outcome, not the action.\nBy the way, this isn’t necessarily just for high-level activities. Imagine simply telling someone to ‘cook a potato’. You could end up with wildly different results ranging from salad to french fries to gnocchi if you didn’t specify the outcome you wanted.\nPlan down…explain up Second, start at the top and work down. Begin at the strategic level – understand the big picture or overall context – before you get into the details. Remember, if you ask tactical questions, you get tactical answers. So begin with the mission or overall objective and work down. This lets you specify the effect you are trying to achieve before you identify the tasks needed to make that happen.\nThis ends up looking something like this:\nPlan down: Objective → Effect → Task\nThird, reverse this process and explain tasks in context, relating these back to the effect you want to achieve.\nAs an example, this is the difference between saying ‘keep this place clean’ and ‘maintain a sterile space [the task] to prevent the space crew from getting sick [the effect] and jeopardizing the space launch [the overall mission].’\nBoth instructions will result in a clean room but the latter, contextual description, will explains what the cleaning is meant to achieve and allows those involved to focus on what’s important (killing germs) instead of secondary things (stacking magazines).\nThis results in the reverse of the previous format.\nExplain up: Task → Effect → Objective\nAgain, this doesn’t just apply to high-level activities. Think about how unfocused meetings without an objective become.\nMaintain your perspective Fourth and finally, keep looking up. The farther into a project you get, the easier it is to lose sight of the overall objective but without that target, you can easily lose focus, get off track or become demoralized. Moreover, sometimes the objective or a critical factor will change so continually reminding yourself of the objective will help keep you on target. That way you can complete your tasks and still achieve the aim.\nBy the way, ‘look up’ also applies literally. There are times where people are so intent on what they are doing, that they lose sight of what is happening all around them. By literally looking up, you can break away from the tactical details of what you are doing and re-orientate yourself to the overall goal.\nConclusion: It’s still all about the details but… Despite all of this, don’t forget, the details are still there.\nEven though you start with a strategic perspective, you will still have to get into the weeds at some stage. However if you take a top-down approach and keep the objective in mind, you are less likely to lose focus, drift off target and waste your efforts.\nSo even though the devil might still be in the details, don’t let the devil be the details.\nI hope you enjoyed this but let me know what you think. Add your thoughts and comments below.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/08/19/develop-a-strategic-perspective/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eWe often say ‘the devil is in the detail’ meaning that it is the small things that will catch us out.  But sometimes the problem begins by looking at the details in the first place.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDon’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of details.  I believe the more planning and specificity you can put into something, the better. The problem occurs when we jump into the details too quickly. Instead of starting with a strategic perspective, we dive right into the weeds.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"The devil is the detail"},{"content":" “The first rule of snakes [problems] is, if you see a snake, you kill it….Just take care of it” Jim Barksdale, former CEO Netscape\nIt’s rare for an event to be truly unexpected.\nWe know that our personal habits affect our health. We know that incorrect use of tools and machinery can cause injury. We know that small-scale corner-cutting leads to more serious infringements. We know that running complex systems – like drilling rigs or nuclear power stations – beyond established safe parameters can be catastrophic.\nYet, time after time when something goes wrong, we hear a variation of ‘we had no idea that this could happen’. This is despite the mountains of evidence from previous events clearly showing how a specific set of actions led to the incident or issue.\nIn the majority of the incidents, issues or crises I have been involved in or studied, the warning signs were all there and had been identified before the event.\nFor the situations where I played a part, I wish I could claim to have been the one who always called these out. I wasn’t. But I can say with certainty that the signs were almost always there.\nAs risk managers, especially those with a governance position, a big part of our role is to be the voice that speaks out. We should be evidence-based and objective so if we see something that looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we should call it a duck. We should also be the ones making sure that everyone else is calling it a duck unless there is a better explanation.\nHowever, what often happens is that we see a duck but instead of dealing with it we convene a committee to study the duck (delay), spend a lot of time arguing that it isn’t a duck (denial) and eventually decide that even if it is a duck, we don’t need to do anything (dismiss).\nYou will have seen these three tactics – delay, deny, dismiss – used countless times I’m sure. But now ask yourself: how often did the problem disappear?\nI’m going to guess, rarely.\nIn fact, I’m willing to bet that instead of disappearing, the problem got worse over time. So instead of dealing with the problem when it is probably solvable, because of a combination of delay, denial and dismissal, things end up being much worse. But why?\nSometimes the rewards are too attractive.\nThat’s why Wells Fargo overlooked unauthorized accounts being opened. And why markets ignored the fragility of trading mortgage-backed securities prior to the 2008 US financial meltdown. And why Uber’s board allowed a toxic culture to continue. The rewards were simply too big.\nAt other times, it’s because the organization knows that this is a nasty problem but they don’t want to deal with it. Unfortunately, as Colin Powell said, “Bad news isn’t wine – it doesn’t improve with age”. Turning a blind eye today simply allows the problem to grow tomorrow. When you finally have to confront the problem, it is much worse. Facebook is discovering this now as concerns over users’ privacy, election interference and transparency are coming to a head with US Congressional investigations and a massive drop in share price.\nIn many of these cases, you will hear people say ‘we had no idea’ or ‘this was a black swan event’*, but this simply isn’t true. The warning signs were all there. They just didn’t do anything about them.\nBut please don’t get me wrong. I understand that there are sometimes compelling reasons to do nothing and dealing with problems is always hard and often unpleasant. I get that. But my point is that once you have identified the problem, you have to tackle it because it isn’t going anywhere.\nSo no matter how sophisticated or detailed the tools we have are, sometimes you need to step back and look at the big picture. Use your common sense and your intuition and trust the most straightforward explanation.\nSo if it looks like a duck, or a snake, call it what it is and deal with it. Sometimes, there isn’t a more complicated explanation and a problem today won’t be any easier to deal with tomorrow.\nThe term comes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book, ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable’. Taleb uses the example of a survey that only finds white swans to explain that although this confirms that white swans are most common, it doesn’t disprove the existence of black swans. His point is that predictive models based on previous observations of what is ‘normal’ can be highly misleading. However, there are very few true black swan events. Most of the time the warning signs are there but were ignored.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/07/29/if-it-looks-like-a-duck-or-a-snake/","summary":"\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“The first rule of snakes [problems] is, if you see a snake, you kill it….Just take care of it”\n\u003ca href=\"https://hbr.org/2014/06/dont-play-with-dead-snakes-and-other-management-advice\"\u003eJim Barksdale, former CEO Netscape\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt’s rare for an event to be truly unexpected.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe know that our personal habits affect our health. We know that incorrect use of tools and machinery can cause injury. We know that small-scale corner-cutting leads to more serious infringements. We know that running complex systems – like drilling rigs or nuclear power stations – beyond established safe parameters can be catastrophic.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"If it looks like a duck (or a snake)…."},{"content":"This post originally appeared on Quora in response to the question ‘What is a risk mitigation plan?’ Link\nWhat is a risk mitigation plan The risk mitigation plan is a series of specific actions or steps you will take in response to a risk once you have completed your risk assessment. However, before you start to develop the mitigation plan in detail, you need to determine a general course of action based on one of five main options: avoid, tolerate, treat, transfer and terminate (A4T). Which of these is most applicable will depend on your risk tolerance (short term), risk appetite (longer term) and what you can reasonably achieve with the resources available (ALARP).\nOnce you have this general sense of the strategy, you can start planning the detailed approach and develop the risk mitigation plan.\nWhen you are designing a set of measures to address the risk, you should try to mirror the methodology you used in the assessment. So if you used a risk = threat * impact * vulnerability calculation, you should clearly link each element of the mitigation plan to an element of the risk itself. This helps you evaluate if the mitigation will actually reduce the risk, and by how much. This also helps allocate responsibility for the various elements of the mitigation plan.\nSummarizing the plan As an example, this is a simple table of potential options XYZ Company might consider to address the threat of protests and unrest in the fictional country of Janwick.\nOne you have settled on a set of potential mitigation measures, peer review these to ensure that the steps are credible and to avoid unintentional consequences from the mitigation itself. Also ensure that there are clear, measurable steps in the mitigation plan to ensure that you can track progress and measure the effectiveness of the mitigation plan to check that it is achieving the outcome you want.\nLearn more about addressing and mitigating your risks You can read a longer article on how you can address and mitigate your risks here.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/07/13/what-is-a-risk-mitigation-plan/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis post originally appeared on Quora in response to the question ‘What is a risk mitigation plan?’ \u003ca href=\"https://www.quora.com/What-is-a-risk-mitigation-plan\"\u003eLink\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"what-is-a-risk-mitigation-plan\"\u003eWhat is a risk mitigation plan\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe risk mitigation plan is a series of specific actions or steps you will take in response to a risk once you have \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2017/03/18/risk-assessment-process-how-to-conduct-a-risk-assessment/\"\u003ecompleted your risk assessment\u003c/a\u003e.  However, before you start to develop the mitigation plan in detail, you need to determine a general course of action based on one of five main options: \u003cstrong\u003eavoid, tolerate, treat, transfer \u003cstrong\u003eand\u003c/strong\u003e terminate (A4T)\u003c/strong\u003e. Which of these is most applicable will depend on your risk tolerance (short term), risk appetite (longer term) and what you can reasonably achieve with the resources available (ALARP).\u003c/p\u003e","title":"What is a risk mitigation plan?"},{"content":"This post first appeared on Quora in response to the question ‘How do you convince people to take a risk in a company?’ Link.\nHow do you convince people to take a risk in a company? Firstly, I don’t think we should ever push people to take risks that 1) they are uncomfortable with and 2) that don’t serve the company’s objectives.\nHowever, I also know that sometimes people might overestimate and subsequently avoid a risk that might actually benefit them and the company. That is something we can help with.\nI think that you start by breaking things down into four parts:\nUnderstand the risk Understand the person’s perception of the risk Understand how the risk relates to the company’s objectives Understand the company’s risk appetite and tolerance If we look at these in more detail, the first stage will be to assess the risk. Understand its components so the magnitude of the threat is clear, understand the company’s vulnerability (or exposure) to the threat and what impact it might have. If you use an objective, fact-based, quantitative approach, this makes it easier to develop a description of the risk that people can agree on. This description of the risk gives you a generally agreed-upon starting point for the subsequent parts of the discussion.\nSecondly, you need to understand the concerns of the people involved. We all carry a lot of psychological baggage with us when it comes to risk. Our perception of risk will be informed by our experiences, implicit biases and our perspective.\nFor example, someone who has seen a company go under by being too reckless might be more risk averse compared to someone who felt that their previous company failed because it grew too slowly.\nImportantly, a lot of the factors that affect our risk perception are subconscious so people might not know why they feel a particular way about the risk.\nThird, how does the risk relate to the company’s objectives? If the risk assessment was carried out thoroughly, you should be able to assess the potential effect of the risk on the company’s objectives. Sometimes a risk can seem significant because the threat is triggering a sub-conscious response but on further analysis, the overall risk might have little bearing on the company’s objectives.\nFinally, understand how much risk the company is will to seek out and accept on a day-to-day basis (its risk appetite) and how much risk can it accept on a short-term basis (its risk tolerance).\nArmed with all this information, you can then have an informed conversation with the people involved. Discuss the risk, acknowledge people’s perceptions but then relate it to the company’s objectives and the risk appetite / risk tolerance of the group.\nThis lays the foundation for a much more data-led, objective discussion about the risk and a merit-based decision on whether or not to take it instead of a subjective reaction.\nAs a quick example, I once had a client who manufactured private jets. They sold a large number of aircraft in Latin America and frequently travelled to Colombia back in the late 1990s and early 2000s when there were some significant security concerns. When I started to work with them, they were keen to open up Africa as a market but were very hesitant to go to Nigeria, citing the risk of kidnap and unrest. Using the approach described above, we were able to establish that the risk in Nigeria was very similar to Colombia; that this level of risk did not exceed their risk appetite; and that Nigeria was key to the company’s strategic sales objectives. The issue was that because they were less familiar with the situation in Nigeria, they perceived the risk to be much higher than a similar situation in Colombia. Eventually, we built what we called the ‘Bogota-model’: a set of precautions they would apply in any higher-risk situations to mitigate the risks. These were the same precautions they used in Colombia, routines that they were familiar with and trusted. As they could now objectively compare Lagos with Bogota, and had confidence in the precautions in place, they were now willing to operate in a location that had been previously deemed too high risk. Importantly, there was no need to persuade or sell this outcome. Once we had established an objective understanding of the situation, the client needed no convincing that this was a risk worth taking to further their objectives.\nAs this example illustrates, I don’t think that you need to persuade someone to take a risk. Rather, if you put a risk into context, show how it can further the company’s objectives and it still falls within the company’s risk appetite and tolerance levels, then the argument makes itself.\nIf you find that you are trying to push risk-taking that doesn’t meet one of these criteria, then you might be underplaying the risk yourself or be pushing people to take an unnecessary risk.\nSo, if you can have an open, objective conversation that acknowledges the risk, risk perception, risk tolerance and appetite, while relating everything to the company’s objectives, you will be able to persuade people to take prudent risks that benefit the company.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/07/06/convincing-people-to-take-risks/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis post first appeared on Quora in response to the question ‘How do you convince people to take a risk in a company?’ \u003ca href=\"https://www.quora.com/How-do-you-convince-people-to-take-a-risk-in-a-company\"\u003eLink\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch1 id=\"how-do-you-convince-people-to-take-a-risk-in-a-company\"\u003eHow do you convince people to take a risk in a company?\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFirstly, I don’t think we should ever push people to take risks that 1) they are uncomfortable with and 2) that don’t serve the company’s objectives.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, I also know that sometimes people might overestimate and subsequently avoid a risk that might actually benefit them and the company. That is something we can help with.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Convincing people to take risks"},{"content":"This post originally appeared on Quora in answer to the question “How does risk management fit in security risk management profession?” Link\nHow does risk management fit in security risk management profession? Ideally, a security manager will use a risk management foundation for their security management system. This will help integrate security risks into the organization’s understanding of its overall risk environment. This focus also ensures that the security program is focussed on protecting the organization’s objectives which aligns with the ISO definition of risk:\nRisk – the effect of uncertainty on objectives (ISO)\nThis focus on objectives is important as it moves security away from asset protection – which is where attention was directed traditionally – to ensuring that security efforts are properly aligned with the organization’s goals.\nThe security manager should be able to use standard risk management tools, techniques and processes when assessing their security risk. Designing and implementing the appropriate mitigation measures will be threat and organization-specific – as it will be with every function in an organization – but the process followed should still mirror a standard risk management program.\nAligning security management with enterprise risk management (ERM) is a strategic objective of ASIS International, the professional organization for security managers. Developing an enterprise security risk management (ESRM) framework and mindset is a key focus of activity in 2018 which will enhance the support organizations’ get from their security management teams. There is some trepidation around this and implementing an ESRM program will take some work but I think that a simple approach based on the core principles of ERM is very achievable and will drive significant benefits with minimum disruption. I wrote about implementing an ESRM program here for anyone interested in this topic. I started out as a security manager and developed a better understanding of, and appreciation for, risk management over the years. Looking back, as my understanding of ‘pure’ risk management improved, so did my abilities as a security manager. So while not every risk manager is a security manager, every security manager should be a risk manager.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/06/30/risk-management-and-the-security-manager-a-quick-note/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis post originally appeared on Quora in answer to the question “How does risk management fit in security risk management profession?” \u003ca href=\"https://www.quora.com/How-does-risk-management-fit-in-security-risk-management-profession/answer/Andrew-Sheves-2\"\u003eLink\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"how-does-risk-management-fit-in-security-risk-management-profession\"\u003eHow does risk management fit in security risk management profession?\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIdeally, a security manager will use a risk management foundation for their security management system.  This will help integrate security risks into the organization’s understanding of its overall risk environment.  This focus also ensures that the security program is focussed on protecting the organization’s objectives which aligns with the ISO definition of risk:\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk management and the security manager – a quick note"},{"content":"Summer’s here* which means it’s time for a change of pace and a chance to try something different for a couple of months. So instead of the normal longer-form pieces or interviews, I am going to stick to nice, short pieces for the next month or two. Perfect, bite-sized risk nibbles to keep your risk synapses firing during these long, hot days.\nTo start with, these will be re-posts of answers to questions posed on Quora which I have been trying to do more regularly. I’m really enjoying Quora for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t need to think about a subject (which I often find is the hardest part of writing). It’s right there, waiting for me. Secondly, it’s great practice in condensing and summarizing something that might otherwise become a 1,500-2,000 word essay.\nSo I hope you enjoy these as much as I enjoyed writing them and, if you like the Q\u0026amp;A style, let me know. I’m not going anywhere – I’m just buying some time to get ready for a busy fall – so comment or send an email to let me know what you think.\nThanks\n~Andrew\nUnless you are reading this from the the southern hemisphere (hi bro!). ","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/06/29/summer-shorts/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eSummer’s here* which means it’s time for a change of pace and a chance to try something different for a couple of months.  So instead of the normal longer-form pieces or interviews, I am going to stick to nice, short pieces for the next month or two.  Perfect, bite-sized risk nibbles to keep your risk synapses firing during these long, hot days.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo start with, these will be re-posts of answers to questions posed on Quora which I have been trying to do more regularly.  I’m really enjoying Quora for two reasons.  Firstly, I don’t need to think about a subject (which I often find is the hardest part of writing). It’s right there, waiting for me.  Secondly, it’s great practice in condensing and summarizing something that might otherwise become a 1,500-2,000 word essay.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Summer shorts"},{"content":"(This post was updated on Nov 7, 2018 to reflect the discontinuation of the free SOLO plan.)\nLaunch day! For about 15 months now, I have been working on a project to build a better piece of risk management software. This is something I have been thinking about since 2002 and I think now, more than ever, we need – and deserve – a better piece of software for risk management. Why?\n**Because most of the existing tools are awful. **\nExpensive. Difficult to use. Glorified spreadsheets. Inaccessible. Sometimes all of these.\n‘Too complex for [non-experts].’\n‘The output is too complicated and not user friendly.’ * ‘Too open to influence by managers.’ ‘[Use of the tool] has to be outsourced raising significant costs.’* ‘Not dynamic.’* ‘Slow or delayed outcomes or results.’* ‘Costs thousands of dollars and still doesn’t do what we need it to.’ Quotes from risk managers interviewed in 2017 Having built DCDR, I appreciate how hard it is to build fast, clean, elegant software. I use tools like Dropbox, Evernote and Remember the Milk every day because they work and are ridiculously simple. That’s really hard to do yet these tools all manage to be simple, fast and effective and cost less than $20 per month.\nBut some of the risk management tools on the market cost upwards of $5,000 per month and are still terrible. Worst of all, if you use these tools, you are often locked into working with a particular firm. They hold your data and the only way to get it is to keep using their system. Or the mitigation measures all seem to require their services. So the software becomes another technique to upsell products.\n“Somebody comes in with a problem and you go, I know this problem, I can name this tune in three notes. Well, no. Actually, that’s not the business model. You wanna say, oh, boy, that’s a complex symphony. That’s gonna be 3,000 notes.” Former CEO Home Depot Frank Blake on why he left the legal profession[1]\nIn the end, I decided to built my own tool because I truly believe that risk management should be accessible and we need better tools. And honestly, I love solving problems but I hate the upsell.\nSo after years procrastinating, 15 months of developing and weeks of testing, it’s time to launch.\nWhoosh! Photo SpaceX on Unsplash\nDCDR launched yesterday. DCDR launched on Jun 19, 2018.\nDCDR is a risk-driven, decision-making application that sorts and grades your risks to allow you to make informed decisions quickly and affordably. The tool is web-based and accessible on desktop or mobile platforms via a web browser to ensure accessibility, speed and simplicity. DCDR modules include risk assessments and incident reporting, all captured in a shared dashboard. You can see a demo here.\nIt’s the tool I have been looking for since 2002.\nThe basic tool is free and will remain free as long as that is feasible (i.e. until we are enslaved by our robot overlords, when Vecna returns [2] or Tarjuman collapses.)\n[maxbutton id=”1″ ]\nWhen you sign up, you will get access to the PRO version of the app for 14 days for free. Even if you don’t want to stay on a PRO plan, you can continue to use the free SOLO version (with all your data) after the trial so there’s nothing to lose.\n(Nov 2018 – There’s still a free trial of up to 31 days with DCDR but the SOLO free plan has been discontinued for now. A free version of DCDR will be spun off in the future but for now, the free plan has been replaced with a low-cost version of the SOLO plan.)\nMore advanced versions provide additional functionality for PRO users (consultants or teams of one) and teams. The objective is still to keep this accessible so pricing will be kept as low as possiblewhile still allowing me to offer a robust, secure application.\nIt’s been a lot of work to launch DCDR (and I still have a lot to do) but I really believe that this offers a new, fresh approach to risk management and puts powerful risk assessment tools into everyone’s hands.\nThere’s no upsell, no associated services and you always have access to, and control of, your data.\nTry it and let me know what you think\n[maxbutton id=”1″ ]\nFootnotes\n[1] – This Interview with Frank Blake is great for many reasons but something that really caught my attention was when he talks about managing a crisis – in this case, a massive data breach. The transcript and audio are here. https://tim.blog/2018/03/22/the-tim-ferriss-show-transcripts-frank-blake/\n[2] – If this makes sense, kudos and you gain 250 xp\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/06/20/dcdr-is-live-and-free/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e(This post was updated on Nov 7, 2018 to reflect the discontinuation of the free SOLO plan.)\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"launch-day\"\u003eLaunch day!\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor about 15 months now, I have been working on a project to build a better piece of risk management software.  This is something I have been thinking about since 2002 and I think now, more than ever, we need – and deserve – a better piece of software for risk management.  Why?\u003c/p\u003e","title":"DCDR is live"},{"content":"OK, I confess that this took me a little longer than I had hoped but I finally updated the risk management maturity tool to reflect the 2018 ISO 31000 risk management standard.\nThe new tool is available here and you can read my review of the standard here.\nSo if you were wondering how mature your risk management system was, wonder no longer!\nThe assessment only takes a few minutes and you get a nifty report like this emailed to you right away.\nGive it a try here.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/06/11/risk-management-maturity-tool-update/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eOK, I confess that this took me a little longer than I had hoped but I finally updated the risk management maturity tool to reflect the 2018 ISO 31000 risk management standard.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe new tool is available \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/tools/apps-erm/\"\u003ehere\u003c/a\u003e and you can \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2018/06/05/iso-31000-a-review-of-the-2018-standard/\"\u003eread my review of the standard here\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg alt=\"Risk maturity assessment report image\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"/img/304e0ae8_risk-maturity-assessment-report-image-3301825754-1528283866422.png\"\u003eSo if you were wondering how mature your risk management system was, wonder no longer!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe assessment only takes a few minutes and you get a nifty report like this emailed to you right away.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk Management Maturity Tool Update"},{"content":" Yawn! Aside from GDPR-inspired emails with news of updated terms and conditions , this will be the most boring thing you will read all week….\n*However, it might be one of the more important if you are a risk manager because one of the core risk management references has just been updated and there are a few changes to be aware of. *\nI had to review these documents to ensure that my material was up to date so I thought I should keep some notes as I want to save you from having to go through the same ‘compare and contrast’ exercise. Plus, I love standards. : )\nSo here are my notes. But seriously, this is really dull so buckle up.\nSummary of the changes ISO 31000:2018 was published in early 2018 and replaced the 2009 version of the standard. (From now on when I refer to ISO 31000 I am referring to the 2018 version unless specified otherwise.) The introduction to the 2018 version notes the main areas of change:\nThe main changes…are as follows:\nreview of the principles of risk management, which are the key criteria for its success; highlighting of the leadership by top management and the integration of risk management, starting with the governance of the organization; greater emphasis on the iterative nature of risk management, noting that new experiences, knowledge and analysis can lead to a revision of process elements, actions and controls at each stage of the process; streamlining of the content with greater focus on sustaining an open systems model to fit multiple needs and contexts. ISO 31000:2018 Introduction\nThe TL;DR version is that the 2018 version of ISO 3001 is very similar to the 2009 version so any system built using the older version of the standard will broadly match the 2018 version.\nNote that I am not an ISO auditor, nor have I seem your risk management system, so this is a broad generalization but if you conformed with ISO 31000:2009, then your system should broadly conform with the 2018 version. Where there is a legal or contractual requirement to conform with the most up to date standard, you will have some work to do to align with the 2018 version.\nOutlined below is a more detailed comparison of the two versions of the standard and notes on the changes that might be necessary.\nISO 31000:2018 in detail Who is the standard for? “This document is for use by people who create and protect value in organizations by managing risks, making decisions, setting and achieving objectives and improving performance.” ISO 3001:2018 Introduction\nNote that the introduction does not specify a specific industry, sector or geography. ISO 31000 is the standard reference for all risk managers. So even if you are going to work in something specialized, like project risk or develop a enterprise security risk management (ESRM) program, I believe that you should start with ISO 31000.\nHaving this common reference helps avoid the situation where we have different interpretations of risk and slightly different processes as departments or functions tailor things to their own needs. This customization moves us away from the spirt of ERM and can result in multiple, different risk management systems running in parallel. (I’m not saying that you don’t need to adapt things to fit your needs but avoid making significant changes which move you away from the core content of a standard. Read more about adapting and implementing an ERM system here.)\nSo unless there is a regulatory requirement to do something different, treat ISO 31000 as the core reference.\nWhat’s in it? ISO 31000 is broken into 5 main parts:\nIntroduction and document references including terminology and definitions Risk management principles (Section 4) The risk management framework (Section 5) Risk management processes (Section 6) Bibliography The remainder of this article will focus on Sections 4, 5 and 6 and compare these to the 2009 version of the standard.\nRisk management principles (Section 4) ISO 31000:2018 identifies eight principles for effective risk management, all of which fall under the overall purpose that risk management:\n“creates and protects value. It improves performance, encourages innovation and supports the achievement of objectives.”\nThis is very close to the first principle in the 2009 version that “Risk management creates and protects value”.\nThe other eight principles are shown below with the associated principle from the 2009 version shown in brackets.\nISO 31000 risk management principles\nIntegrated (P2) Structured and comprehensive (P5) Customized (P7) Inclusive (P9) Dynamic (P10) Best available information (P6) Human and cultural factors (P8) Continuous improvement (P11) Note that two of the 2009 principles have been dropped: Decision-making (P3) and Uncertainty (P4) . However, both are referenced in other parts of the 2018 standard: Uncertainty remains part of the definition of risk and decision-making is addressed in the process section (6.1).\nTherefore, if your risk management system was based on the 2009 principles, you will overlap with the requirements of the 2018 standard comfortably.\nThe risk management framework (Section 5) N.B. I confess that this section left me a little confused because it feels as though it mixes principles and process. So while I think I understand the intent, how I should apply this section was a little unclear.\nThe Framework section begins as follows\n“The purpose of the risk management framework is to assist the organization in integrating risk management into significant activities and functions.”\nInitially, the section notes the importance of Leadership and Commitment for success of the risk management system and it is good to see this given such prominence. Likewise, the second elements tackled here is the importance of effectively integrating risk management into the whole organization and again it is good to see this given prominence.\n*Both are important points but integration is a repetition of Principle 2 and the statement on Leadership and Commitment also reads like a principle. *\nHowever, the next two other elements in the framework – design and implementation – are written in the form of processes, explaining how to design the system, implement the system, and so on. The final two elements – evaluation and improvement – also read like processes, providing guidance on how to develop the risk management framework and how to design a risk management system.\nThis misunderstanding may be me not fully appreciating the application of this section so I may have gotten lost in the woods a little here.\nHowever, if the mix of what feel like principles alongside processes is also foxing you, I recommend that you treat Leadership and Commitment and Integration as additional principles and use the process-style elements to develop your framework.\nIf anyone can shine some light on this section, please leave a comment\nRisk management processes (Section 6) The final section of the standard contains processes and guidance for the core elements of the risk management system:\nCommunications and consultation Processes for developing the scope, content and defining risk criteria A process for risk assessments Guidelines for risk treatment A process for monitoring and review Recording and reporting guidelines. These processes are broadly the same as the processes detailed in the 2009 version of the standard although Recording and Reporting has been elevated slightly and is now included in the overall process diagram. Again, if you are using processes based on ISO 31000:2009, then these will be very closely aligned with the 2018 version.\nSummary ISO 31000 was nine years old and due for a review but I think that the 2008 version was still pretty robust so I’m pleased that the revised version didn’t make too many major changes. Other than my confusion as to what to do with the framework section, the document is pretty clear and straightforward. Moreover, it has a lot of clear processes that you can use as the basis for your risk management system so ISO 31000 is a highly functional standard and definitelyfalls into the ‘love’ column.\nSo if you have a system based on the 2008 version, then you should have no problem conforming to the 2018 version. Importantly, a lot of the changes will be at the top-level policy / procedure level leaving individual process largely untouched which will significantly limit the disruption caused by any changes.\nStill here? Congratulations! You made it : )\nA short note on the material on the Tarjuman website As I noted at the beginning, the initial impetus behind this article was selfish: what impact does the new standard have on the material in my site? In short, not a huge amount as a lot of the material here is quite tactical, process-driven but there are three big changes and I am working on.\nThe biggest change is that the ERM maturity model is based on the 2009 principles and these need to be updated completely to match ISO 31000:2018. I still need to decide what to do with decision-making, uncertainty and leadership and commitment but as soon as I get that worked out, I will update the model. If you have used the ERM maturity tool to assess your risk management system, I still think it is 75%+ relevant. Most importantly, if your system was weak when compared to the 2009 version of the standard, it will still be weak compared to the 2018 version. So don’t wait – get your system in order ASAP.\nReferences to ISO 31000:2009 remain in the presentations and videos in the Risk Management Basics Course and need to be updated. Frankly, I am dreading this but the course needs freshening up more generally so I plan to roll out an updated course in Fall 2018. Again, the vast majority of this material remains extant but I want to make sure things are 100% accurate. ","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/06/05/iso-31000-a-review-of-the-2018-standard/","summary":"\u003ch2\u003e\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"yawn\"\u003eYawn!\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAside from GDPR-inspired emails with news of updated terms and conditions , this will be the most boring thing you will read all week….\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e*However, it might be one of the more important if you are a risk manager because one of the core risk management references has just been updated and there are a few changes to be aware of.  *\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI had to review these documents to ensure that my material was up to date so I thought I should keep some notes as I want to save you from having to go through the same ‘compare and contrast’ exercise. \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2018/01/15/i-love-and-hate-standards-you-should-too/\"\u003ePlus, I love standards.\u003c/a\u003e  : )\u003c/p\u003e","title":"ISO 31000 – a review of the 2018 standard"},{"content":"Risks don’t just arise from operational incidents. Often the conduct of the organization and its senior leaders result in a type of risk that is very different but just as threatening as a large, physical event.\nIn this conversation with Nick Smart we explore the intersection of risk, ethics and governance. Nick is an independent strategic risk advisor and was the chief ethics and compliance officer (CECO) for a global energy services company, before which he designed and built the security risk management function for the same company in his capacity as chief security officer (CSO).\n[Video: https://www.youtube.com/embed/bPdFEKL3hgc?version=3\u0026amp;rel=1\u0026amp;showsearch=0\u0026amp;showinfo=1\u0026amp;iv_load_policy=1\u0026amp;fs=1\u0026amp;hl=en\u0026amp;autohide=2\u0026amp;wmode=transparent]\nRead more about risk, ethics and governance here.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/05/24/meet-the-expert-a-conversation-with-nick-smart/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eRisks don’t just arise from operational incidents.  Often the conduct of the organization and its senior leaders result in a type of risk that is very different but just as threatening as a large, physical event.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn this conversation with Nick Smart we explore the intersection of \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2017/08/23/risk-governance/\"\u003erisk, ethics and governance\u003c/a\u003e.  Nick is an independent strategic risk advisor and was the chief ethics and compliance officer (CECO) for a global energy services company, before which he designed and built the security risk management function for the same company in his capacity as chief security officer (CSO).\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Meet the expert – a conversation with Nick Smart"},{"content":"I have been thinking about effective crisis management a lot recently and am working on a more in-depth piece on managing a crisis which I hope to publish soon. However, crises don’t wait until we are properly prepared before they strike so I put together this quick set of suggestions as a stop-gap.\nNormally, I wouldn’t make a top-10 list but sometimes it’s the easiest way to share ideas. So here goes and I hope you find these suggestions useful.\n10 tips for effective crisis management 1. Go back in time A successful crisis response begins days, weeks, months, even years before the first bad headline. Thinking that you can start preparing when the phones begin to ring is naive and short sighted. Individual and team skills need to be honed, institutional muscle memory developed and plans and processes built and tested well before something happens if you want to be successful. So get ready now because the crisis will hit whether you are ready or not.\n2. Get to the bottom fast Even in a crisis, you need to ask ‘how bad could this be?’ This is the worst case scenario so avoid trying to minimize things or look on the bright side and remember that a slow ‘drip, drip’ of bad news is very hard to respond to. Work out how bad things are and confront the the whole situation, unpleasant as it is, as quickly as possible. Someone is going to tell your story and it’s better that you are that someone.\nThe one thing I learned about crisis … if you’re in a crisis, you have to find the bottom and find it fast. … You’ve got to describe it, and you’ve got to be willing to describe it probably in some amount of detail that gives the public confidence that you know where the bottom is and third, you have to describe in good specificity how you’re going to dig yourself out of it. Former US Homeland Security Advisor Fran Townsend\n3. Throw everything at the problem Don’t take an incremental, sequential approach. So instead of starting with Plan A, followed by a bigger Plan B if that fails, then pulling out all the stops for plan C, you need to throw all the people, resources and money you have at the problem right away. Run plans A, B and C (and D, E, F….) simultaneously so if one fails, the other is already in progress. A decisive, rapid response with overwhelming resources can defuse a crisis but a slow, piecemeal approach will only draw things out and make it worse.\n4. Expect change One of the most important things I was taught in the military was to routinely ask ‘Has the situation changed since we made this plan?’ This was a reminder to confirm that assumptions were still valid, to check nothing had changed in the area of operations and to ensure that other parts of the plan were progressing as anticipated. If the answer was yes and something had changed then it was time to rethink things, adapt to the new situation and press on. Crises are constantly in flux so make sure that you are always asking ‘what’s changed?’ and that you are responding to the current situation, not what things looked like hours or days previously.\nClick on the image to get a copy of these reminders\n5. Execute, execute, execute Allocate 20% of your time to planning and dedicate everything else to making that plan work. Repeat.\n6. Don’t focus on the obvious If the root problem and solution were obvious, you probably wouldn’t be in a crisis. Obvious problems with obviously solutions should have been tackled well before these became a crisis. So maybe the issue isn’t the fraud, it’s the cover up. The oil spill is bad but the flippant, insensitive comments from your CEO are thwarting the clean up and causing additional, long-term damage to your organization.\n7. Acknowledge your limits You will have limits both individually and as a team. Acknowledge these and remember that seniority doesn’t always equal experience which doesn’t always equal competence. It might be admirable for the Captain to go down with their ship but it’s inexcusable for the Captain to steer the ship into danger when a more competent subordinate could have taken them to safety. Which leads to…\n8. Check your ego (and your gut) Your ego and gut instincts may very well be what got you here in the first place so a crisis isn’t the time to expect to solve things through sheer force of will and instinct. Humble pie isn’t very appetizing but it tastes better than failure.\n9. Maintain discipline Crises are not the time for sloppiness and individuals and teams need to stay disciplined. Follow the plan, use the procedures and processes that have been agreed, stay in your lanes. Crises are survivable but not if the response is a free-for all.\n10. Prepare for the long haul Emergencies are over in minutes or hours but crises last for years. Your response needs to be structured so that the organization can continue to devote time, resources and management focus to the problem for an extended period. All while also ensuring that the rest of the organization continues to operate. In the short term, this means having alternates to allow people to have a break, to rest and to clean up. Longer-term this can mean rotating people in and out of teams completely. This provides fresh, rested minds, new perspectives and a renewed sense of urgency and seriousness which can erode over time.\nAs soon as the response feels like routine activity, you need to change people over to maintain the urgency and respect that a crisis demands to be successful.\nBonus #11. Take it seriously To do any of this assumes that you are taking things seriously in the first place: there is a big gap between saying you are serious and actually being serious. Every organization’s leaders will say that they prioritize crisis preparedness but in practice they ignore red flags hoping they will go away, spend less time annually on crisis preparation than they do on haircuts and, when something does finally happen, don’t take it seriously until it is too late. In many situations, crises are avoidable, manageable and survivable but only if you take things seriously.\nI hope you found this top-ten useful. As a bonus, download the crib-sheet and keep it on hand as a reminder. Get the tip sheet here\nBetter still, use the links below to share this with your friends and colleagues. ","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/05/17/10-tips-for-effective-crisis-management/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI have been thinking about effective \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2018/03/01/wdymbcrisis/\"\u003ecrisis management\u003c/a\u003e a lot recently and am working on a more in-depth piece on managing a crisis which I hope to publish soon.  However, crises don’t wait until we are properly prepared before they strike so I put together this quick set of suggestions as a stop-gap.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNormally, I wouldn’t make a top-10 list but sometimes it’s the easiest way to share ideas.  So here goes and I hope you find these suggestions useful.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"10 Tips For Crisis Management"},{"content":"KISS – keep it simple stupid – was drilled into us in the military and it’s hard to unlearn some things. I still make my bed each morning – even in hotels – and always tuck in my shirt. However, KISS is more than a tired old army saying. The more I look around and think about it, the more keeping things simple seems to be the key to success. Importantly, the more complex and consequential something is, the more important it is to keep things simple.\nEnter exhibit #A19670174000.\nThe Smithsonian Air and Space Museum in Washington is an amazing collection of treasures. It is so big that it has to be split into two parts: one building in the center of DC has the smaller exhibits (where they can ‘only’ manage the smaller rockets) whereas the annex near Dulles Airport has all kinds of aircraft, rockets and even a space shuttle. It’s amazing.\nOne of my favorite exhibits is also one of the smallest. Inventory number A19670174000 is a small three ring binder called ‘Flight Operations Manual, Freedom 7’.\n(Image, Smithsonian Institute https://airandspace.si.edu/node/34263)\n“This small manual contained checklists for both normal and emergency flight operations for the flight of Alan Shepard, the First American astronaut to reach space. His suborbital Mercury flight occurred on May 5, 1961, aboard the “Freedom 7″ spacecraft.”\n–From the official description of the manual\nThis is rocket science yet this small manual contains checklists for “both normal and emergency flight operations.” That amazes me every time I look at it. It also gets me thinking about how simple we can make things. This is an extreme example of simplicity in a complex environment but certainly not the only one.\nAtul Gawande wrote The Checklist Manifesto following his observations about how, in the extremely complex world of modern surgery, applying checklists could make a dramatic difference. In one example, a simple five step checklist “had prevented forty-three infections and eight deaths, and saved two million dollars in costs” in one hospital over a two year period.\nEven though this is surgery and we would assume that these five steps would be pretty complex, they are not.\nSome of the steps in this particular checklist are as simple as ‘wash hands with soap’; ‘wear a sterile mask, hat, gown, and gloves’; ‘apply a dressing’.\nSee ‘The Checklist’, Atul Gawande in the The New Yorker, Dec 2017\nThis is a classic case of the 80 / 20 rule or Pareto Principle where 80% of effects come from 20% of causes – good or bad. While there are countless other things that might go wrong in spaceflight or surgery, focusing on the 20% that produce the maximum effect will give you the best bang for your buck.\nThis sounds like a great way to keep things simple.\nHowever, before you rush off to delete the majority of your plans, remember that simply having the Freedom 7 manual or a surgeon’s checklist would not prepare any of us to pilot a spaceship or perform brain surgery.\nSadly, I know this to be true: despite my extensive study of my ‘Space Shuttle Operator’s Manual’ as a child, I am still waiting for NASA to call*.\nTraining, expertise and knowledge remain key to the success of astronauts, surgeons and risk and crisis managers. Keeping the plan simple doesn’t mean you can do away with this foundation of skills and ability. However, a KISS approach does mean that this expertise can be applied to a complex situation in an environment that is as clean, simple and uncluttered as possible.\nSo keep it simple, embrace checklists and if you ever have the chance, stop by and take a look at Exhibit #A19670174000. If KISS is good enough for NASA, it’s good enough for the rest of us.\n*If anyone wants to get in touch, especially anyone from NASA, click here to send me an email.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/05/10/exhibit-a19670174000-a-reminder-to-kiss/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eKISS – \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KISS_principle#cite_note-BRich-3\"\u003ekeep it simple stupid\u003c/a\u003e – was drilled into us in the military and it’s hard to unlearn some things.  I still make my bed each morning – even in hotels – and always tuck in my shirt.  However, KISS is more than a tired old army saying. The more I look around and think about it, the more keeping things simple seems to be the key to success. Importantly,  the more complex and consequential something is, the more important it is to keep things simple.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Exhibit #A19670174000 – A Reminder to KISS"},{"content":"The WDYMB…Crisis? article explained what a crisis is and how these can arise. One of the most important points stressed is that crises are often avoidable and in many cases, survivable. Ultimately, this might come down to good luck and obviously the skills and abilities of the team responding play a big part. However, the chances of surviving a major event are significantly increased if the organization has prepared in advance. As far as a crisis is concerned, one of the key elements of this preparation is a crisis management plan (CMP). This article will explain what a CMP is, what it should contain and how you can develop one for your organization.\nOverview What the CMP does Think of the CMP as something which ensures that the right people, with the right training, are in the right place and provided with the right information to allow them to determine the best course of action for the organization at that time of crisis. This means that the CMP has both a preparatory function – explaining how to prepare those people beforehand – and an executive function – telling them what to do in an actual crisis.\nAs a quick aside, I am using the term crisis management plan (CMP) here because it is the most common term used but you will also see these referred to as handbooks, playbooks or manuals. As long as you have a document that meets the requirements laid out here, what you call it doesn’t really matter.\nFirstly, sitting above the CMP will be some kind of standard which provides the top-level framework for crisis management in the organization. There are number of different standards but we will be using BS 11200 as a reference. At the moment, this is the most widely referenced standard and BS11200 is also the document referenced in the WDYMB…Crisis? article.\nThe CMP is the organization’s own interpretation of the standard. It explains the crisis preparedness measures that the organization will put in place prior to an event and the processes it will utilize during a crisis. So the standard outlines what should be in place and the CMP details what that looks like in the specific organization.\nThe CMP needs to be an actionable document, written in such a way that someone can open the document and follow it easily during a time of high stress.\nBecause it covers both preparation and the response itself, the CMP is not just something that you use during a crisis. The CMP also outlines how to develop and maintain the crisis management structure before an event in addition to what to do afterwards.\nGenerally, the CMP covers the before, during and after stages of an event as follows:\nBefore – The CMP explains the structure that should be put in place, the role of the CMT, the people who should be identified to form a CMT and the kind of training and skills required for this team. Any specific equipment purchases or infrastructure requirements should also be identified prior to an event. During – The CMP provides guidance for how the CMT should operate during a crisis. This includes internal processes for the team and mechanisms to allow the CMT to coordinate with other groups such as the operational response and external stakeholders. Tools, template and responsibility checklists help guide the CMT during the crisis. After – The CMP explains the actions to take to declare a crisis over and how to manage subsequent investigations and implement lessons learned. In addition to explaining what the CMT should do, the CMP should also provide an explanation on how they should do this. However, having these two elements side-by-side can make the CMP confusing so my recommendation, reflected in the structure below, is to separate the what from the how to make the document more user-friendly and easy to follow.\nThis means that the first section is a roadmap to follow from start to finish as the crisis progresses. Part two supplies the explanatory materials to help users understand each step in part one. The CMP should also include the tools, templates and checklists that the CMT may need in a crisis and I normally put these into a final section. This allows the CMP to be the single reference that the organization can use for preparation and training prior to a crisis and to guide the CMT during the crisis itself.\nDespite this scope, there are some things the CMP cannot do.\nWhat the CMP Doesn’t Do Every possible crisis situation cannot be anticipated, so a CMP is not a step-by-step guide of every single action required to deal with a crisis. The role of the CMT is not to manage all elements of the response. Rather, the CMT is there to provide the strategic guidance, decision-making and direction for the response. The majority of the actual response activity takes place outside of the CMT. The CMP should therefore support these strategic activities. It should not cover operational actions for all eventualities.\nIn addition to the CMP, you need specific response plans for the most likely, high-risk events or anything that requires detailed, technical plans such as managing a chemical spill.\nWhile you are using your CMP, ensure that everyone involved is aware that the document is there to provide a framework for the operation of the CMT. It provides guidance on how to address the situation but it won’t contain all of the answers that they’re looking for. Finding these answers is the main role of the CMT.\nRemember, as Always, KISS Getting this balance right is very difficult and, although I have written dozens and dozens of CMPs, I’m still looking for the perfect blend of simple clear instructions and thorough guidance. Whenever I cut back and focus on simplicity, someone asks for more explanation. Alternately, if I make sure that section two is nice and detailed, people will complain that the document is too long. Sometimes, I’ve had both comments from the same group about the same document.\nThe standard that I now apply is that the document should be as simple as possible but should still allow anyone with a basic understanding of crisis management to pick it up and use it to become an effective member of the CMT. As a consultant, this was a basic test that I applied to any document I was reviewing: ‘as an outsider, could be an effective member of the team, just using this document?’. If the answer was yes, then that was a good start.\nNot only does the document need to simple and clear, but the processes inside it should also be easy to use. Remember, crises are times of high uncertainty and great complexity. Having lots of complicated processes on top of that will just make things more confusing. The speed and efficiency of the CMT is of great importance as delays at this level will slow down the whole response. Although the CMT will develop and direct the overall strategy, the majority of the actual response will be conducted by other groups, like the operational response team or the crisis communications team. Therefore, simple, robust process which facilitate and speed up the CMT’s activities have a dramatic and positive effect on the overall response. If you are familiar with the OODA loop, that’s essentially what we are trying to speed up here.\nBuilding the CMP Preparation Before you build the CMP, you need to develop your understanding: your understanding of the organization and your understanding of what ‘good’ crisis management looks like.\nUnderstanding the organization is key because you will need to work out how to adapt the standard to fit your needs. There is no point building something that is theoretically sound but has little or no chance of being adopted. For some other thoughts on how to develop this kind of understanding and how to later embed a capability, take a look at the article on integrating a risk management system.\nUnderstanding what good crisis management looks like requires you to become well acquainted with something like BS 11200. Even though understanding the system in theory is necessary, experience is also important. If you only have a theoretical understanding of crisis, speak to people who have had to deal with these situations in real life. These insights will be invaluable when it comes time to translate the standard into practical steps. As a last resort, read up on case studies to understand how to apply these theories in practice.\nAs with all procedures, the CMP should be developed to be ‘personality neutral,’ meaning that if a set of responsibilities is delegated to a role, anyone who might take that position in the CMT should be able to fulfill those duties. There will always be a mix of skills and experience in any organization so there will be a tendency to favor the most experienced (or sometimes the loudest) team members. However, a CMP that is overly reliant on specific individuals is not really a procedure because instead of relying upon the system, they are relying on a small group of individuals. Some of these individuals may not be available and all of whom will eventually leave the organization.\nHowever, as a practical matter, you should be alert to the different personalities and operating styles of the key individuals in the CMT. Although you shouldn’t reflect these in the CMP, individuals’ personality and character will have a significant impact on the way the CMT works in practice. You need to be aware of these ‘quirks’ if an actual crisis occurs.\nThe Foundation The proposed framework for the CMP is based on the nine principles for effective crisis management from BS 11 200.\nPrinciple 1 – Control. Organizations in crisis must achieve control as quickly as possible. This requires a way to classify events by severity and an effective notification and mobilization system. Principle 2 – Communicate. Organizations must be able to communicate effectively in a crisis, both internally and externally. This requires trained communications teams, good stakeholder understanding and processes for messaging. Principle 3 – Structures, Roles and Responsibilities. Clear, universally understood structures, roles and responsibilities are required in a crisis. This requires an identified team to lead in a crisis (a CMT), a framework to link crises to other types of response and clear roles and responsibilities for the CMT. Principle 4 – Situational Awareness. Organizations must be able to build and maintain situational awareness in a crisis. This requires a risk-led approach, horizon scanning and an information management process linked to decision-making. Principle 5 – Decision-Making. To facilitate clear, well-rehearsed decision-making and actions in a crisis, organizations require a clear, information-driven decision-making process and an action tracking process to monitor progress. Principle 6 – Leadership. Organizations in crisis need effective leadership at all levels. This requires leaders throughout the organization to be identified and prepared for crisis. There also needs to be strong support from senior leadership. Principle 7 – Competence. To develop and maintain the competency of staff with crisis management responsibilities, organizations should train and exercise all staff with crisis responsibilities regularly. Principle 8 – Logging and Reporting. To ensure a comprehensive record and policy log on, organizations should have a series of standard logging and reporting templates. They should also have staff who are trained in information management and log keeping. Principle 9 – Learning. To learn from mistakes and make changes to prevent reoccurring problems, organizations need a process for identifying, capturing and applying lessons learned. Core principles © BSI, ref BSI 11200 Crisis management – Guidance and good practice, 2014.\nIf you ensure that the CMP addresses each of these principles, you should have everything your organization needs to prepare for respond to and manage the outcome of a crisis. (As a way to check this, there is an assessment tool here to help asses your organization’s CM maturity as this process develops.)\nStructuring the CMP As I noted above, split the CMP into three sections to ensure that it covers both the what and how elements while still remaining easy to use. The three sections I suggest are:\nSection 1 – Crisis Management Road Map. These are the steps that the CMT should follow when responding to a crisis, laid out in broadly chronological order from initial notification through to declaring a crisis closed. I try to keep this as short and clear as possible by using flowcharts and checklists whenever possible. Section 2 – Explanation / Guidance Section. This sections provides more detailed guidance on each element of the CMP and can be used for training and preparation. This can be part of the written document or a separate annex but I am beginning to use PowerPoint presentations and even explanatory videos. These are easier for people to use and it saves having to take a lot of written material and convert it into training materials at a later date. Section 3 – Tools and Templates. This section contains any forms required by the CMT, record keeping templates and ‘pull out’ guides for the individual team members. Structuring the document in this way allows you to achieve a good balance between the what (Section one) and the how (Section two) without making the whole document too unwieldy. Make good use of references and hyperlinks to assist with navigation and ensure that you have both electronic and some paper copies of the plan available for the CMT.\nSection One Outlined below is a proposed structure for Section one of a CMP. The nine principles from BS 11200 have been rearranged to make the document more user-friendly. This will provide the CMT with a roadmap which they can use in an actual event. Note: any principles not directly related to the response, such as competence and skills training, are not included in Section one but these should be explained in Section two.\n1. Event Severity Outline a standard way to assess and describe how severe an event is up to and including a crisis.\n2. Notification and Escalation Describe the process used to notify the appropriate teams required to respond to the event and to escalate notifications up to the appropriate level based on severity.\n3. Mobilization Describe the process to use to decide if the CMT needs to be mobilized, who will make that decision and how the team will assemble.\n4. CMT Structure Explain the membership of the CMT, the reporting structure within the team and between the CMT and other elements of the response. Include the details of the primary team members and alternates for each position. Names and contact for the CMT should be included in the CMP but this can be in an annex or via electronic links to help with document maintenance.\n5. Immediate Actions on Mobilization Set out the initial steps for the CMT to take once they are mobilized. These include receiving an update on the situation, responding to immediate, urgent requests for support, notifying key external stakeholders and authorities and preparing the initial press release (if appropriate).\n6. CMT meetings. Set out a simple agenda to allow the CMT to achieve a good understanding of the situation, track progress of the response and address key issues that require CMT consideration. The agenda should be flexible to allow the CMT to tackle a range of topics but also remind the team of the need for timely decision-making to avoid slowing the overall response. A template should be included in section 3.\n7. Understanding and Decision-Making Describe a clear, simple process for developing understand and making decisions during CMT meetings. Ideally, these processes should be similar to techniques used in the organization’s day-to-day activities to help with familiarization and to cut down on the training required. Supporting templates should be included in section 3.\n8. Coordinating the Operational Response Explain how the CMT will issue directions to the various components of the operational response. It should be clear who has responsibility for liaising with each element of the operational response and how and when this should take place. Note: the responsibility may change depending on the specific situation and this should be reflected in the process.\n9. Coordinating Stakeholder and Community Relations The process for identifying stakeholder, developing key messages and communicating externally should be explained in detail. These activities will be shared between communications, HR and some senior managers so responsibilities must be clear. There also needs to be a clear approval process for the release of statements and information. Templates for key message development, stakeholder mapping and approval for the release of information should be included in section 3.\n10. Logging, Reporting and Information Management The CMT needs an efficient process to receive and share information with other parts of the organization and a way to maintaining detailed records and logs. Responsibility for information management and document control should be specified. Log-keeping templates should be included in section 3.\n11. Demobilization Have a clear process for determining that the crisis has abated and for formally declaring it over. Include a list of parties to inform when the crisis is over and who is responsible for notification.\n12. Investigations and Learning Have a clear process for initiating an investigation using objective internal or external parties. Detail how an investigation by the authorities will be handled. Explain who is responsible for ensuring that any lessons identified are shared and implemented appropriately.\nIn a perfect world, none of these 12 elements should be more than two pages long. You should keep Section One as clear and tight as possible. Additional explanation can be included in Section Two. The tools and templates in Section Three will supplement the processes.\nIf you find that the CMP is becoming too big or you are struggling to get it finished, that may be a sign that the plan is becoming too specific or complex. Don’t forget KISS.\nWhat I have tried to outline above is a simple approach and a basic structure that you can use to develop your own plan. Even if this isn’t enough to build out an entire CMP by yourself, it will at least give you a start point to consider the kind of information you need when it is time to tackle this project using an external expert or another resource.\nTesting, Revising and Maintaining the CMP Unfortunately, developing the CMP is the easy part. Training and exercising the CMT and keeping the plan up to date will require a large amount of time, effort, and a significant commitment from your senior managers. However, without these activities, the CMP will be nothing more than a document on a shelf or in a hard drive. Make sure that once it is developed, you have steps in place to embed the CMP in the organization and to keep it current.\nTraining and exercises are key elements of this and you should plan on a ‘little and often’ training regime which allows people to tackle unfamiliar skills in bite-sized chunks. Moreover, this approach also helps keep crisis management fresh and front of mind, rather than being something that you only do for an afternoon, once a year.\nOnce individual and team skills have been built up with training, you can move on to exercises. These should begin with desktop walk-though or ‘page-turns’ where you use a simple scenario as a basis to discuss what the team should do and to practice using some of the processes in the CMP.\nFrom desktop exercises, you can move on to simulations. These can be simple, modest events or as advanced as time and budget will allow. A full simulation should place the team in a stressful situation using a scenario that is as realistic as possible. As long as things remain safe, you should encourage the participants to push the boundaries of the exercise to gain the maximum benefit.\nImportantly, exercises are also an opportunity to test the CMP itself. You should continually ask ‘do these processes work?’ as you are conducting the exercise. Remember, if something doesn’t work in a training session, it certainly won’t work in a the high tempo environment of a real crisis.\nAlthough stressful, exercises will help the team develop and ensure that the CMP is robust.\nFinally, in addition to any lessons learned during training, the CMP should be revised and updated with any learning gathered from actual events. These can include near misses, incidents that the organization or a peer has experienced or changes in the operating environment. All of these will potentially expose flaws in your CMP so make sure that lessons are captured and that the plan is updated. Don’t forget to also keep an eye on changes to regulations and standards which will be updated every few years.\nSumming Up A well-trained team has a decent chance of success in a crisis but they will also benefit from a clear plan to help guide them. A less trained team has very little chance of success without a plan. Often, even experienced teams confronted with a crisis were unsuccessful because they didn’t follow their plan.\nHaving a CMP – and following it – makes an enormous difference in a crisis and can easily be the difference between success and failure. Unfortunately, there is no way to guarantee that senior leaders will follow any plan. But if you don’t even have a plan to put in front of them, then you are ensuring that the response is going to be much, much harder than it needs to.\n**Stuck and need a hand developing your plan or want someone to take a look? Use the form below to tell me a little about what you’re interested in and I will get back in touch ASAP. **\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/04/12/how-to-build-a-crisis-management-plan/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe \u003ca href=\"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/03/01/wdymbcrisis/\"\u003eWDYMB…Crisis?\u003c/a\u003e article explained what a crisis is and how these can arise.  One of the most important points stressed is that crises are often avoidable and in many cases, survivable. Ultimately, this might come down to good luck and obviously the skills and abilities of the team responding play a big part. However, the chances of surviving a major event are significantly increased if the organization has prepared in advance. As far as a crisis is concerned, one of the key elements of this preparation is a crisis management plan (CMP). This article will explain what a CMP is, what it should contain and how you can develop one for your organization.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How to Build a Crisis Management Plan"},{"content":"I have known Andy Cuerelfor a number of years and have always appreciated his in-depth yet practical approach to business continuity management. So when it was time to have someone provide a high-level overview of BCM for Riskademy, Andy was an obvious choice.\nI hope our conversation helps clarify the relationship, and differences, between crisis management and business continuity management and gives you a good overview of BCM. (If you missed the last few posts, you can read more about crisis management here.)\nIf you aren’t able to watch the video for some reason, there’s also an audio version at the bottom of the post.\n[Video: https://www.youtube.com/embed/T3H6UaWTrmI?version=3\u0026amp;rel=1\u0026amp;showsearch=0\u0026amp;showinfo=1\u0026amp;iv_load_policy=1\u0026amp;fs=1\u0026amp;hl=en\u0026amp;autohide=2\u0026amp;wmode=transparent]\nHere’s the audio track.\nhttps://riskademy.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BCM-a-conversation-with-Andy-Cuerel-FINAL_audio.m4a\nLet me know what you think. Leave a comment or share this with a friend or colleague. ","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/03/29/business-continuity-introduction/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI have known \u003ca href=\"https://www.acbusinesscontinuity.co.uk/acbusinesscontinuity-about-acbc\"\u003eAndy Cuerel\u003c/a\u003efor a number of years and have always appreciated his in-depth yet practical approach to business continuity management.  So when it was time to have someone provide a high-level overview of BCM for Riskademy, Andy was an obvious choice.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eI hope our conversation helps clarify the relationship, and differences, between crisis management and business continuity management and gives you a good overview of BCM.  (If you missed the last few posts, you can \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2018/03/01/wdymbcrisis/\"\u003eread more about crisis management here\u003c/a\u003e.)\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Meet the expert – A conversation with Andy Cuerel"},{"content":"The WDYMB…Crisis? articleprompted a few questions concerning the interactions and relationship between crisis management, business continuity management and general response. These relationships are complicated both in how these are managed and also because different disciples will view the relationships differently. Below, there is a quick video I made to help explain the relationships as I described these in the article.\nSpoiler – the graphic is a little busy so it is worth pausing the video to take a look at this before you listen to the whole thing.\n[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/Rks3ETRa?hd=0\u0026amp;autoPlay=0\u0026amp;permalink=1\u0026amp;loop=0\u0026amp;preloadContent=metadata\u0026amp;muted=0\u0026amp;playsinline=0\u0026amp;controls=1\u0026amp;cover=1]\nI hope it helps! Let me know what you think.\n~Andrew\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/03/22/incident-response-vs-crisis-vs-bcm/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2018/03/01/wdymbcrisis/\"\u003eThe WDYMB…Crisis? article\u003c/a\u003eprompted a few questions concerning the interactions and relationship between crisis management, business continuity management and general response.  These relationships are complicated both in how these are managed and also because different disciples will view the relationships differently.  Below, there is a quick video I made to help explain the relationships as I described these in the article.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eSpoiler – the graphic is a little busy so it is worth pausing the video to take a look at this before you listen to the whole thing.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Incident Response vs. Crisis vs. BCM – video"},{"content":" After 15 years, it feels very good to finally be able to write that.\nTake a look. The video might be scrappy but the app isn’t.\n[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/zX4Nf4zz?hd=0\u0026amp;autoPlay=0\u0026amp;permalink=1\u0026amp;loop=0\u0026amp;preloadContent=metadata\u0026amp;muted=0\u0026amp;playsinline=0\u0026amp;controls=1\u0026amp;cover=1]\nDCDR is live AND it has users. It’s been a busy week.\nSchedule your demo\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/03/14/dcdr-is-live-in-beta-2/","summary":"\u003ch3\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfter 15 years, it feels \u003cem\u003every\u003c/em\u003e good to finally be able to write that.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTake a look.  The video might be scrappy but the app isn’t.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/zX4Nf4zz?hd=0\u0026amp;autoPlay=0\u0026amp;permalink=1\u0026amp;loop=0\u0026amp;preloadContent=metadata\u0026amp;muted=0\u0026amp;playsinline=0\u0026amp;controls=1\u0026amp;cover=1]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDCDR is live AND it has users.   It’s been a busy week.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.youcanbook.me/\"\u003eSchedule your demo\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"DCDR is live in beta"},{"content":"When things go wrong Despite the best efforts of the risk manager and senior leadership, it’s still possible that things can go wrong for your organization. Processes aren’t followed or are applied incorrectly, mitigation measures turn out to be inadequate, something unforeseen happens or, as is so often the case, someone does something they shouldn’t. At one end of the spectrum are relatively common slips, trips or falls, minor fires, or the accidental deletion of data. More significant are the payment of bribes, cutting corners on regulations or a crass, offensive comment from an executive. At the extreme end of the spectrum are crisis events, situations that can strike a fatal blow to the organization: a chemical spill causing mass casualties, widespread fraud or a toxic culture of racism, sexism or other discrimination.\nSome of these events are ‘own goals’, caused by the organization itself, whereas others may originate externally. Whatever the cause, it is extremely unlikely that every possible eventuality can be captured and mitigated during the risk management process. There’s no avoiding it; you need to have a plan for what to do when things go wrong.\nThis article will look at the things that can go wrong and how to differentiate between different types of events. It will outline a general framework for response too. We will also introduce the key concepts around crisis preparedness and crisis management. This will be examined in more detail in other articles. The overall focus in this article is on crisis as a strategic activity and one closely linked to enterprise risk management. However, although the focus is on crisis, there is a lot of overlap with response in general and many of the same principles and processes can be applied in all situations.\nAs usual, we should set out some definitions first.\nIssue, Incident or Crisis? During the risk assessment process, the organization will have identified a range of threats, the most likely risks that it faces and worked out how to mitigate these. Broadly speaking, risks can result in one of two kinds of negative event: an incident or an issue. Despite their wide use, these two terms are not standardized so the two definitions we will use are:\nAn incident is an adverse event that might cause physical, material or financial disruption, loss or damage (adapted from BSI 11200) An issue is “a gap between corporate practice and stakeholder expectations” (from Risk, Issues and Crisis Management in Public Relations, Regester \u0026amp; Larkin, 4th ed. 2008.)\nIn addition to the differences in the effects of each event, another differentiation is based on time and space. Incidents usually occur rapidly with concentrated, physical first-order effects which can often be dealt with relatively quickly. On the other hand, issues emerge much more slowly with diffused, second-order effects that can last for months.\nIn extreme cases, an incident or issue becomes so large that it threatens the whole organization. We refer to this situation as a crisis. Luckily, we have a definition for this:\nA crisis is “[an] abnormal and unstable situation that threatens the organization’s strategic objectives, reputation or viability” (BSI 11200 Crisis Management)\nSometimes a badly managed response could mean that events simply overwhelmed whatever contingencies were put in place. At other times, the problem itself was not anticipated or was poorly diagnosed, meaning that there was no appropriate response plan in place. Maybe a series of factors combined to cause an otherwise ‘normal’ incident or issue to develop into a crisis.\nWhatever the cause, when an organization finds itself in such a situation, it is probably facing a crisis that requires a different approach.\nAs always, be wary of a specific term being used carelessly. You will often hear individuals and organizations say something along the lines of ‘we are always in crisis’. This is nonsense as it’s not possible to always be in crisis because the organization would simply collapse.\nEven organizations that are constantly faced with instability and danger, such as NGOs working in complex environments, aren’t in perpetual crisis. They just have a different version of what normal looks like, and this raises an important point about the relative or subjective nature of crises.\nCrises are highly subjective so the same incident that causes a crisis for one organization, may be a minor event somewhere else. For example, losing $250,000 may be a rounding error for a Fortune Five company but that kind of loss could sink a small not-for-profit organization. Therefore, rather than trying to determine what constitutes a crisis based on the magnitude of an event, think about the effect on the organization’s objectives[1].\nA crisis only occurs when the organization itself is under threat and where failure would mean fundamental, lasting change. As the definition above notes, this is a situation “that threatens the organization’s strategic objectives.”\nIf your immediate thought is to call 911, it’s an incident. If your first thought is to contact your PR department, it’s an issue. If you think you should call both, or aren’t sure, then it could be a crisis.\nBut then what?\nResponding to a Crisis Response is a very broad topic that covers everything from minor first aid to the steps required to deal with a company-killing crisis. Each of these areas is highly specialized and comes with its own terminology, peculiarities and sub-sets of specialization. A robust response capability should be something that can be adapted to any situation.\nAnything that is overly-specialized is likely to prevent a unified, coordinated response and this will simply make an already bad situation worse. Again, this is a broad topic so all we will cover here is a very high-level review of crisis response to introduce you to the ‘system of systems’ that makes up an effective response capability.\nWhatever situation you are dealing with – issue, incident or crisis – your reaction can be thought of as occurring in three parts or phases: before, during and after the event.\nActivities before an event will include mitigation measures arising from the risk assessment, scenario-specific response planning, training and exercises. All of this can be broadly lumped into the category of preparedness. During an event, we are concerned with response, which can be used to refer to incidents, issues or crises. After the event, the focus is on recovery and resumption of ‘business as usual’. Even though we are thinking about responding to a crisis, it is vital to think about the activities before and after because these are equally critical to success. In the same way that an athlete doesn’t just turn up and win gold at the Olympics, the seeds for an effective response are sewn months or years beforehand through careful preparation.\nOnce things calm down, even an event that is managed successfully will have caused an organization to deviate from business as usual. If nothing is done to recover, this post-event disruption could still have a major impact on the organization’s objectives.\nPreparedness Preparedness begins with the risk assessment as the results of the assessment will help the organization focus on it’s most critical risks so it can begin to prepare. In addition to these organization-specific threats, there will also be mandatory precautions to take for more general threats, such as how to respond to a fire or a data loss. This combination of scenario-specific and mandatory requirements provides the organization’s preparedness ‘to do’ list and the planning can begin.\nAlthough issues and incidents are abnormal situations, these can still be very structured, making planning more straightforward for lower-impact events. Often, a range of incidents will be grouped together and covered in a single emergency response plan (ERP). This is then supplemented by scenario-specific plans such as how to respond to a spill or data breach. Plans will explain the response structure, roles and responsibilities, and specific actions to take, depending on the situation.\nIn more complex situations, there may be a combination of incidents and issues so these basic plans will not be sufficient. Crisis situations require more flexible plans that strike a balance between providing a supportive framework for the response team while still leaving sufficient freedom of action to address the specific needs of that situation. These plans are usually called crisis management plans (CMP).\nLearn how to build a CMP here\nThe organization can use the processes in the CMP to diagnose the situation and determine the best solution before it employs scenario-specific plans to deal with the particular set of incidents and issues that it faces.\nThe next step in developing preparedness is training and exercising. Individuals and teams need to learn their roles and refine their skills through training and in exercises where realistic situations can be simulated. Plans must be tested and refined to ensure that these address the challenges of individual scenarios and that processes work in practice.\nPreparedness also includes purchasing the necessary equipment, preparing response facilities, implementing horizon scanning mechanisms and a number of other elements.\nResponse In that same way that the plans for incidents differ from those for a crisis, so does the response itself. In an incident or issue, the correct course of action is often quite obvious and there will be a clear response plan in place. However, despite having a clear plan in place, the actual response to an incident can be difficult and dangerous.\nIn contrast, a crisis is a situation defined by uncertainty and complexity: there are usually no good answers, only less bad ones. A lot of this complexity will arise from the fact that crises are very rarely due to a single causal event. Therefore, unlike an incident or issue where a pre-developed response plan can be implemented, crises require a blended response.\nNot only will there be the initial trigger event, but other factors will act as a catalyst or accelerator, making the situation much worse. For example, small spills of a few pints of oil are commonplace in refineries but this could cause havoc if released into a city’s water supply. Moreover, if the company had already been told to clean up its act because of previous spills, the public, stakeholders, and regulators would be much less willing to forgive what could otherwise be a manageable incident and a crisis would ensue.\nUnderstanding the situationand developing an appropriate plan in a crisis can be difficult. Developing an understanding of the situation and a suitable plan will be the main focus of the crisis management team (CMT) at the beginning of the response. Once the situation is understood, knowing what to do can be relatively straightforward although actually taking appropriate action can be hard. Often organizations in crisis are confronted with uncomfortable situations which lead them to delay doing the right thing which only exacerbates the situation. As Colin Powell observed,\n“Bad news isn’t wine. It doesn’t improve with age.”\nAnother element to consider as part of the response is time. As noted earlier, an incident will often be over very quickly but a major issue or crisis can drag on for months or even years. This means that in addition to a degree of endurance, organizations in crisis also need to find a way to manage the crisis alongside day-to-day operations. This brings us on to business continuity: “the capability of the organization to continue delivery of products or services at acceptable predefined levels following a disruptive incident” (ISO 22313 Business Continuity Management Systems).\nThe organization will be managing the crisis itself (crisis management), getting the affected parts of the organization back to ‘accepted levels’ of service delivery (business continuity management) while also making sure that the unaffected parts of the business are also taken care of. The emphasis between these three elements will shift over time but this is not a sequential series of activities. Organizations may have to balance all three for an extended period of time.\nFinally, it is important to note that it is entirely possible for an organization to manage a crisis successfully and to avoid the worst of the damage. With robust plans and procedures, a well-trained staff and an effective response, a crisis can be managed and disaster [2] avoided.\n“So long as the ship rides out the storm, so long as the city resists the earth shocks, so long as the levees hold, there is no disaster.” [3]\nSuccessful response or not, at some point, the crisis will be over and the organization will have to move onto the final stage, recovery.\nRecovery Recovery focuses on getting the organization back to normality after the crisis. Although this might sound a lot like business continuity, the big difference is defining what ‘normal’ looks like.\nIf the crisis has been handled well, recovery will concentrate on getting the business back to its pre-event normal. However, if the crisis overwhelmed the organization, it could have to adapt to a ‘new normal’ where it occupies a very different place in society. If the results were catastrophic, the new normal may be the dissolution of the organization altogether.\nThe financial crisis of 2008 gives us an example of each. JP Morgan escaped relatively unscathed so their post-crisis normal wasn’t significantly different from pre-crisis. However, the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in the UK was bailed out by the government with part of the deal being transfer of control of the bank to the British government. So although RBS survived the financial crisis, their post-crisis normal was significantly different from their pre-crisis situation. At the extreme, US bank Lehman Brothers collapsed: for Lehman there was no post-crisis.\nThe example of Lehman Brothers, as with Barings Bank, PanAm and Union Carbide before it, reminds us that sometimes there is no recovery and the only thing happening after a crisis is a ‘fire sale’ of assets.\nHowever, for companies that weather the storm, recovery will involve rebuilding operational capacity and stakeholder confidence, something that can take months or years. As with the response phase, there is still a need to keep day-to-day operations running alongside recovery efforts so management time, energy and attention needs to be allocated carefully.\nSummary This has been a very quick review of some of the main elements associated with crisis. As such, this has only skimmed the surface and there are a number of things that I have deliberately oversimplified. However, I hope that this has given you a sense of what we mean by the term ‘crisis’ and how this aligns with, yet differs from, incidents or issues. You should also have a sense of what is meant by crisis preparedness, crisis management, business continuity management and recovery, all topics that we will cover in more depth in other articles.\nMar 22, 2018 – I just added a short videoto help explain the relationships described in this article.\nI hope you found this useful but please email me and let me know what you think – good or bad, all thoughts are welcome!\n~Andrew\nFootnotes\n[1] This consideration of effects, not causes, neatly ties into the ISO definition of risk as ‘the effect of uncertainty on objectives’.\n[2] While a crisis is a situation that could cause enormous change, a disaster is the situation after that change has occurred. This is most often used to describe a situation where a community or area has suffered enormous damage due to either man-made or natural events. Extreme weather events, conflict, drought and famine are all disasters as the degree of change is so significant that things have altered fundamentally.\n[3] Carr, 1932: 211. Disasters and The Sequence Pattern Concept of Social Change, American Journal of Sociology.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/03/01/wdymbcrisis/","summary":"\u003ch2 id=\"when-things-go-wrong\"\u003eWhen things go wrong\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite the best efforts of the risk manager and senior leadership, it’s still possible that things can go wrong for your organization. Processes aren’t followed or are applied incorrectly, mitigation measures turn out to be inadequate, something unforeseen happens or, as is so often the case, someone does something they shouldn’t. At one end of the spectrum are relatively common slips, trips or falls, minor fires, or the accidental deletion of data. More significant are the payment of bribes, cutting corners on regulations or a crass, offensive comment from an executive. At the extreme end of the spectrum are crisis events, situations that can strike a fatal blow to the organization: a chemical spill causing mass casualties, widespread fraud or a toxic culture of racism, sexism or other discrimination.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"WDYMB…Crisis?"},{"content":"I’ve just uploaded a short video showing one of the functional assessment apps in use. Although the methodology is different from the full DCDR tool, the approach and functionality is very similar:\nFast? Check!\nSimple? Check!\nEasy to use? Check!\nSo here’s a taster of what the DCDR app is going to look like. Enjoy!\n[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/xThbiOro?hd=0\u0026amp;autoPlay=0\u0026amp;permalink=1\u0026amp;loop=0\u0026amp;preloadContent=auto\u0026amp;muted=0\u0026amp;playsinline=0\u0026amp;controls=1\u0026amp;cover=1]\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/02/20/apps-in-action-2/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI’ve just uploaded a short video showing one of the functional assessment apps in use.  Although the methodology is different from the full DCDR tool, the approach and functionality is very similar:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFast?  Check!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSimple? Check!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEasy to use? Check!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo here’s a taster of what the DCDR app is going to look like. Enjoy!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/xThbiOro?hd=0\u0026amp;autoPlay=0\u0026amp;permalink=1\u0026amp;loop=0\u0026amp;preloadContent=auto\u0026amp;muted=0\u0026amp;playsinline=0\u0026amp;controls=1\u0026amp;cover=1]\u003c/p\u003e","title":"DCDR App demo – Feb 2018"},{"content":"Opportunity overload continues to be the biggest threat to DCDR right now: I keep finding myself being seduced by thoughts of what the app could do, rather than what the core feature set should be. Luckily, I am getting good advice from Matt and from the several thousands of hours of podcasts and interviews I have consumed. As usual, the problem isn’t getting the right advice. Following the advice, however, is always more difficult. I am finding Paul Graham’s advice particularly useful and his ‘Startups in 13 Sentences‘ essay has become my roadmap.\nDevelopment-wise, things are going well. The basic app with the core methodology installed is running and security / permissions are looking good. (I have never been so excited not to see something before.) Assessment upload and reporting / editing functionality are being wrapped up ready for final testing.\nAll of this is just in time for the pilot program which kicks off in early March and the first few users are signed up.\nFor the pilot program, the emphasis has been on building a functioning application, not just a demo or framework. It seems slightly disingenuous to trial something that doesn’t really work plus, without real people using a real product, we aren’t going to get useable feedback. So instead of an MVP this will be a MFP (mainly functional product) which, even though it might not look very pretty, will still produce usable results.\nAlongside the main project, I’ve built and launched a few small tools to act as proof of concept / test cases. These work as stand-alone tools but will eventually become part of the standards and methodology library that users can access in the main app. Please take a lookand tell me what you think.\nSo the rubber is about to meet the road with the pilot program. Safe to say, I’m more than a little nervous…!\nThe pilot program is open for registration so if you are interested in participating or would like to arrange a demo, [please send an email](mailto:chat@dcdr.io?subject=Pilot Program).\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/02/19/dcdr-update-mid-february-2018-2/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eOpportunity overload continues to be the biggest threat to DCDR right now: I keep finding myself being seduced by thoughts of what the app \u003cem\u003ecould\u003c/em\u003e do, rather than what the core feature set \u003cem\u003eshould\u003c/em\u003e be. Luckily, I am getting good advice from Matt and from the several thousands of hours of podcasts and interviews I have consumed. As usual, the problem isn’t getting the right advice.  Following the advice, however, is always more difficult.  I am finding Paul Graham’s advice particularly useful and his ‘\u003ca href=\"http://paulgraham.com/13sentences.html\"\u003eStartups in 13 Sentences\u003c/a\u003e‘ essay has become my roadmap.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"DCDR Update – mid-February 2018"},{"content":"I confess to having a love / hate relationship with standards. On the plus side, having an agreed way of doing things is incredibly attractive. There is no need to spend long periods trying to design a system; shared terms, concepts and processes; easy collaboration between different groups. So when they work well, standards are great and definitely have a lot going for them. Yay!\nHowever, there are also drawbacks.\nSadly, many standards are badly written and difficult to follow. Sometimes this is due to the complexity of the topic which makes it hard to boil things down into a simple one-size-fits-all document. Sometimes, the people writing the standard are experts in the subject but not experts in writing standards which means that the expertise is lost in a confusing, poorly written document.\nIf you understand your field but don’t understand the standard, you probably aren’t the problem.\nAlternately, the lack of clarity could be because the standard was the work of a committee and, by trying to accommodate everyone’s ‘pet’ ideas, the overall standard becomes incoherent. Worst of all, it can sometimes feel as though the standard is deliberately vague. In these cases, you might also find that the issuing organization also sells training courses to teach you how to use the standard…. Grrr!\nIn light of this, we need a way to maximize the upside (more love) and minimize the downside (less hate).\nNote: when I say ‘standard,’ I mean a recognized reference document which provides a definition, structure, top-level guidance and key processes for an activity. These can be internal documents or something developed by a third-party like an institute or international body. From a risk perspective, ISO 31000, the enterprise risk management standard, is probably the most recognizable.\nMaximizing the Upside of Standards For all of the positive reasons above, I definitely think it’s worth your time becoming familiar with whatever standards might be applicable for your organization. However, because of the negative elements I have outlined, I appreciate that this can be hard.\nLuckily, Riskacademy is all about making things simple so here are three ideas to reduce the negative elements of working with standards. The DCDR risk software project means I am having to work with a wide range of standards, no matter how awful these might be, and this is what I’m doing to minimize the pain. Hopefully these three tips will help you too.\nTo Comply or Not to Comply? Before we go any farther, I must stress that if you have regulatory obligations or are required to adhere to standards by law, you have no choice: you must comply. Deliberate non-compliance almost always ends up with some kind of legal process. Even if it doesn’t go that far, you are still creating a negative, toxic culture. If management sends the signal that the organization will pick and choose which regulations to follow, people farther down the organization will follow suit and begin to ignore any guidance they don’t like. This cannot end well and will create a whole host of risks that you don’t want to deal with.\nTo paraphrase Nike, when it comes to regulations, just do it!\nNote: even when a regulation is mandatory, some of the following points still apply, so read on. You may find that the ‘must do’ sections of a regulation are not as bad as these first appear.\nIdentify the Core Principles Most standards will include many different sections but the core principles are, in my mind, the most important. These principles boil everything down into simple statements that you can use to guide your work. For example, the second principle in ISO 31000 states:\n“Risk management is an integral part of all organizational processes”\nISO 31000 (C) ISO\nFrom this, I know that ERM has to be integrated. It has to embed across the whole organization and it is part of routine processes. A common question when considering ERM is ‘when and where do we apply this?’ and principle two answers this neatly: everywhere and all the time.\nExactly how I make this happen will depend on my organization. I know that ISO 31000 also contains suggestions to help me with ERM integration but that is just my guidance and is not mandatory. I can use this guidance to best suit my needs, but I don’t need to slavishly follow the standard word-for-word as long as I am adhering to the overall principles.\nThis leads to the next suggestion…\nAlways Check the Small Print In many cases, the standard will contain words similar to these.\n*“The user must follow the general SRA method but may use customized methods to conduct the SRA. **As *long as the process is consistent with the following five steps, the method considers all normative language in the standards, and the end result meets the same objective. “\nThe American Petroleum Institute (API) STD 780 Security Risk Assessment (C)The API\nThis gives you enormous flexibility “so long as the process is consistent with the following five steps, the method considers all normative language in the standards, and the end result meets the same objective”. This is not dissimilar to how we apply principles: you have to still meet the same objective but the standard gives you flexibility as to how you achieve that.\nMany standards have a clause like this or definitions somewhere to help you determine what is mandatory versus what is simply guidance. Some documents which look like standards may even include clarification to stress the contrary.\nAs a guide, this British Standard takes the form of guidance and recommendations. It should not be quoted as if it were a specification or a code of practice and claims of compliance cannot be made to it.\nBSI 1120 – Crisis Management – Guidance and Good Practice\nDifferentiating between the mandatory elements of a standard and what is simply guidance gives you a lot of flexibility during implementation. Even if you plan to implement the whole thing eventually, beginning with the mandatory elements allows you to take a layered approach instead of trying to tackle everything at once. The key point is that this is totally permissible – it says so in the standard itself.\nThis also allows you to work around flaws in the standard which, as I mentioned in the introduction, are sadly too common. For example, most ISO standards seem to include the ‘Plan, Do, Check, Act‘ cycle whether it is applicable or not and the API standard mentioned above is confusing and hard to follow. Being able to identify the mandatory elements will allow you to overcome shortfalls in the document and still benefit from the positive elements of the standard.\nThis ‘pick and mix’ approach leads to the last point: why are you using the standard in the first place?\nWhat’s the Standard for Anyway? The most important question to ask before you start implementing a standard is ‘what are we trying to achieve?’. Sometimes there is a regulatory requirement to adhere to a standard. However, most often, organizations are trying to implement ‘best practice’. This is an elusive concept which usually means ‘let’s do what everyone else is doing’ – i.e. common practice – rather that deliberately seeking out what is good and implementing that. A well researched, thoughtful and well written standard should offer a template for what good practice looks like but trying to achieve full compliance with a standard might not be as useful as it seems.\nI recently spoke with Andy Cuerel of AC Business Continuity, a business continuity management consultancy, and this was one of the topics that came up. Andy has over 15 years of experience implementing systems, primarily around ISO 22310, the business continuity management standard. He stressed that aligning with a standard is a much easier and faster way of improving an organization without the difficulty of full compliance. In this sense, aligning means that you are adopting all the same work practices and processes outlined in a standard but without taking the final step of being audited for compliance.\nAndy noted that in his experience, implementing 75% of a standard will generate the majority of the benefits with significantly less cost and disruption compared to full compliance. He also cautioned that the last 25% of implementation required for full compliance can be hard to achieve. It can even be detrimental to the overall operation of a business if not approached carefully.\nThis ratio is similar to the Pareto’s Principle or the 80/20 rulewhere 80% of the effect or benefit comes from 20% of the cause or input. I am also a strong believer in this approach having seen it’s effects in many situations. I apply the 80/20 rules to a lot of the Riskademy material and it also underpins the DCDR app.\nBe sure to think about what it is that you are trying to achieve before you charge forward and try to become fully compliant with a standard. Remember that the purpose of a standard is to improve an activity, not simply to receive a certificate of compliance.\nBe a Lover, not a Hater As I said, I have a love / hate relationship with standards but I have applied these three rules successfully to maximize their usefulness and to minimize the pain. I hope these also help when you are considering how to best implement a standard or regulation.\nRemember, when it comes to standards, be a lover, not a hater!\nWhat standards are applicable to your business? Send me a quick emailto let me know. It would really help me know what I should be reading up on.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2018/01/15/i-love-and-hate-standards-you-should-too/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI confess to having a love / hate relationship with standards. On the plus side, having an agreed way of doing things is incredibly attractive.  There is no need to spend long periods trying to design a system; shared terms, concepts and processes; easy collaboration between different groups.  So when they work well, standards are great and definitely have a lot going for them.  Yay!\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, there are also drawbacks.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"I Love (and Hate) Standards –   You Should Too"},{"content":"For most people, this will be a busy time of the year: end of year performance reviews, last-minute budget planning, holiday parties or a final push to achieve their annual goals. All of this adds up to a very busy time when all you want to do it take a break. However, there’s one other thing I’m going to suggest you squeeze in before you start next year’s ERM program.\nAn end of year review.\nThis review will neatly tie up everything you did over the past year and get you ready for the next. And best of all, it’s something you can do in an afternoon.\nThe time you dedicate to this review will pay dividends in the long run so give yourself until mid-January to get this done but make sure you have wrapped up one year’s program before you move on to the next. Plus, rather than seeing this as the end of this year’s activity, this is actually the start of next year’s program and you are actually going to be ahead of the game.\nWhy conduct a review? Firstly, let’s say what this isn’t.\nThis isn’t a deep-dive into the ERM project plan or an update to the risk assessment. These should all be activities that are part of the normal monthly or quarterly cycle.\nInstead, this review is a chance to get an overall sense of the health of the program before you move on. The review will help you get a sense of what’s been done, what needs to be done and what challenges you need to keep in mind over the next year.\nThis is a very high-level review and, unlike a lot of risk management activity, this isn’t the time to be the details guy or gal for a couple of reasons.\nFirstly, you will get sucked into the weeds which will keep you from seeing the big picture. Secondly, you don’t have the time right now for a detailed review. Staying at a high level stops you trying to rush something that needs a lot of time. So avoid the details for a moment and stick to a high-level review. To help with this, I put together the ‘3x3x3’ approach which is a great way of keeping your review focussed.\n3x3x3 The 3x3x3 idea is a very simple way to approach the review. You are going to consider three areas, identify three key points for each and do this in three hours. By the end of the review you will have:\nHighlighted three achievements from this year that have helped develop the organization’s ERM maturity Confirmed three goals for next year’s ERM program Identified three challenges or issues that need to be monitored Three areas, three key points in three hours. Easy.\nThe Review There are five simple steps in the review. These help you understand where your are, where you want to go and what might stand in your way.\nStep 1 – Review the health of the ERM program\nStep 2 – Consider what’s been achieved in the last year and lessons learned\nStep 3 – Review the organization’s objectives and identify your ERM goals\nStep 4 – Think about what might change what ’normal’ looks like in the next year\nStep 5 – Summarize your findings and lay out your ‘three threes’\nIf you want to jump in right away, there’s a worksheet here to get you started. The Review in Detail Step 1 – Review the Health of the ERM System This is a great time to assess the health of your ERM program to act as a baseline for everything else. This review establishes where the ERM program is ‘today’ which will help you identify the progress you have made (step 2) and help identify gaps to fill in the next year (step 3).\nRemember, we are only interested in a very high-level review so something like the eleven principles detailed in ISO 31000 are a good place to start. (I’ve built a simple online tool where you can asses your system’s maturity using the ISO 31000 principles. Find it here.)\nStep 2 – Consider what’s been Achieved in the Last Year and the Key Lessons Learned Use the results of step 1 to identify what you achieved this year. If this isn’t your first review, also use last year’s review as a benchmark for comparison. Even if your ERM program is relatively new, you should still identify, record and celebrate your achievements. Remember, ERM is an ongoing process so the project never really ends but don’t allow the never-ending to-do list to mask your achievements.\nAcknowledging progress helps you track how things are developing but is also important for morale (and sanity) purposes. Remember that showing progress and the benefits of formal risk management is also an essential step to embed an ERM system in your organization.\nMake sure you also identify any key lessons learned from these achievements along with any barriers to success that you have encountered. This will help you reinforce the positives next year and increase your chances of success.\nHaving looked back, it’s now time to look forward. Step 3 – Review the Organization’s Objectives and your ERM Goals Before you look at your ERM goals, ensure that you review the organization’s strategic objectives for the next year. This will ensure that you remain aligned with the organization and keep these objectives in mind while you develop your ERM goals.\nWhile goal setting, look at the progress that you have made this year. Was there sufficient progress to allow you to move onto these goals? Do any of the lessons learned apply to next year’s goals. Might your goals need to be adjusted in light of upcoming events (step 4)?\nGoals should stretch you and the risk management team but goals also need to be achievable and realistic. Don’t set yourself and your team unrealistic targets for the next year but ensure that your goals help support the organization’s overall objectives. (There’s a useful article on S.M.A.R.T. goal setting with links to other resources here.)\nStep 4 – Think about what could Change what ’Normal’ looks like Next Year Ok, now it’s time to get out your crystal ball and start forecasting the future…\nDon’t worry, we aren’t trying to predict the future. We are just trying to identify some of the ‘known knowns’ and ‘known unknowns’ that could cause issues in the next year.\nKnown Knowns The dates of many events such as team vacations, an office relocation or corporate restructuring will be known in advance. These are ‘known knowns’. Importantly, the likely effects will also be known in advance so although these events can disrupt your program, you just need to plan for these in advance.\nKnown Unknowns There are also events where the timing is known in advance but the effects are unknown. These are ‘known unknowns’. Elections, changes to senior leadership or the resolution of a court case all may be on a timetable that is known well in advance but the outcomes are unknown. Be prepared for the results of these events to have an effect on your activities and plan accordingly. Schedule strategy and plan reviews for after the outcome of these events and delay any major strategic decisions until the effects are clear.\nCategorize these events as macro, organizational or personal / team and put together a simple calendar. Again, you aren’t doing any detailed planning but this gives you a sense of what you should be looking out for in the next year and helps schedule activity to around period of disruption.\nHere’s a simple example of a calendar broken down into quarters:\n*At a glance, this immediately shows us that the risk management team will be busy in Q1 helping manage the ERM elements of the annual report. In Q2, the Southern Africa and European teams will be busy or unavailable and there will be uncertainty about new financial regulations and compliance. You know it’s aways difficult to tie down US team members in late Q4 plus the election adds some more uncertainty around this period. *However, Q2 looks like a good time to schedule big pieces of work and there is also a decent amount of time to respond to any regulatory changes following their release in late August.\nNow you have a neat, short summary of what the year ahead looks like to help with planning, scheduling and horizon scanning.\nNow that we have gathered all of our information, it’s time to wrap everything up in the final step. Step 5 – Summarize your Findings and Lay out your ‘Three Threes’ Now, consolidate everything you did in steps 1 – 4 and write out your ‘three threes’. As a reminder, these are:\nThree achievements from this year that have helped develop the organization’s ERM maturity Three goals for next year’s ERM program Three challenges or issues that need to be monitored This gives you a simple record of where you were, what you did and where you are going, with the review of the ERM system acting as a baseline for reference. This will give you a good sense of the state of the ERM program at year’s end and what the next 12 months should look like.\nWhen you’re ready, get the worksheet here. Getting it Done This review shouldn’t take more than a morning or afternoon but still, it’s a busy time of year. However, you don’t have to do all of this in one session. For example:\nIf you are a solo risk manager, set aside 20 minutes each day to tackle steps 1 – 4. At the end of the week, take an hour to review everything and complete step 5\nIf you have a team, give each team member one item to work on in their own time. Bring everyone together as a team for 90 minutes where you spend the first hour reviewing steps 1 – 4 and use the last half hour to complete step 5 together.\nWhatever your situation, I’m sure you can find three hours by the middle of January to get this done. Even if you can’t take on the review today, schedule some time in January right now to make sure this doesn’t slip your mind.\nRemember that the time you invest wrapping up this year will pay dividends when you start work on next year’s program.\nThat’s it! So that’s the 3x3x3 model. Now you have:\nA summary of the results of the system review (step 1) Three achievements from this year that have helped develop the organization’s ERM maturity (step 2) Three goals for next year’s ERM program (step 3) Three challenges or issues that need to be monitored (Step 4) It shouldn’t take more than three hours. Book in the time to do this by the middle of January and you will have a solid start for next year’s program.\nThanks as always for being part of Riskademy but before you go, just take a moment to reflect on what you’ve achieved this year.\nGood job!\nBest wishes for a fantastic New Year!\n***PS – If you found this useful, it would be great if you could use the ‘sharing’ options below to send this on to someone else. I’d really appreciate it as it helps me grow the blog and keep Riskademy going. ***\nThank you.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/12/20/your-end-of-year-risk-management-review/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eFor most people, this will be a busy time of the year: end of year performance reviews, last-minute budget planning, holiday parties or a final push to achieve their annual goals. All of this adds up to a very busy time when all you want to do it take a break.  However, there’s one other thing I’m going to suggest you squeeze in before you start next year’s ERM program.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Get your ERM System Ready for Next Year in just One Afternoon"},{"content":"Meet the expert – Crisis Communications with Price Floyd We are kicking off our ‘meet the expert’ series with an interview with Price Floyd, the founder of the Engaging America Projectand an expert in risk and crisis communications. Price has over 25 years of experience in government and the private sector and here he shares over a dozen key lessons he has learned including:\nThe difference between communications in government and the private sector How digital media has improved crisis communications Why it’s too late to call the communications team when things start going wrong The number one skill for communicators Why it’s important to tend the garden (and what this means) Watch the video to hear these and many more key lessons that you can put into action today.\n[Video: https://www.youtube.com/embed/9kXmpysz08c?version=3\u0026amp;rel=1\u0026amp;showsearch=0\u0026amp;showinfo=1\u0026amp;iv_load_policy=1\u0026amp;fs=1\u0026amp;hl=en\u0026amp;autohide=2\u0026amp;wmode=transparent]\nAbout Price Price Floyd is the founder of the Engaging America Project and has over 25 years of communications experience at senior levels of government, private sector and think tanks. Currently, Price leads 300 Media Group, a public relations firm. He previously was a senior public relations expert with Blue Engine Message and Media; Vice President of Communications, for BAE Systems; head of Public Affairs for the U.S. Department of Defense and Director of External Relations for the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. Price Floyd started his communications career at the U.S. Department of State where he served from 1989-2007.\nRead more about The Engaging America Project\nFind Price on Twitter @pricefloyd\nRead more about risk and crisis communications.\nSign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/10/19/meet-the-expert-crisis-communications-with-price-floyd/","summary":"\u003ch3 id=\"meet-the-expert--crisis-communications-with-price-floyd\"\u003eMeet the expert – Crisis Communications with Price Floyd\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe are kicking off our ‘meet the expert’ series with an interview with Price Floyd, the founder of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.engagingamericaproject.org/\"\u003eEngaging America Project\u003c/a\u003eand an expert in risk and crisis communications.  Price has over 25 years of experience in government and the private sector and here he shares over a dozen key lessons he has learned including:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThe difference between communications in government and the private sector\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHow digital media has improved crisis communications\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWhy it’s too late to call the communications team when things start going wrong\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThe number one skill for communicators\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWhy it’s important to tend the garden (and what this means)\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWatch the video to hear these and many more key lessons that you can put into action today.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Meet the expert – Crisis Communications with Price Floyd"},{"content":"I’m trying to improve my videos so apologize for the quality but here’s a quick video with 10 quick thoughts on risk management.\n[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/zX8wUAWO?hd=0\u0026amp;autoPlay=0\u0026amp;permalink=1\u0026amp;loop=0\u0026amp;preloadContent=metadata\u0026amp;muted=0\u0026amp;playsinline=0\u0026amp;controls=1\u0026amp;cover=1]\nLet me know what you think!\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/10/01/10-quick-thoughts-on-risk/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eI’m trying to improve my videos so apologize for the quality but here’s a quick video with 10 quick thoughts on risk management.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/zX8wUAWO?hd=0\u0026amp;autoPlay=0\u0026amp;permalink=1\u0026amp;loop=0\u0026amp;preloadContent=metadata\u0026amp;muted=0\u0026amp;playsinline=0\u0026amp;controls=1\u0026amp;cover=1]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLet me know what you think!\u003c/p\u003e","title":"10 quick thoughts on risk"},{"content":"Enterprise security risk management (ESRM) has been a topic of increasing interest for security managers over the past few years. ASIS International has identified it as a strategic focus. However, after a review of the literature, beginning with the 2010 CSO roundtable paper on ESRM, two issues are raised that could make ESRM implementation difficult.\nThe initial papers on ESRM appeared to encourage security to fill the gap left by traditional enterprise risk management (ERM) systems, which often focused on financial and market risk exclusively. Although an effective ERM system should incorporate all risks, having security fill these gaps via the ESRM system would quickly overwhelm the chief security officer (CSO).\nAppealing through it might be to have “Head of Risk Management” appended to one’s job title, “I’m not busy” is NOT a common refrain among security managers. In many organizations, managing the risks across all security functions—that is, physical, cyber, and information—is already an enormous task, so operational and reputational risk should remain elsewhere.\nThe idea that all responsibility for risk should fall to security seems to have tapered off somewhat since the first few papers on ESRM, but security managers will still be better served if they ensure that ESRM focuses on the “S” in the title, security.\nSecondly, there is often a tendency towards complexity and granularity in ESRM systems where simplicity is more appropriate. Risk management is an area where it is easy to quickly become bogged down in detail, and the drive for more and better data can stymie the process. If we consider the ISO definition of risk as “the effect of uncertainty on objectives” (ISO 73), trying to become more and more specific overlooks the baked-in nature of uncertainty.\nMoreover, when quality data is not available, as is often the case with security issues, trying to analyze risk at a more and more granular level can produce a less-accurate assessment. Granularity and massive amounts of information can be used in Big Data systems, but most organizations don’t produce enough security-specific data for that kind of analysis. This can still go wrong even with large amounts of data. As an example, tinkering at the micro level while assessing the risks in the U.S. mortgage bond markets back in 2008 gave the impression that things were fine, even though all the warning signs were visible (but largely ignored) at the macro level.\nMoving to ESRM with a KISS Approach\nAlthough more complicated than a purely security-centric approach, a risk-led approach is an effective way to approach security. This directly links security activities to the organization’s overall objectives and goals, integrating security risk with the organization’s overall ERM system. This approach also helps bridge the gap with contingency planning, business continuity management, and crisis management, and it significantly improves response and post-event recovery. Moreover, ESRM helps the elements within the security function coordinate more effectively.\nFinally, a robust and effective risk management system also removes a great deal of subjectivity from planning and decision making, which enhances organizational efficiency. In many ways, risk is the common language of business and the sooner we all share that language, the more effective we will be. Investing time and effort into the ESRM system and moving towards a risk-led approach does pay off in the long run.\nAs you can see, there are real benefits in implementing an ESRM system but these two issues—pushing security to take on a wider risk management role and a tendency towards complexity—could make implementation seem an impossible task and one that many CSOs would find daunting, deterring them from taking this course. However, an ESRM system does not have to be overly complex, nor something that disrupts day-to-day operations.\nIn fact, for most security managers, a KISS approach—keep it simple, security folks—is the best way to tackle ESRM. This does not suggest that there aren’t challenges in implementing an ESRM system or that additional work and change won’t be necessary. A KISS approach facilitates implementation and makes the ESRM system much more effective.\nBut how can we do this and keep things simple?\nFour basic principles can assist with the implementation of a simple yet effective ESRM program: use a standard approach, start speaking risk, become objectives-led, and accept uncertainty.\nDownload a worksheet to help you plan your ESRM system here Use a standard approach to risk management, not one that is security-specific.\nEach business or function will want a solution that is tailored to it’s needs, but this causes inefficiency when working in a cross-functional environment. Imagine for one second what would happen if every department used its own accounting processes: mayhem, and probably lawsuits, would ensue. This problem could even arise within the security function itself if cyber security tried to use one approach to risk management, and asset protection used a different one.\nA robust, comprehensive risk management system will allow room for adjustment at the functional level while still applying a standard approach that can be used across the entire organization. Instead of finding a security-specific definition for risk, or processes tailored to the department, start with a basic approach to risk management. Ideally, this would mean adopting your organization’s existing system and processes that you can adapt to fit the needs of the security team. In some instances, you might need to start from scratch—in that case I would recommend going back to basic, first principleswhich can then be scaled up to integrate with a future ERM system.\nLearn to speak risk.\nRisk provides organizations with a common language and mindset that can be applied across departments and functions to help with discussions and decision making. Even within the security function itself, having cyber, information, and physical security teams use a common language will make life easier for the CSO. “Speaking risk” can be more complicated than it might first appear, because terms can be applied differently and there are some complex influences that affect how we perceive risks.\nInitially, there will be a need for regular clarification on how terms are being used until the correct usage becomes commonplace. Adapting existing materials to suit the new lexicon will also take time, but the ERM system should define the key terms and concepts and these should be adopted as early in the ESRM process as possible.\n**Become objectives-led, rather than assets-focused. **\nUsing a risk vocabulary doesn’t just help with discussions: it also helps change mind-sets and perspectives. If something akin to the ISO definition—that risk is “the effect of uncertainty on objectives”—is used, the focus on objectives should become second nature, which has multiple benefits:\nIt allows individuals and teams to practice what the U.S. military calls disciplined initiative: leaders at all levels understand the commander’s (in this case the organization’s) overall intent and can shape their activities to support that without step-by-step direction. Being objectives-led moves from a reactive to a proactive mindset. Instead of thinking, “x has happened, so we need to do y,” organizations can consider “what effect could x have on our objectives?” and act accordingly. Security can better support the organization when mitigation measures and contingency plans are developed with the organization’s top-level objective in mind. This is best summed up by something an embassy regional security officer said while discussing security in a higher-risk country: “The best way to keep everyone safe here is to keep them inside [the embassy] but that’s not my job. My job is to help them get out there and do their jobs as safely as possible.” Becoming objectives-led is not only applicable in day-to-day “peacetime.” It is extremely important during the response to an event where a proactive, objectives-led stance will significantly improve the organization’s chance of survival.\n**Accept uncertainty and avoid over-specification. **\nWe are awash with data, email alerts, and warnings that swamp us with information. That can quickly lead to analysis paralysis: if we are presented with every possible permutation, possibility, and outcome for a situation, how can we effectively decide what to do next? From an ESRM perspective, avoiding this paralysis requires two things.\nFirst, the system should accept uncertainty and avoid trying to become too specific. Ultimately, risk management is a decision-making tool that helps put risks into a comparative order, but it doesn’t measure risk per se.\nTrying to measure risk to one or two decimal places is extremely difficult in all but the most well-documented, highly regular, technical systems. If you think about it, an asset assessment that gives you a loss expressed down to single dollars should be taking pocket change into account. However, day-to-day security management has neither that kind of stability nor the data, and there are simply too many variables for that kind of accuracy.\nThe ESRM system should work in broader strokes than the CSO might initially be comfortable with, but that will help remove some of the uncertainty and simplify the assessment and reporting process while still producing useable results.\nSecondly, information overload is not just something we can experience, it is also something to which we can contribute. Security should avoid swamping the overall ERM system with too much data. Too much information from each department will overwhelm the ERM system and cause paralysis at the organizational level.\nThe risk management system should specify where a departmental risk is severe enough to become an organizational risk and needs elevating, and this should be mirrored in the ESRM system. As previously mentioned, using broad strokes will also help get the point across as to which risks are a priority without having to overwhelm the senior leadership with every possible security concern.\nIn both cases, technology can make things more efficient. However, if care isn’t taken when designing a technical solution, managing the risk management system can become a major task in it’s own right. As mentioned earlier, security managers are not looking for more work to fill their time, so whatever systems are used must be robust, simple, and effective. Even with IT, KISS is still important.\nSummary\nESRM is a welcome initiative that will embed security management more thoroughly into organizations, add much-needed objectivity to decision making, and improve resilience. However, a tendency towards making ESRM too specialized, or trying to have the CSO lead too much of the overall risk activity, will likely be counterproductive.\nHowever, taking a KISS approach will help achieve the overall aim of integrating security into the broader ERM framework while also avoiding these pitfalls. Even within the security function itself, a risk-led approach will provide much-needed coordination between security functions because it gives CSOs and their teams a common language.\nAlthough a highly complex, granular system may seem attractive, taking a KISS approach is going to be more straightforward to implement when CSOs and their teams are already working close to capacity. Once the basic ESRM system is in place, the tinkering can begin.\nWhatever specific approach is taken, adhering to the four principles outlined above—use a standard approach, start speaking risk, become objectives-led, and accept uncertainty – will help implement an ESRM system that allows the organization to better understand security risks, integrate these into the wider ERM program, and ensure that the security team takes a risk-led approach.\nDownload a worksheet to help you plan your ESRM system here This article was published as “Less is More: A KISS Approach to ESRM” in ASIS Security Management Magazine in September 2017 and is (C) ASIS. It appears here with permission.\nUse this link to see the magazine version and other ESRM articles.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/09/12/a-kiss-approach-to-enterprise-security-risk-management/","summary":"\u003cp\u003eEnterprise security risk management (ESRM) has been a topic of increasing interest for security managers over the past few years.  ASIS International has identified it as a strategic focus. However, after a review of the literature, beginning with the \u003ca href=\"https://cso.asisonline.org/esrm/Documents/CSORT_ESRM_whitepaper_%20pt%201.pdf\"\u003e2010 CSO roundtable paper on ESRM\u003c/a\u003e, two issues are raised that could make ESRM implementation difficult.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe initial papers on ESRM appeared to encourage security to fill the gap left by traditional enterprise risk management (ERM) systems, which often focused on financial and market risk exclusively. Although an effective ERM system should incorporate all risks, having security fill these gaps via the ESRM system would quickly overwhelm the chief security officer (CSO).\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A KISS Approach to Enterprise Security Risk Management"},{"content":"Completion of the assessment and development of risk mitigation strategies help the organization understand their risks and what it can do to bring these risks within the levels of its risk tolerance and appetite. The elements that ensure that these risks stay within the permissible levels are risk governance and system controls.\n*Controls are what help keep the system in equilibrium or prompt a reaction where things begin to deviate from ‘normal’. Governance provides oversight to ensure that the risk management system is operating properly and that risks are being identified, elevated and managed at the appropriate levels. *\nThis article will look at the objectives and key activities for an organization’s governance function along with what the governance structure and routines could look like.\nThe Role of Governance Governance fulfills two main functions. Its primary function is to ensure that the organization’s understanding of its risk is as accurate, objective and as widely understood as possible. This focuses on the quality and application of the risk management system. However, governance also functions as an oversight mechanism to ensure that the risk management system is being operated and maintained properly. This second activity can also be thought of as a compliance or audit function.\nGovernance should have a semi-autonomous structure running parallel to the organization’s normal management structure up to and including the Board or senior oversight body. This governance hierarchy should include representatives from multiple disciplines and departments so that all risks are addressed and understood.\nThis allows a better understanding of risks and their implication. It avoids the potential for a single department that owns the risk function to focus on – or bury – their own risks. This parallel, streamlined structure will help move risk information through the system more effectively, elevating the risks to the appropriate level and allocating appropriate ownership for risk mitigation.\nMembers of the risk governance structure do not have to be risk subject matter experts (SMEs) nor risk owners although there is likely to be good representation of both groups in any risk forum. However, everyone involved in risk governance should be ‘risk aware’ to allow them to participate in the process and some non-expert voices should be encouraged to bring different perspectives into the conversation and to challenge assumptions. The most senior risk committee will be comprised of senior executives and board members because this is the only level of management that can tackle the organization’s most severe risks.\nGovernance should be supported by internal and external auditors who will ensure that the details provided in risk reports are accurate and supported by appropriate evidence. Auditors will also conduct compliance checks of the system itself to ensure that it is being operated and maintained properly. Auditors should not participate in the risk assessment or strategy development because it is important to maintain separation between the audit function and any advisory services.[1]\nGovernance Structure The exact risk governance structure will depend on the organization but a simple structure is shown below. This structure outlines the teams that would oversee risk at the different levels of an organization with a three-tier structure.\nTwo terms are used here to differentiate between the working groups that meet at the operational level and the risk committees that convene at the organizational or regional / departmental level. The general activities of these groups will be very similar but the severity and complexity of the risks will be different. These two terms are used to help differentiate between these groups and to avoid organizations having dozens of risk committees which could become confusing.\nExample of a risk governance structure.\nThe exact structure will depend on the organization but some considerations to keep in mind when designing the structure are:\nTry to mirror the structure of the organization as much as possible to utilize overlaps. Other than the Executive Risk Committee (ERC), the risk committees and working groups should be primarily staffed by the relevant regional, local or team managers.[2] The ERC should have a mix of executives and non-executive directors. Try to have both regional and functional risk teams. This ensures 1) that a series of functional risks in separate regions aren’t overlooked and, 2) that interlinked or associated regional risks can be linked together. This might seem like a duplication of effort but, if the risk manager has integrated the risk meeting schedules into existing meetings,[3] very little additional work is required as regional and functional teams will already hold regular meetings. A single set of regional OR functional meetings will lead to ‘stove-piping’ where the only time the full risk environment is considered is at the ERC level. This will overload the ERC and means that lower-level risks are not addressed in a timely manner. Ensure that internal and external audit is linked into the system. In most cases, internal audit will focus on the lower levels of the organization and external audit will focus on the top-level. Often, external audit is a mandatory requirement for organizational risk reporting and this will be its primary focus.[4] Some ‘spot checks’ by external auditors at lower levels will help with compliance, quality and accuracy. This audit function is key to ensuring that risks are not being underplayed or overstated and a key audit function is to ensure that the evaluation of the risks is accurate, evidence-based and that standards are being applied consistently. Governance Activities The main activities conducted at each level of the risk governance structure are as follows.\nReview risk reporting. The risk committees and working groups will be the primary users of risk registers and reports. They should review these materials to ensure that risks are presented clearly and that the ratings used are consistent with the organization’s risk criteria. Reviews should ensure that risk evaluations are supported by evidence and that ratings are being applied consistently. Elevate and assign risks. Risks that exceed the mandate for that particular group should be elevated upwards for consideration and action. This also applies to aggregated risks where individual risks do not exceed a threshold but where a combination of smaller risks create a more severe situation. The appropriate working group or committee will allocate or confirm the owner for risks that falls within their remit. Approve risk mitigation strategies. The working group or committee will review and approve the appropriate strategy to address each risk within their portfolio. When necessary, the working group or committee can solicit expert advice or additional input to help with the decision-making. Track risk mitigation progress. Once mitigation strategies are in place, the working group or committee should receive regular updates to ensure that progress is being made on mitigation activities. If necessary, the risk committee or working group will assist when a program needs additional assistance to achieve its goal. Program oversight and audit. The risk committees and working groups have an internal audit responsibility to ensure that the risk management program is being complied with and managed properly. Often, shortfalls in the system quickly become apparent to the governance teams as out of date risk registers or poor reporting indicate that the system is not being followed. The risk committees and working groups will also be responsible for commissioning and reviewing the work of any internal or external audit team. Determine risk appetite and tolerance (executive committee only). The ERC or equivalent is responsible for setting the organization’s risk tolerance and appetite. Wide consultation across the organization, including Board members, should be conducted to develop a realistic and representative set of guidelines for both risk appetite and risk tolerance. Once agreed on, it is important that these parameters are complied with and not exceeded which is both an oversight and audit function. Exceeding these parameters can be a particular challenge where a significant upside risk is being considered as this can lead organizations to overlook the associated downside risks. Transparency, supporting evidence and open risk discussions can help overcome this tendency. Risk Governance Schedule The exact schedule for governance activities is largely dictated by reporting schedules. For example, key risks are normally included in an organization’s annual report. For example, if this report must be completed by February, that becomes the deadline that all other risk reporting activities must meet. Similarly, external reporting requirements can impose deadlines so quarterly filings for a regulator must also be incorporated into the risk governance and reporting schedule. A sample schedule is shown below to illustrate how risk governance activities at each level can feed into each other.\nExample of a risk governance schedule\nAgain, the exact activities and routine of the various committees and groups will depend on the organization. This illustrates the kind of monthly, quarterly and annual risk activities that might need to be scheduled. It also shows how sequencing is important.\n*For example, in order to allow the ERC to conduct their quarterly meeting in the last week of each quarter, the regional or functional committees would have to meet two weeks earlier to allow them to complete their work and to report to the ERC. In turn, the risk working groups would have to complete their work an additional two weeks earlier meaning that they would have to complete their quarterly reporting at the end of the previous month. Similarly, preparation for the annual report will begin weeks ahead of the ERC’s schedule meeting. *\nImportantly, this doesn’t mean that these periods are totally dominated by risk management activities. The ‘little and often’ approach promoted in the integration article, should ensure that the risk register and associated materials are maintained throughout the year. Therefore, although there is an increased amount of risk activity around the quarterly and annual reporting deadlines, it shouldn’t overshadow other activities.\nSummary Risk governance provides oversight of the organization’s risk management system from a quality control and compliance perspective. This ensures that the organization understands its risks properly and that these are being addressed at the appropriate level. Governance is the key to ensuring that findings of the risk assessment are put into practice.\nThe governance function also oversees the compliance aspect of the system through its own observations and with the assistance of internal and external auditors. All governance activities should be conducted in an objective, semi- autonomous fashion to ensure that the organization remains fully aware of all of it’s risks, no matter how unpalatable these might be.\nGovernance is a critical function in the success of a risk management program. However, this does not mean that governance should become disruptive. With careful planning, an effective but light governance structure can be implemented, utilizing existing structures to provide risk committees and working groups at the appropriate levels with minimum disruption to the organization.\nSimilarly, scheduling the governance activities to align with the reporting deadlines, sensible scheduling and a little-and-often approach will ensure that risk management and risk governance are blended into day-to-day activities and cause minimum disruption while still remaining effective.\nFor more practical advice on risk governance, watch this interview with Nick Smart Notes\n[1] This separation is not simply good practice and is often mandated by legislation. A large part of the impetus behind the US 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act was due to conflicts of interest arising from firms providing both audit and advisory services.\n[2] See the article on integrating the risk management system for more information on overlapping with existing teams.\n[3] See the article on integrating the risk management system for more information on this.\n[4] The regulatory requirements for reporting should have been identified during the risk assessment process but these should be reviewed while developing the governance system. These will have particular importance when the governance schedule is being developed.\nSign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/08/23/risk-governance/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eCompletion of the assessment and development of risk mitigation strategies help the organization understand their risks and what it can do to bring these risks within the levels of its risk tolerance and appetite. The elements that ensure that these risks stay within the permissible levels are risk governance and system controls.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e*Controls are what help keep the system in equilibrium or prompt a reaction where things begin to deviate from ‘normal’.  Governance provides oversight to ensure that the risk management system is operating properly and that risks are being identified, elevated and managed at the appropriate levels. *\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk Governance"},{"content":"Effective risk management requires a series of behaviors and attitudes to exist within an organization that make risk considerations prominent in day-to-day operations. This mindset alone will go a long way to making an organization more risk-led but a functioning risk management system is also required to develop, support and guide that mindset.\nThe specific system adopted by an organization will be influenced by a number of factors: the industry may have a series of regulatory requirements; the country in which it is headquartered will have applicable laws to follow; there will be cultural aspects which will differ from organization to organization; and individual sectors and industries have preferred approaches to risk management. That makes it difficult to prescribe what a risk management system will look like and even a review of the existing standards and common references can still leave the reader without a clear template to follow.\nThis flexibility is vital if standards are to be applied to a wide range of organizations but the flip side is frustration when someone is looking for a template to follow. While this article won’t provide a hard and fast ‘perfect’ template for a risk management system, it does offer a basic framework that can be used as a start point when designing your risk management system, The risk manager can then review the appropriate regulations and standards for their sector and location and apply these where necessary.\nNote that designing your risk management system is part of the overall implementation process. Read both this article and the integration guide before you begin the actual design process.\nWhat do you mean by system? I have adapted the New Oxford American Dictionary definition to define a system as ‘set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole which is designed to provide a service, business function or specific output’. For simplicity, I consider systems as composed of three main elements:\nPeople – the people who manage and conduct activities within the system Paperwork – the policies, procedures and guidelines explaining how the system operates Purchases – any equipment, software and tools required to support the system Similar to a three-legged stool, each one of these elements must be present to make the system work although the emphasis on each ‘leg’ can change depending on the circumstances.\nThis is a simplified structure but it has always seemed to be an easy way to break down something complicated. Again, the overall objective of these materials is to simplify and demystify risk and risk management but if you have a more refined definition or structure, particularly anything that is in common use in your industry or organization, you should use that where appropriate.\nNeed a guide to help you implement a risk management system in your own firm? Take a look at my system build handbook\nA framework for a risk management system Developing a risk management system may seem daunting but remember, keep it simple! You are not expected to develop a multi-million dollar risk management program with dozens of staff and hundreds of documents overnight. More importantly, most organizations don’t need a big, ‘heavy’ system. What you do need is the right people with the right training, provided with the necessary guidance and procedures, supported by suitable tools and equipment.\nThe exact details of what each element looks like will depend upon 1) the organization’s culture and needs, 2) the sector or industry, 3) location and, 4) existing processes which might determine how the system is designed. However, the three Ps – people, procedures and purchases – can provide a sufficiently robust basis for your risk management system. These are explained in more detail below and placed into a framework that you can use to develop your own risk management system.\nNote that the article on implementing your risk management system outlines the steps you will take to determine the best ‘fit’ for your organization. Getting the right mix of components is a collaborative process so your original design will be adapted along the way to ensure maximum compatibility.)\nPeople People can be considered as having one of three relationships with the organization’s risks:\nOversight – this group does not become involved in the day-to-day management of risks but will be responsible for ensuring that the risk management system is operating effectively, that risks are being reported and addressed at the correct level and that the overall system is being conducted properly. This activity is managed by the organization’s risk governance teams (e.g. risk committees) and aided by internal and external auditors. (See the article on Governance and Oversight for more detail on this.) Manager – Risk managers are the risk SMEs who support risk owners as they identify, assess and develop strategies to address their risks. Risk managers are also responsible for ensuring that the appropriate reporting takes place and they are the link between the risk owners and the relevant risk committee. Risk managers are also responsible for the development, operation and maintenance of the risk management system. Owner – The risk owner is the individual who has direct responsibility for a particular risk or portfolio of risks. Risk owners are responsible for identifying, assessing and developing strategies to address the risks in their areas of responsibility. For lower level risks, the risk owner might simply report a risk and manage it at their level whereas other owners will be responsible for a large portfolio of associated risks. For example, the facilities manager might be responsible for a group of infrastructure risks. In many organizations, people – particularly senior staff – will have multiple risk roles which will switch, depending on the situation. For example, the CFO may be the risk champion for a company and she has initiated the risk management program making her the senior risk manager. She also chairs the company’s Group Risk Committee where she has an oversight role as Chief Risk Officer (CRO). On a day-to-day basis, she is also the owner of the organization’s financial and market risks.\nPaperwork This element is slightly wider than policies and procedures and encompasses all documentation that guides the risk management system. The exact document set that is developed will depend on the organization and the terms may differ slightly but the following documents are likely to form the core for the risk management system.\nA risk management policy\nThis is the top-level document that establishes the risk management program, identifies the program owner (e.g. the CRO) and the program manager (e.g the risk manager). The policy will also describe how the risk management system interacts with other programs within the organization and should identify where overlaps and dependencies exists. Normally, the policy will include a statement defining the organization’s approach to risk management and a general description of its risk appetite and tolerance which are then explained in more detail in subsequent documents. The policy will also define the legislation, standards or guidelines that are applicable along with an outline of the risk management structure within the organization. The risk management policy should provide direction but not detailed instructions and is effectively the charter for the risk management system.\nA set of risk management standards\nLegislation, industry standards and less formal guidelines explain the mechanics of the risk management system. These standards define terminology, set out minimum expectations and provide theoretical guidance for procedures and processes. Legislation is often nation-based so the organization may have to note where differences in legislation have an impact on the risk management system. Standards, particularly those from ISO and other international professional bodies, can be applied globally so it is recommended that you use a global standard as the basis for your system and then integrate any specific local legislation that applies. Where no standard legislation exists, the organization can use internally-developed or third-party guidelines to explain how elements of the risk management system are to be applied.\nSome common standards and references are listed below as these will crop up in ‘risk’ conversations from time to time. Each has its own strength and weaknesses and you should use the material most appropriate for your organization.\nISO 3001 ‘Risk Management Principles and Guidelines The Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO) Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework A Risk Management Standard – IRM/Alarm/AIRMIC 2002 ISO/IEC 31010:2009 – Risk Management – Risk Assessment Techniques Industry-specific references could include regulations such as the US Sarbanes-Oxley financial legislation 2002 or even the 1981 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea which controls pollution at sea.\nNote that Riskademy materials are designed to integrate with some of these systems so once you are comfortable with the basic concepts explained in the Riskademy materials, take a look at some of these standards. I wouldn’t recommend jumping into any of these standards right away – even after more than 15 years in the field, I still find some of these documents unnecessarily complicated (which is why I started Riskademy to be honest).\nA risk management procedure The risk management procedure will explain how the system is managed in detail. It should cover the following areas:\nThe risk management hierarchy Roles and responsibilities Risk appetite and risk tolerance statement and assessment process The risk assessment process Risk categories and escalation thresholds The risk reporting process Strategies for addressing risk Risk monitoring and controls System maintenance Tools and templates (see below) The document should be as widely applicable as possible meaning that minimum adaptation is required in the majority of cases. Annexes or local addenda can then be developed to address any requirements specified in local legislation or to meet specific local conditions. This not only helps with standardization but significantly eases the document management workload.\nTemplates\nThe standard and procedure should provide the following templates to facilitate the operation of the risk management system.\nRisk assessment template Risk register template Risk strategy development template Risk reporting template Risk workshop guides Meeting agenda and minute templates Additional templates can be added to make using the system easier and to meet the organization’s specific requirements.\nPurchases This covers all the equipment, hardware and software solely for the risk management system but does not include tools used by risk owners to manage their individual risks. (Otherwise this could extend into fire and gas alarms used for facilities monitoring.) Unlike safety and security systems, pure risk management systems require relatively little in the way of equipment so the tools required are more likely to be software based. Often, these are risk management platforms that that speed up and simplify the data management aspect of the risk assessment and reporting activities but this could include subscriptions to market intelligence reports. Training, educational materials and instruction could also be classed as a purchase.\nPutting this into Practice – Keep it Simple All of this might seem overwhelming but a risk management system doesn’t need to be complicated or expensive. Keep things simple and begin with a basic system that incorporates key elements above.\nOnce the basic system is integrated into your organization, you can build on this foundation as specific needs and requirements become more apparent.\nFor an example of what a simple system might look like to start with, let’s see how Bob approached this.\nAfter the success of the risk assessment, Bob was tasked with developing a risk management system for XYZ Co. When he started planning, he knew that Xavier, the CEO, would want a robust system but one with a light touch. That was how everything was done in XYZ Co. ‘Keep it simple’, Bob thought to himself. He has also looked at the Riskademy article on integrating your risk management system and has done some of the preparatory work and consultation recommended there in preparation for designing the system.\nFrom a staffing perspective, no additional staff would be hired for this so it would have to be people’s secondary responsibility. Bob and the HSE supervisor in Janwick would be the main risk managers for XYZ Co. As the main driver of the initiative, the CEO would be the risk champion.\nBob has been busy reading up on risk management and has also taken a look at the ISO 31000 standard. He thought this might be a bit heavy to start with but he has ISO 31000 in mind as the standard that he wants to link all the procedures back to eventually. For now, he is starting with the framework he has found online at Riskademy.\nThe budget for ‘fancy gadgets’ as Xavier put it, is limited but the CEO did agree that some formal training might be necessary and there will be funding for this. Bob’s new enthusiasm for risk management has made him investigate professional qualifications but that’s not something for this year. He also wants to look at simple IT platforms that would help with the risk assessment process as knows he will have to make this as easy as possible if he wants people to keep the risk register up to date. Again, he has put that aside as something for next year.\nWith all of this in mind, Bob sketches out a simple mind-map of the system.\nThis might look like a quick scribble but your initial outline of the risk management system doesn’t need to be much more than this.\nKeep things simple and begin with the three P’s Use the considerations in this article Think about what each of these elements looks like in your organization, your industry and the locations where you operate You will have the bare bones of a risk management system before you know it.\nWhen you compare this to a formal system, such as ISO 31000 or the COSO framework, it might not look as though there is much overlap. However, the core elements of formal systems are all represented here. All we have done is boil things down to the key components and wrote the information in a straightforward, accessible manner.\nWant more detail on how to put this into practice? Check out my system build handbook\nSummary The success of a risk management program depends upon the organization’s mindset. In order to be effective, there also needs to be a system to support this. This could be a major program and some of you may become – or are already – managers of significant departments, sizable teams and enviable budgets. This can just as easily be a modest program, run by an individual and woven into the organization’s day-to-day activities.\nYour risk management system will have to be something that works for your organization and these differ from sector to sector, location to location. However, the the basic components will remain the same. An effective mix of people, paperwork and purchases will ensure that you have the right people, with the right skills, supported by clear guidance, armed with the proper tools. All of these combined will give you an effective risk management system and a platform for a risk-led organization.\nAs a reminder, this article is closely linked to the system integration article so make sure you read that before you start on your system design.\nSign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/08/17/a-framework-for-a-risk-management-system/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eEffective risk management requires a series of behaviors and attitudes to exist within an organization that make risk considerations prominent in day-to-day operations. This mindset alone will go a long way to making an organization more risk-led but a functioning risk management system is also required to develop, support and guide that mindset.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThe specific system adopted by an organization will be influenced by a number of factors: the industry may have a series of regulatory requirements; the country in which it is headquartered will have applicable laws to follow; there will be cultural aspects which will differ from organization to organization; and individual sectors and industries have preferred approaches to risk management. That makes it difficult to prescribe what a risk management system will look like and even a review of the existing standards and common references can still leave the reader without a clear template to follow.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Framework for a Risk Management System"},{"content":"*Integrating a risk management system into your department or organization will be a major endeavor and while there are significant benefits to making this change, the degree of effort required should not be underestimated. Moreover, the overall workload of the organization and other major initiatives that might also be underway are major considerations when planning ERM implementation. This article will refer to ERM systems but the same principles will apply if the implementation is for a less expansive risk management system. Importantly, as a supporting function and not an operational activity, risk management must be shaped to fit the organization. It should not try to shape the organization to fit it. Implementing a risk management system requires thorough planning, a careful combination of change and project management and a high degree of cultural sensitivity. *\nA suggested approach for planning ERM implementation is laid out below. It outlines the main considerations and key elements that should appear in the eventual project plan.\nNote: this is not meant to be a primer on change management or project management, although generally-accepted principles from each of these disciplines are reflected in this article. Where possible, users should seek guidance from experts within their organization to ensure that any project and change of this scale adheres to the organization’s applicable processes.\nA Structure for Change A well-established model for change management is Dr John Kotter’s eight-step model for change. This article uses this as a loose framework to address the challenges and consideration surrounding ERM implementation. Some adaptations have been made to the eight-step model in order to make it more applicable to ERM. The practical project management elements required for success have also been added to assist with planning.\nEight Steps for Change Management (Adapted from Kotter)\n1 – Establish the need and develop urgency\n2 – Identify the champion and risk experts\n3 – Develop a vision and strategy\n4 – Communicate the vision, purpose, and value to generate organizational buy-in\n5 – Incentivize and empower action\n6 – Generate short-term wins\n7 – Build and maintain momentum\n8 – Embed the system in the organization’s culture\nThis eight step framework should allow the risk management champion to design a robust plan for implementation of the system and one that will align with more formal change and project management processes. Again, where the organization has recognized processes for change and project management, these should be used instead but some of the key considerations will remain the same.\nImplementing the ERM System 1 – Establish the need and develop urgency\nAs a risk aficionado, the benefits of a comprehensive risk management system will be obvious to the risk manager but will not be as clear to the rest of the organization. The term ‘risk manager’ is used throughout this article to identify the person driving the risk initiative in the organization. Moreover, implementing any new system costs time and money and robs the organization of a great deal of management focus. Therefore, a clear need for adopting or changing the risk management system is required because the desire of the risk manager alone will not be enough.\nTo drive this change effectively, a combination of a need and urgency is required. To identify the need, begin with an assessment or gap analysis of the current risk management arrangements in the organization. This will determine what is already in place, if there is a regulatory or legal requirement for a system and will identify any metrics that will support the case for implementing a formal risk management system.\nThe gap analysis and the associated metrics will help establish the need for a risk management system but there also needs to be a sense of urgency. A legal or regulatory gap presents a real urgency as the consequences of non-compliance could be severe. However, the benefits of improved processes, increased efficiency and reduced losses should also make compelling arguments for implementing the risk management system as soon as possible.\nEven with a degree of urgency, it is worth noting that it might not always be the right time for an organization to take on this size of project. A very small business may not have the resources. A larger organization, that is already mid-way through a major project, might not have the capacity to tackle another big initiative. Remember, a bungled attempt to launch an ERM system will deter people from any future risk management activities. Ensure that the timing and conditions are right to give yourself the greatest chance of success.\nAlthough the organization-wide announcement of the plan takes place later in the process (see step 4), buy-in from senior-management and key influencers will be required at this stage. These key decision-makers and influencers need to be presented with a strong argument for this project, (highlighting the need and urgency) so ensure that time is spent developing the business case for the implementation.\nFrom a project perspective, the gap analysis and needs assessment will help identify the major tasks and rough timelines associated with the project. This will form the basis of a bare-bones project plan that can help show senior managers what the project timeline and workload might look like. This top-level project plan should also show how the ERM implementation project is scheduled around other major organizational activities to avoid conflict and scheduling overload.\nStep 2 – Identify the champion and risk experts\nAgain, an enthusiastic risk manager alone is not enough to make this kind of change. A support network is required. Ideally, a senior executive or Board member will be the ‘risk champion’ leading this initiative. They can lend the necessary heft to the project and help hold the organization accountable once the project is underway.\nAdditionally, a network of ‘risk enthusiasts’ are required in each region, division or function to act as the local champions and risk subject matter experts (SME). In addition to selecting SMEs for their knowledge and abilities, it is also important to ensure that they have enough influence to be able to drive the project forward within their own area of responsibility.\nIn addition to championing the initiative, these individuals will form the core of the risk management project team. The risk management champion will be the project sponsor at the organizational level and the risk manager will become the project manager, responsible for the delivery of the risk management project.\n3 – Develop a vision and strategy\nA vision has to be something more inspirational than ‘implementing an effective and robust risk management system at all levels of XYZ Co’. This is an acceptable ‘what’ statement but people also need to understand why something is being done before an idea can be truly effective. The vision should explain why the risk management system is important, stressing the benefits, savings or values that are being supported by the system. A clearly-stated and well-understood vision will be beneficial when it comes to implementation, similar to being objectives-led in an operational sense.\nA vision statement that explains the overall intent or objective, why it is necessary and the primary deliverable (returning to the what) is required. For example, the following statement ties the risk management system into operational improvement, which in turn supports the organization’s strategic goal:\n*‘XYZ Co strives to be the leading widget manufacturer for all deep-sea oils and gas operations worldwide (the supported objective). In order to do this, we require the highest standards of operational efficiency and safety (why the change is necessary) which we will support through the implementation of a robust risk management system by the end of FY 2018 (the primary deliverable).’ *\nThis vision statement should be converted into a strategy (the ‘how’) outlining the broad strokes of how this will be achieved. This strategy can then be coupled with the details that were captured in stages one and two to produce a more detailed project plan.\nA high degree of cultural sensitivity is key to success and the culture of the organization should be kept in mind during every stage of the process.\nDuring strategy development, the organization’s structure and culture will shape the approach to implementation. For example, does the organization respond better to top-down or bottom-up initiatives? Which department or manager’s by-in will make or break an idea? Is the organization small and nimble or large and resistant to change? These are all key considerations when developing the implementation strategy. This will help the risk management champion and manager determine how to best communicate the vision.\n4 – Communicate the vision to generate organizational buy-in\nCulture is very important when the vision is being communicated to the wider organization. ‘Change is hard’ is something we often hear and in most cases, it’s also true. Enthusiasm or buy-in will have to be generated in the face of organizational resistance, pressing timelines, competing priorities and often a reluctance to make any change at all. All of this resistance is before any actual change is being made.\nUnderstanding the organization’s culture is key to ‘selling’ the vision to the organization. The risk champion and the other team members should have collaborated and received feedback throughout steps one to three. Therefore, the vision and strategy being proposed should be largely welcomed throughout the organization. However, communicating the vision at this stage is not simply a one-way conversation. It is a two-way consultation.\nDuring the communication activity, in addition to ‘selling’ the change, the project team should also be taking note of feedback and identifying areas where the proposed system and plan for implementation receives push-back. Although not all criticisms requires changes to the strategy or plan, valid feedback will help the project team refine the implementation plan and the risk management system itself. Any time invested improving the implementation plan at this stage will pay dividends later on and will increase the chance of overall success.\nExactly how buy-in can be achieved will be specific to the organization but some considerations are:\nIdentify the influencers and approach them first. Remember, an influencer might not always be a senior manager but could be an experienced worker, someone of standing in the community outside work or a just a charismatic employee. Ideally, you would also want some of these influences to be risk champions but they have to be bought into the idea of a risk management system in the first place. Use a mix of top-down and bottom-up initiatives, adjusting the balance and sequencing the announcements to suit your organization. Acknowledge the pain involved in making significant changes but stress that this is temporary. Emphasize that a faster implementation is preferable, and stress the long-term benefits of making the change to justify the short-term disruption. Make compelling arguments. The needs and gap analysis will have identified the organizational pain points that are going to be addressed by the risk management system. Show how the proposed system addresses these with a series of empirical (‘we can save x hundred man-hours in reporting’) and emotional (‘you no longer have to allocate all of February to the risk assessment’) arguments that can be used in different circumstances. Be honest. Don’t paint an overly rosy picture of the implementation and don’t oversell what the risk management system will do. This is a critical stage in the success of the risk management system: without this buy-in, you can still implement a risk management system, but it will have been forced on the organization. This creates a superficial system that isn’t embedded in the organization’s culture and one that will have limited benefit.\n5 – Incentivize and empower action\nAny kind of major change requires a cross-organizational effort. Embedding an ERM system is no different. A central team of SMEs – the risk management champions – are necessary to oversee and guide the process to ensure that the system is being implemented properly. However, this team cannot and should not be expected to do all the work themselves. In addition to the capacity issues, this doesn’t encourage wider ownership of the processes throughout the organization.\nWhile the risk management champions guide the process, managers at all levels should be tasked with implementation and feel empowered to make these changes. Moreover, these changes should be seen as part and parcel of the manager’s roles, not an additional ‘nice to have’ activity, relegated to last place in their list of priorities. This incentivizes managers to action, as progress on the risk management implementation is a measurable activity against which their progress will be judged.\nInvolving managers at all levels means ensuring that tasks and deliverables are clear but also that the resources are available to make these changes. This includes additional staffing (either from in-house resources or contractors), an allocated budget and, most importantly, an allocation to complete project tasks. Without allocated time, even the most committed manager will struggle to implement something as complex as an ERM system. To be most effective, this resource allocation should be driven by the risk management champion from the very top and built into the organization’s resource planning.\n6 – Generate short-term wins\nShort-terms wins help build momentum early on and show that the change is manageable and beneficial. However, rather than planning achievements that amount to little more than window-dressing (e.g. making some terminology changes or issuing general policy documents), short-term wins should drive tangible benefits. This could be as simple as improving or eliminating a process which saves users time. Short-term wins should also reflect the vision of the project so the organization can see why the change is being made. T\nThese short-term wins also help incentivize managers as they are able to tackle some easier tasks up front. In turn, this helps them make progress and develop momentum with their own department or team.\nIt is important to not be too cynical when identifying quick wins as the organization will quickly see through any measure that isn’t a demonstrable improvement. Ensure that quick wins create real value and benefit the organization. Be sure to publicize this progress so everyone can see the changes that are underway and the improvements that are being created. From a project management perspective, the project plan should schedule some easy wins up front.\n7 – Build and maintain momentum\nMomentum will begin with the quick wins noted in step 6 but it is important to maintain this progress. A project that has a burst of activity at the beginning and then stalls will struggle to get started again. To help maintain this momentum, the project plan should be ambitious but realistic. It must push the organization to implement the system in a meaningful time frame while also taking account of other activities.\nRegular deadlines and milestones that are enforced will help maintain progress and keep the project on track. However, even though hitting milestones early on is a great achievement, care should be taken to avoid a stop-start approach to the project which can also cause it to stall.\nTwo things can assist with developing and maintaining momentum; firstly taking a ‘little and often’ approach and secondly, becoming selectively lazy.\nThe little and often approach. In the same way that only going to the gym for the first two weeks of January doesn’t help your long-term fitness, short surges of project activity or overly short time frames are unlikely to work. Regular activities at a measured pace help develop the organizational habits and ‘muscle memory’ that are necessary to embed a system thoroughly. The project plan should include weekly and monthly activities to implement and embed the change across the organization. The project team will remain busy throughout the entire project period and there will be a great deal of behind-the-scenes activity. The wider organization is much more likely to adopt the new system if it is introduced at a measured pace. Secondly, be selectively lazy. This is a great way to develop efficiency but it does not suggest that risk managers should sit back and let everyone else do the work. It means that you should look for easy routes for implementation, including overlaps with other activities and processes that can be adapted for the risk management system. For example, if you need to establish an organization-wide series of risk forums, look for other groups that already meet regularly. You are more likely to get a team to add 20 minutes each week to their regular meeting for a risk review than you are to get them to add an extra, hour-long, risk-specific meeting to their schedule. This still achieves the aim of organization-wide risk forums but without the demands of a completely new structure and meeting schedule.look for other initiatives where there are shared requirements, even if the objectives might differ. This could be something like using an existing reporting application for risk reporting. This would cut back on procurement and maintenance costs needed for a separate risk management platform and reduces the time required to train employees in how to use the system. The owners of the original system might also be incentivized to share the system as their costs are then shared. Using systems and processes that are already in place has the added advantage of quickly building momentum as the risk management system will be pulled along by the organization’s natural rhythm. 8 – Embed the system in the organization’s culture\nEmbedding a system is not the same as imposing a system. An imposed system is something that can be jettisoned quickly and replaced, meaning that all the risk manager’s effort will have been for nothing. Embedding requires everything outlined above: a need and urgency, a clear vision, senior support, champions at all levels, top-down and bottom-up pressure, cultural alignment and a clear, sustained period of implementation.\nIf the risk management system is embedded successfully, a risk-led mindset will become ingrained in the organization and reflected in everything it does. An easy way to tell if a system is embedded or not is whether it still needs a group of champions to make it work. If the risk management champions simply act as SMEs and aren’t needed to push things along on a day-to-day basis, then you can say that the system is embedded in your organization.\nHowever, things do change and some maintenance is necessary to ensure that the organization doesn’t outgrow or deviate from the risk management system. The risk manager should conduct routine reviews of the system and any necessary maintenance to ensure that it continues to be fit for purpose.\nIt would be horrible to maintain an out of date, deeply embedded mindset that was no longer appropriate. In that situation, a new gap analysis and series of system adjustments would be necessary but this is less likely if the risk manager remains objective and responsive to changes. When a system is no longer fit for purpose, it must be adapted and changed as soon as possible to avoid the organization exposing itself to unnecessary risk.\nSummary Risk management is a strategic, decision-making tool, fed by input from all levels of the organization. If conducted correctly, it will significantly enhance the organization’s operations and build resilience. However, most organizations are already lean and workers at all levels will have fully-stocked schedules just to manage their existing responsibilities. Adding extra processes in these circumstances will result in groans from across the workforce. Integrating a risk management system must be done with care in order to be effective.\nA carefully planned, staged approach following the eight steps above can be used to implement an ERM system in most organizations. This will allow the organization to adapt to the new activities at a manageable pace while also ensuring that the risk management system is appropriate and fit for purpose. This will result in a fully-embedded risk management system that has been tailored to meet the organization’s specific needs allowing it to be truly risk-led.\nIf you enjoyed this, please sign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/08/16/integrating-a-risk-management-system-into-your-organization/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*Integrating a risk management system into your department or organization will be a major endeavor and while there are significant benefits to making this change, the degree of effort required should not be underestimated. Moreover, the overall workload of the organization and other major initiatives that might also be underway are major considerations when planning ERM implementation. This article will refer to ERM systems but the same principles will apply if the implementation is for a less expansive risk management system. Importantly, as a supporting function and not an operational activity, risk management must be shaped to fit the organization.  It should not try to shape the organization to fit it.  Implementing a risk management system requires thorough planning, a careful combination of change and project management and a high degree of cultural sensitivity.  *\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Integrating a Risk Management System into Your Organization"},{"content":"Once an organization’s risks are understood, it is important that appropriate action is taken to address these risks to ensure that the organization’s objectives are protected or enhanced. Some risks are severe enough to require immediate action. Others can be dealt with in the short term whereas some risks require longer-term attention over months or even years. This essay explores the key ideas and terms associated with addressing risks and outlines the steps to take to ensure that the appropriate action is taken once a risk is identified concentrating on five main options: avoid, tolerate, treat, transfer and terminate.\n*Note this article was updated on Aug 22, 2017 to include additional notes on risk controls. *\nAddressing your risks The first phase of the risk management system is designed to ensure that we understand the risks the organization faces. In the second, we address these risks to ensure that appropriate action is taken to minimize downside risks and exploit any upside risks. Addressing your risks can be broken into both short-term and long-term objectives.\n(Note that the example timeframes shown are illustrative and can be adjusted to suit the organization.).\nShort term (e.g. by the end of the next quarter)\nDeal with any emerging issues or crises Ensure that all legal and regulatory requirements are met Ensure downside risks do not exceed the organization’s risk tolerance Exploit immediate opportunities Mid to long-term (e.g. 6 to 24 months)\nEnsure downside risks do not exceed the organization’s risk appetite Implement steps to make all risks are as low as reasonably possible Optimize upside risks A couple of technical terms have crept in already so let’s define these before we go any further.\nRisk appetite is the amount of risk an organization is comfortable with on a day-to-day basis or the amount of upside risk that it wants to pursue. Risk tolerance is the amount of risk an organization can bear for a short period of time. For organizations with a lower risk appetite, the gap between appetite and tolerance is likely to be relatively narrow. Organizations with a higher risk appetite maybe willing to tolerate very high levels of risk for short periods of time. As low as reasonably possible (ALARP) defines a level after which it would be too expensive or disruptive to reduce the risk any further. In other words, from a cost/benefit perspective, the cost of any additional risk mitigation measures don’t justify the benefits. The primary activity in the address phase is determining the appropriate action to take for each risk and subsequently develop action plans to address these. Risk action plans will include a series of short-term and longer-term actions with the overall aim of protecting or supporting the organization’s objectives\nYou will see two actions in the short-term objectives that might not immediately seem to fit within risk management: addressing any legal requirements and responding to any issues or crises. Although these two activities may not fall within the risk manager’s responsibilities, a thorough risk assessment may identify a slow-moving or emerging issue that could interrupt or affect the organization’s objectives. Similarly, the assessment may also uncover instances where laws or regulations are not being complied with. Both situations would negatively impact the organization’s objectives and require immediate action so it is important to highlight these for action if discovered.\nOptions for addressing risks The risk assessment process has helped us identify, assess and prioritize risks which gives us an order in which these should be addressed. However, before we do that, we need to understand what options are available to help us address these risks. There are several different techniques for addressing risk but many of these boil down to a variation of the 4Ts: tolerate, treat, transfer and terminate. We will use a similar approach with the addition of one other option, avoid, and summarize this as A4T. Note that these terms do not define a strict set of actions and sometimes a combination of approaches is necessary.\nThese terms can be used to describe the general approach to addressing a risk in a clear, understandable way. Having an agreed set of terms makes the development of risk management plans more straightforward and ensures that everyone involved in these discussions understands the general strategy being proposed.\n*To help explore these topics, one of the risks from the XYZ Co risk assessmentis shown below. *\nThis example will be used throughout this article to illustrate how XYZ Co could address this risk.\nA4T in detail A4T gives us a basic set of options we can use to design strategies to address the risks. These options present different approaches to managing a risk and can be used individually or in combination, depending on the circumstances.\nAvoiding a situation is sometimes the only strategy available to address a particular risk, particularly where is the threat is something pervasive and completely outside the control of the organization. For example, coastal erosion or terrorism are both threats about which a company can do little and, no matter what additional measures are put in place, the resultant risks may remain too high to tolerate. Relocating a site or ending operations in the threatened area avoids the threat and negates the risk altogether. This may not be an option for mature operations and may be more appropriate in the early stages of a project but avoiding a risk altogether should not be discounted as a potential option.\nThe civil unrest in Janwick is ongoing and there is no real option to physically relocate the facility in the short-term. Janwick is critical to the organization’s overall business objectives so the XYZ Co senior leadership don’t see a way in which they can AVOID the risk at this stage.\nIf a risk falls below the organization’s risk appetite it should be something that the organization can tolerate, even if it is not ALARP. In the longer-term, reducing all risks to ALARP should be an objective but a risk that can be tolerated would not be a priority for action. A risk that exceeds the risk appetite but not the risk tolerance, could be accepted for a short period of time but this would still require treatment in the long term. Take care to ensure that in circumstances where an organization is tolerating higher-levels of risk, that it is not actually dealing with ‘live’ issues which require immediate attention.\nDuring the assessment, this risk was rated as HIGH and this is above the organization’s risk appetite so the risk cannot be TOLERATED in the long-term. In the short term, the risk will have to be tolerated but it is prioritized for action.\nAt some point, most risks require treatment. Treatment will focus on priority risks in the short-term but treatment plans to reduce all risks to ALARP should be part long-term risk planning. Risk treatment is the activity that probably takes up most time as determining the most effective way to treat a risk can require a significant amount of research and planning. As discussed, an organization can normally only influence its vulnerability to an event or the event’s impact so treatment plans would normally focus around manipulation of one of these elements.\nBob convenes a team to brainstorm ideas for treating the risk from civil unrest in Janwick and they produce the following options.\n(Note that this is a partial, illustrative list of options as an example, not a full treatment plan for XYZ Co in Janwick)\nTransferring or sharing risks is another common strategy either through insurance, by outsourcing activities or partnering with another organization. Each of these options offsets an organization’s share of the risk but these benefits come with additional challenges. Outsourcing and partnering require careful consideration to ensure new risks are not being created. For example, what precautions do you have in place to ensure that a subcontractor is not breaking the law when operating in your name? Do you have quality control in place to ensure that they are not using substandard materials? When you partner with another organization, you add the complexity of two management teams, two perspectives and potentially two different sets of objectives. So while you may have reduced the original risk by outsourcing or partnering, you may have created other risks in the process.\nAn action is identified to review any insurance that applies to operations in Janwick and to look at other options to transfer some of the risk via additional insurance. Although Xavier is opposed to selling off the Janwick facility, outsourcing this part of the operation is an option. There may be additional business efficiencies with this course of action and this is recorded as a longer-term option for consideration.\nThe final option might be to terminate an activity where risks cannot be reduced to an acceptable level. This is not the same as avoiding the risk where the activity continues under different, more acceptable circumstances. Terminate means that the activity must end completely. Prohibition of the use of DDT as a pesticide in the United States and the end of Arctic drilling by some oil and gas companies are examples where the high degree of risk led to the termination of an activity.\nThe XYZ Co feels that between the treatment and transfer options they have identified, they should be able to bring the risk in Janwick to an acceptable level so there is no need to consider TERMINATING the activity at this stage.\nSo we now have this toolkit of five options – avoid, tolerate, treat, transfer or terminate (A4T) – but how do we actually manage the process to address our risks?\nA process for addressing risks The overall process for addressing risks can be broken into six steps. This process ensures that actions are taken in the correct order and, most importantly, that the right stakeholders and decision-makers are included at the right stage of the process. Some of the elements here touch on risk governance which we will look at in more detail separately but it is important to note that oversight, high-level decision-making, audit and review are all important hallmarks of effective risk management.\nThese six steps are:\nReview the risk assessment and agree the priorities for action. Take immediate action on any legal / regulatory breaches and respond to any emerging issues or crises. At a minimum, all risks that exceed the organization’s risk tolerance must be addressed immediately.\nOutline potential courses of action for each risk in priority order. Use the five A4T options to outline potential courses of action to address the risk and highlight the key points of any treatment plan. Multiple options should be suggested where possible along with the associated cost / benefit analysis.\nConduct a peer review of the proposed strategies for each risk to assess the feasibility of the proposed courses of action and to identify any unforeseen consequences. The risk owner should incorporate peer-feedback into their courses of action.\nHave the risk owner or committee for each risk review the options and decide on the appropriate course of action for each risk. Ensure that these decisions are elevated to the appropriate level for consideration.\nGather the feedback from each risk owner or risk committee and consolidate feedback into a risk action plan. The plan will summarize the response to each risk using the A4T options and describe the general details of any proposed treatment strategy. Convert the risk action plan into a project plan by allocating responsibility and assigning a delivery date for each action.\nExecute the plan, reviewing progress regularly to ensure that strategies are mitigating or exploiting risks as intended.\nDepending on the organization, this whole process could last weeks or months and in some circumstances, executing the action plan could take years. The objective is still to address risks as quickly and effectively as possible but it is important to be aware of the time that may be necessary to shepherd this process through a busy organization. One important point to bear in mind is that the longer the period from risk assessment to executing the strategy, the greater the chance that the situation might develop and risks could change.\nPrioritizing risks and identifying courses of action Prioritize risks for action using the results of the risk assessment. Importance will be determined by the overall value for each risk which should also broadly align with the priorities\nOngoing incidents or issues\nRegulatory or legal breaches\nRisks exceeding risk tolerance\nRisks exceeding risk appetite\nIf these conditions are met, work through the risks in priority order with the objective of reducing each risk to ALARP.\nOnce an order to address the risks has been determined, the potential courses of action can be considered. The risk owner, along with the process owner if these are not the same, will review the risk and determine which of the A4T options might be applicable. They will then develop courses of action that would address each risk consulting with other stakeholders about these options.\nSimilar to the need for consultation during the risk assessment, there is a need for wide consultation when developing strategies. Without consultation and consideration, the actions taken to address a risk may result in additional problems or be impractical to implement so the owners of key risks and processes should be involved. This is not the same as the peer-review of the final set of strategy options but there will be some natural overlap between these two activities. Another benefit of wide consultation is that you might find mitigation measures that address a range of issues.\n*As an example, on one of my first projects, we were keen to implement an access control system to enhance site security at a gas plant. During discussions with the management team, it became apparent that the system would also assist HR who were struggling to account for people’s time on site which was complicating payroll. Moreover, the health and safety manager also liked the idea of using secondary access control to restrict entry to the more hazardous parts of the site. This meant that the access control system could help address the risks associated with unauthorized site access, avoid conflict with the labor ministry over payroll violations and reduce the impact of potential incidents in the production area. An additional benefit was that cost was now shared across three departments – HR felt that this system could even reduce losses that were occurring due to falsified timecards. This made the overall business case for an access control system much more robust and this was quickly approved. *\nThere are three additional points to consider when developing strategies.\nBe data driven. Present the key facts and figures to help compare and weigh the different options available. Include a comparison of the initial or ‘raw’ risk versus the estimated post-action residual risk. Include an outline of costs, resources and time required to help with cost / benefit analysis. Present the key information in a standard format. Specify the main approach using the A4T abbreviations and a short summary of the overall strategy. Remember, you are only trying to identify options at this stage so you don’t need a complete solution at this stage, just enough to guide the decision-maker(s). Refine the options but don’t over plan. The management of any organization is normally starved of time so presenting them with all potential options for each risk would be overwhelming. Present the most viable options but be careful not to streamline too much and don’t just present your own preferred option. This may seem like a lot of effort to only generate options rather than a detailed strategy and part of the process can definitely be time-consuming. However, thorough development of options and wide consultation at this stage makes it much more likely that the eventual strategy will be successful and this effort now will make it easier to implement in the future.\nPeer review and strategy agreement Once strategies have been identified, these can then be formally peer-reviewed by the organization’s key functions. The peer-review is not the forum for final decision-making but this is an opportunity to identify overlaps, dependencies or where a particular strategy may have unintended consequences. Feedback during peer review may require a strategy to be refined or objections may have to be noted for consideration by the final decision makers.\nThe final decision on appropriate strategy will be taken by the risk owner or a risk committee. Minor risks are normally addressed by the owner but organizations should also specify that more serious risks need to be elevated for more senior consideration. The forum for this is a risk committee and these usually exist at various levels within an organization up to board level for the most severe risks. The risk manager must be aware of where the ultimate decision for a risk lies and any applicable timetable as some committees may only meet at specific intervals. Operation of the risk committees will explored in more detail in the risk governance section.\nThe decision-maker(s) will use the strategy summaries and cost / benefit analyses to determine the most appropriate approach for each risk in the overall context of the business’s objectives. Remember, you are now moving from ‘pure’ risk management into business decision-making which brings additional factors into play. Once a decision is made, this must be recorded in the risk report or register so it is clear what approach is being taken along with details of when the decision was made and by whom.\nRisk action plans and addressing the risks Once the approach for each risk has been agreed, the outline strategy can be developed into a detailed action plan.\nThese action plans will be project plans in their own right and should specify the actions, owners and deadlines for each step required to put the agreed strategy into effect. The risk owner, not the risk manager, owns these individual action plans. The risk manager should have a top-level plan of their own to monitor progress for each risk action plan. This allows the risk manager to keep track of progress to ensure that the overall risk strategy is on track.\nWhile executing the action plan, the risk owner should monitor its effects to ensure that the strategy is effective. Even if the overall risk might not reduce immediately, the effects of the strategy should still indicate whether or not steps will be effective. For example, if a contributing factor to a risk was insufficient incident reporting, observed improvements to the reporting process indicate that the risk should be reduced.\nAs risk strategies advance or are completed, the revised situation can be incorporated into the next phase of reviews or assessments and the risks recalculated. Assuming that the strategy has been effective, that particular risk action can be considered closed and should be recorded as such in the risk register. When a strategy has not achieved its set objective, a revised strategy may be necessary.\nSummary As you address your risks, you move from the theoretical to the practical, translating the findings of the risk assessment into actionable steps that will help protect or enhance your organization’s objectives. The assessment provides the prioritization for action to ensure that the more severe risks are tackled first using one of the five A4T options: avoid, tolerate, transfer, treat or terminate. Utilizing the six-step process ensures that all actions are undertaken in the correct sequence, that strategies have input from around the business and that decisions are made at the appropriate level ensuring that the organization’s objectives are protected or enhanced.\n~Andrew\nA Short Note on Controls This note has been added as a footnote to this article which will be updated in due course.\nCompletion of the assessment and development of risk mitigation strategies helps the organization understand their risks and what it can do to bring these risks within the levels of its risk tolerance and appetite. The elements that ensure that these risks stay within the permissible levels are risk governance and system controls.\nGovernance is centralized but all managers will have some role to play in the governance system. Controls are exercised across all parts of the organization at all times. Controls are what help keeps the system in equilibrium or prompt a reaction where things begin to deviate from ‘normal’. Controls are going to be very specific to the organization, its operations and the risks it faces. Where it is possible to provide some specifics concerning other elements of the risk management process, there are too many variables to offer much more than some broad principles for risk controls.\nThat said, please don’t think that controls are less important. As a reminder, controls are what helps keep the system in equilibrium or prompt a reaction where things begin to deviate from ‘normal’ so it the risk controls that actually manage risks. The assessment, register and governance activities are processes to help achieve understanding and to manage the risk management system: controls manage the risks themselves.\nFor simplicity, controls can be broken down into two different categories: control ‘norms’ and risk-specific controls. Controls that are applied on a day-to-day basis in similar situations worldwide can be termed control norms. Fire suppression systems, IT passwords and quality control monitoring are all examples of control norms. These are so deeply embedded that the only time these would arise in a risk assessment context are where these are missing or inadequate.\nThe second set of controls are risk-specific controls. These are controls that will be identified and designed during risk mitigation planning. For example, in addition to the normal fire detection systems that most industrial facilities have, locations that use highly corrosive or dangerous chemicals may want specific sensors to detect which chemicals are involved in a blaze as this will determine the best fire-fighting strategy. This knowledge would avoid causing additional damage if, for instance, the fire was simply doused with water which subsequently washed the dangerous chemicals into public areas. We will have a mix of normal controls and risk-specific controls that can be applied to manage our risks.\nUnfortunately, controls are highly specific to an industry or function so, for simplicity, this article cannot advise on the appropriate controls to implement in different circumstances. However, we can use some of the existing concepts we have applied elsewhere to help develop a process for designing controls.\nFirst, we can consider which element of the risk the control is meant to affect – is it to influence the threat, vulnerability or impact? Secondly, we can introduce some simple objectives for the control summarized. Detect, deter, disrupt, delay and distribute are some objectives that are often applied when designing controls. Finally, we can categorize the control by assigning it to one of the 3Ps – people, paperwork or purchases – used to describe the risk management system.\nLet’s look at each of these in more detail.\nWe should specify where the control is being applied – towards the threat, vulnerability or impact? You can use the risk assessment itself to help determine where you might have the greatest effect of the best bang for your buck as you can use a version of the risk assessment to model the effects of different control. The flexibility provided by having three factors to work with is a major reason that Riskademy uses the three-factor approach to assessing risk.\nOnce you know which element you are trying to affect, you can consider the objective of the control. For example, is it meant to do detect, deter, disrupt, delay or distribute the event? Threats could be controlled [1] by a mix of detection and deterrence measures such as CCTV systems and guard patrols. Vulnerability can be enhanced by disruption or delay tactics. This could be an improved physical security to prevent an attack or more robust log-in processes for IT systems to lessen the chance of brute-force attacks.\nThreat and vulnerability are pre-event factors. However, sometimes events can still take place so impact controls can also be introduced. These could focus on delaying the effects, allowing more comprehensive response to be initiated, or trying to distribute the effects to lessen the impact.\nThe final elements of the control will be to determine how to best achieve the objective. Would a process control work best or does it need a people-centric solution? Maybe some equipment is required? Usually, there are a mix of elements in a control system which is where risk management overlaps with day-to-day operations. This brings the risk management system full circle and integrates the risk management process with daily activities. The closer this alignment is, the more effective the system will be.\nControls are the elements of the risk management system that will be most specific to the organization, its situation and risks. Moreover, controls are the measures that actually manage risks. These keep the system in equilibrium despite the constant pressures from inside and outside the organization that threaten to a system out of normal operation. Control norms are deeply embedded in most organizations and they provide a great deal of the control reared to keep a system in equilibrium.\nWhen additional risk-specific controls are required, a simple process considering 1) where the control is being applied, 2) the control’s objective and 3) the elements required to implement the control will help risk managers and owners design appropriate, risk-specific controls.\nFootnotes\n\n[1] Previous comments about threats being elements the organizations cannot normally reduce remain. Detect and deterrence measures will not diminish the capability and intent of a threat such as violent attacker but they will prompt that threat to perhaps go elsewhere or at least give the organization some warning of what might be about to happen.\nIf you enjoyed this, please sign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/04/28/wdymbaddress-risks/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2017/03/18/risk-assessment-process-how-to-conduct-a-risk-assessment/\"\u003eOnce an organization’s risks are understood\u003c/a\u003e, it is important that appropriate action is taken to address these risks to ensure that the organization’s objectives are protected or enhanced. Some risks are severe enough to require immediate action. Others can be dealt with in the short term whereas some risks require longer-term attention over months or even years. This essay explores the key ideas and terms associated with addressing risks and outlines the steps to take to ensure that the appropriate action is taken once a risk is identified concentrating on five main options: \u003cstrong\u003eavoid, tolerate, treat, transfer\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eterminate\u003c/strong\u003e.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"WDYMB…Address Risks?"},{"content":"Complicated, subtle factors affect how we perceive risk and these can be exacerbated by the way we receive risk information. We refer to the ways we think about and react to risks as risk perception, and the processes for discussing risk as risk communication. Even when people are in the same or very similar situations, they may perceive the risks very differently. Similarly, different people listening to the same risk information will react to it differently depending on several factors that affect their perspective. The overall result of this is “the general frustration experienced by both risk managers and affected parties in conveying and understanding risk information”.[i]\nIt is critical that risk managers are aware of these influences that affect how people respond to risk information. We need to understand where subjectivity exists when we are conducting an assessment. We also need to be aware of how we might trigger a reaction depending on the language we use during a discussion. This essay lays out some of the key risk perception and communication elements that every risk manager should be aware of, along with some suggestions as to how to mitigate them. These factors are not confined to the ‘understand’ phase of risk management but are influential at every stage in the understand / address / monitoring \u0026amp; reactprocess.\nBefore we get started, I need to issue a health warning of sorts. This essay gets into some fairly heavy subject matter and there is a lot of social-sciences and psychology jargon. This might seem unnecessary but these are very relevant concepts that I believe will really help the risk manager.\nMoreover, you will already have experienced and observed these behaviors. All I am doing is laying out the academic aspects. I am not suggesting that you need to memorize all of this and if you forget the jargon, that’s OK too. As long as you have an understanding of these influences and think about how these affect your risk activities, you will be more effective as a risk manager.\nHealth warning over…\nPaul Slovic has conducted some of the most thorough studies into the various factors that affect how we perceive and accept risk. He describes two ways in which we approach risk: risk as feeling and risk as analysis.\n*“Risk as feeling refers to our instinctive and intuitive reactions to danger. Risk as analysis brings logic, reasons, and scientific deliberation to bear on a risk assessment and decision making”.[ii] *\nThis is also reflected in what is described as System 1 thinking, which is fast and unconscious, differing from deliberative, slow System 2 thinking[iii]. Our instinctive reactions have been developed over generations and usually short-circuit our attempts at analytical decision-making. However, even our attempts at more logical thought are also subject to sub-conscious influences.\nThese influences can be categorized in two ways: heuristics and biases.\n• Heuristics are ways of doing things: processes that are ‘hard wired’ into our behavior. These behaviors have evolved over generations and are extremely difficult to overcome. Hearing someone shouting ‘fire’ or ‘snake’ triggers the fight or flight reaction. This is a built-in heuristic, developed over millennia of human evolution. Heuristics are common behaviors exhibited by most people.\n• Biases are factors that influence what we think about a particular situation. Unlike heuristics, which are generally shared, biases are highly individual and variable. These are sub-conscious influences driven by numerous factors, some shaped by the individual’s own experiences or situation and others which are more temporary. To add further complication, biases will change over time and individuals can be subject to multiple, potentially conflicting biases simultaneously.\nHeuristics are essentially processes that influence how we think, whereas biases affect what we think. Although we are focused on the understand phase at the moment, these same heuristics and biases will crop up in all stages of the risk management cycle.\nThere are many heuristics and biases that affect our perception and reaction to risk (Wikipedia lists over 100 cognitive biases) but we will concentrate on some of the most influential here. In summary, these are:\nThe availability heuristic – information that has been received most recently is most easily recalled and therefore has a significant influence on our thinking Anchoring – data provided immediately prior to a decision will influence the decision made Confirmation bias and hindsight bias – receiving confirmation of an idea reinforces an individual’s belief that it is sound, despite any flaws in the methodology or incorrect conclusions. Retrospective application of an argument and supporting facts in this way is called hindsight bias The affect heuristic – how emotional factors influence our thinking, particularly sub-conscious factors Risk cultures – groups to which individuals belong that shape their sense of identity which leads to them applying a particular perspective to a situation As noted, this is deep stuff but if you forget the terminology for a second, you will recognize patterns of behavior and will probably recall instances where you have noticed these effects on risk perception. We are now going to dig into each element a little deeper to better understand how these apply to to risk.\nThe Availability Heuristic and Availability Cascades\nThe availability and ease with which someone recalls information is an important factor when considering risk. Ease of recall can be increased by recent exposure, repetition or simply by making the information available in an accessible manner.\nThe ease with which we can recall a piece of information is termed the availability heuristic, a ‘pervasive mental shortcut’[iv] which is important not only for risk management, but is critical in other fields such as advertising. The availability heuristic is also at work where the setting and terminology used in a survey or discussion can have a significant effect on the answers.\nFrom a risk perspective, this means that if we are conducting a workshop or risk discussion, the examples provided will be the most accessible to the audience. If terrorism or flooding are used as examples, these elements are likely to be given heightened prominence in the answers received. This is not just a factor at the individual level.\nConsider some significant event on television and note how there will be a slew of similar stories over the following days and weeks. These other events may be routine (albeit possibly terrible) occurrences but are suddenly given prominence because of the one extraordinary event. News consumers confronted with a series of stories on mine disasters or pedophiles will believe these to be greater issues than might actually be the case.\nThis conflation of ideas and the creation of a wave of outrage is sometimes referred to as moral panic and is popular with tabloid journalism.\nInstances where a concentrated period of messaging takes place can lead to availability cascades:\n*“social cascades, or simply cascades, through which expressed perceptions trigger chains of individual responses that make these perceptions appear increasingly plausible through their rising availability in public discourse.”[v] *\nAvailability cascades and public outrage have the potential to change attitudes. These changes are wholly-driven by the frequency of repetition, not by an actual change in the frequency or magnitude of the offending event.\nThis effect is exacerbated where we have less primary reporting and more aggregated media where websites simply repeat the content of others. This increases amplification, which results in a single story of a single event, being re-published or linked multiple times while giving the impression of multiple incidents.\nRisk managers should be mindful of this when attempting to determine the scale of a problem as people may be reporting what they hear or read, rather than providing primary data. Web searching can also present a similar problem and you need to confirm that apparently separate data points come from different sources.\nGrouping and social networking can also have an influence on the availability of information. People feel more comfortable surrounded by like-minded groups sharing similar world views. This can then drive the places they live, eat, worship or where they get their news.\nThis type of association creates echo chambers, where preconceived perceptions are repeated, thus increasing their availability and providing further confirmation that these ideas are valid. This links back to availability cascades, and research shows that individual perceptions and positions become more fixed when surrounded by like-minded individuals. Another term for this is groupthink where positions harden when groups interact.\nFrom our perspective, we need to avoid inadvertently leading a discussion in a particular direction with the information or examples that we provide. We also need to determine where ideas originate from as this might influence their relevance in a risk discussion. Groupthink is also a pervasive issue during any group discussion and something we need to try to avoid.\nAnchoring\nAnchoring is closely related to the availability heuristic in the sense that the information most recently presented is easiest to recall. Anchoring refers specifically to how we respond to quantitative data. As an example, if I provide you with an age or price range in the context of a decision, the way I present it can influence your thinking.\nAnyone who has been to a car dealership has seen this in action where the first offer price anchors the subsequent discussions. As soon as the buyer sees the sticker price in the window, all other offers will be anchored to that number. Thus, their perception of whether or not they are getting a good deal will be based on the final offer’s relation to the initial asking price, not the actual value of the vehicle.\nAnchoring, coupled with the availability heuristic, is what makes selecting the examples used in any theoretical discussion highly important. In addition to all of the other factors at play, any examples you provide are influencing your audience whether you mean to or not.\nConfirmation and Hindsight Bias\nThe availability heuristic is closely linked to confirmation bias: ‘the more often I see something, the more convinced of it I am’. Nicholas Nasim Taleb uses the example of swans: our recurring sightings of white swans, and a lack of observed black swans, leads us to conclude that there are no black swans. In fact, these observations simply prove the existence of white swans: these don’t prove the nonexistence of black swans, only their absence from our sample.\nThe confirmation bias therefore complements the availability heuristic. Not only will we recall information more easily when it is readily available, but the confirmation of our views strengthens the validity of these views in our mind. This also leads us to reject observations that challenge our beliefs so we tend to reject data that does not confirm what we already ‘know’.\nConfirmation bias can also lead to self-fulfilling prophecies: we believe that something will fail and therefore are less likely to become involved or invest. Starved of support and resources, the endeavor fails thus reinforcing our belief that we were correct. The opposite can also be true where a successful business or political candidate gathers increased support, while increasing their chances of success.\nIn both cases, the eventual outcome is unknown at the point at which a decision was made, so a decision is only ‘right’ when a backward-looking narrative is constructed to fit the decision to events. This is referred to as hindsight bias and validating theories retrospectively can be highly misleading.\nThis hindsight bias is also a key element of Taleb’s black swan theory where a black swan event is: an outlier, outside the realm of regular expectation; has extreme impact; and is explained by concocted arguments after the fact to make the event [appear] explainable and predictable.[vi]\nFor our purposes, we need to ensure that sample sets and information gathered in an assessment are broad and don’t only confirm initial impressions or preconceived notions. We should also ensure that any retrospective analysis is based upon what was known at that time, rather than applying the benefits of hindsight.\nThe Affect Heuristic\nDespite our best efforts to remain rational, non-rational, sub-conscious factors influence our views of risk, which we call the affect heuristic.\nPaul Slovic identified the competing influences of rational and non-rational factors in risk decision-making. He describes the affect-heuristic as a reliance on feelings and experiences for all decision-making. Importantly, while we will have occasions where our emotions are strong enough for us to be aware of their influence, more subtle emotions and less obvious experiences will also influence us subconsciously.\nIt is easy to see how shouting ‘fire’ or ‘snake’ or recalling a traumatic event will lead to a knee-jerk reaction, but the affect heuristic also influences how we react to information based on how it is presented. Thus, we often focus on high-profile, attention-grabbing events because these trigger an emotional response but we ignore the logical aspect that reminds us of the very low probability of these events.\nThe emotional effect of how information is presented was demonstrated by Paul Slovic’s research on the affect heuristic. Slovic examined the different reaction that doctors had when presented with a violent patient’s likelihood to re-offend, noting that the doctor’s reaction appeared to depend on whether recidivism was expressed as a flat percentage or a comparative ratio.\nHe found a recidivism rate described as ‘20%’ was more likely to lead to a release than instances where doctors were told that ‘20 of 100 similar patients reoffend’. This suggest that percentage expressions of risk may be less emotive than relative values. Therefore, saying ’20 offenders’ in this example presents a more tangible idea of risk than an abstract percentage.\nFor risk managers, the way data is presented would have repercussions on how people react. This could become a very complex matter to try to manage but one way to reduce these influences is to stick to a set format for presenting data. If you begin with percentage values, stick with these but if you have used a relative value, use that format throughout. Although this doesn’t remove these influences, it keeps any biases constant.\nCultural factors\nWe are all products of our environments and these experiences, both our own and from our social groups, significantly affect our worldview or perspective. This is important when discussing risk because of its highly subjective nature. There is often no right or wrong view of risk, only what is acceptable or not for an individual or group.[vii]\nIn this context, culture refers to a group with shared characteristics. This is broader than national or social ideas of culture. In this construct, shared characteristics such as religion, ethnicity, economic status, sexual orientation, age or even support for a particular soccer team could be the basis for a culture. Some cultures, such as ethnicity, can be inherited but others are self-selected when we choose to identify with a particular group. Importantly, these choices may change over time.\nIndividuals can also belong to or inhabit multiple cultures simultaneously, which can sometimes lead to contradictory views of a situation (think of elderly conservatives who want to cut benefit expenditure but also like free bus passes). This means that not only can the same situation be viewed differently by each person, but each person can also hold multiple views simultaneously. Which of these views is more prevalent at any time, and therefore which has the greatest influence on the individual’s perspective of a risk, will depend on the subject under discussion and current circumstances.\nAn insightful study of these factors concerned the Carrington petrochemical complex in the UK [viii]. Observers noticed that individuals reacted to information provided about the risks arising from the plant in different ways, which prompted a major study.\nThe researcher noted that many individuals living near the chemical plant were also workers at the plant. For these people, the proximity of the plant could be seen as both a threat (in case of an accident) and an opportunity (as the source of household income). That meant that sometimes they were reacting to information as part of the worker culture but at other times, as members of the parent culture.\nOther residents who worked elsewhere didn’t inhabit the worker group and just saw the plant as a hazard. This might suggest that these cultures are a conscious, rational part of our approach to decision-making and there are many times when this will be the case. However, despite our best attempts to be rational and objective, cultural biases can also be sub-conscious influences, potentially at odds with each other.\nAs I noted, there are well over a hundred heuristics, so what we have covered – the availability heuristic, anchoring, confirmation and hindsight bias, the affect heuristic, and risk cultures – barely scratches the surface of this topic. However, these are some of the main influences we will encounter during any risk discussion.\nI hope that despite the jargon and academic approach, you can recognize these factors from your own experiences and see how the ways we view and discuss risk will have a significant influence on our work as risk managers. Again, these concepts are not confined to the understand phase of our system and will come up again later. These concepts aren’t even confined to risk management and you will recognize the use of these techniques in many different fields ranging from car dealerships to advertisers, by politicians and even terrorist recruiters, so this section has a wider utility than simply risk management. That said, let’s get back on topic and look at risk communication before we move on to some practical measures.\nRisk Communication\nISO 73 describes risk communication as “a continual and iterative processes that an organization conducts to provide, share or obtain information, and to engage in dialogue with stakeholders regarding the management of risk.” We have discussed the various heuristics and biases that affect how we perceive information but that’s only part of risk communication.\nWe also need to consider how risk information is delivered. Like any other form of communication, there are ways to be more effective and to help make the communication more effective. We will look at in this section.\nThe specific objective of each piece of risk communication will differ depending on the situation, but risk communications can generally be considered under one of the following three headings [ix]:\nAcademic: communicating to gather or disclose information without expectations about quality of learning or ability to influence Consensus Building: communicating to build consensus Behavioral Modification: communicating for the purpose of changing perceptions, attitudes, and beliefs about risks and consequently achieving behavior modifications toward risk Each of these can be illustrated in the context of a large construction project. Technical, empirical risk data is gathered from academic sources during the planning phase. Later, consensus building is necessary to convince nearby residents that this project will benefit them.\nTt other times, behavioral modifications may be necessary. For example, encouraging people to avoid certain areas during higher-risk construction activity. If something were to go wrong, consensus building and behavioral modification will be necessary which this is something we will look at more in the repose section.\nRisk communication is a two-way street: it is a conversation, not a lecture. However, this has only become a collaborative activity recently. Previously, experts would be relied on to tell people what was safe or not and explain how to address these risks. Known as the deficit model, this hierarchical approach became less effective in Western-style democracies in the latter half of the 20th Century as individuals began to lose confidence in government and question authority more readily.\nEven in authoritarian regimes, information democratization now means that greater inclusion in risk decision-making is necessary. This consultative, collaborative approach is called the societal model and combines public consultation with expert opinion. While this inclusive approach is often seen as better, it does have limits. ‘Not in my backyard’ attitudes and gut-reactions arising from availability cascades, can often overshadow the results of comprehensive safety investigations, particularly over emotive issues such as nuclear power.\nPublic skepticism and growing anti-elite sentiment devalues expert findings and the prevalence of opinion-based news, rather than fact-driven reporting, adds to this mistrust. This means that a well-meaning attempt to promote inclusivity can quickly become confused and issues can stall. A degree of balance is therefore necessary when developing risk communication plans.\nWe must ensure that there is sufficient inclusion to gather the necessary data to develop understanding. The value of each piece of consultation may have to be weighed, as some opinions might have more validity than others. This is not to diminish the importance of people’s feelings and opinions that have a role in risk communication, but it is important to differentiate between feelings and facts.\nRisk communication is a significant topic in its own right and we will look at this in more detail when we look at risk treatments and responding to risks. I want to pause this discussion here for the moment and move on to some practical steps that we can take to address these biases and heuristics during the understand phase.\nPractical Application\nWe have covered a lot of academic ground so far but how can we apply this in the real world?\nImportantly, I don’t think you should try to compensate for suspected biases or heuristics. Be aware of each of these factors and try to remove as much of their influence as possible. Don’t try to ‘weigh’ someone’s answers if you suspect a particular bias is at play. Rather, try to construct risk conversations in a manner that allows as much subjectivity to be removed as possible. Try to overcome, avoid or isolate some of the biases mentioned above.\nThe ultimate determination of what is or is not an acceptable risk will remain subjective. Our aim is to remove as much subjective influence as possible from the assessment. This allows the final decision to be based on an assessment, which is as objective as we can make it.\nSo how can we achieve this in practice?\nThe first thing that I would recommend is to take your time. Rushing an assessment or a risk discussion drives people into System 1 thinking, which results in fast, gut-reaction results. Plan a deliberate approach that allows time for considered thinking and discussion. If you find that you are getting answers shot back at you with little apparent thought, slow things down. Ask for examples, put things into context or ask the other person to rationalize any apparent contradictions. This will make them review what they said and elaborate or at least provide you enough information to back up their assertions. You might also find that digging a little deeper can get you to the ‘real’ issues\nYou should also develop neutral frameworks as much as possible. This means removing things from the process that might trigger some kind of heuristic or bias. I like to use simple, abstract, sometimes silly, examples when explaining risk metrics because people can understand these but don’t try to relate them to their own situation. If you use examples that reflect real-life concerns, these will be most readily available in people’s minds and rise to higher prominence than what is warranted.\nSimilarly, if you plan to use any kind of data in your examples, try not to anchor people’s thinking with this information. This particularly relates to how you pose questions. Pose open questions and establish a set of responses to use. Try not to emphasize any of these terms or values in your question. See the risk metricsarticle for more on metrics and ratings.\n“So you’d agree that the threat from terrorism would cause a lot of damage? Close to $1million?” is not a great question.\nOn the subject of openness, keep your own mind open too. You are subject to your own biases but you need to ensure that you remain as objective as possible.\nStructured discussions will ensure that all elements, not just the most exciting or contentious topics, are covered. You will have to accept that there is a high degree of repetition in an extensive survey. A structured approach and repetitive questions will help you establish a good understanding of the organization. This repetitive digging often leads to interesting revelations that might otherwise be overlooked. It also helps limit your own biases. Additionally, always try to use facts and data points to prompt your questions.\nIn terms of data, I also like to establish a foundation of facts before I move on to subjective issues. You can start by reviewing the ‘knowns’: the size of organization, an individual’s role, operation of the department, stated objectives. This helps move the conversation along before getting into subjective issues that might otherwise become sticky.\nFurthermore, you also have a set of facts to return to that might help you query answers that seem out of place or unsupported by the data. This is also a good way to gauge the individual’s reaction to the process. It can also help you read the room in a group setting, which leads to the question of individual or group discussions.\nIdeally, I would try to conduct information-gathering interviews with as few people present as possible, ideally one-on-one interviews. This avoids group-think or people responding to the most senior or loudest voice in the room.\nWhen it comes to other activities, such as a workshop to agree a way ahead (consensus building), having everyone together is sometimes necessary. In this case, allow everyone a quick preview of the material to help them establish their own views before these are exposed to the group.\nSet ground-rules for the workshop and determine how views will be heard and responded to. You should act as a neutral facilitator so try to remain fact-driven, which means you must support your own conclusions with data, not just defend the work because it is yours.\nKeep everyone focused on the workshop objectives and ensure that everyone can contribute using your ground-rules as a guide. This can be easier said than done. Challenges and discussion are a necessary part of stress-testing ideas and consensus building, but this also must be fact-based and managed sensitively. Start with facts and data to establish some ‘known’ points that you can return to if the discussion gets pulled off course or when you need to challenge an idea that is unsupported by data. Ground-rules and your active management of discussions should keep things in check.\nFinally, remember that concerns that may seem irrational to you may be completely rational to others. Family medical history, social culture, sexual preferences, religious beliefs and a myriad other factors will all influence an individual or group’s perspective. You will not be aware of a lot of these things. These perspectives or cultures might make some risks completely rational but you might not appreciate this if you are incorrectly assuming an individual or group’s perspective.\nAgain, risk is a very subjective issue, so spending some time trying to understand the other’s point of view will significantly improve your ability to understand the situation and effectively manage the risks.\nSummary\nDespite the length of this essay, we have only just scratched the surface of these topics. I hope that this has helped explain the background to some of the behaviors that you have experienced in the past. This should allow you to better identify, account for and manage the elements that affect how we think about risk, heuristics, and the influences that shape what an individual’s thinks about a particular risk, biases. Moreover, we can now differentiate between the two ways we approach risk, risk as feeling or risk as analysis. This affects nearly every aspect of risk management from understanding to response.\nWe now have some techniques that you can now use to account for these influences and some ideas on how to structure our risk communications. All of which will enhance your ability to conduct a risk assessment and achieve understanding.\n~Andrew\nIf you enjoyed this, please sign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n[i] Jardine C. and Hrudey E. (1997) Mixed Messages in Risk Communication, Risk Analysis, Vol 17, No 4, 1997. Pp 489 – 498.\n[ii] Slovic P. and Peters E. (2006), ‘Risk Perception and Affect’ in Current Directions in Psychological Science 15:6 , 322–325 online here accessed 4th June 2008\n[iii] Kahneman, D. (2003). Maps of bounded rationality: Psychology for behavioral economics. American Economic Review, American Economic Association, 93(5), 1449–1475.\n[iv] Kuran T. and Sunstein C. (1999) ‘Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation’, in Stanford Law Review, 51 (4).\n[v] Kuran and Sunstein, 1999\n[vi] Taleb, NN (2007) The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable. New York, Random House, xxii\n[vii] Adams J. (1995), Risk, Abingdon: Routledge, 9\n[viii] Irwin, A. (1995), Citizen Science: A Study of People, Expertise, and Sustainable Development, New York: Routledge\n[ix] Zimmerman R. (1987) ‘A Process Framework for Risk Communication’, Science, Technology, \u0026amp; Human Values, Vol. 12, No. 3/4, (Special Issue on the Technical and Ethical Aspects of Risk Communication), Summer – Autumn, 1987, pp. 131-137. Available online at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/689393 accessed: 2 June 2008\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/04/03/wdymb-risk-perception-and-risk-communication/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eComplicated, subtle factors affect how we perceive risk and these can be exacerbated by the way we receive risk information. We refer to the ways we think about and react to risks as risk perception, and the processes for discussing risk as risk communication. Even when people are in the same or very similar situations, they may perceive the risks very differently. Similarly, different people listening to the same risk information will react to it differently depending on several factors that affect their perspective. The overall result of this is “the general frustration experienced by both risk managers and affected parties in conveying and understanding risk information”.[i]\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"WDYMB…Risk Perception and Risk Communication?"},{"content":"When we are conducting a risk assessment, we need a way to assess, grade and order risks to allow us to use this information for decision-making and to prioritize our actions. This article outlines some basic techniques that can be used for risk assessment grading and matrics. These basic examples lay the foundation for more complex sets of metrics that can be adapted for your organization and the specifics of the assessment. An example of the metrics used in the r = tvi construct and the risk calculation tool are included along with links to online tools that you can copy and use in your own assessments.\nRisk Assessment Grading and Metrics Whichever risk assessment methodology we use, we need a set of values to apply to each factor to help us determine a rating for individual factors and the overall risk. This can be achieved using numerical values, qualitative statements or color coding. Applying scales like these allows us to grade and order our risks which helps with prioritization and comparative analysis.\nQuantitative values allow you to easily order and compare risks Qualitative statements make it easier to discuss or describe factors Color coding provides a visual key to differentiate between different ratings For ease, I will refer to these collectively as metrics. An example set of basic metrics is shown below.\n1 Low Green\n2 Medium Amber\n3 High Red\nAlthough it might seem more complicated initially, having all three options available to start with makes your assessment easier in the long run. This allows you to use the appropriate value or description to suit the stages of the process while ensuring that these are consistent throughout your assessment.\nFor example, you can use Low / Medium / High as descriptive terms during discussions which then become numeric values in your assessment template. These are then highlighted with the appropriate color to provide a visual key. The important point here is that ‘Low’ now has a distinct and fixed meaning and is just as explicit as a value of 1.\nThe same basic approach can be used for sets of metrics with more variables or options. Metrics with values from 1 – 5 are quite common. For simplicity, we are going to stick with three values for this discussion.\nTools – Risk Spreadsheets Spreadsheets are useful tools for basic risk assessments as Excel and similar spreadsheet programs are widely accessible making these easy to complete and share. If a spreadsheet is set up correctly, it will provide a quick and easy way to manage, assess and grade risks for a simple situation.\nThe most basic basic risk construct is risk = (threat) likelihood x impact and we can use this with the metrics described above to complete a simple spreadsheet. An example from Bob’s risk assessmentis shown below, this time, without the numeric values. However, he used the same descriptive terms and color scheme. (This assessment uses the r = tvi formula.)\nAgain, more complicated formulas can be tackled in a spreadsheet. The more complicated the formula, the more care that needs to be taken to ensure that all of the links and formatting are set up correctly.\nA link to a basic risk assessment template can be found here.\nTools – The Boston Square The Boston Square is another popular tool for risk assessments and can be used as a stand-alone tool or a way to represent risk results. The Boston Square presents information with two values on a color-coded grid. This works well if you are using the basic** likelihood x impact** formula: you simply allocate an axis to each factor and plot risks on the grid accordingly.\nThis example shows the overall risk value for each quadrant:\nThis example shows the infrastructure risk as described in the **likelihood x impact **spreadsheet above:\nThe Boston Square is often used as a simple way to brainstorm risks in a workshop. Note that this approach allows a lot of bias and subjectivity into the assessment, rather than evaluating each risk on its own factors, so there is a tendency to immediately start to compare risks to one another.\nAlthough I would recommend that you use a different tool for assessing your risks, the Boston Square can still be used as a way to represent the findings of your assessment. You can begin by assessing the risks in a spreadsheet before transferring the final results to an appropriately marked Boston Square. This provides a simple way to represent your findings while maintaining the objectivity of the assessment process.\nA blank Boston Square is also included in the assessment template.\nA more Advanced Methodology Ther = tvi formula that I prefer uses a similar metrics structure but has five different values and ratings to allow some additional refinement in the results. The metrics are shown below and I have also included a short description of what each term could mean when used to describe a different factor. These definitions are not fixed and this is something that can be adapted for your organization or the particular assessment.\nAlthough this is a little busier than the previous example, the underlying concept is the same. A value, color or term can be applied to each factor.\nWe are also unable to use a Boston Square now as that limits us to two factors but we can use other graphs and charting tools to represent our results, as required. An example of one comparison graph is shown below. It illustrates how overall risk can be compared to the likely impact of an event. This helps highlight higher impact events irrespective of their overall risk as these can be particularly damaging to an organization.\n(If I am honest, I found that I was struggling to do this in a spreadsheet as these were getting quite large and complicated so I built a piece of software to help with this. It’s online for free and you can read more here.)\nData Visualization For example, in this case, although safety and infrastructure threats pose similar risks and would both fall into the ‘significant’ category, infrastructure risks carry potentially higher impacts which might prioritize this as an area for action.\nSummary There are many systems and methodologies for risk assessment. Most involve a set of metrics with some combination of descriptive terms, quantitative values and a color-code. Personally, I now use the **r=tvi **model and the assessment tool I built for assessments. I save the Boston Square for more subjective brainstorming to compare options.\nHowever, whichever approach you use, the options outlined above offer a basic frameworks that can then be built upon for more complicated systems that you can adapt for your own assessments in the future. The key thing to ensure is that you have a clear and robust system of grading and metrics in place before you start.\n~Andrew\nIf you enjoyed this, please sign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/03/24/risk-assessments-grading-and-metrics/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eWhen we are \u003ca href=\"https://dcdr.io/2017/03/18/risk-assessment-process-how-to-conduct-a-risk-assessment/\"\u003econducting a risk assessment,\u003c/a\u003e we need a way to assess, grade and order risks to allow us to use this information for decision-making and to prioritize our actions. This article outlines some basic techniques that can be used for risk assessment grading and matrics.  These basic examples lay the foundation for more complex sets of metrics that can be adapted for your organization and the specifics of the assessment. An example of the metrics used in the \u003cstrong\u003er = tvi\u003c/strong\u003e construct and the risk calculation tool are included along with links to online tools that you can copy and use in your own assessments.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"Risk Assessments Grading and Metrics"},{"content":"*The risk assessment lies at the core of risk management. Without a clear understanding of the risks faced, none of the other risk management activities can be undertaken. This means that the organization will remain reactive instead of being able to take proactive steps informed by risk-based decision making. However, risk assessments have the potential to become hugely complex, sometimes becoming the only risk management activity that is undertaken, as organizations become exhausted by the assessment process and don’t conduct any of the follow-up activities. Detailed here is a four-phase risk assessment process that can be used for most non-technical assessments. *\nThe Risk Assessment Process There are many different types of risk assessment methodology (ISO recognizes over 30) ranging from very straightforward cause and effect models to more complex, data-driven methods. Many of these are very specific methodologies designed for specific situations, but a basic cause and effect model will suit our needs as this can be applied on most non-technical situations. However, in addition to a methodology, we also need a risk assessment process to guide us through the assessment from start to finish.\nThe following four-stage approach – Prepare, Understand, Assess and Report – can be used in most situations with the applicable methodology inserted into the Assessment stage. These four stages of the process are shown below.\nThis essay works through these four stages explaining the key steps while trying to highlight some of the considerations to bear in mind while conducting a risk assessment. During the Assessment stage, we will also expand on the risk = threat x vulnerability x impact model that was discussed earlier, using this as the basis for our assessment methodology in a cause-effect model. However, before we go any farther, it’s time you met Bob.\nBob is the Health, Safety and Environmental (HSE) manager for XYZ Widget Co, a small manufacturer of high-specification widgets, primarily for the oil and gas industry, based in Houston, Texas with a small facility in Janwick, a small country in West Africa. One afternoon, Bob calls in to see the CEO for their weekly safety round up and Xavier, the CEO, asks Bob how he feels about taking on a little project. Bob smiles – he has known Xavier for years and knows that this usually means the project is anything but little – and simply says, “Sure. What do you need, Boss?” *Xavier leans back and launches into his story. “So here’s the deal, Bob. I was speaking to some investment folks the other day and they were interested in our little business here, nothing to write home about yet but we had a good get-together all the same. But there was one thing that was bugging me afterwards – one of these fellas asked me what kept me up at night. Well, that stumped me a bit, as I have to confess I sleep pretty well when my back’s not bothering me, so I just replied that the Texans starting line-up always causes me some anxiety and we had a good laugh. But here’s the thing Bob, I’m getting asked this kind of question more and more and I think we need to have a better handle on our risks. I think we manage things pretty well and are good at firefighting when things go wrong but I think we need to formalize this a bit. Could you put together a risk assessment of the business for me?” * After a bit more discussion, Bob heads back to his office knowing three things about the project: he needs to conduct a risk assessment, he has three weeks to do it and he has no idea what that entails….\nNow, Bob is fictitious, but there are plenty of Bobs out there (some of you might recognize this situation – I certainly do) so we are going to use Bob’s project as a way to put some meat onto the bones of what would otherwise be a relatively dry topic. For now, let’s leave Bob in his office Googling ‘risk assessment process’ and look at the first stage of the process in detail.\nClick here for a template to help plan your risk assessment project Phase 1 – Preparation The first phase of the risk assessment process is Preparation. You need to understand exactly what it is that you’re trying to achieve with the assessment, in addition to the resources available to you and any limitations there may be. During this phase, you will also be considering the information required and where to obtain it from. You don’t necessarily need to start gathering information at this point but some information gathering may have to be arranged well in advance. Finally, this phase also ensures that you understand the context in which the assessment is being undertaken. For instance, conducting an annual risk review assessment in an organization where things are running smoothly is a very different situation from a pre-acquisition assessment of an organization that is being taken over.\nSome of these elements have already been covered in the WDYMB…Understanding?article but the two key steps in the preparation phase are:\nEstablish the objectives, scope and parameters. Ensure that you are clear about the overall objective of the assessment and its scope because without clarifying these, it will be very difficult to achieve the overall objective. At this point, you also need to confirm the final user of the report (the client), the project manager (if applicable), the assessment team, budget and timeframe. Budget and timeframe are the main parameters but there may be other restrictions that might affect how you conduct the assessment. Develop an assessment project plan. Once the objective, scope and parameters have been identified, a simple project plan for the assessment can be developed. This should break down the key work streams, outline a project timeline and delegate tasks to team members. A project plan also helps identify any critical information requirements that may have long lead times. Again, it may be necessary to schedule interviews or site visits well in advance and this should be considered while agreeing to project parameters. As with most things, a well thought-out plan provides a solid basis for the assessment and helps keep the focus on the overall objective whilst still remaining mindful of the parameters of the project. With that in place, it’s time to check back in with Bob.\nBob has made good progress since his meeting with Xavier. He came across an excellent risk assessment process guide online (one that looks a lot like this…) and has decided to use that as a road map for his assessment. He has put together a few bullet points as far as a project scope and plan and agreed these with Xavier as follows: Objective*: To provide a top-level assessment of XYZ Co’s risks in order to assist the CEO in determining any areas requiring particular attention in the next financial year.* Scope*: All of XYZ Co’s business activities, concentrating on the company’s top-level objectives.* Parameters*: The assessment will cover the whole organization, but no travel is budgeted for trips to other XYZ Co sites. The assessment will be reviewed by the senior leadership team in three weeks. This is an internal assessment and the HSE Manager is the lead on the project. * *Bob also asks Xavier to send a note to all of the senior leaders and department heads explaining that Bob is conducting this assessment on the CEO’s behalf and requesting their cooperation. He maps out a rough timetable: week one focuses on understanding, week two is set aside for drafting the assessment and a first review and the final week is set aside for follow up, revisions and a workshop with the senior leadership team to review the final report. Bob has already been able to book time in people’s schedules for interviews and he plans to get these done by the end of week one to leave plenty of time for follow up. * Feeling that he is making good progress, Bob now turns his attention to the Understand stage.\nPhase 2 – Develop Understanding Before the assessment itself can be completed, it is necessary to develop a deep understanding of the organization, its operations, operating environment and the challenges it faces. This understanding will be based on reviews of the organization’s own documents, staff interviews and open-source research. The existing knowledge of the project team will also be useful. Care should be taken not to bring pre-conceived ideas or biases into the risk assessment process. At this stage, the focus is on gathering facts and data.\nInformation Requirements The specific information requirements you have will depend on the purpose of the assessment. In general, you are trying to understand:\nThe organization’s goals and objectives Its structure and individual roles and responsibilities What ‘normal’ looks like The critical processes Risk attitudes, tolerance and appetite The operating environment and likely threats Sensitivities and potential conflicts or road blocks Any changes to ‘normal’ and how these might affect the organization. This level of understanding is probably enough to begin to populate the assessment itself but you will find that as you dig into one area, additional questions will arise. You should keep asking ‘why?’ and ‘so what?’ to ensure that you really understand the organization before you start the Assessment phase.\nBob has worked with XYZ Co for several years but even though he interacts with everyone in the business as HSE manager, he still needs to learn more about some of the functions and departments. He draws up a list of documents that he wants to review before he starts his round of interviews. He also runs a few different searches on the main trade news sites and some general Google searches on XYZ Co to see what other kind of stories come up. Finally, he realizes that he doesn’t know very much about the facility in Janwick other than their day-to-day operations so he adds that to his list of information requirements. He aims to get all of this research completed by the middle of week one as his interviews are scheduled for Thursday and Friday of that week.\nInformation Gathering How you go about gathering information is largely down to personal choice but it can also be based on availability. Sometimes you just have to begin with what is available. Personally, I prefer to start with a top-level document review of the whole organization. Even if I’m focused on one activity or a single project, I find that this helps put everything into context. This would include looking at the organization’s overall structure, where it operates, reviewing top level policies and procedures, reading recent annual reports and conducting open source searches for news about the organization.\nOnce I feel that I have a general understanding of the overall organization, I then start to draw up the specific information requirements that I think I need to meet the assessment’s objective. Throughout this research, I try to keep detailed notes and list key observations or additional information requirements that I identify. This will be a great help later but I try to avoid drawing any conclusions at this stage.\nOnce you have completed the basic document review, you can move on to the interview phase. I recommend researching before interviews when possible, as you might find that you have too many knowledge gaps to be able to conduct an effective interview. Interviews are an opportunity for you to help fill in gaps you have after the document review. You could then get a better idea of what issues and concerns people have. Care should be taken here, as simply cataloging people’s concerns will give you a fear registry, so make sure you dig deeper.\nNevertheless, understanding people’s concerns can often explain why a seemingly disproportionate amount of time or effort has been focused on one area instead of another. During interviews, keep detailed notes because you will want to refer to them later. Quotes can be used anonymously in reports to allow people greater freedom to be forthright. I also recommend that you have a basic script for each interview and ensure that you cover the same core questions each time. I have found that this kind of repetition can generate interesting results.\nThroughout the understanding phase and the whole risk assessment process itself, it is important to remain curious and somewhat skeptical so ask yourself, ‘so what?’ and ‘why?’. This isn’t suggesting that people are misleading you – although that can happen – but you are trying to identify gaps, discrepancies and matters that might be overlooked otherwise. Unless you ask ‘why?’ or dig a little deeper, you will end up with a superficial perspective on the organization’s risks and more complex, less obvious, but critical risks may be overlooked.\nPutting this into Practice – What Bob Did *Feeling confident that he has a better understanding of the company as a whole, and armed with an interview ‘script’ and set of specific information requirements, Bob starts his interviews on Thursday. He plans to start with a bottom-up approach, speaking to the managers in each department before he speaks to the COO (Yasmin, Xavier’s daughter) and the Sales, Strategy and Marketing (SSM) Manager (Zack, Xavier’s son). *\nThe XYZ Co Org Chart\nHe splits each interview into three parts. First is a general set of questions to clarify the exact role of that individual and department, how that function supports the overall organization and what the department’s key objective are. Throughout this first part, he uses follow up questions to close any information gaps remaining after his research. Once he is comfortable that he understands the department’s role and function, he asks about areas of concern and previous events to determine what kind of threats the department faces and how these might affect the business. Finally, he asks about the measures that they have in place to prevent or respond to events. He finishes his interview with Zack at 4:00pm on Friday and heads back to his office, dropping his notepad onto the growing pile of documents he has gathered for the assessment. He remembers that he still has to finish his weekly safety summary report so he puts the risk assessment aside for now and gets to work on his routine reports. At around 5:00pm, he hears a knock and looks up to see Xavier at the door. The CEO looks around Bob’s office and sees the growing piles of paper. “I guess that wasn’t such a little project after all. What do you say you just send me the draft of the weekly safety report now and call it a day? I can finish that up myself and let you get off.” “See you Monday,” Xavier calls over his shoulder as he heads back to his own office. Bob doesn’t need to be asked twice. He hits ‘send’ on the report and heads out the door before the CEO changes his mind.\nPhase 3 – Structure and Complete the Assessment Once all of the information has been gathered, the assessment can begin. The first action is to ensure that there is a logical structure for the assessment itself. If an existing structure exists, it should be used, particularly if the assessment is meant to draw comparison with previous surveys. However, at other times, it may be necessary to develop a structure from scratch.\nIn general terms, there are usually three components to the risk assessment itself: a set of categories to help collate risks into similar ‘baskets’, a methodology for evaluating risk and a **grading system **to evaluate these risks. Normally, this assessment is developed in a form or table to help with data entry and manipulation.\nOnce the structure is in place, completing the first draft of the assessment should be as straightforward as dropping the relevant information into this template and applying the appropriate value. If an existing system is in place, it should be used, especially if a comparative assessment is required as different methodologies cannot be used for like-by-like comparisons. If a new system has to be developed, the project team should begin by brainstorming possible options to determine the most appropriate structure.\nStructuring the Assessment Categorization is a simple way to help with the development of the assessment and makes things easier to follow for the reader. Two common methods are to collate threats by type and origin – for example, market, environmental, political – or by organizational function and both approaches have pros and cons. For organization-specific assessments, categorizing by department helps align threats to objectives and is also useful when it comes to developing risk treatment plans. For more abstract situations, such as an assessment of a country or region, thematic categories would be more effective. As noted above, there are multiple different methodologies available for risk assessment. Personally, I like the r=tvi framework where risk is a combination of threat, vulnerability and impact using a basic cause and effect model, similar to the risk bow-tie. This is explained in more detail in the *What is Risk? *article.\nOnce a methodology is agreed on, we need some way to evaluate and grade risks, so we can then categorize or prioritize them. This can be achieved using descriptive statements, e.g. high / medium / low, color coding such as a red / amber / green system or with a numerical scale. We can use a combination of descriptive, qualitative statements and associated values to develop a set of ‘scores’ that allows us to put risks into order. As I have noted previously, I do not believe it is possible to measure risk. Care should be taken to avoid any system that appears to give a precise measurement for risk (for example saying X% risky), as I feel this can be misleading.\nBob is well-rested on Monday and is actually excited to get back to the risk assessment. He has put aside that morning to set out the structure for the assessment and begins by considering the categories. He feels that a functional structure will be easiest as both a way to complete the assessment and as a way to present the results. He ends up with this basic template into which he can begin to insert and grade individual threats. Bob’s blank template is shown below. (This is also available as a template here.)\nAgain, Bob is keen to keep things simple so he is going to use the r = tvi method and apply a high / medium / low scoring system. He is also going to color code the results as he feels that this will give him a lot of options for differentiating between high and low priority risks when he presents the assessment results.\nI believe that assessments should be as objective and as evidence-led as possible. You should not try to get all of the evidence into the main assessment table as this can make things unworkable. Rather, I recommend keeping the entries in the assessment as clear and succinct as possible, but support these summary statements with a clearly documented set of references.\nFor example, if an event would result in a 48 – 72 hour production delay impact, you don’t need to include a full explanation of why that is the case, but the report should cite a reference or help the reader find that explanation in the annexes. The next section on risk reporting will provide some additional thoughts on how to describe a risk in a way that can be used in the assessment form itself.\nPutting this into Practice – What Bob Did *Now that the template is complete, Bob clears the rest of his normal Monday work schedule and blocks off Tuesday just to concentrate on completing the template. At first, he struggles a bit, trying to get too much information into the template but he reminds himself of the old adage ‘KISS: keep it simple, stupid’ and finds that this makes the whole risk assessment process easier. He has a comprehensive set of notes from his research and the interviews, so it is easy for him to insert references and explanations in an Annex document so he can keep the main assessment document simple and straightforward. * By lunchtime on Tuesday, he is slightly surprised to see that he has pretty much completed the draft assessment. There are a couple of outstanding items that don’t quite make sense and he wants to follow up with some managers to clear them up. He schedules quick follow up meetings with the relevant individuals and sends Xavier a quick note to report on how things are going and to set up a review meeting for that Friday morning. “Time for the XYZ Co Risk Manager to grab some lunch,” he thinks to himself.\nPhase 4 – Complete the Report **Risk assessments are decision-making tools **so we need a way to share the final report with the client and a wider audience in the organization. Structuring your Report Spoiler! Risk assessment reports might not be the most exciting document someone finds in their inbox. You need to think about how to make this as accessible and easy to use as possible without dumbing the whole thing down.\nFour techniques can assist with this.\nFirst, use descriptions that are consistent throughout and explain these as early in the report as possible. If you use a grading system, ensure that readers understand what that is before they read the report, but again, keep it simple. The next step is to use natural language and a format for describing a risk that is easy to read and understand. Risk descriptions can become tortured, complex phrases loaded with double negatives and weird syntax, so find a way to represent the risk and its component parts in a format that is easy to understand. You can use the same language in the assessment template which also makes the compilation of the risk description much easier. I try to reflect the r = tvi formula in the description but move things around a little to make the description flow more easily. This structure also presents the key information as early as possible: what is generating the risk and how severe is it. As an example, here is a threat as it is laid out in Bob’s template followed by a summary description that he included in the main assessment report. Risk: Civil unrest in Janwick, HIGH Description: XYZ Co faces a HIGH threat [severity description] due to the potential for civil unrest in Janwick [threat* description**] which could have a HIGH impact on our global supply chain as our key manufacturing sites are concentrated there [impact** statement and explanation**]. The firm has MEDIUM vulnerability to civil unrest as our local safety and security arrangements were designed when the country was peaceful and have not been updated to address the deteriorating security situation [vulnerability** statement**].*\nThird, ensure the reader can find the key information as easily as possible. To assist with this, think about putting the key risks – those with the greatest severity that should be prioritized for action – up front in an executive summary. You can also list risks in their descending order of severity to ensure that the key risks aren’t buried in an alphabetized list. It can also be helpful to bundle the risks by category so the ultimate risk owner can find the items that he or she will have to address. You can either structure the report this way or have a tabulated list that readers can use to easily find the risks that they are particularly concerned about. Finally, include the necessary references to help readers understand the basis for the ratings and comments given in the assessment. This is important when you are developing a treatment plan as the user will need to get into the root causes of the risk to develop a risk treatment plan. Also, anyone conducting a risk review later will also need to see the rationale for your work. Wherever possible, use links, summaries and annexes to keep the report as user-friendly as possible. Be mindful of confidentiality, especially for comments made in an interview. Using quotes to back up observations can be useful but ensure the these don’t become a source of friction or contention which could rob the observation of its value. Presenting, Reviewing and Revising the Report To mangle Churchill, this is not the end of the assessment but it is the beginning of the end. We now have the initial report, but it needs to be reviewed and there are two objectives here.\nFirstly, there are likely to be mistakes in the report: items you overlooked or information that was recorded incorrectly. You obviously don’t want to issue a report with typos or incorrect calculations but a detailed risk assessment will be the product of hundreds of hours of work, a review of thousands of pages of material and dozens of interviews. I have even been involved in assessments where the organization itself was changing during the assessment so we had to keep altering terms as we went. The chances of getting everything 100% correct on the first go-around are (in my experience anyway) slim. This first review is therefore a chance to ensure that you haven’t overlooked anything and to correct any inaccuracies. A good way to do this is to review the draft with the project sponsor or client. If that isn’t possible, have someone else review the report to look for anything that isn’t backed-up by data and to question anything that seems out of place.\nBob agrees with Xavier that their Friday meeting will cover both the methodology and the preliminary results of the assessment. Xavier gets a draft of the report from Bob that morning to give him some time to become familiar with it but not so long that he will get into the details without Bob there to explain any methodology questions. During their meeting, Bob tries out some slides that he plans to use at next week’s workshop to explain the methodology and the CEO likes the combination of low / medium / high descriptions with the green / amber / red coloring. He also appreciates Bob’s KISS approach – “Good, let’s make sure we can walk before we run!”. With the methodology covered, they review the initial results and Xavier is generally happy with the draft. He spots a couple of areas where he feels people have exaggerated or downplayed things. Bob still asks the CEO for data to back up his comments and he notes this additional information to help with his final draft. After a couple of hours, and a lot of coffee, the CEO seems happy with Bob’s work. He stands up and slaps the HSE manager on the shoulder. “See,” he says, “not such a big deal after all. Good work, Bob.” With that, Bob headed back to his office, pleased that the first review went well, but already thinking about how he would manage the workshop. With Yasmin and Zack in the same room, it was going to be more tricky than this last session with their father, but that’s a problem for next week, he decides.\nAnother reason to review the report, is to start to sense-check the results with the organization’s senior leadership and to observe their reaction. Remember, the risk assessment is a decision-making tool but if the users reject it, it won’t fulfill its purpose. ‘Selling’ an assessment report could be a big topic by itself but delivering the report in person in a workshop format is better than simply emailing a PDF to the senior leadership team. This will allow you to immediately respond to questions or comments; if you have maintained an objective, fact-based approach, defending anything controversial is relatively straightforward as you have the evidence to fall back. Finally, this kind of meeting helps gauge people’s reactions to the assessment and you will begin sense which treatment options might work and those that might not. These workshops can be difficult to manage and take a lot of work to get right. However, they are extremely valuable as far as ‘selling’ the assessment and getting the organization to buy-in to the results.\nPutting this into Practice – What Bob Did As Bob expected, the workshop the following Tuesday was harder work than the meeting with the CEO, but he also felt that this wasn’t that different from some of the senior leadership meetings he had attended. Both Yasmin and Zack were good at their jobs but sibling rivalry was a stubborn thing…. Nevertheless, the final result was an assessment they could all agree on and a list of priority risks to address. They started to look at treatment plans but Xavier halted the meeting before they got into too much detail. “Let’s leave this to soak for a while and let Bob write up the final report. If you can get that done by close of business tomorrow, Bob, then we can get back together at the end of the week and start putting together a treatment plan.” *The meeting broke up shortly after that but not before the CEO and everyone thanked Bob for his work. Yasmin and Zack were particularly complimentary as they had both had risks identified that were more severe than they had previously thought. *\nAfter the reviews are over, and you have recovered from the workshop, the final report can be produced, reflecting any changes that are required. You might find that something remains inconclusive even after the review, and this can be noted too. For example, there might be significant disagreement about how effective a particular mitigation measure is and this can be noted in the risk description as a prompt for further action.\nClick here for a template to help plan your risk assessment project After the Assessment Although the risk assessment is now complete, we are really only at the beginning of the overall risk management process. Now, we move into the Address stage. Depending on the purpose of the assessment, we might find ourselves immediately developing treatment plans for the most severe risks. Alternatively, a project team might have to re-evaluate some of their planning assumptions if some of the project risks are simply too high for the organization to tolerate. The assessment will also have identified triggers or flags that signal a change or an impending event. These ‘tripwires’ can be monitored to offer some early warning of a potential event and to prompt any response that might be necessary.\nYou should find yourself referring to this assessment regularly during the Address phase as this is the baseline for modeling how different treatment plans might alter the risk profile. Once treatment plans are in place, you should compare the original assessment to updated results to ensure that risks are being addressed. The assessment should also be reviewed regularly to assess how changes in the situation might increase or decrease a threat and therefore, require amended treatment plans. Although the baseline assessment is ‘frozen’ as a record of the risks at that moment in time, reviews and developing updated assessments is an ongoing process. You need to ensure that the organization understands their current risks and are not using outdated information for decision-making.\nIt is important to ensure that managing the risk assessment does not become a business function in its own right. This can lead to that previously-mentioned, never-ending assessment and people become risk-fatigued. However, if you can instill the mindset that the risk assessment is a tool to support decision-making, then you can develop a healthy relationship with the risk assessment process which will benefit the organization.\nMany of these steps and the resulting stages in the risk management process will be covered in subsequent articles, but for now, that wraps up this How-To. There are many different reasons to conduct a risk assessment, varying methodologies and every organization has their own way of doing business. This means that a rigid, one-size-fits-all approach can be hard to apply. However, the framework outlined should provide a guide to the risk assessment process in the majority of cases: stick to these core elements as a start and you can then determine where you need or want to make changes to suit your situation.\nThat Friday, the final assessment is delivered and they were already at work on a treatment plan for some of the key risks. Bob heads back to his office after lunch and finds a box on his desk. Inside is a set of business cards with an updated title: ‘HSE Manager and Head of Risk’. He smiles to himself as he read the note that was taped to the box. “Good work, Bob. Now I know what I should be worrying about at night! Thanks, Xavier. PS – Come and see me on Monday as I’ve another little project to discuss…”\nThis is a pretty substantial topic and the essay could have been twice as long, but I hope this puts the risk assessment process into context and gives you a good starting point for your assessments or maybe a few ideas to apply to your existing system.\nGood luck to all of you Bobs out there.\nBy the way, this was the original post that eventually led to Beyond The Spreadsheet – my book on the risk assessment. You can learn more about that here\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/03/18/how-to-conduct-a-risk-assessment/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*The risk assessment lies at the core of risk management.  Without a clear understanding of the risks faced, none of the other risk management activities can be undertaken.  This means that the organization will remain reactive instead of being able to take proactive steps informed by risk-based decision making.  However, risk assessments have the potential to become hugely complex, sometimes becoming the only risk management activity that is undertaken, as organizations become exhausted by the assessment process and don’t conduct any of the follow-up activities.  Detailed here is a four-phase risk assessment process that can be used for most non-technical assessments. *\u003c/p\u003e","title":"How to Conduct a Risk Assessment"},{"content":"In the simplest of terms, risk management helps you function in the real world. Organizations are under constant assault from both anticipated and unanticipated events which threaten to derail their plans. Risk management is what helps them understand, prepare for and react to these events. The largest firms will spend thousands of hours and billions of dollars on risk and compliance annually and there are dozens of different standards or methodologies to help guide the risk manager. But what do you do if you are a small organization and there is no money for training or consulting? Or if risk management is the second or third responsibility on your job description – the one you never quite get around to?\nIf you find yourself in this position, you need something simple, robust and accessible. This is the core focus for Riskademy. Essentially, this is the material I wished that I had when I started as a risk manager. This is the culmination of over 15 years of risk management consulting, research, education and trial and error. When you read about Bob, the fictitious risk manager I use to illustrate some of the concepts, I am essentially talking about myself all of those years ago. If nothing else, these materials should help you avoid making the mistakes I made along the way and save you some reading.\nThe Risk Management Model With accessibility and simplicity in mind, Riskademy’s risk management model is based on three main components – Understand, Address, and Monitor** \u0026amp; Respond**.\nUnderstand – Everything you do to understand the risks your organization faces and how these can affect its objectives.\nAddress – The specific steps taken to minimize downside risks and to maximize opportunities, all aimed at supporting the organization’s objectives.\nMonitor \u0026amp; Respond – Ongoing monitoring to identify any changes to normal operations allows additional controls or response measures to be implemented to address risk events.\nSupporting these three main components are system maintenance activities to keep things running smoothly.\nThis three-part framework keeps things simple and is easier to implement than something with six or seven elements. Despite this brevity, all of the main elements of a risk management system are still represented in this framework, it’s just the structure that is more straightforward.\nThese three components and the maintenance activities are broken down into twelve core elements which provide a foundation for risk management. They can be applied in the majority of situations. These twelve core elements cover the theoretical aspects of risk management, explain the practical application of these concepts and provide additional guidance for the day-to-day maintenance of a risk management programme.\nThis system is designed to be practical, quickly deployable and applicable in organizations without a dedicated staff or significant budget for risk management. Nevertheless, these elements are theoretically sound and adhere to well-recognized principles meaning that this system is scalable, robust and can be integrated into more formal risk management systems at later date.\n12 Core Elements for Risk Management Understand\nKey terms and concepts\nRisk assessments\nRisk communication\nAddress\nAddressing risks\nIntegrating risk management into day-to-day operations\nGovernance and control\nMonitor and Respond\nTrigger monitoring and horizon scanning\nResponse\nRisk management, crisis management and business continuity\nMaintenance\nProgram management\nChange management\nThe risk manager’s role\nThese twelve elements develop the risk management system in a layered fashion, beginning with a theoretical foundation before moving on to practical how-to articles, accompanied by tools and templates to help with implementation.\nFor example, the first module on Understanding contains the following elements:\nWhat Do You Mean By…Risk? – a short essay defining risk and the associated terms\nHow to…conduct a risk assessment – explains the steps in the risk assessment process along with some specific processes to apply\nA risk assessment spreadsheet template – will automate a number of the steps to speed up the assessment process. You just need to supply the info. If you need something more powerful, the DCDR software tool might help.\nRisk management is an enormous subject and each of the topics above could easily keep us busy for months. Moreover, there are all kinds of nooks and crannies we could get lost in but these twelve elements should provide enough to get you started as a risk manager. If you only want to be ‘risk aware’, these core topics might be all you need. The ‘top-twelve’ also provides a solid foundation that can be built on over time for someone just starting out as a risk manager. The only health-warning is to note that the how-to articles and tools assume that you are comfortable with the underlying theory. If you are new to risk management, start with the theoretical elements to put things into context. I found that understanding the theoretical side (which I came to relatively late) really helped me with the practical application. I’m not saying you have to read lots of academic papers to be a risk manager, but you will be a more effective risk manager if you have a good grasp of the theory. On the plus side, having read through a lot of academic and theoretical material myself, I hope I can point you to the most relevant material as early as possible.\nSo that’s the foundation for both the concepts taught in Riskademy and the structure for the training courses themselves. The Risk Management Foundation course will launch in mid- to late 2017 but a shorter, Risk Manager’s Basics course will launch in June to meet the immediate needs of anyone who has to start work on a risk assessment now. Please comment if you think something has been overlooked. After all, this is a resource for people to use so it has to provide what people actually need. Also, use the link below to sign up for more information on course launches and to get access to material prior to open release.\nSign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/03/10/twelve-core-elements-for-risk-management/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eIn the simplest of terms, risk management helps you function in the real world. Organizations are under constant assault from both anticipated and unanticipated events which threaten to derail their plans. Risk management is what helps them understand, prepare for and react to these events. The largest firms will spend thousands of hours and billions of dollars on risk and compliance annually and there are dozens of different standards or methodologies to help guide the risk manager. But what do you do if you are a small organization and there is no money for training or consulting? Or if risk management is the second or third responsibility on your job description – the one you never quite get around to?\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"A Foundation for Risk Management"},{"content":"*Understanding is not the same as having information – it is the process of putting that information into context to work out what it means in a particular situation. We conduct a similar process on a larger scale during the ‘understand’ stage of the risk management process. During this time, we build on our knowledge of an organization to understand the risks it faces. *\nThe term ‘understand’ is both an activity and a stage in our risk management process. As an activity, understanding means relating that information to a situation. Chess is often used as an illustration because I may know the names of the pieces on a chess board and what they can do, but I could still not understand chess. How the pieces interact, the set moves, strategies and how to apply these are all necessary to understand the game. Understanding can be achieved by asking the questions ‘why?’ or ‘so what?’ until you run out of questions.\nThe understand stage in the risk management process is this same activity but on a larger scale. Again, we differentiate between knowing things about an organization, versus assessing that information and putting it into context, allowing us to really understand the entity. As an example, during any assessment interview one of the first questions I ask is ‘what do you do?’. In the majority of cases, the person usually just gives their job title which doesn’t add much to my understanding. Then, if I then follow up with a variation on ‘So what does that role entail?’, the next set of answers will add information and context. This questioning (‘why?’, ‘So what?’) helps move from knowing to understanding.\nAdding context gives us a simple process or formula for understanding. We take information and put it into context to achieve understanding so knowledge + context = understanding. We touched on this when we discussed cause versus effect in the WDYMB…Risk? article. We can know the cause of an event but we need to put this into context and determine the effects to understand the risk it poses. There are more complicated and detailed models for understanding but this knowledge + context = understanding approach is a good start.\nSo that’s the process for developing understanding around a single piece of information but what do we do in the ‘understand’ stage of our risk management process? Obviously, this is much more complex but the underlying principle remains the same: knowledge + context = understanding. Here, understanding means getting to know the organization and in detail and learning about its operating environment and context. Specifically, you will be trying to understand:\nThe organization’s goals and objectives Its structure and individual roles and responsibilities What ‘normal’ looks like The critical processes Risk attitudes, tolerance and appetite The operating environment and likely threats Sensitivities and potential conflicts / road blocks Recent or upcoming changes to ‘normal’ and how these might affect the organization All of these elements can be examined using the *knowledge + context = understanding *approach outlined above. For example, you don’t just want a copy of the organization chart (org chart) to understand the structure. You should begin with the org chart but then start to ask questions – how is that org chart reflected in reality? Are there deviations? Why does department X report to manager Y (Simon) when it looks as though it should belong to manager Z (Jill)? This helps develop a deeper understanding of the organization but also identifies other considerations that might be important later. For example, perhaps Jill was promoted instead of the manager of department X (Tom) who refuses to report to her so Tom now reports to Simon. (You might be surprised how often an anomaly in an organization can be explained by this kind thing.) That explains the deviation but also suggests that 1) the org chart might change if any of these individuals move on and, 2) comments from Tom about Jill might be biased.\nObviously, understanding an entire organization can be daunting and very time-consuming. However, some simple processes and tools can assist you.\nBelow, there are general suggestions that can help achieve understanding in a range of situations. We will look at activity-specific measures in the relevant sections.\nFirst, we should define the task and set some parameters. We need a goal, key objectives, scope and to identify whatever restrictions are in place, particularly time and budget. It is worth posting a mild health warning here as there is often a gap between what someone asks for and what they expect, particularly when it comes to consulting. Any major gaps should be narrowed down during scoping but once a task is underway, you will have to determine how to deal with these on a case-by-case basis. Sometimes a task’s scope will need to be reviewed, perhaps by allocating additional time or resources to meet the requirement. At other times, particularly as a consultant, you will have to swallow hard and go the extra mile to meet the client’s expectations. The one thing that you should avoid changing is the goal or key objective. Adjusting these mid-task will often throw the whole project off.\nAlongside scoping, we need to determine the purpose of the task. We know what we are doing, say a risk assessment, but we also have to understand why. Is the assessment a regular occurrence using an existing process or is it a one-off review of a single project? Is it a post-incident review or just a ‘check-the-box’ exercise for compliance reasons? Each of these situations would fundamentally change the way the assessment is conducted and influence the time and attention the organization is willing to commit.\nReview the parameters and scope to ensure objectives are achievable. If we only have a day to review a whole organization, we can’t get into too much detail but if we have six-months to assess a single project, we can be much more specific. Either of these is a reasonable request if the objectives match the scope and if there are expectations of what will be delivered at the end.\nBalance the amount of information needed versus the amount available, otherwise you run the risk of becoming swamped. Broadly, I would say that more is better as far as information is concerned but that statement needs refinement. To be more accurate, I would say you should have access to as much information as possible. However, be sure to use it selectively to achieve the task in the time available. You need to be able to filter efficiently and read selectively so you can pull what you need from the available information without getting swamped. Learning to speed read is of real benefit here and you will be surprised how quickly you can get a sense of a document and its contents from a quick two-minute scan.\nFinally, you need a set of simple tools to help streamline the process. For example, I have a prepared list of key documents that I send to a client before an assessment and I use standard templates to record my findings during the document review. I also have a structured set of questions for interviews and use the same basic template for writing up both ‘quick and dirty’ assessments and for long, deep dive reviews. For any kind of comparative assessment, such as a risk assessment, develop objective grading-statements beforehand to avoid being influenced by the conditions during the assessment. The most useful tool of all is a set of detailed, well-kept notes. These allow you to quickly find critical information and cross-reference observations without having to wade back through everything you have already read. Make sure you keep a copy as an immediate back-up because you might need to refer to it months or even years later.\nThese suggestions overlap with the characteristics of good project management. They also help us achieve understanding by focusing our attention, clearly defining what it is we are trying to achieve and setting parameters.\nLike the other WDYMB…? articles, this is a high-level overview of the subject. We have now established what we mean by understanding as a process, placing knowledge in context and the main activities of the understand stage of the risk management cycle. The next step will be to apply these ideas to specific activities beginning with the risk assessment itself.\n~Andrew\nSign up to get new articles and news emailed to you directly\n\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/03/03/wdymbunderstanding/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e*Understanding is not the same as having information – it is the process of putting that information into context to work out what it means in a particular situation. We conduct a similar process on a larger scale during the ‘understand’ stage of the risk management process.  During this time, we build on our knowledge of an organization to understand the risks it faces. *\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe term ‘understand’ is both an activity and a stage in our risk management process.  As an activity, understanding means relating that information to a situation.  Chess is often used as an illustration because I may know the names of the pieces on a chess board and what they can do, but I could still not understand chess.  How the pieces interact, the set moves, strategies and how to apply these are all necessary to understand the game.   Understanding can be achieved by asking the questions ‘\u003cem\u003ewhy?\u003c/em\u003e’ or ‘\u003cem\u003eso what?\u003c/em\u003e’ until you run out of questions.\u003c/p\u003e","title":"WDYMB…Understanding?"},{"content":"Risk and risk discussions are often hampered by inconsistent terminology and a high degree of subjectivity. To overcome this, we need to understand what we mean when we ask ‘what is risk?’. This article lays out a concept for risk using the ISO definition – the effect of uncertainty on objectives. It breaks individual risks into their three main components: threat, vulnerability and impact for downside risks or opportunity, and exposure and impact for upside risks. These concepts form the basis for all subsequent risk discussions and lay the groundwork for a risk assessment methodology.\nWhat is Risk? Risk always seems to be a difficult thing to discuss. A lot of this is due to the many different definitions of risk. We often have instances where similar terms are used to mean very different things. Another big issue is that risk is highly subjective and what constitutes an actual risk, differs from person to person[1]. Even if we agree on what risk is conceptually, everyone involved in the discussion will have different examples in mind which will influence their thinking.\nIn a general discussion, this can prove to be frustrating but this is a more serious problem if you are trying to conduct risk-led activities. I have seen hundreds of hours of work wasted because terms were not agreed on at the start of a project. If we want to develop a functioning risk management system, we need to agree on definitions and remove some subjectivity from the discussion.\nDifficulties Defining Risk Unfortunately, answering the question ‘what is risk?’ is not particularly straightforward. The British Royal Society’s report following their 1992 study[2] of risk begins by noting that a consensus was not possible and rather than a single report, the Society would instead publish six independent essays on risk. It is difficult to say whether the experience and knowledge of the study group helped or hindered a consensus but it gives you an idea of how complicated these discussions can be. Given this difficulty, it would be a tall order for me to come up with some great unifying theory of risk.\nLuckily, we don’t need a grand unifying theory. However, we do need a clear definition and a robust framework to underpin the whole of the Understand / Address / Monitor \u0026amp; React[3] process for risk management[4]. That’s what I have laid out below: a simple definition and framework for risk that reflects widely-recognized terms and concepts. This means that the definition and structure will be straightforward to implement and will allow this framework to integrate into other risk management systems. Most importantly, this is an approach that works in practice and is something you can employ in the real world.\nThat’s a lot of introduction so let’s dive in.\nThe ISO Definition of Risk ISO 73 defines risk as “the effect of uncertainty on objectives[5]”. This is pretty simple as definitions go, but the more I have thought about it, the more I like it. It stresses that we are considering the effects of events, not the causes, and how these influence an entity’s objectives rather than simply judging risk by the magnitude of an event. For example, flooding by itself isn’t necessarily a risk. In fact, some farmers rely on flooding to irrigate their crops, therefore we need to consider how floods might effect an organization’s objectives to determine if this poses a risk or not.\nThis definition also highlights that there is a degree of uncertainty involved since the type, time and place of an event cannot be anticipated (although we can sometime make educated guesses). Even if we can anticipate or observe an event, the full effects may not be known for some time. This is a particular issue in tightly coupled, highly integrated systems[6] where the full effects of an event can take some time to emerge.\nFinally, an additional benefit of this definition is that it works for both positive and negative risks. Although risk is often thought of a purely negative concept, A.K.A. downside risk, this ISO definition also allows for the fact that events can create an advantage, an upside risk. Using the same framework for both types of risk allows for like-by-like comparisons which can be very useful from a decision-making perspective.\nAlthough this is a solid start and a robust definition for risk as a concept, this ISO definition doesn’t give us everything we need to develop our risk management system. For that, we need some additional information. What follows is a bottom-up framework for individual risk that still aligns with the ISO definition. This framework is both practical and theoretically sound. With some terminology tweaking, we can use the same framework for downside and upside risks.\nUpside vs. Downside Risk In this framework, risk is comprised of three elements. Negative or downside risks are comprised of a threat, vulnerability and potential impacts. Upside risks are comprised of an opportunity, exposure and the potential impacts. Combined, these three elements explain the risk posed by a particular event. By separating the key components, this framework allows each element to be addressed separately in the risk assessment[7] and risk treatment[8] processes. This helps prepare clear, understandable risk descriptions and more effective risk treatment plans.\nLet’s look at each of these components in more detail.\nThe Three Components of Risk: Threat, Vulnerability and Impact Threats are the type of events which could negatively effect our objectives. Threats are often grouped together in categories for simplicity – e.g. environment, safety, infrastructure – as the same functional team will ‘own’ these threats making management of the process easier. Threat descriptions should stress the effect rather than the cause so instead of listing ‘climate change’ as a potential threat, the threat might be ‘increased frequency of flooding in area x’. Full descriptions should include the potential likelihood and magnitude[9] of a threat. For upside risks, we can call these events opportunities.\nThe second component of a risk is vulnerability, or describing the conditions that allow an event to occur or those that might prevent it. Vulnerabilities exist due to the proximity to a threat, because of inadequate preventative measures or where there are poor or non-existent controls. Conversely, robust controls or separation from a threat will lower vulnerability. Vulnerabilities relate to both physical and non-physical threats, so both poor physical security and weak corporate governance create vulnerabilities. For upside risk we can use the term exposure.\nThreats and vulnerabilities are considered as pre-event factors (left-hand side for those of you risk bow-tie[10] enthusiasts out there) as these create the conditions that allow an event to occur. If an event were to occur, we have to consider its effects and the specific impact on the organization (the right-hand side). Impact is highly contextual and it is not always the immediate effect of the event that is being considered. Instead, we should consider the effect that the event has on the organization’s objectives, which might be a combination of physical effects, reputational damage and loss of market share.\nFor example, compare two warehouse fires. A fire that shuts down an Amazon distribution center in the summer would still be a big incident but is unlikely to affect such a large organization’s overall objectives. Conversely, a fire that destroys a small business’s only warehouse immediately prior to a period of peak demand would have a major, maybe catastrophic, impact. By maintaining an effects-led approach, we ensure that we focus on the impacts on the business, not the event itself.\nDescribing a Risk If we combine these three components, a risk is comprised of an event that poses a threat, vulnerabilities that could allow the negative event to effect the organization and an impact on the organizations objectives. If we combine these into a risk statement you can see how these three elements describe a risk in detail.\nXYZ Co faces a significant risk [severity description] due to the potential for civil unrest in Janwick [threat description] which could severely disrupt our global supply chain as our key manufacturing sites are concentrated there [impact statement and explanation]. The firm is particularly vulnerable in Janwick as our local safety and security arrangements were designed when the country was peaceful and have not been updated to address the deteriorating security situation [vulnerability statement].\nThis gives us a clear explanation of the elements that contribute to this risk and we can start to see how we can target elements of the risk for treatment. This type of statement also aligns closely with the kind of risk statement that would appear in an enterprise risk management (ERM) program[11]. This means that in addition to aligning with the ISO definition of risk, this framework is also something that could be incorporated into an ERM framework at a later stage.\nBenefits of this Approach This approach has several additional benefits.\nThere is no unit for risk so we cannot measure it as such. However, we can use this definition mathematically so risk = threat x vulnerability x impact [12] gives us the basis for quantitative risk assessment. This **r = tvi **formula provides quantitative values that allow us to evaluate, grade and order risks. (Read more about risk grading and metrics here.) In turn this significantly improves our ability to assign priorities and allocate resources to reduce or exploit risks. Again, the same basic formula applies to upside risk where risk = opportunity x exposure x impact (r = oei).\nThe second benefit of this approach is that separating these three components makes it much easier to see where mitigation is possible and what effect different treatments could have. Cost-benefit analyses or return on investment (RoI) calculations can be combined with this approach to determine where resources can be best spent.\nIn the Janwick example above, the changing security situation has rendered the existing safety and security arrangements inadequate. Breakdown of law and order is a function of the state and not something the company can likely influence so treatment could be focussed on reducing vulnerabilities by enhancing security measures or moving manufacturing elsewhere. Alternatively, developing a parallel supply chain as a back up would allow the company to reduce the impact if something did happen.\nFinally, breaking a risk into these three component parts also helps identify the conditions or triggers that can lead to a risk event. These can be monitored to help prompt additional controls or a response to mitigate an event.\nRisk is Subjective As a reminder, it is important to reiterate that risk is particular to the organization. Two entities in the same place and facing the same range of threats may have very different assessments of the overall risk. For example, security companies in Janwick might see unrest as an opportunity creating an upside risk. A local security firm might describe an upside risk as follows:\nSuperior Security Services has a significant opportunity [severity description] due to the potential for civil unrest in Janwick [opportunity description]. This could lead to a significant increase in demand for security guards and protective services which have been limited due to the relative peace that has existed until recently [impact statement and explanation]. We have significant exposure to this market through our existing contacts providing drivers and night watchmen to Janwick’s larger firms which we can leverage to realize this opportunity [exposure statement].\nThis example highlights how the same situation will affect different groups in different ways. It illustrates how the same framework can be used to consider both downside and upside risk.\nHopefully this has helped answer the question ‘what is risk?’. I know that there is a lot in this article but I hope this has cleared up what a risk is conceptually – the effect of uncertainty on objectives – and the elements that make up an individual risk – threat, vulnerability and impact or opportunity, exposure and impact.\nThis now gives us a basis for the Understand / Address / Monitor \u0026amp; Respond framework for both upside and downside risk. Moreover, this framework aligns with the recognized ISO definition and other accepted risk concepts which will help align or incorporate this approach into other systems in the future.\nFootnotes\n[1] This is termed ‘risk perception’ which is something we will look at in more detail subsequently.\n[2] Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management, Warner et al, The Royal Society, London, 1992\n[3] Please read a foundation for risk management before you go any further as this lays out our overall structure for risk management.\n[4] Risk management – the process used to assess and treat risks in order to reduce uncertainty and limit effects.\n[5] ISO 73 – Risk Management Vocabulary\n[6] These give rise to what Perrow calls ‘baffling interactions’. These interactions and the associated issues are part of what gives rise to his normal accident theory. Normal Accidents, Perrow 1999.\n[7] “Risk assessment involves the identification of risks followed by their evaluation or ranking.” ISO 31000 Implementation Guide, AIRMIC, Alarm, The IRM 2010\n[8] Risk treatment – steps taken to mitigate downside risk or to increase upside risk as part of the risk management process.\n[9] Some of you will notice that this description of a threat resembles some simple risk models which are also based on likelihood and impact. This is not based on a desire to make things more complicated but I don’t find this two-factor approach to risk as effective as separating things into the three elements described here. I find the three-element framework more adaptable and effective in the long run.\n[10] The risk bowtie is one method of illustrating a risk with a pre-event cone on the left and a post-event cone on the right, joined by an event node in the center resulting in a bow tie shape.\n[11] ERM refers to a risk management system that is applied through an entire organization.\n[12] There are additional details on the application of this formula mathematically in the risk metrics article.\n","permalink":"https://andrewsheves.com/2017/02/24/what-is-risk/","summary":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eRisk and risk discussions are often hampered by inconsistent terminology and a high degree of subjectivity.  To overcome this, we need to understand what we mean when we ask ‘what is risk?’.  This article lays out a concept for risk using the ISO definition – the effect of uncertainty on objectives.  It breaks individual risks into their three main components: threat, vulnerability and impact for downside risks or opportunity, and exposure and impact for upside risks.  These concepts form the basis for all subsequent risk discussions and lay the groundwork for a risk assessment methodology.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","title":"What is Risk?"}]