Andrew Sheves

Decis is Now Part of Hedron Analytics

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning

I have some bittersweet news to share: yesterday was the last full SITREP.

That’s the bitter part.

The sweet part is that the SITREP is ending because Decis has just been acquired and we are becoming part of Hedron Analytics.

Here’s the official announcement.

I am delighted to announce that Decis Intelligence (Decis) is merging with Hedron Analytics, Inc. (Hedron), a company that shares our values, vision, and commitment to innovation and excellence in helping our customers solve their hardest problems. Hedron’s expertise in advisory services, professional services, and emerging technologies, combined with Decis’ artificial intelligence (AI) decision-support and intelligence capabilities, opens extraordinary opportunities for growth, collaboration, and expanded support for our customers and partners.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

US-China Talks Enter Second Day

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for nearly six hours in Madrid Sunday, discussing TikTok’s looming deadline, trade issues and national security concerns as diplomacy intensifies between the world’s two largest economies. The talks aim to lay groundwork for a potential Trump-Xi Jinping meeting as soon as October during South Korea’s APEC summit, though veteran negotiator Wendy Cutler warned that “agreeing on deliverables for a possible Trump-Xi summit will not be easy” given China’s growing confidence it holds the upper hand. China launched two new investigations targeting US semiconductor companies just before the talks, including an anti-dumping probe on American analog IC chips, shortly after the US added 23 more Chinese firms to its entity list restricting businesses deemed contrary to national security interests. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

Nepal Protest Death Toll Hits 51

Nepal’s anticorruption protest death toll reached 51 including 21 protesters, nine prisoners, and three police officers, while over 12,500 escaped prisoners remain on the run after jailbreaks during the chaos that saw parliament set ablaze and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resign. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki appears set to be appointed interim prime minister as she’s seen as an “anticorruption voice” acceptable to Gen Z protesters, though uncertainty remains whether she can serve without being a parliament member, potentially requiring dissolution of parliament or constitutional changes. The army imposed curfews and recovered over 100 looted guns as shops began reopening Friday with signs of normalcy returning to Kathmandu, while some escaped prisoners reportedly tried crossing into India where border forces apprehended scores, as Nepal faces prolonged political uncertainty in a country wedged between India and China that has struggled with instability since abolishing its monarchy in 2008. More - Al Jazeera

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

Just the regional roundup today

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, East Timor, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Maldives, Singapore, Taiwan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam

Regional News Summary

In Singapore, inflation has eased to 0.6% in July, the lowest since January 2021, driven by declines in food, transport, and housing costs. Economic relief came as the stock market showed resilience. Payment institution 2C2P secured a major Singapore license, while Abaxx facilitated collaboration between the China City Gas Association and Asian partners. SOURCE - CNBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Hamas Claims Leaders Survived Israeli Strike on Doha HQ

Israel conducted a strike on a Hamas residential compound in Qatar’s capital using 15 fighter jets that fired 10 munitions, resulting in five Hamas deaths including the son of chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. Hamas asserted that its negotiating team discussing Trump’s ceasefire proposal survived the operation.

Netanyahu characterized the strike as “fully justified,” targeting individuals involved in organizing the October 7 attack. Qatar condemned what it called a “cowardly” violation of its sovereignty. The White House stated that bombing a sovereign ally “does not advance Israel or America’s goals,” though it acknowledged eliminating Hamas as “worthy.”

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

Nepal Protests Kill 19, Parliament Stormed

At least 19 people died and dozens were injured as police fired live rounds, tear gas and rubber bullets at young protesters demonstrating against Nepal’s social media ban and government corruption, with some forcing their way into Parliament in Kathmandu. Seven victims died at the National Trauma Centre with many shot in the head and chest, while thousands of students in school uniforms held signs reading “Shut down corruption and not social media” as Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli called an emergency cabinet meeting. The UN called for accountability following the bloodshed as analysts said Gen Z frustration with unstable governments, rampant corruption and limited job prospects had reached a “tipping point” after the government blocked Facebook, YouTube and X for failing to register with authorities, prompting what organizers dubbed “demonstrations by Gen Z” demanding change from a generation that “grew up with the optimism and dream of an inclusive new Nepal.”

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Milei Suffers Buenos Aires Landslide Defeat

Argentine President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party suffered a resounding defeat in Buenos Aires province, winning only 34% compared to 47% for the center-left Peronist opposition in a vote seen as a bellwether for October’s national midterms. Milei acknowledged the “clear defeat” but vowed no changes to his free-market economic program while promising “deep self-critique,” as investors brace for losses with the peso already sliding above 1,400 per dollar and bonds underperforming emerging-market peers. The libertarian president faced headwinds including a graft scandal involving alleged kickbacks benefiting his sister Karina, stone-throwing incidents during campaigning, and economic contraction for three straight months with formal job losses since January, while barred former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner celebrated from her balcony under house arrest after her corruption conviction. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning

Israel Intensifies Gaza City Campaign

Israeli forces control 40% of Gaza City as round-the-clock bombing reduces entire neighborhoods to rubble, killing 44 people Thursday including a family of five in a tent strike, with UNICEF calling it a “city of fear” trapping nearly one million residents. Military spokesperson said the operation will “continue to expand and intensify” as satellite images show over 52 Israeli vehicles forcing displacement toward the west, while hospitals overflow with casualties and al-Shifa’s morgue floor is strewn with white-shrouded bodies. US Secretary of State Rubio blamed France and other countries planning Palestinian state recognition for Israeli West Bank abuses, as the US sanctioned three Palestinian rights groups for supporting ICC war crimes investigations against Netanyahu, while EU official Teresa Ribiera called Gaza a “genocide” and criticized the bloc’s inaction as the death toll surpassed 64,000. More - Al Jazeera

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

Putin Vows Military Resolution in Ukraine

Russian President Putin declared Russia will “resolve all our tasks militarily” should Ukraine reject negotiations. Speaking from Beijing after China’s military parade, he rejected ceasefire proposals while suggesting Zelensky “could always go to Moscow”–a proposal Ukraine’s foreign minister deemed “knowingly unacceptable.” Putin reiterated demands for Ukrainian NATO abandonment and cessation of alleged ethnic Russian discrimination, while refusing to cede occupied Donbas territories. Trump stated Putin “knows where I stand” and threatened additional sanctions beyond targeting India for Russian oil purchases. UK Defence Secretary Healey announced 1 billion pounds in seized Russian assets would fund Ukrainian military aid, describing it as “Putin’s dirty money returned with interest.”

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

11 Killed in US Strike on Venezuelan Boat

President Trump announced a US military “kinetic” strike killed 11 people aboard a small boat accused of smuggling drugs from Venezuela for the Tren de Aragua gang, marking the first known attack against alleged drug smugglers since increased Caribbean military deployment began. Trump shared aerial bombing footage on Truth Social warning “anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States” to “BEWARE,” as seven US warships and a nuclear submarine carry over 4,500 sailors and Marines in the region.

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

Maduro Threatens ‘Republic in Arms’

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro stated he would “declare a republic in arms” if attacked by US forces, asserting Washington’s Caribbean naval deployment targets regime change rather than drug trafficking as officially claimed. Maduro alleged the US deployed “eight military ships with 1,200 missiles and a submarine targeting Venezuela,” describing it as “the biggest threat that has been seen on our continent in the last 100 years.” He mobilized troops along borders and activated citizen militias in response.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Suddenly, it’s September. Happy Labor Day to folks in the USA and Happy Independence Day to readers in Uzbekistan

Earthquake hits Afghanistan

A significant earthquake hit Afghanistan early Monday morning (local). Details are sparse at the time of writing, but the BBC has a live tracker here.

Kashmir Floods Kill Dozens

At least 40 people died and scores were injured as torrential rains triggered major landslides and flash floods in Indian-administered Kashmir, with Jammu recording its heaviest-ever 24-hour rainfall of 380mm that devastated communities and knocked out telecommunications. Most victims were Hindu pilgrims visiting the popular Vaishno Devi temple in Katra, while floods swept away bridges on the Tawi river and forced evacuation of over 5,000 people as the region’s main land route temporarily shut due to landslides. Environmental experts blamed poor resource management including felling a million trees and construction on floodplains for amplifying threats, with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah criticizing authorities for failing to implement flood mitigation measures since devastating 2014 floods that left residents haunted by memories of apocalyptic destruction. More - Al Jazeera

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic Of The Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, The Gambia, Togo, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period.

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

As a reminder, it’s just the regional news summaries this week while I’m out on leave.

Asia Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Vietnam

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

Bhutan, Brunei, China, East Timor, Japan, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Singapore, Uzbekistan

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

Albania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

Andorra, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia

Regional News Summary

Switzerland faces economic strain from U.S. trade tensions and tariffs. The nation experienced significant gold export increases in July as firms seek value preservation. Switzerland and Austria have proposed hosting negotiations between Putin and Ukrainian leadership to resolve the ongoing conflict. NATO defense officials are simultaneously evaluating security arrangements for Ukraine through virtual consultations.

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

As a reminder, it’s just the ratings and regional news summaries this week while I’m on leave.

Americas Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Saint Lucia, Suriname, The Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, United States Of America, Venezuela

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

As a reminder, it’s just the ratings and news summaries this week while I’m on leave.

Global Stability Ratings

Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.

Afghanistan is Critically Unstable, Albania is Weak, Algeria is Weak, Andorra is Stable, Angola is Weak, Antigua and Barbuda is Stable, Argentina is Weak, Armenia is Weak, Australia is Stable, Austria is Stable, Azerbaijan is Stable, Bahrain is Weak, Bangladesh is Weak, Barbados is Stable, Belarus is Unstable, Belgium is Stable, Belize is Weak, Benin is Weak, Bhutan is Weak, Bolivia is Unstable, Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak, Botswana is Weak, Brazil is Weak, Brunei is Stable, Bulgaria is Weak, Burkina Faso is Unstable, Burundi is Weak, Cambodia is Weak, Cameroon is Weak, Canada is Stable, Cape Verde is Stable, Central African Republic is Unstable, Chad is Unstable, Chile is Stable, China is Stable, Colombia is Weak, Comoros is Weak, Costa Rica is Stable, Croatia is Stable, Cuba is Weak, Cyprus is Weak, Czech Republic is Stable, Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable, Denmark is Stable, Djibouti is Weak, Dominica is Weak, Dominican Republic is Weak, East Timor is Stable, Ecuador is Weak, Egypt is Weak, El Salvador is Weak, Equatorial Guinea is Unstable, Eritrea is Weak, Estonia is Stable, Eswatini is Weak, Ethiopia is Unstable, Fiji is Stable, Finland is Stable, France is Stable, Gabon is Weak, Georgia is Weak, Germany is Weak, Ghana is Stable, Greece is Weak, Grenada is Stable, Guatemala is Weak, Guinea is Unstable, Guinea-Bissau is Unstable, Guyana is Weak, Haiti is Unstable, Honduras is Unstable, Hungary is Weak, Iceland is Stable, India is Weak, Indonesia is Weak, Iran is Weak, Iraq is Unstable, Ireland is Weak, Israel is Weak, Italy is Weak, Jamaica is Weak, Japan is Stable, Jordan is Weak, Kazakhstan is Weak, Kenya is Weak, Kuwait is Stable, Laos is Weak, Latvia is Stable, Lebanon is Unstable, Libya is Unstable, Liechtenstein is Stable, Lithuania is Stable, Luxembourg is Highly Stable, Malaysia is Stable, Mali is Unstable, Malta is Stable, Mexico is Weak, Moldova is Weak, Monaco is Stable, Mongolia is Stable, Morocco is Stable, Mozambique is Unstable, Myanmar is Unstable, Namibia is Stable, Nepal is Weak, Netherlands is Stable, New Zealand is Stable, Nicaragua is Unstable, Niger is Unstable, Nigeria is Unstable, North Korea is Unstable, Norway is Stable, Oman is Stable, Pakistan is Weak, Panama is Stable, Peru is Weak, Philippines is Stable, Poland is Stable, Portugal is Stable, Qatar is Stable, Romania is Stable, Russia is Unstable, Rwanda is Stable, Saudi Arabia is Weak, Senegal is Stable, Serbia is Unstable, Singapore is Stable, Slovakia is Stable, Slovenia is Stable, Somalia is Unstable, South Africa is Weak, South Korea is Stable, South Sudan is Critically Unstable, Spain is Weak, Sri Lanka is Weak, Sudan is Unstable, Sweden is Stable, Switzerland is Stable, Syria is Critically Unstable, Taiwan is Stable, Tanzania is Stable, Thailand is Weak, Turkey is Weak, Ukraine is Unstable, United Arab Emirates is Stable, United Kingdom is Stable, United States Of America is Stable, Uruguay is Stable, Uzbekistan is Stable, Venezuela is Unstable, Vietnam is Stable, Yemen is Critically Unstable, Zambia is Stable, Zimbabwe is Weak

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Lebanon Begins Disarming Palestinian Camps

Lebanon launched a plan to disarm Palestinian groups in refugee camps, starting with weapons handovers from Burj al-Barajneh camp in Beirut as part of a wider disarmament campaign expected across all camps nationwide. More - Al Jazeera

Russia Launches Heaviest Bombardment in Weeks

Russia fired 574 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine in one of the heaviest bombardments in weeks. More - BBC

EU-US Detail Trade Deal Next Steps

The US and EU formalized plans for their trade pact with specific benchmarks for European tariff reductions. More - Bloomberg

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning

Russia Demands Role in Ukraine Security Talks

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that discussing Ukraine security guarantees without Moscow’s participation is a “road to nowhere.” More - Al Jazeera

Israel Begins Gaza City Assault

Israeli forces launched “preliminary actions” for a planned assault on Gaza City. More - BBC

Asia and Oceania Stability Ratings and News Summary

Asia More Unstable

Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Modi Welcomes China Ties as US Criticism Escalates

Indian Prime Minister Modi welcomed improved China relations and announced his first visit to China in seven years. More - Bloomberg

Israel Rejects Ceasefire Plan: Demands All Hostages Released

Israel is demanding the release of all 50 Gaza hostages rather than accepting a new 60-day ceasefire proposal that Hamas approved. More - BBC

Europe and MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

Europe More Unstable

Albania, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US Revokes 6,000 Student Visas, Hamas Accepts Gaza Truce Proposal, US-Europe Summit Yields Ukraine Security Plan

Good morning,

🇺🇸 US Revokes 6,000 Student Visas

The State Department revoked over 6,000 international student visas for violations including assault, DUI, burglary and “support for terrorism,” with about 4,000 revoked for breaking US law and 200-300 for terrorism-related activities. The crackdown comes as the Trump administration targets international students, requiring social media account disclosure for enhanced screening to identify “hostility toward US citizens, culture, or institutions” and those supporting “designated foreign terrorists.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “thousands” of visas have been rescinded since January with more planned, while Democrats criticized the effort as attacking due process, affecting a population of over 1.1 million international students from 210+ countries enrolled in US colleges. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit, Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal, Pakistan Floods Kill 337

Good morning.

🇺🇦 Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit

Ukrainian President Zelensky faces an “impossible bind” ahead of Monday’s Washington talks with Trump: risk the US president’s wrath or accept territorial concessions for vague security guarantees that could enable Russia’s return in years to come. After Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin bypassed ceasefire demands and embraced “land swaps,” Zelensky must navigate memories of February’s bitter White House exchange that briefly halted military aid while seeking clarity on security guarantees and trilateral meeting timing. Trump’s special envoy suggested the US could offer “Article 5-like language” to Ukraine, but details remain unclear as Zelensky reaffirmed he won’t “give up territory or trade land” despite softening Ukrainian public support and mounting casualties from intensified Russian attacks. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 15 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Smotrich Vows Settlement Push, China’s Economy Weakens, Pressure on Russia’s Economy

Good morning.

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Smotrich Vows Settlement Push

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich revived the long-shelved E1 Plan to build 3,000 houses near Jerusalem, vowing it will “bury the idea of a Palestinian state” as over a dozen countries prepare to recognize Palestine in September. The settlement would split East Jerusalem from the West Bank by expanding Ma’ale Adumim between Jerusalem and the Dead Sea, effectively dividing Palestinian territory into northern and southern sections. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas condemned the plan as “a breach of international law” that “undermines the two-state solution,” while Israeli NGO Peace Now warned the government is “driving us forward at full speed” toward “an abyss” as construction could begin within a year if fast-tracked approvals proceed. More - Financial Times

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Children Dying of Hunger in Darfur, Oil Near Two-Month Low on Oversupply Fears, rump Promises Trilateral Meeting If Putin Summit ‘Goes Ok’

Good morning

🇸🇩 Children Dying of Hunger in Darfur

Children are dying of starvation in Sudan’s besieged city of el-Fasher as prices have soared so dramatically that money for a week’s worth of meals now buys only one, with community kitchens serving animal feed residue to desperate families. The BBC obtained rare footage showing the 14-month RSF blockade has created catastrophic conditions where doctors report over 60 malnutrition deaths last week, with severely malnourished children “just waiting for their death” in hospitals lacking therapeutic food supplies. International aid groups condemned the “calculated use of starvation as a weapon of war” as cholera spreads through displaced person camps, while humanitarian convoys remain blocked despite UN appeals for access to the trapped population. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 13 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Zelensky Rejects Donbas Concession, Iran Arrested 21,000 During Israel War

Good morning.

🇺🇦 Zelensky Rejects Donbas Concession

Ukrainian President Zelensky ruled out ceding the Donbas region to Russia in any peace deal, warning it would create “a bridgehead for Russians to prepare an offensive” ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Zelensky said Ukraine would reject proposals to surrender parts of Donbas despite Russian forces making a sudden 10km advance near Dobropillia, which he claimed was timed to create an “information space” showing “Russia is moving forward while Ukraine is losing.” The Ukrainian leader expressed frustration at being excluded from the Alaska summit, calling the location choice a “personal victory” for Putin who is “coming out of isolation” by meeting on US territory, while warning any agreements without Kyiv’s involvement would be “dead decisions.” More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Zelenskyy: Putin Planning ‘New Offensive’, Nigerian Troops Kill 100+ ‘Bandits’

Good morning,

Apologies for the formatting issue with some versions of yesterday’s SITREP.

🇺🇦 Zelenskyy: Putin Planning ‘New Offensive’

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned that Putin is preparing for “new offensive operations” rather than a ceasefire, despite Friday’s scheduled Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, saying intelligence reports show Russia redeploying troops for further assaults. Zelenskyy rejected Trump’s suggestion of “land swapping,” stating “concessions do not persuade a killer” as 26 European leaders stressed Ukraine’s right to “choose its own destiny” and that borders “must not be changed by force.” The warnings come as Trump said he would know “in the first two minutes” whether progress with Putin was possible, while the Institute for the Study of War noted Moscow isn’t preparing its public for anything short of “full victory in Ukraine.” More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory ‘On Table’, Four Al Jazeera Journalists Killed by IDF, Uganda Denies Besigye Bail in Treason Case

Good morning.

🇺🇦 NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory ‘On Table’

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska may open negotiations about Ukrainian territory, suggesting Ukraine could acknowledge Russia’s de facto control without formal sovereignty recognition. Rutte’s comments come as European leaders conduct “frenetic rounds” of virtual meetings to devise strategy before Friday’s summit, fearing Ukraine could be pressured into accepting significant territorial losses. Vice President JD Vance expects a “very simple” outcome based on current battle lines, while Zelensky maintains Ukraine “won’t - and constitutionally can’t - cede territory,” warning against accepting Putin’s “spin” on negotiations as European officials reaffirm that “international borders must not be changed by force.” More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Plans Gaza City Occupation, Europe Seeks Rare Earth Independence

Good morning.

🇵🇸 Israel Plans Gaza City Occupation

Israel’s security cabinet approved Prime Minister Netanyahu’s plan for military occupation of Gaza City, marking a major escalation that will force tens of thousands of starving residents to evacuate by October 7. An Israeli official said the operation involves displacing “all Palestinian civilians from Gaza City to the central camps” while imposing a siege on Hamas militants and launching a ground offensive. UK Prime Minister Starmer called the plan “wrong,” saying it “will only bring more bloodshed,” while Hamas accused Netanyahu of abandoning hostages to serve his “personal interests and extremist ideological agenda” as nearly 200 Palestinians have died from starvation in the famine-stricken territory. More - Al Jazeera

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump-Putin-Zelensky Summit Planned, Trump Plans 100% Chip Tariffs

🇺🇦 Trump, Putin, Zelensky Talks Planned

President Trump said there’s a “good chance” he could meet with Putin and Zelensky after calling talks between his envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian leader “very good,” though he provided no details on timing or conditions. The Kremlin described the Moscow discussions as “constructive” with both sides exchanging “signals,” while the White House said Russia expressed desire to meet Trump who remains “open to meeting with both leaders.” The optimism comes despite muted expectations for Friday’s ceasefire deadline, with Trump simultaneously imposing an additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil and Russia continuing large-scale air attacks on Ukraine including a deadly strike on a Zaporizhzhia holiday camp. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Russia Considers Air Truce Offer, Reports: Netanyahu Plans Full Gaza Reoccupation, BLS Worries Threaten $2 Trillion Treasuries Market, Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Amid Lebanon Push

Good morning.

🇺🇦 Russia Considers Air Truce Offer

Russia is weighing an air truce with Ukraine as a potential concession to Trump ahead of US envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit this week, though Moscow remains determined to continue the war without a general ceasefire. The proposal could involve pausing drone and missile strikes as a deescalation gesture, provided Ukraine also agrees, as Putin seeks to avoid threatened secondary sanctions while his forces continue battlefield advances. Trump has grown frustrated with Putin’s refusal to agree to ceasefire during six phone calls since February, threatening heavy tariffs on countries buying Russian oil starting Friday, while Belarus President Lukashenko publicly raised the “air truce” concept during recent remarks with Putin. More - Bloomberg

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike, Brazil Orders Bolsonaro House Arrest, DRC-Rwanda Economic Framework Agreed

Good morning,

🇮🇳 Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike

President Trump vowed to “substantially raise” tariffs on Indian exports beyond the current 25% rate over India’s purchases of Russian oil, saying New Delhi profits from reselling discounted Russian crude on global markets. India’s foreign ministry slammed the targeting as “unjustified and unreasonable,” noting it began buying Russian oil after traditional supplies were diverted to Europe and the US “encouraged such imports.” The escalation comes ahead of Trump’s August 8 deadline for Russia to reach a Ukraine truce, with secondary sanctions threatened against countries buying Russian energy as India has become a major buyer at 1.7 million barrels daily. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger, Colombian Ex-President Uribe SentencedEl Salvador Scraps Term Limits

Good morning.

🛢️OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger

OPEC+ completed a two-year oil strategy chapter by approving a final 547,000 barrel-per-day production increase, reversing massive 2023 supply cuts one year ahead of schedule to reclaim market share. The group left traders uncertain about another 1.66 million barrels daily that remain offline until 2026, with delegates saying “all options remain on the table” including further increases, pausing, or even reversing recent policy. With oil futures down 6.7% this year near $70 and forecasters predicting a slide toward $60, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ will likely pause output increases as global markets face a projected 2 million barrel-per-day surplus in Q4. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect, US Envoy Visits Gaza Aid Sites

Good morning and happy August.

🇺🇸 Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect

Trump’s tariff blitz pushed average US levies to 15% - roughly six times higher than a year ago and the steepest since the 1930s - with rates ranging from 10% baseline to punitive levels like 39% for Switzerland. Bloomberg Economics estimates the tariff hike could cut US GDP by 1.8% and lift core prices by 1.1% over two to three years, creating a “serious demand shock” for the global economy according to former IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan. Markets responded more mutedly than April’s initial shock, but economists warn greater pass-through to US consumers lies ahead as the “universal” nature of tariffs makes it harder for exporters to absorb costs. More - Bloomberg

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine parliament votes to restore anti-corruption agencies, Sudan Camp Children Die From Hunger, Trump’s Tariff Deadline Frenzy

Andrew Sheves Good morning

🇺🇦 Ukraine parliament votes to restore anti-corruption agencies

This story is just breaking at the time of writing. Read more on Al Jazeera

🇸🇩** Sudan Camp Children Die From Hunger**

Thirteen children died last month from severe food shortages at Lagawa displacement camp in Sudan’s East Darfur state, medics reported, as famine spreads through the war-torn region. The Sudan Doctors Network documented “deteriorating humanitarian conditions” and widespread malnutrition at the camp housing 7,000 people, which has faced repeated attacks by armed groups. The deaths highlight Sudan’s deepening humanitarian crisis after 27 months of civil war between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, with nearly a million people now in famine conditions and cholera outbreaks spreading in Darfur. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 30 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum, UK to Recognize Palestine by September, Pacific Tsunami Alert After Russia Quake

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇦** Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum**

Russian forces killed 25 people in overnight strikes on Ukraine, including 17 inmates when glide bombs hit Bilenke prison and three people at a Kamianske hospital including a 23-year-old pregnant woman named Diana. The attacks come as Trump toughened his truce ultimatum to Russia, reducing the previous 50-day deadline issued to Putin earlier this month during his UK visit. Ukraine’s human rights commissioner called the prison attack a gross violation of humanitarian law, while five more people were killed in Kharkiv region as villagers gathered for humanitarian aid near a local shop that was destroyed by rocket fire. More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Thailand Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach, “Worst Case” Famine in Gaza: UN

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇹🇭 🇰🇭** Thailand Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach**

Thailand accused Cambodia of violating a hours-old ceasefire just after it took effect at midnight Tuesday, though Cambodia said there were “no armed clashes” since the truce began following intense fighting up to the deadline. The ceasefire followed escalating border conflict that began in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed, intensifying last week after five Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine and Cambodia fired rockets into Thailand killing civilians. The truce was brokered by Malaysia after Trump threatened to halt tariff negotiations until the Southeast Asian neighbors stopped fighting, with both sides agreeing to pull back armies and accept independent monitoring.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇹🇼** Taiwan Recall Election Fails, Boosts China**

All 24 Kuomintang lawmakers survived recall elections in Taiwan, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party and preserving the opposition’s 62-51 legislative majority that blocks defense spending increases. The landslide defeat hands Beijing new ammunition to claim Lai lacks popular support, with China’s Taiwan Affairs Office saying the results show the DPP’s “political manipulation” lacks backing. Analysts warn the outcome may embolden Beijing’s pressure campaign while removing incentives for opposition lawmakers to moderate positions on military spending that Trump has demanded Taiwan increase for US protection. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse, Thai-Cambodia Conflict Explainer

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse**

French President Macron announced France will recognize Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September, making it the largest European country to do so amid growing anger over Israel’s Gaza war that has killed 59,587 Palestinians. Separately, US envoy Steve Witkoff withdrew from Gaza ceasefire talks, accusing Hamas of showing “a lack of desire” to reach agreement, while Israel also recalled its negotiating team from Qatar. Hamas expressed surprise at the US withdrawal and affirmed its commitment to continue negotiations, as at least 115 Palestinians have died from malnutrition since October with aid groups warning of “mass starvation.”

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine Protests Over Corruption Changes, Brazil Joins ICJ Genocide Case

Andrew Sheves Good morning

🇺🇦** Ukraine Protests Over Corruption Changes**

Thousands of Ukrainians protested in Kyiv and other cities after President Zelensky signed a law stripping anti-corruption bodies NABU and SAP of their independence, marking the largest anti-government demonstrations since Russia’s 2022 invasion. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen demanded “explanations” from Ukraine’s government, with her spokesman warning there “cannot be a compromise” on rule of law standards for EU candidate countries. Critics see the move as a return to pre-2014 corruption under pro-Russian President Yanukovych, potentially undermining Ukraine’s EU integration prospects that many feel they’re paying for with Russian bloodshed. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza, Trump Strikes Trade Deal with Japan, Philippines

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza**

At least 15 Palestinians, including four children, starved to death in a single day in Gaza, bringing the total malnutrition deaths since Israel’s war began to 101, with 80 of them children. 600,000 people are estimated to be malnourished as Israel continues to prevent food deliveries into the Strip. UN Secretary-General Guterres called Gaza a “horror show with a level of death and destruction without parallel in recent times,” with nearly 88% of the territory now under Israeli displacement orders or militarized zones, forcing 2.3 million people into ever-shrinking space. More - Al Jazeera

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 22 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Microsoft SharePoint Cyberattack, WHO Condemns Israeli Attacks on Gaza Facilities, Pakistan Monsoon Deaths, Damage Increase

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🪲** Microsoft SharePoint Cyberattack**

Hackers exploited a security flaw in Microsoft SharePoint software to breach governments, businesses and organizations globally, stealing sensitive information including sign-in credentials and usernames. Multiple government systems were compromised including the US Department of Education, Florida’s Department of Revenue, Rhode Island General Assembly, and national governments in Europe and the Middle East. Over 10,000 companies with on-premise SharePoint servers are at risk, with researchers identifying at least 50 successful breaches across North America, South America, EU, South Africa and Australia, making it “a dream for ransomware operators” due to SharePoint’s deep integration with Microsoft’s platform. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan, Bedouins Threaten to Resume Syria Fighting, Iran Holds Nuclear Talks Friday

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇪🇺** EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan**

EU envoys will meet this week to formulate measures responding to a possible no-deal scenario with Trump, whose tariff position has hardened ahead of the August 1 deadline. The US now wants near-universal tariffs above 10% on EU goods with fewer exemptions, up from the bloc’s hoped-for framework, as negotiations continue with limited progress. The EU has prepared €21 billion in immediate countermeasures targeting politically sensitive US states and an additional €72 billion list including Boeing aircraft, US cars and bourbon whiskey, while considering activating its anti-coercion instrument that could impose new taxes on US tech giants. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61, Israel Strikes Gaza Catholic Church, Weekend Diversions

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇶** Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61**

A fire at a week-old shopping center in Kut, Iraq killed 61 people with many still missing after an air conditioner explosion triggered the blaze. Survivors described being trapped as the fire spread rapidly through the mall, which lacked proper fire extinguishing systems according to witnesses who lost family members. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani ordered an immediate investigation as the tragedy highlights Iraq’s persistent safety standard problems, following similar deadly fires including a 2023 wedding party blaze that killed over 100 people and a 2021 hospital fire that claimed more than 90 lives. More - BBC

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

USAID Will Destroy Food for 30,000, US Announces Syria De-escalation

Andrew Sheves 🇺🇸** USAID Will Destroy Food for 30,000 Kids**

Nearly 500 tonnes of high-energy biscuits intended to feed 27,000 starving children in Afghanistan and Pakistan will be incinerated after expiring in a Dubai warehouse following Trump’s closure of USAID. Deputy Secretary of State Michael Rigas called the waste “a casualty of the shutdown of USAID,” which closed July 1, leaving over 60,000 tonnes of food aid stuck worldwide. The $793,000 worth of expired fortified wheat biscuits will cost an additional $100,000 to destroy, despite lawmakers warning officials in March about the potential waste as 319 million people face limited food access globally. More - Al Jazeera

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Bombs Syrian Forces, Philippines AI Disinformation Surge

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇸🇾** Israel Bombs Syrian Forces**

Israel bombed Syrian government forces entering Druze city Suweida after deadly sectarian clashes killed at least 200 people since Sunday, with Prime Minister Netanyahu saying he ordered strikes to prevent their use “against the Druze.” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused government forces of summary executions of 19 Druze civilians and systematic looting after entering the city under a ceasefire agreement. The Trump administration reportedly asked Israel to cease strikes, while Syria condemned Israeli involvement as violations continue despite a declared ceasefire between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes. More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

China’s Economy Beats Expectations, Trump Threatens Russia Tariffs, Druze-Bedouin Clashes Kill 99 in Syria

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇨🇳 China’s Economy Beats Expectations

China’s economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter, beating forecasts as strong factory output and exports to non-US markets offset weak domestic consumption. Industrial production surged 6.8% in June while retail sales disappointed at 4.8%, highlighting the persistent imbalance between strong supply and weak domestic demand. Despite a 24% slump in US shipments, overall exports rose as government subsidies and fiscal stimulus supported growth, providing Beijing breathing room ahead of potential tariff escalation when the current US trade truce ends in mid-August. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

EU Tariff Cooperation Plans, Gaza Children Killed in Water Queue, Trump Promises Ukraine Patriots, Former Nigerian President Buhari Dies

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇪🇺** EU Plans Increased Cooperation With Tariff-Hit Nations**

The EU is preparing to step up engagement with other countries hit by Trump’s tariffs, including potential coordination with Canada and Japan, as talks with the US remain stuck on cars and agriculture. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen extended suspension of €21 billion in countermeasures until August 1, while preparing €72 billion in additional penalties if negotiations fail. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump’s proposed 30% EU tariff would lower eurozone GDP by 1.2% through 2026, as the bloc seeks deals capped at 10% on agricultural exports while focusing talks on automotive tariffs. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed, Saudis Breach OPEC+ Quota

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇷** Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed**

A senior Israeli official said intelligence indicates much of Iran’s enriched uranium is buried at Isfahan and could potentially be recovered, though any attempt would likely be detected and prompt renewed Israeli strikes. The assessment contradicts Trump’s repeated claims that US strikes “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities, while IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said parts of the targeted sites are “still standing.” Iran’s President Pezeshkian confirmed the facilities were “severely damaged” with no current access, though Israel believes the nuclear program was set back two years overall. More - BBC

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs, Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks

Andrew Sheves 🇺🇸** Trump Announces Big Brazil, Copper and Pharma Tariffs**

President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil over its prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, calling the coup attempt case a “witch hunt” in the most extreme example yet of weaponizing trade policy for unrelated demands. Brazil’s President Lula fired back saying his nation won’t be “tutored” and threatened reciprocal measures, while the real plummeted 2.9% against the dollar. Trump also announced 30% tariffs on Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, plus floated 50% duties on copper products and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals if companies don’t shift production to the US within a year. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation, Tunisia Jails Opposition Leaders

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation**

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the military to prepare a plan to move all 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza into a “humanitarian city” built on Rafah’s ruins, initially housing 600,000 people who would not be allowed to leave after security screening. An Israeli human rights lawyer condemned it as “an operational plan for a crime against humanity” involving population transfer in preparation for deportation. Netanyahu endorsed Trump’s proposal for the US to take over post-war Gaza and permanently resettle Palestinians elsewhere, while Arab states have categorically rejected any displacement as “ethnic cleansing.” More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks, 11 Killed in Kenya Protests, Trump Extends Tariff Deadline

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🛢️ Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks

Oil steadied near $69 per barrel as traders focused on potential fallout from Trump’s new tariffs and escalating Red Sea attacks, with Brent holding gains after Monday’s 1.9% advance despite OPEC+ announcing larger-than-expected supply increases for August. A second vessel was targeted near Yemen hours after Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for an earlier ship attack, raising Middle East tensions despite the fragile Israel-Iran truce. Trump announced tariffs starting August 1 on Japan, South Korea and other partners but suggested negotiations remain possible, while diesel markets show tightness with US stockpiles at lowest seasonal levels since 1996. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Red Sea Attack, Russia Recognizes Taliban Government

Andrew Sheves 🚢** Red Sea Attack**

A commercial vessel in the Red Sea came under attack from small boats firing rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons, forcing the crew to abandon the burning ship as it took on water. The Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas was struck by four unmanned surface vehicles 94km southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah port in an attack matching the “established Houthi target profile.” The incident threatens to escalate Red Sea tensions at a sensitive moment as Gaza ceasefire talks continue and Iran considers restarting nuclear negotiations. More - Al Jazeera

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 04 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts, Trump Sets August Tariff Start

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Happy Birthday America 🇺🇸

🇺🇦** Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts**

Russia launched a record 550 drones and 11 missiles against Ukraine overnight, with 72 penetrating air defenses and hitting almost every district of Kyiv, killing at least one woman and wounding 23 people just hours after a “disappointing” call between Trump and Putin. More - BBC

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Breaking: Ferry Sinks Off Bali, US Claims 1-2 Year Setback to Iran Nuclear Program, Trump Demands Fed Chair Quit

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇩** Breaking: Ferry Sinks Off Bali**

Dozens missing after ferry carrying 65 people sinks off Indonesia’s Bali. Live Tracker - Al Jazeera

🇮🇷** US Claims 1-2 Year Setback to Iran Nuclear Program**

Pentagon officials said US airstrikes set back Iran’s nuclear program by one to two years, backing Trump’s claims the facilities were “completely obliterated” despite earlier Defense Intelligence Agency assessments suggesting only months of delay. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the strikes at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz degraded Iran’s physical capability to construct a bomb, though the location of Iran’s 409-kilogram near-bomb-grade uranium inventory remains unknown. Iran has cut communication with IAEA officials and formally ended inspections after the June strikes. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump Won’t Delay Tariff Deadline, Thai PM Suspended, Israel Kills 109 in Gaza While Trump Promises to be ‘Firm’

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇸** Trump Won’t Delay Tariff Deadline**

President Trump ruled out extending his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume, threatening to impose duties on several nations despite ongoing negotiations. So far, only the UK and China have put trade frameworks in place and no deals have been formalized, despite the 90-day delay. Trump criticized Japan, particularly for not accepting US rice exports, and said he would impose 30-35% tariffs due to trade imbalances, calling the country “very spoiled” and doubting a deal will be reached. Markets reacted with the S&P 500 dropping 14 points on the news, while Trump sounded more optimistic about finalizing a trade agreement with India within days. More - Bloomberg

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

European Heat Wave, Iran Refuses IAEA Inspection

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇪🇺** European Heat Wave ‘Unprecedented’**

France issued red alerts for 16 regions including Paris as “unprecedented” heat grips Europe, with 84 of 96 mainland regions under warnings and nearly 200 schools closed. Spain and Portugal recorded their hottest June days ever at 46 °C and 46.6 °C respectively, while 21 Italian cities, including Rome, are on the highest alert with hospitals reporting 10% more heatstroke cases. The extreme temperatures have sparked wildfires across Turkey, Croatia and Greece, forced evacuations, and lowered Rhine River levels, disrupting cargo shipping. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel’s Gaza Campaign Grinds On

Andrew Sheves Comment - I haven’t included an update on Gaza every day, but the summary below is sadly not unusual. Between 50 and 100 people are being killed daily, and many more are injured in the ongoing campaign. Meanwhile, a grotesque real-life Hunger Games is taking place, requiring people to run a ‘free fire’ gauntlet to reach food distribution sites.

Peace talks are ongoing, but the gulf between the parties remains significant and the desire to genuinely reach a deal is questionable.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US-China Trade Deal

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

It’s a slimmed-down SITREP today from the woods of North Carolina so just the regional summary and one story of note. Normal service will resume on Monday.

US China Trade Deal Finalized

The US and China signed a trade understanding two days ago that codifies terms from Geneva talks, with China committing to deliver rare earth materials in exchange for US lifting export restrictions. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal removes US “countermeasures” on ethane, chip software and jet engines once rare earth shipments begin flowing. Trump plans to finalize trade deals with 10 major partners by his July 9 deadline to reinstate higher tariffs, sorting countries into “proper buckets” based on negotiation outcomes. More - Bloomberg

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump Announces Iran Talks, Kenya Protests Kill 16, Injure Hundreds

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇸** 🇮🇷 Trump Announces Iran Talks**

President Trump said the US will meet with Iran next week but questioned the need for a nuclear agreement, claiming American bombing “obliterated” key atomic sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. Trump declared the Middle East conflict “over” as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held for a second day, though he disputed Pentagon intelligence that the strikes only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months. Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed nuclear installations were “badly damaged” while parliament approved suspending IAEA cooperation until sites are secured. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Conflict Latest, Trump Rejects DIA Iran Strike Assessment, Gaza Aid ‘Death Trap’,

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Admin note: I am traveling for the next few days so the SITREPS will be slimmed down for the remainder of the week.

As a reminder, you can access country reports anytime through your workspace account or via the Chrome extension.

🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Latest**

This will be the last daily summary of the conflict unless the ceasefire breaks down

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Ceasefire, Niger Nationalizes Uranium Mine, India Blames Pakistan for Kashmir Attack

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Ceasefire / Conflict Update**

⚠️ As of writing at 05:30ET, there are reports that Iran just fired two missiles at Israel, reports that Iran’s State media has denied. The IDF has vowed that Israel will retaliate “with force” so there may be some last-minute confusion and exchange of fire before the ceasefire fully holds.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Conflict Update, Syria Church Bombing Kills 22, Niger Army Base Attacked

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Update**

Yesterday’s revised analysis following the US strikes is here

Key Military Developments

US Airstrikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites:

The United States conducted overnight strikes on June 22 targeting three key Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. The attacks used B-2 stealth bombers equipped with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles1 2 3.

SYNTHESIZED INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: ISRAEL-IRAN CONFLICT FOLLOWING US INTERVENTION

Sun, 22 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Decis Analysis Dated June 22 2025

Good morning - here’s the latest synthesized analysis of the situation in the Middle East. There’s a separate investment memo available - please email me if you would like a copy.

Reminder, this is the initial analysis of a very dynamic situation conducted by AI. See the end of the report for full disclosures.

CURRENT SITUATION

Here is a detailed update on the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict over the last 24 hours (June 21–22, 2025), based on the most recent credible sources:

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Latest Events, DRC - Rwanda Peace Draft, Mexico Cleans Up After Hurricane,

Andrew Sheves Good morning

Latest Developments in the Israel-Iran Conflict (June 19–20, 2025)

Direct Military Actions

Major Missile Attack on Hospital in Israel: On June 19, Iran launched a significant missile barrage against Israel, with a direct strike on Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, southern Israel. The attack left the hospital burning and resulted in at least 65 injuries. Overall, Iranian missile attacks since June 13 have killed 24 Israelis and wounded more than 800[1][3].

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Latest Update on the Israel-Iran Conflict

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Apologies for the late SITREP

Latest Update Israel-Iran Conflict (June 18–19, 2025)

Escalation and Military Developments

On June 18 and 19, the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified notably. Iran launched a new wave of missiles targeting central and southern Israel, inflicting significant damage on key infrastructure, including a direct hit on Soroka Hospital. This attack was part of an escalating cycle of retaliatory strikes between the two nations[1].

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Conflict Lates, Gaza Aid Site Massacre, Indonesia Volcano Alert Raised, Massive Russian Attack on Kyiv

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 **Israel-Iran Conflict Update: June 17–18, 2025

Overview of the Last 24 Hours

· Escalation of Hostilities: The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with both sides launching new waves of missile and air strikes. Early Wednesday, Iran fired two barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel, while Israel continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, especially around Tehran and Isfahan[1][2][3][4].

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Latest, Nigeria Attack Kills 100 in East, Mexican Mayor Shot Dead

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Update: June 16–17, 2025**

Overview

The conflict between Israel and Iran has sharply escalated over the past 24 hours, with both countries exchanging missile and drone strikes, resulting in significant casualties, infrastructure damage, and global market volatility1 2 3.

Military and Civilian Developments

Israeli Strikes on Iran

Israel continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including IRGC and Artesh Air Force positions in Tehran Province, and missile launch sites in Markazi and Qom provinces2 3.

Analysis: +72 hours Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel's Strikes Against Iran

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Analysis: +72 hours Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s Strikes Against Iran[

Decis Updated Assessment - Operation Rising Lion - 0600ET Monday, June 16 2025

Andrew Sheves

Updated Assessment on Iranian Response Scenarios as at 0600 ET June 16

Reminder

This is a rapidly developing situation and events may have changed since the time of this report. This report and the simulations were conducted using artificial intelligence. These include reasonable assumptions and best attempts to map out how events may unfold but there is significant uncertainty in these assessments. Full disclainers are contained at the end of the report.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Operation Rising Lion Update, G7 Meeting in Canada

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

Here’s a summary of the latest Decis assessment of Israel’s Operation ‘Rising Lion’ against Iran. The full assessment will be published here at 07:30ET

Overview of the Conflict

The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated dramatically since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 12–13, 2025. The operation began with a surprise Israeli airstrike aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, targeting both military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction on both sides.

Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel's Operation Rising Lion Against Iran

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran[
Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran

Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran

Decis Initial Assessment Dated 07:00ET Friday, June 13 2025

Andrew Sheves

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Iran will likely execute a calibrated multi-phase response combining direct military action, proxy activation, and accelerated nuclear development. The elimination of senior leadership creates dangerous unpredictability in Iranian decision-making. Regional escalation to broader conflict assessed as HIGH PROBABILITY (65-75%) within 30 days.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Strikes Iran, Air India Crash Kills 241, Marines Deploy to LA as US Protests Spread, China Drops Africa Tariffs plus Weekend Diversions

Andrew Sheves Good morning and apologies for the delayed SITREP.

🚨** **Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Strike on Iran

**This is the initial briefing from the Decis Analysis engine. **The full Decis analysis and scenario forecasts are here

Updated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025

Timeline of Events

Early hours of June 13, 2025: Israel launches a large-scale military operation against Iran, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion.” The strikes involve approximately 200 aircraft targeting roughly 100 sites across Iran. The operation is described as an extended campaign and represents the widest direct attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War.

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Air India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off, IAEA Censures Iran and US Draws Down Regional Presence, Anti-Immigrant Riots in Northern Ireland

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🚨** Breaking - Air India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off**

An Air India jet headed from Ahmedabad to London crashed shortly after takeoff. Via the BBC “Air India has set up a dedicated passenger hotline number. Families in India seeking more information can call 1800 5691 444” Live Tracker - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Austrian School Shooting, UK and Allies Sanction Israeli Ministers, Kirchner Banned From Office

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇦🇹** 10 Killed in Austrian School Shooting**

A 21-year-old former student killed 10 people at a Graz secondary school before taking his own life, marking Austria’s deadliest gun attack in recent history. The gunman legally owned the two firearms used and acted alone, with his motive still under investigation. Austria declared three days of national mourning, with Chancellor Christian Stocker calling it a “national tragedy.” More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Record Drone Strike on Ukraine Before POW Exchange, US-China Talks Continue

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇺🇦** Record Drone Strike on Ukraine Before POW Exchange**

Russia launched 479 drones against Ukraine in the war’s largest overnight bombardment, with Ukrainian forces downing 460 drones and 19 missiles. The massive attack came despite Russia’s stated interest in peace talks and just before the start of a prisoner exchange involving around 1,200 POWs from each side. Only 10 projectiles reached their targets, injuring one person. More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 09 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions, Trump Travel Ban Expands as LA Riots Escalate, Kampala Suicide Bombing, Colombian Presidential Candidate Shot

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

Five stories to help you catch up after the weekend.

🇹🇭** 🇰🇭 Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions**

Thailand and Cambodia will return forces to previously agreed positions after a May 28 firefight killed a Cambodian soldier along their disputed border. Thailand has taken control of all 17 border crossings and shortened operating hours at 10, citing threats to sovereignty. Cambodia seeks International Court resolution while Thailand prefers bilateral talks, leaving fundamental disagreements unresolved. More - Al Jazeera

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset, Israel Strikes Beirut

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

☪️ عِيد مُبَارَك

🇨🇳** 🇺🇸 Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset**

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks “shortly” after a 90-minute call that appeared to break an impasse over rare earth minerals and other disputes that had derailed their Geneva agreement. Trump acknowledged the trade relationship had gotten “a little off track” but said they were now “in very good shape,” though he didn’t specify whether China agreed to speed export licenses for critical magnets needed by US companies. The leaders exchanged invitations to visit each other’s countries, but tensions remain over technology controls and Taiwan, with both sides having just 90 days under their Geneva tariff reduction deal to reach a broader agreement. More - Bloomberg

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 05 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer, US Vetoes Gaza Ceasefire, Putin Threatens Ukraine Retaliation

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

⛏️ US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer

The US-China trade deal celebrated in Geneva is fraying over rare earth exports, with Washington accusing Beijing of violating promises to restore mineral flows while China maintains licensing requirements imposed in April. China agreed to suspend sanctions on 45 US companies for 90 days but never explicitly promised to reverse export licensing for seven critical rare earths used in electric motors and hard drives. US officials expected immediate resumption of exports after Geneva talks, but Chinese licensing approvals are coming through slowly as Beijing works through bureaucratic processes, with some companies now obtaining permits but exports remaining below pre-restriction levels. Full Explainer on Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency, Pakistan Prison Break

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇰🇷** Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency**

Opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung decisively won South Korea’s presidency exactly six months after predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law attempt triggered massive protests and his impeachment. The victory represents a clear rejection of the ruling People Power Party, which voters blamed for the democratic breakdown, though Lee faces immediate challenges including ongoing Supreme Court charges and navigating a deeply polarized nation. His top priority will be negotiating a trade deal with President Trump to soften US tariff impacts while working to heal divisions in a country where turnout reached 79.4%, the highest since 1997. More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Bangladesh Lifts Islamist Ban, Mongolia PM Ousted

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇧🇩** Bangladesh Lifts Islamist Ban**

Bangladesh’s Supreme Court restored registration for Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Muslim party, ending a decade-long ban imposed by ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. The decision allows the controversial party, which supported Pakistan during Bangladesh’s 1971 independence war, to participate in next year’s general election expected by June. The ruling came as the court also overturned a death sentence against key Jamaat leader ATM Azharul Islam for war crimes, while Hasina faces trial in absentia for her deadly crackdown on protesters that killed up to 1,400 people. More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability, Poland Elects Nationalist President

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

🇺🇦** Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability**

Ukraine launched its largest long-range attack of the war, using 117 drones in a “Spider’s Web” operation that struck at least 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases — 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers — including facilities thousands of miles from Ukraine in Siberia. The SBU security service spent 18 months planning the complex operation, smuggling drones in wooden cabins on trucks and remotely launching them near Russian airbases, causing an estimated $7 billion in damage to strategic aviation assets. The strikes occurred as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators prepared for peace talks in Istanbul, though expectations remain low given the sides’ fundamental disagreements on ending the conflict. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 30 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs, Hamas Rejects Ceasefire Terms

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🧑‍⚖️ Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs

A federal appeals court granted Trump a temporary reprieve from a lower court ruling that blocked his sweeping tariffs, but the White House now faces slower, more complex alternatives if the legal challenge ultimately succeeds. The administration could pursue tariffs through Section 232 investigations or other authorities, but these would take months to implement rather than the immediate impact Trump sought through emergency powers. The original ruling would have reduced effective US tariff rates from nearly 27% to below 6%, marking one of Trump’s biggest setbacks as he races to deliver results before midterm elections. More - Bloomberg

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 29 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump Tariffs Blocked, Iran Strike ‘On Hold’

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

✋** Trump Tariffs Blocked**

A US trade court ruled President Trump’s global tariffs illegal and blocked their implementation, delivering a major blow to a cornerstone of his economic agenda. The three-judge panel sided with Democratic states and small businesses who argued Trump wrongfully invoked emergency powers to justify the levies, marking one of his biggest legal setbacks amid widespread challenges to his executive orders. Global markets have fluctuated wildly since the tariffs were announced April 2, with trillions in market value lost and regained amid delays and potential trade deal announcements. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 28 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Gaza Aid Distribution Chaos and Ukraine Drone War Escalates

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** Gaza Aid Distribution Chaos**

Thousands of Palestinians stormed a US-Israeli backed aid distribution center in Rafah operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, overwhelming security and forcing staff to retreat as crowds climbed fences to seize food parcels. Israeli troops fired warning shots during the chaotic scene, highlighting the desperation of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents facing potential famine after an 11-week blockade. The UN and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the controversial GHF system, calling it a weaponization of humanitarian aid that contradicts core principles of neutrality and independence. More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 27 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Toxic Ship Sinks off India, Germany Lifts Deep Strike Restrictions on Ukraine, EU Pledges Fast-Track Trade Talks

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇮🇳** Toxic Ship Sinks off Kerala Coast**

A Liberian-flagged cargo vessel carrying hazardous chemicals and 451 tonnes of oil capsized off Kerala’s coast near Kochi on Sunday. All 24 crew members were rescued, but authorities issued coastal alerts as oil slicks and drifting containers threaten the biodiverse shoreline and tourism industry. The Indian Coast Guard deployed pollution control equipment while officials warned residents against touching containers or oil that wash ashore. [More - BBC]

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 26 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

🇺🇸 Memorial Day Ratings

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

🇺🇸 Veterans, thank you for your service.

No headlines today, just the ratings.

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Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 23 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India Kills Insurgent Leader, US Sanctions Sudan

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇳** India Kills Insurgent Leader**

Indian security forces killed the leader of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) group. Nambala Keshava Rao and 26 other rebels were killed in Chhattisgarh state during a gunfight following intelligence tip-offs. This marks the first time in three decades that such a senior CPI (Maoist) commander has been eliminated by government forces, according to Home Minister Amit Shah. The operation is part of India’s massive “Black Forest” military campaign launched last month, aimed at ending the decades-long insurgency by March 2026. More - BBC

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 22 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israeli Embassy Staff Killed in DC, Bond Market Revolt, IDF Fires on Diplomats in West Bank, Former Ukrainian Official Murdered in Spain

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇱** Israeli Embassy Staff Killed in DC**

Two Israeli embassy staff were shot dead outside Washington’s Jewish museum on Wednesday night by a gunman who chanted “free Palestine” while in custody. The victims, Sarah Lynn Milgrim and Yaron Lischinsky, were leaving a diplomatic reception when 30-year-old Elias Rodriguez of Chicago opened fire at close range. The FBI is investigating as terrorism and hate crime, with Israel stepping up embassy security worldwide. More - Financial Times

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 21 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

UK and EU Review Relations with Israel, US Warns of Israeli Plan to Strike Iran, Mexico City Mayor’s Aides Killed

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇱** UK and EU Review Relations with Israel Over Gaza Siege**

The UK government suspended new free trade negotiations with Israel over its Gaza military conduct while imposing additional sanctions on illegal Israeli settler outposts in the West Bank. Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced the move as the EU also voted to review its trade agreement with Israel due to the “catastrophic” situation in Gaza. Israel quickly denounced the UK’s decision, claiming negotiations weren’t advancing anyway under the current government. More - Al Jazeera

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 20 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

UK-EU Reset Deal, Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Talks, Israel’s Gaza Offensive Continues

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🤝** UK-EU Reset Deal**

UK and EU agree to major reset deal covering fishing, trade, and defense, marking the largest reboot since Brexit. European fishing boats gain 12-year access to British waters in exchange for reduced trade barriers and paperwork. Prime Minister Starmer emphasized moving beyond “stale old debates” while opposition parties remain divided on the agreement’s merits. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 19 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Romanian, Portuguese, and Polish Elections, US Credit Downgrade, Gaza Assault Intensifies

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

🗳️ Romania, Portugal, and Poland went to the polls this weekend:

🇷🇴 Liberal and pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan won Romania’s presidential race. [More - BBC]

🇵🇹 The incumbent right-of-centre Democratic Alliance party won in Portugal’s elections, but failed to secure a majority. [More - BBC]

🇵🇱 Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly won Sunday’s vote, but a run-off will be required to determine Poland’s next president [More - BBC]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 16 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults, Ukraine Peace Talks Sputter

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults**

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed concern over Gaza’s humanitarian situation as Israeli airstrikes killed 114 Palestinians on Thursday. The strikes hit homes and tents sheltering displaced families in Khan Younis, with Nasser hospital reporting 56 deaths including women and children. Gaza has been under complete Israeli blockade of all food and humanitarian supplies for 10 weeks, with the UN warning half a million people face starvation. More - BBC

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 15 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Zelensky Criticizes ‘Sham’ Talks, Trump Suggests Iran Nuclear Deal Close

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇦** Zelensky Criticizes ‘Sham’ Talks**

Russia sent only low-level representatives to potential peace talks in Istanbul, dashing hopes for a high-profile diplomatic breakthrough. Ukrainian President Zelensky criticized Moscow’s delegation as “more like a sham level” while Western allies urged Ukraine to participate despite the setback. Russia’s negotiating team mirrors its 2022 delegation and appears to be maintaining its hard-line demands. More - Washington Post

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 14 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump Announces Deals, Lifts Syrian Sanctions on KSA Trip, Mali Dissolves Political Parties

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇸🇦 **Trump Announces KSA Deals, Lifts Syrian Sanctions **

Trump’s Saudi Arabia visit yielded contested investment claims—ranging from $300 billion to $1 trillion—including $142 billion in defense sales and tech sector investments from Google and Oracle. During the Riyadh summit, he also announced lifting sanctions on post-Assad Syria, crediting discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Erdogan while planning to meet new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa despite concerns about his extremist past. More - Bloomberg

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 13 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Violence in Tripoli, Ukraine-Russia Summit Uncertainty

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇱🇾** Violence in Tripoli After Militia Leader’s Death**

Heavy fighting erupted in Libya’s capital after militia leader Abdel Ghani al-Kikli was killed, prompting UN calls for de-escalation. At least six people were injured as rival armed groups exchanged gunfire across multiple neighborhoods, forcing authorities to impose lockdowns and school closures. Residents demand accountability in a city plagued by militia conflicts since Gaddafi’s 2011 overthrow. More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 12 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India - Pakistan Ceasefire, PKK Disarms, US & China Cut Tariffs

Andrew Sheves Good morning

🇮🇳** 🇵🇰 India - Pakistan Ceasefire Holds, Talks Planned**

India and Pakistan’s US-brokered ceasefire appears to be holding after four days of intense cross-border shelling and aerial attacks that threatened to escalate into full-scale war. India has reopened 32 civilian airports previously closed due to safety concerns, while both nuclear-armed nations claim military victory despite dozens of casualties. Top military officials from both sides are meeting Monday to discuss ceasefire details, with both countries maintaining vigilance and warning against violations. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 09 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India / Pakistan fighting continues, UK trade deal double, and US-China talks this weekend. Plus weekend diversions

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

(Headlines from me today, not the AI.)

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Fighting between India and Pakistan continues with reports of multiple strikes into both countries, including missile and drone strikes. The situation remains precarious and fast-moving with potential for escalation. Al Jazeera has a live tracker here

Graphic: Al Jazeera

🇬🇧 The UK was in a deal-making mood, striking trade deals with India [BBC] and the USA [BBC]. Notably, this was the first deal with President Trump following the imposition of tariffs last month, although the UK has been pursuing a trade deal with the US since Brexit.

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 08 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇳** 🇵🇰 India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate**

India and Pakistan traded missile strikes and drone attacks following India’s retaliation on Wednesday for the Kashmir militant. Pakistan reports 31 deaths from Indian strikes while India claims 16 civilian casualties from Pakistani shelling, with both sides claiming that they are neutralizing enemy weapons, but the situation is fluid and claims are hard to verify. This BBC Live Tracker is Monitoring the Situation

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 07 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India Strikes Pakistan, Houthis to end Red Sea Strikes, Asia’s Hardline Response to Trump Tariffs

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

💥 India Strikes Pakistan

India launched targeted strikes against alleged “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir following a deadly April 22 attack that killed 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan denies involvement and claims 26 civilians were killed in the strikes, while threatening retaliation against what Prime Minister Sharif called a “heinous act of aggression.” UN chief Guterres has called for “maximum restraint” as tensions escalate between the nuclear-armed neighbors. More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 06 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Plans Mass Civilian Relocation in Gaza, Ukraine Strikes Russia

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇵🇸 Israel Plans Mass Civilian Relocation in Gaza

Netanyahu plans intensive military operation in Gaza where Palestinian population “will be moved” for “protection.” The Security Cabinet unanimously approved plans to call up reservists and put Israeli military in charge of aid delivery to the 2.3 million people suffering under blockade. Reports suggest Israel aims for complete “conquest” and occupation of Gaza, potentially including population expulsion while Netanyahu “continues to promote” Trump’s plan for Palestinian departure from the enclave. More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 05 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Nationalist Candidate Leads in Romania, Israel Calls Up Reservists, Kidnapped Peruvian Miners Killed, Albanese Wins Re-election

Andrew Sheves Good morning

🇷🇴** Nationalist Candidate Leads Romanian Election**

Nationalist George Simion secured 40% in Romania’s presidential election first round, outpacing liberal Nicusor Dan and coalition candidate Crin Antonescu at 21% each. The election rerun follows annulment of previous results over fraud allegations. Despite denying pro-Russian sympathies, Simion’s potential presidency raises concerns about Romania’s strategic NATO role and Ukraine support. More - BBC

Report: The Effects of Tariffs on American Supply Chains

Sun, 04 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Decis Research Report

Good morning and Happy Sunday,

The long-term effects of President Trump’s tariffs won’t be known for a long time: remaking America’s industrial base is a generational task. It will even be months before the final tariff rates are agreed so a great deal of uncertainty remains.

However, what is certain is that supply chains are being disrupted now but this is being overshadowed by the political noise and market watching.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 02 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely and Imminent, Turkish Protest Arrests

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely, Imminent

Warnings are circulating that India plans to attack Pakistan in response to last week’s attack on primarily Indian tourists in Kashmir. The attack by The Resistance Front (TRF), militants believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, left 26 dead [Al Jazeera Report here]

India has a wide range of options from surgical strikes to more conventional shows of force and attacks, but there is no indication of where, when, and how they will respond.

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 01 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US-Ukraine Minerals Deal, China’s Domestic Economic Pressures. Plus we’re relaunching deep dives (with an upgrade)

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇦** US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Signed**

Ukraine and the US signed an agreement to establish the “United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund” for joint investment in Ukraine’s natural resources, marking a diplomatic victory for Kyiv which rewrote the deal after initially refusing to sign. The revised agreement removes language requiring Ukraine to reimburse Washington for past military aid and includes provisions protecting Ukraine from violating EU laws, though Trump’s frustration grows over the three-week delay in signing. The largely symbolic deal offers no concrete security guarantees but signals “long-term strategic alignment” between the countries. More - Washington Post

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Carney, Liberals Win in Canada, Gaza Fighting Grinds On

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇨🇦** Carney, Liberals Win in Canada**

Carney’s Liberals won a projected 169 seats, short of the 172 needed for a majority, requiring cooperation with other parties as he navigates US trade tariffs and domestic issues. Meanwhile, the previous favorite, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, lost his Commons seat. Tension with the US remains as the White House controversially commented that the election “does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state,” a scenario Carney told the BBC would “never, ever happen.” More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Spain, Portugal Blackout, Ceasefire in the DRC

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

🇪🇸** 🇵🇹 Blackout Hits Spain and Portugal**

A massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal on Monday, reaching the 12-hour mark with only 50% of supply restored and no clear cause identified despite losing 15 gigawatts in just five seconds. Spanish PM Sanchez warned of a “long night ahead” while declaring a state of emergency in eight regions, as the unprecedented blackout stranded 35,000 train passengers and raised questions about grid stability amid Europe’s renewable energy transition. Portugal’s PM Montenegro expected full restoration within hours. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Deadly Attack in Canada on Election Eve, China Seizes Disputed Atoll, Iran Port Blast and Israeli Strikes in Beirut

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

🇨🇦** Deadly Attack in Canada Upsets Final Day of Campaigning**

Canada’s federal election campaign took a somber turn as party leaders responded to a deadly incident where an SUV rammed into a Filipino festival in Vancouver, killing 11 people. Prime Minister Carney cancelled major rallies while continuing smaller events, Conservative Leader Poilievre held a moment of silence before resuming campaign activities, and NDP Leader Singh—who had left the festival minutes before the attack—cancelled multiple events to attend a Filipino mass. More - CBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Canada Election Summary and the Downside of Trump’s Tariff Vacillations

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇨🇦 Canadians vote on Monday (although a record number have already voted early) and the BBC has a neat summary of how the two parties compare on key issues. Unsurprisingly, both reject President Trump’s idea that Canada become America’s 51st state.

🤷 Bloomberg notes that the significant impact of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff vacillations is global uncertainty for both governments and businesses. [More - Bloomberg]

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

China Returns Boeing Jets, Turkish Earthquake

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🛫** China Returns Boeing Jets**

China has returned Boeing aircraft and halted delivery of 50 more planes in retaliation for Trump’s 145% tariffs. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed two jets have already been sent back with more to follow, forcing the company to seek alternative buyers. Despite the escalation, Trump expressed optimism that tariff levels would “come down substantially.” More - BBC

Putting The Decis Agents To The Test

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Why we’re participating in the Metaculus Forecasting Tournament

The Decis Intelligence agents weren’t designed to be forecasting tools. (In fact, I have a draft article explaining why we aren’t in the prediction business.) However, as I was building out the scenario planning tools, it was obvious that if these were to be useful, I needed a way to determine how effective, realistic, and accurate the scenario likelihood estimates were.

But, as Andrew Ng wrote recently, evals and benchmarking are hard and expensive to set up. And in this case, how do you even evaluate the effectiveness of a forward-looking forecast?

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tourist Attack in Kashmir, Trump Softens Tariff Stance on China and Ukraine Peace Talks Setbacks. Plus, how we’re putting the bots to the test.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇳** 26 Tourists Killed in Kashmir Attack**

Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir in the deadliest attack in 25 years. The Resistance Front who claimed the attack are believed to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. The attack, targeting mostly Indian civilians at the “valley of shepherds” tourist destination, threatens to escalate India-Pakistan tensions, with some experts describing it as “an act of war.” More - Al Jazeera

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 22 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US Markets, Dollar Continue Slide, Speculation of Next Pope Begins and Gaza Restrictions Increase

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

Three headlines to start your day

🔻 US Market Fall Resumes Amid Trump-Fed Tensions

After the long weekend, US markets slumped Monday with the S&P 500 and other major indexes dropping around 2.5% as President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell over interest rates. The dollar weakened to a 15-month low while gold surged above $3,400 an ounce amid growing investor concerns about Fed independence and global trade tensions. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ratings rundown

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

It’s just the ratings today but the full report is back tomorrow

🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania is Weak

🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak

🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable

🇦🇴 Angola is Weak

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable

🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak

🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak

🇦🇺 Australia is Stable

🇦🇹 Austria is Stable

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak

🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak

🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Happy Easter 🐣

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

I’m taking a couple of days off for easter weekend, so it will just be the ratings and summaries today and on Monday. Headlines and weekend diversions will return next week.

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US Stock Plunge After Fed Warning, US-Iran Talks to Continue Saturday

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🔻** US Stocks Plunge After Fed Warning**

US markets plunged Wednesday as Powell warned of inflation risks from trade tensions and the Trump administration restricted chip exports to China. Nvidia fell 6.9% facing $5.5 billion in charges while AMD dropped 7.4%, expecting an $800 million writedown, after both companies’ advanced chips were barred from China. The selloff deepened during Powell’s Chicago speech, with the S&P 500 closing down 2.2% and the semiconductor index dropping 4.1%. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

New Chinese Trade Negotiator and Israel Increases Pressure on Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇨🇳 China Names New Trade Negotiator Amid Tariff War with US

China has appointed Li Chenggang, former assistant commerce minister and WTO ambassador, to replace veteran negotiator Wang Shouwen as its key trade envoy amid escalating tensions with the United States. The surprise move comes as Beijing faces the impact of Trump’s increased tariffs, which recently jumped from 10% to 145%, with China retaliating by raising duties on US goods to 125%. Despite reporting better-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, Chinese officials warned of economic challenges ahead as the tariffs begin to affect exports. A Chinese official criticized the US approach as “tariff barriers and trade bullying” that “violates economic laws” and “has a serious impact on the world economic order.” More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Diplomats’ Expulsion Increases Algeria-French Tensions

Andrew Sheves

Good morning,

One quick headline this morning

🇩🇿** Diplomats’ Expulsion Increases Algeria-French Tensions**

Algeria has ordered 12 French embassy officials to leave the country within 48 hours, escalating diplomatic tensions between the two nations. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot linked the expulsions to Friday’s indictment of three Algerians in Paris, including a consular official accused of involvement in the 2024 abduction of Amir Boukhors, a prominent government critic with over one million online followers. The diplomatic row threatens to derail recent reconciliation efforts between the countries, with Barrot warning that France would “respond immediately” if Algeria proceeds with the expulsions. This incident follows several others straining French-Algerian relations, including Algeria’s previous ambassador recall after France supported Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

New President in Gabon, 30+ Killed in Russian Missile Strike in Ukraine and Israel Hits Gaza’s Last Hospital.

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

🇬🇦 Gabon Coup Leader Wins Presidency

General Brice Oligui Nguema has won Gabon’s presidential election with an overwhelming 90.4% of votes, solidifying his grip on power nearly two years after overthrowing his cousin Ali Bongo. Campaigning on promises to reduce youth unemployment through economic diversification beyond oil dependency, Nguema has pledged to grow GDP by 7% annually while adding domestic value to the country’s natural resources. Despite his promises to attract foreign investment, Nguema has taken steps to increase state control over the economy, including using preemptive rights to block the sale of Assala Energy and taking controlling stakes in timber operations. Investors remain concerned about Gabon’s widening budget deficit, which the IMF expects to reach 6.5% of GDP this year with public debt climbing to 80% of GDP. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 11 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Gaza Buffer Zones Expand, US Markets Resume Losses

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend.

🇵🇸** Israel Expands Gaza Buffer Zones**

Israel will expand its “security zones” in Gaza to include Rafah and surrounding areas, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz during a visit to troops deployed between Rafah and Khan Younis. Katz stated the military is deliberately leaving Gaza “smaller” and “more isolated” to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining hostages, adding that “all of Rafah will be evacuated and turned into a security area.” The UN reports that approximately two-thirds of Gaza is now designated as “no-go” zones or under evacuation orders since Israel resumed its offensive in March, with 390,000 Palestinians displaced once again and humanitarian aid deliveries blocked since March 2. More - BBC

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Chinese Troops in Ukraine, Tariffs Pause (For Some…)

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇨🇳** Chinese Soldiers Captured in Ukraine**

Ukraine has captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia in the Donetsk region, with President Zelensky claiming intelligence suggests “much higher” numbers of Chinese soldiers in Russia’s forces. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha summoned China’s envoy in Kyiv, stating that Chinese troops on Ukrainian soil “puts into question China’s declared stance for peace.” Beijing responded it was “verifying the relevant situation” while calling Ukraine’s accusation of additional Chinese involvement “groundless,” maintaining that it consistently urges its citizens to avoid armed conflicts. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

UN chief Condemns Gaza Blockade and Dozens Killed in Dominican Republic Nightclub Accident

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** UN Chief Condemns Gaza Blockade**

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has denounced Israel’s month-long aid blockade of Gaza, calling the territory “a killing field” where “civilians are in an endless death loop.” Guterres rejected Israel’s proposal to control aid deliveries, stating the UN “will not participate in any arrangement that does not fully respect humanitarian principles.” During a visit to El Arish, French President Emmanuel Macron joined Egypt’s President el-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II in calling for an immediate return to a ceasefire as humanitarian conditions deteriorate for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents. More - Aljazeera

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Algeria Mali Tensions, US Iran Talks (Maybe)

Andrew Sheves

Good morning

🇩🇿** / 🇲🇱 Algeria-Mali Tensions**

Algeria has closed its airspace to all flights from Mali after shooting down a Malian drone near their shared border, escalating diplomatic tensions between the neighbors. Mali accused Algeria of being a “sponsor and exporter of terrorism” and described the drone incident as a “hostile premeditated action,” while Algeria dismissed these allegations as “lacking in seriousness” that “warrant no attention or response.” The dispute has deepened regional instability as Mali fights Tuareg separatists along the northern border, with Mali withdrawing from a regional security grouping and recalling its ambassador from Algeria following the incident. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

⤵️ Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns

Global markets tumbled Monday as the Trump administration doubled down on its tariff strategy despite the $5.4 trillion selloff last week. Asian shares fell as much as 7.9%, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunging over 10% and Taiwan’s index suffering its worst drop on record. President Trump remained defiant, saying “sometimes you have to take medicine” while Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed recession fears and claimed “the market consistently underestimates Donald Trump.” Trump’s economic team insisted the tariffs will make America “wealthy like never before” despite warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Powell about higher inflation and economists predicting a recession. Even Trump supporter Bill Ackman criticized the policy, warning “the president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe.” More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US Tariffs Cause Market Drops and Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend.

🔻** Liberation Day Causes Markets to Plunge**

US stocks suffered their worst plunge since the pandemic, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% and erasing $2.5 trillion in value as Trump’s new tariffs sparked recession fears. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, with tech giants like Apple (-9%), Tesla, and Nvidia taking heavy hits, while retail and manufacturing stocks plummeted—Nike tumbled 14% and luxury furnishing company RH crashed 40%. Bond traders boosted bets on Fed rate cuts as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%, with analysts warning tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 2 percentage points while pushing inflation to 5%. More - Bloomberg

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 03 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Annoiuncement: Shock and Ongoing Uncertainty

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Comment - Today’s news will be full of coverage of the immediate effect of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, but three big elements stood out while listening to the ceremony:

1 - The basis for the individual charges was unclear based on the President’s remarks, which included a range of reasons. (Note - The actual calculation released by the USTR is a completely different rationale than the one the President cited and has done little to assuage economists.)

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 02 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan, Liberation Day Arrives but Details Still Shrouded in Secrecy, Chinese FM Visits Moscow

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

We had a great response to yesterday’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. Thanks for all the kind notes. (In case you missed it, the full announcement is here)

Three headlines to start your day.

🇹🇼 China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan

Decis Partners with HumanRisks

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Decis + HumanRisks

We’re excited to announce our new partnership with HumanRisks (humanrisks.com).

We’re integrating the Decis Country Intelligence feed directly into their comprehensive security risk management platform as a fully embedded data feed. This integration will provide security managers and asset owners with immediate access to Decis country risk ratings, directional assessments, and key news summaries—essential contextual information for making informed security decisions.

The integration goes live on April 1st and will be available to both existing and new HumanRisks users on a trial basis.

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Le Pen Barred from Politics, Uncertainty over Liberation Day Tariffs and Haggis Hunt Disruption.

Andrew Sheves

Good morning and happy April Fool’s Day. I’m glad to say the big announcement below is 100% real….

But first, some headlines to get you started.

🇫🇷 Le Pen Barred From Public Office

Marine Le Pen has been barred from holding public office for five years after being found guilty of embezzling EU funds, likely eliminating her from the 2027 French presidential race. While she plans to appeal, this verdict throws her National Rally party into disarray, with 29-year-old Jordan Bardella potentially becoming the alternative candidate. The ruling could initially boost support among her base who view it as systemic persecution but may weaken the party’s long-term prospects. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Eid Attacks in Gaza, Over 1,700 Feared Dead in Myanmar Leading to Calls for Ceasefire

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Sadly, some grim headlines to start the week.

🇵🇸** Gaza Eid Attacks**

Israeli airstrikes killed at least 35 Palestinians during Eid al-Fitr celebrations in Rafah and Khan Younis as Netanyahu maintained demands for Hamas to disarm and leave Gaza. The Palestine Red Crescent recovered 15 medical workers’ bodies following an Israeli attack, while humanitarian conditions deteriorate with aid deliveries halted since early March and ceasefire prospects appearing remote. More - Al Jazeera

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Myanmar Earthquake. New Details on Ukrainian Minerals Deal, Arctic Cooperation Offer and N Korea’s S

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Breaking - Massive Earthquake Hits Myanmar

A powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar earlier today, causing widespread damage. Strong tremors were felt in neighboring Vietnam and Thailand, and at least one building collapsed in Bangkok. Myanmar is closed to foreign press making reporting difficult but the BBC has a Live Feed here

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Bolsonaro to Stand Trial and Trump Slaps 25% Tariff on Car Imports

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two stories to set you up for the day.

🇧🇷** Brazil Court to Try Bolsonaro**

Brazil’s Supreme Court unanimously ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to stand trial on charges of attempting a coup d’état after his 2022 election loss. Bolsonaro faces five criminal charges including allegedly attempting to violently abolish democratic rule of law, with Justice Alexandre de Moraes citing the former president’s “systematic effort to cast doubt on electronic voting machines.” If convicted in proceedings expected later this year, Bolsonaro could receive a lengthy prison sentence, further complicating his declared intention to run for president again despite being barred from public office until 2030.

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Black Sea Ceasefire and Anti-Hamas Protests in Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two headlines for you today.

🇺🇦 Black Sea Ceasefire Deal

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea through separate deals with the US after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Russia stipulated the ceasefire would only take effect after sanctions against its food and fertilizer trade are lifted, while Ukraine’s Zelensky called the agreement “a step in the right direction” but warned his country would seek further sanctions if Moscow violates its commitments. Both sides also agreed to develop measures implementing a ban on attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, though accusations of violations emerged shortly after the announcement. More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

One week out from US ‘Liberation Day’ and Burundi Accuses Rwanda of Attack Plot

Andrew Sheves

Good morning.

Next Wednesday is ‘Liberation Day’: the day when the off-again, on-again US tariffs are imposed across the board but the administration continues to change and adjust what is or is not potentially being targeted so this Bloomberg tracker is very useful. Meanwhile, in addition to the complexities of reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is also threatening ‘secondary tariffs’.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability Ratings, Protests in Turkey, Canada’s Election set for April 28, and External and Internal Tensions In Israel

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Three headlines to help you catch up quickly.

🇹🇷 ** Anti-Government Protests Sweep Turkey**

There were enormous protests across Turkey all weekend following last week’s arrest of Istanbul’s Mayopr and prominent opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu. The charges are viewed by many as fabricated, with the main aim of preventing Imamoglu — a popular leader — from participating in upcoming elections. [More - AlJazeera]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Government Retakes Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Heathrow Closure, Hamas Rockets Target Israel

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇸🇩 Government Forces Retake Presidential Palace in Khartoum

Sudanese government forces have retaken the Presidential Palace in Khartoum but the opposition Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still control large parts of the Sudanese capital. [Live coverage - BBC]

🛬 Heathrow Shuts Down After Nearby Fire

London Heathrow Airport faces unprecedented closure after a nearby electrical substation fire cut power to the hub, forcing cancellations of over 1,300 flights and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. British Airways alone will see 677 flights impacted, and there are likely to be widespread knock-on travel delays for days. More - Bloomberg

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Reenters Gaza, Positive Signs in Ukraine Ceasefire Talks and Emergency Declaration in Nigeria’s Rivers State

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸 Israeli Troops Reenter Gaza

Israel initiated a limited ground operation in Gaza, re-establishing control of the Netzarim Corridor to create a buffer between northern and southern regions. Defense Minister Katz issued a “final warning” that Gaza residents would face evacuation from battle zones unless Hamas releases the remaining 59 hostages. This marks the first ground incursion since a six-week ceasefire lapsed earlier this month. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Putin-Trump Fail to Agree Ceasefire and Gaza Offensive Resumes with ‘Full Force’

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two headlines to start your day

🇺🇦** Trump-Putin Fail to Reach Ceasefire Agreement**

Putin rejected Trump’s requested 30-day Ukraine ceasefire, instead offering only to limit attacks on energy infrastructure while demanding an end to Western weapons transfers. Despite the limited agreement, Trump claimed victory and announced peace negotiations are underway, while Ukraine’s Zelenskiy conditionally accepted the arrangement. European allies remain skeptical, with the UK discussing accelerated arms shipments before any ceasefire takes effect. More - Bloomberg

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Hundreds Killed in Gaza Strikes, Trump Deportations backlash and Netanyahu Moves to Fire head of Shin Bet

Andrew Sheves

Good morning.

📞 US President Trump and Russian Putin will have a direct phone call today (morning ET) to discuss the proposed peace plan for Ukraine.

Three headlines to kick off your Tuesday.

💥** Breaking: Extensive Israeli Strikes Across Gaza Kill Over 300**

Beginning at 0200 local, Israel conducted extensive strikes across Gaza hitting 35 targets across the strip. Several senior Hamas leaders were killed in the strikes, along with hundreds of civilians. Israel also issued evacuation notices, establishing a ‘red zone’ along the entire Gaza border, forcing thousands of families to move. The strikes came after two months of relative peace during Phase One of a ceasefire when the hostage and prisoner changes took place, and aid was allowed back into the Gaza Strip. BBC - Live Updates

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings, anti-government protests in Belgrade, Yemen Strikes and Mass Deportations from USA

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Three headlines from the weekend.

🇷🇸 Huge Anti-Government Protests in Belgrade

Serbia witnessed its largest-ever protest as up to 325,000 people rallied in Belgrade against the government following a railway station collapse that killed 15 people last November. The massive demonstration, organized as “15th for 15,” brought together students, taxi drivers, farmers, and military veterans demanding accountability for the disaster at Novi Sad station, which many blame on corruption during renovation work personally inaugurated by President Aleksandar Vucic. Despite multiple resignations including the Prime Minister’s, protesters insist none of their demands for transparency and justice have been fully met. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Work Still to be Done on Ukraine Peace Deal, US Shutdown Averted and Weekend Diversions

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two stories to help you stay up on top of things.

🇺🇦 US negotiator Steve Witkoff met with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss the Ukraine peace deal last night to discuss the proposed ceasefire deal. Putin reportedly “expressed solidarity” with President Trump’s position but had “voiced a number of questions that need to be answered together… There’s still a lot ahead to be done”. [BBC Live Coverage]

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Moscow Stays Silent on Ukraine Deal, US Shutdown Approaches and Iran Rejects Nuclear Talks

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇦 Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow

The BBC has a line-by-line breakdown of the proposed peace deal for Ukraine here. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has yet to respond to the proposed deal officially but US mediators head to Moscow soon to discuss the deal with the Russian leader.

🇺🇸 US Government Shutdown Looms

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Train Siege in Pakistan, EU Hits Back with Tariffs and a Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇰** Train Siege in Pakistan**

Security forces have freed over 100 passengers from a militant train attack in Pakistan’s Balochistan region, killing at least 17 attackers in an ongoing operation. The Baloch Liberation Army seized the Jaffar Express carrying more than 400 passengers, threatening to kill hostages if authorities did not release Baloch political prisoners within 48 hours. Rescue operations continue in the remote Sibi district where the train remains surrounded by mountains. More - BBC

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Duterte Arrested, Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume Amidst Moscow Drone Blitz, and US Markets Plunge

Andrew Sheves

Good morning.

🇵🇭 Breaking* Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manilla in response to an ICC warrant alleging human rights abuses during his time as President. [More - BBC]*

Two headlines to kick off your Tuesday

🇺🇦 Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume in Saudi

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed optimism about Ukraine’s partial ceasefire proposal ahead of crucial talks in Saudi Arabia, calling it “the kind of concession needed to end the conflict.” Ukraine is expected to propose an aerial and naval truce during negotiations between Ukrainian officials and U.S. representatives including Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The talks follow President Trump’s suspension of military aid to pressure Kyiv toward peace negotiations, with Rubio indicating aid could resume if Ukraine demonstrates commitment to a diplomatic solution. President Zelensky met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday but will not participate directly in Tuesday’s discussions. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Mon, 10 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Three headlines from the weekend. (A summary of all of last week’s big stories is the in audio summary below.)

🇨🇦 Carney Elected as Canadian Prime Minister

Former central banker Mark Carney won the Liberal Party leadership race with 85.9% of the vote and will become Canada’s prime minister within days amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The incoming leader faces immediate challenges from Trump’s chaotic tariff policies, including imminent 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports and threats against Canadian lumber and dairy products. Carney, who positioned himself as an experienced crisis manager, pledged to find new export markets and scrap planned capital gains tax increases while warning “no way” to Trump’s suggestion of making Canada “the 51st state.” More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Assad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two stories to help you stay up on top of things.

🇸🇾 Assad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces

Assad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad’s fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced “coastal shield regiment” led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. More - Al Jazeera

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US Recession Signals, Fighting Words from China and USAID Cuts Cause Starvation in Sudan

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇸 US Recession Signals Mount

JPMorgan’s market-implied probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 17% in November, with some indicators suggesting a 50% chance of economic contraction. The risk assessment comes amid weakening factory activity, declining consumer confidence, and market volatility triggered by Trump’s newly implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. While unemployment remains low at around 4%, economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate a 25% probability of contraction within a year as stagflation concerns grow. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trade Wars Kick Off and an Alternate Plan for Gaza from the Middle East

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🏴‍☠️ Trade War(s) Kick Off

In response to US tariffs, Canada refused to concede to American pressure and responded with reciprocal measures. China and Mexico have also vowed retaliatory measures to come soon. However, by evening, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs could be lifted as early as Wednesday, deepening confusion. [More - Bloomberg]

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 04 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tariffs Kick In, Oil Production Increase and Gaza Ceasefire in Danger

Andrew Sheves

Good morning.

Three quick headlines worth tracking.

**President Trump Confirms Canada, Mexico and Chinese Tariffs. **

🛑 Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect Tuesday, with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, sending U.S. stock indexes sharply lower. Canada called the tariffs “an existential threat” with thousands of jobs at stake, while all three countries have promised retaliatory measures. The president dismissed economic concerns, suggesting foreign manufacturers should “build their car plants in the United States”. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Here are this week’s stability ratings and the audio review of last week’s stories.

Reminder: this audio is an AI-summary of last week’s reports. AI can make mistakes — particularly in the subtleties of International relations — so please review any situation carefully before you make major decisions.

**Want to include these ratings in your own system? **

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Andrew Sheves ** In partnership with **

](https://magic.beehiiv.com/v1/4d03390d-2481-4299-b949-ffd8b38b4c38?email={{email}}&utm_campaign=XO7DWEQZLV&redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fsubscribe.therundown.ai%2F%3Fform%3Dopen&redirect_delay=1&_gl=11qqix25_gcl_auMTYwNDc0Mjg2OC4xNzI5NTMyNjYw_gaMTk2YzU4MDctZGFlZi00MjQ3LWIzZDYtYTQ1MTUwMmJiZTQ0_ga_E6Y4WLQ2EC*MTczMjUxMTg2Ny4yNTkzLjEuMTczMjUxMzM4My42MC4wLjE4NTk3NDE3MTE.&bhiiv=opp_fba53f81-2740-4c36-96fe-60e793d15369_e4221c46&bhcl_id=14f77182-d5a5-40e8-8698-8ce5dd413558_SUBSCRIBER_ID{{email_address_id}}) Happy Monday.

As I mentioned on Friday, I’m switching the SITREP format and will be trying a couple of different schedules over the next few weeks.

Mondays will always be the complete stability ratings overview but today I’m also including an audio brief summarizing last week’s news. This gives you a quick overview of the main events from the last seven days to prep you for the week ahead.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP changes and an AI talk this weekend

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

No headlines today but a quick announcement on some upcoming changes to the SITREPs.

Our mission at Decis is simple: to provide you with a tailored, focused report on what’s relevant to you to help you adapt and respond quickly. And given that we can produce these reports up to 100x faster that the alternatives and customize down to the individual level, I like to think we’re pretty good* at it.

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Upcoming Germany Elections and Cuts at the Pentagon

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two quick reads this morning.

🇩🇪 German elections taking place this Sunday will determine not only who will lead Europe’s biggest economy, but how influential the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is. Bloomberg has a good overview here.

🇺🇸 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has demanded cuts of $50 billion at the Pentagon and a reordering of US defense priorities.

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine’s Worst Day Since the Russian Invasion

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇦 Yesterday was the most consequential day for Ukraine since the Russian invasion three years ago. US statements after the talks between the US and Russia did little to push back Russia’s demands that Ukraine cede any territory held by Russia, would not join NATO and that no foreign troops be stationed in the country. But the real damage came at a press conference Tuesday afternoon when President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war, attacked President Zelenskyy personally, and demanded that presidential elections take place as part of any peace deal. Trump and Zelenskyy have had a difficult relationship but this is the most hostile Trump has been towards the Ukrainian leader and this seems to cement Zelenskyy’s exclusion from negotiations. [More - Politico]

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine Peace Talks Begin In Riyadh, Minus Ukraine

Andrew Sheves

Good morning.

The US and Russian foreign ministers are meeting in Riyadh to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. The meetings will set the scene for future discussions but have deliberately excluded European and Ukrainian participants. [More - BBC]

Comment - These talks are taking place on the heels of last week’s comments by the US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, that Ukraine would have to concede land already held by Russia and that NATO membership was off the table. Meanwhile, US documents sent to Kyiv appear to demand significant reparations be paid to the US without any meaningful security guarantees in return. The framing of these negotiations is shocking European capitals — a feature, not a bug, of the US approach — but significantly weaken Europe, threaten to bankrupt Ukraine, and undercut trust in the US and the NATO alliance. A deal on these terms will be less Winston Churchillian and more Neville Chamberlain.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 17 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

M23 expands in Congo and European Leaders Convene Emergency Security Talks

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

🇨🇩 M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the second largest city in eastern Congo, strengthening their hold on the region. Mediation talks sponsored by the African Union are ongoing but making little progress. [More - BBC]

🇪🇺 European leaders are convening an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss European Security. These talks follow last week’s comments from US officials and President Trump announcing that he was unilaterally staring peace talks on Ukraine with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. [More - Politico]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 14 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Worldwide tariffs on US imports coming April 1 and Car Attack in Germany Deepens Anti-Immigrant Sentiment in Election Run-Up.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Happy Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day.

🚢 President Trump has ordered trade and commerce officials to design a set of reciprocal tariffs for all countries that impose any form of levy on US imports. These include import taxes but also things like value-added tax (VAT) and other point-of-sale taxes. This is a very broad and complex measure where each country would be subject to reciprocal import duties in addition to commodity duties (such as the proposed 25% tax on copper), hugely complicating supply line cost calculations for US businesses. The tariffs are set to come into force on April 1st, leaving time for bargaining, but businesses are advised to begin preparing for interruption and/or increased costs for all imported goods. [More - Bloomberg]

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine 0 - Russia 1

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇦 Ukraine cannot join NATO and must accept territorial losses, according to the US Secretary of Defense whose comments were closely followed by an announcement by President Trump that he and Russia’s Vladimir Putin had met by phone and agreed to start negotiations on Ukraine’s future. Cut out of discussions, NATO allies and Ukrainian leaders were left shocked at the announcements which concede to two of Russia’s main demands before negotiations begin. [More - Bloomberg]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 12 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Shell Nigeria Clean Up Criticisms, FCPA Pause and the Slow March Back to Conflict in Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇳🇬 Shell allegedly ignored repeated warnings about corruption and mismanagement in its $1bn oil pollution clean-up operation in Nigeria’s Ogoniland region. Whistleblowers claim that Shell was aware that the clean-up project was awarding contracts to inexperienced companies, falsifying lab results, and inflating costs. The revelations come as Shell faces a High Court trial in London this week, where 50,000 Ogoniland residents seek compensation for oil spills that occurred between 1989 and 2020. [More - BBC]

Decis Audio Briefing Demo

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Decis Audio Briefing Demo[

The world doesn’t need a new podcast (but you might)

Andrew Sheves

🙀 My mind is officially blown.

I tested Google’s Notebook LM (no, I don’t know why this took me so long to test) and am really impressed with the results. I gave it all of last week’s regional reports and it turned these into a conversation-style podcast. But it’s not just two voices reading the reports verbatim: it’s a natural-sounding discussion.

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Gaza ceasefire teeters; Indian forces kill 31 rebels; Cook Islands-China deal sparks tension

Andrew Sheves

Good morning.

🇵🇸 The ceasefire in Gaza is close to collapse as Hamas has suspended hostage transfers, accusing Israel of “violations and its failure to comply with the terms of the agreement.” Israel has responded by placing its military on high alert, while Donald Trump has said that if all hostages are not released by Saturday, the deal should be scrapped. (Note, the deal does not call for all hostages to be released by Saturday but in a phased transfer through March 1.) [Live coverage - BBC]

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.

Prepare for More Trade Uncertainty

Last week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains.

Meanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [More Bloomberg] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [More - Politico]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

ICC Sanctions and Ukraine’s Rare Earth in Trump’s Sights

Andrew Sheves ⚖️ The US has sanctioned the International Criminal Court, levying travel and financial restrictions on senior ICC staff and family members. This follows the court’s charges against Israeli politicians last year in connection with the war in Gaza but at the signing, President Trump said any court member who opened up cases against the US or other allies would be similarly sanctioned. These sanctions originated in Congress last year and the US is not a signatory to the ICC charter but Trump’s move further weakens the Court and reinforces the perception that it is only there to pursue criminals from the Global South. [More - BBC]

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Quiet, too quiet….

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

No headlines today.

I do have something exciting to announce tomorrow when I’ll be sharing full details on how to access the complete news feed as an API. That way, you’ll be able to have the stories, updates, and stability ratings piped directly into your app, website, and even spreadsheets.

More tomorrow.

Daily News for Curious Minds

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Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Shooting in Belgium and Sweden and Trump’s Plan to Occupy Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇧🇪 Belgian police are looking for two to three gunmen who are on the run in Brussels after a shooting outside a metro station this morning. There were no casualties in the incident at around 06:15 local this morning, but stations were closed, and morning rush hour was disrupted. The men were armed with Klashnokov-style weapons and remain on the loose. [More - BBC]

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Killing the chickens to frighten the monkeys

Andrew Sheves

** In partnership with **

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A commentator on Bloomberg yesterday quoted the proverb “kill the chickens to frighten the monkeys” and explained how Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are actually a signal to China: ’See how tough I can be on my allies. Now imagine what I could do to you.’ Unfortunately, no matter how you make the monkeys feel, you’ve still killed a few chickens.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tariffs All the Way Down and Musk Targets USAID

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.

Tariffs All the Way Down

It was tariffs all the way down in Washington, Ottowa, and Mexico City this weekend as President Trump’s 25% import taxes kicked in, spurring retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico.

Meanwhile, in addition to attacking close allies, 10% tariffs were also levied against Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg]

According to some report, in addition to the tarrifs, de minimus entries and duty drawback rules concerning Chinese imports are being suspended. De minimus rules allow small packages from China to enter the US without duty being paid - this is what the entire dropshipping industry, fast fashion, and half of Amazon stores rely on. So imports to the US are interrupted or more expensive.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Storms approach California, Tariff-eve for Canada and Mexico, UNRWA Shuts and DC Airport Disaster

Andrew Sheves ☔️ An atmospheric river approaching America’s west coast is expected to cause flooding and landslides. Recent wildfires have destroyed significant numbers of trees and undergrowth, which increases the chances of mudslides and runoffs in these areas. [More - BBC]

🛑 President Trump confirmed his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning February 1 (Saturday). He was less definitive on China, so it is unclear if the proposed 10% tax would be levied on Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg]

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

M23 reinforce hold in the DRC and al-Sharaa named interim President in Syria.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇨🇩 Fighting between the M23 rebels and the Congolese military has intensified in the Goma region of Eastern Congo. Frustration and anger have also boiled over in the capital, Kinshasa, where embassies have been attacked by locals, blaming Europe and the US for supporting Rwanda, which is believed to be sponsoring the rebels. Regional peace talks are scheduled by DCR PresidentPresident Félix Tshisekedi is refusing to take part. [More - BBC]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Crowd surge in India, Trump threatens Taiwan plus the Unintended Consequences of the Transition Kick In

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇳 A crowd surge at a Hindi festival in Northern India raised fears of multiple casualties but early reports are unclear. Up to 100 million people are anticipated at the Kumbh Mela festival in Sangam where devotees gather every 12 years to bathe in the confluence of two sacred rivers [More - BBC]

Reasoning Engine Benchmarks - Jan 2025

Tue, 28 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

DeepSeek R1 vs Claude Sonnet 3.5

There’s been a lot of excitement around the Chinese Deepseek r1 model that was released last week. Deepseek is a reasoning, chain of thought (CoT) model that’s shaken things up due to the comparatively tiny budget ($ 6 million, which is probably OpenAI’s o1 cost to run its warm-up sequence) needed to train a frontier model of this sort.

(There’s also been a fair amount of dread as US AI models are no longer the only game in town and Deepseek was considerably cheaper than an of the US alternatives. US firms were hammered in Monday’s trading with over $100bn

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus Plus Stability Ratings

Tue, 28 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Andrew Sheves

Good morning. Apologies for the lack of a SITREP yesterday. The stability ratings are included below.

Country Stability Ratings

🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania is Weak

🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak

🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable

🇦🇴 Angola is Weak

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable

🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak

🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak

🇦🇺 Australia is Stable

🇦🇹 Austria is Weak

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak

🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like.

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.

For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.

TikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus Corrected

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected

What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like.

Andrew Sheves Apologies but an earlier version of the SITREP went out with some errors in it. Here’s the corrected version.

Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.

For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Turkey / PKK Ceasefire Rumors and Houthis Suspend Read Sea Attacks

Andrew Sheves Good morning. A brief reprieve from the Trump whirlwind…

🇹🇷 The Middle East Institute’s Gönül Tol is reporting that **a deal between the Turkish government and the PKK is planned **that would see the Kurdish group cease military operations on February 15th. In return, there would be an amnesty in Turkey and a redrafting of the constitution to provide greater recognition of the Kurds. The full post follows.

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 22 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tariff uncertainty, West Bank raids and Troop surge in Columbia.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🧾 Tariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high.

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus

Trump’s Day One EO Blizzard and Palestinians Return to Ruins in Gaza

Andrew Sheves

Good morning. Before we cover Monday’s frenetic Day One for the incoming Trump administration, some stark images and statistics illustrate the immense challenge that still lies ahead for the Palestinians.

🇵🇸 There are estimates that 92% of housing in Gaza has been destroyed. So, while the current ceasefire allows families to move back into cleared areas, very few have homes to go to. [More - BBC]

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 20 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The rules for Trump 2.0

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.

Allow me an observation on the cusp of the second Trump Presidency

It’s Inauguration Day and DC is full of two kinds of Trump supporters. Billionaires spent the weekend celebrating at black-tie events, anticipating a freer, free market, looser regulation, and a more mercantile approach to everything from lawmaking to foreign policy. Meanwhile, Trump voters who couldn’t stump up millions of dollars in support are tramping around a wet, snowy DC, unable to attend the (now indoors) inauguration.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel split by peace deal

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

Despite last-minute jitters, Israel and Hamas agreed to final ceasefire terms on Thursday but now the focus shifts to the Israeli cabinet which is currently meeting to vote on the deal [More - Washington Post]. The cabinet’s far-right members are vehemently opposed to the deal, threatening to bring down the government if it is approved.[More - Reuters] Many of their supporters spent Thursday night protesting the agreement, calling it a ‘Hamas victory’.

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Gaza peace deal

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🕊️ Israel and Hamas have finally agreed to ceasefire terms to end the 15-month-long conflict. The deal, due to start Sunday, reportedly takes place in three stages.

**Stage One - **Six weeks.

Full ceasefire.

Hostage exchange: 33 hostages (women, children, elderly, and the sick but no men) held by Hamas will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

Israeli troops to withdraw from all populated areas in Gaza.

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Yoon arrested in Seoul, mining siege in South Africa and EU considers additional Russian sanctions

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇰🇷 Police in South Korea finally arrested ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol in relation to his impeachment in early January following his imposition of martial law in December. Yoon has been avoiding police and refusing to cooperate with the authorities since his removal from power in December.[More - BBC]

🇿🇦 South African police rescued 82 trapped miners and recovered the bodies of 36 more from an illegal mine in Stilfontein, south of Johannesburg. Hundreds more miners remain trapped underground. Mining organizations accuse the police of sealing the miners underground, while the police argue that the miners refuse to leave the mine for fear of arrest. [More - Al Jazeera]

Tuesday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus

Peace deal nears in Gaza, Lebanon’s new PM and Trump cabinet picks begin confirmation hearings.

Andrew Sheves

Good morning. xx

🕊️ Statements from officials in Doha and Washington indicate that a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is close to agreement. Several influential Israeli politicians on the right vehemently oppose a ceasefire and a similar deal has been under discussion since May last year so a breakthrough is not guaranteed. [More - BBC]

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Syria reconstruction conference, Lebanon’s new President gets to work, Gaza peace talks, and North Korean troops captured in Ukraine. Plus flooding in Mayotte and fires continue in Los Angeles.

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Some weekend headlines to prepare you for the week ahead.

🇸🇾 Saudi Arabia hosted regional and European diplomats at a conference to discuss the rebuilding of Syria and the country’s rehabilitation into the global community. Saudi diplomats stressed that easing sanctions and delisting members of the new regime from terrorist suspect lists are key steps to allowing Syria to recover after the 50-year reign of the Assad regime. [More - Politico]

The Domain Speciality Paradox and Implications for AI-Assisted Analysis

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This is a ‘living’ article which will be updated as progress is made in tests and other research emerges. The original articile was written on Jaunuary 13 2025 and major edits will be dated.

There are also demos of this process in action, the latest being the presentation to the Virtual AI Engineer Summit in NY in March 2025.

Updates to add

Utilize domain-specific heuristics (rules of thumb) for few-shot training

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Machado appears in Caracas and Musk seeks to oust Starmer.

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick headlines today.

🇻🇪 Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared at a rally in Caracas on Thursday and was briefly detained by police. Machado has been in hiding since July’s rigged election and appeared a day before President Maduro’s inauguration, planned for today (Friday). Machado and her exiled running mate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia remain highly popular in Venezuela and her quick release indicates that she is still a great threat to Maduro’s government which the US and other countries fail to recognize. [More - Washington Post]

Thursday SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Attack in N’Djamena, US Sanctions RSF and fire spreads in Los Angeles. Plus AI workshop today

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇹🇩 Armed fighters, suspected to be members of Boko Haram, stormed Chad’s Presidential palace shortly after a visit by the Chinese Foreign Minister. Government forces thwarted the attack, leaving 18 of the 24 attackers dead, along with one member of the security forces. [More - Al Jazeera]

🇸🇩 On Monday, the US sanctioned the leaders of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, accusing the group of conducting a genocide. Both the RSF and Sudanese militaries have caused indiscriminate harm to civilians during the conflict but until now, the US has refrained from leveling sanctions on the RSF due to the group’s close support to the UAE. [More - Washington Post]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump’s Geopolitical Threats and Wildfire in California

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines from the US today.

🇺🇸 **President-elect Trump held a very wide-ranging press conference Tuesday full of geopolitical threats and declarations **including:

Refusing to rule out using force to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland

Continuing to suggest that Canada should join the US

Promising to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America

How much of this is posturing and how much is sincere remains unclear but it is a reminder of how much geopolitical uncertainty and turbulence will emanate from the incoming administration. [More - Axios]

Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 07 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trudeau out, M23 increase hold in Goma and earthquake in Tibet.

Andrew Sheves

Good morning. Three quick headlines

🇨🇦 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down, proroguing (recessing) Canada’s parliament until March 24th while the Liberal party find a new leader. Canada’s conservatives will want to force a general election, and this leaves Trudeau — who will stay on until a replacement is found — as a lame duck in any negotiations with the incoming Trump administration. [More - CBC]

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 06 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine reinforces position in Kursk, US offshore drilling ban, Trudeau to resign and Musk doubles-down on Europe’s hard right.

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the first full week of 2025. Let’s get after it.

🇺🇦 Ukraine began a new offensive into the Russian territory it holds in the Kursk region. Ukraine has held this since August, and reinforcing its hold on Russian ground will strengthen Kyiv’s hand in any upcoming peace talks. [More - Al Jazera]

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 03 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US House Speak elections, no apparent links in US terror attacks and dockworker strike talks. Plus, Syria’s interim government starts diplomatic outreach.

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some headlines to set you up for the weekend.

🚢 US dockworkers held off from striking over Christmas but that deal expires on January 15th. Talks begin next week to avoid a dockworker strike and automation will be a major theme issue to resolve. [More - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 02 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

New Year attacks in the US and Russian gas stops flowing to Europe

Andrew Sheves Good morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking.

There were two apparent terrorist attacks in the US. In New Orleans, a driver deliberately drove into a crowd celebrating New Year, killing 15. While in Las Vegas the driver of a vehicle detonated his Cybertruck outside the Trump Tower killing himself but no others. [More - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Happy New Year!

Andrew Sheves Good morning and a Happy New Year from windy Washington, DC. Wishing you a successful, safe and fulfilling 2025.

Just the numbers and regional info today and tomorrow, but the full SITREP will be back on Friday and next week I’ll be sharing the 2025 look-ahead.

Key Metrics

WTI is $70.38 (Down)

Low |— < —————-| High

Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

Low |—— < ————-| High

Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 31 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

German Chancellor condemns Musk’s AfD support, Chinese hackers infiltrate the US Treasury and gang violence in Trinidad and Tobago

Andrew Sheves

Good morning. Two quick headlines today.

🇩🇪 The outgoing German chancellor, Olas Scholz, has condemned Elon Musk’s support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, accusing him of election interference. In addition to his support for Donald Trump and the AfD, Musk also supports the UK’s anti-immigration Reform Party. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Russia admits to downing a civilian airliner, grim end of year conflict statistics and RIP Jimmy Carter

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the last Monday of 2024.

Some weekend headlines and stories that might have slipped by over the last week.

Russia admitted that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on December 25th was hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire. The Azeri President has accepted that this was an accident, but it highlights the danger for airlines operating near conflict zones, even where there is no official airspace warning in place. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 27 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Africa summary

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Just the metrics and the regional report today.

Need Help Crisis Planning?

It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.

The problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it’s hard to know where to start.

Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 26 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Pro-Assad Resistance in Syria and Russia Targeting Transnistria (Again)

Andrew Sheves Good morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking.

Despite the calm in the majority of Syria following the HTS takeover, several majority Alawite towns in Syria remain pro-Assad strongholds. An ambush on Tuesday left 14 HTS-affiliated police dead and 10 wounded as the police tried to arrest a former regime figure. Currently, this doesn’t seem to indicate the beginnings of a counter-HTS insurgency, but it is a reminder that Syria remains somewhat fractured and that many of the former-regime figures are implicated in Assad’s crimes and will do whatever they can to avoid capture. [SOURCE - BBC]

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 25 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Happy Chrismukkah 🎅 🕎

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those celebrating.

Just the numbers and regional info today.

Key Metrics

WTI is $71.03 (Down)

Low |—- < —————| High

Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

Low |—— < ————-| High

EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

Low | < ——————-| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

Low |———- < > ———| High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

New French Cabinet: plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Greetings from Aberdeen, Scotland, where we’re enjoying a whopping 6 ½ hours of daylight today….

Two headlines from Europe are worth tracking as a taster of what things will look like in 2025.

In France, Prime Minister François Bayrou selected Eric Lombard as finance minister, tasked with finding a budget to satisfy all parties in a divided French parliament. Budget concerns were the stated reason for France’s opposition parties bringing down the previous government, so finding an acceptable solution is key for France’s stability, but the view is that Bayrou / Lombard will not significantly differ from the previous government. [SOURCE - Financial Times]

New Metrics Demo

Mon, 23 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

New Metrics Demo[

No Live Ratings Today

Andrew Sheves Good morning - I’m transitioning the newsletters to a new system so am resynching everything, meaning that there are no updated country baseline ratings today. (These are still available and cuup to date in the workspace).

Instead, here’s what the updated SITREP metrics will look like.

Key Metrics

WTI is $71.03 (Down)

Low |—- < —————| High

Wheat is $197.372 (Down)

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 20 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Shutdown looms in DC and US Diplomats in Damascus

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick updates to kick us off.

The US government seems headed for a shutdown as House Republicans scuttled their own stopgap bill on Thursday night. This follows their rejection of a long-negotiated bipartisan spending bill after opposition from Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Government funding runs out at midnight. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

In another positive step in Syria’s transition, US representatives have met with the HTS-led interim government in Syria. [SOURCE - BBC]

Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Shutdown looms in DC and what this means for 2025.

Andrew Sheves Good morning. One big headline worth considering today.

US Republicans in the House pulled a bipartisan spending bill that would have funded the government until Spring following Tweets condemning the bill from Elon Musk and opposition from President-elect Donald Trump. Current funding runs out at midnight on Friday, and the house is due to recess this weekend. [SOURCE - BBC]

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Streamlined version

Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines to share today, let’s get right to the ratings and news.

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$70.52

💵 **USD:EUR **

$1.05

₿ Bitcoin

$104,564

As at Dec 18, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 17 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Russian General Assassination, Mass Graves in Syria and Vanuatu Earthquake

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Some quick headlines worth tracking.

Ukraine assassinated Russian General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. Kirillov was head of the Russian chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons program and a Russian military spokesman. [SOURCE - France24]

A large A 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck near Vanuatu’s capital, causing widespread destruction but casualty numbers and the full extent of the damage are still unclear. [[SOURCE - BBC](http://A 7.3 magnitude earthquake has struck near Vanuatu’s capital Port Vila)]

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 16 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Headlines from a busy weekend and a big product update

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

It was a busy weekend: here are the headlines.

South Korea’s Parliament voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for his declaration of martial law two weeks ago. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo takes over as acting president while the impeachment process continues. Courts have 180 days to decide Yopon’s fate. [SOURCE - BBC]

Anti-EU candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected president of Georgia, raising fears that the country was being pulled back into Moscow’s orbit. [SOURCE - AP]

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

A Positive Note on Syria and Weekend Long Reads

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

This time last week, I wrote, “Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight”.

How wrong I was: Damascus fell with very little opposition, if any, and the transition to a caretaker government in Syria has been measured, calm, and nothing short of remarkable. The country has a long, complicated path ahead but the first few days of post-Assad Syria give hope for cautious optimism.

Getting the Risk Assessment to Work For Us

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

I’ve had a lot of conversations about risk assessments recently and just finished a new feature in the Decis platform, both of which prompted this thought: What if we have things backwards? What if our risk assessment updated us instead of the other way around?

We spend days — sometimes weeks — building a comprehensive risk assessment to understand our risks and build mitigation measures. But these are snapshots in time and can quickly become overtaken by events. That’s when we move from risk management to incident management or at minimum, we have to review our mitigation.

Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Bulgaria and Romania Join Schengen and Turkish Diplomacy in East Africa

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines on positive diplomatic developments.

Bulgaria and Romania were accepted into the EU’s Schengen visa scheme, which allows visa-free travel around the European Union for residents or visa holders of countries that are members of the scheme. [SOURCE - BBC]

Turkey brokered a deal between Somalia and Ethiopia, defusing tensions over Ethiopia’s plan to open a port in the independent Somaliland region. The deal commits both parties to talks to establish improved diplomatic and commercial ties, easing decades-long tensions between the two East African neighbors. [SOURCE - Al Jazeera]

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Syria transition continues peacefully and wildfire in CA.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

The Syrian opposition continues to establish control of the government in coordination with members of the Assad regime, continuing the surprisingly orderly and measured takeover of power. Isreal is continuing to destroy military installations across the country, reportedly hitting almost 500 sites in the last 48 hours. [SOURCE - AL Jazeera]

A significant wildfire, named the Franklin Fire, continues to burn in Malibu County CA, a major suburb of Los Angeles. The suburb is popular with celebrities, and many well-known figures are among those being forced to evacuate. [SOURCE - BBC] [SOURCE - CalFire map]

Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Israeli strikes and incursions in Syria as the HTS transition continues

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines from Syria.

Israel has conducted over 250 missile strikes around Syria and pushed deeper into the Golan Heights in the last 48 hours, in response to the fall of Bashir al-Assaed and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) takeover. Israel has described the seizure of territory as a temporary security measure, but governments in the region are describing this as an illegal occupation. [SOURCE - al Jazeera]

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Syria without Assad, Election Rerun in Romania, and Impeachment Fails in Seoul

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

It was a monumental weekend in and for the Middle East as the Assad regime fell after 50 years of brutal rule in Syria. After a startlingly fast and relatively bloodless sweep of the country by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels, HTS is now in charge of Damascus and most of Western and central Syria from the Turkish border to Jordan. I was wrong in my assessment on Friday as I anticipated elements of the regime to put up some kind of resistance, but it seems that the majority of the military either surrendered or melted away, allowing the rebels to take Damascus essentially unopposed.

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The Syrian opposition reaches Homs and weekend long reads

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. One big story to watch this weekend is what happens Syria.

Syrian government forces quickly retreated from the city of Hama on Thursday, allowing the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led opposition to quickly take the city. Alawites were seen fleeing the city in advance of the rebels but many others seemed to welcome the rebels. As of Friday morning ET, the opposition forces are now close to the nearby city of Homs, which is the last city between their north base and the capital, Damascus. [BBC Live Tracker]

Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 05 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

French government collapse, crackdowns in Georgia and bitcoin goes to the moon

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

The French government collapsed after far-right and far-left parties united in a vote of no confidence, forcing out Prime Minister Michel Barnier. What happens next is unclear. Elections cannot be called until July leaving President Macron to try to establish some form of functional government within the existing Assembly, where the three main groups are riven by differences. [SOURCE and long read - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Martial law in Seoul and a Clash in the South China Sea

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Citing vague and unspecific concerns about his political opposition, South Korean President Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday. Six hours of chaos and confusion resulted before Parliament and his cabinet forced him to overturn the decree. Yoon now faces impeachment changes that will go to a vote in Seoul’s parliament on Wednesday. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 03 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Turbulence in Europe and the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is shaky

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

There are three big stories worth tracking today, but first, it’s worth pulling a few of these together.

Comment

The macro trend at the moment is increasing turbulence and weakness across Europe through a confluence of factors: internal political wrangling (France, below), economic difficulties (Germany), Russian hybrid warfare (telecoms sabotage, below), and the seeming undoing of the ‘color revolutions’ as eastern european countries drift back towards Moscow (e.g., Georgia).

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 02 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Opposition advances in Syria, protests in Georgia and Romania, and Trudeau reacts to Trump tariff threats

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

There were several major events over the weekend worth keeping track of, but before we get to those, a quick seasonal health warning because this can be the most dangerous time of the year for a lot of organizations.

Wait. Didn’t Andy Williams tell us this was The Most Wonderful Time of the Year?

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings and headlines plus some weekend long reads

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

Just the ratings and headlines today as I digest Thursday’s feast. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom for the long reads.

Black Friday Sale Gift

It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.

Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Thanksgiving edition 🦃

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

We’re celebrating Thanksgiving so it’s just the data and ratings today, no news.

A quick ask

*There’s a poll at the bottom of the email and it would be incredibly useful if you could take 30 seconds to let us know how we’re doing. Good, bad, ugly? Just let us know. Thank you *🙏

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$69.19

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 27 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Ceasefire in Lebanon and tension in Pakistan

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

(Reminder: Thursday and Friday’s SITREPS will only contain the stability ratings as we are observing Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day .)

In Pakistan, supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan have been pushed out of central Islamabad by security forces, although they have not fully dispersed and thousands remain in the city. [SOURCE - BBC]

Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, pausing the year-old conflict in Lebanon. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

More Trump tariffs and huge protests in Islamabad

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Three headlines for you.

Citing the flow of drugs and migrants across the US border, President-elect Trump threatened additional tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China. These appear to be in addition to the blanket 10% tariffs Trump plans to impose on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

In Pakistan, protestors demanding the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have reached the central D Chowk square in Islamabad. The situation is tense and fluid, and what happens next is uncertain but Khan has asked his supporters to occupy the center of Islamabad until their demands are met. The BBC has live coverage here.

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 25 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Yemenis in Ukraine, election shock in Romania and Lebanon ceasefire rumors

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Monday.

A quick scheduling note for Thanksgiving week. The Thursday and Friday editions of the SITREP will not include the headlines or market data. Country stability ratings and news summaries will be unchanged.

Weekend Stories of Note

President-elect Trump made several additional nominations to cabinet and senior advisor roles over the weekend. Politico has a handy cabinet tracker here to help keep track of nominees and their positions on key issues.

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 22 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Africa round up plus the ICC issues arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

Two headlines of note.

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. The ICC warrants accuse Netanyahu and Gallant of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Deif is also accused of crimes against humanity in connection with his role in the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel. Deif is reported to have been killed in July but the ICC maintains that it cannot verify that. Similar warrants against Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar were dropped after their deaths. [SOURCE - Washington Post]

Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Focus

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP for November 21, 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

We begin with some overnight headlines worthy of your attention, and don’t miss the great, in-depth piece from Bloomberg about the Crowdstrike outage at the end.

The US vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution for the War in Gaza, causing . [SOURCE - BBC] This came a day after Russia had been condemned for vetoing a similar resolution concerning the civil war in Sidan.

Decis SITREP: Europe and Mena Focus

Wed, 20 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP for Nov 20, 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Three quick headlines.

Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan’s civil war. [SOURCE - BBC] *Note, Sudan remains one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises but seems overshadowed by the wars in Ukraine and the Levant. Read more on the humanitirna situation in Sudan from ReliefWeb. *

The Tunisian opposition leader was badly injured in an acid attack and had been hospitalized. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] The exact motive remains unclear but Tunisia’s opposition has been slowly whittled away since Kais Saied’s unconvincing electoral victory in October.

Decis SITREP: Americas Focus

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP for Nov 19 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two quick headlines worth noting.

An undersea cable between Germany and Finland was severed on Monday. The German Defence Minister noted that “nobody believes that these cables were cut accidentally”. [SOURCE - BBC] Note - Russia is the likely culprit here, and this fits with Moscow’s larger ‘hybrid war’ strategy they are pursuing across Europe.* See the **Washington Post *for more.

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

A quick editorial note* - The minute I hit ‘send’ on Friday, I realized that I had the SITREP schedule backward: it’s better to get the complete ratings on a Monday than the country comparisons as part of the regional. I also want to cover any big events that took place over the weekend on a Monday so the schedule going forward will be as follows.*

Friday Stability Roundup and a Deep Dive

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Friday Stability Roundup and a Deep Dive[

What Does Trump 2.0 Mean Internationally?

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Monday through Thursday, we cover each region with the stability situation and regional news but Fridays are when we take a deeper dive into an issue and give you a rundown of the baseline stability ratings for each country.

Today’s deep dive is a look at what the second Trump term means on a geopolitical basis.

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Thu, 14 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP for Nov 14 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Intro

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$68.76

💵 **USD:EUR **

$1.051 (Price of 1EUR in USD)

₿ Bitcoin

$91,208.50

As at Nov 14, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

Decis SITREP: Asia and Oceania Roundup

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP for Nov 13 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Something that’s not appearing in the news very much — and therefore slipping by the models — are a series of violent attacks in China including a mass stabbing and a motorist killing 35 people in a deliberate attack. Chinese authorities are quick to clamp down on any event that suggests a lack of control, and news of these events is suppressed, as reported by the BBC.

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Roundup

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Decis SITREP for 12 November 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Here’s today’s SITREP covering Europe, The Middle East and North Africa.

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$68.52

💵 **USD:EUR **

$ 1.062*

₿ Bitcoin

$87,015.19

*Price of 1EUR in USD. Values updated ~0600ET Nov 12. Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine

Decis SITREP: Americas Roundup

Mon, 11 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Decis SITREP for Nov 11, 2011

Andrew Sheves Good morning and welcome back to the Decis Daily SITREPS. (What are these?)

Please thank a Veteran for their service today.

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$69.02

🚢 Containers (FBX Index)

$3,564.2

💵 **USD:EUR **

$1.066 (Price of 1EUR in USD)

₿ Bitcoin

$82,102.88

As at Nov 11, 07:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Reviving the Decis SITREP

Sun, 10 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Daily briefings are coming your way again

Andrew Sheves Happy Sunday

I wanted to give you a heads-up that, starting tomorrow, the Decis SITREP will be rolling into your inbox again.

Unlike previous versions, I’m going back to basics and keeping things simple, reminding myself that we’re not a forecasting shop, meme factory, or provider of cocktail-party intelligence.

There are plenty of those folks out there already.

But, what we’re short on is data and intelligence. And data-driven intelligence is what we need to make decisions

How to Use AI as a Security Risk Manager

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000

How to Use AI as a Security Risk Manager[

An AI AI White Paper

Andrew Sheves (I’ll keep this short as I don’t want to suddenly spam your inbox after weeks of silence.)

I’ve been collaborating with Doug Gray from HumanRisks on an AI white paper these last few months, and I’m pleased to announce that it’s now published.

We took a much deeper dive into the topic than in any of our previous work, conducting a thorough review of how AI can assist security risk managers. We based this on the most recent academic studies of how knowledge workers make best use of these tools and aligned these AI benefits with identified gaps and challenges in Security Risk Management.

UK Riots, Ukrainian Troops Strike Deep into Russia and a New Leader in Bangladesh

Mon, 12 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0000

UK Riots, Ukrainian Troops Strike Deep into Russia and a New Leader in Bangladesh[

Decis SITREP for August 12 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

This week, we’re looking at the recent violent anti-immigration protests by far-right mobs in the UK alongside Ukraine’s surprise offensive deep into Russian territory. Plus, things have calmed dramatically in Bangladesh as the new Prime Minster settles in.

(By the way, this week’s newsletter is a bit of an experiment as I am letting the AIs do the majority of the writing for the updates. Let me know what you think.)

Too Quiet in the Levant, Nigeria's 10-days of Rage and What's Hungary Up To?

Mon, 05 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Too Quiet in the Levant, Nigeria’s 10-days of Rage and What’s Hungary Up To?[

Plus Changes in Bangladesh.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

A tense weekend in the Levant has given way to an anxious week as everyone waits to see how Iran and Hezbollah respond to recent attacks by Israel. Meanwhile, Hungary’s Victor Orban continues to be Europe’s most troublesome family member, while youths in Nigeria are staging ‘ten days of rage’ to protest economic conditions.

Israel: Downgraded to WEAK

Wed, 31 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK[
🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK

🇮🇱 Israel: Downgraded to WEAK

Internal and External Pressures Are Pulling Israel Towards Instability

Andrew Sheves Good morning

The increasing pressure on Israel has made me question the ongoing rating of STABLE for several months now, but events over the last week — both internal and external — have led me to the conclusion that the country’s stability rating should be downgraded to WEAK.

Israel / Hezbollah Heats Up, Maduro Declares Victory and Bangladesh Protest Effects

Mon, 29 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Israel / Hezbollah Heats Up, Maduro Declares Victory and Bangladesh Protest Effects[

Decis Monday Briefing & Weekly Country Stability Matrix - July 29, 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

A Hezbollah attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday significantly ratcheted up tension on Israel’s northern border. Israel has yet to respond (as of Mondat am ET), but careful calibration is needed to avoid this boiling over into all-out conflict, which would be disastrous for Israel.

Eyes On Bangladesh, America and Venezuela

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Eyes On Bangladesh, America and Venezuela[

Decis Monday Briefing & Weekly Country Stability Matrix - July 22 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Here’s a quick round-up of some significant stories to help you prepare for the week(s) ahead. But first, the stability matrix.

Apologies but you’ll need to turn your phone and zoom in if you’re reading this on a mobile - I’ll work on enlarging the matrix over time.

Better Decisions, Faster

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Better Decisions, Faster[

Welcome to Decis Intelligence

I’ve never met a capable decision-maker who didn’t want the best available intelligence.

Nor have I met a slow team that excelled.

However, too much data — an excess of noise — drowns out the vital signal decision-makers need, so more isn’t better.

And in a faster-paced, more connected world, there isn’t the time to wait for tomorrow’s morning brief or for an analyst to be available to hop on a call.

Unknown Knowns

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.” Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld February 12, 2002.

The Risk Manager’s Dilemma

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Lloyds recently announced that they’re cutting a large number of risk managers because the group was hindering “intelligent risk-taking” (Bloomberg). This will pan out in a couple of years either in the bank’s earnings results or fines from the regulators but, whatever the outcome, this is a good example of the risk manager’s dilemma: how to balance:

The law and regulatory requirements
The business’s objectives and culture
The individual’s sense of what’s right

The dilemma is that these three won’t always be in alignment. And often, they shouldn’t be: a risk management system works best when it’s under a healthy degree of tension. We want a robust back-and-forth between an aggressive COO and a cautious CRO. That’s going to help the firm take manageable risks without getting into too much trouble.

The Right Tool for the Job: Getting the best out of AI for analytical tasks

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Before we jump in, don’t be put off by the technical aspects of this: the overall concept is pretty straightforward and something you can put into practice yourself (I explain how to at the end).

Using the Right Tool for the Job

Despite their incredible capabilities, even the best LLM*-based AI suffers from a tendency to exaggerate or make up facts – AKA hallucinate. That’s not such an issue when you’re asking it to help tweak some text or brainstorm ideas, but it’s a big problem when you’re trying to use AI for analysis. (*Large language model.)

Threats are accelerating: so should we

Tue, 02 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

We are moving too slowly

The existential threat that businesses and many countries are facing currently is not from artificial intelligence, climate change, the danger of another financial meltdown or a conflict.

The threat they need to address most urgently is an inability to move quickly and the events that we are facing far outpace our ability to understand, orientate, make decisions, and act.

(Spoiler: it’s impossible to plan your way out of a problem. At some point, we have to take action.)

Speed vs Accuracy. Speed (Obviously) But How?

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The DCDR agents made a mistake the other day. The vessel’s name was incorrect in the original report on the bridge collapse in Baltimore. Not just a little wrong, completely wrong: it was the name of an actual vessel, but one that didn’t appear in any of the details supplied to the model.

(Thanks, Mark, for picking that up.)

So, I’ve added some additional quality control checks to reduce errors in the reports without sacrificing too much speed.

Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela-Guyana and Israel-Gaza

Tue, 05 Mar 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela–Guyana and Israel – Gaza[
Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela–Guyana and Israel – Gaza

Three Hot Takes: Yemen, Venezuela–Guyana and Israel – Gaza

DCDR Analysis for March 5 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

**Welcome to the SITREP for March 5th, 2024. **

As promised, I’m going to try to add some more analysis in addition to the country stability reports. So here are three hot takes on Yemen, Venezuela —Guyana, and Israel — Gaza.

Three Flashpoints to Watch

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥[
Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥

Three Flashpoints to Watch 🔥

Sometimes, things get worse… before they get worse.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Welcome to a very late DCDR Research report for February 22, 2024

Why so late?

The DCDR analysis engine is working very well (honestly, it’s way better out of the box than I had anticipated). So, I’ll normally let the model do most of the work and I don’t need to add any commentary.

Deep Dive: Shipping and Supply Chain Disruptions

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Deep Dive: Shipping & Supply Chain Disruptions[

A deep dive into how to track and prepare for supply chain interruptions

Andrew Sheves Welcome to this week’s PRO Research report. These are long-form analyses of something that’s important to decision-makers, giving them the background and context on the issue along with some insight into how things might develop.

This week’s report focuses on maritime supply chains, what can interrupt these, and how you can make your supply chain more resilient.

Essential Rare Earth Minerals and Base Metals: Supply and Stability

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Essential Rare Earth Minerals and Base Metals: Supply and Stability[

DCDR Deep Dive Report

Andrew Sheves Welcome to the first of the DCDR PRO Research reports: long-form analysis of something that’s important to decision-makers, giving them the background and context on the issue along with some insight into how things might develop.

These reports will be part of the upcoming PRO subscription that starts soon.

Where possible, these reports also include applicable mitigation measures where there are across-the-board steps that every organization can implement. That way, you’ll understand the issue, can start determining what it means for your organization, and start taking action as quickly as possible.

Risk and Crisis Consulting is Facing its Kodak Moment

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Why the Industry is in Trouble

Despite being the inventor of the first digital camera in the late 1970s, Kodak famously ignored the switch to digital photography, losing the company its commanding market lead and significantly hurting the business.

Risk and crisis consulting is currently facing its own Kodak moment.

AI and machine learning tools reduce the effort, time, and cost of routine risk and crisis tasks by well over 90%. Consultancies believe they can harness these efficiencies to improve their profit margins and assume that only the largest firms will want, or be able, to develop their own tools.

Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖[
Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖

Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖

I’ve been building custom knowledge agents (AKA chatbots) for a few weeks, and my friend Greg suggested I share some background on how you build these tools and why. The ‘how’ is covered in a short demo video towards the end of the piece, but before you start building nodes, it’s worth thinking about what these new chatbots are and what they can do for you.

Why, and How, To Build Custom Chatbots 🤖

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

First, we should ask what chatbots are and why they weren’t so helpful before.

How Businesses Can Plan for AI

Tue, 15 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Lots of businesses are wondering what AI means for them, and it’s essential that companies have an AI strategy, even if that strategy is to do nothing. But even if the answer is ‘do nothing,’ you can only get there by asking the ‘what if’ questions first.

But what are those questions?

We’ll get to those in a moment, but here’s a quick recap of why this is such a difficult discussion.

Risk and Security Managers are Positive about AI

Thu, 10 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Risk and Security Managers Positive on AI

Last week, I had a great session with ASIS at the AI for Risk and Security Managers webinar. As part of the session, I outlined the three questions organizations should ask themselves concerning AI and how it affects their business.

How could AI give us an advantage?
How could AI challenge our business?
How could AI threaten or kill our business?

(Read the full article here to give you the context of the questions and some additional considerations.)

How AI will Affect Your Job

Tue, 08 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

AI isn’t finally here – it’s been here for a while in everything from the autocorrect on your phone and the recommendations you get on Netflix – but it’s now in the mainstream. And thankfully, we’re having some of the hard conversations we failed to have when other technologies like social media were emerging. These will be long, complicated, and potentially inconclusive discussions, but at least they’re happening.

Clearly, a significant element of the discussion is around what AI means for work, and, as with most things, the answer is a variation of ‘it depends’ because every business and industry will be affected differently.

The Cost of Crisis

Fri, 04 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

It’s always tough to answer the question, ‘How much damage does a reputational crisis cause?‘ Unlike a business interruption or accident, the cost of reputational crises is much harder to determine.

Unfortunately, whether you’re in the early stages of a crisis or trying to get a leadership team to find a preparedness program, ‘How much could this cost?’ is the kind of thing crisis managers get asked all the time.

Business Continuity in a Nutshell

Wed, 02 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

I wrote this on a beautiful sunny morning last week, sitting on the Isle of Skye, enjoying the sun washing over the mountains with a fresh coffee and a copy of business continuity principles.

Different day, different highland view, but you get the idea

OK, so I enjoyed the sunrise, mountains, and coffee a little more than the business continuity guide, but it was nice to refamiliarize myself with business continuity management (BCM) again.

My Courses Are Now on Udemy

Thu, 11 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

I’ve moved my courses over to Udemy so if you’re here, it’s likely that you followed an old link. I apologize for the inconvenience but you can find my courses on Udemy here

“This will never work. Here’s Why CrisisDojo Will Fail”*

Thu, 04 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

*Is what people tell me, but here’s why they’re wrong

“This will never work.” “People won’t trust something so important to an automated process.” “You can’t develop high-quality, professional materials like this without extensive consultation.” “It can’t be done.”

These are the things you hear when you make something that’s only been available via expensive professional consultation into an on-demand service.

Except these comments aren’t just about CrisisDojo.

This is also what the founders of a small start-up heard back in 2001 when they launched their online legal services firm.

A Simple Crisis Management Plan Framework

Tue, 25 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000

I want to share a simple framework for crisis response.

But, if you’re a crisis management professional or corporate communicator, you need to take a deep breath before you read this.

You’ll want to tell me that you can’t simplify crisis response.
You’ll want to tell me, ‘It’s not exactly like the standard’.
You’ll want to tell me that this won’t work for your big clients.

I understand these concerns, so there’s no need to email me and tell me why I’m wrong.

SITREP for Friday, April 14, 2023

Fri, 14 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Welcome to the Friday, April 14, 2023

I’m on the road today, so it’s a Dragnet edition: just the key metrics today.

If this is your first time receiving this email, greetings! These SITREPS (situation reports) contain updates on critical events and essential metrics for you to use in your decision-making. There’s a guide here and a detailed white paper about the small data approach to risk assessment here.

On to the numbers.

How To Run a Great Crisis Exercise

Tue, 11 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000

A great exercise presents participants with a near-real environment that will apply stress to them, their plans, and their processes. Like a good gym session, they’ll finish tired, and a few things might be sore, but they’ll be better, stronger, and faster not long afterward.

However, it’s just as easy to put together a training session that leaves everyone hurt, confused, anxious, and feeling less prepared.

So how can we deliver a great exercise? One that will make a team much more crisis ready by the end?

SITREP for Friday, April 7, 2023

Fri, 07 Apr 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, April 7, 2023.

It’s Passover, Easter, and Ramadan this week so a good number of you will be celebrating this weekend. (And if none of those is your thing, today is also National Beer Day. )

Chag Pesach Sameach, Happy Easter, رمَضَان كريم , and cheers (delete as necessary)

But before you slack off for the weekend, let’s catch you up on some important goings on.

SITREP for March 31, 2023

Fri, 31 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Welcome to the SITREP for March 31, 2023

We’re on a mini-vacation in Europe this week, so it’s a Dragnet edition today: just the facts!

By the way, if you haven’t signed up for the CrisisDojo waitlist, you’re already missing out.

The waitlist folks already got a sneak peek at the crisis standard builder and got a chance to build a 20-page, formal crisis management standard, just by answering a few simple questions.

Planning a Great Crisis Exercise

Tue, 28 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Exercises are an essential part of skills development and, for things like emergencies and crises, the only way to build these skills outside of an actual event, events that are thankfully few and far between. But creating a successful exercise takes a lot of work and planning – you can’t just throw some problems at a group of people and hope they’ll learn from the experience.

So how do you plan a great crisis exercise?

SITREP for Friday, March 24, 2023

Fri, 24 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

There’s still only one big story right now: banks. And rather than being out of the woods, as many are hoping, I think we might have just gotten into the woods. Keep in mind that something the increased rates are designed to do is expose and break weaknesses in the financial system.

This is harsh medicine and not something anyone welcomes but, when there’s a build-up of toxicity, this kind of cleanse is necessary. The problem is that you need to see it through, not quit just as it starts to have an effect. My view is that this is why the Fed and others continued with rate increases this week not despite the failure of some banks, but because of the failure of some banks.

Four Take-Aways from Recent Banking Flame Outs

Wed, 22 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Image (C) Bloomberg

In the last few weeks, US banks Sivergate, Signature, and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, while First Republic Bank required a $30bn bailout from larger Wall Street Firms. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Swiss bank Credit Suisse has been bought by rival UBS.

Each of these banks was in a different position, and no single factor caused these banks to get into trouble. However, these recent events provide some essential takeaways for risk and communications managers. Here are four I think are worth thinking about.

SITREP for Friday March 17 2023

Fri, 17 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Daily SITREP for Friday, March 17, 2023

Read this on the Blog

Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, March 17, 2023.

Two very different banking crises played out this last week and, while both seem to be over, the panicky reactions in world markets indicates a lot of FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) has built up. This suggests that companies won’t get the benefit of the doubt if there’s a stumble or any sign of weakness.

How Often Should Your crisis Management Team Train?

Thu, 16 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Recently, there was a great discussion on the frequency of crisis management exercises in a forum I’m part of. What was most surprising to me was the degree of consensus on the ideal tempo.

The vast majority of folks recommended a quarterly & annual frequency.

– Quarterly low-intensity tabletops focused on skills development and team cohesion.

– Annual high-intensity simulations to reinforce learning and test teams and systems in a realistic environment.

Crisis management exercise generation using AI

Wed, 15 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

To be successful, the process would have to:

Be faster than if I did it ‘by hand’
Produce realistic inputs
Be easily repeatable
Allow for customization to meet client needs

The outputs had to include:

Ideas for scenarios
A short video news report
Social media clips
Text for a news story

This left me with five challenges to solve:

Get ChatGPT into my workspace.
Generate scenario ideas.
Generate supporting text material.
Generate a video news clip input.
Generate social media inputs.

Here’s how the AI Crisis Management Exercise Build Hackathon* went down. (*Attendee one)

20 Years in the Making

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

💕 Happy Valentine’s Day 💕

It’s a slightly different intro today because I’ve some exciting news to share.

I know, I know. Every email you get starts with someone saying how excited they are: excited that you signed up for free coupons, excited that you joined an exclusive group of only 3,289,000 other professions, excited that you chose their firm to clean your windows, etc., etc.

I get it.

A Bird Flu Reminder to Keep Contingency Plans up to Date

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

A recent outbreak of bird flu has been detected in mammals raising concerns that a variant of the H5N1 virus could eventually infect humans. The chances of this are slim but it’s a good reminder to review plans nevertheless. Meanwhile, the metrics are a mix of extremes: wheat and iron and steel are at some of their highest prices for the 90-day period, while shipping and the VIX are at their lowest. Oil is relatively low but has been fluctuating recently.

A Mid-January reality check and why you need to pay attention to sovereign debt

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

ding! You’ve got mail…. 📬

Welcome to the first Daily SITREP! No more anxiously waiting between updates: now you’ll be getting the metrics and critical events delivered to your inbox daily, Monday – Friday.

Please keep the feedback coming – that way, I can make this as useful as possible (and not waste valuable space in your inbox).

Yesterday was Blue Monday when the reality of the New Year sets in: whatever excitement there was around the holidays has faded, the decorations are back in the attic, and we’ve all gotten used to writing ‘2023’ on our checks. And there was a similar feeling with the key metrics: movements are relatively gentle and valuations seem to be stabilizing for the moment as things settle into the New year. Unfortunately, some of this stability comes from pretty grim contributing factors – there’s no let up in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, for example – and the results are no less pleasant as the cost of living bites and layoffs continue. Nevertheless, this is a moment of relative calm which should be appreciated. And a bit like your New Year’s resolutions, it’s worth reviewing any big plans you made for your organization in early January to see if those are still great ideas now the enthusiasm has ebbed a little.

A New Gas Deal in Libya, Egypt’s Looming Challenges, and Fiddly Fingers Caused the NYSE’s Wild Tuesday

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

ENI is about to sign a new gas deal with Libya which is good news but adds a fraction of what the EU needs. Fiddly fingers (that’s a technical term – look it up) caused Tuesday’s wild opening on the NYSE while it was Microsoft’s turn on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, several recent stories about Egypt bring the combined challenges of what prices, inflation and sovereign debt info focus. These same conditions exist in many countries so the stories are worth reading to get a sense of what’s going on in frontier markets.

America defaults (kind of), using these metrics, and the value of delaying your morning cup of Joe.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

America hit the debt limit yesterday: that means no more borrowing is possible until the debt ceiling is lifted. The government will keep running and paying the bills for a few months because funds have already been appropriated or because the extraordinary measures introduced by Treasury Secretary Yellen provide additional financial flexibility.

The political back and forth has begun: House Republicans are vowing to force the White House to make tough choices on spending cuts while the Biden administration has refused to negotiate, calling this “economic vandalism”.

Balloons, Taiwan and Made in ChiMexico: A Chinese Threefor

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

The extent of yesterday’s earthquake in Turkey and Syria is becoming clear and many difficult days of search, rescue and recovery lie ahead. Although tragic, something like this is outside the scope of this newsletter and I can’t do justice to such a fast-moving event so I won’t be continuing to cover the response unless there is a significant development. (As a reminder, there are many reputable organizations providing relief in the affected areas and they would appreciate your support if possible but do check the credentials of any organization before donating.)

Bumps Ahead as The Transition to Renewables Speeds Up

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

A few articles on the transition to renewable energy I found this week are worth a read.

The first explains why crossing 5% usage is the ‘tipping point’ for mass adoption and what the current uptake looks like in different countries, and for different technologies. Read ‘Clean Energy Has a Tipping Point, and 87 Countries Have Reached It’ from Bloomberg here.

The others concern the minerals we need to create the hardware and infrastructure needed to sustain this switch. This all comes down to mining enormous tracts of land to get at the minerals needed to make solar panels, EV engine components, and batteries. Congo and Indonesia are two places developing new mining projects at the moment, but China dominates the entire sector as either a source of rare earth minerals or as the backer of these enormous projects. As the US dominates the oil and gas sector, China now dominates the rare earth sector.

China’s population is shrinking and moving. Why ‘recyclable’ doesn’t mean what you think it means.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

The newly released 2021 Chinese census showed a surprising drop in population for the first time in 60 years which, while not unexpected, was earlier than many had expected. Meanwhile, millions in Asia are preparing to celebrate the Lunar New Year which for many in China, means it’s the first chance to see family in years now that COVID restrictions have lifted. Sadly, that may be a bittersweet reunion for some as elderly, rural relatives may be exposed to COVID for the first time. However, the end of the celebrations in February will be the start of the big economic reopening.

DCDR Research – Tuning Out The Noise

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

DCDR research is a succinct, useable data feed that cuts through the noise to give you the critical information you need to make data-driven decisions. The project is the outcome of over 15 years work in this area as both an analyst and decision-maker.

The intent: to give leaders a set of critical metrics in an easy-to-understand format to help speed up and simplify their decision-making.

The full white paper and methodology will be published in December 2022 and you can request early access to the reports here.

DCDR Research: User’s Guide DRAFT

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

We all want better information for our risk analysis (well, at least everything reading articles like this does) and DCDR Research is building a data feed to get you those metrics. But even when you’ve got that data, there’s often one other problem.

How to use it?

Not to worry. Here’s a guide on how to use these reports specifically and if you want some more general background on using metrics in your risk assessments, take a look at these blog posts.

Dragnet Edition: Just the Facts

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

I had to take a personal day on Tuesday, so it’s just Chad with the metrics today. Apologies, and I’ll be back with a proper SITREP tomorrow.

On to the numbers

(Still not sure of how to use these metrics in your risk analysis? There’s a cheat sheet at the bottom of the email but the user’s guide is here. Want to know more? Read the white paper.)

Relative Values (90-Days)

Turn your phone for a better view ⟳

ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad's on a Spa Day

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖[
ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖

ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖

Good morning.

There were a few interesting pieces of news on ESG compliance and regulations that are worth keeping an eye on. Many of these rules are yet to come into force, but companies should start thinking about how they will meet these requirements (and who will take the lead). Also, there’s some positive news on the ransomware front.

ESG Compliance, a Drop in Ransomware Attacks, and a Chad’s on a Spa Day 🤖

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Unfortunately, the metrics didn’t update properly today. I’ve sent Chad (the robot who manages the data) off for a spa day while I fix things, and I apologize that there aren’t any numbers today.

ESG is Under Attack: So What?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

GM and welcome to the ‘So What’ briefing: a shot of additional angst to go with your morning chai latte macchiato.

Let’s dive in

1,200 Words, reading time 5 mins 6 secs

Nutritional information

Today’s post contains hints of regulation

ESG under attack as ‘woke’ capital

In a lot of recent coverage, ESG (environmental, social & governance) is being termed ‘woke’ capitalism by both supporters and detractors of the investment class. This perception further strengthens the sense that, rather than measuring how well a firm or fund performs in some important non-operational ways, ESG is nothing more than a form of virtue signaling and/or a scam.

Famine, Oil Production Forecasts, and Custom Metrics

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Some quick updates today plus I’m sharing an example of the personalized SITREPS I announced yesterday.

Famine in the Horn of Africa and North Korea

Wheat and grain prices remain high making many food staples more expensive around the world but there are also many who are living in famine or near-famine conditions (Axios). The Horn of Africa is undergoing another period of drought following its fifth failed rainy season. This places millions in Somalia, Eastern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya in severe danger of acute malnutrition. (UNICEF)

For Economies “This Is Normal”, the WEF’s 2023 Risk Forecast, Holocaust Remembrance Day.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

There’s some macroeconomic analysis that’s worth your time today (or over the weekend), plus a belated recommendation to read the WEF’s Global Risk Report if you haven’t already. Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day.

And thanks to everyone who voted on the layout. The overwhelming response was that you prefer having the analysis first so we’ll stick with this format and starting next week, I’m going to trim the commentary around the metrics unless there’s a big event or change. That should streamline things even more

Hundreds Dead after Turkey and Syria Earthquake, plus Executive Liability in the US.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

A sad morning.

The death toll in Turkey and Syria following Monday’s terrible earthquake is rising and the latest death toll at the time of writing was over 1,000 but this number has been rising steadily all morning. The full toll will be many times higher while thousands more are injured or without shelter and power. The recovery and aid operations will be complex and likely hampered by political and security considerations.

Lunar New Year, Tanks to Ukraine (or not), and An Election Switcheroo in Turkey.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Welcome to the upside-down edition of the Daily SITREP

I like numbers. You like numbers. We all like numbers. (If you don’t…)

But the danger of writing a daily briefing that leads with the metrics is that it can feel like a market tracker (this isn’t) and you can get a little ‘number blind’. You also might get sidetracked on your way to the updates which are hopefully flagging what you really need to pay attention to (that would be bad).

Oil Cuts (Meh…), WhatsApp and UFOs

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Surprisingly, markets quickly shrugged off Moscow’s Friday announcement that Russia would cut oil production by half a million barrels per day (bpd), suggesting that Russia’s influence on oil markets is much diminished.

Meanwhile, two stories on regulation are good reminders that rules should be followed but also that the communication of these rules can be complicated and subtleties can be lost. Unfortunately, ‘we were confused by your messaging’ isn’t an excuse for non-compliance, so it falls to leaders to ensure that staff understand, and meet, obligations.

Positive Vibes from DC, Negative Vibes in Pristina and US Egg Smugglers.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

The readout after Wednesday’s meeting between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy was positive, giving some hope for smoother-than-anticipated negotiations around the debt ceiling. The Fed continued to raise rates but less quickly, which markets took as a sign that the worst was over. However, Mardi Gras is still three weeks away – and landing the US economy even farther off – so shouts of ‘laissez les bons temps rouler’ from Wall Street are premature. Finally, Kosovo is one of many seemingly small disputes that can cause oversized headaches and is therefore worth keeping an eye on.

Rapid-Fire Friday: Geopolitics Issue

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

🌐 A rapid-fire roundup of some of the big geopolitical issues today: Tunisia, the Turkey / Syria earthquake, Russian sanctions, the Nigerian Election, and Israel-Palestine.

The Cyprus election run-off is this weekend and America will be watching a football game while eating a record number of nachos and wings.

See you on Monday!

🇹🇳 Tunisia

There have been no steps to address the lack of a decisive outcome in the election runoff that took place two weeks ago despite protests and complaints that the government of President Saied is illegitimate. Instead, the President has sanctioned a crackdown on the opposition, increasing the number arrested or charged with frivolous offenses and is describing the opposition on the terms of a “cancer” on the country.

Shipping Containers Are Very Expensive: So What?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

GM and welcome to So What: a fresh perspective on an emerging risk that will add to your grey hairs.

Let’s dive in.

839 words – 3 mins, 31 seconds read time

TL;DR

Container prices remain at record highsThis affects global shipping of all goods with an impact on supply chains and pricesThis looks set to continue through 2022 and maybe into 2023 so companies should plan accordingly.This also reinforces the dangers of globalization and just-in-time inventory which need to be reduced.

Some news from Davos while the metrics remain relatively quiet. Plus giant space lasers.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

First, a clarification

**In yesterday’s piece on sovereign debt, I said that Secretary Janet Yellen had announced that the US would hit the debt ceiling in early June and she was implementing special measures to help manage that process.

In fact, Secretary Yellen said that the US will probably hit the ceiling around January 19 (A.K.A tomorrow!) but that the “extraordinary measures [will] prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations”. These measures can be sustained until early June, after which it is unclear exactly when the US will run out of cash, although many economists believe that this will happen by August.

Tanks to Ukraine, a Mini-Flash Crash (maybe), and New ECB Climate Metrics. Plus, treehouses=terrorism?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

It’s a bite-sized issue as there’s a lot to share today. Tanks are heading to Ukraine, the ECB has issued new climate metrics and the NYSE had some wild swings on Tuesday. (Oh, and Chad’s fully refreshed after his spa day so the metrics are back. )

Feedback so far is that quite a few folks seem to prefer having the commentary first but please use the poll to let me know what you think.

The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Just Came Into Effect: So what?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

GM and welcome to So What: your daily snippet of risky goodness that adds one extra headache to your to-do list. (But you’ll read it right away tomorrow anyway.)

Let’s dive in.

1685 words – 6 mins, 30 seconds read time

TL;DR

The UFLPA addresses US concerns about the use of the Uyghur as forced labor in China.Similar EU legislation is likely in the near future.UFLPA places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.Both importers and those who have Chinese goods in their supply chains should audit their supply chains and prepare for and adapt to any disruption.Over the mid-to-long term, companies should reduce their dependence upon goods and materials of Chinese origin and look for other parts of their supply chain that may be linked to forced labor.It places a high burden on firms importing goods and materials from China to prove that the imports have not originated from facilities or regions using forced labor.The Act will impact firms importing goods and materials from China into the US and manufacturers who reply upon these items.

Ukraine and Russia Produce Over 1/3 of the World's Grains. So what?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Decis SITREPS[

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Ukraine and Russia Produce Over 1/3 of the World’s Grains. So what?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

GM and welcome to So What: your snippet of risky goodness that (in this case) will bum you out before breakfast (you are reading this before breakfast, right?)

Let’s dive in.

1,200 words, 4:48 reading time

1/5 of the world’s grains originate from Ukraine and Russia, meaning the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing a significant interruption to global food supplies. In addition to the detrimental effects on food security, this may also cause instability in some countries. Here’s why.

Ukraine Anniversary Offensive, Nigerian Elections, plus custom reports.

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Two quick updates today plus the customized risk / opportunity ratings.

Click here to try out customized reports.

Russia on the Offense Prior to February 24

Russia appears to be building up for a concentrated offensive in Ukraine to coincide with next week’s one-year anniversary of its invasion. Additional missile strikes took place on Thursday morning and Russian forces appear to be making progress in taking the city of Bakhmut which would put them within striking distance of other major cities in the northwest Donetsk region. See Reuters for more.

Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China's COVID wave coming to an end

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’[
Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’

Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’

Good morning.

Tunisia’s second-round voting had a similarly low turnout as the first round making it unclear what will happen next. Recent attacks in Israel, Palestine, and Iran signal a period of heightened tension that feels poised to boil over.

Uncertainty in Tunisia, Czechs reject eastward turn, Middle East Attacks and China’s COVID wave ‘coming to an end’

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Meanwhile, Czech voters clearly returned formed NATO General Pavel with 58% of the vote, signaling their preference to remain aligned with the West. On a (hopefully) positive note, China’s CDC declared that the current wave of COVID infections was coming to an end.

US Debt Fight Round 1, Unease in Pakistan, and How Reliable is Carbon Offset Reporting?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

The real work to avoid a US deficit starts today and will give us a sense of how the stage of the drama will unfold. A terrible attack in Pakistan left 100 dead and ratches up tension.

Meanwhile, reports of inaccuracies in one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas crediting programs are a good reminder to take care and conduct your due diligence. Otherwise, you might find you’re making misleading statements to regulators and shareholders which (checks notes) is bad.

US Deficit Timeline Update, More Arrests in Tunisia and a New Prime Minister in Moldova

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Monday is President’s Day so there’s no SITREP and then you’ll see a difference in the content and frequency of the free emails as the PRO plans kick in. So, starting Tuesday:

PRO subscribers get the daily updates and customized risk metrics.General subscribers get the Friday round up only.

You can try the PRO plan for free here. (And if you have any questions on what you get in the PRO plan, and how the customization works, please just hit reply and I’ll send you more information.)

We Have Too Much Stuff

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

I got sucked into a supply chain vortex on Bloomberg this morning and did some digging around so you don’t have to.

It turns out the world over-ordered during COVID and now, some supply chains are full of surplus goods and materials. This could be a great opportunity for some but signals big problems for others.

However, it’s also a good reminder of why you need to take a historic view in your planning, something that toilet paper manufacturers understood, but Peleton didn’t.

SITREP for Friday, March 10, 2023

Fri, 10 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Nigerians Vote and a South Pacific Remake

Thu, 23 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

🇳🇬 Nigerians Vote

Nigerians will elect their new president and parliament this weekend with third-party candidate Peter Obi leading recent polls (ANAP Foundation). Obi has a strong following amongst younger Nigerians and a win would signal a break from some of the traditional political power structures in the country. However, there is still a significant margin for error in the polls and all three leading candidates have strong bases of support so a close election and run-off are still a significant possibility.

Some AI Safeguards

Fri, 27 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Note that things are moving very quickly with AI and OpenAI. CatGTP in particular so some of the issues below may have been fixed by the time you read this. (Sadly, not the bits that involve humans.)

Some things to think about before you dive into GTP3

Like most of us, I love new toys. And like many others, I’ve been playing with OpenAIs tools since access opened up last year. With GTP4 scheduled for release soon and rumors that Google and Facebook both have pending AI releases, a lot will happen with AI in the near future.

A Small Data Approach to Risk Metrics: Risk Metrics White Paper

Wed, 14 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

(Read more about the origins of the risk metrics project here and here)

The Risk Metrics White Paper

The risk metrics project has come into sharper focus over the last couple of weeks and I’m now comfortable with the foundation of the system and how to manage the data. I’m still a little unsure as to which metrics will be most useful but I have an initial set of 12 to start with and user feedback will be the best judge of what’s relevant.

Chatting with an AI about Risk Management

Tue, 13 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

I chatted with OpenAI’s Chatbot the other day and asked it some questions about risk management. The answers were clear, nuanced and thoughtful, supporting all the hype surrounding the tool.

It’s a text compiler so therefore not an analytical machine for the purposes of risk analysis – other tools of that kind will come on the scene eventually but I’m writing a paper as to why that’s a little ways off yet – but there are some uses I can see in the risk management space.

Why (and How) You Should Conduct an End of Year Risk Management Review

Fri, 02 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

For most people, this will be a busy time of the year: end-of-year performance reviews, last-minute budget planning, holiday parties, or a final push to achieve their annual goals. All of this adds up to a very busy time when all you want to do is take a break.

However, there’s one other thing I’m going to suggest you squeeze in before you start next year’s ERM program.

An end-of-year review

This review will neatly tie up everything you did over the past year and get you ready for the next. And best of all, it’s something you can do in an afternoon.

Risk Management Isn’t Just About Compliance

Mon, 28 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000

It’s no secret that I love standards (I even confessed to this in a previous blog post).

However, there’s a problem: as soon as you introduce a standard, you’re in danger of turning things into a compliance exercise. Initially, that might not sound so terrible. If you’re compliant with a risk management standard, you’ll be managing your risks properly, right?

Unfortunately not.

Because compliance, or anything else that can be reduced to a ‘check the box exercise,’ very quickly moves the focus from outputs to inputs. So, as long as you have written the procedure, conducted the assessment, and established a governance board, you’ve complied with the requirement set out in the standard. But that doesn’t mean that the procedure is fit for purpose, that the assessment effectively evaluated the risks, or that there’s effective governance in place. It just means you’ve checked off these requirements in the standard.

The Signal and The Noise – Book Review

Mon, 21 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000

*The Signal and The Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t by Nate Silver *is the 2012 best-seller from the then New York Times columnist who now runs the FiveThirtyEight election analysis and prediction site in the US.

TL;DR – This is a great read that explains why and how you need to mix statistics and experience in your predictions and decision-making. It can feel a little technical and heavy on the math at first glance, but Silver explains everything clearly, making it an easy read, given the subject matter.

The Question You Can’t be Afraid to Ask

Mon, 14 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Something that’s very hard to do as a consultant is to say,* ‘I don’t know,’ *or confess that you don’t understand something. But you’ve got to overcome any discomfort and learn how to do this because it’s critical that you’re honest about your knowledge gaps if you genuinely want to understand an organization or situation.

But the problem is that this is hard to do when you’ve positioned yourself as an expert, and someone’s brought you in as a problem solver. So you’ll feel self-conscious if one of the first things the client hears you say is, ‘I don’t understand that. Please explain’.

Risk Metrics Project Update – November 2022

Tue, 08 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This post is an update on the risk metrics project I described a few weeks ago. You can read about the origin of the project and the intent here.

If you recall, the underlying metrics for the project had to meet the following criteria:

Broad, not narrow (meaning the metric has widespread effects)
Publicly available
Easily understandable
Updated frequently
Commonly used

Unfortunately, for a lot of the data I looked at, I could get four out of five criteria but often one remained out of reach. Usually, this was frequency as some macro-indicators are published in annual reports, not weekly or monthly. However, for a macro trend such as literacy rates, a year-on-year measurement is sufficient, which means that the final criteria could read regular or frequent.

How vs. What: Don’t stop your planning too early

Tue, 01 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000

A problem I’ve observed is that we often need to differentiate more clearly between what we need to do and how we will do it. This confusion makes us think that a problem’s been solved when, in fact, all we’ve done is identify the effect we want to achieve, not how we’re going to get there.

The roadmap for how to make that happen is missing.

Imagine a business that’s trying to cut its costs because its cash flow is out of balance. Discussions might end with decisions to trim expenses or reduce headcount, which are reasonable ways to cut costs significantly. Everyone leaves the meeting thinking the problem’s been solved. However, they still need to determine what costs can be cut without compromising operations. How to manage layoffs and the effect these will have on the business? They will have identified the ‘what’, but not the ‘how’.

Flirting with Disaster – a Book Review

Mon, 24 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

My risk management master’s course had a heavy reading list as you’d expect but a lot of these set texts – and the course material itself – was pretty thick and not much fun. However, I found a few books that I used alongside the course work which helped summarize a lot of the technical, academic stuff and, frankly, made it less dull. I wanted to share a few of these with you beginning with a book about when and how things go wrong.

A Data-Driven Approach to Risk Management – The Risk Metrics Project Background & Overview

Tue, 11 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Full disclosure: this is me working through an idea in public but, if you’ve been reading my stuff for a while, you’ll know that the blog and email are often me thinking out loud, trying out ideas to see what sticks.

In this case, it’s not a new idea but, instead, a rather old one. A 20-year-old one…

Data-Driven Risk Management

How this came about isn’t important, but since my first risk assessment, I’ve felt that there’s a need for some kind of simple math to underpin things and help with consistency. Eventually, that became the kind of thing you’ll have seen in the metrics and gradings work here.

Who’s Your Organization’s Barbara?

Tue, 11 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This recent tweet made me chuckle as I thought, ‘Yup, sounds just like a Barbara.’

Ed Burmilia on Twitter

Like this author’s fictitious Peggy, ‘Barbara’ is my shorthand for the person who’s essential to an organization. But, unlike Peggy, Barbara’s real.

What’s a Barbara?

Barbara was the founder’s EA at a firm where I worked and, having been there since the very beginning, knew everything there was to know about the business.

ESG is Under Attack: So What?

Mon, 03 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000

ESG under attack as ‘woke’ capital

This post originally appeared in the ‘So What’ newsletter on July 1, 2022

A Quick Way to Establish Context and Develop Understanding

Thu, 15 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Data or information by itself is meaningless.

For it to be useful, we need to add context. This is the difference between information and intelligence: once we’ve analyzed the information and put it into context, the resultant intelligence gives us an understanding of a situation.

Another way to write this is understanding = knowledge + context

But that’s sometimes easier said than done. What do we mean by context, and how does this help you understand a situation better?

A Prayer for Risk and Crisis Managers

Thu, 08 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000

There’s a saying that there are no atheists in a foxhole, and it’s the same for a boardroom in crisis. Facing the worst day of their life, even the most bitter executives who don’t even know where the nearest church, mosque, or temple is will be trying to remember the prayers they learned as a child. They won’t add God to their stakeholder matrix, but they still hope He’s on their side.

Reflections after five years of KISS risk management

Tue, 15 Feb 2022 00:00:00 +0000

I started the KISS risk management project five years ago with the idea that risk management was being made too complicated and there were too many gatekeepers in the way. That makes it hard to get started in the profession, which robs businesses of a broad range of perspectives and viewpoints (a risk in itself). But this lack of general risk intelligence also makes us all worse off: we need people to make risk-based decisions in all kinds of situations.

10 Considerations for New Risk Managers

Fri, 19 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

*I received an email a few years ago from someone just getting started in risk management asking if I had any thoughts or advice on the risk management skills they needed. The response quickly became several pages long and I thought it was worth turning it into a blog piece that others might benefit from. So here are 10 considerations for new risk managers (although this could also be titled ‘Letter to a 30-year old me’ or a 40-year old me.) *

Becoming a risk manager

Sun, 07 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Becoming a risk manager can seem to be more art than science. There’s not a clear pathway from degree to junior risk manager to senior risk manager to CRO (Chief Risk Officer) in the same way that you can chart the progress from freshly minted CPA (Certified Public Accountant) to head of Ernst & Young. (Financial risk management is the exception here as there is usually a clear path there.)

What is a risk manager?

Sun, 28 Feb 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Googling ‘what is a risk manager?’ will get you variations on ‘it’s the person who manages that organization’s risks,’ which is a pretty weak answer. It’s certainly not enough to help anyone who’s just starting in the role to understand what they’re supposed to do. Similarly, if someone’s thinking about this as a career, we need a bit more.

🎧 Listen to a recording of this post 🎧

So here’s a more detailed answer.

Using blockchain to validate records in DCDR

Wed, 24 Feb 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Security is a guiding principle for DCDR, and protecting user data has been baked in from the start. However, there’s more to data security than restricting access and managing user permissions. I’ve used the INFOSEC abbreviation CIA – confidentiality, integrity, and availability – as a guide to help determine the steps required to protect your data while also ensuring that the system does what it’s supposed to. Overall, the intent is to ensure:

Custom categories in DCDR

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Big news! (And it’s not just that I have new glasses!)

DCDR.io now allows you to have custom categories for risks and incidents. Switching your existing risk management system to DCDR is now easier than ever with:

Custom logo ✅ Custom categories ✅ Custom dashboards 🔜

Email me if you want to learn more chat@dcdr.io

(But yes, I also have new glasses….)

Risk reports in 30 seconds?

Tue, 19 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000

It’s as easy as 1, 2, 3 with DCDR

80 / 20 your risk management

Mon, 11 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000

This is a very short post which should work because it’s a very simple idea. Obviously, I’m a fan of simple (this is KISS risk management after all) but, as with lots of simple ideas, the trick is sticking to the idea and seeing it through without getting distracted.

🎧 Listen to a recording of this post 🎧

The idea is that you use the Pareto principle, or 80 / 20 rule, when you’re thinking about your risk management system. In short, the principle or rule is:

Lets’s wait and see…

Mon, 04 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Happy New Year. Sorry this is a grim (stern?) start to the year but this idea bears repeating

“Let’s wait and see…”

..actually, let’s not.

Let’s do something about [fill in the risk here] right now.

The sooner we start to act, the earlier we’ll understand the situation, the faster we’ll be able to mobilize resources, and we’ll start limiting the damage that will only worsen with time.

This speed is essential when there’s a lagging indicator. By the time the metrics show things are getting worse, it’s already bad.

Happy New Year! Here’s to a great 2022!

Mon, 28 Dec 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Don’t worry, that’s not a typo.

Nor does it mean that you’ve missed a whole year (although we probably all feel like we could have done with a little less 2020).

But I want you to imagine for a second that it’s almost January 2022.

Why?

Well, although we’re all going to probably feel a lot better psychologically in a few weeks time, the fact is that the situation on January 1 2021 will look a lot like the situation in late December, 2020.

Get your risk governance system running like clockwork

Wed, 16 Dec 2020 00:00:00 +0000

There’s a lot in risk management where success is achieved by breaking something very large and complex (say, a risk assessment of a whole organization) into bite-sized pieces and risk governance is no different. I’ve written about risk governance in more detail here but I’m aware that the schedule of activities can become a bit overwhelming.

So I spent a bit of time in my calendar and Asana, a project management app, the other day, looking at how to set this up once and then let automation do its thing. I estimate this will take about 30 minutes to get things set up. Then all you need to do is follow the schedule, saving you lots of time scheduling individual meetings and, best of all, avoid things getting out of sequence and gumming up your risk governance structure.

Sweat the small stuff this week

Thu, 10 Dec 2020 00:00:00 +0000

We’re getting towards the end of the year and, after a year like this, it’s understandable that we’re trying to wind down.

Unfortunately, risk management doesn’t work like that so your risk register is sitting there, waiting for some TLC. Those big, scary reds are still there and you know that there’s still a lot to do. There are also a few ambers that you’re concerned about but haven’t quite got around to yet.

Risk appetite and risk tolerance

Fri, 04 Dec 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Defining an organization’s risk appetite and risk tolerance is one of the most significant challenges a risk manager faces.

I’ll explain why in a moment but it’s important to understand these parameters as this helps managers at all levels understand where they are operating in relation to the organization’s risk /comfort level.

Understanding these limits guides them when they are deciding which initiatives to pursue or kill. Or how much mitigation a risk requires. Maybe it’s what helps them decide it’s time to start pulling out of a market or country.

Getting ready for 2021

Fri, 27 Nov 2020 00:00:00 +0000

I think it’s safe to say that we’re all ready for 2020 to be over.

The arrival of January 1st won’t miraculously solve all of our issues but we will be moving into a year where a lot of the unknowns of 2020 are now knowns. That’s a huge relief for risk manager who probably feel like they’ve been playing on heroic mode all year.

2020 wasn’t a game of Halo, but it felt like it at times

Get your contingency plan checklist

Tue, 10 Nov 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Make sure your contingency plan isn’t based on flawed assumptions. Use this quick checklist to run a health check on your contingency plans.

Boiling the kettle: when risks become events

Tue, 03 Nov 2020 00:00:00 +0000

*How can you spot the point where risks become events? How do you know you’ve moved from something that might occur to something that is actually occurring? *

I’d argue that you don’t need to identify the specific point of change, and you’ll waste valuable time trying to spot the exact moment of transition. Most importantly, if you wait to see the transition point, your response will be on the back-foot from the get-go.

November is risk management training month

Sun, 25 Oct 2020 00:00:00 +0000

DCDR V2.0 tour video

Wed, 21 Oct 2020 00:00:00 +0000

DCDR V2.0 is live. Here’s a quick 90-second tour.

Seven takeaways from reviewing my degree notes

Mon, 12 Oct 2020 00:00:00 +0000

I looked back at some of my degree notes the other day and came across something I’ve been meaning to work on for a long time. (By long time, I mean about 10 years*.)

It’s based on two concepts. First, the work that Brian Toft, Simon Reynolds and Barry Turner did with respect to how disasters evolve and how we can learn from the. The second concerned how to differentiate between emergencies and crises. Bringing these concepts together gives us a model or framework for how risks become events and how these events can become disasters.

Rehabilitating the deficit model for risk communications (or why having a better conversation starts with not calling the other person an idiot)

Wed, 07 Oct 2020 00:00:00 +0000

We seem to be pretty bad at talking to one another right now.

Subjects where you might expect some general agreement with maybe a slight difference on the edges become die-in-the-ditch arguments. Arguments that rapidly spiral into unrelated areas of increasing vitriol.

If you’re talking about sports, then that’s fine: we don’t expect Yankees or Red Sox fans to agree.

However, we need a way to have a measured debate when talking about public safety, national security, or healthcare issues. I believe that we can achieve that by improving the deficit model for risk communications. (There’s a primer on risk perception and communications here if you’re not familiar with the topic.)

What is risk management?

Thu, 10 Sep 2020 00:00:00 +0000

*Asking ‘what is risk management?’ often gets you the trite answer ‘it’s the management of risk’ or we get a list of activities associated with risk management. Neither result is satisfying and we need a better definition that explains the intent of risk management along with some clarification of what this is and is not. Here, I’ve presented some initial ideas on a definition along with four components that should give us a more thorough definition. *

The Buck Stops Here

Wed, 05 Aug 2020 00:00:00 +0000

As risk managers, we spend a lot of time working out how to get things done.

After all, the risk assessment is just the start of the process. Once you’ve identified your risks and worked out how to address them, you need to get down to work: then the actual management part begins.

Determining ownership for many risks will be relatively straightforward and departments will often fight very hard to maintain ownership of risks that fall within their remit.

Simple doesn’t mean easy

Sun, 19 Jul 2020 00:00:00 +0000

I realized a while back that it can be too easy to mistake ‘simple’ with ‘easy’ and I’ve been concerned that promoting a simple approach to risk management might lead people to think that this makes everything easy. Unfortunately, even though a KISS approach makes risk management easier, it doesn’t do away with the need for hard work altogether. Worst of all, it can be easy to mistake shortcuts for simplification.

Dealing with uncertainty in your risk assessment

Sun, 12 Jul 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Most of the risk assessment models I’ve discussed before use a basic formula to calculate a value for risk. By adding or multiplying values for the individual factors, you’ll get a numeric value for the risk itself. That’s going to allow you to put things into order, apply a color-code or description. That gives you enough differentiation to start a risk-based discussion or determine where you need to focus your attention and resources.

Organizational smoke alarms: how to become more proactive

Sat, 27 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Many people have a few smoke alarms dotted around their house and, to me, these are some of the most straightforward set-it-and-forget-it risk management tools you can get. You set these up and then…nothing. You can forget about them until that annoying ‘chirp’ sound wakes you up one night, telling you to change the battery.

And most people will never hear their smoke alarm go off except for those times that their cooking gets a little out of hand.

What’s a Black Swan & why you need contingency plans

Sun, 14 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000

I’m sure you’ve heard people referring to COVID-19 as a ‘Black Swan’ – something that no-one could have seen coming – but is that actually the case?

Terrible though it is, I don’t think it’s accurate to describe the current situation as a Black Swan because we’ve had to deal with highly contagious, deadly diseases before.

Calling this a ‘Black Swan’ is, therefore, a way to excuse a confused response: ‘how could we have prepared for something that no-one could see coming?’

Practicing what I preach

Sun, 07 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000

A while back, I wrote something on the need to speak up, even when it’s hard. That’s something we face as risk managers, but it’s also a necessity in other parts of our lives.

I’ve also written about how there are risks that are so big and uncomfortable that they’re left in the corner: we pretend not to see them.

I even wrote a whole piece on Jim Barksdales’ rule about snakes: “The first rule of snakes is, if you see a snake…Just take care of it”. Basically, if you see a problem, don’t stand around staring, debating whether it’s real or not, just deal with it.

Just in Time Planning is a Myth

Thu, 21 May 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Just-in-time inventory is the idea that the materials you need arrive just as you need them. This approach cuts down on the cost of storage space and reduces the amount of inventory sitting around doing nothing. A just-in-time approach is very efficient but very fragile.

If the supply chain hiccups and inventory gets delayed, the knock-on effects shudder through the whole supply chain.

Just in time inventory works, until it doesn’t

Toyota discovered this in 1997 when a supplier’s factory burned down. Aisin Seiki was the sole-supplier of a critical part Toyota used in the majority of their vehicles, and the fire left them with just two-three days of inventory because of their just-in-time inventory system. Toyota’s recovery, which amounted to an almost national-mobilization of Japan’s industrial base, was incredible and taught manufactures the world over many valuable lessons.

Trusting your Gut: Informed Intuition and Risk-Based Decision-Making

Sat, 16 May 2020 00:00:00 +0000

I was thinking a while back about the idea of informed intuition: cases when you seem to be trusting your intuition but, in fact, you’re recalling deeper experiences and patterns that help with your risk-based decision-making. As I was building upon this idea, it became clear that I wasn’t onto any thing new but, instead, this has been explained in the work of, among others, Gary Klein and the RPD model.

This is the balance we’re trying to strike

Tue, 05 May 2020 00:00:00 +0000

In Amman, we’re in our 7th week of curfews, homeschooling, and weekend lockdowns, and things are starting to ease up so you can drive, the bigger stores are opening again, and in some people’s eyes, we can get back to normal.

Unfortunately, as I’ve said previously, I don’t think we’re going back to how things were (‘normal’), and our ‘new normal’ requires some adjustments. Sadly, in some places, we’re treating the lifting of restrictions as an ‘all-clear’ which is only going to make things much worse.

The difficulty of proving a negative

Sun, 12 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000

I meant to write this piece a few months back, focusing on the first part. However, with the developments around COVID-19, I thought the second point was also relevant and timely. Plus, I thought it might do some good, but I’d love to know what you think. Please send me an email with your thoughts.

Risk and security managers are often faced with the difficult task of defending the success of a risk management program with little or no supporting evidence. Ironically, the more successful a risk management program is, the less evidence there can be to demonstrate its effectiveness. So this success actually increases the perception that the program is unnecessary: after all, why have an expensive security program when you have few, if any, significant incidents?

Getting in the Fight: Transitioning to Crisis

Sun, 22 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Change is hard, and the transition from ‘peacetime’ to crisis is one of the hardest. Facing the spread of COVID-19, that’s where many of us find ourselves today: struggling to adjust to the reality of what we are facing. That might be personally, within your family, or at an organizational level. However, I can’t think of anywhere that’s going to escape this contagion so, no matter the level, we all have to transition and the faster, the better.

A time for overwhelming action

Sat, 14 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

By now, you will probably have picked up that I enjoy a good old risk assessment. However, there are times when you don’t need a risk assessment to figure out what to prioritize. When something’s staring you in the face, it’s time to take action.

So when a real crisis hits, the time for the risk assessment is over.

So is the time to ‘wait and see.’

So is the time for asking, ‘why me?’

Speaking up is hard (but necessary)

Mon, 09 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

In David McKee’s book for children ‘Not Now Bernard’, a young boy tries to warn his parents about a monster in the yard, but they’re too busy to pay attention. All they say is ‘not now Bernard’ and ignore him. In the end, the monster eats Bernard and moves into the house, but his parents are still too busy to notice.

Look Out, Bernard! Illustration by David McKee

I don’t think the author meant this to be a homily about risk management, but this will be a familiar refrain if you’re a risk manager. The slot for the update on the risk register gets pushed to one side. Or your data is dismissed out of hand because someone doesn’t like what they’re hearing. Or you simply get shouted down.

Why your contingency plans will fail

Wed, 29 Jan 2020 00:00:00 +0000

You need to fix a fatal assumption

Most organizations and groups have contingency plans in place for when things go wrong. So do many families and individuals. They’ve spent the time thinking about what to do if someone gets sick, a product launch fails, a vehicle crashes, or there’s a fire.

The problem is that most of these plans will fail because they’re based on a completely false and unrealistic assumption.

Short on resources? Here’s where to apply your focus

Sun, 24 Nov 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Effective execution is a matter of dealing with scarcity: a scarcity of time, a scarcity of resources, and scarcity of information (although too much information can also cause problems). Tools like a risk assessment help manage this scarcity by prioritizing things to allow you to better allocate resources on what’s most important.

But there’s a hidden flaw in this process which often means that resources are misallocated, and the most important things are overlooked.

How less data can give you better results

Sun, 17 Nov 2019 00:00:00 +0000

“Hi, I’m Andrew, and I have a weakness for data.”

There, I said it.

I love spreadsheets. I love national statistics. I love primary sources.

I could probably have completed my Master’s dissertation without an extension if I had just accepted that cited quotes were valid instead of looking for all the original sources*. And I don’t need to read the last three years of a company’s annual reports before I have a 20-minute call with them.

It’s the destination, not the journey

Sun, 10 Nov 2019 00:00:00 +0000

A while back, I felt that pretty much everything was out of sync and I was highly disorganized. There was a growing list of undone things whether that was around the house, at work, with my family, or at the places where I volunteer.

It was definitely time for a reorganization.

A few weeks later, things were back in order (I even had time to write again), and a big part of my reorganization was refocussing on the systems I use for productivity.

Get SMART about your risk mitigation

Sat, 21 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Often, the end of the risk assessment feels like the end of the process and things start to ease off. Unfortunately, this is when the real work begins because, now that you have identified and prioritized your risks, you need to do something about them.

There are several options when it comes to dealing with a risk but it’s risk treatments I want to focus on here. These often go askew when mitigation measures aren’t designed carefully. This wastes resources and the risks aren’t reduced.

Repair the roof while the sun is shining

Mon, 05 Aug 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Back in his 1962 State Of The Union Address, JFK noted that “the best time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.” He was making the point that the US needed to make harder economic decisions while the economy was strong rather than trying to implement cuts and structural changes during a downturn.

However, this idea extends well beyond economics and is something we should apply whenever there is a difficult decision to make. There will be times where something truly unexpected crops up and we don’t have much chance to plan beforehand but, in most situations, we can plan ahead. The critical thing is that hard decisions are much easier to tackle when you aren’t already in the middle of a stressful situation.

Decision Points: Prepare for Life’s Big Decisions

Mon, 08 Jul 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Right or left? The red pill or the blue pill? Speak up or stay quiet? Should I stay or should I go?

A decision point is a moment when a significant choice presents itself and the decision made will result in a significant change of course that cannot be undone easily. Moreover, that same choice or option is unlikely to reemerge in the future. The essential elements are that the decision is significant, non-repeatable, and non-reversible.

They Might Not Want a Hammer: How to Understand an Organization

Tue, 28 May 2019 00:00:00 +0000

One of the things I’ve enjoyed most as a consultant is having the opportunity to learn about organizations from a wide variety of sectors. These have ranged from schools, NGOs and the private offices of high net-worth individuals to Fortune Five oil and gas companies and governments. On the one hand, I’ve discovered that there are considerable similarities in all organizations, no matter their sector or size. However, I’ve also become acutely aware that the things that make the most significant difference – good or bad – are often very subtle.

Assessments without metrics

Mon, 20 May 2019 00:00:00 +0000

“Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.”

[W. Edwards Deming](http:// https://deming.org/deming/deming-the-man), US academic and father of the continuous quality improvement movement in the US.*

A big part of the risk assessment process is the risk assessment, and a large part of that is usually the risk analysis. The problems is that this involves metrics and math which people often find challenging for two reasons.

Firstly, the math can be fuzzy and complicated to follow.

Get ready for a punch

Thu, 16 May 2019 00:00:00 +0000

There are two times you get punched: when you’re expecting it and when you aren’t. Sometimes you know what’s coming, but there might also be times where you get punched, seemingly out of nowhere.

Spoiler for those that haven’t tried this: getting punched hurts, no matter what.

The question is, what can you do to make it hurt less?

In some ways, knowing you’re going to get punched is worse because you know what’s coming. I’ve only boxed a couple of times, but it turns out that the ring is really (really, really!) small. Half the people in there want to hurt you, and the other half isn’t going to stop them. You also realize that three minutes getting hit by someone feels a lot longer than three minutes of Game of Thrones.

How to think about time to make real progress

Thu, 09 May 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Gary Vaynerchuk uses the term micro speed: macro patience to describe his approach to business. This goes a long way to explain the seeming contradiction between his 100-miles-an-hour life and his Zen-like view of when things will come good.

Looking back on the last two and a half years working mostly for myself, this is a useful mindset for anyone who’s starting out on their own, part of a startup or busy small business.

Structure, Silence and Lots and Lots of Notes: How to Conduct an Effective Interview

Mon, 29 Apr 2019 00:00:00 +0000

“Well, there was the kidnapping. Is that something you’re interested in?”

It was our last day of a week-long site security survey. We were meeting with the site manager to wrap up our visit but this was the first time we had heard anything about something as serious as this.

So yes, a kidnapping was something we were very, very interested in learning about….

I have no idea why it hadn’t come up before: we had conducted dozens of other interviews that week and had dozens of pages of notes. However, it almost didn’t come up at all: at this late stage, we were going to skip the interview and go straight into a review of our findings.

How to Plan a Risk Assessment

Mon, 22 Apr 2019 00:00:00 +0000

I’ve written before about how you need to have a clear idea of what you’re trying to achieve with your risk assessment and to get everyone onto the same page. Without this kind of understanding, it’s very unlikely that you will complete the assessment in the time available. Even if you do, you might not have answered the original question.

So you need to plan your assessment properly but what does that look like? Here’s a short five-step process to make sure that you are well-prepared for your assessment before you ask the first question or open up a spreadsheet.

Stop thinking about risk in two-dimensions

Mon, 15 Apr 2019 00:00:00 +0000

There are lots of different methodologies for assessing or breaking down a risk. The most common is a two-factor approach where the likelihood and potential impact of an event combine to create a risk.

Likelihood (of the thing) + Impact (how the thing affects you) = risk

This is what’s used for The World’s Simplest Risk Model.

However, this two-dimensional approach leaves out one thing. Sometimes there are barriers between the event or threat and you. So in addition to the event and its potential impact, there’s the concept of vulnerability or exposure: factors that make you more or less susceptible to the event. These can be passive factors – e.g. physical distance – or active measures you’ve taken to reduce your vulnerability to an event.

Now you understand your risk – what’s next?

Mon, 08 Apr 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Naturally, a lot of time and effort in risk management goes into understanding the risks that you face. After all, if you don’t understand what you’re up against, there’s not a lot of risk management to be done. However, even when you complete a comprehensive risk assessment, this is just the beginning of the process. Now the real work starts and you have to answer the big question.

What do we do next?

This is your brain on risk

Mon, 01 Apr 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Original image – Partnership for a Drug-Free America

There are lots of things that are hard about risk and risk management: you are often dealing with abstracts and potential events; showing success can be challenging when your job sometimes means nothing happens; you might not be seen as adding value.

But the biggest challenges always seem to concern discussions about risk. These discussions are hard, even when we have set out clear definitions for what we mean by risk and have everyone on the same page theory-wise.

Getting threat categorization right

Mon, 25 Mar 2019 00:00:00 +0000

*Photo by Ula Kuźma on *Unsplash

To manage your risk management system, you need to have a way to categorize your threats. This is a key part of being able to structure your risk assessments and you need to identify a set of imaginary buckets or folders into which you can group similar threats.

But this also helps with information gathering as data on a specific threat category might be grouped together. It also assists when it’s time to address the risks as one action could help mitigate a whole category of threats. Finally, these categories will also help you identify trends and patterns and start to develop an overall picture of your risk environment.

The World’s Simplest Risk Model

Mon, 18 Mar 2019 00:00:00 +0000

In addition to the many different definitions for risk, there are lots of different ways to calculate risk. Having a way to assess a risk and ascribe a value is the core of any risk assessment: this valuation allows us to prioritize our risks and differentiate between those of low priority vs the higher, more urgent issues we need to deal with.

So we need a way to do these kinds of calculation but if we aren’t careful, we can end up with a model that’s too complicated for most people’s needs.

Your risk assessment’s a thermometer, not a crystal ball

Mon, 11 Mar 2019 00:00:00 +0000

If you’re cooking, you need a way to tell how hot the oven is. You won’t be able to tell the difference between 275oF and 325oF just by sticking your hand inside – both are going to feel hot to you – but this is the difference between a perfect, crunchy yet chewy meringue and something that’s dry and explodes into a pile of dust. So we use a thermometer to give us the information we need.

Linking risk assessments to decision-making

Mon, 04 Mar 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The point of risk management is to understand and react to the threats and opportunities that might affect your business. The problem is that risk management can often become dislocated from the mainstream business processes. Instead of being integrated into the organization, risk management takes place in a parallel but separate workstream: one that decision-makers dip into occasionally but generally look at as a specialized, technical process.

I’ve seen a similar thing happens with cybersecurity. Despite the fact that almost every business is now wholly dependent on a robust, secure and effective IT infrastructure, cyber security is still often seen as a ‘thing that IT does’. Even though cyber security is effectively supply chain security (plus a lot more), it isn’t thought of that way.

What’s your risk assessment for?

Tue, 26 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Up front, this seems like an easy question to answer.

‘It’s to help us understand our risks.’

That’s true but then, what? What comes next?

If we start a risk assessment with no clear idea of what it’s to be used for, we will end up with something that’s unfocussed and doesn’t provide the insight we need. Or we might end up losing our way as we get spread too thin trying to assess everything.

The minimum viable assessment

Mon, 18 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000

If you’ve ever read anything about software start-ups, you will have heard the term MVP (minimum viable product). The idea is that you create something that does the bare minimum necessary to allow you to test your idea.

This lean, minimalist approach lets you produce something quickly, test your assumptions and then use this feedback to go on to develop something more detailed or comprehensive. This is in contrast to building a fully functioning piece of software up front which might mean that you invest a significant amount of time and effort only to find out that you’ve missed the mark.

What’s risk?

Mon, 11 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000

‘risk – the effect of uncertainty on objectives’ ISO 73, Risk Management Definitions

A risk is something that will have an effect on your objectives, good or bad.

So you might have something that threatens your success (a downside risk) or an opportunity that could help you on your way (an upside risk).

There are lots of ways to break a risk into components but most include a combination of a thing that can happen (a threat or opportunity), how likely that thing is (the likelihood) and what its effect might be (the impact).

KISS – easy to say, harder to achieve

Mon, 04 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000

“That’s been one of my mantras – focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.” Steve Jobs

This quote sums up the paradox of simplicity – simple is hard.

Working out what the essentials are and how to do things efficiently isn’t just hard, it can seem like more work than just sticking with the complicated path in the first place.

The first thing you need to do in any risk conversation

Mon, 28 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000

You say either and I say either You say neither and I say neither Either, either, neither, neither Let’s call the whole thing off “Let’s call the whole thing off” George and Ira Gershwin

It’s good to have an idea of what you are going to be talking about before you start any discussion, but this is vitally important when you are talking about risk. The word is used conversationally and technically in lots of different ways so we need to be clear that we are all speaking the same language to avoid confusion later on.

Risk mitigation is out of beta

Thu, 24 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000

After the core elements of the risk and incident modules themselves, adding risk mitigation this was the most requested feature people asked for.

We rolled this out as a beta feature in December and I’m pleased to say that testing, tweaking and tinkering is over so this feature is ready to go for all TEAM and PRO users.

You can now add mitigation for individual risks, allocate an owner and add a due date, all within the app. Any active ‘to-dos’ you have will show up in the ‘My Open Actions’ panel in your dashboard.

Address your LOI before your ROI

Mon, 21 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000

As a risk manager, you will often be asked to explain the RoI (return on investment) of you, your team, even the whole risk management program.

Effective risk management can help an organization grasp an opportunity and realizing an upside risk should generate a positive RoI.

However, when you are focussed on shoring up a weak system, plugging gaps and minimizing risks, showing an RoI can be hard. Even so, an inability to show a positive RoI in a cost-conscious environment can threaten investment in your team. It can even make people question the value of the program as a whole.

Stay lean

Tue, 15 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000

‘Lean’ is a buzzword in software development describing an approach where you conduct lots of short, fast experiments and iterate depending on the outcome.

‘Lean’ also conjure up images of a racehorse or athlete. Fit, powerful and ready for peak performance.

‘Lean’ can also means stripped of anything superfluous and free of frills.

Your risk assessment process needs to include elements of all of these.

Your need a lean risk assessment process.

Concierge onboarding

Mon, 14 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000

There are lots of reasons you might be looking for risk management software but there’s one thing that everyone wants.

More time.

DCDR doesn’t have a time-travel module but the app does help you get back time. A lot of time, in fact. Time that you’d otherwise spend entering data, formatting reports and creating graphs and charts.

**However, we also noticed that people often don’t even have the time to get set up on the system in the first place. **

Your biggest risks are in the corners

Tue, 08 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Your biggest risks aren’t usually the ones staring you in the face

The big ticket items – the ones that are at the top of everyone’s list, the first thing the CEO wants to talk about – aren’t usually the biggest risk you’re facing.

These might be the biggest threats.

These might reflect everyone’s biggest fear.

But because these are so well known. Because these get so much attention, you’re probably spending a lot of time and effort on these risks. The result is thatthese are closely monitored, well mitigated and heavily managed so the resultant risk is relatively benign.

And theme for 2019 is…

Mon, 31 Dec 2018 00:00:00 +0000

It was the highpoint of a recent meeting with a large firm’s corporate security team. While we were showing them around DCDR, the CSO leaned over to a colleague and said

“I love the simplicity“.

Cue smiles from our side….

Our intent was always to make the best piece of risk management software possible and a key part of that was to keep things simple. However, as time goes on, it’s easy to lose sight of the original concept, to add ‘just one more feature’ and eventually end up with a Frankenstein’s monster which looks nothing like your original idea (and that everybody hates).

Stack the Odds in your Favor (I): How to Understand your Startup Risks

Sun, 02 Dec 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Failure is not Definitely an Option

People agree that starting a business is risky and although the failure rates might not be as dire as people like to say, 20% fail in their first year and only 50% make it to five years. A decade in, only 30% are still around (Stats courtesy of Fundera.).

A tech startup takes that to a whole new level because of the additional layers of uncertainty that technology imposes. Startup’s risks are significant.

Five Risk Assessment Problems that Threaten your Next Assessment

Thu, 01 Nov 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Conducting a risk assessment is a big project and, like any big project, there are a lot of things between you and success. However, there are five common risk assessment problems that crop up time and time again. These make the difference between success and failure no matter what else you do. Keep these five problems in mind and plan accordingly to maximize the chances of success with your next risk assessment.

10 Risk Management Skills to Master ASAP

Mon, 15 Oct 2018 00:00:00 +0000

I received an email a while back from someone just making their start in risk management asking if I had any thoughts or advice on the risk management skills they needed. The response quickly became several pages long and I thought it was worth turning it into a blog piece that others might benefit from. This could also be titled ‘Letter to a 30-year old me’ or a 40-year old me..

What is the difference between subjective and objective risk?

Thu, 11 Oct 2018 00:00:00 +0000

In some ways, all risks can be considered subjective for two reasons.

Firstly, how we perceive risks is a very personal matter based on in-built biases, the experiences we have had and our current situation.

An example from a well-known risk textbook is an icy sidewalk. A child might see that as a fun thing to slide on so their perception is that there is no risk. A retiree will perceive this as a high risk as their chance of falling and becoming injured is higher and more debilitating. If a kid falls, they usually just get up and carry on with what they are doing.

This time it isn’t different

Mon, 17 Sep 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Two major events are going to happen in US within the five years. One is a replay of the US subprime mortgage collapse which spawned the 2008 financial crisis. The other will occur when the bubble of college debt bursts. Both events – one of which may well trigger the other – will cause massive strain on US banks with potential global repercussions.

This isn’t a bold claim. There are lots of people, all of whom much more familiar with this kind of risk than I am, sounding similar alarm bells. For example, the day after I started writing this, the Financial Times’ editorial was on a similar topic. And there may be other significant events that occur in addition to these but making forecasts about what’s going to happen isn’t the point of this article.

Get Things Done this Month

Thu, 30 Aug 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Happy September!

I’m a big fan of September for several reasons: the weather is cooling down, vacation-time is over, fall race season is starting (well, it is normally) and there’s a lot of pie-ready fruit available (I love pie).

However, one reason I really like this month is that September is a great month for getting things done.

And if you have any plans to build or update your enterprise risk management system by the end of the year, this might be your last chance to get started.** **

The devil is the detail

Sun, 19 Aug 2018 00:00:00 +0000

We often say ‘the devil is in the detail’ meaning that it is the small things that will catch us out. But sometimes the problem begins by looking at the details in the first place.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of details. I believe the more planning and specificity you can put into something, the better. The problem occurs when we jump into the details too quickly. Instead of starting with a strategic perspective, we dive right into the weeds.

If it looks like a duck (or a snake)….

Sun, 29 Jul 2018 00:00:00 +0000

“The first rule of snakes [problems] is, if you see a snake, you kill it….Just take care of it” Jim Barksdale, former CEO Netscape

It’s rare for an event to be truly unexpected.

We know that our personal habits affect our health. We know that incorrect use of tools and machinery can cause injury. We know that small-scale corner-cutting leads to more serious infringements. We know that running complex systems – like drilling rigs or nuclear power stations – beyond established safe parameters can be catastrophic.

What is a risk mitigation plan?

Fri, 13 Jul 2018 00:00:00 +0000

This post originally appeared on Quora in response to the question ‘What is a risk mitigation plan?’ Link

What is a risk mitigation plan

The risk mitigation plan is a series of specific actions or steps you will take in response to a risk once you have completed your risk assessment. However, before you start to develop the mitigation plan in detail, you need to determine a general course of action based on one of five main options: avoid, tolerate, treat, transfer and terminate (A4T). Which of these is most applicable will depend on your risk tolerance (short term), risk appetite (longer term) and what you can reasonably achieve with the resources available (ALARP).

Convincing people to take risks

Fri, 06 Jul 2018 00:00:00 +0000

This post first appeared on Quora in response to the question ‘How do you convince people to take a risk in a company?’ Link.

How do you convince people to take a risk in a company?

Firstly, I don’t think we should ever push people to take risks that 1) they are uncomfortable with and 2) that don’t serve the company’s objectives.

However, I also know that sometimes people might overestimate and subsequently avoid a risk that might actually benefit them and the company. That is something we can help with.

Risk management and the security manager – a quick note

Sat, 30 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0000

This post originally appeared on Quora in answer to the question “How does risk management fit in security risk management profession?” Link

How does risk management fit in security risk management profession?

Ideally, a security manager will use a risk management foundation for their security management system. This will help integrate security risks into the organization’s understanding of its overall risk environment. This focus also ensures that the security program is focussed on protecting the organization’s objectives which aligns with the ISO definition of risk:

Summer shorts

Fri, 29 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Summer’s here* which means it’s time for a change of pace and a chance to try something different for a couple of months. So instead of the normal longer-form pieces or interviews, I am going to stick to nice, short pieces for the next month or two. Perfect, bite-sized risk nibbles to keep your risk synapses firing during these long, hot days.

To start with, these will be re-posts of answers to questions posed on Quora which I have been trying to do more regularly. I’m really enjoying Quora for two reasons. Firstly, I don’t need to think about a subject (which I often find is the hardest part of writing). It’s right there, waiting for me. Secondly, it’s great practice in condensing and summarizing something that might otherwise become a 1,500-2,000 word essay.

DCDR is live

Wed, 20 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0000

(This post was updated on Nov 7, 2018 to reflect the discontinuation of the free SOLO plan.)

Launch day!

For about 15 months now, I have been working on a project to build a better piece of risk management software. This is something I have been thinking about since 2002 and I think now, more than ever, we need – and deserve – a better piece of software for risk management. Why?

Risk Management Maturity Tool Update

Mon, 11 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0000

OK, I confess that this took me a little longer than I had hoped but I finally updated the risk management maturity tool to reflect the 2018 ISO 31000 risk management standard.

The new tool is available here and you can read my review of the standard here.

So if you were wondering how mature your risk management system was, wonder no longer!

The assessment only takes a few minutes and you get a nifty report like this emailed to you right away.

ISO 31000 – a review of the 2018 standard

Tue, 05 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Yawn!

Aside from GDPR-inspired emails with news of updated terms and conditions , this will be the most boring thing you will read all week….

*However, it might be one of the more important if you are a risk manager because one of the core risk management references has just been updated and there are a few changes to be aware of. *

I had to review these documents to ensure that my material was up to date so I thought I should keep some notes as I want to save you from having to go through the same ‘compare and contrast’ exercise. Plus, I love standards. : )

Meet the expert – a conversation with Nick Smart

Thu, 24 May 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Risks don’t just arise from operational incidents. Often the conduct of the organization and its senior leaders result in a type of risk that is very different but just as threatening as a large, physical event.

In this conversation with Nick Smart we explore the intersection of risk, ethics and governance. Nick is an independent strategic risk advisor and was the chief ethics and compliance officer (CECO) for a global energy services company, before which he designed and built the security risk management function for the same company in his capacity as chief security officer (CSO).

10 Tips For Crisis Management

Thu, 17 May 2018 00:00:00 +0000

I have been thinking about effective crisis management a lot recently and am working on a more in-depth piece on managing a crisis which I hope to publish soon. However, crises don’t wait until we are properly prepared before they strike so I put together this quick set of suggestions as a stop-gap.

Normally, I wouldn’t make a top-10 list but sometimes it’s the easiest way to share ideas. So here goes and I hope you find these suggestions useful.

Exhibit #A19670174000 – A Reminder to KISS

Thu, 10 May 2018 00:00:00 +0000

KISS – keep it simple stupid – was drilled into us in the military and it’s hard to unlearn some things. I still make my bed each morning – even in hotels – and always tuck in my shirt. However, KISS is more than a tired old army saying. The more I look around and think about it, the more keeping things simple seems to be the key to success. Importantly, the more complex and consequential something is, the more important it is to keep things simple.

How to Build a Crisis Management Plan

Thu, 12 Apr 2018 00:00:00 +0000

The WDYMB…Crisis? article explained what a crisis is and how these can arise. One of the most important points stressed is that crises are often avoidable and in many cases, survivable. Ultimately, this might come down to good luck and obviously the skills and abilities of the team responding play a big part. However, the chances of surviving a major event are significantly increased if the organization has prepared in advance. As far as a crisis is concerned, one of the key elements of this preparation is a crisis management plan (CMP). This article will explain what a CMP is, what it should contain and how you can develop one for your organization.

Meet the expert – A conversation with Andy Cuerel

Thu, 29 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0000

I have known Andy Cuerelfor a number of years and have always appreciated his in-depth yet practical approach to business continuity management. So when it was time to have someone provide a high-level overview of BCM for Riskademy, Andy was an obvious choice.

I hope our conversation helps clarify the relationship, and differences, between crisis management and business continuity management and gives you a good overview of BCM. (If you missed the last few posts, you can read more about crisis management here.)

Incident Response vs. Crisis vs. BCM – video

Thu, 22 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0000

The WDYMB…Crisis? articleprompted a few questions concerning the interactions and relationship between crisis management, business continuity management and general response. These relationships are complicated both in how these are managed and also because different disciples will view the relationships differently. Below, there is a quick video I made to help explain the relationships as I described these in the article.

Spoiler – the graphic is a little busy so it is worth pausing the video to take a look at this before you listen to the whole thing.

DCDR is live in beta

Wed, 14 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0000

After 15 years, it feels very good to finally be able to write that.

Take a look. The video might be scrappy but the app isn’t.

[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/zX4Nf4zz?hd=0&autoPlay=0&permalink=1&loop=0&preloadContent=metadata&muted=0&playsinline=0&controls=1&cover=1]

DCDR is live AND it has users. It’s been a busy week.

Schedule your demo

WDYMB…Crisis?

Thu, 01 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0000

When things go wrong

Despite the best efforts of the risk manager and senior leadership, it’s still possible that things can go wrong for your organization. Processes aren’t followed or are applied incorrectly, mitigation measures turn out to be inadequate, something unforeseen happens or, as is so often the case, someone does something they shouldn’t. At one end of the spectrum are relatively common slips, trips or falls, minor fires, or the accidental deletion of data. More significant are the payment of bribes, cutting corners on regulations or a crass, offensive comment from an executive. At the extreme end of the spectrum are crisis events, situations that can strike a fatal blow to the organization: a chemical spill causing mass casualties, widespread fraud or a toxic culture of racism, sexism or other discrimination.

DCDR App demo – Feb 2018

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 00:00:00 +0000

I’ve just uploaded a short video showing one of the functional assessment apps in use. Although the methodology is different from the full DCDR tool, the approach and functionality is very similar:

Fast? Check!

Simple? Check!

Easy to use? Check!

So here’s a taster of what the DCDR app is going to look like. Enjoy!

[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/xThbiOro?hd=0&autoPlay=0&permalink=1&loop=0&preloadContent=auto&muted=0&playsinline=0&controls=1&cover=1]

DCDR Update – mid-February 2018

Mon, 19 Feb 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Opportunity overload continues to be the biggest threat to DCDR right now: I keep finding myself being seduced by thoughts of what the app could do, rather than what the core feature set should be. Luckily, I am getting good advice from Matt and from the several thousands of hours of podcasts and interviews I have consumed. As usual, the problem isn’t getting the right advice. Following the advice, however, is always more difficult. I am finding Paul Graham’s advice particularly useful and his ‘Startups in 13 Sentences‘ essay has become my roadmap.

I Love (and Hate) Standards – You Should Too

Mon, 15 Jan 2018 00:00:00 +0000

I confess to having a love / hate relationship with standards. On the plus side, having an agreed way of doing things is incredibly attractive. There is no need to spend long periods trying to design a system; shared terms, concepts and processes; easy collaboration between different groups. So when they work well, standards are great and definitely have a lot going for them. Yay!

However, there are also drawbacks.

Get your ERM System Ready for Next Year in just One Afternoon

Wed, 20 Dec 2017 00:00:00 +0000

For most people, this will be a busy time of the year: end of year performance reviews, last-minute budget planning, holiday parties or a final push to achieve their annual goals. All of this adds up to a very busy time when all you want to do it take a break. However, there’s one other thing I’m going to suggest you squeeze in before you start next year’s ERM program.

Meet the expert – Crisis Communications with Price Floyd

Thu, 19 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Meet the expert – Crisis Communications with Price Floyd

We are kicking off our ‘meet the expert’ series with an interview with Price Floyd, the founder of the Engaging America Projectand an expert in risk and crisis communications. Price has over 25 years of experience in government and the private sector and here he shares over a dozen key lessons he has learned including:

The difference between communications in government and the private sector
How digital media has improved crisis communications
Why it’s too late to call the communications team when things start going wrong
The number one skill for communicators
Why it’s important to tend the garden (and what this means)

Watch the video to hear these and many more key lessons that you can put into action today.

10 quick thoughts on risk

Sun, 01 Oct 2017 00:00:00 +0000

I’m trying to improve my videos so apologize for the quality but here’s a quick video with 10 quick thoughts on risk management.

[Video: https://video.wordpress.com/embed/zX8wUAWO?hd=0&autoPlay=0&permalink=1&loop=0&preloadContent=metadata&muted=0&playsinline=0&controls=1&cover=1]

Let me know what you think!

A KISS Approach to Enterprise Security Risk Management

Tue, 12 Sep 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Enterprise security risk management (ESRM) has been a topic of increasing interest for security managers over the past few years. ASIS International has identified it as a strategic focus. However, after a review of the literature, beginning with the 2010 CSO roundtable paper on ESRM, two issues are raised that could make ESRM implementation difficult.

The initial papers on ESRM appeared to encourage security to fill the gap left by traditional enterprise risk management (ERM) systems, which often focused on financial and market risk exclusively. Although an effective ERM system should incorporate all risks, having security fill these gaps via the ESRM system would quickly overwhelm the chief security officer (CSO).

Risk Governance

Wed, 23 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Completion of the assessment and development of risk mitigation strategies help the organization understand their risks and what it can do to bring these risks within the levels of its risk tolerance and appetite. The elements that ensure that these risks stay within the permissible levels are risk governance and system controls.

*Controls are what help keep the system in equilibrium or prompt a reaction where things begin to deviate from ‘normal’. Governance provides oversight to ensure that the risk management system is operating properly and that risks are being identified, elevated and managed at the appropriate levels. *

A Framework for a Risk Management System

Thu, 17 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Effective risk management requires a series of behaviors and attitudes to exist within an organization that make risk considerations prominent in day-to-day operations. This mindset alone will go a long way to making an organization more risk-led but a functioning risk management system is also required to develop, support and guide that mindset.

The specific system adopted by an organization will be influenced by a number of factors: the industry may have a series of regulatory requirements; the country in which it is headquartered will have applicable laws to follow; there will be cultural aspects which will differ from organization to organization; and individual sectors and industries have preferred approaches to risk management. That makes it difficult to prescribe what a risk management system will look like and even a review of the existing standards and common references can still leave the reader without a clear template to follow.

Integrating a Risk Management System into Your Organization

Wed, 16 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +0000

*Integrating a risk management system into your department or organization will be a major endeavor and while there are significant benefits to making this change, the degree of effort required should not be underestimated. Moreover, the overall workload of the organization and other major initiatives that might also be underway are major considerations when planning ERM implementation. This article will refer to ERM systems but the same principles will apply if the implementation is for a less expansive risk management system. Importantly, as a supporting function and not an operational activity, risk management must be shaped to fit the organization. It should not try to shape the organization to fit it. Implementing a risk management system requires thorough planning, a careful combination of change and project management and a high degree of cultural sensitivity. *

WDYMB…Address Risks?

Fri, 28 Apr 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Once an organization’s risks are understood, it is important that appropriate action is taken to address these risks to ensure that the organization’s objectives are protected or enhanced. Some risks are severe enough to require immediate action. Others can be dealt with in the short term whereas some risks require longer-term attention over months or even years. This essay explores the key ideas and terms associated with addressing risks and outlines the steps to take to ensure that the appropriate action is taken once a risk is identified concentrating on five main options: avoid, tolerate, treat, transfer and terminate.

WDYMB…Risk Perception and Risk Communication?

Mon, 03 Apr 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Complicated, subtle factors affect how we perceive risk and these can be exacerbated by the way we receive risk information. We refer to the ways we think about and react to risks as risk perception, and the processes for discussing risk as risk communication. Even when people are in the same or very similar situations, they may perceive the risks very differently. Similarly, different people listening to the same risk information will react to it differently depending on several factors that affect their perspective. The overall result of this is “the general frustration experienced by both risk managers and affected parties in conveying and understanding risk information”.[i]

Risk Assessments Grading and Metrics

Fri, 24 Mar 2017 00:00:00 +0000

When we are conducting a risk assessment, we need a way to assess, grade and order risks to allow us to use this information for decision-making and to prioritize our actions. This article outlines some basic techniques that can be used for risk assessment grading and matrics. These basic examples lay the foundation for more complex sets of metrics that can be adapted for your organization and the specifics of the assessment. An example of the metrics used in the r = tvi construct and the risk calculation tool are included along with links to online tools that you can copy and use in your own assessments.

How to Conduct a Risk Assessment

Sat, 18 Mar 2017 00:00:00 +0000

*The risk assessment lies at the core of risk management. Without a clear understanding of the risks faced, none of the other risk management activities can be undertaken. This means that the organization will remain reactive instead of being able to take proactive steps informed by risk-based decision making. However, risk assessments have the potential to become hugely complex, sometimes becoming the only risk management activity that is undertaken, as organizations become exhausted by the assessment process and don’t conduct any of the follow-up activities. Detailed here is a four-phase risk assessment process that can be used for most non-technical assessments. *

A Foundation for Risk Management

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 00:00:00 +0000

In the simplest of terms, risk management helps you function in the real world. Organizations are under constant assault from both anticipated and unanticipated events which threaten to derail their plans. Risk management is what helps them understand, prepare for and react to these events. The largest firms will spend thousands of hours and billions of dollars on risk and compliance annually and there are dozens of different standards or methodologies to help guide the risk manager. But what do you do if you are a small organization and there is no money for training or consulting? Or if risk management is the second or third responsibility on your job description – the one you never quite get around to?

WDYMB…Understanding?

Fri, 03 Mar 2017 00:00:00 +0000

*Understanding is not the same as having information – it is the process of putting that information into context to work out what it means in a particular situation. We conduct a similar process on a larger scale during the ‘understand’ stage of the risk management process. During this time, we build on our knowledge of an organization to understand the risks it faces. *

The term ‘understand’ is both an activity and a stage in our risk management process. As an activity, understanding means relating that information to a situation. Chess is often used as an illustration because I may know the names of the pieces on a chess board and what they can do, but I could still not understand chess. How the pieces interact, the set moves, strategies and how to apply these are all necessary to understand the game. Understanding can be achieved by asking the questions ‘why?’ or ‘so what?’ until you run out of questions.

What is Risk?

Fri, 24 Feb 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Risk and risk discussions are often hampered by inconsistent terminology and a high degree of subjectivity. To overcome this, we need to understand what we mean when we ask ‘what is risk?’. This article lays out a concept for risk using the ISO definition – the effect of uncertainty on objectives. It breaks individual risks into their three main components: threat, vulnerability and impact for downside risks or opportunity, and exposure and impact for upside risks. These concepts form the basis for all subsequent risk discussions and lay the groundwork for a risk assessment methodology.