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Decis Research Report Good morning and Happy Sunday, The long-term effects of President Trump’s tariffs won’t be known for a long time: remaking America’s industrial base is a generational task. It will even be months before the final tariff rates are agreed so a great deal of uncertainty remains. However, what is certain is that supply chains are being disrupted now but this is being overshadowed by the political noise and market watching. ...

⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely and Imminent, Turkish Protest Arrests Andrew Sheves Good morning. ⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely, Imminent Warnings are circulating that India plans to attack Pakistan in response to last week’s attack on primarily Indian tourists in Kashmir. The attack by The Resistance Front (TRF), militants believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, left 26 dead [Al Jazeera Report here] India has a wide range of options from surgical strikes to more conventional shows of force and attacks, but there is no indication of where, when, and how they will respond. ...

US-Ukraine Minerals Deal, China’s Domestic Economic Pressures. Plus we’re relaunching deep dives (with an upgrade) Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦** US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Signed** Ukraine and the US signed an agreement to establish the “United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund” for joint investment in Ukraine’s natural resources, marking a diplomatic victory for Kyiv which rewrote the deal after initially refusing to sign. The revised agreement removes language requiring Ukraine to reimburse Washington for past military aid and includes provisions protecting Ukraine from violating EU laws, though Trump’s frustration grows over the three-week delay in signing. The largely symbolic deal offers no concrete security guarantees but signals “long-term strategic alignment” between the countries. More - Washington Post ...

Carney, Liberals Win in Canada, Gaza Fighting Grinds On Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇨🇦** Carney, Liberals Win in Canada** Carney’s Liberals won a projected 169 seats, short of the 172 needed for a majority, requiring cooperation with other parties as he navigates US trade tariffs and domestic issues. Meanwhile, the previous favorite, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, lost his Commons seat. Tension with the US remains as the White House controversially commented that the election “does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state,” a scenario Carney told the BBC would “never, ever happen.” More - BBC ...

Spain, Portugal Blackout, Ceasefire in the DRC Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇪🇸** 🇵🇹 Blackout Hits Spain and Portugal** A massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal on Monday, reaching the 12-hour mark with only 50% of supply restored and no clear cause identified despite losing 15 gigawatts in just five seconds. Spanish PM Sanchez warned of a “long night ahead” while declaring a state of emergency in eight regions, as the unprecedented blackout stranded 35,000 train passengers and raised questions about grid stability amid Europe’s renewable energy transition. Portugal’s PM Montenegro expected full restoration within hours. More - Bloomberg ...

Deadly Attack in Canada on Election Eve, China Seizes Disputed Atoll, Iran Port Blast and Israeli Strikes in Beirut Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. 🇨🇦** Deadly Attack in Canada Upsets Final Day of Campaigning** Canada’s federal election campaign took a somber turn as party leaders responded to a deadly incident where an SUV rammed into a Filipino festival in Vancouver, killing 11 people. Prime Minister Carney cancelled major rallies while continuing smaller events, Conservative Leader Poilievre held a moment of silence before resuming campaign activities, and NDP Leader Singh—who had left the festival minutes before the attack—cancelled multiple events to attend a Filipino mass. More - CBC ...

Canada Election Summary and the Downside of Trump’s Tariff Vacillations Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇨🇦 Canadians vote on Monday (although a record number have already voted early) and the BBC has a neat summary of how the two parties compare on key issues. Unsurprisingly, both reject President Trump’s idea that Canada become America’s 51st state. 🤷 Bloomberg notes that the significant impact of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff vacillations is global uncertainty for both governments and businesses. [More - Bloomberg] ...

China Returns Boeing Jets, Turkish Earthquake Andrew Sheves Good morning. / 🛫** China Returns Boeing Jets** China has returned Boeing aircraft and halted delivery of 50 more planes in retaliation for Trump’s 145% tariffs. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed two jets have already been sent back with more to follow, forcing the company to seek alternative buyers. Despite the escalation, Trump expressed optimism that tariff levels would “come down substantially.” More - BBC ...

Why we’re participating in the Metaculus Forecasting Tournament The Decis Intelligence agents weren’t designed to be forecasting tools. (In fact, I have a draft article explaining why we aren’t in the prediction business.) However, as I was building out the scenario planning tools, it was obvious that if these were to be useful, I needed a way to determine how effective, realistic, and accurate the scenario likelihood estimates were. But, as Andrew Ng wrote recently, evals and benchmarking are hard and expensive to set up. And in this case, how do you even evaluate the effectiveness of a forward-looking forecast? ...

Tourist Attack in Kashmir, Trump Softens Tariff Stance on China and Ukraine Peace Talks Setbacks. Plus, how we’re putting the bots to the test. Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇳** 26 Tourists Killed in Kashmir Attack** Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir in the deadliest attack in 25 years. The Resistance Front who claimed the attack are believed to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. The attack, targeting mostly Indian civilians at the “valley of shepherds” tourist destination, threatens to escalate India-Pakistan tensions, with some experts describing it as “an act of war.” More - Al Jazeera ...