Posts

Algeria Mali Tensions, US Iran Talks (Maybe) Andrew Sheves Good morning 🇩🇿** / 🇲🇱 Algeria-Mali Tensions** Algeria has closed its airspace to all flights from Mali after shooting down a Malian drone near their shared border, escalating diplomatic tensions between the neighbors. Mali accused Algeria of being a “sponsor and exporter of terrorism” and described the drone incident as a “hostile premeditated action,” while Algeria dismissed these allegations as “lacking in seriousness” that “warrant no attention or response.” The dispute has deepened regional instability as Mali fights Tuareg separatists along the northern border, with Mali withdrawing from a regional security grouping and recalling its ambassador from Algeria following the incident. More - BBC ...

Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. ⤵️ Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns Global markets tumbled Monday as the Trump administration doubled down on its tariff strategy despite the $5.4 trillion selloff last week. Asian shares fell as much as 7.9%, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunging over 10% and Taiwan’s index suffering its worst drop on record. President Trump remained defiant, saying “sometimes you have to take medicine” while Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed recession fears and claimed “the market consistently underestimates Donald Trump.” Trump’s economic team insisted the tariffs will make America “wealthy like never before” despite warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Powell about higher inflation and economists predicting a recession. Even Trump supporter Bill Ackman criticized the policy, warning “the president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe.” More - Bloomberg ...

US Tariffs Cause Market Drops and Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend. 🔻** Liberation Day Causes Markets to Plunge** US stocks suffered their worst plunge since the pandemic, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% and erasing $2.5 trillion in value as Trump’s new tariffs sparked recession fears. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, with tech giants like Apple (-9%), Tesla, and Nvidia taking heavy hits, while retail and manufacturing stocks plummeted—Nike tumbled 14% and luxury furnishing company RH crashed 40%. Bond traders boosted bets on Fed rate cuts as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%, with analysts warning tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 2 percentage points while pushing inflation to 5%. More - Bloomberg ...

‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Annoiuncement: Shock and Ongoing Uncertainty Andrew Sheves Good morning. (C) Bill Waterson Comment - Today’s news will be full of coverage of the immediate effect of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, but three big elements stood out while listening to the ceremony: 1 - The basis for the individual charges was unclear based on the President’s remarks, which included a range of reasons. (Note - The actual calculation released by the USTR is a completely different rationale than the one the President cited and has done little to assuage economists.) ...

China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan, Liberation Day Arrives but Details Still Shrouded in Secrecy, Chinese FM Visits Moscow Andrew Sheves Good morning. We had a great response to yesterday’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. Thanks for all the kind notes. (In case you missed it, the full announcement is here) Three headlines to start your day. 🇹🇼 China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan ...

Decis + HumanRisks We’re excited to announce our new partnership with HumanRisks (humanrisks.com). We’re integrating the Decis Country Intelligence feed directly into their comprehensive security risk management platform as a fully embedded data feed. This integration will provide security managers and asset owners with immediate access to Decis country risk ratings, directional assessments, and key news summaries—essential contextual information for making informed security decisions. The integration goes live on April 1st and will be available to both existing and new HumanRisks users on a trial basis. ...

Le Pen Barred from Politics, Uncertainty over Liberation Day Tariffs and Haggis Hunt Disruption. Andrew Sheves Good morning and happy April Fool’s Day. I’m glad to say the big announcement below is 100% real…. But first, some headlines to get you started. 🇫🇷 Le Pen Barred From Public Office Marine Le Pen has been barred from holding public office for five years after being found guilty of embezzling EU funds, likely eliminating her from the 2027 French presidential race. While she plans to appeal, this verdict throws her National Rally party into disarray, with 29-year-old Jordan Bardella potentially becoming the alternative candidate. The ruling could initially boost support among her base who view it as systemic persecution but may weaken the party’s long-term prospects. More - BBC ...

Eid Attacks in Gaza, Over 1,700 Feared Dead in Myanmar Leading to Calls for Ceasefire Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. Sadly, some grim headlines to start the week. 🇵🇸** Gaza Eid Attacks** Israeli airstrikes killed at least 35 Palestinians during Eid al-Fitr celebrations in Rafah and Khan Younis as Netanyahu maintained demands for Hamas to disarm and leave Gaza. The Palestine Red Crescent recovered 15 medical workers’ bodies following an Israeli attack, while humanitarian conditions deteriorate with aid deliveries halted since early March and ceasefire prospects appearing remote. More - Al Jazeera ...

Myanmar Earthquake. New Details on Ukrainian Minerals Deal, Arctic Cooperation Offer and N Korea’s S Andrew Sheves Good morning. Breaking - Massive Earthquake Hits Myanmar A powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar earlier today, causing widespread damage. Strong tremors were felt in neighboring Vietnam and Thailand, and at least one building collapsed in Bangkok. Myanmar is closed to foreign press making reporting difficult but the BBC has a Live Feed here ...

Bolsonaro to Stand Trial and Trump Slaps 25% Tariff on Car Imports Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two stories to set you up for the day. 🇧🇷** Brazil Court to Try Bolsonaro** Brazil’s Supreme Court unanimously ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to stand trial on charges of attempting a coup d’état after his 2022 election loss. Bolsonaro faces five criminal charges including allegedly attempting to violently abolish democratic rule of law, with Justice Alexandre de Moraes citing the former president’s “systematic effort to cast doubt on electronic voting machines.” If convicted in proceedings expected later this year, Bolsonaro could receive a lengthy prison sentence, further complicating his declared intention to run for president again despite being barred from public office until 2030. ...