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Duterte Arrested, Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume Amidst Moscow Drone Blitz, and US Markets Plunge Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇭 Breaking* Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manilla in response to an ICC warrant alleging human rights abuses during his time as President. [More - BBC]* Two headlines to kick off your Tuesday 🇺🇦 Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume in Saudi U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed optimism about Ukraine’s partial ceasefire proposal ahead of crucial talks in Saudi Arabia, calling it “the kind of concession needed to end the conflict.” Ukraine is expected to propose an aerial and naval truce during negotiations between Ukrainian officials and U.S. representatives including Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The talks follow President Trump’s suspension of military aid to pressure Kyiv toward peace negotiations, with Rubio indicating aid could resume if Ukraine demonstrates commitment to a diplomatic solution. President Zelensky met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday but will not participate directly in Tuesday’s discussions. More - BBC ...

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. Three headlines from the weekend. (A summary of all of last week’s big stories is the in audio summary below.) 🇨🇦 Carney Elected as Canadian Prime Minister Former central banker Mark Carney won the Liberal Party leadership race with 85.9% of the vote and will become Canada’s prime minister within days amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The incoming leader faces immediate challenges from Trump’s chaotic tariff policies, including imminent 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports and threats against Canadian lumber and dairy products. Carney, who positioned himself as an experienced crisis manager, pledged to find new export markets and scrap planned capital gains tax increases while warning “no way” to Trump’s suggestion of making Canada “the 51st state.” More - Bloomberg ...

Assad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two stories to help you stay up on top of things. 🇸🇾 Assad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces Assad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad’s fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced “coastal shield regiment” led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. More - Al Jazeera ...

US Recession Signals, Fighting Words from China and USAID Cuts Cause Starvation in Sudan Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇸 US Recession Signals Mount JPMorgan’s market-implied probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 17% in November, with some indicators suggesting a 50% chance of economic contraction. The risk assessment comes amid weakening factory activity, declining consumer confidence, and market volatility triggered by Trump’s newly implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. While unemployment remains low at around 4%, economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate a 25% probability of contraction within a year as stagflation concerns grow. More - Bloomberg ...

Trade Wars Kick Off and an Alternate Plan for Gaza from the Middle East Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🏴‍☠️ Trade War(s) Kick Off In response to US tariffs, Canada refused to concede to American pressure and responded with reciprocal measures. China and Mexico have also vowed retaliatory measures to come soon. However, by evening, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs could be lifted as early as Wednesday, deepening confusion. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Tariffs Kick In, Oil Production Increase and Gaza Ceasefire in Danger Andrew Sheves Good morning. Three quick headlines worth tracking. **President Trump Confirms Canada, Mexico and Chinese Tariffs. ** 🛑 Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect Tuesday, with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, sending U.S. stock indexes sharply lower. Canada called the tariffs “an existential threat” with thousands of jobs at stake, while all three countries have promised retaliatory measures. The president dismissed economic concerns, suggesting foreign manufacturers should “build their car plants in the United States”. More - BBC ...

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. Here are this week’s stability ratings and the audio review of last week’s stories. Reminder: this audio is an AI-summary of last week’s reports. AI can make mistakes — particularly in the subtleties of International relations — so please review any situation carefully before you make major decisions. **Want to include these ratings in your own system? ** ...

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events Andrew Sheves ** In partnership with ** ](https://magic.beehiiv.com/v1/4d03390d-2481-4299-b949-ffd8b38b4c38?email={{email}}&utm_campaign=XO7DWEQZLV&redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fsubscribe.therundown.ai%2F%3Fform%3Dopen&redirect_delay=1&_gl=11qqix25_gcl_auMTYwNDc0Mjg2OC4xNzI5NTMyNjYw_gaMTk2YzU4MDctZGFlZi00MjQ3LWIzZDYtYTQ1MTUwMmJiZTQ0_ga_E6Y4WLQ2EC*MTczMjUxMTg2Ny4yNTkzLjEuMTczMjUxMzM4My42MC4wLjE4NTk3NDE3MTE.&bhiiv=opp_fba53f81-2740-4c36-96fe-60e793d15369_e4221c46&bhcl_id=14f77182-d5a5-40e8-8698-8ce5dd413558_SUBSCRIBER_ID{{email_address_id}}) Happy Monday. As I mentioned on Friday, I’m switching the SITREP format and will be trying a couple of different schedules over the next few weeks. Mondays will always be the complete stability ratings overview but today I’m also including an audio brief summarizing last week’s news. This gives you a quick overview of the main events from the last seven days to prep you for the week ahead. ...

SITREP changes and an AI talk this weekend Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines today but a quick announcement on some upcoming changes to the SITREPs. Our mission at Decis is simple: to provide you with a tailored, focused report on what’s relevant to you to help you adapt and respond quickly. And given that we can produce these reports up to 100x faster that the alternatives and customize down to the individual level, I like to think we’re pretty good* at it. ...

Upcoming Germany Elections and Cuts at the Pentagon Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick reads this morning. 🇩🇪 German elections taking place this Sunday will determine not only who will lead Europe’s biggest economy, but how influential the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is. Bloomberg has a good overview here. 🇺🇸 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has demanded cuts of $50 billion at the Pentagon and a reordering of US defense priorities. ...