Posts

Upcoming Germany Elections and Cuts at the Pentagon Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick reads this morning. 🇩🇪 German elections taking place this Sunday will determine not only who will lead Europe’s biggest economy, but how influential the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is. Bloomberg has a good overview here. 🇺🇸 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has demanded cuts of $50 billion at the Pentagon and a reordering of US defense priorities. ...

Ukraine’s Worst Day Since the Russian Invasion Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦 Yesterday was the most consequential day for Ukraine since the Russian invasion three years ago. US statements after the talks between the US and Russia did little to push back Russia’s demands that Ukraine cede any territory held by Russia, would not join NATO and that no foreign troops be stationed in the country. But the real damage came at a press conference Tuesday afternoon when President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war, attacked President Zelenskyy personally, and demanded that presidential elections take place as part of any peace deal. Trump and Zelenskyy have had a difficult relationship but this is the most hostile Trump has been towards the Ukrainian leader and this seems to cement Zelenskyy’s exclusion from negotiations. [More - Politico] ...

Ukraine Peace Talks Begin In Riyadh, Minus Ukraine Andrew Sheves Good morning. The US and Russian foreign ministers are meeting in Riyadh to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. The meetings will set the scene for future discussions but have deliberately excluded European and Ukrainian participants. [More - BBC] Comment - These talks are taking place on the heels of last week’s comments by the US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, that Ukraine would have to concede land already held by Russia and that NATO membership was off the table. Meanwhile, US documents sent to Kyiv appear to demand significant reparations be paid to the US without any meaningful security guarantees in return. The framing of these negotiations is shocking European capitals — a feature, not a bug, of the US approach — but significantly weaken Europe, threaten to bankrupt Ukraine, and undercut trust in the US and the NATO alliance. A deal on these terms will be less Winston Churchillian and more Neville Chamberlain. ...

M23 expands in Congo and European Leaders Convene Emergency Security Talks Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. 🇨🇩 M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the second largest city in eastern Congo, strengthening their hold on the region. Mediation talks sponsored by the African Union are ongoing but making little progress. [More - BBC] 🇪🇺 European leaders are convening an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss European Security. These talks follow last week’s comments from US officials and President Trump announcing that he was unilaterally staring peace talks on Ukraine with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. [More - Politico] ...

Worldwide tariffs on US imports coming April 1 and Car Attack in Germany Deepens Anti-Immigrant Sentiment in Election Run-Up. Andrew Sheves Good morning. Happy Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day. 🚢 President Trump has ordered trade and commerce officials to design a set of reciprocal tariffs for all countries that impose any form of levy on US imports. These include import taxes but also things like value-added tax (VAT) and other point-of-sale taxes. This is a very broad and complex measure where each country would be subject to reciprocal import duties in addition to commodity duties (such as the proposed 25% tax on copper), hugely complicating supply line cost calculations for US businesses. The tariffs are set to come into force on April 1st, leaving time for bargaining, but businesses are advised to begin preparing for interruption and/or increased costs for all imported goods. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Ukraine 0 - Russia 1 Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦 Ukraine cannot join NATO and must accept territorial losses, according to the US Secretary of Defense whose comments were closely followed by an announcement by President Trump that he and Russia’s Vladimir Putin had met by phone and agreed to start negotiations on Ukraine’s future. Cut out of discussions, NATO allies and Ukrainian leaders were left shocked at the announcements which concede to two of Russia’s main demands before negotiations begin. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Shell Nigeria Clean Up Criticisms, FCPA Pause and the Slow March Back to Conflict in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇳🇬 Shell allegedly ignored repeated warnings about corruption and mismanagement in its $1bn oil pollution clean-up operation in Nigeria’s Ogoniland region. Whistleblowers claim that Shell was aware that the clean-up project was awarding contracts to inexperienced companies, falsifying lab results, and inflating costs. The revelations come as Shell faces a High Court trial in London this week, where 50,000 Ogoniland residents seek compensation for oil spills that occurred between 1989 and 2020. [More - BBC] ...

Decis Audio Briefing Demo[ The world doesn’t need a new podcast (but you might) Andrew Sheves 🙀 My mind is officially blown. I tested Google’s Notebook LM (no, I don’t know why this took me so long to test) and am really impressed with the results. I gave it all of last week’s regional reports and it turned these into a conversation-style podcast. But it’s not just two voices reading the reports verbatim: it’s a natural-sounding discussion. ...

Gaza ceasefire teeters; Indian forces kill 31 rebels; Cook Islands-China deal sparks tension Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸 The ceasefire in Gaza is close to collapse as Hamas has suspended hostage transfers, accusing Israel of “violations and its failure to comply with the terms of the agreement.” Israel has responded by placing its military on high alert, while Donald Trump has said that if all hostages are not released by Saturday, the deal should be scrapped. (Note, the deal does not call for all hostages to be released by Saturday but in a phased transfer through March 1.) [Live coverage - BBC] ...

Trade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Prepare for More Trade Uncertainty Last week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains. Meanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [More Bloomberg] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [More - Politico] ...