Posts

What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like. Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China. For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs. TikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little. ...

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like. Andrew Sheves Apologies but an earlier version of the SITREP went out with some errors in it. Here’s the corrected version. Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China. For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs. ...

Turkey / PKK Ceasefire Rumors and Houthis Suspend Read Sea Attacks Andrew Sheves Good morning. A brief reprieve from the Trump whirlwind… 🇹🇷 The Middle East Institute’s Gönül Tol is reporting that **a deal between the Turkish government and the PKK is planned **that would see the Kurdish group cease military operations on February 15th. In return, there would be an amnesty in Turkey and a redrafting of the constitution to provide greater recognition of the Kurds. The full post follows. ...

Tariff uncertainty, West Bank raids and Troop surge in Columbia. Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🧾 Tariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high. ...

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Trump’s Day One EO Blizzard and Palestinians Return to Ruins in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. Before we cover Monday’s frenetic Day One for the incoming Trump administration, some stark images and statistics illustrate the immense challenge that still lies ahead for the Palestinians. 🇵🇸 There are estimates that 92% of housing in Gaza has been destroyed. So, while the current ceasefire allows families to move back into cleared areas, very few have homes to go to. [More - BBC] ...

The rules for Trump 2.0 Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Allow me an observation on the cusp of the second Trump Presidency It’s Inauguration Day and DC is full of two kinds of Trump supporters. Billionaires spent the weekend celebrating at black-tie events, anticipating a freer, free market, looser regulation, and a more mercantile approach to everything from lawmaking to foreign policy. Meanwhile, Trump voters who couldn’t stump up millions of dollars in support are tramping around a wet, snowy DC, unable to attend the (now indoors) inauguration. ...

Israel split by peace deal Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Despite last-minute jitters, Israel and Hamas agreed to final ceasefire terms on Thursday but now the focus shifts to the Israeli cabinet which is currently meeting to vote on the deal [More - Washington Post]. The cabinet’s far-right members are vehemently opposed to the deal, threatening to bring down the government if it is approved.[More - Reuters] Many of their supporters spent Thursday night protesting the agreement, calling it a ‘Hamas victory’. ...

Gaza peace deal Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🕊️ Israel and Hamas have finally agreed to ceasefire terms to end the 15-month-long conflict. The deal, due to start Sunday, reportedly takes place in three stages. **Stage One - **Six weeks. Full ceasefire. Hostage exchange: 33 hostages (women, children, elderly, and the sick but no men) held by Hamas will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops to withdraw from all populated areas in Gaza. ...

Yoon arrested in Seoul, mining siege in South Africa and EU considers additional Russian sanctions Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇰🇷 Police in South Korea finally arrested ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol in relation to his impeachment in early January following his imposition of martial law in December. Yoon has been avoiding police and refusing to cooperate with the authorities since his removal from power in December.[More - BBC] 🇿🇦 South African police rescued 82 trapped miners and recovered the bodies of 36 more from an illegal mine in Stilfontein, south of Johannesburg. Hundreds more miners remain trapped underground. Mining organizations accuse the police of sealing the miners underground, while the police argue that the miners refuse to leave the mine for fear of arrest. [More - Al Jazeera] ...

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Peace deal nears in Gaza, Lebanon’s new PM and Trump cabinet picks begin confirmation hearings. Andrew Sheves Good morning. xx 🕊️ Statements from officials in Doha and Washington indicate that a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is close to agreement. Several influential Israeli politicians on the right vehemently oppose a ceasefire and a similar deal has been under discussion since May last year so a breakthrough is not guaranteed. [More - BBC] ...