Posts

Russia admits to downing a civilian airliner, grim end of year conflict statistics and RIP Jimmy Carter Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the last Monday of 2024. Some weekend headlines and stories that might have slipped by over the last week. Russia admitted that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on December 25th was hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire. The Azeri President has accepted that this was an accident, but it highlights the danger for airlines operating near conflict zones, even where there is no official airspace warning in place. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] ...

Africa summary Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Just the metrics and the regional report today. Need Help Crisis Planning? It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much. The problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it’s hard to know where to start. ...

Pro-Assad Resistance in Syria and Russia Targeting Transnistria (Again) Andrew Sheves Good morning. It’s an abbreviated SITREP today, but there are two stories worth tracking. Despite the calm in the majority of Syria following the HTS takeover, several majority Alawite towns in Syria remain pro-Assad strongholds. An ambush on Tuesday left 14 HTS-affiliated police dead and 10 wounded as the police tried to arrest a former regime figure. Currently, this doesn’t seem to indicate the beginnings of a counter-HTS insurgency, but it is a reminder that Syria remains somewhat fractured and that many of the former-regime figures are implicated in Assad’s crimes and will do whatever they can to avoid capture. [SOURCE - BBC] ...

Happy Chrismukkah 🎅 🕎 Andrew Sheves Good morning. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those celebrating. Just the numbers and regional info today. Key Metrics WTI is $71.03 (Down) Low |—- < —————| High Wheat is $185.735 (Down) Low |—— < ————-| High EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down) Low | < ——————-| High YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged) Low |———- < > ———| High Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days ...

New French Cabinet: plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose Andrew Sheves Good morning. Greetings from Aberdeen, Scotland, where we’re enjoying a whopping 6 ½ hours of daylight today…. Two headlines from Europe are worth tracking as a taster of what things will look like in 2025. In France, Prime Minister François Bayrou selected Eric Lombard as finance minister, tasked with finding a budget to satisfy all parties in a divided French parliament. Budget concerns were the stated reason for France’s opposition parties bringing down the previous government, so finding an acceptable solution is key for France’s stability, but the view is that Bayrou / Lombard will not significantly differ from the previous government. [SOURCE - Financial Times] ...

New Metrics Demo[ No Live Ratings Today Andrew Sheves Good morning - I’m transitioning the newsletters to a new system so am resynching everything, meaning that there are no updated country baseline ratings today. (These are still available and cuup to date in the workspace). Instead, here’s what the updated SITREP metrics will look like. Key Metrics WTI is $71.03 (Down) Low |—- < —————| High Wheat is $197.372 (Down) ...

Shutdown looms in DC and US Diplomats in Damascus Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick updates to kick us off. The US government seems headed for a shutdown as House Republicans scuttled their own stopgap bill on Thursday night. This follows their rejection of a long-negotiated bipartisan spending bill after opposition from Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Government funding runs out at midnight. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] In another positive step in Syria’s transition, US representatives have met with the HTS-led interim government in Syria. [SOURCE - BBC] ...

Shutdown looms in DC and what this means for 2025. Andrew Sheves Good morning. One big headline worth considering today. US Republicans in the House pulled a bipartisan spending bill that would have funded the government until Spring following Tweets condemning the bill from Elon Musk and opposition from President-elect Donald Trump. Current funding runs out at midnight on Friday, and the house is due to recess this weekend. [SOURCE - BBC] ...

Streamlined version Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines to share today, let’s get right to the ratings and news. Commodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)** $70.52 💵 **USD:EUR ** $1.05 ₿ Bitcoin $104,564 As at Dec 18, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making. Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom ...

Russian General Assassination, Mass Graves in Syria and Vanuatu Earthquake Andrew Sheves Good morning. Some quick headlines worth tracking. Ukraine assassinated Russian General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. Kirillov was head of the Russian chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons program and a Russian military spokesman. [SOURCE - France24] A large A 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck near Vanuatu’s capital, causing widespread destruction but casualty numbers and the full extent of the damage are still unclear. [[SOURCE - BBC](http://A 7.3 magnitude earthquake has struck near Vanuatu’s capital Port Vila)] ...