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There’s still only one big story right now: banks. And rather than being out of the woods, as many are hoping, I think we might have just gotten into the woods. Keep in mind that something the increased rates are designed to do is expose and break weaknesses in the financial system. This is harsh medicine and not something anyone welcomes but, when there’s a build-up of toxicity, this kind of cleanse is necessary. The problem is that you need to see it through, not quit just as it starts to have an effect. My view is that this is why the Fed and others continued with rate increases this week not despite the failure of some banks, but because of the failure of some banks. ...

Image (C) Bloomberg In the last few weeks, US banks Sivergate, Signature, and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, while First Republic Bank required a $30bn bailout from larger Wall Street Firms. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Swiss bank Credit Suisse has been bought by rival UBS. Each of these banks was in a different position, and no single factor caused these banks to get into trouble. However, these recent events provide some essential takeaways for risk and communications managers. Here are four I think are worth thinking about. ...

Daily SITREP for Friday, March 17, 2023 Read this on the Blog Welcome to the SITREP for Friday, March 17, 2023. Two very different banking crises played out this last week and, while both seem to be over, the panicky reactions in world markets indicates a lot of FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) has built up. This suggests that companies won’t get the benefit of the doubt if there’s a stumble or any sign of weakness. ...

Recently, there was a great discussion on the frequency of crisis management exercises in a forum I’m part of. What was most surprising to me was the degree of consensus on the ideal tempo. The vast majority of folks recommended a quarterly & annual frequency. – Quarterly low-intensity tabletops focused on skills development and team cohesion. – Annual high-intensity simulations to reinforce learning and test teams and systems in a realistic environment. ...

To be successful, the process would have to: Be faster than if I did it ‘by hand’ Produce realistic inputs Be easily repeatable Allow for customization to meet client needs The outputs had to include: Ideas for scenarios A short video news report Social media clips Text for a news story This left me with five challenges to solve: Get ChatGPT into my workspace. Generate scenario ideas. Generate supporting text material. Generate a video news clip input. Generate social media inputs. Here’s how the AI Crisis Management Exercise Build Hackathon* went down. (*Attendee one) ...

Good morning. 💕 Happy Valentine’s Day 💕 It’s a slightly different intro today because I’ve some exciting news to share. I know, I know. Every email you get starts with someone saying how excited they are: excited that you signed up for free coupons, excited that you joined an exclusive group of only 3,289,000 other professions, excited that you chose their firm to clean your windows, etc., etc. I get it. ...

Good morning. A recent outbreak of bird flu has been detected in mammals raising concerns that a variant of the H5N1 virus could eventually infect humans. The chances of this are slim but it’s a good reminder to review plans nevertheless. Meanwhile, the metrics are a mix of extremes: wheat and iron and steel are at some of their highest prices for the 90-day period, while shipping and the VIX are at their lowest. Oil is relatively low but has been fluctuating recently. ...

Good morning. ding! You’ve got mail…. 📬 Welcome to the first Daily SITREP! No more anxiously waiting between updates: now you’ll be getting the metrics and critical events delivered to your inbox daily, Monday – Friday. Please keep the feedback coming – that way, I can make this as useful as possible (and not waste valuable space in your inbox). Yesterday was Blue Monday when the reality of the New Year sets in: whatever excitement there was around the holidays has faded, the decorations are back in the attic, and we’ve all gotten used to writing ‘2023’ on our checks. And there was a similar feeling with the key metrics: movements are relatively gentle and valuations seem to be stabilizing for the moment as things settle into the New year. Unfortunately, some of this stability comes from pretty grim contributing factors – there’s no let up in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, for example – and the results are no less pleasant as the cost of living bites and layoffs continue. Nevertheless, this is a moment of relative calm which should be appreciated. And a bit like your New Year’s resolutions, it’s worth reviewing any big plans you made for your organization in early January to see if those are still great ideas now the enthusiasm has ebbed a little. ...

Good morning. ENI is about to sign a new gas deal with Libya which is good news but adds a fraction of what the EU needs. Fiddly fingers (that’s a technical term – look it up) caused Tuesday’s wild opening on the NYSE while it was Microsoft’s turn on Wednesday. Meanwhile, several recent stories about Egypt bring the combined challenges of what prices, inflation and sovereign debt info focus. These same conditions exist in many countries so the stories are worth reading to get a sense of what’s going on in frontier markets. ...

Good morning. America hit the debt limit yesterday: that means no more borrowing is possible until the debt ceiling is lifted. The government will keep running and paying the bills for a few months because funds have already been appropriated or because the extraordinary measures introduced by Treasury Secretary Yellen provide additional financial flexibility. The political back and forth has begun: House Republicans are vowing to force the White House to make tough choices on spending cuts while the Biden administration has refused to negotiate, calling this “economic vandalism”. ...