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Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike, Brazil Orders Bolsonaro House Arrest, DRC-Rwanda Economic Framework Agreed Good morning, 🇮🇳 Trump Threatens India Tariff Hike President Trump vowed to “substantially raise” tariffs on Indian exports beyond the current 25% rate over India’s purchases of Russian oil, saying New Delhi profits from reselling discounted Russian crude on global markets. India’s foreign ministry slammed the targeting as “unjustified and unreasonable,” noting it began buying Russian oil after traditional supplies were diverted to Europe and the US “encouraged such imports.” The escalation comes ahead of Trump’s August 8 deadline for Russia to reach a Ukraine truce, with secondary sanctions threatened against countries buying Russian energy as India has become a major buyer at 1.7 million barrels daily. More - Bloomberg ...

OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger, Colombian Ex-President Uribe SentencedEl Salvador Scraps Term Limits Good morning. 🛢️OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger OPEC+ completed a two-year oil strategy chapter by approving a final 547,000 barrel-per-day production increase, reversing massive 2023 supply cuts one year ahead of schedule to reclaim market share. The group left traders uncertain about another 1.66 million barrels daily that remain offline until 2026, with delegates saying “all options remain on the table” including further increases, pausing, or even reversing recent policy. With oil futures down 6.7% this year near $70 and forecasters predicting a slide toward $60, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ will likely pause output increases as global markets face a projected 2 million barrel-per-day surplus in Q4. More - Bloomberg ...

Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect, US Envoy Visits Gaza Aid Sites Good morning and happy August. 🇺🇸 Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect Trump’s tariff blitz pushed average US levies to 15% - roughly six times higher than a year ago and the steepest since the 1930s - with rates ranging from 10% baseline to punitive levels like 39% for Switzerland. Bloomberg Economics estimates the tariff hike could cut US GDP by 1.8% and lift core prices by 1.1% over two to three years, creating a “serious demand shock” for the global economy according to former IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan. Markets responded more mutedly than April’s initial shock, but economists warn greater pass-through to US consumers lies ahead as the “universal” nature of tariffs makes it harder for exporters to absorb costs. More - Bloomberg ...

Ukraine parliament votes to restore anti-corruption agencies, Sudan Camp Children Die From Hunger, Trump’s Tariff Deadline Frenzy Andrew Sheves Good morning 🇺🇦 Ukraine parliament votes to restore anti-corruption agencies This story is just breaking at the time of writing. Read more on Al Jazeera 🇸🇩** Sudan Camp Children Die From Hunger** Thirteen children died last month from severe food shortages at Lagawa displacement camp in Sudan’s East Darfur state, medics reported, as famine spreads through the war-torn region. The Sudan Doctors Network documented “deteriorating humanitarian conditions” and widespread malnutrition at the camp housing 7,000 people, which has faced repeated attacks by armed groups. The deaths highlight Sudan’s deepening humanitarian crisis after 27 months of civil war between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, with nearly a million people now in famine conditions and cholera outbreaks spreading in Darfur. More - BBC ...

Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum, UK to Recognize Palestine by September, Pacific Tsunami Alert After Russia Quake Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦** Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum** Russian forces killed 25 people in overnight strikes on Ukraine, including 17 inmates when glide bombs hit Bilenke prison and three people at a Kamianske hospital including a 23-year-old pregnant woman named Diana. The attacks come as Trump toughened his truce ultimatum to Russia, reducing the previous 50-day deadline issued to Putin earlier this month during his UK visit. Ukraine’s human rights commissioner called the prison attack a gross violation of humanitarian law, while five more people were killed in Kharkiv region as villagers gathered for humanitarian aid near a local shop that was destroyed by rocket fire. More - BBC ...

Thailand Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach, “Worst Case” Famine in Gaza: UN Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇹🇭 🇰🇭** Thailand Accuses Cambodia of Ceasefire Breach** Thailand accused Cambodia of violating a hours-old ceasefire just after it took effect at midnight Tuesday, though Cambodia said there were “no armed clashes” since the truce began following intense fighting up to the deadline. The ceasefire followed escalating border conflict that began in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed, intensifying last week after five Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine and Cambodia fired rockets into Thailand killing civilians. The truce was brokered by Malaysia after Trump threatened to halt tariff negotiations until the Southeast Asian neighbors stopped fighting, with both sides agreeing to pull back armies and accept independent monitoring. ...

Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇹🇼** Taiwan Recall Election Fails, Boosts China** All 24 Kuomintang lawmakers survived recall elections in Taiwan, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party and preserving the opposition’s 62-51 legislative majority that blocks defense spending increases. The landslide defeat hands Beijing new ammunition to claim Lai lacks popular support, with China’s Taiwan Affairs Office saying the results show the DPP’s “political manipulation” lacks backing. Analysts warn the outcome may embolden Beijing’s pressure campaign while removing incentives for opposition lawmakers to moderate positions on military spending that Trump has demanded Taiwan increase for US protection. More - Bloomberg ...

France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse, Thai-Cambodia Conflict Explainer Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸** France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse** French President Macron announced France will recognize Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September, making it the largest European country to do so amid growing anger over Israel’s Gaza war that has killed 59,587 Palestinians. Separately, US envoy Steve Witkoff withdrew from Gaza ceasefire talks, accusing Hamas of showing “a lack of desire” to reach agreement, while Israel also recalled its negotiating team from Qatar. Hamas expressed surprise at the US withdrawal and affirmed its commitment to continue negotiations, as at least 115 Palestinians have died from malnutrition since October with aid groups warning of “mass starvation.” ...

Ukraine Protests Over Corruption Changes, Brazil Joins ICJ Genocide Case Andrew Sheves Good morning 🇺🇦** Ukraine Protests Over Corruption Changes** Thousands of Ukrainians protested in Kyiv and other cities after President Zelensky signed a law stripping anti-corruption bodies NABU and SAP of their independence, marking the largest anti-government demonstrations since Russia’s 2022 invasion. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen demanded “explanations” from Ukraine’s government, with her spokesman warning there “cannot be a compromise” on rule of law standards for EU candidate countries. Critics see the move as a return to pre-2014 corruption under pro-Russian President Yanukovych, potentially undermining Ukraine’s EU integration prospects that many feel they’re paying for with Russian bloodshed. More - BBC ...

Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza, Trump Strikes Trade Deal with Japan, Philippines Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸** Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza** At least 15 Palestinians, including four children, starved to death in a single day in Gaza, bringing the total malnutrition deaths since Israel’s war began to 101, with 80 of them children. 600,000 people are estimated to be malnourished as Israel continues to prevent food deliveries into the Strip. UN Secretary-General Guterres called Gaza a “horror show with a level of death and destruction without parallel in recent times,” with nearly 88% of the territory now under Israeli displacement orders or militarized zones, forcing 2.3 million people into ever-shrinking space. More - Al Jazeera ...