Posts

Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks, 11 Killed in Kenya Protests, Trump Extends Tariff Deadline Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🛢️ Oil Steadies Despite Tariff, Red Sea Attacks Oil steadied near $69 per barrel as traders focused on potential fallout from Trump’s new tariffs and escalating Red Sea attacks, with Brent holding gains after Monday’s 1.9% advance despite OPEC+ announcing larger-than-expected supply increases for August. A second vessel was targeted near Yemen hours after Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for an earlier ship attack, raising Middle East tensions despite the fragile Israel-Iran truce. Trump announced tariffs starting August 1 on Japan, South Korea and other partners but suggested negotiations remain possible, while diesel markets show tightness with US stockpiles at lowest seasonal levels since 1996. More - Bloomberg ...

Red Sea Attack, Russia Recognizes Taliban Government Andrew Sheves 🚢** Red Sea Attack** A commercial vessel in the Red Sea came under attack from small boats firing rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons, forcing the crew to abandon the burning ship as it took on water. The Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas was struck by four unmanned surface vehicles 94km southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah port in an attack matching the “established Houthi target profile.” The incident threatens to escalate Red Sea tensions at a sensitive moment as Gaza ceasefire talks continue and Iran considers restarting nuclear negotiations. More - Al Jazeera ...

Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts, Trump Sets August Tariff Start Andrew Sheves Good morning. Happy Birthday America 🇺🇸 🇺🇦** Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts** Russia launched a record 550 drones and 11 missiles against Ukraine overnight, with 72 penetrating air defenses and hitting almost every district of Kyiv, killing at least one woman and wounding 23 people just hours after a “disappointing” call between Trump and Putin. More - BBC ...

Breaking: Ferry Sinks Off Bali, US Claims 1-2 Year Setback to Iran Nuclear Program, Trump Demands Fed Chair Quit Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇩** Breaking: Ferry Sinks Off Bali** Dozens missing after ferry carrying 65 people sinks off Indonesia’s Bali. Live Tracker - Al Jazeera 🇮🇷** US Claims 1-2 Year Setback to Iran Nuclear Program** Pentagon officials said US airstrikes set back Iran’s nuclear program by one to two years, backing Trump’s claims the facilities were “completely obliterated” despite earlier Defense Intelligence Agency assessments suggesting only months of delay. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the strikes at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz degraded Iran’s physical capability to construct a bomb, though the location of Iran’s 409-kilogram near-bomb-grade uranium inventory remains unknown. Iran has cut communication with IAEA officials and formally ended inspections after the June strikes. More - Bloomberg ...

Trump Won’t Delay Tariff Deadline, Thai PM Suspended, Israel Kills 109 in Gaza While Trump Promises to be ‘Firm’ Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇸** Trump Won’t Delay Tariff Deadline** President Trump ruled out extending his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume, threatening to impose duties on several nations despite ongoing negotiations. So far, only the UK and China have put trade frameworks in place and no deals have been formalized, despite the 90-day delay. Trump criticized Japan, particularly for not accepting US rice exports, and said he would impose 30-35% tariffs due to trade imbalances, calling the country “very spoiled” and doubting a deal will be reached. Markets reacted with the S&P 500 dropping 14 points on the news, while Trump sounded more optimistic about finalizing a trade agreement with India within days. More - Bloomberg ...

European Heat Wave, Iran Refuses IAEA Inspection Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇪🇺** European Heat Wave ‘Unprecedented’** France issued red alerts for 16 regions including Paris as “unprecedented” heat grips Europe, with 84 of 96 mainland regions under warnings and nearly 200 schools closed. Spain and Portugal recorded their hottest June days ever at 46 °C and 46.6 °C respectively, while 21 Italian cities, including Rome, are on the highest alert with hospitals reporting 10% more heatstroke cases. The extreme temperatures have sparked wildfires across Turkey, Croatia and Greece, forced evacuations, and lowered Rhine River levels, disrupting cargo shipping. More - BBC ...

Israel’s Gaza Campaign Grinds On Andrew Sheves Comment - I haven’t included an update on Gaza every day, but the summary below is sadly not unusual. Between 50 and 100 people are being killed daily, and many more are injured in the ongoing campaign. Meanwhile, a grotesque real-life Hunger Games is taking place, requiring people to run a ‘free fire’ gauntlet to reach food distribution sites. Peace talks are ongoing, but the gulf between the parties remains significant and the desire to genuinely reach a deal is questionable. ...

US-China Trade Deal Andrew Sheves Good morning. It’s a slimmed-down SITREP today from the woods of North Carolina so just the regional summary and one story of note. Normal service will resume on Monday. US China Trade Deal Finalized The US and China signed a trade understanding two days ago that codifies terms from Geneva talks, with China committing to deliver rare earth materials in exchange for US lifting export restrictions. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal removes US “countermeasures” on ethane, chip software and jet engines once rare earth shipments begin flowing. Trump plans to finalize trade deals with 10 major partners by his July 9 deadline to reinstate higher tariffs, sorting countries into “proper buckets” based on negotiation outcomes. More - Bloomberg ...

Trump Announces Iran Talks, Kenya Protests Kill 16, Injure Hundreds Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇸** 🇮🇷 Trump Announces Iran Talks** President Trump said the US will meet with Iran next week but questioned the need for a nuclear agreement, claiming American bombing “obliterated” key atomic sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. Trump declared the Middle East conflict “over” as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held for a second day, though he disputed Pentagon intelligence that the strikes only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months. Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed nuclear installations were “badly damaged” while parliament approved suspending IAEA cooperation until sites are secured. More - Bloomberg ...

Israel-Iran Conflict Latest, Trump Rejects DIA Iran Strike Assessment, Gaza Aid ‘Death Trap’, Andrew Sheves Good morning. Admin note: I am traveling for the next few days so the SITREPS will be slimmed down for the remainder of the week. As a reminder, you can access country reports anytime through your workspace account or via the Chrome extension. 🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Latest** This will be the last daily summary of the conflict unless the ceasefire breaks down ...