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Israel Strikes Iran, Air India Crash Kills 241, Marines Deploy to LA as US Protests Spread, China Drops Africa Tariffs plus Weekend Diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning and apologies for the delayed SITREP. 🚨** **Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Strike on Iran **This is the initial briefing from the Decis Analysis engine. **The full Decis analysis and scenario forecasts are here Updated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025 Timeline of Events Early hours of June 13, 2025: Israel launches a large-scale military operation against Iran, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion.” The strikes involve approximately 200 aircraft targeting roughly 100 sites across Iran. The operation is described as an extended campaign and represents the widest direct attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War. ...

Air India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off, IAEA Censures Iran and US Draws Down Regional Presence, Anti-Immigrant Riots in Northern Ireland Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🚨** Breaking - Air India Jet Crashes Shortly After Take Off** An Air India jet headed from Ahmedabad to London crashed shortly after takeoff. Via the BBC “Air India has set up a dedicated passenger hotline number. Families in India seeking more information can call 1800 5691 444” Live Tracker - BBC ...

Austrian School Shooting, UK and Allies Sanction Israeli Ministers, Kirchner Banned From Office Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇦🇹** 10 Killed in Austrian School Shooting** A 21-year-old former student killed 10 people at a Graz secondary school before taking his own life, marking Austria’s deadliest gun attack in recent history. The gunman legally owned the two firearms used and acted alone, with his motive still under investigation. Austria declared three days of national mourning, with Chancellor Christian Stocker calling it a “national tragedy.” More - BBC ...

Record Drone Strike on Ukraine Before POW Exchange, US-China Talks Continue Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇺🇦** Record Drone Strike on Ukraine Before POW Exchange** Russia launched 479 drones against Ukraine in the war’s largest overnight bombardment, with Ukrainian forces downing 460 drones and 19 missiles. The massive attack came despite Russia’s stated interest in peace talks and just before the start of a prisoner exchange involving around 1,200 POWs from each side. Only 10 projectiles reached their targets, injuring one person. More - Al Jazeera ...

Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions, Trump Travel Ban Expands as LA Riots Escalate, Kampala Suicide Bombing, Colombian Presidential Candidate Shot Andrew Sheves Good morning, Five stories to help you catch up after the weekend. 🇹🇭** 🇰🇭 Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions** Thailand and Cambodia will return forces to previously agreed positions after a May 28 firefight killed a Cambodian soldier along their disputed border. Thailand has taken control of all 17 border crossings and shortened operating hours at 10, citing threats to sovereignty. Cambodia seeks International Court resolution while Thailand prefers bilateral talks, leaving fundamental disagreements unresolved. More - Al Jazeera ...

Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset, Israel Strikes Beirut Andrew Sheves Good morning. ☪️ عِيد مُبَارَك 🇨🇳** 🇺🇸 Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset** President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks “shortly” after a 90-minute call that appeared to break an impasse over rare earth minerals and other disputes that had derailed their Geneva agreement. Trump acknowledged the trade relationship had gotten “a little off track” but said they were now “in very good shape,” though he didn’t specify whether China agreed to speed export licenses for critical magnets needed by US companies. The leaders exchanged invitations to visit each other’s countries, but tensions remain over technology controls and Taiwan, with both sides having just 90 days under their Geneva tariff reduction deal to reach a broader agreement. More - Bloomberg ...

US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer, US Vetoes Gaza Ceasefire, Putin Threatens Ukraine Retaliation Andrew Sheves Good morning. ⛏️ US-China Rare Earth Exports Explainer The US-China trade deal celebrated in Geneva is fraying over rare earth exports, with Washington accusing Beijing of violating promises to restore mineral flows while China maintains licensing requirements imposed in April. China agreed to suspend sanctions on 45 US companies for 90 days but never explicitly promised to reverse export licensing for seven critical rare earths used in electric motors and hard drives. US officials expected immediate resumption of exports after Geneva talks, but Chinese licensing approvals are coming through slowly as Beijing works through bureaucratic processes, with some companies now obtaining permits but exports remaining below pre-restriction levels. Full Explainer on Bloomberg ...

Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency, Pakistan Prison Break Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇰🇷** Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency** Opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung decisively won South Korea’s presidency exactly six months after predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law attempt triggered massive protests and his impeachment. The victory represents a clear rejection of the ruling People Power Party, which voters blamed for the democratic breakdown, though Lee faces immediate challenges including ongoing Supreme Court charges and navigating a deeply polarized nation. His top priority will be negotiating a trade deal with President Trump to soften US tariff impacts while working to heal divisions in a country where turnout reached 79.4%, the highest since 1997. More - BBC ...

Bangladesh Lifts Islamist Ban, Mongolia PM Ousted Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇧🇩** Bangladesh Lifts Islamist Ban** Bangladesh’s Supreme Court restored registration for Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Muslim party, ending a decade-long ban imposed by ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. The decision allows the controversial party, which supported Pakistan during Bangladesh’s 1971 independence war, to participate in next year’s general election expected by June. The ruling came as the court also overturned a death sentence against key Jamaat leader ATM Azharul Islam for war crimes, while Hasina faces trial in absentia for her deadly crackdown on protesters that killed up to 1,400 people. More - Al Jazeera ...

Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability, Poland Elects Nationalist President Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇺🇦** Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability** Ukraine launched its largest long-range attack of the war, using 117 drones in a “Spider’s Web” operation that struck at least 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases — 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers — including facilities thousands of miles from Ukraine in Siberia. The SBU security service spent 18 months planning the complex operation, smuggling drones in wooden cabins on trucks and remotely launching them near Russian airbases, causing an estimated $7 billion in damage to strategic aviation assets. The strikes occurred as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators prepared for peace talks in Istanbul, though expectations remain low given the sides’ fundamental disagreements on ending the conflict. More - BBC ...