Africa on Andrew Sheves

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

Nepal Protest Death Toll Hits 51

Nepal’s anticorruption protest death toll reached 51 including 21 protesters, nine prisoners, and three police officers, while over 12,500 escaped prisoners remain on the run after jailbreaks during the chaos that saw parliament set ablaze and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resign. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki appears set to be appointed interim prime minister as she’s seen as an “anticorruption voice” acceptable to Gen Z protesters, though uncertainty remains whether she can serve without being a parliament member, potentially requiring dissolution of parliament or constitutional changes. The army imposed curfews and recovered over 100 looted guns as shops began reopening Friday with signs of normalcy returning to Kathmandu, while some escaped prisoners reportedly tried crossing into India where border forces apprehended scores, as Nepal faces prolonged political uncertainty in a country wedged between India and China that has struggled with instability since abolishing its monarchy in 2008. More - Al Jazeera

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning

Israel Intensifies Gaza City Campaign

Israeli forces control 40% of Gaza City as round-the-clock bombing reduces entire neighborhoods to rubble, killing 44 people Thursday including a family of five in a tent strike, with UNICEF calling it a “city of fear” trapping nearly one million residents. Military spokesperson said the operation will “continue to expand and intensify” as satellite images show over 52 Israeli vehicles forcing displacement toward the west, while hospitals overflow with casualties and al-Shifa’s morgue floor is strewn with white-shrouded bodies. US Secretary of State Rubio blamed France and other countries planning Palestinian state recognition for Israeli West Bank abuses, as the US sanctioned three Palestinian rights groups for supporting ICC war crimes investigations against Netanyahu, while EU official Teresa Ribiera called Gaza a “genocide” and criticized the bloc’s inaction as the death toll surpassed 64,000. More - Al Jazeera

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic Of The Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, The Gambia, Togo, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Lebanon Begins Disarming Palestinian Camps

Lebanon launched a plan to disarm Palestinian groups in refugee camps, starting with weapons handovers from Burj al-Barajneh camp in Beirut as part of a wider disarmament campaign expected across all camps nationwide. More - Al Jazeera

Russia Launches Heaviest Bombardment in Weeks

Russia fired 574 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine in one of the heaviest bombardments in weeks. More - BBC

EU-US Detail Trade Deal Next Steps

The US and EU formalized plans for their trade pact with specific benchmarks for European tariff reductions. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 15 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Smotrich Vows Settlement Push, China’s Economy Weakens, Pressure on Russia’s Economy

Good morning.

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Smotrich Vows Settlement Push

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich revived the long-shelved E1 Plan to build 3,000 houses near Jerusalem, vowing it will “bury the idea of a Palestinian state” as over a dozen countries prepare to recognize Palestine in September. The settlement would split East Jerusalem from the West Bank by expanding Ma’ale Adumim between Jerusalem and the Dead Sea, effectively dividing Palestinian territory into northern and southern sections. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas condemned the plan as “a breach of international law” that “undermines the two-state solution,” while Israeli NGO Peace Now warned the government is “driving us forward at full speed” toward “an abyss” as construction could begin within a year if fast-tracked approvals proceed. More - Financial Times

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Plans Gaza City Occupation, Europe Seeks Rare Earth Independence

Good morning.

🇵🇸 Israel Plans Gaza City Occupation

Israel’s security cabinet approved Prime Minister Netanyahu’s plan for military occupation of Gaza City, marking a major escalation that will force tens of thousands of starving residents to evacuate by October 7. An Israeli official said the operation involves displacing “all Palestinian civilians from Gaza City to the central camps” while imposing a siege on Hamas militants and launching a ground offensive. UK Prime Minister Starmer called the plan “wrong,” saying it “will only bring more bloodshed,” while Hamas accused Netanyahu of abandoning hostages to serve his “personal interests and extremist ideological agenda” as nearly 200 Palestinians have died from starvation in the famine-stricken territory. More - Al Jazeera

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect, US Envoy Visits Gaza Aid Sites

Good morning and happy August.

🇺🇸 Full Range of Trump Tariffs Come Into Effect

Trump’s tariff blitz pushed average US levies to 15% - roughly six times higher than a year ago and the steepest since the 1930s - with rates ranging from 10% baseline to punitive levels like 39% for Switzerland. Bloomberg Economics estimates the tariff hike could cut US GDP by 1.8% and lift core prices by 1.1% over two to three years, creating a “serious demand shock” for the global economy according to former IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan. Markets responded more mutedly than April’s initial shock, but economists warn greater pass-through to US consumers lies ahead as the “universal” nature of tariffs makes it harder for exporters to absorb costs. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse, Thai-Cambodia Conflict Explainer

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** France to Recognize Palestine; Gaza Talks Collapse**

French President Macron announced France will recognize Palestine as a state at the UN General Assembly in September, making it the largest European country to do so amid growing anger over Israel’s Gaza war that has killed 59,587 Palestinians. Separately, US envoy Steve Witkoff withdrew from Gaza ceasefire talks, accusing Hamas of showing “a lack of desire” to reach agreement, while Israel also recalled its negotiating team from Qatar. Hamas expressed surprise at the US withdrawal and affirmed its commitment to continue negotiations, as at least 115 Palestinians have died from malnutrition since October with aid groups warning of “mass starvation.”

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61, Israel Strikes Gaza Catholic Church, Weekend Diversions

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇶** Iraq Shopping Mall Fire Kills 61**

A fire at a week-old shopping center in Kut, Iraq killed 61 people with many still missing after an air conditioner explosion triggered the blaze. Survivors described being trapped as the fire spread rapidly through the mall, which lacked proper fire extinguishing systems according to witnesses who lost family members. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani ordered an immediate investigation as the tragedy highlights Iraq’s persistent safety standard problems, following similar deadly fires including a 2023 wedding party blaze that killed over 100 people and a 2021 hospital fire that claimed more than 90 lives. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed, Saudis Breach OPEC+ Quota

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇷** Iran’s Uranium Buried, Not Destroyed**

A senior Israeli official said intelligence indicates much of Iran’s enriched uranium is buried at Isfahan and could potentially be recovered, though any attempt would likely be detected and prompt renewed Israeli strikes. The assessment contradicts Trump’s repeated claims that US strikes “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities, while IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said parts of the targeted sites are “still standing.” Iran’s President Pezeshkian confirmed the facilities were “severely damaged” with no current access, though Israel believes the nuclear program was set back two years overall. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 04 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts, Trump Sets August Tariff Start

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Happy Birthday America 🇺🇸

🇺🇦** Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts**

Russia launched a record 550 drones and 11 missiles against Ukraine overnight, with 72 penetrating air defenses and hitting almost every district of Kyiv, killing at least one woman and wounding 23 people just hours after a “disappointing” call between Trump and Putin. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US-China Trade Deal

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

It’s a slimmed-down SITREP today from the woods of North Carolina so just the regional summary and one story of note. Normal service will resume on Monday.

US China Trade Deal Finalized

The US and China signed a trade understanding two days ago that codifies terms from Geneva talks, with China committing to deliver rare earth materials in exchange for US lifting export restrictions. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal removes US “countermeasures” on ethane, chip software and jet engines once rare earth shipments begin flowing. Trump plans to finalize trade deals with 10 major partners by his July 9 deadline to reinstate higher tariffs, sorting countries into “proper buckets” based on negotiation outcomes. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Latest Events, DRC - Rwanda Peace Draft, Mexico Cleans Up After Hurricane,

Andrew Sheves Good morning

Latest Developments in the Israel-Iran Conflict (June 19–20, 2025)

Direct Military Actions

Major Missile Attack on Hospital in Israel: On June 19, Iran launched a significant missile barrage against Israel, with a direct strike on Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, southern Israel. The attack left the hospital burning and resulted in at least 65 injuries. Overall, Iranian missile attacks since June 13 have killed 24 Israelis and wounded more than 800[1][3].

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Strikes Iran, Air India Crash Kills 241, Marines Deploy to LA as US Protests Spread, China Drops Africa Tariffs plus Weekend Diversions

Andrew Sheves Good morning and apologies for the delayed SITREP.

🚨** **Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Strike on Iran

**This is the initial briefing from the Decis Analysis engine. **The full Decis analysis and scenario forecasts are here

Updated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025

Timeline of Events

Early hours of June 13, 2025: Israel launches a large-scale military operation against Iran, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion.” The strikes involve approximately 200 aircraft targeting roughly 100 sites across Iran. The operation is described as an extended campaign and represents the widest direct attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset, Israel Strikes Beirut

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

☪️ عِيد مُبَارَك

🇨🇳** 🇺🇸 Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset**

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks “shortly” after a 90-minute call that appeared to break an impasse over rare earth minerals and other disputes that had derailed their Geneva agreement. Trump acknowledged the trade relationship had gotten “a little off track” but said they were now “in very good shape,” though he didn’t specify whether China agreed to speed export licenses for critical magnets needed by US companies. The leaders exchanged invitations to visit each other’s countries, but tensions remain over technology controls and Taiwan, with both sides having just 90 days under their Geneva tariff reduction deal to reach a broader agreement. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 30 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs, Hamas Rejects Ceasefire Terms

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🧑‍⚖️ Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs

A federal appeals court granted Trump a temporary reprieve from a lower court ruling that blocked his sweeping tariffs, but the White House now faces slower, more complex alternatives if the legal challenge ultimately succeeds. The administration could pursue tariffs through Section 232 investigations or other authorities, but these would take months to implement rather than the immediate impact Trump sought through emergency powers. The original ruling would have reduced effective US tariff rates from nearly 27% to below 6%, marking one of Trump’s biggest setbacks as he races to deliver results before midterm elections. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 23 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India Kills Insurgent Leader, US Sanctions Sudan

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇳** India Kills Insurgent Leader**

Indian security forces killed the leader of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) group. Nambala Keshava Rao and 26 other rebels were killed in Chhattisgarh state during a gunfight following intelligence tip-offs. This marks the first time in three decades that such a senior CPI (Maoist) commander has been eliminated by government forces, according to Home Minister Amit Shah. The operation is part of India’s massive “Black Forest” military campaign launched last month, aimed at ending the decades-long insurgency by March 2026. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 16 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults, Ukraine Peace Talks Sputter

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults**

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed concern over Gaza’s humanitarian situation as Israeli airstrikes killed 114 Palestinians on Thursday. The strikes hit homes and tents sheltering displaced families in Khan Younis, with Nasser hospital reporting 56 deaths including women and children. Gaza has been under complete Israeli blockade of all food and humanitarian supplies for 10 weeks, with the UN warning half a million people face starvation. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 09 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India / Pakistan fighting continues, UK trade deal double, and US-China talks this weekend. Plus weekend diversions

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

(Headlines from me today, not the AI.)

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Fighting between India and Pakistan continues with reports of multiple strikes into both countries, including missile and drone strikes. The situation remains precarious and fast-moving with potential for escalation. Al Jazeera has a live tracker here

Graphic: Al Jazeera

🇬🇧 The UK was in a deal-making mood, striking trade deals with India [BBC] and the USA [BBC]. Notably, this was the first deal with President Trump following the imposition of tariffs last month, although the UK has been pursuing a trade deal with the US since Brexit.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 02 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely and Imminent, Turkish Protest Arrests

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely, Imminent

Warnings are circulating that India plans to attack Pakistan in response to last week’s attack on primarily Indian tourists in Kashmir. The attack by The Resistance Front (TRF), militants believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, left 26 dead [Al Jazeera Report here]

India has a wide range of options from surgical strikes to more conventional shows of force and attacks, but there is no indication of where, when, and how they will respond.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Canada Election Summary and the Downside of Trump’s Tariff Vacillations

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇨🇦 Canadians vote on Monday (although a record number have already voted early) and the BBC has a neat summary of how the two parties compare on key issues. Unsurprisingly, both reject President Trump’s idea that Canada become America’s 51st state.

🤷 Bloomberg notes that the significant impact of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff vacillations is global uncertainty for both governments and businesses. [More - Bloomberg]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Happy Easter 🐣

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

I’m taking a couple of days off for easter weekend, so it will just be the ratings and summaries today and on Monday. Headlines and weekend diversions will return next week.

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 11 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Gaza Buffer Zones Expand, US Markets Resume Losses

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend.

🇵🇸** Israel Expands Gaza Buffer Zones**

Israel will expand its “security zones” in Gaza to include Rafah and surrounding areas, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz during a visit to troops deployed between Rafah and Khan Younis. Katz stated the military is deliberately leaving Gaza “smaller” and “more isolated” to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining hostages, adding that “all of Rafah will be evacuated and turned into a security area.” The UN reports that approximately two-thirds of Gaza is now designated as “no-go” zones or under evacuation orders since Israel resumed its offensive in March, with 390,000 Palestinians displaced once again and humanitarian aid deliveries blocked since March 2. More - BBC

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US Tariffs Cause Market Drops and Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend.

🔻** Liberation Day Causes Markets to Plunge**

US stocks suffered their worst plunge since the pandemic, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% and erasing $2.5 trillion in value as Trump’s new tariffs sparked recession fears. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, with tech giants like Apple (-9%), Tesla, and Nvidia taking heavy hits, while retail and manufacturing stocks plummeted—Nike tumbled 14% and luxury furnishing company RH crashed 40%. Bond traders boosted bets on Fed rate cuts as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%, with analysts warning tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 2 percentage points while pushing inflation to 5%. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Myanmar Earthquake. New Details on Ukrainian Minerals Deal, Arctic Cooperation Offer and N Korea’s S

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Breaking - Massive Earthquake Hits Myanmar

A powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar earlier today, causing widespread damage. Strong tremors were felt in neighboring Vietnam and Thailand, and at least one building collapsed in Bangkok. Myanmar is closed to foreign press making reporting difficult but the BBC has a Live Feed here

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Government Retakes Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Heathrow Closure, Hamas Rockets Target Israel

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇸🇩 Government Forces Retake Presidential Palace in Khartoum

Sudanese government forces have retaken the Presidential Palace in Khartoum but the opposition Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still control large parts of the Sudanese capital. [Live coverage - BBC]

🛬 Heathrow Shuts Down After Nearby Fire

London Heathrow Airport faces unprecedented closure after a nearby electrical substation fire cut power to the hub, forcing cancellations of over 1,300 flights and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. British Airways alone will see 677 flights impacted, and there are likely to be widespread knock-on travel delays for days. More - Bloomberg

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Work Still to be Done on Ukraine Peace Deal, US Shutdown Averted and Weekend Diversions

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two stories to help you stay up on top of things.

🇺🇦 US negotiator Steve Witkoff met with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss the Ukraine peace deal last night to discuss the proposed ceasefire deal. Putin reportedly “expressed solidarity” with President Trump’s position but had “voiced a number of questions that need to be answered together… There’s still a lot ahead to be done”. [BBC Live Coverage]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Assad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two stories to help you stay up on top of things.

🇸🇾 Assad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces

Assad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad’s fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced “coastal shield regiment” led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. More - Al Jazeera

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP changes and an AI talk this weekend

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

No headlines today but a quick announcement on some upcoming changes to the SITREPs.

Our mission at Decis is simple: to provide you with a tailored, focused report on what’s relevant to you to help you adapt and respond quickly. And given that we can produce these reports up to 100x faster that the alternatives and customize down to the individual level, I like to think we’re pretty good* at it.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 14 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Worldwide tariffs on US imports coming April 1 and Car Attack in Germany Deepens Anti-Immigrant Sentiment in Election Run-Up.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Happy Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day.

🚢 President Trump has ordered trade and commerce officials to design a set of reciprocal tariffs for all countries that impose any form of levy on US imports. These include import taxes but also things like value-added tax (VAT) and other point-of-sale taxes. This is a very broad and complex measure where each country would be subject to reciprocal import duties in addition to commodity duties (such as the proposed 25% tax on copper), hugely complicating supply line cost calculations for US businesses. The tariffs are set to come into force on April 1st, leaving time for bargaining, but businesses are advised to begin preparing for interruption and/or increased costs for all imported goods. [More - Bloomberg]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

ICC Sanctions and Ukraine’s Rare Earth in Trump’s Sights

Andrew Sheves ⚖️ The US has sanctioned the International Criminal Court, levying travel and financial restrictions on senior ICC staff and family members. This follows the court’s charges against Israeli politicians last year in connection with the war in Gaza but at the signing, President Trump said any court member who opened up cases against the US or other allies would be similarly sanctioned. These sanctions originated in Congress last year and the US is not a signatory to the ICC charter but Trump’s move further weakens the Court and reinforces the perception that it is only there to pursue criminals from the Global South. [More - BBC]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Storms approach California, Tariff-eve for Canada and Mexico, UNRWA Shuts and DC Airport Disaster

Andrew Sheves ☔️ An atmospheric river approaching America’s west coast is expected to cause flooding and landslides. Recent wildfires have destroyed significant numbers of trees and undergrowth, which increases the chances of mudslides and runoffs in these areas. [More - BBC]

🛑 President Trump confirmed his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning February 1 (Saturday). He was less definitive on China, so it is unclear if the proposed 10% tax would be levied on Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg]

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like.

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.

For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.

TikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus Corrected

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected

What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like.

Andrew Sheves Apologies but an earlier version of the SITREP went out with some errors in it. Here’s the corrected version.

Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China.

For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel split by peace deal

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

Despite last-minute jitters, Israel and Hamas agreed to final ceasefire terms on Thursday but now the focus shifts to the Israeli cabinet which is currently meeting to vote on the deal [More - Washington Post]. The cabinet’s far-right members are vehemently opposed to the deal, threatening to bring down the government if it is approved.[More - Reuters] Many of their supporters spent Thursday night protesting the agreement, calling it a ‘Hamas victory’.

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Machado appears in Caracas and Musk seeks to oust Starmer.

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick headlines today.

🇻🇪 Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared at a rally in Caracas on Thursday and was briefly detained by police. Machado has been in hiding since July’s rigged election and appeared a day before President Maduro’s inauguration, planned for today (Friday). Machado and her exiled running mate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia remain highly popular in Venezuela and her quick release indicates that she is still a great threat to Maduro’s government which the US and other countries fail to recognize. [More - Washington Post]

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 03 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

US House Speak elections, no apparent links in US terror attacks and dockworker strike talks. Plus, Syria’s interim government starts diplomatic outreach.

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some headlines to set you up for the weekend.

🚢 US dockworkers held off from striking over Christmas but that deal expires on January 15th. Talks begin next week to avoid a dockworker strike and automation will be a major theme issue to resolve. [More - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 27 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Africa summary

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Just the metrics and the regional report today.

Need Help Crisis Planning?

It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.

The problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it’s hard to know where to start.

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 20 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Shutdown looms in DC and US Diplomats in Damascus

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick updates to kick us off.

The US government seems headed for a shutdown as House Republicans scuttled their own stopgap bill on Thursday night. This follows their rejection of a long-negotiated bipartisan spending bill after opposition from Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Government funding runs out at midnight. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

In another positive step in Syria’s transition, US representatives have met with the HTS-led interim government in Syria. [SOURCE - BBC]

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

A Positive Note on Syria and Weekend Long Reads

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

This time last week, I wrote, “Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight”.

How wrong I was: Damascus fell with very little opposition, if any, and the transition to a caretaker government in Syria has been measured, calm, and nothing short of remarkable. The country has a long, complicated path ahead but the first few days of post-Assad Syria give hope for cautious optimism.

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The Syrian opposition reaches Homs and weekend long reads

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. One big story to watch this weekend is what happens Syria.

Syrian government forces quickly retreated from the city of Hama on Thursday, allowing the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led opposition to quickly take the city. Alawites were seen fleeing the city in advance of the rebels but many others seemed to welcome the rebels. As of Friday morning ET, the opposition forces are now close to the nearby city of Homs, which is the last city between their north base and the capital, Damascus. [BBC Live Tracker]

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings and headlines plus some weekend long reads

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

Just the ratings and headlines today as I digest Thursday’s feast. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom for the long reads.

Black Friday Sale Gift

It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much.

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Fri, 22 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Africa round up plus the ICC issues arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday.

Two headlines of note.

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. The ICC warrants accuse Netanyahu and Gallant of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Deif is also accused of crimes against humanity in connection with his role in the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel. Deif is reported to have been killed in July but the ICC maintains that it cannot verify that. Similar warrants against Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar were dropped after their deaths. [SOURCE - Washington Post]

Decis SITREP: Africa Focus

Thu, 14 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP for Nov 14 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Intro

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$68.76

💵 **USD:EUR **

$1.051 (Price of 1EUR in USD)

₿ Bitcoin

$91,208.50

As at Nov 14, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇼 Botswana, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇺 Mauritius, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe