Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts, Trump Sets August Tariff Start Andrew Sheves Good morning. Happy Birthday America 🇺🇸 🇺🇦** Ukraine Faces Record Strikes, US Weapon Cuts** Russia launched a record 550 drones and 11 missiles against Ukraine overnight, with 72 penetrating air defenses and hitting almost every district of Kyiv, killing at least one woman and wounding 23 people just hours after a “disappointing” call between Trump and Putin. More - BBC ...
US-China Trade Deal Andrew Sheves Good morning. It’s a slimmed-down SITREP today from the woods of North Carolina so just the regional summary and one story of note. Normal service will resume on Monday. US China Trade Deal Finalized The US and China signed a trade understanding two days ago that codifies terms from Geneva talks, with China committing to deliver rare earth materials in exchange for US lifting export restrictions. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal removes US “countermeasures” on ethane, chip software and jet engines once rare earth shipments begin flowing. Trump plans to finalize trade deals with 10 major partners by his July 9 deadline to reinstate higher tariffs, sorting countries into “proper buckets” based on negotiation outcomes. More - Bloomberg ...
Israel-Iran Latest Events, DRC - Rwanda Peace Draft, Mexico Cleans Up After Hurricane, Andrew Sheves Good morning Latest Developments in the Israel-Iran Conflict (June 19–20, 2025) Direct Military Actions Major Missile Attack on Hospital in Israel: On June 19, Iran launched a significant missile barrage against Israel, with a direct strike on Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva, southern Israel. The attack left the hospital burning and resulted in at least 65 injuries. Overall, Iranian missile attacks since June 13 have killed 24 Israelis and wounded more than 800[1][3]. ...
Israel Strikes Iran, Air India Crash Kills 241, Marines Deploy to LA as US Protests Spread, China Drops Africa Tariffs plus Weekend Diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning and apologies for the delayed SITREP. 🚨** **Operation Rising Lion: Israel’s Strike on Iran **This is the initial briefing from the Decis Analysis engine. **The full Decis analysis and scenario forecasts are here Updated as at 0700ET, June 13 2025 Timeline of Events Early hours of June 13, 2025: Israel launches a large-scale military operation against Iran, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion.” The strikes involve approximately 200 aircraft targeting roughly 100 sites across Iran. The operation is described as an extended campaign and represents the widest direct attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War. ...
Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset, Israel Strikes Beirut Andrew Sheves Good morning. ☪️ عِيد مُبَارَك 🇨🇳** 🇺🇸 Trump-Xi Trade Talks Reset** President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks “shortly” after a 90-minute call that appeared to break an impasse over rare earth minerals and other disputes that had derailed their Geneva agreement. Trump acknowledged the trade relationship had gotten “a little off track” but said they were now “in very good shape,” though he didn’t specify whether China agreed to speed export licenses for critical magnets needed by US companies. The leaders exchanged invitations to visit each other’s countries, but tensions remain over technology controls and Taiwan, with both sides having just 90 days under their Geneva tariff reduction deal to reach a broader agreement. More - Bloomberg ...
Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs, Hamas Rejects Ceasefire Terms Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🧑⚖️ Judges Halt, Reinstate Tariffs A federal appeals court granted Trump a temporary reprieve from a lower court ruling that blocked his sweeping tariffs, but the White House now faces slower, more complex alternatives if the legal challenge ultimately succeeds. The administration could pursue tariffs through Section 232 investigations or other authorities, but these would take months to implement rather than the immediate impact Trump sought through emergency powers. The original ruling would have reduced effective US tariff rates from nearly 27% to below 6%, marking one of Trump’s biggest setbacks as he races to deliver results before midterm elections. More - Bloomberg ...
India Kills Insurgent Leader, US Sanctions Sudan Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇳** India Kills Insurgent Leader** Indian security forces killed the leader of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) group. Nambala Keshava Rao and 26 other rebels were killed in Chhattisgarh state during a gunfight following intelligence tip-offs. This marks the first time in three decades that such a senior CPI (Maoist) commander has been eliminated by government forces, according to Home Minister Amit Shah. The operation is part of India’s massive “Black Forest” military campaign launched last month, aimed at ending the decades-long insurgency by March 2026. More - BBC ...
US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults, Ukraine Peace Talks Sputter Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸** US Raises Concerns as Israel Intensifies Gaza Assaults** US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed concern over Gaza’s humanitarian situation as Israeli airstrikes killed 114 Palestinians on Thursday. The strikes hit homes and tents sheltering displaced families in Khan Younis, with Nasser hospital reporting 56 deaths including women and children. Gaza has been under complete Israeli blockade of all food and humanitarian supplies for 10 weeks, with the UN warning half a million people face starvation. More - BBC ...
India / Pakistan fighting continues, UK trade deal double, and US-China talks this weekend. Plus weekend diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning. (Headlines from me today, not the AI.) 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Fighting between India and Pakistan continues with reports of multiple strikes into both countries, including missile and drone strikes. The situation remains precarious and fast-moving with potential for escalation. Al Jazeera has a live tracker here Graphic: Al Jazeera 🇬🇧 The UK was in a deal-making mood, striking trade deals with India [BBC] and the USA [BBC]. Notably, this was the first deal with President Trump following the imposition of tariffs last month, although the UK has been pursuing a trade deal with the US since Brexit. ...
⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely and Imminent, Turkish Protest Arrests Andrew Sheves Good morning. ⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely, Imminent Warnings are circulating that India plans to attack Pakistan in response to last week’s attack on primarily Indian tourists in Kashmir. The attack by The Resistance Front (TRF), militants believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, left 26 dead [Al Jazeera Report here] India has a wide range of options from surgical strikes to more conventional shows of force and attacks, but there is no indication of where, when, and how they will respond. ...