Africa

Canada Election Summary and the Downside of Trump’s Tariff Vacillations Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇨🇦 Canadians vote on Monday (although a record number have already voted early) and the BBC has a neat summary of how the two parties compare on key issues. Unsurprisingly, both reject President Trump’s idea that Canada become America’s 51st state. 🤷 Bloomberg notes that the significant impact of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff vacillations is global uncertainty for both governments and businesses. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Happy Easter 🐣 Andrew Sheves Good morning. I’m taking a couple of days off for easter weekend, so it will just be the ratings and summaries today and on Monday. Headlines and weekend diversions will return next week. Africa Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇩🇿 Algeria, 🇦🇴 Angola, 🇧🇯 Benin, 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso, 🇧🇮 Burundi, 🇨🇲 Cameroon, 🇨🇫 Central African Republic, 🇹🇩 Chad, 🇰🇲 Comoros, 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic Of The Congo, 🇩🇯 Djibouti, 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea, 🇪🇷 Eritrea, 🇸🇿 Eswatini, 🇪🇹 Ethiopia, 🇬🇦 Gabon, 🇬🇭 Ghana, 🇬🇳 Guinea, 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau, 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast, 🇰🇪 Kenya, 🇱🇷 Liberia, 🇲🇬 Madagascar, 🇲🇼 Malawi, 🇲🇱 Mali, 🇲🇷 Mauritania, 🇲🇦 Morocco, 🇲🇿 Mozambique, 🇳🇪 Niger, 🇳🇬 Nigeria, 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo, 🇷🇼 Rwanda, 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone, 🇸🇴 Somalia, 🇿🇦 South Africa, 🇸🇸 South Sudan, 🇸🇩 Sudan, 🇹🇿 Tanzania, 🇬🇲 The Gambia, 🇹🇬 Togo, 🇺🇬 Uganda, 🇪🇭 Western Sahara, 🇿🇲 Zambia, 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe ...

Gaza Buffer Zones Expand, US Markets Resume Losses Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend. 🇵🇸** Israel Expands Gaza Buffer Zones** Israel will expand its “security zones” in Gaza to include Rafah and surrounding areas, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz during a visit to troops deployed between Rafah and Khan Younis. Katz stated the military is deliberately leaving Gaza “smaller” and “more isolated” to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining hostages, adding that “all of Rafah will be evacuated and turned into a security area.” The UN reports that approximately two-thirds of Gaza is now designated as “no-go” zones or under evacuation orders since Israel resumed its offensive in March, with 390,000 Palestinians displaced once again and humanitarian aid deliveries blocked since March 2. More - BBC ...

US Tariffs Cause Market Drops and Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend. 🔻** Liberation Day Causes Markets to Plunge** US stocks suffered their worst plunge since the pandemic, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% and erasing $2.5 trillion in value as Trump’s new tariffs sparked recession fears. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, with tech giants like Apple (-9%), Tesla, and Nvidia taking heavy hits, while retail and manufacturing stocks plummeted—Nike tumbled 14% and luxury furnishing company RH crashed 40%. Bond traders boosted bets on Fed rate cuts as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%, with analysts warning tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 2 percentage points while pushing inflation to 5%. More - Bloomberg ...

Myanmar Earthquake. New Details on Ukrainian Minerals Deal, Arctic Cooperation Offer and N Korea’s S Andrew Sheves Good morning. Breaking - Massive Earthquake Hits Myanmar A powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar earlier today, causing widespread damage. Strong tremors were felt in neighboring Vietnam and Thailand, and at least one building collapsed in Bangkok. Myanmar is closed to foreign press making reporting difficult but the BBC has a Live Feed here ...

Government Retakes Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Heathrow Closure, Hamas Rockets Target Israel Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇸🇩 Government Forces Retake Presidential Palace in Khartoum Sudanese government forces have retaken the Presidential Palace in Khartoum but the opposition Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still control large parts of the Sudanese capital. [Live coverage - BBC] 🛬 Heathrow Shuts Down After Nearby Fire London Heathrow Airport faces unprecedented closure after a nearby electrical substation fire cut power to the hub, forcing cancellations of over 1,300 flights and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. British Airways alone will see 677 flights impacted, and there are likely to be widespread knock-on travel delays for days. More - Bloomberg ...

Work Still to be Done on Ukraine Peace Deal, US Shutdown Averted and Weekend Diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two stories to help you stay up on top of things. 🇺🇦 US negotiator Steve Witkoff met with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss the Ukraine peace deal last night to discuss the proposed ceasefire deal. Putin reportedly “expressed solidarity” with President Trump’s position but had “voiced a number of questions that need to be answered together… There’s still a lot ahead to be done”. [BBC Live Coverage] ...

Assad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two stories to help you stay up on top of things. 🇸🇾 Assad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces Assad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad’s fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced “coastal shield regiment” led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. More - Al Jazeera ...

SITREP changes and an AI talk this weekend Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines today but a quick announcement on some upcoming changes to the SITREPs. Our mission at Decis is simple: to provide you with a tailored, focused report on what’s relevant to you to help you adapt and respond quickly. And given that we can produce these reports up to 100x faster that the alternatives and customize down to the individual level, I like to think we’re pretty good* at it. ...

Worldwide tariffs on US imports coming April 1 and Car Attack in Germany Deepens Anti-Immigrant Sentiment in Election Run-Up. Andrew Sheves Good morning. Happy Friday and Happy Valentine’s Day. 🚢 President Trump has ordered trade and commerce officials to design a set of reciprocal tariffs for all countries that impose any form of levy on US imports. These include import taxes but also things like value-added tax (VAT) and other point-of-sale taxes. This is a very broad and complex measure where each country would be subject to reciprocal import duties in addition to commodity duties (such as the proposed 25% tax on copper), hugely complicating supply line cost calculations for US businesses. The tariffs are set to come into force on April 1st, leaving time for bargaining, but businesses are advised to begin preparing for interruption and/or increased costs for all imported goods. [More - Bloomberg] ...