Africa

ICC Sanctions and Ukraine’s Rare Earth in Trump’s Sights Andrew Sheves ⚖️ The US has sanctioned the International Criminal Court, levying travel and financial restrictions on senior ICC staff and family members. This follows the court’s charges against Israeli politicians last year in connection with the war in Gaza but at the signing, President Trump said any court member who opened up cases against the US or other allies would be similarly sanctioned. These sanctions originated in Congress last year and the US is not a signatory to the ICC charter but Trump’s move further weakens the Court and reinforces the perception that it is only there to pursue criminals from the Global South. [More - BBC] ...

Storms approach California, Tariff-eve for Canada and Mexico, UNRWA Shuts and DC Airport Disaster Andrew Sheves ☔️ An atmospheric river approaching America’s west coast is expected to cause flooding and landslides. Recent wildfires have destroyed significant numbers of trees and undergrowth, which increases the chances of mudslides and runoffs in these areas. [More - BBC] 🛑 President Trump confirmed his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico beginning February 1 (Saturday). He was less definitive on China, so it is unclear if the proposed 10% tax would be levied on Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg] ...

What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like. Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China. For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs. TikTok may be more of a domestic issue, and perhaps he’s hoping that video-short-addled kids will flock to the GOP in future elections. But a forced divestment — even a short ban — would make Beijing sweat a little. ...

Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected Friday SITREP: Africa Focus **Corrected What a Big Deal with China Might Look Like. Andrew Sheves Apologies but an earlier version of the SITREP went out with some errors in it. Here’s the corrected version. Good morning and Happy Friday. Some thoughts on the US and China. For all of Donald Trump’s railing about China, what he didn’t do this week was highly instructive: he didn’t force through the TikTok divestment or impose tariffs. ...

Israel split by peace deal Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Despite last-minute jitters, Israel and Hamas agreed to final ceasefire terms on Thursday but now the focus shifts to the Israeli cabinet which is currently meeting to vote on the deal [More - Washington Post]. The cabinet’s far-right members are vehemently opposed to the deal, threatening to bring down the government if it is approved.[More - Reuters] Many of their supporters spent Thursday night protesting the agreement, calling it a ‘Hamas victory’. ...

Machado appears in Caracas and Musk seeks to oust Starmer. Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick headlines today. 🇻🇪 Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared at a rally in Caracas on Thursday and was briefly detained by police. Machado has been in hiding since July’s rigged election and appeared a day before President Maduro’s inauguration, planned for today (Friday). Machado and her exiled running mate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia remain highly popular in Venezuela and her quick release indicates that she is still a great threat to Maduro’s government which the US and other countries fail to recognize. [More - Washington Post] ...

US House Speak elections, no apparent links in US terror attacks and dockworker strike talks. Plus, Syria’s interim government starts diplomatic outreach. Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Some headlines to set you up for the weekend. 🚢 US dockworkers held off from striking over Christmas but that deal expires on January 15th. Talks begin next week to avoid a dockworker strike and automation will be a major theme issue to resolve. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Africa summary Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Just the metrics and the regional report today. Need Help Crisis Planning? It’s the end of the year, and everyone is writing their ‘Top Risks of 2025,’ which means we’ll be hearing terms like poly-crisis and permacrisis far too much. The problem is that these terms can be paralyzing: the problems are so big, it’s hard to know where to start. ...

Shutdown looms in DC and US Diplomats in Damascus Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. Two quick updates to kick us off. The US government seems headed for a shutdown as House Republicans scuttled their own stopgap bill on Thursday night. This follows their rejection of a long-negotiated bipartisan spending bill after opposition from Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Government funding runs out at midnight. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] In another positive step in Syria’s transition, US representatives have met with the HTS-led interim government in Syria. [SOURCE - BBC] ...

A Positive Note on Syria and Weekend Long Reads Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Friday. This time last week, I wrote, “Homs will likely fall as quickly as Hama and Aleppo did, likely today or by tomorrow. However, Damascus will be a much tougher fight”. How wrong I was: Damascus fell with very little opposition, if any, and the transition to a caretaker government in Syria has been measured, calm, and nothing short of remarkable. The country has a long, complicated path ahead but the first few days of post-Assad Syria give hope for cautious optimism. ...