All Ratings

Good morning, US-China Talks Enter Second Day US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for nearly six hours in Madrid Sunday, discussing TikTok’s looming deadline, trade issues and national security concerns as diplomacy intensifies between the world’s two largest economies. The talks aim to lay groundwork for a potential Trump-Xi Jinping meeting as soon as October during South Korea’s APEC summit, though veteran negotiator Wendy Cutler warned that “agreeing on deliverables for a possible Trump-Xi summit will not be easy” given China’s growing confidence it holds the upper hand. China launched two new investigations targeting US semiconductor companies just before the talks, including an anti-dumping probe on American analog IC chips, shortly after the US added 23 more Chinese firms to its entity list restricting businesses deemed contrary to national security interests. More - Bloomberg ...

Good morning. Milei Suffers Buenos Aires Landslide Defeat Argentine President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party suffered a resounding defeat in Buenos Aires province, winning only 34% compared to 47% for the center-left Peronist opposition in a vote seen as a bellwether for October’s national midterms. Milei acknowledged the “clear defeat” but vowed no changes to his free-market economic program while promising “deep self-critique,” as investors brace for losses with the peso already sliding above 1,400 per dollar and bonds underperforming emerging-market peers. The libertarian president faced headwinds including a graft scandal involving alleged kickbacks benefiting his sister Karina, stone-throwing incidents during campaigning, and economic contraction for three straight months with formal job losses since January, while barred former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner celebrated from her balcony under house arrest after her corruption conviction. More - Bloomberg ...

Good morning. Suddenly, it’s September. Happy Labor Day to folks in the USA and Happy Independence Day to readers in Uzbekistan Earthquake hits Afghanistan A significant earthquake hit Afghanistan early Monday morning (local). Details are sparse at the time of writing, but the BBC has a live tracker here. Kashmir Floods Kill Dozens At least 40 people died and scores were injured as torrential rains triggered major landslides and flash floods in Indian-administered Kashmir, with Jammu recording its heaviest-ever 24-hour rainfall of 380mm that devastated communities and knocked out telecommunications. Most victims were Hindu pilgrims visiting the popular Vaishno Devi temple in Katra, while floods swept away bridges on the Tawi river and forced evacuation of over 5,000 people as the region’s main land route temporarily shut due to landslides. Environmental experts blamed poor resource management including felling a million trees and construction on floodplains for amplifying threats, with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah criticizing authorities for failing to implement flood mitigation measures since devastating 2014 floods that left residents haunted by memories of apocalyptic destruction. More - Al Jazeera ...

Good morning. As a reminder, it’s just the ratings and news summaries this week while I’m on leave. Global Stability Ratings Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix. Afghanistan is Critically Unstable, Albania is Weak, Algeria is Weak, Andorra is Stable, Angola is Weak, Antigua and Barbuda is Stable, Argentina is Weak, Armenia is Weak, Australia is Stable, Austria is Stable, Azerbaijan is Stable, Bahrain is Weak, Bangladesh is Weak, Barbados is Stable, Belarus is Unstable, Belgium is Stable, Belize is Weak, Benin is Weak, Bhutan is Weak, Bolivia is Unstable, Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak, Botswana is Weak, Brazil is Weak, Brunei is Stable, Bulgaria is Weak, Burkina Faso is Unstable, Burundi is Weak, Cambodia is Weak, Cameroon is Weak, Canada is Stable, Cape Verde is Stable, Central African Republic is Unstable, Chad is Unstable, Chile is Stable, China is Stable, Colombia is Weak, Comoros is Weak, Costa Rica is Stable, Croatia is Stable, Cuba is Weak, Cyprus is Weak, Czech Republic is Stable, Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable, Denmark is Stable, Djibouti is Weak, Dominica is Weak, Dominican Republic is Weak, East Timor is Stable, Ecuador is Weak, Egypt is Weak, El Salvador is Weak, Equatorial Guinea is Unstable, Eritrea is Weak, Estonia is Stable, Eswatini is Weak, Ethiopia is Unstable, Fiji is Stable, Finland is Stable, France is Stable, Gabon is Weak, Georgia is Weak, Germany is Weak, Ghana is Stable, Greece is Weak, Grenada is Stable, Guatemala is Weak, Guinea is Unstable, Guinea-Bissau is Unstable, Guyana is Weak, Haiti is Unstable, Honduras is Unstable, Hungary is Weak, Iceland is Stable, India is Weak, Indonesia is Weak, Iran is Weak, Iraq is Unstable, Ireland is Weak, Israel is Weak, Italy is Weak, Jamaica is Weak, Japan is Stable, Jordan is Weak, Kazakhstan is Weak, Kenya is Weak, Kuwait is Stable, Laos is Weak, Latvia is Stable, Lebanon is Unstable, Libya is Unstable, Liechtenstein is Stable, Lithuania is Stable, Luxembourg is Highly Stable, Malaysia is Stable, Mali is Unstable, Malta is Stable, Mexico is Weak, Moldova is Weak, Monaco is Stable, Mongolia is Stable, Morocco is Stable, Mozambique is Unstable, Myanmar is Unstable, Namibia is Stable, Nepal is Weak, Netherlands is Stable, New Zealand is Stable, Nicaragua is Unstable, Niger is Unstable, Nigeria is Unstable, North Korea is Unstable, Norway is Stable, Oman is Stable, Pakistan is Weak, Panama is Stable, Peru is Weak, Philippines is Stable, Poland is Stable, Portugal is Stable, Qatar is Stable, Romania is Stable, Russia is Unstable, Rwanda is Stable, Saudi Arabia is Weak, Senegal is Stable, Serbia is Unstable, Singapore is Stable, Slovakia is Stable, Slovenia is Stable, Somalia is Unstable, South Africa is Weak, South Korea is Stable, South Sudan is Critically Unstable, Spain is Weak, Sri Lanka is Weak, Sudan is Unstable, Sweden is Stable, Switzerland is Stable, Syria is Critically Unstable, Taiwan is Stable, Tanzania is Stable, Thailand is Weak, Turkey is Weak, Ukraine is Unstable, United Arab Emirates is Stable, United Kingdom is Stable, United States Of America is Stable, Uruguay is Stable, Uzbekistan is Stable, Venezuela is Unstable, Vietnam is Stable, Yemen is Critically Unstable, Zambia is Stable, Zimbabwe is Weak ...

Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit, Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal, Pakistan Floods Kill 337 Good morning. 🇺🇦 Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit Ukrainian President Zelensky faces an “impossible bind” ahead of Monday’s Washington talks with Trump: risk the US president’s wrath or accept territorial concessions for vague security guarantees that could enable Russia’s return in years to come. After Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin bypassed ceasefire demands and embraced “land swaps,” Zelensky must navigate memories of February’s bitter White House exchange that briefly halted military aid while seeking clarity on security guarantees and trilateral meeting timing. Trump’s special envoy suggested the US could offer “Article 5-like language” to Ukraine, but details remain unclear as Zelensky reaffirmed he won’t “give up territory or trade land” despite softening Ukrainian public support and mounting casualties from intensified Russian attacks. More - Bloomberg ...

NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory ‘On Table’, Four Al Jazeera Journalists Killed by IDF, Uganda Denies Besigye Bail in Treason Case Good morning. 🇺🇦 NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory ‘On Table’ NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska may open negotiations about Ukrainian territory, suggesting Ukraine could acknowledge Russia’s de facto control without formal sovereignty recognition. Rutte’s comments come as European leaders conduct “frenetic rounds” of virtual meetings to devise strategy before Friday’s summit, fearing Ukraine could be pressured into accepting significant territorial losses. Vice President JD Vance expects a “very simple” outcome based on current battle lines, while Zelensky maintains Ukraine “won’t - and constitutionally can’t - cede territory,” warning against accepting Putin’s “spin” on negotiations as European officials reaffirm that “international borders must not be changed by force.” More - Bloomberg ...

OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger, Colombian Ex-President Uribe SentencedEl Salvador Scraps Term Limits Good morning. 🛢️OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger OPEC+ completed a two-year oil strategy chapter by approving a final 547,000 barrel-per-day production increase, reversing massive 2023 supply cuts one year ahead of schedule to reclaim market share. The group left traders uncertain about another 1.66 million barrels daily that remain offline until 2026, with delegates saying “all options remain on the table” including further increases, pausing, or even reversing recent policy. With oil futures down 6.7% this year near $70 and forecasters predicting a slide toward $60, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ will likely pause output increases as global markets face a projected 2 million barrel-per-day surplus in Q4. More - Bloomberg ...

Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇹🇼** Taiwan Recall Election Fails, Boosts China** All 24 Kuomintang lawmakers survived recall elections in Taiwan, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party and preserving the opposition’s 62-51 legislative majority that blocks defense spending increases. The landslide defeat hands Beijing new ammunition to claim Lai lacks popular support, with China’s Taiwan Affairs Office saying the results show the DPP’s “political manipulation” lacks backing. Analysts warn the outcome may embolden Beijing’s pressure campaign while removing incentives for opposition lawmakers to moderate positions on military spending that Trump has demanded Taiwan increase for US protection. More - Bloomberg ...

EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan, Bedouins Threaten to Resume Syria Fighting, Iran Holds Nuclear Talks Friday Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇪🇺** EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan** EU envoys will meet this week to formulate measures responding to a possible no-deal scenario with Trump, whose tariff position has hardened ahead of the August 1 deadline. The US now wants near-universal tariffs above 10% on EU goods with fewer exemptions, up from the bloc’s hoped-for framework, as negotiations continue with limited progress. The EU has prepared €21 billion in immediate countermeasures targeting politically sensitive US states and an additional €72 billion list including Boeing aircraft, US cars and bourbon whiskey, while considering activating its anti-coercion instrument that could impose new taxes on US tech giants. More - Bloomberg ...

EU Tariff Cooperation Plans, Gaza Children Killed in Water Queue, Trump Promises Ukraine Patriots, Former Nigerian President Buhari Dies Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇪🇺** EU Plans Increased Cooperation With Tariff-Hit Nations** The EU is preparing to step up engagement with other countries hit by Trump’s tariffs, including potential coordination with Canada and Japan, as talks with the US remain stuck on cars and agriculture. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen extended suspension of €21 billion in countermeasures until August 1, while preparing €72 billion in additional penalties if negotiations fail. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump’s proposed 30% EU tariff would lower eurozone GDP by 1.2% through 2026, as the bloc seeks deals capped at 10% on agricultural exports while focusing talks on automotive tariffs. More - Bloomberg ...