All Ratings on Andrew Sheves

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning,

US-China Talks Enter Second Day

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for nearly six hours in Madrid Sunday, discussing TikTok’s looming deadline, trade issues and national security concerns as diplomacy intensifies between the world’s two largest economies. The talks aim to lay groundwork for a potential Trump-Xi Jinping meeting as soon as October during South Korea’s APEC summit, though veteran negotiator Wendy Cutler warned that “agreeing on deliverables for a possible Trump-Xi summit will not be easy” given China’s growing confidence it holds the upper hand. China launched two new investigations targeting US semiconductor companies just before the talks, including an anti-dumping probe on American analog IC chips, shortly after the US added 23 more Chinese firms to its entity list restricting businesses deemed contrary to national security interests. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Milei Suffers Buenos Aires Landslide Defeat

Argentine President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party suffered a resounding defeat in Buenos Aires province, winning only 34% compared to 47% for the center-left Peronist opposition in a vote seen as a bellwether for October’s national midterms. Milei acknowledged the “clear defeat” but vowed no changes to his free-market economic program while promising “deep self-critique,” as investors brace for losses with the peso already sliding above 1,400 per dollar and bonds underperforming emerging-market peers. The libertarian president faced headwinds including a graft scandal involving alleged kickbacks benefiting his sister Karina, stone-throwing incidents during campaigning, and economic contraction for three straight months with formal job losses since January, while barred former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner celebrated from her balcony under house arrest after her corruption conviction. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Suddenly, it’s September. Happy Labor Day to folks in the USA and Happy Independence Day to readers in Uzbekistan

Earthquake hits Afghanistan

A significant earthquake hit Afghanistan early Monday morning (local). Details are sparse at the time of writing, but the BBC has a live tracker here.

Kashmir Floods Kill Dozens

At least 40 people died and scores were injured as torrential rains triggered major landslides and flash floods in Indian-administered Kashmir, with Jammu recording its heaviest-ever 24-hour rainfall of 380mm that devastated communities and knocked out telecommunications. Most victims were Hindu pilgrims visiting the popular Vaishno Devi temple in Katra, while floods swept away bridges on the Tawi river and forced evacuation of over 5,000 people as the region’s main land route temporarily shut due to landslides. Environmental experts blamed poor resource management including felling a million trees and construction on floodplains for amplifying threats, with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah criticizing authorities for failing to implement flood mitigation measures since devastating 2014 floods that left residents haunted by memories of apocalyptic destruction. More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

As a reminder, it’s just the ratings and news summaries this week while I’m on leave.

Global Stability Ratings

Reminder: these ratings are generated by the Decis analysis engine, based on events in that location and how these correlate to the Decis stability matrix.

Afghanistan is Critically Unstable, Albania is Weak, Algeria is Weak, Andorra is Stable, Angola is Weak, Antigua and Barbuda is Stable, Argentina is Weak, Armenia is Weak, Australia is Stable, Austria is Stable, Azerbaijan is Stable, Bahrain is Weak, Bangladesh is Weak, Barbados is Stable, Belarus is Unstable, Belgium is Stable, Belize is Weak, Benin is Weak, Bhutan is Weak, Bolivia is Unstable, Bosnia And Herzegovina is Weak, Botswana is Weak, Brazil is Weak, Brunei is Stable, Bulgaria is Weak, Burkina Faso is Unstable, Burundi is Weak, Cambodia is Weak, Cameroon is Weak, Canada is Stable, Cape Verde is Stable, Central African Republic is Unstable, Chad is Unstable, Chile is Stable, China is Stable, Colombia is Weak, Comoros is Weak, Costa Rica is Stable, Croatia is Stable, Cuba is Weak, Cyprus is Weak, Czech Republic is Stable, Democratic Republic Of The Congo is Unstable, Denmark is Stable, Djibouti is Weak, Dominica is Weak, Dominican Republic is Weak, East Timor is Stable, Ecuador is Weak, Egypt is Weak, El Salvador is Weak, Equatorial Guinea is Unstable, Eritrea is Weak, Estonia is Stable, Eswatini is Weak, Ethiopia is Unstable, Fiji is Stable, Finland is Stable, France is Stable, Gabon is Weak, Georgia is Weak, Germany is Weak, Ghana is Stable, Greece is Weak, Grenada is Stable, Guatemala is Weak, Guinea is Unstable, Guinea-Bissau is Unstable, Guyana is Weak, Haiti is Unstable, Honduras is Unstable, Hungary is Weak, Iceland is Stable, India is Weak, Indonesia is Weak, Iran is Weak, Iraq is Unstable, Ireland is Weak, Israel is Weak, Italy is Weak, Jamaica is Weak, Japan is Stable, Jordan is Weak, Kazakhstan is Weak, Kenya is Weak, Kuwait is Stable, Laos is Weak, Latvia is Stable, Lebanon is Unstable, Libya is Unstable, Liechtenstein is Stable, Lithuania is Stable, Luxembourg is Highly Stable, Malaysia is Stable, Mali is Unstable, Malta is Stable, Mexico is Weak, Moldova is Weak, Monaco is Stable, Mongolia is Stable, Morocco is Stable, Mozambique is Unstable, Myanmar is Unstable, Namibia is Stable, Nepal is Weak, Netherlands is Stable, New Zealand is Stable, Nicaragua is Unstable, Niger is Unstable, Nigeria is Unstable, North Korea is Unstable, Norway is Stable, Oman is Stable, Pakistan is Weak, Panama is Stable, Peru is Weak, Philippines is Stable, Poland is Stable, Portugal is Stable, Qatar is Stable, Romania is Stable, Russia is Unstable, Rwanda is Stable, Saudi Arabia is Weak, Senegal is Stable, Serbia is Unstable, Singapore is Stable, Slovakia is Stable, Slovenia is Stable, Somalia is Unstable, South Africa is Weak, South Korea is Stable, South Sudan is Critically Unstable, Spain is Weak, Sri Lanka is Weak, Sudan is Unstable, Sweden is Stable, Switzerland is Stable, Syria is Critically Unstable, Taiwan is Stable, Tanzania is Stable, Thailand is Weak, Turkey is Weak, Ukraine is Unstable, United Arab Emirates is Stable, United Kingdom is Stable, United States Of America is Stable, Uruguay is Stable, Uzbekistan is Stable, Venezuela is Unstable, Vietnam is Stable, Yemen is Critically Unstable, Zambia is Stable, Zimbabwe is Weak

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit, Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal, Pakistan Floods Kill 337

Good morning.

🇺🇦 Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit

Ukrainian President Zelensky faces an “impossible bind” ahead of Monday’s Washington talks with Trump: risk the US president’s wrath or accept territorial concessions for vague security guarantees that could enable Russia’s return in years to come. After Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin bypassed ceasefire demands and embraced “land swaps,” Zelensky must navigate memories of February’s bitter White House exchange that briefly halted military aid while seeking clarity on security guarantees and trilateral meeting timing. Trump’s special envoy suggested the US could offer “Article 5-like language” to Ukraine, but details remain unclear as Zelensky reaffirmed he won’t “give up territory or trade land” despite softening Ukrainian public support and mounting casualties from intensified Russian attacks. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory ‘On Table’, Four Al Jazeera Journalists Killed by IDF, Uganda Denies Besigye Bail in Treason Case

Good morning.

🇺🇦 NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory ‘On Table’

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska may open negotiations about Ukrainian territory, suggesting Ukraine could acknowledge Russia’s de facto control without formal sovereignty recognition. Rutte’s comments come as European leaders conduct “frenetic rounds” of virtual meetings to devise strategy before Friday’s summit, fearing Ukraine could be pressured into accepting significant territorial losses. Vice President JD Vance expects a “very simple” outcome based on current battle lines, while Zelensky maintains Ukraine “won’t - and constitutionally can’t - cede territory,” warning against accepting Putin’s “spin” on negotiations as European officials reaffirm that “international borders must not be changed by force.” More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger, Colombian Ex-President Uribe SentencedEl Salvador Scraps Term Limits

Good morning.

🛢️OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger

OPEC+ completed a two-year oil strategy chapter by approving a final 547,000 barrel-per-day production increase, reversing massive 2023 supply cuts one year ahead of schedule to reclaim market share. The group left traders uncertain about another 1.66 million barrels daily that remain offline until 2026, with delegates saying “all options remain on the table” including further increases, pausing, or even reversing recent policy. With oil futures down 6.7% this year near $70 and forecasters predicting a slide toward $60, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ will likely pause output increases as global markets face a projected 2 million barrel-per-day surplus in Q4. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇹🇼** Taiwan Recall Election Fails, Boosts China**

All 24 Kuomintang lawmakers survived recall elections in Taiwan, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party and preserving the opposition’s 62-51 legislative majority that blocks defense spending increases. The landslide defeat hands Beijing new ammunition to claim Lai lacks popular support, with China’s Taiwan Affairs Office saying the results show the DPP’s “political manipulation” lacks backing. Analysts warn the outcome may embolden Beijing’s pressure campaign while removing incentives for opposition lawmakers to moderate positions on military spending that Trump has demanded Taiwan increase for US protection. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan, Bedouins Threaten to Resume Syria Fighting, Iran Holds Nuclear Talks Friday

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇪🇺** EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan**

EU envoys will meet this week to formulate measures responding to a possible no-deal scenario with Trump, whose tariff position has hardened ahead of the August 1 deadline. The US now wants near-universal tariffs above 10% on EU goods with fewer exemptions, up from the bloc’s hoped-for framework, as negotiations continue with limited progress. The EU has prepared €21 billion in immediate countermeasures targeting politically sensitive US states and an additional €72 billion list including Boeing aircraft, US cars and bourbon whiskey, while considering activating its anti-coercion instrument that could impose new taxes on US tech giants. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

EU Tariff Cooperation Plans, Gaza Children Killed in Water Queue, Trump Promises Ukraine Patriots, Former Nigerian President Buhari Dies

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇪🇺** EU Plans Increased Cooperation With Tariff-Hit Nations**

The EU is preparing to step up engagement with other countries hit by Trump’s tariffs, including potential coordination with Canada and Japan, as talks with the US remain stuck on cars and agriculture. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen extended suspension of €21 billion in countermeasures until August 1, while preparing €72 billion in additional penalties if negotiations fail. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump’s proposed 30% EU tariff would lower eurozone GDP by 1.2% through 2026, as the bloc seeks deals capped at 10% on agricultural exports while focusing talks on automotive tariffs. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Red Sea Attack, Russia Recognizes Taliban Government

Andrew Sheves 🚢** Red Sea Attack**

A commercial vessel in the Red Sea came under attack from small boats firing rocket-propelled grenades and automatic weapons, forcing the crew to abandon the burning ship as it took on water. The Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier Magic Seas was struck by four unmanned surface vehicles 94km southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah port in an attack matching the “established Houthi target profile.” The incident threatens to escalate Red Sea tensions at a sensitive moment as Gaza ceasefire talks continue and Iran considers restarting nuclear negotiations. More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel’s Gaza Campaign Grinds On

Andrew Sheves Comment - I haven’t included an update on Gaza every day, but the summary below is sadly not unusual. Between 50 and 100 people are being killed daily, and many more are injured in the ongoing campaign. Meanwhile, a grotesque real-life Hunger Games is taking place, requiring people to run a ‘free fire’ gauntlet to reach food distribution sites.

Peace talks are ongoing, but the gulf between the parties remains significant and the desire to genuinely reach a deal is questionable.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Conflict Update, Syria Church Bombing Kills 22, Niger Army Base Attacked

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Update**

Yesterday’s revised analysis following the US strikes is here

Key Military Developments

US Airstrikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites:

The United States conducted overnight strikes on June 22 targeting three key Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. The attacks used B-2 stealth bombers equipped with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles1 2 3.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Operation Rising Lion Update, G7 Meeting in Canada

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

Here’s a summary of the latest Decis assessment of Israel’s Operation ‘Rising Lion’ against Iran. The full assessment will be published here at 07:30ET

Overview of the Conflict

The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated dramatically since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 12–13, 2025. The operation began with a surprise Israeli airstrike aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, targeting both military and nuclear infrastructure. In response, Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction on both sides.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 09 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions, Trump Travel Ban Expands as LA Riots Escalate, Kampala Suicide Bombing, Colombian Presidential Candidate Shot

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

Five stories to help you catch up after the weekend.

🇹🇭** 🇰🇭 Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions**

Thailand and Cambodia will return forces to previously agreed positions after a May 28 firefight killed a Cambodian soldier along their disputed border. Thailand has taken control of all 17 border crossings and shortened operating hours at 10, citing threats to sovereignty. Cambodia seeks International Court resolution while Thailand prefers bilateral talks, leaving fundamental disagreements unresolved. More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability, Poland Elects Nationalist President

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

🇺🇦** Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability**

Ukraine launched its largest long-range attack of the war, using 117 drones in a “Spider’s Web” operation that struck at least 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases — 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers — including facilities thousands of miles from Ukraine in Siberia. The SBU security service spent 18 months planning the complex operation, smuggling drones in wooden cabins on trucks and remotely launching them near Russian airbases, causing an estimated $7 billion in damage to strategic aviation assets. The strikes occurred as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators prepared for peace talks in Istanbul, though expectations remain low given the sides’ fundamental disagreements on ending the conflict. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 26 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

🇺🇸 Memorial Day Ratings

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

🇺🇸 Veterans, thank you for your service.

No headlines today, just the ratings.

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Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 19 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Romanian, Portuguese, and Polish Elections, US Credit Downgrade, Gaza Assault Intensifies

Andrew Sheves Good morning,

🗳️ Romania, Portugal, and Poland went to the polls this weekend:

🇷🇴 Liberal and pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan won Romania’s presidential race. [More - BBC]

🇵🇹 The incumbent right-of-centre Democratic Alliance party won in Portugal’s elections, but failed to secure a majority. [More - BBC]

🇵🇱 Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly won Sunday’s vote, but a run-off will be required to determine Poland’s next president [More - BBC]

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 12 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India - Pakistan Ceasefire, PKK Disarms, US & China Cut Tariffs

Andrew Sheves Good morning

🇮🇳** 🇵🇰 India - Pakistan Ceasefire Holds, Talks Planned**

India and Pakistan’s US-brokered ceasefire appears to be holding after four days of intense cross-border shelling and aerial attacks that threatened to escalate into full-scale war. India has reopened 32 civilian airports previously closed due to safety concerns, while both nuclear-armed nations claim military victory despite dozens of casualties. Top military officials from both sides are meeting Monday to discuss ceasefire details, with both countries maintaining vigilance and warning against violations. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 05 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Nationalist Candidate Leads in Romania, Israel Calls Up Reservists, Kidnapped Peruvian Miners Killed, Albanese Wins Re-election

Andrew Sheves Good morning

🇷🇴** Nationalist Candidate Leads Romanian Election**

Nationalist George Simion secured 40% in Romania’s presidential election first round, outpacing liberal Nicusor Dan and coalition candidate Crin Antonescu at 21% each. The election rerun follows annulment of previous results over fraud allegations. Despite denying pro-Russian sympathies, Simion’s potential presidency raises concerns about Romania’s strategic NATO role and Ukraine support. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Deadly Attack in Canada on Election Eve, China Seizes Disputed Atoll, Iran Port Blast and Israeli Strikes in Beirut

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

🇨🇦** Deadly Attack in Canada Upsets Final Day of Campaigning**

Canada’s federal election campaign took a somber turn as party leaders responded to a deadly incident where an SUV rammed into a Filipino festival in Vancouver, killing 11 people. Prime Minister Carney cancelled major rallies while continuing smaller events, Conservative Leader Poilievre held a moment of silence before resuming campaign activities, and NDP Leader Singh—who had left the festival minutes before the attack—cancelled multiple events to attend a Filipino mass. More - CBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ratings rundown

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

It’s just the ratings today but the full report is back tomorrow

🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania is Weak

🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak

🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable

🇦🇴 Angola is Weak

🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable

🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak

🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak

🇦🇺 Australia is Stable

🇦🇹 Austria is Stable

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak

🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak

🇧🇩 Bangladesh is Weak

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

New President in Gabon, 30+ Killed in Russian Missile Strike in Ukraine and Israel Hits Gaza’s Last Hospital.

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

🇬🇦 Gabon Coup Leader Wins Presidency

General Brice Oligui Nguema has won Gabon’s presidential election with an overwhelming 90.4% of votes, solidifying his grip on power nearly two years after overthrowing his cousin Ali Bongo. Campaigning on promises to reduce youth unemployment through economic diversification beyond oil dependency, Nguema has pledged to grow GDP by 7% annually while adding domestic value to the country’s natural resources. Despite his promises to attract foreign investment, Nguema has taken steps to increase state control over the economy, including using preemptive rights to block the sale of Assala Energy and taking controlling stakes in timber operations. Investors remain concerned about Gabon’s widening budget deficit, which the IMF expects to reach 6.5% of GDP this year with public debt climbing to 80% of GDP. More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

⤵️ Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns

Global markets tumbled Monday as the Trump administration doubled down on its tariff strategy despite the $5.4 trillion selloff last week. Asian shares fell as much as 7.9%, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunging over 10% and Taiwan’s index suffering its worst drop on record. President Trump remained defiant, saying “sometimes you have to take medicine” while Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed recession fears and claimed “the market consistently underestimates Donald Trump.” Trump’s economic team insisted the tariffs will make America “wealthy like never before” despite warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Powell about higher inflation and economists predicting a recession. Even Trump supporter Bill Ackman criticized the policy, warning “the president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe.” More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Eid Attacks in Gaza, Over 1,700 Feared Dead in Myanmar Leading to Calls for Ceasefire

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Sadly, some grim headlines to start the week.

🇵🇸** Gaza Eid Attacks**

Israeli airstrikes killed at least 35 Palestinians during Eid al-Fitr celebrations in Rafah and Khan Younis as Netanyahu maintained demands for Hamas to disarm and leave Gaza. The Palestine Red Crescent recovered 15 medical workers’ bodies following an Israeli attack, while humanitarian conditions deteriorate with aid deliveries halted since early March and ceasefire prospects appearing remote. More - Al Jazeera

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability Ratings, Protests in Turkey, Canada’s Election set for April 28, and External and Internal Tensions In Israel

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Three headlines to help you catch up quickly.

🇹🇷 ** Anti-Government Protests Sweep Turkey**

There were enormous protests across Turkey all weekend following last week’s arrest of Istanbul’s Mayopr and prominent opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu. The charges are viewed by many as fabricated, with the main aim of preventing Imamoglu — a popular leader — from participating in upcoming elections. [More - AlJazeera]

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings, anti-government protests in Belgrade, Yemen Strikes and Mass Deportations from USA

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Three headlines from the weekend.

🇷🇸 Huge Anti-Government Protests in Belgrade

Serbia witnessed its largest-ever protest as up to 325,000 people rallied in Belgrade against the government following a railway station collapse that killed 15 people last November. The massive demonstration, organized as “15th for 15,” brought together students, taxi drivers, farmers, and military veterans demanding accountability for the disaster at Novi Sad station, which many blame on corruption during renovation work personally inaugurated by President Aleksandar Vucic. Despite multiple resignations including the Prime Minister’s, protesters insist none of their demands for transparency and justice have been fully met. More - BBC

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Mon, 10 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Three headlines from the weekend. (A summary of all of last week’s big stories is the in audio summary below.)

🇨🇦 Carney Elected as Canadian Prime Minister

Former central banker Mark Carney won the Liberal Party leadership race with 85.9% of the vote and will become Canada’s prime minister within days amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The incoming leader faces immediate challenges from Trump’s chaotic tariff policies, including imminent 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports and threats against Canadian lumber and dairy products. Carney, who positioned himself as an experienced crisis manager, pledged to find new export markets and scrap planned capital gains tax increases while warning “no way” to Trump’s suggestion of making Canada “the 51st state.” More - Bloomberg

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

Here are this week’s stability ratings and the audio review of last week’s stories.

Reminder: this audio is an AI-summary of last week’s reports. AI can make mistakes — particularly in the subtleties of International relations — so please review any situation carefully before you make major decisions.

**Want to include these ratings in your own system? **

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Andrew Sheves ** In partnership with **

](https://magic.beehiiv.com/v1/4d03390d-2481-4299-b949-ffd8b38b4c38?email={{email}}&utm_campaign=XO7DWEQZLV&redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fsubscribe.therundown.ai%2F%3Fform%3Dopen&redirect_delay=1&_gl=11qqix25_gcl_auMTYwNDc0Mjg2OC4xNzI5NTMyNjYw_gaMTk2YzU4MDctZGFlZi00MjQ3LWIzZDYtYTQ1MTUwMmJiZTQ0_ga_E6Y4WLQ2EC*MTczMjUxMTg2Ny4yNTkzLjEuMTczMjUxMzM4My42MC4wLjE4NTk3NDE3MTE.&bhiiv=opp_fba53f81-2740-4c36-96fe-60e793d15369_e4221c46&bhcl_id=14f77182-d5a5-40e8-8698-8ce5dd413558_SUBSCRIBER_ID{{email_address_id}}) Happy Monday.

As I mentioned on Friday, I’m switching the SITREP format and will be trying a couple of different schedules over the next few weeks.

Mondays will always be the complete stability ratings overview but today I’m also including an audio brief summarizing last week’s news. This gives you a quick overview of the main events from the last seven days to prep you for the week ahead.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 17 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

M23 expands in Congo and European Leaders Convene Emergency Security Talks

Andrew Sheves Happy Monday.

🇨🇩 M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the second largest city in eastern Congo, strengthening their hold on the region. Mediation talks sponsored by the African Union are ongoing but making little progress. [More - BBC]

🇪🇺 European leaders are convening an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss European Security. These talks follow last week’s comments from US officials and President Trump announcing that he was unilaterally staring peace talks on Ukraine with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. [More - Politico]

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.

Prepare for More Trade Uncertainty

Last week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains.

Meanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [More Bloomberg] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [More - Politico]

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tariffs All the Way Down and Musk Targets USAID

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.

Tariffs All the Way Down

It was tariffs all the way down in Washington, Ottowa, and Mexico City this weekend as President Trump’s 25% import taxes kicked in, spurring retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico.

Meanwhile, in addition to attacking close allies, 10% tariffs were also levied against Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg]

According to some report, in addition to the tarrifs, de minimus entries and duty drawback rules concerning Chinese imports are being suspended. De minimus rules allow small packages from China to enter the US without duty being paid - this is what the entire dropshipping industry, fast fashion, and half of Amazon stores rely on. So imports to the US are interrupted or more expensive.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 20 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The rules for Trump 2.0

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday.

Allow me an observation on the cusp of the second Trump Presidency

It’s Inauguration Day and DC is full of two kinds of Trump supporters. Billionaires spent the weekend celebrating at black-tie events, anticipating a freer, free market, looser regulation, and a more mercantile approach to everything from lawmaking to foreign policy. Meanwhile, Trump voters who couldn’t stump up millions of dollars in support are tramping around a wet, snowy DC, unable to attend the (now indoors) inauguration.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Syria reconstruction conference, Lebanon’s new President gets to work, Gaza peace talks, and North Korean troops captured in Ukraine. Plus flooding in Mayotte and fires continue in Los Angeles.

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Some weekend headlines to prepare you for the week ahead.

🇸🇾 Saudi Arabia hosted regional and European diplomats at a conference to discuss the rebuilding of Syria and the country’s rehabilitation into the global community. Saudi diplomats stressed that easing sanctions and delisting members of the new regime from terrorist suspect lists are key steps to allowing Syria to recover after the 50-year reign of the Assad regime. [More - Politico]

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 06 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine reinforces position in Kursk, US offshore drilling ban, Trudeau to resign and Musk doubles-down on Europe’s hard right.

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the first full week of 2025. Let’s get after it.

🇺🇦 Ukraine began a new offensive into the Russian territory it holds in the Kursk region. Ukraine has held this since August, and reinforcing its hold on Russian ground will strengthen Kyiv’s hand in any upcoming peace talks. [More - Al Jazera]

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Russia admits to downing a civilian airliner, grim end of year conflict statistics and RIP Jimmy Carter

Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the last Monday of 2024.

Some weekend headlines and stories that might have slipped by over the last week.

Russia admitted that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on December 25th was hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire. The Azeri President has accepted that this was an accident, but it highlights the danger for airlines operating near conflict zones, even where there is no official airspace warning in place. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 16 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Headlines from a busy weekend and a big product update

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

It was a busy weekend: here are the headlines.

South Korea’s Parliament voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for his declaration of martial law two weeks ago. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo takes over as acting president while the impeachment process continues. Courts have 180 days to decide Yopon’s fate. [SOURCE - BBC]

Anti-EU candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected president of Georgia, raising fears that the country was being pulled back into Moscow’s orbit. [SOURCE - AP]

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Syria without Assad, Election Rerun in Romania, and Impeachment Fails in Seoul

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

It was a monumental weekend in and for the Middle East as the Assad regime fell after 50 years of brutal rule in Syria. After a startlingly fast and relatively bloodless sweep of the country by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels, HTS is now in charge of Damascus and most of Western and central Syria from the Turkish border to Jordan. I was wrong in my assessment on Friday as I anticipated elements of the regime to put up some kind of resistance, but it seems that the majority of the military either surrendered or melted away, allowing the rebels to take Damascus essentially unopposed.

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 02 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Opposition advances in Syria, protests in Georgia and Romania, and Trudeau reacts to Trump tariff threats

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

There were several major events over the weekend worth keeping track of, but before we get to those, a quick seasonal health warning because this can be the most dangerous time of the year for a lot of organizations.

Wait. Didn’t Andy Williams tell us this was The Most Wonderful Time of the Year?

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 25 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Yemenis in Ukraine, election shock in Romania and Lebanon ceasefire rumors

Andrew Sheves Good morning and Happy Monday.

A quick scheduling note for Thanksgiving week. The Thursday and Friday editions of the SITREP will not include the headlines or market data. Country stability ratings and news summaries will be unchanged.

Weekend Stories of Note

President-elect Trump made several additional nominations to cabinet and senior advisor roles over the weekend. Politico has a handy cabinet tracker here to help keep track of nominees and their positions on key issues.

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

A quick editorial note* - The minute I hit ‘send’ on Friday, I realized that I had the SITREP schedule backward: it’s better to get the complete ratings on a Monday than the country comparisons as part of the regional. I also want to cover any big events that took place over the weekend on a Monday so the schedule going forward will be as follows.*

All Ratings on Andrew Sheves

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

US-China Talks Enter Second Day

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Milei Suffers Buenos Aires Landslide Defeat

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Earthquake hits Afghanistan

Kashmir Floods Kill Dozens

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Global Stability Ratings

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Only Bad Options for Zelensky After Alaska Summit, Huge Israeli Crowds Demand Hostage Deal, Pakistan Floods Kill 337

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

NATO Chief: Ukraine Territory ‘On Table’, Four Al Jazeera Journalists Killed by IDF, Uganda Denies Besigye Bail in Treason Case

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

OPEC+ Ends Strategy Chapter With Cliffhanger, Colombian Ex-President Uribe SentencedEl Salvador Scraps Term Limits

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

EU Prepares Trade Retaliation Plan, Bedouins Threaten to Resume Syria Fighting, Iran Holds Nuclear Talks Friday

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

EU Tariff Cooperation Plans, Gaza Children Killed in Water Queue, Trump Promises Ukraine Patriots, Former Nigerian President Buhari Dies

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Red Sea Attack, Russia Recognizes Taliban Government

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Israel’s Gaza Campaign Grinds On

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Israel-Iran Conflict Update, Syria Church Bombing Kills 22, Niger Army Base Attacked

Key Military Developments

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Operation Rising Lion Update, G7 Meeting in Canada

Overview of the Conflict

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Thai / Cambodian Border Tensions, Trump Travel Ban Expands as LA Riots Escalate, Kampala Suicide Bombing, Colombian Presidential Candidate Shot

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Ukraine Destroys 1/3 of Russia’s Strategic Strike Capability, Poland Elects Nationalist President

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

🇺🇸 Memorial Day Ratings

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Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Romanian, Portuguese, and Polish Elections, US Credit Downgrade, Gaza Assault Intensifies

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

India - Pakistan Ceasefire, PKK Disarms, US & China Cut Tariffs

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Nationalist Candidate Leads in Romania, Israel Calls Up Reservists, Kidnapped Peruvian Miners Killed, Albanese Wins Re-election

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Deadly Attack in Canada on Election Eve, China Seizes Disputed Atoll, Iran Port Blast and Israeli Strikes in Beirut

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Ratings rundown

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

New President in Gabon, 30+ Killed in Russian Missile Strike in Ukraine and Israel Hits Gaza’s Last Hospital.

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Eid Attacks in Gaza, Over 1,700 Feared Dead in Myanmar Leading to Calls for Ceasefire

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings

Stability Ratings, Protests in Turkey, Canada’s Election set for April 28, and External and Internal Tensions In Israel

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Stability ratings, anti-government protests in Belgrade, Yemen Strikes and Mass Deportations from USA

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and 7-Day Audio Summary

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

M23 expands in Congo and European Leaders Convene Emergency Security Talks

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Trade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live

Prepare for More Trade Uncertainty

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Tariffs All the Way Down and Musk Targets USAID

Tariffs All the Way Down

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

The rules for Trump 2.0

Monday SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Syria reconstruction conference, Lebanon’s new President gets to work, Gaza peace talks, and North Korean troops captured in Ukraine. Plus flooding in Mayotte and fires continue in Los Angeles.

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Ukraine reinforces position in Kursk, US offshore drilling ban, Trudeau to resign and Musk doubles-down on Europe’s hard right.

Decis SITREP: Global Ratings and Weekend news

Russia admits to downing a civilian airliner, grim end of year conflict statistics and RIP Jimmy Carter