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M23 expands in Congo and European Leaders Convene Emergency Security Talks Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. 🇨🇩 M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the second largest city in eastern Congo, strengthening their hold on the region. Mediation talks sponsored by the African Union are ongoing but making little progress. [More - BBC] 🇪🇺 European leaders are convening an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss European Security. These talks follow last week’s comments from US officials and President Trump announcing that he was unilaterally staring peace talks on Ukraine with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. [More - Politico] ...

Trade Uncertainty is the New Normal and The API is Live Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Prepare for More Trade Uncertainty Last week’s tariffs were over before they started: by Monday evening, both Mexico and Canada had secured 30-day deferrals on President Trump’s threatened import taxes. However, the short-term disruption was real and this was a deferment — the threat to cross-border trade remains. Meanwhile, Trump intends to announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports today and is threatening reciprocal tariffs on any country that taxes US imports. [More Bloomberg] And in Europe, leaders are dusting off the anti-coercion instrument (ACI): a trade ‘bazooka’ they devised back in Trump’s first term as a way to hit back at any US levies on EU imports. [More - Politico] ...

Tariffs All the Way Down and Musk Targets USAID Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Tariffs All the Way Down It was tariffs all the way down in Washington, Ottowa, and Mexico City this weekend as President Trump’s 25% import taxes kicked in, spurring retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, in addition to attacking close allies, 10% tariffs were also levied against Chinese imports. [More - Bloomberg] According to some report, in addition to the tarrifs, de minimus entries and duty drawback rules concerning Chinese imports are being suspended. De minimus rules allow small packages from China to enter the US without duty being paid - this is what the entire dropshipping industry, fast fashion, and half of Amazon stores rely on. So imports to the US are interrupted or more expensive. ...

The rules for Trump 2.0 Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Allow me an observation on the cusp of the second Trump Presidency It’s Inauguration Day and DC is full of two kinds of Trump supporters. Billionaires spent the weekend celebrating at black-tie events, anticipating a freer, free market, looser regulation, and a more mercantile approach to everything from lawmaking to foreign policy. Meanwhile, Trump voters who couldn’t stump up millions of dollars in support are tramping around a wet, snowy DC, unable to attend the (now indoors) inauguration. ...

Syria reconstruction conference, Lebanon’s new President gets to work, Gaza peace talks, and North Korean troops captured in Ukraine. Plus flooding in Mayotte and fires continue in Los Angeles. Andrew Sheves Good morning, and Happy Monday. Some weekend headlines to prepare you for the week ahead. 🇸🇾 Saudi Arabia hosted regional and European diplomats at a conference to discuss the rebuilding of Syria and the country’s rehabilitation into the global community. Saudi diplomats stressed that easing sanctions and delisting members of the new regime from terrorist suspect lists are key steps to allowing Syria to recover after the 50-year reign of the Assad regime. [More - Politico] ...

Ukraine reinforces position in Kursk, US offshore drilling ban, Trudeau to resign and Musk doubles-down on Europe’s hard right. Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the first full week of 2025. Let’s get after it. 🇺🇦 Ukraine began a new offensive into the Russian territory it holds in the Kursk region. Ukraine has held this since August, and reinforcing its hold on Russian ground will strengthen Kyiv’s hand in any upcoming peace talks. [More - Al Jazera] ...

Russia admits to downing a civilian airliner, grim end of year conflict statistics and RIP Jimmy Carter Andrew Sheves Good morning, and welcome to the last Monday of 2024. Some weekend headlines and stories that might have slipped by over the last week. Russia admitted that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on December 25th was hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire. The Azeri President has accepted that this was an accident, but it highlights the danger for airlines operating near conflict zones, even where there is no official airspace warning in place. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] ...

Headlines from a busy weekend and a big product update Andrew Sheves Good morning. It was a busy weekend: here are the headlines. South Korea’s Parliament voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for his declaration of martial law two weeks ago. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo takes over as acting president while the impeachment process continues. Courts have 180 days to decide Yopon’s fate. [SOURCE - BBC] Anti-EU candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected president of Georgia, raising fears that the country was being pulled back into Moscow’s orbit. [SOURCE - AP] ...

Syria without Assad, Election Rerun in Romania, and Impeachment Fails in Seoul Andrew Sheves Good morning. It was a monumental weekend in and for the Middle East as the Assad regime fell after 50 years of brutal rule in Syria. After a startlingly fast and relatively bloodless sweep of the country by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels, HTS is now in charge of Damascus and most of Western and central Syria from the Turkish border to Jordan. I was wrong in my assessment on Friday as I anticipated elements of the regime to put up some kind of resistance, but it seems that the majority of the military either surrendered or melted away, allowing the rebels to take Damascus essentially unopposed. ...

Opposition advances in Syria, protests in Georgia and Romania, and Trudeau reacts to Trump tariff threats Andrew Sheves Good morning. There were several major events over the weekend worth keeping track of, but before we get to those, a quick seasonal health warning because this can be the most dangerous time of the year for a lot of organizations. Wait. Didn’t Andy Williams tell us this was The Most Wonderful Time of the Year? ...