Americas

Killing the chickens to frighten the monkeys Andrew Sheves ** In partnership with ** ](https://l.join1440.com/bh?utm_source=beehiiv&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=decis_sitreps_XO7DWEQZLV&utm_content=prospecting_critical_thinkers&_bhiiv=opp_5ec2c2df-c1d8-467d-9427-8e335f9f3f2b_1b75ca79&bhcl_id=f9eba0af-7b0c-4a59-9c3c-6085fb567559_SUBSCRIBER_ID_{{email_address_id}}) Good morning. A commentator on Bloomberg yesterday quoted the proverb “kill the chickens to frighten the monkeys” and explained how Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are actually a signal to China: ’See how tough I can be on my allies. Now imagine what I could do to you.’ Unfortunately, no matter how you make the monkeys feel, you’ve still killed a few chickens. ...

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Apologies for the lack of a SITREP yesterday. The stability ratings are included below. Country Stability Ratings 🇦🇫 Afghanistan is Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania is Weak 🇩🇿 Algeria is Weak 🇦🇩 Andorra is Stable 🇦🇴 Angola is Weak 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda is Stable 🇦🇷 Argentina is Weak 🇦🇲 Armenia is Weak 🇦🇺 Australia is Stable 🇦🇹 Austria is Weak 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan is Weak 🇧🇭 Bahrain is Weak ...

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Trump’s Day One EO Blizzard and Palestinians Return to Ruins in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. Before we cover Monday’s frenetic Day One for the incoming Trump administration, some stark images and statistics illustrate the immense challenge that still lies ahead for the Palestinians. 🇵🇸 There are estimates that 92% of housing in Gaza has been destroyed. So, while the current ceasefire allows families to move back into cleared areas, very few have homes to go to. [More - BBC] ...

Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Tusday SITREP: Americas Focus Peace deal nears in Gaza, Lebanon’s new PM and Trump cabinet picks begin confirmation hearings. Andrew Sheves Good morning. xx 🕊️ Statements from officials in Doha and Washington indicate that a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is close to agreement. Several influential Israeli politicians on the right vehemently oppose a ceasefire and a similar deal has been under discussion since May last year so a breakthrough is not guaranteed. [More - BBC] ...

Trudeau out, M23 increase hold in Goma and earthquake in Tibet. Andrew Sheves Good morning. Three quick headlines 🇨🇦 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down, proroguing (recessing) Canada’s parliament until March 24th while the Liberal party find a new leader. Canada’s conservatives will want to force a general election, and this leaves Trudeau — who will stay on until a replacement is found — as a lame duck in any negotiations with the incoming Trump administration. [More - CBC] ...

German Chancellor condemns Musk’s AfD support, Chinese hackers infiltrate the US Treasury and gang violence in Trinidad and Tobago Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines today. 🇩🇪 The outgoing German chancellor, Olas Scholz, has condemned Elon Musk’s support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, accusing him of election interference. In addition to his support for Donald Trump and the AfD, Musk also supports the UK’s anti-immigration Reform Party. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] ...

New French Cabinet: plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose Andrew Sheves Good morning. Greetings from Aberdeen, Scotland, where we’re enjoying a whopping 6 ½ hours of daylight today…. Two headlines from Europe are worth tracking as a taster of what things will look like in 2025. In France, Prime Minister François Bayrou selected Eric Lombard as finance minister, tasked with finding a budget to satisfy all parties in a divided French parliament. Budget concerns were the stated reason for France’s opposition parties bringing down the previous government, so finding an acceptable solution is key for France’s stability, but the view is that Bayrou / Lombard will not significantly differ from the previous government. [SOURCE - Financial Times] ...

Russian General Assassination, Mass Graves in Syria and Vanuatu Earthquake Andrew Sheves Good morning. Some quick headlines worth tracking. Ukraine assassinated Russian General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. Kirillov was head of the Russian chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons program and a Russian military spokesman. [SOURCE - France24] A large A 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck near Vanuatu’s capital, causing widespread destruction but casualty numbers and the full extent of the damage are still unclear. [[SOURCE - BBC](http://A 7.3 magnitude earthquake has struck near Vanuatu’s capital Port Vila)] ...

Israeli strikes and incursions in Syria as the HTS transition continues Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines from Syria. Israel has conducted over 250 missile strikes around Syria and pushed deeper into the Golan Heights in the last 48 hours, in response to the fall of Bashir al-Assaed and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) takeover. Israel has described the seizure of territory as a temporary security measure, but governments in the region are describing this as an illegal occupation. [SOURCE - al Jazeera] ...

Turbulence in Europe and the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is shaky Andrew Sheves Good morning. There are three big stories worth tracking today, but first, it’s worth pulling a few of these together. Comment The macro trend at the moment is increasing turbulence and weakness across Europe through a confluence of factors: internal political wrangling (France, below), economic difficulties (Germany), Russian hybrid warfare (telecoms sabotage, below), and the seeming undoing of the ‘color revolutions’ as eastern european countries drift back towards Moscow (e.g., Georgia). ...