Analysis

Decis Analysis Dated June 22 2025 Good morning - here’s the latest synthesized analysis of the situation in the Middle East. There’s a separate investment memo available - please email me if you would like a copy. Reminder, this is the initial analysis of a very dynamic situation conducted by AI. See the end of the report for full disclosures. CURRENT SITUATION Here is a detailed update on the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict over the last 24 hours (June 21–22, 2025), based on the most recent credible sources: ...

Analysis: +72 hours Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s Strikes Against Iran[ Decis Updated Assessment - Operation Rising Lion - 0600ET Monday, June 16 2025 Andrew Sheves Updated Assessment on Iranian Response Scenarios as at 0600 ET June 16 Reminder This is a rapidly developing situation and events may have changed since the time of this report. This report and the simulations were conducted using artificial intelligence. These include reasonable assumptions and best attempts to map out how events may unfold but there is significant uncertainty in these assessments. Full disclainers are contained at the end of the report. ...

Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran[ Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran Analysis: Post-Strike Escalation Scenarios and Regional Stability Assessment Following Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Against Iran Decis Initial Assessment Dated 07:00ET Friday, June 13 2025 Andrew Sheves EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Iran will likely execute a calibrated multi-phase response combining direct military action, proxy activation, and accelerated nuclear development. The elimination of senior leadership creates dangerous unpredictability in Iranian decision-making. Regional escalation to broader conflict assessed as HIGH PROBABILITY (65-75%) within 30 days. ...

This is a ‘living’ article which will be updated as progress is made in tests and other research emerges. The original articile was written on Jaunuary 13 2025 and major edits will be dated. There are also demos of this process in action, the latest being the presentation to the Virtual AI Engineer Summit in NY in March 2025. Updates to add Utilize domain-specific heuristics (rules of thumb) for few-shot training ...