Europe on Andrew Sheves

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Hamas Claims Leaders Survived Israeli Strike on Doha HQ

Israel conducted a strike on a Hamas residential compound in Qatar’s capital using 15 fighter jets that fired 10 munitions, resulting in five Hamas deaths including the son of chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. Hamas asserted that its negotiating team discussing Trump’s ceasefire proposal survived the operation.

Netanyahu characterized the strike as “fully justified,” targeting individuals involved in organizing the October 7 attack. Qatar condemned what it called a “cowardly” violation of its sovereignty. The White House stated that bombing a sovereign ally “does not advance Israel or America’s goals,” though it acknowledged eliminating Hamas as “worthy.”

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

11 Killed in US Strike on Venezuelan Boat

President Trump announced a US military “kinetic” strike killed 11 people aboard a small boat accused of smuggling drugs from Venezuela for the Tren de Aragua gang, marking the first known attack against alleged drug smugglers since increased Caribbean military deployment began. Trump shared aerial bombing footage on Truth Social warning “anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States” to “BEWARE,” as seven US warships and a nuclear submarine carry over 4,500 sailors and Marines in the region.

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

Albania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom

More Stable

No countries were more stable over this period

Unchanged

Andorra, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia

Regional News Summary

Switzerland faces economic strain from U.S. trade tensions and tariffs. The nation experienced significant gold export increases in July as firms seek value preservation. Switzerland and Austria have proposed hosting negotiations between Putin and Ukrainian leadership to resolve the ongoing conflict. NATO defense officials are simultaneously evaluating security arrangements for Ukraine through virtual consultations.

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Good morning.

Modi Welcomes China Ties as US Criticism Escalates

Indian Prime Minister Modi welcomed improved China relations and announced his first visit to China in seven years. More - Bloomberg

Israel Rejects Ceasefire Plan: Demands All Hostages Released

Israel is demanding the release of all 50 Gaza hostages rather than accepting a new 60-day ceasefire proposal that Hamas approved. More - BBC

Europe and MENA Stability Ratings and News Summary

Europe More Unstable

Albania, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 13 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Zelensky Rejects Donbas Concession, Iran Arrested 21,000 During Israel War

Good morning.

🇺🇦 Zelensky Rejects Donbas Concession

Ukrainian President Zelensky ruled out ceding the Donbas region to Russia in any peace deal, warning it would create “a bridgehead for Russians to prepare an offensive” ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Zelensky said Ukraine would reject proposals to surrender parts of Donbas despite Russian forces making a sudden 10km advance near Dobropillia, which he claimed was timed to create an “information space” showing “Russia is moving forward while Ukraine is losing.” The Ukrainian leader expressed frustration at being excluded from the Alaska summit, calling the location choice a “personal victory” for Putin who is “coming out of isolation” by meeting on US territory, while warning any agreements without Kyiv’s involvement would be “dead decisions.” More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Russia Considers Air Truce Offer, Reports: Netanyahu Plans Full Gaza Reoccupation, BLS Worries Threaten $2 Trillion Treasuries Market, Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Amid Lebanon Push

Good morning.

🇺🇦 Russia Considers Air Truce Offer

Russia is weighing an air truce with Ukraine as a potential concession to Trump ahead of US envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit this week, though Moscow remains determined to continue the war without a general ceasefire. The proposal could involve pausing drone and missile strikes as a deescalation gesture, provided Ukraine also agrees, as Putin seeks to avoid threatened secondary sanctions while his forces continue battlefield advances. Trump has grown frustrated with Putin’s refusal to agree to ceasefire during six phone calls since February, threatening heavy tariffs on countries buying Russian oil starting Friday, while Belarus President Lukashenko publicly raised the “air truce” concept during recent remarks with Putin. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 30 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum, UK to Recognize Palestine by September, Pacific Tsunami Alert After Russia Quake

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇦** Russia Strikes Ukraine As Trump Restates Ultimatum**

Russian forces killed 25 people in overnight strikes on Ukraine, including 17 inmates when glide bombs hit Bilenke prison and three people at a Kamianske hospital including a 23-year-old pregnant woman named Diana. The attacks come as Trump toughened his truce ultimatum to Russia, reducing the previous 50-day deadline issued to Putin earlier this month during his UK visit. Ukraine’s human rights commissioner called the prison attack a gross violation of humanitarian law, while five more people were killed in Kharkiv region as villagers gathered for humanitarian aid near a local shop that was destroyed by rocket fire. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza, Trump Strikes Trade Deal with Japan, Philippines

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** Starvation Deaths, Malnutrition Increase in Gaza**

At least 15 Palestinians, including four children, starved to death in a single day in Gaza, bringing the total malnutrition deaths since Israel’s war began to 101, with 80 of them children. 600,000 people are estimated to be malnourished as Israel continues to prevent food deliveries into the Strip. UN Secretary-General Guterres called Gaza a “horror show with a level of death and destruction without parallel in recent times,” with nearly 88% of the territory now under Israeli displacement orders or militarized zones, forcing 2.3 million people into ever-shrinking space. More - Al Jazeera

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Bombs Syrian Forces, Philippines AI Disinformation Surge

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇸🇾** Israel Bombs Syrian Forces**

Israel bombed Syrian government forces entering Druze city Suweida after deadly sectarian clashes killed at least 200 people since Sunday, with Prime Minister Netanyahu saying he ordered strikes to prevent their use “against the Druze.” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused government forces of summary executions of 19 Druze civilians and systematic looting after entering the city under a ceasefire agreement. The Trump administration reportedly asked Israel to cease strikes, while Syria condemned Israeli involvement as violations continue despite a declared ceasefire between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation, Tunisia Jails Opposition Leaders

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** Israel Plans Mass Gaza Relocation**

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the military to prepare a plan to move all 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza into a “humanitarian city” built on Rafah’s ruins, initially housing 600,000 people who would not be allowed to leave after security screening. An Israeli human rights lawyer condemned it as “an operational plan for a crime against humanity” involving population transfer in preparation for deportation. Netanyahu endorsed Trump’s proposal for the US to take over post-war Gaza and permanently resettle Palestinians elsewhere, while Arab states have categorically rejected any displacement as “ethnic cleansing.” More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump Won’t Delay Tariff Deadline, Thai PM Suspended, Israel Kills 109 in Gaza While Trump Promises to be ‘Firm’

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇸** Trump Won’t Delay Tariff Deadline**

President Trump ruled out extending his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume, threatening to impose duties on several nations despite ongoing negotiations. So far, only the UK and China have put trade frameworks in place and no deals have been formalized, despite the 90-day delay. Trump criticized Japan, particularly for not accepting US rice exports, and said he would impose 30-35% tariffs due to trade imbalances, calling the country “very spoiled” and doubting a deal will be reached. Markets reacted with the S&P 500 dropping 14 points on the news, while Trump sounded more optimistic about finalizing a trade agreement with India within days. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Conflict Latest, Trump Rejects DIA Iran Strike Assessment, Gaza Aid ‘Death Trap’,

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Admin note: I am traveling for the next few days so the SITREPS will be slimmed down for the remainder of the week.

As a reminder, you can access country reports anytime through your workspace account or via the Chrome extension.

🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 Israel-Iran Conflict Latest**

This will be the last daily summary of the conflict unless the ceasefire breaks down

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Israel-Iran Conflict Lates, Gaza Aid Site Massacre, Indonesia Volcano Alert Raised, Massive Russian Attack on Kyiv

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇱** 🇮🇷 **Israel-Iran Conflict Update: June 17–18, 2025

Overview of the Last 24 Hours

· Escalation of Hostilities: The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with both sides launching new waves of missile and air strikes. Early Wednesday, Iran fired two barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel, while Israel continued its air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, especially around Tehran and Isfahan[1][2][3][4].

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Austrian School Shooting, UK and Allies Sanction Israeli Ministers, Kirchner Banned From Office

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇦🇹** 10 Killed in Austrian School Shooting**

A 21-year-old former student killed 10 people at a Graz secondary school before taking his own life, marking Austria’s deadliest gun attack in recent history. The gunman legally owned the two firearms used and acted alone, with his motive still under investigation. Austria declared three days of national mourning, with Chancellor Christian Stocker calling it a “national tragedy.” More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency, Pakistan Prison Break

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇰🇷** Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidency**

Opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung decisively won South Korea’s presidency exactly six months after predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law attempt triggered massive protests and his impeachment. The victory represents a clear rejection of the ruling People Power Party, which voters blamed for the democratic breakdown, though Lee faces immediate challenges including ongoing Supreme Court charges and navigating a deeply polarized nation. His top priority will be negotiating a trade deal with President Trump to soften US tariff impacts while working to heal divisions in a country where turnout reached 79.4%, the highest since 1997. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 28 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Gaza Aid Distribution Chaos and Ukraine Drone War Escalates

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** Gaza Aid Distribution Chaos**

Thousands of Palestinians stormed a US-Israeli backed aid distribution center in Rafah operated by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, overwhelming security and forcing staff to retreat as crowds climbed fences to seize food parcels. Israeli troops fired warning shots during the chaotic scene, highlighting the desperation of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents facing potential famine after an 11-week blockade. The UN and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the controversial GHF system, calling it a weaponization of humanitarian aid that contradicts core principles of neutrality and independence. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 21 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

UK and EU Review Relations with Israel, US Warns of Israeli Plan to Strike Iran, Mexico City Mayor’s Aides Killed

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇱** UK and EU Review Relations with Israel Over Gaza Siege**

The UK government suspended new free trade negotiations with Israel over its Gaza military conduct while imposing additional sanctions on illegal Israeli settler outposts in the West Bank. Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced the move as the EU also voted to review its trade agreement with Israel due to the “catastrophic” situation in Gaza. Israel quickly denounced the UK’s decision, claiming negotiations weren’t advancing anyway under the current government. More - Al Jazeera

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 14 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump Announces Deals, Lifts Syrian Sanctions on KSA Trip, Mali Dissolves Political Parties

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇸🇦 **Trump Announces KSA Deals, Lifts Syrian Sanctions **

Trump’s Saudi Arabia visit yielded contested investment claims—ranging from $300 billion to $1 trillion—including $142 billion in defense sales and tech sector investments from Google and Oracle. During the Riyadh summit, he also announced lifting sanctions on post-Assad Syria, crediting discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Erdogan while planning to meet new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa despite concerns about his extremist past. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 07 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

India Strikes Pakistan, Houthis to end Red Sea Strikes, Asia’s Hardline Response to Trump Tariffs

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

💥 India Strikes Pakistan

India launched targeted strikes against alleged “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir following a deadly April 22 attack that killed 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan denies involvement and claims 26 civilians were killed in the strikes, while threatening retaliation against what Prime Minister Sharif called a “heinous act of aggression.” UN chief Guterres has called for “maximum restraint” as tensions escalate between the nuclear-armed neighbors. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Carney, Liberals Win in Canada, Gaza Fighting Grinds On

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇨🇦** Carney, Liberals Win in Canada**

Carney’s Liberals won a projected 169 seats, short of the 172 needed for a majority, requiring cooperation with other parties as he navigates US trade tariffs and domestic issues. Meanwhile, the previous favorite, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, lost his Commons seat. Tension with the US remains as the White House controversially commented that the election “does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state,” a scenario Carney told the BBC would “never, ever happen.” More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tourist Attack in Kashmir, Trump Softens Tariff Stance on China and Ukraine Peace Talks Setbacks. Plus, how we’re putting the bots to the test.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇳** 26 Tourists Killed in Kashmir Attack**

Gunmen killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir in the deadliest attack in 25 years. The Resistance Front who claimed the attack are believed to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. The attack, targeting mostly Indian civilians at the “valley of shepherds” tourist destination, threatens to escalate India-Pakistan tensions, with some experts describing it as “an act of war.” More - Al Jazeera

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

New Chinese Trade Negotiator and Israel Increases Pressure on Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇨🇳 China Names New Trade Negotiator Amid Tariff War with US

China has appointed Li Chenggang, former assistant commerce minister and WTO ambassador, to replace veteran negotiator Wang Shouwen as its key trade envoy amid escalating tensions with the United States. The surprise move comes as Beijing faces the impact of Trump’s increased tariffs, which recently jumped from 10% to 145%, with China retaliating by raising duties on US goods to 125%. Despite reporting better-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, Chinese officials warned of economic challenges ahead as the tariffs begin to affect exports. A Chinese official criticized the US approach as “tariff barriers and trade bullying” that “violates economic laws” and “has a serious impact on the world economic order.” More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

UN chief Condemns Gaza Blockade and Dozens Killed in Dominican Republic Nightclub Accident

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇸** UN Chief Condemns Gaza Blockade**

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has denounced Israel’s month-long aid blockade of Gaza, calling the territory “a killing field” where “civilians are in an endless death loop.” Guterres rejected Israel’s proposal to control aid deliveries, stating the UN “will not participate in any arrangement that does not fully respect humanitarian principles.” During a visit to El Arish, French President Emmanuel Macron joined Egypt’s President el-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II in calling for an immediate return to a ceasefire as humanitarian conditions deteriorate for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents. More - Aljazeera

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 02 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan, Liberation Day Arrives but Details Still Shrouded in Secrecy, Chinese FM Visits Moscow

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

We had a great response to yesterday’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. Thanks for all the kind notes. (In case you missed it, the full announcement is here)

Three headlines to start your day.

🇹🇼 China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Black Sea Ceasefire and Anti-Hamas Protests in Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two headlines for you today.

🇺🇦 Black Sea Ceasefire Deal

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea through separate deals with the US after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Russia stipulated the ceasefire would only take effect after sanctions against its food and fertilizer trade are lifted, while Ukraine’s Zelensky called the agreement “a step in the right direction” but warned his country would seek further sanctions if Moscow violates its commitments. Both sides also agreed to develop measures implementing a ban on attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, though accusations of violations emerged shortly after the announcement. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Putin-Trump Fail to Agree Ceasefire and Gaza Offensive Resumes with ‘Full Force’

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Two headlines to start your day

🇺🇦** Trump-Putin Fail to Reach Ceasefire Agreement**

Putin rejected Trump’s requested 30-day Ukraine ceasefire, instead offering only to limit attacks on energy infrastructure while demanding an end to Western weapons transfers. Despite the limited agreement, Trump claimed victory and announced peace negotiations are underway, while Ukraine’s Zelenskiy conditionally accepted the arrangement. European allies remain skeptical, with the UK discussing accelerated arms shipments before any ceasefire takes effect. More - Bloomberg

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Train Siege in Pakistan, EU Hits Back with Tariffs and a Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇵🇰** Train Siege in Pakistan**

Security forces have freed over 100 passengers from a militant train attack in Pakistan’s Balochistan region, killing at least 17 attackers in an ongoing operation. The Baloch Liberation Army seized the Jaffar Express carrying more than 400 passengers, threatening to kill hostages if authorities did not release Baloch political prisoners within 48 hours. Rescue operations continue in the remote Sibi district where the train remains surrounded by mountains. More - BBC

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trade Wars Kick Off and an Alternate Plan for Gaza from the Middle East

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🏴‍☠️ Trade War(s) Kick Off

In response to US tariffs, Canada refused to concede to American pressure and responded with reciprocal measures. China and Mexico have also vowed retaliatory measures to come soon. However, by evening, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs could be lifted as early as Wednesday, deepening confusion. [More - Bloomberg]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Ukraine’s Worst Day Since the Russian Invasion

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇺🇦 Yesterday was the most consequential day for Ukraine since the Russian invasion three years ago. US statements after the talks between the US and Russia did little to push back Russia’s demands that Ukraine cede any territory held by Russia, would not join NATO and that no foreign troops be stationed in the country. But the real damage came at a press conference Tuesday afternoon when President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war, attacked President Zelenskyy personally, and demanded that presidential elections take place as part of any peace deal. Trump and Zelenskyy have had a difficult relationship but this is the most hostile Trump has been towards the Ukrainian leader and this seems to cement Zelenskyy’s exclusion from negotiations. [More - Politico]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 12 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Shell Nigeria Clean Up Criticisms, FCPA Pause and the Slow March Back to Conflict in Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇳🇬 Shell allegedly ignored repeated warnings about corruption and mismanagement in its $1bn oil pollution clean-up operation in Nigeria’s Ogoniland region. Whistleblowers claim that Shell was aware that the clean-up project was awarding contracts to inexperienced companies, falsifying lab results, and inflating costs. The revelations come as Shell faces a High Court trial in London this week, where 50,000 Ogoniland residents seek compensation for oil spills that occurred between 1989 and 2020. [More - BBC]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Shooting in Belgium and Sweden and Trump’s Plan to Occupy Gaza

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇧🇪 Belgian police are looking for two to three gunmen who are on the run in Brussels after a shooting outside a metro station this morning. There were no casualties in the incident at around 06:15 local this morning, but stations were closed, and morning rush hour was disrupted. The men were armed with Klashnokov-style weapons and remain on the loose. [More - BBC]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Crowd surge in India, Trump threatens Taiwan plus the Unintended Consequences of the Transition Kick In

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇮🇳 A crowd surge at a Hindi festival in Northern India raised fears of multiple casualties but early reports are unclear. Up to 100 million people are anticipated at the Kumbh Mela festival in Sangam where devotees gather every 12 years to bathe in the confluence of two sacred rivers [More - BBC]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 22 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Tariff uncertainty, West Bank raids and Troop surge in Columbia.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🧾 Tariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high.

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Yoon arrested in Seoul, mining siege in South Africa and EU considers additional Russian sanctions

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

🇰🇷 Police in South Korea finally arrested ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol in relation to his impeachment in early January following his imposition of martial law in December. Yoon has been avoiding police and refusing to cooperate with the authorities since his removal from power in December.[More - BBC]

🇿🇦 South African police rescued 82 trapped miners and recovered the bodies of 36 more from an illegal mine in Stilfontein, south of Johannesburg. Hundreds more miners remain trapped underground. Mining organizations accuse the police of sealing the miners underground, while the police argue that the miners refuse to leave the mine for fear of arrest. [More - Al Jazeera]

Wednesday SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Trump’s Geopolitical Threats and Wildfire in California

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines from the US today.

🇺🇸 **President-elect Trump held a very wide-ranging press conference Tuesday full of geopolitical threats and declarations **including:

Refusing to rule out using force to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland

Continuing to suggest that Canada should join the US

Promising to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America

How much of this is posturing and how much is sincere remains unclear but it is a reminder of how much geopolitical uncertainty and turbulence will emanate from the incoming administration. [More - Axios]

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Happy New Year!

Andrew Sheves Good morning and a Happy New Year from windy Washington, DC. Wishing you a successful, safe and fulfilling 2025.

Just the numbers and regional info today and tomorrow, but the full SITREP will be back on Friday and next week I’ll be sharing the 2025 look-ahead.

Key Metrics

WTI is $70.38 (Down)

Low |— < —————-| High

Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

Low |—— < ————-| High

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 25 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Happy Chrismukkah 🎅 🕎

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those celebrating.

Just the numbers and regional info today.

Key Metrics

WTI is $71.03 (Down)

Low |—- < —————| High

Wheat is $185.735 (Down)

Low |—— < ————-| High

EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down)

Low | < ——————-| High

YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged)

Low |———- < > ———| High

Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Streamlined version

Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines to share today, let’s get right to the ratings and news.

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$70.52

💵 **USD:EUR **

$1.05

₿ Bitcoin

$104,564

As at Dec 18, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Syria transition continues peacefully and wildfire in CA.

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

The Syrian opposition continues to establish control of the government in coordination with members of the Assad regime, continuing the surprisingly orderly and measured takeover of power. Isreal is continuing to destroy military installations across the country, reportedly hitting almost 500 sites in the last 48 hours. [SOURCE - AL Jazeera]

A significant wildfire, named the Franklin Fire, continues to burn in Malibu County CA, a major suburb of Los Angeles. The suburb is popular with celebrities, and many well-known figures are among those being forced to evacuate. [SOURCE - BBC] [SOURCE - CalFire map]

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Martial law in Seoul and a Clash in the South China Sea

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Citing vague and unspecific concerns about his political opposition, South Korean President Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday. Six hours of chaos and confusion resulted before Parliament and his cabinet forced him to overturn the decree. Yoon now faces impeachment changes that will go to a vote in Seoul’s parliament on Wednesday. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Focus

Wed, 27 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Ceasefire in Lebanon and tension in Pakistan

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

(Reminder: Thursday and Friday’s SITREPS will only contain the stability ratings as we are observing Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day .)

In Pakistan, supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan have been pushed out of central Islamabad by security forces, although they have not fully dispersed and thousands remain in the city. [SOURCE - BBC]

Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, pausing the year-old conflict in Lebanon. [SOURCE - Bloomberg]

Decis SITREP: Europe and Mena Focus

Wed, 20 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

SITREP for Nov 20, 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning.

Three quick headlines.

Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan’s civil war. [SOURCE - BBC] *Note, Sudan remains one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises but seems overshadowed by the wars in Ukraine and the Levant. Read more on the humanitirna situation in Sudan from ReliefWeb. *

The Tunisian opposition leader was badly injured in an acid attack and had been hospitalized. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] The exact motive remains unclear but Tunisia’s opposition has been slowly whittled away since Kais Saied’s unconvincing electoral victory in October.

Decis SITREP: Europe and MENA Roundup

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Decis SITREP for 12 November 2024

Andrew Sheves Good morning. Here’s today’s SITREP covering Europe, The Middle East and North Africa.

Commodity and Rate Snapshot

🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)**

$68.52

💵 **USD:EUR **

$ 1.062*

₿ Bitcoin

$87,015.19

*Price of 1EUR in USD. Values updated ~0600ET Nov 12. Data is illustrative, not for decision-making.

Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage

Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary

More Unstable

🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇪🇪 Estonia, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine