Europe

Shooting in Belgium and Sweden and Trump’s Plan to Occupy Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇧🇪 Belgian police are looking for two to three gunmen who are on the run in Brussels after a shooting outside a metro station this morning. There were no casualties in the incident at around 06:15 local this morning, but stations were closed, and morning rush hour was disrupted. The men were armed with Klashnokov-style weapons and remain on the loose. [More - BBC] ...

Crowd surge in India, Trump threatens Taiwan plus the Unintended Consequences of the Transition Kick In Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇳 A crowd surge at a Hindi festival in Northern India raised fears of multiple casualties but early reports are unclear. Up to 100 million people are anticipated at the Kumbh Mela festival in Sangam where devotees gather every 12 years to bathe in the confluence of two sacred rivers [More - BBC] ...

Tariff uncertainty, West Bank raids and Troop surge in Columbia. Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🧾 Tariffs remain one of the few issues that President Trump has yet to put into effect after a second frenzied day of activity at the White House. In press conferences, Trump said that 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports would begin on February 1st but delays may indicate that there’s hope for some deal before February 1st. Still, there’s no public sign of negotiations, and neither Canada nor Mexico would want to appear weak at the outset of four more years of a Trump White House, so the likelihood of some tariffs seems high. ...

Yoon arrested in Seoul, mining siege in South Africa and EU considers additional Russian sanctions Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇰🇷 Police in South Korea finally arrested ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol in relation to his impeachment in early January following his imposition of martial law in December. Yoon has been avoiding police and refusing to cooperate with the authorities since his removal from power in December.[More - BBC] 🇿🇦 South African police rescued 82 trapped miners and recovered the bodies of 36 more from an illegal mine in Stilfontein, south of Johannesburg. Hundreds more miners remain trapped underground. Mining organizations accuse the police of sealing the miners underground, while the police argue that the miners refuse to leave the mine for fear of arrest. [More - Al Jazeera] ...

Trump’s Geopolitical Threats and Wildfire in California Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines from the US today. 🇺🇸 **President-elect Trump held a very wide-ranging press conference Tuesday full of geopolitical threats and declarations **including: Refusing to rule out using force to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland Continuing to suggest that Canada should join the US Promising to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America How much of this is posturing and how much is sincere remains unclear but it is a reminder of how much geopolitical uncertainty and turbulence will emanate from the incoming administration. [More - Axios] ...

Happy New Year! Andrew Sheves Good morning and a Happy New Year from windy Washington, DC. Wishing you a successful, safe and fulfilling 2025. Just the numbers and regional info today and tomorrow, but the full SITREP will be back on Friday and next week I’ll be sharing the 2025 look-ahead. Key Metrics WTI is $70.38 (Down) Low |— < —————-| High Wheat is $185.735 (Down) Low |—— < ————-| High ...

Happy Chrismukkah 🎅 🕎 Andrew Sheves Good morning. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to those celebrating. Just the numbers and regional info today. Key Metrics WTI is $71.03 (Down) Low |—- < —————| High Wheat is $185.735 (Down) Low |—— < ————-| High EuroDollar is $1.04 (Down) Low | < ——————-| High YuanDollar is $0.14 (Unchanged) Low |———- < > ———| High Graphs are illustrative to show comparative price over last 180 days ...

Streamlined version Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines to share today, let’s get right to the ratings and news. Commodity and Rate Snapshot 🛢️** Crude Futures (WTI)** $70.52 💵 **USD:EUR ** $1.05 ₿ Bitcoin $104,564 As at Dec 18, 06:00ET -Data is illustrative, not for decision-making. Financial data via Bloomberg, Freightos and AlphaVantage Europe Stability Ratings and News Summary More Unstable 🇦🇱 Albania, 🇧🇾 Belarus, 🇧🇪 Belgium, 🇧🇦 Bosnia And Herzegovina, 🇨🇾 Cyprus, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇬🇷 Greece, 🇭🇺 Hungary, 🇮🇪 Ireland, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇱🇻 Latvia, 🇲🇰 Macedonia, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇲🇩 Moldova, 🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇷🇸 Serbia, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇸🇪 Sweden, 🇨🇭 Switzerland, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom ...

Syria transition continues peacefully and wildfire in CA. Andrew Sheves Good morning. The Syrian opposition continues to establish control of the government in coordination with members of the Assad regime, continuing the surprisingly orderly and measured takeover of power. Isreal is continuing to destroy military installations across the country, reportedly hitting almost 500 sites in the last 48 hours. [SOURCE - AL Jazeera] A significant wildfire, named the Franklin Fire, continues to burn in Malibu County CA, a major suburb of Los Angeles. The suburb is popular with celebrities, and many well-known figures are among those being forced to evacuate. [SOURCE - BBC] [SOURCE - CalFire map] ...

Martial law in Seoul and a Clash in the South China Sea Andrew Sheves Good morning. Citing vague and unspecific concerns about his political opposition, South Korean President Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday. Six hours of chaos and confusion resulted before Parliament and his cabinet forced him to overturn the decree. Yoon now faces impeachment changes that will go to a vote in Seoul’s parliament on Wednesday. [SOURCE - Bloomberg] ...