Oceania

China Returns Boeing Jets, Turkish Earthquake Andrew Sheves Good morning. / 🛫** China Returns Boeing Jets** China has returned Boeing aircraft and halted delivery of 50 more planes in retaliation for Trump’s 145% tariffs. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed two jets have already been sent back with more to follow, forcing the company to seek alternative buyers. Despite the escalation, Trump expressed optimism that tariff levels would “come down substantially.” More - BBC ...

US Stock Plunge After Fed Warning, US-Iran Talks to Continue Saturday Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🔻** US Stocks Plunge After Fed Warning** US markets plunged Wednesday as Powell warned of inflation risks from trade tensions and the Trump administration restricted chip exports to China. Nvidia fell 6.9% facing $5.5 billion in charges while AMD dropped 7.4%, expecting an $800 million writedown, after both companies’ advanced chips were barred from China. The selloff deepened during Powell’s Chicago speech, with the S&P 500 closing down 2.2% and the semiconductor index dropping 4.1%. More - Bloomberg ...

Chinese Troops in Ukraine, Tariffs Pause (For Some…) Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇨🇳** Chinese Soldiers Captured in Ukraine** Ukraine has captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia in the Donetsk region, with President Zelensky claiming intelligence suggests “much higher” numbers of Chinese soldiers in Russia’s forces. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha summoned China’s envoy in Kyiv, stating that Chinese troops on Ukrainian soil “puts into question China’s declared stance for peace.” Beijing responded it was “verifying the relevant situation” while calling Ukraine’s accusation of additional Chinese involvement “groundless,” maintaining that it consistently urges its citizens to avoid armed conflicts. More - BBC ...

‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Annoiuncement: Shock and Ongoing Uncertainty Andrew Sheves Good morning. (C) Bill Waterson Comment - Today’s news will be full of coverage of the immediate effect of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, but three big elements stood out while listening to the ceremony: 1 - The basis for the individual charges was unclear based on the President’s remarks, which included a range of reasons. (Note - The actual calculation released by the USTR is a completely different rationale than the one the President cited and has done little to assuage economists.) ...

Bolsonaro to Stand Trial and Trump Slaps 25% Tariff on Car Imports Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two stories to set you up for the day. 🇧🇷** Brazil Court to Try Bolsonaro** Brazil’s Supreme Court unanimously ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to stand trial on charges of attempting a coup d’état after his 2022 election loss. Bolsonaro faces five criminal charges including allegedly attempting to violently abolish democratic rule of law, with Justice Alexandre de Moraes citing the former president’s “systematic effort to cast doubt on electronic voting machines.” If convicted in proceedings expected later this year, Bolsonaro could receive a lengthy prison sentence, further complicating his declared intention to run for president again despite being barred from public office until 2030. ...

Israel Reenters Gaza, Positive Signs in Ukraine Ceasefire Talks and Emergency Declaration in Nigeria’s Rivers State Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸 Israeli Troops Reenter Gaza Israel initiated a limited ground operation in Gaza, re-establishing control of the Netzarim Corridor to create a buffer between northern and southern regions. Defense Minister Katz issued a “final warning” that Gaza residents would face evacuation from battle zones unless Hamas releases the remaining 59 hostages. This marks the first ground incursion since a six-week ceasefire lapsed earlier this month. More - Bloomberg ...

Moscow Stays Silent on Ukraine Deal, US Shutdown Approaches and Iran Rejects Nuclear Talks Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦 Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow The BBC has a line-by-line breakdown of the proposed peace deal for Ukraine here. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has yet to respond to the proposed deal officially but US mediators head to Moscow soon to discuss the deal with the Russian leader. 🇺🇸 US Government Shutdown Looms ...

US Recession Signals, Fighting Words from China and USAID Cuts Cause Starvation in Sudan Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇸 US Recession Signals Mount JPMorgan’s market-implied probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 17% in November, with some indicators suggesting a 50% chance of economic contraction. The risk assessment comes amid weakening factory activity, declining consumer confidence, and market volatility triggered by Trump’s newly implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. While unemployment remains low at around 4%, economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate a 25% probability of contraction within a year as stagflation concerns grow. More - Bloomberg ...

Upcoming Germany Elections and Cuts at the Pentagon Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick reads this morning. 🇩🇪 German elections taking place this Sunday will determine not only who will lead Europe’s biggest economy, but how influential the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is. Bloomberg has a good overview here. 🇺🇸 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has demanded cuts of $50 billion at the Pentagon and a reordering of US defense priorities. ...

Ukraine 0 - Russia 1 Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦 Ukraine cannot join NATO and must accept territorial losses, according to the US Secretary of Defense whose comments were closely followed by an announcement by President Trump that he and Russia’s Vladimir Putin had met by phone and agreed to start negotiations on Ukraine’s future. Cut out of discussions, NATO allies and Ukrainian leaders were left shocked at the announcements which concede to two of Russia’s main demands before negotiations begin. [More - Bloomberg] ...