SITREP

India - Pakistan Ceasefire, PKK Disarms, US & China Cut Tariffs Andrew Sheves Good morning 🇮🇳** 🇵🇰 India - Pakistan Ceasefire Holds, Talks Planned** India and Pakistan’s US-brokered ceasefire appears to be holding after four days of intense cross-border shelling and aerial attacks that threatened to escalate into full-scale war. India has reopened 32 civilian airports previously closed due to safety concerns, while both nuclear-armed nations claim military victory despite dozens of casualties. Top military officials from both sides are meeting Monday to discuss ceasefire details, with both countries maintaining vigilance and warning against violations. More - BBC ...

India / Pakistan fighting continues, UK trade deal double, and US-China talks this weekend. Plus weekend diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning. (Headlines from me today, not the AI.) 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Fighting between India and Pakistan continues with reports of multiple strikes into both countries, including missile and drone strikes. The situation remains precarious and fast-moving with potential for escalation. Al Jazeera has a live tracker here Graphic: Al Jazeera 🇬🇧 The UK was in a deal-making mood, striking trade deals with India [BBC] and the USA [BBC]. Notably, this was the first deal with President Trump following the imposition of tariffs last month, although the UK has been pursuing a trade deal with the US since Brexit. ...

India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇮🇳** 🇵🇰 India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate** India and Pakistan traded missile strikes and drone attacks following India’s retaliation on Wednesday for the Kashmir militant. Pakistan reports 31 deaths from Indian strikes while India claims 16 civilian casualties from Pakistani shelling, with both sides claiming that they are neutralizing enemy weapons, but the situation is fluid and claims are hard to verify. This BBC Live Tracker is Monitoring the Situation ...

India Strikes Pakistan, Houthis to end Red Sea Strikes, Asia’s Hardline Response to Trump Tariffs Andrew Sheves Good morning. 💥 India Strikes Pakistan India launched targeted strikes against alleged “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir following a deadly April 22 attack that killed 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan denies involvement and claims 26 civilians were killed in the strikes, while threatening retaliation against what Prime Minister Sharif called a “heinous act of aggression.” UN chief Guterres has called for “maximum restraint” as tensions escalate between the nuclear-armed neighbors. More - BBC ...

Israel Plans Mass Civilian Relocation in Gaza, Ukraine Strikes Russia Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇵🇸 Israel Plans Mass Civilian Relocation in Gaza Netanyahu plans intensive military operation in Gaza where Palestinian population “will be moved” for “protection.” The Security Cabinet unanimously approved plans to call up reservists and put Israeli military in charge of aid delivery to the 2.3 million people suffering under blockade. Reports suggest Israel aims for complete “conquest” and occupation of Gaza, potentially including population expulsion while Netanyahu “continues to promote” Trump’s plan for Palestinian departure from the enclave. More - Al Jazeera ...

Nationalist Candidate Leads in Romania, Israel Calls Up Reservists, Kidnapped Peruvian Miners Killed, Albanese Wins Re-election Andrew Sheves Good morning 🇷🇴** Nationalist Candidate Leads Romanian Election** Nationalist George Simion secured 40% in Romania’s presidential election first round, outpacing liberal Nicusor Dan and coalition candidate Crin Antonescu at 21% each. The election rerun follows annulment of previous results over fraud allegations. Despite denying pro-Russian sympathies, Simion’s potential presidency raises concerns about Romania’s strategic NATO role and Ukraine support. More - BBC ...

⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely and Imminent, Turkish Protest Arrests Andrew Sheves Good morning. ⚠️ Indian Attack on Pakistan Seems Likely, Imminent Warnings are circulating that India plans to attack Pakistan in response to last week’s attack on primarily Indian tourists in Kashmir. The attack by The Resistance Front (TRF), militants believed to be an offshoot of Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba, left 26 dead [Al Jazeera Report here] India has a wide range of options from surgical strikes to more conventional shows of force and attacks, but there is no indication of where, when, and how they will respond. ...

US-Ukraine Minerals Deal, China’s Domestic Economic Pressures. Plus we’re relaunching deep dives (with an upgrade) Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦** US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Signed** Ukraine and the US signed an agreement to establish the “United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund” for joint investment in Ukraine’s natural resources, marking a diplomatic victory for Kyiv which rewrote the deal after initially refusing to sign. The revised agreement removes language requiring Ukraine to reimburse Washington for past military aid and includes provisions protecting Ukraine from violating EU laws, though Trump’s frustration grows over the three-week delay in signing. The largely symbolic deal offers no concrete security guarantees but signals “long-term strategic alignment” between the countries. More - Washington Post ...

Carney, Liberals Win in Canada, Gaza Fighting Grinds On Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇨🇦** Carney, Liberals Win in Canada** Carney’s Liberals won a projected 169 seats, short of the 172 needed for a majority, requiring cooperation with other parties as he navigates US trade tariffs and domestic issues. Meanwhile, the previous favorite, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, lost his Commons seat. Tension with the US remains as the White House controversially commented that the election “does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state,” a scenario Carney told the BBC would “never, ever happen.” More - BBC ...

Spain, Portugal Blackout, Ceasefire in the DRC Andrew Sheves Good morning, 🇪🇸** 🇵🇹 Blackout Hits Spain and Portugal** A massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal on Monday, reaching the 12-hour mark with only 50% of supply restored and no clear cause identified despite losing 15 gigawatts in just five seconds. Spanish PM Sanchez warned of a “long night ahead” while declaring a state of emergency in eight regions, as the unprecedented blackout stranded 35,000 train passengers and raised questions about grid stability amid Europe’s renewable energy transition. Portugal’s PM Montenegro expected full restoration within hours. More - Bloomberg ...