SITREP

New President in Gabon, 30+ Killed in Russian Missile Strike in Ukraine and Israel Hits Gaza’s Last Hospital. Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. 🇬🇦 Gabon Coup Leader Wins Presidency General Brice Oligui Nguema has won Gabon’s presidential election with an overwhelming 90.4% of votes, solidifying his grip on power nearly two years after overthrowing his cousin Ali Bongo. Campaigning on promises to reduce youth unemployment through economic diversification beyond oil dependency, Nguema has pledged to grow GDP by 7% annually while adding domestic value to the country’s natural resources. Despite his promises to attract foreign investment, Nguema has taken steps to increase state control over the economy, including using preemptive rights to block the sale of Assala Energy and taking controlling stakes in timber operations. Investors remain concerned about Gabon’s widening budget deficit, which the IMF expects to reach 6.5% of GDP this year with public debt climbing to 80% of GDP. More - Bloomberg ...

Gaza Buffer Zones Expand, US Markets Resume Losses Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend. 🇵🇸** Israel Expands Gaza Buffer Zones** Israel will expand its “security zones” in Gaza to include Rafah and surrounding areas, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz during a visit to troops deployed between Rafah and Khan Younis. Katz stated the military is deliberately leaving Gaza “smaller” and “more isolated” to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining hostages, adding that “all of Rafah will be evacuated and turned into a security area.” The UN reports that approximately two-thirds of Gaza is now designated as “no-go” zones or under evacuation orders since Israel resumed its offensive in March, with 390,000 Palestinians displaced once again and humanitarian aid deliveries blocked since March 2. More - BBC ...

Chinese Troops in Ukraine, Tariffs Pause (For Some…) Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇨🇳** Chinese Soldiers Captured in Ukraine** Ukraine has captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia in the Donetsk region, with President Zelensky claiming intelligence suggests “much higher” numbers of Chinese soldiers in Russia’s forces. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha summoned China’s envoy in Kyiv, stating that Chinese troops on Ukrainian soil “puts into question China’s declared stance for peace.” Beijing responded it was “verifying the relevant situation” while calling Ukraine’s accusation of additional Chinese involvement “groundless,” maintaining that it consistently urges its citizens to avoid armed conflicts. More - BBC ...

UN chief Condemns Gaza Blockade and Dozens Killed in Dominican Republic Nightclub Accident Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇸** UN Chief Condemns Gaza Blockade** UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has denounced Israel’s month-long aid blockade of Gaza, calling the territory “a killing field” where “civilians are in an endless death loop.” Guterres rejected Israel’s proposal to control aid deliveries, stating the UN “will not participate in any arrangement that does not fully respect humanitarian principles.” During a visit to El Arish, French President Emmanuel Macron joined Egypt’s President el-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II in calling for an immediate return to a ceasefire as humanitarian conditions deteriorate for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents. More - Aljazeera ...

Algeria Mali Tensions, US Iran Talks (Maybe) Andrew Sheves Good morning 🇩🇿** / 🇲🇱 Algeria-Mali Tensions** Algeria has closed its airspace to all flights from Mali after shooting down a Malian drone near their shared border, escalating diplomatic tensions between the neighbors. Mali accused Algeria of being a “sponsor and exporter of terrorism” and described the drone incident as a “hostile premeditated action,” while Algeria dismissed these allegations as “lacking in seriousness” that “warrant no attention or response.” The dispute has deepened regional instability as Mali fights Tuareg separatists along the northern border, with Mali withdrawing from a regional security grouping and recalling its ambassador from Algeria following the incident. More - BBC ...

Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. ⤵️ Global Market Plunge Continues as Trump Officials Dismiss Tariff Concerns Global markets tumbled Monday as the Trump administration doubled down on its tariff strategy despite the $5.4 trillion selloff last week. Asian shares fell as much as 7.9%, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunging over 10% and Taiwan’s index suffering its worst drop on record. President Trump remained defiant, saying “sometimes you have to take medicine” while Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed recession fears and claimed “the market consistently underestimates Donald Trump.” Trump’s economic team insisted the tariffs will make America “wealthy like never before” despite warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Powell about higher inflation and economists predicting a recession. Even Trump supporter Bill Ackman criticized the policy, warning “the president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe.” More - Bloomberg ...

US Tariffs Cause Market Drops and Israel Expands Territorial Control in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick headlines before you head into the weekend. 🔻** Liberation Day Causes Markets to Plunge** US stocks suffered their worst plunge since the pandemic, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% and erasing $2.5 trillion in value as Trump’s new tariffs sparked recession fears. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, with tech giants like Apple (-9%), Tesla, and Nvidia taking heavy hits, while retail and manufacturing stocks plummeted—Nike tumbled 14% and luxury furnishing company RH crashed 40%. Bond traders boosted bets on Fed rate cuts as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4%, with analysts warning tariffs could reduce US economic growth by 2 percentage points while pushing inflation to 5%. More - Bloomberg ...

‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Annoiuncement: Shock and Ongoing Uncertainty Andrew Sheves Good morning. (C) Bill Waterson Comment - Today’s news will be full of coverage of the immediate effect of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, but three big elements stood out while listening to the ceremony: 1 - The basis for the individual charges was unclear based on the President’s remarks, which included a range of reasons. (Note - The actual calculation released by the USTR is a completely different rationale than the one the President cited and has done little to assuage economists.) ...

China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan, Liberation Day Arrives but Details Still Shrouded in Secrecy, Chinese FM Visits Moscow Andrew Sheves Good morning. We had a great response to yesterday’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. Thanks for all the kind notes. (In case you missed it, the full announcement is here) Three headlines to start your day. 🇹🇼 China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan ...

Le Pen Barred from Politics, Uncertainty over Liberation Day Tariffs and Haggis Hunt Disruption. Andrew Sheves Good morning and happy April Fool’s Day. I’m glad to say the big announcement below is 100% real…. But first, some headlines to get you started. 🇫🇷 Le Pen Barred From Public Office Marine Le Pen has been barred from holding public office for five years after being found guilty of embezzling EU funds, likely eliminating her from the 2027 French presidential race. While she plans to appeal, this verdict throws her National Rally party into disarray, with 29-year-old Jordan Bardella potentially becoming the alternative candidate. The ruling could initially boost support among her base who view it as systemic persecution but may weaken the party’s long-term prospects. More - BBC ...