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‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Annoiuncement: Shock and Ongoing Uncertainty Andrew Sheves Good morning. (C) Bill Waterson Comment - Today’s news will be full of coverage of the immediate effect of the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, but three big elements stood out while listening to the ceremony: 1 - The basis for the individual charges was unclear based on the President’s remarks, which included a range of reasons. (Note - The actual calculation released by the USTR is a completely different rationale than the one the President cited and has done little to assuage economists.) ...

China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan, Liberation Day Arrives but Details Still Shrouded in Secrecy, Chinese FM Visits Moscow Andrew Sheves Good morning. We had a great response to yesterday’s announcement of our partnership with HumanRisks and are excited to build out our joint offering together. Thanks for all the kind notes. (In case you missed it, the full announcement is here) Three headlines to start your day. 🇹🇼 China Simulates Attacks on Taiwan ...

Le Pen Barred from Politics, Uncertainty over Liberation Day Tariffs and Haggis Hunt Disruption. Andrew Sheves Good morning and happy April Fool’s Day. I’m glad to say the big announcement below is 100% real…. But first, some headlines to get you started. 🇫🇷 Le Pen Barred From Public Office Marine Le Pen has been barred from holding public office for five years after being found guilty of embezzling EU funds, likely eliminating her from the 2027 French presidential race. While she plans to appeal, this verdict throws her National Rally party into disarray, with 29-year-old Jordan Bardella potentially becoming the alternative candidate. The ruling could initially boost support among her base who view it as systemic persecution but may weaken the party’s long-term prospects. More - BBC ...

Eid Attacks in Gaza, Over 1,700 Feared Dead in Myanmar Leading to Calls for Ceasefire Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. Sadly, some grim headlines to start the week. 🇵🇸** Gaza Eid Attacks** Israeli airstrikes killed at least 35 Palestinians during Eid al-Fitr celebrations in Rafah and Khan Younis as Netanyahu maintained demands for Hamas to disarm and leave Gaza. The Palestine Red Crescent recovered 15 medical workers’ bodies following an Israeli attack, while humanitarian conditions deteriorate with aid deliveries halted since early March and ceasefire prospects appearing remote. More - Al Jazeera ...

Myanmar Earthquake. New Details on Ukrainian Minerals Deal, Arctic Cooperation Offer and N Korea’s S Andrew Sheves Good morning. Breaking - Massive Earthquake Hits Myanmar A powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar earlier today, causing widespread damage. Strong tremors were felt in neighboring Vietnam and Thailand, and at least one building collapsed in Bangkok. Myanmar is closed to foreign press making reporting difficult but the BBC has a Live Feed here ...

Bolsonaro to Stand Trial and Trump Slaps 25% Tariff on Car Imports Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two stories to set you up for the day. 🇧🇷** Brazil Court to Try Bolsonaro** Brazil’s Supreme Court unanimously ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to stand trial on charges of attempting a coup d’état after his 2022 election loss. Bolsonaro faces five criminal charges including allegedly attempting to violently abolish democratic rule of law, with Justice Alexandre de Moraes citing the former president’s “systematic effort to cast doubt on electronic voting machines.” If convicted in proceedings expected later this year, Bolsonaro could receive a lengthy prison sentence, further complicating his declared intention to run for president again despite being barred from public office until 2030. ...

Black Sea Ceasefire and Anti-Hamas Protests in Gaza Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two headlines for you today. 🇺🇦 Black Sea Ceasefire Deal Russia and Ukraine agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea through separate deals with the US after three days of peace talks in Saudi Arabia. Russia stipulated the ceasefire would only take effect after sanctions against its food and fertilizer trade are lifted, while Ukraine’s Zelensky called the agreement “a step in the right direction” but warned his country would seek further sanctions if Moscow violates its commitments. Both sides also agreed to develop measures implementing a ban on attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, though accusations of violations emerged shortly after the announcement. More - BBC ...

One week out from US ‘Liberation Day’ and Burundi Accuses Rwanda of Attack Plot Andrew Sheves Good morning. Next Wednesday is ‘Liberation Day’: the day when the off-again, on-again US tariffs are imposed across the board but the administration continues to change and adjust what is or is not potentially being targeted so this Bloomberg tracker is very useful. Meanwhile, in addition to the complexities of reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is also threatening ‘secondary tariffs’. ...

Stability Ratings, Protests in Turkey, Canada’s Election set for April 28, and External and Internal Tensions In Israel Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. Three headlines to help you catch up quickly. 🇹🇷 ** Anti-Government Protests Sweep Turkey** There were enormous protests across Turkey all weekend following last week’s arrest of Istanbul’s Mayopr and prominent opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu. The charges are viewed by many as fabricated, with the main aim of preventing Imamoglu — a popular leader — from participating in upcoming elections. [More - AlJazeera] ...

Government Retakes Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Heathrow Closure, Hamas Rockets Target Israel Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇸🇩 Government Forces Retake Presidential Palace in Khartoum Sudanese government forces have retaken the Presidential Palace in Khartoum but the opposition Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still control large parts of the Sudanese capital. [Live coverage - BBC] 🛬 Heathrow Shuts Down After Nearby Fire London Heathrow Airport faces unprecedented closure after a nearby electrical substation fire cut power to the hub, forcing cancellations of over 1,300 flights and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. British Airways alone will see 677 flights impacted, and there are likely to be widespread knock-on travel delays for days. More - Bloomberg ...