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Stability ratings, anti-government protests in Belgrade, Yemen Strikes and Mass Deportations from USA Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. Three headlines from the weekend. 🇷🇸 Huge Anti-Government Protests in Belgrade Serbia witnessed its largest-ever protest as up to 325,000 people rallied in Belgrade against the government following a railway station collapse that killed 15 people last November. The massive demonstration, organized as “15th for 15,” brought together students, taxi drivers, farmers, and military veterans demanding accountability for the disaster at Novi Sad station, which many blame on corruption during renovation work personally inaugurated by President Aleksandar Vucic. Despite multiple resignations including the Prime Minister’s, protesters insist none of their demands for transparency and justice have been fully met. More - BBC ...

Work Still to be Done on Ukraine Peace Deal, US Shutdown Averted and Weekend Diversions Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two stories to help you stay up on top of things. 🇺🇦 US negotiator Steve Witkoff met with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss the Ukraine peace deal last night to discuss the proposed ceasefire deal. Putin reportedly “expressed solidarity” with President Trump’s position but had “voiced a number of questions that need to be answered together… There’s still a lot ahead to be done”. [BBC Live Coverage] ...

Moscow Stays Silent on Ukraine Deal, US Shutdown Approaches and Iran Rejects Nuclear Talks Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦 Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow The BBC has a line-by-line breakdown of the proposed peace deal for Ukraine here. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has yet to respond to the proposed deal officially but US mediators head to Moscow soon to discuss the deal with the Russian leader. 🇺🇸 US Government Shutdown Looms ...

Train Siege in Pakistan, EU Hits Back with Tariffs and a Ukraine Peace Deal Heads to Moscow Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇰** Train Siege in Pakistan** Security forces have freed over 100 passengers from a militant train attack in Pakistan’s Balochistan region, killing at least 17 attackers in an ongoing operation. The Baloch Liberation Army seized the Jaffar Express carrying more than 400 passengers, threatening to kill hostages if authorities did not release Baloch political prisoners within 48 hours. Rescue operations continue in the remote Sibi district where the train remains surrounded by mountains. More - BBC ...

Duterte Arrested, Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume Amidst Moscow Drone Blitz, and US Markets Plunge Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇵🇭 Breaking* Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manilla in response to an ICC warrant alleging human rights abuses during his time as President. [More - BBC]* Two headlines to kick off your Tuesday 🇺🇦 Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Resume in Saudi U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed optimism about Ukraine’s partial ceasefire proposal ahead of crucial talks in Saudi Arabia, calling it “the kind of concession needed to end the conflict.” Ukraine is expected to propose an aerial and naval truce during negotiations between Ukrainian officials and U.S. representatives including Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The talks follow President Trump’s suspension of military aid to pressure Kyiv toward peace negotiations, with Rubio indicating aid could resume if Ukraine demonstrates commitment to a diplomatic solution. President Zelensky met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday but will not participate directly in Tuesday’s discussions. More - BBC ...

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. Three headlines from the weekend. (A summary of all of last week’s big stories is the in audio summary below.) 🇨🇦 Carney Elected as Canadian Prime Minister Former central banker Mark Carney won the Liberal Party leadership race with 85.9% of the vote and will become Canada’s prime minister within days amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The incoming leader faces immediate challenges from Trump’s chaotic tariff policies, including imminent 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports and threats against Canadian lumber and dairy products. Carney, who positioned himself as an experienced crisis manager, pledged to find new export markets and scrap planned capital gains tax increases while warning “no way” to Trump’s suggestion of making Canada “the 51st state.” More - Bloomberg ...

Assad Loyalists Ambush Syrian Security Forces and Europe Rearmament Plans Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two stories to help you stay up on top of things. 🇸🇾 Assad Loyalists Ambush Regime forces Assad loyalists killed 15 Syrian security personnel in ambushes near Jableh, marking one of the biggest security challenges for the new government since Assad’s fall three months ago. The interim government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has dispatched military reinforcements from multiple provinces to secure the Alawite-dominated coastal region. Security forces claim to have killed and captured several attackers from the newly announced “coastal shield regiment” led by Assad-era commander Suhail al-Hassan. Officials have imposed a curfew in Tartous as authorities struggle to consolidate control over the Mediterranean coastal regions. More - Al Jazeera ...

US Recession Signals, Fighting Words from China and USAID Cuts Cause Starvation in Sudan Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇸 US Recession Signals Mount JPMorgan’s market-implied probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 17% in November, with some indicators suggesting a 50% chance of economic contraction. The risk assessment comes amid weakening factory activity, declining consumer confidence, and market volatility triggered by Trump’s newly implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. While unemployment remains low at around 4%, economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate a 25% probability of contraction within a year as stagflation concerns grow. More - Bloomberg ...

Trade Wars Kick Off and an Alternate Plan for Gaza from the Middle East Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🏴‍☠️ Trade War(s) Kick Off In response to US tariffs, Canada refused to concede to American pressure and responded with reciprocal measures. China and Mexico have also vowed retaliatory measures to come soon. However, by evening, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs could be lifted as early as Wednesday, deepening confusion. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Tariffs Kick In, Oil Production Increase and Gaza Ceasefire in Danger Andrew Sheves Good morning. Three quick headlines worth tracking. **President Trump Confirms Canada, Mexico and Chinese Tariffs. ** 🛑 Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect Tuesday, with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, sending U.S. stock indexes sharply lower. Canada called the tariffs “an existential threat” with thousands of jobs at stake, while all three countries have promised retaliatory measures. The president dismissed economic concerns, suggesting foreign manufacturers should “build their car plants in the United States”. More - BBC ...