SITREP

US Recession Signals, Fighting Words from China and USAID Cuts Cause Starvation in Sudan Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇸 US Recession Signals Mount JPMorgan’s market-implied probability of a recession has jumped to 31% from 17% in November, with some indicators suggesting a 50% chance of economic contraction. The risk assessment comes amid weakening factory activity, declining consumer confidence, and market volatility triggered by Trump’s newly implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. While unemployment remains low at around 4%, economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate a 25% probability of contraction within a year as stagflation concerns grow. More - Bloomberg ...

Trade Wars Kick Off and an Alternate Plan for Gaza from the Middle East Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🏴‍☠️ Trade War(s) Kick Off In response to US tariffs, Canada refused to concede to American pressure and responded with reciprocal measures. China and Mexico have also vowed retaliatory measures to come soon. However, by evening, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs could be lifted as early as Wednesday, deepening confusion. [More - Bloomberg] ...

Tariffs Kick In, Oil Production Increase and Gaza Ceasefire in Danger Andrew Sheves Good morning. Three quick headlines worth tracking. **President Trump Confirms Canada, Mexico and Chinese Tariffs. ** 🛑 Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect Tuesday, with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods, sending U.S. stock indexes sharply lower. Canada called the tariffs “an existential threat” with thousands of jobs at stake, while all three countries have promised retaliatory measures. The president dismissed economic concerns, suggesting foreign manufacturers should “build their car plants in the United States”. More - BBC ...

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. Here are this week’s stability ratings and the audio review of last week’s stories. Reminder: this audio is an AI-summary of last week’s reports. AI can make mistakes — particularly in the subtleties of International relations — so please review any situation carefully before you make major decisions. **Want to include these ratings in your own system? ** ...

Stability ratings and an audio wrap up of last week’s big events Andrew Sheves ** In partnership with ** ](https://magic.beehiiv.com/v1/4d03390d-2481-4299-b949-ffd8b38b4c38?email={{email}}&utm_campaign=XO7DWEQZLV&redirect_to=https%3A%2F%2Fsubscribe.therundown.ai%2F%3Fform%3Dopen&redirect_delay=1&_gl=11qqix25_gcl_auMTYwNDc0Mjg2OC4xNzI5NTMyNjYw_gaMTk2YzU4MDctZGFlZi00MjQ3LWIzZDYtYTQ1MTUwMmJiZTQ0_ga_E6Y4WLQ2EC*MTczMjUxMTg2Ny4yNTkzLjEuMTczMjUxMzM4My42MC4wLjE4NTk3NDE3MTE.&bhiiv=opp_fba53f81-2740-4c36-96fe-60e793d15369_e4221c46&bhcl_id=14f77182-d5a5-40e8-8698-8ce5dd413558_SUBSCRIBER_ID{{email_address_id}}) Happy Monday. As I mentioned on Friday, I’m switching the SITREP format and will be trying a couple of different schedules over the next few weeks. Mondays will always be the complete stability ratings overview but today I’m also including an audio brief summarizing last week’s news. This gives you a quick overview of the main events from the last seven days to prep you for the week ahead. ...

SITREP changes and an AI talk this weekend Andrew Sheves Good morning. No headlines today but a quick announcement on some upcoming changes to the SITREPs. Our mission at Decis is simple: to provide you with a tailored, focused report on what’s relevant to you to help you adapt and respond quickly. And given that we can produce these reports up to 100x faster that the alternatives and customize down to the individual level, I like to think we’re pretty good* at it. ...

Upcoming Germany Elections and Cuts at the Pentagon Andrew Sheves Good morning. Two quick reads this morning. 🇩🇪 German elections taking place this Sunday will determine not only who will lead Europe’s biggest economy, but how influential the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is. Bloomberg has a good overview here. 🇺🇸 US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has demanded cuts of $50 billion at the Pentagon and a reordering of US defense priorities. ...

Ukraine’s Worst Day Since the Russian Invasion Andrew Sheves Good morning. 🇺🇦 Yesterday was the most consequential day for Ukraine since the Russian invasion three years ago. US statements after the talks between the US and Russia did little to push back Russia’s demands that Ukraine cede any territory held by Russia, would not join NATO and that no foreign troops be stationed in the country. But the real damage came at a press conference Tuesday afternoon when President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war, attacked President Zelenskyy personally, and demanded that presidential elections take place as part of any peace deal. Trump and Zelenskyy have had a difficult relationship but this is the most hostile Trump has been towards the Ukrainian leader and this seems to cement Zelenskyy’s exclusion from negotiations. [More - Politico] ...

Ukraine Peace Talks Begin In Riyadh, Minus Ukraine Andrew Sheves Good morning. The US and Russian foreign ministers are meeting in Riyadh to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. The meetings will set the scene for future discussions but have deliberately excluded European and Ukrainian participants. [More - BBC] Comment - These talks are taking place on the heels of last week’s comments by the US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, that Ukraine would have to concede land already held by Russia and that NATO membership was off the table. Meanwhile, US documents sent to Kyiv appear to demand significant reparations be paid to the US without any meaningful security guarantees in return. The framing of these negotiations is shocking European capitals — a feature, not a bug, of the US approach — but significantly weaken Europe, threaten to bankrupt Ukraine, and undercut trust in the US and the NATO alliance. A deal on these terms will be less Winston Churchillian and more Neville Chamberlain. ...

M23 expands in Congo and European Leaders Convene Emergency Security Talks Andrew Sheves Happy Monday. 🇨🇩 M23 rebels captured the city of Bukavu, the second largest city in eastern Congo, strengthening their hold on the region. Mediation talks sponsored by the African Union are ongoing but making little progress. [More - BBC] 🇪🇺 European leaders are convening an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss European Security. These talks follow last week’s comments from US officials and President Trump announcing that he was unilaterally staring peace talks on Ukraine with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. [More - Politico] ...